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$BTC has been hovering around 78,000 since entering September.
The US spot BTC ETF, after experiencing a day of net outflow,
has recently turned back to a net inflow of $216.7 million.
Among them, BlackRock's IBIT alone attracted about $205.9 million.
But I think what really needs attention today is no longer the ETF.
Oil prices have surged back above $90.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.78%.
Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have also clearly heated up.
BTC's low has already tested around 77,450.
So now, chasing BTC long positions can't be too aggressive.
BTC rose 24% in August.
Currently, during the high-level sideways movement, the open interest in perpetual contracts
has actually dropped to the lowest level since May, indicating that leverage hasn't been wildly accumulated.
If the support at 77,000 below is lost next,
the next pullback will be around 75,000.Gold fell 2.4% this morning, but BTC managed to hold near 77,400, indicating that this round of pressure may not be just a problem for the crypto community itself. $BTC Currently quoted at around 77,400, down 1.8% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 76,420; $ETH around 2,420, down 2.2%, hitting a low of 2,383. Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bond yield climbed above 3% for the first time in 30 years, and the yen approached 160 again. Yields continue to rise→ increasing the appeal of Japanese bonds→ capital flows back to Japan→ may tighten carry trades. If the yen strengthens rapidly, high-leverage positions may be forced to reduce positions. After tonight's ADP employment data release, short-term volatility in US Treasury yields and BTC may further amplify. Trading plan: $BTC Within 15 minutes, break above 77,650, pullback to 77,500 for stabilization, consider 78,100 or 78,600; if it falls below 77,350, the price will expire. If further below 77,150 and the rebound fails to recover, short, look at 76,420 or 75,800, then rebound to 77,400 and fail. $ETH Within 15 minutes, break below 2408; if rebound to 2418 fails, go short, look for 2383 and 2350; if it returns to 2,428, it will fail. Focus on sharp yen rallies and insertion rallies around ADP release. If conditions haven't appeared, better to wait and see rather than place bets early. For market analysis only, not investment advice. #BTC高位震荡与黄金联动增强 Here's something counterintuitive: BTC and gold are both falling at the same time. Many think it's a coincidence, but actually, this signals liquidity contraction. BTC current price is 77171, down 1.43% in 24h, high 79185 low 76385; gold at 4310, down 3.15%. Both falling together indicates it's not a product issue, but money flowing out. BTC support and resistance triple crossover: the 77000 round number is right below, support down to 76500, 76385 previous low; rebound resistance at 77225, 77500, 77611, 78000. Gold support and resistance: support at 4293 previous low, 4300 round number; resistance at 4395, 4430. About my 5 positions, all long: BTC long 50x opened at 77497 now 77171, leverage floating loss about 21%; gold long 10x opened at 4456 now 4310, floating loss about 33%; silver long 30x opened at 66.13 now 63.93, floating loss about 99%, already on the edge of forced liquidation; BCH long 5x opened at 247.3 now 245.7, floating loss about 3%. Knowledge point: when two unrelated products fall together, don't rush to add positions, first reduce leverage. My 5000U opening discipline remains unchanged, I must admit mistake and handle the silver position. Never hold a position without stop loss, currently recovering from a 200,000U loss, staying alive is most important. $BTC #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC and $XAU both fell; how solid is their close correlation? What will the next trend look like? Is gold stronger or is digital gold stronger?
Recently, these two "safe-haven assets" have both pulled back, which is quite interesting. BTC is currently around $77,000, while gold has dropped to about $4,300/ounce. Yesterday, US stocks, gold, and BTC all weakened simultaneously, showing a clear cooling in market risk appetite.
But don’t rush to think BTC and gold are already tied together. Although both are often called "safe-haven assets," their driving logics are actually different. Gold is more influenced by the US dollar, real interest rates, and central bank gold purchases; BTC depends more on liquidity, investor sentiment, and institutional funds.
The biggest variable now is still the Federal Reserve. The latest market expectations show the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 67%, the US dollar index stands near 99, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.8%, which is not good news for either gold or BTC.
Technically, BTC’s short-term support is seen between $75,000 and $77,000. Until it retakes $80,000, I won’t be too aggressively bullish.
Gold has already been pulling back continuously; the short-term focus is whether it can stabilize around $4,300. If the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise, gold’s pressure may not be over yet.
So if I have to choose between the two now, I lean more toward gold in the short term and BTC in the long term.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 I really don't understand some haters who jump to conclusions without even reading the news.
Yesterday, Bitcoin's drop and pullback were directly triggered by the escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts. The headline "US and Iran exchange fire twice in three days" is a public news report title, a citation of public information, not original text.
Geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices, the market renewed inflation concerns, US Treasury yields rose, and coupled with a chain of long contract liquidations, multiple factors resonated to cause yesterday's decline. The non-farm payroll data is coming soon; macro factors remain the biggest variable in the market.$BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has risen to a historic high, and the 30-day correlation coefficient has also reached this year's peak of 0.8.
This suggests that the recent drivers behind the rise in both gold and BTC may be the same macro trade: investors are worried about declining currency purchasing power and expanding government debt, so they increase allocations to scarce assets.
However, high correlation does not mean BTC has completely become "digital gold."
If BTC truly gains independent safe-haven pricing, at least three points need to be observed:
Whether BTC can stop falling in sync when U.S. stocks decline
Whether BTC can remain resilient when U.S. Treasury yields rise
Whether BTC can continue to rise on its own capital flow after gold consolidates
A more accurate statement now is: BTC has temporarily joined gold's "currency depreciation trade," but has not yet shed its risk asset characteristics.
Another warning signal is that the Fear and Greed Index has returned to 68. Market sentiment has clearly recovered but has not entered an extreme frenzy.
What really matters next is not whether BTC and gold can continue to rise together, but when they start to diverge. Only after divergence can we see whether capital treats BTC as a gold substitute or as a higher-volatility liquidity asset.
Do you think BTC has already begun to gain independent safe-haven pricing? Robinhood on-chain activity has been really lively recently. The most intense is HIMS; over the weekend when the US stock market was closed, the on-chain token once surged to $132, while the stock closed at only $29, creating a premium of over 4 times. However, once the US stock market opened, it immediately reverted to its original state.
Currently, Meme plus stock token trading pairs account for 68% of on-chain transactions. The rhetoric is about short squeezing Wall Street, but in reality, it's just thin liquidity and floating supply pressure squeezing, draining the pool to create a price gap. This play can still be exciting in the short term, but things that lose their premium as soon as the market opens cannot support the narrative of short squeezing Wall Street. #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 🔥 EVERYONE IS LOOKING AT THE FED – BUT THE TREASURY MAY BE THE ONE WHO DECIDES BTC, AND THE MEME 🐸 MAY BE LOOKING AT THE WRONG "BOSS" OF MONEY FLOW? One thing I find very interesting. Every time Bitcoin fluctuates sharply... everyone asks: What will the Fed do? What does Powell say? How much is PCE? Fed cut or hold? But maybe... the market is ignoring an even more important figure in the short term: 🇺🇸 the U.S. TREASURY. Not because the Treasury decides interest rates. But because the Treasury can directly affect Liquidity. BrackishRobinhood Chain's growth is real — record DEX volume near $989M in late August, TVL roughly doubling to ~$700M in a month, about 8x since the July mainnet. But the mix matters more than the headline: tokenized NVDA and AAPL now sit as DeFi collateral, and meme coins paired to those stock tokens are already ~25% of stock-linked volume — one ran from $1.5M to $135M. Genuine rails, reflexive fuel. Watch the collateral, not the chart.
#RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes 77,000 lost, 300 million liquidated: What to do next? Don’t guess the bottom, follow the strategy
115 million longs wiped out in one hour.
309 million vanished in 24 hours.
83,000 people liquidated.
This is not a correction; this is a premeditated massacre.
On September 2, the US military launched a new round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps inside Iran. Explosions reported in multiple locations including Abbas Port and Qeshm Island. Trump warned: if Iran retaliates, "there will be very little left."
Bitcoin instantly plunged from the intraday high of $79,166 to a low of $76,454. Ethereum fell below $2,400. SOL broke below $100, BNB dropped to $683.
The total cryptocurrency market cap evaporated 1.5% in 24 hours.
