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Crypto momentum is waking up.
$BTC above $80K is pulling risk back into the market, with $ETH and $SOL joining the move. Hyperliquid and Stellar are also showing strength as liquidity returns.
But the real test is next: can alts keep running without Bitcoin losing support?
I’m watching volume, resistance, and macro closely.
#WalshPolicyFramework #IranOpensHormuzLane #GoldVsBTCETFFlows "Waller's Night Banquet at Jackson Hole: Hawkish Talk, Dovish Action"
Waller takes the stage tonight with a set script: hawkish rhetoric in words, no rate hikes in action—it's an election year, who dares to really poke the interest rate hornet's nest? Most likely, he'll play the "debt swap magic," exchanging long-term debt for short-term debt to suppress long-end yields, then after the election, stage the "rate cut timing is ripe" act.
Market signals: ETF funds for BTC and ETH continue net inflows, with buying pressure holding strong; U.S. stocks are internally divided, Nvidia stands alone, AI smaller players are already weak. If AI can't drive momentum, overflow funds might rush into the crypto space to stir things up.
Short-term script: BTC and ETH will first undergo a shakeout to clear floating positions, then leverage policy expectations plus incremental funds to push upward.
⚠️ Risk: Macro speeches are even more volatile than predecessors' promises; the above is pure speculation, please prepare quick-acting heart medicine for your trades.
$BTC $SOL
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Just now, mysterious funds dropped 21 million euros! After this French company received the money, the first thing it did was to buy Bitcoin... With this batch of funds landing, its potential total holdings will rise to 3,415 BTC. In the current crypto asset narrative, this position is already enough to make it a highly benchmarked “Bitcoin proxy stock” in the European market. French listed company Capital B raised 21 million euros through a directed share issuance (ABSA) and increased its Bitcoin holdings, essentially replicating the U.S. stock MicroStrategy’s “equity financing—coin hoarding—market cap expansion” capital flywheel. This is far from an ordinary announcement; it is another landmark event of the European capital market incorporating Bitcoin into the core treasury assets of enterprises. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Institutional funds currently dominate; identifying sector rotation quality from the perspective of capital structure
BTC remains the ballast stone of the entire market, determining the overall market safety cushion; ETH is used to gauge the risk appetite of institutions versus retail investors. When $BTC enters a high-level consolidation phase without continuous unilateral rallies, focus should be on whether funds continue to cluster at the top or are willing to spread out into niche sectors. This round focuses on tracking the directions of liquid staking + on-chain real yields + derivative tools to observe the possibility of collective sector rallies.
🟠BTC｜Market foundation and institutional capital benchmark
🔵ETH｜Risk appetite calibration scale
🟣LDO｜Leader in liquid staking
🟢EIGEN｜Core of the re-staking sector
Two sets of observation criteria to identify effective rotation
First, look at relative strength and capital background.
Do not only watch BTC price fluctuations; focus on whether the ETH/BTC ratio can steadily rise, while also observing if spot ETF funds maintain continuous net inflows. A rising price ratio combined with sustained institutional capital inflows is the prerequisite for opening risk appetite; if the rise is merely driven by contract leverage pulses, the sustainability of the market will be greatly reduced.
Second, distinguish between independent speculation and sector resonance.
Avoid chasing single-day violent rallies of individual tokens; many token surges are just short-term switches of existing funds. Real sector opportunities require multiple targets within the sector to simultaneously increase volume, on-chain business data to improve synchronously, rather than relying solely on news-driven stimuli.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $6.4 billion in options have settled, BTC didn't crash: The real directional choice is at 22:00 tonight
BTC surged to around 81,500 last night then pulled back to 80,000, indicating that selling pressure between 81,200 and 81,500 remains heavy, but there is also support below.
More importantly, about $6.44 billion in BTC options have settled today. With 81,700 contracts and a maximum pain point around 68,000–70,000, the spot price was not dragged to the so-called "pain point," proving again that the maximum pain point is not necessarily a price target.
Now the only real variable left is 22:00 tonight—the debut of Wash at Jackson Hole.
If the speech is hawkish and US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen in sync, BTC could fall below 79,000 and may need to defend 78,000 or even 76,800; if the tone is restrained and 80,000 is regained with volume, the market still has a chance to challenge 81,500 again.
The derivative pressure this afternoon has been released; the macro pricing tonight is the main event. No need to rush into the first spike—wait for US Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC to give the same direction. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 🇨🇳 BTC is currently hovering around $78,000
The current market panic is more due to BTC falling back from the $81,250 high rather than a clear trend reversal in the market.
In my view, this looks more like a normal capital rotation and profit-taking after a rapid rise.
BTC has temporarily pulled back after the surge, but institutional funds have not significantly withdrawn. Recently, spot ETFs still maintain inflows, indicating that the core market demand remains.
📌 So what really needs attention now is not a single pullback, but whether funds are continuously exiting.
If ETF inflows continue and BTC can stabilize in the key support area, then this pullback may just be a normal correction within an uptrend.
🔥 Price pullback ≠ trend reversal.
Next key focus: whether BTC can regain and hold above $80K, and whether institutional fund inflows can continue.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware
#BTCOptionsExpiryTestAt 10 PM tonight, the real test for BTC arrives: 9 consecutive days of capital inflow—can it withstand the Wash test?
A significant signal is emerging in the crypto market: On August 27, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $242 million, and the ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $235 million, both marking the 9th consecutive trading day of net inflows. The capital flow indicates that institutional support has not noticeably waned despite BTC approaching the $80,000 mark.
But the real factor deciding short-term volatility tonight is Wash.
Inflation remains above the 2% target, multiple Fed officials continue to warn of inflation risks, and the dollar remains near a one-week high. The market needs to judge whether Wash will continue to emphasize "higher rates for longer" or leave room for future policy easing.
Key BTC levels to watch:
**Holding above 80,000:** Continue to challenge 81,200–81,500;
**Breaking previous highs:** Further observe 84,000 above;
**Falling below 78,000:** Short-term structure weakens, first look for support near 76,800.
So don’t just focus on the first spike tonight.
