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#就业数据密集公布, Warsh's policy stance is being tested—a storm is coming! This week's U.S. employment data will determine the short-term fate 🔥 of BTC and US stocks. Jackson Hole's speech has already set the tone for hawkish sentiment in the market. Wash has clearly prioritized anti-inflation measures, with the probability of a rate hike in September soaring to nearly 60%. U.S. Treasury yields have surged, and BTC and gold have already come under pressure. This week, JOLTS job openings, ADP small nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls are bombarding. Labor data will set the next global asset pricing switch, and the market will move completely differently from the expected data. Core background: July's nonfarm payrolls have already signaled a cold spell, with unexpectedly reduced employment. Data from the previous two months was sharply revised downward, indicating signs of cooling hiring demand. But Wash's approach is not convinced, bluntly stating that financial conditions are still insufficient and inflation is still far from the 2% target, so further tightening is not ruled out. This week's employment report is meant to verify whether the economy is truly cooling or just a short-term illusion, directly deciding whether Washe will implement a rate hike in September. Three data scenarios to understand how BTC & US stocks will move. Scenario 1: Employment data far exceeds expectations (employment is booming). ✅ Logic: The economy is too resilient, wages remain high, and inflation is hard to bring down. The probability of a rate hike in September is further increasing, and US Treasury yields and the dollar continue to surge. - US stocks: "Good news is bad news." High-valuation AI tech stocks are the first to bear the pressure, as rising financing costs suppress valuations, making the market prone to pullbacks; Strong economic benefits are likely to lead to rate hikesMissile surge drives oil prices? US-Iran mutual strikes ignite the oil market!
When missiles fire, retail investors rush in; whales quietly count short positions' casualties preparing to exit.
US-Iran mutual strikes push oil prices to 86, but don’t get carried away! Market forecasts show: Iran’s full airspace blockade probability is only 26%, US invasion just 16%—the market thinks this conflict won’t escalate much.
Looking at the funds: $CL at 85.76, overbought indicator soaring to 82, 30-day net outflow of $110 million, big money is pulling while pushing. Smart money longs have an average cost of 79, currently floating profit is only 490,000, few chasing highs; shorts are squeezed, averaging 84.2 losing 5.14 million. Liquidation charts show 86.2-87.4 is a minefield of shorts about to explode, another dollar up and shorts will bleed heavily. $BZ is the same, shorts losing even worse.
Technicals are both overbought, but volume has shrunk—classic pump and dump.
Dasheng’s trading advice: aggressive fans enter long positions at current price, conservative fans enter short positions near 87.5/93. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 ⚠️Only market review, not investment advice
SNDK closed at $1484.98 on Thursday, then retreated to fluctuate around 1460 after hours. Since the high of $1828 on August 18, the pullback in just two weeks has exceeded 20%.
This round of correction mainly comes from two aspects: first, a more than 500% increase within 2026, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking, leading to concentrated sell-offs; second, although the Q4 report showed $8.97 billion in revenue and data center business surged 437% year-over-year, the market's future growth expectations were too high, and the forward guidance failed to meet aggressive expectations, causing funds to cash out after the earnings release.
Technically, the short-term focus is on the 1450-1470 support range; 1400-1420 is a stronger defense line, and if it breaks down effectively, the lower target will be 1300-1350. The resistance above is at 1550-1575, and only by stabilizing again at 1650-1680 can the short-term bottom pattern be confirmed.
The long-term fundamentals have not changed: the company holds at least $93.9 billion in long-term orders, covering about 50% of capacity for fiscal 2027 and two-thirds for fiscal 2028. On August 27, it announced a partnership with Kioxia, planning to invest over $31 billion in Japan by 2032 to expand production of high-end NAND chips for AI data centers. On the institutional side, JPMorgan gave a target price of $2250, with analysts' consensus average target around $2126, indicating about 40% upside compared to the current price.
Operationally, it is currently recommended to remain on the sidelines, waiting for stabilization signals in the 1435-1450 range before considering entry opportunities, and be sure to implement strict stop-loss.
Finally, wishing everyone daily profits and great success! $BTC $ETH $SNDK A weekly inflow of $3.2 billion, $BTC still hasn't broken through the resistance zone.
Data from Bank of America's Global Investment Strategy Department shows that last week, crypto funds had a net inflow of $3.2 billion, marking the largest single-week record since October 2025.
Combined with the recent strong inflows into US spot ETFs, the market rebound is no longer just driven by short squeeze liquidations; traditional capital is increasing its allocation to crypto assets again.
The significance of this capital lies more in the change of its nature.
Contract funds come and go quickly, causing sharp rises and falls; fund and ETF purchases usually hold longer, directly improving the market's spot absorption capacity.
On-chain signals show that BTC inside exchanges continues to decrease, and wallets of various sizes are increasing holdings, indicating that some chips are shifting from short-term sellers to medium- and long-term holders.
The rebound previously driven by liquidations is beginning to be supported by real buying.
However, $BTC still faces a dense supply zone between $80,000 and $85,000, where previous trapped positions, profit-taking, and options positions are concentrated.
If funds keep flowing in but the price cannot break through, it indicates that the selling pressure above is heavier than expected.
How far this round can go still needs to be continuously observed:
- Whether fund inflows can be sustained
- Whether $BTC can hold above the resistance zone after volume expansion.
The former determines if there is follow-up capital in the market; the latter determines whether the new funds are absorbing positions or completing chip turnover.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh straightforwardly says, another textbook case of "getting something for nothing" has played out, but this time the victim lost 75 million USD, and the attacker only took 20 minutes.
On August 30, Tectonic, the largest lending protocol in the Cronos ecosystem, suffered a precise price manipulation attack. The method was old-school but effective: within 20 minutes, the price of TONIC was pumped about 100 times, then these inflated tokens were used as collateral to borrow hard currencies like USDC, USDT, WETH from the liquidity pool.
PeckShield estimates the loss at about 74 million USD. It's exactly the same as the 2022 Mango Markets incident—low liquidity tokens + oracle manipulation + lending protocol, the three-pronged attack.
Cronos reacted quickly.
Validators froze block production on the entire chain within minutes. The attacker only managed to bridge about 6 million USD to Ethereum, while the remaining 60 to 68 million USD was trapped on the now halted chain.
This is not the first time, nor will it be the last. Just last week, Moonwell was hit for 8.7 million USD with almost the same method. Pharaoh can only say, no matter how loudly DeFi shouts its "decentralization" slogan, when real trouble happens, the last line of defense is still "pulling the plug". $BTC $ETH $SOL #Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块 The most worth-watching aspect of the crypto market right now isn't whether BTC can still rise, but that capital is beginning to diverge.
$BTC surged from the August low to above $81,000, and now it's back near $77,000. What's more interesting is that on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF ended a 9-day streak of net inflows, with a single-day outflow of about $200 million; meanwhile, the ETH ETF continued net inflows of about $102 million, marking 10 consecutive days of capital inflow.
What does this indicate?
Capital hasn't left the crypto market; it's searching for the next main theme.
