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$SOL has finally reclaimed the $100 level in this wave.
As of September 1, SOL is fluctuating around $103, having once surged to about $110 on August 27. It rose approximately 46% in August, ending several consecutive months of weakness.
Behind this rebound, both capital and on-chain data have changed.
The US spot SOL ETF has recently seen continuous capital inflows, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding $1.3 billion; on August 27 alone, about $60.91 million flowed in, indicating institutional funds are providing new buying support for SOL.
On-chain performance has not lagged behind.
In Solana's ecosystem data from May this year, stablecoin supply has exceeded $16.4 billion, RWA scale surpassed $2.8 billion, and derivatives trading volume reached $64.6 billion in May.
There is also a recent change that is easy to overlook.
On August 28, Solana validators passed a governance proposal to reduce the future token issuance rate. The current nominal staking yield is about 5.25%. After the inflation rate decreases, the pressure from new SOL supply will gradually ease.
So the key level to watch for SOL now is very clear.
Whether $100 can hold is the dividing line between short-term strength and weakness.
There has already been significant resistance around $110. If it breaks through with increased volume again, the market may continue to test higher levels.
Conversely, if $100 fails to hold, the profit-taking accumulated from this recent rapid rise will likely be concentrated and cautious.#美财长贝森特会谈日方，外汇与加息受关注
Japan rate hike → Yen financing costs rise → Carry trade unwinding → Global liquidity contraction → High-volatility assets like BTC and ETH take the first hit.
Japan's 10-year government bond yield officially surpassed 3%, the first time since 1996. Just a few hours ago, Basent met with Japanese officials to discuss the yen and rate hikes, clearly heating up market expectations for a September rate hike in Japan.
How does this spread to the crypto world? It's actually simple:
Previously, cheap yen was borrowed to buy global assets; now that Japan's 10-year bonds yield 3%, capital will naturally recalculate.
BTC is currently around 78,000. In the short term, watch if 77,000 can hold; below that are 75,000 and 73,000; above, 80,000–81,000 remain resistance.
ETH is near 2,440 now. 2,400 is key; if it holds, there's a chance to retest 2,500 and 2,550; if 2,400 breaks, watch around 2,300 again.
Gold is around $4,400 now. Short-term high rates will suppress valuation, but global debt and monetary credit repricing actually strengthen gold's long-term logic.
So don't underestimate Japan's 3%.
It's not just Japan's own issue; global liquidity pricing is changing. This is what the crypto world really needs to be wary of.
$BTC $ETH $XAU Yesterday, the price of btc once exceeded $79,000, then reversed, surged and fell intraday by nearly $2,600, and finally hovered around $77,000. The signals from the market have already emerged: the funds willing to buy above $79,000 are clearly insufficient, and at the slightest macroeconomic disturbance, short-term positions are loosened first.
External pressure is also on the table. US Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 10-year yield above 4.7%, and market expectations for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September are heating up. If interest rates continue to rise, the risk-free return on dollar assets will be more attractive, and assets with high valuations and volatility will naturally come under pressure. Bitcoin is unlikely to avoid this alone.
There was quick support near $76,500, indicating that spot buying has not withdrawn. The problem is that the buying currently looks more defensive than aggressive. To challenge $79,000 again, contract funds alone are not enough to push the price; macro sentiment needs to stabilize first.
I will focus on the upcoming employment and inflation data. If the data is hot, the market will continue to increase bets on tightening policies; if the data cools down, risk appetite will have room to recover.
