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The market’s verdict on Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech?
Hawkish — but not catastrophic.
The 2Y Treasury yield jumped from roughly 4.23% to 4.30%, signaling higher rate expectations.
Yet Nasdaq didn’t collapse.
Why?
NVIDIA just showed that AI demand remains incredibly strong:
$96.2B quarterly revenue, +106% YoY.
Data Center revenue: $89B, +117% YoY.
The message is becoming clearer:
AI fundamentals are strong.
But AI valuations are now under stress.
This isn’t necessarily an “AI winter.”$ETH is more suppressed in the short term than Bitcoin due to the "hawkish" tone of Waller's speech, but there is a unique strategic point in the mid-to-long-term logic for Ethereum.
The specific impacts can be viewed in three layers:
· Heavier short-term selling pressure (leverage clearing): Ethereum's on-chain staking and DeFi lending are more sensitive to interest rates. Under expectations of tightening liquidity, funds will prioritize withdrawing from higher-risk on-chain leveraged positions, resulting in poorer price elasticity for Ethereum. Under the same bearish conditions, its decline is usually greater than Bitcoin's.
· "Deflation narrative" temporarily invalid: Previously, the market expected Ethereum's supply reduction to be beneficial, but Waller emphasized that the "primary task is fighting inflation," meaning high interest rates will persist longer. This will directly suppress on-chain activity (NFTs, DeFi trading volume), leading to prolonged low network gas fees. Once Ethereum enters an "inflation" state (issuance exceeding burn), its "ultrasound money" narrative will be weakened.
· Institutional funds as a double-edged sword: Waller personally is friendly to crypto assets (calling Bitcoin the "new gold"), but his liquidity tightening policies will slow the pace of large-scale entry by traditional institutions. However, if a rate cut cycle begins in the future, because Ethereum's staking yield (about 3-4%) is higher than U.S. Treasury bonds, it may instead become the first asset to be aggressively accumulated by institutions, forming a "bearish exhaustion" rebound.Waller's speech landed: hawkish, but not fatal
First, the conclusion: hawkish bias, but the market has already priced in most of it. Three key points from the speech:
First, inflation remains the number one enemy. Waller bluntly stated, "Summer inflation data was better than expected, but the underlying trend has not substantially improved." PCE year-over-year increase is 3.7%, far from the 2% target. He emphasized: we must be confident that inflation is falling toward the target fast enough, otherwise we still have work to do.
Second, rejection of forward guidance. Waller clearly said that in normal times forward guidance should be limited to avoid over-committing to future rate paths. He even joked, "You can call it an outline, but definitely not forward guidance." The market should not expect the Fed to "feed" it; watch the data yourself.
Third, the economy is strong, financial conditions are not tight. Corporate capital expenditures are up about 9% year-over-year, and the unemployment rate at 4.1% is at historic lows.
After the speech, the probability of a September rate hike rose above 45%, US Treasury yields surged, and gold plunged $50. The crypto market dipped slightly, with BTC falling about 0.89% within fifteen minutes to $78,620 — a much smaller drop than expected. This indicates that after short squeeze pressure eased, spot buying is indeed coming in.
Waller did not explicitly say a September hike is certain but hinted it is "not ruled out." This is not good news for risk assets, but the core drivers for BTC rising from 64,000 to 80,000 are Treasury liquidity operations and ETF inflows, not rate cut expectations. As long as these two logics hold, consolidation around 80,000 is highly probable.
The negative news is priced in; next, we look at ETF data.8.28 Evening Market Analysis｜Waller's Hawkish Speech Lands, Market Under Pressure and Pulls Back
Two events coincided tonight: $6.4 billion options expiration settlement and Waller's first speech at Jackson Hole. The tone was hawkish, no interest rate path was given, and the forward guidance was canceled, stating inflation hasn't improved substantially, the 2% target remains unchanged, and rate hikes are still possible. Upon the news, US Treasury yields rebounded, the dollar strengthened, and BTC was pushed down from around 79,500, amplifying volatility in both macro and derivatives markets.
What Waller said
He didn't directly say whether there will be a rate hike in September, but the meaning was clear: the summer inflation improvement is not enough, underlying inflation hasn't improved, and the Fed still has work to do. Financial conditions are not tight, but if inflation rebounds, further rate hikes are not ruled out. Going forward, no advance hints on rates will be given; decisions will be entirely data-dependent.
The market immediately raised the probability of a September rate hike, putting risk assets under pressure. But it must be clear—this is a short-term suppression caused by worsening liquidity expectations, not a trend reversal. ETFs are still seeing net inflows, and institutional mid-term logic remains intact.
The large option positions have been settled, and market makers have offloaded most hedging pressure. Future trends will depend more on spot capital and macro sentiment. But tonight, macro is bearish, with short-term bears dominating.
---
BTC Key Levels
Resistance above at 78,800-79,200; if the rebound can't hold above, weakness continues.
Support below at 77,500-77,800; holding means high-level consolidation, breaking it points to 76,800.
ETH
More elastic than BTC, with slightly larger pullbacks. Resistance at 2,520, support at 2,440, still following the broader market.
Altcoins broadly down, MEME more volatile. 24-hour liquidation scale increased, both longs and shorts got swept, with a particularly sharp spike during the speech.
Trading Strategy
Mid-term is fine; ETFs continue inflows, hawkish speech is just a short-term shock, not a crash trend, pullbacks are shakeouts.
Short-term bearish, don't rush to bottom-fish. Don't chase rebounds under resistance; try small positions once support stabilizes, and don't hold if broken.
Focus next on US inflation data; the Fed is fully data-driven now. Weekend liquidity is weak, volatility continues; deleveraging and light positions are better than anything else.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
$BTC $ETH $SOL BTC touched 81,000 again, then got kicked back down to over 79,000.
On August 28, BTC once broke through $81,000, with a daily increase of over 3%. The script is exactly the same as before—once it hits 80,000, someone dumps.
Money keeps flowing in, but the price just can't go up.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, accumulating $2.8 billion. BlackRock's IBIT alone brought in $277.6 million in one day. The cumulative inflow since August has exceeded $3 billion, potentially becoming the largest single-month inflow since the product's launch.
On the other hand, about $270 million to $399 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with short liquidations making up the majority, about $256 million. Shorts were cleared out, but the price still hasn't held above 80,000.
What does this indicate? Someone is precisely selling above 80,000, and spot buying is absorbing the selling pressure.
The highlight tonight is Federal Reserve Chair Powell's first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Conference. The probability of a rate hike in September is 35%, and the December hike is fully priced in. If Powell leans hawkish, 80,000 might be a short-term top; if dovish, a breakout could really happen.
Tonight's speech might be more important than all the data from the past week.
$BTC $ETH The key point the market has been waiting for all day is now that Warsh has officially begun speaking. The key point is not "raising rates immediately," but his clear statement that if inflation does not clearly and quickly return to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do."
💬 Tomorrow BTC, you: A breaks through 82,800, B continues to oscillate between 78,000–82,800, C falls below 78,000?
1️⃣ PCE still grew 3.7% year-on-year, and Warsh believes inflation has improved only in the past two years.
2️⃣ He believes the job market is stable and the economy is resilient, and broad financial conditions are hard to call 'restrictive.'
3️⃣ The 2% inflation target remains unchanged, with short-term interest rates remaining the main policy tool.
4️⃣ He did not provide a clear timetable for rate hikes, but instead reiterated his dislike of excessive forward guidance.
What bulls see is: no direct rate hike announcement; What bears are truly worried about is that the overall tone is clearly hawkish.
📊 Market Judgment: Neutral to bearish
I'm not chasing long right now. If BTC stabilizes above 82,800, I'll turn bullish; If it falls below 78,000, be careful not to let the pullback expand $BTC $ETH As of August 28, Solana (SOL) has surged nearly 20% this week, significantly outperforming Bitcoin's approximately 9% gain over the same period, ranking among the top-performing major cryptocurrencies.
There are four main drivers behind this strong upward movement of SOL:
1. Continuous net inflows into ETFs, with about $74.8 million flowing in this week alone, marking an impressive single-week fund inflow since 2026;
2. Price holding steady above the $100 mark, briefly reaching a year-to-date high of $109, with market bullish sentiment noticeably warming up;
3. Comprehensive rebound in ecosystem activity, with on-chain transactions and Meme coin trading within the sector both active, combined with incremental ETF capital inflows, creating a positive feedback loop of "price rise → increased trading activity → sustained capital inflow";
4. Ongoing expansion of traditional financial channels, with Charles Schwab launching SOL spot trading, further broadening institutional investment access.
