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$DOGE This 50x short position moved from 0.08671 to 0.08489, with an unrealized profit of 104%. After the contract's open interest rose to a high level, it started to stabilize without moving; no new positions are entering, and bulls and bears are exhausting each other.
If the stalemate drags on, the market is prone to spikes, making direction hard to predict. For 50x leverage, don't gamble on the deadlock outcome; take 90% profit directly, keep 10% for stop loss at 0.08671 to break even, and move stop loss to 0.0855.
Those not in the market should watch changes in open interest; don't bet on direction during stagnation. Wait for volume to expand again before looking for opportunities. $BTC $ETH $ETH Why did it drop harder than $BTC this time?
Last night, both were dragged down by the Fed's hawkish statements, but the result is clear: BTC retraced about 4.7%, while ETH dropped 6.3%.
I think the key is not this drop itself, but the previous rebound which already showed which one the funds prefer.
From 72458 to 81500, BTC has rebounded 12.5%; ETH went from 2400 to 2566, with an increase of only about 7%.
In other words, when market funds returned, BTC captured more liquidity, while ETH did not keep up.
Now ETH faces a somewhat awkward problem: staking yields are declining, L2 keeps diverting mainnet transactions, Gas fees remain low for a long time, and there is increasing discussion about ETH's value capture ability.
Looking at ETH/BTC, it has already reached around 0.031.
So it’s not surprising that ETH dropped deeper this time. The market currently assigns much higher certainty to BTC, while ETH still needs new funds and narratives to prove itself.
In the short term, don’t rush to guess the bottom. Whether ETH can reclaim 2460–2480 is more important than simply how much it has fallen.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 The A-share market has been really frustrating over the past month, with trading volume shrinking like a dry riverbed, and sector rotation happening so fast that even reviewing the market is hard to keep up with.
In contrast, in the crypto space, $BTC has been oscillating between 60,000 and 65,000, but $ETH quietly surged nearly 20%, showing a well-formed independent trend.
My biggest lesson from years of stock trading is "don't heavily invest in a low-volume market," and this principle is even more critical in crypto; once liquidity dries up, sudden spikes are scarier than A-share plunges.
So I changed my strategy, abandoning the left-side bottom-fishing approach, instead waiting for volume to break key levels before right-side following up, only adding if the pullback doesn't break the previous low.
Stop-loss orders are a must; in stocks, you can hold on waiting for a rebound if trapped, but in crypto, a deep V can wash you out instantly. I set hard stop-losses two levels below support for every position.
Watching the market over the past month, I found sentiment indicators most effective: for A-shares, look at financing balance and rise-fall ratio; for crypto, watch the contract long-short ratio, as extreme values often signal reversals.
Don't trust the news; after Musk hyped $DOGE, it spiked then immediately dropped, just like A-shares reacting to positive news with a high open and low close.
Control your position size well, no more than 30% per single coin, leverage no more than 2x, and keep enough ammo for confirmed opportunities.
In this market, watch volume and the US session more than floating profits or losses; survival is the most important.
Currently, I’m holding $BTC and $ETH for swing trading; I won’t consider $SOL unless it breaks key levels, waiting for the right moment.$ETH THE QUESTION ISN’T WHETHER ETH CAN PUMP, BUT WHERE THE MONEY IS GOING
Bitcoin has dominated the recovery narrative, but Ethereum is starting to make the capital-flow picture much more interesting.
ETH has recovered strongly from the $1,900 area and pushed back toward $2,500.
At first glance, that looks like another crypto rebound.
But the more important development may be happening underneath the chart.
Capital is starting to show interest in Ethereum again.
Spot ETH ETF flows have remained consistently positive, suggesting that demand isn't coming exclusively from short-term traders chasing candles.
That's important because sustainable moves usually need more than leverage.
They need actual capital willing to stay exposed.
Bitcoin can lead the market higher, but eventually investors start asking where the next opportunity is.
That's where ETH becomes important.
Ethereum sits between Bitcoin and the higher-beta altcoin market.
If ETH continues strengthening while BTC consolidates, it could become an early signal that capital is beginning to rotate deeper into the market.
And that's the setup I'm watching.
Not "ETH is going to $3K tomorrow."
Instead:
Can ETH hold $2,500?
Can buyers defend pullbacks?
Can ETH begin outperforming BTC?
Can ETF demand remain positive?
If the answers continue leaning toward yes, the current move becomes much more interesting.
A failed breakout would tell a completely different story.
If ETH loses $2,500 quickly and falls back into its previous range, it would suggest that the market wasn't ready to sustain the rotation.
But if $2,500 becomes support, the psychology changes.
What was resistance becomes a foundation.
And from there, $2,800–$3,000 becomes a much more reasonable area to watch.
The broader lesson is that bull markets rarely move in a straight line.
Capital rotates.
Bitcoin leads.
Ethereum catches attention.
Then traders start looking further down the risk curve.
We're not necessarily at the final stage of that rotation yet.
But ETH is starting to give the market a reason to pay attention Wash puts rate hikes back on the table: Is September steady? Just two final data sets remain
After Jackson Hole, the market no longer trades on "when will rates be cut" but instead re-discusses "will there be a rate hike in September."
Wash sent three clear signals: inflation remains too high; the economy and employment are still resilient; current financial conditions are hardly truly restrictive. More importantly, he insists on downplaying forward guidance, making no commitment to the September path.
The market reaction was direct: the probability of a September rate hike rose from about 35% to around 57%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield surged to about 4.34%; Deutsche Bank went further, expecting 25BP hikes in both September and December.
But a "60% chance of a rate hike" does not equal "a rate hike is locked in."
What will truly decide the September meeting next is the August employment and inflation data. If employment remains strong and CPI continues to be sticky, rate hike pricing may further approach certainty; conversely, if data weakens significantly, the current hawkish trades could quickly reverse.
Wash has opened the door, but whether it will be pushed open ultimately depends on the data. $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Short-term is facing macro headwinds again! The US short-term bond yields suddenly surged, with the 2-year yield jumping 11.8 basis points in a single day! The bet on a September rate hike heats up directly, and liquidity tension tightens again!
After Federal Reserve Chair Warsh sent a more hawkish signal at Jackson Hole, the US 2-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.35%, hitting a one-month high. The market's probability of a September rate hike quickly rose from about 35% to 60%, and the US dollar strengthened simultaneously.
The short-end yield is most sensitive to policy expectations; it continues to surge, meaning the attractiveness of cash and short-term bonds is rising again, and high Beta assets naturally face pressure tests.
Crypto now needs to watch whether rate hike expectations will continue to heat up, and whether BTC spot can withstand this round of liquidity tightening.
#USShortTermTreasuryYieldsRising
If short-term bonds push higher, $BTC high-leverage positions will feel the strain first.
But once expectations are fully priced in and yields no longer hit new highs, it is actually easiest for a wave of expectation gap repair to occur!THE ROTATION STORY MAY BE GETTING INTERESTING
Bitcoin may have opened the door, but Ethereum could be starting to attract the attention needed for the next phase of the market.
ETH has moved from roughly $1,900 on August 19 to around $2,500, a gain of more than 30% in a short period.
But the price move isn't the only thing worth watching.
The bigger signal is capital rotation.
Spot ETH ETF inflows have remained strong, with nine consecutive trading sessions of net inflows and roughly $1.42B accumulated during that period. The latest daily inflow was around $226M, getting surprisingly close to Bitcoin's roughly $242M.
That matters because it suggests the market isn't simply chasing Bitcoin anymore.
BTC often acts as the first destination for institutional and larger-capital flows.
Once Bitcoin establishes a stronger range, capital can begin searching for assets that offer more upside potential without moving too far down the risk curve.
That's where ETH becomes interesting.
Ethereum doesn't need to outperform Bitcoin every single day to confirm a rotation.
What I want to see is sustained demand, stronger relative performance, and most importantly, ETH holding higher levels after the initial rally.
$2,500 is therefore more than just a round number.
If ETH can turn that area from resistance into support, the market could start treating the recent move as a structural recovery rather than another short-term bounce.
The next major area I'd be watching is around $2,800–$3,000.
But I'm not assuming ETH gets there simply because momentum looks strong.
The market still has macro risks, and Bitcoin's direction remains extremely important.
If BTC loses its key support and enters another aggressive correction, ETH will likely feel the pressure too.
But if BTC stabilizes while ETH continues attracting capital, that would create a much more interesting setup.
And this is where I think the broader market becomes worth watching.
A sustainable altcoin rotation usually doesn't begin with everything pumping at once. #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold correlation strengthens
BTC fluctuates repeatedly around the $80,000 mark. A recent obvious market change: the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has significantly increased, with both rising and falling more frequently together. After the Jackson Hole speech, gold and BTC move synchronously, no longer going their separate ways as before.
1. Sharing the same macro driver: real interest rates and US dollar credit trades
Both are interest-free scarce assets. Institutions now treat BTC as "digital gold," using it together to hedge against US fiscal and Treasury uncertainties. When Treasury yields fall, gold and BTC rise together; when yields rebound, both face pressure simultaneously, with liquidity as the primary guiding factor.