BTC carries macro capital, ETH begins to absorb ecosystem capital, and SOL acts more like a high-beta offensive direction. Recently, SOL has been relatively strong, while many established altcoins have clearly lagged behind. (BTC Markets)
So going forward, I won't be focusing on "whether the altcoin season has arrived."
Instead, I'll watch a more important signal:
When BTC is consolidating, can ETH and SOL continue to hit new highs?
If BTC digests chips between $77,000 and $82,000 while ETH and SOL keep strengthening, that is true capital diffusion.
Conversely, if BTC falls below $77,000 and ETH and SOL weaken together, this rally is more likely just a rebound.
Now is not the time to go all-in on altcoins.
Real opportunities often appear when capital rotation begins, but most people haven't yet realized that rotation has occurred.A-shares have dropped 46%, while the token has only dropped 17%, the catch-up drop of the Unitree token is just beginning!
Look at the trend of Unitree Technology's A-shares: opened at 1100 on the first day of listing, now down to 591, a 46% drop. Now look at the $UNITREE token: dropped from 100.49 to 83.15, only a 17% drop.
The same company, A-shares dropped 46%, the token only dropped 17%, the token is seriously lagging behind A-shares, with huge room for catch-up decline. This is not token resilience, but poor token liquidity and delayed price discovery; the drop that should happen has not finished yet.
Moreover, A-shares are still falling: on August 26, they dropped to 571, a new low since listing, with 5 consecutive days of decline, and a market value evaporation of 200 billion in 6 days. A-shares show no sign of stopping the decline, so the token will inevitably follow with a catch-up drop.
If the token is to follow the A-shares' drop of 46%, from 100 it should drop to around 54. Now at 83, there is still a large downside space.
Strategy: short at 83-84, stop loss at 86, target 75-70. A-shares dropped 46% while the token only dropped 17%, huge room for catch-up decline, don't catch the falling knife halfway.
The above is personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $SPCX $BTC $ETH $MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX $SOLWhale profit-taking is not the end, it's the beginning. $HYPE below 80 to watch
When whales start cashing out profits, don't imagine they're buying back at higher prices.
News: The HYPE whale starting with 0x0a84 began continuous selling today, offloading 11,000 tokens in 4 hours, pocketing $420,000 in profits. The key point is, he still holds 247,000 tokens worth $20.05 million, 22 times the amount already sold. Sell orders remain at 81.05, no sign of stopping.
Technical: RSI6=45.84 has fallen below the 50 midpoint, indicating short-term weakness. Price has been falling from 81.5 continuously, MACD histogram is about to turn negative, a death cross is imminent. Resistance zone is at 82-84 above.
Capital flow: FLOW SCORE -46, short-term capital continues net outflow. Liquidation map shows dense long positions at 78-79 below; if broken, it triggers long liquidation.
Personal view: Whale profit-taking has just begun; if 80 doesn't hold, target is 73-75.
Trading strategy:
Aggressive: Short near current price 80.8, target 78-76.
Conservative: Short after a rebound to 82-83 confirming resistance, target 75.
Watch Tang Seng; when the whale finishes clearing positions, look at the price then, don't say I didn't warn you! #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
I am Cige. After NVIDIA's report, Broadcom and Dell are taking over. Dell Technologies Group will announce its results on September 1, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on September 2.
On the hardware side, the test is whether custom AI chips, network equipment, and server orders can continue to grow and convert into profits and cash flow. On the software side, it depends on whether cloud data demand can form more stable subscription and usage revenue. NVIDIA has confirmed that demand for computing power remains strong, but this week's focus is on whether AI investment can further expand from chip procurement to servers, networks, and enterprise software, supporting broader tech stock valuations.
If Dell's server orders and Broadcom's network chip data are both strong, the AI chain will be fully connected from computing power to hardware to networks. If the data diverges, the market will reassess which segments truly benefit and which are just riding the wave. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. That's all from Cige, take it in. $BTC $ETH $SOL Missile surge pushes oil prices? US-Iran mutual strikes ignite the oil market!
When missiles fire, retail investors rush in; whales quietly count short-sellers' corpses preparing to exit.
US-Iran strikes push oil prices to 86, but don't get carried away! Market forecasts show: Iran's full airspace blockade probability is only 26%, US invasion just 16%—the market thinks this conflict won't escalate much.
Looking at the funds: $CL at 85.76, overbought indicator soaring to 82, 30-day net outflow of $110 million, big money is pulling while running. Smart money is mostly long, average cost 79, current floating profit only 490K, few chasing highs; shorts are being squeezed, average 84.2 losing 5.14 million. Liquidation charts show 86.2-87.4 is a minefield for shorts ready to explode, another dollar up and shorts will bleed heavily. $BZ is the same, shorts losing even worse.
Technicals are both overbought, but volume has shrunk—a classic pump and dump.$ETH 🚨 ETH 1-hour key alert: surge and pullback, keep an eye on these two lifelines!
During market consolidation, the worst is to open orders recklessly. From the 1H chart, ETH is currently stuck in a "top above, bottom below" squeeze with extremely fierce bulls vs bears battle! 🔥
Key levels:
Upper red resistance zone: 2458 - 2485
As long as it doesn't firmly hold above 2485, any rebound to this area is a safe short entry point.
Lower blue strong defense zone: 2306 - 2381
The last bottom line for bulls! Multiple times it has stabilized and rebounded in this range. If it dips here again, it's an excellent long entry (bottom fishing) spot. But if it breaks below 2306 effectively, beware of a deep correction.
Current trend (price around 2431):
Price is stuck in the middle, considered dead time; avoid chasing highs or selling lows in this zone!
Practical strategy (high sell, low buy):
Short: wait for rebound to around 2458 - 2480 and enter short on stagnation
Long: wait for pullback to around 2310 - 2380 and enter long on stabilization
When direction is unclear, patiently wait for key levels.The crypto market's BTC has fallen below the 78,000 mark.
In this round of geopolitical disturbances, Bitcoin's movement is synchronized with crude oil rather than following gold's safe-haven trend.
Traditional safe-haven asset gold did not rise as expected; instead, it opened sharply lower.
The market is currently pricing in more than simple panic-driven risk aversion.
The surge in oil prices brings concerns about energy inflation, directly limiting the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts, with the US dollar's real interest rates rising, naturally suppressing the interest-free asset gold.
At this stage, $BTC's trading characteristics lean more toward high-beta risk assets, not the "digital gold" safe-haven asset many imagine.
In an environment where geopolitics push inflation and tighten liquidity expectations, it is more likely to be pressured alongside the stock market and growth assets.#银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 While most people focus on the 176M SOL voting weight, what I see is a sacrificed piece—a slow, six-year cut loss in exchange for control in the endgame. The 67% threshold just barely crosses two-thirds; this is not luck, but a rehearsed prelude to checkmate countless times.