Key points to watch going forward:
The critical signal in this rally is SOL's independent price action, achieving excess returns relative to BTC and ETH. The $100 level has become an important bull-bear dividing line; $110 is a short-term strong resistance and previous high; if $120 is successfully broken, further upside potential may open. If $100 is lost and weakness continues, caution is warranted for concentrated profit-taking after a 20% surge.
The daily RSI once touched 80.5, indicating accumulating short-term risks of chasing higher prices. $BTC $ETH $SOL #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #OKX预言家：Premier League, LCK, and F1 predictions underway
"£65 million per year to buy the Chelsea chest sponsor: Why Circle put stablecoins on the Premier League pitch"
The three-year vacancy for Chelsea's chest sponsorship has been settled, with stablecoin USDC issuer Circle making a major takeover.
Starting from this weekend's Premier League opener, the golden USDC logo will appear at Stamford Bridge, with an annual sponsorship exceeding £65 million.
This is the first time in Premier League history that a crypto financial institution has bought the main chest sponsorship of a top club with stablecoins as the core logo.
Facing Tether's suppression in offshore markets, Circle, rushing to go public, is building a compliance mindset barrier using top-tier sports IP.
The stablecoin competition has shifted from on-chain internal battles to mainstream breakout; the first to secure global sports IP will control the basic user base. $USDC #Will Walsh debut at Jackson Hole tonight, can he clarify the policy framework?
Short-term negative for SanDisk, can SanDisk continue to rise?
Impact of Walsh's Jackson Hole speech on $SNDK
⚠️ Purely macro logic deduction, not investment advice
Walsh signals a hawkish bias: inflation has not met the target, does not rule out further rate tightening and cancellation of forward guidance. SanDisk, as a high-valuation growth stock in AI storage, has its stock price highly constrained by the real yield on U.S. Treasury bonds, and the discount rate applied to long-term cash flow valuation will be elevated.
1. Short-term negative
After the speech, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and risk assets collectively saw valuation cuts. SanDisk had a huge prior gain and its TTM valuation is at a historical high, representing a crowded long trade; capital will quickly reduce positions to avoid risk, making a rapid pullback likely, pressured in sync with BTC and Nasdaq tech stocks. Even if corporate orders are full and AI data center demand is strong, rising rates will first suppress the stock price rather than immediately change the company's fundamentals.
2. Medium to long term viewed separately
The speech did not deny AI capital expenditure; the long orders for AI server SSDs and the industry cycle logic of NAND flash price increases remain intact. If inflation subsequently falls and rate cut expectations return, U.S. Treasury yields decline, SanDisk will see valuation recovery;Federal Reserve Chair Wash: Forward-looking policies are not based on outdated or inaccurate data. In fact, the subtext of this statement is that I am neither raising nor lowering interest rates now, adopting a neutral fiscal or monetary policy. The market had already anticipated this, so the recent fluctuations in ETH seem more like a leveraged liquidation using market information.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware
#BTCOptionsExpiryTest The long-awaited pullback has finally arrived.
Luckily, I held on stubbornly these past few days and didn’t sell, otherwise today would have been wasted.
The short position on $ETH has already gained some profit and is running.
I plan to at least double this trade before closing it; otherwise, I really can’t bear to close it.
The entry point for the $BTC short position wasn’t as good as ETH’s, so the profit is smaller.
But the overall direction is correct, so it’s not a big problem.
$SOL has also been followed up simultaneously; the short positions on all three coins are running together.
The real downtrend might not have officially started yet.
But honestly, the recent crazy long positions by the whales are really unsettling.
The Billionaire and Yili Hua both took long positions in the 79,000 to 80,000 range.
One sees 100,000, the other sees 86,000.
86,000 is still manageable, but if it really surges to 100,000, I might have to add more funds to my account again 😅
We’ll see how things go next! Brothers, what do you think about this wave? Let’s talk about your views!
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #Moonwell遭价格操纵，抵押风险暴露
I am Cige. The Base ecosystem lending protocol Moonwell was price manipulated, resulting in a loss of $8.7 million. The attacker exploited the insufficient trading depth of MAMO to pump the price, then used it as an overvalued collateral to borrow highly liquid assets like cbBTC and USDC. Moonwell has already lowered the borrowing limit to 1 wei and restricted new supply of MAMO and WELL.
This is not a contract code vulnerability; it is a failure of collateral liquidity, oracle pricing, and risk parameters together. Low liquidity tokens used as collateral with insufficient price depth can be easily manipulated with a simple pull. Multi-source pricing, supply limits, and borrowing caps can prevent such attacks, but Moonwell did not implement these. This incident serves as a wake-up call for the entire DeFi lending sector: collateral quality is more important than yield, and liquidity depth is more important than innovation. The direction remains unchanged, but the pace is shifting. That's all from Cige, take it in.In my opinion, tonight's speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is meant to signal that the worst of the negative news is over, or the "boot has dropped." The subsequent market movement usually unfolds in three stages:
First, an instant oversold rebound. When the negative news is realized, the last batch of panic sellers exit, creating a vacuum in selling pressure. Prices quickly recover, with previously oversold quality assets showing the greatest elasticity. This rebound is often accompanied by increased trading volume.
Second, differentiation and bottoming. After a violent rebound, the market enters a consolidation and bottoming phase, focusing on distinguishing the nature of the negative news. If it is a short-term financial shock, stock prices may experience a V-shaped reversal; if it changes the long-term industry logic (such as the end of a policy), the rebound will be followed by a gradual decline, with funds shifting to new directions. During this period, there is intense competition between left-side bottom-fishers and right-side escapees, with candlesticks repeatedly retesting lows. Only if previous lows hold can a technical bottom be confirmed.
Finally, waiting for new expectations. The exhaustion of negative news only removes downward momentum; upward movement requires new catalysts, such as easing policies or industry recovery data. If new expectations are delayed, the market will trade sideways at low levels for a long time, shifting from trading "bad news" to trading "good news" takes time.
Three key reminders: First, the true "exhaustion" can only be confirmed in hindsight; do not mistake "reduced negative news" for "exhaustion" to avoid buying halfway down the slope. Second, during the bottoming phase, extremely low trading volume (lowest volume) is more reliable than price stabilization, indicating that speculative positions have been washed out. Third, closely watch the most resilient leading stocks in the sector; if they no longer hit new lows and strengthen with volume, it is often a signal of institutional pre-positioning and deserves priority attention. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SNDK Before and after Waller's speech on August 28, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced intense volatility characterized by a "rally-fall-rally" pattern. This was not caused by a single piece of news but was a multi-front battle driven by macro policy games, pre-speech speculative expectations, and post-speech interpretation of wording.
🚀 Why the "rally"? — Pre-speech "dovish expectation" speculation
Before Waller's speech, the market mainly pushed prices up based on the following logic:
· Treasury "liquidity injection" expectation: On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchases. The market bet that if the Federal Reserve cooperated (i.e., "fiscal-led"), it would effectively lower long-term interest rates and release liquidity, benefiting Bitcoin and other inflation-resistant assets. Bitcoin rose from about 80,000 within a week.
· Continuous inflow into ETFs: Before the speech, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling over $2.8 billion, becoming the most direct buying force.
· Technical breakout: Under strong bullish sentiment, Bitcoin once surged to $81,455, a three-month high.
📉 Why the "fall"? — Speech content interpreted as "hawkish"
Waller's formal speech extinguished the market's "dovish" illusions mainly because:
· Policy focus clearly on "inflation fighting": He emphasized that the current policy focus should be on price issues, and the 2% inflation target is "unchanged." Considering the PCE inflation was as high as 3.7% at the time, this implied continued tightening.
· Caution on "forward guidance" and defense of Fed independence: He was reserved about "forward guidance" and opposed over-commitment. This was interpreted by the market as a refusal to endorse the Treasury's repurchase plan, shattering the market's "fiscal-led" fantasy.
· Market immediately voted with its feet: Within 15 minutes after the speech, BTC dropped about 0.89% to 2,477.
🔄 Why the "rally again"? — Bull-bear game and exhaustion of negative factors
After a rapid drop, the price rebounded again, reflecting the market's complex mindset:
· Exhaustion of negative factors and short covering: The hawkish speech met expectations, and some traders believed the negative factors were exhausted and began buying to close positions.
· Technical support: Bitcoin rebounded after hitting key support levels, attracting technical buying.
⚖️ The essence of the volatility: tug-of-war between two macro forces
At a deeper level, this volatility was a fierce clash of two macro forces in the crypto market:
· Treasury "liquidity injection": lowering long-term interest rates through bond repurchases, benefiting Bitcoin.