ETF inflows determine if there’s money to catch the downside; Wash determines if capital dares to push higher. The true direction depends on macro expectations and spot capital giving the same answer. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
NVIDIA and Marvell continue to validate the rigid demand for hardware computing power and network connectivity. Marvell's revenue surged 37% year-over-year, and its guidance for the next quarter also exceeded Wall Street expectations. But the more intriguing signals come from the software side: CrowdStrike's quarterly revenue grew 26%, net new annual recurring revenue soared 51% to $333 million, and it raised its full-year outlook. Salesforce and Okta also won a surge in market performance with solid results and improved guidance.
Putting these data points together releases an extremely critical turning signal.
The market discussion focus has completely shifted from whether AI demand exists to who can truly convert AI investment into new orders, recurring revenue, and free cash flow.
In the previous phase, as long as a company was associated with the AI concept, hardware shipments could drive a market frenzy—this was a crude expectation race. But today, investors no longer treat all AI stocks equally. Hardware procurement always faces the pulse and digestion of capital expenditure cycles, while once the software side forms subscription stickiness based on workflows and security entry points, it brings a growth curve that is far more stable and lasting than one-time hardware purchases.
The next phase to truly enjoy valuation premiums will not be companies with AI visions written all over their PPTs, but those commercial winners who can consistently generate real cash flow on the books.
After reviewing this round of earnings, do you think the main capital flow in the second half of the year will accelerate the rotation from hardware to software?No surprise from PCE, so why did BTC still drop?
Before the data release, the market had already priced in the scenario of "moderate inflation and expected rate cuts." Core PCE stayed flat at 3.3%, and consumption even exceeded expectations — the economy hasn't collapsed, so rate cuts can't come quickly. With expectations unmet, funds naturally took profits first.
Additionally, the contract leverage artificially pushed a false breakout at 81,500, which spot couldn't hold at all, so the surge and subsequent pullback was inevitable.
From a technical perspective, there is support in the 78,000-78,500 range, and a stronger chip zone at 77,000-77,500. As long as this area isn't broken, the structure remains intact.
What do you think about Jackson Hole tonight? Is Wash leaning hawkish or dovish? Is your position set according to this expectation?
$BTC Global markets are entering a critical pricing moment tonight. Fed Chair Kevin War will deliver his first core speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. Currently, BTC is hovering around $80,000, and the US Treasury market is highly sensitive. Gold, US stocks, and crypto assets are all waiting for the same answer: Facing persistent inflation, how long is the Fed prepared to tolerate? The latest July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, core PCE remained at 3.3%, still clearly above the 2% target. After the data was released, interest rate futures pushed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September from about 36% to 44%. Meanwhile, Fed officials such as Schmid and Hammack have recently sent hawkish signals, indicating that the internal debate over "whether further tightening is needed" has not ended. Therefore, I believe tonight's benchmark script is not a "sudden dovish," but more likely: hawkish wording but no clear promise of rate hikes. Wash needs to maintain the Fed's credibility in fighting inflation, but may not be willing to lock in the September policy path early. The market really needs to watch five things: (1) Does he believe the current rate of 3.50%-3.75% is enough to contain the economy;
(2) Whether the trigger conditions for another rate hike have been clearly stated;
(3) How to evaluate the recent rapid rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields;
(4) Whether to continue reducing forward-looking guidance;
(5) Among inflation, employment, and growth, who will have the highest policy weight in the next phase? Reuters pointed out that since Walsh took office three months ago, he has adopted a "less is more" approach, and tonight's greatest pressure#AIShiftsToSoftware AI hardware proved companies are willing to spend. Software now has to prove they're willing to pay. Strong results from CrowdStrike, Salesforce and Okta suggest monetization may finally be moving beyond GPUs and data centers into recurring software revenue.
That's important because infrastructure built the AI boom, but applications need to create the returns. If ARR, margins and FCF keep improving, the next AI winners may be the companies monetizing compute, not selling itThe market suddenly accelerated and fell sharply. BTC and ETH plunged simultaneously. At times like this, the first thing that often appears in the group isn't analysis, but two words: Run? But the more suddenly accelerated the market, the less I want to make decisions based on emotions right away. Because you have to first understand: is this a trend reversal, or is it a concentrated risk release? BTC just went through a very fierce rally. Don't forget, BTC had previously surged from about $62,000 all the way above $80,000, completing an extremely exaggerated rebound in just one week. Last night, it even reached around $81,280. After such a rapid rally, a sharp drop is not surprising. What really matters is that this rally is not entirely a "new bulls entering the market frantically." Data shows that during BTC's rise, futures open interest actually dropped to a nearly five-month low. This means that a large part of the previous rally was driven by short closing + short liquidation. This is what we often call short squeeze. Bears are forced to buy back, prices rise rapidly, triggering more short stop-losses, ultimately forming a continuous rise. But this also raises the question: once the expected short positions have basically been blown out, who will continue to chase? So in today's downward trend, I believe at least three forces exist simultaneously. First: 80,000–81,000 is itself a pressure zone. After BTC surged above 80,000, it did not truly achieve a valid breakout. What the market really needs to overcome now is,What truly determines BTC's direction tonight is not how hawkish Waller is, but whether long-term U.S. Treasury yields can be suppressed.
Jackson Hole has entered a critical moment; the real "pricing anchor" for global assets is no longer just the policy interest rate, but the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields.
Recently, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly rose to about 5.3%, the highest since 2007. Long-term financing costs are directly suppressing valuations of tech stocks, gold, and crypto assets.
Tonight, focus on two scenarios:
**Optimistic:** Waller remains hawkish on inflation but acknowledges that current financial conditions are sufficient to restrain it and ease pressure on long-term rates. If the 10-year and 30-year yields fall together, the dollar weakens, and BTC reclaims $80,000, there is a chance to challenge $82,000–$85,000.
**Pessimistic:** Policy communication fails, the market continues to price in "higher rates for longer," the 10-year yield returns above 4.7%, the 30-year pushes back to 5.3%, and high-duration tech stocks and BTC may face concentrated profit-taking.
So don’t just watch BTC tonight.