The most dangerous part of the chessboard is never the fierce midgame skirmishes, but the seemingly gentle exchanges. SGP-0002 doesn’t move a single pawn on the king’s wing; it only slows down the issuance clock by one notch. 18.9M SOL over six years, diluting about 3.1M per year on average. Just looking at the numbers, it seems like a pawn’s step forward, insignificant. But experts know that when a pawn reaches the seventh rank, it’s closer to promotion than any rook, knight, or cannon.
This move by Solana essentially slows down the "printing press" speed, but lets all knights holding the staking scepters watch helplessly as their mounts lose weight. Stakers and validators, once the pillars guarding this distributed kingdom, have now become sacrificed pieces. With rewards thinning, will participation retreat? Will the security budget leak? This is the subtlety of the game.
I learned a strict rule in professional chess: any move that actively reduces your own piece value must hide a more ruthless follow-up. The true meaning of SGP-0002 is not in the reduction itself, but in throwing the problem back to the other side of the board—fee income. If the on-chain fees, this inner wing horse, can fill the missing reward gap, then this "reduction" is a beautiful central breakthrough; if fee income is just a mirage on the sand table, then this move is a blunder against one’s own formation.
The current board state is "waiting." The proposal passed, the mainnet upgrade is untouched, contracts undeployed. The extra time on the chess clock is all used to set up subsequent variations. Smart money doesn’t celebrate the move’s moment; they focus on how to adjust the defensive position next. Reduced issuance raises deflation expectations, possibly benefiting spot holders, but the spread curve in market makers’ eyes has long been ferried over in anticipation.
The real tactical focus is whether fees can reconstruct a "value conservation" without hurting participation. This is like the rook versus pawn theory in the endgame—seemingly simple, but a half-step difference can reverse victory or defeat. Validators’ computing power is the "move reserve" on the board; if they go offline due to declining returns, the network’s confirmation time will collapse like a timeout loss. That is the real checkmate.
But Solana’s players seem to believe in another path: switching rewards from "on-chain inflation" to "application fees." This conversion is like the classic "Fianchetto Gambit"—a short-term material sacrifice to gain control of the open file. Meanwhile, the whole market’s attention is still on the linked pullback of US stock indexes, like spectators watching a slow chess game, only jolted awake by the crisp sound of pieces hitting the board.
I project this move’s follow-up to the twentieth move. If the staking rate moderately declines but validator concentration rises, security won’t collapse; the scepter will just gather from dispersed nobles to a few super castles. This will completely reshape the so-called "decentralization"—then, no tangible proposal is needed, an invisible chessboard will have been reconstructed.
And the dividends from the reduction will eventually settle in the hands of players brave enough to place positions on "slow variables." They won’t move half a point for every minute’s candlestick fluctuation; they only decisively push out a deeply hidden pawn when the opponent exposes a weakness.
This move is not checkmate, but waiting for the opponent to err. And the real victory or defeat was already written on the back of the board the moment the sacrificed piece gently fell. #solanainflationvoteJust as the foundation gave its third muffled thud, all of Cronos's tower cranes locked up. It wasn't a power outage, nor a strike—it was that the cracks on the load-bearing walls had become visible to the naked eye. The construction chief had to hit the emergency brake, halting the entire building still under pouring.
This happened on August 30, 2024. A low-liquidity Tonic price was manipulated, as if someone mixed several bags of substandard cement into the concrete mixer truck, then used these inflated "collaterals" to pry large loans from Tectonic's credit sheds. The blueprints specified that this wall could bear 100 MPa, but the concrete poured on site was actually less than 30 MPa. When the real load was applied, the cracks ran straight through from the bottom floor to the refuge layer. Researchers estimate that $75 million worth of construction was affected, with $6 million already "smuggled" to other sites via cross-chain bridges.
What we structural engineers hate most is not earthquakes, but discrepancies between blueprints and reality. The whitepaper is a rendering, tokenomics is the interior design plan, and the real design drawings are hidden in every line of bytecode in the smart contracts. Tectonic says "losses and causes are yet to be confirmed"—this is like a structural engineer opening a test report at a collapse site, finding that the slab's reinforcement ratio failed inspection, yet still debating whether the earthquake was to blame.
Zooming out: Moonwell's $8.7 million collateral pricing incident, Avici's payment contracts and third-party risks—this is already the third recurrence of the same underlying issue. You call this an "attack," I call it "failed acceptance." Low-liquidity collateral is quicksand, oracle prices are uncalibrated levels, and risk limits are fire exits drawn on walls—looking decent in normal times, but dead ends in a fire.
The industry likes to talk about "ecosystems," "narratives," and "consensus," but whether a project can stand firm never depends on how many glass curtain walls the facade uses, but on how deep the invisible piles are driven. Cronos's choice to pause block production is like decisively abandoning the site and evacuating workers during a typhoon—it's the wisdom of loss prevention, but also proof of blueprint failure. Truly top-tier engineering never lets the foundation face its first earthquake after delivery.
Now, Cronos's tower cranes still hang in midair, workers have retreated beyond the safety line, waiting for the general contractor and design institute to reconfirm the load data of every load-bearing wall. And Tectonic's inspection report still lacks a stamp. #cronoshaltsafterattackBTC's relative stability near $78,000 matters more than the quiet headline move. With ETH and SOL lagging over the past day, this looks like selective risk appetite rather than a broad crypto rebound.
I would keep a defensive bias while oil-sensitive US-Iran tensions and labor-market questions remain in focus. A firmer BTC-gold relationship may support the store-of-value case, but durable upside still needs participation to broaden beyond BTC.
Just my read, not advice.【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series 55】
The last drop before the main rise after the 2012 bull market recovery period ended: this indicator fell below 60% at its lowest point
The last drop before the main rise after the 2016 bull market recovery period ended: this indicator fell below 60% at its lowest point
The last drop before the main rise after the 2019 bull market recovery period ended: this indicator fell below 55% at its lowest point (ignoring the subsequent 312 black swan event)
The last drop before the main rise after the 2023 bull market recovery period ended: this indicator fell below 55% at its lowest point
┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐
The black line at the top of the chart represents the Bitcoin price; the indicator at the bottom of the chart shows the percentage of Bitcoin coins in a floating profit state relative to the total circulating supply (coins that have not moved for over 10 years are considered long-term dormant or lost and are excluded from the calculation)In a crypto bull market, most investors who are still actively trading essentially aim to outperform the price increase of $BTC spot. In past cycles, among friends and community members, many made aggressive moves, but few ultimately outperformed BTC.
Personally, I adopt a phased grid coin accumulation strategy. For example, currently, I expect BTC's extreme pullback level to be above 70K. While holding spot, I place low-position long contract orders and Sell Put orders (a low-buy strategy) below the current price, keeping leverage under 50%.
If the orders don't fill, I collect option premiums. If they do, there will always be opportunities to take profits at higher levels during the bull market.
Since the spot base position is always held, as long as there is no liquidation and BTC remains in a bull market, this strategy will inevitably outperform BTC. Additionally, profits gained from the grid strategy are continuously used to buy some further out-of-the-money Puts as protection against extreme market moves, which can bring unexpected "surprises" during lightning pullbacks in the bull market.#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ The strength of $BTC and $ETH still needs further confirmation.
