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The US spot $BTC ETF saw a capital shift on August 28, with a single-day net outflow of about $202 million, ending a previous streak of 9 consecutive trading days of net inflows. However, at the same time, the Ethereum ETF continued to attract strong capital inflows, showing a clear divergence in market fund preferences.
Data shows that the Bitcoin ETF had accumulated net inflows of about $2.8 billion over the previous 8 consecutive trading days, during which $BTC once approached $80,000. After this outflow, its cumulative net inflow is about $55.1 billion, with total net assets still close to $93.9 billion, indicating that the overall capital base has not changed significantly.
The $ETH ETF maintained its strength, with a net inflow of about $102 million on August 28, marking the 10th consecutive trading day of capital inflow, with cumulative net inflows reaching about $12.9 billion.
This round of capital divergence occurred after a Bitcoin price pullback. Influenced by the Fed's hawkish signals, market risk appetite briefly cooled. However, judging by the current scale, the single-day outflow from the Bitcoin ETF is still within normal fluctuations, more like a rhythm adjustment of funds rather than a fundamental reversal in institutional demand. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Warning! The buyback benefit has been realized, and 1255 might be the top of this wave!
Stop using the $SKHYNIX 40 trillion buyback as an argument. The benefit has already been realized; the price rose on the day the news came out on August 19. Now it is a pullback after the benefit has been fully priced in.
Look at the trend: it rose from the low point to 1255, a huge increase with substantial profits. In the early morning of August 31, a large bearish candlestick smashed from 1230 directly down to 1144, a drop of 8.8%, with increased volume. This is not a normal pullback; it is the main force unloading.
More importantly, there are fundamental concerns: on August 18, the Korean stock market plunged nearly 10%, global chip stocks collectively pulled back, and investors worry whether AI data center spending can continue. Storage chip prices may have already peaked. Although HBM is hot now, the rule for cyclical stocks is that after rising too much, they will fall.
Technically, the key support at 1200 has been broken and now turned into resistance. If the rebound cannot hold above 1200, the decline will continue, with the next support at 1100, and if weaker, 1050.
Operation: Short on a sluggish rebound between 1190-1200, stop loss at 1210, target 1140-1120. Don’t catch the falling knife under the cover of buyback benefits. $BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 This ETH pullback suddenly hit the brakes on the market.
Prices started to weaken, but ETF funds did not fully synchronize.
As of August 28, the US spot ETH ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $102 million, with BlackRock's ETHA net inflow of $83.79 million and Fidelity's FETH net outflow of $24.26 million.
What’s more noteworthy is that the ETH spot ETF has maintained net inflows for 10 consecutive trading days, starting from August 17, with a cumulative net inflow of about $1.42 billion.
This creates a rather subtle phenomenon:
The candlesticks are cooling down, but the funds have not visibly cooled off yet.
If it were just short-term profit-taking, then a price pullback wouldn’t be surprising. But ETF funds are still flowing in, at least indicating that institutional interest in ETH has not significantly declined for now.
So there’s no need to focus solely on candlestick price movements right now; it’s more important to observe the subsequent changes in fund flows.
If ETFs continue to maintain net inflows, then this adjustment is more likely a short-term sentiment cooldown; but if fund inflows also start to noticeably decrease, the pressure on ETH could further increase.
The divergence between price and funds is actually the most important aspect to watch in the current ETH market.#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
AI earnings reports are actually also a liquidity observation window for BTC.
This week, Broadcom and Dell successively released earnings reports. The market's focus is no longer just on whether AI demand is strong, but whether the huge AI capital expenditures can continue to convert into orders, revenue, and cash flow. Broadcom announced its results after the market closed on September 2, with market expectations of about $29.4 billion in revenue; Dell will announce its earnings on September 1. (StoneX) For the crypto community, this means an important question: if the AI industry chain continues to provide strong guidance, risk appetite may be supported, and BTC has the opportunity to continue maintaining high-level volatility; but if the “AI return rate” begins to be questioned by the market, and high-valuation tech assets undergo re-pricing, BTC as a high-beta risk asset will also find it difficult to stay completely unaffected. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 🦅 Hawkish Federal Reserve and Asset Games Amid Geopolitical Storms
Multiple Signal Interpretations of Gold Falling Below $4400 and Bitcoin at the $77000 Threshold
At the end of August 2026, the global financial markets are undergoing a complex game driven by intertwined monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks. Spot gold briefly fell below the $4400 mark to $4396.39/oz during the Asian session, hitting a more than one-week low; meanwhile, Bitcoin fluctuated around $77000, down about 38% from its all-time high of $126073 in October 2025. Federal Reserve Chair Wash's hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium raised the probability of a September rate hike from 39.9% to 56.9%, creating a dual pressure on interest-free gold and high-risk crypto assets in a high interest rate environment. However, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict injects a completely different safe-haven narrative for these two assets. This article deeply analyzes the current structural logic of the gold and cryptocurrency markets from four dimensions: macro policy, capital flows, geopolitical games, and asset allocation, providing investors with forward-looking and practical allocation ideas. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH $SOL $SOL accumulation opportunity has arrived, geopolitical risks have opened a window to get in
Although currently still at an unrealized loss of $2000, I decisively added to my position
Last night, the US military took action on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliated with missiles against a US base in Jordan at dawn. Normally, such geopolitical negative news would cause risk assets to drop first out of caution, but I actually see this as an accumulation opportunity for SOL.
Because geopolitical shocks are short-term emotional disturbances, while SOL's fundamentals are strengthening, which is solid.
Last week, SOL spot net inflows totaled about $154 million, and over the weekend, a whale address swept in 280,000 SOL within 10 hours. These funds are voting with real money and will not change direction just because of a strike in Hormuz.
Moreover, SOL just passed the SGP-0002 governance proposal, doubling the inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, expected to reduce SOL issuance by 18.9 million over the next six years. Simply put, fewer new coins will be issued, so existing holders' stakes will be diluted more slowly, which is a medium- to long-term price support.
Looking at the market, SOL is currently around 103, down 3% in 24 hours, but I tend to think this is a release of geopolitical panic sentiment, not a trend reversal.
If the 106-107 level is retaken, a short squeeze rally could start at any time#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Monday evening report is here! Oil prices and rate hike expectations are pressing from above, ETF funds are supporting from below, tonight this market is stuck in the middle, neither side can push the other down.
BTC is currently around 78370, 24-hour high and low are 79400 and 77000, still fluctuating within the range. ETH is about 2447, 24-hour high and low are approximately 2535 and 2387, after returning near 2450, its strength is still weaker than BTC.
US-Iran conflict flares up again, Brent crude breaks above $90, inflation concerns rise accordingly, the market pushes the probability of a September rate hike to about 60%. Rising oil prices will increase inflation pressure, tightening rate expectations, so BTC and ETH naturally struggle to move smoothly. On the other hand, last week BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $924 million, ETH about $824 million, institutional funds are still buying back the dip, which is one reason BTC has not continued to fall below 77000.
Short-term $BTC outlook is 77800 to 78800. If the 15-minute candle closes above 78800, look to 79400; if it closes below 77800, look back to 77000; rebound conditions fail below 77600.
$ETH outlook is 2420 to 2470, if the 15-minute candle closes above 2470, then look to 2500 to 2535; if it closes below 2420, then look to 2385; rebound conditions fail below 2400. Stay light in the middle range.
For record of market conditions only, not investment advice. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
BTC truly faces a dual test of "AI hype" and "dollar liquidity."
