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📌 Title
Dropped 4000 points in three days, how much is a word from Waller worth?
📝 Content
On Monday, BTC fell below 78,000. Just three days ago, it was still above 81,000.
From Wednesday to Sunday, Bitcoin dropped nearly 5%, wiping out most of last week's gains. The reason is just one — Waller said one sentence at Jackson Hole: "If underlying inflation does not clearly and quickly fall back, the Fed still has work to do."
The market translated "still has work to do" into a September rate hike probability rising from 35% to over 60%. Then BTC plunged from 81,500 to 77,000.
Someone asked me, is this really bearish? I don't think so; this is a reset of expectations. Rate hikes are not news; the market fears "uncertainty." Waller gave a relatively clear signal: if inflation doesn't come down, I will act. With direction clear, funds actually know how to position themselves.
Now, a few situations I’ve observed:
First, some are stepping in. Although ETFs had a slight net outflow on Thursday and Friday, the whole week still saw over 900 million net inflow, and Ethereum ETFs continue to attract capital. Institutions haven’t fled; they’re just adjusting positions.
Second, derivatives are deleveraging. In the past 24 hours, liquidations reached $150 million, mostly longs. The rise was too fast before; now washing out leverage is good for the future, though the process is painful.
Third, a critical level is near. BTC is around 77,000; if this level doesn’t hold, the next support is at 75,000. But the weekend’s low-volume decline without panic selling shows bulls haven’t given up. ETH and SOL are falling in sync, ETH near 2,400, SOL near 101, both previous breakout levels.
What I want to say is: this is not panic, it’s a correction. Waller’s speech is important, but if September rate hikes really happen, the market is already digesting it in advance. Once emotions settle, what should come back will come back.
My current approach is simple: no adding positions, no cutting losses, no guessing the bottom. Wait for BTC to return above 78,000 before making moves.
Brothers, did you get swept out this round? Let’s chat in the comments👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK $BTC $ETH $SOL 🚨 TONIGHT’S $BTC PUMP ISN’T ABOUT WAR — THE MARKET IS TELLING US SOMETHING BIGGER.
I went back and checked the information behind tonight’s move. At first glance, it looks like a risk-off rotation, with Bitcoin breaking higher as the market treats it like “digital gold.”💎
But there’s one problem with that narrative:
Gold didn’t see the same kind of capital flow.💵
So I’m not convinced this pump is simply because of the so-called🥏$SNDK (Medium-term strong, short-term overheated):
AI storage super cycle + 93.9 billion long-term support logic, but it has moved far from the 5-day moving average. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to 1400–1450 before scaling in.
$SPCX (Bearish bias, avoid catching a falling knife):
Retraced and consolidated sideways from the previous high of 149–150, compounded by two rounds of lock-up releases on 8/6 and 8/20 putting pressure, shrinking volume, and weakening MACD. Short-term support is expected at 140.
$SKHY (Wrongly punished by macro factors):
HBM's top player fundamentals remain intact. Today's decline is purely due to the Fed's hawkish stance (September rate hike probability rising from 35% to 60%), dragging it down. Wait for rate hike expectations to cool off and a pullback to 150–155 (ADR) before positioning more securely.Brothers, waking up this morning and seeing this market, are you confused?
The celebration of just breaking through 80,000 dollars hasn't even warmed up, and Bitcoin just plunged headfirst, directly losing 78,000, hitting a low of 76,989. It's now around 77,700. Many people ask: Is this a bull retracement, or is the bull market over?
Don't rush. As a veteran who has been cut countless times in the crypto circle, today I'll break down the three layers of logic behind this drop.
First layer: The most direct trigger — the Federal Reserve suddenly changed its stance
On the surface, it looks like the US military airstrike on Iraq's Al-Faw Peninsula this morning caused oil prices to soar to 90 dollars. But that's just a catalyst. The real core is Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Warsh clearly said inflation is "still too high," and if it doesn't fall fast enough, further rate hikes are not ruled out. The market exploded instantly — the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% directly to 56.9%, once nearing 60%. The two-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.32%.
When the word "rate hike" is back on the table, all risk assets must first kneel in respect. Bitcoin? It's just the one that kneeled the fastest. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Wang Duanniao is betting big on $OKB this time, could it really be about to make a killing? 👀
In August 2025, OKEx will burn about 65.26 million OKB tokens in one go and permanently cap the total supply at 21 million, directly mirroring Bitcoin's 21 million cap.
But what’s truly worth paying attention to is not just the "scarcity" factor.
OKB’s role is shifting from a simple platform token to becoming the core on-chain asset of the X Layer. Whether it’s on-chain transfers, DeFi, RWA, staking, or ecosystem project interactions, all could generate real demand for OKB.
Before, the focus was on how much the exchange would buy back after making profits; now, what matters more is whether X Layer actually has real users and capital inflows.
Next, keep a close eye on three variables:
1️⃣ Whether X Layer has projects that are truly up and running
2️⃣ Whether there is sustained real capital inflow
3️⃣ Whether the regulatory environment suddenly tightens
If the ecosystem really becomes active, the scarcity of 21 million tokens will further amplify the demand logic.
But if it’s just hype and no real on-chain usage, then no matter how scarce it is, it’s just "paper scarcity."
In the end, one sentence: don’t just look at the burn, look at real usage. 🔥"Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 36 Last Friday, August 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Wash clearly emphasized: Inflation remains too high, and the 2% inflation target will not change. His data is also quite crucial: US PCE year-on-year was about 3.7%, core inflation is also clearly above the 2% target, and Wash believes the current financial environment has not reached a restrictive level! Market expectations for a rate hike in September have clearly increased. The latest CME Fed data shows a probability of about 63%, which is one reason BTC quickly fell from around 81,000 to 77,000. Last Friday, Bitcoin ETFs ended a 9-day net inflow, turning into a net outflow of $201.9 million, which further fueled the decline. This week, special attention should be paid to future ETF capital movements! Jiang Feng was fortunate to ride the wave twice: the first time in issue 34 with short positions near BTC80800 and 81,400, and the third in the 35th trading diary near 79,300, both of which have now reached the first target near 77,000. ETH issue 34 has achieved the first target from shorts at 2,515~2,600 and the short positions near 2,485~2,535 in the 35th trading diary! However, this does not mean that both short positions were perfectly managed, which means the subsequent market will truly continue to decline. There are many uncertainties involved. Will ETF funds continue to flow out? The Federal Reserve doesEric Trump：现在推动Bitcoin上涨的主角，已经不是散户了 $BTC 的市场结构，可能真的变了。 Eric Trump 最新谈到BTC时说了一句很直接的话：“The tides have turned.” 他的意思是，过去Bitcoin很大程度由散户推动，但现在真正影响价格的力量，正在越来越多地转向机构。 一、从“散户牛市”，慢慢变成“机构牛市” Eric Trump认为，很多过去还在质疑Crypto的机构，这一年多已经明显改变态度。 ETF、企业持仓、专业资金和更清晰的监管环境，都让机构参与越来越深。 他自己也透露，之前大约在 5万多到6万美元出头的区间建立了Bitcoin仓位。 二、机构进场，对Bitcoin到底是好事还是坏事 好处很容易理解。 机构资金更大，持有周期通常也更长，Bitcoin的合法性和主流接受度都会提高。 但另一面也很有意思： Bitcoin最初强调的是脱离传统金融体系，现在最大的增量资金却越来越来自华尔街。 所以机构化越成功，Bitcoin也可能越来越像传统金融资产。 三、以后的Bitcoin牛市，可能和以前不一样 Eric Trump同时还是BiMusk said SpaceX's revenue might reach Morgan Stanley's forecast seven years early, and the market hasn't fully priced this in, which is quite interesting.
