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Big shots showing off their presence, it's the same feeling as when we post on Moments,
Peter Schiff says Bitcoin is not a real asset.
Wall Street and institutions buying Bitcoin,
precisely value what Schiff calls a non-real asset.
Sounds counterintuitive, right?
But if you look at it from another angle, it makes sense.
Gold is physical, it indeed has value. But physical also means trouble.
You have to store it, transport it, and safeguard it.
Cross-border is even more troublesome, plus a bunch of regulations and physical restrictions.
What big capital fears most now is exactly these things.
There’s so much money, and debt risk is rising,
when it really comes to fleeing, hedging, and moving funds across borders, you can’t exactly run away carrying tons of gold bars.
Has gold ever been confiscated or seized historically? Plenty of times.
Schiff keeps saying gold is tangible and visible.
But he overlooks one thing:
Since capital entered the digital era, what matters most has changed.
Censorship resistance, cross-border transfer, fast settlement, no physical boundary constraints.
These are things gold struggles to achieve.
Buying some gold bars to hedge risk is possible, but for big capital, that’s not what they care about.
What they see in Bitcoin is something physical assets never had before:
Digital, scarce, globally liquid, and not easily blocked by any single country.
So Bitcoin isn’t here to compete with gold’s industrial attributes.
What it truly arbitrages is the fiat credit system and liquidity frictions in the real world.
You can understand it this way:
Schiff is still measuring assets with an old-era ruler.$BTC's rebound in August was indeed strong, but don't be fooled by the single-month performance — over the whole year, Bitcoin still dropped by nearly 30%. The current 78,000 level looks more like a bear market rally continuation rather than the start of a new bull market. There is heavy resistance above, with 81,000 and 85,000 being tough hurdles; the key support below is at 73,000-74,000, and if that doesn't hold, trouble awaits.
My personal target range for the end of the year is 95,000-145,000, but there's a premise: US Treasury yields must not surge further. If the macro environment suddenly turns hawkish and rate hike expectations reignite, the 70,000 level could be pulled down for retesting at any time. So don't expect to get rich overnight now; survive first, then talk about predictions.
In the market, lasting longer is more important than guessing right. $BTC$BTC surged to $80,000 and then dropped back down; this time, the funds to really watch out for
As of August 31, BTC has returned to around $77,000–$78,000, while on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $202 million, ending the previous consecutive days of inflows.
This is more noteworthy than just looking at the candlestick charts.
A few days ago, ETF funds kept flowing in, with a single-day net inflow reaching $606 million on August 20, and BTC followed suit, surging past $80,000. But at the high point, funds immediately loosened, indicating that the selling pressure around $80,000 is not light.
What’s more troublesome is that the macro environment hasn’t continued to support BTC.
Latest news shows oil prices have climbed back near $90, US Treasury yields remain high, and the market’s expectation for a Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 57%. This means the short-term US dollar liquidity environment is tightening.
So my current view on BTC is simple: $80,000 cannot yet be considered a true breakout.
If ETF inflows resume steadily, and BTC can firmly hold above $80,000, then there’s a possibility for further upward space; but if funds continue to flow out and $77,000 is lost, then the correction after this rally may not be over.
Especially now, the correlation between BTC and gold is becoming more obvious, indicating that funds are starting to treat it as a macro asset to trade, not just a pure crypto market trend.
Personally, I won’t chase the price at this level.
Whether $80,000 can hold is more important than whether it can break through. The two things to watch now are: whether ETF funds return, and whether the $77,000 level can hold.
$ETH $SOL
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Fundamental Research Report $TEAM / Atlassian (NASDAQ·SaaS/Collaboration) $190.41 (24h +2.58%)
Core Judgment: Atlassian ($TEAM) comprehensive score 55/100, rating Narrative over execution. The business fundamentals are mainly based on external paying customers, and the market cap to revenue multiple is still within a reasonable range.
Atlassian ($TEAM) is listed on NASDAQ, in the SaaS/Collaboration sector. Simply put: Jira + Confluence. Comparable to CRM, MSFT. Business growth relies on order delivery and market share expansion, with the core focus on whether revenue growth and gross margin match capital expenditure intensity. Macroeconomic interest rates and industry prosperity determine the valuation baseline. No involvement in token economics or on-chain settlement logic. Product implementation: officially operational with paid usage, revenue verifiable via SEC 10-Q/10-K filings; financial report data is legally disclosed. Latest version not found, no valid commits found in the past 90 days.
At the user level, MAU and customer numbers are based on 10-Q/10-K. Stock 24h trading volume $5.22M, circulating shares and market cap structure to be confirmed. Core focus on whether revenue growth rate and gross margin align with stock price expectations. Revenue side: operating revenue $6.57B (latest financial report/consensus expectation), gross profit estimated by industry average pending update, net profit to be confirmed by 10-K/10-Q, shareholder returns seen through buybacks and dividends. US-listed companies making money does not equate to token holders profiting; BTC-related stocks like MSTR/COIN require separate separation of BTC unrealized gains. Code side: no valid commits found in 90 days, no active contributors found, latest version not found. GitHub is level A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: Atlassian ($TEAM) is the listed entity, shareholder structure based on 13F/10-K disclosures. Primary partnerships are level A evidence via IR announcements; media mentions and industry conferences are level C/D and not used alone as commercial implementation evidence.
Valuation anchor: circulating market cap $48.20B, valued by P/E, P/S, EV/Revenue, not applicable for token unlocks. BTC-related stocks (MSTR/COIN/MARA) require splitting BTC exposure and core business for revaluation. Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): circulating market cap: Atlassian $48.20B, CRM $210.69B, MSFT $3.81T. FDV: Atlassian undisclosed, CRM $210.69B, MSFT $3.81T. Annual revenue: Atlassian $6.57B, CRM $43.94B, MSFT $331.84B. Monthly active addresses or users: Atlassian undisclosed, CRM undisclosed, MSFT undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official self-reporting or industry standards. Valuation: current market cap $48.20B, P/S (consensus revenue) 7.3x. Cyclical stocks (miners/GPU) use cycle-adjusted P/E. Pessimistic view cuts $48.20B in half, neutral maintains range, optimistic sees P/S expansion of 20-50%. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 55/100). Equity value anchor looks at revenue, net profit, buybacks, and dividends. Circulating market cap is reasonable or undervalued relative to fundamentals, FDV close to MC, no major unlocks, sell pressure controllable. Potential risks: rising macro interest rates pressuring valuation, AI capex investment below expectations, regulatory lawsuits (SEC/DoL). Ongoing focus: revenue growth, gross margin, buyback amounts, order backlog, institutional holdings changes (13F). Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not constituting buy or sell advice. Data deviation over 30% requires revaluation.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #USStocks #Research #OKXOrbit$ZORA demon coin, where do you think you're going~~ Watch how I take you down, haha brothers, this trade just opened a few minutes ago, and I already took it. Let me explain why I shorted it.
Currently, this coin has about 43 million USD in open positions across the network, and the overall long-to-short ratio is actually 6 to 4, meaning 6 out of 10 people are going long. So I think this coin is too heavily weighted, too many retail investors are long, it definitely can't be pushed up.
Also, this coin has only risen about 50 points today, but the funding fee has already gone negative. Like I said before, coins with such funding fees that easily go negative are usually controlled to the extreme by spot market whales. They use spot to pump the price while simultaneously closing out long contracts and opening short contracts on futures, which causes the negative funding fee.
So I shorted it without hesitation. Are there any brothers riding the same train? Are you going long or short? Analysis of the Next Trends for Bitcoin & Ethereum Based on Global Market Conditions
Date: August 31, 2026
1. Current Global Market and Crypto Market Background
Core Macro Changes: After the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains significantly above the 2% target (PCE 3.7%) and stated "there is still work to be done." The market interpreted this hawkishly, with a significant rise in the probability of a rate hike in September, long-term yields rising, and the US dollar strengthening, directly impacting the previous crypto rally logic driven by "Treasury buybacks + liquidity expectations."