Currently, BTC remains near $78,000, with $80,000 becoming a clear psychological barrier. (Pluang) On one side, there are AI earnings reports; if Broadcom and Dell continue to validate AI capital expenditures, it could improve sentiment across risk assets. On the other side, with Fed's hawkish stance, September rate hike expectations rising to about 60%, combined with inflation pressure from rising oil prices, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are suppressing BTC. (Reuters) Therefore, the key for BTC going forward is not simply whether AI stocks rise, but whether AI profit expectations can offset the tightening liquidity pressure. If "AI strong + dollar weak," BTC may regain fuel for an upward breakout; if "AI underperforms + dollar strong," the area near $80,000 could instead become a new resistance zone.📊On August 31, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won revealed that SK Hynix is evaluating establishing a storage chip factory in Japan through a joint venture. The project is mainly intended to address the storage demand gap brought about by the AI boom while optimizing production costs. The company is currently selecting a site, prioritizing areas with sufficient power and water supply, but the partners, factory location, investment amount, and capacity plan have not yet been finalized.
The layers of logic behind the layout in Japan:
1. The AI industry creates a storage supply gap
AI servers drive rapid expansion in demand for HBM, large-capacity DRAM, and NAND
2. Japan's semiconductor supporting industry chain is complete
Japan holds a complete supply chain for semiconductor equipment, specialty chemicals, and materials; Kioxia and SanDisk have also announced that they will invest a combined total of over $31 billion to expand local NAND capacity by 2032
3. Potential government subsidies are a key variable
Japan is vigorously attracting investment in advanced semiconductor projects, and once the factory is established, Japanese policy subsidies may directly affect the final investment scale.
The core value of this matter is not just the addition of a new factory in Japan.
It marks that SK Hynix's AI storage layout is upgrading from single domestic manufacturing in Korea to a global supply chain coordinated among Korea, the United States, and Japan. At this stage, the company has finalized the Indiana, USA project, investing over $4 billion to build an advanced HBM packaging line, aiming to achieve localized mass production in the second half of 2029. $BTC $ETH $SOL #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC is holding up while $ETH and $SOL weaken, suggesting liquidity is favoring BTC over higher-beta assets.
At ~$78.7K, BTC looks more like a macro hedge than the start of a broad crypto rally.
BTC-gold correlation, US-Iran tensions, and oil risks keep inflation uncertainty elevated.
For now, I see selective BTC strength—not a full return of risk appetite.
Just my view, not financial advice.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Chinese real estate stocks surged boosted by new mortgage regulations. Is this ultimately a market rescue or an acceleration of reshuffling? On the surface, the market is lifted, but upon closer examination, it's not that simple.
The core trump card of this policy is not extending the mortgage term to 40 years, but changing the loan disbursement timing: personal mortgages are only issued after project completion and filing.
A 40-year mortgage extension can save a few hundred yuan in monthly payments on a 1 million loan, lowering the threshold on the demand side. But issuing loans only after completion directly lengthens the capital recovery cycle for developers. The previous model where developers relied on pre-sale funds to recover cash is completely invalidated; from now on, they must finance construction themselves to receive the final payment.
Based on this change, there are three clear directions:
⬇️
Real estate stocks will sharply diverge.
Farewell to broad rallies; well-funded central and state-owned enterprises and stable leaders can withstand capital lock-up, while highly leveraged, fast-turnover private enterprises face huge pressure.
Rebuilding delivery security.
Blocking the risk of unfinished projects at the source, greatly enhancing buyer confidence. In the future, only companies that can sell completed homes with solid quality will win the market.
Transaction bottoming rather than surging.
Extending mortgages lowers current thresholds but cannot fundamentally change future income expectations. The housing market will focus on stability, with prime projects in core cities recovering first.
This regulation essentially uses short-term pain for developers to achieve long-term deleveraging and prevent unfinished projects. For investment, only leading targets with strong cash flow and completed home development capabilities truly have long-term value.
DYOR Previously, the four addresses together held about $4.215 million in long positions and $3.169 million in short positions, resulting in a net increase of about $1.046 million overall. The positions moved 13,035.52 contracts to the short side, which is about $15.833 million at current prices. One address was nearly short on Friday, starting to build short positions on Saturday, and currently has about $4.615 million in emptiness; Another address still held 2,309.47 long positions on Friday, closed long positions this morning and then shorted, resulting in a loss of about $116,000 during the flip phase; The third address switched from 1,200 long positions to 1,800 short contracts, currently holding about $2.186 million in emptiness; The fourth address established short positions on Friday and continued to increase holdings, currently with about $6.581 million in emptiness. SKHX closed at $1,200.9 on Friday, now at $1,214.6, up about 1.1% since the weekend. The weighted cost of existing short positions at the four addresses is about $1,174.54, with a combined floating loss of about $487,000. SKHX's nominal open interest dropped from about $328.9 million on Friday to about $315 million, a decrease of nearly 4%. Among the current 66 million-dollar SKHX positions, 35 are long and 31 short, with a long-short ratio of 1.13; by amount, the long-short ratio is 0.71, with net short positions of about $36.755 million. Four addresses account for about 11.7% of the large short positions2026 Bear-Bull Transition Series 1 — PSIP's Higher High
PSIP (Profit Supply Percentage), as an indicator from the perspective of "chip structure," has once again proven its effectiveness in this cycle.
Whenever PSIP falls below 50%, it indicates a reversal in BTC's profit and loss structure, which usually occurs in the bottom range of a major cycle (red zone).
During bear market cycles, each rebound peak of PSIP does not exceed the previous peak, which is the most direct sign of BTC's downtrend.
However, when a PSIP rebound creates a "Higher High," it deserves attention because this is an abnormal phenomenon.
Only after chips have been fully rotated and the overall cost significantly lowered can the price fail to reach a new high while PSIP rises higher.
For example, in May this year BTC was $82,000 with PSIP at 65%; now BTC is $80,000 with PSIP at 70%;
Compared to price action, this is a leading signal for the trend.
It indirectly confirms that the bottom structure was formed between June and August, simultaneously increasing the probability that this is a reversal, not just a rebound.
If the market begins to enter the bear-bull transition period, then PSIP is very unlikely to fall below 50% again (except for a super black swan event like March 12).
Thereafter, whenever PSIP falls below 65% (green zone), it is an excellent opportunity to enter on the right side.
The earlier you grasp it, the better, because later on, even if PSIP falls below 65%, BTC's price may not be lower.
------------------------------------
Final Notes
All data or indicators can only tell you the approximate position of the cycle but will not tell you the exact day to buy or sell.
In June this year, I wrote three "2026 Bottom Fishing Series" articles (links below) to provide timing references for friends' trading through logical analysis and data backtesting.
If you have read them all and still haven't bought, it's indeed regrettable, but that's okay!
Now, I plan to write another "Bear-Bull Transition Series"; I hope it can help friends who missed the early phase find suitable right-side entry points.
At the same time, I want to tell all friends who have already entered:
Hold on to your cheap chips,
No matter the storms and waves along the way;
We will definitely meet at the peak! #BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
Today, gold is around $4440–4460 per ounce, while BTC is about $78,000. After Wash's hawkish stance, the expectation of a rate hike in September has clearly heated up, and gold has recently seen a pullback. (Reuters)
Therefore, what is truly worth watching next is the "triangle relationship":
🟠 Gold
🟠 BTC
🔵 U.S. Treasury yields / U.S. dollar
If the following occurs:
Gold↑ + BTC↑ + Dollar/real interest rate↓
This is a typical resurgence of liquidity and currency depreciation trades.
If the following occurs:
Gold↑ + BTC sideways
It indicates that funds are more inclined toward traditional safe-haven assets.