The outlook for $ETH remains moderately bullish in the medium term, but cautious in the short term.
What will truly impact next is not just the candlestick charts, but the US Federal Reserve data.
If employment weakens and inflation cools, market expectations for rate cuts will rise, and high Beta assets like $ETH could benefit significantly.
Conversely, if inflation again exceeds expectations, and the US dollar and Treasury yields continue to strengthen, $ETH will face considerable short-term pressure. #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 🚨 $TRUMP IS AT A DECISION POINT — THE NEXT MOVE COULD COME FAST.
Weekend volume dried up while price stayed trapped around the $2.4–$2.6 zone. That kind of low-volume weakness can simply mean the market is digesting before making its real move.
By Monday or Tuesday, I’m watching for one of two setups:
📈 Doji reversal + volume → possible short squeeze higher
📉 Heavy-volume breakdown → this rally could be officially losing steam
#DailyOrbit As interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin takes the first hit!
$BTC's previous high has been smashed! It dropped quickly from 81,000 to 77,000, but it's not yet in a range where you can buy with your eyes closed. Why:
1. ETF funds reversed for the first time. The record of a net inflow of $2.6 billion on the 9th was broken on 8/28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.8M. This is the real driver of today's drop.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults I am the mid-term intelligence guy. With SanDisk Kioxia's $31 billion investment (over 6 years, until 2032), many are panicking: does this expansion spell bad news for NAND?
Let me translate for you: The new factory Fab3 in the north will only open in fiscal 2029, and before that, equipment installation and ramp-up are needed. The supply will still be tight in 2027–2028.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults At this position for ZKC, there's no need to look at news anymore; the on-chain anomalies have already revealed the intent. In the last half hour, net outflows from exchanges have tripled, with several large addresses completing seven main buy orders between 0.0535 and 0.0540, each around 20,000 USDT, a level of support that retail investors can't achieve. The naked candlestick had a wick down to 0.0531 at midnight but did not continue with volume, closing with a long lower shadow, indicating that liquidity below was fully absorbed. Now the price has returned to 0.0549, testing near the dense trading zone at 0.0552. Contract open interest has increased by about 20%, but funding fees have not surged, indicating that the new long positions are not chasing highs but are whales accumulating spot positions at low levels while simultaneously defending. I just delivered a package to the sixth floor of an old building without an elevator, sat on the stairs, and glanced at the order book; the buy one level thickness clearly outweighs the sell one level. Here, wait for a pullback to 0.0544–0.0550 to continue entering, with a stop loss at 0.0529, leaving no room for luck. The first take profit target is 0.0583, which is the previous round's trapped position accumulation area; after breaking through, look to 0.0610. Defense is a must, or else you won't even be able to pay for today's battery replacement.
$ZKC
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
@OKX星球 Don't rush to draw conclusions about the market just because of the ETF shift.
On August 28, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $201.9 million, ending a streak of 9 consecutive days of net inflows; during the same period, the Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $102.1 million, continuing 10 days of capital absorption.
The divergence lies here: BTC funds took profits near $80,000, which is slightly bearish in the short term; ETH funds showed stronger resilience, leaning bullish.
This is not just a simple daily ETF fluctuation, but more like institutional funds reallocating between BTC at high levels and ETH catching up.
Next, focus on two things: whether BTC outflows will expand, and whether ETH can continue to attract funds. Otherwise, high-level volatility in major coins may intensify.
Source: Decrypt
#BTC #ETH #Crypto100WIn the past week, Bitcoin jumped from over 60,000 to 80,000. Market sentiment shifted very quickly. At 60,000, people were still saying the bear market was bottomless, that the original family dog wouldn't play, and would never lack storage. As soon as 80,000 hit, voices like "historic bottom," "new bull market start," and "new highs" started appearing again. But what we need to be most wary of now is precisely this kind of sentiment shift. Because by the standards of previous crypto bear markets, this drop is far from enough. In real bear markets, BTC usually dropped 70% or even 80%. This round from the historical high to around $60,000 is about 50%. This has caused many spot traders to not be fully invested and are now anxious about buying on a low basis. So if you only look at historical declines, 60,000 is nothing like the traditional crypto bottom. But here's the problem. This round can't just use the previous 80% drawdown to get trapped. Because BTC is no longer the BTC it used to be. ETFs, institutions, stablecoins, derivatives, and macro funds have all come in, market caps are getting bigger, and long-term decline in volatility is a major trend. In the future, crypto bear markets are likely to no longer be cleared out every time with -80%. It could be: drops of 50%-60%, then a year-long sideways. In the past, it was price killing. In the future, it may be more about killing time. So the real important question now isn't 'whether this drop is deep enough,' but rather: what kind of bottom has this bear market actually reached? According to the lessons of veteran investors who have experienced three bull and bear cycles, a realThe key oil signal is not the initial spike above $90 Brent, but whether disruption persists after military risk moved closer to transport routes around Hormuz. Pressure on Iranian trade through planned U.S. bank sanctions could also tighten settlement channels even if physical flows continue.
My read: steady tanker traffic would favor a fading short-term risk premium, while repeated attacks or financing constraints would make the repricing more durable. The next confirmation should come from flows, not headlines. Not advice, just analysis.
#USIranTensionsHitOil$ZORA is just a boring altcoin pump to play with. The entire market is currently falling. Who gave you the courage to try to pump it? And if you're going to pump, then pump properly. The contract funding rate is still negative, and surprisingly, there are more longs than shorts. If you can actually pump it up like this, that would be unbelievable.
This clearly looks like a manipulative spot pump by a whale controlling the contract price, trying to attract attention during the market pullback to find someone to take the bag. Brothers, don't be fooled. As long as this coin keeps giving opportunities, I'll keep adding to my short position.I used to feel that "whitelisted assets" and DEXs together was a bit awkward. Uniswap v4 has recently made this happen.
Permissioned Pools allow restricted tokens like funds and securities to access AMMs. Real tokens are placed in a separate Adapter, and virtual balances are used for trading within the pool; each time tokens are swapped or liquidity is added, the contract checks whether the wallet is on the issuer's whitelist. The issuer can also pause trading and withdraw LP positions that are no longer compliant if necessary.
It has already launched on Ethereum mainnet and Sepolia, with institutions like Superstate and Securitize integrating.
My judgment is straightforward: this provides an additional usable liquidity channel for RWA. The cost is also clear—who can trade is still decided by the issuer, and the whitelist may fragment liquidity. I will continue to watch real asset launches and trading volume, and will not chase UNI just because of more "institutional narratives."
Data: Uniswap Labs, Uniswap Docs. Personal record, not investment advice.
$UNI #RWA$BTC 's previous high has been smashed! It dropped quickly from 81,000 to 77,000, but it's not yet in a range where you can buy with your eyes closed. Why:
1. ETF funds reversed for the first time. The record of a net inflow of $2.6 billion on the 9th was broken on 8/28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.8M. This is the real driver of today's drop, not a technical correction.
