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Last week looked like the market finally remembered how to go up. This week looks like the hangover. BTC, ETH, and SOL all ripped hard off the mid-August lows, tagged levels nobody had seen since spring, and then ran straight into Jackson Hole. Kevin Warsh didn’t whisper. He talked like another rate hike is still on the table. Risk assets flinched. That’s the tape you’re trading now not the highlight reel from last Tuesday. BTC is sitting around $78,100 after kissing $81k and getting rejected. T#BTC high-level oscillation, with strengthened linkage to gold $BTC After a surge, it is grinding back and forth at a high level. Recently, the linkage with gold has clearly strengthened. The 90-day correlation has risen above 50%, while it was almost 0 at the beginning of the year. In contrast, the correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped from over 60% to about 33%. U.S. debt has broken 40 trillion, fiscal pressure is high, devaluation trades are resurfacing, and capital is beginning to reprice BTC's scarcity attribute. Volatility is still much greater than gold; during this high-level oscillation phase, focus first on key support levels and avoid chasing highs. $XAU Bearish/Risk Signals:
● Unreleased selling pressure not fully absorbed: Although the initial 911.5 million shares unlocked did not trigger panic selling, millions of shares are still scheduled to unlock on August 20, September, and October, keeping supply pressure looming overhead.
● Extremely expensive valuation: The current P/S ratio is as high as 76x, and the AI business requires about $6.18 in capital investment to generate every $1 of revenue. Without full profitability yet, the market is paying a very high premium for the grand narrative of "Space + AI" in the future.
Elon Musk's remarks as a catalyst: Musk recently stated clearly that "AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's valuation within 5 years," which leads investors to re-evaluate SpaceX using the pricing logic of computing infrastructure companies, providing a new valuation anchor.
Summary:
Overall, SpaceX is currently in a tug-of-war between "short covering driving a rebound" and "high valuation facing unlocking pressure." Between August 31 and September 1, SpaceX is very likely to oscillate and consolidate within the 135 - 150 range. If the price can break out with volume and hold above 150**, it is expected to confirm a trend reversal and challenge the 158 target; conversely, if it falls below the 135 support due to unlocking expectations or profit-taking, it may retest support near **120. Investors are advised to closely monitor the actual trading volume on subsequent unlocking dates and the capital expenditure guidance of the AI business $SPCX Nine consecutive days of inflows suddenly stopped! $200 million fled from the $BTC ETF, what are institutions afraid of?
BTC spot ETF saw net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, abruptly ending on August 28 with an outflow of 201.9 million.
In those nine days, firms like BlackRock queued up to pour money in, driving BTC from over 60,000 to 80,000, but on the day of the hawkish speech by Powell, the money started to flee.
The timing is too coincidental: hawkish remarks → rate cut expectations dashed → risk assets retreat → ETF outflows, the logical chain is complete.
But don’t panic, the 200 million outflow is just a drop compared to the cumulative net inflows of hundreds of millions. Institutions are not bearish; it’s short-term risk aversion.
What really needs attention is the next two weeks: if outflows continue to expand, it means institutions are truly retreating, causing avalanche selling pressure above 80,000; if it turns positive in a few days, it’s just a reflex to the hawkish shock.
BTC is currently at 77,700, and ETF fund flows are a short-term directional compass. Watching Farside data daily is even more useful than looking at candlesticks.Brothers, this week the market's upstream and downstream of the same AI narrative showed completely opposite trends!
Nvidia's earnings report revenue crushed expectations at 96.2 billion USD, AI infrastructure is advancing at full speed; but the crypto market was hit hard by the Fed's hawkish stance, with $BTC dropping from 81,000 to 77,700. One has strong fundamentals, the other strong macro narrative.
On Nvidia's $xNVDA side: data center revenue was 89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, Q3 guidance at 108 billion, Vera Rubin's top clients have all placed orders. Jensen Huang said next year can still grow 70%, with 2 trillion USD in orders to be executed. This is not just a company's earnings report, it's a health check report for the entire AI industry chain, and the conclusion is healthy.
On the crypto side: after 3 billion inflows in 9 days, ETF turned to 200 million outflows, Warsh's hawkish stance pushed the probability of a September rate hike to 56%. BTC dropped from 81,000 to 77,700, with 488 million USD liquidated across the market. But whales are bottom-fishing, ETH ETF is still seeing inflows, and the SOL deflation proposal passed.
The divergence won't last long. Nvidia has proven AI demand hasn't cooled off, macro suppression is temporary. Once the Fed softens its stance or ETF inflows resume, crypto will catch up. Right now, BTC's pricing power is in the hands of macro, not fundamentals.
Focus on three things: whether ETF data returns to positive inflows today, whether BTC can hold between 76,000 and 77,000, and inflation data before the September rate meeting. If data beats expectations, everything will reverse. ● Pattern Breakout and Institutional Entry: ZEC has strongly broken out of the "cup and handle" pattern that lasted for several months on the weekly chart, reaching an eight-year high. Meanwhile, Grayscale's spot ZEC ETF (ZCSH) has officially launched on the NYSE, providing a compliant channel for institutional capital and bringing sustained buying support.
● Fundamental Bullish Factors: The NU7 protocol upgrade vote for Zcash is underway, large-scale mining and accumulation plans by institutions such as Cypherpunk Technologies, and the increasingly scarce supply all jointly support its bullish thesis.
● Bearish/Risk Signals:
● Extreme Overbought: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is as high as 84.45, far exceeding the overbought warning line of 70. Historical experience shows that prices tend to experience technical pullbacks or a slowdown in upward momentum after entering this zone.
● Profit Taking: There is a slight net outflow of spot holdings on exchanges, indicating that some funds chose to take profits after the breakout.
● Overheated Futures Market: ZEC perpetual contract open interest has nearly doubled in a short period, and the funding rate is positive, indicating crowded long positions. This high-leverage environment increases the risk of severe market volatility (such as long liquidations).
$ZEC Robinhood is trying to wrest the meme coin craze away from Solana and re-anchor it to the Ethereum ecosystem. The logic behind this is straightforward: Solana won retail investors not because of superior technology, but because Ethereum is too expensive and cumbersome for small traders. Robinhood's entry conveniently addresses this pain point with low-cost trading and easy issuance, bringing gas fees and settlement back onto the Ethereum track.
What’s more intriguing is that, unlike most new public chains supported only by narratives, tokenized stocks provide another retention reason—users can freely switch between meme coins and stocks, even earning stock rewards through fees. This cross-market liquidity design motivates users not to "come and go," but to stay long-term.
In the short term, direct fees remain limited, but if retail activity and liquidity gradually migrate back to Ethereum’s settlement layer, it will be structurally positive for $ETH and implicitly pressuring for $SOL. The outcome won’t be decided overnight but depends on who can continuously retain that most fickle small capital.