2. Technical Structure and Key Levels
Bitcoin
• Short-term resistance: $79,000–$80,000 (a rebound pressure zone if broken below)
• Key support: $76,500–$77,000; deeper support at $75,000–$76,000
• Structure: shifting from a strong breakout to a high-level pullback; confirmation needed whether it stabilizes around $77,000.
Ethereum
• Resistance: $2,500–$2,550
• Support: $2,400–$2,450; deeper support at $2,300–$2,350
• Still above key moving averages, with a relatively better structure than some altcoins.
3. Upcoming Trend Scenarios (Considering Global Markets)
1. Continued Pullback/Sideways Bottoming Scenario (Higher short-term probability)
Global risk appetite cools, yields remain high, ETF inflows slow or turn to outflows:
• BTC may test $76,000–$77,000, possibly dipping to $75,000.
• ETH may fall below $2,400, approaching $2,350.
Trigger: continued US dollar strength, further rise in US Treasury yields, ongoing deleveraging of long positions.
2. High-level Sideways Stabilization Scenario (Neutral main scenario)
After pullback, buying emerges at support levels, institutional funds still provide some floor:
• BTC oscillates repeatedly between $76,500–$79,500.
• ETH consolidates between $2,400–$2,550.
This is a process of digesting overbought conditions and macro shocks, preparing for subsequent directional choices.
3. Rebound and Recovery Scenario (Requires catalyst)
If subsequent inflation data weakens, or the market reassesses the speech as "hawkish in words but actually restrained," combined with renewed ETF net inflows:
• BTC challenges $80,000 again.
• ETH rises above $2,550.
Currently, this scenario has relatively low probability and requires clear signals of macro or capital improvement.
4. Core Drivers and Observation Priorities
1. Macro pricing changes: whether US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and rate hike probabilities continue to rise.
2. Spot ETF capital flows: whether net inflows turn into sustained outflows, key to judging support strength.
3. Global risk appetite: US stock performance, gold trends, reflecting overall "devaluation trades" and risk asset sentiment.
4. Technical confirmation: whether BTC can hold $77,000 and ETH can hold $2,400.
5. Comprehensive Judgment
The hawkish stance at Jackson Hole interrupted the strong rebound previously driven by Treasury liquidity expectations and ETF capital. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a pullback and re-pricing phase after macro shocks. The global market (rising yields, stronger dollar, pressured risk assets) is exerting short-term suppression on crypto.
In the short term, further oscillation or slight dips are more likely to digest overbought conditions and leverage. The mid-term structure is not yet completely broken (previous breakthroughs of key moving averages and institutional allocation logic remain). If stabilization signals appear after a pullback to key supports, there is still a chance for another rise. However, short-term expectations for chasing highs should be lowered, prioritizing observation of support effectiveness and capital flows. $BTC Layer 2: The funding side can't hold — ETF outflows, options expiration
Looking internally again. The Bitcoin spot ETF's streak of 9 consecutive days of net inflows, totaling about $3 billion, abruptly ended last Friday — a single-day net outflow of $201.9 million. ETF trading was suspended over the weekend, cutting off the largest buying support for the recent rally.
Coincidentally, this weekend, Deribit had about 81,700 BTC options expiring, with a notional value of $6.44 billion. A large number of call options with an $80,000 strike price expired worthless. Market makers adjusted their delta hedging positions, further amplifying the selling pressure.
With buying stopped and selling coming in, can the price not fall?
Layer 3: The most alarming signal — the whales are moving
In the past two days, market maker Wintermute transferred 5,100 BTC to Binance, worth about $400 million. Institutional wallets on Coinbase and Kraken also moved large amounts of BTC to unknown addresses.
When whales move coins to exchanges, it usually means only one thing. Although it doesn't necessarily mean a full dump, this signal cannot be ignored. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 BTC maintains a high-level oscillation range between 76000-80500. From the weekly close perspective, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears at the current position.
The focus should still be on the 4-hour and daily charts, especially paying attention to the oscillation position on the 4-hour chart. There are two possibilities:
1. If the oscillation cannot hold above 79000 and fluctuates around the lower boundary of the range, be alert for an accelerated decline;
2. If it holds above 79000 and oscillates around the area above 79000, watch for another upward push.
$BTC $ETH Just recently, the market was still betting on a rate cut in September, but now it has seriously started discussing "whether there will be a rate hike in September." As of August 31, the market pricing for a September rate hike has risen to about 57%–60%, compared to only about 35% before. More importantly, Barclays has even revised its forecast for the rest of the year to include two 25 basis point hikes in September and December.
The trigger behind this is not just Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, but a very real issue: inflation is not falling fast enough.
The latest data shows that the U.S. July PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June; core PCE rose 3.3% year-over-year. There is still a significant gap from the Fed's 2% target.
So now the Fed faces a somewhat awkward situation: employment has started to cool down, but inflation has not fully come down.
July nonfarm payrolls actually decreased by 23,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and an average monthly increase of only 34,000 jobs over the past 12 months. This number is clearly weaker compared to previous increases of hundreds of thousands or even tens of thousands.
ADP also did not give a particularly strong signal, with only 44,000 private sector jobs added in July.
But the problem lies here.
If employment is already this weak, why does the Fed still dare to consider raising rates?
Because the current employment data looks more like a "gradual cooling," not a "sudden stall." The unemployment rate is still only 4.1%, while inflation remains clearly above the 2% target. In other words, the Fed does not see a reason to immediately rescue the economy but sees the risk of inflation picking up again.
Moreover, the latest external environment adds fuel to the fire.
On August 31, Brent crude oil has risen back to around $90, and the escalation of the Iran situation further increases energy price risks. If oil prices remain high, it will be even harder for U.S. inflation to decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.71%, and the 2-year yield has also risen to about 4.33%.
So now I actually think the most important thing ahead is not guessing whether the Fed will raise rates, but seeing if employment data can push back this "rate hike expectation."
On September 1, watch the JOLTS job openings; on September 2, watch ADP; and the real big event is on September 4—the August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate.
The market currently expects August nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 50,000 to 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.1%.
If the actual data is significantly below expectations, such as employment showing negative growth again and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% or even higher, then the nearly 60% probability of a rate hike will likely fall quickly.
But if nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations again and wage growth does not cool significantly, then it will be a completely different story.
At that time, a September rate hike will no longer be just "talk," but a real policy option on the table.
This is also what I am most focused on now.
BTC has recently fallen from near $81,300 on August 28 to about $77,700 on August 31, and gold also declined today, indicating that after rate hike expectations have warmed again, high-volatility assets have started to feel the pressure.
So next, don't immediately think "rate cuts are coming" just because of a poor employment report, nor should you short immediately just because of a good report.
What truly determines the direction in September is whether employment, wages, inflation, and oil prices can simultaneously give the Fed an answer.
Personally, I now lean toward: short-term risks have not been fully released, especially before the nonfarm payroll release, BTC, gold, and U.S. stocks are prone to significant expectation gap moves.
This time, what’s really worth watching is not the Fed’s next words, but the employment report on September 4.
Because the market has already priced in "rate hikes" in advance.
If employment data does not cooperate, this expectation could be sharply pushed back; if employment remains resilient, then the September trend might really change.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Here's a potentially controversial opinion: The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. The current 60% probability of a rate hike is a false impression created by "Wash's mouth rate hike".
From a technical perspective, the 2-year US Treasury yield has risen from 4.22 to 4.35, fully pricing in one rate hike. But the actual economic data does not support a rate hike: July's PCE has already declined, the job market is cooling down, and tech companies continue to lay off employees.
Wash said at Jackson Hole that "there is still work to be done," but this is standard hawkish rhetoric, not a commitment to action. Historically, the Fed rarely raises rates when the market pricing is below 70%, and 60% is an awkward position.