2. The 77k line has support. The last correction low (8/27) was at 76.9k, and below that is a dense support zone AI demand extending to storage and software indicates that this round of trading is entering a more challenging phase
Buying GPUs is the most straightforward approach—buy what’s lacking, orders are queued, and the narrative is clear. But moving forward, it gets complicated: storage depends on supply cycles, software depends on whether customers are willing to keep paying, and networking and security depend on whether companies truly change their processes
In the earnings reports of companies like Marvell, AI and data center demand is strong, but the stock price reaction isn’t as enthusiastic. The reason is simple: the market is no longer satisfied with hearing "AI demand is booming." It starts to question whether growth is already priced in, if gross margins can be maintained, and whether major clients will take away pricing power
The second half of AI isn’t about whoever is involved seeing gains, but about who can turn the hype into stable revenue
#财报观察员：AI需求延伸至存储与软件 The 10-year rolling return spread of the S&P 500 relative to U.S. Treasuries has surpassed 15%, marking the highest point since 1960, even more extreme than during 1929.
Such extreme divergence rarely lasts permanently. Historically, whenever the equity-bond return spread widened this much, it was followed either by a long-term rebound in bonds (with interest rates peaking and falling) or a valuation correction in the stock market. Everyone knows what happened after 1929; after the 2000 tech bubble burst, bonds also outperformed stocks for several years.
The current question is: can the Federal Reserve truly suppress inflation? If inflation remains sticky, long-term interest rates won’t come down, and bonds will continue to be suppressed. But if the economy really experiences a hard landing, the stock market valuation bubble will burst first, and bonds will instead become a safe haven.
Personally, I tend to believe that this 15%+ spread is unsustainable. It doesn’t mean the stock market will crash immediately, but rather that bonds’ relative performance may be much better in the coming years. From a portfolio perspective, it’s not wise to go all-in on stocks; appropriately increasing duration exposure might be a more rational choice.
Of course, timing is always the hardest part. But at least from a historical probability standpoint, now is the time to start considering rebalancing.截至今天，$BTC 在 $77,900 附近，刚从周末的 $77,000 一线反弹；ETH 在 $2,400 附近。市场并没有真正转弱，但前期冲上 $80,000 后明显开始出现获利盘。 更值得注意的是资金结构。 上周 BTC 现货 ETF 全周仍然录得约 9.24亿美元净流入，ETH ETF 更是达到约 8.24亿美元，创下今年最强周度流入之一。也就是说，现在更像是“价格在调整，但机构资金还没有撤退”。只是 BTC ETF 和 ETH ETF 的资金开始出现分化。(KuCoin) 所以我现在对市场的判断很简单： BTC $80,000 不是终点，但也不是现在应该无脑追的位置。 $77,000附近是短线比较重要的承接区，如果这里能够稳住，再重新突破 $80,000–82,000，市场才有机会继续向前高区域挑战。 反过来，如果 $77,000失守，那么这轮从 $68,000附近启动的快速上涨，就需要进入更长时间的震荡消化。 ETH反而值得多看一眼。 ETH最近的表现并不差，而且资金流入明显强于BTC。市场开始从单纯的“BTC风险资产交易”，逐渐重新寻找 Ethereum、Solana 以# Latest Updates
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell hawkish at Jackson Hole, reaffirming the rigid 2% inflation target; short-term US Treasury yields surged, September rate hike expectations now evenly split, higher probability in Q4.
- US-Iran tensions escalate, US military strikes Iranian missile launch sites, Iran retaliates by firing missiles at US bases; Iran admits sanctions caused 35% drop in imports and exports, 66% inflation in July, Brent crude near $90.
- Changxin Memory H1 results exceed expectations, revenue 150.3 billion yuan (up 874% YoY), net profit 77.6 billion yuan, Q2 gross margin 87.6%; sues US Defense Department to revoke military enterprise designation.
- OpenAI plans to stop providing model services to SpaceX's Cursor, Musk and OpenAI conflict escalates; Anthropic says it will increase computing power support for Cursor.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain conclusion: Powell prioritizes restoring credibility, market volatility expected, fundamentals of individual stocks remain key.
- Powell's hawkish stance pushes up short-term yields; only one nonfarm payroll and CPI before September, rate hike doubtful then, higher probability in Q4. US-Iran clashes push Brent crude near $90, geopolitical risks and high oil prices support inflation and long-term rates, suppressing risk valuations.
- Crypto under pressure: BTC 77,600, ETH 2415, ETF outflows 202 million. AI shifts to ROI validation, expected to fluctuate. Because $IBIT is driving most of the fresh BTC ETF demand, any slowdown in new creations could weaken the bullish case for Bitcoin.
IBIT accounted for 79.8% of the $2.84B rebound, while the other funds recorded $13.8M in net outflows during week two.
Interestingly, $BTC still slipped 0.6% despite $924.5M in ETF inflows—showing that strong ETF demand alone may not be enough to push price higher. 👀 Polygon recently disclosed the security issues fixed in the Austin and Kyoto hard forks. The vulnerabilities affected Polygon PoS's Bor and Heimdall clients. The fixes were first tested on Amoy, then activated on the mainnet, and only afterward were the details revealed. The official statement said no exploitation of these vulnerabilities was observed on the mainnet. Austin addressed two denial-of-service (DoS) paths in Bor. The first came from state sync events from L1 to L2: they execute contracts and precompiles but previously had no independent hard gas limit per block. A block filled with enough or particularly expensive state sync events could slow down block processing. The second came from the `TxDependency` field. Originally just a hint for parallel execution, it had no size limit, allowing malicious block producers to insert oversized data that could crash nodes processing the block. The Heimdall issue fixed by Kyoto better illustrates the nature of on-chain DoS. Transaction messages use `google.protobuf.Any` wrapping, and `Any` can nest further `Any` messages. Without depth limits, attackers can craft a cheap deeply nested transaction that forces all validators to perform costly decoding simultaneously. The sender pays a low cost, but the network bears an amplified cost. Therefore, DoS prevention cannot focus solely on transaction gas #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny #BTC high-level volatility, increased correlation with gold Good afternoon everyone!
The following is purely an objective logical deduction and does not constitute investment advice.
This time, analyzing BTC, ETH, and SOL from the perspectives of liquidity environment, chip structure, and valuation constraints, setting aside Federal Reserve events.
$BTC BTC
Liquidity: Mainly absorbs allocation funds from institutional ETFs, with a long-term capital attribute, insensitive to short-term market movements. Incremental funds mainly come from external institutions; existing on-exchange funds are unlikely to drive sustained large rallies.
Chips: Spot base positions are solid, with a large amount of chips held by institutions and long-term holders; the circulating floating chips account for a limited proportion. During declines, long-term chips are not easily sold; more often, leveraged long positions are liquidated.
Valuation constraints: No intrinsic cash flow; valuation depends on consensus and institutional allocation demand. The price ceiling depends on the position institutions are willing to allocate to crypto assets; the floor comes from global consensus.
Current status: Above 80,000, part of the institutional acceptance expectation has been priced in. Without new external incremental funds, it is easy to fall into range-bound volatility and difficult to break out into a one-sided trend.