This is not a normal correction.
This is a double blow from geopolitical shocks plus macro liquidity tightening.
In the past 4 hours, $166 million liquidated across the network — $151 million longs liquidated, shorts only $15.14 million.
In the past 24 hours, 83,109 people liquidated, totaling $309 million.
The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance — ETHUSDT, $11.99 million.
115 million longs liquidated within one hour.
Long positions wiped out entirely.
Why such a sharp drop? Two reasons combined.
First, geopolitics.
Brent crude surged 4.6% in one day, at $94.65/barrel. WTI rose 5.2%, at $90.22/barrel.
War pushes oil prices up → inflation expectations rise → rate hike expectations strengthen.
Second, macro liquidity.
The 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.79%, a new high since January 2025.
Japanese, UK, French, and German bonds all faced sell-offs simultaneously.
The market’s probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to about two-thirds.
Risk assets? All under pressure.
BTC current support range: $76,000–$77,000.
The 24-hour low of $76,454 has been tested once. If it doesn’t hold, the next target is the $75,000 round number. Below that, $74,000–$72,900.
Resistance above: $79,000–$80,000 — previous highs and the BTC trading range before Warsh’s hawkish speech.
ETH: first support at $2,308 (20-day EMA), resistance at $2,485.
What’s the dumbest thing now?
Guessing the bottom.
Geopolitical events are characterized by: fast, fierce, unpredictable.
US airstrikes today, Iran retaliates tomorrow, Trump escalates the day after. You never know when the next bomb will drop.
Guessing the bottom in this environment is like catching flying knives blindfolded.
So what to do? Three plans, pick what fits.
Plan 1: Already holding long positions.
Check leverage. Volatility is extremely high now; it’s recommended to reduce leverage or set stop-loss below $76,000.
Don’t be lucky. Most of the $309 million liquidations were people who thought they "could still hold on."
Surviving is more important than being right.
Plan 2: Empty position wanting to enter.
Don’t try to catch a falling knife.
Wait for one of two signals:
Conflict shows signs of easing (ceasefire, diplomatic breakthrough)
BTC stabilizes above $78,000 before considering entry
Missing out doesn’t lose money; bottom fishing halfway down does.
Plan 3: Futures traders.
Reduce position size. Directional judgment on geopolitical events is extremely difficult.
Or hedge with options — pay some insurance premium for peace of mind.
In this market, defense is the best offense.
There’s a bigger bomb coming Friday.
September 4, US August nonfarm payroll data release.
This is the last nonfarm data before the Fed meeting on September 16.
Market expects August nonfarm jobs to increase by 58,000, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
After Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish signal last week at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 57%.
Nonfarm data is the watershed between two scenarios —
If nonfarm is weak → rate hike expectations fall → BTC may rebound.
If nonfarm is strong → rate hike expectations strengthen → BTC may continue to be under pressure.
Before Friday, don’t go all in.
Bitcoin rose 25% in August; how many thought "the bull is back"?
Warsh spoke, BTC dropped from 81,000 to 77,000.
Iran started fighting, BTC dropped from 79,000 to 76,000.
The $2,000 range from 78,000 to 80,000 doesn’t depend on technicals or ETF flows.
It depends on missiles in Tehran and the podium in Wyoming.
In a bull market, everyone is a stock god.
Only during crashes do you know who truly survives.
In this environment, "staying alive" is more important than "making money."
Holding your position lets you wait for dawn.
Don’t guess the bottom. Don’t hold losing positions. Don’t FOMO.
The blood of 300 million liquidated must not be spilled in vain.
$BTC $ETH $XAU The $CORE project team claims that the "issue is under control," so why are exchanges still delisting the "on-chain earning" activity?
Here’s a brief personal view:
The $CORE project team’s claim that the "issue is under control" holds up at the level of "immediate vulnerabilities have been patched, and user funds are safe," but it does not mean "everything has returned to normal."
Exchanges delisting the on-chain earning activity is a standard risk control measure.
It mainly reflects caution regarding the hard fork window, supply uncertainty, and insufficient information disclosure, rather than a direct rejection of the project team.
In fact, the most important indicators to watch right now should be the disclosure of excess quantities, the completion status of the hard fork, and recovery announcements from major exchanges.
For now, we should wait quietly for the project team’s latest actions.
Feel free to leave your thoughts on this event in the page comments section for rational discussion and mutual learning.
$CORE Missile strikes started again last night! Turmoil in the crypto market is here! BTC, ETH, and SOL are under triple pressure from the escalation of the US-Iran conflict + rising US Treasury yields + September's seasonal weakness, leading to a broad market pullback characterized by "low-volume gradual decline + leverage liquidation," not a one-sided crash.
Today's key quotes and price changes (Binance USDT spot):
• BTC: around $76,990, 24h -2.0%, intraday low ~76,483, 77,000 has shifted from support to resistance
• ETH: around $2,400, 24h -2.7%, broke below the 2,400 whole number level, weaker than BTC
• SOL: around $99.2, 24h -4%+, retraced below 100, highest decline due to high beta characteristic
Intraday movement features:
• High open followed by sharp drop: BTC fell from ~79,166 to ~76,483, with a volatility exceeding $2,600; ETH dropped from the 2,550 resistance zone to 2,380–2,400; SOL fell from above 100 to near 99.
• Low-volume gradual decline: total market cap dropped 4.5% in one day, but volume also contracted, indicating no panic-driven surge; 24h liquidations about $180–315 million, with longs accounting for over 80%, indicating leverage clearing.
• Capital flow shift: BTC market dominance rose above 59%, funds moved from altcoins like SOL to BTC for safety; the Kimchi premium at 0.9% indicates Asian bottom-fishing is still ongoing.
Key levels (intraday):
• BTC: resistance at 78,400 / 80,000–81,000 (ETF cost zone); support at 76,300–76,700 (tested) / 75,475 / 73,500 (trend invalidation level)
• ETH: resistance at 2,470 / 2,550; support at 2,420–2,440 / 2,380 / 2,220
• SOL: resistance at 102–105; support at 98–99 (today's low zone) / 95 / 90 psychological level
Drivers and today's observation points:
• Macro chain: US-Iran strikes on energy facilities → WTI nears 90 → inflation expectations return → 10Y US Treasury yield breaks 4.8% → non-interest-bearing risk assets under pressure, difficult to see strong rebound before 9/17 FOMC.
• Positive support: August spot BTC ETF net inflow about $3.5 billion, BTC ETF still had slight net inflow today, fear and greed index at 73 (greed not yet panic).
• Today's verification signals: ① Whether Iran's retaliation materializes ② Whether 10Y US Treasury yield can fall below 4.8% ③ Whether BTC can reclaim above 77,000 and SOL can reclaim above 100 $BTC $ETH $SOL Bond market yields hit highest since 2008: This is the real culprit behind Bitcoin falling below 77,000
You stare at the candlestick chart, see BTC drop to $76,762, and think, "It's because of the war again."
Wrong.
Missiles are the fuse, but the real bomb is in the bond market.
Global sovereign bond yield indicators have just hit their highest since 2008.
1/ First, let's see what happened today.
On September 2, Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,762. Intraday, it dropped from a high of $79,166 down to a low of $76,483. Within one hour, about $115 million worth of long crypto positions were forcibly liquidated.
US stocks crashed simultaneously — Dow down 0.79%, S&P 500 down 0.71%, Nasdaq down 1.03%. Crypto concept stocks fared worse: Strategy down 6.06%, Coinbase down 6.01%, Circle down 6.35%.
Everyone said: "Because of the war."
But the war is only the first layer.
2/ Let's look at the intensity of the war.
The US Central Command began strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets inside Iran at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on September 1. The strikes lasted about six and a half hours, targeting air defense positions, radar systems, maritime assets, and facilities.
Iran retaliated simultaneously — a US MQ-9 drone was shot down. Trump warned: if Iran retaliates, it will face "even stronger strikes."
More critically, the Strait of Hormuz. Two supertankers loaded with Saudi crude oil were attacked while passing through the strait — each carrying about 2 million barrels of oil. The US military has forced 84 commercial ships to reroute.
The world's most important oil transport route is effectively being blocked.
3/ The oil price reaction was direct and violent.