· Federal Reserve "tightening": controlling inflation through high interest rates, bearish for Bitcoin.
The market speculated on "liquidity injection" before the speech and fell after the "tightening" signals, causing intense fluctuations.
💎 Summary
This volatility is a typical case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." The market over-priced the possibility of dovishness before the speech, while Waller's hawkish stance defending Fed independence directly burst that bubble. Meanwhile, over 70,000 liquidations totaling $344 million also reflect how highly leveraged markets are prone to sharp swings due to macro news.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 ✅Key points from the Jackson Hole speech
Core: Hawkish tilt, no direct mention of immediate rate hikes, but dispelled market hopes for rapid rate cuts
Key original points
1. The 2% inflation target will not be compromised; current inflation has not shown substantial decline, more work remains
2. The current financial environment is not considered tight; further rate hikes are possible, interest rates remain the main tool
3. No pre-commitment to the September rate decision; future judgments will fully depend on new inflation data
4. The labor market remains relatively robust; no priority on job preservation for now
Market immediate reaction
- US Treasury yields rebounded quickly, risk-free returns rose
- Probability of a September rate hike increased significantly, rate cut expectations cooled sharply
Impact on crypto market
1. Big picture: liquidity expectations tighten, unfavorable for sustained crypto price rallies; previous high around 80,000 will face increased pressure
2. Short term: funds will be more cautious, high levels prone to volatile pullbacks, altcoins (SOL, ZEC, etc.) usually experience stronger corrections than Bitcoin
3. Key focus ahead: upcoming US inflation data will be especially critical; if inflation remains high, rate hike expectations will continue to rise, suppressing the market
Wash's speech this time is hawkish; market expectations shift from "easy money fantasies" back to caution, unfavorable for risk assets in the short term, entering a more cautious phase.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Analysis of $BTC based on Wash's speech at Jackson Hole
⚠️ Macro market interpretation only, not investment advice
1. Wash sends a hawkish signal this time: sticking to the 2% inflation target, believes inflation has not substantially improved, states current financial conditions are still not tight enough, leaving room to continue tightening rates; also cancels traditional forward guidance, policy will fully follow economic data, no longer providing the market with a clear interest rate path; additionally reiterates the Fed will not backstop crypto/stablecoin risks but acknowledges digital assets are now part of the financial market.
2. Transmission logic to BTC
1. Liquidity expectations under pressure: delayed rate cuts, possibility of rate hikes retained, US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens. BTC is a high-beta risk asset, institutional ETF funds will be suppressed by real interest rates, short-term upside is limited, market directly experiences a slight pullback.
2. Increased policy uncertainty: cancellation of forward guidance means future market will fluctuate sharply with every inflation and employment data release, volatility will increase, contract spike risk significantly rises.
3. Medium to long term duality: He does not exclude Bitcoin itself, viewing BTC as a hedge asset similar to gold.
3. Resistance
1. Short-term first resistance: 80800‑81300
2. Intermediate resistance: 82500‑83000
Support
1. First defensive support: 79600‑79800
2. Key strong support: 77800‑78200 The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller has concluded. I have summarized it into four main core aspects. The first is that the Federal Reserve is now more concerned about inflation in the United States rather than employment issues. The second is that the Federal Reserve believes the financial markets still do not see any signs of tightening. The third is that the Federal Reserve will not provide any forward guidance at this time. The fourth is an explanation of the conditions under which the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. All four outcomes are hawkish statements; none of the remarks are favorable to the financial markets, which is undoubtedly a blow to the current market. —————————————————— First, Waller believes that employment in the United States remains strong, but inflation has reached a very serious level. He believes that employment in the U.S. is sufficient, while inflation is widespread and above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. He also stated that although recent inflation data has improved, it still does not convince him that inflation has substantially improved. Finally, at the end of his speech, he once again emphasized inflation. Waller said this at the end of his speech: "I stand here today to uphold a discipline, not to make a decision." This is very clear: the Federal Reserve will stick to the 2% inflation target without change. —————————————————— Second, Waller believes that the current financial markets show no signs of tightening. Waller stated that currently, credit spreads in the market remain low, loan standards are relatively loose, and the credit marketComplete analysis of BTC and ETH surging, falling back, then surging again with large fluctuations after Warsh's speech
Market phenomenon: At the moment the speech was broadcast, prices surged first, then quickly plunged after reading the full text, digested for over ten minutes, and then pulled back again, with intense back-and-forth tug-of-war; altcoins followed the big coins with synchronized large ups and downs.
Root cause: Contradictory views within the speech text, market expectation divergence, Friday options expiration Gamma hedging, high leverage across the network, liquidity contraction near the weekend, multiple forces pulling against each other.
1. Macro level: The speech itself caused expectation splits
Warsh's speech was a "mixed signal," neither purely hawkish nor purely dovish, causing repeated capital games.
1. Opening segment: No direct extreme tough wording was thrown out; short-term traders first interpreted it as dovish, US Treasury yields briefly declined, BTC and ETH quickly surged.
2. After reading the full text: It clearly emphasized stubborn inflation, the 2% target remains unchanged, left room for further rate hikes, "there is still work to do," the hawkish parts were caught by the market, yields rebounded, prices quickly fell and crashed.
3. Subsequently, capital re-evaluated: The market began repricing; although the wording was hawkish, the probability of an immediate rate hike in September remained low, not tightening immediately, so buying re-entered and prices surged again.
2. Derivatives amplify volatility (key Friday variable)
Coinciding with weekly CME options expiration, in a negative Gamma environment, market makers' hedging amplifies price swings.
1. Surge upward: Market makers passively sell spot, suppressing upward momentum;
2. Rapid fall: Market makers are forced to sell along, accelerating the drop, triggering massive long liquidations;
3. At key support levels, many short positions trigger stop losses, shorts cover, pulling prices back up.
Thus, the "surge—crash—pullback" pattern is not due to deliberate manipulation but a chain reaction of options hedging plus contract liquidations, amplifying every move. The whole network experiences bidirectional clearing and explosions.
3. Spot capital two forces continuously opposing
1. Bullish force: Spot buying from ETFs like BlackRock remains, forming support below; some capital believes that even if the speech is hawkish, short-term rate hikes won't happen immediately, so they buy on dips.
2. Bearish selling pressure:
① Previous profit-taking and dormant ancient wallet addresses sell on rallies;
② Some institutions proactively reduce weekend exposure on Friday, using the speech rally to reduce positions, avoiding weekend geopolitical or policy black swans.
The two capital forces are evenly matched, so no one-sided trend emerges, just back-and-forth tugging.
4. Liquidity disadvantage at timing (Friday night)
1. US stock market nears close, Wall Street traders gradually leave; crypto trades 24/7, institutional fiat channels about to close, market liquidity thins, so small funds can cause large price swings.
2. Approaching weekend: Bank settlements pause, large fiat transfers are blocked, bottom-fishing and fleeing funds are constrained, intensifying spike-like fluctuations.
5. Different coin market performances
BTC, ETH
Oscillate back and forth between key support and resistance. ETFs are important buffers; as long as ETFs do not turn to continuous net outflows, deep crashes are hard to realize, but breaking upper resistance in one go is also difficult.
Altcoins (SOL, ZEC, etc.)
Volatility is much greater than big coins. Upward phases have higher elasticity; during pullbacks, contract liquidations are more severe. Altcoins lack ETF spot support and fully follow the market's risk appetite swings.
6. Two subsequent scenario distinctions
Scenario 1: Just event shock volatility (currently higher probability)
After digestion of volatility, prices return to the original large range BTC 74800-80000, ETH 2240-2500.
Observation signals: ETF maintains net inflow; 74800 and 2240 supports hold; no weekend black swan; institutional funds return Monday; volatility falls.
Scenario 2: Confirmed weakness after volatility
If repeated surges are all resisted and fall back; ETF inflows rapidly shrink or turn outflows; daily chart breaks 74800/2240 effectively, a medium-term correction will start.
7. Key observation signals
1. Whether the 2-year US Treasury yield continues to rise, the macro anchor;
2. BTC/ETH spot ETF subsequent capital flows, the spot confidence;
3. Key supports: BTC 74800, ETH 2240;
4. Weekend liquidity is poor, weekend spikes and extreme prices have low reference value; the real trend depends on Monday's institutional return market.
Summary
This large back-and-forth volatility essentially stems from Warsh's mixed statements causing market interpretation splits, combined with Friday options expiration Gamma amplifying volatility, spot capital bull-bear confrontation, and weekend liquidity contraction.