In the past, whenever Musk spoke, many people automatically discounted the vision. But now that SpaceX has reached this scale, the story is increasingly hard to sustain on imagination alone. Starlink, launches, government contracts, AI data centers—each segment can tell a big story, but each ultimately has to come down to cash flow.
I think the secondary market has become more realistic now: it can give SpaceX a high valuation, but it won't pay indefinitely for a "future that must happen." Especially when AI is stuffed into every growth model, investors start asking a rather sobering question: who is paying this revenue, and who keeps the profit?
The vision is still very captivating, but the books won't be moved by passion.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 $BTC should not be simply defined as a high-level consolidation after a sharp rise; currently, it is a differentiation window of intense long-short logic battles.
Price dipped early in the session, holding last Friday's low at 76800, lightly testing longs aiming for a breakout at 79500. This idea seems reasonable, but holding the previous low does not necessarily mean a bullish counterattack. There are many false supports within the consolidation range, and a small rebound can easily lure in longs.
We break down the three layers of the battle logic again:
🔴 Macro level: The Jackson Hole event was hawkish, raising expectations for a September rate hike. U.S. Treasuries and the dollar strengthened. This bearish factor is not a short-term one-time shock; subsequent data will repeatedly tug the market, suppressing upside space.
🟡 Institutional funds should not be judged only by impressive monthly data. The end of continuous ETF inflows and the first large net outflow are warning signals. Massive monthly inflows only represent the past; funds have begun to cash out and exit. You cannot predict future trends based on past capital dividends.
🟢 Geopolitical safe-haven support exists but is highly unstable. Once U.S.-Iran tensions ease, safe-haven buying will quickly withdraw, and this layer of Bitcoin support can disappear at any time; the correlation between gold and BTC is not permanently fixed.
In summary: Holding the low only represents a temporary short-term halt in the decline, not the start of a rebound. In high-level consolidation, supports can break at any time. When testing longs, strict stop-losses must be applied; do not blindly go long relying solely on support levels and past capital data.
Question: Is holding the low this time a short-term rebound opportunity or a trap before a second dip?
⚠️ For opinion sharing only, not investment advice
#BTC high-level long-short tug-of-war, gold correlation strengthens $BTCThe more I look at Broadcom, the more I feel it is the most easily underestimated company in this AI wave.
When people talk about AI, the first reactions are still Nvidia $NVDA, OpenAI $OPENAI, but the big companies are now spending money on more than just buying GPUs. The larger the model and the higher the inference volume, the greater the data transmission pressure inside data centers. The demand for custom AI chips is also rising, and these two areas happen to be Broadcom's strengths.
One comfortable aspect of Broadcom $AVGO is that it doesn't have to compete head-to-head with Nvidia for business. Big clients like Google and Meta want to make their own ASICs, and Broadcom can help. As AI clusters grow larger and larger, requiring faster switching chips and network connections, Broadcom can still make money. In other words, as big companies continue to increase CapEx, Broadcom is very likely to have a place.
Moreover, what I like about Broadcom is not just the AI story. It has strong semiconductor cash flow itself, and VMware complements it with software, so unlike some pure AI concept stocks that rely on imagination years from now to support valuation, Broadcom currently has real profits, cash flow, and AI orders being fulfilled.
Broadcom's concentration of major clients and AI expectations are risks, but if this round of AI infrastructure investment can continue for several more years, a company like Broadcom that benefits from both custom chips and AI networks while generating its own cash flow is one I am willing to hold for a longer time.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Not really into gossip, but judging from the situation between Sun Ge and Jing Tian, the trend has really changed. This matter is currently a hot headline on mainstream domestic media platforms and continues to ferment.
Who is Sun Ge? A big shot in the crypto circle, a gray market tycoon under border control. In the past, this kind of thing could never have fermented on mainstream domestic media platforms because the demographic of people interested in gossip is basically concentrated between the ages of about ten to forty. Most people's first reaction when seeing this content is "Who is Sun Yuchen?" and "What does he do to make tens of billions of dollars?" When this group learns that Sun Yuchen got rich quickly through the crypto circle, it will inevitably lead some of this gossip group to understand or even enter the crypto circle. Obviously, this is completely contrary to the previous suppression policies.
Not only that, recently I noticed that on Douyin, it was previously impossible to post crypto-related content, or if posted by chance, the views and likes were very few. But recently, the exposure of crypto-related content has increased exponentially, and I often see videos with thousands or even tens of thousands of likes.
Such changes must mean something we don't know is happening.
Or maybe on October 11, most of the existing funds in the circle were really cut off and fresh blood is needed?$BTC chart looks increasingly off?
Now BTC is stuck hovering around 77500, quietly dropping 1.6% in 24 hours. The hawkish risk was supposed to be priced in early, so why is it stuck sideways, neither up nor down?
Could it really be heading down one of these three paths?
Employment data falls below 100,000 coldly, the market directly bets that Walsh won’t dare to hike aggressively, the dollar and US Treasury yields turn down, and BTC directly surges to 82000-83000?
Data stuck between 100,000-150,000 lukewarm, the probability of a September rate hike is exactly split in half, BTC is trapped grinding back and forth between 78000 and 80000, wearing out both bulls and bears?
Employment data suddenly surprises strong, new jobs exceed 180,000 with wage growth, the probability of a rate hike soars above 70%, BTC turns and steps down to 76000-77000, will it probe even deeper?
Now the market assumes nearly 60% chance of a September hike. If this data weakens again, can Walsh’s previously firm "anti-inflation" stance really hold?
Before the non-farm payrolls release, BTC has been grinding high and volatile. Is this sideways movement just shaking out traders, with the real big move waiting for the data to land?
What do you think about this week’s non-farm payrolls? Will BTC surge above 80,000 or crash back to 75,000?
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $ETH #Meta stock rises after massive settlement, risk pricing reassessed
Meta has reached a massive settlement agreement on long-pending privacy and data lawsuits. After the announcement, the stock price rose instead of falling.
The market has shown with real money: the uncertainty boot has landed, which is far more important than paying a one-time financial cost.
This settlement has triggered a valuation reconstruction of Meta in the capital market:
Legal clouds cleared, releasing risk premium: Prolonged regulatory lawsuits have been a heavy shackle suppressing the valuation multiples of tech giants. The settlement allows institutions to reprice the stock purely based on business fundamentals.