What Waller says is superficial; how Treasury yields move is the real answer for the market. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SNDK
Just now, we were talking about South Korea's KOSPI hitting a historic high
Then suddenly KOSPI dropped
Tech has been constantly releasing good news these days
Sometimes Nvidia exploded
Sometimes Okta and CrowdStrike exploded again
Sometimes South Korea's KOSPI hit a historic high again
Damn, with so many tech positives coming out
Logically, these AI chip sellers in South Korea should collectively take off, right?
But they didn't
South Korean investors thought it would take off today
So why is it still falling?
South Korea's KOSPI weakened today
At one point in the morning session, it fell below 6900
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also retreated
I now seriously suspect
All those positives earlier were just manipulations by big players to cut this wave of retail investors 😂
But we also need to reflect
Why?
It feels like the beautiful prospects of AI
Suddenly cooled down
This shows the market is starting to doubt whether AI capital expenditure can keep surging
Funds collectively fled the Korean tech stock sector
This indicates one thing
The market is no longer easily excited
AI is indeed impressive
But has the stock price already peaked ahead of time? 😂
Once this news came out
Storage tokens like SanDisk and on-chain AI concept coins will directly face pressure
SanDisk has been dropping like crazy these past two days
The market has been acting like a lunatic these days
#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙 Shorted at the 81500 resistance level, successfully captured the wave pullback profit
On the 4-hour chart,$BTC repeatedly tested the previous high at 81520, facing continuous resistance. The bullish momentum gradually weakened as the upper Bollinger Band formed strong suppression. The price touched the high multiple times but failed to break through effectively.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #AIShiftsToSoftware The latest earnings season suggests that AI monetization is expanding from hardware into enterprise software. Nvidia’s strong results confirmed continued demand for computing infrastructure, but Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta also delivered better-than-expected results. Salesforce raised its full-year revenue guidance, while CrowdStrike highlighted stronger demand for protecting AI systems and Okta reported dozens of deals involving AI-agent identity security.
This broadening matters because the AI investment cycle cannot depend permanently on chip purchases alone. Businesses must eventually earn returns through software, automation, security and customer-facing applications. The strongest platforms may successfully replace traditional per-user pricing with charges based on agent activity or completed work. However, investors should separate genuine recurring revenue from temporary enthusiasm. Software companies still need to prove that AI products improve customer retention, margins and cash flow rather than simply increasing computing expenses.Net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with over $3 billion accumulated in August — the $BTC ETF's capital curve is drawing a textbook-level upward trend.
On August 28, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $242.3 million, extending the consecutive net inflow record to the 9th trading day. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $277.6 million in a single day, leading the inflows, followed by Ark's ARKB with $29.7 million and Bitwise's BITB with $21.7 million.
Looking at a longer perspective, the numbers are even more impressive. The cumulative inflow over 9 trading days is about $2.8 billion, and the total inflow so far in August has surpassed $3 billion, making it the strongest month since 2026, roughly double the scale of April. The total net assets have risen to $100.9 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow reaching $54.832 billion.
The relationship with price deserves a separate look. BTC has rallied from around $78,000 to above $81,000 in the past week, with an August gain exceeding 28%. The continuous inflow of ETF funds provides stable buying support but is not the sole driver — short squeeze and improved macro expectations are also simultaneously at work. What truly matters is sustainability: 9 trading days, $2.8 billion, the second strongest monthly performance in history — this is not a retail sentiment-driven spike but institutional capital systematically building positions.
When ETFs shift from "occasional inflows" to "almost daily inflows," the market's pricing logic has been rewritten. On the directional front, there is reason to be more optimistic.$BTC is moving with $XAU, $ETH is still moving with BTC
Lately, I've been feeling more and more strongly that BTC and ETH seem to be taking two different paths.
BTC is becoming less and less related to the US stock market and more and more like gold. The 90-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from 60% at the beginning of the year to 33%, while the correlation with gold has risen from nearly zero to 0.53#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest 现在这盘面，我反而不想继续追着$BTC 喊“突破”。BTC刚冲到 $81,326附近后又回到$80K下方，说明$80K以上的获利盘确实不轻。 但有意思的是，资金并没有明显撤退。 截至现在，全球加密市场总市值约 $2.68T，24小时成交额接近 $99B，而且成交量环比明显放大；稳定币24小时成交额超过 $103B。 更重要的是，BTC现货ETF昨天又流入约 $242M，连续第9天净流入。过去7个交易日累计流入已经达到约 $2.5B。 所以我现在的判断是： 这不是一个“没人接盘的暴拉”，而是一边突破、一边换手。 接下来真正值得看的反而是山寨。 $ETH已经重新站上$2,500附近，如果它能够把这个位置从压力变成支撑，我会开始关注$2,800。ETH整个8月的ETF流入也明显改善，月度流入已经超过$1B。 $SOL则是另一条线。 BTC如果继续在$80K附近横盘，而SOL还能保持强势，这就是资金开始主动寻找Beta的信号。现在市场已经出现资金从BTC向SOL扩散的迹象。 然后我会继续盯： $HYPE——看链上衍生品交易量； $XRP——看ETF和支付叙事； $LINK——看RWA和预言机；Hormuz exports have recovered to 70%! $CL back to 83, how much longer can the geopolitical premium hold?
Brothers, oil tankers in Hormuz are moving again—Kuwait and Qatar's export volumes have recovered to 70% of pre-conflict levels, combined with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, about 7-8 million barrels per day are transported through the strait, higher than the 4 million barrels in mid-July. This is the most direct sign of easing on the supply side.
News of Russia escalating the conflict gave a brief boost, but supply recovery is the dominant force. The geopolitical premium is fading; oil prices can't be sustained by rhetoric alone.
Looking at the K-line: 83.15 is near the Bollinger middle band, MACD shows a death cross, RSI has fallen below 50. Resistance is at 85-86 above, support is at 80-81 below. Short-term bearish bias, but limited room below 80.
Gongming's view: Hormuz recovering 70% is a solid supply return; the Russian conflict can only hedge short-term and won't change the direction. At 83, it's easier to go down than up, but this decline has already covered most of the way, with limited space near 80.
Trading strategy:
Short: enter shorts on rebounds near 84.5-85.
Long: enter longs on pullbacks near 81-81.5.