The speech did not provide a clear absolute hawkish or dovish direction; the market is repricing the September Fed probability. The volatility is just event disturbance; true trend confirmation awaits the fading of derivatives disturbance and whether spot capital and key supports hold.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The easiest phrase to mock in Crypto these years: "We take compliance very seriously," because those who say this often can't even clearly explain what they are licensed to do in which country. Having worked on compliance in challenging regions like Africa, I believe compliance is not a moat for a company like cash reserves or technical strength; it is more like an option.
An option means the cost you pay today can allow you to do something in the future that others cannot. For example, banks are willing to open accounts for you, companies are willing to pay salaries and consolidate funds with you, brokers are willing to accept your tokenized securities, and institutions are willing to place client assets into your custody system.
Recent disclosures show that exchanges may need 18–24 months and millions of dollars to obtain some cross-regional licenses. This is not universally applicable, but it somewhat explains why Wall Street investors have started to treat licenses as part of their assets: you can hire people if you lack technology, invest if you lack money, but you cannot replicate lost time.
Of course, a compliance license is not a universal pass. The best situation is not "I have a license," but "this license allows me to serve clients that others cannot, and the fees from these clients cover the cost of maintaining this system."
Therefore, I break down a project's compliance into four parts:
First, rights: what exactly is it allowed to do among custody, issuance, brokerage, payment, and clearing?
Second, jurisdiction: where is this license valid, and how much remains after cross-border operations?
Third, cost: how much is spent annually on audits, capital, personnel, and reporting?
Fourth, clients: which clients come only because of this license?
The most easily overlooked part is clients. Many projects treat obtaining a license as the end goal, but clients will not pay just because you are compliant. The real business world only cares about what troubles are reduced for which clients in what scenarios thanks to this license.
In summary, the most valuable in the future will definitely not be the company with the most licenses, but the company whose licenses are most tightly integrated with its products. Stablecoin issuance, corporate wallets, tokenized securities, prediction markets—each track requires different combinations. The right combination is the true next phase of Crypto; the wrong combination means, sorry, the more licenses you have, the heavier the burden.The Federal Reserve used to look down on crypto and simply ignore it,
now it has no choice but to take it seriously.
The Fed has put crypto and stablecoins on the official agenda of the Jackson Hole meeting, signaling an intent to "bring them under control."
Central banks used to completely dismiss crypto assets, but now they can't avoid discussing them.
There's no way around it: the short-term U.S. Treasury holdings in the hands of stablecoin issuers have already surpassed those of Saudi Arabia; these private institutions are incredibly wealthy.
When privately issued dollar tokens get involved in the U.S. monetary and debt system, it means they've officially joined the table.
However, U.S. legislation mandates that stablecoin reserves must be allocated in U.S. Treasuries, effectively creating a super stable buyer base for Treasuries out of thin air.
This is better than outright seizure; the goal is simple: to transform wild stablecoins into obedient, controllable, and legitimate financial instruments.
The 49th symposium will be held from August 27 to 29 in Wyoming.
There is great uncertainty about Wash's Friday speech.
He could extensively discuss the impact of crypto and stablecoins, or completely avoid crypto and only talk about inflation, rate hikes, and cuts.
Currently, the market is deeply divided; some bet on rate cuts, others on continued hawkishness.
Retail investors foolishly hope the meeting will bring direct positive news for crypto.
The real factors deciding Bitcoin's fate are always interest rates and liquidity.
The meeting topics are just surface-level hype; what can truly crash or pump the market is the stance on monetary policy.
Even if crypto isn't mentioned at all, as long as a hawkish signal is sent, the crypto community will still get hit hard, becoming mere followers and accepting their fate.The sectors leading the gains today are all small caps, sharing a common trait not of technological progress but of attention—gamification, communities, political memes, all priced based on popularity. The key is to see where the money is coming from. The USDT market cap moved only 0.01% in 24 hours, essentially no new money entering; meanwhile, BTC dominance dropped to 59.1%, and the entire market fell by 2.75%. The conclusion is straightforward: this is not an incremental market, but a reallocation of existing funds from large caps to small caps. The smaller the cap, the higher the same amount of money can push it, so the leaderboard is naturally filled with these types of assets. Fear and greed index is 73, a week ago it was 72, barely changed—sentiment hasn't spread, just localized agitation. My judgment: this rotation is short-term, lacking a foundation for broader spread, so don't treat it as the start of a new altcoin season. A verifiable end signal: under the premise that USDT market cap still does not grow, BTC dominance stops falling and rebounds, rising back above 59.1%—funds turn back to large caps, and this small-cap rotation is over. Another simultaneous signal is that the daily gains of these sectors converge back to single digits.Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech was hawkish. No Fed backing for Treasury bond buybacks = Fed independence over coordination. Markets reacted fast: 📈 DXY up 📈 Treasury yields up 📉 $BTC fell from $81K to around $79K Why it matters: A big part of Bitcoin's rally from $64K → $80K was driven by the belief that improving liquidity conditions would support risk assets. Warsh just poured cold water on that thesis. The market wanted liquidity confirmation. It got a reminder that the Fed is still foc$BTC BTC breaks 80,000 again, this time with more confidence
Bitcoin returns to $80,000, once reaching $81,300 intraday, with a monthly gain of over 28%, marking the largest single-month increase since November 2024.
Three driving forces behind this:
First, US Treasury repurchase triggers "devaluation trade." The US Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion each time, interpreted by the market as implicit easing, weakening the dollar, with Bitcoin and gold rising together.
Second, institutional buying continues. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding $2.6 billion over 8 consecutive trading days, Coinbase premium reappears, and US funds are entering with real money.
Third, short covering boosts the rally. Previously, over $1 billion in shorts were liquidated in a single day, prices surged rapidly, followed by active institutional buying, indicating the rally is not over yet.
What to watch next:
RSI has exceeded 80, indicating clear short-term overbought conditions, with heavy supply between $81.1K and $82.3K. Tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole will determine how long the "devaluation trade" can continue.
80,000 is reached, but holding steady is the real skill. Waller's hawkish speech but dovish actions—this kind of “Tai Chi master” is scarier than a clear rate hike
Just finished listening to Waller's speech, summed up in one sentence: all hawkish words, no action in hand.
He said "primary focus on prices" and "inflation won't return automatically," which sounds like a rate hike. But then he added, "the market's judgment is correct," which translates to: if you think I won't hike, you're right.
My judgment: the bad news is fully priced in, short-term bullish, your short position probably won't get a big win this month.
Why? The market fears a "clear rate hike path" more than "hawkish catchphrases." Waller's Tai Chi this time means a September hike is basically off the table. The market prices no hike in September, and he didn't refute it, which equals tacit approval.
Volatility will sharply drop, and a large one-sided move is unlikely in the short term.
After the speech, BTC reacted mildly, volatility around $1,000, US stock futures unchanged, dollar unchanged, indicating the market didn't take it seriously. Low-volatility choppy trading might be the new normal.
My strategy: rather than betting on direction, wait for clear signals before acting. In choppy markets, both longs and shorts get hit, so trade less and watch more. Wait for price to pull back to support zones before considering going long. $BTC
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 Good evening everyone! $BTC $SNDK The following is only a macro logic deduction and does not constitute investment advice.
The relationship among Waller's Jackson Hole speech, BTC, and storage stocks
Transmission chain: Waller's speech → market interest rate expectations change → 10Y US Treasury yield fluctuations → simultaneously affecting BTC and storage stocks.
No fundamental intersection: storage stock performance comes from AI server HBM demand; BTC mining does not consume storage hardware. Their linkage is entirely due to common capital sources and synchronized risk appetite.
Three speech scenarios deduction
1. Hawkish (retaining rate hike option, emphasizing inflation priority, high rates maintained longer)
US Treasury yields rise, risk-free returns increase.
• BTC: Leveraged longs above 80000 liquidate, pull back to 76000-78000 support; spot institutional base positions won’t sell massively, this is a shakeout downward, difficult to break upward.
• Storage stocks (Micron, SK Hynix, Western Digital): high duration AI growth stocks, discount rate rise kills valuation; market worries about rising AI capital expenditure costs suppress HBM demand expectations, storage sector collectively pulls back, more crowded elastic targets fall more.
2. Neutral baseline scenario (data-dependent, no clear rate hike/cut signal)
Market currently prices baseline expectation, inflation stubborn but no action yet.
• BTC: Maintains range oscillation above 80000, macro no longer driving, market driven by ETF funds and US crypto policy.
