Orbit Post Sitemap
After Waller's speech, an interesting signal appeared in the market: the 2-year US Treasury yield rose, while the 30-year yield actually fell.
This curve change is actually quite healthy. The short-end rate rising indicates the market has accepted the recent monetary policy tightening reality, without self-deception or fantasizing about easing. The long-end rate not soaring out of control means the market is not worried that the Fed has lost control over inflation — this is the most important.
For growth stocks, this is good news. The decline in long-term rates lowers the discount rate for future cash flows, naturally easing valuation pressure. Tight in the short term, stable in the long term, actually gives high-valuation assets some breathing room.
The market is voting with the yield curve: short-term pain is acceptable, but long-term confidence remains.What does Walsh's first Jackson Hole speech mean for the crypto market? Federal Reserve Chairman Mark delivered his first speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Overall, it was a hawkish speech: although no rate hike was announced directly, it clearly shattered the market's optimistic expectation that monetary policy would soon shift to easing. Walsh stated that the Fed must see inflation clearly and quickly return to the 2% target, or further action will be necessary. Currently, U.S. PCE inflation is 3.7% year-on-year, and the decline over the past two years has not been ideal. Meanwhile, U.S. employment, consumption, corporate investment, and credit markets remain resilient, and the overall financial environment is not particularly tight. This means that if inflation remains high, the Fed may still raise rates. After the speech, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September rose from about 35% to nearly 50%, the dollar index rose, and short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose. These changes are generally bearish for the crypto market. First, after U.S. Treasury yields rise, holding dollars and short-term Treasuries yields higher returns, making highly volatile assets like Bitcoin less attractive. Second, a stronger dollar usually means tighter global liquidity, which is unfavorable for BTC, ETH, and altcoin valuations. Finally, persistently high interest rates increase leverage costs, which can easily trigger concentrated liquidations in the futures market. Looking at coin performance, Bitcoin is supported by ETF funds and may have stronger resilience than other crypto assets. However, BTC has already rebounded quickly from about $64,000 to around $80,000, accumulating considerable wealth9. LME copper prices continue to hit record highs, with the non-ferrous metals cyclical sector strengthening
LME copper prices keep breaking historical highs. AI computing power, new energy, and power grid upgrades drive sustained demand. Global new copper mine capacity is limited, and supply is tight, leading to significantly improved interim results for copper companies in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Commodities are highly influenced by global macro liquidity; once overseas monetary policies shift, copper prices face rapid correction risks. The cyclical sector experiences high volatility, so investors need to view the price increase theme rationally. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP rose 160% in 10 days, climbing from 1.37 straight up to 3.6. The White House crypto summit and the CLARITY Act were introduced. New coin rumors triggered FOMO, RSI is overbought, trading volume abnormally surged—a typical high-level oscillation after an overheated rebound. First, new coin rumors pumped the price; after the rumors were debunked, selling occurred. This script is too familiar. Someone leaked that Trump was going to issue a new coin; spot price jumped from 1.4 directly to 3.6 as retail investors FOMOed in. Eric Trump then clarified there was no new coin, calling it a scam, and the price promptly fell back. Rumor-driven pump disproved, followed by selling. This assembly line has run countless times. Retail investors are still rushing into the Trump bull market, while related internal wallets have already transferred tokens to OKEx to cash out millions of dollars. Second, the White House meeting is real, but a meeting doesn’t equal a pump. Trump met with crypto executives urging Congress to advance market structure legislation, narratively reigniting the pro-crypto president image. This is indeed positive, but after the good news is priced in, then what? The CLARITY Act is procedural progress, not implementation. Mid-September progress will give another emotional pulse, but after the pulse, selling is highly likely. The biggest fear for meme coins is not lack of buyers, but insiders selling when you rush in. Third, a technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared. From 1.37 to 3.6, a 170% rise in 10 days is a triple resonance of oversold rebound, short squeeze, and rumors—not a healthy trend. Now, the price has pulled back from 3.6 to 2.8, a secondary rebound after the peak, not a main upward continuation. AboveRegarding SanDisk, the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged. Its $93.9 billion in long-term contracts provide strong revenue visibility for the years ahead, and the longer-term price targets from investors still look reasonable.
However, the short-term picture is different. The stock had rallied too aggressively, prompting profit-taking, while sentiment across the tech sector cooled and its latest guidance came in below expctations.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
MicroStrategy, once the top bull, has now changed its approach.
This has two layers of impact on the crypto community.
First, the market's most steadfast bull has paused, which definitely affects short-term sentiment. People were used to Saylor calling trades weekly and continuously buying, but now that expectation is gone. However, this is not a signal that the bull market is over; he has always added positions at the bottom, just with a different strategy.
Second, in the medium to long term, this is actually a good thing. Previously, the high-leverage cycle, once broken, would cause a chain reaction of liquidations. Now, with a $5.1 billion cash reserve plus 840,000 BTC holdings, the foundation is more stable. He himself said he won't be forced to sell coins at low prices. He can survive without cutting losses, and the coins he holds will only become more valuable.
Here’s my take.
Saylor switching from reckless buying to survival mode precisely shows that this old fox is clearer-headed than anyone. With a $10 billion unrealized loss on the books and $1.76 billion in annual interest payments, borrowing more to buy coins would be truly self-destructive. Stockpiling cash, stabilizing preferred shares, and holding firmly onto 840,000 BTC means he can strike back whenever the opportunity arises.
MicroStrategy pausing purchases puts short-term pressure on sentiment, but their core holdings remain untouched, with $5.1 billion cash on hand. The direction won't reverse just because of one strategy change.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP $NOW (ServiceNow) — Closed at $138.43, up +10.04% for the day
$NOW rose 10.04% today, with an intraday high of $139.32 and a low of $130.25, trading volume around 27.71 million shares.
After enterprises adopt AI, the most practical issue is not how smart the model is, but whether it can integrate into the company's actual workflows.
This is where $NOW's value lies. It manages internal corporate approvals, IT services, and automation processes. For AI agents to truly assist employees in completing tasks, they need to connect to these systems.
However, today's market is trading on the AI value of the entire enterprise software sector, which does not necessarily mean every company will achieve the same revenue.
Around $130 is short-term support, and around $139.30 is resistance. Going forward, the focus is not whether the sector can continue to rise together, but whether $NOW's AI capabilities can increase contract amounts and renewal rates.