2. Synchronized institutional capital allocation
Gold ETFs and BTC spot ETFs continuously see capital inflows and outflows. The same batch of macro funds allocate to both asset types simultaneously, with similar buying and selling rhythms, further reinforcing the resonance in their price movements.
⚠️ But there is an essential difference in nature: gold is a traditional safe haven; BTC is a high-beta asset. In extreme panic-driven crashes, BTC’s decline usually far exceeds that of gold.
Current market contradictions
BTC experiences intense high-level bull-bear battles, with option expirations adding disturbances amid unresolved macro uncertainties.
- Bullish factors: spot ETF buying remains, the US dollar credit hedge narrative continues to ferment, and gold maintains a high level providing emotional support;
- Bearish factors: Powell’s speech keeps the option of rate hikes open, inflation stickiness remains, heavy selling pressure above $80,000, and leveraged positions are high, making rapid sharp declines likely.My stock market account turned red again, so I pushed the keyboard away and opened Binance to find some comfort.
As it turned out, $BTC had just risen above 62500 on August 22, so I chased in, but it immediately dropped back to 59500, a double whammy for bulls and bears.
That night, I watched the candlestick charts until 3 a.m. and finally figured out a few things.
The stock market and crypto market are essentially the same; both are games of capital, so don’t talk to me about faith.
First, clearing out your positions is always more important than bottom fishing; cash is oxygen—without it, you suffocate.
Second, only trade on the right side; wait for a clear trend before acting. Veteran traders die trying to catch tops and bottoms on the left side.
Third, operate at most once a day; if you’re itchy, go watch a movie—don’t touch your account.
Last week, $ETH hovered around 2280 for four days, and I didn’t act until it broke out with volume above 2320, then I took a small position.
I made 2.5% and ran, no greed.
This month, I lost 8% in stocks but made back 3% in crypto through discipline, and I’m quite satisfied.
Remember, the market won’t sympathize with your losses, but discipline will save you.
Before bed, I check my positions and set stop losses so I can sleep peacefully.
Now I don’t seek to get rich quick; I just want my account to be a little higher at the end of each month than at the start.
That’s enough. BTC at $77,600, have you been shaken out?
First, look at the surface: the probability of a rate hike has surged to 57%, bulls are bleeding heavily.
On Friday at Jackson Hole, the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first speech with a hawkish tone—PCE inflation at 3.7%, the 2% target is "firm, fixed," and the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% straight to 57%. BTC dropped from 80,300 to a low of 76,900, down a full 3%, with bulls liquidated for $480 million.
The Friday low of 76,800 held, and today it’s consolidating with low volume around 77,700, RSI falling back from overbought to recover, waiting for direction.
First thing: The Fed spoke tough, but institutions are voting with real money.
Warsh’s speech translated into plain language is: "Inflation is still high, don’t expect me to cut rates soon, might even hike again." The market immediately reacted—US Treasury yields soared, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets all collapsed.
But the US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows exceeding $3 billion in August, with 8-9 consecutive trading days of inflows. Although Friday saw a net outflow of $200 million, the institutional buying in August was real.
Second thing: The $81,000 level is the real issue.
It’s the upper edge of the descending channel from the all-time high of $126,000, right at $81,000. The 50-week moving average is also at $81,000. This August’s rally from $62,000 to $81,500 hit $81,000 three times and was pushed back each time.
The $81,000–$86,000 range is a super supply zone—long-term holding costs, options Gamma, and previous trapped positions all stacked together. To break through, volume plus macro support are both needed; missing either is futile.
Third thing: You need to clearly see the cracks in the fundamentals.
Institutional channels are solid support: total ETF size about $100 billion, IBIT continues to attract funds, $3 billion inflow in August. Mid to late August also saw large-scale short squeezes, resonating with ETF buying to push prices up.
But cracks exist:
- Compared to the $126,000 all-time high, still down 38%
- From 2026 to now, ETFs have overall net outflows; August only recovered half
- High interest rates are not over; funding costs are unfriendly to leverage
- Large trapped positions near $80,000 just recently freed, selling pressure could surge anytime
Trading strategy
Bullish approach:
Light long positions on pullbacks to 76,800–77,200, stop loss at 76,400 or 75,500, targets at 78,300–78,800, second target 79,800–80,200. Consider adding positions above 80,000 aiming for 81,000.
Bearish approach:
Only consider short if there is a confirmed break below 76,800 (4-hour close with volume), targets 75,500 → 73,000.
Breakout strategy:
A daily close above 81,100 with a pullback that holds is the real signal of trend reversal.Jiang Zhuoer: Bitcoin will face its first test since 8.19, having sold 50% of ETH spot positions
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Leibite mining pool, recently stated that this round of the rally is facing a critical test. BTC spot ETFs have ended nine consecutive days of capital inflows and turned to net outflows. Coupled with the hawkish signals released at Jackson Hole, the rebound that started on August 19 is officially facing its first substantial pressure test. Meanwhile, he reduced 50% of his ETH spot holdings during this downturn, securing some profits.
From a market optimistic perspective, this is just a phase of portfolio adjustment. He has not completely liquidated ETH, still holding some base positions and retaining idle funds, waiting to re-enter after a pullback. This is a high-sell operation within a bull market, not a full bearish outlook on the long cycle.
Personal view: The big players reducing positions is more of a risk control move and should not be directly interpreted as a market top signal.
His trading style is trend-following but not stubbornly holding; when the market overheats or capital turning points appear, he shrinks positions. Under the dual pressure of ETF capital shifts and hawkish macro signals, it is appropriate to reduce spot holdings at high levels to avoid severe volatility caused by macro news. However, personal portfolio adjustments do not mean the market is completely over.
From the market perspective, the current divergence between bulls and bears is widening, and the greed index remains high. The big players' actions can be used as a sentiment reference but should not be blindly followed. The short-term market direction mainly depends on U.S. Treasury yields and ETF capital flows.As soon as Walsh spoke, NVIDIA plummeted 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed 3.5%.
Yesterday, the Nasdaq just celebrated a +1.57% rally, with NVIDIA soaring +8.74% in a single day, adding $442 billion in market cap, and the whole internet was shouting AI is unbeatable.
Today? It all reversed.
Federal Reserve Chair Walsh turned hawkish; on the surface, the US stock market's decline seemed minor, with the Dow down only -0.02%. But looking beneath the indices, tech stocks were slaughtered: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 3.47%, with no component spared; Intel dropped over 7%, Arm over 6%, Lam Research over 5%; NVIDIA fell more than 4%—after gaining $442 billion yesterday, it lost 4% today, a day in heaven and a day in hell.
The worst hit was Marvell Technology, plunging over 10%.
Yesterday, it beat earnings expectations and even raised its 2027 revenue guidance after hours, but today it was crushed.
The market fears: when will the revenue from its AI chip deal with Google actually materialize? No matter how sexy the AI story is, it can't withstand rising interest rates.
Saxo Bank summed it up in one sentence: AI valuations rely on the "profit—capital expenditure—loose financial conditions" triangle, and Walsh last night directly pulled out one side of that triangle.
Even more interesting is where the money is hiding: Amazon surged nearly 4% against the trend, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Meta all rose over 1%—all are cash-flow-strong defensive giants.
Capital is moving from "betting on the future" chips to "earning now" giants.
If there really is a rate hike in September, can the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still hold? $NVDA 📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 29)
Short-term longs extremely monopolized but with very small volume; 24-hour longs control the market with an absolute advantage of 955 times, total volume only $106,400, belonging to extremely low liquidity invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $75.45 $75.45 $0
4 hours $75.45 $75.45 $0
12 hours $186.75 $75.45 $111.30
24 hours $106,400 $106,300 $111.30
Longs monopolize 1-4 hours but volume is only $75, considered invalid volume; at 12 hours longs slightly lead by 0.68 times, longs and shorts nearly balanced; at 24 hours longs control with an absolute advantage of 955 times, liquidation $106,300 vs shorts $111.30, total $106,400. 12-hour liquidation accounts for only 0.2%, concentration extremely low. Long multiple surged from 0.68 to 955 times, short squeeze momentum extremely strengthened, but total daily volume only $106,400, an extremely low liquidity invalid market, not suitable as directional reference. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, this coin has very poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 29
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone reignites rate hike expectations, Bitcoin's high-level oscillation deepens linkage with gold, traditional financial institutions accelerate crypto asset layout—three forces reshape the market landscape in the same time window.
🏛️ Wash turns hawkish: September rate hike probability surges to 60%
On August 28 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. He mentioned "inflation" 25 times, clearly stating that US inflation remains "too high," and if price pressures do not ease, the Fed is prepared to raise rates if necessary.
Although Wash emphasized at the start, "Do not take today's speech as forward guidance," the market quickly digested the hawkish signal—the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the meeting to 60%; the two-year US Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points intraday to 4.33%; the US dollar index closed up 0.6%, and the three major US stock indexes all closed lower.
Former Fed Vice Chair Brainard commented that this statement "seems to be looking for a reasonable basis for a rate hike." Capital Macro believes, "We are now more confident the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year." Wash sent the loudest hawkish signal with a "quiet" speech.