$ETH ETH
Liquidity: Fund composition is mixed; part is institutional allocation, another part is DeFi and L2 ecosystem trading funds, with a high proportion of derivatives trading. Fund demands are not unified.
Chips: A large amount of tokens are staked and locked, reducing circulating selling pressure, but a large amount of historical trapped chips accumulate above. Ecosystem participants' holdings are stable, but trading chips move quickly in and out based on expectations.
Valuation constraints: On one hand, the market values it for infrastructure growth; on the other, L2 diverts mainnet revenue and SEC regulatory classification remains uncertain, continuously suppressing valuation.
Current status: When macro liquidity does not change significantly, the ETH/BTC ratio is hard to strengthen continuously. Only when the ecosystem narrative materializes substantially can relative returns open up; once market funds tighten, trading chips will be sold first, with a larger pullback than BTC.
$SOL SOL
Liquidity: Almost no large-scale institutional allocation; liquidity fully depends on on-exchange speculative funds, retail investors, and trading funds. External incremental funds entering the market will bring big moves; under existing conditions, only pulses can be made.
Chips: Staking proportion is low; many tokens are in a tradable state, chip turnover is very high, and long-term base positions are weak. Chips cluster during hot markets but disperse quickly when enthusiasm fades.
Valuation constraints: No stable cash flow as an anchor; valuation is entirely determined by market risk appetite. On-chain transaction volume and Meme popularity can push prices up short-term but rarely convert into long-term valuation support.
Current status: Highly elastic in incremental markets; poor sustainability in sideways markets. Once the market's profit effect weakens, it becomes the first target for fund reduction, with the largest pullback among the three.
Summary
Core differences among the three:
BTC is driven by external institutional increments, with stable chips and controllable volatility;
ETH is a game between institutional and ecosystem funds, constrained by regulation and value diversion;
SOL relies on on-exchange sentiment and speculative funds, with high elasticity accompanied by high drawdowns.
Market rotation: Incremental funds arrive in order BTC→ETH→SOL; when incremental funds dry up, the reverse cash-out occurs: SOL weakens first, then ETH, with BTC relatively resistant to decline. On Monday, the Seoul market experienced a sharp divergence, with foreign investors selling nearly $2.7 billion worth of chip heavyweights in a single day, while retail investors inside the market fully stepped in to buy.
Samsung plunged 8.70% in one day, whereas $SKHYNIX, which promised a full cancellation of 40 trillion KRW, narrowed its decline to 3.41%, showing stronger resilience against the drop.
The sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions suppressed global risk appetite, coupled with Samsung's move over the weekend to postpone the details of its buyback cancellation to next year, prompting foreign investors to seize the opportunity to concentrate on reducing semiconductor positions.
Assets with higher certainty of buyback realization withstood the impact of foreign investors' concentrated exit, while targets with vague details became the primary pressure points for position reductions.
If subsequent geopolitical disturbances cool down and foreign investors' net selling narrows, chip leaders supported by certain cancellation are expected to be the first to see position replenishment and liquidity recovery.
If external risk aversion continues to spread and triggers rising inflation expectations, the passive deleveraging process of foreign investors will continue to amplify the adjustment depth of high-valuation stocks.
Once retail investors' capacity to absorb exhausts or macro liquidity tightens further, the previously resilient buyback commitments may also be suppressed by broader sell-offs.
The most critical variable to observe in the coming week is whether the scale of foreign investors' single-day net outflow can stabilize and converge below the 30 trillion KRW threshold.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验because IBIT supplies most new ETF demand for BTC, slower creations from the fund would weaken the case for further BTC upside. it supplied 79.8% of the $2.84b rebound, and the other funds had $13.8m of net outflows in week two. bitcoin fell 0.6% despite $924.5m of inflows.Big shots showing off their presence, it's the same feeling as when we post on Moments,
Peter Schiff says Bitcoin is not a real asset.
Wall Street and institutions buying Bitcoin,
precisely value what Schiff calls a non-real asset.
Sounds counterintuitive, right?
But if you look at it from another angle, it makes sense.
Gold is physical, it indeed has value. But physical also means trouble.
You have to store it, transport it, and safeguard it.
Cross-border is even more troublesome, plus a bunch of regulations and physical restrictions.
What big capital fears most now is exactly these things.
There’s so much money, and debt risk is rising,
when it really comes to fleeing, hedging, and moving funds across borders, you can’t exactly run away carrying tons of gold bars.
Has gold ever been confiscated or seized historically? Plenty of times.
Schiff keeps saying gold is tangible and visible.
But he overlooks one thing:
Since capital entered the digital era, what matters most has changed.
Censorship resistance, cross-border transfer, fast settlement, no physical boundary constraints.
These are things gold struggles to achieve.
Buying some gold bars to hedge risk is possible, but for big capital, that’s not what they care about.
What they see in Bitcoin is something physical assets never had before:
Digital, scarce, globally liquid, and not easily blocked by any single country.
So Bitcoin isn’t here to compete with gold’s industrial attributes.
What it truly arbitrages is the fiat credit system and liquidity frictions in the real world.
You can understand it this way:
Schiff is still measuring assets with an old-era ruler.$BTC's rebound in August was indeed strong, but don't be fooled by the single-month performance — over the whole year, Bitcoin still dropped by nearly 30%. The current 78,000 level looks more like a bear market rally continuation rather than the start of a new bull market. There is heavy resistance above, with 81,000 and 85,000 being tough hurdles; the key support below is at 73,000-74,000, and if that doesn't hold, trouble awaits.
My personal target range for the end of the year is 95,000-145,000, but there's a premise: US Treasury yields must not surge further. If the macro environment suddenly turns hawkish and rate hike expectations reignite, the 70,000 level could be pulled down for retesting at any time. So don't expect to get rich overnight now; survive first, then talk about predictions.
In the market, lasting longer is more important than guessing right. $BTC$BTC surged to $80,000 and then dropped back down; this time, the funds to really watch out for
As of August 31, BTC has returned to around $77,000–$78,000, while on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $202 million, ending the previous consecutive days of inflows.
This is more noteworthy than just looking at the candlestick charts.
A few days ago, ETF funds kept flowing in, with a single-day net inflow reaching $606 million on August 20, and BTC followed suit, surging past $80,000. But at the high point, funds immediately loosened, indicating that the selling pressure around $80,000 is not light.
What’s more troublesome is that the macro environment hasn’t continued to support BTC.
Latest news shows oil prices have climbed back near $90, US Treasury yields remain high, and the market’s expectation for a Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 57%. This means the short-term US dollar liquidity environment is tightening.
So my current view on BTC is simple: $80,000 cannot yet be considered a true breakout.
If ETF inflows resume steadily, and BTC can firmly hold above $80,000, then there’s a possibility for further upward space; but if funds continue to flow out and $77,000 is lost, then the correction after this rally may not be over.
Especially now, the correlation between BTC and gold is becoming more obvious, indicating that funds are starting to treat it as a macro asset to trade, not just a pure crypto market trend.
