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$SOL is entering a different phase, and I don’t think the biggest story is the recent price move.
The important part is what just changed underneath the tokenomics. Solana’s Double Disinflation proposal passed, increasing the annual disinflation rate from 15% to 30%, meaning the network will reach its long term 1.5% issuance floor much faster than originally planned. That does not automatically mean SOL must pump, but it changes the supply equation over time.August's A-share market bottoming is frustrating; the Shanghai Composite has been hovering around 2850 points for almost three weeks.
Trading volume has shrunk even worse than last year, and sector rotation is as fast as a fan.
At this time, looking at neighboring $BTC, it has climbed steadily from 58,000 to 72,000 without looking back.
The old bad habit of stock trading strikes again—I always want to wait for a pullback before getting in, but the price just keeps rising the longer I wait.
That pulse in brokerage stocks at the end of July—I chased in and got stuck; after cutting losses, it rallied again.
The virtual currency trend is very much like the new energy vehicles in 2020, with no comfortable entry points during the main uptrend.
But stock market experience tells me that all sharp rises eventually have to pay the price.
$ETH moves in tandem with $BTC, but once Bitcoin stagnates, small coins fall so hard even their own mothers wouldn’t recognize them.
In the past month, US tech stocks have been stable, but crypto volatility is three times that of the Nasdaq.
I set a rule for myself: use 20% of my total position to play, and set stop-loss lines.
Better to miss out than to make a mistake. During that fake breakout in mid-August, many were liquidated at 73,000.
Still the same saying: what the stock market has taught me is not how to make money, but how to survive.
At this point, either wait for a pullback to 68,000 or wait for a volume breakout before following.
No rush; money in hand means opportunities are always there. Among the addresses with the most prominent large-scale portfolio adjustments, the four key addresses 0x84ab, 0x269e, 0x2f9b, and 0x4c78 previously held a combined long position worth approximately $4.215 million and a short position worth $3.169 million, with a net long position of about $1.046 million. After one weekend, all four addresses have switched entirely to short positions, currently shorting a total of 12,164.76 SKHX contracts, with a position value of approximately $14.775 million. During this period, the combined positions of the four moved 13,035.52 contracts toward the short side, valued at about $15.833 million at current prices:
- 0x84ab was nearly flat on Friday and began establishing short positions on Saturday, currently short about $4.615 million;
- 0x269e still held 2,309.47 long contracts on Friday, closed longs early this morning and reversed to short, currently short about $1.393 million, realizing a loss of about $116,000 during the position flip;
- 0x2f9b flipped directly from 1,200 long contracts to 1,800 short contracts, with the current short position valued at about $2.186 million;
- 0x4c78 was already short on Friday and continued to increase the position, currently expanding the short position to about $6.581 million.
This concentrated flip to short positions occurred against the backdrop of a slight weekend rise in SKHX. SKHX closed at $1,200.9 on Friday and is currently at $1,214.6, up about 1.1% since the weekend. The weighted cost of the current short positions across the four addresses is about $1,174.54, with a combined unrealized loss of approximately $487,000. $SKHY #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ZORA is a speculative coin, where can it run~~ Watch how I take it down, haha brothers, this trade just opened a few minutes ago and I already profited. Let me explain why I shorted it.
First, look at the order book structure: the total network open interest is about 40 million USD, but the long-short ratio is squeezed to 6:4, meaning six out of ten people are long. Retail traders are too consistent, all chips are crowded on the long side. To push it up requires more real money; the market makers have no incentive to act like the liberating army. Then look at the funding rate: it turned negative after only a few points of rise, indicating spot market support but the futures side is using the pump to close longs at high levels or lure shorts, a typical market control and leverage washout tactic. Negative funding is just a facade; essentially, longs are paying rent to shorts.
This kind of small-cap coin lacks depth and moat, the narrative is hot but real demand is thin. Once the overall market sentiment weakens or spot selling pressure emerges, futures longs will end up stepping on themselves. I opened a 10x short betting on a crowded trade reversal, floating profit is over 40 points but I’m not getting cocky. Stop loss follows profit; don’t treat speculative coins as trend coins and fight to the end. Good luck to those in the same boat, and don’t chase if you’re not on board. This kind of volatility kills greed and panic. Not investment advice. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Benchmark has initiated coverage on SpaceX with a "Buy" rating, but the $183 price target has sent ripples through Wall Street.
Compared to FactSet's latest analyst consensus—an average rating of "Overweight" and a target price of $226.26—Benchmark's $183 target is nearly 20% below Wall Street's average expectation. This is not bearish but a very shrewd "discounted bullish" stance. Locking in certainty and removing bubbles: based on SPCX's current market price of about $141, $183 corresponds to roughly 30% upside. This valuation both affirms the fundamentals of Starlink and the launch business and proactively excludes some long-term overvaluation premiums. From Goldman Sachs's $205, the consensus average of $226.26, to Benchmark's $183, it indicates that Wall Street capital is transitioning from the "sentiment premium" at IPO to "discounted cash flow."
The $183 target price is more like an "institutional cautious entry line." When the market consensus average pushes above $226, the risk of chasing higher is obvious; meanwhile, $183 sends a clear signal: even under a relatively tight financial model, SPCX's buy point support near $140 remains solid. $UNI $OKB $BTC #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $APT
Future Development Prospects of Aptos (APT)
Aptos is a Move language public chain, originating from the original Meta Diem team, with strong technical foundations. However, ecosystem implementation and market competition are the biggest bottlenecks. Its future trajectory can be divided into three scenarios: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic.
✅ Core Advantages (Potential Growth Points in the Future)
1. Technology and Security Advantages
The Move language natively prevents reentrancy and asset duplication vulnerabilities, making contract security superior to Solidity; it supports parallel execution, second-level finality, modular upgrades, and is suitable for institutional-grade financial applications and RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization.
2. Major Tokenomics Reform (Mainnet upgrade scheduled for August 2026)
- Total supply capped at 2.1 billion APT;
- All gas fees will be burned, moving towards a deflationary model;
- Staking yield will be reduced to decrease passive locking and encourage funds to enter DeFi;
- The foundation will permanently lock 210 million APT, and future ecosystem subsidies will be distributed based on actual project performance instead of indiscriminate airdrops.
Key point: Deflation only takes effect if on-chain transaction volume is high; if usage is low, the burn effect will be weak.
3. Institutional and RWA Sector Positioning
Aptos focuses on institutional finance, RWA tokenization, and institutional-grade DEXs, integrating with traditional financial FIX protocols. In some overseas regions, APT is classified as a digital commodity, attracting traditional asset management institutions to deploy on-chain assets, with stablecoin scale continuously growing.
The foundation has invested $50 million to support AI+DeFi infrastructure, aiming to build a high-performance trading public chain for institutions.
4. Team and Capital Background
The founding team comes from Diem, with strong financing background. The foundation continuously allocates funds to support developers; the public chain infrastructure and SDK tools are well-developed, with a solid developer base.
⚠️ Major Realistic Risks (Limitations Determining the Ceiling)
1. Intense Competition in the Sector (The Core Issue)
Competitor Sui, also in the Move language sector, leads Aptos in DeFi TVL, liquidity, and developer enthusiasm; meanwhile, it faces pressure from Solana and Ethereum L2.
Aptos is positioned towards institutional finance, but its retail, GameFi, and Meme ecosystems are weak, lacking blockbuster applications to drive user scale. Its real on-chain activity is consistently lower than top public chains.
2. Continuous Token Unlocking and Selling Pressure
Currently, only about 40% of tokens are in circulation, with over 60% still to be unlocked. Investors, team members, and the foundation release tokens monthly.
Although the unlocking ratio decreases yearly, during weak market conditions, it continues to exert selling pressure, suppressing the token price.
3. The Old Problem of "Strong Technology, Weak Applications"
Aptos has a theoretically high TPS, but actual on-chain transactions, TVL, and user scale do not match its technical performance.
Token burning and deflation are "results," not causes: only with a large number of real users and DApp explosions will burning drive token value; without applications, the deflation mechanism is essentially ineffective.
4. Macro and Regulatory Uncertainty
Overseas regulatory benefits are limited; the global crypto market is heavily influenced by Federal Reserve liquidity and Bitcoin's overall market. If crypto enters a bear market, mid-to-small public chains will fall much more than BTC/ETH.
📈 Three Future Scenario Projections
Scenario 1: Optimistic (Low Probability)
- Conditions: Arrival of a major crypto bull market; large-scale implementation of RWA/institutional DeFi; emergence of blockbuster applications; significant increase in on-chain transaction volume and fees; burning mechanism effectively drives deflation.
- Outcome: Aptos becomes a leading public chain in institutional finance, with significant token valuation recovery.
Scenario 2: Neutral (Most Likely)
- Conditions: Slow ecosystem iteration, maintaining some institutional RWA business but no blockbuster; market fluctuates with Bitcoin; token unlocking continues.
- Outcome: The public chain survives but struggles to enter the top-tier public chain ranks; token price follows crypto market trends and is unlikely to replicate early historical highs.
Scenario 3: Pessimistic (Cannot Be Ruled Out)
- Conditions: Ecosystem remains weak, funds continue flowing to Sui, Solana, Ethereum L2; low on-chain fees and weak burn effect; institutional cooperation falls short of expectations.
- Outcome: Becomes a niche institutional experimental public chain, with continuously shrinking market cap and long-term stagnation.
Summary
Aptos is not an "air project"; its technology, team, and token reforms are noteworthy. However, its biggest problem is: excellent technology but lacking users and killer applications.
Its future height depends not on technology itself but on two things:
1. Whether it can truly implement RWA and institutional DeFi to bring real on-chain traffic;
2. Whether it can attract enough developers and users amid fierce public chain competition, rather than remaining at the experimental stage.
Still bullish on $APT TON’s Biggest Advantage Is Distribution One of the most interesting things about TON is that it doesn’t have to start from zero. Telegram already gives TON something most blockchain ecosystems spend years trying to build: access to a massive global audience. But having millions of potential users is only the beginning. The real challenge is turning that attention into meaningful on-chain activity. People won’t necessarily become active Web3 users simply because blockchain features are placed in ETH at $2445, are you going to chase it? First, look at the surface: a 30% rebound, high-level oscillation, a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. In mid-August, ETH violently rebounded from 1900, reaching a high of 2565, then recently fell back to oscillate between 2400-2500. The 24-hour fluctuation is less than $100. The 2400 level has been defended multiple times, while above 2500 it has repeatedly been smashed; the direction must be chosen, don’t get caught in the middle. The first thing: ETFs have continuously bought $1.4 billion, but the price hasn’t risen—you’ve been fooled by "stagnant growth." The US spot ETH ETFs have had net inflows for multiple days, totaling about $1.4 billion over 9 days, with BlackRock holding a very high proportion, once nearly $200 million in a single day. This rebound is not driven by retail sentiment; it’s continuous passive buying. Sounds all positive? But the price fell from 2565 to 2445 because retail investors are watching the candlesticks, while institutions are accumulating chips. The second thing: ETH’s fundamentals have two "invisible positives" you didn’t understand. The first: the staking rate has soared to 34%, with the exit queue nearly zero. More than one-third of ETH is locked in staking contracts, and no one wants to sell. Exchange liquid inventories are low, and floating supply is decreasing. The second: BlackRock launched an ETF product with staking (ETHB). The logic for institutions allocating ETH has changed—from "pure price speculation" to "digital assets with yield." A 3% staking yield plus price appreciation expectations is a dimensionality reduction strike for pensions and family offices. The third thing: macro has played a "wild card".# Wash's residual influence combined with geopolitical risks leads the market to reprice liquidity expectations
$SOL Wash's remarks are not a one-time shock but a revision of expectations. The market had been overly optimistic about the Fed's pivot; Wash clearly prioritizes inflation over employment, effectively overturning the short-term narrative of "recession forcing rate cuts." The two-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.35% already indicates the issue—short-term rates are reanchoring, while long-term rates fluctuate less, and the yield curve steepens. This is not recession pricing but a return to "longer and higher."
$ETH The military action in the early hours at the Strait of Hormuz is another variable. The US military airstrike on rocket launchers appears limited on the surface, but the location is extremely sensitive—about 30% of global seaborne oil passes through this strait. Geopolitical premiums are returning; Brent crude is already reacting, but the market has not fully priced in the tail risk of supply chain disruptions. Gold has fallen instead of rising as a safe haven, indicating that liquidity squeeze logic dominates. Funds are avoiding risky assets while also shunning some safe-haven assets, a typical feature of tightening US dollar liquidity.
$BTC BTC broke below 77,000 with accelerated downside testing, making 76,000 the new battleground. The 76,000-77,000 range is a chip-dense zone tested multiple times over the past month. Once effectively broken, the short-term bullish structure will be destroyed. However, it is important to note that the volume in this decline has not significantly increased, indicating that selling mainly comes from long stop-losses rather than new short positions, leaving room for subsequent stabilization possible $BTC | THE SUPPLY-SIDE BATTLE
Bitcoin gained roughly 24% in August, its strongest August since 2017, while spot ETFs attracted about $1.92B in one week.
The deeper thesis:$BTC
BTC is entering a market where demand is becoming more structural — but the real question is how much supply long-term holders are willing to release.
That’s where the next repricing gets decided. 🔥$BTC
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #Daily$BTC, $ETH, and $OKB all fell today, mainly due to a normal correction caused by the combined effect of a hawkish macro environment and a funding cutoff. From the market perspective, it is a combined force of multiple negative factors being released simultaneously.
📉 Core logic behind the decline
· Macro negative pressure: Federal Reserve Chair Wash delivered hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, raising market expectations for a September rate hike from about 35% to over 60%. This directly drained liquidity from risk assets, causing Bitcoin to fall below $77,000.
· Geopolitical and liquidation resonance: Renewed US-Iran conflict risks increased uncertainty. Long leverage was heavily liquidated, with about $200 million liquidated across the network in the past hour, over 70% of which were long positions, creating strong selling pressure.
· Funding "cutoff": Although spot ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive days, subscription was suspended over the weekend, interrupting the demand channel supporting recent gains. Meanwhile, large whales on the exchange accelerated depositing ETH for concentrated selling, causing ETH's decline to exceed that of BTC.
· OKB linkage effect: As a platform token, OKB has recently been mainly driven by market sentiment, but due to relatively thin liquidity, it experiences greater volatility when dragged down by BTC's decline. Coupled with recent geopolitical and overall market risks, sentiment is easily amplified, ultimately closing down 2.52%. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Broadcom and Dell are two earnings reports I’m paying close attention to this week, but for different reasons.
Broadcom gives us a good look at demand for custom AI chips and networking, while Dell tells us more about what’s happening further down the chain with AI servers, storage and data-center infrastructure.
Personally, I think looking at both together gives a better picture of the AI spending cycle than watching one company alone.
The big question for me isn’t whether AI demand is still strong we already know companies are spending aggressively. I want to see whether that demand is translating into healthy margins, growing orders and sustainable profits.
Dell already has a huge AI server backlog, while Broadcom has been guiding for major growth in AI semiconductor revenue. Expectations are high, and that’s exactly what makes these results interesting.
If both companies show another strong quarter, I’d take that as further evidence that the AI infrastructure buildout still has momentum. But if orders remain strong while margins start getting squeezed, that could become the next part of the AI story investors need to watch.
#BroadcomDellAIResults $BTC Gold breaks below 4400, crude oil surges to 86, the market is experiencing a tale of two extremes
Gold breaks below 4400, crude oil violently rallies over 4%. The same batch of geopolitical events, two markets have played out opposite scripts.
Gold falls because after Wash's hawkish speech, the probability of a September rate hike soared from 35% to 60%. Rising rate hike expectations → stronger dollar → gold under pressure, the 4400 level was directly broken.
Crude oil rises because Iran fired missiles at US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing geopolitical risk premiums to the max. WTI rose 4% to 86.7, Brent rose 3.8% to 91.5.
The strange part: Normally, with Middle East conflict escalation, gold should rise along with crude oil. But this time gold plunged because the market is more worried that war-driven oil price hikes will make inflation more stubborn, forcing the Fed to hike rates more aggressively.
Bull and bear logic are clashing: Bulls see Korean retail investors aggressively buying gold ETFs and a medium-to-long-term narrative of “dollar credit devaluation”; bears see rising rate hike expectations and higher US Treasury yields.
My judgment: The medium-term logic for gold is intact, but don’t rush to catch the falling knife in the short term. The geopolitical premium in crude oil is not yet fully priced in, chasing highs carries significant risk.
$XAU $CL $BTC
Brothers, do you dare to bottom-fish gold at 4400?👇
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Recently, some Alpha opportunities have appeared on the Robinhood chain. Based on the current buzz, it is very likely to be the emergence point of the first wave of the crypto bull market.
Based on different risk preferences, I personally think there are several ways to participate:
1. Robinhood's chain is an ETH L2 chain. Going long on ETH can benefit from the spillover effect of Hood L2. It is foreseeable that other L2s will soon join the fray, and if the momentum succeeds, it will lead to overall prosperity in the ETH ecosystem.
2. Going long on $HOOD stock. The current technical pattern has entered a consolidation phase, and if Hood L2 succeeds, it will drive the stock price to break upwards.
3. Going long on the launchpad tokens of Hood L2. The chain is flourishing with frequent MEME releases. If you are not good at "single betting" on a particular meme coin, then betting on the token launchpad has a higher success rate.
4. Selecting MEMEs on Hood L2 that look promising, deploying small funds across multiple projects; hitting one can lead to a "turnaround."
From 1 to 4, risk increases, and potential maximum returns increase accordingly. #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配
The boss has something to say
Gold ETFs attracted $6.38 billion last week, the largest weekly inflow in nearly ten months. However, Citibank raised a concern, saying this wave is mainly driven by futures funds, while physical consumption in Asia has not kept up. Institutional allocation and short-term momentum are both at play.
Bitcoin is also in this window. Both gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs are attracting money, indicating that funds are increasing allocation to non-sovereign assets, and the US dollar credit is continuously weakening.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
But the pricing logic of gold and Bitcoin is different. Gold is influenced by real interest rates and safe-haven demand, while Bitcoin depends on liquidity and leverage. If the two types of ETFs continue to see synchronized inflows, the trend will be confirmed. If divergence occurs, it means the market is choosing between gold's defensive attributes and Bitcoin's high elasticity.
On the market front, Bitcoin is still oscillating around 77,000, ZEC short positions are maintained with floating profits of over 90 points. No heavy positions are taken before the direction becomes clear.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set for positions. Good luck.智谱上半年营收同比增399.7%，开放平台API收入激增2735.7%
智谱（02513.HK）发布2026年上半年业绩：实现收入9.54亿元人民币，同比增长399.7%；经调整净亏损19.64亿元。其中开放平台及API业务收入约8.25亿元（约1.23亿美元），同比大增2735.7%。
智谱作为国内头部大模型公司，其收入结构已明显向API和开放平台倾斜，API业务单季度爆发式增长，表明企业级AI调用需求正在快速释放。不过，尽管营收增速惊人，公司经调整净亏损仍达19.64亿元，反映出大模型训练和推理的高昂成本，以及行业仍处于跑马圈地阶段。从2026年上半年的数据看，智谱的商业化进程显著提速，API收入占比超过86%，说明其模型能力已具备较强的产品化和规模化变现能力。这一业绩也侧面印证了国内AI应用层需求正在从概念走向落地，尤其对B端市场的渗透正在加速。
市场影响：
间接受益：AI算力
- NVDA（英伟达）：智谱API业务爆发式增长背后需要大量GPU算力支持，作为全球AI芯片龙头，英伟达持续受益于大模型公司快速增长带来的算力需求
智谱的业绩虽然印证了AI商业化加速，但巨额亏损也Stripe consortium exits, PayPal drops nearly 13%, this is not just a simple acquisition rumor
Acquisition rumors are best at giving old companies a lifeline because they temporarily spare the market from answering tough questions: what to do about slow growth, stronger competition, and brand aging. Now that the buyer is gone, PayPal is pushed back into the spotlight and can only prove it can still compete on its own
Of course, PayPal is not without assets—users, merchants, Venmo, settlement network are all there. But the payment industry is evolving too fast: Stripe is grabbing developers, Apple Pay is grabbing entry points, stablecoins are grabbing cross-border settlements, and banks are also working on on-chain payments. PayPal is stuck in the middle, most afraid of being neither new enough nor cheap enough
After the deal fell through, the market is actually asking a very direct question: if no one else is buying you, how much are you worth yourself
#Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13% TRUMP at $2.40, do you dare to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: after a surge, high-level oscillation, retail investors are conflicted.
On August 22, there was extreme single-day volatility: opened at 1.87, peaked at 3.68, closed at 2.44. Since then, multiple attempts to test 3.0 were all pushed back. Today at 2.40, down 6%-8%, hovering slightly below the midline of the high-level oscillation range. 3.0-3.7 is a clear supply wall, and 2.28 below is a critical lifeline.
First thing: explosive rallies rely on sentiment, cashing out relies on the team.
The White House crypto summit combined with rising risk appetite ignited this surge from 1.4 to 3.68. Eric Trump just denied the "new coin issuance" rumor, calling it a scam—but the rumor itself was the best fuel.
During the rally, related wallets cashed out about $3.39 million through liquidity operations, and another approximately 2.62 million tokens (about $6.21 million) were transferred to OK.
You might think it's a "political faith" rally, but they treat it as "liquidity management."
Second thing: the supply structure is the biggest risk for this coin.
Total supply is 1 billion tokens, with about 251 million circulating. Trump-related entities (like CIC Digital) still control most chips and plan to unlock in batches. Around mid-September, another batch of about 28.7 million tokens is expected to be released.
Third thing: the technicals are at a "neither up nor down" position.
The daily structure rose from 1.37, with a 30-day gain still at 60%-75%, and the mid-term structure is not completely broken. But 3.0-3.7 is a clear supply zone; bulls tried to test it four times and were pushed back each time. Volume was huge on rally days but shrank significantly on pullbacks—chasing funds are retreating, not continuously accumulating.
Only by reclaiming 2.94 with volume can it challenge 3.6.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
- White House crypto summit + political heat remain, meme has narrative premium
- Higher highs and lows from 1.37, mid-term structure intact
- Huge contract volume, active short-term trading funds
- Support at 2.28-2.32 held multiple times
On the other side:
- Team cashed out nearly $10 million during the rally, real internal selling pressure
- Expected unlocking of about 28.7 million tokens mid-September, supply pressure incoming
- Two-thirds of wallets are still at a loss, selling pressure on rebounds
- Public Citizen report says related products caused investors to lose at least $4.7 billion unrealized
- California plans legislation to ban public officials from issuing meme coins, regulatory clouds
Resistance above: 2.52-2.60 → 2.72-2.94 → 3.05-3.20 → 3.60-3.68
Support below: 2.28-2.32 (strong support) → 2.11-2.17 → 2.00
Trading strategies
Plan A:
Wait for volume to push above 2.58-2.62 and hold on pullback before lightly going long, target 2.85-2.95, stop loss below 2.38. Don't chase the rebound from 2.4 after the downtrend unless volume picks up and turns within 1 hour.
Plan B:
Range between 2.28-2.95. Only go short-term long near 2.28-2.32 with volume contraction and a lower shadow, target 2.52/2.72, reduce positions at 2.85-2.95. If rebound to 2.72-2.94 lacks volume or has a long upper shadow, reduce longs or lighten shorts, target back to 2.50-2.40.
Plan C:
If daily close breaks below 2.28 effectively, short-term turns weak, exit or reverse to target 2.15-2.00. Only if volume recovers and holds above 2.94, raise target to 3.20-3.40.
Don't use "Trump tweeting" as an entry reason—his tweets can pump 20%, but team token transfers can dump 15%.
The catalysts for the rise (summit, rumors, short squeeze) have already played out. Cash-out, unlocking, regulation, and trapped holders remain. Macro environment doesn't support unlimited leverage for meme coins.
Only two scenarios make me more aggressive: stabilization near 2.28 with BTC strengthening simultaneously, or volume breakout above 2.94.
TRUMP is not an investment, it's a game—
99% treat it as "political faith," but remember: the team is selling, unlocking is coming, trapped holders are waiting to sell on rebounds. You bet on faith; they bet on liquidity.
"The biggest illusion of political memes is—you think you're betting on the future, but you're actually handing the bag to insiders."
What's your TRUMP cost?
At 2.40, do you dare to bottom-fish or wait for lower?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP 最近比特币涨到 80000，，有些人说，比特币跌到 6 万一定会买，一定会满仓 泼盆冷水，这根本做不到 2021 年，519 暴跌后，比特币从 64000 跌到 28000，载入历史的暴跌，很多山寨一个小时跌 50%，以太坊直接从 4200 一路插针到 1700 绝望，恐惧，弥漫在事后的那两个月 没想到，后来，熊市没来，比特币直接拉到 11 月的 69000 那段时间，我和朋友每次闲聊，都会斩钉截铁的说 “如果比特币再次跌到 28000，一定卖房梭哈” 2022 年来了 比特币从 69000 一路跌跌跌 再次回到 28000 的时候没敢买 因为LUNA崩盘了 跌破 20000 的时候没敢买 因为 三箭资本破产了 跌到 16000 的时候依然没敢买 因为FTX崩盘了 一个在恐慌中不敢买的人，再给他一次机会，依然不敢买 而一个聪明钱，只会在恐慌中买，不会考虑什么价格买 假设这次比特币跌破 7 万就恐慌，那么他们就开始买，不管后面还会怎么走 而有些人，7 万到了会等 6 万，6 万到了会等 5 万，5 万到了会等 4 万...... 他们唯一敢买的就是牛市末期，那个时候，价格大涨，好消息密集Leverage is not scary; what's scary is that you don't know how to use it at all.
A large number of people in the crypto space use leverage, and many end up dying because of it.
But I have always believed:
Leverage itself is not wrong; the problem is that you don't have a complete investment system but have learned to use leverage first.
In my system, leverage and spot trading are essentially the same.
The simplest way to understand it is buying a house with a mortgage.
Twenty or thirty years ago, when house prices were low enough and you didn't have enough principal, you could use low-cost loans to buy quality assets in advance; leverage amplifies your returns.
It's the same in the crypto world.
But I only use one kind of leverage:
At bottom areas, low multiples, loan-based, and only long positions.
Not 10x or 20x contracts, and definitely not guessing daily ups and downs.
My logic has three layers.
First, determine the long-term asset.
If the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to rise over the next few years, I focus on ETH rather than holding heavy positions in BTC simultaneously. Only when E/B reaches an obvious extreme area do I consider switching between ETH and BTC.
Second, judge the timing.
I'm not obsessed with "bull market or bear market."
Looking at the ten-year heat map of BTC and ETH, you can see:
Every year has months of gains and months of losses.
What I do is hold cash during down phases and hold coins during up phases.
Third, I only consider leverage when the price truly enters the bottom area.
First, fully or heavily load spot positions.
If the market continues to break down and enters an even more extreme low-price zone, I will pledge BTC to borrow USD, then buy BTC.Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stated: 20.07 million Bitcoins have been mined, accounting for 95.6% of the cap. If 10%–20% are permanently lost, the actual circulating supply is less than 18 million. Meanwhile, the US alone has about 23.6 million millionaires, so "one coin per person" does not hold. However, scarcity refers to the stock, while pricing depends on marginal liquidity. Currently, $BTC is priced at $78,572, up 0.56% in 24h, with a market cap of 1.57 trillion; about 930,000 remain to be mined until 2140, increasing by about 13,500 per month. In August, spot ETF net inflows exceeded $3 billion, equivalent to 38,000 coins, three times the recent monthly production. The supply side has long been extremely tight, yet the price remains below previous highs—the real selling pressure comes from the stock supply of long-term holders, not new issuance. Also, BTC can be divided into 100 million satoshis; the "whole coin" is just a narrative unit. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC Powell's silence lets the market digest the script on its own. Inflation stickiness remains, employment data leaves no room for concessions, financial conditions are neither clearly tight nor loose, officials verbally emphasize "data dependence" but are actually leaving room for expectations. Market pricing for November has gradually shifted from an even split to nearly 70% probability, short-term yields climbed to 4.45%, equities and commodities each seek direction, and crypto assets followed the risk curve back and forth.
$ETH In the early morning, Israel deployed tactical operations in the Golan Heights, and air raid sirens sounded on the Lebanon border, repricing geopolitical cues. BTC faced resistance near 79,500 and pulled back, with an intraday low of 78,200, testing the short-term bullish structure. The 78,000 to 79,000 range is a recent trading concentration zone; if this range is repeatedly tested without effective rebounds, the gap support between 76,500 and 77,500 will absorb selling pressure. If it can quickly reclaim above 78,800, short-term sentiment can remain stable; otherwise, the time for consolidation and correction will be extended.
$SOL Don't be fooled by the rebound, nor scared off by the decline. At this stage, waiting for a clear structure is more important than rushing to take positions. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. $BTC $ETH $SOL最新一周ETF资金数据出炉，比特币ETF单周净流入9.24亿美元，以太坊ETF也吸金8.24亿美元，两大主流币种的ETF同步迎来大规模资金进场。 两组数据放在一起，能直观感受到海外机构对于加密资产的配置热情依旧高涨。巨额的增量资金不断入场，一定程度上给市场提供了支撑，增强盘面的底层稳定性。以太坊ETF的流入规模已经十分接近比特币，也能看出机构对ETH的配置比重正在不断抬升。 但新闻里有一句很关键的提醒：资金可以大举流入，在行情下跌阶段，同样也会出现快速流出。不要只盯着亮眼的净流入数字就盲目乐观。 净流入代表当下机构在买入，但ETF资金是流动的，不是只进不出。一旦市场出现恐慌，机构同样会赎回离场，大额资金快速出逃的时候，会进一步放大行情的下跌力度。前面地缘消息引发的市场跳水，就是最好的例子。哪怕资金面有利好加持，突发消息依旧可以砸出剧烈回撤。 很多人看到巨额流入，就直接预判行情马上要迎来大涨。这里要分清，ETF是中长期配置信号，资金是分批沉淀的，不等于短期币价立刻拉升。 资金流入只能说明机构愿意在这个位置布局，不能直接当作短线做多的依据。盘面还会持续受到地缘局势、宏观消息、市场情绪多重因🌅 Early Monday morning, global financial markets plunged collectively, triggered by another clash between the US and Iran.
In the early hours of August 31, the U.S. airstrike on Iran's Lalak Island was the first publicly acknowledged physical military strike by the U.S. since the breakdown of the July ceasefire.
Unlike Iran's unilateral semi-blockade of the strait in March, this time the US proactively attacked rocket launchers, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired missiles in retaliation. The conflict has officially escalated from a simple pricing of oil price risk to a two-way direct military confrontation.
💡 A thought-provoking time background
Recently, Trump signaled negotiations, intending to start dialogue with Iran.
The underlying logic: domestic U.S. public opinion is war-weary and hopes to end Middle East consumption; Stabilizing oil prices and lowering inflation can also win public support for the midterm elections.
This raid has directly compressed the space for diplomatic negotiations.
There is a mainstream market speculation: some forces are not happy about a smooth reconciliation between the US and Iran.
Israel has always firmly opposed compromise with Iran, and if ceasefire negotiations materialize, it would weaken the legitimacy of its military actions; Hawks within the U.S. are also reluctant to proceed smoothly with negotiations
The crypto market weakened simultaneously, with BTC falling below the 78,000 mark.
One noteworthy phenomenon: in this round of geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin's movement is linked in sync with crude oil, rather than following gold
Interestingly, traditional safe-haven asset gold did not rise as expected; instead, it gapped up and opened lower.
The macro logic behind this is worth pondering: the market's current pricing is no longer simply panic and risk aversion.
The surge in oil prices has raised concerns about energy inflation, directly squeezing the Fed's room for rate cuts $BTC 📝 Today's share on $ETH
ETH at 2400, I think it's an opportunity
ETH is back to 2400 again.
I remember at the beginning of August when ETH was at 1850, everyone was complaining "Ethereum is done," the exchange rate dropped to 0.029, and many people cut losses and exited. Then what happened? It rose to 2500 in three weeks, and those who came back were left waiting.
Now ETH is back to 2400, the bearish news is that whales are selling—40,000 coins dumped in two days, about $120 million. Retail investors got scared and followed the sell-off.
But on the other side, the Ethereum spot ETF has had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling over $1.4 billion, with BlackRock alone buying $1 billion. Whales are selling, institutions are buying. Who is doing the right thing? History tells me it's the latter.
ETH at 2400, exchange rate 0.031, not far from the two-year low. I think this level is not expensive. I'm not telling you to go all in, but I suggest you don't panic sell at this price.
When institutions are buying and retail investors are panicking, it's usually the start of a good trade.
I won't sell at this level. I'll wait, wait for 2380 to hold, wait for the whales to finish dumping, wait for the exchange rate to rebound. I've held this from 1870 until now; if you panic after a few hundred points of pullback, then you might as well not do long-term.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The market looks strong on the surface. The interesting part is that BTC still can’t clear $80K. Bitcoin is around $78.4K after a roughly 24% August rally, while U.S. spot BTC ETFs pulled about $1.92B last week. That’s real demand — yet price remains below the same psychological resistance. That tells me the market is bullish, but not yet confirmed. There’s another risk: renewed U.S.–Iran tensions are pushing oil higher and increasing expectations for a more hawkish Fed. That macro pressure canThis week's employment data is being released intensively, and the hawkish tone set by the Jackson Hole event is about to be tested.
ADP, initial jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls are coming out one after another; the first hard data after the annual meeting will directly determine the policy direction for September.
Last week, the first Jackson Hole appearance by the Fed released a clear hawkish signal: firmly insisting that the 2% inflation target is non-negotiable, believing that the summer inflation improvement is insufficient to prove a trend reversal, the labor market is still in a full employment range, and if inflation cannot quickly fall back, "there is still work to be done." After the speech, the market's probability of a September rate hike rose directly from 35% to about 60%.
Employment data is the core premise of this hawkish logic. Employment resilience supports consumption and wages, which ultimately transmits to inflation stickiness. If the data is overall strong, it validates the Fed's judgment, and rate hike expectations will continue to heat up, putting further pressure on risk assets; if employment cools significantly, the hawkish stance will directly loosen, and the market will quickly adjust expectations for a policy shift.
Regarding the crypto market, currently $BTC is oscillating narrowly between 77,000-78,000, $ETH is repeatedly battling around 2,400, and $SOL is consolidating between 100-103; both bulls and bears are waiting for data to set the direction. If the data leans hawkish, key supports will be tested: BTC looks at 76,000-77,000, breaking that targets 75,000; ETH looks at 2,400, breaking that targets 2,300; SOL looks at 100, breaking that targets 97. If the data leans dovish, it opens room for a rebound.
My view: try to keep light positions and observe before the data is released; don't bet on direction prematurely, wait for clear signals before making moves.
Personal opinion, for pure communication.🔥 $BTC | THE SUPPLY-SIDE BATTLE
Bitcoin gained roughly 24% in August, its strongest August since 2017, while spot ETFs attracted about $1.92B in one week.
The deeper thesis:$BTC
BTC is entering a market where demand is becoming more structural — but the real question is how much supply long-term holders are willing to release.
That’s where the next repricing gets decided. 🔥$BTC
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation Intraday volatility may be weak. From pre-market signals, the three major stock index futures generally declined: S&P 500 futures fell about 0.17%, Dow futures about 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures once fell 0.7%. Market sentiment is weak, with the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rising to 60%. Rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, historically directly linked to reduced liquidity and downward price pressure. Geopolitical conflicts amplify crypto market volatility through oil prices→ inflation expectations→ interest rate paths→ global risk appetite, and BTC has seen a short-term decoupling from gold. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of about $3 billion for nine consecutive days, but ETF subscriptions were suspended over the weekend, temporarily disrupting the main demand channel supporting the recent rally. $BTC/$ETH both under pressure: $BTC fell below $78,000, $ETH declined even more (-1.61%), and has fallen below $2,500. $ETH daily chart closed with a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, with heavy selling pressure above. US and Iran resumed operations in Iran, Brent crude jumped 2.5% to $90.32. In theory, this should trigger risk aversion and benefit Bitcoin, but in reality, Bitcoin and gold have seen a short-term depegging—gold fell 3.8% during the week, BTC still maintains positive returns, indicating the market is currently pricing in the chain of "rising oil prices→ worsening inflation→ Fed making rate cuts harder," rather than "buying BTC → safe-haven." ETF flows: Last week, ETFs saw net inflows of about $3 billion for nine consecutive days, but outflows occurred on the day of the speech. ETF after the US market opened tonight随着9月拉开序幕，美国劳动力数据可能为加密货币市场定下基调，周五的就业报告将成为本周的主要事件。7月非农就业人数减少2.3万，而5月和6月的数据合计下修10.3万——这大幅提高了对8月读数（市场预期为5.8万）的关注度 ADP私人就业人数和JOLTS职位空缺为就业情况提供了较早的观察。若数据走弱，可能会降低对加息的预期，并打压美国国债收益率和美元。反之，若出现反弹，影响则将朝另一方向发展 工资单（就业）数据落在一个拒绝事先承诺的美联储之上 周五的数据权重高于典型的工资单发布，因为凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）所说的话。 沃什拒绝承诺任何事情——“我今天站在这里所致力的是一项纪律，而不是一项决定”——并将前瞻指引视为常规做法予以否定，认为这在“真正危机之外已经超出欢迎的时限”。StoneX的法瓦德·拉扎克扎达（Fawad Razaqzada）直接解读其后果：在新主席之下，美联储变得更加依赖数据。一家不会发出路径信号的委员会，其9月16日的决策将取决于会间的数据。 讲话期间，市场对更鹰派的定价迅速上修：根据CME美联储观察（FedWatch），Bitcoin faces the most critical test of the month after a surge: climbing from 62,000 to above 80,000, it suddenly encountered selling pressure, with the price clearly resisted around 81,000 and then falling back to near 77,000. On the surface, this looks like another high-level correction, but what truly deserves attention is not the decline itself, but the market's directional choice after losing momentum.🟠
The 80,000 mark is not only a psychological price level but also the real resistance point in this rally. After the price fell below it, short-term momentum quickly weakened. Currently, 77,000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears—if it can hold and rebound back to the 78,000 to 80,000 range, this can still be seen as a normal consolidation after a sharp rise; if it fails, the structure will shift toward a deeper demand zone between 72,000 and 74,000. Compared to news, the gain or loss of support levels is more worth watching.
This wave of decline is not solely due to pressure in the crypto market. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials at Jackson Hole have changed the macro environment, implying that if inflation does not clearly fall to the 2% target, interest rates may still rise. U.S. Treasury yields have risen, the dollar has strengthened, and the probability of a rate hike has jumped from about 35% to over 55%, putting pressure on risk assets generally, and Bitcoin is no exception.
The upcoming trend is essentially a test of whether Bitcoin can maintain resilience in an environment of weakening liquidity expectations.📊
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above is only an objective review and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously. $BTC$TRUMP — Is the Momentum Over?
I’m holding a $TRUMP short from around $2.60, position size ~$6,200, currently +$408.
Open Interest is declining after the recent surge, while funding sits at -0.0104%. Shorts are crowded, so a squeeze remains the biggest risk here. Momentum is also starting to weaken after the explosive move higher.
As long as $TRUMP stays below $2.60–$2.70, I expect the correction to continue. First target: $2.20–$2.25. If that zone breaks, I’m watching $2.00 next.Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to be aware of risks. The vast majority of losses in the market do not come from the market itself, but from traders' own cognitive biases. People instinctively interpret the market based on their own subjective expectations, selectively accepting signals that align with their own ideas, and filtering out conflicting realities. The logic behind BTC and ETH market trends is complex and easily amplifies such psychological misconceptions. Often, it's not that the market is misreading, but that our cognitive filters distort objective facts. Recognizing common cognitive biases is essential for improving the quality of trading decisions. The most common bias in Bitcoin is overly optimistic linear extrapolation. When ETFs continue to see net inflows and long-term holders hold solid chips, the market naturally deduces: since the foundation is solid, the market will keep rising. But in reality, stable chips can only limit downside space, not open up upward potential. Macro liquidity, trapped positions above, and institutional periodic profit-taking will all become constraints for upward movement. Many traders directly equate "large-scale cycle logic holds" with "short-term inevitable rises," ignoring the possibility of prolonged fluctuations in between. Seeing positive on-chain indicators, they assume a breakout is imminent, ignoring that macro conditions are not yet fully in place. Bitcoin has no cash flow; valuation is determined by external conditions. If the underlying logic is correct, it can still experience quarterly sideways movements. At the same time, there is another bias: short-term redemptions or pullbacks completely reject medium- to long-term allocation logic and treat temporary fluctuations as trend reversals. True maturityThe market has been trading sideways with shrinking volume for a long time, trading volume remains sluggish, and both bulls and bears have temporarily reached a balance, lacking enough strength to push prices out of a major rally. In this environment, the gap between market expectations and actual fundamentals is becoming increasingly apparent. On Bitcoin's side, institutional allocation narratives still hold true, but capital behavior has changed. Spot ETFs no longer see sustained large net inflows; funds fluctuate with macro data, and institutions focus more on economic fundamentals rather than blindly entering through narratives. Long-term on-chain coin accumulation remains stable, with many assets dormant, providing bottom support for prices. However, various innovations in the second-layer ecosystem are still in the iteration and improvement stage, with long implementation cycles, making it difficult to become market hotspots in the short term. Bitcoin's price remains highly dependent on external liquidity conditions, and changes in macro expectations directly influence market fluctuations. Ethereum's on-chain fundamentals have not deteriorated, staking and lock sizes remain high, deflationary mechanisms continue to operate, and layer-2 network infrastructure continues to iterate and optimize. However, the real problems of the ecosystem remain unresolved; the industry still relies mainly on stock competition, making it difficult to attract large numbers of external new users. The dividends brought by technological upgrades are long-term and cannot be quickly realized as market rallies. Even with continuous improvement of underlying infrastructure, ETH's trend remains difficult to break away from the overall market environment, and conditions for independent rallies are not yet in place. The biggest problem in the current market is the lack of a core catalyst to break the deadlock. The market keeps repricing the timing of rate cuts, overseas regulatory policies are uncertain, and on-chainWhales are starting to increase their long positions in ETH and SOL.
The market might interpret these positions as "big money betting early on altcoin catch-up rallies," but my judgment differs: whale positions only tell me that someone is willing to take on risk; they do not confirm the direction.
Today, Hyperliquid's third largest ETH long added about 5,089 ETH, with an average entry price around $2,449. The total long position is now about 30,300 ETH, still showing significant unrealized gains overall. On the other side, an address has been building a long position of about 282,700 SOL since the weekend, with an average cost of approximately $104.79, a nominal size close to $30 million.
Note, both of these are verifiable long positions, not ordinary transfers misinterpreted as "whales going long."
But why am I not following?
Because the macro environment is exerting pressure in the opposite direction. BTC is still capped at $80,000, US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices above $90, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike again in September have intensified.
So what I’m watching now is whether the price proves the whales right.
If ETH can hold near 2,440 and continue upward, I remain bullish; if SOL can firmly reclaim 105–107, then I acknowledge this large position gaining the upper hand.
Conversely, if whales keep adding but ETH and SOL fail to break key levels, I will be more cautious—because that means big money is accumulating, but selling pressure is still absorbing their chips.
Whales can withstand 20% volatility; we don’t necessarily have to go along with them #Solana Inflation Reduction Proposal Passed the Vote
The leader has something to say
The SOL inflation reduction proposal just passed with 67% support, 176.29M votes in favor, just crossing the two-thirds threshold. Over six years, 18.9 million fewer SOL will be issued.
The voting process was intense; Kraken, the largest validator, switched to support at the last moment, Galaxy Digital abstained then voted in favor, and the Helius CEO made 500 calls to rally votes. Community participation was high, with 1,326 validators voting and a turnout rate of 60.7%. $BTC $ETH $SOL
In the long term, supply tightens, and staking yields will drop from 5.25% to around 2.25%. Whether transaction fees can cover the shortfall is the key point to watch next. Don't chase the short-term high; SOL has risen from 103 to 116, already fulfilling most of the expected gains. Buy again on a pullback to the 103-105 range, with a stop loss at 98.
The proposal implementation requires 4.5 months of technical development, so inflation won't decrease immediately. The positive narrative is already priced in; the real supply change will come next year. Take what you should take, wait if you should wait.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop loss. Good luck.So, what’s next?
$77,000 is the most critical short-term level. If it holds, there’s a chance to test $80,000 again; if it doesn’t, we could see $75,000 or even $72,000–$73,000. In a more pessimistic scenario, Citibank’s bearish target price is $53,000.
That said, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped from last week’s 81 "Extreme Greed" to now between 61 and 75, indicating cooling market sentiment. "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"—this phrase is overused, but few really dare to act on it when it comes true.
This recent drop is essentially a triple resonance of tightening macro interest rate expectations + geopolitical risk premium + a short-term liquidity vacuum. The long-term fundamentals haven’t changed, but the short-term pain is real.
Are you choosing to cut losses and exit, or to buy the dip in batches during the panic? Share your thoughts in the comments. Follow me, and after we get through this period, we’ll meet at the top.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Employment data is coming, and rate hike expectations have already tightened 👊
This week, JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and non-farm payrolls will be released one after another. The labor market will be the ultimate judge for the September rate hike. July's non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June were cumulatively revised down by 103,000 — hiring demand is indeed cooling, which was originally a reason to support pausing rate hikes.
But Waller burned those expectations down at Jackson Hole. Inflation is above 2%, financial conditions are not yet restrictive — after hearing this, the market immediately pushed the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to nearly 60%. U.S. Treasury yields rose, and both gold and BTC were suppressed.
This week's data will be crucial: if employment continues to cool, Waller's hawkish stance will loosen; if employment strengthens instead, the market will have to reprice the interest rate path.
$BTC finally surged above 80,000, whether it can hold this week depends entirely on the data.
What do you think? 🙈#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 New data has emerged recently on the supply side of $BTC‼️‼️
BTC that hasn't moved for over 10 years has reached 3.56 million coins, accounting for 17.7% of the circulating supply, hitting a historic high! In the past 30 days, another 14,000 BTC have joined the "sleeping" ranks.
This data means that 1 out of every 6 BTC hasn't moved for over 10 years.
Long-term holders are not selling either; addresses holding for more than 155 days control 16.35 million BTC, accounting for 83% of the total circulating supply, with an increase of about 1.38 million in the past 90 days. CZ also mentioned a few days ago that an estimated 10%-20% of BTC may be permanently lost.
The supply side is indeed tightening. With fewer BTC available for circulation, any new demand will have a greater impact on the price, but where is the demand⁉️
Scarcity can only truly translate into upward momentum when demand picks up. The 21 million cap on Bitcoin is fixed, but the actual tradable chips may be much fewer than imagined. This story has been told for over a decade; what the market needs is buying pressure, not stories.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 Hello everyone, good evening market update 🐮🐮
My personal judgment is that BTC will continue to move upward, with the first target at 79500, then looking to break through 81500, after which a pullback is expected.
On Friday, the speech by Walsh landed, the market interpreted it as hawkish, raising rate hike expectations, BTC dipped to 76800. Over the weekend, market liquidity was sluggish, and the whales took the opportunity to push the price up to 79300, essentially to collect contract liquidity, then closed by smashing back near 76900, a rise in vain.
From this wave of market action, the probability of a bullish trend is actually higher. I have already entered a long position, with two points above prepared for taking profit.
Gold is also bullish, with long positions arranged at 4440.
I always believe Walsh's speech is essentially neutral to dovish, but the market over-interpreted it as hawkish.
The US is now in a dilemma: no rate hike means inflation is hard to suppress; rate hikes mean US debt and fiscal pressure will be unbearable.
Moreover, except for China, the whole world is raising rates, and cross-border arbitrage space is narrowing.
By the way, about AI: the story can be told, but if large continuous investments do not produce actual effective output, even the best narrative will collapse. Trust and capital investment will continuously decay over time.
⚠️This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC C $XAU On August 27, Charles Schwab announced that it will add these three assets to Schwab Crypto in the coming months. Previously, the platform only offered spot trading for BTC and ETH. This signifies Wall Street's recognition of mainstream crypto assets expanding from BTC and ETH to a few leading altcoins. SOL, AVAX, and LINK have earned their ticket into traditional investment accounts. The door is open, but whether funds will flow in depends on the market. Charles Schwab is not an ordinary brokerage. Founded in 1971, Charles Schwab seized the opportunity when the U.S. abolished fixed commission rates in 1975, significantly lowering stock trading costs and becoming a representative of discount brokers in the U.S. In 2019, Schwab was the first to reduce online trading commissions for U.S. stocks and ETFs to zero. In 2020, it completed the acquisition of TD Ameritrade, bringing the thinkorswim trading platform under its umbrella. Schwab's position in the U.S. financial market is close to a combination of brokerage, banking, asset management platform, and advisory infrastructure. As of the end of July 2026, Schwab had 39.9 million active securities accounts, client assets totaling $13.04 trillion, and served over 16,000 independent advisory firms. By client assets, it is the largest publicly listed investment services company in the U.S. Schwab's operating data. Therefore, this should not be simply understood as an exchange adding three new coins. Listing coins on an exchange adds a trading entry within the crypto community. Schwab listing coins means integrating crypto assets into the traditional investors' familiar environment $CORE eagerly awaited positive news, but what came was just another harvesting script.
The gate is built splendidly, but the construction site has long been halted. CORE's recent market performance vividly illustrates this saying.
The circulation rate quietly reached 70.78%, and the pace of chip release suddenly accelerated. At midnight, the official Twitter timely released a dose of hype narrative; many holders woke up to the news, thinking the turning point had finally arrived, eagerly adding positions to catch the bottom.
The ending never brings surprises.
A large volume of unlocked chips during the day swarmed to crush the market; the brief pulse flashed by, and the coin price fell back and weakened again.
This script has been played countless times: laying out new stories overseas late at night, fermenting emotions through time differences, waiting for domestic retail investors to enter with high hopes, just to absorb the continuous selling pressure.
SatPay and BTCFi promotions are everywhere, but the landing progress keeps being delayed, and on-chain real activity remains low for a long time. Without real business bringing incremental buying, the project can only keep weaving new narratives, barely sustaining the community's remaining faith.
It’s not an immediate run, but the traces of seizing the window period to distribute chips in batches while the market position is still acceptable can no longer be hidden.
Nearly 30% of tokens are still not in circulation, and heavy selling pressure will hang over holders for a long time.
No matter how flashy the marketing narrative is, it ultimately cannot cover up the long-stagnant ecosystem. Setting Fed events aside, the key differences come down to liquidity, chip structure and valuation. 🟠 $BTC Institutional ETF demand + strong long-term holders = relatively stable supply. Without fresh external capital, BTC may remain range-bound rather than enter a sustained breakout. 🔵 $ETH A mix of institutional, DeFi, L2 and derivatives capital. Staking reduces liquid supply, but trapped overhead supply and L2 value diversion remain constraints. ETH needs stronger ecosystem fundamentals to Exchange decentralization.
On August 20, Binance launched Agent OS, packaging trading, market data, wallets, payments, and on-chain services into standardized interfaces, allowing third-party AI applications to connect directly, with MCP protocol support as well. It didn't create another chatbot but enabled agents to actually perform operations.
The key lies in permission design.
Documentation shows agents can only operate dedicated sub-accounts; funds must be manually transferred in, withdrawal permissions are restricted, and they cannot access the main account balance. This is more restrained than I expected. My judgment: AI agent trading will come sooner or later; the difference lies in how cleanly risk isolation is implemented. Before using, check three things: the maximum funds the agent can move, whether withdrawals are restricted, and if there is a manual circuit breaker. Letting agents place orders for you is fine, but handing over the main account keys is not.With the midterm elections approaching, the US military strikes Iran again. Who gave Trump the courage? Liang Jingru?
Of course not!
┈➤ The US and Venezuela reach an oil agreement
◆ August 28: Trump announced an oil agreement with Venezuela.
◆ August 29-30: Venezuela disclosed more details of the agreement.
◆ August 30-31: The US military attacked Iran again.
┈➤ A decent agreement
This cooperation is between the US government and Venezuela's private company NABEP, which does not own oil fields but only has development rights.
In terms of shareholding, the US holds 35%, Venezuela holds 65%.
The US can purchase 20% of the oil production at cost price with priority.
Overall, Venezuela holds a higher equity share at 65%, while the US side has a higher oil production allocation right at 55%.
Therefore, Venezuela still retains sovereignty and control over oil resources. The US gains future crude oil supply.
┈➤ In conclusion
It is precisely because of this agreement that Trump has confidence. After the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil industry, crude oil production can increase and be exported to the US, which will help lower US oil prices.
Of course, rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure, which has been idle for many years, also takes time. So in the short term, it at most soothes market sentiment. Trump is unlikely to take large-scale action against Iran in the short term. At least not before the midterm elections.The roadmap is here.
Ethlabs released the EIP priorities for the Hegotá hard fork: S-level includes EIP-8198 Quick Slots to shorten block time, EIP-8131/8279 to optimize resource pricing; A-level is EIP-8141 Frame Transactions for native account abstraction, managing passkey wallets, gas sponsorship, and batch transactions. Censorship resistance relies on FOCIL.
In short: Ethereum aims to be faster, more censorship-resistant, and make wallets no longer dependent on mnemonic phrases.
My judgment: Don’t wait until the mainnet launch to learn; you can understand the direction now. When choosing wallets and apps, first check three things: whether passkey is supported, if gas can be sponsored, and if transactions can be batched. These are not distant promises but items on the hard fork checklist. $BTC whale position profit and loss data! The story behind it is really something.
The market is currently in an uptrend.
Long positions hold a value of $4.473 billion, with margin at $639 million, about 7x leverage, and unrealized profit of $368 million, indicating that the long position cost is far below the current price, with a large accumulation of profitable positions.
Short positions hold a value of $5.043 billion, with margin at $822 million, about 6.13x leverage. This shows shorts are adding positions against the trend, and with sufficient margin, they are holding strong.
The longs are also in a difficult spot, winning on paper but continuously bleeding, feeling somewhat stuck.
Although longs have an unrealized profit of $368 million, they have already paid $41.69 million in funding fees.
That's about one-tenth of the profit.
The space gained by longs over time is narrowing.
If the price can't be pushed up, holding long for a long time risks a much more severe drawdown than shorts once the price can't hold.
Because longs face dual bleeding from price drops and funding fee expenses.
As shown, a certain whale's long position has a cost of 77,089, position value of $146 million, current price 78,460 with unrealized profit of $2.29 million, and funding fees already paid of $1.86 million. This means the price doesn't even need to fall below cost; if it drops near 78,000, this account enters a loss state.
Shorts, as long as margin is sufficient, can use time to gain space.
Additionally, the current potential risk is significant.
Longs have accumulated $368 million in unrealized profits.
Once the upward momentum disappears, some profitable whales may choose to take profits and exit, potentially causing a chain reaction of profit-taking.
This morning's price drop was very likely caused by whales taking profits.
As time goes on, without strong upward momentum, more whales may choose to take profits.
Therefore, after the market rally reaches a certain height and the uptrend starts to weaken, it's time to consider locking in gains.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and not investment advice! $ZORA is getting plenty of attention after its recent move, but the real story may be hiding in the derivatives market. Open interest is now around $47M, while longs still dominate positioning at roughly 58%. That kind of imbalance can become risky if momentum suddenly fades. The interesting part is funding. Despite the bullish sentiment around the coin, funding has turned slightly negative. That suggests the derivatives market isn’t completely convinced that the upside move can continue. For meOracle seen again.
Tectonic is a lending protocol running on Cronos. On August 30, attackers used the low-liquidity token TONIC as collateral, driving its price up about a hundredfold within twenty minutes, then borrowed tens of millions of dollars in stablecoins and ETH. The total loss is estimated between 75 million and 120 million dollars. Validators directly halted the entire chain.
The chain was stopped.
About 6 million dollars were bridged to Ethereum, while over 68 million remained frozen on the chain. The root cause of this kind of attack is not how clever the hackers are, but the oracle pricing being too naive: a token with thin daily trading volume can have its price pumped to borrow real money. In the future, when using lending protocols, first check three things: whether the collateral asset has sufficient liquidity, how many sources the oracle price feed has, and whether there is a circuit breaker mechanism after a risk event. Pausing the entire chain is a lifesaving measure, not a routine operation.90-day correlations are shifting. $BTC is becoming less correlated with Nasdaq tech while moving closer to gold. Meanwhile, $ETH remains strongly tied to tech risk assets. That suggests institutional positioning may be diverging: 🟠 BTC → increasingly viewed as a hedge against debt/liquidity risks 🔵 ETH → still trading more like a growth-oriented risk asset But don’t ignore rates. When Treasury yields surge, even gold and BTC can face pressure. Long term: debt expansion may support BTC. Short t