Remember, the geopolitical premium is dissipating; don't expect it to hold much longer. Follow Zhao Gongming to understand the struggle between geopolitics and supply-demand. #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to pay attention to risks. After entering the stage of deep institutional participation, the market's criteria for evaluating assets no longer rely solely on consensus and narrative, but instead shift toward more pragmatic value capture capabilities. Bitcoin and Ethereum have completely different sources of value. BTC relies on scarcity and reserve asset positioning to capture liquidity premiums, while ETH relies on economic activity within the network ecosystem to capture value. The difference in pricing anchors between the two will continue to widen the gap in volatile market conditions, serving as the core basis for subsequent capital allocation. Bitcoin's value capture logic is very clear: a constant total supply of 21 million coins, deflationary attributes, combined with positioning as a global alternative reserve asset, making it a direct beneficiary of macro liquidity. Continuous ETF inflows are essentially global capital allocation to hedge inflation and diversify asset risk. Institutions do not need BTC to generate cash flow, only for it to be scarce and tradable. When prices fall, long-term allocation funds take over in batches; When prices surge rapidly, institutions take profits based on risk-reward ratios. This behavior pattern makes BTC volatility more rational, with extreme price surges and plunges more moderate than before. Historically, trapped positions above remain short-term pressure, but long-term chip structures remain stable, with strong bottom support for pullbacks. Even if macro liquidity tightens temporarily, BTC's downside will be limited by institutional bottom positions, and its pricing anchor is tied to the risk premium of major global asset classes. Ethereum's value capture logic,Wash's Jackson Hole speech at 10 PM tonight! BTC's critical 80,000 level life-or-death battle, three trend scenarios predicted in advance
At 22:00 tonight, Wash will appear at Jackson Hole. The market's biggest concern: can BTC hold the 80,000 level?
First, clarify the current market anxieties:
Since Wash took office, he directly removed the FOMC forward guidance, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3%, and three Fed officials have supported rate hikes, maximizing policy uncertainty. The industry generally believes: this speech is unlikely to give a clear interest rate commitment or directly set policy tone.
Three scenario simulations directly correspond to market trends:
1. Highest probability: continue evasive tactics
Avoid interest rate topics, only discuss AI, productivity, and Fed framework reform without short-term guidance; the market remains in a volatile tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
2. Hawkish stance (bearish for BTC)
Emphasize inflation resilience releasing rate hike signals; the 80,000 level will likely fail, with a downside retest in the 77,000-78,000 range.
3. Unexpected dovish stance (bullish for BTC)
Acknowledge that high long-term bond yields have partially replaced the tightening effect of rate hikes; BTC holds above 80,000 and attempts to test 81,000-82,000.
⚠️ Core reminder: do not bet unilaterally on bulls or bears!
This speech itself is unlikely to provide a clear conclusion; the market will ultimately rely on economic data for validation. Short-term volatility will only intensify, so manage risk well and avoid heavy speculative positions.
$BTC $ETH #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 看完英伟达这份财报，我最大的感觉不是： 英伟达又涨了。 而是—— AI这场资本开支游戏，到现在还没有结束。 英伟达最新季度营收达到 962亿美元，数据中心业务收入约 890亿美元，公司给出的下一季度营收指引更是达到约 1080亿美元。同时，公司预计下一财年收入增长约 70%，明显高于此前市场普遍预期。财报之后，英伟达股价单日上涨约 8.7%。 这不是一个普通公司的财报。 现在的英伟达，已经越来越像整个科技市场的： 风险偏好温度计。 为什么全市场都盯着英伟达？ 因为现在市场真正担心的已经不是： AI厉不厉害？ 这个问题早就没人争了。 市场真正担心的是： 这么疯狂的AI资本开支，到底还能持续多久？ 微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta，包括越来越多AI实验室、企业以及主权资本，都在持续购买算力。 只要这些公司还愿意疯狂投入数据中心， 英伟达的GPU就还有需求。 而只要英伟达的订单还在增长， 市场就会相信： AI投资周期还没有见顶。 英伟达这次财报最重要的地方，就是暂时打消了这个疑问。 Reuters披露，英伟达预计截至2028年1月的下一财年收入增长约70The entire market is waiting for BTC to break through, but tonight we must be more cautious of a “hawkish surprise.”
What is most worth being wary of now is not the lack of bullish sentiment, but the overconcentration of bullish expectations.
BTC is approaching $80,000 again, with ETF funds flowing back, short covering, and improved liquidity expectations, leading the market to generally anticipate a dovish signal from Walsh at Jackson Hole.
But on the other hand, we cannot ignore that July’s PCE year-on-year is still at 3.7%, core PCE at 3.3%, clearly above the 2% target; meanwhile, Fed officials such as Schmid, Hammack, and Goolsbee have recently expressed concerns about inflation.
Interest rate futures previously indicated about a 40% chance of a rate hike in September, showing that the market has not formed a consensus on rate cuts.
So the real risk tonight is the expectation gap.
If Walsh leans dovish and $80,000 holds, BTC may continue to be squeezed higher;
but if he clearly emphasizes inflation stickiness and endorses higher rates for longer, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may strengthen simultaneously, and high-level long positions will face rapid repricing.
More importantly, many funds have already bet in advance on a “positive speech.”
When everyone is waiting for the same bullish candle, the biggest risk is often not the negative itself, but that the outcome is not as dovish as the market imagines.
Don’t just focus on BTC tonight. After Walsh’s speech, whether U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC move in the same direction is the true confirmation of the trend. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SOL outperforms most altcoins, fueled by record‑high Solana ETF volume & institutional inflows.
As a high‑beta asset, it rallies sharply on risk‑on sentiment yet drops much harder than blue‑chips on liquidity fears.