₿ BTC high-level oscillation: $80,000 tug-of-war, gold linkage deepens
Bitcoin once touched $81,237 on August 25, breaking the $80,000 mark for the first time since May; international gold prices simultaneously approached $4,700/oz, with a nearly 15% monthly increase, heading toward the strongest monthly gain since September 1999.
The common source of strength for both assets points to the revaluation of fiat credit triggered by US debt surpassing $40 trillion. On August 19, US Treasury Secretary Yellen announced plans to at least double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, after which gold and Bitcoin both surged.
In the past five trading days, ETFs tracking gold and Bitcoin attracted about $7 billion in inflows, setting a record. However, analysts note that much of Bitcoin's recent rise comes from shorts being forced to cover—between August 19-21, nearly $2.5 billion of Bitcoin leveraged short positions were liquidated. The $80,000 level tug-of-war continues.
🏦 Schwab adds SOL, AVAX, and LINK: Traditional broker's crypto ambition
On August 27, financial services giant Charles Schwab, with $13 trillion in assets under management, announced plans to add Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Chainlink (LINK) trading services to the Schwab Crypto platform in the coming months.
Schwab Crypto launched in May 2026, previously only supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum. This expansion increases the platform's crypto asset lineup from 2 to 5. Schwab's digital asset head said, "Clients will be able to build digital asset allocations within the familiar and trusted Schwab experience." The platform charges 75 basis points per trade with zero spread.
After the announcement, SOL, LINK, and AVAX rose 13%, 6%, and 4% respectively. As one of the largest US retail brokers moves from "testing the waters" to "expansion," the boundary between traditional finance and crypto is accelerating to dissolve.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Wash paves the way for a September rate hike with "25 mentions of inflation," hawkish tone confirmed; Bitcoin oscillates near $80,000, strengthening alongside gold due to the $40 trillion US debt-driven fiat credit revaluation; Schwab expands from BTC/ETH to SOL, AVAX, and LINK, accelerating traditional financial institutions' crypto layout. OKB contract liquidation totaled only $106,400 for the day, an extremely low liquidity invalid market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes—capital is rapidly concentrating in top assets. When central bank tone, macro narrative, and institutional expansion converge in the same time window—the market is repricing September in the clearest way. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #财报观察员：AI demand extends to storage and software
The leader has something to say
The AI industry chain earnings reports are basically wrapped up, with computing power, storage, and software all having reported.
NVIDIA and Marvell continue to validate computing power demand. Marvell's revenue grew 37%, and it raised its long-term targets, but its stock price came under pressure after the earnings report. The market is starting to be picky; exceeding expectations is no longer enough, sustained order fulfillment must be seen.
On the storage side, Changxin Technology reported revenue of 150.3 billion and net profit attributable to the parent company of 77.6 billion in the first half of the year, a significant turnaround from losses. The company expects DRAM supply to remain tight in the second half, and LPDDR6 has entered customer validation. However, part of the growth is driven by capacity release and price recovery, which cannot be fully attributed to AI.
On the software side, CrowdStrike, Salesforce, and Okta's performance and guidance are improving, with AI commercialization gradually reflecting in orders and recurring revenue.
The market is comparing the profit and cash flow conversion capabilities of the three chains. Computing power has the largest volume, storage is highly cyclical, and software is the most stable. Whoever can turn demand growth into stable profits and cash flow will get a higher valuation. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market, Bitcoin is around 77,800, Ethereum around 2,430. All long positions have been closed waiting for a pullback, continuing to hold ZEC short positions.
The above analysis is timely; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.The scale of U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the doubling of Treasury repurchase agreements is reshaping fiat currency pricing. The correlation between BTC and gold has risen to over 50%, as the market hedges against debt expansion risks and reassesses dollar liquidity.
Recently, the correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and BTC has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, with funds flowing simultaneously into assets with fixed supply under the pressure of an expected $1.9 trillion fiscal year deficit in U.S. debt. Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have seen a combined net inflow of $7 billion, pushing gold prices close to $4,700/oz, while IBIT attracted $1.5 billion in inflows, helping $BTC surge to $81,237.
At the macro level, policy actions have amplified cross-market linkages. The Treasury has raised the single limit for long-term Treasury repurchases from $2 billion to $4 billion, intensifying market concerns over dollar credit by suppressing long-term interest rates. Funds are accelerating pricing in the derivatives market; between August 19 and 21, leveraged shorts were forced to liquidate nearly $2.5 billion, with short covering further driving prices up.
If the currency depreciation trading logic continues, upward conditions require the Federal Reserve to maintain expectations of easing and rate cuts, while U.S. Treasury real yields remain constrained. When institutional funds reduce bond allocations and shift to hard currencies, sustained high gold prices will consolidate the hedging premium of decentralized assets, driving funds toward high-beta, elastic assets.
Downside risks lie in hawkish Fed rate hike signals triggering dollar liquidity tightening, forcing high-leverage longs to liquidate. Should a Fed policy shift cause a strong rebound in the dollar index, high-leverage long liquidations will suppress BTC’s hedging properties and trigger a deep correction.
The key to judging the failure of this round of hedging logic is whether the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 climbs back above 60%. If the market reclassifies crypto assets as high-beta risk assets rather than hedging tools, the positive correlation between gold and BTC will break.
In the next 7 days, focus on changes in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, Fed policy statements, and whether IBIT net inflows show significant reversal.
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估Yi Lihua says 75500 is an opportunity, but I only believe half of it
Yi Lihua said that if $BTC retraces near 75500, it's a "very good new opportunity," expecting a small pullback followed by a rise. This level is not a guess—75500–76000 is exactly the lower extension of the previous 80,000 consolidation range, also the upper edge of the strong psychological support zone at 75,000. On-chain and historical trading volumes have accumulated chips here, so it's normal to see support if it dips to this point.
But my view is more conservative:
First, 75500 is not a "must reach" level, but "plans are made only if it reaches." Currently, the price is below 79,000, pressured by macro hawkishness (re-pricing of rate hikes after Wash's speech), whales are moving coins to exchanges, and short-term selling pressure remains. A direct V-shaped rebound or further dip to 75,000 are both reasonable.
Second, even if it reaches that point, do not go All in. In Yi Lihua's own framework, "close longs at 86,000 and buy spot on pullback" is essentially a bull market pullback logic; but if macro conditions tighten further and US stock risk appetite worsens, if 75,000 doesn't hold, look toward 70,000. Don't treat support as a fuse.
Third, in terms of position sizing, I only use spot in batches, without leverage to gamble on "precise catch of the dip." Placing one order at 75500 and one at 73500 is much more comfortable than going all in at once.
75500 is worth adding to the watchlist, but don't treat it as a decree. It is an entry zone with probabilistic advantage, not a death-proof card—the bull market pullback and bear market breakdown look similar but have different outcomes.Don't be swept up by hype; rationally view the long-short game of CORE
Recently, there has been a new trend in the overseas crypto community: many long-silent KOLs have started discussing CORE again, and community enthusiasm has quickly warmed up. Market opinions have rapidly polarized, with some bullish forecasts reaching 10U, while others predict a drop to 0.01U.
However, the market rarely moves to these two extremes.
The core bullish logic is a bet on the long-term opportunity of the BTC-Fi track. Currently, lstBTC staking has stabilized yield output, SatPay is advancing compliance integration, native BTC-collateralized stablecoins are still under development, and the project team plans to use ecosystem revenue to buy back tokens. If the product commercializes smoothly and institutional funds enter, the upside potential is considerable. However, the 10U threshold is extremely high and requires multiple conditions to align, making it a low-probability event.
Bears worry about development delays, compliance obstacles, and competition within the track causing narrative falsification. These risks objectively exist, but lstBTC staking has already proven revenue generation, and the project has basic self-sustaining capabilities. Falling to 0.01U is also an extremely low-probability event.
KOLs' concentrated voices are only short-term sentiment catalysts; hype can only amplify volatility, not determine long-term value.
What truly determines CORE's trajectory are verifiable indicators such as staking scale, protocol revenue, SatPay commercialization milestones, and stablecoin development.
There is no need to cling to extreme black-or-white predictions; simply adjust your judgment dynamically according to the project's real progress. #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #BTCETFInflowsSurge #WarshAtJacksonHole THE BOJ JUST NEEDS TO BE A LITTLE MORE HAWKISH – BTC COULD BE AFFECTED BY TOKYO BEFORE THE FED, AND MEMES 🐸 COULD BE THE FIRST TO BE DISCHARGED? There's one central bank that I think crypto traders are underestimating a lot more than the Fed: 🇯🇵 BANK OF JAPAN – BOJ. Everyone is looking: PCE. Fed. US10Y. US30Y. US debt. Hormuz. Tariff. But maybe the next liquidity shock starts thousands of kilometers away from Wall Street: TOKYO. It's worth noting that the BOJ doesn't even need to launch a jabCharles Schwab announced the inclusion of SOL, AVAX, and LINK on its Schwab Crypto trading platform.
This brokerage giant, managing $13.1 trillion in client assets, expanded its asset pool again just three months after opening BTC and ETH trading to nearly 40 million accounts in May this year.
The newly added three assets cover high-performance public chains, multi-chain ecosystems, and oracle infrastructure, no longer limited to the initially value-storage tokens.
What is noteworthy is not the specific coins, but the shift in trading scenarios.