If there is no rate hike in September, it will be a "surprise" event, and BTC will jump directly from 78,000 to 82,000. Technically, the 77,000 support is solid, and the 4-hour MACD shows a bullish divergence, so an outbreak could happen at any time.
What do you think about the rate hike in September? I bet there won't be one.
$BTC #FederalReserve #RateHikeAs interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin couldn't hold up first.
$BTC TC has dropped all the way down from around 81,000 to now about 77,000, the cooling speed is indeed quite fast.
But honestly, this level is not yet a blind buy zone; it looks more like a quick pullback after breaking the previous high.
Today's decline is mainly due to continued ETF fund outflows.
On the 9th, the single-day net outflow exceeded 2.6 billion USD, another large-scale capital withdrawal after the wave on 8/28, which is the main reason for the market pressure, not just a simple technical correction.
Below, first watch if the support around 77k can hold.
If it continues to drop, 75k and 74k will be stronger support zones. After all, this round of rally involved a lot of leveraged funds, and if funds keep flowing out, the correction magnitude might be amplified.
However, one point worth noting: spot volatility hasn't completely deteriorated.
The 24-hour trading volume so far isn't particularly exaggerated, indicating that the market is still mainly influenced by ETF funds and leveraged positions, and it hasn't reached a stage of true panic selling.
My judgment is: before the rate hike in September is finalized, the market may remain volatile, so don't chase highs lightly.
I've already reduced some positions earlier to secure some profits, and will watch if the support levels can hold for the rest.
What do you think? Is this a normal correction or a signal before the previous high tops out?
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Data as of 13:35. BTC's 24-hour price change is close to zero, but the number of falling coins is still close to three times that of rising coins. There are still 289 coins declining in the market, and ETH and OKB have not caught up with BTC. Market pressure is easing, but funds have not yet fully flowed back to assets with higher risk. Trading is mainly concentrated in SOL, XRP, ZEC, HYPE, DOGE, with five coins totaling about 282 million USDT. Only ZEC barely turned positive, while the other four fell by about 2%–2.5%. The direction of high-volume assets remains weak, with prices just beginning to recover from their lows. $BTC｜78,061.1 USDT｜-0.09%。 In 24 hours, it traded between 77,000.0 and 79,401.4, with a turnover of about 297 million USDT. The current price is about 44% of the intraday range, having rebounded about 1.38% from the low. BTC is close to flat, having also left the lowest area, but has not yet returned to the upper half of the range $ETH｜2,436.51 USDT｜-0.78%。 The 24-hour high was 2,535, the low was 2,388, with a turnover of about 278 million USDT. The current low point rebounded about 2.03%, hovering around 33% of the intraday range. ETH has support, but is still weaker than BTC, so market risk appetite is not currently tilted toward it $OKB｜111.42Intensive Employment Data Releases Put Walsh's Policy Stance to a Real Test
What truly matters this week is no longer what Walsh said at Jackson Hole, but whether the employment data can validate his hawkish judgment.
Walsh's statement last week was very clear: he believes the overall U.S. economy remains resilient, the labor market is near full employment, and inflation remains the primary issue. If underlying inflation does not return to 2% fast enough, the Fed "still has work to do." After his speech, the market's pricing for a September rate hike surged from about 35% to nearly 60%. 
Now, the ball is truly in the employment data's court.
This employment data will decide whether the hawkish stance can continue.
A series of employment indicators will be released this week, culminating with the U.S. August nonfarm payroll report on September 4. The market currently expects August nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 50,000–60,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady around 4.1%. 
July's data already sounded an alarm for the Fed:
Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July.
So the market faces a very interesting contradiction:
Walsh says the economy is resilient, but the employment data is telling the market the labor market might not be as strong as imagined.
This is the biggest game this week.
If employment remains strong
For example:
Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations + unemployment rate declines + wages remain robust
Then Walsh's logic will be validated:
Strong employment → resilient economy → Fed has room to continue suppressing inflation → probability of a September rate hike rises.
In this case, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may rise further.
For BTC, this is troublesome:
Rising rate hike expectations → declining liquidity expectations → pressure on high-valuation risk assets.
Especially since BTC is currently at a high level, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting; if macro expectations turn more hawkish, volatility is likely to amplify.
But if employment weakens significantly
The situation is completely different.
If:
Nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations + unemployment rate rises + wage growth cools
Then the market will start reconsidering:
Should the Fed prioritize tackling inflation, or begin considering employment risks?
This would directly weaken Walsh's current hawkish framework.
Because although Walsh emphasizes inflation, the Fed does not focus solely on inflation.
If the labor market suddenly deteriorates significantly, the rationale for a September rate hike will be challenged.
At that point, we might see:
Weakening employment → declining rate hike expectations → falling Treasury yields → weaker dollar → support for BTC and gold.
So the most important thing this week is not a single data point.
I interpret it as a "data combination validation."
Particularly focusing on:
Employment numbers
Unemployment rate
Average hourly earnings
Revisions to previous data
If these four data points point in the same direction, the market is more likely to form a new consensus.
The most worrisome scenario is:
Nonfarm payrolls look decent, but previous data is sharply revised down and unemployment rises.
Such data easily causes intense market tug-of-war because it supports both narratives: "the economy remains resilient" and "employment is cooling."
For BTC, I am more focused on "how the market trades after the data comes out."
September rate hike expectations have already been repriced, but Walsh deliberately refuses to give clear forward guidance; he emphasizes judging based on data rather than committing to a predetermined rate path. 
So the real trading chain is:
Employment data → September rate hike probability → 2-year Treasury yields → dollar → BTC
If nonfarm payrolls are strong but BTC only briefly dips before quickly recovering, it suggests the market may have already priced in hawkish risks.
If strong nonfarm payrolls also bring:
2Y yields surging + dollar strengthening + BTC breaking key support
Then heightened caution for a high-level correction is warranted.
Conversely, if employment weakens significantly, September rate hike expectations drop quickly, and BTC can reclaim key levels, then previous macro pressure may quickly ease.
In short: Jackson Hole was just Walsh's "policy stance statement," but this week's employment data is the first real test of this policy logic. The stronger the employment, the more confident Walsh is to keep focusing on inflation; the weaker the employment, the more the market will question a September rate hike. For BTC, the real focus this week is not the nonfarm payrolls themselves, but whether they can change the market's original interest rate expectations. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 This week brings JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims and Aug payrolls, making labor data key for September policy pricing. July payrolls fell 23K and May-June were revised down 103K, signaling softer hiring. At Jackson Hole, Walsh said inflation remains above 2%, conditions are not restrictive and policy should prioritize price stability. September hike odds briefly rose from ~35% to nearly 60%, lifting yields and pressuring gold and BTC. The data will define room for his anti-inflation stance#LaborMarkeToday the overall market poured cold water on this sector.
The total market cap dropped 3% in 24 hours, and the top 12 protocols all uniformly gave back their 1-day gains, with declines ranging from 0.34% to 1.41%. The leading on-chain lending platform fell 0.86%, staking dropped 1.39%, and even Binance's usually stable staked Ethereum fell 1.41%. Wrapped assets slightly declined by 0.37%, and traditional brokerage on-chain businesses also fell 0.97%, with no segment in the entire chain holding up.
But when viewed from a 7-day perspective, the capital flow looks promising: Binance's centralized exchange rose 7.37% this week, the only one among these 12 to show a clear increase, and compliant exchange cross-chain bridges also rose 3.33%. The comparison makes it clear that funds haven't left this sector; they've just moved from on-chain back to centralized exchanges.
When the total market cap is declining, on-chain inactivity is normal; the key is whether funds have truly left or just returned to exchanges.U.S. employment data is coming, and the September rate cut expectations may face a real "stress test"
Don't just focus on what the Federal Reserve says these days; what could really cause the market to suddenly turn is the upcoming U.S. employment data.
Because the situation now is different. Previously, the market was trading on "weaker employment → September rate cut," but as of August 31, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting, expectations for a September rate hike have clearly increased. The latest market pricing shows the probability of a September rate hike has quickly risen from about 35% to nearly 60%.