Personally, I won’t chase the price at this level.
Whether $80,000 can hold is more important than whether it can break through. The two things to watch now are: whether ETF funds return, and whether the $77,000 level can hold.
$ETH $SOL
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Fundamental Research Report $TEAM / Atlassian (NASDAQ·SaaS/Collaboration) $190.41 (24h +2.58%)
Core Judgment: Atlassian ($TEAM) comprehensive score 55/100, rating Narrative over execution. The business fundamentals are mainly based on external paying customers, and the market cap to revenue multiple is still within a reasonable range.
Atlassian ($TEAM) is listed on NASDAQ, in the SaaS/Collaboration sector. Simply put: Jira + Confluence. Comparable to CRM, MSFT. Business growth relies on order delivery and market share expansion, with the core focus on whether revenue growth and gross margin match capital expenditure intensity. Macroeconomic interest rates and industry prosperity determine the valuation baseline. No involvement in token economics or on-chain settlement logic. Product implementation: officially operational with paid usage, revenue verifiable via SEC 10-Q/10-K filings; financial report data is legally disclosed. Latest version not found, no valid commits found in the past 90 days.
At the user level, MAU and customer numbers are based on 10-Q/10-K. Stock 24h trading volume $5.22M, circulating shares and market cap structure to be confirmed. Core focus on whether revenue growth rate and gross margin align with stock price expectations. Revenue side: operating revenue $6.57B (latest financial report/consensus expectation), gross profit estimated by industry average pending update, net profit to be confirmed by 10-K/10-Q, shareholder returns seen through buybacks and dividends. US-listed companies making money does not equate to token holders profiting; BTC-related stocks like MSTR/COIN require separate separation of BTC unrealized gains. Code side: no valid commits found in 90 days, no active contributors found, latest version not found. GitHub is level A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: Atlassian ($TEAM) is the listed entity, shareholder structure based on 13F/10-K disclosures. Primary partnerships are level A evidence via IR announcements; media mentions and industry conferences are level C/D and not used alone as commercial implementation evidence.
Valuation anchor: circulating market cap $48.20B, valued by P/E, P/S, EV/Revenue, not applicable for token unlocks. BTC-related stocks (MSTR/COIN/MARA) require splitting BTC exposure and core business for revaluation. Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): circulating market cap: Atlassian $48.20B, CRM $210.69B, MSFT $3.81T. FDV: Atlassian undisclosed, CRM $210.69B, MSFT $3.81T. Annual revenue: Atlassian $6.57B, CRM $43.94B, MSFT $331.84B. Monthly active addresses or users: Atlassian undisclosed, CRM undisclosed, MSFT undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official self-reporting or industry standards. Valuation: current market cap $48.20B, P/S (consensus revenue) 7.3x. Cyclical stocks (miners/GPU) use cycle-adjusted P/E. Pessimistic view cuts $48.20B in half, neutral maintains range, optimistic sees P/S expansion of 20-50%. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 55/100). Equity value anchor looks at revenue, net profit, buybacks, and dividends. Circulating market cap is reasonable or undervalued relative to fundamentals, FDV close to MC, no major unlocks, sell pressure controllable. Potential risks: rising macro interest rates pressuring valuation, AI capex investment below expectations, regulatory lawsuits (SEC/DoL). Ongoing focus: revenue growth, gross margin, buyback amounts, order backlog, institutional holdings changes (13F). Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not constituting buy or sell advice. Data deviation over 30% requires revaluation.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #USStocks #Research #OKXOrbit$ZORA demon coin, where do you think you're going~~ Watch how I take you down, haha brothers, this trade just opened a few minutes ago, and I already took it. Let me explain why I shorted it.
Currently, this coin has about 43 million USD in open positions across the network, and the overall long-to-short ratio is actually 6 to 4, meaning 6 out of 10 people are going long. So I think this coin is too heavily weighted, too many retail investors are long, it definitely can't be pushed up.
Also, this coin has only risen about 50 points today, but the funding fee has already gone negative. Like I said before, coins with such funding fees that easily go negative are usually controlled to the extreme by spot market whales. They use spot to pump the price while simultaneously closing out long contracts and opening short contracts on futures, which causes the negative funding fee.
So I shorted it without hesitation. Are there any brothers riding the same train? Are you going long or short? Analysis of the Next Trends for Bitcoin & Ethereum Based on Global Market Conditions
Date: August 31, 2026
1. Current Global Market and Crypto Market Background
Core Macro Changes: After the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains significantly above the 2% target (PCE 3.7%) and stated "there is still work to be done." The market interpreted this hawkishly, with a significant rise in the probability of a rate hike in September, long-term yields rising, and the US dollar strengthening, directly impacting the previous crypto rally logic driven by "Treasury buybacks + liquidity expectations."
2. Technical Structure and Key Levels
Bitcoin
• Short-term resistance: $79,000–$80,000 (a rebound pressure zone if broken below)
• Key support: $76,500–$77,000; deeper support at $75,000–$76,000
• Structure: shifting from a strong breakout to a high-level pullback; confirmation needed whether it stabilizes around $77,000.
Ethereum
• Resistance: $2,500–$2,550
• Support: $2,400–$2,450; deeper support at $2,300–$2,350
• Still above key moving averages, with a relatively better structure than some altcoins.
3. Upcoming Trend Scenarios (Considering Global Markets)
1. Continued Pullback/Sideways Bottoming Scenario (Higher short-term probability)
Global risk appetite cools, yields remain high, ETF inflows slow or turn to outflows:
• BTC may test $76,000–$77,000, possibly dipping to $75,000.
• ETH may fall below $2,400, approaching $2,350.
Trigger: continued US dollar strength, further rise in US Treasury yields, ongoing deleveraging of long positions.
2. High-level Sideways Stabilization Scenario (Neutral main scenario)
After pullback, buying emerges at support levels, institutional funds still provide some floor:
• BTC oscillates repeatedly between $76,500–$79,500.
• ETH consolidates between $2,400–$2,550.
This is a process of digesting overbought conditions and macro shocks, preparing for subsequent directional choices.
3. Rebound and Recovery Scenario (Requires catalyst)
If subsequent inflation data weakens, or the market reassesses the speech as "hawkish in words but actually restrained," combined with renewed ETF net inflows:
• BTC challenges $80,000 again.
• ETH rises above $2,550.
Currently, this scenario has relatively low probability and requires clear signals of macro or capital improvement.
4. Core Drivers and Observation Priorities
1. Macro pricing changes: whether US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and rate hike probabilities continue to rise.
2. Spot ETF capital flows: whether net inflows turn into sustained outflows, key to judging support strength.
3. Global risk appetite: US stock performance, gold trends, reflecting overall "devaluation trades" and risk asset sentiment.
4. Technical confirmation: whether BTC can hold $77,000 and ETH can hold $2,400.
5. Comprehensive Judgment
The hawkish stance at Jackson Hole interrupted the strong rebound previously driven by Treasury liquidity expectations and ETF capital. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a pullback and re-pricing phase after macro shocks. The global market (rising yields, stronger dollar, pressured risk assets) is exerting short-term suppression on crypto.