Brent crude surged 4.6% to $94.65 per barrel. WTI crude rose 5.2% to $90.22 per barrel. Brent briefly broke $96 intraday.
WTI surpassed the $90 mark for the first time since late July. This is the highest close in five weeks.
But rising oil prices are only the second link in the chain.
4/ The real storm is here — the bond market.
The Bloomberg Global Government Bond Index yield rose to 3.72%, the highest since mid-2008.
The 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.798% — the highest since January 2025. The 30-year US Treasury yield stood at 5.273%.
That's not all. Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit 3% for the first time in 30 years. UK government bond yields approach 6%. France's 30-year government bond yield set a new record since 2008.
This is not a single market fluctuation. This is a systemic repricing sweeping across all G10 countries.
5/ Connect the dots, and you understand everything.
US-Iran conflict escalation → increased Strait of Hormuz risk (two supertankers attacked, 84 commercial ships rerouted) → oil price surge (Brent over $94) → inflation expectations soar → rate hike expectations strengthen (September hike probability jumps from 34% to over 65%) → global bond market sell-off (yields hit highest since 2008) → non-yielding assets abandoned (BTC falls below 77,000)
The Fed's September rate hike probability has risen to 65%-68%. Overnight index swaps fully price in a 25 basis point hike at the October meeting.
Bitcoin was not brought down by missiles. It was crushed by the 4.798% 10-year US Treasury yield.
6/ The logic behind this is harsh.
BTC generates no interest. When US Treasury yields were only 1%, the opportunity cost of holding BTC was negligible.
But when the 10-year yield rises to 4.8% and the 30-year to 5.27%?
Holding $100,000 worth of BTC means "losing" $4,800 in guaranteed annual yield.
Institutional funds calculate this. Sovereign wealth funds calculate this even more. The higher oil prices rise, the more stubborn inflation becomes, the less the Fed dares to cut rates, the higher bond yields climb, and the more pressure BTC faces.
This is not a problem the "digital gold" narrative can solve. This is a beta sell-off caused by macro liquidity tightening.
7/ Ironically, BTC rose nearly 25% in August, briefly breaking $81,000.
Then, at Jackson Hole, Waller delivered a hawkish speech — emphasizing inflation is not under control and abandoning forward guidance — pushing September hike expectations from 35% to 60%. BTC plunged to $76,000.
Then the US-Iran conflict escalated, bond yields hit their highest since 2008, and BTC dropped again.
A 25% rise in a month, then losing most of it in a week.
8/ Some painful details.
First, about $3 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs in August. But ETF buying couldn't stop the macro sell-off. Institutions are buying, but macro is selling.
Second, the "digital gold" narrative for Bitcoin is failing. When the real safe-haven asset (US Treasuries) yields soar to 4.8%, funds won't bet on a "digital gold" with five times the volatility of gold.
Third, Iran's crude oil exports have plunged from about 2 million barrels per day in March to 220,000-255,000 barrels per day in August. The supply shock is real, not just "expectations."
9/ So what now?
First, don't blame it all on the "war." War is a catalyst, but the underlying logic is that global risk-free rates are undergoing the most intense repricing in nearly 20 years.
Second, with a 65%+ probability of a September rate hike, any geopolitical escalation before the FOMC meeting will amplify market fears of "higher for longer."
Finally, if you're watching BTC candlesticks, also watch the 10-year US Treasury yield trend. 4.8% is not the end — the 30-year is already at 5.27%, the highest since 2007.
Whether BTC can hold 77,000 doesn't depend on whether Iran fires the next missile. It depends on when the bond market stops selling off.
10/ Conclusion
Today, everyone saw the missiles and oil prices.
But the real story is in the bond market — a market most people ignore, now experiencing the fiercest storm since 2008.
Bitcoin falling below 77,000 is superficially "because of the war."
In reality, it was crushed by the 4.8% risk-free rate.
Next time you look at the candlestick chart, remember to open the US Treasury yield chart.
$BTC $XAU $CL Another major long position holder is also taking a hit for now 😂
"The bit-related entity that previously profited 55.095 million USD from long positions" has increased its $ETH long position to 33,000 tokens yesterday, valued at 79.3 million USD (making it the fifth largest position in Hyperliquid ETH after accumulation), currently showing an unrealized loss of 2.48 million USD
Fortunately, this holder has strong financial backing and is still tens of thousands of miles away from the liquidation price, fully able to withstand it
0xa9de65e6e288fa6ff806692c2464582efce3e049
0x0c5d0549a1f7ad185286a08bfc10f8e9a1c936b3
0xd9e7a8Ea48FB62cc9BdB2A4A7Befbc2675824aFf
0x6c93641c0a049a171bf80b34d639c51c31b259a4Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume has hit a new high again, reaching $1.28 billion in 24 hours.
In less than two months since launch, the trading volume rose from 989 million to 1.6 billion, an increase of 61%. But what exactly is the quality of this $1.28 billion? We need to break it down.
This chain is positioned for RWA and tokenized stocks, allowing users to trade tokenized stocks of Apple $AAPL and Nvidia $NVDA 24/7. But in reality, 99% of the on-chain volume comes from Meme coin speculation, with hardly any RWA activity. The core driver is a new "coin-stock pairing" gameplay by Long.xyz — using stock tokens as liquidity pools to issue Meme coins, like that AI coin which surged nearly 10x in a week.
What’s even more complicated is the payment entry. Robinhood Wallet allows users to buy Meme coins directly with credit cards via Apple Pay and Google Pay, without separate KYC. These transactions are classified as ordinary retail consumption, not crypto trading. Chase has already initiated an inquiry with Visa, so the compliance risk is significant.
Back to Bitcoin $BTC , this Meme frenzy has no direct relation to BTC. But on-chain activity is better than dead silence. However, since this volume is propped up by Meme coins and borderline tactics, how long it can last remains questionable. #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 What exactly is $BTC holding back for this wave?
It’s oscillating around 78800, lacking the momentum to break upwards, and there’s no obvious panic downward for now.
A few days ago, it surged to around 81300 but quickly fell back. Wash’s relatively hawkish stance clearly cooled the market. Over the weekend, the rebound to around 79300 was again met with resistance, and selling pressure above still exists.
More importantly, the long positions accumulated during the previous rise haven’t been fully released, and ETF inflows are starting to cool down. Market expectations for a September rate cut have become cautious again, so short-term funds are naturally reluctant to chase higher.
What needs to be guarded against now is macro data continuing to be on the hot side. If interest rate expectations shift again, BTC could quickly pull back, further clearing out high-leverage positions.
However, from a long-term cycle perspective, the bullish structure has not yet been broken.
There’s no need to blindly chase the rise at this position. If a clear pullback occurs, waiting for the market to release short-term pressure will actually make it easier to find low-level opportunities.
Whether 78800 can hold and whether 81300 can be retaken remain the two key short-term levels.Where exactly did the funds go? The data looks lively, but the market is confusing.
On August 31, BTC ETF saw an inflow of 217 million, ETH had 87.68 million. Last week, SOL and XRP absorbed 140 million and 110 million respectively, and even HYPE managed 56.8 million. Money is still flowing in, but except for the big two, altcoins remain half-dead.
My current rhythm is clear: BTC focuses on structure and ETF, ETH watches capital inflow and the ETH/BTC exchange rate, SOL rides momentum, XRP follows institutional flows, and HYPE bets on relative strength. Funds are indeed dispersing, but it's still far from confirming an altcoin season. I will wait until BTC is completely stable and altcoin capital flows remain strong before increasing my positions.
However, there's an interesting detail on-chain: the number of wallets holding less than 1 BTC is steadily increasing. Small retail investors holding between 0.01 and 1 BTC have been quietly accumulating. Each buys just a little, but there are so many of them; they only buy and don't sell, so the circulating supply gradually decreases, effectively layering support under BTC.
So you say funds are shifting to altcoins? Maybe, but whales are still holding in BTC, and retail investors are bottom-fishing BTC as well. Altcoins still need to work harder to grab liquidity. My strategy is simple: until BTC stabilizes, altcoins are just to watch, not to act on.