Risk warning: Market narrative shifts are uncertain, and cross-chain migration speed may fall short of expectations. Please view this rationally. $ETH $SOL$BTC
Brothers, the core focus this week is just one thing—Nonfarm Payrolls.
This is the last employment data before the September interest rate decision. It will be released on Friday, and the market is currently betting on expectations.
The market impact can be divided into three scenarios:
Nonfarm exceeds expectations: rate hike expectations intensify, BTC might retrace to 75,000 or even 72,000
Nonfarm meets expectations: volatility, unclear direction
Nonfarm falls short of expectations: rate cut expectations intensify, BTC might rebound above 82,000
BTC is now hovering around 78,000, the key is where it goes after the Nonfarm data is released.
ETH is more elastic, rising sharply on good news and falling hard on bad news, waiting around 2,480 for direction.
SAND’s logic differs from BTC and ETH; it not only watches interest rates but also how funds move within the AI sector. Poor Nonfarm data doesn’t necessarily mean a rise, nor does good data necessarily mean a fall—it depends on market interpretation.
Before the data comes out, don’t bet on direction #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC breaks below $79K — but the funds have not disappeared
$BTC lost the $79K level, $ETH followed with a decline, and ETFs saw capital outflows. As interest rate expectations become less favorable, cryptocurrencies are being repriced.
But storage chip stocks tell a different story.
$MU, $SNDK, and AI infrastructure are still supported by structural HBM/NAND demand.
This divergence is important:
Cryptocurrencies are sold off due to valuation.
AI is bought due to real demand.
If this gap persists, the story may not be "reduced risk appetite" — but rather a shift of funds toward tangible growth. Talking About Bitcoin: Understanding the Bull-Bear Divergence in the Market and Managing Your Own Trading Rhythm
After a significant rebound, the discussion heat within the community surged instantly. Optimistic friends cite ETF capital inflows, macro liquidity expectations, and on-chain long-term holding positions to express optimism; cautious participants also observe short-term profit-taking and a large accumulation of positions in the futures market, worrying that the market may enter a phase of consolidation and digestion.
There is no absolutely correct view in the market; everyone receives different information, so naturally, perspectives on the market vary. The market will not move according to anyone’s subjective expectations. What we can do is observe various signals, organize our own response strategies, rather than firmly predict future rises or falls.
Let's first talk about the driving forces behind this round of price increases. Part of this upward movement comes from passive buying caused by the liquidation of short positions in the futures market. A large number of short positions being liquidated generates buying power, quickly pushing prices up. However, this type of market has a characteristic: it is not entirely driven by continuous new funds entering from outside. Once short positions are mostly digested, to continue the upward trend, real new capital must enter to support it. If incremental funds lag behind, once some profit-taking occurs, the market can easily enter a consolidation phase.
Bitcoin spot ETFs are a key indicator many people focus on. Continuous capital inflows previously provided strong emotional support to the market. Recently, however, the intensity of inflows has changed, with occasional single-day outflows, reflecting that institutional views are not unified; not everyone remains optimistic.
Here, a reminder: single-day inflows or outflows cannot directly determine a trend reversal. It is necessary to observe overall capital flows over a longer period for more valuable reference. Judging based on single-day data alone can easily lead to bias.
Next, let's look at on-chain changes. After prices rise, many short-term holders transfer assets from cold wallets to exchanges, a typical profit-taking behavior. However, large whale addresses holding long-term have not shown large-scale selling. Simply put, short-term participants cash out profits during the rebound, while long-term holders continue to hold, completing chip exchanges at high levels.
When short-term selling pressure exceeds new buying funds, the market will enter a prolonged consolidation phase. We can continue to monitor on-chain trends: if a large amount of long-term chips move to exchanges, market risks should be watched closely; if large amounts of chips are withdrawn from exchanges, it indicates long-term funds remain optimistic.
The futures market is also an important factor. After a big rise, many chasing positions accumulate on both long and short sides. Even small market fluctuations can trigger concentrated liquidations, causing sharp price spikes.
During consolidation, the margin for error in short-term trading becomes very small. Many friends try to catch every price move with frequent trades. But when direction is unclear, frequent operations can quickly erode capital through fees and repeated stop losses. Often, it’s not that the market is hard to understand, but emotions driven by short-term moves lead to impulsive actions.
For those holding spot assets, maintain a calm mindset. Don’t insist on selling at the highest point. During high-level consolidation, you can realize part of your floating profits in batches, securing gains while keeping some base positions to continue observing market changes.
If key support levels hold, you can continue holding; if key supports are effectively broken, actively adjust your positions. Don’t stubbornly hold on or hope for an immediate V-shaped reversal.
For those not yet in the market, don’t be swept up by fear of missing out. Don’t rush to enter just because prices fall. The crypto market never lacks opportunities; there’s no need to fear missing this wave. You can patiently wait for stabilization signals or a pullback to a price range you consider cost-effective before considering phased participation.
For futures traders, respect the market even more at this stage. Consolidation phases often have frequent price spikes; avoid using high leverage. Don’t bet against the trend. If the market direction is unclear, choosing to stay out and rest is also a reasonable trading choice.
Many people in crypto ultimately lose not because they don’t understand charts, but because they lose to their own emotions. When prices rise, greed emerges, wanting to capture the entire move; when prices fall, fear dominates, leading to hasty exits.
Capital safety is the foundation for long-term market participation. We don’t need to force ourselves to guess the market’s next move. Instead of obsessing over predicting rises or falls, it’s better to plan in advance how to respond under different market conditions. Don’t be swayed by various opinions in the community; maintain your own trading rhythm, manage positions and risks well—that is what truly matters.
$BTC $ETH Another lesson I want everyone to remember is how gold's performance and volatility shift risk from a store of value to software assets, essentially representing a risk-on versus risk-off environment. In our era, we have the same system but in the cryptocurrency field, risk-off is Bitcoin, risk-on is altcoins, and according to DVOL we can identify when a risk shift might occur.
For more background, I recommend reading another article, but to keep it brief, gold's tops and bottoms have always been reset points for investors' shifts in risk preference. Now, after we've identified gold's top, what I see is simply sideways movement; downward or upward volatility will further favor innovative assets, while gold remains relatively cool and neutral because everyone has forgotten this expansion move, which will happen at some point before the next extension move. But before that, risk assets will thrive.
Currently, the most interesting area is cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has maintained a high range between 50,000 and 100,000 for months, while DVOL continues to rebound from the 35–40 range, which corresponds to the 10 range on the VIX. This means a shift in investor preference is imminent, moving from store of value (like gold) back to software—in this case, altcoins—with a target from 75 to 105. Anywhere in that range, altcoins will struggle to outperform Bitcoin, but the risk will be high because they are shifting to another risk regime before reverting back to Bitcoin.