In the short term, further oscillation or slight dips are more likely to digest overbought conditions and leverage. The mid-term structure is not yet completely broken (previous breakthroughs of key moving averages and institutional allocation logic remain). If stabilization signals appear after a pullback to key supports, there is still a chance for another rise. However, short-term expectations for chasing highs should be lowered, prioritizing observation of support effectiveness and capital flows. $BTC Layer 2: The funding side can't hold — ETF outflows, options expiration
Looking internally again. The Bitcoin spot ETF's streak of 9 consecutive days of net inflows, totaling about $3 billion, abruptly ended last Friday — a single-day net outflow of $201.9 million. ETF trading was suspended over the weekend, cutting off the largest buying support for the recent rally.
Coincidentally, this weekend, Deribit had about 81,700 BTC options expiring, with a notional value of $6.44 billion. A large number of call options with an $80,000 strike price expired worthless. Market makers adjusted their delta hedging positions, further amplifying the selling pressure.
With buying stopped and selling coming in, can the price not fall?
Layer 3: The most alarming signal — the whales are moving
In the past two days, market maker Wintermute transferred 5,100 BTC to Binance, worth about $400 million. Institutional wallets on Coinbase and Kraken also moved large amounts of BTC to unknown addresses.
When whales move coins to exchanges, it usually means only one thing. Although it doesn't necessarily mean a full dump, this signal cannot be ignored. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 BTC maintains a high-level oscillation range between 76000-80500. From the weekly close perspective, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears at the current position.
The focus should still be on the 4-hour and daily charts, especially paying attention to the oscillation position on the 4-hour chart. There are two possibilities:
1. If the oscillation cannot hold above 79000 and fluctuates around the lower boundary of the range, be alert for an accelerated decline;
2. If it holds above 79000 and oscillates around the area above 79000, watch for another upward push.
$BTC $ETH Just recently, the market was still betting on a rate cut in September, but now it has seriously started discussing "whether there will be a rate hike in September." As of August 31, the market pricing for a September rate hike has risen to about 57%–60%, compared to only about 35% before. More importantly, Barclays has even revised its forecast for the rest of the year to include two 25 basis point hikes in September and December.
The trigger behind this is not just Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, but a very real issue: inflation is not falling fast enough.
The latest data shows that the U.S. July PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June; core PCE rose 3.3% year-over-year. There is still a significant gap from the Fed's 2% target.
So now the Fed faces a somewhat awkward situation: employment has started to cool down, but inflation has not fully come down.
July nonfarm payrolls actually decreased by 23,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and an average monthly increase of only 34,000 jobs over the past 12 months. This number is clearly weaker compared to previous increases of hundreds of thousands or even tens of thousands.
ADP also did not give a particularly strong signal, with only 44,000 private sector jobs added in July.
But the problem lies here.
If employment is already this weak, why does the Fed still dare to consider raising rates?
Because the current employment data looks more like a "gradual cooling," not a "sudden stall." The unemployment rate is still only 4.1%, while inflation remains clearly above the 2% target. In other words, the Fed does not see a reason to immediately rescue the economy but sees the risk of inflation picking up again.
Moreover, the latest external environment adds fuel to the fire.
On August 31, Brent crude oil has risen back to around $90, and the escalation of the Iran situation further increases energy price risks. If oil prices remain high, it will be even harder for U.S. inflation to decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.71%, and the 2-year yield has also risen to about 4.33%.
So now I actually think the most important thing ahead is not guessing whether the Fed will raise rates, but seeing if employment data can push back this "rate hike expectation."
On September 1, watch the JOLTS job openings; on September 2, watch ADP; and the real big event is on September 4—the August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate.
The market currently expects August nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 50,000 to 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.1%.
If the actual data is significantly below expectations, such as employment showing negative growth again and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% or even higher, then the nearly 60% probability of a rate hike will likely fall quickly.
But if nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations again and wage growth does not cool significantly, then it will be a completely different story.
At that time, a September rate hike will no longer be just "talk," but a real policy option on the table.
This is also what I am most focused on now.
BTC has recently fallen from near $81,300 on August 28 to about $77,700 on August 31, and gold also declined today, indicating that after rate hike expectations have warmed again, high-volatility assets have started to feel the pressure.
So next, don't immediately think "rate cuts are coming" just because of a poor employment report, nor should you short immediately just because of a good report.
What truly determines the direction in September is whether employment, wages, inflation, and oil prices can simultaneously give the Fed an answer.
Personally, I now lean toward: short-term risks have not been fully released, especially before the nonfarm payroll release, BTC, gold, and U.S. stocks are prone to significant expectation gap moves.
This time, what’s really worth watching is not the Fed’s next words, but the employment report on September 4.
Because the market has already priced in "rate hikes" in advance.
If employment data does not cooperate, this expectation could be sharply pushed back; if employment remains resilient, then the September trend might really change.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Here's a potentially controversial opinion: The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. The current 60% probability of a rate hike is a false impression created by "Wash's mouth rate hike".
From a technical perspective, the 2-year US Treasury yield has risen from 4.22 to 4.35, fully pricing in one rate hike. But the actual economic data does not support a rate hike: July's PCE has already declined, the job market is cooling down, and tech companies continue to lay off employees.
Wash said at Jackson Hole that "there is still work to be done," but this is standard hawkish rhetoric, not a commitment to action. Historically, the Fed rarely raises rates when the market pricing is below 70%, and 60% is an awkward position.
If there is no rate hike in September, it will be a "surprise" event, and BTC will jump directly from 78,000 to 82,000. Technically, the 77,000 support is solid, and the 4-hour MACD shows a bullish divergence, so an outbreak could happen at any time.
What do you think about the rate hike in September? I bet there won't be one.
$BTC #FederalReserve #RateHikeAs interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin couldn't hold up first.
$BTC TC has dropped all the way down from around 81,000 to now about 77,000, the cooling speed is indeed quite fast.
But honestly, this level is not yet a blind buy zone; it looks more like a quick pullback after breaking the previous high.
Today's decline is mainly due to continued ETF fund outflows.
On the 9th, the single-day net outflow exceeded 2.6 billion USD, another large-scale capital withdrawal after the wave on 8/28, which is the main reason for the market pressure, not just a simple technical correction.
Below, first watch if the support around 77k can hold.
If it continues to drop, 75k and 74k will be stronger support zones. After all, this round of rally involved a lot of leveraged funds, and if funds keep flowing out, the correction magnitude might be amplified.
However, one point worth noting: spot volatility hasn't completely deteriorated.
The 24-hour trading volume so far isn't particularly exaggerated, indicating that the market is still mainly influenced by ETF funds and leveraged positions, and it hasn't reached a stage of true panic selling.
My judgment is: before the rate hike in September is finalized, the market may remain volatile, so don't chase highs lightly.
I've already reduced some positions earlier to secure some profits, and will watch if the support levels can hold for the rest.
What do you think? Is this a normal correction or a signal before the previous high tops out?
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验