More importantly, Walsh is no longer prioritizing employment but has put inflation back in the spotlight. He clearly emphasized that the 2% PCE inflation target is fixed, while the current year-over-year PCE is still as high as 3.7%, and core PCE is 3.3%, which is still significantly above 2%.
So the upcoming employment data sets are very important.
On September 1, the U.S. will release the July JOLTS job openings; on September 4, the August nonfarm payroll report will be published, with other employment indicators like ADP in between.
Some signs of cooling employment are already visible.
In July, U.S. nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. More notably, May and June nonfarm employment were significantly revised down by a total of 103,000, indicating that the previously observed employment strength was not as strong as imagined.
ADP data is also weak. In July, private sector employment increased by only 44,000, and the four-week average employment increase as of August 8 was just 11,750, clearly lower than levels from a few months ago.
But there is an easily overlooked issue here: cooling employment does not mean the U.S. economy has entered a recession.
As of August 22, initial jobless claims were only 203,000, with a four-week average of 205,500, still relatively low. Walsh also specifically mentioned in his Jackson Hole speech that the 4.1% unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market overall is closer to "full employment" rather than rapidly deteriorating.
This creates the most troublesome combination now:
Employment is slowly cooling, but inflation has not cooled enough to reassure the Federal Reserve.
This is why I believe we cannot simply interpret the market as "bad nonfarm = rate cut, good nonfarm = rate hike" going forward.
If August nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations and the unemployment rate rises, then September rate hike expectations will likely cool quickly, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may fall back, and gold, BTC, and high-valuation tech assets might get a breather.
But if employment data does not worsen significantly, and wages and employment show resilience again, then the nearly 60% probability of a September rate hike still has room to rise. Especially with PCE already at 3.7%, the Federal Reserve has little reason to rush to ease just because employment is cooling.
Personally, I now tend to see September as a "data showdown" rather than an early bet on a rate cut.
What really matters is not a single number but whether employment, wages, and inflation can all move down together.
If only employment weakens but inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve will be in a tough spot; if both employment and inflation cool together, the rate cut logic will regain the upper hand.
So the biggest risk for the market this week is not that the data is too good or too bad, but that the data deviates significantly from current market expectations.
This is especially important for BTC. Now that the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have regained support due to rising rate hike expectations, it is not surprising that risk assets are under short-term pressure.
My judgment is: the real direction in September is likely not decided by a single statement from Walsh but by the upcoming "report cards" of employment.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $CORE was attacked, 200 million core were transferred out, the coin price plummeted, and the project team only discovered it after three days. What kind of amateur team is this? Anthropic plans to submit its S-1 prospectus on September 7, with the core conflict revolving around the erosion of actual gross profit by the high computing power costs behind the $8 billion and $2 billion cloud giant investments.
Amazon's committed $8 billion and Google's committed $2 billion investments are tied to multi-year, tens-of-billions-level computing power procurement contracts. Cloud providers act as both financiers and suppliers, locking in the lower bound of computing power procurement costs.
The computing power bill is squeezing valuation space through risk appetite. When computing power costs consume revenue, the concentration of positions in AI high-valuation targets in primary and secondary markets will face severe repricing risk.
The upside scenario requires commercialization growth to outpace computing power expenditure and gross margin to be proven on an upward trajectory. If the S-1 shows a model service revenue gross margin above 50%, market risk appetite for $ANTHROPIC will be re-supported. A failure signal for this scenario is an overly high concentration of the top five customers, indicating a single monetization channel.
The downside scenario is characterized by computing power costs occupying the vast majority of gross profit, and the current cash burn rate being unable to support breakeven within three years. Under these conditions, funds heavily invested in tech stocks will reduce risk exposure, and liquidity tightening transmission may simultaneously drag down high-beta risk assets like $BTC. A failure signal for this scenario is cloud providers granting significant computing power discounts.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the revenue gross margin and cash burn rate disclosed in the September 7 S-1 prospectus.
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解$BTC has returned to a very interesting position today. The spot price is currently around $77,778, down only about 0.5% in 24 hours, ranging between $77,000 and $79,400. Looking at the price alone, this is normal fluctuation. But when you look at the entire market's trading volume, the situation is different: the total market 24H trading volume has surged about 55% compared to the previous period. The price hasn't moved far, but the money is suddenly moving very aggressively. This usually is not a "quiet sideways" market. What I want to know most now is not whether $BTC can immediately retake $80,000. Rather: with such large volume, who exactly is selling, and who is buying? Because volume itself has no direction. Behind every sell order, there is a buy order. What really matters is, after volume expands, which direction the price ultimately moves. Currently, the market sentiment index is still at 74, in the greed zone. This means the market is not truly panicking. At this time, those who have already profited have the motivation to take profits, while those still bullish are willing to buy. Two waves of capital are colliding. If I were a large investor, I would pay special attention to this kind of position. Because real large-scale position changes rarely happen when there is no trading. The market still has heat, people still believe in the rise, and volume is active enough, so chips can be exchanged quickly. Therefore, the fact that $BTC has not sharply dropped now cannot be directly interpreted as "strong support below." It could also be: the sell orders are being absorbed, so the price temporarily cannot fall further. Conversely Every time a bull market comes, someone always shouts, "This time it's different," talking about institutional entry, regulatory compliance, new narratives.
I've believed it twice, but every time the peak winds were especially cold, cold enough to sober me up.
Later I realized, there's really nothing new under the sun; prices rise a lot then fall, fall hard then rise, the pattern is very rigid.
Those who keep mentioning the "new paradigm" are either new retail investors or trying to sell you something.
I have a method: I go back to posts from three years ago to see where the "eternal bull market" from back then is now.
After reading them, all FOMO disappears, and I honestly follow my own pace.
When market sentiment is hottest, I find opening my account too hot to handle, so I just hide the app in the deepest folder.
When no one in the group is talking, not even cursing, I sneak out to take a quick look.
The buy orders I place at this time usually don't disappoint me.
I don't expect to buy at the lowest point, just to buy in the area where most people are desperate, which greatly increases my odds.
Selling is the same; I don't expect to sell at the highest point, just to sell when everyone starts shouting "new paradigm" again.
This trick is crude, but more effective than any technical indicator because it counters human nature.
Human nature in crypto never changes; the pendulum of greed and fear swings back and forth, and I wait at both ends of the pendulum.
The middle part jumping up and down has nothing to do with me, and I can't catch it either.
So now I only care about two things: whether everyone is greedy or fearful now, and whether my position in $BTC is low enough.
As for the news, policies, and big shots' speeches in the middle, I just treat them as background music.
No matter how lively the music is, it doesn't affect my placed orders; if the price hits, the order executes, if not, forget it.
Recently there was a sharp drop, and the group was crying and complaining; I followed my plan and added a position in $ETH.
After adding, I didn't check; a week later I looked again, it had bounced back quite a bit, so I sold some in batches.
The profit wasn't much, but the whole process was reassuring, without any hesitation.
This is why "responding" is better than "predicting"; you can never guess tomorrow, but you can prepare for the day after tomorrow.
Now I open the exchange less than five times a day, each time no more than two minutes.
I glance at the price, confirm if my orders have executed, then close it, not leaving an extra second.
The time saved is used for reading, exercising, and spending time with family; those things yield much better returns than candlestick charts.
Honestly, every minute you spend watching the market is a tax on your attention that the market takes for free.
I refuse to pay that tax anymore; whoever wants to pay it can go ahead.
Anyway, the pendulum is still swinging; I stay where I should be, neither fighting nor scrambling.
When the pendulum swings to an extreme next time, I'll make a move; otherwise, I just play dead.
Playing dead is an art; once mastered, it's more stable than trading every day.
Today the pendulum is near the middle; I have nothing to do, so I might as well go downstairs for a few laps.
After running, the price will probably still be the same, but my cardiopulmonary function is a bit stronger.