The moral of the story is that Bitcoin is like gold. Just as gold triggers volatility shifts that trigger risk shifts, Bitcoin is undergoing the same in our era, and we can expect to see the same environment in the coming years.#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 这周，真正的大戏不是K线，而是就业数据扎堆落地。 📌 周二晚：JOLTS职位空缺 📌 周三：ADP私营就业 📌 周五：8月非农 📌 9月11日：CPI 📌 9月15–16日：FOMC 这一连串数据，很可能直接决定市场接下来怎么交易美联储政策。 沃什在杰克逊霍尔的核心观点其实很明确： 就业已经接近“充分就业”。 失业率从 4.2%降至4.1%，愿意工作的人整体还能找到工作或保住工作；与此同时，劳动力供给几乎没有明显增加，所以新增就业自然不会特别高。 再看7月非农： - 非农就业：-2.3万 - 私营部门：+3万 - 政府部门：-5.3万 - 失业率：4.2% → 4.1% 也就是说，表面上就业市场没有崩，但结构已经出现了一些变化。 更值得关注的是，沃什并没有把“就业”放在唯一的位置。 他的政策排序里，通胀依然是重要约束。 目前PCE仍然偏高，如果后续工资和通胀再次表现得比较顽固，那么市场对9月政策收紧的预期就很难快速降温。 现在市场已经把9月加息概率推到了大约五成六至六成附近，而高盛的基准判断仍然是按兵不动。 所以我认为： 真正检验沃什的$AVGO Broadcom, you better step up this week, I got in at 355 waiting for you.
Last week, Nvidia $NVDA's earnings report exploded, reigniting the whole AI chip sentiment, and Broadcom also rose nearly 4% that day. Buying around 355 felt pretty comfortable; I should be able to just watch it climb slowly.
Now the more exciting part is coming: Broadcom $xAVGO's own earnings report is after the market closes this Wednesday.
Nvidia has already proven that the big AI companies are still pouring money in, and now the market is waiting to see if that money continues flowing into ASICs and AI networks. Recently, big players like Google and OpenAI are getting more serious about developing their own chips, which actually suits Broadcom well—you don’t necessarily have to compete with Nvidia for GPUs; you can work alongside the big companies making their own chips.
Nvidia has already warmed up the stage for you, I got in early at 355, so on Wednesday, you better perform well and deliver a great report. Don’t give me another "great earnings but no stock price increase" situation. This time, it’s really Broadcom’s turn to shine.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 BTC bleeding, ETH resisting the dip — is capital quietly shifting?
BTC ETF ended nine consecutive days of inflows, with a net outflow of about $202 million yesterday, and the price remained suppressed below $80,000. Meanwhile, ETH ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $824 million and a monthly inflow of $1.42 billion, hitting a new high since last August, showing a clear capital preference toward ETH.
The market also confirms this divergence: ETH fluctuated near 2450 with a controllable decline, relatively resistant to the drop. Some funds are moving from BTC to ETH.
If ETH can continuously hold the 2388 support and ETF inflows remain strong, the ETH/BTC rate may continue to strengthen, and ETH is expected to outperform BTC in subsequent rebounds; conversely, if BTC continues to decline dragging the overall market down, ETH will also struggle to stay strong.
In short: BTC is weak and consolidating, ETH is gearing up — keep a close eye on the strength changes of ETH/BTC.
$ETH $BTC $CORE 8.23 I see there are still 731 million tokens in the 0x000...1000 address, today only 483 million tokens remain, Core dao has released about 250 million tokens, even if all are sold, it would only be over 6 million U, not cost-effective! Really not cost-effective! BTC is holding up while $ETHFI and $SOL weaken, suggesting liquidity is favoring BTC over higher-beta assets.
At ~$78.7K, BTC looks more like a macro hedge than the start of a broad crypto rally.
BTC-gold correlation, US-Iran tensions, and oil risks keep inflation uncertainty elevated.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults 📉 Today's crypto market broadly declines: It's not sentiment, but a repricing On August 31, the total crypto market cap fell about 1%–3% from Sunday's peak, operating around $2.59 trillion–$2.68 trillion. Bitcoin fluctuated near $77,600–$78,100, Ethereum dropped more sharply (about -1.6% to $2,416–$2,438), and altcoins like SOL and XRP generally fell deeper.  This is not a single negative factor but several layers of logic stacked together. 🏦 1. Macro main cause: Jackson Hole dismantled the "Looking back, gold has reached its current level, and in hindsight, it truly feels like a thought-provoking story of growth. From around $1,000 to now above $5,000, the price has multiplied several times, but what's even more interesting is the market's attitude toward it. In the past, gold jewelry was often labeled "tacky," but today it has become a fashionable item favored by young women; Those who bought at $1,000 were secretly mocked by those around them, but time has ultimately given them the answer. This process from being despised to being admired actually hides many details about market psychology. Nowadays, any financial platform opens up various voices discussing gold's belief logic—geopolitical conflicts, war risks, value preservation needs—with a clear and confident tone as if they had foreseen everything. But if we look back at history, we'll find an interesting phenomenon: when an asset has risen to a high level, those who were once silent suddenly become especially talkative, and all kinds of grand narratives emerge, as if the reasons for the rise are naturally so strong. This isn't necessarily a bad thing; it just reminds us that emotions and narratives often lag behind the price itself. Back to Bitcoin: its current price hovers around $79,000, still a long way from the distant $500,000 goal many people aspire to. But the story of gold may offer some insight: the reshaping of asset value is often not just about rising numbers, but about the gradual penetration of cognition and discourse power. When an asset is truly accepted by the public from the heart, becoming part of a cultural symbol or lifestyle,On Monday morning, global financial markets collectively plunged, triggered by renewed clashes between the US and Iran.
In the early hours of August 31, the US military airstruck Iran's Larak Island, marking the first publicly acknowledged physical military strike by the US since the ceasefire broke down in July.
Unlike Iran's unilateral partial blockade of the Strait in March, this time the US military proactively targeted rocket launchers, prompting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to retaliate with missile launches. The conflict has officially escalated from a simple oil price risk pricing to a two-way direct military confrontation.
💡An intriguing timing background
Recently, Trump signaled willingness to negotiate and open dialogue with Iran.
The underlying reality: US domestic public opinion is war-weary and hopes to end Middle East consumption; stabilizing oil prices to suppress inflation can also help gain public support for the midterm elections.
However, this raid directly shrinks the space for diplomatic negotiations.
A mainstream market speculation is that some forces do not favor a smooth US-Iran reconciliation.