$BTC $ETH
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
This early September saw a synchronized sharp drop in gold, cryptocurrencies, and U.S. stocks, driven by a chain reaction: "geopolitical conflict → energy prices surge → inflation expectations worsen → rate hike panic → liquidity tightening." Specifically:
💣 Trigger: Escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict threatens energy supply
The direct trigger was a sharp escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions. The U.S. military struck Iranian military targets, directly threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route, pushing WTI crude oil above $90/barrel and intensifying global inflation concerns.
🏛️ Policy background: Fed's hawkish shift sharply raises rate hike expectations
Prior to this, Fed Chair Powell delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, emphasizing a "firm and fixed" inflation target, signaling possible rate hikes. This statement caused market bets on a September rate hike to surge from about 35% to over 65%, completely reversing previous easing expectations.
🌊 Chain reaction: Global bond markets face a "massacre"
The oil price jump and rate hike expectations triggered a fierce sell-off in global bond markets:
· U.S. Treasuries: 10-year yield soared to 4.79%, a new high since January 2025.
· Japanese bonds: 10-year yield broke 3% for the first time in 30 years.
· UK bonds: 30-year yield surged to 5.9%, the highest since 1998.
· German and Australian bonds: 10-year yields hit new highs since 2011.
📉 How various assets were "knocked down"
· Gold $XAU (non-yield asset): Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar greatly increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to sell-offs. Gold prices fell below $4,400/oz, down nearly 7% from recent highs.
· Cryptocurrencies (risk assets): Under rate hike expectations, market risk appetite sharply cooled, with funds withdrawing from speculative assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin $BTC dropped below $77,000, causing hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged long positions to be forcibly liquidated within a day.
· U.S. stocks (risk assets): High interest rates directly compressed stock valuations, especially tech stocks. The Nasdaq fell 1.03%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.14%.
In summary, this is a cross-market severe shock ignited by geopolitical conflict, driven by inflation and rate hike panic, and ultimately transmitted to all asset classes through soaring global bond yields.
$ETH is currently testing whether 2380 can hold; consider opening a small long position.
The above is personal opinion for reference only. $DOGE Why do I never think that "infinite issuance" is the reason Dogecoin can't rise?
Many people, upon hearing that Dogecoin has no fixed total supply, immediately say: DOGE can never reach $10.
But what really matters is not "whether there is issuance," but the speed of new supply and whether it can outpace the growth of capital and wealth.
Dogecoin adds about 5 billion coins annually, and as the total circulation expands, the rate of new supply decreases year by year. In other words, although it continuously issues new coins, the inflation rate does not remain at a fixed high level forever.
Now look at $BTC.
Bitcoin establishes scarcity with a 21 million coin supply cap, while DOGE relies on an expanding user base, liquidity, and market consensus to absorb the new supply.
So their logics differ:
BTC is "absolutely scarce," DOGE is more like "relatively scarce."
If global wealth, financial market size, and crypto market capital continue to grow, and DOGE's supply growth rate keeps declining, then the influx of new capital driving DOGE's price could easily surpass the dilution caused by new supply.
Of course, DOGE reaching $10 is not guaranteed just because of "low inflation rate"; it ultimately depends on demand, capital, use cases, and market consensus.
But the logic that "DOGE has infinite issuance, so it can never rise" simply doesn't hold.
BTC relies on scarcity, DOGE relies on consensus.This morning even gold fell by 2.4%, yet BTC managed to hold around 77400. Clearly, this is not just the crypto sector taking a hit.
The macro environment is collectively shifting: BTC dropped about 1.8% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 76420; ETH is around 2420, with a low of 2383, down over 2%. More importantly, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surpassed 3% for the first time in 30 years, the yen is approaching 160, and carry trade funds are being repriced—rising Japanese bond returns put pressure on global cheap leverage funds to return, dragging risk assets down. Tonight's ADP report is just the appetizer; upcoming nonfarm payroll and unemployment data, along with US Treasury yields and the dollar's direction, will directly determine crypto's short-term resilience.
Technically, BTC's key focus is the 77500–77650 small structure; reclaiming this zone offers a chance to test 78100/78600. If it falls below 77150 and fails to rebound, look down to 76420, and weaker still is 75800. For ETH, after breaking 2408, if it fails to reclaim 2418 on a rebound, the bias is bearish with targets at 2383/2350; only a return above 2428 counts as a short-term recovery.
Don't bet on the data prematurely now; yen volatility and ADP fluctuations are normal. Wait until conditions are right. Keep positions light and don't let macro volatility disrupt your rhythm.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
PMI cooling, JOLTS warming, data conflicting — rate hike pricing has settled at 66%.
▪️ August ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.6, July 55.6, new orders 53.7
▪️ July JOLTS job openings 7.27 million, below expectations; hires 5.05 million, weak willingness
▪️ CME pricing for 9/15-16 rate hike of 25bp at 66%, less than 40% a week ago
▪️ 10Y US Treasury at 4.80%, a one-and-a-half-year high; Brent crude at 94.65, topping inflation expectations
The divergence is not about data quality, but that data can no longer change pricing.
Manufacturing slowdown and hiring cooling can't stop the 66% pricing. On 9/4 at 20:30 (Beijing time) Nonfarm Payrolls,
The last card before FOMC: weak means pricing loosens; strong means USD and Treasuries move up another notch.
BTC and US stocks are not looking at single-month numbers, but the direction of USD and yield repricing.
Are you betting on weak data (to justify stopping rate hikes), or strong data (to confirm them)?#Nonfarm data divergence before release, September rate hike expectations heat up
Last night at 10 PM when the data came out, it was dovish, and all three coins moved.
ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 54.6, expected 55.2, previous 55.6, dropping a full point. JOLTS job openings at 7.27 million, expected 7.33 million, previous revised down from 7.359 million to 7.182 million. Both data points were below expectations, signaling a slowdown in employment.
But interestingly, the price index remains above 71, inflation pressure hasn't eased. Coupled with US-Iran conflict, oil prices are rising, bringing back imported inflation. The Fed was already hawkish, now even more confident. The market's probability of a September rate hike has reached about 60%.
Market reaction: After the data release, there was an initial surge, $BTC surged above 78,000, ETH followed, and SOL also rebounded. But geopolitical news in the late night caused a pullback. Now BTC hovers around 77,000, with resistance at 79,000 and support at 76,000; $ETH grinds around 2,400, strong resistance at 2,550, breaking 2,380 targets 2,350; $SOL consolidates near 100, resistance at 105, support at 97. All three are grinding within ranges, waiting for data to provide direction.
Dovish data → rate hike expectations cool down → positive for risk assets. But high prices + geopolitical conflict + 60% rate hike expectation limit gains.
ADP at 8:15 PM tonight, volatility is inevitable. Do you think this wave can push prices up? Watching the market so closely it makes you question life — even dogs shake their heads at this行情.
BTC spiked to 77K, ETH fell below 2400, and although ETFs still have inflows, they can't withstand the macro gray rhino: oil prices are pushed up by geopolitical risks, short-term US Treasury yields continue to rise, the dollar is strong, and risk assets are generally retreating. The 24-hour total liquidations across the network have risen again, bulls are being squeezed hard, and hearing “institutional bottom support” now sounds like a joke.
What's even more absurd is that marginal coins are still being wildly pumped; the more abstract the name, the more buyers rush in. The major market is so weak yet still performing independently; flipping to short some high-volatility trash coins can recover some losses, but it's purely licking the blade. What really warns people is the K-line rhythm: after a big bearish candle, a violent bullish candle pulls back; bulls and bears are judging each other. This is not a bottom signal, but a sign that leverage and sentiment haven't been fully cleansed.
What does a bottom usually look like? Volatility converges, contract positions decrease, volume shrinks to boredom, floating losses are cut clean, and long-term funds quietly accumulate. None of these conditions are met now. Don't get bullish just because of one bullish candle, nor declare a death sentence because of one spike down.
The observation anchors are simple: watch BTC for direction, ETH for ETF and on-chain support, SOL for risk appetite. Only when all three stabilize together can we talk about structure; otherwise, just control your hands and don't get bruised by spikes and rebounds.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 Looking back at history, every bull market's first week is marked by a violent surge that leaves most people behind; this was the case in 2019 and 2023. $BTC
But one thing people often overlook: after a big weekly rally, there is usually one or two months of irregular, disorderly consolidation.