Previously, ordinary investors who wanted to hold SOL often needed to register on crypto exchanges, manage private keys, and deal with deposit and withdrawal restrictions; now these operations are replaced by logging into the Charles Schwab website or the thinkorswim platform, sharing the same account and interface as buying and selling stocks and ETFs.
This marks the transformation of digital assets from "alternative speculative products" to "regular configurable assets." Charles Schwab did not blindly pursue quantity but selected targets with higher institutional recognition and relatively clear ecological logic, reflecting the cautious screening logic of traditional financial institutions entering the crypto field.
The subsequent observation window lies in the actual subscription conversion rate of clients and whether competitors like Fidelity and Vanguard will follow suit within the year. Regardless of the outcome, Charles Schwab's move has already shifted crypto asset access from a marginal channel to the main stage—the boundaries of investment portfolios are being redefined.
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Some friends still seem to not understand: ETFs address the source of funds, macro factors determine the cost of funds, and just because someone is willing to buy $BTC doesn't mean they are willing to chase higher prices indefinitely in a higher interest rate environment. So when looking at the market, you need to separate three sets of data:
First set, allocation demand
ETF inflows, long-term holdings, exchange reserves
Second set, financing conditions
USD, yields, interest rate futures, Fed guidance
Third set, leverage status
Open Interest (OI), funding, liquidations, and long-short ratio
If the first set is strong, the second set loosens, and the third set is not crowded, the trend is best;
If the first set is strong, the second set tightens, and the third set is very crowded, the market will behave like today: the big picture remains unchanged, but the short term will pull down first
So in the future, don't use ETF data to directly override macro risks. ETFs are buyers, the Fed is the price indicator, and leverage is the amplifier; all three data sets must be considered togetherBrothers, it's my first time dealing with gold, seeking advice online, begging the experienced players here to guide me, how to buy safely now?
Gold is quite different from the coins we usually trade. $XAU perpetual contracts are pegged to the spot gold price. Since launching in January, its popularity has soared, with Binance alone seeing trading volumes exceed hundreds of billions of dollars.
Today, spot gold plunged 3.08%, closing at $4457 per ounce. The intraday high hit $4631, then plunged sharply, bottoming at $4444, with a single-day drop close to $190. The price directly broke below the key $4500 level, closing with a large bearish candle. Your screenshot shows a short average price of 4465.4, now the mark price is 4465.3, basically still near the cost line.
The trigger was Fed Chair Wash's hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. He said if inflation doesn't quickly fall back to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do," and the market quickly raised the September rate hike probability from 35% to 60%. The stronger dollar directly suppressed gold.
My view:
The short-term trend has turned bearish. 4400-4450 is the previous technical support zone; if it doesn't hold, it may fall further. But in the medium to long term, global central banks' continued gold purchases and the US fiscal deficit expanding to $1.8 trillion still provide a bottom support for gold.
Advice for beginners:
· Start with a light position, don't go all in at once
· Always set stop-loss; gold is volatile, today's $190 range alone can wipe you out
· Watch the funding rate; if it stays positive (longs pay shorts), the cost of holding longs will slowly be eaten away
· Gold perpetual contracts trade 7×24 hours, unlike US stocks which have market close; news at midnight can still blow you up
Personally, I think short-term bears dominate, but for beginner brothers, I suggest you start with a small position to feel the volatility, don't rush to bet heavily on direction. This thing's volatility is way more exciting than BICO and BEAT.
Brothers, do you think gold will continue to fall or rebound this round? Please share your insights in the comments!
$BTC
$ETH
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Recently, gold and Bitcoin have indeed shown a rare close correlation, with their 90-day correlation surpassing 50%, whereas at the beginning of 2026 this figure was close to zero. Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, marking a shift in Bitcoin's trading logic from a "high beta tech stock" to a "scarce macro asset" similar to gold.
Here is a detailed analysis behind this phenomenon:
Core Driving Force: The Return of the "Debasement Trade"
The synchronous strengthening of both stems from the same macro narrative—concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation and the creditworthiness of the dollar. The specific transmission path is as follows:
1. U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion: On August 18, 2026, the total U.S. federal government debt exceeded $40 trillion, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026.
2. Treasury buyback plan raises concerns: On August 19, Treasury Secretary Bassett announced plans to at least double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks (raising the single transaction cap from $2 billion to $4 billion). The market interpreted this as an attempt by authorities to "suppress long-term interest rates," effectively easing monetary conditions, which instead intensified worries about the dollar's credit and fiscal sustainability.
3. Capital flows into assets "beyond government reach": Against the backdrop of fiat credit reevaluation, assets with limited supply become more attractive—gold reserves are naturally constrained, and Bitcoin's total supply is hard-capped at 21 million by code. Both share the same pricing logic of "hedging fiscal risk."
Market Performance and Capital Flows
Price level: In August 2026, Bitcoin once reached $81,237, marking the strongest August performance in nearly a decade; international gold prices approached $4,700/oz, with a nearly 15% monthly increase, potentially the strongest single-month gain since 1999.
Capital level: Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracted about $7 billion in net inflows, setting a historical record. Among them, the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) saw inflows of nearly $3.4 billion, and the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) about $1.5 billion.
Bitcoin's Special Role: A Faster "Leading Indicator"
Analysts point out that Bitcoin reacts faster to macro changes than gold—its low margin requirements, high leverage, and 24-hour trading characteristics make it a "leading indicator" for fiat credit hedging trades. During this rally, from August 19 to 21, nearly $2.5 billion in leveraged short positions on Bitcoin were liquidated, forcing shorts to cover and further pushing up the price.
Will the Correlation Continue?
Grayscale's research head noted that rolling correlations fluctuate rapidly with new data, insufficient to prove a fully established structural shift. Some strategists believe the momentum of the "debasement trade" is weakening. However, the market generally agrees that concerns over U.S. debt credit, rate cut expectations, and institutional capital allocation needs are unlikely to reverse in the short term.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio recently advised investors to reduce bond holdings, allocate up to 10%-15% of portfolios to gold, and hold a "small amount" of Bitcoin to hedge against U.S. debt crisis risks.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Morgan Stanley just turned bullish on SpaceX, and Elon Musk personally stepped in to "correct" them: "The scale is too small, I estimate it can be achieved by 2033."
Morgan Stanley released a research report predicting that SpaceX's annual revenue will reach $3.5 trillion by 2040, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of $300, saying SpaceX is undervalued. What does $3.5 trillion mean? It's equivalent to 187 times the revenue in 2025.
In response, Musk directly replied on X: "I personally estimate that about $3.5 trillion in revenue will be achieved around 2033." This is 7 years earlier than Morgan Stanley's 2040 forecast.
Some users pointed out that Morgan Stanley's forecast is based on assumptions almost half of SpaceX's own targets, with a timeline about 10 years later than the company's internal plan. Morgan Stanley is already very aggressive, but in Musk's eyes, it's still too conservative.
Analyst consensus is even more conservative: expecting SpaceX's revenue to be about $416 billion by 2030, which is more than 8 times less than Musk's $3.5 trillion.
To achieve Musk's goal, an average annual growth rate of 92% is required, supported by continuous expansion of Starlink + high-frequency launches of Starship + $100 billion Starbase investment in Louisiana.
My view: Musk's predictions are consistently aggressive, so a discounted view is more reasonable. But SpaceX's growth logic is indeed solid—Starlink is already profitable, and once Starship matures, launch costs will plummet, completely unlocking the imagination for the space economy. $3.5 trillion may be exaggerated, but trillion-level revenue is not a dream An ancient whale holding for 12 years moved 40 million: What are we afraid of, and what are they defending against?
Every time I see the headline "Ancient Bitcoin Wallet Awakens," many holders, including myself, instinctively feel a jolt in their hearts.
Six old addresses dormant from 2011 to 2014 recently transferred out 553 BTC, worth about 40 million USD. In a fragile market, everyone fears early OGs dumping and exiting. But following the on-chain path, the chips from five wallets were all diverted into brand-new self-custody addresses, with only 40 BTC sent to a German custody institution. This is not cashing out and fleeing; it’s veteran players upgrading their assets’ cold wallets and multisig security.
Latest data from Galaxy further illustrates the issue: in Q2, dormant Bitcoin movement dropped to the lowest point in nearly four years, expected to be less than half of last year’s total for the full year. Those who have accompanied Bitcoin through its ten-thousand-fold rise are far more patient than we imagine.
Most intriguing is the quantum computing scare. Galaxy’s research director revealed that no existing whales sold coins due to quantum threats; instead, some traditional institutions were scared into slowing their purchases. It’s normal technical precaution for old players to switch early P2PK addresses to Taproot, while off-chain funds hesitate purely out of fear of the unknown.
The hardest thing to resist when holding spot is never market volatility, but the anxiety amplified by noise. When whales move unusually, do you panic and hedge first, or do you habitually verify on-chain?
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Recently, gold and BTC have been closely linked. The following analysis is made on this.
Recently, the correlation between BTC and gold has significantly increased, with the 90-day correlation coefficient reaching a yearly high, showing a pattern of rising and falling together; after the hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, both fell sharply in sync. Essentially, this is the result of the same macro pricing logic combined with parallel institutional ETF fund allocation.