The Korea rate‑hike reminds us risk appetite can fade fast. Trade high‑beta tokens short‑term, avoid heavy long‑term holdings.July's capital flow gave a clear signal: Ethereum became the preferred choice among institutions. Spot ETF data showed a net inflow of about $365 million for $ETH that month, more than twice the size of Bitcoin's. However, entering August, the narrative quickly shifted, with funds flowing back into Bitcoin. In the past seven trading days, Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted about $2.5 billion cumulatively, marking the strongest consecutive inflow since last October.📊
This rotation is not accidental. Bitcoin currently holds steady near $80,000, and Ethereum has rebounded above $2,500, with both assets receiving bottom support from institutional funds. But the market's short-term momentum clearly favors Bitcoin. Behind this rotation lies both an adjustment in macro liquidity expectations and a re-evaluation of risk-reward ratios by different capital sources.💡
It is worth noting that sustained net inflows through ETF channels usually reflect allocation behavior rather than short-term speculative buying. This means the attitude of funds is relatively firm, and if the macro environment does not change drastically, the trend may have some continuity. However, institutional behavior can also quickly shift due to data fluctuations, as history has shown multiple times. Currently, observing the inflow pace for the remainder of August is more meaningful than focusing on daily price swings.
Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile, and ETF capital flows do not represent future returns. Please view market changes rationally and manage risks properly.This morning $BTC held above the 80,000 mark, surged to 80,844 intraday before pulling back, with a weekly gain of 23%, marking the best August since 2017! $ETH held above 2,500, and $SOL led altcoins with a 24% weekly rise.
This round is very solid: spot ETFs have seen eight consecutive inflows totaling $2.8 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking $2.02 billion; gold + BTC ETFs attracted a record $7 billion in five days, signaling a full return of "currency devaluation trades." More importantly, futures open interest dropped to a two-month low while prices rose 24%, driven by spot non-leveraged demand, making the structure healthier than in the first half of the year. Coinbase's premium over Binance returned for the first time in three months, with U.S. institutional funds flowing back.
However, the Fear & Greed Index at 82 has entered the greed zone, resistance at 80,820–82,500 is stuck at the ETF cost line and the 50-week moving average, combined with tonight's speech by Powell with uncertain hawkish or dovish tone. When sentiment reaches extremes, it signals phased profit-taking rather than an all-in entry for chasing the rally.So... back to storage, here’s what we have now:
$SKHY CEO stated: “We expect [storage] shortages to continue until the end of 2030.”
$SNDK stated: “We see structural huge demand for NAND continuing through 2030.” Non-GAAP gross margin will remain around 80%.
$NVDA stated supply commitments increased from $119 billion to $279 billion, mainly driven by storage procurement... Meanwhile, storage pricing is at an “extreme” level and still rising.
Winbond is discussing quota extensions with multiple customers through 2029-2030.
I’ve said before, storage demand looks structural, and now from traditional DRAM to HBM, demand visibility has extended into the coming years...
So I do believe the entire sector’s forward P/E multiples have further upside potential.Market Sentiment Summary (Overall Cryptocurrency Trading Mindset)
On one side, the Hong Kong Crypto Summit plus entertainment trending searches bring a frenzy of traffic across the entire network; on the other side, the macro uncertainty from Jackson Hole creates a very divided market sentiment.
$BTC holds steady above 80,000; longs dare not chase, shorts are frequently proven wrong, and the anxiety of missing out easily triggers revenge trading: continuously adding to short positions against the trend, trying to recover losses from missing out.
The most dangerous move in a bull market is guessing the top driven by emotions.
During the rally phase, wait for a volume breakout before entering with the trend; during the consolidation phase, trade within the range.
Remember: missing out itself is not a loss; the biggest trading trap is heavy positions against the trend to recover losses. Respect the trend and strictly follow trading discipline.Fallen again, the green hair really is a reverse indicator of the market
But it is indeed unlucky, continuous liquidations right after starting the stream, a lightning-fast shameful end.
At this stage, BTC and ETH are highly volatile, with frequent spikes and dips, making the market hard to predict. Position size and leverage must be strictly controlled.
Yesterday, during the stream, a violent market move hit, resulting in a double kill on both longs and shorts.
Short BTC at 79440 faced a rapid surge, losing over four thousand dollars in one trade.
Short ETH around 2500 was on the brink of forced liquidation after just a few dollars' rise.
Heavy ZEC positions also suffered severe losses; even with an ETF launch, blindly shorting is not advisable.
Excessive leverage leaves almost no room for error.
Even if you are right most of the time, one spike can wipe out all profits.
High win rate does not guarantee survival; in the futures market, longevity is far more important than just winning more. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Hidden Impact of South Korea's Interest Rate Hike on the Crypto Market
The Bank of Korea has raised interest rates for the second consecutive time, increasing the benchmark rate to 3%, with a significant upward revision of GDP expectations, representing a proactive tightening driven by economic overheating.
South Korea is one of the most active markets globally for crypto trading, with the iconic indicator being the Kimchi Premium.
With rising deposit rates and increased local risk-free returns, retail investors' willingness to rush into the crypto market may decrease, making it possible for the Kimchi Premium to converge and decline.
The impact on the market is relatively indirect and will not directly change the long-term trend of $BTC in the short term, but it can serve as a reference indicator for observing Asian retail investor sentiment.
Tightening monetary policies across global economies during a bull market can potentially become a trigger for market corrections.
#CryptoMacro #KimchiPremiumH #MainstreamCoinTradingInsights
Short Post 4｜$TRUMP MEME Coin Trading Review (Lessons from BICO's Past)
TRUMP has recently experienced a short-term violent surge, with trading volume sharply increasing. Many traders in the market are hoping it will replicate LAB's crash from $25 down to 0.07.
This reminds me of the trading lesson BICO taught me: I once closed a short position near $0.07 at breakeven, missing out on the full subsequent downtrend.
But the biggest risk with MEME coins is a forced short squeeze driven by traffic, like the traffic effect that went viral during the recent Hong Kong summit. Hot topics can quickly attract capital clustering, leading to brutal short squeezes.
Historical price movements will not simply repeat.
If you are trading short positions, remember not to stubbornly hold onto target levels. Strictly use trailing stop-loss risk control and never heavily position against the trend.
#TRUMP #MEMETradingReviewBTC Macro Perspective (Jackson Hole)
Tonight at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Fed's Waller's speech is the biggest macro variable for the current crypto market.
$BTC has reclaimed the $80,000 level, and the market is speculating whether it can break through the $83,000 resistance.
At this stage of the bull market, short-term trends are driven by summit narratives and trending topics, but the long-term US Treasury yields are the fundamental liquidity switch.