During this phase, Bitcoin and Ethereum fluctuate back and forth, and only a few altcoins and on-chain hotspots can generate momentum.
It is precisely these one or two months of consolidation that are the most grueling.
The vast majority can't hold on, low-position chips get washed out, and later they watch the market take off, left with only the regret: "If only I had held on back then."
A bull market cycle lasts up to three years, and the rhythm is always: surge → consolidation and chip washing → surge again.
From where we stand now, I believe we are in the chip washing phase.
My core holdings will not be moved recklessly at this stage.
Many people want to trade back and forth, essentially out of greed, fixated on buying low and selling high, trying to capture every bit of profit.
But in a bull market, frequent trading is actually the easiest way to lose precious bottom chips.
Consolidation tests your mindset, with repeated false breakouts and fake breakdowns tempting you to cut losses or chase highs.
Only by enduring the loneliness can you catch the big main upward wave later.
⚠️Personal cycle insight, not investment adviceTrump: Doesn't care at all whether Iran signs or not! $CL breaks 90, is the geopolitical premium about to peak?
Brothers, yesterday Trump said, "I don't care at all whether Iran returns to the negotiating table, I prefer the current situation," which directly shut down expectations of a short-term geopolitical cooldown. The U.S. almost completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's economy is collapsing, and the situation is already "one-sided."
Oil prices surged above 91, relying on the threat that "Iran could retaliate at any time." But Trump's statement is basically saying—I’m not afraid of your retaliation; it’s better if you don’t sign. If Iran delays taking action, oil prices actually risk falling back. The current 91 level is waiting for Iran to make a move.
Looking at the K-line: 91.38 is below the Bollinger upper band at 92.43, RSI is between 69-73, MACD red bars are starting to shorten, indicating weakening upward momentum. Volume is shrinking, and buyers chasing the high are hesitating.
Objective view: The short-term direction depends entirely on Iran’s next move. Retaliation → surge to 94-95; silence → profit-taking floods out, falling back to 88-90. At this level, the risk-reward ratio is not favorable.
Trading strategy:
Conservatively wait for a rebound to 92-92.5 and then short if it stalls.
Go long if it breaks through 93.
Remember, the geopolitical premium relies on the "possibility of occurrence." Once the market believes it "won't happen," the premium will quickly evaporate. Follow Zhao Gongming to help you understand the buying and selling rhythm of geopolitical markets. #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The conflict between the US and Iran clearly escalated significantly this night compared to the previous days. Trump even directly issued a harsh warning: the agreement is no longer valid, and if Iran continues to retaliate, the US will strike even harder, even threatening to completely wipe it out.
There is no sign of the war ending at all. The Strait of Hormuz has yet to be restored, making it difficult for oil prices to truly come down. Brent crude has surged back near $96, gradually transmitting pressure to transportation, production, and consumption, turning into sustained inflationary pressure.
A few days ago, the Fed said: if inflation doesn't come down, rate hikes may continue. Powell also clearly stated that if the cooling of inflation is insufficient, decisive action should be taken. Within a week, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has soared from less than 40% to about 67%.
The decisive moment might be the CPI on September 11. If inflation again exceeds expectations, combined with oil prices close to $100, it will become increasingly difficult for the Fed to justify not raising rates in September. The key question is whether to continue raising rates after September, in December? The anticipated bull market may need to pause...The US crypto-related stocks index rose nearly 9% in August. Have the concept stocks in your portfolio also recovered? The main reasons are Bitcoin's sharp surge of about 25% in August and a significant inflow of ETF funds.
Looking at some typical representatives in the US stock market:
$MSTR: The crypto buying fanatic, with its stock price deeply tied to Bitcoin, exhibiting a high leverage effect.
$MARA / $CLSK: The two leading miners, whose profits depend on computing power and block production costs, directly stimulated by coin prices.
$COIN: A compliant exchange, benefiting from overall market trading volume and staking interest.
I believe this surge in August is a liquidity premium driven by interest rate cut expectations, combined with institutional funds concentrating on replenishing positions. However, this does not mean one can blindly rush in during this period.
Future outlook:
Seasonal curse and profit-taking
Historically, September is often a weak month for both the crypto market and US stocks. With August's gains being too steep and short-term indicators severely overbought, major funds are likely to take profits around the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, causing a pullback to digest positions.
Widening divergence
Miner stocks will likely underperform compared to coin-holding companies like MSTR or platform companies like COIN due to cost pressures after the halving.
In the short term, avoid blindly chasing highs. Waiting for a decent correction or a pullback to the rising support line is a better opportunity for a second entry.
DYOR From August to September, why a “nice monthly gain” does not mean the trend has reversed
An easily overlooked signal: monthly gains and year-to-date performance can be completely opposite.
Looking at $BTC now, the short-term data is actually very interesting.
BTC has clearly rebounded in the past month, but it is still in a significant drawdown state since the beginning of the year. ETH shows a similar situation.
What does this mean?
The market may be undergoing a “trend correction,” but it cannot yet be simply defined as a new major uptrend.
I focus on three stages:
Stage one: BTC stops falling.
Stage two: BTC rebounds, while ETH starts to catch up.
Stage three: capital spreads from BTC and ETH to high-volatility assets like $SOL and $XRP.
If only stage one occurs, it is more likely a rebound within a bear market.
If it enters stage two, it indicates market risk appetite is beginning to recover.
What really deserves attention is stage three—because that usually means capital is willing to take on higher risk.
So in the next few weeks, I won’t pay too much attention to whether BTC rises or falls by 3% on any given day.
What I want to see is:
When BTC rises, does ETH strengthen simultaneously?
When ETH rises, do altcoins start to spread?
When the market rises, does volume truly expand?
Price tells us "what happened," but capital rotation tells us "what might be happening in the market." Massive Oil Swap Fuels Dovish Expectations? The Long-Term Crypto Logic Behind the US-Venezuela Deal
The White House recently announced a high-profile oil deal with Venezuela involving over 65 billion barrels of reserves, marking a historic scale. On the surface, it appears to be a geopolitical thaw, but it could actually tip the Federal Reserve's decision-making balance.
Oil prices are a weighted variable in the inflation equation. If Venezuela returns to the energy market, the central price of refined oil products could decline, directly hitting the Fed's core anxiety about an "inflation rebound." The previously tense September rate hike expectations, tightened by Waller's hawkish remarks, might now have room to ease. Once rate hike expectations cool down, the dollar and US Treasury yields weaken, injecting a long-term boost into risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
However, it is important to be clear that there is a vast gap between "proven reserves" and "gas station pricing." Venezuela's political stability, extraction capacity, and transportation bottlenecks are short-term obstacles that are hard to overcome. This is not an immediate catalyst but rather a long-term subplot influencing the macro narrative for 2026.
For traders, the value of this clue lies in observation rather than immediate speculation. The true policy turning point signal still requires final confirmation from upcoming CPI data. Until then, patience is key—let the bullets fly a little longer.
$BTC $ETH The most noteworthy thing about $BTC right now isn't whether ETFs are flowing in, but why the price hasn't continued to rise as quickly as before. Over the past 5, 10, 20, and all of August, BTC spot ETFs have still seen significant net inflows. In other words, traditional capital inflows haven't closed. But after BTC entered around $80,000, the price reaction to new funds has noticeably weakened. 1. ETFs are still buying, but new funds are increasingly concentrated In the past five trading days, BlackRock IBIT saw a net inflow of about $935.3 million. But other BTC ETFs actually saw a net outflow of about $131.7 million. This shows that although total ETF funds are still positive, new buying is already highly concentrated in a few products, especially IBIT. So we can't just look at the total "ETF net inflow" now. More importantly, it depends on whether the entire institutional market is continuously increasing its holdings or mainly being supported by a few leading products. 2. Crypto-native liquidity has not expanded rapidly in sync On the other hand, stablecoin funds have not seen growth of the same intensity. In the past 7 days, the total size of stablecoins has only moderately increased by about 0.1%. This means new funds are entering the ETF side, but the native liquidity within crypto that can be directly used for trading and allocation has not expanded significantly in tandem. Therefore, the current market environment is not exactly the same as the previous "ETF inflows + growth of native funds together." NewTom Lee shared his market outlook before the end of the year in an interview on CNBC, which is very close to my view. He believes this bear market for $BTC will officially end next month because, for those who follow the four-year cycle, October is the bottoming period, and this group will return to the market in October. More importantly, he believes many institutional investors will enter the market in September—whether they have some insider information is unknown, but September 15 is exactly the Clarity Act vote, and if it surprisingly passes, it will directly change the entire market sentiment. He also thinks it’s still possible for BTC to rise to 150,000 by the end of the year. From my perspective, doubling from 78,000 or 79,000 within four months is relatively less likely.Expectations of interest rate hikes continue to heat up + U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, causing the three major U.S. stock indices to continue their decline, with AI concept storage, neocloud, and optical modules falling the hardest.