1. Why is there a close linkage now (four core reasons)
1) Both are driven by real interest rates and are interest-free assets
Gold and Bitcoin themselves do not generate interest income; their biggest common enemy is the real yield on U.S. Treasuries.
• When rate cut expectations rise and U.S. Treasury yields fall: gold and BTC rise together;
• When rate hike expectations rise and yields increase: both assets are sold off simultaneously, falling together.
Recently, with hawkish remarks from the Fed, September rate hike expectations surged, U.S. Treasury yields jumped, gold plunged, and BTC simultaneously spiked down—this is a typical "double kill" of interest-free assets.
2) Institutional "currency devaluation trades" simultaneously allocate to two scarce assets
The scale of U.S. debt continues to rise, and the market trades the risk of dollar purchasing power dilution. Institutions no longer choose one or the other but allocate to both gold (traditional hard currency) and BTC (digital gold, a highly elastic version). In the past five trading days, gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs combined inflows totaled about $7 billion, with the same funds increasing positions on both sides, directly boosting synchronized price movements.
Gold is a stable hedge, BTC is a high-beta elastic asset under this narrative, and institutional funds moving in the same direction naturally bind their prices closely.
3) After BTC institutionalization, its attributes have changed
With ETFs launched, a large amount of traditional Wall Street capital has entered, and BTC is no longer just a retail speculative asset. Institutions include BTC in their broad asset portfolios alongside gold, with macro liquidity weighting far exceeding crypto community narratives.
Now BTC’s sensitivity to Fed policy has significantly increased, sharing the same macro pricing framework as gold, while its correlation with Nasdaq tech stocks has temporarily decreased.
4) During liquidity crisis phases, indiscriminate sell-offs occur
When U.S. dollar liquidity tightens, cash is king in the market. Whether it is the safe-haven asset gold or the risk asset BTC, both are sold to obtain dollars.
The traditional logic of "risk down, gold up" fails, and the simultaneous decline of gold and BTC is the phenomenon currently unfolding.
2. Key difference: despite linkage, elasticity is completely different
Although the direction is consistent, the volatility amplitude differs significantly:
• Gold: mild volatility, serving as a benchmark anchor;
• BTC: high beta, rising more in bullish trends and falling deeper; under negative shocks, BTC’s pullbacks are often 2-3 times that of gold.
3. Scenarios where the two diverge (linkage breaks)
1) Pure geopolitical black swan: large-scale conflict erupts, funds seek absolute safety, only buying physical gold for hedging, while risk asset BTC is abandoned. Performance: gold surges, BTC fluctuates or falls.
2) Crypto-specific positive catalysts: BTC experiences unique catalysts, such as massive ETF inflows or halving narratives, leading BTC to strengthen independently while gold remains unchanged.
3) Systemic bull market in U.S. stocks: funds flow into equities, gold cools off, BTC follows the stock market uptrend, and their price movements separate.
4. Post-September FOMC outlook
1) If inflation data falls and rate hike expectations cool: gold recovers first, BTC follows with a rebound, but BTC’s rebound will be stronger;
2) If inflation rebounds and September rate hike expectations continue to rise: gold faces pressure and pulls back, BTC will be dragged down with a larger decline than gold;
3) If a major Middle East geopolitical conflict occurs: gold strengthens, BTC may not follow, breaking the linkage.
Summary: At this stage, BTC is neither a pure risk asset nor a pure safe-haven asset but a "digital scarce hedging asset" sharing macro liquidity pricing with gold. Before the September FOMC, as long as no extreme geopolitical events occur, a high degree of linkage is likely to continue, with BTC acting as a high-volatility amplifier of gold.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#Kalshi lost a very critical lawsuit
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals was very direct: obtaining a CFTC license does not equate to having a pass to bypass gambling regulations across all U.S. states
Kalshi emphasized that it is not a traditional bookmaker but a contract trading platform regulated by the CFTC. Users trade not bets, but sports event contracts
The court believes that if a product trades on match outcomes, point spreads, over/under, player stats, or even parlays, then whether it is called event contracts or prediction markets, it is essentially very close to sports betting
You cannot automatically turn gambling into financial derivatives just by changing bets into buying Yes or No
The court ruled that Kalshi’s sports contracts do not qualify as swaps that trigger exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, so Nevada can still regulate them under local gambling laws. The current CFTC rules also prohibit designated contract markets from listing contracts related to gambling
Previously, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals sided with Kalshi in a New Jersey case, holding that sports event contracts could be considered swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and regulated uniformly by the CFTC
There is now a direct conflict among different U.S. circuit courts
Sports predictions and political or election predictions may not legally be placed in the same category
If Predict plans to focus on the sports market in the future, besides liquidity, gameplay, and settlement efficiency, it also needs to consider licenses, KYC, regional restrictions, and compliance boundaries in advance X Layer's current wave is not just about throwing money around; it's about addressing a critical shortfall: assets have been tokenized on-chain, but the money hasn't truly started moving.
Stablecoin volume has reached nearly $2 billion, DeFi TVL just passed $100 million, and xStocks trading volume has been consistently high—a typical case of "asset landing completed, but liquidity and trading depth haven't caught up yet." Therefore, the official team launched a $5M RWA ecosystem liquidity incentive, with the first round at $300K: $200K for RWA/stablecoin pairs, $100K for RWA/ecosystem token pairs, and later added pools like IGNIX and RTX. Rewards are distributed hourly based on fee contribution share, with advertised APYs that can be very high. Essentially, real money is used to drive LPs and traders into designated pools.
At the same time, there are xPoints bonuses, hackathons (AI Season), Launch Grants, Binance Wallet integration with X Layer, Exchange OS, and other infrastructure. The whole strategy is clear: first tokenize US stocks (SpaceX, NVDA, AAPL, etc. xStocks) into tradable assets, then use RWA + Meme as the propagation layer to boost trading volume and attention. Zakk himself said that RWA Meme aims to turn real capital flow and trading activity into the breakout force for RWA.
Why was $LAIKA singled out?
It's not just another random dog coin. The narrative anchor points are very specific:
• Laika on Sputnik 2 in 1957—the first dog sent to space by humans
• Trading pair directly against wSPCXx (tokenized SpaceX stock)
• 2% trading tax, automatic dividends weighted by holdings over 200,000 tokens representing "SpaceX real-world equity"
• Graduated from mars.fun, included in X Layer's first round of RWA/ecosystem token incentives (LAIKA/wSPCXx Uniswap V2 and XDOG share $100K)
• Liquidity surged early to over $500K, listed on CoinGecko, OKX updated its avatar, and Binance Wallet supports direct trading
Market cap fluctuates around $5–6 million, pool depth and 24h volume show real turnover, not just an "air coin" with narrative but no market.
This is the sample the official team wants: animal meme + space epic + real RWA asset pair + holding dividends. Compared to pure dog or frog coins, it adds a layer of "I’m touching SpaceX on-chain" imagination.
But it hasn't broken out of the animal coin shell yet, that's a fact, not to rain on the parade.
Breaking it down carefully:
1 The narrative is still anthropomorphized animals. Laika's story is touching but essentially "the first space dog." The difference from previous dog, cat, or frog coins mainly lies in its binding to wSPCX, not a reinvention of Meme mechanics.
2 The RWA part is packaging, not the protocol itself. Dividends claim to connect to SpaceX real-world equity with a 200,000 token holding threshold. Such mechanisms must be continuously fulfilled to truly cross from Meme to "narrative assets with cash flow"; if only stated on the website and posters, the market will quickly revert it to animal coin valuation.
3 Incentives are a double-edged sword. Official pools provide liquidity, making the market look good and APYs attractive in the short term. Once the incentive window closes (roughly around September 2 for ecosystem tokens), pools without sustained trading demand will see LPs withdraw and prices retreat.
4 Homogenized competition has already begun. XDOG, IGNIX, and various xStock paired Memes will emerge in batches. Official endorsement only means "this batch qualifies," not "this one can monopolize."
So $LAIKA's current positioning is more accurately: the first qualified RWA-Meme experiment on X Layer, not a fully validated new species. The story is richer than ordinary animal coins, the market depth better than many random dog coins, but the valuation logic still revolves around "narrative premium + incentive premium."
When looking at X Layer, don't just focus on one dog.
What really matters is whether three layers are continuously happening:
• Is the RWA main pool (xStock/stablecoin) building real depth?
• Is RWA-Meme converting off-chain attention into on-chain fees?
• Is the application layer (hackathon projects, Exchange OS, lending, perpetuals) turning TVL from "incentive-driven numbers" into "numbers users can't live without"?
Stablecoins are large, TVL relatively small, indicating money is sleeping soundly on-chain. Incentives are the alarm clock. When it rings, retail investors wake up and get cut; those who remain are pools with real counterparties after incentives end.
Whether $LAIKA is suitable for participation depends on what you treat it as:
As a short-term sentiment play, it has official narrative, pairs, and activity windows;
As a mid-term belief play, first check if dividends are verifiable, holdings are decentralized, and how much liquidity remains after incentives withdraw.
X Layer is igniting, and the fire is real. As for which fuel will burn through this incentive round, the old saying applies—watch the market depth and fulfillment, not just the space dog on the poster.