Israel has consistently opposed compromises with Iran; once ceasefire talks succeed, it would undermine the legitimacy of its military actions; hawks within the US also do not want negotiations to proceed smoothly.
The crypto market weakened simultaneously, with BTC falling below the 78,000 mark.
One noteworthy phenomenon: during this round of geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin's movement has been synchronized with crude oil rather than following gold's safe-haven trend. Writing #杠杆不可怕，可怕的是你根本不会用 币圈里，使用杠杆的人很多，最后倒在杠杆上的人也很多。 但我一直认为： 杠杆本身没有错，真正危险的是——你还没有建立完整的投资体系，就先学会了加杠杆。 在我的体系里，杠杆和现货本质上其实是一回事。 最简单的理解，就是买房贷款。 二三十年前，房价足够低，但手里的本金不够，于是通过低成本贷款提前买入优质资产。 如果资产长期上涨，杠杆放大的就是收益。 币圈也是一样。 但我只接受一种杠杆逻辑： 底部区域 + 低倍数 + 借贷型 + 只做多。 不是10倍、20倍开合约天天猜涨跌，更不是靠运气赌下一根K线。 我的逻辑主要分三层。 第一层：先判断长期资产。 如果未来几年我依然看好 ETH/BTC 汇率，那么就以 $ETH 为核心，而不是同时重仓 $BTC 和 $ETH。 只有当 E/B 进入明显的极端区域，我才会考虑在 ETH 和 BTC 之间进行切换。 第二层：判断时间。 我并不执着于“现在到底是牛市还是熊市”。 看看 BTC、ETH 十年周期的表现就会发现： 任何一年都有上涨的月份，也都有下跌的月份。 我要做的不是预测每一次涨跌，而是： 下跌阶段$ETH This morning's move clearly laid out the short-term capital harvesting logic.
The pulse high at 2535 is essentially a liquidity bait quickly set by the main force leveraging market sentiment.
Funds chasing the long positions just entered to take the plate, and the low-position shorts were simultaneously swept out; the leveraged positions on both long and short sides were almost cleared at the same time.
After liquidity was instantly drained, with no new buying support, the market turned into a wave of unresisted sell-off.
The 2450-2460 range is the last buffer zone of this rebound trend.
If it holds, the market will enter a long phase of chip exchange, using time to digest the floating profits brought by this rally; once it breaks down effectively, the technical structure of this rebound will deteriorate directly, and the downside space will fully open.
From a macro perspective, the hawkish tone from Jackson Hole has been continuously fermenting in the market; the pricing for rate cuts in September has significantly retreated, and the rise in US Treasury yields directly suppresses valuations of all risk assets.
Tonight's weak performance in the US pre-market has already reflected the market's cautious sentiment in advance. In this environment, ETH is unlikely to have an independent positive run and will most likely continue to maintain a relatively strong but pressured state following the macro trend.Market maker institution Wintermute currently holds approximately $149.2 million in cryptocurrency short positions, including BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, and others.
Wintermute had previously bought dips in hype, BTC, ETH, and other currencies multiple times in July, but then continuously sold over just two days and increased short positions. Although some short positions were closed before this recent rally, the consolidation remains bearish, and there is a large amount of continuous selling in the spot market.
Wintermute is a well-known market maker in the crypto market with the broadest market-making scope and extremely large amounts.
It was previously called the "Ethereum dark pool" mainly because of its huge ETH holdings, large enough to influence prices.
Wintermute also made significant market-making activity in meme tokens during the early bull phase, such as wif, punt, pepe, aixbt, etc.
The large short positions and spot outflows from such a massive market-making institution like Wintermute also have hedging reasons but also reflect concerns about the future market. After a pause, Strategy has reopened the financing faucet in the equity market, with spot buying and stock issuance entering the market simultaneously.
The latest disclosure shows the company used about $369.7 million to purchase 4,603 bitcoins at an average price of $80,318 each, raising the total holding cost to $75,412.
During the same period, the $603 million ATM fundraising saw some diversion, with about $230 million flowing to preferred stock repurchases, dividends, and cash replenishment, not fully converted into spot buy orders.
The subscription strength of the stock issuance directly determines the thickness of spot buying; the fund diversion has slowed the one-way chasing of spot prices and maintained a liquidity buffer.
If U.S. equity funds continue to buy $MSTR at a premium, and spot Bitcoin breaks through the $80,000 resistance, the positive liquidity cycle will support larger-scale spot accumulation.
If the secondary market weakens in subscribing to the issued stocks and the premium narrows, the selling pressure from issuance and the slowdown in spot buy orders may trigger short-term two-way pressure.
When the proportion of preferred stock and cash diversion further rises and the pace of spot accumulation stalls again, the current logic of leveraging equity to drive Bitcoin liquidity will be disproved.
The most important variable to watch in the coming week is whether the ratio of ATM issuance scale to spot buy amount continues to decline.
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开【🔥How to view $ETH during the consolidation period】Whether 2400 holds is more important than "bull or not"
In August, ETH once touched above 2500, then retreated to a range of 2410–2450 due to the Fed's hawkish stance (Warsh at Jackson Hole emphasized no easing before inflation returns to 2%), geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran/Hormuz, and BTC dropping below 780,000 dragging it down. Technical media consensus: 2400–2420 short-term support, 2500–2550 resistance; further down, the 20-day EMA around 2225 and 200-day SMA around 2159 serve as mid-term support references.
Three operational boundaries, no direction given, only conditions:
1) Short-term: If 2400–2420 holds, view the 2386–2534 range; rebound to 2480–2500 to reduce positions and try shorting/do not chase longs; if 2400 breaks effectively with volume, do not catch the falling knife, wait for 2386, then look down to 2225–2250.
2) Swing: Continuous ETF inflows + staking lock-up form the base position logic, but do not fully load before macro eases; stand back above 2500 and close above 2550 for two consecutive days before discussing trend continuation.
3) Risk control: Although contract funding rates are positive, open interest is declining, leverage longs and shorts are easily shaken out; single coin positions should be a small proportion of total funds, set stop losses first, and reduce leverage before non-farm payrolls/interest rate meetings.
Conclusion: This is not a "bull market continuation with blind longs," nor a "breakdown turning bearish," but a high-level consolidation during a macro waiting period. ETF provides the base, macro pressure caps it; wait for employment data and the September interest rate meeting to choose the direction. $ETH I heard there's fighting again in the Middle East, $CORE had been doing well these past few days but got hit down because of it, yet it still hasn't broken the previous low. My target is to add more if it breaks below 0.02, since I already added once last night. Today I'll just observe for now, no rush to act.