No need to heavily bet on the speech outcome in advance; focus on the 10-year Treasury yield: a decline in yield is positive for risk assets; if the yield sharply breaks above the warning line, the risk of a high-level pullback must be taken seriously.
In a bull market, news-driven sharp fluctuations will become more frequent. Use trailing stops to protect unrealized gains and avoid blindly holding positions.$xSKHY SK Hynix HBM story, a 2% premium is considered normal
24h -1.32%, underlying SK Hynix ADR 8/27 pre-market $164.50 (+4.1%), but OKX hasn't really risen here, Asian session buying hasn't transmitted yet.
NVDA earnings are positive for the memory sector (Blackwell data center revenue MoM +17%, HBM demand confirmed), but SK Hynix didn't follow the rise, indicating a possible catch-up during the day.
Fundamentals: HBM market share 58%, Q2 operating margin 76%, 8/27 Korean session +3.55%. But Morgan Stanley warns that HBM is approaching a cycle peak, which should be noted.
7-day price range $158-170, 30-day +9.78% weaker than BTC's +25%, but higher than $146 30 days ago.
Trading idea: The underlying mapping mechanism of xSKHY is still unclear (KOSPI common stock vs ADR ratio varies by issuer), continue holding existing positions but do not add. For new entries, it is recommended to directly look at SK Hynix ADR (HYSQ) or 2x ETFs like KORU for clearer exposure.The $BTC final drop everyone is waiting for, when will it come? Pay attention to these 3 indicators:
1. ETF fund flow: Currently, BTC's US spot ETF has had net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, and August has become the month with the highest capital inflow this year, indicating the market is still buying.
2. Coinbase premium: Coinbase currently has a premium, indicating that buyers in the US regulated market are willing to pay, even at a higher cost.
3. Seven-day exponential moving average of net realized profit and loss: The current seven-day average is positive, about $752 million, indicating more profitable positions and that enthusiasm remains.
Among these 3 indicators, if 1 deteriorates, caution is needed; if 2 deteriorate, a market reversal is highly likely.From 70% win rate to account zero: The brutal outcome of a high-leverage short-term trading The recently talked-about trader Green Hair has used bloody live trading to teach all short-term contract traders a lesson. Looking at trading data, the win rate over the past 30 days reached 70.60%, which is already impressive for a short-term trader. But behind the glamorous win rate was a maximum drawdown of 307.03%, the overall account return was -98.25%, total losses exceeded 860,000 USD, and the account was almost completely destroyed. Many people fall into the misconception: trading with a high win rate means making money. But the harsh part of the futures market is that dozens of small wins accumulated cannot withstand a single heavy position with a high-leverage reverse market. Looking back at his trading records, almost all were 100x leverage, and he frequently went in full-position. Shorting BTC near 79,440, the rally surged quickly, resulting in a loss of over 4,000 dollars; Shorting ETH near 2,500, only a slight increase of a dozen dollars, and the position was on the verge of liquidation. During the same period, ZEC also entered heavily and suffered backlash from the market. During that period, the market was volatile, with both long and short positions inserted back and forth, making it easy for both sides to be harvested. Shorting at the start of the stream led to a rally; Turning around to cut long, the market plunged again, and the market repeatedly slapped in the face. Instant liquidation and shameful exits in livestreams have also become jokes in the industry. He himself constantly reflects on himself: "I'm too impatient," "I can't beat the banker in the short term," his words full of frustration and helplessness. High win rate ≠ stable profits. A high win rate only represents your judgment most of the time$SOL is really strong today, the latest price is 108.98 USD, with an intraday surge of 8.3%, some data sources even say 9%.
A single bullish candlestick has completely shaken off the sideways consolidation from early August, the altcoin leader's momentum is back. But experienced traders know, the sharper the rise, the more cautious you need to be about the position.
The confidence behind this SOL rally is not just sentiment. On August 27, the US spot SOL ETF had a net inflow of 60.91 million USD in one day, mainly driven by BSOL buying, indicating that traditional funds are also entering through this channel. The on-chain ecosystem is also performing well: Orca and Raydium's fees increased by 106.72% and 47.91% respectively over the past 30 days, and BisonFi surged by 215%, showing that on-chain trading is genuinely active, not just speculative hype.
Technically, pay attention. The daily RSI has reached 84, which is clearly in the overbought zone. The 105 to 107 USD range is a pressure zone from previous dense sell positions and the upper Bollinger Band. A short-term further push may encounter profit-taking. Support is first seen at 101.53; if that doesn't hold, a pullback to the 95 to 98 buying zone is possible.
My own approach is: those already on board should hold tight; those not yet in should not chase aggressively at 108. Wait for a pullback near 100 USD to stabilize, or a volume breakout above 107 before considering entry. SOL is highly volatile, so mistakes can be costly; don't go all in, keep some ammo to sleep well. Banks doing on-chain payments are splitting into two routes
One is stablecoins, running on public chains, with strong liquidity and fast dissemination, but banks worry about regulation, deposit outflows, and balance sheet positions. The other is tokenized deposits, more like moving traditional bank accounts onto the chain, more compliant and comfortable, but less open
I think this is not a technical choice, but a choice of interests. Stablecoins are like an open market—whoever can get the users wins; tokenized deposits are like the banking system's self-rescue, aiming to improve payment efficiency but not wanting to give up customer relationships
In the end, it may not be a binary choice. Cross-border, trading, and crypto-native scenarios will lean towards stablecoins; corporate settlements and internal bank clearing will lean towards tokenized deposits. The real battle is who can become the gateway to on-chain dollars
#银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 Combining the current state of capital and sentiment:
The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator has reached 9.7, entering an extreme bullish zone; 82% of global stock indices are in overbought territory, close to the breadth sell threshold. Capital flow shows that gold and cryptocurrencies are experiencing the largest weekly inflow since October 2025, and market bullish sentiment is already high.
Practical insights for crypto traders
1. BTC has currently reclaimed $80000, with bullish sentiment heating up, but global major asset classes are generally overbought, inherently requiring a pullback and consolidation. Tonight's speech will act as a short-term market catalyst, amplifying volatility.