Core advertising and AI algorithm moat solidified: Under the empowerment of the open-source Llama ecosystem, the advertising recommendation algorithm has greatly improved advertiser conversion rates. Strong free cash flow is sufficient to easily cover the massive settlement.
Metaverse losses narrowed and focus on computing power: While controlling hardware losses, management is fully betting on AI infrastructure. The commercial monetization path is clearer than ever.
After major legal risks are cleared, do you think Meta can leverage this AI advertising dividend to reclaim the lead among tech stocks?
$META
#Meta #USStocks #TechStocks #ArtificialIntelligence #BusinessInsightsFundamental Research Report $VIRTUAL / Virtuals Protocol (AI/Computing Power) $3.20
Essentially: Virtuals Protocol ($VIRTUAL) overall score 55/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token value capture is realized.
Fundamental breakdown: Virtuals Protocol (token $VIRTUAL), AI/computing power sector. Focuses on AI virtual influencers/Agent Creator. Comparable to FET, TAO. Traditional computing power rental giants are AWS, CoreWeave, charging by GPU hour; A100 monthly rent is $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high threshold. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding; suppliers don’t need centralized approval; idle GPUs become available supply. Customer unit price $50-$500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private/public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo wall are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Virtuals Protocol $3.00B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. FDV: Virtuals Protocol $4.20B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Annual revenue: Virtuals Protocol $2.00M, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Virtuals Protocol undisclosed, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Numbers based on public data snapshots; missing parts supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. In summary: fundamentals solid (score 55/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Continuous monitoring: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. If core financial indicators deviate over 30%, conclusions need reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitBitcoin falls below 79,000, storage chips rise against the market trend—what kind of change is the market pricing in?
$BTC fell below $79,000, with a nearly 4% drop intraday, and ETH followed suit. Market anxiety is spreading, ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive days, and the greed index has plummeted. However, amid a widespread "risk-off" atmosphere, the storage chip sector has surged unexpectedly: Western Digital rose nearly 2.5%, Micron and SK Hynix followed, and Nvidia bucked the trend with a 1.7% gain.
On the macro level, rate hike expectations hang like the sword of Damocles, with the probability of a September rate hike approaching 60%, and high interest rates continuing to suppress risk asset valuations. On the funding side, the previous continuous net inflows into ETFs have been broken, with institutions choosing to lock in profits amid uncertainty, putting short-term liquidity under pressure.
But the strength in storage reveals an underlying logic decoupled from the macro environment: the AI infrastructure race is pushing storage from a "cyclical commodity" to a "strategic material" narrative. Nvidia's Q2 storage procurement commitments surged 135% quarter-over-quarter, driven by the industry reality of HBM supply shortages and NAND prices bottoming out first.
The market is repricing two things: first, the liquidity premium under macro tightening; second, the value chain restructuring brought by breakthroughs in the "memory wall" in the AI era. As the computing power arms race enters deep waters, storage is no longer a simple supporting role but a strategic bottleneck determining the winner of the next technological generation. Short-term pain and long-term certainty are fiercely clashing right now. $BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 如果只看K线，最近的ETH其实有点让人纠结。 ETH在8月冲上$2,500之后出现明显回落，最近重新回到$2,400附近，$2,500已经连续成为短线最重要的压力区域。最新技术数据里，ETH的14日RSI仍然处于相对高位，说明前面的上涨动能还没有完全消失，但短线已经进入降温阶段。 正常情况下，价格涨这么多以后遇到阻力并不奇怪。 真正让我觉得有意思的是另一边： 资金并没有明显撤出ETH。 8月17日至28日，美国现货ETH ETF连续9个交易日净流入，累计流入约14.2亿美元，8月28日单日流入达到约2.26亿美元，是近10个月最强的一天。 所以现在出现了一个很有意思的结构： 价格在压力位横盘，机构资金却还在买。 这和单纯的“散户追高”完全不是一回事。 这也是我为什么没有因为ETH暂时站不上$2,500，就直接判断行情结束。 反而我更想看它下一次冲击$2,500的时候，会不会出现放量。 如果ETH能够重新站稳**$2,500**，下一步我会看**$2,600–2,650**，再往上就是前面市场留下的更大压力区。 但如果再次冲击$2,500失败，然后跌破**$2,400**，短线就要小心继It's the final circle, brothers, September 15th is a date that must be engraved in your mind.
Don't talk to me about CPI or a few basis points of rate cuts; those are just tactical fluctuations. The real strategic drama is whether the Senate will pass the CLARITY Act that day. 60 votes, one more is wasted, one less is in vain.
Note, this is not the final decision, but it is the critical hurdle that determines life or death. Once passed, the messy issues of "who regulates, how to regulate, and on what basis" in the US crypto market can hopefully be clarified; otherwise, it will continue to stumble blindly in the dark forest.
The significance of this goes far beyond one or two bullish candles on the K-line; it concerns whether the entire industry can take a step from being a "casino" to a "market." Rate cuts affect the water level, CLARITY determines the direction of the river.This week's two major core market themes: #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #BTC high-level volatility, enhanced linkage with gold
1️⃣ US-Iran geopolitical conflict
Reduced shipping through the strait, US airstrikes disturbing the market, escalating conflict will stimulate short-term safe-haven rallies in gold and BTC.
⚠️ Risk warning: Further escalation of tensions could trigger widespread panic, causing simultaneous sell-offs in stocks and crypto; rising oil prices will push inflation higher, limiting Fed rate cuts, posing medium- to long-term bearish risks to risk assets. Avoid chasing the geopolitical pulse rally.
2️⃣ Focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls + PMI, combined with the G20 meeting
🔹 Weak employment → rising rate cut expectations, favorable for gold and crypto; but oil price inflation may weaken the benefits, beware of a spike and subsequent pullback
🔹 Stronger-than-expected employment → delayed rate cuts, stronger USD, suppressing gold and crypto prices
At the G20, watch for Middle East reconciliation signals; risk-off sentiment will directly subside. $TRUMP It’s starting again, it’s starting again. This guy is really looking for a way out while setting fires.
Just moments ago, they were talking about reopening the Strait of Hormuz and arranging diplomatic personnel to return to the Middle East, and then the US military attacked Larak Island; Iran couldn’t stand it either and retaliated by striking US military bases, and another oil tanker near the strait was attacked.
They keep talking about negotiations at the table, but at the same time, they’re throwing matches next to the oil barrels. Who can understand this?
What’s even more absurd is the market situation. Both $CL and $BZ rose about 2.7%, with Brent crude oil climbing back near $90;
Logically, if risk aversion sentiment rises, gold and $BTC should also surge, but gold dropped to around 4425, and BTC was hammered down to about 76900 this morning.
The reason is quite realistic: the market is no longer trading on "war = risk aversion and price increase," but on whether rising oil prices will reignite inflation.
When crude oil rises, inflation expectations increase, giving Washington more confidence to stay tough; as long as the dollar and US Treasury yields keep rising, non-yielding gold takes the first hit, and BTC, which relies on liquidity, can’t escape either.
From now on, don’t just focus on who’s making harsh statements again. What really determines the market is whether oil tankers can still pass normally, whether insurance premiums have skyrocketed, and whether Iran’s actual exports have declined.