This trading, no matter how you calculate it, is not a loss.$BTC Night raid on Hormuz, the bulls got schooled again
Last night the US military took action on the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin directly dropped below 77,000, with 180 million liquidated in 1 hour, longs accounted for 96%
This script has been played many times, rumors of Iran closing the strait in 2025 caused 150 million liquidations; Israel attacking Iran caused 230 million liquidations. Yesterday's 180 million is not even new, more like copy-paste. What amazes me is that every time people rush in as if this time is different. But once the war starts, all the bulls lie down. $ETH
Once Hormuz is hit, oil prices will rise, inflation expectations will increase, no chance of rate cuts, liquidity tightens, and the first to get drained are volatile markets like ours. But every time at such a juncture, the comment section is full of bottom-fishing, then when liquidation data comes out, everyone goes silent again $SOL
But to be fair, 180 million is not that big for this theme, even milder than the previous two times. The key is how Iran responds next. If it just ends like this, then it's just a pin action, drop and done; if it escalates, the air force might still be on the way #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 🚨 Breaking｜Kharg Island "bombed" has not been confirmed yet
Fact update: The so-called footage of Kharg Island being bombed previously released by Donald Trump has been confirmed as an AI-generated video; so far, neither the US military nor Iran has confirmed an actual attack on Kharg oil facilities.
Market reaction: Brent remains near $90, but the current oil price risk premium mainly comes from US attacks on Larak, Iranian retaliation, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, rather than the destruction of Kharg supply facilities.
Impact chain: Kharg attack unconfirmed → extreme supply disruption risk decreases → further crude price surge requires new catalysts → inflation/US debt pressure marginally reduced → gold, US stocks, and BTC are again more influenced by the Fed and yields.
My judgment: Do not trade on the narrative that "Kharg has been bombed." The real main storyline currently remains the Strait of Hormuz shipping risk + Fed hawkishness The flow of funds in the cryptocurrency market has recently shown a picture worth taking a closer look at. After nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs suddenly saw a net outflow of about $201.9 million on August 28. Those nine days of strong accumulation brought over $3 billion in capital to the market, so this shift naturally prompted many to reassess the current situation. But interestingly, capital has not left the crypto world as expected. During the same period, Ethereum's spot ETF continued to attract institutional capital, and XRP recorded the largest weekly ETF inflow since 2026. This may indicate that what we see is not "money leaving," but more like "money changing direction." Bitcoin remains the most significant institutional asset in the entire crypto market, and this has not changed. However, the latest funding data reminds us that institutional demand is never one-way. A single negative net outflow does not necessarily mean a trend reversal; institutions may be taking profits at high levels or adjusting positions after a strong rally. However, it is worth noting that this timing is somewhat subtle—Bitcoin previously encountered resistance around the $80,000 area and is now fluctuating back near $77,000. When prices consolidate and ETF flows weaken, the next few trading days become especially critical. In contrast, the signals sent by Ethereum are more persistent. Since August 11, Ethereum spot ETFs have maintained positive inflows, maintaining this continuityOver the weekend, $BTC pulled up to 79300 and then continued to decline, essentially a false breakout caused by low liquidity: institutions and market makers left the market over the weekend, and the order book depth was 30%–40% thinner than on weekdays. A small amount of capital could push the price to resistance levels, creating a "breakout" illusion, but lacking real buying support#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults 🇨🇳 Interest rate hike expectations heat up, Bitcoin takes the brunt!
$BTC quickly fell back from the previous high of $81K, once dropping to around $77K.
Now is not the time to "blindly buy the dip," and the reason is simple:
📉 ETF funds have reversed for the first time.
The previous record of about $2.6B net inflow over 9 consecutive trading days was broken on August 28, with BTC spot ETF seeing a single-day net outflow of about $201.8M.
🔥 Interest rate hike expectations + weakening ETF funds have become significant pressure for this rapid BTC pullback.
Next, the focus is on whether $77K–$78K can hold and if ETF funds will flow back.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelationTuesday's JOLTS is only a probe; Friday's non-farm payrolls will determine the nature of this BTC retracement.
July's non-farm payrolls have already decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months were revised down by a total of 103,000. Now, seeing weak employment again, the market may not only trade on easing but might also start worrying about growth.
BTC is near 77,969 on the 4-hour chart, pressured below the EMA20 at 78,231. I tend to treat it as a weak consolidation first: if employment softens but volume increases to reclaim 78,231, then look towards 81,520; if the data is weak but it breaks below 76,847, it indicates that the "weak employment is bullish" thesis has failed. The S&P on the right side is only considered as a risk appetite background; if US stocks also fall, don't insist on liquidity being bullish.
$BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
For information organization and personal views only, not investment advice.$UNI Value Rebound: Deflationary Logic is Reshaping Valuation
$UNI surged over 16% today, returning to $5. Behind this volatility, the fundamentals have undergone a fundamental change.
The most critical turning point is the direct linkage between protocol revenue and token value. Since the protocol fee mechanism was launched at the end of last year, part of the fees has entered the on-chain burn process. About 4.64 million UNI have been permanently burned in the past 90 days, and with the advancement of the v4 version and multi-chain deployment, the scope of fee capture continues to expand.
Incremental capital is also worth noting. Tokenized stock trading has exploded, with Uniswap's weekly trading volume increasing by about $325 million; Robinhood Chain has been online for less than two months, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $20 billion. This migration of external assets brings real traffic, rather than internal DeFi circulation.
The larger the trading volume, the faster the burn, the tighter the supply—a clear deflationary model is taking shape. Once the DeFi market restarts, UNI, which has fundamental support, deep liquidity, and scarcity expectations, will be easier to attract capital inflows than pure concept tokens. The same old face, but the core is already different. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks combined with escalating Middle East tensions have led the market to reprice "high interest rates + high oil prices," putting pressure on Nasdaq futures, with Asian chip stocks leading the sharp decline.
Currently, I am more bearish on semiconductors, focusing on SOXL. Do not short directly; wait until the US stock market opens. If the rebound fails to reclaim last Friday's high, consider shorting or going long on SOXS during the bounce; place the invalidation point above the previous high, with the first target at last week's low.Anomalous phenomenon: BTC-ETF experiences phased outflows, while ETH-ETF maintains net inflows against the trend
After the hawkish plunge at Jackson Hole, an interesting capital divergence emerged: BTC spot ETFs saw single-day capital outflows, whereas ETH-ETFs maintained continuous net inflows, with BlackRock ETHA as the main buyer.
Many wonder why institutional funds are entering ETH amid a macro bearish environment?
Breaking down two types of capital attributes
In $BTC-ETF, there is a mix of many swing trading institutions. Once the Federal Reserve signals hawkishness, this portion of capital quickly takes profits and exits, causing outflows on big down days; however, large long-term pension positions have not been massively sold off.
The new funds in $ETH-ETF are for phased accumulation on pullbacks, betting on two expectations: ① subsequent staking ETFs bringing allocation dividends; ② a high-beta ETH catch-up rally after future rate cuts.
But this capital is risk appetite-driven and less stable.
Historical data repeatedly confirms: ETH-ETFs often have continuous inflows for multiple days, but if the market weakens further, concentrated redemptions occur. In other words, "buy the dip, but run if it dips further."
The market outcome is: spot institutions are accumulating ETH on dips, but derivatives market leveraged longs are continuously liquidated.
Spot is buying, contract funds dare not enter, resulting in a "decline with support, rebound without strength" frustrating oscillation.