If the following occurs:
Dollar↑ + U.S. Treasury yields↑ + BTC↓
It means that macro liquidity is once again becoming the biggest ceiling for BTC.
So now, BTC is not just about looking at the candlestick chart.
It is, together with gold, undergoing a macro fund repricing. 📊
#BTC #Bitcoin #Gold #FederalReserve #Dollar #USTreasury #Macroeconomics #Cryptocurrency#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold A notable change is happening: it is becoming more and more like gold.
BTC is currently still oscillating around $78,000, having previously surged above $81,500. The price has not continued to break upwards, nor has it experienced a sustained crash due to the somewhat hawkish statements from the Fed, indicating that bulls and bears are repricing at a high level. (Pluang)
What is even more noteworthy is:
The linkage between BTC and gold is strengthening.
Latest data shows that the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen above 50%, whereas at the beginning of the year this correlation was close to zero; meanwhile, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from over 60% to about 33%. (Yahoo Finance)
This may reflect a changing market narrative.
BTC is often regarded as a "high-volatility version of tech stocks," and when liquidity tightens and real interest rates rise, BTC tends to be the first to come under pressure.
Gold is a traditional store of value asset, while BTC is seen by some funds as a digital scarce asset.
They are not exactly the same, but when the macro environment changes, capital may simultaneously seek assets that are "non-sovereign, scarce, and sensitive to currency depreciation."
Therefore, the high-level oscillation of BTC this time is not just about "whether it can break through $80,000."
More importantly:
If gold continues to remain strong and BTC does not fall at high levels, BTC may be completing an important shift in its asset characteristics. $BTC #EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Wash Policy Stance Under Test #BTCHighVolatility, Strengthened Correlation with Gold #EarningsObserver: Broadcom and Dell Take Over, AI Returns Under Test Again Continuing strong at the end of August, the third quarter market also showed significant recovery, with the current quarter's gain reaching 32.48%, far exceeding the historical third quarter average of 7.94%. To find a stronger performance than this round, you have to go back to 2017, when the third quarter surged 80%.
Behind this rebound, capital inflow and short squeeze are the two main drivers. The US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow reached $1.92 billion in a single week, hitting a new high since October 2025; meanwhile, about $6.55 billion in short positions were squeezed and closed in August, further amplifying the upward momentum.
The market is beginning to revisit the 2017 bull market scenario. From late August to mid-December that year, Bitcoin once rose about 325%. However, history does not simply repeat itself. What really matters is whether ETF funds can continue and whether macro liquidity can keep improving. If these conditions persist, the fourth quarter may become a key window for Bitcoin's next phase of the market. $ETH 今天我想聊的主题是: 沃什突然放鹰之后，9月新的风暴窗口已经被打开。 上周五，沃什在杰克逊霍尔完成了上任后的第一次年会主旨演讲。同一段话，三个市场给出了三种反应。 现货黄金下跌3.2%，白银下跌4.2%。两年期美债收益率一口气上涨约12个基点，升至 4.36%，创下7月底以来最高水平。 但30年期美债收益率几乎没动,全天只上涨约1个基点。美股那边，标普500指数只跌了0.25%，算上这一天，全周依然上涨。 同一场鹰派冲击，有的资产当场被重新定价，有的资产像什么都没发生。 这种分裂不是当天的偶然。上周五真正的意义，不在于金银跌了多少，而在于它提前演了一遍9月的分配方式:同一场冲击落下来，有人被护着，有人被推出去。 而这只是一场讲话的分量。真正的日程，早就排好了。 接下来的两周，有三件事几乎同时落地。9月9日，美国财政部开始扩大长期国债回购，单次规模从最高20亿美元提高到至少40亿美元。 9月17日凌晨，美联储公布利率决定。沃什讲话后，市场给9月加息的概率从35%左右推高到接近六成。 一天之后，日本央行公布利率决定，市场同样在押注日本继续加息。 这三件事平时分别挂在三个不同的版块底下，可这#EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease #BTCHighVolatility
Good afternoon everyone! Today, let's not talk about the Federal Reserve, but focus on BTC, ETH, and SOL from the perspectives of liquidity, chip distribution, and valuation.
🟠 $BTC
Institutional ETF funds dominate, with relatively stable chip distribution. The $80K+ level already prices in some institutional allocation expectations; without new incremental funds, high-level volatility is more likely.
🔵 $ETH
A mix of institutional, ecosystem, and trading funds. Staking reduces circulation, but historical trapped positions remain heavy. With no macro fund expansion, it's not easy for ETH/BTC to continue strengthening.
🟣 $SOL
Market sentiment and speculative funds have a higher proportion, offering the greatest elasticity but also the weakest sustainability. When the profit-making effect declines, SOL usually faces the largest pullback pressure among the three.
Simple summary:
Incremental funds entering: BTC → ETH → SOL
Funds retreating: SOL → ETH → BTC
So what really matters now is not who is "the cheapest," but whether incremental funds continue to enter.
⚠️ This is only a logical deduction and does not constitute investment advice. 💰 $3.2B inflow in one week, but $BTC still hasn't broken through the $80K–$85K resistance zone.
This highlights a key issue:
Money is indeed coming in, but selling pressure above is also heavy.
Continuous inflows into ETFs and funds indicate that this rebound is no longer just short squeeze; spot funds are also starting to take over.
However, if funds keep flowing in but BTC still can't break the resistance, caution is needed — the new funds might be getting absorbed by the overhead supply and profit-taking.
The focus going forward is on two points:
🔹 Whether the inflow of funds can continue
🔹 Whether BTC can break out and hold above $80K–$85K with volume
Funds determine how far the market can go; the breakout determines if the trend can continue.
#BTCHighVolatility #BTCGoldCorrelationDon't just focus on Wash; Wash is just an appetizer! Three major storms are about to hit the market in September 🔥
Jackson Hole speech is merely the starter! In the next two weeks, three heavyweight events will cluster, putting global assets to a severe test.
1️⃣ September 9 | U.S. Treasury increases long-term bond repurchases
The single repurchase limit is raised from a maximum of $2 billion directly to at least $4 billion. The Treasury's move aims to stabilize long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
2️⃣ Early morning September 17 | Federal Reserve September rate decision
Wash's hawkish remarks ignited the market; the probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% to nearly 60%.
Whether to raise rates or not will directly determine the major direction of the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and BTC.
3️⃣ September 18 | Bank of Japan rate decision
The market is betting on Japan continuing to raise rates. Fluctuations in the yen exchange rate and Japanese bonds will transmit shocks to global liquidity.
Key logic: These three events target the same goal!
Though these three events belong to different fields and seem unrelated, they are actually a coordinated set of moves:
✅ Stabilize the yen exchange rate
✅ Suppress long-term U.S. Treasury yields
✅ Prevent large-scale concentrated liquidations and stampedes in global risk assets
If any one of these links fails, both the U.S. stock market and crypto market will experience severe volatility. #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
📉 BTC holds 78K, this rebound shows a "strong" foundation
Real-time market feeling: Early session once approached 77K, despite escalating US-Iran conflict, oil price surge, and hawkish Wash, the triple negative factors didn't break the level—this kind of market not collapsing indicates internal support is stronger than expected. If it were truly weak, it would have fallen along with the drop earlier, not risen.