#XLayer #RWA #LAIKA #Meme #xStocks #OKB
(The above is observation and mechanism analysis, not investment advice. On-chain assets are highly volatile; verify contract 0x4fEC966f98D8530507787d947D1ab24Fa145a999 before participating and bear risks yourself.) Wash clearly stated that inflation targets have not been met, and further rate hikes are not ruled out. Rate hike expectations are fully priced in, market liquidity expectations are tightening, and high-risk altcoins are collectively under pressure. Small-cap coins are experiencing much stronger sell-offs than Bitcoin. In a tightening environment, purely speculative coins will be abandoned by funds, while those with real narratives are relatively more resistant to declines. 1. $ENA Retraced due to macro negative factors, stablecoin narrative provides support. Prediction: The market needs to stabilize before recovery; liquidity tightening makes new highs unlikely; do not chase rebounds. 2. $TRUMP MEME sentiment coin, hit by both news and macro pressure. Prediction: Volatility will explode with repeated spikes; suitable only for quick in-and-out trades; avoid long-term positions. 3. $AAVE DeFi leader, declining risk appetite among investors. Prediction: No independent rally; it will follow the market down; avoid rebounds without volume. 4. $JTO SOL ecosystem coin, ecosystem funds are fleeing. Prediction: High risk under macro headwinds; if SOL doesn't rise, it is unlikely to reverse. 5. $ZEC Privacy coin, supported by ETF narrative. Prediction: Supported by expectations; will be dragged down by poor overall environment; only small position swing trading recommended. 6. $UNI DEX leader, sector heat is low. Prediction: Consolidation and bottoming; liquidity contraction; unlikely to see a major rebound. 7. $PEPE MEME popular coin, purely speculative funds. Prediction: Speculative funds withdraw during tightening cycles; most rebounds are traps; participate cautiously. 8. $DOGE Established MEME, large market cap and dispersed holdings. Prediction: More resistant to declines than small altcoins but unlikely to have a major rally; range-bound trading expected $BTC is now at 77,600. From the intraday high of 81,473, I break down every step of this waterfall for you, and also bring out yesterday's script for verification.
Waterfall path: 81,473 broke below 79,000, triggering the first layer of stop-loss orders. 78,500 was lost, leveraged long positions began a chain of forced liquidations. 77,000 broke, $200 million liquidated in one hour. The lowest touched 76,930.8, now fluctuating around 77,600. What did yesterday's script say? Buy at 75,000, chase at 82,500.
Three key levels. First layer 76,930, yesterday's low, tested multiple times today without breaking, the last face for short-term bulls. Second layer 75,670, Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level, breaking it escalates the pullback. Third layer 74,786, daily EMA50, the lifeline of the script.
RSI dropped straight from 76 to the 50 range, fear and greed index fell from 82 to 68. I wrote yesterday "fear and greed will fall back to above 50," still missing the last stretch, panic hasn't cleared, the pit isn't fully dug. ETF outflow of 202 million is the first in ten days, but here’s a detail: such single-day outflows after nine consecutive buys historically have a 70% chance of being institutional rebalancing, not exit. Return flow, the pit is a gold pit.
Judgment criteria in black and white: close back above 79,000, script restarts, 82,500 target extended to September. See you at next Monday's close.
#BTC #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #Shakeout #ScriptVerification今天的盘面，我反而想把镜头往后移一点。 $BTC 从前几天的 $81K上方回落到$77K–78K附近，ETH也回到$2,400附近。表面看是一次普通回调，但如果把几个板块放在一起看，会发现市场正在发生一件更重要的事情： 资金开始重新给不同的加密资产定价。 以前的逻辑很简单：BTC涨，ETH跟，山寨再跟。 但现在越来越不像这样了。 $SOL、$HYPE、$ZEC这些币最近表现出来的东西完全不同。 $SOL交易的是公链本身的活跃度和资金承载能力；$HYPE背后是链上永续合约和交易量；$ZEC则更接近隐私叙事和极端行情下的高Beta资产。 它们已经不是单纯等待BTC“带着上涨”。 这点其实非常重要。 因为如果未来市场继续成熟，山寨币之间的差距只会越来越大。 你不能再简单地说： “牛市来了，前100名全部买一遍。” 这种玩法可能越来越难。 真正有资金沉淀、用户使用、手续费收入和生态网络效应的项目，会越来越容易获得资金；没有真实需求、只靠叙事和流动性推动的项目，则会越来越像一次性行情。 比如DeFi这一块，我现在会重新观察 $AAVE、$UNI、$PENDLE。 AAVE看借贷，UNI看交易基础soon as Waller spoke at Jackson Hole, the market's September script was overturned.
Waller's remarks at Jackson Hole pierced the market consensus of "status quo in September."
The core message is twofold: inflation remains above 2%, and financial conditions have not reached restrictive levels. Translated, this means interest rates should not only not be cut but there is even room for further tightening. At last night's Jackson Hole annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh unexpectedly took a hawkish stance, clearly stating that "the 2% inflation target remains unchanged," dashing the market's dovish signal. BTC plunged directly from above 80,000, hitting a low near 76,000, with ETH falling in tandem. 📊 Why was it sideways all day? 1️⃣ Bulls stunned by liquidations — 470 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours, 77% were bulls, and short-term bottom-fishing power was depleted. 2️⃣ ETF funds diverged — BTC ETFs ended a 9-day net inflow, with a net outflow of 200 million yesterday; ETH ETFs instead saw net inflows of 100 million, indicating capital rotation between sectors rather than a full exit. 3️⃣ Poor liquidity over the weekend, large orders easily trigger insertions, and major players are watching next week's nonfarm payroll data, hesitant to act rashly. 🔍 Conclusion: This is not a "nothing" consolidation, but a healthy pullback within an uptrend. Whether the pullback ends depends on whether macro sentiment can warm up next week. Current support: BTC 75,000 / ETH 3200 (near previous low) Resistance above: BTC 80,000 / ETH 3500 Short-term traders can wait for the upper and lower boundaries of the range to trade swings, while medium- to long-term traders should focus on pullback stabilization signals. Don't let sideways wear down patience; major rallies often follow sideways movement. #沃什强调通胀风险, September rate hike expectations heat up #BTC高位多空拉锯, gold linkage strengthens #ETH强势拉升, short positions liquidate over $1.1 billion In one sentence from Warsh, BTC dropped $4,500, 96,800 people liquidated with $474 million in losses
Last night at 10 PM, Warsh made his Jackson Hole debut and said only one thing: inflation is still too high, and the Federal Reserve "still has a lot of work to do." He didn't mention rate hikes, but the market interpreted it as hawkish—the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 60%.
BTC plunged from a high of 81,500 to 77,000 in one hour, with $474 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, burying 96,800 people. ETH simultaneously dropped to 2,430, gold fell below 4,500, and the dollar strengthened—a typical liquidity tightening trade.
But to be honest: even without Warsh, it was bound to fall. A 25% rise in 7 days, profit-taking piled up around the 80,000 mark, open interest hit a high, and both bulls and bears were betting on direction. Warsh just lit the fuse, not the root cause.
After a crash, the two worst things are: first, panic selling at the lowest point; second, rushing to catch a falling knife. The market needs time to digest hawkish signals, and with rising expectations of a September rate hike, volatility will continue to increase.
This week, the price rose from 64,000 to 81,500 and then fell back to 77,000—a roller coaster ride. Truly mature traders neither FOMO during surges nor panic during crashes.
Were you liquidated last night? Or did you successfully avoid it? Let's chat in the comments. We'll review this week's market on Monday, stay tuned to avoid getting lost.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #Warsh #JacksonHole #Liquidation #MarketAnalysis Jackson Hole this time, the crypto market is finally looking up for real. Kevin Warsh spoke on Friday for the first time as Fed Chair, and the market has already priced in a 36% chance of a rate hike in September. Don't underestimate this number; it means the 'rate cut narrative' that everyone assumed in the first half of the year has been torn open.
For BTC, the $80,000 level is no longer just a technical barrier but a vote on 'how much longer dollar liquidity can hold.' The previous two touches didn't hold, and if this third test happens amid rising hawkish expectations, the nature changes—not a buying impulse, but the market repricing the discount rate of risk assets.
My judgment: the short-term direction depends on the tone of Friday's speech, but not on what he says, rather on whether the market's acceptance of 'higher for longer' changes marginally. If the rate hike probability jumps from 36% to above 45%, $BTC will likely first retreat to 72-74k to regroup; if the probability falls below 25%, then the area above 80k could really become the new lower bound of the trading range.
No guessing price points, just observing signals. This weekend, it's worth turning up the volume on the macro conference's voice.#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
The yen fell below 160. I believe the real trading opportunity is not the yen itself, but the global cost of capital starting to change again.
After Wash turned hawkish, the dollar index rose 0.55% in a single day, and USD/JPY climbed back above 160; previously, the joint intervention by Japan and the US had pulled the exchange rate from 163.99 down to about 155.2, but now most of that has been given back, indicating that the power of interest rate differential trading still outweighs policy intervention.