Key observation going forward: if ETH-ETF shifts from continuous inflows to continuous outflows, it indicates the confidence of these dip-buying institutions has collapsed Today's $ETH is around $2,420, with a 24-hour range of approximately $2,395–$2,531. It has risen steadily from about $1,916 on August 18, marking a significant phase gain; however, after pulling back from the high of $2,511 on August 27, ETH has clearly entered a period of high-level turnover. So the most interesting question now is not "Can ETH still rise?" but rather: Has ETH this time truly transformed from a trading asset back into a portfolio asset in the eyes of institutions? I believe some signals have already appeared. First is the ETF. In the past week, the US spot ETH ETF saw net inflows of about $697M, marking one of the strongest weeks since 2026; earlier single-day data also showed very clear net inflows into ETH ETFs. The importance of this is: Previously, ETH's rise largely depended on internal crypto market funds. Now, if ETFs continue to absorb funds, it means some capital is gaining ETH exposure directly through traditional financial accounts. This will change the logic behind ETH's price increase. Because institutions won't go all-in just because of a big bullish candle like retail investors; they care more about liquidity, regulation, custody, sources of yield, and long-term asset allocation value. And ETH is precisely in the process of gradually fulfilling these aspects. The second change is that ETH is increasingly becoming the "on-chain financial infrastructure." You see, what is truly important on Ethereum now is no longer the NFTs from a few years ago.One year ago at this time, the market was still betting with a 99.3% probability on a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
And now?
CME shows the probability of two rate hikes this year exceeds 50%.
It took only one "Warsh era" to shift from a consensus on rate cuts to a consensus on rate hikes.
Before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, three forces are making their final moves.
🔥 First force: The rate hike camp (CME + BNP Paribas + 3 FOMC members)
Latest data from CME "FedWatch": Probability of holding rates steady in September is 43.1%, cumulative 25 basis point hike probability is 56.9%.
Probability that the Fed holds rates steady until October is 29.3%, cumulative 25 basis point hike probability is 52.5%, cumulative 50 basis point hike probability is 18.3%.
September rate hike probability surged from 39.9% on August 21 to 57%.
In July's FOMC, 3 members already supported a 25bp hike. Internal divisions are widening.
BNP Paribas expects three consecutive hikes starting in December.
This is not speculation; the market is betting with real money.
❄️ Second force: The hold steady camp (4 smart money addresses on Polymarket)
On Polymarket, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September is 52%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 48%, with contract trading volume exceeding $66.6 million.
Note a detail: 4 addresses invested $105,400 betting on "no rate ceiling increase after September," with an average buy-in probability of 58.9%, lower than the current market price of 63.5%.
At the peak of rate hike expectations, they are betting against the trend to hold steady.
This is not gambling. This is smart money trading against CME.
🏛️ Third force: Political intervention camp (Trump's camp)
On Wednesday, Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House and again urged the Fed to cut rates as soon as possible, saying the interest costs borne by the U.S. are too high.
He insisted that even strong economic data should not prevent the central bank from adopting a more accommodative policy stance.
Every 1 percentage point rate cut equates to about $600 billion in reduced costs for the U.S.
Trump's rate cut rhetoric, combined with smart money bets on Polymarket, forms a rare long-short showdown.
Key variables:
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls: Expected increase of 55,000 jobs, unemployment rate 4.1%. Analyst Anna Wong said Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole increased the likelihood of a September hike, and the weak August payrolls may not be as decisive as usual.
Next Wednesday's CPI: August inflation data, Goldman Sachs expects core CPI month-over-month increase around 0.2%.
ISM data: Tuesday manufacturing and Thursday services "price paid index" — more likely to affect Warsh's nerves than Nonfarm Payrolls.
Current crypto market status:
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $77,000 after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, a short-term decline of 3%.
The August 29 speech triggered $487 million in crypto asset liquidations, affecting 97,691 traders.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $78,000.
Rate hike expectations suppress risk appetite. U.S. Treasury yields rise, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
One year ago, everyone was betting on rate cuts. What happened?
Now everyone is betting on rate hikes — are you really sure this time is different?
Before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, these three forces will have their final showdown.
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls will reveal the truth. $BTC $ETH $XAU #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 On August 30, Cronos validators froze the entire blockchain. Fogo did the same thing 24 hours earlier. A week earlier, Cosmos Labs sent an urgent notice to all chains running Cosmos EVM modules: either upgrade or shutdown. Three different attack paths, three different networks, yet they all point to the same ultimate solution: chain shutdown. This may be one of the most thought-provoking questions for the crypto industry in 2026: When a real crisis arrives, why does a so-called "decentralized" public chain still have to rely on a group of validators to "unplug the network"? 1. Cronos: In 20 minutes, Tectonic, the largest lending protocol on $75 million on Cronos, was attacked. The attacker targeted the extremely illiquid governance token TONIC. The tactic is not new: price inflated → creating inflated collateral → lending real assets. Within about 20 minutes, the attacker pushed TONIC's price up about 100 times, then used the inflated tokens as collateral to borrow assets like cbBTC, USDC, and WETH from lending pools. On-chain researchers estimated the potential borrowing scale to be about $75 million. But Cronos validators reacted very quickly. When the entire chain was frozen, the attacker only had about $6 million transferred to Ethereum via the cross-chain bridge, while the remaining $60 million was stuck on chains that had stopped producing blocks. This was a successful stop-loss move. But#就业数据密集公布, Wash's policy stance is put to the test. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Walsh made his hawkish debut, setting the tone for the recent market: curbing inflation comes first, and monetary policy is unlikely to be accommodative. After the speech, expectations for a rate hike in September soared from 35% to nearly 60%. US Treasury yields rose, BTC followed with a sharp pullback, quickly dropping from above 80,000 to test the low near 76,900, intensifying market volatility. This week will see a round of intensive employment indicators: JOLTS job openings, ADP small nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payroll data released one after another. This set of employment data will become the most important pricing benchmark for Fed policy expectations in September. Looking back at previous figures, July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, while May and June employment data were sharply revised downward, totaling 103,000, signaling a cooling labor market. But Walsh's statement breaks simple logic: even if employment weakens, as long as inflation does not clearly fall back to the 2% target, the Fed will not easily switch to easing. The current financial environment is still not tight, and anti-inflation remains the policy focus. The key points for the upcoming market are very clear: ✅ Strong employment data: economic resilience is sufficient, inflation rebound risks are rising, rate hike expectations are further strengthening, risk assets are under pressure, BTC is likely to continue weak and volatile markets; ✅ Employment data is significantly weaker: Labor force cooling is confirmed, limiting Walsh's hawkish stance. Rate hike expectations are declining, which may trigger a recovery rebound. The short-term market is in a macro-sensitive window, with prices likely to fluctuate back and forth with data expectations, at 7767Robinhood Chain's performance over the past two months has actually provided a very clear direction for other public chains.
The imagination for permissionless asset issuance. Not relying on airdrops and point-based competition, but letting the market decide what to issue and trade. Issuing new assets + distributing mature assets might be the next phase worth focusing on for public chains.
Every new type of asset issuance method has driven the birth of a bull market:
1. 2017 — ICOs dominated by Ethereum;
2. 2020 — IDOs dominated by DeFi;
3. 2023 — the inscription movement born on the Bitcoin chain.
If the Robinhood ecosystem continues to expand, the first to benefit may not be the projects best at storytelling, but those protocols that can get capital flowing and make new asset issuance and trading easier.
There are only two targets, which are $PONS and $UNI In the same market, $SOL and $DOGE have taken completely opposite paths, while $BTC quietly consolidates around 78,000. This divergence is more intriguing than a one-sided market.📊
I still hold $SOL, which I bought at $76, currently with an unrealized profit of about $5,000. Looking back at August, SOL rose a total of 46.9%, while DOGE dropped 7.2% this week. Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to 81,000 at the beginning of the month, an increase of over 20%, but has barely moved this week.
Capital is quietly shifting—from meme coins to mainstream public chains. When traditional financial institutions like Charles Schwab enter the market, they choose SOL over DOGE, which is more tangible than any candlestick signal. Institutional preferences often indicate longer-term pricing logic.