Currently, Bitcoin is caught between bulls trying to raise the price and macro factors suppressing risk appetite. This position is the easiest to make people impulsive and the most important to clearly see the funding attitude behind the price $BTC
(This is only a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice)When I first seriously engaged with mainstream and platform coins in 2024, I saw only two things: rising, and rising faster. Back then, $BTC was just over $40,000, spot ETFs had just landed and halving was approaching, and the air was filled with the tone of "this time is different." The logic of platform coins is simpler: as long as exchanges exist, coins should rise. Mainstream coins are like lakes, platform coins like their own docks, and the docks are naturally closer and easier to leverage. But I didn't use a fishing rod, I used explosives—20x and 50x leverage alternated, thinking I was a genius when making money, and thinking I could get back on the next round when I lost. Only after several liquidations did I realize that wasn't trading—it was an early exhaustion of my patience. By 2025, $BTC will have risen all the way to around $126,000. The market will shift from "Will it keep rising?" to "Why hasn't it reached 150,000 yet?" Institutional entries and narrative rotations — everyone can come up with a bull market logic. My biggest gain that year wasn't a single order, but finally seeing one thing: prices can go crazy, but positions can't go crazy. Entering 2026, the market slowly climbed back from around the high after halving, $BTC hovered around $78,000, $OKB rebounded from lows. Thirty days looked acceptable, but after a year, many people lost that drive. The four-year cycle is still repeatedly discussed; some say the bottom, some say it will be slashed further, but I am not in a hurry to take sides. What has truly changed in these two and a half years is not candlestick charts, but three things. First, mainstream coins have shifted from being a get-rich-quick target to becoming a staple. I think $BTC no longer wants to double, but rather whether it still exists, whether institutions will buy, and whether macro liquidity will come firstThe market narrative in September revolves around three main themes: U.S. Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve meeting, and the midterm elections, with oil prices unexpectedly becoming a key variable shaking the entire situation. The escalation of the Iran situation has pushed crude oil back above $90, fueling inflation expectations, which in turn increases pressure for rate hikes, suppressing U.S. stocks and gold once again. The safe-haven logic temporarily yields to tightening concerns.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, market focus is on the nonfarm payrolls and CPI data. If the data softens as expected, it may create a "dip before the release, recovery after" rhythm, supporting risk assets to rebound under the expectation of no rate hike in September. U.S. Treasuries continue the "last drop" scenario, with the 10-year yield possibly reaching 5%, as the lack of fiscal discipline intensifies market worries.
In the short term, before the data release, U.S. stocks, A-shares, gold, and Bitcoin are generally under pressure; if the data weakens, a rebound is expected but a reversal is unlikely. The Nasdaq is watching the 26,000 support level; if broken, it may fall to 25,000. Gold repeatedly tests the 4,400 level; if it falls below again, the 4,300 to 4,400 range is worth patient observation. A-shares failed to break through 4,000, the ChiNext index is constrained by short-term moving averages, and the tech sector needs to wait for overseas sentiment to recover. Bitcoin is actively traded around 78,000, accumulating momentum for a subsequent push to 83,000.
Overall, September should focus on defense, be wary of chain reactions triggered by weak U.S. data, and consider moderate option hedging. Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; the views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.In the last 12 hours, $BTC long positions across the BTC network liquidated $71.277 million, and short positions liquidated $7.666 million.
Last night, bears crushed the bulls, breaking below 77,000 multiple times, with the lowest point even dipping to 76,385.