If it’s just a couple of shots fired, oil prices might give back the risk premium; but if the strait is truly blocked, crude oil becomes the main player, and BTC and gold will have to continue enduring the high interest rate pressure.
Shouting for negotiations on one hand, while continuing to fire on the other; the market calls for risk aversion on one hand, while selling gold for cash on the other. This market situation really plays people.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 What may be the most noteworthy thing in the crypto market recently is not just price, but the significant rotation of funds. On August 27, institutional funds were still actively flowing into mainstream crypto assets: 🟠 $BTC ETFs had a single-day net inflow of about $242 million🔵$ETH ETFs had a net inflow of about $226 million 🟣, $SOL ETFs attracted about $60.9 million. But by August 28, the situation suddenly changed. $BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $202 million, ending a streak of inflows that had been running for several days. Meanwhile, funds did not fully exit the crypto market 👇 🔵. $ETH ETFs still recorded about $102 million in net inflows🟣$SOL ETFs continued to attract about $17.3 ⚫ million, $XRP ETFs maintained about $18 million in net inflows. What does this indicate? 🤔 Perhaps funds are not fleeing crypto but gradually rotating from BTC to other large assets like ETH, SOL, and XRP. More notably, $BTC previously surged near $81,000 before retreating to around $77,000, with profit-taking pressure noticeably increasing. Meanwhile, market data shows that ETH ETFs have recently maintained strong institutional capital demand. 📊 Latest data worth watching: BTC ETF: Funds Cooling ETH ETF: Institutional Demand Remains Strong SOLTom Lee said that if ETH reaches $6000, BTC would have to hit $150,000.
This number is actually not hard to calculate.
It's just BTC's price × ETH/BTC exchange rate.
But the problem lies here.
His premise is that ETH/BTC can bounce back from the current 0.03 to 0.04.
If this premise doesn't hold, $6000 is just a mirage.
And if you look closely.
Wall Street is now less willing to hype Ethereum's ecosystem alone.
Things like the global computer, DeFi, NFT, ecosystem prosperity.
These stories aren't as easy to tell anymore.
So they switched tactics.
They don't talk about how great Ethereum itself is.
They directly package ETH as "BTC's high Beta."
What does that mean?
Buying ETH used to be a bet on Ethereum's own ecosystem.
Now buying ETH is more like betting:
If BTC doubles, can ETH follow and rise 1.5 times?
This is the story Wall Street prefers to tell now.
And this rhetoric is aimed at traditional finance and compliant funds.
Look at the recent compliant channels promoted by Wall Street.
Then look at the fund flows of ETH ETFs like BlackRock.
You'll find something quite interesting.
Institutions don't really care whether Ethereum has the next killer app.
What they care more about is:
Can this thing be included in the asset pool of compliant funds?
Can it allow money that can't directly buy BTC to be invested Recent fluctuations in commodities have triggered a pullback in the crypto market (including the Asian market, with the Nikkei evaporating about ¥24.4 trillion). Analysts point out that spot oil prices seem stable, but the underlying real supply and demand are extremely tight.
Current status:
Physical inventories have bottomed out (no inventory buffer), the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has dropped to about 290 million barrels (the lowest level since 1982), geopolitical and supply chains are fragile due to war, and the futures structure sends warning signals: both WTI and Brent crude oil show severe backwardation (near-term prices higher than long-term), indicating spot and near-term contracts are extremely sought after.
Here’s the key point: the analyst believes we can infer the macro transmission path: $BTC "gets cheaper first, then causes the dollar to depreciate."
Phase One: Short-term pain (current phase)
Energy costs push secondary inflation—rate cuts delayed / liquidity tightens—risk assets pull back—BTC priced in dollars declines.
Phase Two: Long-term major uptrend (long-term big trend)
High interest rates cause government debt interest to explode / economic pressure—central banks forced to restart QE / fiscal monetization—the dollar dilutes—BTC experiences a violent surge.
In summary, the analyst believes that under the dollar-denominated system, $BTC will first get cheaper in the short term;
but when governments ultimately can only solve problems by printing money and issuing debt, the dollar will depreciate significantly against BTC.🔥ETF is like getting an annual pass, staking is like locking a drawer, but the price still fails to swipe at the door
On August 31, $ETH hovered around $2410–2440, slightly down in 24 hours, with a 7-day pullback of about 2.4%; it previously rebounded from over 1900 to 2500–2566, now it’s like “institutions have their membership cards, but the price is still fumbling for the wallet at the gate.”
The capital side is actually quite decent: the US spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of $824 million in the week of August 24–28, the strongest week in nearly a year; among them, BlackRock’s ETHA had a weekly inflow of $567 million, with a historical total net of about $12.74 billion, and Fidelity’s FETH had a weekly inflow of $96.5 million. Zooming out to August 17–28, there was a continuous net inflow for 9–10 days totaling about $142–152 million, with ETHA alone taking about $1.02 billion, accounting for over 70%, and August 27’s single-day $225.8 million was the largest single day in nearly 10 months. To translate: it’s not retail traders shouting buy signals, but asset management accounts buying rhythmically.
The supply and demand side also helps: staking has locked 35–42 million tokens, accounting for about 35% of total supply, exchange balances dropped from 7.69 million in June to about 6.28 million, and during the August rebound about 275,000 flowed out again, so the circulating supply is increasingly "reluctant to sell." But the price just won’t decisively break above 2500—the Fed’s Jackson Hole was hawkish, and the September rate decision is pressuring risk assets, making 2500–2550 a technical resistance zone. RSI readings vary from 44 to 66, overall falling from overbought but not yet oversold.
$ETH 一、宏观与资金格局 1. 机构资金持续入场，波动率下降 BTC、ETH 现货 ETF 成为机构主要进场渠道，养老金、家族办公室逐步配置加密资产。市场不会再出现以前那种极端暴涨暴跌，BTC 越来越偏向大类配置资产。 值得注意：“数字黄金” 这套叙事，对美国普通新投资者吸引力已经垫底，大众更看重资产自主掌控、跨境流通的实际能力。 2. 全球监管走向清晰，合规变成生存门槛 美国、香港、中东陆续落地成文法规，稳定币、代币分类、托管有明确规则。 不合规、纯讲故事的项目生存空间持续收缩，未来大项目必须拿牌照才能活下去；没有合规路径的项目会加速出清。 3. 稳定币从币圈工具走向现实支付 稳定币不只是炒币中转工具，跨境结算、新兴市场支付场景会持续扩张，流通规模继续走高，也是监管重点盯的板块。 二、赛道分化，强者恒强，多数项目会被淘汰 1. BTC：加密市场的底层配置标的 减半叙事影响力弱化，美联储流动性、ETF 资金流入才是核心驱动。 不再是单纯投机币，对标黄金、美债做资产对冲；但是普通散户的炒作收益空间被机构摊薄。 2. ETH：现实资产代币化 RWA 的主要底层 质押收益、手续费销毁带来现金流；RThe entire market is moving downward; some are selling, some are buying — Midday Market Watch
$BTC BTC fell below 78,000, $ETH ETH lost 2,400, $SOL SOL dropped from 107 to below 101.