• Storage stocks: No extra valuation pressure, stock price returns to industry fundamentals: HBM supply-demand, original factory price hike rhythm, earnings reports. Macro no longer main contradiction, structural differentiation market emerges.
3. Dovish (downplaying rate hikes, implying high rates won’t last indefinitely)
US Treasury yields decline, risk appetite fully recovers.
• BTC: Institutional allocation funds return, testing 82000-84000 resistance.
• Storage stocks: Valuation opens up, enjoying valuation repair; AI capital expenditure expectations warm up, storage sector rebounds, high elasticity targets rise stronger.
Core similarities and differences summary
Common points: Both highly sensitive to US Treasury yields, basically move in the same direction; hawkish both fall, dovish both rise, neutral depends on own fundamentals.
Differences:
1. BTC has "digital gold" hedging attribute, with independent buying in extreme inflation; storage stocks purely growth cycle logic, no hedging attribute.
2. Storage stocks have real industry cycles, HBM supply-demand can have independent market; BTC has almost no operating cash flow, fully macro + capital + policy priced.
3. Volatility ranking: small storage ≈ SOL > secondary storage ≈ ETH > storage leaders ≈ BTC.
If tonight’s speech has an unexpectedly strong statement, it will stir both markets simultaneously; if speech is vague and neutral, BTC looks to ETF, storage stocks look to earnings and HBM supply-demand.$BTC The entire network is waiting for Wash's Jackson Hole speech at 10 PM tonight, but the vast majority are focusing on the wrong point.
The real factor affecting global asset pricing tonight is not whether there will be a rate hike in September.
The market has long priced in the expectation of no rate change; the real risk lies in how the Federal Reserve will redefine the current inflation environment and the subsequent policy path.
At this stage, US economic data is very fragmented, giving no reason for easing:
The latest initial jobless claims continue to decline, showing strong labor market resilience, with unemployment stable and no signs of economic weakening.
Meanwhile, inflation data is stubbornly high; July's PCE has stuck at 3.7% for two consecutive months, core PCE remains above 3%, still far from the Fed's 2% inflation target.
To put it bluntly: inflation has not been brought down at all, and the Fed has no basis for easing.
This is also the biggest variable tonight.
Wash is very unlikely to give a direct answer on September rates, but he will definitely set the tone for the upcoming policy framework:
Will the Fed continue to focus on stubborn inflation and keep tightening options open?
Or will it tolerate high inflation, prioritizing economic growth and financial stability?
These two stances correspond to completely opposite market movements.
If tonight's speech leans hawkish and reiterates inflation risks:
The dollar and US Treasury yields will rebound directly, and the recent BTC rally, which was supported by ETF inflows, will face a sharp pullback.
It should be noted that the core driver for BTC returning near 80,000 this round is the continuous net inflow of spot ETFs for 8 days, totaling $2.8 billion in capital support.After hawkish remarks from Waller, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all reversed gains — ETF buying is stronger than the Fed's words
Last night, Waller clearly stated that inflation is "worrisome" and the financial environment is "not restrictive," causing BTC to briefly dip below 78,000. But the market only gave it 15 minutes before a bullish candle pulled it back above 80,000. Today, BTC reached a high of $81,280, with an August gain exceeding 28%, potentially setting the largest monthly gain record since November 2024. Currently, BTC is oscillating between 80,000 and 81,000, up about 1.5% in 24 hours.
ETFs are the real driving force. Spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows for several days, with over $3 billion inflows in August. BlackRock's related wallet received 2,559 BTC in the past 9 hours.
SOL is the strongest this week. SOL has returned to $110, up 10.5% in 24 hours and about 44% overall in August, marking the strongest monthly record since 2024. Solana spot ETFs have net inflows totaling $1.22 billion. On-chain weekly transaction volume hit a record 1.32 billion.
ETH follows the rally. ETH is trading between $2,500 and $2,520, up about 0.5% in 24 hours.
Waller's hawkish remarks only impacted the market for 15 minutes. The $3 billion ETF buying in August is effectively cementing the 80,000 level as a floor.Kevin Warsh’s message is simple: inflation is NOT beaten yet. If inflation doesn’t move clearly and fast enough toward 2%, the Fed still has “work to do” — meaning rate hikes remain on the table. (Axios) And BTC is now sitting right in the middle of that macro battle. Sticky inflation → fewer rate cuts → higher yields → stronger DXY → tighter liquidity → pressure on BTC. BTC recently pushed above $80K, but a hawkish Fed could turn that breakout into a liquidity trap if buyers start taking profit🔥Devaluation trading sweeps the globe: Why Bitcoin has become the new favorite of institutions $BTC
In August 2026, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound driven by macro narratives, with a monthly increase of over 25%, once breaking through $81,000 to reach a three-month high. Unlike previous rallies dominated by retail speculation, the underlying logic of this rise has fundamentally changed—it is no longer just a story within the crypto circle but is becoming a core asset for global macro capital to reprice.
The trigger came from the U.S. Treasury. On August 19, the Treasury announced it would double the single-operation cap of its long-term bond repurchase program to $4 billion, directly lowering long-term yields, weakening the dollar, and triggering $1.29 billion in concentrated short-covering. The U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio publicly advised investors to hold Bitcoin to hedge against potential debt crisis risks, and BlackRock analysts pointed out that investors are flocking to Bitcoin and gold due to expectations of ongoing fiscal deficits eroding the dollar's purchasing power.
Deep institutional involvement is the most notable feature of this rally. In Q1 2026, about 2,000 institutional investors disclosed Bitcoin holdings in 13F filings, including long-term capital such as Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and the Norwegian Government Pension Fund. A survey by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon showed that two-thirds of surveyed institutions already hold crypto assets through spot ETFs. $BTC BTC surged to 81280 then fell back to the 80,000 level (currently fluctuating between 79700–80300), the 81,000 short positions were not filled, ETH brushed 2500 but couldn't hold, SOL rose nearly 20% this week but is still far from 200.
The more false breakouts, the tighter the long stop losses; FOMO is high but support is weakening, time favors the bears. Tonight is the debut of Wash at Jackson Hole (22:00) + 6.44 billion BTC options expiration, a two-way spike at the 80,000 level is inevitable.
The probability of the "CLARITY Act" passing Poly within the year has slid from 38% to 14%, 5 addresses simultaneously betting no, smart money is voting with their feet. Without the bill passing, compliance premiums won't rise—BTC breaking 100,000, ETH breaking 3000, SOL breaking 200 all lack anchors.
Is the bear side clinging to a dying fantasy? We'll see the outcome after the settlement from tonight to the end of the month.
Wash debut #CLARITY搁浅 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 📊 The non-farm payroll data got "called out"!
Expected employment +183,000, actual baseline revision -79,000, a full 260,000 difference.
The private sector was even harsher, directly revised down by 178,000.
This is already the second consecutive year of significant downward revisions—860,000 last year, and another 79,000 this year.
Simply put: the previous employment data was inflated; the actual jobs are not that many.
Three logical chains:
❶ Employment shortfall → rising expectations of rate cuts → USD under pressure
❷ Weak USD → risk assets like gold $XAU, $BTC, $SNDK favored
❸ Data reliability questioned → market trust declines
But the most critical point: this data was released simultaneously with the speech by Warsh at Jackson Hole.
• Warsh dovish → combined with employment downward revision, risk assets surge
• Warsh hawkish → offsets data benefits, causing back-and-forth volatility
• Warsh ambiguous → market interprets as "rate cuts inevitable," leaning bullish
The news-driven market volatility is huge, easily triggering stop losses back and forth.
Don't chase with heavy positions; always use stop losses
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Wash did not turn dovish; instead, he spoke the words the market least wanted to hear.
After watching the full speech, Wash's policy stance has not softened noticeably. What is truly worth being cautious about is one sentence: current broad financial conditions are hardly restrictive.
This means the Federal Reserve does not believe that high interest rates have sufficiently suppressed demand.
The data also supports his caution: PCE year-on-year is still 3.7%, with about half of the subcomponents rising over 3%; although recent inflation has improved, Wash clearly stated that this is not enough to prove that the underlying inflation trend has significantly weakened.
At the same time, the U.S. economy remains resilient, the labor market is stable, and the Federal Reserve is not currently under pressure to cut rates due to growth or employment.
So the most important conclusion tonight is not "rate hikes immediately," but:
The threshold for rate cuts remains very high, and the option to raise rates has not been taken off the table.
For BTC, the real test is just beginning. If after a hawkish speech it can still hold $80,000, it means spot buying support is strong enough; if the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise simultaneously and BTC breaks key support, high-level bulls need to guard against a re-pricing of expectations.