In the past few days, from holding steady at 80,000 to holding at 78,000, and now barely holding at 77,000, there should still be a bottom rebound today. I changed my take profit to 77,800. The situation has taken a sharp downturn; the previously set take profit at 80,200 looks really bad now 📊 $BCH Liquidation Flash Report (September 1)
1-hour zero liquidation, 4-hour long positions violently took over at 36x leverage, 12-hour leverage halved, 24-hour avalanche down to 2.88x — short squeeze momentum collapsed from nuclear level to basically no direction
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $0 $0 $0
4 hours $68,300 $66,400 $1,846.94
12 hours $112,500 $105,300 $7,184.45
24 hours $205,800 $152,900 $53,000
From BCH liquidation data, 1-hour liquidation is completely zero — longs and shorts reached a strange balance in ultra-short term, volume zero signals extreme market silence; 4-hour longs violently took over at 36x leverage, volume surged to $68,300, short squeeze fully ignited; 12-hour long advantage sharply dropped to 14.7x, volume rose to $112,500, momentum halved; 24-hour long advantage crashed to 2.88x close, long liquidation $152,900 vs short liquidation $53,000, total liquidation $205,800. Long leverage dropped from 36x → 14.7x → 2.88x, showing cliff-like continuous collapse, short squeeze momentum avalanching step by step. 12-hour liquidation accounts for 54.7% of 24-hour total, medium concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, watch more and trade less when direction is unclear.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; Broadcom and Dell earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Friday Debut: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters survey expects an increase of 58,000 jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May-June combined were revised down by 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "clearly and quickly" fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows September rate hike probability surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at July FOMC; cooling inflation and slowing hiring mean rate hikes this year are unlikely. If this week's data weakens again, the 66% hike expectation may quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Under Test Again
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell first reported after market close on September 1 with better-than-expected results: Q2 revenue $46.97 billion, far exceeding the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion, also beating expectations; company sharply raised full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and whether Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "still has work to do" stance — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," $7 billion ETF inflows set record, correlation hits all-time high; Dell has proven AI server demand is still booming with better-than-expected earnings, Broadcom takes over tonight for verification.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. BCH liquidation data provides an extreme sample: 1-hour liquidation zero, 4-hour longs violently took over at 36x, then avalanche down to 2.88x — the dog whales completed directional clearing in ultra-short term then let go, all chasing longs got wiped out. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm outcome. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC Bitcoin Real-Time Market
Current Price: $77,164 (Sina 05:41 $77,186 / ChainCatcher 05:5x $76,930.28 / HL 05:15 Perpetual $77,019.5, deviation <0.3%)
Intraday Range: $76,368.4–$79,171.5 (HL Perpetual 24h; Sina daily K low $76,420 high $79,220.61; yesterday close ~78,500 → today Asian session plunge low 76,368 then rebound 77,164)
Market Cap: ~ $1.549 trillion (20.07M × 77,164), dominance ~58.8%
Volume: 24h spot $30.41B (CMC historical data), total network contracts 24h turnover $151.52B (+91.76%), volume-driven decline, 4h total network liquidation ~$110 million (BTC longs $38.21M)
Sentiment: Fear & Greed 45 Neutral (CFGI 45, down from Sunday’s 68–75 Greed for 4 consecutive days); daily RSI oversold zone (WEEX 15.11); 4H RSI bearish bias, 1H MACD below zero with shrinking green bars but no golden cross
Technical Structure: 78.5K resistance turned support / 77.1–77.5K liquidation referee / 76.0–76.2K secondary support
77,164 is the friction price after last night’s plunge from 79,231 to 76,368 and subsequent rebound; 78.4–78.5K watershed has turned resistance; 77,100–77,500 is today’s first referee (HL 36.8M long cluster), 4H close below 77,100 → with 77,529/77,334 broken, target 75,571→74,788; holding 77,100 means grinding between 77,164–78,500.
Capital & Macro Update (as of 9/2 05:56)
ETF: 9/01 single day +217 million (IBIT +205.9 million), 9/02 single day +333 million (FBTC +133 million, IBIT continued inflow), positive for two consecutive days, institutions buying on dips, diverging from price
Macro: Warsh hawkish → September rate hike probability 64–66% (up from last week’s 57.5%); 10Y yield 4.784%; US-Iran conflict escalation (US airstrike near Hormuz on Iranian targets + Iranian retaliation) → Brent breaks $91, WTI $88, inflation expectations rise pressuring risk assets