The real beneficiaries are dollar assets and Japanese export stocks, but this is not necessarily purely positive for BTC: a weaker yen means stronger dollar liquidity, but it also means Japan might intervene again. Once the carry trade reverses, risk assets tend to be sold off together. Previously, BTC ETFs attracted about $2.8 billion in a single week, but on August 28, there was a net outflow of $202 million, and BTC also dropped to around $77,000, indicating that capital is becoming cautious.
The market has already priced in yen weakness, but 160 itself is a policy-sensitive level.
I am most optimistic about Japanese export stocks, followed by BTC. It is worth paying attention to the current situation, but going long above 160 is not advisable; the real opportunity lies in whether the yen continues to depreciate or is suddenly lifted by intervention — the latter could trigger carry trade unwinding and a global risk asset sell-off.3 billion USD Treasury bonds are lying dormant on-chain, with lending pools only at 2 million; how much longer must the crypto world wait for the RWA narrative?
RWA on the Stellar chain has surpassed 3 billion, with Franklin Templeton and Ondo lining up to bring US Treasuries on-chain. But the capital pools that can use these government bonds as collateral to borrow money amount to only 2 million USD.
To me, this signals that the RWA narrative is far from mature.
Why? There are gaps in compliance and liquidation. Institutions are willing to go on-chain because Stellar has built-in whitelisting and freezing functions, allowing assets to be audited and intercepted. However, tokenized US Treasuries update their net asset value only once daily and are closed on weekends, while on-chain lending operates 24/7. Facing assets that don’t update prices for dozens of hours, oracles simply dare not feed prices. Institutions treat public chains as "electronic ledgers" rather than financial infrastructure.
This situation means that in crypto, the RWA concept is still mainly speculative, with real utilization rates too low. The entire 3 billion in assets is dormant, with only 2 million in lending pools—indicating that real liquidity has yet to start.
My judgment: The RWA sector is worth long-term attention, but currently it is more story than performance. Watch for changes in real utilization rates and don’t be fooled by total scale figures. Only when oracles and liquidation systems are fully operational will it be a true entry signal. $XLM $BTC Recently, the price movements of Bitcoin and gold have become increasingly synchronized. I don't think it has much to do with risk appetite; the core issue is one thing: the US dollar's credit is in trouble.
A few months ago, the two often moved independently—BTC followed the US stock market, while gold went its own way. But since August, it's been different. The US dollar index fell below 99, while long-term US Treasury yields surged to 5.3%. This combination is very unusual—normally, high interest rates should strengthen the dollar, but now it's falling, indicating capital is flowing out.
Where is it going? To gold and BTC. ETFs have seen inflows of $7 billion over five days, a large volume. Simply put, US debt has reached $40 trillion, and the Treasury is expanding bond buybacks. The market interprets this as more money printing to fill the gap. The more money printed, the more there is, but BTC is capped at 21 million, and gold production can't increase significantly, so capital can only buy these.
There will definitely be short-term pullbacks; after a big rise, a drop is normal. But as long as the US government keeps borrowing and the dollar keeps depreciating, this trend won't break. Don't worry about daily ups and downs; as long as this logic remains unchanged, it's fine.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
The U.S. brokerage giant Charles Schwab officially announced that its platform will soon support direct trading of SOL, AVAX, and LINK. Previously, the platform only supported BTC and ETH. This traditional financial institution, managing $13 trillion in client assets, is no longer limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum; it is officially including mainstream public chains and infrastructure altcoins in its retail allocation pool, marking a landmark event for the entire crypto space.
Core Logic of the Event
1. From "Only Allocating Bitcoin" to Expanding Altcoins
In May this year, Charles Schwab launched BTC and ETH spot trading, and within just three months, it is expanding further. SOL and AVAX are layer-one public chains, and LINK is the underlying infrastructure for oracles. All selected are large-cap assets validated by the market, not small-cap vapor coins, representing a further broadening of traditional wealth institutions' understanding of the crypto ecosystem. Tens of millions of U.S. retail investors no longer need to use overseas exchanges; they can allocate these coins within their stock accounts, opening a mid-to-long-term incremental capital inflow.
2. The Positive Impact Is Expected, Don’t Overhype
The new coins will be available only after a few months, not immediately. Upon the announcement, SOL already surged in advance, partially realizing some of the positive expectations, so short-term price action may show a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern.
This mainly solves the "channel" problem and does not mean funds will blindly pour in. Ultimately, buying pressure depends on the genuine allocation willingness of ordinary U.S. investors.BTC surged then pulled back, gold correlation strengthened, options expiration—what exactly is playing out today?
Deribit has $6.4 billion in options expiring, with 75K and 80K as the biggest pain points. Market makers are hedging and forcibly pulling the price into this range; the surge and pullback is just mechanical action, not a trend reversal.
On the other hand, gold and BTC ETFs have collectively attracted $7 billion in the last 5 days. With the dollar weakening and Treasury repo expanding, funds are flowing back into scarce assets. These two factors combined mean short-term volatility but the long-term logic remains intact.
In this wave, were you caught in a two-way squeeze or did you hold steady? Share your thoughts in the comments.
$BTC 提前看到特朗普演讲稿，他靠“预测特朗普说什么”赚了10万美元。 美国CFTC 8月28日处罚前白宫提词器操作员 Gabriel Perez。 因为工作关系，他能在特朗普正式演讲前看到演讲内容，然后去预测市场下注“特朗普会不会说某个词”。 CFTC认定，他利用未公开信息获利 107,539美元。 最终要全额吐出利润，再交 65,000美元罚款，并被禁止交易3年。Perez在和解中没有承认相关认定。 一、这已经不是预测，而是提前看答案 普通交易者只能根据特朗普过去的讲话习惯、当天议题去猜。 Perez却因为工作提前接触演讲内容，再去交易相关合约。 简单说，别人还在猜特朗普会不会说这个词，他已经提前看过演讲稿了。 二、预测市场也开始遇到“内幕信息”问题 这件事真正值得看的，是预测市场发展起来以后，也开始面对传统金融市场早就存在的问题： 有人是不是比其他交易者提前知道答案？ 股票市场里，提前知道财报或重大公告再交易，很容易理解为什么有问题。现在预测市场规模越来越大，同样的问题也出现了。 三、信息优势以后可能越来越值钱 未来如果总统讲话、政策、选举甚至更多现实事件都可以交易，那么能提前接触内部信$BTC
Let's talk about BOTTOM
I called the short at $97k and said to wait for a minimum of $58k, with $54k as the worst-case scenario.
BTC tapped my key support and front-ran the $54k worst case.
Current indications suggest the bottom is already in. We should start moving higher from here.
Anyone looking to build a long position can look at the Grey Zone.
Possibility of $54k? Not unless a black swan event hits.
What’s next?
A tap of the Grey Zone, then a move toward $91kLet's talk about the current status of the new coin $AEON, and also take a look at the current crypto market and the top 5 mainstream coins
Recently, I came across the price chart of the new coin $AEON. Honestly, after seeing the full candlestick, I felt quite emotional. When it just launched, it surged directly to a high of 0.185. Many new investors dreamed of making a big profit right away, but the good times didn't last long; it kept dropping all the way down to a low of 0.04935.
Now let's talk about the top 5 coins by market cap
ETH Ethereum: The second-in-command in the crypto world, the leader of public blockchains. Most DeFi and NFT projects run on it. After the upgrade, there are many narratives, but the downside is that Gas fees can sometimes be expensive. Its price basically follows BTC; in a bull market, its volatility tends to be greater than Bitcoin's, and in a downturn, it also falls more sharply than Bitcoin.
$SOL Solana: The recent star public chain, fast and low fees. Dog coins and MEME coins love to launch on this chain. Its price has strong explosive power, surging fiercely and dropping sharply without mercy. It represents high volatility and high risk, favored by traders who like to gamble on price movements.
$BNB Binance Coin: The exchange platform coin, tied to the Binance ecosystem. When the exchange market is good, it performs strongly; when negative news hits the exchange, it tends to come under pressure. It has a burn mechanism as a floor, suitable for people who frequently trade on Binance. Its price fluctuations are milder compared to small altcoins.
$XRP Ripple: An old established coin, with the story of cross-border payments. The lawsuit has been going back and forth, mainly driven by news. Whenever there is good news, it rallies sharply; without news, it trades sideways, relying mainly on news-driven speculation.
$BTC $ETH The 50x short position on $AAVE dropped from 128.48 to 121.64, with an unrealized profit of 266%. Recently, the inflow speed of stablecoins into the AAVE protocol has been slowing down, with fewer new funds coming in and the pool expansion decelerating.
Without incremental stablecoins, protocol revenue can't increase, and the price lacks support. At 50x leverage, don't bet on inflow restarting; take 90% profit directly, keep 10% for stop loss at 128.48 to break even, and move stop loss to 124.
Those who haven't entered should watch the stablecoin net inflow data and avoid buying when the growth rate slows. $BTC $ETH $BTC decoupling from US stocks?
A signal more important than BTC surging to 80,000 has already appeared.
Grayscale data shows that the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen from nearly 0 at the start of the year to over 50%, while the correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from 60% to 33%. Institutional funds are collectively changing their logic: shifting from "high beta tech assets" to "scarce assets + hedge against currency depreciation."