I am Yuvi. After AI enters enterprises, the model is just the brain; the workflow determines whether it can truly get things done. 沃什讲话后加密市场波动不大 BTC十五分钟跌约0.89%，ETH跌约1.3% 核心原因在于“鹰派但无意外”与“提前定价”的组合。 讲话本身没有打破预期 沃什明确表示通胀依旧过高 2%目标“坚定不移、不容更改” 当前金融环境“很难称得上具有明显限制性” 表态偏向鹰派，但讲话前市场预期的9月加息概率已升至40% 沃什的表态基本在市场已有的定价范围内 他还明确拒绝发布前瞻指引 称“过度分享政策讨论细节可能误导市场” 市场最想要的方向性答案落空了 BTC在讲话前已经涨过一轮了 过去一周BTC从约64,000美元拉升至接近80,000美元 部分涨幅就是在定价宏观事件 讲话落地后的小幅下跌 更像是典型的“买预期，卖事实”获利了结 而非对讲话内容的恐慌反应 AI话题冲淡了即时冲击力 沃什花了相当篇幅讨论AI对生产率和经济的长期影响 这部分内容与短期货币政策无关 稀释了讲话的“即时冲击力” 市场结构本身也在等方向 讲话前加密市场已在横盘整理 交易员不愿在大事件前重仓押注 BTC四小时RSI已从超买回落至中性 市场正在从“降息”逻辑转向“更高更久”的利率预期 需要新的催化剂才能打破僵局 接下来盯什么？ with AAVE up 33% in the week to launch, Ghost Pass can widen Aave's app reach but adds little near-term support. 50k waitlist signups do not fund the vault. users must retain deposits for spreads to reach the DAO, then governance decides whether revenue reaches AAVE holders.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Walsh's debut is clearly hawkish: The real risk for BTC is not the absence of rate cuts, but that "high interest rates are not over yet" The signals Walsh sent at Jackson Hole are tougher than the market expected. The core logic is simple: inflation is still too high, and current financial conditions can hardly be called truly restrictive. He clearly stated that if inflation does not sustainably and significantly fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do"; meanwhile, the labor maETF has continuous net inflows, but the nature of the two types of funds is completely different, so don't be misled by surface data
BTC and ETH spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with the total weekly inflow hitting a nearly 10-month high. BlackRock is the main buyer. However, there is a structural difference that is easy to overlook:
In BTC-ETF, a large portion comes from long-term allocation funds such as pension funds and endowment funds, which hold long-term after purchase, forming the market base and rarely redeem frequently.
In contrast, ETH-ETF has a more complex fund structure. Besides long-term allocation, a large amount comes from macro hedging and swing trading funds. These funds enter the market to speculate on short-term catch-up rallies, and once macro data falls short of expectations, they quickly redeem and exit.
I just got unstuck this afternoon and didn’t leave, now I’m stuck again. Interesting.
The direct result on the market is: on days with ETF inflows, $BTC buying is solid with support on pullbacks; $ETH has strong upward impulses but weaker sustainability, and it is easy to face selling pressure after surging.
Many traders simply equate ETF net inflows with blind buying, ignoring the nature of the funds. Now with intensive macro data releases, such as unemployment benefits and Michigan consumer sentiment being published in succession, the speed of swing funds entering and exiting will accelerate. Continuous ETF inflows represent support at the base but do not mean deep pullbacks won’t occur. Futures trading cannot rely solely on ETF data as a trading basis.Just watched Walsh's speech, and as expected, it had little impact on the market; the trend continues as it was. He opposes forward-looking guidance and hopes everyone interprets the current environment on their own. Naturally, he won't intervene proactively; unless in extreme situations, the market is still left to digest on its own. Regarding specific asset prices, after most selling is done, new buyers willing to continue investing will naturally drive prices up, and vice versa. It can be said that after events that directly affect the market occur, people only realize it belatedly, meaning 99.9% of events are just noise. $BTC $SNDK 杰克逊霍尔年会进入关键时刻，市场今晚的注意力几乎都集中在沃什的首次公开讲话。结合当前宏观环境，有几个变量值得重点盯住： 📌 讲话前的市场背景 · 政策不确定性升温：这是沃什履新后的重要公开亮相，此前他对未来利率路径保持谨慎，并未给出清晰的前瞻指引，债券市场因此出现明显波动。今晚能否释放更清晰的政策框架，将直接影响市场预期。 · 通胀仍有压力：最新数据显示，美国核心个人消费支出物价指数同比约 3.1%，依然明显高于美联储 2% 的长期目标。部分官员仍担心通胀黏性，市场因此重新评估未来利率路径。 📈 市场在期待什么？ 目前市场普遍认为，沃什未必会直接给出明确的加息或降息信号，更可能强调通胀、就业以及金融条件之间的平衡。 真正值得关注的不是一句话，而是他对 通胀趋势、利率水平和金融环境 的整体描述。 ⚠️ 波动风险不能低估 历史上，杰克逊霍尔讲话有时只是带来短暂扰动，但如果措辞明显偏鹰，风险资产可能迅速重新定价。尤其是当前 $BTC 正处于关键区间，美股、美元和美债收益率的同步变化，都可能放大加密市场波动。 今晚重点看三件事： 1️⃣ 沃什是否释放明确的利率方向 2️⃣ 美债收益率和美元#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Warsh's debut at Jackson Hole tonight, can he clarify the policy framework?
Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole landed with a tone more hawkish than the market expected.
As his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office, the core statement was very clear: the 2% inflation target measured by PCE is "firm and unshakable." Recent inflation data beating expectations does not mean the underlying trend has meaningfully improved. The Fed's current primary focus is on prices.
The most critical sentence: "We must be confident that core inflation is clearly and quickly moving back to target, or else we have more work to do," which directly leaves room for further rate hikes. At the same time, he reiterated that short-term interest rates are the main policy tool, unconventional policies are only for real crises, continued to defend abandoning forward guidance, and maintained a "data-dependent" communication style.
The market reacted quickly: after the speech, spot gold plunged briefly, the dollar index rose, and U.S. Treasury yields increased. Previously, the market had expectations for policy easing, but now the hawkish bottom line has been clearly drawn.
The crypto market reacted simultaneously. Bitcoin just completed $6.4 billion in options settlement, $BTC is consolidating narrowly near 80,000. Volatility did increase after Warsh's speech, but it did not effectively break the strong intraday support at 78,000; $ETH is fluctuating near the 2,500 level. Risk assets overall have entered a phase of digesting policy signals.
This time no clear rate hike timetable was given, but the bottom line of "acting if inflation does not fall" was revealed. The rate hike expectations for the September FOMC meeting will likely be revised upward, and upcoming inflation data will carry more weight. $BTC $2.8 TRUMP—do you want to chase it?
Looking at the surface first: 160% rise in 10 days, retail investors frantically chase the market, shouting "Trump bull."
On August 13, it bottomed at 1.37, then surged violently, reaching a high of 3.6 in 10 days, a 170% increase. White House crypto summit, CLARITY bill introduced, "new coin" rumors trigger FOMO.
RSI is overbought, CCI is overbought, trading volume is abnormally amplified, and after an overheated rebound, it is experiencing high-level oscillation.
First thing: rumors about "new coins" driving up the market, then selling after debunking them—the script is too familiar.
Some accounts leaked that "Trump is going to issue new coins," and spot prices jumped from 1.4 to 3.6, causing retail investors' FOMO to rush in. Eric Trump then declared: there was no new coin, and the claim to issue new coins was a scam. The price immediately retreated.
Rumors pulling the market, fake selling off, this assembly line has run countless times on this coin. Retail investors are still rushing for the "Trump bull," with internal linked wallets already transferring tokens to OK to cash out millions of dollars.
The second thing: The White House meeting is real, but "meeting" does not mean "price pumping."
Trump met crypto executives at the White House and urged Congress to advance the Market Structure Bill, relighting the "pro-crypto president" narrative. This was indeed a positive development. The good news was realized, and then what?