On-chain: Last night 76,368 wick cleaned longs; HL 24h long liquidation $10.07M (93.7% longs); whale long average cost 75,686 still floating profit +3.47%, 74,788–75,686 is institutional bottom support zone
Seasonality: "Rektember" September historical average -3%, sentiment bottom not reached
Today (Wednesday Asia-Europe session → US session ADP/Job Openings) Scenario & Thoughts
Baseline: 77,100–78,500 friction, hold 77,100 to grind 77,164–77,900; rebound 78,400–78,500 if not broken, expect pullback
Rebound follow-up: 1H close above 78,500 target 79,300→80,000; fail to reclaim 78.5K means reduce positions on all rebounds (daily RSI oversold rebound but trend bearish)
Pullback follow-up: 4H close below 77,100 → triggers 77,529/77,334 liquidation → target 75,571→74,788; daily close below 71,000 turns bearish
Spot/Mid-term: 74,788–75,686 (whale cost zone) hold for staggered dips ≤5% per trade; daily close below 71K pause and wait for 68K
Contracts: 77,900–78,500 stagnation with light shorts (stop loss 78,650, target 77,100) ≤2x; below 77,100 no chasing shorts (oversold + liquidation released), wait for 74,788–75,571 stabilization for light longs (stop loss 74,500, target 77,100)
Key Observation Windows
77,100–77,500 4H hold or not (today’s first referee, HL 36.8M long cluster)
78,400–78,500 1H reclaim or not (fail to reclaim → watershed turns resistance confirmation)
75,571 / 74,788 long magnet trigger or not (4H break 77.1K target)
71,000 weekly EMA200 daily close hold or not (bull-bear boundary)
ETF 9/02 +333 million continue three-day positive inflow (decides if 75K is bottom)
Tonight 22:00 JOLTS + Thursday ADP + Friday Nonfarm rate hike 64% priced in; US-Iran conflict escalation risk (Brent break 95?)
10Y 4.784% and DXY 99.6 continue to pressure valuations
⚠️ Objective market summary, not investment advice. Sina 77186 / ChainCatcher 76930 / HL 77019 cross-verified in same frame, reflects real market after plunge; daily RSI oversold (15.11) but 77,100 liquidation cluster not fully cleared, 4H close below 77,100 is true break, stop loss relaxed 50–60% more than usual.
Quick Summary: BTC 77,164–77.5K liquidation cluster = today’s referee (77529/17M + 77334/13.3M), break targets 75571→74788; 78.4–78.5K resistance turned support; 71K weekly EMA200 bull-bear boundary; ETF 9/02 +333 million buying on dips; rate hike 64% + US-Iran conflict driven. $BTC Whale Buy-In: Looks Fierce, But Actually Bleeding at the Edge
These “smart money” players have indeed been aggressively buying lately. Data shows addresses holding 100-1000 $BTC have swept up 73,300 BTC in the past 60 days, seeming like they want to buy the market dry. But don’t get too excited—look at that “whale,” going all-in on $BTC with 40x leverage, average entry price at $78,855, liquidation price just 1.41% away, and the account balance wiped out.
US-Iran Conflict: Appears as a Safe Haven, But Actually Playing with Fire
When the US and Iran clash, oil prices shoot above $85. The market isn’t panicking over the war itself, but fears inflation will prevent the Fed from hiking rates. Now the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 60%, which is a nuclear bomb for risk assets. BTC is holding up relatively well around $77,000-$78,000, supported by the “digital gold” narrative.
$BTC: Whales are buying, war is scaring, currently barely hanging on near $78,000. Its resilience depends entirely on big players buying to hedge against macro headwinds, but if rate hikes actually land, it will still fall.
$ETH: With BTC leading the charge, ETH’s legs gave out, dropping below $2,450. Institutions see it as a high-beta altcoin; it falls first in a crisis, and no whales come to its rescue. Liquidity is terrible. A mysterious whale dumped over 70,000 $ETH (worth $174 million) on exchanges in the past two days, and still holds over 90,000 $ETH ready to sell. Big players are running; do you really expect retail investors to catch the falling knife? Think again.Continuously adding positions during these kinds of pullbacks better reflects the capital's attitude than chasing at highs 💸 BitMine keeps buying more as prices drop, effectively supporting the spot market. The chips sold off in the short term are slowly absorbed by big players, making supply pressure naturally easier to digest.
Next, watch if ETFs have synchronized inflows and whether ETH can quickly recover after a pullback. Corporate treasuries keep buying, and prices haven't been crushed deeply yet. This kind of market grinding tends to build up the powder keg for the next acceleration round. ⚡️$ETH $BTC $SOL This trend doesn't even require me to think; the account is dancing on its own. When the market was just smashed in the morning session, $TRIA rebounded on low volume to 0.008155, but the volume didn't keep up and the selling pressure was strong. This rise is clearly a paper tiger. I directly suggest: open short positions, follow the rhythm of the shorts, don't hesitate.