Behind this is the macro reality of US debt surpassing 40 trillion and high long-term interest rates, with "fiat dilution trades" heating up, benefiting both gold and BTC simultaneously.
But don’t officially declare BTC has completely become digital gold: BTC spot ETFs just ended a 9-day inflow streak, with a single-day net outflow of $202 million. Institutional fund switching is always rapid.
Going forward with BTC, you can’t just focus on crypto news. The weights of these three macro variables—gold for safe haven, US debt for funding costs, and the dollar for liquidity—are becoming increasingly significant.
If BTC continues to maintain a "close to gold, distant from Nasdaq" status, what changes is not just the short-term candlestick but the entire valuation framework used by the industry for years.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Recently, the price correlation between Bitcoin and gold has been significantly strengthening.
A few months ago, the two asset classes often diverged and moved independently, but the pattern has changed since August. With the weakening of the US dollar and the expansion of US long-term Treasury repurchase volumes, incremental funds have begun flowing simultaneously into the Bitcoin and gold markets. Bitcoin once surged past the $80,000 mark, and international gold prices also climbed near $4,700.
Data shows that in just the last five trading days, the combined net inflow of funds into gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs has approached $7 billion.
In my view, this rally can no longer be simply explained by a warming of market risk appetite.
A classic logic is reasserting itself in trading: liquidity remains persistently loose, while the incremental supply of Bitcoin and gold is very limited.
In the short term, some volatility and pullbacks are inevitable for both. But as long as concerns over US dollar credit and US debt issues remain unresolved in a substantive way, the main trend of gold + Bitcoin likely has not yet run its course.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Bitcoin really played with my nerves this week
On Wednesday, it was still hovering above 81,000, but as soon as Fed Chair Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, the market turned upside down. The probability of a rate hike in September surged from 35% to 57%, and $BTC immediately dropped to 76,800, with longs liquidating nearly 500 million USD. Although the low on Friday held for the time being, the 81,000 level feels like an iron ceiling—three attempts to break through failed, with the 50-week moving average and trapped positions pressing down there. The good news is that ETF net inflows in August exceeded 3 billion, showing institutions are indeed backing with real money; the bad news is that rate hike expectations are still brewing, and leveraged funds are hurting in this high-interest environment. The price is now grinding around 77,700, and the RSI has mostly recovered, but the direction is unclear. My own strategy is simple: if it doesn't break 76,800, lightly go long with a stop loss at 76,400 and a target of 78,300; if it truly breaks down, cut losses and wait to buy again at 73,000. To reverse the trend, volume must pick up and break above 81,000; otherwise, it will remain choppy. Liquidity is poor over the weekend, so watch out for spikes and avoid heavy positions overnight. #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 ETH at $2435, do you dare to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: a spike followed by a pullback, retail investors are panicking.
In mid-August, it violently surged nearly 35% from around 1900, reaching a high of 2560, then pulled back to the current 2435. In 24 hours, derivatives liquidations neared $500 million, with longs bleeding heavily. The candlestick tells you: the price is exactly on the lower channel boundary of 2420-2440, with the 50-day moving average at 1991 and the 200-day at 2018; the price is well above the moving averages, the mid-term bullish trend remains unchanged, but short-term digestion is needed.
First thing: institutions are buying frantically, but you’re panicking?
ETH ETFs have had net inflows for 10 consecutive trading days, with $102 million flowing in on August 28 alone, and weekly inflows hitting a new high since 2026. BlackRock ETHA is carrying the bulk, BitMine (Tom Lee’s side) continues buying, with holdings approaching 4.8% of circulating supply.
Institutions dared to buy at 2800-2900, now at 2435 they are even more confident.
Second thing: The Fed says "more rate hikes to come," but you might be overreacting.
At Jackson Hole on August 28, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave a hawkish speech: "Inflation hasn’t returned to the 2% target yet, we still have work to do." The probability of a September rate hike was quickly revised upward, BTC dropped from above 80,000 to around 77,000, and ETH followed with a pullback.
July’s PCE inflation was 3.7%, still above 2%, but it has fallen sharply from the peak. The federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% is already restrictive.
The market is oscillating between "maintaining high rates longer" and "possibly one more hike," but in any case, the rate hike cycle is nearing its end.
Third thing: a technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared.
On the daily chart: after breaking out from a long consolidation around 1900 in mid-August, an ascending channel formed, with resistance near 2560. The current price of 2435 is exactly on the channel’s lower boundary/recent support zone of 2420-2440. RSI has fallen from overbought 70+ to 69-70, MACD remains above zero but momentum is slowing—a typical "overbought needs a rest," not a trend reversal.
Bull vs. bear showdown, judge for yourself
On one side:
Institutions’ ETFs have had net inflows for 10 consecutive days, BlackRock’s main force keeps buying
Staking rate at 30-34%, circulating supply continues to lock up
ETH has become the "internet bond," institutional allocation logic has changed
Price is well above 50/200-day moving averages, mid-term bullish trend intact
On the other side:
Fed hawkish speech, September rate hike probability revised upward
Weekend liquidity thin, emotions easily amplified
Short-term profit-taking (SOPR persistently >1)
If it breaks below the 2400 channel lower boundary, it may retest 2360-2300
Resistance above: 2480-2500 → 2550-2580 (recent highs) → 2800-3000
Support below: 2420-2440 → 2360-2400 → 2300 (mid-term bull-bear dividing line)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for a pullback to 2420-2440 with a reversal candlestick (hammer, engulfing), try a small long position, stop loss at 2380, first target 2480-2500, second target 2550-2580. If it rebounds to 2490-2520 and meets resistance, lightly short with stop loss at 2550, target back to 2420.
Swing traders:
Reduce positions and observe if it breaks below 2400, don’t hold hard. As long as the daily chart doesn’t effectively break below 2300, mid-term remains bullish, pullbacks are better entry windows. Break through 2550-2600 and hold, add positions on the right side targeting 3000.
Long-term believers:
DCA below 2400. Staking lock-up + continuous ETF inflows + Glamsterdam upgrade (L1 gas limit raised to 200 million, throughput greatly improved), mid-term narrative intact.
ETH now is like Bitcoin in 2023—
99% of people think "it’s risen too much and should fall," but every pullback has been a historic bottom.
On the day it breaks 2550, you’ll realize:
It’s not that ETH is weak, it’s that you always cut losses at the darkest moment before dawn.
What’s your ETH cost basis?
At 2435, do you dare to bottom-fish?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $SOL is just a deleveraging pullback after an event-driven breakout, not a trend reversal to bearish.
Current price 103.33, -2.68%. The previous day's governance vote passed, accelerating inflation decline and resource fee burning, combined with Schwab listing and continuous net inflows into the SOL ETF, are the real engines behind this rally, not Meme hype. During the pullback, contract OI has dropped by 3.74%, indicating high leverage is withdrawing; the washout looks worse than the price but the structure is still intact.
Strategy: Do not chase shorts, hold near 103; wait for stabilization around 101–100 before adding. First resistance at 106.7, a volume breakout above this targets 110–115; strong support and bull-bear boundary at 98, exit immediately if broken. BTC weakness today may slow the pace, but as long as 100 holds, this looks more like a confirmation pullback; a close below 98 would invalidate the bullish view.$PENGU This 50x short position dropped from 0.009513 to 0.008985, with an unrealized profit of 277%. The cancellation frequency of iceberg orders on the spot order book has recently accelerated; large orders are placed and then withdrawn, indicating that market makers are probing the real buy-side depth and do not want to actually take the position at this price level.
When cancellations happen quickly, the order book becomes thin, and the price can easily be pierced by a slightly larger sell order. At 50x leverage, do not gamble on this probing order book; take 90% profit directly, keep 10% with a stop loss at 0.009513 to break even, and move the stop loss to 0.00915.
For those who haven't entered, watch the rhythm of iceberg order placements and cancellations; that is the window to judge the true attitude of market makers. $BTC $ETH This market, bulls and bears are taking turns getting hit, so let's do a thorough review today.
First, let's talk about the market situation. BTC is fluctuating around 80,000, ETH is hovering at high levels. With options expiry combined with macro news, the spikes are wild, and both bulls and bears are getting crushed hard.
BTC is swinging back and forth between 78,000 and 81,300: first squeezing shorts, liquidating a bunch of short positions cleanly. Just as the bulls chasing the highs get on board, it reverses sharply again, washing them out. ETH is swinging between 2,480 and 2,540 following BTC, with very obvious two-way liquidations on the contracts side—both longs and shorts are losing out.
Within 24 hours, tens of billions in liquidations occurred again. First, it kills the shorts who tried to top out, then the pullback sweeps the bulls chasing highs. High leverage in this kind of market is basically a giveaway.
My judgment is that before options expiry, market makers are firmly holding the price near the 80,000 level to hedge. Now that this constraint is lifted, the direction choice is right in front of us.
The ETF spot buying is still supporting the bottom, but once the Fed speaks, short-term sentiment will definitely be stirred up. However, news can only cause short-term shocks and cannot change the mid-term trend of spot funds.
Right now, it's definitely not a one-sided bull market, but a typical high-level shakeout and consolidation. After a rise, a pullback is inevitable. The main players are washing out leveraged positions back and forth, sweeping out all the weak hands.
$BTC $ETH