Wash did not give the market sugar; he gave conditions: if inflation does not return to 2% fast enough, the Federal Reserve will not easily back down. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Tonight at 10 PM is a major moment for the capital markets, as the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is grandly convened, and the global capital markets are all waiting for a "response" from Powell. Over the years, the Federal Reserve Chair's keynote speeches at the Jackson Hole Symposium have often been linked to announcements of key policy shifts.
But this year is special because internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are particularly severe. After Powell's speech today, the US stock market will be the first to fluctuate.
My view is that Powell and Trump are in the same boat; no matter how much pressure Powell faces, he will bear it. I firmly believe the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is negligible, almost equal to zero. Most likely, rates will remain unchanged, and if there is a surprise, it would be a rate cut.
Given the relationship between Trump and Powell, I think the probability of a rate cut next month is not small.After watching Warsh's speech, I feel that what the market really needs to reprice is a more troublesome matter:
From now on, you can't expect the Federal Reserve to tell you how to trade next.
Warsh's attitude is actually very clear—although PCE and CPI look temporarily good, they are not enough to prove that underlying inflation has completely returned to 2%; he also did not give a clear policy direction for September, nor is he willing to provide a fixed "reaction function."
This may not be good news for BTC in the short term.
Because the market used to follow a simple logic:
Worsening data → rising expectations of rate cuts → improved liquidity → BTC rises.
But now this chain is becoming increasingly unreliable.
Especially when the market has priced the probability of a September rate hike close to 50%, the real danger is not the word "rate hike" itself, but a sudden reversal of expectations.
If subsequent inflation and employment data continue to be strong, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and BTC is likely to come under pressure first.
But I don't think this means the market is completely bearish.
On the contrary,
Whether BTC can still maintain its trend under less favorable macro conditions.
If it can, it means the market's pricing logic is changing—BTC is increasingly like an independent asset, rather than simply following the Federal Reserve.
When the Federal Reserve starts to "talk less," can the market still find its own direction?
This may be more worth watching than whether there is a rate hike in September.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Bitcoin’s rally above $80K isn’t just another crypto move. For years, BTC traded like a high-beta tech bet. Now the market is increasingly treating it as a hedge against monetary debasement, sovereign debt concerns, and weakening confidence in fiat currencies. Its correlation with gold is rising while its correlation with equities is fading. That’s a major shift. When investors start buying Bitcoin for the same reasons they buy gold, the addressable market becomes much larger than crypto alone. Seven years ago, Wang Sicong called Sun Yuchen an idiot, saying his Buffett lunch was full of leeks. A few months later, Panda Live closed down, and Wang Sicong was listed as a person subject to enforcement, while Sun Yuchen publicly said he was willing to help pay off his debts. According to Forbes data in August 2026, Sun Yuchen's personal net worth was about $8.5 billion, while the Wang Jianlin family had about $4.4 billion. But their situations are far more complicated than the numbers suggest. In July 2026, Wang Sicong stepped down as a director from Wanda's core entity for the third time. Nearly 2 billion yuan in Panda Live's investment was completely lost, the steak chain survived just over a year before closing all stores, and in the first half of 2026, six new asset-light companies were invested, and the company is searching for direction amid the pains of transformation. Sun Yuchen's book numbers are astonishing, holding over 60 billion TRX tokens, accounting for about 63% of global circulation (about 17,000 Bitcoins), but since 2018, media reports have included him on border control lists, causing him to stay abroad for a long time. His lawsuit with Jing Tian is ongoing, and the backlash from token issuance operations is accumulating. Wang Sicong represents the old wealth logic, relying on physical assets and family resources, passively contracting during the real estate downturn. Sun Yuchen represents the new wealth logic, relying on digital assets and attention economy, but there is a huge gap between paper wealth and actual controllability. This is not a story of who wins or loses, but two eras have left different marks on two people. The old version of arrogance has been liquidated, and the new bubble is far from falling. Wang Sicong hoped to expand new territory in the new economy by stepping on the bubble of old real estate money, but it was all overwhelmed by the bubble, and the future is over. Sun Yuchen is just getting cockyDon't just focus on $BTC's $80K, nor only on $ETH's $2.5K
What truly determines the market trend might not be the price at all
Because the current market has no consensus expectations formed
In the latest pricing, the probability of maintaining the interest rate in September is about 66.3%, while the probability of a rate hike is 33.7%
In other words:
The market is not waiting for a "definite answer"
The market is waiting for a statement to decide which direction to crash next
This is also why I think tonight is the most noteworthy
The direction may not be complicated, but the volatility could be very large
If Warsh's tone leans dovish:
Inflationary pressure is easing;
No need for further tightening;
There is still room to improve financial conditions in the future
Then the market will likely interpret it directly as a Risk-On signal
If $BTC retakes $80K, the upside space will reopen
If Eth stands back above $2,500, it means the previous weak structure may start to reverse, and the next target will naturally look back near $2,530
And those altcoins that have already started moving early may see real capital following the trend
But conversely
If Warsh clearly leans hawkish:
Inflation remains sticky
Current financial conditions are still insufficient
A rate hike is not ruled out as a policy option
Then it's a completely different script
Risk assets may be repriced immediately
So tonight I won't guess "whether Warsh will make the market rise"
What I care more about is:
Whether his wording can lead the market from "divergence" to "consensus"
Because the most dangerous thing now is never having no direction
But everyone waiting for direction
Once the answer appears, prices usually won't give you much reaction time
What to really watch tonight is not $80K and $2.5K themselves
But—
After Warsh speaks, which side the market chooses to stand on, long or short, will be the conclusion
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $ETH ETH hasn't moved much, but institutions are still quietly buying
The most interesting thing about ETH right now is:
The price looks stable, but the capital hasn't stopped.
The chart shows that institutional buying of Ethereum has been inflowing for 11 consecutive days, and exchange balances are continuously decreasing. In other words, coins are moving from exchanges to longer-term wallets. The short-term candlesticks aren't lively, but the chip structure is changing.
This is also why I think ETH shouldn't be judged only by daily price changes here.
BTC is stuck around 80,000, while ETH is quietly strengthening, and the ETH/BTC rate has reached a near one-month high.
But don't blindly FOMO.
ETH has already risen quite a bit in the past month, and the upward momentum is slowing, with a slight increase in large holders' short positions. The real key is whether ETF inflows can continue and whether exchange balances will reverse.
In short:
ETH isn't without market action; it's waiting for the next confirming candlestick.
#ETH #Ethereum #ETF #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $ETH August 28 $BTC Night Session Analysis: Walsh's Speech Full of Hawkish Tone, $80,000 Gained and Lost
On the night of August 28, Bitcoin experienced a "rally and pullback" session. During the day, BTC once strongly broke through $81,000, reaching an intraday high of $81,520, continuing a strong rebound of over 28% since August. However, after Federal Reserve Chair Walsh's Jackson Hole speech, the market quickly turned cautious, and BTC promptly dropped about 0.89% to $78,620. By the night session, BTC was quoted at $78,845, down 1.70% over 24 hours, with intraday volatility exceeding $3,100.
Walsh's speech was full of hawkish tone, becoming the direct trigger for the nighttime pullback. Walsh clearly stated that the current Fed policy focus should be on price issues—the PCE price index rose 3.7% year-over-year over 12 months and 4.1% over six months, both far above the 2% target. He expressed reservations about "forward guidance," believing that over-sharing policy details might mislead the market. This statement shattered some market hopes for a "dovish shift," and the crypto market quickly dropped within fifteen minutes after the speech.
The $81,000 to $83,000 range is currently the most critical resistance zone. QCP Capital previously pointed out that BTC was approaching the key resistance level of $83,300 before the Jackson Hole meeting. Analysts generally believe that $81,000–$83,000 is the intersection of the May high and the 365-day moving average, defined as the "ultimate touchstone" for trend reversal. BTC was clearly rejected near $81,500 during the night and quickly fell back, confirming the effectiveness of this resistance zone.
The good news is that the foundation of the upward structure has not collapsed. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, accumulating over $2.6–2.8 billion in inflows. Bitcoin futures open interest dropped from about 646,000 BTC in mid-August to about 588,000 BTC, and the funding rate remained low—indicating that this round of rally was mainly driven by short covering and spot buying, rather than new leveraged long positions. Coinbase relative to Binance showed a premium again for the first time in about three months, suggesting that US institutional capital allocation is returning.
Key levels: the first resistance zone is $81,000–$81,500 above; $83,300 is the mid-term "bull-bear dividing line"; below, $78,000–$78,500 is the first line of defense, and if broken, $76,600 will become a key test level.