Just now, looking again at 0.003980, +1024.15%, nailed it. 😏 This market is really friendly to bears; every rebound feels like giving away money. The wait was not in vain, patience is worth it. The previous bottom grinding made people want to run, but looking back, it was all correct. The market is waited out, profits are held out.
Manage your position well, take 80% off first, move the remaining 20% to cost price for protection. If it drops again, let the profits roll; don't give back profits on the rebound. Being out of position is not a sin; reckless opening of positions is the mistake. Take profits when you should, because realized profits are truly yours.
Rushing in now is not courage, it's giving money to the market. Don't envy this wave; wait for the next cycle structure to appear, patiently await good news. 🔔 The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. It's never too late to act after the new structure is confirmed.
$BTC $SOL Besenet loosens credit, meets with Japanese side, Robinhood on-chain crypto-stock linkage explodes—three things are shaping the market landscape.
👇👇👇
Besenet is pushing to relax the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) for banks, freeing up bank balance sheet space, effectively injecting liquidity into the market. $BTC is the direct beneficiary, with support around 78,000. If long-term interest rates are held down, the valuation anchor for risk assets will loosen. Meanwhile, talks with the Japanese side bring subtle changes in forex and interest rate expectations. High-beta assets like $ETH continue to be under pressure, with 2,400 becoming a critical point #贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解
Robinhood Chain on-chain trading surges, the "crypto-stock pairing" mechanism allows Meme coins to pool directly with tokenized US stocks, enabling Meme funds to push prices unilaterally during US stock market closures on weekends. AI (Artificial Inu) leads this track, paired with tokenized Nvidia, rising nearly 10 times in a week. The trading volume of stock tokens brought by crypto-stock paired Meme accounts for about 34% of total RWA trading #Robinhood链上交易激增，币股Meme成主角
Loosening credit supports $BTC, new gameplay injects narrative into AI, forex and interest rates pressuring ETH. The direction is not fully clear yet, but the signals are already on the way.👊#美财长贝森特会谈日方，外汇与加息受关注 First, let me talk about a phenomenon I observed.
In this cycle, many people didn't lose money in the crash itself, but lost it in the illusion of "thinking it could still go up."
Let's start with $BTC
Its role now is completely different from three years ago.
Three years ago, we debated whether "digital gold" was a false proposition.
Now institutions vote with their positions—not speculative positions, but allocation positions. So for my BTC position, I don't look at daily or weekly charts, I only look at one thing: whether the real US dollar interest rate is trending positive.
As long as this anchor doesn't change, the base position stays put.
Now about $ETH
Many people have lost patience with ETH, complaining it rises too slowly, gas fees are low, and L2 is fragmented.
But I am actually more willing to hold at this stage.
Why?
Because on-chain real settlement volume doesn't lie.
If you check the data, the daily average stablecoin transfer volume on the ETH mainnet plus mainstream L2s
is still several times the sum of all other public chains. This is not memory, this is the ledger.
So my position structure is very simple now:
In a bull market, everyone competes on who predicts correctly.
In a bear market, it's who loses the least.
But across cycles, it's always those who see far and can control their hands.
This market never lacks opportunities.
What it lacks is having chips when opportunities come.
What truly keeps you alive
is not how many times you guessed the direction right,
but that every time you guessed wrong, you could still stay at the table.
$BTC and $ETH are that table.
Everything else is just chips on the table.