Many people say core will be delisted by OKX, but if you check the delisting rules, you'll know that a price drop is not a reason for delisting. Exchanges delist coins either because the project team is unreachable, the project is no longer updated, or there are malicious behaviors like inflation or dumping. Core doesn't have any of these issues. The project's tokens are unlocked linearly as previously agreed, and the team is very active with regular updates. This does not meet the criteria for delisting. Many meme coins with market caps in the millions haven't been delisted, so core definitely won't be. Those saying it will be delisted are just worrying unnecessarily.
If it dares to keep dropping, I dare to keep adding. As long as I have the strength, I won't stop adding.AI earnings continue: Dell reports Sep 1, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on Sep 2. Hardware will test whether custom AI chips, networking and server orders sustain growth, profit and cash flow. Software will show whether cloud-data demand creates steadier subscription and usage revenue. Nvidia validated compute demand; focus now is whether AI spending spreads from chips into servers, networking and enterprise software, supporting broader tech valuations. Share your view under this topic.US military airstrikes Iran, BTC completely decouples from gold
In the early morning, the Strait of Hormuz was bombed again. The US military airstruck the rocket launch facilities on Iran's Larak Island, and Iran immediately retaliated with missiles. War has broken out, and risk-off sentiment should have exploded—but the script is disrupted.
$BTC fell below 77,000 yesterday, down 3.3% in 24 hours, with over $200 million long positions liquidated within an hour. Gold fared worse, with spot prices dropping below $4,400 intraday, and COMEX gold down 3.24%. Traditional safe-haven assets crashed even harder than BTC.
Brent crude surged over 2%, returning above $90. As oil prices rise, inflation expectations heat up, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has jumped from 35% to 56.9%. Hawkish aftershocks from the Fed and geopolitical conflicts create dual pressure resonance.
BTC has gained 23% this month, compared to gold's 9% and the Nasdaq's 4%. Bitcoin is shifting from a "risk asset" to a "geopolitical hedge"—but the shadow of rate hikes remains; if 77,000 does not hold, the next support is 75,000.
On another front, Nvidia's procurement commitments surged from $119 billion to $279 billion, with storage price increases exceeding expectations. Samsung secured the core supplier for NVHBM.
Macro pressures suppress valuations, geopolitics test resilience, and storage moves independently. Don't trade the new market with old scripts. #BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
$BTC's movement today is actually quite typical. It once surged to around $81,000, then pulled back, and is currently oscillating again around $78,000. Over the past month, BTC has risen nearly 24%, accumulating a lot of short-term profits, so continuing upward is obviously not as easy as before.
What’s more noteworthy is that BTC’s recent trend is increasingly similar to gold $XAU. In August, gold rose more than 10%, and BTC also rebounded from around $60,000 to above $80,000. The logic behind both partly points to concerns about the US dollar, US fiscal policy, and the global macro environment. Recent data shows that the correlation between BTC and gold has clearly increased.
But today’s linkage is not purely positive. Gold was also suppressed today by hawkish Fed expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike clearly rising. Gold weakened intraday, and BTC also failed to firmly reclaim $80,000. In other words, the market is really trading "liquidity" now, and gold and BTC are just both affected by macro expectations.
My view: Around $77,000 is a key short-term level. If it holds, BTC still has a chance to challenge $80,000 or even previous highs again; but if it repeatedly fails to break $80,000 and $77,000 is lost, then be cautious of concentrated profit-taking at high levels.
At this position, I actually don’t recommend FOMO. Above $80,000 requires new funds and macro catalysts to take over. Next, focus on US employment data and September expectations, which are more important than simply watching the candlesticks.BTC is becoming more and more like gold, but I actually think this is not a completely good news
A very obvious recent change is that the correlation between BTC and gold is getting stronger, with a 90-day correlation exceeding 50%, but BTC's volatility is still far greater than gold's.
What does this mean?
Previously, BTC was more like a highly elastic tech asset; when the US stock market rose, it followed, and when the US stock market fell, it also dropped. Now, capital is starting to compare it with gold, indicating that the "digital gold" logic is returning.
But the problem lies here.
If BTC really starts to follow gold's logic, then repeatedly failing to break through around 80,000 should not be understood simply as "too strong a resistance level."
It might also be waiting for a new macro catalyst.
So what I am most focused on now is not BTC's rise or fall today, but whether BTC can slowly break away from the 78,000 area while gold continues to strengthen.
If gold continues to be strong and BTC also starts moving back above 80,000, then this correlation might be turning into a new capital logic.
But if gold keeps rising and BTC can't even hold 77,000, then the "digital gold" story needs to be reconsidered.
Do you think BTC is now becoming digital gold, or is the market just temporarily putting them together? #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC $XAU BTC IS HOLDING. ALTS AREN’T.
$BTC around $78.7K while $ETH and $SOL weaken tells me where liquidity is hiding.
With oil risk, geopolitical tension and BTC gold correlation rising, this looks more like selective BTC strength than a broad risk-on move.
For now: BTC first. Alts later.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BroadcomDellAIResults #GoldVsBTCETFFlows 2026.8.31 Market Analysis
Compared to the US interest rate hikes, I am currently more concerned about Japan raising rates.
Once the yen exchange rate cannot be suppressed, Japan basically has two possible response options, and whichever path it takes could impact global stock markets.
The first is raising interest rates.
If the interest rate differential between Japan and the US narrows, the carry trade that relies on low-interest yen financing to reinvest in US dollar assets will be squeezed. If funds rush to close positions and deleverage, global risk assets could easily come under pressure.
The second is selling US Treasuries and buying back yen.
Japan holds a large amount of US Treasuries. When the yen depreciates too quickly, to stabilize the exchange rate, Japan could theoretically sell US Treasuries and buy yen. But this would also affect the US Treasury market and further disrupt global asset prices.
However, I judge that these two extreme actions are unlikely to actually materialize in the short term.
On August 5, 2024, Japan’s rate hike triggered a rapid unwinding of carry trades, causing a sharp drop in global stock markets, after which Japan quickly signaled market stabilization. This process has already shown that Japan’s monetary policy not only affects itself but also influences global markets.
This time, the US and Japan chose to jointly intervene in the yen exchange rate, and the coordination behind it is very likely still led by the US. With the US midterm elections approaching, the economy cannot easily fall into recession, and the stock market needs to remain as stable as possible. Facing the continuously depreciating yen, Japan’s room for independent action is actually quite limited.
【What really needs attention next is the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in mid-September.】From the statements then, the market should see a clearer policy direction.
The above content is only a personal market analysis and trading idea record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation. #财报观察员：Broadcom and Dell take the baton, AI returns are tested again
The leader has something to say
NVIDIA broke through the hardware ceiling last week, and this week it's Dell and Broadcom's turn to deliver.