Summary: BTC fell from the high near $81,500 to around $78,800 after Walsh's hawkish speech, confirming the effectiveness of the $81,000 to $83,000 resistance zone. Continuous ETF inflows and spot buying form bottom support, but Walsh's "focus on prices" statement means rate cuts are unlikely in the short term, and the "devaluation trade" logic faces re-examination. Investors are advised to strictly control positions, closely watch the $78,000 support level, and wait for the market to digest Walsh's speech before making trend decisions.ETH flash drop to 2465 then quickly recovered: This time, I’m more focused on "who is buying the dip"
ETH just experienced a very typical short-term liquidity shock.
From the chart, the price suddenly plunged from around $2500 to a low of $2465, then quickly bounced back to around $2490. More importantly, both the drop and the rebound were accompanied by significant volume — this was not an ordinary narrow-range fluctuation but a concentrated chip exchange.
Today ETH has a special context: about $900 million worth of Deribit ETH options are expiring, with around 360,000 contracts open before expiration, and a Put/Call ratio close to 0.94, indicating a monthly settlement with relatively concentrated long and short positions.
However, I believe what’s truly worth paying attention to is not the options themselves, but the brief divergence between capital flow and price.
On August 27, the US spot ETH ETF continued to record a net inflow of about $235 million, marking the ninth consecutive trading day of net inflows, with BlackRock ETHA alone contributing about $130 million in a single day. This means that at least from the ETF side, mid-term capital has not clearly retreated despite ETH surpassing $2500.
So now there is a very interesting structure:
Mid-term capital is still flowing in, but short-term leveraged funds are fiercely competing.
Back to the 15-minute chart, the 2465 flash drop has not yet formed an effective breakdown, as the price quickly recovered to near the lower Bollinger Band at 2480; however, the $2495–$2500 range has already become the first key resistance that must be reclaimed.
I will focus on two possible developments:
If 2465 is not broken again and ETH stabilizes above $2500–$2515, then this recent drop looks more like a leverage cleanup. Especially with continuous ETF inflows, once the price breaks above today’s high near 2535, the market may retest the previous 2566 area.
But if the rebound fails to hold above $2500 and then volume increases again with a break below 2465, the nature is completely different — indicating that the first flash drop was not a complete cleanup but only the first support during the decline, and the short-term structure will gradually shift from high-level consolidation to a real correction.
Therefore, I won’t blindly turn bullish just because of continuous ETF inflows, nor will I assume the market is over just because of one big bearish candle.
The ETF tells us whether mid-term capital is willing to allocate to ETH;
While whether 2465 holds tells us if the short-term market is willing to keep buying ETH above $2500.
One is a capital trend, the other is price confirmation.
Only when both are true do we have a truly quality bullish structure.
What’s most worth watching now is whether this 2465 flash drop is a "leverage washout" or the market’s first signal of weakening. $ETH $CRV USDT perpetual 50x short position, entry at 0.3282, mark at 0.3161, floating profit +184.33%. Background: On August 19, the US Treasury's expanded bond repurchase triggered a rebound in macro risk appetite, combined with a historic short squeeze (over 3 billion shorts liquidated in 24h), CRV as a high Beta asset surged sharply.
On August 21, whale bottom-fishing and Upbit listing rumors pushed the price higher, but at the protocol level there is no buyback mechanism. Although Epoch 6 took effect on August 12 reducing emissions to 97.2 million tokens, it still struggles against monthly unlock selling pressure. The 50x short precisely timed the downward wave after all positive news was exhausted and long leverage was cleaned out. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ BTC surged to 81,520 before quickly falling back; the real test is just beginning
Last night, BTC once surged to $81,520, but this breakout did not hold. Now, on the 15-minute chart, it has fallen back to around $78,900, with an intraday low touching $78,388, representing a rapid retracement of over 3% from the high.
This move deserves attention because the market just completed a major event today: about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options officially expired and settled.
Deribit data shows that approximately 81,700 BTC options settled at 08:00 UTC this round, with a settlement price around $79,682. This means that the large option positions and related hedging demands previously centered around $75,000 and $80,000 are now exiting the market.
So the BTC we see now is actually in a different trading environment than when it surged to 81,500 last night.
From the chart, the short-term structure has clearly weakened.
After forming the high at 81,520, BTC has consecutively made lower highs, and the price has dropped below MA5, MA10, and MA20; the 15-minute BOLL middle band is near $79,300, while the current price even briefly pierced the lower band at $78,767.
But there is one detail I am more focused on:
After the rapid drop to $78,388, there was an obvious volume-backed recovery.
This indicates that the $78,300–$78,700 area has seen the first round of support, so we cannot simply define this as a trend reversal yet. It looks more like the market is testing: after the option expiration and the disappearance of the "price anchor" near $80,000, where exactly is the real spot buying interest?
I will mainly watch two levels next.
First, $79,300–$79,800.
This is the short-term moving averages + BOLL middle band + previous dense trading area. If BTC cannot reclaim this zone, then the 81,520 peak looks more like a liquidity-driven spike, and the short-term remains dominated by bears.
Second, $78,388.
This is today's newly formed low. If a rebound fails and this level is broken again, it means the volume-backed support failed, and the market may continue to seek a lower level of support.
Conversely, if the area near $78,300 holds and BTC recovers above $79,800 or even $80,000, then today's sell-off might actually be the first chip cleansing after the option settlement.
I am not rushing to be bearish just because of a 3% drop, nor am I bottom-fishing just because of a wick rebound.
81,520 tells us there are sellers above, and 78,388 tells us buyers are starting below.
What will truly decide BTC's direction next is no longer the $6.4 billion options that have expired, but where spot funds are willing to re-enter after these derivative positions exit.
This might be the most important thing to watch tonight. $BTC #BTC surged then pulled back, with options expiry amplifying the key level game BTC surged to around $81,300 last night, hitting a nearly three-month high, but after breaking through $80,000, it did not continue accelerating and then fell back to the $79,000–$80,000 range. On the surface, this looks like a normal surge and pullback, but today's timing is special—August 28 is exactly the BTC monthly options concentrated expiry date.
Deribit's BTC options nominal value for this expiry is about $6–6.4 billion, nearly 80,000 contracts, with the market's biggest pain point concentrated near $69,000. More notably, there are concentrated option positions near $75,000 and $80,000, so BTC's current position is one of the most sensitive areas for long-short Gamma and market maker hedging.
Therefore, I believe the surge and pullback above $80,000 last night should not be simply interpreted as "the end of the rally."
Before options expiry, market makers maintain Delta neutrality by continuously adjusting spot and perpetual contract exposure as prices change; after a large number of contracts settle, the original hedging demand begins to unwind, and the market's short-term price structure may change significantly.
What really deserves attention is not whether BTC is pulled back to $69,000 by the so-called "max pain," but whether it can hold above $80,000 after options settlement.
If after settlement BTC can still hold the $78,000–$79,000 area and launch another attack on $80,000–$81,300, it indicates this pullback was mostly a high-level chip exchange, and trend funds have not clearly retreated.
Conversely, if after options expiry BTC loses hedging fund support and continues to fall below the recent breakout area, then the $81,300 level last night may have been a typical liquidity sweep—first breaking the previous high to attract chasing funds, then completing a high-level turnover.
So now I am not in a hurry to guess the direction.
Options expiry itself is neither bearish nor bullish; it is more like removing some "external forces" temporarily affecting the price. The real direction often depends on who is willing to continue putting real money into the market after these positions are cleared.
Next, I will focus on two levels:
Holding above $80,000 → last night's breakout remains valid;
Losing near $78,000 → beware this breakout turning into a bull trap.
The truly valuable signal today may not be the volatility before expiry, but the direction the market chooses after expiry.