#BTC high-level consolidation, stronger linkage with gold
#ETH ecosystem value returns, slow is fast📊 $SOL Liquidation Flash Report (September 1)
Bulls dominated all day, violently ramping from 6x to 13x leverage before weakening to 10x — the short squeeze momentum peaked explosively in 4 hours then gradually declined, but bulls still firmly controlled the market.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $244,900 $210,100 $34,800
4 hours $14,613,000 $13,565,400 $1,047,600
12 hours $19,481,900 $17,951,200 $1,530,700
24 hours $22,595,500 $20,548,500 $2,047,000
From SOL liquidation data, bulls controlled the market with a 6x advantage in 1 hour, volume breaking $240K, starting a mild short squeeze; at 4 hours, bull advantage surged to 13x, volume exploded to $14.61M, triggering a nuclear-level short squeeze; at 12 hours, bull advantage narrowed to 11.7x, volume rose to $19.48M, momentum marginally declined from peak; at 24 hours, bull advantage further dropped to 10x close, with long liquidations at $20.55M versus shorts at $2.05M, total liquidations exceeding $22.6M. Bull leverage followed a reverse V pattern: 6x → 13x → 11.7x → 10x, showing a secondary peak in short squeeze momentum with marginal weakening but still strong. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 86.2% of the 24-hour total, indicating high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; direction is clear but momentum has retreated from peak, avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish stance is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply correlate under "fiat credit revaluation"; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists forecast about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly shrank by 23,000, with May and June revised down by a total of 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "clearly and quickly" fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a July FOMC hike; cooling inflation and slowing hiring make a rate hike this year unlikely. If data weakens again this week, the 66% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High-Level Volatility: Gold Correlation Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin gained 28% in August, briefly surpassing $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF drew nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell led by releasing better-than-expected Q2 earnings after market close on September 1: $46.97 billion revenue, well above the $44.92 billion forecast; AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion, also exceeding expectations; company sharply raised full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect $29.43 billion revenue, up 84.5% YoY; EPS $2.55, up 199.5% YoY. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and if Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkishness — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold deeply correlate under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and correlation hitting a record high; Dell has proven AI server demand is still booming with better-than-expected earnings, and Broadcom will follow tonight for verification.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The latest capital trajectory of US spot ETFs is more worth reading than mere risk aversion: capital has not left but is repositioning among assets. From August 24 to 28, BTC attracted about $924 million, ETH gained $824 million, and SOL and XRP inflowed $154 million and $110 million respectively. The real turning point came on August 28 — BTC had a single-day net outflow of about $202 million, while ETH bucked the trend with $102 million in flow, and SOL and XRP remained positive, recording $18 million and $26 million respectively. If funds are truly systematically withdrawing, we should see a full outflow, not this selective divergence. This is more like portfolio rebalancing rather than a complete farewell to the market. The next few trading days will provide clearer answers. For BTC, whether ETF outflows can slow and stabilize is key to measuring market sentiment; If ETH can continue to attract institutional funds and strengthen against BTC, the rotation logic will be strongly supported. SOL needs to confirm whether inflows can translate into price resilience. If XRP's weekly ETF inflows reach a 2026 high, the warming of institutional demand will be even more worth watching. Additionally, HYPE's performance relative to mainstream coins can provide additional clues for the concentration of risk appetite. However, the flow of funds only indicates where capital has gone and does not indicate when prices will follow. Risk warning: Market volatility is uncertain. ETF data is only one observation dimension; please make cautious judgments based on your own situation $BTC $ETH $SO#EarningsObserver | Broadcom & Dell Take Over, AI Returns Face Further Testing
After NVIDIA, Broadcom and Dell have become the new "report cards" for the AI industry chain.
The market focus is not just on revenue alone, but on whether the performance can meet high expectations.
If AI demand exceeds expectations, risk appetite for tech stocks may increase and transmit to BTC and ETH; if below expectations, it may undermine the AI narrative and risk assets.
But beware of "good news turning bad": AI overheating could strengthen economic resilience, causing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates longer, which would suppress risk assets.
Key focus: earnings guidance, US tech sector, US Treasury yields.
Spot traders can control position sizes; contract traders should watch leverage and not treat earnings reports as one-way buy signals.
#Broadcom #Dell #AI #BTC #ETH$ZKP This wave is purely due to good market sentiment, casually throwing some gold coins, and they just happened to hit my head.