Checked this morning, all three brothers turned from green to red. BTC fell below $78,000, hitting an intraday low of 76,916. ETH dropped over 2.5%, SOL declined nearly 4.6%. This is the largest single-day drop since the flash crash on August 5.
The simultaneous decline of these three assets is not an issue with individual coins but reflects the entire market under pressure. After the probability of a September rate hike exceeded 60%, funds are clearly moving to safer assets.
The aftermath of Warsh’s stance has not yet dissipated.
After the Jackson Hole speech on Friday, the market spent the entire weekend digesting it. Last Wednesday, BTC was still above 81,000; today it’s around 77,800 — a drop of over 4,000 dollars in three days.
CME data shows the September rate hike probability hovering around 60%, the US dollar index is strengthening, gold is under pressure simultaneously, and BTC’s narrative as “digital gold” is being tested by the market. Warsh’s hawkish stance is repricing all assets.
Some are selling, some are buying.
The derivatives market is still deleveraging, but ETFs overall continue to see net inflows. From Wednesday to Friday, ETFs had a combined net inflow of about $233 million, indicating that funds are absorbing the decline.
Now all three assets have fallen to critical levels:
BTC is near 77,000. If it doesn’t hold, the next defense line is between 75,000-76,000. ETH is near 2,400; breaking below could lead to 2,300. SOL is near 101; 100 is a key psychological and round-number support.
Current decision reference:
The market is digesting rate hike expectations; the direction is not yet clear. Don’t rush to bottom-fish, nor panic sell. Prepare for both scenarios: if BTC falls below 76,500, consider reducing positions to hedge; if it rebounds and recovers 79,000, it indicates market repair and you can reassess direction. Stay on the sidelines at the middle ground, no adding or heavy positions.
Brothers, did you get swept in this wave? Let’s discuss in the comments.👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Brothers, $SNDK has returned to a critical battleground zone
Just checked the data, SNDK closed at $1484.98 on Thursday, and is currently hovering around $1460 in after-hours trading. From the high of $1828 on August 18, it has retraced over 20% in two weeks.
The recent decline is mainly due to two reasons: first, profit-taking after a surge of over 500% in 2026; second, despite Q4 revenue of 8.97 billion and a 437% year-over-year increase in data center business, the market still expects more aggressive forward guidance, and overly high expectations have pressured the stock price after the earnings report.
Technically, the $1450-$1470 range is a short-term key support zone, with $1400-$1420 as a stronger defense level. Breaking below this may test $1300-$1350. Resistance is at $1550-$1575, and only by reclaiming $1650-$1680 can a short-term bottom be confirmed.
The fundamental logic remains unchanged. The company has signed long-term contracts worth at least $93.9 billion, covering about 50% of capacity for fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds for fiscal 2028. On August 27, it jointly announced with Kioxia an investment of over $31 billion in Japan before 2032 to expand production of high-end NAND chips for AI data centers. JPMorgan has set a target price of $2250, with analysts' average target around $2126, implying about 40% upside from the current price.
The current position is to wait and watch, considering entry opportunities only after stabilization in the $1435-$1450 range is confirmed, with strict stop-loss.
#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 The recent trend of gold and Bitcoin has shown a rare positive correlation. This synchronicity does not reflect a high degree of market sentiment alignment but rather the convergence of two asset classes under macroeconomic logic.
The core driving force is the weakening of the US dollar credit system, which leads both traditional safe-haven assets and emerging digital gold to shift their pricing anchors toward "de-dollarization." However, this does not mean their risk-return profiles are becoming similar.
Currently, both assets face technical bottlenecks. The stagnation of gold near key round-number levels mainly reflects valuation adjustment pressure caused by fluctuations in real interest rates, while Bitcoin's hesitation at critical resistance zones is compounded by deleveraging effects on high-risk assets amid expectations of liquidity contraction. Although short-term profit-taking demand is released simultaneously, the underlying logic for handling the pullback is fundamentally different.
The adjustment in gold prices is a typical upward consolidation, supported by a solid base of central bank gold purchases and physical demand. Bitcoin, on the other hand, must confront valuation pressure from marginal tightening of macro liquidity, with its volatility elasticity further amplified during shifts in risk appetite.
From this perspective, the essence of the short-term synchronized pullback is the market digesting overly crowded long positions, not a reversal of long-term logic. If the US dollar credit issue intensifies again, both still have the potential for a secondary rally, but at that time, gold's resilience will be significantly stronger than Bitcoin's.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
NVIDIA has proven that the money spent on "buying chips" is real. This week, it's the second tier's turn to prove itself—whether AI money can flow from chips to servers, networks, and enterprise software.
Earnings relay schedule:
▪️ 9/1 (Eastern US) Dell: Can orders for servers and network equipment continue to rise?
▪️ 9/2 Broadcom + Snowflake: Custom AI chips + cloud data subscription revenue
On the hardware side, watch how orders turn into profits and cash flow; on the software side, see if cloud demand can form stable subscriptions. Demand on NVIDIA's end has already been validated; now the question is diffusion:
Successful diffusion → AI benefits no longer belong only to chips, tech stock valuations broaden
Stuck at chips → Market narrows further, second tier never gets a premium
The disagreement isn't about whether AI demand is real, but whether the money can reach the second tier.
Do you bet on diffusion or contraction? #BTC high-level oscillation, stronger linkage with gold Family, BTC is now oscillating around 78000. After 9 consecutive days of ETF inflows, it finally stopped. On August 28, it turned into a net outflow, and institutional buying has temporarily paused. Data from CryptoQuant shows retail activity has surged to a nearly two-year high. In the latter half of this rally, the baton has passed from institutions to retail investors.
What’s more noteworthy is that BTC has recently become clearly more correlated with gold, rather than with Nasdaq. Previously, BTC was like a junior to tech stocks; now it’s starting to follow gold’s path—US dollar credit easing, expanding fiscal deficits, and capital searching for safe havens beyond sovereign assets. BTC is gradually transforming from a “high-beta tech asset” into “digital gold.”
But the question is whether retail investors can hold this market after ETF inflows stop. If buying momentum can’t keep up, the duration of high-level oscillation may extend. The BTC-gold linkage could be a structural change in asset allocation or just a short-term phase driven by market conditions; we’ll have to see how the data unfolds in the coming weeks.
Wait for employment data and Wash’s speech before making further judgments. Wishing everyone smooth trading this week. $BTC $ETH $SOL 🔥 ETF funds are currently supporting BTC & ETH, but what happens if the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity?
At present, the market performance of $BTC and $ETH is still clearly supported by institutional funds and ETF demand.
📊 Recently, the US spot BTC ETF recorded inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative inflow exceeding $3 billion, but on August 28, it suddenly turned to a net outflow of about $202 million, reminding the market that institutional funds do not always flow in one direction.
What deserves more attention is the macro environment.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh recently sent a hawkish signal, and market expectations for a rate hike in September have clearly heated up, affecting both the dollar and US Treasury yields simultaneously.