📊 Mainstream coin market overview (8.31)
BTC $77,800 (-0.7%, rebounded after daily low of 77K)
ETH $2,435 (-1.6%)
SOL $102 (-2.9%, temporarily lost $105 level)
BNB $688 ｜ XRP $1.37
Fear & Greed Index 62 (significantly cooled from last week's 73)
🔥 Today's resilient and volatile coins
· XMR $490 (+5.8%) — Privacy sector collectively strengthens, funds favor anonymity amid geopolitical tension
· ZEC $830 (-0.2%) — Mild pullback after big surge the day before, institutional interest remains
· UNI +10.6% — Protocol fee activation + 100 million token burn plan, deflation expectation stimulates buying
· HYPE (H) $80 (-2.8%) ｜ UB $0.11 ｜ LAB at low range, awaiting volume confirmation
🧠 Core logic
This round of pullback is more due to macro sentiment (repeated rate hike expectations + geopolitical impulses) rather than deterioration of crypto fundamentals. ETF net inflow for the week is $924 million, ETH ETF sets a record of 10 consecutive days of net inflow, institutional funds show no signs of retreat.
$77K can be seen as a short-term bull-bear dividing line—holding it maintains a high-level box range oscillation; if lost with volume, consider portfolio adjustment. Currently, my strategy is to buy in batches at low prices; since big money keeps buying during the downtrend, following smart money positioning is more reasonable than panic selling.
Privacy track (XMR/ZEC) has independent logic during geopolitical turmoil, deserves more weighting; if SOL pulls back below $100, it is a technically significant support area. The biggest variable this week is non-farm payroll data—if employment is weak, rate cut expectations rise, which could provide a breather window for risk assets.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#BTC high-level oscillation, stronger linkage with gold
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns under further scrutiny Ethereum recently has an interesting proposal: validators can voluntarily donate 0% to 10% of their staking rewards to support ecosystem development. On the surface, this is a matter of money, but in reality, it touches on an old topic—who should ultimately pay for Ethereum's public infrastructure?
Let's do the math. Validators collectively receive about 700,000 ETH in rewards annually. If around 51% of validators participate and donate up to the 10% cap, this could raise 50,000 to 70,000 $ETH per year. If this money is actually secured, core development and client maintenance—these "public utilities"—would have a stable funding source, no longer relying on foundation grants or project handouts.
But the controversy lies here. Validators are originally roles that spend money to buy security and earn returns; now they are being asked to take a portion out of their own pockets to support the ecosystem, directly reducing their net earnings. Some are willing, seeing it as a long-term investment; others refuse, questioning why it should be their burden.
For the market, it's even more subtle. Funds flowing into the ecosystem means a portion of ETH is locked into development budgets, effectively reducing circulating supply, which is bullish; but validator rewards decrease, making staking less attractive, which is bearish. These two forces are trading off simultaneously, so the short-term market may not give a consistent answer. Therefore, don't just focus on the words "fundraising"—what really matters is the voting tendency of the validator community—their choice is the true barometer of Ethereum governance sentiment. Gold and Bitcoin are not strongly linked assets. The main drivers of this gold rally transmit very weakly to Bitcoin and can even create capital suppression. Divergence is the norm, not the exception. The 30-day rolling correlation between the two dropped as low as –0.88 in 2026 (near 2022 bear-market levels), showing near-complete decoupling. Why they diverge: Gold is a sovereign-level safe-haven (real rates, central-bank buying, geopolitics, USD credit). Main players: central banks, tradition$BTC is now stuck around $77.5K, and the market is indeed becoming increasingly delicate.
After the hawkish stance from the Fed, the September rate hike expectations have risen to nearly 60%. The real market direction will likely be decided by this week's non-farm payroll data.
📉 Non-farm payrolls surprise on the downside → rate hike expectations cool down → BTC surges to $82K–$83K
⚖️ Neutral data → $77K–$80K continues to consolidate
🔥 Employment exceeds expectations → rate hike expectations continue to rise → BTC retests $75K–$76K
So the current sideways movement may not be about choosing a direction but more about waiting for the data to ignite the market.
The key is whether $77K can hold and, after the data release, whether the market will reprice the September policy.
$BTC $ETH
#EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease #BTCGoldCorrelationWarning! The nine consecutive ETF inflows have ended, institutions are unloading, and this might not be just a shakeout!
Stop comforting yourself by saying it's a shakeout. Look at these signals: the trend may have already reversed.
First, the nine consecutive ETF inflows have ended. On August 29, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $202 million, ARK outflowed $115 million, BlackRock outflowed $33.4 million, and Bitwise outflowed $49.7 million. The core driver that pulled $BTC from 63,500 to 80,000 was ETFs, and now ETFs are starting to unload. Do you still call this a shakeout?
Second, the hawkish remarks from Waller are not a short-term factor. The probability of a rate hike in September surged from 35% to 60%. If there really is a rate hike in September, the macro environment will directly worsen. In a high interest rate environment, risk assets will all be under pressure, and $BTC is no exception.
Third, from 63,500 to 81,446, a 28% increase, profits are substantial. Futures open interest dropped from 646,000 to 588,000, indicating no new funds entering the market; it's all existing funds competing.
76,000 is a key support level. If it breaks, the next support is at 73,000, and weaker would be 70,000. Don't catch a falling knife at this position.
Strategy: Short on a rebound to 78,500-79,000 with a stop loss at 79,500, target 76,000-75,000. If it breaks 76,000, go short with a target of 73,000. Strategy执行主席Michael Saylor在周日发了条两个词的帖子："We're Back。"市场立刻翻译成：周一要宣布买币了。Polymarket上96%的概率认为本周会有购币公告。这几乎成了一种仪式——周末发谜语，周一发公告。 但把这条推文当成“购币预告”来读，是市场最天真的读法。真正该问的是：为什么一个持有84万枚比特币的公司主席，需要亲自在社交媒体上发一条只有两个词的帖子来宣布“我要买币了”？ 他不是在通知市场。他是在向市场做一次精准的、低成本的、被十六个月和十周时间差验证过无数次的行为表演。而这场表演的观众，从来不只是散户。 换一个主语：不是“Saylor说了什么”，而是“这条推文是发给谁看的” 把主语从Saylor换成“这条推文本身”。 一条两个词的推文，发在周日，内容没有任何具体信息，却被市场自动填充为“购币预告”。这说明什么？说明Saylor用过去几年的行为，已经把“他的推文”训练成了一个金融工具。 这个工具不需要包含信息，它只需要被发送。市场会自己完成后续的叙事、定价和情绪动员。 而这个工具的真正功能，不是告诉世界“我要买币”，而是告诉一群特定的人：“窗口打NVIDIA's orders are booked two years ahead, Broadcom's AI revenue has doubled, SK Hynix's profits have surged fivefold, and Dell's server orders have piled up to 50 billion — is this all genuine demand?
The upstream earns huge profits, while the downstream assembly and sales see decreasing gross margins; are profits naturally concentrating only at the top?
Can the massive computing power built up really find enough paying AI scenarios to absorb it?
Large model API prices have dropped by 60%, software is still losing money, how long can the market supported by hardware alone last?
Is the current high growth in earnings reports the start of a technological revolution, or an advance payment of growth for the next three years?
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 UNI: Can burning + protocol revenue support 100U?
⚠️Risk warning: This is only an objective simulation analysis and does not constitute investment advice. 100U is an optimistic long-term forecast by institutions, not a guaranteed outcome.
1. First, calculate the hard data: What does reaching 100U mean?
- UNI original total supply: 1 billion tokens, after a one-time burn of 100 million tokens, about 895 million tokens remain.
- If the coin price reaches 100 USD: fully diluted market cap ≈ 89.5 billion USD.
- Historical comparison: UNI's all-time high was only 45 USD (2021 bull market). 100U means nearly doubling that again, requiring a super bull market plus large-scale real-world asset (RWA) tokenization landing.
- Standard Chartered Bank's forecast targets 100U by the end of 2030, not a short-term goal, premised on large-scale RWA on-chain, explosive DEX trading volume, and huge incremental revenue from Unichain.