Dell is looking at server orders. AI server gross margins are lower than traditional servers; the market wants to see if volume can make up for the profit gap. Cloud providers' capital expenditures are still expanding, so orders should be decent, but profit conversion is key.
Broadcom is focused on custom chips. Google TPU orders face competition from Marvell, putting pressure on gross margins. The market will watch management's guidance on customer concentration and pricing power.
Snowflake is watching cloud data demand. Whether the software side can convert AI investments into stable subscription revenue is still in the early validation stage.
These three companies represent different positions in the AI industry chain. After NVIDIA validates the chip side, capital is spreading to servers, networking, and software. Who can capture this wave of premium depends on orders and profit conversion, not concepts. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market front, Bitcoin is near 77,000, continuing to hold ZEC short positions with floating profits of over 90 points. All Bitcoin long positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback; no heavy positions will be taken until the direction is clear.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on trades. Good luck.$BTC Key Levels and On-Chain Data: The Real Cost for Investors Right Now
In the short term, keep a close eye on the $80,000 mark. Based on the on-chain chip distribution (URPD) model, this is not only a psychological threshold but also the market's average cost line.
· Above $80,000: Only if the daily and weekly closing prices both hold above this level does it mean that most chips are in profit, thereby supporting further price increases.
· $83,000-$84,500 range: This is the early May high and a dense trading zone for nearly 975,000 bitcoins, forming a strong resistance.
Looking Ahead: Three Signals to Confirm
One core driver of this rebound is the massive net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs (about $2.7-3 billion net inflow in August). Going forward, pay attention to:
1. The sustainability of ETF fund inflows: The continuation of buying on dips in the short term will determine the quality of this rally.
2. Macro data: Especially the U.S. non-farm payroll data released later this week, which will impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
3. Key level battles: If the price falls below the short-term support of $78,800-$79,000, it may further retest the $75,000-$74,000 range; conversely, if it breaks above $81,200 with volume, it could challenge the $83,000-$84,000 range again. $ETH had a flash crash today. There was news in the morning that affected the market — the US and Iran are at war again, causing a rapid drop.
But I think it's more because the market itself is in a sensitive state. At this position, it's clear that the bulls are losing strength and can't break through. Unless there is more positive news to trigger another rally, a pullback is inevitable.
In the short term, I still expect a pullback. A flash crash starting with 23 can't really be considered a pullback. Only if the daily chart holds at 2100 can it be confirmed as a pullback. Then it depends on whether the bulls can hold support; if not, the decline will continue. #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 交易被挖出的时间是2026年8月26日。新闻被广泛传播的时间是8月31日。中间隔了五天。 为什么是五天，不是当天？ 如果这是一项真正紧急的技术突破，如果比特币真的面临量子威胁的“倒计时”，那么一笔抗量子交易成功上主网的消息，应该在第一时间被推送到所有加密媒体的头条。但事实是：它安静地躺在区块964,199里待了将近一周，直到劳动节前的周日才被集中释放。 这个时间差，比交易本身更值得追问。 先把“救生艇”这个词拆开 原文反复使用StarkWare CEO Ben-Sasson的比喻：QSB是比特币的“救生艇”。这个比喻很精巧，但它掩盖了一个关键问题：救生艇的价值，只有在船真的要沉的时候才能被验证。 而比特币现在没有沉，量子计算机现在没有来，ECDSA现在没有破。 那么，一条“救生艇”在风平浪静的时候被展示出来，它的真正功能是什么？ 换一个主语来看：不是“比特币获得了一条救生艇”，而是“StarkWare在比特币的主网上完成了一次不需要被使用的表演。” 这笔交易的成本是150到200美元，需要几小时GPU计算，不能走公共mempool，只能通过MARA的私有通道提交。它不可复制、不可规模化“$ETF fund inflows end after 9 consecutive days of growth”
On that day, Bitcoin spot $ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $201.9 million, ending nine consecutive days of net inflows.
However, this is not an institutional retreat but more like a short-term adjustment with a macro background:
· Data details: mild and structural: This roughly $200 million outflow is very small compared to the cumulative $55.1 billion net inflow of $ETF, more like a healthy profit-taking. Interestingly, on the same day, Ethereum ETFs actually had a net inflow of $102.1 million, indicating that funds might be rebalancing between sectors rather than fully exiting the crypto market.
· Macro trigger: hawkish remarks: The most direct reason was the hawkish speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole conference, which immediately tightened market expectations for a September rate hike, directly suppressing sentiment for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Therefore, last week's overall data still looked very strong—Bitcoin $ETF net inflows for the entire week still reached $924.5 million, with a cumulative inflow of $2.8 billion over the past two weeks. This does not change the big trend of fund inflows.
So, this is more like a short-term pause button under macro headwinds. A single day’s fund rotation combined with macro pressure is enough to cause the kind of “volatile pullback” and “fund clustering” you have experienced in the market.Layer Two: The Three Knives Behind the Glamour
Knife One: This wave is an "uncheered" rally
From 509 to 733, social media mentions plummeted from 1,116 to 138, a drop of 88%. The price is soaring, but no one is discussing it—this indicates it’s not retail FOMO driving it up, but smart money quietly positioning. This is both good and bad—the good is the structure is clean; the bad is once they start selling, who will be the buyers?
Knife Two: Prosperity built on leverage
Futures trading volume surged to $5.77 billion, open interest around $1.8 billion, with leverage at 13% of market cap. Speculative positions are the main driver, and exchange net flows point to rapid two-way trading with no signs of sustained accumulation.
Knife Three: 66% are betting against you
66% of accounts are short. Short squeezes fueled this rally—once the fuel runs out, new buyers are needed to take over. The baton is passed to ETFs, but they’ve only been listed for five days with a size of $310 million. Will institutions buy in? There’s no data yet. $ETH $BTC $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Warning! Starship test flight delayed + abandoning booster recovery, Nasdaq says expectations are ahead of reality!
Don't be fooled just because the unlock didn't crash the market. Look at the latest reality: Starship's 14th test flight postponed from the end of August to early September, and booster recovery abandoned in favor of a sea splashdown.
What does this mean? It means the technical difficulty is greater than expected. SpaceX itself isn't confident in completing booster recovery, so they lowered the difficulty to secure orbit first. The previously anticipated "historic breakthrough in booster recovery" is gone, and this expectation gap needs to be digested.
On August 30, Nasdaq directly pointed out three main reasons for $SPCX volatility — expectations ahead of reality, huge expenditures causing new problems, and investors increasingly focusing on Starship. Q2 revenue of 7.8 billion looks good, but high capital expenditures on AI and Starship are consuming a lot of cash flow; the more they earn, the more they spend.