Rising oil prices have pushed up inflation concerns, and U.S. Treasury yields have risen accordingly. The market is re-trading "higher rates for longer, and even another rate hike." When the discount rate rises, the entire U.S. stock market must compress valuations, and AI is just the most elastic asset with the largest drop.
The reason is simple.
The bigger the past gains, the higher the valuation, and the more crowded the positions, the faster the deleveraging now. Neocloud also has to bear costs for GPUs, data centers, electricity, and debt financing; storage and optical modules have pre-traded the tight supply expectations of HBM, DRAM, NAND, 1.6T, and OCS, so they are naturally more sensitive to interest rate changes.
But currently, there is no hard evidence of a sudden deterioration in AI demand.
NVIDIA just reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, a 106% year-over-year increase; on the same day, the market also reported that Anthropic signed a $35 billion computing power contract with Lambda. Order and demand news is not bad, yet related stocks continue to fall, indicating that the funds are trading not on "whether there is demand," but on whether these capital expenditures can cover interest, depreciation, electricity, and leasing costs, ultimately turning into cash flow.
So this round looks more like:
Macro kills valuations, AI amplifies the decline.
Only after oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields stabilize, and AI infrastructure still cannot rebound, with further capital expenditure cuts, order delays, and profit expectation declines, will it be necessary to upgrade this to an AI fundamental problem.BTC market remains quite frustrating, like boiling a frog in warm water. In the end, will the frog be cooked, or will it jump out by itself? Let's first look at the following logical analysis:
(1) Strength of Bull and Bear Volume
The 4-hour level bullish volume is still weak and decreasing, with obviously insufficient trading volume. The market is in a low-volume consolidation rather than a high-volume breakout, lacking sustained upward momentum.
Daily trading volume has significantly declined from the peak of 80,000 on August 25. High-level low volume plus price stagnation continue to signal volume-price divergence.
On the bearish side, bear volume is also quite sluggish, lacking sustained aggression. Overall, the market is in a "both bulls and bears weak" stalemate.
(2) Volume, Price, and Structure
BTC is forming a box range between 77,000 and 79,500, with highs and lows gradually converging. The price was rejected twice at 77,000.
The 79,000-79,500 range is a key resistance zone on the 4H chart, where price rebounds are clearly blocked. Above 78,500, rebound momentum weakens, and during the high-level sideways movement, lows show tentative downward shifts, with direction unclear.
The daily chart is still in a pullback structure after the high of 81,500. The 72,000-74,400 range is a key daily support zone; holding it maintains the mid-term bullish structure, while breaking it would significantly worsen the post-breakout structure.
(3) On-Chain Data
ETF net inflow resumed on Monday with $217 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $206 million, reversing Friday's $202 million outflow. ETF fund direction remains positive, but weekly inflows have clearly decreased compared to the previous week, indicating weakening marginal buying.
Glassnode data shows spot CVD turned negative (from +280 million to -67.2 million), indicating selling pressure in the spot market is starting to overwhelm buying. Spot trading volume dropped 29.3%, with participation clearly reduced. Futures open interest rose 2.4% to $36.7 billion, funding rates dropped 21.9%, leveraged longs are retreating, but open contracts remain above the high statistical range.
Whales continue accumulating, with the 100-1,000 BTC holding group increasing holdings by 73,300 BTC over 60 days, a new high since April 21.
Core on-chain conflict: ETFs and whales are buying, but spot market selling pressure is accumulating, leveraged longs are retreating, and these two forces are hedging each other.
(4) Macro Fundamentals
Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the biggest macro variable this week. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, with May-June revised down by 103,000, showing employment momentum weaker than previously estimated. August nonfarm is expected to add about 55,000-65,000 jobs, with unemployment rate around 4.1%.
After Wash's speech, the probability of a September rate hike rose to 57.5%. If nonfarm exceeds expectations, it may further raise rate hike expectations; if data is weak, the probability may fall back. The 2-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.29%, the dollar rebounded near 99.7, and macro pressure remains.
(5) 🐉 Little Dragon's Core Judgment
Decreasing bull and bear volume and shrinking daily volume, narrowing price volatility and converging structure, combined with the upcoming Friday nonfarm data catalyst, increase the probability of a BTC trend change this week!
If nonfarm is below expectations, BTC may rebound to test 80,000, but the rebound will likely fail to break 82K, and after the rebound, it will continue to decline and correct; if above expectations, the 77,000 support will be tested, and breaking it will target 75,000-76,000 or even 73,500.
73,500 remains the most probable correction target but requires a negative nonfarm trigger.
Finally, no matter how much ETF institutions and long-term holders push, BTC price is very likely to decline and correct subsequently.
🐮 The bull market launch is not achieved overnight; it requires a correction to confirm the bottom price level. The US-Iran conflict has pushed crude oil aggressively above $90!
WTI has climbed back above $90.
Both major oil prices surged nearly 5% in a single day!
The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz has heated up again.
The thorn of energy inflation has stabbed back!
According to reports, Iran announced missile and drone retaliatory attacks on US bases, escalating the US-Iran military conflict further. WTI once rose to $90.57, up 4.95%; Brent rose to $95.14, up 4.92%, with crude oil's cumulative gain this year exceeding 55%.
The market's biggest fear now is that the conflict will continue to affect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Once supply risks rise, oil prices, inflation expectations, and US Treasury yields tend to push upward together. For BTC and tech stocks, this is the most direct macroeconomic headwind. Next, watch if oil prices can continue to accelerate above $90.
If oil prices keep surging aggressively, global risk assets will have to undergo a new stress test.
But as long as geopolitical risks cool down and crude oil quickly retreats, the high Beta recovery elasticity will come very fast! $ETH August's data is quite contradictory.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, below the expected 55.2 and also lower than last month's 55.6. New orders and employment growth are both slowing. But 54.6 is still the second highest reading since 2022, and manufacturing has expanded for eight consecutive months — so if you say it's cooling, it's still expanding; if you say it's heating up, the growth rate is indeed slowing.
JOLTS is similarly contradictory. Job openings in July were 7.27 million, a slight rebound from June's revised 7.18 million but below the expected 7.3 million. The job market is in a "low hiring, low firing" pattern — not collapsing, but not very hot either.
Neither data set gives a clear direction, but the market has already acted. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged above 66%. After the Jackson Hole speech, this number doubled from just over 30%.
The real suspense now is Friday (September 4th) August's nonfarm payrolls. The market expects an increase of about 58,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. July's nonfarm payrolls actually turned negative — down by 23,000. Whether August can climb out of the hole will determine if a September rate hike is a done deal or still up for discussion.
As for Bitcoin $BTC, the 77,000-78,000 range is now waiting for the nonfarm data. It's unlikely there will be big moves before the data comes out, but with a 66% chance of a rate hike, that pressure is very real. We'll see the verdict Friday night. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #贝森特 plans to ease bank credit, high interest rate pressure to be resolved
The leader has something to say
贝森特 wants to relax credit for small and medium banks, relying on growth to digest debt. Washington aims to push inflation down to 2%, with high interest rates as the tool. These two forces are at odds.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.75%, near a 20-month high. Oil prices are above 90, and Washington's anti-inflation stance remains unchanged. The Treasury is also expanding long-term bond repurchases but cannot suppress yields.
Whether credit easing can translate into effective investment will determine the outcome. Investment in equipment and technology expands supply. Investment in consumption and real estate pushes up prices, and the high interest rate cycle will only be longer.
The market is currently siding with the Federal Reserve. The bond market is using prices to tell everyone that inflation won't come down, and rates won't go back.
Holding over 78,100 long contracts on Bitcoin, added at 76,900 yesterday, and already exited near the average price. Continuing to hold short ZEC positions; the two positions do not conflict in direction.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL 1. The US-Iran conflict is indeed escalating
On August 31, an oil tanker was hit by three projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. On September 1, the US military airstruck Iran's Larak Island, and Iran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at the US base in Jordan. Subsequently, Trump approved the new "tanker for tanker" policy, with the US military attacking Iranian government oil tankers for the first time, striking about 100 targets. The US-Iran conflict has lasted for seven months, and oil prices have been driven up.
2. ETH is indeed falling
As of early September 2, ETH fell below $2,400 (a 24-hour drop of about 2.92%). Bitcoin also briefly dropped below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762.
3. Whales are indeed transferring ETH to exchanges
A mysterious whale has deposited 70,739 ETH (worth about $174 million) to exchanges over the past two days, with 97,115 ETH (about $237 million) still not transferred. Large-scale transfers to exchanges usually indicate potential selling pressure.
1. Market reactions are mixed—risk assets are falling, and safe-haven assets are also falling
After this escalation, Bitcoin dropped, but gold also fell by 2.6%. Why? Because the surge in oil prices (Brent crude broke $94) pushed up inflation expectations, and the market began to worry that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September soared to 57%. Rate hike expectations mean rising risk-free rates, which is negative for all non-cash-flow-generating assets (whether Bitcoin, gold, or ETH). This is not "ETH being sold off," but the entire risk asset class is under pressure. UNI从六月低点2.3美元一路走到5.6美元附近，七日内上涨20%至35%，一个月累计涨幅27%至38%，价格翻倍有余。推动这轮行情的核心逻辑，是Fee Switch落地后协议收入开始回购并销毁代币，八月二十一日单日销毁15万枚创下纪录，加上Uniswap成为Robinhood Chain主力AMM，日交易量达1.3亿美元，UNI的角色从治理代币转向了有实际现金流支撑的“分红销毁股”。📈 但市场往往在最热闹的时候埋下转折。当前日线RSI已升至67至77的深度超买区间，价格贴着布林带上轨运行，MACD动能柱走平，上涨节奏明显放缓。八月三十日放量长阳之后，成交量逐步萎缩，价格虽然站上所有均线，五十日与二百日均线形成金叉，中期结构偏多，但短期追高的性价比正在下降。历史反复证明，高位FOMO往往是胜率最低的交易。 更大的变数在九月宏观数据周。九月四日非农、十日PPI、十一日CPI相继公布，FOMC会议定于十五至十六日，当前利率区间3.5%至3.75%。加密恐惧贪婪指数已达69，市场情绪偏贪婪；BTC在77k至81k之间震荡，一旦宏观数据转鹰、美元走强，高估值山寨币会首当其冲承受抛压。若BTCThe market situation of the CORE token has been unusually quiet recently. The price hovers around $0.021 with little movement, and trading volume remains flat. The market seems tired of stories and is quietly waiting for results. This silence is actually capital voting with its feet: concepts no longer hold value, execution is what’s worth waiting for.
From the known information, the project team is indeed taking action. Three core business lines have launched, with fee income going into the treasury for buybacks; meanwhile, 21,000 BTC are staked, and the total locked volume has increased by 25% month-over-month. These data represent solid progress and explain why the price hasn’t dropped significantly—there are supporters holding the bottom and others waiting for validation.
But the problems are also clear. Buybacks have not yet achieved scale and have limited impact on the market; shallow liquidity means even a slightly large sell order could trigger noticeable price swings. The current sideways movement looks more like a brief handshake between bulls and bears within a narrow range rather than a confirmed direction.
The real test lies in the execution pace going forward: whether buybacks can continue to expand, whether staking growth can convert into real buying pressure, and whether market depth can gradually improve. If these variables improve, the current price level might just be the starting point; if execution slows, vulnerabilities will be exposed. Staying observant is safer than rushing to conclusions.
Risk warning: Token liquidity is limited, and price volatility is high. Please assess your own risk tolerance rationally. $COREUNI is surging from above 5U toward 6U, not because suddenly there are more positives, but because the "on-paper mechanism" is finally generating real cash.
By the end of 2025, Uniswap activates the fee switch through the UNIfication proposal: part of the trading fees go into TokenJar, and external withdrawals require burning an equivalent amount of UNI via Firepit. Early on, burns were slow and the market treated it as a concept. The turning point came in July 2026 with the launch of Robinhood Chain—Uniswap v2/v3/v4 fully deployed as the main AMM, with stock tokens + RWA daily trading volume hitting $130 million by the end of August, nearly a 10x monthly increase. Robinhood Chain now accounts for nearly 60% of Uniswap protocol fees.
With volume up, the accounts finally match: multiple days in August saw over 100,000 UNI burned daily, with an average daily burn value exceeding $400,000, totaling about 110 million UNI burned (~$630 million). More trading → more fees → more burning → circulating supply deflation, the flywheel is truly spinning now. Coupled with a resurgence of established DeFi and technical breakthroughs, capital is flowing in accordingly.
⚠️ However, the burn rate heavily depends on Robinhood Chain's activity. The annualized deflation of about 4% was judged by Standard Chartered as "hard to sustain," so it is not a risk-free clear bet.
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动 $BTC is looking a bit grim, opening at 77,508 USD, down 1.35% in 24 hours. The key 77,000 level was lost overnight, with renewed conflict as the direct trigger. Crude oil was pulled up, US stocks and crypto sectors fell together, USD rebounded, US bond yields hit new highs, costs for off-exchange money are rising again. Sentiment, however, remains in the greed zone, Fear & Greed Index stuck at 63, price falls but sentiment doesn't, such a wide scissors gap usually means it's not a one-sided moveThe 10-year government bond yields for both the Japanese yen and the US dollar have recently been surging,
The only certainty is that the increase in risk-free yields will drain a large amount of funds from the stock market, so the stock market won't perform well in these two months.
The Fed's further rate hikes seem like it's trying to kill its own people,
The rise in 10-year bond yields also logically hits non-interest-bearing assets. Previously, the US Treasury's buyback of 10-year/20-year/30-year bonds was part of the US debt collapse narrative.
So if US bonds don't collapse, rising government bond yields are bearish for non-interest-bearing assets like gold and btc,
If US bonds collapse, even with rising bond yields, it would be bullish for gold and btc.
Both scenarios make sense, but the US debt collapse narrative is mostly emotional speculation. Now with btc and gold falling, it’s probably funds calming down; it’s still bearish for btc and gold, these non-interest-bearing assets, since government bonds offer high yields for easy returns.
The only certainty is bearish for the stock market, liquidity is locked and drained.
$ANTHROPIC going public can drain another batch of liquidity, so the stock market definitely won’t get better, it’s hellishly difficult, missing the storage market from the first half of the year when there were daily surges. $BTC $SNDK Trust Wallet announced that it will stop built-in support for 25 networks on September 15. The affected assets will not disappear from the chain, but the original network entries in the wallet will disappear, and users may need to manually add RPCs to continue viewing and operating them. This situation illustrates that wallet support for a chain does not mean the wallet "owns" the assets on that chain. Wallets are usually just a combination of key managers, RPC clients, and transaction signing interfaces. Balances are recorded on blockchain nodes. Wallets read balances and transaction history through RPC requests and then sign transactions with local keys. When a wallet stops displaying a network, it changes the access path, not the on-chain state. The real trouble lies in RPC configuration. If any of the network name, Chain ID, native token symbol, or RPC address is entered incorrectly, the wallet may connect to the wrong network or display incorrect balances and transaction information. When manually adding a network, parameters should not be copied directly from group chats; they should be verified from official project documentation or trusted chain registration information. For staking, delegation, and contract assets, it is also necessary to confirm that the new wallet supports the corresponding transaction types before migration. Simply importing recovery phrases and seeing the address appear does not mean all functions will work properly. After recovery, further checks on assets, staking, delegation, and transaction records are needed. A wallet is more like an operational interface to access the blockchain, not the asset itself. To evaluate a wallet's long-term usability, besides looking at how many chains it supports, you also need to see whether it allows users to securely export keys #BessentCapitalRelief doesn't automatically mean cheaper money. Bessent wants smaller banks lending more to businesses, which could boost equipment, factories and tech investment.