👀 Here comes the real question:
If ETF buying cools down in the future + interest rate expectations continue to rise + global liquidity tightens, how long can the current upward momentum of BTC and ETH be sustained?
The speed at which institutional funds exit the market is often faster than ordinary investors adjusting their positions.
So going forward, instead of just focusing on the price, it’s better to pay close attention to:
➡️ Daily ETF fund flows
➡️ Federal Reserve interest rate signals
➡️ Dollar and US Treasury yields
➡️ Whether BTC / ETH can maintain key support levels
ETF fund inflows can drive the market, but sustained rallies ultimately require broader market demand to confirm. Elon Musk is starting to make "electricity" again, and 100GW is just the first step?
This time, what I think is most worth watching is actually not the 100GW solar power.
It's that easily overlooked sentence: SpaceX is preparing to tackle the issues of gas turbine blades and blade casting themselves, aiming to advance the deployment time of gas turbines by up to 18 months.
What does this mean#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Wall Street's attention is being drawn by a long-term forecast about the space economy. Morgan Stanley set a $300 target price for SpaceX in its latest research and estimated its annual revenue could reach $3.5 trillion by 2040. Musk immediately responded publicly, saying this timeline is too conservative and firmly believes that achieving the same revenue scale by 2033 would compress the entire cycle by seven years. ✨ This set of figures sparked heated discussion because they carry extremely high technical expectations: Starship's fully reusable capability, the continuous expansion of the Starlink network, and the commercialization of orbital AI computing power. With the launch of new launch bases costing tens of billions, launch costs are expected to drop sharply, making the narrative of space internet and space data centers more convincing. Some Wall Street institutions even believe that the market has not yet fully priced in SpaceX's AI business, and strong tech growth sentiment will indirectly increase risk appetite, including crypto assets. But it is important to clarify that $3.5 trillion is a long-term annual revenue target, not a company market cap; behind it lies growth potential hundreds of times over current revenue. Whether in 2040 or 2033, this is based on the strong assumption of smooth technological iteration. If Starship's R&D pace is delayed or orbital computing power commercialization falls short of expectations, the entire growth logic will be severely tested. From market reactions, the stock price did not explode after the news was announced, indicating that capital did not blindly accept this aggressive expectation. Regarding crypto$HYPE Smart money has seen a new round of layered positioning. One long-term profit source holds about 320k USD, with a net purchase of about 80k USD in the past 24 hours, and HYPE has realized a profit of about 51k USD over 30 days; Another low drawdown source holds about 60k USD, completed 53 rounds of back-and-forth in 30 days, with a win rate of about 98%. But the largest long position of about 2.0 million USD comes from a source with about 10.8x leverage, a 30-day drawdown of about 14.4%, and unfinished HYPE round-trip trades; Another long position of about 217k USD is also close to the liquidation price. The direction is bullish, but the quality of the source is clearly stratified, so not all nominal positions should be treated equally.#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
July nonfarm payrolls -23,000, May and June revised down by 103,000 — employment is cooling, yet the market is betting on a September rate hike. One of these has to be wrong.
This week features a trio of releases: JOLTS, ADP, and August nonfarm payrolls. The labor market is central to September policy pricing.
▪️ July nonfarm payrolls -23,000, an unexpected decrease
▪️ May-June cumulative revisions down by 103,000, four times the July decrease — the cooling started early
▪️ Probability of a September rate hike rose from 35% to nearly 60% (after Waller's speech)
Waller's stance is firm: inflation remains above 2%, policy will continue to suppress prices.
But the market is not Waller. The disagreement isn't about whether inflation is high, but whether employment has cooled off completely:
Employment collapses → 60% chance of a policy reversal, gold and silver coins breathe a sigh of relief
Employment holds up → September rate hike is a done deal
This week's data will decide the switch.
Are you betting on the data collapsing, or on Waller winning? #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
After the Nvidia market hype, Broadcom and Dell have taken over to deliver answers for the AI industry chain. The market is beginning to reassess the true quality of AI capital expenditures, indirectly affecting risk asset sentiment.
Broadcom focuses on custom AI chips and high-speed networking, while Dell represents AI server hardware endpoints. Both are core suppliers for cloud giants' computing power expansion. Order data looks good, but the market no longer only watches revenue growth; the focus is on gross margin and the sustainability of customer capital expenditures.
Two scenarios:
1. Earnings far exceed expectations, with upward revisions to future guidance: this validates the continuation of computing power capital expenditure prosperity, strengthens tech risk assets, and BTC will simultaneously receive a sentiment boost.
2. Revenue is acceptable, but guidance is conservative and gross margin is under pressure: this will reinforce market concerns, slow down cloud providers' expansion pace, pressure the AI sector, and lead to a BTC pullback.
Worth noting, Dell holds a large backlog of AI server orders, so it is important to distinguish between orders and actual shipment conversion; Broadcom has previously had decent performance but guidance below expectations triggered a sector-wide sell-off.
In practice, do not bet on earnings results prematurely. Earnings season volatility will be amplified; wait for data to land before deciding direction, and prioritize a wait-and-see approach in the short term.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
NVIDIA just reported earnings, and now Broadcom and Dell are up this week. Where exactly is this AI drama headed? Pharaoh says the spotlight is shifting from GPUs to two sides—custom chips on one side and AI servers on the other.
Broadcom CEO Hock Tan set an ambitious target—AI semiconductor revenue exceeding $100 billion by 2027, with Q3 AI chip guidance at $16 billion, a year-over-year surge of over 200%. They have long-term contracts signed with Google, Meta, and OpenAI, with visibility through 2028. Sounds impressive, but the market isn’t so easily fooled; Broadcom’s stock has already pulled back 25% from its peak, and Q3 guidance still falls short of Wall Street’s $16.36 billion expectation.
Dell’s servers are selling like crazy, with Q2 revenue hitting $29.78 billion, beating expectations, and raising the full-year AI server shipment guidance from $15 billion to $20 billion. They also hold a record backlog of $51.3 billion. However, despite high AI server sales, profit margins are being squeezed. The market is watching whether they can make more profit, not just sell more.
NVIDIA’s earnings have already told the market that AI demand hasn’t cooled off. Now it’s Broadcom and Dell’s turn to prove whether this chain can keep turning. On September 2, with the Fed’s rate hike looming, the market will be watching both the numbers and Powell’s words closely.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won’t lose its way! $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and vessel passage requires Iran's permission; the temporary channel arrangement agreed between Iran and Iraq has not yet been implemented.
The US continues to impose oil and financial sanctions on Iran. Even if the channel is opened, obstacles remain in oil sales, insurance, and fund settlements. The US is promoting oil cooperation with Venezuela, but infrastructure shortcomings are evident, and the supply gap cannot be filled in the short term.
📊 Market: Brent +6.4%, WTI +5.7%, geopolitical premiums push oil prices higher, inflation concerns rise, suppressing risk assets.