2. Do not subjectively bet on the speech outcome in advance, and avoid heavy positions to gamble on direction. Focus on monitoring changes in the 10-year US Treasury yield: a decline in yield is positive for crypto, while a sharp rise warns of a high-level plunge.
3. Volatility will significantly increase during the bull market rally phase; strictly manage position sizes, use trailing stops to protect unrealized gains, and avoid chasing highs or heavy bets based on news. Sharp spikes and shocks after news releases can easily shake out weak holders. #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 $BTC Tonight at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Fed's Waller's speech has become the focus of the global financial market. The long-term yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has become the core anchor for global asset pricing, with the bond market leading this round of asset bubbles rather than passively following the trend. The outcome of this speech will also directly transmit to BTC, ETH, and other crypto markets.
Bank of America has outlined two possible scenarios for this speech:
✅ Optimistic scenario (bull-flattening of the yield curve)
The speech releases credible hawkish signals targeting inflation to stabilize short-term rates, while sending dovish signals on long-term U.S. Treasuries, supporting long bond prices and lowering long-term yields.
In an environment of improved liquidity expectations, the dollar weakens, and risk assets see a recovery. BTC and the crypto market are highly likely to follow the global risk appetite and strengthen, continuing the current strong momentum.
❌ Pessimistic scenario (policy communication failure)
The market interprets it as strongly hawkish, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking through the critical 4.7% level and the 30-year surpassing the 5.3% warning line.
Rising long-term rates represent higher forward financing costs and increased expectations of liquidity tightening. High-duration assets come under pressure, growth stocks and AI themes pull back; crypto assets, as high-volatility risk assets, are prone to short-term corrections following the global market, with intensified high-level volatility.
$BTC $ETH #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Fundamental Research Report $SUI / Sui (Public Chain/L1) $0.76 (24h -0.18%)
Essentially: Sui ($SUI) overall score 65/100, rating: fundamentals meet standards but with flaws. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token capture has been realized.
Sui (token $SUI), public chain/L1 sector. Focuses on Move-based parallel settlement public chain. Competitors include APT, SEI. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with paid usage traces. Latest version mainnet-v1.78.1, 9,999 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $606.14M, TVL $459.52M. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $1.57M, token holder buyback and burn annualized with no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 9,999 valid submissions in 90 days, 100 active contributors, latest version mainnet-v1.78.1. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, tech integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 10,000,000,000.0, circulating 4,074,529,886.4415293 (40.7%), FDV $7.62B, next unlock undisclosed (percentage of circulation undisclosed), no clear buyback and burn mechanism annualized. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): circulating market cap: Sui $3.11B, APT undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. FDV: Sui $7.62B, APT undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. Annual revenue: Sui $1.57M, APT undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Sui undisclosed, APT undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing parts supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.11B, FDV $7.62B, P/S 1976.2x, FDV divided by revenue 4850.1x. Pessimistic view: $3.11B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view: revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Ultimately: fundamentals solid (score 65/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlock sell-offs, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information source is public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Report finished, please savor it.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit#Will Wash debut at Jackson Hole tonight and clarify the policy framework?
Jackson Hole is coming with a bang｜Mostly hawkish rhetoric, the market may first undergo a shakeout before moving up
Tonight the Jackson Hole event kicks off, and the market should not overplay the landing of rate hikes. Wash can maintain a hawkish tone verbally, but in reality, the possibility of restarting substantial rate hikes is very low.
What the market truly cares about now is no longer whether there will be a single rate cut or hike, but the entire subsequent monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve. With the election window approaching, the room for direct rate hikes is greatly limited. The scenario leans more towards this script: verbally maintaining hawkish expectations, using debt swaps—exchanging long-term debt for short-term debt—to suppress long-term yields, and waiting for the right moment to open the rate cut window.
There is a key signal on the market that cannot be ignored: continuous net inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs, indicating strong buying support at the lower levels. There is already a clear divergence within the US stock market; Nvidia still holds up the market, but many high-volatility AI stocks have started to weaken. Once the AI sector can no longer drive the US stock market, overflow funds are very likely to flow back into the crypto market seeking new breakthroughs.
Short-term market projection: BTC and ETH will most likely first undergo a round of oscillating correction to wash out short-term speculative positions. After completing this consolidation and digestion, they will launch a renewed upward attack, fueled by macro policy expectations and continuous inflows of incremental funds.
⚠️Risk warning: Macro speeches are highly uncertain, and the market changes rapidly. The above is only a personal logical deduction and does not constitute any investment advice.For the market, this is a very critical global cycle signal:
1. The AI super cycle has genuinely driven manufacturing exports and corporate profits, with some economies beginning to emerge from weakness, and economic overheating forcing central banks to restart tightening; the global easing and rate-cutting pace may be delayed.
2. South Korea is one of the most active crypto trading markets in Asia, known for the Kimchi Premium. After interest rates rise, the increased yield on Korean won deposits will somewhat reduce the willingness of domestic funds to flow into the crypto market, putting potential downward pressure on the Kimchi Premium and short-term sentiment for highly volatile altcoins and MEME tokens.
3. From a broader market perspective: BTC has recently reclaimed $80,000, and the market is debating whether it can challenge $83,000. Short-term trends are more driven by institutional fund sentiment and summit narratives; but in the medium to long term, the rate hike/cut pace of major global economies will determine the liquidity super cycle.
This time, South Korea’s "rate hike rally" gives us a reminder:
Macroeconomic indicators cannot simply apply the rigid formula "rate hike = bearish risk assets"; the motivation behind the rate hike is far more important than the hike itself. If tightening is driven by economic prosperity, risk assets may not immediately turn bearish; but if more economies subsequently restart tightening due to inflation, the bull market’s upward momentum can easily be interrupted.
Traders do not need to immediately change their position framework due to a single event, but they need to include the global monetary policy rhythm in their risk control checklist. $BTC Beyond the buzz of the Bitcoin Asia 2026 Summit, an important macroeconomic message deserves traders' calm attention:
The Bank of Korea announced an increase in the benchmark interest rate to 3%, marking the second consecutive rate hike; 6 out of 7 policy committee members supported the hike, indicating a clearly hawkish overall monetary policy stance.