Actually, during the intraday plunge, I noticed an unusually dense sell-off of ZKP, and every rebound was suppressed. With such weak support on the chart, shorting was just a natural move. After finishing lunch and checking the market, I immediately took a bearish stance.
Now the short position at 0.04374 has already reached 0.04374, with a position gain of +466.15%. The timing was spot on, and those on board should be waking up smiling.
First, close 70%, then protect the cost price with the remaining 30%, letting the profit run on its own.
Even if you only make one point, as long as you can take it away, it’s yours; any floating profit beyond that belongs to the market.
Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak; rushing in now is like catching a flying knife. Wait for the next signal before moving.
$ZEC $SNDK In the first half of the last week of August, institutional funds continued to pile into $BTC, while $ETH, $SOL, and XRP took a share of the liquidity. On August 28, they suddenly hit the brakes:
$202 million was directly withdrawn from BTC's pool, but this money did not leave the crypto market; it immediately flowed into the pools of ETH, SOL, and XRP. ETH countered the trend that day by receiving $102 million, and the other two smaller coins each attracted tens of millions in new funds.
This is not a collective institutional bearish move to dump BTC; rather, at this current high-volatility stage, they are proactively reallocating chips concentrated in BTC to other major assets with higher elasticity. Essentially, this is a subtle shift in risk preference, not a full retreat.
Going forward, there is no need to guess the market direction blindly. Watching a few key signals will reveal the rhythm: when BTC's ETF fund flow turns from net outflow back to halting decline and sideways movement, it is a clear sign that overall market sentiment is stabilizing; whether ETH can continuously absorb funds shifted from BTC and whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate can keep strengthening directly determines the ceiling of this mainstream coin rotation rally; whether SOL's new funds can push the price to new highs and whether XRP's weekly ETF inflow, hitting a 2026 high, can continue are core indicators to judge if funds will spread to mid- and small-cap mainstream coins; as for HYPE's trend, don't look at its rise or fall alone—compare its relative strength with BTC and ETH to see if it is genuinely strong or just a false rally riding the market rebound.
It is still far from the point to blindly all in: the employment data released this week could rewrite Fed rate hike expectations at any time, Walsh's hawkish stance has not softened, BTC's correlation with gold is growing stronger, and volatility in traditional financial markets could transmit to crypto markets at any moment, adding uncertainty to the crypto trend.
The market is quite volatile, and ETF fund flows do not guarantee price movements. Please manage your positions rationally.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $DELL BofA says Dell will exceed expectations, COO says supply can't keep up, who to believe?
AI server revenue is expected to be $15.6 billion, with backlog orders at $60.6 billion, up from $51.3 billion last quarter. Demand is not an issue, that's the consensus.
But the COO personally said CPU supply is intermittent, and hard drives are also in short supply. If goods can't be delivered, even huge orders are just paper wealth.
BofA raised the target price from 500 to 505, only a 5-dollar increase, which seems a bit perfunctory. Would a real beat only add 5 dollars?
The supply chain is stuck at the production end; no matter how strong demand is, it can't turn into revenue. For Dell's earnings report, the actual delivery volume of AI servers is more worth watching than the order numbers.
Short-term sentiment is driven by the BofA report, but mid-term depends on when the supply bottleneck eases. If the COO continues to emphasize shortages on the earnings call, the price gains won't hold. The ongoing US-Iran conflict: Iran retaliates with attacks, US forces respond, Middle East tensions escalate. Has this round of decline in the crypto market been affected by the Middle East situation?
Specifically, this decline results from a combination of geopolitical conflict and macro factors:
· Escalation of conflict: On August 31, US forces airstruck Iran's Larak Island, followed by Iran's missile retaliation.
· Oil price surge: Market fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude above $90 per barrel, even nearing $96 at one point.
· Rising inflation and rate hike expectations: Higher oil prices increased inflation expectations, with the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in September rising to about 57%.
· Strengthening US dollar and Treasury yields: Rate hike expectations boosted the dollar and pushed 10-year US Treasury yields higher.