💡 Dual impact on BTC:
✅ Rising oil prices intensify inflation stickiness → reinforcing high interest rate expectations, suppressing coin price in the short term
✅ Ongoing geopolitical conflicts erode fiat currency credibility, strengthening BTC's non-sovereign narrative
Key focus on the $77,000 long-short watershed; the market depends on whether inflation pressure or fiat currency credit erosion is prioritized in trading. $BTC In the past, $SOL was simply categorized as a "public chain coin," with its valuation logic centered around user numbers and Gas fees.
However, the changes that occurred in 2026 have completely invalidated this valuation framework.
The most fundamental shift happened on the asset side. The large-scale influx of stablecoins, the tokenization of U.S. stocks moving from concept to real transactions worth tens of billions of dollars, and the RWA ecosystem doubling to $4 billion in less than eight months—Solana is no longer just a place for trading meme coins but is becoming the preferred settlement layer for traditional financial assets on-chain.
Continuous issuance by Circle, and actual deployments by institutions like BlackRock and JPMorgan, all point to the same fact: Wall Street is using Solana as the infrastructure for on-chain capital markets.
Structural changes are also happening on the supply side. The passing of the inflation reduction proposal marks the beginning of the market dismantling the stereotype of SOL as a "continuously inflationary old coin."
On the technical front, the open-sourcing and tested performance of Firedancer have taken Solana from "high performance" to "high resilience." Client diversity eliminates single points of failure, providing truly reliable infrastructure for institutional-grade applications.
Stablecoins provide liquidity, RWA and tokenized stocks provide assets, institutional funds provide demand, technical upgrades provide capacity, and economic model optimization improves supply and demand—the resonance of these six trends is pushing Solana into an unprecedented ecological niche.
It is no longer just a public chain. It is the prototype of on-chain Wall Street.$BTC Bitcoin is currently in a high-level consolidation phase following a sharp rise
In the morning session, it was just right to see a downturn, but it didn't break past last Friday's low near 76,800
Entering a light position and testing the waters with a long position; in the short term, let's first see if it can break through around 79,500
On the news side
📰 News Side: A three-way power struggle
🔴 Macroeconomic bearish factors suppressed the situation
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, reiterating that the 2% inflation target is "non-negotiable," raising market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September to 57%-60%. This pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, suppressing risk assets.
🟡 Institutional funding is becoming more diverse
After nine consecutive days of net inflows, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million on August 28. However, the monthly net inflow for August still exceeded $3.1 billion, setting a new monthly high for 2026, with daily outflows remaining moderate relative to the cumulative scale.
🟢 Geo-risk avoidance provides support
The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have led some safe-haven funds to shift from traditional markets to crypto assets. Gold surged about 10% in August, and Bitcoin has seen allocation demand in parallel.
The above personal views are for reference only.
#BTC高位多空拉锯, the gold linkage is strengthened The $160 billion equity valuation gains in the tech giants' quarterly reports have pushed market risk appetite to a high level, but the disconnect between non-operating unrealized gains and cash flow is becoming a core risk point.
Alphabet's $97.9 billion in other income and Amazon's $53.4 billion included directly boosted the tech sector's reported net profit performance. This has changed the assessment of the giants' actual earnings resilience, with the market currently equating paper valuation growth to business cash flow expansion.
From the risk transmission mechanism perspective, the driving order is first the revaluation risk brought by financing valuations of unlisted unicorns, followed by institutional investors' concentration position adjustments in tech stocks. If macro inflation expectations fluctuate causing capital liquidity tightening, valuation suppression in the primary market will quickly translate into divestment pressure in the secondary market.
The upside scenario is that unicorns complete a new round of higher valuation financing, driving the giants' unrealized gains to continue expanding. The trigger condition is that long positions continue to concentrate on the AI mainline; the observation variable is the support of US Treasury yield changes on risk appetite; the invalidation signal is institutional net long positions starting to exit.
The downside scenario is that primary market financing freezes or valuations shrink, and the giants will need to recognize fair value change losses next quarter. The trigger condition is that high inflation pressure leads to rising funding costs; the observation variable is the discount rate of unicorn secondary distribution; the invalidation signal is the giants' operating cash flow exceeding expectations to hedge paper losses.
The condition for judging the entire trading logic failure lies in whether the core giants can rely on actual operating profits from chip sales and cloud services to cover potential equity valuation drawdowns.
In the next 7 days, key observations will focus on the secondary market's pricing exclusion of tech giants' non-operating income and the transmission of US Treasury yield changes to primary market valuation sensitivity.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK🔥🔥🔥 "BTC rose 25% in August, Saylor shouted 'We’re Back,' why didn’t I chase?"
Just opened OKX Planet to check the market, BTC is now at 77,500, 24h -0.87%.
BTC rose about 25% throughout August, marking the strongest August since 2017. Strategy’s holdings saw an unrealized profit of $2.8 billion, Saylor posted "We’re Back," and the market started speculating he’s going to buy again.
But I didn’t chase.
There are three reasons:
1. BTC ETFs had a net outflow of $202 million on August 28, breaking a 9-day streak of net inflows; ETH ETFs, on the other hand, attracted inflows for 10 consecutive days, as if funds are switching vehicles.
2. The macro environment isn’t stable. The yen fell back to 160, Japan intervened with $97 billion in a month but couldn’t stop it; after Warsh’s hawkish remarks, the probability of a rate hike in September remains uncertain.
3. BTC dropped from 81,200, and the support around 77,000 hasn’t been firmly held, so chasing highs isn’t cost-effective.
I’m currently out of position watching the show, waiting for the CPI and non-farm payroll data in the first week of September before making a move. Not guessing the top, nor FOMO.
Personal view: most likely a wide sideways consolidation, hard to see a strong one-sided trend $BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Bitcoin surged from about $63,000 in mid-month to above $81,000, but did not continue a one-sided rally; instead, it has been oscillating at a high level between $77,000 and $80,000. The cumulative increase in August is still close to 30%, clearly outperforming gold, the Nasdaq, and the S&P, but the pullback after pushing past $80,000 indicates that this rally has shifted from "short squeeze acceleration" to "profit digestion and waiting for macro validation." What’s more worth watching is not tWhen the crypto market heats up, the vast majority of people still prefer to trade coins rather than US stock targets.
Previously, SanDisk $SNDK contract trading volume even surpassed ETH at its peak, second only to BTC; Micron $MU also often ranked in the top five for contract turnover. But now that the crypto market is rising, only SK Hynix $SKHYNIX remains in the top ten contract trading volumes. Although the US stock market being closed on weekends is a factor, the previous trading volume did not decline this significantly.
Bitcoin has never been just a simple coin speculation; its core is as a barometer of market liquidity. Its price movements completely follow the "liquidity tightness + market main theme," and this pattern is very clear.
When the market has a clear main theme (such as AI, new energy), global funds follow that theme; when the market starts to diverge, lacks a main theme, and funds are relatively abundant, Bitcoin becomes the optimal reservoir.
The essence of exchanges listing US stock targets is to ensure that regardless of the market phase, the platform can maintain trading volume and fees, thus guaranteeing steady income. Therefore, the listing of US stocks impacts altcoins the most, while the effect on Bitcoin and mainstream coins is limited, and may even enlarge the mainstream coin market by bringing in new incremental users. But the vast majority of altcoins have no long-term value; short-term trading is sufficient.