It is worth noting that Wash recently emphasized inflation risks, and market expectations for a September rate hike are heating up. With macro variables and sector rotation combined, the divergent market may continue. Holders need to be more patient and also beware of high-level volatility.⚠️
Risk warning: The crypto market is highly volatile. This article does not constitute investment advice; please make decisions rationally. Institutional funds are reshaping the boundaries of the crypto market, and this is no longer a narrative dominated by a single asset. The latest developments show that Charles Schwab's crypto platform is expected to open broader channels for SOL, AVAX, and LINK, having already earned the trust of millions of investors. This means that, following Bitcoin and Ethereum, more digital assets are gradually entering the traditional financial landscape.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs recorded positive capital inflows on August 27, with BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP all favored by the market. These two factors combined outline a clear trajectory: traditional finance's acceptance is shifting from tentative observation to systematic deployment. Capital is no longer entering sporadically but with scale and institutional posture.
However, this expansion is not without cost. The influx of diverse assets enriches allocation dimensions but also amplifies sources of volatility—different tokens vary in liquidity, regulatory status, and market depth, making the rhythm of capital flows potentially more uneven. For investors, opportunities and noise often coexist; the key lies in discerning which are the underlying trends and which are merely transient ripples.
The market structure is quietly evolving, requiring observers to exercise more patience and composure. Risk reminder: This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Please rationally assess your own risk tolerance. HYPE has $800 million unlocking, but I won't short directly
HYPE has an upcoming unlock of about 9.92M tokens, but I won't short just because of the headline "$800 million unlocking."
The mainstream market view is simple: on September 6, core contributors unlock tokens, supply suddenly increases, and HYPE is likely to be dumped.
My judgment is different: what really determines selling pressure is not "how much unlocks," but "how much is actually claimed and sold."
Tokenomist shows that the next unlock on September 6 is indeed for core contributors, about 9.92M HYPE. At the current price of about $80, the nominal value is close to $800 million.
Sounds scary, but in the previous similar batch, the plan in March was also 9.92M, and the actual claimed amount was only about 173,000 tokens, which is about 1.75%.
So, "9.92M unlocking" should never be directly equated with "9.92M immediately dumped."
On the other hand, Hyperliquid itself still has ongoing buyback demand. Public statistics show that since the end of 2024, the cumulative buyback scale of HYPE has been quite considerable.
Currently, with HYPE around $80, my plan is simple:
If it falls below 78 and actual claims significantly increase, I turn cautious;
If it holds between 78–80 and claim volume remains low, I won't chase shorts;
If it climbs back to 83–85, I will consider the market is digesting the unlock expectations.
What really matters this time is not the headline number 9.92M, but how many tokens truly become sellable after September 6 Trump announced he had acquired a majority control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil, claiming to be the largest oil deal in history. The market reacted restrainedly because Venezuela's infrastructure is aging, oil facilities require billions of dollars, and it will take years to restore capacity. Short-term production increases are unrealistic. This is futures, not spot. The market is pricing current supply and demand, not capacity ten years from now. $CL on the board: CL is trading sideways around 84.47. MACD zero axis is weak, KDJ is neutral to strong. Direction unclear, but liquidity is the key. The second largest short seller on the chain is today on the 9th :01 Admit a loss and close out a short position at $140,000. Ten minutes later, open a long position of $5.51 million on the reverse trade at 85.19. This veteran, with cumulative profits of $246,000, directly tells you that the bears are starting to feel nervous at this level. Looking at the liquidation map, the strength of both long and short liquidations is balanced near 85.5. The upper resistance is 86.5. If it breaks out, look for 87.66 to 88.73. Below, 84.34 is intraday support. If it fails, it will pull back to 82 to 83. Strategy: Try going long near 85. Target is 85.5 to 86.5. If it falls below 84.5, reverse for short selling Targets 83.5 to 82.4 Whales have already voted with real money. Do you believe the story or your position? #Intensive employment data releases, Warsh's policy stance tested #BTC高位震荡, enhanced synergy with gold #财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns tested again $BTC $ETH #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解
Many people look at ETH and only focus on one thing:
ETH/BTC.
But I believe what we should really look at is whether ETH has become the “second choice” in institutional allocations.
Currently, ETH’s market cap is close to $300 billion, with a market share of about 11%. Recently, there has been a significant inflow of funds into the US spot ETH ETFs, with related products absorbing about $185 million in a single day on August 21.
This actually signifies a change.
In the past, when institutions entered the crypto market, the first step was to buy BTC.
Now, more and more capital is asking:
Besides BTC, is there a second asset that truly has network effects, asset scale, and an application ecosystem?
The answer is still highly concentrated on ETH.
So the biggest logic behind ETH is not a “catch-up rally.”
A catch-up rally means the market ends once the rally ends.
ETH is now trying to complete an identity upgrade:
From the “second largest cryptocurrency” to the “second institutional-grade digital asset.”
If this identity is truly established, ETH’s future valuation method may no longer just follow BTC’s ups and downs but will have its own capital cycle.从链上数据来看，比特币在83000至86000美元区间积累了约103万枚的潜在抛压，这些筹码主要来自上一轮周期的长期持有者。对于这部分群体而言，价格若能重新回到该区域，便意味着接近回本或小幅盈利，因此他们选择在反弹途中分批了结的可能性较高，这也就形成了上方一道实打实的供给墙。 当前盘面若要延续升势，现货端必须展现出足够的承接力，否则价格很容易在触及该区间时被反复压制。与此同时，合约市场的空头持仓也是推动价格上涨的重要变量——只有出现较大规模的空头被迫平仓，形成强制买入力量，价格才有望在现货接筹的同时获得额外动能。换句话说，这轮行情的持续性与高度，并不完全取决于多头意愿，更取决于空头是否愿意在高位“配合”。 从操盘节奏来看，主力目前更倾向于用横盘震荡来消化抛压，而非直接暴力拉升。这种“以时间换空间”的手法，一方面可以让长期持有者在相对平稳的环境中逐步出货，另一方面也能在震荡过程中不断诱捕追空的资金，借空头止损的力量来托住价格。可以说，这是当下资金面条件下较为省力的选择，但隐患同样存在——震荡幅度是否会进一步扩大，完全取决于主力手中可调动的资金是否足够充裕。一旦资金吃紧，横盘可能演变为阴跌$XAU
Gold plummets $200! Large bearish candle shakeout, don't blindly cut losses
⚠️Risk warning: This is only a market opinion exchange and does not constitute investment advice. Contract trading carries extremely high risk, please control your position size.
Chart of XAUUSDT perpetual 1-hour timeframe shows two rounds of devastating sell-offs:
First round: rapid dump from the high of 4634, crashing below 4500;
After a brief consolidation between 4450-4480, the second round broke down further, hitting a low of 4405, current price 4428.3.
MACD death cross downward, bearish momentum releasing intensively, a large number of leveraged contracts liquidated.
Many think this plunge is due to Fed rate hikes, but that is not the case.
The Fed's statements did not clearly indicate a rate hike or cut, and they scrapped forward guidance altogether. Just raising rate hike expectations caused market panic and a stampede.
The US is now trapped in a debt deadlock:
Tax hikes, spending cuts, rate cuts, and rate hikes—all four paths are blocked, with national debt surpassing 40 trillion. The market hopes AI technology will boost the economy and dilute debt, but AI is a long-term "pre-sale" with a 10-year cycle, and short-term returns cannot be realized.
In contrast, gold is a tangible "ready property," not relying on anyone's credit promises.
Global central banks continue large-scale gold purchases, increasing holdings by 288 tons last quarter, a 60% year-on-year surge.
Retail investors: panic stop-loss after seeing $200 drop
Investment banks: repeatedly calculating rate hike probabilities
Central banks: continue hoarding gold in the spot market
Short-term candlesticks are the weather; debt fundamentals are the terrain. Weather changes, but terrain is hard to alter.
Key levels on the chart
🔹Resistance: 4480-4520 (first layer of trapped resistance), strong resistance at 4634
🔹Support: 4405 (this round's low, core defense level)
Short-term trend is weak, don't rush to bottom-fish. Wait for support confirmation or a breakout and stable hold above resistance before acting.