Do you think the $81,300 move last night was a shakeout before the breakout, or has it already completed a bull trap in advance? Bro, just checked the market, Bitcoin is hovering around $80,000 now, up about 1.4% in the last 24 hours, with an overnight high touching $81,280. Ethereum is at $2,497, up 0.07%, basically flat. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached $270 million, longs and shorts are basically balanced, with shorts slightly more, indicating bulls are not aggressively chasing highs at this level. The core reasons Bitcoin can retake $80,000 are still those few factors: the US Treasury's buyback plan has suppressed US bond yields, the logic of "currency depreciation trade" remains. More importantly, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows exceeding $2.6 billion for eight consecutive trading days, with over $3 billion inflow in August alone, marking the strongest monthly performance since 2026. This rally has shifted from previous short squeezes to genuine institutional allocation demand. Additionally, the surge in US tech stocks has boosted risk appetite, and Bitcoin on Coinbase is again trading at a premium to Binance, indicating institutional demand in the US is indeed returning. How it moves tomorrow depends crucially on Fed Chair Warsh's speech tonight at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The market currently prices about a 35% chance of another rate hike in September, which is a potential hawkish risk. If the speech leans hawkish, Bitcoin might retest support at $79,000 or even the $77,000-$78,000 range; if dovish or without unexpectedly hawkish content, once $81,300 is broken, the next target is $83,Tonight's candlestick was somewhat troubling. $BTC During the day, the high reached $81,280. As soon as the market began discussing when 82,000 would be broken, Wash poured cold water on Jackson Hole. His stance was clear: if inflation cannot continue to fall back to 2%, the Fed still has the possibility of raising interest rates. After the news broke, BTC hit a low near $78,535, while $80,000 returned to resistance. But this decline was somewhat different from previous months. A U.S. BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $242 million on August 27, marking nine consecutive trading days of inflows; ETH ETFs also attracted funds for nine consecutive days, with a single-day net inflow of about $235 million. SOL and HYPE ETFs also recorded net inflows of about $60.91 million and $24.42 million, respectively. In other words, this round of rally is not just a short squeeze in the futures market; spot funds are indeed entering the market. The problem is that as August 29 marks the start of the weekend, U.S. ETF trading is suspended, and there is less stable buying on the market. If trading volume drops in the next two days, one or two large orders could push prices to look bad. BTC should first target $78,000–$78,500 tomorrow. This is close to tonight's low and also a key support zone in the recent rally. If it holds, it's highly likely to continue grinding back and forth between 78,500 and 80,500; Only when volume increases and it climbs above 80,000 will it qualify to challenge 81,300–82,000. If 78,000 is effectively breached, the next pullback may be to find 7,65080,000 has held again, but now is not a buying point, it's a profit-taking zone! 🔥
BTC today returned to $80,200, the 80,000 level has been crossed back and forth 4 times in 8 days, today is the third time it has stood above it again—a typical failed breakout with repeated topping.
Three signals tell you to reduce positions rather than enter:
① Buying momentum is slowing down. ETF net inflows have continued for 9 days, but the initial value on 8/27 was only +$42.6 million, halving twice from the peak single-day $300 million+. The fuel for the short squeeze is running out.
② Long liquidations have replaced short squeezes. On 8/26, long liquidations hit $270 million in a single day, a mirror image of the short squeeze bloodbath at the beginning of the month—the market makers are offloading to those chasing highs.
③ Tonight is a do-or-die moment. At 22:00, Warsh's Jackson Hole debut, a hawkish comment could turn 80,000 into a ceiling; combined with $817 million options expiry, volatility is about to explode.
Key levels: 81,160 is this week's high (failure to break = bull trap), 82,000-83,000 is the bull-bear dividing line, only breaking above qualifies for buying talk; below 77,800-78,000 watch for the 75,500 trend lifeline.
Conclusion: Above 80,000, only do one thing—take profits and lock in gains, reduce positions in batches, absolutely no new longs. If you really want to buy, wait for a volume breakout daily close above 81,250 + no break below 80,000 the next day, then the right side is alive. Tonight's macro + options double whammy, holding spot overnight is gambling. Missing out doesn't lose money, chasing the top resets to zero.🩸🚨【Waller's Speech Delivered! Tonight's Most Important Market Signal Has Arrived】
At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Waller will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting.
Conclusion first:
🦅 Hawkish, but not hawkish enough to "hint at a September rate hike."
What really deserves attention tonight is not the word "rate hike," but Waller clearly cooling down the market's expectations for rate cuts.
🔴 First, inflation remains the core issue.
Waller emphasized that U.S. inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for a prolonged period.
Recent improvements in CPI and PCE do not mean inflation is completely resolved.
Translated into market language:
Don't rush to bet on a quick Fed rate cut.
🔴 Second, Waller's attitude toward "forward guidance" has changed noticeably.
He believes the Fed should not frequently tell the market what it will do in the future.
Going forward, the market may need to rely more on:
👉 CPI
👉 PCE
👉 Nonfarm Payrolls
👉 GDP
👉 Financial conditions
Rather than simply guessing the Fed's next move.
This means:
The Fed's policy communication may become more flexible, and market volatility could increase.
🟡 Third, no direct signal of a "September rate hike" was released.
This is very important.
So tonight is not a super hawkish shock.
A more accurate understanding is:
Not telling the market "I am going to hike rates," but telling the market "Don't take it for granted that I will cut rates."
📉 So how about BTC?
The short-term logic remains bearish:
Waller hawkish
↓
Rate cut expectations cool down
↓
Dollar/U.S. Treasury yields get support
↓
Risk assets under pressure
↓
BTC faces short-term pressure
But it cannot yet be simply understood as "speech = BTC must fall."
What really needs to be observed in the next few hours:
Will U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise?
Will the dollar index strengthen?
Can BTC reclaim key levels?
If U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise and BTC keeps weakening:
⚠️ Beware of further risk asset pullbacks.
If U.S. Treasury yields spike then fall back, and BTC quickly recovers losses:
Then the market may be telling you:
Although Waller is hawkish, he has not truly changed the rate expectations for September and the rest of the year.
🔥 So the only keyword I give tonight is:
"Rate cut expectations cooling down, not rate hikes landing."
The real battlefield ahead,
Is not the speech itself,
But the linkage between U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC prices.
#FederalReserve #Waller #JacksonHole #BTC #Bitcoin #Gold #USStock #RateCutTo be honest, tonight's speech by Wosh should not cause much volatility in the crypto circle or the US stock market. The theme of tonight's meeting is about financial innovation, and he is very unlikely to mention any short-term directives regarding whether the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates in September.
In fact, the reason for not cutting interest rates is very simple. Although it seems that inflation in the US is currently under control, the Federal Reserve always emphasizes a rigid 2% inflation constraint. I actually suspect that the real inflation might be far above 2%, otherwise they wouldn't keep stressing it every day. Cutting interest rates would immediately cause inflation to spiral out of control.
By reverse reasoning, theoretically, cutting interest rates can reduce the interest on US Treasury bonds, lowering future principal and interest repayment pressure. At the same time, lower borrowing costs promote the development of the US domestic manufacturing industry chain and employment, and also benefit the capital markets. But the delay in cutting rates indicates that there must be other economic indicators that need more control than the above. Besides inflation, I can't think of any others. Of course, there might be concerns about capital outflow due to reduced interest rate spreads (but this is probably minor).
As for the crypto market rally, I don't think it is caused by interest rate-related factors. It is more inclined to be due to the decline in the profit-making effect of the US stock market and technology sector (diminishing marginal utility). Smart money has chosen markets with lower prices!
#WoshAppearsAtJacksonHoleTonight, Can He Clarify The Policy Framework? #EarningsObserver: AI Demand Spreads From Hardware To Software #BTC Surges Then Pulls Back, Options Expiry Amplifies Key Level Battles $BTC $ETH $TRUMP @GeniusTraderGreenHair @GeniusGirlQiuQiu Three reasons for the decline
1. Profit-taking in advance: The cumulative increase in August has exceeded 28%, with a large number of short-term chips above 80,000 choosing to lock in profits. After an early surge to 81,400, the rebound lacked strength to return to the high point, and short-term selling pressure persists.
2. Market betting on a "hawkish" stance: 57% of USD options funds bet on a hawkish tone in Walsh's speech. Kansas City Fed President George Schmidtl hinted early that current rates are "still accommodative," and PCE inflation at 3.3% is higher than the expected 3.2%. The market expects Walsh to "possibly continue emphasizing the anti-inflation stance," so it fell before the speech out of caution.
3. $6.4 billion options expire today: The maximum pain point is 68,000, far below the spot price, and market makers' hedging operations themselves are creating downward pull. $BTC $ETH $MOVE #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 🚨 MARVELL BEAT THE QUARTER… SO WHY IS $MRVL DOWN 8%?
That’s the real signal heading into Friday.
$MRVL delivered a strong quarter: $2.739B in revenue, up 37% YoY, with Data Center revenue jumping 46%. Management also raised its FY2027 and FY2028 revenue outlooks and still expects a major Custom acceleration starting in 2H FY2027.
Yet the stock is getting hit.
At 6:15am CT: $MRVL -8%
$SNDK -2%
$MU -2%
$WDC -1%
Meanwhile, the direct AI leaders are holding up:
#DailyOrbit