#OKX星球话题来啦
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温
US-Iran fire again, oil rises and crypto shakes! How to trade this geopolitical black swan?
8.30 US military bombed Iran's Larak Island → 8.31 early morning Iran fired missiles at US military base, weekend commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 5 per day (130+ before the conflict), WTI surged to 85.5, Brent broke 90.5, domestic crude main contract soared over 7%.
The logic is simple:
Can't ship out ≠ can't produce, but the market first trades the "supply cut premium." The strait controls about 1/5 of global seaborne oil; as long as the navigation narrative continues, inflation expectations won't return → Fed rate cuts delayed → risk asset valuations pressured. BTC short-term follows US stock futures down, but its "digital gold" attribute attracts safe-haven funds during Middle East turmoil, a typical high-volatility divergent market.
Crypto trading tips:
• Don't chase oil-related concept coins, mostly one-day news-driven plays
• Reduce BTC positions on breakdowns, wait for stabilization to buy back
• Altcoins reduce leverage, black swan intraday spikes cause the worst liquidations
• If you want to speculate, wait for oil prices to stabilize + US stock futures to recover before considering right-side entries
Geopolitics decides the open, liquidity decides the close. The main line this week: watch the number of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, more accurate than watching candlesticks. The superficial reason for this morning's sharp drop is that the US military took military action against Iran for the first time in a month, causing some capital outflow. But fortunately, the inflow into gold was not much, so the actual impact was not that significant.
In fact, for Trump now, his current midterm election approval rating is at a historic low. The American public is very resistant to US military actions, especially the older generation who experienced the Iraq War in the 2000s. They know that if the situation escalates to a hot war, it will require troop deployment and there will be casualties, which the US would also fear.
So Trump has only two ways to win the midterm elections: one is to quickly subdue Iran without direct involvement, which is basically impossible due to geographical reasons, as the US military cannot personally intervene. The other is to collapse Iran's economy through economic sanctions. But honestly, Iran is aware of Trump's pain points, so negotiations rarely make progress. They have also become smart, targeting US military bases to cause casualties and collapse domestic US public opinion first. At least before the midterm elections, the market situation is unlikely to be favorable!
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens
The most interesting aspect of BTC right now is not the price, but the market expectations.
After BTC quickly rebounded from a phase low to around $78,000, the market started to hear a lot of familiar voices again:
It's rising too fast.
There will be a correction here.
$80,000 is an insurmountable barrier.
The bull market is over.
But the real danger in the market often isn't when everyone is bearish, but when everyone believes they have already figured it out.
On August 25, BTC once again broke through $80,000, with an August increase reaching 28% at one point. The driving factors behind this include a weakening dollar, changes in U.S. fiscal policy, and the market's repricing of "currency depreciation trades."
So this rally has a very special characteristic:
BTC's rise no longer fully depends on crypto community sentiment but begins to have deeper connections with the dollar, government bonds, liquidity, and macro policies.
This means that in the future, a big BTC surge may not necessarily require altcoins to go crazy first.
There might even be a new trend:
BTC moves on its own trend, and altcoins only realize the rally later.
Therefore, what should really be watched is not how much BTC has risen today, but whether capital continues to treat BTC as a long-term asset allocation.#US-Iran military confrontation escalates, crude oil supply risk heats up
The leader has something to say
The US military attacked Iran's Larak Island military facilities, Iran retaliated against the US base in Jordan, and oil tankers near Hormuz were attacked. Brent crude returned to $90.
The negotiation channel has not yet opened, but military conflict has escalated first. The US is simultaneously advancing sanctions and military strikes, while Iran uses the strait as a bargaining chip. Oil prices rise above 90, inflation expectations heat up, US Treasury yields rise, which is bearish for risk assets. $BTC $ETH $SOL
BTC is around 77,000, continuing to hold short positions on ZEC. If this oil price variable continues to ferment, the direction will tend to be bearish. But don't chase at this position, wait until the market truly digests it.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, stop losses must be set on positions, good luck.#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance put to the test
Wash just spoke very strongly at Jackson Hole, and this week's US employment data will put it to the test. This week, from JOLTS, ADP, initial jobless claims to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, employment data is almost fully scheduled. The market currently expects about 50,000 new nonfarm jobs in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. July's nonfarm payrolls even decreased by 23,000, and the average monthly job additions over the past three months have dropped to about 20,000. $BTC
This makes the Federal Reserve meeting in September very interesting. Last week, Wash clearly stated that the US labor market is still "broadly consistent with full employment," and what really worries him is inflation. The PCE year-on-year is still 3.7%, and he even said that if inflation does not clearly and quickly fall back to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do."
The market understood this. After the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September has risen from about 35% to nearly 60%.
But the question is, what if this week's employment data continues to weaken significantly?
If nonfarm payrolls are significantly higher than expected and the unemployment rate remains stable, Wash's hawkish logic is basically confirmed, and expectations for a September rate hike may continue to rise, which is bearish for BTC and high-valuation tech stocks.
But if nonfarm payrolls again approach zero or even turn negative, and the unemployment rate starts to rise, the Fed will no longer be facing just "3.7% inflation," but a real conflict between its dual mandates will begin.
So the important thing this week is to see if the market can force Wash to answer one question: When high inflation meets weak employment, which one will he save first? #BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
Recently, BTC has been repeatedly tugging at high levels, with a very obvious market change: the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has significantly increased, with more frequent simultaneous rises and falls.
The underlying logic is that both share the same set of macro drivers: real interest rates and US dollar credit. Institutional funds regard BTC as digital gold, used to hedge US Treasury and fiscal risks. When US Treasury yields decline, gold and BTC strengthen simultaneously; when yields rebound, both come under pressure, and the inflow and outflow rhythm of spot ETFs also begins to align.
However, it is important to distinguish their attribute differences: gold is a traditional safe-haven asset; BTC is a high-beta asset, and during risk events, Bitcoin's pullback magnitude will be much greater than gold's, so BTC cannot be fully regarded as a safe-haven tool.
Currently, the market is fiercely contested between bulls and bears.
✅ Bullish: gold is holding support at high levels, ETF funds continue to flow in, and the fiat currency hedging narrative remains;
⚠️ Bearish: Jackson Hole keeps the possibility of rate hikes, high-level leverage accumulation, and a rapid pullback could occur at any time.
In practice, do not chase highs. In linked markets, focus on US Treasury yield data, wait for clear direction before acting, and avoid heavy positions betting on one side prematurely. $SKHYNIX Hynix 1185, this drop is quite harsh. Saw some interesting data over the weekend — Hynix's customer inventory turnover days dropped from 45 to 38, and AI server shipments are still rising. The storage cycle remains, but prices fell first. SAR is pressing at 1237, EMA21 and EMA55 are stuck around 1216, all broken down. RSI6=34, J value 28, short-term is indeed weak. But HBM3E prices are still rising, and major customer orders are booked through next year. In this situation, either the ma