2. UNI's positive logic (burning + revenue)
1. Protocol income is real cash flow
With fee switches enabled, V2/V3/V4, multi-chain, Unichain sorter revenue all flow into the TokenJar contract, used to repurchase UNI on the secondary market and permanently burn it.
- Bull market: protocol annual revenue can reach hundreds of millions of USD, continuously repurchasing and burning, reducing circulating supply, creating supply contraction.
- Bear market: trading volume shrinks, protocol revenue directly declines, repurchase and burn scale drops significantly.
2. One-time burn of 100 million tokens
The treasury directly burns 100 million tokens, permanently reducing total supply, a one-time positive event, not repeated annually.
3. Imagination space for V4 Hooks + Unichain + RWA
If RWA bonds and stocks trade massively on Uniswap, it will bring huge new trading volume, and protocol revenue will multiply. This is the core underlying story for the 100U forecast.
3. Realistic constraints: burning and revenue alone are insufficient to directly push to 100U
1. Burning fluctuates with market conditions, not fixed deflation
- Current annual repurchase and burn is about 2.5 to 4.5 million UNI tokens, burn intensity follows trading volume. In a bear market, trading volume drops, so does burning.
- UNI originally has 2% annual inflation issuance (20 million tokens per year).
Only when bull market trading volume explodes and burning > annual issuance will net deflation occur; in bear markets, burning cannot outpace issuance, so token supply increases.
2. DEX competition intensifies
Competitors like Aerodrome, Jupiter continuously grab trading volume; if market share is diverted, even if the overall crypto market rises, Uniswap's protocol revenue will be diluted.
3. Token has no direct dividends
UNI uses repurchase and burn, not direct dividends to holders.
Protocol earnings buy tokens to burn, not distributed directly to holders. Price increase requires the market to assign a high valuation to the protocol, not just cash flow alone.
4. Valuation ceiling
To reach 100U, DeFi's total market cap and RWA tokenization market must reach trillion-level scale, a long-term scenario facing regulatory, technical, and bear market uncertainties.
4. Summary of two scenarios
✅ Optimistic scenario (necessary conditions to achieve 100U, all indispensable)
1. Super crypto bull market;
2. Large-scale RWA on-chain, Uniswap capturing massive institutional trading flow;
3. Unichain, V4 Hooks bring huge incremental revenue;
4. Protocol trading volume continuously expands, annual burn far exceeds 20 million inflation issuance;
5. Competitors cannot capture significant market share.#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
The market has already started to react.
Short-term U.S. Treasury yields have clearly risen earlier, with the 2-year Treasury yield once pushed up by Waller's speech; the dollar is supported by policy expectations, while high-valuation tech stocks and interest rate-sensitive assets face repricing pressure. (Reuters)
Gold has experienced significant volatility as the market reassesses how far the "rate cut trade" can go. The crypto market is also highly sensitive to employment data, with BTC currently still below $80,000. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls may become the new directional selector. (Barron's)
So, what really matters this week is not "whether the nonfarm payrolls are good or not," but:
> Will the employment data force the market to acknowledge Waller's hawkish logic?
If the data continues to be strong, the main theme could be rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, lower rate cut expectations, and valuation pressure on growth stocks.
If employment weakens significantly, another set of trades may emerge: lower rate hike expectations, falling Treasury yields, and breathing room for gold and growth assets.
Waller has already handed more influence over to the data.
Next, it depends on how the data responds.📊
#FederalReserve #Waller #NonfarmPayrolls #USEmployment #USTreasuries #Dollar #Gold #USStocks #Macroeconomics#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
The intensive release of employment data puts Wash's policy stance to the test.
The core market variable this week has shifted from Jackson Hole's "Wash speech" to the upcoming intensive release of U.S. employment and economic data.
Wash has recently sent clearly hawkish signals: if inflation cannot sustainably return to the 2% target, the Federal Reserve still needs to take action; meanwhile, he believes the current financial environment is not significantly tightened, and the economy and employment remain resilient. The market has quickly repriced, with the September 16 Fed rate hike expectation rising to about 60%. (Reuters)
The key is that Wash deliberately downplays the weight of forward guidance, emphasizing letting the market "read the data" itself. This means the importance of each upcoming employment report will be amplified. (Reuters)
This week, focus on three things:
🔹 Will employment continue to cool down?
If new job additions weaken significantly and the unemployment rate rises, the market may reprice "economic slowdown," thereby lowering rate hike expectations.
🔹 Is employment still too strong?
If nonfarm payrolls, wages, and unemployment rate all perform strongly, then Wash's hawkish logic will be reinforced, and September rate hike expectations may further heat up.
🔹 What combination of employment and inflation appears?
What really troubles the market is not simply "strong employment" or "weak employment," but employment remaining resilient + inflation not coming down. This combination most easily pushes the Federal Reserve toward a longer period of high interest rates. Open Conspiracy: Why is the password to the next bull market hidden in the "deep integration of social and economic"? ♟️
If we compare the entire crypto market to a huge traffic pool, you'll find that all past public chains have been desperately competing for "capital stock," while neglecting the most core **"increment of attention"**.
Whoever can lock users' attention holds the pricing power.
The underlying logic of ACO / ALD is actually a very rigorous "attention monetization closed loop":
1️⃣ Capture attention: Keep users' fragmented time here through decentralized social, IM encrypted communication, and daily square content;
2️⃣ Retain asset side: When everyone is chatting and watching live streams here, native DEX and asset allocation naturally take on trading demands;
3️⃣ Feed back to ecosystem construction: The gas consumption and fees generated frequently in daily activities are instantly returned to staking nodes and the community through smart contracts.
This is not just building a chain; it's constructing a self-circulating digital economy.
#IndustryTrends #ACO #ALDToken #Web3EconomicModel #CryptoInsights Don't try to reason with dog traders. How should we really view Bitcoin and Ethereum now?
On the surface, the US and Iran are clashing again, oil prices are soaring, but gold hasn't risen and has actually fallen. Bitcoin is plunging along with crude oil, breaking below 78,000. This shows that global capital doesn't buy into the "safe haven" narrative; they care about "inflation expectations" and "real interest rates."
BTC has long ceased to be digital gold; don't fool yourself.
In this round of geopolitical conflict, $BTC moves in sync with crude oil and decouples from gold. Essentially, the market is pricing in "energy inflation → Fed can't cut rates → US dollar real interest rates rise."
Even interest-free assets like gold can't hold up; BTC, with its high volatility, is even less qualified to be a safe haven.
From a mid-term perspective, as long as the Fed remains hawkish, BTC will struggle to have a major bull run.
ETH is worse off than BTC but also more resilient.
ETH has fallen harder than BTC this round, partly due to low gas fees and weak on-chain activity, and partly because of continuous ETF fund outflows. However, $ETH's volatility is naturally higher than BTC's, so once macro conditions turn, its rebound speed can be rocket-like.
$ETH is now suitable as a backup position; dollar-cost averaging is fine, but going all-in? Only if you're prepared to endure a 30% drawdown.
My simple approach is still dollar-cost averaging, but even that requires strategy.
BTC should make up 60% of the total portfolio, bought regularly each month as ballast.
ETH should be 30%, as a flexible asset; the deeper it falls, the more you add.
The remaining 10% in cash is reserved for extreme panic days—like when BTC drops more than 10% in a single day, then manually scoop some up and exit after.BTC ETF funds are blooming on four fronts this week!
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $924 million, and the Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $824 million.
But what’s really noteworthy is that funds are starting to spread out:
The SOL spot ETF had a net inflow of $154 million, and XRP also received $110 million.