The CLARITY Act is a procedural progress, not an actual implementation. If there is progress in mid-September, there will be another emotional pulse, but after the pulse, it's highly likely you'll still sell. The biggest fear of meme coins isn't that no one buys them, but that insiders sell when you rush in.
Third: A signal from the technical side that must be taken seriously.
From 1.37 to 3.6, a 10-day rise of 170%—this is a triple resonance of oversold + bearish squeeze + rumors, not a healthy trend. Now the price has fallen from 3.6 to 2.8, which is a "second rebound after a surge," not a "main rally relay."
The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you
On one side:
The White House personally endorsed it, reigniting the political narrative
It rebounded violently from 1.37, turning bullish
BTC holds above 80,000, risk appetite is rising
Spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, improving liquidity
On one side:
It rose 170% in 10 days, technically seriously overheated
Internal linked wallets continue to ship + 900,000 coins unlocked daily
On September 18, there will be another large unlock (28.7 million tokens)
About 98% of buyers remain stuck, with heavy selling pressure above
Resistance above: 2.90-2.96 → 3.20-3.25→ 3.55-3.77
Support below: 2.50-2.55 (lifeline) → 2.20-2.25 (20-week EMA) → 2.05 (breakout and weakening) → 1.37-1.50 (deep decline)
Scenario A: Pullback and go long
Wait until volume shrinks and stabilizes at 2.52-2.58, then move forward, stop loss at 2.45, target 3.05-3.20. Alternatively, hold above 2.96 on increased volume to chase a breakout, stop loss at 2.78, target 3.20/3.55.
Scenario B: Short at a high level
If there is a long upper shadow, volume-price divergence, or higher rates between 2.88 and 2.96, you can go short, targeting 2.55/2.22 and a stop loss at 3.05. For short positions, you should also guard against short squeezes caused by "dovish speech + BTC rebound"; the position must be smaller than for long positions.
Scenario C: Wait and see
If it breaks below 2.50 and cannot recover within 1 hour, first short the position. The next watch point is 2.21. Only after holding hold will the bullish position be reassessed; If it breaks below 2.05, the 1.37 rebound structure will end.
Operational strategy
The iron rule of position positioning:
This is a high-volatility political meme, perpetuating only 3-5 times
Risk control for a single transaction is 1%-2% of principal
No overnight heavy positions betting on speeches; Warsh reduces positions before and after his speech
"Hold firm" has a negative expected value on this coin. The strategy must be swing, not faith.
It dropped from 75 to 1.37, then from 1.37 to 2.8, but the essence hasn't changed: it's still an Attention Asset + Unlock Machine.
A large portion of the trading volume you see at 2.8 is from contract gamblers and insiders trading hands in the counterparty's market. In the short term, you can catch volatility; in the medium to long term, don't use spot thinking to "bottom-fish and wait for doubling."
You watch the rebound, the team watches your buys.
Have you made or lost money on TRUMP?
2.8 At this position, would you dare to get on board?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP 风险提示：本文仅为市场客观复盘，不构成任何投资建议，加密资产波动极大，务必注意风险。 随着机构资金深度入局、合规体系逐步成型，整个加密市场的容错率正在发生改变。一方面大资金进场抹平了部分极端非理性暴涨暴跌；另一方面，机构调仓、ETF申赎、衍生品联动，又放大了中期震荡的烈度。BTC与ETH在同一套宏观环境之下，容错阈值完全不一样，认清两者的差异，建立适配震荡环境的仓位思维，远比执着预判顶底更具备现实意义。 比特币的市场容错阈值相对更高。它的叙事简单清晰，总量稀缺，监管定位明确，成为机构分散配置的选择。ETF资金是双向流动，行情向好时申购抬升价格，风险抬升时赎回带来抛压，不会出现单向永远买入。长期持有者沉淀大量底仓，回调阶段会提供承接力量，但这不等于价格不会出现中级回撤。上方历史套牢盘、短线获利盘叠加机构止盈，依旧会催生幅度不小的回调。比特币没有现金流，估值锚定流动性与风险偏好，一旦宏观风向突变，估值中枢依旧会下移。高容错，代表下跌之后更容易获得资金承接，不代表不会下跌。 以太坊的容错阈值明显更低。ETH的价格高度依附风险偏好，持有者结构里面投机资金占比更高。市场情绪乐观的时候，弹性十足；$SPCX's recent surge, I believe, is mainly due to the resonance of three factors:
1. SpaceX announced a major expansion of Starbase.
SpaceX plans to invest about $100 billion by 2035 to build a large space base in Louisiana, and the market has started to reprice SpaceX's long-term growth potential.
2. The AI narrative continues to heat up.
SpaceX plans to advance AI satellites equipped with Nvidia chips, and Nvidia has reignited the AI narrative with its earnings report, linking the popular concepts of “SpaceX+Starlink+AI computing power,” further expanding market imagination.
3. Capital is flowing back into SPCX.
SPCX previously experienced lock-up expirations and valuation disputes, but recently the price has returned above the IPO price, and market sentiment has somewhat recovered.
SpaceX expansion + AI satellite expectations + Starlink growth = SPCX is being speculated on again by capital.
But be cautious, as there is another lock-up expiration on September 9, so there is still significant short-term selling pressure risk.
My view: Short-term sentiment is bullish, but the closer it gets to the previous high, the more you should guard against a sharp pullback. Don’t blindly chase the price just because the news is strong. #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 By November 2026, after two consecutive months of digesting high box levels, profit-taking, leverage risk, and macro bearish sentiment in the crypto market have mostly been priced in by the market. Bitcoin fluctuates between $75,000 and $79,000, Ethereum holds the $2,300 mark, and overall volatility continues to decline. The market focus has shifted from emotional maneuvering over a single Fed meeting to observing inflation persistence, year-end ETF rebalancing efforts, and the actual output of the Ethereum ecosystem. The decision toward a box is getting closer, and the strength and weakness of BTC and ETH remain unchanged. On the capital side, Bitcoin spot ETFs have maintained moderate net inflows, with no large-scale inflows or ongoing redemptions. As the year-end approaches, some institutions have begun annual asset rebalancing, mainly using dollar-cost investment base positions rather than aggressive chasing highs. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin inventories on exchanges remain at historic lows, whale addresses continue to withdraw tokens, long-term holders' holdings remain unchanged, and the $74,000 support has been further tested and further effective. However, trading volume remains insufficient at the $80,000 resistance level above, indicating that relying solely on existing existing funds is difficult to achieve a direct breakout and still requires external incremental capital support. Ethereum's liquidity remains weak, with ETF funds repeatedly switching between inflows and outflows, with clear divergences among institutions. Trading activity on the Layer 2 network remains stable, DeFi staking scale fluctuates slightly, and the overall ecosystem is in a state of moderate recovery, with no explosive growth. Staking unlocking proceeds as planned$LIGHT Today it climbed to the top of the gainers' chart. In this situation, reaching such a high level is likely a pullback. Because there aren't many coins with big gains in the market right now, and with it standing out like a crane, it's likely to be cut down by short sellers. So I think it's likely to pull back in the short term. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. Looking at the data, we can see that its contract open interest is continuously rising, while the corresponding contract long-short ratio is steadily decreasing. This aligns with my own view: there is a lot of capital shorting in the market right now. Facing such strong bear pressure, it is probably very difficult to maintain the current price. In the short term, I think it will pull back. —————————————————— I am currently very pessimistic about the market. Because given the current situation, the Fed's willingness to raise interest rates is getting stronger, and market liquidity may continue to tighten. If everyone has no money in hand, how can prices go up? Generally speaking, when liquidity tightens, the market generally declines. Of course, a small number of coins manage to surge. We generally call these coins 'monster coins.' I don't think $LIGHT is a monster coin, because if you look closely at its candlesticks, you'll see it crashed many times in the early days. In such cases, there are many trapped investors. A crash is different from a bearish drop; a bearish drop can gradually wear down trapped positions, and this kind of crash will make people give up immediatelyWalsh's debut is clearly hawkish: The real risk for BTC is not the absence of rate cuts, but that "high interest rates are not over yet" The signals Walsh sent at Jackson Hole are tougher than the market expected. The core logic is simple: inflation is still too high, and current financial conditions can hardly be called truly restrictive. He clearly stated that if inflation does not sustainably and significantly fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do"; meanwhile, the labor ma$SNDK SanDisk's movement today is a bit hard to describe.