In terms of price movement, it fell from 149 to 130, rebounded to 140 but then stagnated, with shrinking volume. 143-145 is a resistance zone; if it can't break through, it will continue to pull back.
Strategy: Short when it rebounds to 142-143 and stagnates, stop loss at 145, target 136-134. Expectation overreach + technical difficulty reduction, don't chase highs.
The above is personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Tim Cook officially handed over the baton today: After 15 years of turning Apple into a super cash machine, did he really miss out on AI? Today is Tim Cook's last day as Apple's CEO. Starting September 1, hardware head John Ternus will officially take over as CEO, while Cook will become Executive Chairman. Apple announced this succession plan as early as April. 1. Cook's greatest achievement is not just making Apple bigger, but maximizing its profitability Tim Cook has been CEO since 2011 and has been doing so for 15 full years. During this period, Apple's market value grew from about $350 billion to about $4 trillion, an increase of over 1000%; revenue also grew from $108 billion in fiscal year 2011 to over $416 billion in fiscal year 2025. Apple Watch, AirPods, services, and self-developed chips all grew during his tenure. So if you only look at business results, it's hard to say Cook is just "just sticking to the old ways." 2. The controversy is obvious: Apple's most important product is still the iPhone left over from the Jobs era This is why opinions about Cook have always been divided. Supporters of him would say that without Cook, Apple might not have reached the scale it has today, including supply chain, profit margins, service businesses, and self-developed chips. Skeptics argue that Apple's most important revenue pillar over the past 15 years has still been the iPhone, while$NVDA's latest quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%; data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. The company’s guidance for next quarter revenue is $108 billion.
After the earnings report was released, Nvidia rose 8.7% on Thursday but then fell 4.6% on Friday, closing at $217.55.
The fundamentals did not suddenly change in one day; what changed was the discount rate used by the market.
When the market raises interest rate expectations again, even companies with rapid profit growth may see high-valuation assets come under pressure. This is also what is worth watching when the U.S. stock market opens tomorrow: will strong earnings dominate pricing again, or will interest rates continue to suppress risk assets?
I will be watching two price groups simultaneously:
Whether NVDA can return to the post-earnings rally zone
Whether BTC can hold $77,000–$78,000 after the U.S. stock market opens
If NVDA rebounds and BTC remains stable simultaneously, it indicates that risk appetite still has resilience; if NVDA breaks below Friday’s low of $216.81 and BTC falls below $77,000, it means macro pressure is still dominating capital choices.
BTC and Nvidia are not permanently correlated in the long term, but when the market reassesses risk appetite, they can serve as two mirrors reflecting capital sentiment.
Tomorrow the market will choose whether to believe in earnings or continue trading interest rates?Back in mid-June, I called out AAVE and UNI. These two coins are the infrastructure in the blockchain DeFi sector, and the investment logic is actually very simple.
If you don't want to bet on MEME on Robinhood, just take UNI.
Referencing the last bull market where MEME tokens on the SOL chain exploded, both the SOL mainnet and liquidity provider RAY saw returns of dozens of times. If the Robinhood ecosystem takes off, UNI as the underlying DEX will also benefit from this wave of dividends.
If you don't want to hold ETH to directly hedge BTC exchange rates, just take AAVE.
AAVE is the leading DeFi lending platform in the Ethereum ecosystem and can be understood as a 3x leverage on ETH. When ETH rises, AAVE has greater elasticity; when ETH is sideways, AAVE still earns income through lending fees.
Standard Chartered's latest report also sets a target, projecting AAVE to increase 50 times to $3500 by 2030. The core logic is a 37-fold growth in DeFi assets and tokenized finance going on-chain, with a significant increase in Aave's withdrawal scale, thereby boosting the total trading volume and fee income of protocols like Uniswap.
Standard Chartered also predicts that the scale of on-chain collateral assets will grow from the current $34 billion to $4 trillion by 2028, with DeFi's share rising from about 55% currently to 80% by 2030 Revolut has started promoting EURR in Denmark, Poland, and Portugal; meanwhile, the European Central Bank continues to discuss privacy protection designs for the digital euro. It seems that local European digital currencies are beginning to show layered competition: the digital euro from the banking system, euro stablecoins from financial platforms, and US dollar stablecoins on primary public blockchains.
Ajian has always believed that the globalization of stablecoins does not necessarily mean absolute dominance by the US dollar. Once truly integrated into local payments, local currencies can also enter the blockchain through compliant issuers.
Therefore, if EURR wants to succeed, it does not need to defeat USDT; it only needs to address euro collection, euro settlement, cross-border e-commerce, digital asset trading, and compliant fund inflows and outflows locally in Europe. These scenarios are sufficient to support an ecosystem.Today's market experienced severe fluctuations and pullbacks!! Bitcoin $BTC oscillated between $77,000 and $78,000, with most altcoins performing weaker. Capital is consolidating and risk aversion sentiment is evident.
· Market pullback with intense volatility: Bitcoin $BTC fell below $78,000, hitting a low of $76,947. In the past 24 hours, about $346 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for $248 million.
· Dual pressure from macro and capital flows: Hawkish Fed remarks raised the September rate hike expectations to 60%, and a strong dollar weighed on risk assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot $ETF ended a 9-day net inflow streak, turning to about $200 million net outflow last Friday.
· Divergence between mainstream and altcoins: $ETH performed weaker (around $2,440), with Solana and DOGE leading declines of about 2%. Although crypto funds saw a record $3.2 billion inflow last week, the majority went to a few mainstream coins, failing to benefit most tokens, resulting in a "weak coin" scenario.
· Short-term outlook: The market is awaiting directional choice. Key support is at $77,000 (breach may test $75,000), with resistance near $80,000.
The current weakness is mainly due to combined macro concerns (rate hikes, geopolitical issues) and short-term capital flow changes (pause in $ETF inflows). Going forward, focus can be placed on capital movements after $ETF trading resumes this week.On August 31, XAUUSDT was quoted at $4,462 per ounce, down about 5% from the August 25 high, with an intraday range of $4,405–$4,493. The sharp drop was mainly due to Federal Reserve Chair Wash's hawkish signal at his Jackson Hole annual meeting debut, stating that inflation is "still too high" and that rate hike options remain on the table. The market raised the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to 57.5%, the two-year US Treasury yield jumped nearly 12 basis points, the dollar strengthened, and gold prices plunged more than $147 in a single day. Notably, the traditional negative correlation between gold and real interest rates temporarily decoupled, with the market pricing more in US fiscal credit risk and central bank gold purchasing logic. However, Wash's remarks temporarily reversed this narrative, putting precious metals under valuation adjustment pressure. In the short term, focus is on September's nonfarm payroll and CPI data; if the data confirm economic resilience and inflation stickiness, rate hike expectations may further suppress gold prices; otherwise, there is room for recovery. Technically, gold prices have fallen below the 200-day moving average (around $4,526), with short-term attention on the $4,458 level; a break below this points to $4,320. In the medium to long term, the ongoing global central bank gold buying wave, US Treasury supply-demand issues, and potential decline in real interest rates still provide bottom support.
$XAUT $BTC $ETH #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 $BTC has had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, but this momentum was interrupted on August 28.
On that day, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $201.9 million, with BlackRock, ARK, and Bitwise all reducing their holdings to varying degrees, ending the previous cumulative buying streak of over $3 billion. This pause triggered market concerns.
However, funds did not truly exit the crypto market. On the same day, $ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of $102.1 million, maintaining positive inflows for the 10th consecutive day. Solana spot ETFs also continued their strong performance, with a weekly net inflow of $153.87 million and net inflows recorded for 9 consecutive days, including a single-day inflow of $60.91 million on August 27, marking the best record of the year.
While BTC is seeing outflows, ETH and SOL are experiencing inflows, which looks more like a position rotation rather than an exit. The key is whether BTC can hold above $77,000; if it can, this adjustment may only be temporary.Nonfarm payroll week is here! Whether there will be a rate hike in September depends on this tremor
After Warsh's speech, the probability of a September rate hike surged to 57%, gold plummeted, and BTC briefly fell below 77000. This week's employment data will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September.
The market expects nonfarm payrolls to be between 55,000 and 80,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. July's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months were revised down by a total of 103,000, showing a clear cooling trend in employment.
If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike will rise again, and BTC will test 76000 again; if it falls short of expectations, the negative factors will be exhausted, and BTC will rebound to 78000-79000.
My judgment: the data is very likely not to look good. If nonfarm payrolls weaken again, rate hike expectations will fall, and BTC will instead see a rebound.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 DefiLlama data shows that Binance had a net inflow of $15.6 billion in the past month.
What does this mean? Bybit's total assets are only $16 billion, and Robinhood's are about $14.3 billion. In other words, Binance's monthly capital increase is already close to Bybit's entire holdings and even exceeds Robinhood's total assets.
During the same period, OKX had a monthly inflow of about $1.7 billion, Bybit about $1.9 billion, and Binance's inflow is basically 8 to 9 times theirs.
Besides market conditions and the leading effect, I think there is another very important change: Binance is vigorously expanding into TradFi. From gold and silver to popular U.S. stocks, ETFs, tokenized stocks, and Pre-IPO targets, more and more traditional assets are being brought into Binance.
Previously, after making money in crypto, funds had to be transferred to brokers to buy stocks; now crypto, gold, U.S. stocks, and ETFs can all be managed within a single account. $BTC is now facing a very real wall: above $80,000, selling pressure is clearly increasing; meanwhile, the macro environment is not as favorable as it was recently.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's recent hawkish remarks have significantly heated up market bets on a rate hike in September, currently around 60%. At the same time, the latest U.S. employment data is about to be released, and how inflation and employment data move next will directly affect expectations for the Fed's policy in September.
This also explains why the recent movements of BTC and gold have become increasingly interesting.
Both are being used by funds as hedges against currency, inflation, and macro risks, but BTC's volatility is clearly much greater. Gold still rose over 10% in August, while BTC quickly entered a consolidation phase after testing $80,000.
My view is that the worst thing now is to get excited and chase after a break above $80,000, then immediately turn bearish when it falls back to $78,000.
$80,000 has become a very critical short-term level.
If it can hold and continue to see volume growth, it indicates that this breakout has fund support; if it cannot hold and even falls below around $77,000, then this rally may risk turning into a deeper correction.
Especially keep an eye on ETF funds.
Because the previous rally was not driven solely by retail sentiment; institutional funds did participate. But now the continuous inflows have been interrupted, indicating a divergence in funds.
So I am now more inclined to define BTC as "high-level consolidation within an uptrend" rather than directly judging the bull market to be over.
What really matters next is not whether BTC rises 500 or falls 1000 today, but whether $80,000 can truly turn from a resistance level into a support level.
If it holds, there is still room to move higher; if it doesn't, then don't rush to prove you were right—wait for the price to show the direction first.
Having been involved with BTC for many years, I increasingly feel that the biggest test at high levels is not judgment ability, but patience.
$ETH $SOL
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Fundamental analysis of $0G and whether it has the suspicion and capability of high-level manipulation like $LAB and $BEAT? What is its current liquidity?
From a fundamental perspective, 0G belongs to the AI sector with high heat, has an actual mainnet and ecosystem development, is not a pure Meme coin, and is a high-valuation AI infrastructure project. Its previous historical high was $7.31, currently around $0.2, having dropped more than 97%, which also indicates that large capital whales have already massively withdrawn! The current token distribution is 22% team, 22% institutional investors, 28% ecosystem, 15% node rewards, and 13% community. This indicates that its manipulation level is not particularly severe! However, more than 67% of tokens are still locked, with unlocking continuing until 2029 and monthly unlocking plans. So, one needs to be cautious when trading. The recent rise is due to large capital inflows. Don't be greedy for small profits and end up as a bag holder.
Final OG summary: There is a real project, institutional chips, and long-term unlocking pressure. It is also a project seriously trapped in the AI sector rather than a pure pump-and-dump scheme. $BTC fell below 78,000, $ETH lost 2,500, and $SOL also dropped over 3%—the market is panicking again.
It just bounced back to 79,000 for less than two days before all gains were wiped out by negative news. After Wash turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped directly from 35% to 57%-60%. PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2% target for 65 consecutive months—Wash said inflation isn't coming down, so the job isn't done yet. #EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Wash's policy stance is being tested
And it's not over yet: Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index, Thursday's ISM Services Prices Paid Index, and Friday's August Nonfarm Payrolls—if any come out high, rate hike expectations will surge again. Wash has redefined the rules: in the past, weak employment meant lower rate hike expectations; now inflation is the core variable, and as long as employment doesn't deteriorate significantly, rate hikes are unstoppable.
On top of that, the US-Iran military conflict has escalated, oil prices have risen, and risk assets are being crushed. #USIranMilitaryConfrontationEscalates, Oil Supply Risk Heats Up
$BTC is hovering between 77,000-78,000, $ETH is stuck at 2,430, and $SOL is falling the hardest. All three are under pressure. If $BTC can't hold the 76,000-77,000 support zone, it may look for a bottom at 73,000-75,000. $ETH is weaker, with 2,400 as the critical point.
People call it a bull market when it rebounds and a bear market when it falls—can you have some independent judgment? #TradingVoice: Your Experience Deserves to Be Heard