An interesting anomaly has appeared: according to traditional logic, rate hikes that tighten liquidity usually suppress stock market risk appetite, but the South Korean KOSPI index did not fall under pressure; instead, it rose about 1% intraday.
The underlying logic is not complicated: this rate hike is not a passive tightening due to economic weakness or crisis rescue; on the contrary, it is a "happy problem" caused by an overheating economy.
The Bank of Korea directly raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast sharply from 2.6% to 3.3%, with the core driver of economic strength coming from the global AI wave boosting semiconductor exports and large-scale capital investment in the AI industry.
Inflation is still some distance from the 2% policy target, and rising real estate prices in Seoul and other areas are creating asset bubble pressures. To proactively cool the overheated economy and block inflation spread, the central bank chose to tighten monetary policy proactively, locking in the overheating risk early.
The market interprets the rate hike as a confirmation signal of a strong economy, hence the anomalous market scenario of "rate hike landing, stock market strengthening."
$BTC BTC Tests 50-Week Moving Average: Bear Market Ends, Confirmation Needed Next Week
Friday, August 28, 2026
Q3 · Issue 104
Aspirin · A Cyclical Analysis from the Perspective of a Data Scientist
BTC rebounded by about 24% last week and for the first time this week, it truly reached the 50-week moving average of this bear market. The easiest mistake to make at this moment is to directly label the touch of the weekly MA50 as a "breakout."
In July 2018, during the initial test in 2015, and again in 2022, the market rebounded near the 50-week moving average after breaking through the bearish resistance zone. The commonality between 2019 and 2023 was that after the weekly line broke above the resistance, the following week continued to rise, without immediately giving back the gains from the breakout.
Therefore, my judgment is that evidence of the bear market ending is forming, but it has not yet been confirmed. If the market quickly falls back below the 50-week moving average next week (early September), this rally will still resemble a bear market rebound. Only if it closes above the 50-week moving average for several consecutive weeks, with follow-through gains or pullbacks that do not break below it, will the probability of the bear market ending significantly increase.
The closing of the weekly chart over the next one to two weeks will provide more answers than any slogan. Of course, if the market changes its structure, I will also adjust my judgment.$BTC $ETH The “lock” on the Strait of Hormuz is loosening, but far from being unlocked. Iran and Oman are advancing a phased temporary navigation plan, first establishing a commercial shipping corridor and clearing mines, then discussing long-term arrangements. The strait handles about 20% of global oil transportation. Once the news broke, crude oil quickly shed the panic premium caused by supply disruption fears: WTI briefly fell below $80, dropping about 7% over the past five days; Brent fell nearly 9% in the same period.
However, this is just a trade based on expectations, not a reversal of facts. A temporary corridor does not mean the strait is fully reopened; Iran retains the option to close it. The core conflict between the US and Iran remains unresolved: the US tolerates mine clearance and navigation but intensifies economic sanctions, only suspending military strikes. The market currently prices in "no full-scale war," not "zero Middle East risk." If mine clearance is obstructed, ships are attacked, or Iran changes stance, the risk premium could return at any time.
Crude oil at $80 is a sentiment pivot point; looking down, mine clearance and passage rates matter; looking up, sanction escalation is the risk. CL volatility will only become more intense, BTC will absorb liquidity spillover, and XAU is supported by the logic of "no real peace yet."
Iran-Oman temporary corridor #美拒复旧协议 #霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？ #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Bitcoin hovers around $78,000, with market panic driven more by the drop from $81,250 than by any substantial trend reversal. In my view, this is more like a natural rotation after a sharp rise; the weekly level has just stabilized above $80,000, and funds have not exited. Last week, spot ETF net inflows exceeded $2.2 billion, maintaining positive inflows for seven consecutive days, indicating clear institutional willingness to sc.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest The most important development in crypto may not be another token rally. It may be access. Digital assets are gradually moving beyond dedicated crypto exchanges and into the financial platforms that millions of traditional investors already use. Charles Schwab is a good example. The firm has introduced direct trading for $BTC and $ETH and has announced plans to expand access to assets including $SOL $AVAX and $LINK. With roughly 39 million active brokerage accounts the potential reach is signifiLooking back at the 2022 bear market, BTC experienced a sharp drop followed by a recovery rebound, but after the rebound ended, it dipped again, finally stabilizing at a strong bottom around $16,000. ETH went through the same pattern of first rebounding then dropping again.
In the current market, after BTC failed to break through 81,000, it turned downward and is now oscillating around 78,000. ETH is holding around the 2,500 level with repeated tugging.
The core variables are different now. Back then, there was almost no institutional capital supporting the market, but now Bitcoin spot ETFs see huge weekly inflows, genuinely supporting the market, making it difficult to simply replicate the previous bear market script.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
Do you think history will simply repeat itself, or will institutional capital rewrite the magnitude of this round of correction? $BTC $ETH Regarding this BTC wave, I am reluctant to explain it purely from a technical perspective. Looking at the market, BTC is still oscillating repeatedly at key levels, with clear capital support, but each upward move is not decisive. The reason is simple: there are macro events tonight. At 22:00 Beijing time / Singapore time tonight, the market will focus on Jackson Hole's speech, but what truly determines the market is not the speech itself, but the market's repricing: interest rates. Currently, several forces influencing BTC are actually fighting each other. (1) Inflationary pressure: bearish US inflation still hasn't fully come down. If the speech continues to emphasize: inflation risk remains high
Interest rates need to remain elevated
Further tightening is not ruled out, so the chain of market trading is very likely: U.S. Treasury yields rising
→ US dollar strengthens
→ Risk assets under pressure
→ BTC Declines: So if a clear hawkish signal appears tonight, don't assume that the previous support can still hold. In macro events, technical support can be directly broken. (2) BTC ETF Capital: Bullish On the other hand, things are completely different. Recently, BTC spot ETFs have continued to see clear capital inflows. This means: there really are people buying in below. So we've seen funds take over BTC every time it drops, not because there is no fundamental support. That's why I currently don't believe BTC has entered a clear major bearish trend. (3) Liquidity Expectations: Medium-Term Bullish Trend There's still one more in the market