Although they and Kioxia launched a $31 billion large-scale expansion in Japan, the market isn't buying it, thinking the capital expenditure is too high and will squeeze profits, turning what should be good news into bad news.
The technical side is also weak; short-term moving averages have all formed death crosses, and the price is being suppressed.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Everyone, tonight at 10 PM, Federal Reserve Chair will make his debut at Jackson Hole. Nvidia's earnings report is just the appetizer; the Fed Chair's words will decide if the 80,000 Bitcoin can hold steady.
He was unclear at the July meeting, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to spike to 5.34%, and US debt to surpass 40 trillion. The silence is turning into expensive noise. Tonight, he needs to restore credibility by providing a clear policy reaction function—how inflation, employment, and growth will trigger policy adjustments.
Three key points: Core PCE at 3.3% is far above 2%, showing a vague attitude toward inflation; long bonds will face more selling. The 30-year yield near 5.3%—if he implies that high long-term yields have tightened financial conditions, that’s a dovish signal; if he ignores the bond market, it will continue to be hammered. CME shows about a 45% chance of a rate hike in September, so likely no clear commitment.
For BTC, a hawkish stance means Bitcoin may pull back to 75,000-77,000; a dovish stance tests 83,000-85,000; if he dodges, expect continued oscillation between 78,000-81,000. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
No betting on direction tonight; wait for him to clarify. Good luck everyone. $ETH is more risky than Bitcoin in the short term, with a high probability of testing previous lows, but a "breakdown crash" is not yet visible.
Breaking it down, Ethereum currently faces three pressures:
· Exchange rate "death cross" drag: The ETH/BTC rate is around 0.042, at an absolute low in nearly three years. As long as Bitcoin is supported between 72,000-74,000, Ethereum will not experience a "collapse" drop; but if Bitcoin falls to 72,000 first, Ethereum's decline will be amplified by the exchange rate, possibly hitting the previous low of 2,100 first.
· On-chain data "surrender": The Bitcoin rebound in your chart is accompanied by volume, but Ethereum's volume continues to shrink during its rise, indicating funds only recognize Bitcoin. Worse, Gas fees have dropped below 2 Gwei, putting the network into a deflationary stagnation state. If previously staked institutions start redeeming, it will create a "sell coins to repay debts" negative feedback loop.
· Weak defense at support levels: 2,100-2,200 is a psychological threshold but lacks the heavy chip support like Bitcoin. Once it breaks below 2,100, the real strong support is at 1,800 (the 2025 bull market start level). However, breaking below 1,800 is very unlikely unless the Federal Reserve clearly raises interest rates or a major DeFi liquidation occurs.Wash's statement "If inflation doesn't fall fast enough, we dare to raise rates" has directly extinguished much of the crypto community's newly ignited loose monetary policy fantasy. Everyone was gearing up, waiting for $BTC to break through the 80,000 ceiling, expecting a direct surge to 90,000 once the monetary easing breeze blew. But as soon as this hawkish stance came out, the dollar and US Treasury yields jumped on the spot, and the 80,000 level that BTC just touched immediately became a sh$BTC Regarding the question of whether it will break the new low of 57,750 in the future, the short-term probability (next 1-3 months) is very low, but if there is a hard economic landing later, it cannot be ruled out. Here's the breakdown of the logic:
· Technical aspect: The "safety cushion" below is very thick. The 57,750 on your chart is the adjustment low point in July 2026, while the current weekly MA120 (around 72,000) and the dense chip area (70,000-74,000) form a double support. Without an extreme black swan event, it is difficult to directly break through these two defenses to reach 57,750. The more realistic short-term scenario is oscillation within the large range of 72,000-82,000.
· Macro aspect: The Fed cannot deliver a "fatal blow." The Fed's "hawkish" stance only delays rate cuts, not restarts rate hikes. As long as interest rates do not exceed 5.5%, market liquidity can sustain the current price. The only thing that could push it down to 57,750 would be the Fed being forced to restart rate hikes or a major institution defaulting, which currently has a very low probability.
· Key variable: The timing might be next year. 57,750 corresponds to the pullback low point after the 2026 halving bull market. If the US economy falls into recession next year and the Fed has to urgently cut rates (which would confirm a crisis), then risk assets will face the final drop, and that level might be tested.It's hawkish, not playing tai chi!
1. Inflation hasn't truly come down yet; the 2% target will never be compromised. Inflation is the top priority.
2. The current interest rate environment is not restrictive enough; further rate hikes are not ruled out, keeping tightening options open.
3. No more advance market guidance; future decisions will be based mainly on current data, with no early rate commitments.
Meaning: Prices haven't fallen enough yet, further rate hikes are possible, and there won't be easy money flooding the market.
But here's the catch: they didn't make a definitive statement, no direct decision that September will definitely see a hike, just that future data will determine it.
The market was suddenly confused.
Gold was first hammered down, crypto markets dipped then bounced back repeatedly. $BTC $ETH
Some interpreted it as tightening and rushed to sell; others saw no definitive decision and dared to buy back.
Simply put:
It's neither outright bearish nor bullish, more like tough talk without a firm answer, so the market will keep oscillating. $SOL
Market reaction:
Gold plunged sharply, US Treasury yields rose. Crypto markets instantly spiked back and forth, first dropping then recovering, as the market digests the weight of this statement, volatility will continue to increase.