Two signals must appear simultaneously for the bull logic to truly fail:
1. AI productivity data is genuinely reflected in official statistics
2. US Treasury yields autonomously fall and stabilize
Before that, most big drops are emotion-driven shakeouts.
💬 Interaction: Holding long-term funds, do you choose AI long-term expectations or gold for hedging? Let's discuss in the comments.
#黄金 #XAUUSDT #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The next AI earnings test is less about confirming compute demand and more about measuring its breadth. Dell on Sep 1, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on Sep 2, should offer a useful cross-section of servers, custom chips, networking and cloud data.
My read: durable sector support requires more than strong orders at one layer. Growth that also converts into profit, cash flow and steadier software revenue would make the broader valuation case more credible. If strength remains concentrated in chips, the AI cycle may still be robust, but its benefits will look narrower. Not advice, just analysis.
#BroadcomDellAIResultsBrothers, it's Monday, and liquidity returned as soon as the US stock market opened.
$BTC surged up to 79387 before being slammed down, with a low of 76916. This wave is just the emotional release after the US stock market opened. The ETF broke a nine-day inflow streak and lost 200 million dollars on Friday, plus the sell orders accumulated over the low-liquidity weekend suddenly flooded out. It's normal to have a little pullback after nine consecutive days of inflows, don't panic. The support below for BTC is 76600-77000. My long position remains unchanged with an order at 75555 waiting to be filled; I'll enter if it hits, otherwise forget it. The upper target is still 79200-80000.
$ETH dropped quite hard this wave, with a high of 2534 and a low directly down to 2386. The Ethereum spot ETF is still seeing inflows, with about 100 million dollars net inflow for the tenth consecutive day, but it can't resist the overall market pullback, plus the negative sentiment from Cronos being attacked dragged down the entire ETH ecosystem. However, the ETH/BTC position has reached a critical breakout point. Once the market stabilizes, there is still a chance for an independent rally. I continue to hold my long position, planning to buy on a dip at 2400-2405 with a stop loss at 2375.
$SOL fell the hardest today, dropping from 107.46 straight down to 100.20, losing over 4 points. The positive news of Goldman Sachs holding positions couldn't stop the market pullback, plus the competitive narrative brought by Robinhood Chain and Ethereum L2 caused short-term funds to exit. However, SOL's governance upgrade and deflationary logic remain intact, and the V1 trading system launch on the 9th is still on the way. I have an order placed at 98-99 waiting to buy.I believe the key for $SOL this time is not short-term sentiment, but a change in the supply logic. After the governance vote passed the dual deflation proposal, the future supply of SOL will decrease, effectively reducing inflationary pressure by one notch. What's even more remarkable is that this is happening while the ecosystem is still hot: there is demand attention, and the supply side is tightening again. The market's pricing of SOL is likely to no longer just follow thematic rotations but will re-evaluate its scarcity. I wouldn't interpret this as an instant positive, but if the momentum continues, SOL has the chance to enter a new round of value reassessment. My judgment leans positive; the core depends on whether the expectation of reduced supply can sustain trading, rather than just a one-day hype.#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
Let me tell you the honest truth from my mid-term intelligence perspective: this week is packed with employment data—ADP, JOLTS, initial claims, and non-farm payrolls closing the show. It looks lively, but the measuring stick has already been changed by Wash.
Brother Jackson Hole was very straightforward: inflation hasn't truly dropped, the 2% target is fixed, forward guidance is gone, only "discipline" is given, no GPS. Previously, the market played the "poor employment → rate cut" reflex arc, but this time it doesn't work. In his mind, 4.1% employment is considered sufficient, as long as there are no hiring freezes or layoffs, unless non-farm payrolls approach zero or turn negative, or unemployment jumps above 4.2%, he won't stop being hawkish.
As long as employment doesn't collapse drastically, Wash has the confidence to keep talking tough; the probability of a rate hike in September is nearly 60% and still holding; only if the data is really bad will it give the market a chance to ease.
Don't get swayed by single-week fluctuations in the mid-term; focus on the slopes of core PCE, oil prices, and unemployment rate—these three lines are more useful than guessing the non-farm numbers.
My conclusion: employment data is a thermometer, Wash has recalibrated the scale, if you still read it by the old red line, you'll end up eating noodles.
$BTC
$ETH Next week, OPN, HYPE, SUI, ENA, and EIGEN will unlock nearly $100 million in concentrated tokens, yet BTC violently surged and triggered liquidations late at night — is this a signal that the bull market continues, or a prelude to whales selling off on good news?
These two events might be part of the same scheme. The late-night surge triggered liquidations, with BTC jumping from 77,500 to 79,120 and ETH rising from 2,460 to 2,520 — short-term shorts were wiped out, and market sentiment instantly reversed. But the real undercurrent is the large-scale token unlock next week. Although HYPE’s $70 million unlock accounts for only 0.1%, the absolute amount is significant; the real risk lies with OPN unlocking 10% of its circulating supply, as projects with poor liquidity are easily crushed.
The late-night pump might be designed to create better selling prices for the unlocked tokens — first triggering a short squeeze to create FOMO, then distributing the unlocked tokens at a high price. If this script plays out, those chasing longs will be the last bag holders. You can follow the short-term move, but be quick in and out; don’t get attached to the fight.
Are you chasing the late-night pump, or waiting for the unlock sell-off to hit a low before acting?
$BTC $ETH $OPN $BTC did not continue straight up after surging to $81,000, currently stuck in a high-level consolidation between $77,000 and $80,000.
Since rising from around $63,000 in August, the monthly gain is still close to 30%, outperforming gold, the Nasdaq, and the S&P; however, the $80,000 level has been repeatedly tested and lost, indicating the market has shifted from a short squeeze acceleration to profit digestion and waiting for macro validation.
What has truly changed is who it moves with. Grayscale data shows Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has risen from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%, with a 30-day window even reaching 0.81; meanwhile, its correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, and with the US Dollar Index it has moved to around -0.86.
It currently does not resemble high-beta tech stocks but rather trades like a scarce hard asset.
Behind this is the same macro logic: the total US debt has crossed $40 trillion, the Treasury is increasing long-term bond buybacks, the dollar is weakening, and fiat credit hedging flows are returning. Gold moves first, Bitcoin follows, marking a restart of devaluation trades rather than internal hype within the crypto community.
Stronger linkage does not mean they will always rise and fall together. Gold has low volatility and is a steadier safe haven; Bitcoin is more elastic and more easily disrupted by leverage and risk appetite.
This week’s dense employment data releases and the still-to-be-tested hawkish stance of the Fed will affect interest rate and dollar expectations, which will loosen correlations again. If $80,000 cannot hold, the high-level consolidation will extend; if gold strengthens further and the dollar continues to weaken, this consolidation is more likely to become a stepping stone for the next breakout. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Basecat 单日110万美金买盘 ，coinbase流入加速，Basecat会把风口带向base链吗？ 一起来看看数据吧！ 2026.8.31日 #Basecat 前40名持币地址数据变化 1：Uniswap ：流出 43.22% Mexc : 流出 6.83% Coinbase ： 流入 29.19% 2：前40个人地址：6人减仓，6人加仓，11人新进入 $Basecat 每日重点总结： 经过4天的沉淀，单杀再一次统计了basecat，现在看看整体数据吧，coinbase流入较之前已经加速，前40总共有6人减仓，有3人是把代币转出，还有3人是真实减仓，减仓数量中等，前40总共有6人加仓，有3人是别的地址转入，还有3个是链上加仓，但是加仓的数量很少，跟上次相比这一次前40总共有11个新人进入，总买入大约110万美金，其中知名meme玩家 Unipcs买入45万美金，有6个地址是新买入，2个地址是排名正常上升，还有3个地址是别的地址转入过来，对应跌出的11人有6个地址减仓跌出排名，还有5人是彻底清仓了，大概的数据就这些，简单的分析和拆解一下吧，本次上涨