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SOL at $103, do you dare to bottom-fish? First, look at the surface: a barrage of positive news, but the price doesn't rise. In the past two weeks, it surged from 75 to 110, a nearly 40% increase in about a month. SGP-0002 passed, raising annual inflation from 15% to 30%, reducing SOL issuance by 18.8 million over the next 6 years. Bitwise BSOL AUM broke $1 billion, with $60.91 million inflow on August 27 alone. Charles Schwab plans to add SOL to its trading channels. All good news. Yet SOL dropped from 110 back to 103. Daily chart shows overbought pullback, 4-hour uptrend line broken, the 100 level is a battleground between bulls and bears. First thing: SGP-0002 passed, but you might have been misled. Voting result was 67.001%, just over the two-thirds threshold. Kraken flipped to bullish at the last moment to barely pass. Why so tight? Because staking yields will be suppressed. Models show nominal staking yield dropping from 5.2% to 2.25% in three years. Validator interests are divided. Retail sees "deflationary benefits," institutions see "big stakers withdrawing." SGP-0003 (increasing burn) failed; daily burn remains 650 SOL, supply reduction relies on "printing less" rather than "burning more." Second thing: ETF funds are still flowing in, but macro is not buying it. Bitwise pumped in $60.91 million in one day, ARK is still buying, Solana-related products have net inflows, but BTC is withdrawing massively—$280 million outflow. Friday’s Jackson Hole debut, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hawkish: PCE at 3.7%, 2% is the "hard target," "if inflation doesn’t return to target, we still have work to do." September rate hike odds rose from 35% to 55%-60%. BTC dropped from 81,000 directly to 77,600. Gold also fell, risk assets uniformly priced for "higher for longer." Third thing: technicals show divergence signals. From 75 to 110, SOL rose 46%. Daily RSI hit 70-80 overbought zone, now retreating to neutral. 4-hour uptrend line broken, short-term bears drawing a "108-110 rejection" pattern. But daily structure remains: higher lows. 75→87→95→102, this uptrend is intact. 100 is a newly broken psychological level; first retest, bulls must defend. Bull vs bear showdown, judge for yourself On one side: SGP-0002 passed, annual deflation doubled, supply contraction Bitwise ETF $60.91 million single-day inflow, institutions putting real money in Charles Schwab channel opened, mid-term retail capital expectations TVL $5.85 billion, stablecoins $16 billion, no on-chain sell-off Daily chart still higher lows structure On the other side: Jackson Hole hawkish turn, September hike odds up to 55-60% 110 volume sell-off, 4-hour trend line broken Staking yield to drop from 5.2% to 2.25%, validator interests diverging Avici hacked for $500,000, weekend sentiment dampened If BTC breaks 75,000, SOL’s 100 level likely lost too Resistance above: 104.5-106 (intraday bull-bear divide) → 108-110.6 (core supply zone) → 112-115 Support below: 102-100 (first defense line) → 97.5-98.5 (golden retracement zone) → 94-95.5 (main uptrend invalidation line) Trading strategy Short-term players: 103 is not the best entry point. Wait to place low buy orders at 100.2-100.8, stop loss 95.8, target 108. If rebound stalls at 105.8-108.2, short the pullback, stop loss 110.8, target 101-98. Swing traders: Scale in long at 100-102, add 50-60% at 97-98, stop loss 95.8. Take 30% profit at 106-108, another 30% at 110.5, keep some for 115-120. Remember to reduce positions at 108-110. Long-term believers: Blindly dollar-cost average at 96-100. Institutional channels + supply contraction + real usage all improving simultaneously, mid-term logic intact. Invalidation conditions: 4-hour close above 106 and BTC steady at 78,000 → bulls retake control Daily close below 96 with volume → 100 breakout failed, look at 92 then 86 BTC daily breaks 75,000 → all technical levels give way, reduce positions first SOL now looks like ETH in August 2025— Supply cut proposal just passed, ETF inflows continue, retail oscillating between "chasing highs and getting trapped" and "cutting losses and missing out." The day 104.5 is reclaimed, you’ll realize: It’s not that SOL is weak, it’s that you always chase at the 110 peak and sell at the 100 floor. What’s your SOL cost basis? At 103, do you dare to bottom-fish? $BTC $SOL $ETH