Market expectations for a September rate hike have risen directly.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Walsh's first Jackson Hole speech summed up the core sentence with this sentence. Walsh clearly raised the "inflation priority" again. He believes that if inflation delays below 2%, the Fed still has "work to do" and may raise rates further if necessary. Currently, core PCE is still at 3.3%, while the market's probability of a rate hike in the next month has been pushed to about 46%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.29%, a one-month high. · Walsh also wants the Fed to become "quieter," reducing forward-looking guidance and no longer frequently spoiling policy paths to the market. He believes the market overrelies on dot plots and central bank statements, ultimately forming a cycle of "the Fed watching the market, the market guessing the Fed." In the future, inflation, employment, financial conditions, and the bond market are more likely to speak for themselves. · Direct impact on assets: The dollar and short-term bond yields are relatively strong, high-valuation technology and BTC are under short-term pressure, and gold will also be suppressed by real interest rates. In fact, the market has already traded in some of the easing expectations in advance. Right before the speech, BTC regained the $80,000 mark, and gold held steadily above $4,600; Meanwhile, US equity funds saw a weekly net outflow of $22.3 billion, with funds clearly starting to defend. My characterization of this speech is: not "a rate hike will definitely happen in September," but rather Walsh formally telling the market: don't guess me anymore, I'll look at the data, and if necessary, I really will cut the price. In the short term, I'll be more cautious: $BTC first look for $80,000 support, $XAUT gold to see real interest rate direction; The real market will actually depend on subsequent inflation and employment figures#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
I opened two small capital contract grids and ran them for more than a day. I set a "health check standard" for myself to judge whether they are making money or deteriorating:
Standard 1: Is the number of arbitrages > 0? SPCX ran 1 time, SNDK ran 0 times. 0 times basically means this strategy is currently not working for you, either the range is set wrong or the volatility is insufficient.
Standard 2: Overall profit trend. Look at "total profit," not "grid profit." SPCX total profit is -0.30%, indicating that unrealized losses from direction outweigh arbitrage gains; the strategy is bleeding but still holding; SNDK total profit ≈0 means it’s inactive, not losing.
Standard 3: How far is the price from the range boundary? SNDK is currently at 1463, 4.5% above the lower boundary of 1400, temporarily safe but a neutral grid close to the lower boundary is prone to going out of range.
Standard 4: Distance to liquidation price. This is the lifeline of contract grids, as mentioned earlier.
My advice for beginners: Don’t obsess over arbitrage counts every day to feel good. Just check two things daily—whether total profit is positive or negative, and how much space remains before the price hits the boundary/liquidation. If both are healthy, let it run; if either worsens, adjust the range or shut it down. The strategy is a hired worker; you need to regularly check its attendance.
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 @OKX成长学院 I have seen quite a few companies where, despite continuous execution of business contracts on paper, the stock price is pressed down and dragged along with sector sentiment. In my view, APLD is such a company unfairly punished by market prejudice as an AI infrastructure stock. I'm not here to hype the stock or advise anyone to buy in; I'm just laying out the market disagreements and the company's actual situation as I see it. Many people's first impression of APLD still lingers on its old label from the early days of crypto mining, even though the company has long completed its business transformation and is fully focused on AI high-performance computing data centers. This old impression is still hard to erase. Whenever the AI computing power sector experiences a pullback, the first reaction of capital is to sell it off. The market views it with a very simple and crude perspective: it is still losing money, has a considerable amount of debt, large lease agreements are just contracts on paper, and real large-scale cash inflows are yet to come. As long as these points are on the table, many institutions directly label it as a high-risk speculative stock and are unwilling to give it a growth premium. But if you strip away the sentiment and look at the underlying business, the situation is not as pessimistic as the market reflects. Its core business now is building and operating high-density liquid-cooled data centers adapted for AI large model training and inference, earning stable rental income through long-term lease contracts. It has already secured sizable long-term leases, signing multi-year large-scale data center leases with CoreWeave, locking in very substantial future contract income. This is not a story drawn on a PPT; these are commercial contracts signed in black and white. Changes in revenue are also concretely reflected in the financial#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Tonight's Wash speech:
2% PCE target is "firm and unshakable" — "there should be no misunderstanding"
"Must be confident that core inflation is moving clearly and fast enough toward the target, otherwise more work is needed"
Inflation data this summer was better than expected, but the underlying trend has not substantially changed
"It's hard to determine that financial conditions are restrictive" — credit markets show almost no tightening effect (the most hawkish comment: basically current rates are still not tight enough)
Prices will not revert to the mean on their own, the Fed needs to act; at the same time, refuses to cooperate with Treasury buybacks, refuses to give forward guidance
Market reaction (within one hour after 22:00):
Asset movement range
September rate hike probability 33.9% → 41.7% (CME) / about 50% (traders betting) ↑ 8–16pp
Dollar index jumps nearly 40 points → 99.4283 (high 99.4559) +0.33%
Spot gold breaks below $4,550, hitting the lowest since 8/21, plunging $40–80
Silver turns from +2.8% to negative—
2-year US Treasury 4.286% (highest since 7/31) ↑
BTC 79,000 → **79,000 → **78,000** -1.3%
Also overlooked on the same day: initial benchmark revision for US 2026 nonfarm payrolls -79,000 (expected 183,000) — employment is actually weakening but completely overshadowed by hawkish speeches.Both Btc and Eth have dropped, but $ZEC is showing some potential, rising from 774 to 834 within 24 hours, currently priced at 810, with a 24-hour trading volume of 500 million. BTC's trading volume is only 560 million 🤔
Watching the data on OKX, my first reaction isn't "bullish," but "this is gambling." ZEC's trading volume hitting 500 million, almost on par with BTC, would you believe that normally? An old anonymous coin, usually with trading volume like a third-tier altcoin, suddenly this big spike can only mean one thing: speculators are manipulating the market, not genuine value discovery. I checked BTC again; 24-hour volume is 560 million, price still falling, indicating mainstream is adjusting, funds have nowhere to go, so they rush into small pools like ZEC to stir things up.
Current price 810, another classic pump and dump scenario. The old trick of trapping holders at the top, I've seen it many times on OKX. For this kind of coin, the bigger the volume, the more it shows increasing disagreement between bulls and bears, with manipulative traders trading back and forth inside, and retail investors getting cut on both ends. Why do I judge this way? Because it fell from 834 back to 810, showing heavy selling pressure above, no one willing to buy at the high, volume is big but price didn't hold, this volume is selling volume, not accumulation.
$ZEC my stance is clear: don't chase. Jumping in at this point is like lending money to manipulators to run away with. If I were to participate, I'd wait for two signals: either it breaks above 834 with volume and holds above 810 on pullback, showing bulls really want to push the price up; or it drops back to the 760-770 range with shrinking volume and stops falling, then I'd lightly buy in to catch a rebound and exit. At this point, it could go either way, entering now is like betting on heads or tails, I'd rather watch the show.
The crypto world never lacks opportunities, it lacks discipline. ZEC looks tempting this round, but I know my limits, this kind of money isn't my style. I'll keep holding my BTC and OKB base positions, no envy, no itchiness, let the bullets fly a little longer.Elon Musk said: Within five years, a large number of people will lose their jobs because of AI.
But what’s truly worth fearing might not be "unemployment."
It’s that you suddenly realize:
AI is replacing not just jobs, but the bargaining power of ordinary people.
Musk says that in the next five years many will be pushed out of work by AI, yet he also tells you: everyone has a chance in the AI era.
Sounds fair.
But then look at what he himself is doing.
$SPCX has already made AI its core bet for the future: AI revenue is expected to surpass all other business income combined as early as this September, and Musk even directly stated—four or five years from now, AI could account for 99% of SpaceX’s value.
That’s interesting.
The old logic of wealth was:
you have time → you have skills → you exchange for wages.
The AI era might become:
you have AI → you have computing power → you have data → you have capital → machines generate income for you.