· Pressure on risk assets (Risk-Off): Funds withdrew from high-risk assets into safe havens. $BTC Bitcoin fell below $77,000, $ETH Ethereum dropped below $2,400, and total crypto market cap declined.
Behind this is a clear transmission chain: US-Iran conflict → Strait of Hormuz risk → oil price rise → inflation expectations increase → rate hike expectations strengthen → US dollar/Treasury yields rise → pressure and decline on risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). This analytical framework is also supported by international organizations like the IMF.
Notably, before the conflict broke out, market expectations for rate hikes were already rising. The geopolitical conflict emerged at this time, creating a resonance of dual pressures from macro and geopolitical factors.
Therefore, this crypto market decline is the result of geopolitical events transmitted through macroeconomic channels. Cryptocurrencies behaved more like assets sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite rather than safe-haven tools during this process. The duration of the conflict and oil price trends will be key variables going forward.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 BTC has fallen back from the high of 79185, what is the short-term outlook?
Bitcoin started to decline from the recent high of 79185, with the market continuing to weaken. The price is currently oscillating around 77120.
On the 15-minute chart, it is clear that the highs are continuously moving lower, with short-term moving averages exerting obvious pressure. Overall, it is in a recovery phase after the decline. The previous low of 76385 is a very critical support level at the moment. If this level can hold, there is a chance for a technical rebound; if the volume breaks below this low, the downside space will further open up.
The first resistance zone above is concentrated between 77500 and 77800. When the price rebounds to this area, selling pressure will significantly increase. Currently, indicators have not entered extreme zones, and no clear reversal signals have appeared. The market has not yet broken out of the one-sided trend.
At this stage, it is not suitable to blindly chase trades. Aggressive traders can consider short positions after the rebound meets resistance; for those looking to go long, do not rush to bottom-fish at the current price. Prioritize waiting for support confirmation and stabilization before evaluating entry opportunities. Maintain patience with the overall direction and wait for your target price window for medium- to long-term positioning. ARB has surged from around $0.08 to above $0.11, with the market attributing this to a catch-up rally in L2. However, within the price action, there is capital trading Arbitrum anticipating external business inflows.
Robinhood Chain's recent fee spike allows the Arbitrum ecosystem to earn a share of revenue according to the protocol. This differs from valuations supported solely by airdrop expectations, TVL rankings, or project narratives. The market is pricing a premium, watching both on-chain snapshots of increases and decreases, and whether the Orbit tech stack can be continuously adopted by major platforms and convert usage into verifiable cash flow.
I'm not too excited about this big bullish candle. With a nearly 30% increase in 24 hours, contract volume and open interest have surged simultaneously, indicating short-term funds have already rushed in. After the price hits around $0.12, the chasing buyers face profit-taking chips and the unlocking pressure of about 139 million ARB tokens in late September.
ARB's past problem was the wide gap between technology, application, and token value. Robinhood Chain provides a rare validation sample, but one sample is not enough to rewrite the valuation framework.
I will be watching three things: whether the fee peak can be maintained, whether revenue sharing continues flowing into the DAO, and whether more Orbit chains replicate this business model. Only if all three materialize does ARB qualify to break free from a purely sentiment-driven rebound. If the hype quickly fades, this rally is most likely just a sharp spike and short squeeze in low liquidity $ARB.
(This is only a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice.)$CORE further sharp decline is coming with no momentum after this breakout; we may visit 0.01 before September 3 and 0.001 after deposits and withdrawals open on September 3 due to the sale of the full 315 million coins by the hackers, which means a total collapse of the project, similar to what happened with the Harmony coin. Inflation becomes inevitable after liquidity is withdrawn and the price drops to the 0.001 range following everyone fleeing the project.US-Iran conflicts continue; the relationship between Middle East situation and this round of crypto market decline
Middle East conflicts are not the fundamental cause of the decline but act as an indirect amplifier; the real core driver is the rising expectation of Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Middle East situation amplifies macro bearish pressure by pushing up oil prices.
1. Transmission path (very critical)
US-Iran mutual strikes → Increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz → Rising crude oil prices → Market worries about energy-driven US inflation → