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CORE: Saying Goodbye to the Inflation Narrative, Entering the Era of Real Revenue in 2026
⚠️ Content is for track communication and review only, not investment advice
Many people's impression of CORE still lingers in the early days of airdrops and inflation incentives.
But in 2026, it has adopted a new approach.
In the past, public chains relied on token subsidies to fuel the ecosystem and used inflation to generate hype; when the hype faded, the token price reverted to its original state. This is a cycle that most public chains cannot escape.
Core DAO's answer this year: no longer telling stories through token issuance, but relying on real ecological transaction fee revenue to create a buyback flywheel.
Its positioning is very clear: the Bitcoin power grid.
Bitcoin has trillions in assets long stored in cold wallets, which can only be hoarded, not yield interest or participate in DeFi. lstBTC is non-custodial liquid staking; BTC holders do not have to give up ownership but can obtain liquid staking certificates to lend, trade, and earn yields, unlocking the liquidity of dormant Bitcoin stock.
Custodial institutions like BitGo, Cobo, Fireblocks, etc., are all integrated, offering BTC staking services to institutions; SatPay Bitcoin payment banking continues to advance, connecting staking yield, lending, and debit card spending to generate real transaction fee income, which flows back to token buybacks.
The previous dispute and settlement with Maple Finance was interpreted by many as a defeat.
In essence, it was a business stop-loss: both parties did not admit fault, ended the long litigation, recovered user assets, cleared ecological negatives, and focused all energy on 2026 revenue realization, no longer wasting resources on internal conflicts.
The bullish logic is straightforward:
✅ BTCFi is a major trend; the financialization of Bitcoin assets is an important narrative for the next bull market;
✅ Shifting from inflation-driven to business revenue-driven; if ecological fees and buybacks can be realized, the token value logic will be completely rewritten;
✅ Multiple lines including institutional custody, lstBTC, and SatPay are advancing simultaneously, with product launch expectations.
But risks cannot be ignored:
🔴 Strong narrative, but ultimately depends on implementation progress; a blueprint does not equal real output;
🔴 Intense competition in the BTCFi track, with competitors continuously diverting traffic;
🔴 Tokens still face unlocking and selling pressure; the overall Bitcoin market will greatly affect CORE's performance, and small token volatility will be much greater than BTC.
In a bull market, track stories only give you imagination space; what truly determines how far it goes is whether the narrative can be turned into tangible revenue.
CORE is now standing at this crossroads of validation.
$CORE #CoreDAO #BTCFiWhy does Bitcoin rise every 4 years?
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile.
This can be divided into six major layers: supply side, demand side, macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, chip and leverage, narrative and belief.
1. Supply side: Scarcity, four-year halving (fundamental basis)
Total permanent cap of 21 million coins, no additional issuance.
Halving occurs every 4 years, cutting miners' daily new Bitcoin production in half, reducing new selling pressure in the market.
- Historical pattern: The market often trades ahead of halving expectations; major peaks mostly appear 12-18 months after halving.
- Current status: 94% of Bitcoin has been mined, with fewer new coins entering circulation; a large amount of coins remain unmoved long-term (whales hoarding, cold wallets), reducing liquid chips on exchanges, so a small amount of capital can push prices up.
2. Demand side: Real buying pressure, institutions are the biggest variable this cycle
1. US spot ETFs
BlackRock and other ETFs provide pension funds, family offices, and ordinary Americans a compliant channel to buy BTC; continuous net inflows into ETFs represent ongoing passive buying and are the most important indicator of the mid-term trend.
2. Public companies hoarding coins (e.g., MicroStrategy)
Companies convert part of their cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, continuously buying and directly absorbing circulating market chips.
3. Global retail and high-net-worth allocations
Treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge fiat overissuance and geopolitical risks.
3. Macro liquidity (largest impact, primary short-term driver)
Bitcoin is a highly elastic risk asset, highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity.
1. Fed rate cut expectations, US Treasury yields declining
Lower risk-free interest rates cause funds to flow out of bonds into stocks, Bitcoin, and other risk assets; when Treasury yields surge, Bitcoin usually comes under pressure.
2. Weakening US dollar makes Bitcoin priced in dollars more likely to rise.
Simply put: In a loose liquidity environment, Bitcoin is more likely to bull; when liquidity tightens, even strong narratives are easily suppressed.
4. Regulatory policy expectations
- Positive: Clear crypto legislation in the US, softer SEC stance, ETF approvals, more countries allowing compliant holdings will open space for incremental capital inflows.
- Negative: Comprehensive bans and strict regulations directly suppress the market.
A large part of the bull market is trading on "expectations of improved regulation."
5. Chip structure + leverage short squeeze (short-term surge catalyst)
1. Long-term on-chain holders do not move: large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets, not sold, shrinking circulating supply.
2. Derivatives leverage: When price breaks key resistance, a large number of accumulated short positions are forcibly liquidated; shorts buying coins to close positions become passive buying pressure, further driving prices up—this is a short squeeze. Many rapid large green candles come from leverage liquidations, not all from spot buying.
6. Narrative belief: value consensus
Two core narratives:
1. Inflation resistance, hedge against fiat depreciation: governments can print money, but Bitcoin’s total supply cannot be changed.
2. Decentralized digital value storage, not controlled by any single country.
The narrative itself does not directly drive price up but attracts capital willing to allocate, turning the story into real money.
Conversely, what can interrupt the rise?
1. Fed rate hikes again, liquidity tightening; US Treasury yields continue rising.
2. ETFs shift from net inflows to sustained large redemptions, institutional capital withdraws.
3. Global economic crisis, all risk assets crash together.
4. Major negative regulatory news.
5. Excessive leverage accumulation followed by concentrated long liquidations causing a crash.
In summary
Halving tightens supply as the foundation; macro liquidity determines the overall environment; ETFs and institutional funds provide incremental buying; regulation opens institutional space; leverage and sentiment amplify price swings.
Looking at a single factor alone leads to misjudgment; multiple factors must resonate together to produce a major bull market.🌁 AI Crypto Monitor
Short read: USDT and USDC market signals. A clean timeline matters when fast headlines start to spread.
🕵️ Arthur Hayes deposited 6,000 $ETH ($10.14M) into FalconX and Galaxy Digital.
📘 Follow whether builders, users or liquidity respond.$BTC’s August rally was not driven by aggressive leverage.
Bitcoin moved from roughly $63.5K to $80K while futures open interest fell about 9%, from ~646K BTC to ~588K BTC.
Price up + OI down usually means short covering and deleveraging, not a crowded long chase.
For bulls, the next test is a sustained reclaim of $80K.$XRP is showing a different derivatives setup from $BTC.
XRP futures exposure outside CME fell by more than 500M tokens in two weeks, while CME exposure rose roughly 36% as price approached $1.40.
That suggests leverage is rotating toward regulated markets. A clean hold above $1.40 could keep momentum alive; rejection may trigger a fast pullback.Bitcoin hovers near the $80,000 mark, but market sentiment shows subtle divergence. While retail investors hesitate, wondering if $80,318 is too expensive, Strategy chooses to continue adding positions at this price level, with a base cost of $75,412. This means that for this institution, $80,000 is just the replenishment cost after floating profits, not a risky chase for highs.
This confidence in operation stems from ample liquidity reserves. Data shows Strategy has about $6.69 billion in available funds, with this investment only $370 million, a very small proportion. Looking back at January and May, its single purchase sizes both exceeded $2 billion, making this move appear quite restrained, more like a strategic layout reserving space for lower price points.
From a behavioral logic perspective, the institution dares to buy at a price above the average cost, indicating its valuation anchor is set on the more distant future rather than short-term fluctuations. After ten weeks, it acts again and chooses to add positions after turning profitable, a series of moves that convey its judgment on future market potential.
For ordinary investors, this is not a simple "copycat" signal. The institution's long-term perspective, capital scale, and risk tolerance fundamentally differ from individual investors. $BTC price volatility remains intense; please view market changes rationally and carefully assess your own risk tolerance. 📊 $XAU Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Long positions have been crushed from an extreme 10,246x leverage down to 71.7x — a nuclear-level liquidation of gold short leverage completed within 4 hours, after which momentum continued to decline but longs still firmly controlled the market.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $358.86 $332.67 $26.19
4 hours $1,596,500 $1,596,400 $155.79
12 hours $5,933,300 $5,867,900 $65,400
24 hours $10,188,100 $10,048,000 $140,100
From the XAU liquidation data, in 1 hour longs crushed shorts by 12.7x with a volume of only $358; in 4 hours the long advantage soared to 10,246x with volume exploding to $1.5965 million, while short liquidation was only $155.79 — this is the most extreme crushing ratio in a single time window among all products today, bar none; at 12 hours the long advantage narrowed to 89.7x with volume rising to $5.9333 million, momentum marginally retreating from the peak; at 24 hours the long advantage further dropped to 71.7x at close, with long liquidations at $10.048 million versus shorts at $140,100, totaling over $10.18 million in liquidations. The long leverage ratio moved from 12.7x → 10,246x → 89.7x → 71.7x, showing a V-shaped reversal followed by high-level exhaustion. The short squeeze momentum peaked at 4 hours and then gradually declined but remained in a very strong range. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 58.2% of the 24-hour total, indicating moderate concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; the direction is clear but momentum is retreating from the peak, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish stance is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists forecast about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly shrank by 23,000, and May-June combined revisions cut 103,000 jobs.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "fall clearly and fast enough" to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at the July FOMC; cooling inflation and slowing hiring suggest hikes are unlikely this year. If data weakens again this week, the 66% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Historic High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin gained 28% in August, briefly surpassing $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a historic high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US debt surpassing $40 trillion means investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF drew nearly $3.4 billion, and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role transition from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Under Further Scrutiny
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell led with an earnings beat after market close on September 1: Q2 revenue $46.97 billion, well above the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion, also exceeding expectations; the company significantly raised its full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and if Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkishness — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation could quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and historic correlation highs; Dell has proven AI server demand is still booming with an earnings beat, and Broadcom will take over the test tonight.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 NVIDIA 财报刚把算力叙事续上了，但市场真正的考验，这周才刚开始。 你有没有发现，大家的目光已经从芯片本身，悄悄挪到了那些接棒交卷的公司身上？ 今晚戴尔盘后出业绩，明天博通和 Snowflake 跟上。这三家放在一起看，其实是在回答同一个问题：AI 的投入，到底能不能从买芯片那一步，顺利传导到服务器、网络和软件订阅这些更靠后的环节里。 硬件这边，重点盯戴尔的 AI 服务器订单，以及博通的定制芯片和网络设备数据。软件那边，看 Snowflake 能不能证明云数据需求真的转化成了稳定的订阅收入。NVIDIA 已经确认了算力需求还在，但这一轮的主角不是它。 我自己的观察是，市场现在处于一个很微妙的波动阶段。戴尔股价在财报前已经涨了不少，说明预期并不低，一旦数据不够亮眼，回调的弹性也会很大。博通作为网络芯片的核心玩家，它的指引基本决定了 AI 数据中心互联这条线的想象空间能撑多大。 如果戴尔的服务器订单和博通的网络数据都强，那 AI 产业链就从算力到硬件再到网络，完整地串起来了，资金会更有底气待在这个链条里。但如果数据出现分化，市场就会开始重新定价，哪些环节是真受益，哪些只是跟着情绪涨上去$SOL lost 3.57% in 24 hours, but the range of movement was 6.20% — it rose to 104.37 during the day and fell to 98.28 at night. 1100M green flowed into a 21% position within the range. How to interpret such volatility without a driver?
Since then, nothing has changed: funding is -0.0009%, and volume momentum in the last hour is 0.21x. $BTC is down -2%, and SOL is lagging the market by 1.6pp. Two contrasts: large moves and no trend.Bitcoin Super Bull Market Cycle Rate
Risk Warning: The following is only a review of industry logic and does not constitute investment advice.
What is a Super Bull Market?
Ordinary Four-Year Halving Bull Market: lasts 12-18 months, then crashes 75-85% after peaking, completing a full bull and bear reset.
Super Bull Market (Super Cycle):
No longer a complete collapse after a surge, but a long-term upward trend spanning multiple halving cycles; correction ranges narrow (mainly 20-40%, very rarely an 80% bear market); institutions continuously buy on dips; Bitcoin gradually transforms from a speculative asset into a reserve asset allocated by institutions and enterprises.
Two Historical Traditional Bull Markets (Non-Super Cycles)
1. 2017 Retail Bull Market: halving-driven, ICO bubble, retail frenzy, peaked near $20,000, then crashed 85%, a typical ordinary four-year bull market.
2. 2021 Institutional Bull Market: Fed's massive liquidity injection, Grayscale and listed companies entering, peaked at $69,000, followed by a deep bear market, still a standard 4-year cycle.
A true super cycle has not yet occurred; it is a mainstream market projection for the future, not a realized fact.
Five Major Conditions Must Be Met to Trigger a Bitcoin Super Bull Market
1. Supply Side: Halving causes continuous supply contraction
Every 4 years, block rewards halve, reducing new BTC inflow; large amounts of BTC move into cold wallets, exchange reserves continuously decline, circulating supply shrinks.
2. Demand Side: Continuous inflow of compliant institutional funds (most critical)
- Spot ETFs have stable long-term net inflows; pensions and family offices allocate Bitcoin;
- Listed companies include Bitcoin on their balance sheets;
- Some sovereign/local governments allocate Bitcoin as reserve assets.
Different from the past: no longer just retail speculation, but sustained allocation by the traditional financial system.
3. Macro Liquidity Friendly
Fed rate cuts, declining real interest rates; global debt and inflation anxieties drive markets to seek hedges beyond the dollar; the dollar credit narrative matures, providing macro narrative soil for Bitcoin.
4. Clear Regulatory Framework
The US and Europe enact clear crypto laws, eliminating the biggest institutional uncertainties; no longer fearing assets being directly classified as illegal, large funds dare to hold long-term heavy positions.
5. On-Chain Fundamentals: Long-term holders do not loosen their chips
During deep corrections, old coins are not sold off massively; corrections become institutional accumulation windows rather than panic sell-offs; the number of long-term holding addresses on-chain continues to grow.
Core Differences Between Super Bull Market and Ordinary Bull Market
Table
Dimension Ordinary Halving Bull Market Super Bull Market (Projected Scenario)
Duration 12-18 months main rise Over 8 years, spanning 2 halvings
Max Correction 75-85% crash Mostly 20-40% correction, destructive bear markets rare
Dominant Capital Retail, leveraged speculation Mainly institutional and corporate long-term allocation
Peak Signal Mass frenzy, everyone talks about crypto Phase bubbles, deep corrections followed by new highs
Outcome Complete bull-bear zero-sum reset Upward trend, volatility gradually decreases
What Situations Falsify (Prevent) a Super Bull Market
1. US regulatory crackdown intensifies, ETF funds have continuous large net outflows;
2. Fed restarts long-term high interest rates, risk assets collectively devalue;
3. Black swan event occurs, global liquidity crisis, all risk assets crash simultaneously;
4. On-chain long-term holders massively sell, chips rapidly flow back to exchanges.
Realistic Thoughts
Many people call every bull market a super cycle. A super cycle results from multiple structural conditions resonating, not just a price rising several times.
Even without a super cycle, traditional four-year halving bull markets can still produce huge gains; the super cycle is just an idealized projection, not a certainty.Current price is 0.2107, with buy orders continuously appearing in the 0.2050 to 0.2080 range, while sell orders above 0.2180 lack substantial pressure, indicating short-term funds are not rushing to sell but accumulating chips at low levels. On the naked K-line, the previous hourly candle dipped to 0.2032 before pulling back above 0.2100, with the lower shadow nearly twice the length of the body, a typical stop-loss sweep followed by a rebound. Just finished sending an order to the old residential area on the seventh floor, phone still stuck to my chest watching the market, breathing uneven.
If the pullback does not break 0.2060, you can lightly go long in the 0.2065 to 0.2095 range, with a stop loss below 0.2010, as this is the hourly line's starting platform; once broken, it indicates the withdrawal of support funds. Take profit targets are first 0.2240, then 0.2320; the former is the previous high neckline, the latter is the upper edge of the chip vacuum zone. Position size should not exceed 20%, admit mistakes if wrong, and do not hold losing positions.
$ACE
#OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力
@OKX星球 Everyone is doing BTCFi, but STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY are fundamentally different asset types
⚠️ This article is only for outlining track logic and technical architecture, and does not constitute any investment advice
The Bitcoin ecosystem is booming, but many friends tend to confuse STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY. In fact, although these four targets all carry the "BTCFi" label, their underlying positioning, security models, and business logic are completely different. Some are building elevated bridges, some are creating new continents, and others are doing "security business." Today, we will thoroughly clarify these four tracks in 1000 words.
1. Core Positioning: Four Completely Different Species
STX (Stacks): The "veteran" of Bitcoin native L2
Stacks is one of the earliest explorers of Bitcoin Layer 2. It uses a unique PoX consensus and Clarity language, aiming to implement smart contracts without modifying the Bitcoin mainnet.
Core logic: Connect assets through sBTC, allowing users to play DeFi on top of Bitcoin. After the Nakamoto upgrade, it achieved second-level confirmation, but its non-EVM characteristic means it is a relatively closed yet highly native track.
CORE (Core DAO): The "independent L1" with its own power grid
CORE is not a layer two but an independent Layer 1 public chain. It pioneered the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, "borrowing" idle computing power from Bitcoin miners to secure its own chain.
Core logic: Build an EVM-compatible "Bitcoin power grid." It serves not only retail users but also focuses on institutional lstBTC (liquid staking Bitcoin) business, aiming to become the underlying infrastructure for RWA and payments.
MERL (Merlin Chain): The "ZK express lane" for inscription players
MERL is an authentic Bitcoin ZK-Rollup Layer 2 network. It was created to solve congestion and high gas fees for BRC20 and inscription assets on the BTC mainnet.
Core logic: EVM compatible, specifically serving liquidity release for BTC native assets (Ordinals/Runes). Its success heavily depends on the activity of the inscription market.
BABY (Babylon): The "wholesaler" of Bitcoin security
BABY’s concept is the most unique. It is not a chain for running applications but a Bitcoin staking protocol.
Core logic: Allows users to stake BTC directly on the Bitcoin mainnet and "rent out" the security of these BTC to other PoS public chains (such as the Cosmos ecosystem). It is currently the only solution to achieve BTC non-custodial staking.
2. Security Watershed: Who is truly guarding your BTC?
This is the most hardcore metric to distinguish these four projects.
BABY (top tier): BTC always remains in the Bitcoin mainnet’s UTXO, no cross-chain bridges, no wrapped assets (no wrapping), pure cryptographic staking. This is currently the safest trust model in the industry.
CORE (non-custodial): User BTC is locked in Bitcoin mainnet’s CLTV time lock, private keys are not handed over to anyone. The main risk lies in the state synchronization mechanism of relay nodes (Relayers).
STX (consortium-based): Connects assets through sBTC, relying on a decentralized signer alliance. Although there are economic incentives and penalties, there is still a theoretical risk of alliance collusion.
MERL (custodial): User BTC enters MPC multi-signature custodial addresses, mapping out stMBTC. Assets leave the mainnet, trusting the honesty of the MPC custodian, with counterparty risk.
3. Token Value Capture: Who is paying for the tokens?
STX: Burn model. Users consume STX when using the sBTC ecosystem; staking STX can earn BTC rewards (BTC-denominated yield).
CORE: Dual staking necessity. To obtain advanced yields, you must stake CORE; the official plan is to use revenue from institutional businesses like SatPay and lstBTC to buy back tokens.
MERL: Profit buyback. The official commitment is to use 50% of ecosystem profits for MERL buybacks. On-chain gas primarily consumes BTC; MERL is mainly used for node staking and governance.
BABY: Security rent. PoS public chains pay Babylon fees to obtain Bitcoin-level security. Meanwhile, BABY is also the network’s gas and governance token.
5. Summary
STX is the "conservative reformer" on Bitcoin, pursuing nativeness and stability.
CORE is the "radical infrastructure fanatic" in the Bitcoin world, pursuing scale and institutionalization.
MERL is the "traffic operator" of Bitcoin assets, pursuing speed and inscription popularity.
BABY is the "behind-the-scenes arms dealer" of Bitcoin security, pursuing ultimate cryptographic trust.
In this cycle, understanding which layer the asset is on (L1/L2/middleware) and who holds custody (non-custodial/custodial/consortium) is far more meaningful than just watching the K-line.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFi #BTCUSDT UPDATE:
It is currently trading around $77,180 and dumping exactly after breaking down the uptrend channel as per our previous prediction. The possible scenario now is that if the current support breaks, it may soon hit the lower support. After that, we may see a bounce back from there, or in case that support breaks, we may see more dumps. Keep an eye on it and stay tuned with us for further updates.Market Strength Ranking
The market depth is not a prediction, but at least it can clearly show which side is easier to push now.
$USELESS needs only 129,800 to drop 1%, which is less than the 369,700 needed to push up; the support below is relatively thinner. The path below is thin, so once the price breaks, it is likely to accelerate; before breaking, we still need to wait for transaction confirmation.
$ZORA's push up/down costs are 78,100/103,000, and the market depth structure currently leans slightly lighter on the upside. The upper path is lighter; if the price remains stagnant, it indicates that new sell orders or passive selling are being replenished.
$SOL has similar depth on both sides, so the market depth alone does not show a clear direction. The market depth does not provide a one-sided answer; the next active transaction direction will be more valuable for reference.$BTC
Historically, every time this index has moved from red to orange, it has aligned with the start of the bull market and the bottom being in.
The orange phase typically marks a re-accumulation period before the next major rally.
With that in mind, any retrace into the 74–68K region would be a great area to build a swing long targeting new ATHs.
New lows aren't coming. Fade this all you want, but it's never failed. 🎲💰 CryptoQuant: Whales on exchange are actively accumulating UNI – the token may rise to $7.8.
The 30-day average outflow from the exchange for the top 10 largest transactions has grown to a record 7,400 #UNI per day, and accumulation continues to this day (currently around 5,300 UNI daily).Just to give you an idea of what's going on with RH 👀
Currently, 86% of all tokens in the top 500 are listed on RH.
DEX trading volumes are hitting new highs, already at $1.47 billion per day, practically overtaking Solana.$SOL has finally reclaimed the $100 level in this wave.
As of September 1, SOL is fluctuating around $103, having once surged to about $110 on August 27. It rose approximately 46% in August, ending several consecutive months of weakness.
Behind this rebound, both capital and on-chain data have changed.
The US spot SOL ETF has recently seen continuous capital inflows, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding $1.3 billion; on August 27 alone, about $60.91 million flowed in, indicating institutional funds are providing new buying support for SOL.
On-chain performance has not lagged behind.
In Solana's ecosystem data from May this year, stablecoin supply has exceeded $16.4 billion, RWA scale surpassed $2.8 billion, and derivatives trading volume reached $64.6 billion in May.
There is also a recent change that is easy to overlook.
On August 28, Solana validators passed a governance proposal to reduce the future token issuance rate. The current nominal staking yield is about 5.25%. After the inflation rate decreases, the pressure from new SOL supply will gradually ease.
So the key level to watch for SOL now is very clear.
Whether $100 can hold is the dividing line between short-term strength and weakness.
There has already been significant resistance around $110. If it breaks through with increased volume again, the market may continue to test higher levels.
Conversely, if $100 fails to hold, the profit-taking accumulated from this recent rapid rise will likely be concentrated and cautious.#美财长贝森特会谈日方，外汇与加息受关注
Japan rate hike → Yen financing costs rise → Carry trade unwinding → Global liquidity contraction → High-volatility assets like BTC and ETH take the first hit.
Japan's 10-year government bond yield officially surpassed 3%, the first time since 1996. Just a few hours ago, Basent met with Japanese officials to discuss the yen and rate hikes, clearly heating up market expectations for a September rate hike in Japan.
How does this spread to the crypto world? It's actually simple:
Previously, cheap yen was borrowed to buy global assets; now that Japan's 10-year bonds yield 3%, capital will naturally recalculate.
BTC is currently around 78,000. In the short term, watch if 77,000 can hold; below that are 75,000 and 73,000; above, 80,000–81,000 remain resistance.
ETH is near 2,440 now. 2,400 is key; if it holds, there's a chance to retest 2,500 and 2,550; if 2,400 breaks, watch around 2,300 again.
Gold is around $4,400 now. Short-term high rates will suppress valuation, but global debt and monetary credit repricing actually strengthen gold's long-term logic.
So don't underestimate Japan's 3%.
It's not just Japan's own issue; global liquidity pricing is changing. This is what the crypto world really needs to be wary of.
$BTC $ETH $XAU Yesterday, the price of btc once exceeded $79,000, then reversed, surged and fell intraday by nearly $2,600, and finally hovered around $77,000. The signals from the market have already emerged: the funds willing to buy above $79,000 are clearly insufficient, and at the slightest macroeconomic disturbance, short-term positions are loosened first.
External pressure is also on the table. US Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 10-year yield above 4.7%, and market expectations for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September are heating up. If interest rates continue to rise, the risk-free return on dollar assets will be more attractive, and assets with high valuations and volatility will naturally come under pressure. Bitcoin is unlikely to avoid this alone.
There was quick support near $76,500, indicating that spot buying has not withdrawn. The problem is that the buying currently looks more defensive than aggressive. To challenge $79,000 again, contract funds alone are not enough to push the price; macro sentiment needs to stabilize first.
I will focus on the upcoming employment and inflation data. If the data is hot, the market will continue to increase bets on tightening policies; if the data cools down, risk appetite will have room to recover.
Currently, Bitcoin is caught between bulls trying to raise the price and macro factors suppressing risk appetite. This position is the easiest to make people impulsive and the most important to clearly see the funding attitude behind the price $BTC
(This is only a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice)When I first seriously engaged with mainstream and platform coins in 2024, I saw only two things: rising, and rising faster. Back then, $BTC was just over $40,000, spot ETFs had just landed and halving was approaching, and the air was filled with the tone of "this time is different." The logic of platform coins is simpler: as long as exchanges exist, coins should rise. Mainstream coins are like lakes, platform coins like their own docks, and the docks are naturally closer and easier to leverage. But I didn't use a fishing rod, I used explosives—20x and 50x leverage alternated, thinking I was a genius when making money, and thinking I could get back on the next round when I lost. Only after several liquidations did I realize that wasn't trading—it was an early exhaustion of my patience. By 2025, $BTC will have risen all the way to around $126,000. The market will shift from "Will it keep rising?" to "Why hasn't it reached 150,000 yet?" Institutional entries and narrative rotations — everyone can come up with a bull market logic. My biggest gain that year wasn't a single order, but finally seeing one thing: prices can go crazy, but positions can't go crazy. Entering 2026, the market slowly climbed back from around the high after halving, $BTC hovered around $78,000, $OKB rebounded from lows. Thirty days looked acceptable, but after a year, many people lost that drive. The four-year cycle is still repeatedly discussed; some say the bottom, some say it will be slashed further, but I am not in a hurry to take sides. What has truly changed in these two and a half years is not candlestick charts, but three things. First, mainstream coins have shifted from being a get-rich-quick target to becoming a staple. I think $BTC no longer wants to double, but rather whether it still exists, whether institutions will buy, and whether macro liquidity will come firstThe market narrative in September revolves around three main themes: U.S. Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve meeting, and the midterm elections, with oil prices unexpectedly becoming a key variable shaking the entire situation. The escalation of the Iran situation has pushed crude oil back above $90, fueling inflation expectations, which in turn increases pressure for rate hikes, suppressing U.S. stocks and gold once again. The safe-haven logic temporarily yields to tightening concerns.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, market focus is on the nonfarm payrolls and CPI data. If the data softens as expected, it may create a "dip before the release, recovery after" rhythm, supporting risk assets to rebound under the expectation of no rate hike in September. U.S. Treasuries continue the "last drop" scenario, with the 10-year yield possibly reaching 5%, as the lack of fiscal discipline intensifies market worries.
In the short term, before the data release, U.S. stocks, A-shares, gold, and Bitcoin are generally under pressure; if the data weakens, a rebound is expected but a reversal is unlikely. The Nasdaq is watching the 26,000 support level; if broken, it may fall to 25,000. Gold repeatedly tests the 4,400 level; if it falls below again, the 4,300 to 4,400 range is worth patient observation. A-shares failed to break through 4,000, the ChiNext index is constrained by short-term moving averages, and the tech sector needs to wait for overseas sentiment to recover. Bitcoin is actively traded around 78,000, accumulating momentum for a subsequent push to 83,000.
Overall, September should focus on defense, be wary of chain reactions triggered by weak U.S. data, and consider moderate option hedging. Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; the views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.In the last 12 hours, $BTC long positions across the BTC network liquidated $71.277 million, and short positions liquidated $7.666 million.
Last night, bears crushed the bulls, breaking below 77,000 multiple times, with the lowest point even dipping to 76,385.
In the past few days, from holding steady at 80,000 to holding at 78,000, and now barely holding at 77,000, there should still be a bottom rebound today. I changed my take profit to 77,800. The situation has taken a sharp downturn; the previously set take profit at 80,200 looks really bad now 📊 $BCH Liquidation Flash Report (September 1)
1-hour zero liquidation, 4-hour long positions violently took over at 36x leverage, 12-hour leverage halved, 24-hour avalanche down to 2.88x — short squeeze momentum collapsed from nuclear level to basically no direction
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $0 $0 $0
4 hours $68,300 $66,400 $1,846.94
12 hours $112,500 $105,300 $7,184.45
24 hours $205,800 $152,900 $53,000
From BCH liquidation data, 1-hour liquidation is completely zero — longs and shorts reached a strange balance in ultra-short term, volume zero signals extreme market silence; 4-hour longs violently took over at 36x leverage, volume surged to $68,300, short squeeze fully ignited; 12-hour long advantage sharply dropped to 14.7x, volume rose to $112,500, momentum halved; 24-hour long advantage crashed to 2.88x close, long liquidation $152,900 vs short liquidation $53,000, total liquidation $205,800. Long leverage dropped from 36x → 14.7x → 2.88x, showing cliff-like continuous collapse, short squeeze momentum avalanching step by step. 12-hour liquidation accounts for 54.7% of 24-hour total, medium concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, watch more and trade less when direction is unclear.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; Broadcom and Dell earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Friday Debut: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters survey expects an increase of 58,000 jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May-June combined were revised down by 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "clearly and quickly" fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows September rate hike probability surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at July FOMC; cooling inflation and slowing hiring mean rate hikes this year are unlikely. If this week's data weakens again, the 66% hike expectation may quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Under Test Again
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell first reported after market close on September 1 with better-than-expected results: Q2 revenue $46.97 billion, far exceeding the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion, also beating expectations; company sharply raised full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and whether Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "still has work to do" stance — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," $7 billion ETF inflows set record, correlation hits all-time high; Dell has proven AI server demand is still booming with better-than-expected earnings, Broadcom takes over tonight for verification.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. BCH liquidation data provides an extreme sample: 1-hour liquidation zero, 4-hour longs violently took over at 36x, then avalanche down to 2.88x — the dog whales completed directional clearing in ultra-short term then let go, all chasing longs got wiped out. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm outcome. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC Bitcoin Real-Time Market
Current Price: $77,164 (Sina 05:41 $77,186 / ChainCatcher 05:5x $76,930.28 / HL 05:15 Perpetual $77,019.5, deviation <0.3%)
Intraday Range: $76,368.4–$79,171.5 (HL Perpetual 24h; Sina daily K low $76,420 high $79,220.61; yesterday close ~78,500 → today Asian session plunge low 76,368 then rebound 77,164)
Market Cap: ~ $1.549 trillion (20.07M × 77,164), dominance ~58.8%
Volume: 24h spot $30.41B (CMC historical data), total network contracts 24h turnover $151.52B (+91.76%), volume-driven decline, 4h total network liquidation ~$110 million (BTC longs $38.21M)
Sentiment: Fear & Greed 45 Neutral (CFGI 45, down from Sunday’s 68–75 Greed for 4 consecutive days); daily RSI oversold zone (WEEX 15.11); 4H RSI bearish bias, 1H MACD below zero with shrinking green bars but no golden cross
Technical Structure: 78.5K resistance turned support / 77.1–77.5K liquidation referee / 76.0–76.2K secondary support
77,164 is the friction price after last night’s plunge from 79,231 to 76,368 and subsequent rebound; 78.4–78.5K watershed has turned resistance; 77,100–77,500 is today’s first referee (HL 36.8M long cluster), 4H close below 77,100 → with 77,529/77,334 broken, target 75,571→74,788; holding 77,100 means grinding between 77,164–78,500.
Capital & Macro Update (as of 9/2 05:56)
ETF: 9/01 single day +217 million (IBIT +205.9 million), 9/02 single day +333 million (FBTC +133 million, IBIT continued inflow), positive for two consecutive days, institutions buying on dips, diverging from price
Macro: Warsh hawkish → September rate hike probability 64–66% (up from last week’s 57.5%); 10Y yield 4.784%; US-Iran conflict escalation (US airstrike near Hormuz on Iranian targets + Iranian retaliation) → Brent breaks $91, WTI $88, inflation expectations rise pressuring risk assets
On-chain: Last night 76,368 wick cleaned longs; HL 24h long liquidation $10.07M (93.7% longs); whale long average cost 75,686 still floating profit +3.47%, 74,788–75,686 is institutional bottom support zone
Seasonality: "Rektember" September historical average -3%, sentiment bottom not reached
Today (Wednesday Asia-Europe session → US session ADP/Job Openings) Scenario & Thoughts
Baseline: 77,100–78,500 friction, hold 77,100 to grind 77,164–77,900; rebound 78,400–78,500 if not broken, expect pullback
Rebound follow-up: 1H close above 78,500 target 79,300→80,000; fail to reclaim 78.5K means reduce positions on all rebounds (daily RSI oversold rebound but trend bearish)
Pullback follow-up: 4H close below 77,100 → triggers 77,529/77,334 liquidation → target 75,571→74,788; daily close below 71,000 turns bearish
Spot/Mid-term: 74,788–75,686 (whale cost zone) hold for staggered dips ≤5% per trade; daily close below 71K pause and wait for 68K
Contracts: 77,900–78,500 stagnation with light shorts (stop loss 78,650, target 77,100) ≤2x; below 77,100 no chasing shorts (oversold + liquidation released), wait for 74,788–75,571 stabilization for light longs (stop loss 74,500, target 77,100)
Key Observation Windows
77,100–77,500 4H hold or not (today’s first referee, HL 36.8M long cluster)
78,400–78,500 1H reclaim or not (fail to reclaim → watershed turns resistance confirmation)
75,571 / 74,788 long magnet trigger or not (4H break 77.1K target)
71,000 weekly EMA200 daily close hold or not (bull-bear boundary)
ETF 9/02 +333 million continue three-day positive inflow (decides if 75K is bottom)
Tonight 22:00 JOLTS + Thursday ADP + Friday Nonfarm rate hike 64% priced in; US-Iran conflict escalation risk (Brent break 95?)
10Y 4.784% and DXY 99.6 continue to pressure valuations
⚠️ Objective market summary, not investment advice. Sina 77186 / ChainCatcher 76930 / HL 77019 cross-verified in same frame, reflects real market after plunge; daily RSI oversold (15.11) but 77,100 liquidation cluster not fully cleared, 4H close below 77,100 is true break, stop loss relaxed 50–60% more than usual.
Quick Summary: BTC 77,164–77.5K liquidation cluster = today’s referee (77529/17M + 77334/13.3M), break targets 75571→74788; 78.4–78.5K resistance turned support; 71K weekly EMA200 bull-bear boundary; ETF 9/02 +333 million buying on dips; rate hike 64% + US-Iran conflict driven. $BTC Whale Buy-In: Looks Fierce, But Actually Bleeding at the Edge
These “smart money” players have indeed been aggressively buying lately. Data shows addresses holding 100-1000 $BTC have swept up 73,300 BTC in the past 60 days, seeming like they want to buy the market dry. But don’t get too excited—look at that “whale,” going all-in on $BTC with 40x leverage, average entry price at $78,855, liquidation price just 1.41% away, and the account balance wiped out.
US-Iran Conflict: Appears as a Safe Haven, But Actually Playing with Fire
When the US and Iran clash, oil prices shoot above $85. The market isn’t panicking over the war itself, but fears inflation will prevent the Fed from hiking rates. Now the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 60%, which is a nuclear bomb for risk assets. BTC is holding up relatively well around $77,000-$78,000, supported by the “digital gold” narrative.
$BTC: Whales are buying, war is scaring, currently barely hanging on near $78,000. Its resilience depends entirely on big players buying to hedge against macro headwinds, but if rate hikes actually land, it will still fall.
$ETH: With BTC leading the charge, ETH’s legs gave out, dropping below $2,450. Institutions see it as a high-beta altcoin; it falls first in a crisis, and no whales come to its rescue. Liquidity is terrible. A mysterious whale dumped over 70,000 $ETH (worth $174 million) on exchanges in the past two days, and still holds over 90,000 $ETH ready to sell. Big players are running; do you really expect retail investors to catch the falling knife? Think again.Continuously adding positions during these kinds of pullbacks better reflects the capital's attitude than chasing at highs 💸 BitMine keeps buying more as prices drop, effectively supporting the spot market. The chips sold off in the short term are slowly absorbed by big players, making supply pressure naturally easier to digest.
Next, watch if ETFs have synchronized inflows and whether ETH can quickly recover after a pullback. Corporate treasuries keep buying, and prices haven't been crushed deeply yet. This kind of market grinding tends to build up the powder keg for the next acceleration round. ⚡️$ETH $BTC $SOL This trend doesn't even require me to think; the account is dancing on its own. When the market was just smashed in the morning session, $TRIA rebounded on low volume to 0.008155, but the volume didn't keep up and the selling pressure was strong. This rise is clearly a paper tiger. I directly suggest: open short positions, follow the rhythm of the shorts, don't hesitate.
Just now, looking again at 0.003980, +1024.15%, nailed it. 😏 This market is really friendly to bears; every rebound feels like giving away money. The wait was not in vain, patience is worth it. The previous bottom grinding made people want to run, but looking back, it was all correct. The market is waited out, profits are held out.
Manage your position well, take 80% off first, move the remaining 20% to cost price for protection. If it drops again, let the profits roll; don't give back profits on the rebound. Being out of position is not a sin; reckless opening of positions is the mistake. Take profits when you should, because realized profits are truly yours.
Rushing in now is not courage, it's giving money to the market. Don't envy this wave; wait for the next cycle structure to appear, patiently await good news. 🔔 The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. It's never too late to act after the new structure is confirmed.
$BTC $SOL Besenet loosens credit, meets with Japanese side, Robinhood on-chain crypto-stock linkage explodes—three things are shaping the market landscape.
👇👇👇
Besenet is pushing to relax the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) for banks, freeing up bank balance sheet space, effectively injecting liquidity into the market. $BTC is the direct beneficiary, with support around 78,000. If long-term interest rates are held down, the valuation anchor for risk assets will loosen. Meanwhile, talks with the Japanese side bring subtle changes in forex and interest rate expectations. High-beta assets like $ETH continue to be under pressure, with 2,400 becoming a critical point #贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解
Robinhood Chain on-chain trading surges, the "crypto-stock pairing" mechanism allows Meme coins to pool directly with tokenized US stocks, enabling Meme funds to push prices unilaterally during US stock market closures on weekends. AI (Artificial Inu) leads this track, paired with tokenized Nvidia, rising nearly 10 times in a week. The trading volume of stock tokens brought by crypto-stock paired Meme accounts for about 34% of total RWA trading #Robinhood链上交易激增，币股Meme成主角
Loosening credit supports $BTC, new gameplay injects narrative into AI, forex and interest rates pressuring ETH. The direction is not fully clear yet, but the signals are already on the way.👊#美财长贝森特会谈日方，外汇与加息受关注 First, let me talk about a phenomenon I observed.
In this cycle, many people didn't lose money in the crash itself, but lost it in the illusion of "thinking it could still go up."
Let's start with $BTC
Its role now is completely different from three years ago.
Three years ago, we debated whether "digital gold" was a false proposition.
Now institutions vote with their positions—not speculative positions, but allocation positions. So for my BTC position, I don't look at daily or weekly charts, I only look at one thing: whether the real US dollar interest rate is trending positive.
As long as this anchor doesn't change, the base position stays put.
Now about $ETH
Many people have lost patience with ETH, complaining it rises too slowly, gas fees are low, and L2 is fragmented.
But I am actually more willing to hold at this stage.
Why?
Because on-chain real settlement volume doesn't lie.
If you check the data, the daily average stablecoin transfer volume on the ETH mainnet plus mainstream L2s
is still several times the sum of all other public chains. This is not memory, this is the ledger.
So my position structure is very simple now:
In a bull market, everyone competes on who predicts correctly.
In a bear market, it's who loses the least.
But across cycles, it's always those who see far and can control their hands.
This market never lacks opportunities.
What it lacks is having chips when opportunities come.
What truly keeps you alive
is not how many times you guessed the direction right,
but that every time you guessed wrong, you could still stay at the table.
$BTC and $ETH are that table.
Everything else is just chips on the table.
#BTC high-level consolidation, stronger linkage with gold
#ETH ecosystem value returns, slow is fast📊 $SOL Liquidation Flash Report (September 1)
Bulls dominated all day, violently ramping from 6x to 13x leverage before weakening to 10x — the short squeeze momentum peaked explosively in 4 hours then gradually declined, but bulls still firmly controlled the market.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $244,900 $210,100 $34,800
4 hours $14,613,000 $13,565,400 $1,047,600
12 hours $19,481,900 $17,951,200 $1,530,700
24 hours $22,595,500 $20,548,500 $2,047,000
From SOL liquidation data, bulls controlled the market with a 6x advantage in 1 hour, volume breaking $240K, starting a mild short squeeze; at 4 hours, bull advantage surged to 13x, volume exploded to $14.61M, triggering a nuclear-level short squeeze; at 12 hours, bull advantage narrowed to 11.7x, volume rose to $19.48M, momentum marginally declined from peak; at 24 hours, bull advantage further dropped to 10x close, with long liquidations at $20.55M versus shorts at $2.05M, total liquidations exceeding $22.6M. Bull leverage followed a reverse V pattern: 6x → 13x → 11.7x → 10x, showing a secondary peak in short squeeze momentum with marginal weakening but still strong. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 86.2% of the 24-hour total, indicating high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; direction is clear but momentum has retreated from peak, avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish stance is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply correlate under "fiat credit revaluation"; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists forecast about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly shrank by 23,000, with May and June revised down by a total of 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "clearly and quickly" fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a July FOMC hike; cooling inflation and slowing hiring make a rate hike this year unlikely. If data weakens again this week, the 66% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High-Level Volatility: Gold Correlation Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin gained 28% in August, briefly surpassing $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF drew nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell led by releasing better-than-expected Q2 earnings after market close on September 1: $46.97 billion revenue, well above the $44.92 billion forecast; AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion, also exceeding expectations; company sharply raised full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect $29.43 billion revenue, up 84.5% YoY; EPS $2.55, up 199.5% YoY. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and if Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkishness — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold deeply correlate under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and correlation hitting a record high; Dell has proven AI server demand is still booming with better-than-expected earnings, and Broadcom will follow tonight for verification.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The latest capital trajectory of US spot ETFs is more worth reading than mere risk aversion: capital has not left but is repositioning among assets. From August 24 to 28, BTC attracted about $924 million, ETH gained $824 million, and SOL and XRP inflowed $154 million and $110 million respectively. The real turning point came on August 28 — BTC had a single-day net outflow of about $202 million, while ETH bucked the trend with $102 million in flow, and SOL and XRP remained positive, recording $18 million and $26 million respectively. If funds are truly systematically withdrawing, we should see a full outflow, not this selective divergence. This is more like portfolio rebalancing rather than a complete farewell to the market. The next few trading days will provide clearer answers. For BTC, whether ETF outflows can slow and stabilize is key to measuring market sentiment; If ETH can continue to attract institutional funds and strengthen against BTC, the rotation logic will be strongly supported. SOL needs to confirm whether inflows can translate into price resilience. If XRP's weekly ETF inflows reach a 2026 high, the warming of institutional demand will be even more worth watching. Additionally, HYPE's performance relative to mainstream coins can provide additional clues for the concentration of risk appetite. However, the flow of funds only indicates where capital has gone and does not indicate when prices will follow. Risk warning: Market volatility is uncertain. ETF data is only one observation dimension; please make cautious judgments based on your own situation $BTC $ETH $SO#EarningsObserver | Broadcom & Dell Take Over, AI Returns Face Further Testing
After NVIDIA, Broadcom and Dell have become the new "report cards" for the AI industry chain.
The market focus is not just on revenue alone, but on whether the performance can meet high expectations.
If AI demand exceeds expectations, risk appetite for tech stocks may increase and transmit to BTC and ETH; if below expectations, it may undermine the AI narrative and risk assets.
But beware of "good news turning bad": AI overheating could strengthen economic resilience, causing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates longer, which would suppress risk assets.
Key focus: earnings guidance, US tech sector, US Treasury yields.
Spot traders can control position sizes; contract traders should watch leverage and not treat earnings reports as one-way buy signals.
#Broadcom #Dell #AI #BTC #ETH$ZKP This wave is purely due to good market sentiment, casually throwing some gold coins, and they just happened to hit my head.
Actually, during the intraday plunge, I noticed an unusually dense sell-off of ZKP, and every rebound was suppressed. With such weak support on the chart, shorting was just a natural move. After finishing lunch and checking the market, I immediately took a bearish stance.
Now the short position at 0.04374 has already reached 0.04374, with a position gain of +466.15%. The timing was spot on, and those on board should be waking up smiling.
First, close 70%, then protect the cost price with the remaining 30%, letting the profit run on its own.
Even if you only make one point, as long as you can take it away, it’s yours; any floating profit beyond that belongs to the market.
Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak; rushing in now is like catching a flying knife. Wait for the next signal before moving.
$ZEC $SNDK In the first half of the last week of August, institutional funds continued to pile into $BTC, while $ETH, $SOL, and XRP took a share of the liquidity. On August 28, they suddenly hit the brakes:
$202 million was directly withdrawn from BTC's pool, but this money did not leave the crypto market; it immediately flowed into the pools of ETH, SOL, and XRP. ETH countered the trend that day by receiving $102 million, and the other two smaller coins each attracted tens of millions in new funds.
This is not a collective institutional bearish move to dump BTC; rather, at this current high-volatility stage, they are proactively reallocating chips concentrated in BTC to other major assets with higher elasticity. Essentially, this is a subtle shift in risk preference, not a full retreat.
Going forward, there is no need to guess the market direction blindly. Watching a few key signals will reveal the rhythm: when BTC's ETF fund flow turns from net outflow back to halting decline and sideways movement, it is a clear sign that overall market sentiment is stabilizing; whether ETH can continuously absorb funds shifted from BTC and whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate can keep strengthening directly determines the ceiling of this mainstream coin rotation rally; whether SOL's new funds can push the price to new highs and whether XRP's weekly ETF inflow, hitting a 2026 high, can continue are core indicators to judge if funds will spread to mid- and small-cap mainstream coins; as for HYPE's trend, don't look at its rise or fall alone—compare its relative strength with BTC and ETH to see if it is genuinely strong or just a false rally riding the market rebound.
It is still far from the point to blindly all in: the employment data released this week could rewrite Fed rate hike expectations at any time, Walsh's hawkish stance has not softened, BTC's correlation with gold is growing stronger, and volatility in traditional financial markets could transmit to crypto markets at any moment, adding uncertainty to the crypto trend.
The market is quite volatile, and ETF fund flows do not guarantee price movements. Please manage your positions rationally.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $DELL BofA says Dell will exceed expectations, COO says supply can't keep up, who to believe?
AI server revenue is expected to be $15.6 billion, with backlog orders at $60.6 billion, up from $51.3 billion last quarter. Demand is not an issue, that's the consensus.
But the COO personally said CPU supply is intermittent, and hard drives are also in short supply. If goods can't be delivered, even huge orders are just paper wealth.
BofA raised the target price from 500 to 505, only a 5-dollar increase, which seems a bit perfunctory. Would a real beat only add 5 dollars?
The supply chain is stuck at the production end; no matter how strong demand is, it can't turn into revenue. For Dell's earnings report, the actual delivery volume of AI servers is more worth watching than the order numbers.
Short-term sentiment is driven by the BofA report, but mid-term depends on when the supply bottleneck eases. If the COO continues to emphasize shortages on the earnings call, the price gains won't hold. The ongoing US-Iran conflict: Iran retaliates with attacks, US forces respond, Middle East tensions escalate. Has this round of decline in the crypto market been affected by the Middle East situation?
Specifically, this decline results from a combination of geopolitical conflict and macro factors:
· Escalation of conflict: On August 31, US forces airstruck Iran's Larak Island, followed by Iran's missile retaliation.
· Oil price surge: Market fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude above $90 per barrel, even nearing $96 at one point.
· Rising inflation and rate hike expectations: Higher oil prices increased inflation expectations, with the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in September rising to about 57%.
· Strengthening US dollar and Treasury yields: Rate hike expectations boosted the dollar and pushed 10-year US Treasury yields higher.
· Pressure on risk assets (Risk-Off): Funds withdrew from high-risk assets into safe havens. $BTC Bitcoin fell below $77,000, $ETH Ethereum dropped below $2,400, and total crypto market cap declined.
Behind this is a clear transmission chain: US-Iran conflict → Strait of Hormuz risk → oil price rise → inflation expectations increase → rate hike expectations strengthen → US dollar/Treasury yields rise → pressure and decline on risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). This analytical framework is also supported by international organizations like the IMF.
Notably, before the conflict broke out, market expectations for rate hikes were already rising. The geopolitical conflict emerged at this time, creating a resonance of dual pressures from macro and geopolitical factors.
Therefore, this crypto market decline is the result of geopolitical events transmitted through macroeconomic channels. Cryptocurrencies behaved more like assets sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite rather than safe-haven tools during this process. The duration of the conflict and oil price trends will be key variables going forward.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 BTC has fallen back from the high of 79185, what is the short-term outlook?
Bitcoin started to decline from the recent high of 79185, with the market continuing to weaken. The price is currently oscillating around 77120.
On the 15-minute chart, it is clear that the highs are continuously moving lower, with short-term moving averages exerting obvious pressure. Overall, it is in a recovery phase after the decline. The previous low of 76385 is a very critical support level at the moment. If this level can hold, there is a chance for a technical rebound; if the volume breaks below this low, the downside space will further open up.
The first resistance zone above is concentrated between 77500 and 77800. When the price rebounds to this area, selling pressure will significantly increase. Currently, indicators have not entered extreme zones, and no clear reversal signals have appeared. The market has not yet broken out of the one-sided trend.
At this stage, it is not suitable to blindly chase trades. Aggressive traders can consider short positions after the rebound meets resistance; for those looking to go long, do not rush to bottom-fish at the current price. Prioritize waiting for support confirmation and stabilization before evaluating entry opportunities. Maintain patience with the overall direction and wait for your target price window for medium- to long-term positioning. ARB has surged from around $0.08 to above $0.11, with the market attributing this to a catch-up rally in L2. However, within the price action, there is capital trading Arbitrum anticipating external business inflows.
Robinhood Chain's recent fee spike allows the Arbitrum ecosystem to earn a share of revenue according to the protocol. This differs from valuations supported solely by airdrop expectations, TVL rankings, or project narratives. The market is pricing a premium, watching both on-chain snapshots of increases and decreases, and whether the Orbit tech stack can be continuously adopted by major platforms and convert usage into verifiable cash flow.
I'm not too excited about this big bullish candle. With a nearly 30% increase in 24 hours, contract volume and open interest have surged simultaneously, indicating short-term funds have already rushed in. After the price hits around $0.12, the chasing buyers face profit-taking chips and the unlocking pressure of about 139 million ARB tokens in late September.
ARB's past problem was the wide gap between technology, application, and token value. Robinhood Chain provides a rare validation sample, but one sample is not enough to rewrite the valuation framework.
I will be watching three things: whether the fee peak can be maintained, whether revenue sharing continues flowing into the DAO, and whether more Orbit chains replicate this business model. Only if all three materialize does ARB qualify to break free from a purely sentiment-driven rebound. If the hype quickly fades, this rally is most likely just a sharp spike and short squeeze in low liquidity $ARB.
(This is only a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice.)$CORE further sharp decline is coming with no momentum after this breakout; we may visit 0.01 before September 3 and 0.001 after deposits and withdrawals open on September 3 due to the sale of the full 315 million coins by the hackers, which means a total collapse of the project, similar to what happened with the Harmony coin. Inflation becomes inevitable after liquidity is withdrawn and the price drops to the 0.001 range following everyone fleeing the project.US-Iran conflicts continue; the relationship between Middle East situation and this round of crypto market decline
Middle East conflicts are not the fundamental cause of the decline but act as an indirect amplifier; the real core driver is the rising expectation of Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Middle East situation amplifies macro bearish pressure by pushing up oil prices.
1. Transmission path (very critical)
US-Iran mutual strikes → Increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz → Rising crude oil prices → Market worries about energy-driven US inflation → Further increase in the probability of a September Fed rate hike and rising US Treasury yields → BTC, ETH and other interest-free high-beta assets are sold off.
2. Distinguish: primary cause vs catalyst
✅ Fundamental cause
Jackson Hole hawkish statements from Fed officials continue, the market is already pricing in a September rate hike. BTC repeatedly failed to break 80,000, with heavy resistance above and exhausted bullish momentum, so a correction demand exists.
✅ Role of Middle East situation (catalyst, amplifier)
1. Conflict escalation causes oil prices to surge, reinforcing market concerns about "sticky inflation," pushing up the September rate hike probability, accelerating US Treasury yields rise, and increasing selling pressure on risk assets.
2. News shocks combined with thin overnight liquidity amplify contract leverage liquidations. As seen in your screenshot of the candlestick chart: rapid spike down at midnight triggered many long stop-losses, further amplifying the decline.
3. Market reality confirmation (refer to your BTC, ETH 15-minute candlestick screenshots)
1. BTC is relatively resilient, ETH suffers more: BTC has ETF spot support; ETH is high-beta and more impacted by macro liquidity shocks, matching this market behavior.
2. Gold also plunged sharply: gold accelerated its decline the same day, indicating that rate-driven bearish pressure outweighed geopolitical safe-haven buying, with major asset classes collectively repricing, not just crypto alone bearish.
3. On-chain data shows no large whale deposits to exchanges for selling; the decline mainly comes from quantitative portfolio adjustments plus cascading contract liquidations; spot long-term funds have not collectively fled.
4. Two possible follow-up scenarios
1. If Middle East tensions further escalate and oil prices keep rising: inflation concerns persist, rate hike expectations remain high, BTC and ETH will continue to be under pressure, repeatedly testing lower supports.
2. If conflict eases temporarily and oil prices fall: this can only slightly relieve pressure, not trigger a big rebound; the real turning point depends on US nonfarm payroll data. Only a significant weakening in nonfarm payrolls can substantially lower rate hike expectations and provide a foundation for market recovery.
5. Summary
1. Middle East tensions amplified this round of decline but are not the root cause; the root cause is Fed hawkishness and rising rate hike expectations. The Middle East indirectly hurts crypto by pushing oil prices and inflation expectations.
2. At this stage, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset; during geopolitical crises, do not expect it to act as a safe haven in the short term.
3. Key levels to watch: BTC low at 76385, ETH low at 2382; distinguish between momentary spikes and effective candlestick body breaks.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC September, October, and November may once again be disappointing months for BTC.
In fact, there is reasonable basis for expecting a strong rebound for BTC before the end of the year: Trump's election process and the passage of the CLARITY Act are important catalysts.
However, my expectations for the remainder of 2026 are different.
I anticipate that before the election, the Epstein files will once again become a focus, with Trump's market manipulation allegations and possible legal sanctions being discussed again.
On the Federal Reserve side, I also believe a cautious and hawkish stance will continue.
Additionally, I think the CLARITY Act may be delayed later than expected, possibly until 2027.
Therefore, I do not expect BTC to create new all-time highs through a significant rebound before the election. $ETH $DOGE $SOL SOL 99.46, dropped below 100.
It was still at 104 yesterday, today it directly crashed to 98.28. RSI6=18.84, even when BTC dropped to 49000 in early August, it wasn't this low. But unlike BTC that time, SOL this time has clear fundamental support — OpenSea resumed support for Solana NFT trading after four years, Anza activated the SIMD-0391 upgrade on the mainnet, the SGP-0002 dual deflation proposal passed with 67% support, the annual inflation decay rate increased from 15% to 30%, reducing the new supply of SOL by about 18.9 million over the next 6 years.
Good news is piling up, but the price is falling. Solana's total revenue dropped 87.1% year-over-year, from 1.09 billion to 141 million. Meme coin fees have collapsed, RWA and DeFi haven't fully connected yet. Deflation is real, revenue plummeting is real too. Good news is piling up, price is falling, indicating the market is still watching — is this just the pain after the Meme tide recedes, or is there really a fundamental problem?
At the 100 mark, bottom-fishers are waiting for a rebound, holders are waiting to break even. Whoever makes the first move loses. Comment below, at this point are you bottom-fishing or waiting? 🫡Waller's speech has pushed rate hike expectations close to 60%, and $BTC and $ETH have responded honestly—weak rebounds and continuous selling pressure.
This week, employment data is being released intensively, with JOLTS, ADP, and nonfarm payrolls taking turns. Each set of data forces the market to reprice the probability of a rate hike.
BTC and ETH are now stuck at a critical level, neither rising nor falling, and large funds will not actively bet on a direction before the data is released.
I'm waiting for Friday's nonfarm payrolls, the only variable that can break the deadlock. No action will be taken before the data comes out.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $SNDK SanDisk 1534, yesterday it was still at 1609, today it dropped to 1511.
Overnight, the US stock market performed well, the S&P 500 hit a new high, and the storage sector collectively rebounded. SanDisk rose 5.5% yesterday. The MSCI Global Index officially included SanDisk, and in the last 45 minutes of trading, it surged over 100 dollars. But David Tepper liquidated all his SanDisk holdings, and Moore Capital cut 98.5% of its position. Institutions are exiting, retail investors are buying in; who is right or wrong is unknown, but the directions are definitely different.
SAR=1473 is below, EMA21=1522 and EMA55=1520 have both been broken. RSI6 fell from 63 yesterday to 49.6, the candlestick barely closed at 1534, but continued weakening after hours. On-chain open interest dropped from 196 million to 157 million, a 47.2% decrease in positions—funds are indeed withdrawing. Institutional liquidation, OI plummeting, technical breakdown, three overlapping signals, short-term outlook is not optimistic. It has fallen from 1827 to 1534, a 16% drop. If 1500 does not hold, the next support is near 1473.
Comment below, do you think the drop has bottomed out, or do you think it hasn't fully fallen yet? 🫡$BTC BTC 77120, yesterday it was still at 79000, today it dropped to 76385.
Glassnode says the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is near its lowest in almost two years. They have decoupled, but the direction is downward — US stocks are rising, BTC is falling. Decoupling is a good thing, but the real question is which direction it will go after decoupling.
Trump confirmed a new round of airstrikes against Iran by the US, and BTC directly fell below 77000. On Polymarket, the probability of "BTC breaking 78000 on September 2" plummeted from 36.5% to 16.5% within an hour. Liquidations in 24 hours reached 239 million, with BTC longs accounting for 85.95 million.
SAR=79039 is pressing down, EMA21=78129, EMA55=77366, all overhead. RSI6=21.68 — the last time BTC was at this level was early August, after which it rebounded nearly 4000 dollars. But this time is different; geopolitical conflicts have changed the denominator. Bulls are trying to bottom-fish around 76385, while sellers are waiting for a rebound to offload. Before the direction emerges, entering is a gamble.
Comment below, at this position are you bottom-fishing or waiting? 🫡📊 $XRP Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Long positions have been crushed from 16x down to 6.75x, with short squeeze momentum continuously fading. At the close, short liquidations began to increase — the direction is still in the hands of the bulls, but their strength is weakening.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $154,700 $122,100 $32,600
4 hours $3,155,300 $2,971,600 $183,700
12 hours $4,700,000 $4,291,300 $408,700
24 hours $6,881,800 $5,993,900 $887,800
From the XRP liquidation data, the 1-hour long positions control the market with a 3.75x advantage, volume breaking $150K, indicating a mild start to the short squeeze; the 4-hour long advantage surged to 16.2x, volume exploded to $3.15M, triggering a full short squeeze; the 12-hour long advantage narrowed to 10.5x, volume rose to $4.7M, momentum clearly slowing; the 24-hour long advantage dropped to 6.75x at close, with long liquidations at $5.99M versus shorts at $887.8K, total liquidations surpassing $6.88M. The long leverage ratio moved from 3.75x → 16.2x → 10.5x → 6.75x, showing an inverted V-shaped trajectory, with short squeeze momentum peaking then fading. The 12-hour liquidations account for 68.3% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to below 3x; direction is clear but momentum is fading, avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May-June combined revisions cut 103,000 jobs.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "fall clearly and fast enough" to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at the July FOMC, and cooling inflation and slowing hiring make a hike this year unlikely. If this week's data weakens again, the 66% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High-Level Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin gained 28% in August, briefly surpassing $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Under Further Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell led with an earnings beat after market close on September 1: Q2 revenue $46.97 billion, well above the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion, also exceeding expectations; the company significantly raised its full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and whether Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkish stance — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and correlation hitting a record high; Dell has proven AI server demand is still booming with an earnings beat, and Broadcom will take over the test tonight.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The world has been quite unstable recently. The conflict between the US and Iran has flared up again, and this time significant actions are very likely. Why? Because the midterm elections are approaching, and if Trump cannot resolve the Iran issue, winning the midterms will be out of the question. Therefore, Trump, being cornered, will most likely take some rather drastic measures. At times like this, the market could crash at any moment. —————————————————— When the market turns bearish, who will suffer the worst losses? The answer is obvious: it will definitely be $ETH. "Short Ethereum first when in trouble" is a saying that has circulated in the crypto community for a very long time. Personally, I believe this time is no exception. If an unexpected event occurs, $ETH should be one of the core assets to be sold off. It could fall very, very hard. So, at times like this, it’s wise to open some short positions, and those holding long positions should consider setting stop losses. Staying steady in times like these is a victory. —————————————————— The above is my speculation, based on Trump’s personality. The market’s reaction is not like this. Currently, the market is bottom-fishing Ethereum while also shorting international oil prices. But I think, at times like this, you can’t just follow the market trend. Because at times like this, analyzing Trump’s personality is more important than analyzing market trends. Right now, the US-Iran conflict is the market’s core issue, and the key to that conflict is Trump. Analyzing Trump is more important than analyzing market data. And I believe this time Trump can$BONK BONK This candlestick is quite interesting; the trading volume hasn't kept up, yet the price is slowly declining—a typical purely technical movement without fundamental support. Simply put, the market funds are shifting around, and the signs of a washout by the dog whale are even more obvious than large on-chain transfers. Follow the direction of the smart money and don't rush to catch the falling knife.
Those holding positions should pay attention to position management, and those without positions shouldn't feel like they're missing out. Surviving at times like this is more important than anything.
Which level are you all watching for a reversal signal? 👇👇👇Yesterday's trend met expectations, first with high-level oscillations, with Kong and Duo cutting 880 points and 560 points respectively. After the oscillation, the weakness continued, with two Dan Kong cutting 1300 points and 1200 points respectively. A short 600 points was cut at the low point in the early morning, and one Dan was already cut during the day. For those chasing Duo, it means completely ignoring the trend structure; the obvious posture is a downward shift in the high point, so chasing Duo at a high level can only be said to like chasing rises and killing falls. This is not suitable for oscillating range structures, but suitable for one-sided trends, but it has long been said here that there is no short-term one-sided trend, so what is the difference from giving away.
From the market perspective, after the fifth surge and fall last week, the weekend oscillated and consolidated to recover some of the losses, followed by box oscillations, but the high points have been moving downward, and the low points have also moved downward. The trend structure is weak, and the parallel bottom below has been broken. The Kong head has continuity and will retest the previous low point around 755. Once broken, there is still room to go down, with a depth estimated between 750 and 730. So the continued high Kong remains unchanged, and wait to Duo near the support level based on strength.
In the early morning, Kong near 772 to 775, first look at around 760 to 756. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验