So here’s the question:
Will the people replaced by AI be the same ones making money from AI?
Most likely not.
The real dividing line might not be "whether you can use ChatGPT."
But five years from now:
Are you working for AI,
or do you own AI?
That’s the truly terrifying part of Musk’s statement.
AI might not eliminate all jobs, but it very likely will redistribute wealth.Today, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, and market expectations for rate hikes have heated up again. Analyzing Warsh's speech, it's not hard to see that the Fed is currently in a dilemma: it wants to cut rates but inflation doesn't allow it. At the same time, think about it—can rate hikes really solve the problem? Not really! Because tech companies need massive financing and cannot tolerate high interest rates! So how to balance these two? Warsh's approach is to be hawkish in words but not in actions. On the surface, he cannot show even the slightest dovishness, but since the Fed started repurchasing U.S. Treasuries, a subtle dovish stance has actually begun, maintaining an atmosphere that keeps you guessing but never quite sure—this is Warsh's most brilliant move! Back to the main topic, what happened to Bitcoin during the same period? It surged violently by over 10,000 points, then started to pull back after Warsh's speech today. After all, it needs to align with market expectations and soften a bit. The trading logic is very clear: the market is saying, "I already know what you want to do, how you will do it, and what the consequences will be, so I will use the market to falsify your logic." In the short term, Bitcoin is entering a high-level consolidation phase. I believe the pullback is limited; we can first observe whether the 78,000 level holds, with a target range of 83,000 to 86,000, forming a continuation platform for the upward trend! Creating is not easy, please follow me, I will continue to update more quality content! (The author holds MicroStrategy, BMNR, SOL, and ARB spot positions. I will analyze from multiple dimensions and share the market insights I can understand.) #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC #Will_Wash_appear_at_Jackson_Hole_tonight_and_clarify_the_policy_framework?
#Is_BTC_about_to_be_manipulated_by_the_Fed_again?
At the recent Jackson Hole meeting, Wash did not give the dovish answer the market expected.
Simply put: Whether there will be a rate cut in September, I won't tell you now.
But if inflation doesn't return to 2% soon, the Fed may continue tightening.
Once this statement came out, the market started repricing "higher rates for longer."
Actually, this is what BTC needs to pay attention to right now.
Because what BTC really fears is never just a "rate hike."
It's: US Treasury yields rising → USD strengthening → liquidity tightening → pressure on risk assets.
Previously, the market was still trading on rate cut expectations, but now Wash has pulled that expectation back.
So I won't rush to guess whether BTC will rise or fall next.
I prefer to watch three things:
The USD, US Treasury yields, and $BTC capital flows.
If after Wash's speech, US Treasury yields continue to rise and BTC breaks key support again, be cautious that this rebound may re-enter a correction.
But if after the market digests this hawkish stance: yields don't rise, the USD isn't strong, and BTC doesn't fall,
then it gets interesting, because it means the market may have already priced in the "Fed hawkish bias" in advance.
The current price can actually be shorted a little. Tomorrow is the weekend, volatility won't be too big, so no need to worry too much. Still, pay attention to capital flows later! 市场正在经历一场安静的拉锯。$BTC 停留在 80,000 美元附近，$ETH 在 2,500 美元上下反复，这种横盘并非犹豫，而是多空双方在同一个问题上重新校准认知：流动性何时真正转向，新资金还会不会来。答案藏在这两个地方。 首先是杰克逊霍尔年会。市场早已消化了降息本身，真正等待的是美联储如何定义当前的经济剧本。如果措辞偏向鸽派，强调就业压力与通胀受控，美元与美债收益率回落，风险资产的上行空间将被打开；反之，若暗示通胀依然顽固，市场将不得不再度修正预期，当前的蓄势期也可能转化为更深的调整。因此，市场等待的并非某个具体结果，而是新的故事框架。 其次是 ETF 资金流向。上周比特币 ETF 净流入 19.2 亿美元，以太坊为 6.97 亿，单看数据确实鼓舞人心。但市场是预期机器，不会为已经发生的事付出溢价。真正的突破需要资金流入形成正反馈：价格上涨吸引资本，资本再推动价格。79,000 至 82,000 美元区域既是筹码密集区，也是信心检验线，放量突破意味着循环建立，持续受阻则说明叙事难以为继。 更深一层看，加密资产正夹在“数字黄金”与“高风险资产”两重身份之间。流动性收紧时它领跌，宽松Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first major speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The official Fed schedule confirms the speech time as 10:00 AM Eastern Time.
There is already a fairly clear signal: Warsh is hawkish. He emphasized that inflation is still significantly away from the 2% target, and if inflation does not continue to decline, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. He also believes current financial conditions are not tight enough. After the speech, the market's probability of a rate hike in September rose significantly.
Regarding the crypto $BTC market
Short-term bearish, and volatility is likely to increase tonight.
The logic is simple:
Hawkish → US Treasury yields ↑ → USD ↑ → Rate cut expectations ↓ → BTC/ETH under pressure
Especially if Warsh clearly signals tonight that "rate hikes may still occur in September or even by the end of the year," BTC and ETH are likely to first see a sell-off followed by a look for capital support.
Conversely, if he only emphasizes "data dependency" without further strengthening rate hike expectations, the market may rebound after the negative news is priced in.
My judgment: Tonight is not suitable for guessing the direction in advance. Focus on whether the first round of rally/dip after the speech is supported by capital.
In short: The biggest risk tonight is not the speech itself, but "hawkishness exceeding expectations." Currently, the crypto market leans ★★★★☆ bearish.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Today's capital flow in the US market shows an intriguing signal📊. According to reports, Bitwise's ETP products attracted nearly $100 million in net inflows in a single day, but this money did not flow solely into Bitcoin; instead, it showed a clear tiered allocation.
Among them, Solana led with about $40 million inflow, Bitcoin followed closely with about $22 million, HYPE took about $20 million, XRP received about $12 million, and Ethereum was relatively flat, recording only about $1.4 million.
The information revealed by this data may be more interesting than the total amount itself. Bitcoin remains the cornerstone of crypto assets, but funds did not stop there; they clearly spread toward high-volatility, high-elasticity targets like SOL and HYPE. This is not simply new capital entering the market but more like active rebalancing of existing funds across sectors, with investors using real money to express their pursuit of higher risk-reward ratios.
It is worth noting that this differentiation also means market consensus is not yet fully unified. Funds are probing multiple tracks, which is both a diversification away from reliance on a single asset and implies divergence in expectations for subsequent market trends. In the short term, such rotation may continue to amplify altcoin volatility.
Risk warning: ETP capital flows only reflect part of institutional behavior and do not constitute a comprehensive market signal. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please interpret the data rationally and make decisions cautiously. $SOL $BTC $HYPE $XRP $ETHFederal Reserve Chair Wash's speech today may be a short-term turning point for BTC.
In the past 10 days, BTC has rebounded quickly from a low, once again surpassing $81,000. The market had already started trading on rate cut expectations and even hoped this rebound would continue to break higher.
But tonight, Wash's stance was clearly hawkish.
He emphasized that inflation is still far from the 2% target, and if inflation does not continue to decline, the Federal Reserve still "has work to do," implying the possibility of further rate hikes.