But if easier credit lifts demand faster than supply, inflation stays sticky and today's 4.75% 10-year yield could remain painful.
That's the paradox: more credit may strengthen growth while delaying lower rates. The real test isn't how much banks lend. It's whether those loans expand productive capacity faster Conclusion first: The correction is not over yet. This current wave of decline is the result of multiple negative factors resonating together, and there is still room for short-term downside. But after the drop is fully absorbed, the real main upward wave will start in mid to late September, with targets looking to break through $80,000 and even higher.
A correction is not a reason for panic; it is a necessary path to accumulate energy for the next main upward wave. The deeper the drop, the higher the rebound—provided you can endure this toughest bottoming period.
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1. Market Status: A Nightfall Back to the Starting Point
Due to the escalation of military conflict between the US and Iran, Bitcoin plunged straight down from the intraday high of $79,166 on September 2, breaking below the $77,000 mark, hitting a low of $76,762, with a 24-hour drop of about 2.4%. Ethereum simultaneously lost the $2,400 level.
This is not a simple technical correction. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $315 million, with long liquidations at $251 million and shorts only $64.81 million. Bitcoin longs alone were forcibly liquidated for $84.79 million. In other words, the market is selectively clearing leveraged long positions.
Bitcoin prices in South Korea have dropped to 106 million KRW (approximately $77,000).
2. Why Will It Still Drop? Triple Pressure Has Not Cleared
First: Geopolitical pressure continues. After mutual military strikes between the US and Iran, Trump publicly stated he would "hit Iran harder," raising the risk of further escalation in the Middle East. Geopolitical uncertainty suppresses risk appetite, and funds will not massively return in the short term.
Second: Interest rate hike expectations still loom. After Fed Chair Powell delivered a hawkish signal at the Jackson Hole meeting, CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged to 66.4%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.73%. High interest rate expectations mean the valuation anchor for risk assets remains tight. On Polymarket, the rate hike probability also stays near 55.5%.
Third: On-chain supply pressure is accumulating. Binance's Bitcoin reserves have climbed to the highest level in six months. The average outflow from miners to exchanges surged 564% week-over-week—miner selling is the most direct signal of supply pressure. Net inflows from miners after the halving have reached a near one-year high. These chips need time to be absorbed.
3. Technical Analysis: There Is Still Room Below
Bitcoin has broken below the psychological $77,500 level, with short-term support around the $76,000–$76,900 range. If this level fails, the next important technical support is in the $73,000–$74,000 range.
This is not alarmist—some technical analysts even see the monthly head and shoulders pattern target as low as $29,000 (which is an extreme bearish scenario). A more realistic judgment is that this correction needs sufficient turnover in the $73,000–$76,000 range to complete the bottom formation.
4. Why Is the Main Upward Wave Coming After the Drop?
First, the September 15 FOMC meeting is the core turning point. Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee clearly pointed out that if the Fed holds rates steady in September, the stock and crypto markets will see a "very strong" rebound. The market has already priced in a significant rate hike expectation; if no hike occurs, it will be a classic "expectation gap" trigger.
Second, multiple catalysts are intensively stacking. The CLARITY Act vote is expected in mid-September; Korean investors are withdrawing from AI stocks and re-entering crypto assets; Tom Lee believes the four-year crypto cycle will bottom in the coming weeks. He judges that Bitcoin's recent rise is only the "first phase," and institutional allocation will significantly strengthen in Q4, with ETH and BTC being the assets with the strongest FOMO effect before year-end.
Third, the market is healthier after leverage clearing. The $315 million liquidation has cleaned out high-leverage longs, resulting in a more dispersed chip structure. Once marginal easing signals appear in the macro environment, short covering combined with new capital inflows often leads to a very strong rebound.
5. Rhythm Forecast
· Short term (this week): Continue to oscillate and probe the bottom in the $73,000–$77,000 range, with geopolitical risks and rate hike expectations suppressing rebound space
· Medium term (mid to late September): The FOMC meeting is a turning window; if no rate hike occurs, Bitcoin is expected to retake $80,000
· Target levels: After effectively breaking through $80,000, the next targets are $85,000 and then $90,000
$ETH $BTC $SOL "The Truth Behind Bitcoin's 77,000 Crash: It's Not War, It's Leverage Squeeze"
Brothers, have you been sleeping well these past couple of days?
Bitcoin plunged from a high of $81,500 straight down to $77,000, with a low wick at $76,762. Over $400 million in long leverage positions were wiped out. The entire network is wailing.
The news says — "US-Iran war breaks out, Bitcoin crashes." If it were that simple, you'd be seriously underestimating this market.
1. The fuse is real, but the bomb was planted long ago
On September 1, the US military airstruck Revolutionary Guard targets near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on US bases in Jordan. Brent crude surged to $94 a barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield shot up to 4.75%.
On the surface, geopolitical war scared off safe-haven funds. Bitcoin, as a "risk asset," was sold off — the logic seems sound. But this is not the whole truth.
Before the weekend conflict broke out, Federal Reserve Chair Wash had already dropped a bomb at Jackson Hole — if inflation doesn't return to 2%, further rate hikes are possible. The market instantly pushed the September rate hike probability from 35% to over 60%.
A contract trader told me: "When oil prices rise, inflation expectations go up, and the chance of rate hikes increases. Rate hikes = stronger dollar = risk assets get drained. This is a damn death loop."
$ETH $BTC $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 THE MARKET IS CORRECTING — NOT COLLAPSING
$BTC has pulled back toward $77K after August’s rally, while $ETH trades near $2.45K. Rising yields, oil prices and higher September Fed hike odds are pressuring risk assets.
But the broader trend hasn’t broken. Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $3B in August before the recent outflow streak.
This could be a reset, not a reversal. If capital returns, $BTC may stabilize first, $ETH could follow, and altcoins may become the next rotation. ETF MONEY IS STILL FLOWING — SO WHY ARE $BTC AND $ETH CORRECTING?
ETF demand remains constructive, but short-term pressure is building. $BTC is around $77.8K and $ETH near $2.45K.
Profit-taking, rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, inflation fears, and stronger Fed hike expectations are weighing on risk assets.
The key: ETF flows signal structural demand, while macro, liquidity and leverage drive short-term volatility. A correction doesn’t necessarily mean capital is leaving crypto. Intraday: From a macro perspective, why is the crypto market under pressure today along with risk assets?
The crypto market's decline today is not necessarily just a problem within the crypto space itself.
Many people see $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB all falling simultaneously and their first reaction is "the market is weakening."
But if you broaden your view, you'll find that the real variable affecting risk assets today may come from the macro market.
Currently, the market has raised expectations for a Fed rate hike in September again, while the US dollar is strengthening and US Treasury yields are rising, putting overall pressure on risk assets.
In this environment, although BTC is often called "digital gold," its short-term trading logic is still highly influenced by global liquidity.
ETH's issues are even more apparent.
ETH is not only a crypto asset but also a crucial infrastructure for the entire on-chain economy. When funding costs rise and risk appetite declines, ETH's valuation faces a double impact.
BNB can serve as another observation window.
If after macro pressure emerges, BTC only experiences a slight pullback while BNB remains relatively stable, it indicates that funds are still willing to stay in top-tier crypto assets.
So today, rather than asking "Is this a bear market?" it's better to ask:
Is global liquidity tightening, or is this just a short-term repricing?
These two answers have completely different implications for the market over the next month.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC is looking a bit grim, opening at 77,508 USD, down 1.35% in 24 hours.
The key 77,000 level was lost overnight,
with renewed conflict as the direct trigger.
Crude oil was pulled up, US stocks and crypto sectors fell together,
USD rebounded, US bond yields hit new highs,
costs for off-exchange money are rising again.
Sentiment, however, remains in the greed zone,
Fear & Greed Index stuck at 63, price falls but sentiment doesn't,
such a wide scissors gap usually means it's not a one-sided move.
Next step is to watch if 77,000 can hold,
if it holds, there's room for a rebound,
if lost, it will return to oscillate around 76,000.