Previously, BTC and ETH were the two main channels attracting institutional funds; now SOL and XRP are also beginning to absorb incremental inflows.
This indicates that institutional strategies are changing—not just buying Bitcoin and Ethereum, but seeking new capital outlets across the entire crypto market.
If this trend continues, the market may no longer be a simple unilateral rise of Bitcoin, but rather a sector rotation and broad-based rally.
The flow of funds from top-tier to second-tier coins is a typical signal in the mid-to-late stages of a bull market. But it’s important to be clear-headed: the ETF pools for SOL and XRP are much smaller than BTC/ETH, so while inflows are easy in the short term, withdrawals can cause more intense volatility.
Right now, BTC still needs to hold the 80,000 level; only by stabilizing here can the sentiment driven by ETF inflows be fully realized. If Bitcoin weakens first, the incremental buying in second-tier coins can quickly dissipate.
ETF net inflows represent real institutional capital entering the market, but that doesn’t mean prices will rise in a straight line. Funds can accelerate the rally, but they can also turn around and exit instantly. Don’t blindly go all in on small coins just because funds are flourishing everywhere.1. Trump’s youngest son Barron has withdrawn from public life; Melania: Respect his decision;
2. Holding $149.2 million short position, Wintermute Hyperliquid position returns to profit with $1.73 million unrealized gains recorded;
3. Affecting about $9.3 million in funds, More Markets was attacked, attacker withdrew 15.5 million WFLOW tokens;
4. Bassett refutes concerns over pressure on the US Treasury market;
5. Serenity: Apple unexpectedly becomes a beneficiary of AI infrastructure, with OpenAI and Anthropic both using Mac devices;
6. Binance Futures launches 5 USDT perpetual trading pairs including TEM, with up to 20x leverage;
7. Iran denies attack on Khark Island, calls Trump’s post "ridiculous";
8. In the past 30 days, 25 traders on the fomo platform have made $1 million in profits;
9. Tether CEO questions BIS’s push for tokenized bank deposits, stating stablecoins are almost fully backed by US Treasuries;
10. After holding SOL for one year, a trader lost $2.2 million and sold 31,862 SOL tokens.After the sharp drop, don't rush to take sides.
This morning's plunge saw a significant scale of long liquidations, with BTC dipping around 77500 and ETH falling below 2400. The news talks about geopolitical tensions and a hawkish stance from Walsh, but the market action looks more like a concentrated cleanup of high-leverage positions. What really matters is not the extent of the drop, but the bottoming points: BTC hasn't broken below the previous low area, ETH is supported around 2400, and volume has since contracted, indicating that passive selling pressure has mostly been released. Both on and off the market, there's little willingness to push further down at this level.
Shorting now has mediocre cost-effectiveness; downside space is held by support, and if US stock sentiment recovers and the CME gap remains, a rebound could come quickly. For BTC, focus on the 76800-77500 range; if it climbs back above 78500, short-term bears should be cautious. For ETH, watch 2400—if it holds, look toward 2450; if it breaks, test 2350 again. Gold/XAUT hasn't moved erratically, which actually suggests that the safe-haven hasn't completely lost control and funds haven't fled one-sidedly, allowing BTC to catch its breath. Don't rush into altcoins and small caps; without stabilization on the main line, it's hard for them to show independent strength.
Large liquidation numbers often correspond to extreme sentiment, which is not a reason to bottom-fish immediately, but also not a comfortable zone for shorting. Waiting for structural confirmation and volume-price coordination is more stable than rushing in based on feeling. This is not investment advice. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Whether in the morning or afternoon during the day, Zhipeng reminds that the entry points for BTC are very well timed, and it has now successfully reached them. For friends who have kept up with the rhythm, this rebound has allowed BTC to directly capture a maximum space of 1400 points.
From the current market situation, after this round of rally, BTC has firmly stood above the 78000 mark, and support has been established. It is expected that it will continue to test the upper resistance levels.
Friends who still hold long positions can maintain good defense and continue to aim higher to take a chance; of course, securing profits is also a wise choice.
$BTC $ETH $CORE Many people still saw orders on Planet showing "CORE in 8 months to reach 5–15U" ordering orders. Two weeks ago, I cut my CORE position from 11% to 3%. Friends said I missed out, and I said I was just repaying the debt of "believing in narrative but not data." 1. Focus on data first, not on intuition. As of 2026-08-27, CORE's current price is around $0.026: a -99.5% drawdown from the historical high of $6.14 in February 2023. On July 27, it hit a low of $0.0167, rebounded about +28% over the past 7 days, but still slightly negative on the 30th. Circulating supply is about 1.26 billion / cap is 2.1 billion, market cap is $33 million, ranking outside the top 600, with a 24-hour trading volume of $3.9 million. Small coin depth, extremely low pin insertion cost. Correlation with BTC price is about 0.88, unable to break out of an independent market on its own. On August 21, non-custodial BTC staking was launched, and on-chain TVL rebounded about +25% in 30 days, with daily active users around 8,000. After the data was discussed, the conclusion was thrown first: the rebound is a real rebound, but there is zero evidence for a reversal. II. Three counterintuitive points (the core of highly liked posts on Planet) 1) "Ecosystem warming" does not mean "token prices should rise." TVL increased by 25%, BTC staking went live, which sounds positive. But the token model changed to "buy back CORE with BTCFi yields"—buyback ≠ burning, and whether the yield scale can cover the monthly line$ZORA continues to surge, but how far can this rally go?👀
$ZORA has been climbing recently, but selling pressure near $0.011 has started to appear, and resistance above is gradually increasing.
The token's circulating supply is quite large, and many traders were caught in the earlier sharp drop. Once they collectively break even and exit, potential selling pressure could be significant.
Looking at CAP and BEAT, it is not recommended to bet on short positions today. Neither coin has shown clear strong momentum, and uncertainty remains high.
⚠️This is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. The myth of continuous inflows into Bitcoin ETFs quietly came to a halt at the end of August. Data shows that after nine consecutive days of net inflows and a cumulative absorption of over three billion dollars, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $201.9 million on August 28. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price faced resistance at the $80,000 mark and retreated to around $77,000, creating a dual convergence of price and capital flow.
The real highlight is that the funds did not exit the market but shifted direction. The Ethereum spot ETF has maintained continuous net inflows since August 11, with a record single-week inflow of about $697 million this month; XRP recorded its largest single-week ETF inflow since 2026. This may suggest that institutions are not bearish on crypto assets but are rebalancing and diversifying during the consolidation phase of the leading assets.
A single day's outflow is not enough to confirm a trend reversal, but combined with price plateauing at high levels, the capital flow in the coming trading days will be more indicative. In the short term, caution is needed regarding pullback momentum, while in the medium term, attention should be paid to whether capital rotation can bring healthier market breadth.🧡
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; the above is only an objective data analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions prudently. $BTC $ETH#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
The AI earnings relay race continues with the second round this week.
NVIDIA already broke the hardware ceiling last week; this week it's Dell, Broadcom, and Snowflake turning in their results. These three companies cover the remaining links in the AI hardware chain: one assembles servers, one makes network chips, and one handles cloud data.
No matter how well NVIDIA's GPUs sell, someone has to put them into servers—that's Dell's job. How data transfers between GPUs is Broadcom's responsibility. After AI models run, where the data is stored is Snowflake's domain. Their earnings reports can answer a question even more important than NVIDIA's—whether AI money can flow beyond GPUs and reach everyone along the entire industry chain.
If Dell and Broadcom's performance also reflects AI orders, it means AI hardware demand isn't just revolving around GPUs but is indeed expanding outward. If Snowflake's data demand keeps pace, AI is no longer just in the hardware procurement phase but is entering data processing and commercial application stages.
For the crypto community, the significance of this week's earnings is simple—if AI money flows to more hands, the entire tech sector benefits, and crypto, as a high-beta asset, will get a share. If NVIDIA dominates alone, then the AI rally is structural, and crypto markets will benefit less individually.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $SOL Perhaps another piece of evidence that a bull market is coming: DeFi active lending volume grew about 30% from $20.1B in June to $26.1B in August, with Aave at around $12.5B, Morpho about $5.1B, and Spark about $2.1B. This indicates that on-chain credit demand is indeed recovering, because when the market rises, users are more willing to borrow, leverage, and engage in yield strategies, and $AAVE, as the largest lending protocol, directly benefited from this wave of capital expansion.
Of course, although lending growth reflects real demand in DeFi, it also brings back liquidation risks. The larger the lending volume, the more users and collateral are exposed to price volatility.
Therefore, when looking at lending protocols, what really matters is the quality of borrowers, the quality of collateral, and liquidation efficiency.
If growth comes from high-quality stablecoins and mainstream asset collateral, the risks are more controllable;
If growth comes from low-liquidity alts and high LTV, the boom may just be piling up future liquidations prematurely Correlation indicators have changed: BTC is gradually aligning with gold, while ETH remains tied to tech risk assets.
Looking at rolling data over the past 90 days, BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq is weakening, and its linkage with gold is strengthening; ETH, however, still closely follows Nasdaq risk appetite and has not truly decoupled. This indicates that in institutional portfolios, BTC is beginning to be partially allocated as a "digital gold/debt hedge" asset, whereas ETH is still treated as a high-beta growth tech asset, more directly influenced by AI, interest rates, risk sentiment, and on-chain activity.
But note, a narrative shift does not mean short-term immunity to macro factors. When U.S. Treasury real yields rise, the dollar strengthens, or liquidity tightens, both gold and BTC can be pressured together; ETH is more sensitive to tech stock sentiment, so a Nasdaq pullback will trigger capital outflows. In the long term, U.S. fiscal expansion and fiat credit dilution favor BTC, but in the short term, pricing is still driven by the Fed's path, inflation expectations, and liquidity.
In practice, don't buy solely based on the "safe haven" label. While correlation changes are worth noting, position sizing and stop-losses should be more focused on interest rates and volatility. This is not investment advice. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The true bear market bottom for BTC is never the lowest price❗
Suppose the market crashes to 70,000, but the comment section is all about "how long until it returns to 100,000," and spot and futures are still fighting for a rebound. This looks more like a downtrend continuation, not the bottom. The real bottom usually appears when no one wants to look at the candlestick charts: the community is silent, creators stop updating, leverage is continuously cleared, and even the bears are too lazy to shout. That's when sentiment is near its extreme.
Technically, you can look at on-chain realized profits and losses, long-term holder positions, exchange net flows, and stablecoin supply, but the core is still popularity and belief. As long as the majority still believe "this time is different" and bottom-fishing funds keep flowing in, the selling pressure isn't over. Historically, BTC's major bottoms often come with "price not yet stopped falling, but despair arrives first," followed by consolidation accumulation and slow recovery.
Of course, contrarian investing is not blindly catching a falling knife; position sizing and stop-losses must be set in advance. The bottom is a range, not a single pinpoint. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 This afternoon, I switched back and forth between seven or eight coins. BTC showed no obvious momentum, so I checked $ETH; ETH was still waiting for structure, so I looked for smaller coins with greater volatility. Seeing $ZORA rising, I studied whether I could chase it; noticing abnormal funding rates and basis, I switched to ZK. $ZK showed a low-level bottom formation on the 15-minute chart, and I found entry points on the 5-minute and 1-minute charts. Initially, there was some floating profit, but then I started repeatedly switching timeframes and adjusting stop losses. The stop loss was raised from 0.008907 to 0.009145, then to 0.009240, and finally to 0.009319. The stop loss was triggered in the end. After reviewing, I realized that the biggest problem today was not completely misreading the direction, nor was it that the stop loss shouldn't have been set. Rather, I never truly traded the same logic consistently. First, it's not that I couldn't pick coins, but that I was always searching for coins that were "about to rise". Every time I saw the current target entering consolidation, I felt it had no chance. Switching to another page, seeing a candlestick rising, I thought that's where the action was. But what I often saw was not the start of a move, but a move already underway. On the surface, I was screening targets, but in reality, I was chasing the latest volatility. Before a coin's structure was confirmed, I was already studying the next coin. In the end, I looked at seven or eight coins but didn't truly understand any of them. Second, I opened positions based on the 15-minute chart but managed positions on the 1-minute chart. For the ZK trade, I originally based it on the 15-minute structure. 15🔥$ETH at $2445, should you rush in now?
Brothers, ETH has returned to $2450, with this rebound close to 30%. It’s consolidating at a high level with intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Don’t rush to take sides yet. Peel back the surface to see the essence; this round of the market hides many counterintuitive details. Understanding them gives you a chance to profit, missing them could easily trap you at the peak.
📊 Current Market Situation
In mid-August, ETH violently rebounded from $1850, reaching a high of $2565.
Recently, it has been fluctuating narrowly between $2400 and $2500, with volatility under $100.
$2400 has been defended multiple times, while above $2500 it repeatedly faces selling pressure.
The longer this consolidation lasts, the closer a breakout is. This kind of oscillation is prone to stop-loss hunting, so be very cautious.
First: ETF keeps buying $1.4 billion, why isn’t the price rising? Don’t be fooled by “stagnant gains.”
The US spot ETH ETF has had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling about $1.4 billion, with BlackRock as the main force, nearly $200 million in a single day.
This is institutional passive allocation, not retail FOMO speculation.
Funds are continuously flowing in, yet the price has fallen from $2565 to $2445.
The essence is retail chasing price action on candlesticks, while institutions quietly accumulate chips.
This stagnation could be a buildup before a rally or a trap set by the main players. Do not simply interpret it as a guaranteed rise.
Second: Two easily overlooked invisible fundamental positives
1️⃣ Staking rate has soared to 34%, with almost zero exit queue.
More than one-third of ETH is locked in staking contracts earning interest, so market selling pressure is very low. The circulating float on exchanges keeps shrinking, so even small buy orders can push the price up.
2️⃣ BlackRock’s Staking ETF (ETHB) launched
Institutional allocation logic has changed: no longer just speculating on price moves, but holding digital assets with coupon-like yields.
About 3% staking yield plus price appreciation expectations make it very attractive to pension funds and family offices with large capital.
Third: Macro heavy-handed suppression, short-term pressure on all risk assets
The Fed’s hawkish stance. New Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole was hawkish, stating underlying inflation trends are not yet met and anti-inflation efforts must continue.
The market raised the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to 50-60%, strengthening the dollar. BTC fell from 81,000 to 77,000, and ETH is under pressure in sync.
Risk point: If September CPI again exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations rise further, ETH could retest $2300 or even lower.
Fourth: US-Iran conflict flares up again, geopolitical risks continue to disturb the market.
The Strait of Hormuz is a global energy choke point; escalation will push oil prices higher, further raising inflation expectations and forcing the Fed to maintain high rates.
Currently, crypto assets behave more like high-beta risk assets; intensified conflict will amplify market spikes and liquidation risks, making ETH’s volatility more severe than BTC’s.
If the situation escalates further, the probability of downside retest increases; if the conflict cools quickly, risk appetite will recover, benefiting the rebound.
🎯 Practical Strategy
Short-term
Light long positions near $2410 on pullback, stop loss below $2380.
First target $2450, second target $2500
Swing
Better entry points are on pullbacks to $2400 or even lower; not recommended to enter directly at mid-level $2445.
Wait for volume breakout and stable hold at $2520-$2565, reclaiming previous highs, then consider adding positions on the right side, targeting $2750.
🔴 Risk Control Red Line:
If daily close falls below $2300 combined with continuous ETF outflows, decisively reduce swing long positions and wait. Protecting principal is key for the next opportunity.
Summary:
Currently, bulls and bears are fiercely battling, and the direction will soon become clear. Don’t be swayed by emotions; watch key price levels and prepare for both scenarios.
ETH’s mid-to-long-term story is not over, but timing is far more important than direction. Also, keep a close eye on sudden developments in the Middle East.
What’s your view? Share your price points in the comments👇 The hawkish tone from Wash at Jackson Hole last week has not yet faded, and employment data is already at the doorstep—this Friday night, the August nonfarm payroll report will be unveiled. This is the last heavyweight employment data before the September rate decision, and Wash has personally rewritten the market's rules for interpreting it.
The market expects August nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 55,000 to 58,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. July data unexpectedly turned negative, but initial jobless claims were only 203,000, indicating a delicate balance of "no hiring, no firing" in the labor market.
However, more critical than the numbers themselves is how Wash defines these figures. At Jackson Hole, he clearly stated that inflation remains the core challenge, and current policy is not evidently restrictive; the labor market is "in good health," and the 4.1% unemployment rate aligns with full employment. This hawkish stance has pushed the probability of a September rate hike to nearly 60%.
More importantly, Wash has overturned the previous "scoring rules"—the old formula of "weak employment means rate cuts" has been dismantled. Under his framework, employment is not a clear issue; inflation is the variable that determines rate hikes. Only if employment "significantly deteriorates" might a rate hike be stopped. As analysts say, Wash has reversed the "burden of proof" for rate hikes: in the past, one had to prove why to continue hiking; now, data must prove why not to hike.
As a result, the market will see from the nonfarm data just how seriously the Federal Reserve is preparing to pull the trigger in September. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC $ETH $OKB $BTC 79,400 met resistance and pulled back; why is this considered just a minor correction in an uptrend?
$BTC is reported at $78,589, up 0.5% in 24 hours, after hitting a high of 79,401 and then pulling back to a low of 77,000; ETH is at 2,452, slightly down 0.3%; total crypto market cap is 2.64 trillion. The price is stuck between the previous high near 80,000 and support at 77,000, consolidating throughout the day.
Conclusion first: this is just a minor correction within an uptrend, not a trend reversal. Three reasons— the long-term downtrend line was broken long ago, the big picture is bullish; hourly highs and lows are still rising, the last low was not broken, so the market is still in the final consolidation phase of the last upward move; weekly-level major correction waves happen at the end stage, which is not the case now.
But at this position, chasing either longs or shorts is not appropriate. The previous high above is a weekly support-resistance flip zone and a consensus area for bullish patterns; the recent bullish breakout signal was immediately overwhelmed by larger supply, so selling pressure is real; below, there are also wick rejections supporting the price. The price is stuck in the middle of the range, making long entries less cost-effective and short entries counter-trend.
One detail to note: support is not a single point but a zone. Yesterday’s assumed neckline supply zone is expanding as continuous wick demand zones grow, so support should shift downward—don’t try to catch a falling knife at a fixed price.
Two paths to prepare for in advance:
Hold 77,000 → consolidation continues, wait for the correction to form a bottom structure before going long again, target retesting 79,400, then look toward 80,000;
Break 77,000 with volume and weak rebound → short-term structure ends, then we can talk about a major correction wave; the truly high-value long entry zone will be around 70,000–72,000 in the previous dense area, no rush to enter now.
Support is a zone, not a point; opportunities come from waiting, not chasing.
Do you think 77,000 will hold? Is this a minor correction shakeout or the first step of a major correction? Share your price level in the comments.Sun Yuchen has urgently left Hong Kong.
HTX users who have leftover coins or cash are advised to consider withdrawing to self-custody first; do not treat "trust" as risk control. Market memory is sharp; those who were slow to run during the FTX incident basically became case studies. The liquidity window never waits for anyone. Public data shows the platform disclosed liabilities of about 6.9 billion USD, with on-chain verifiable assets around 4.25 billion USD. The gap in between is not a small number. Even if there are later explanations or restructuring, the user side will first bear withdrawal frictions and emotional runs.
The current focus is not only on Huobi's hole but also on his own compliance and political risks. There are rumors about repairing the image and seeking easing relations with the US side. Concepts like WLFI, which carry the Trump family color, have also been brought up for association, but the slight token price movement indicates the market is also watching and will not truly endorse anyone.
For ordinary users, just one sentence: exchanges are not safes, especially when there are rumors, gaps, or key personnel changes. Reduce exposure first. Move coins to cold wallets, pause contracts and financial products first, and don't gamble on announcements. Whether the platform can survive is the platform's business; your principal must be self-protected. This is not investment advice; information should be based on official on-chain data/announcements. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The biggest variable in the crypto market this week isn't the price action, it's the Federal Reserve.
The Jackson Hole meeting took a hawkish turn, directly pushing BTC down from 81,000 to 77,700.
Warsh's original words translated into plain language: inflation at 3.7% is still too high, don't expect me to ease soon. After hearing this, the market's probability of a rate hike in September surged from 35% to 56%, the dollar strengthened, US Treasury yields rose, and BTC, as a non-yielding asset, was the first to get hammered.
But interestingly, ETH ETFs are still seeing inflows (positive inflows for 10 consecutive days), SOL's deflation proposal passed, and whales are bottom-fishing BTC (increasing holdings by 39,000 coins, about 3 billion USD, in one week). Smart money is buying the dip, retail investors are panic selling.
Comparing to the US stock market: Nvidia's earnings report showed revenue of 96.2 billion, beating expectations, and AI infrastructure is advancing at full speed. But crypto is being suppressed by the hawkish Fed. Fundamentals are improving, macro is suppressing, this is the core contradiction currently.
Key signal this week: can BTC hold the 76,000 to 77,000 moving average support zone? If it holds and ETF inflows resume, it can counterattack; if not, watch 74,500 then 72,000.
Fundamentals aren't bad, it's macro that's hammering. Macro suppression is temporary, fundamentals improvement is long-term. Endure and you win. 🚨 $ETH really has no "dark horse" this time—there are no dark horses, only fairy tales.
Long $ETH position at 2458, after sleeping it directly dropped below 2400, position gone.
The most ridiculous thing is, I still can't figure out: people are fighting thousands of miles away, how did my position get wiped out too? 😂
But honestly, this time my mindset is calmer than before.
I've said countless times I want to change my "greed," but every time the market heats up, I still can't help it.
Since $TRUMP started crashing again, I won't pretend anymore—Trump causes trouble, so I short Trump directly. 😂
And I don't think this drop is sudden.
On September 18, about 28.7 million $TRUMP will unlock, which at the current price corresponds to roughly $77 million potential selling pressure. After unlocking, market pressure may only become more obvious.
What's more noteworthy is that the team transferred TRUMP unidirectionally into the Meteora liquidity pool the day before yesterday, and today they withdrew USDC.
Currently, there's no clear direct evidence of dumping, but this kind of operation at least makes it hard for me not to overthink: are they providing liquidity, or slowly cashing out in another way?
Since the dog whales want to sell, don't blame me for playing along.
This time I won't be the bag holder. 😅
#DailyOrbit