After the speech, BTC fell back to around $79,000.
I believe the most critical issue for BTC now is not whether the bull market is over, but whether this rebound can withstand the Federal Reserve's renewed tightening expectations.
In the short term, the $80,000 level has become a key battleground between bulls and bears. If BTC can quickly reclaim and hold above $80,000, it indicates the market has sufficiently digested the hawkish speech, and there is still a chance to continue challenging higher.
But if it continues to fall below $80,000, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields keep strengthening, then this rebound should be watched carefully as it may mark the "end of the rebound."
So going forward, I will focus on three things:
Whether BTC can firmly stand above $80,000 again;
Whether the Federal Reserve's September rate expectations continue to turn hawkish;
Whether US inflation data can truly come down.
Currently, my view is: cautious in the short term, but the medium-term trend is not completely broken yet.
#BTC #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #Cryptocurrency #OKX#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC $ETH $OKB
The Chair (Federal Reserve Chair Wash) spoke last night, overall hawkish, which is bearish for risk assets.
1. Inflation hasn't fundamentally come down enough
He said recent inflation data was "better than expected," but that doesn't mean the underlying trend has substantially improved. He also said unless confident inflation is rapidly moving toward the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." This effectively raises the bar for rate cuts.
2. Complains the current financial environment isn't tight enough
He directly said, "It's hard to describe the overall financial environment as having a tightening effect," meaning the current interest rate level is not high enough in his view and hasn't truly restrained the economy. This implies further tightening may be needed.
3. Breaking tradition, no "feeding" the market
In previous years, the Fed Chair would give some policy direction at Jackson Hole, but this time he directly avoided discussing rate trajectory, saying the Fed shouldn't pre-announce actions. Without "forward guidance," the market can only guess blindly, increasing volatility.
Market reaction was also direct
Once the speech was out, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded in a V-shape, and the market's probability of a September rate hike jumped 6 percentage points. The dollar strengthened, which is real pressure on risk assets like BTC.
So now the market worries not about late rate cuts, but possibly more hikes, which is a real bearish factor for the crypto space. Previously, BTC's rise from 62k to 79k was supported by liquidity expectations from the Treasury buying long bonds; now with the Chair's stance, short-term risk appetite will definitely be suppressed. Jackson Hole Speech Interpretation on Gold (XAUUSDT)
Key Points of the Speech (Hawkish Bias)
1. Inflation Priority: The 2% PCE inflation target is fixed and unshakable; the pace of inflation decline is slower than expected, and price stability is the primary task of monetary policy.
2. Weakened Forward Guidance: No longer providing the market with advance interest rate commitments; all depends on real-time subsequent data; did not explicitly say there will be a rate hike in September but rejected expectations of rate cuts.
3. Assessment of Strong Economic Resilience: Current monetary policy is not considered "sufficiently restrictive," implying rates may remain high and further tightening is not ruled out.
Market Reaction After the Speech:
• US Dollar Index surged briefly, US Treasury yields rose
• Gold plunged directly, quickly dropping from around 4600 to a low near 4550
• Probability of a September rate hike jumped from 34% to nearly 50%, with the market repricing "higher rates maintained longer"
Fundamental Logic Breakdown
✅ Bearish for Gold (Short-term)
The US dollar and Treasury yields rose; gold is a non-yielding asset, and a high interest rate environment suppresses gold prices. The market had been speculating on future rate cuts, but the speech shattered easing hopes, bringing correction pressure to gold at high levels.
✅ Bullish for Gold (Medium to Long-term Fundamentals Remain)
1. Global central banks' continued gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US's massive fiscal deficit remain underlying factors unchanged by the speech.
2. The lack of rate commitments means if subsequent data weakens, easing expectations can return; this is not a complete entry into a sustained rate hike cycle. Recent on-chain data shows that a batch of Bitcoin wallets dormant for over a decade have begun to awaken. In the past ten days, addresses that had not moved since 2011 to 2014 transferred about 553.59 BTC, valued at over $40 million 💰 based on reference prices.
This news easily sparks speculation, but a key distinction must be clarified: whale asset movement does not equal selling. Currently, these coins have been transferred to unknown addresses, with no evidence pointing to direct selling or profit-taking. Possible scenarios include wallet consolidation, custody migration, security management, or preparation for a future transaction. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that they may eventually convert into seller liquidity.
What truly deserves attention is the significance of this dormant supply. BTC that has not moved for ten years is fundamentally different from coins actively circulating in the market. When such ancient supply suddenly awakens, the market's perception of liquidity changes accordingly, especially now as BTC approaches a critical resistance level, making this activity even more noteworthy 👀.
I do not view this transfer as a sell signal. Three points need to be observed going forward: first, whether more ancient wallets are awakened, as a single anomaly may be isolated, while a large-scale awakening carries more weight; second, the direction of funds, as transfers to exchanges versus private wallets have vastly different implications; third, how the price reacts, since on-chain activity is most meaningful when it resonates with market trends. $BTC
Risk warning: On-chain movements do not equal market direction. Please view rationally and be aware of volatility risks. $BTC Walsh has a dual attitude towards Bitcoin:
· On a personal level, he may be friendly: he has historically held multiple crypto assets and called Bitcoin the "new gold for people under 40," showing a high level of personal awareness.
· On a policy level, it is bearish: his primary task is to control inflation, so he must tighten liquidity (balance sheet reduction or high interest rates), which is the "nemesis" of a crypto market bull run.
Therefore, the market pays more attention to his actions as the Federal Reserve Chair (which affect liquidity) rather than his personal crypto holdings preferences. During Walsh's tenure, Bitcoin's trend may depend more on inflation data and the actual policy pace of the Federal Reserve.$CRM (Salesforce) — Closed at $252.05, up +22.58% for the day
$CRM rose 22.58% today, with an intraday high of $254.48 and a low of $231, trading volume around 55.41 million shares.
Why can a traditional enterprise software company regain such high attention because of AI?
Because the AI that enterprises are truly willing to pay for is not necessarily a chat model, but a tool that can directly connect customer data, sales processes, and business data.
$CRM's advantage lies in enterprise data and customer relationships. If AI agents can help customers improve sales efficiency, it could bring new subscription revenue.
But after rising more than 20% today, the market has already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations.
$231 is the support after the gap up, and around $254.50 is resistance. The focus going forward is not to chase the gains, but to see if stable turnover can be maintained above the gap.
I am Yuvi. The AI story has been accepted by the market; the next step is to see if customers are willing to pay for it long-term. Resetting the threshold for rate hikes + refusing to give hawkish promises to the market—this is the theme of Wash's speech tonight. Although Wash did not lock in the probability of a September rate hike, he clearly told the market that current rates are not restrictive enough for financial markets, opening up the possibility of a rate hike, especially with the strengthening of the 2% inflation target, which deeply plunged the market into concerns about a rate hike in September. After Wash's speech, the CME swap rate showed a 45.7% chance of a rate hike in September, while traders assessed the probability of a rate hike at 50%! Actually, the core of Wash's speech tonight was still to keep interest rates high in the market. Although the probability of a rate hike in September has increased, I still don't think it will actually happen, because current rates don't affect tech stocks' financing. But for real estate, retail, and other real economy companies, high financing costs are fatal. The current crisis can still be delayed, and if rates continue, these companies will inevitably have to pay a heavy price. So, as I said before, Wash's attempt to guide the market to keep rates high is not only because the data itself lacks sufficient evidence for rate cuts, but more so because Wash's task force needs time to set up a new data mix to support rate cuts. Before the Wash's working group releases data, unless inflation continues to decline, Washey may really have to maintain a hawkish stance and keep the market high in interest rates. Of course, aside from Walsh's own monetary policy, market expectations remain valid. To lower rate hike expectations, aside from August inflation, employment, and economic data, the most direct factor is that energy prices can quickly return to normal. #沃什今晚亮相杰In today's market, those chasing the rise suffer the most, those trading swings in the fluctuation feel the most comfortable, and those who are truly positioning are often unbelievably quiet. Have you ever thought that when everyone is watching the market and guessing the pin, the truly valuable chips are actually slowly picked up in corners where no one talks about them? I've been watching OKB lately—not because it has risen, but because it hasn't risen to its original form. This isn't a story about short-term gambling, but a reflection on "taking sides early." Let me first talk about the rhythm I've observed. The current market is clearly in a mixed state of "high-level wash + local hotspot rotation." The market is testing the market within a range, while altcoins are fighting separately, their emotions becoming especially sensitive, and the slightest disturbance causes collective tremors. At this stage, the biggest taboo is frequent portfolio rotation and chasing gains, because your counterpart often has more patient funds than you. Back to OKB itself, many people just see it as an exchange platform token, thinking it has weak linkage with BTC and lacks imagination. But I think the market has underestimated the network OKX is laying out—XLayer. This thing is a Layer 2 based on Polygon CDK, compatible with EVM, low cost, highly scalable, and most importantly, deeply tied to exchanges, wallets, and DeFi products. This is not an isolated technical narrative, but a closed-loop path of "transaction traffic + on-chain applications + token utility." If XLayer could,$SNDK the previous explosive rally driven up by concentrated funds and a short-term surge triggered a zero-support, cliff-like plunge from the historical high, with an overall drawdown steadily exceeding 99%. The market was tightly suppressed by continuous early-stage chip distribution sell-offs, and could be crushed within hours.
In the same sector, $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all accurately caught the active buying driven by the loose liquidity released in this round. The clear rhythm was clear, and the dividends from the $SNDK sector rotation were not realized, completely deviating from the overall upward momentum of the entire sector. Instead, it remains stuck in its own independent downward channel, continuing to decline along the short-term moving average. Currently, the risk of blindly entering the market without multiple rounds of full turnover and betting on a reversal has reached a very high level#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键
Cost is the real game-changer. Broadcom CEO Chen Fuyang confirmed that the inference cost of Jalapeño is about 50% lower than mainstream GPUs. SemiAnalysis estimates that the total cost of ownership per chip per hour for Jalapeño is $1.56, on par with the H100's $1.55, while Vera Rubin reaches as high as $3.61. OpenAI hardware lead Richard Ho bluntly stated that as long as production scales up and cost savings meet expectations, more inference workloads will be handled by self-developed chips.
NVIDIA remains the partner on the training side; Jalapeño is currently only responsible for inference. However, OpenAI is building a full-stack iterative closed loop of "model-chip-memory" collaboration—each generation of chips iterates synchronously with the model, something NVIDIA as a third-party supplier cannot achieve.
OpenAI has proven that leading model vendors can reduce inference costs and improve gross margins through self-developed chips. NVIDIA's general-purpose GPU dominance is being cracked from within by its largest customer.Tonight (August 28) at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's debut at Jackson Hole, with a clearly hawkish tone.
He reiterated the 2% PCE inflation target as "firm and unwavering," noting the current PCE year-on-year at 3.7%, six-month annualized at 4.1%, with no substantial improvement in core inflation, "If we can't quickly return to 2%, we still have work to do." On the economic front: unemployment rate at 4.1%, AI capital expenditure supports resilience, financial conditions are not restrictive, implying room to keep rate hikes. Communication advocates weakening forward guidance, no commitment to future path, aiming for a "quieter Fed."
Market reaction: U.S. stocks turned down, gold and silver plunged, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields surged, CME shows September rate hike probability rising above 40%. Overall, tonight is not a "tapering" signal but a hawkish reset prioritizing inflation and no easing rate cuts.$BTC $ETH $SNDK did not directly call for an immediate rate hike but completely opened the door to rate increases, rejecting the market's rate cut fantasies #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Key points from the core statement: 1. The 2% inflation target is unwavering; the current primary task is to suppress inflation, with employment as a secondary priority 2. Even if recent CPI/PCE data looks good, it does not mean the inflation trend has truly declined; short-term data should not be misleading 3. If core inflation does not clearly and quickly decline, the Fed still has work to do = implying rate hikes can continue 4. The current financial environment is not tight enough to suppress inflation 5. Abandoning forward guidance: will not give the market advance commitments on the interest rate path; everything depends on subsequent data, and the market must bear the uncertainty risk 6. Acknowledges the strong resilience of the US economy and labor market; the economy is not weak, leaving ample room for further rate hikes Why this is bearish for US stocks: 1. The market had been trading on "inflation peak, subsequent rate cuts possible," but this speech directly shattered rate cut expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike rising rapidly 2. US Treasury yields rising puts the most pressure on high-valuation tech and chip sectors (Nvidia, Hynix, memory boards); growth stock valuations are compressed 3. No policy backstop signal was given; the market loses the "Fed rescue" fantasy, risk appetite declines, and US stocks are prone to volatile weakness. Note: He did not directly announce an immediate rate hike, not an extremely aggressive hawk, so there won't be a direct crash; but the rebound will be nonJackson Hole's speech was somewhat hawkish within expectations, with no unexpected negative news and will not directly change the medium-term market. However, it will alter subsequent pricing logic. So, as you can see, the volatility is not particularly large, which fits the characteristics of a monkey market. First, the core tone of the speech: Wash firmly insisted on not easing the 2% inflation target, emphasizing that current inflation has not actually declined, and does not rule out further rate hikes. At the same time, the "forward-looking guidance" is significantly weakened. In the future, the Fed will not prematurely draw a roadmap for the market's interest rate roadmap. Every policy adjustment must follow the latest inflation and employment data. Short-term impact: Market volatility is very small because the market had long anticipated a hawkish bias and no unexpected breakthroughs. In the short term, macro footsteps have been set. The sudden shock from the Fed's speech has temporarily paused. However, there is a hidden change: going forward, market trends will no longer rely on the Fed's "early statements," but every inflation data release will become a trigger for market movements. BTC and ETH will likely see increased volatility frequency. In the medium term, the negative factors have not disappeared but have only been delayed. Wash's approach has effectively drawn a red line for the market: as long as inflation rebounds, rate hike options could restart at any time. This means that high interest rates may last longer than people previously imagined. Expectations for loose liquidity are further cooled, adding another ceiling for crypto price uptrends. Fortunately, the crypto market currently has significant hedging forces—spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, and institutional spot buying provides bottom support. As long as ETF funds don't significantly retreat, hawkish stance alone is unlikely to reverse the mid-term trend of volatility and a strong trend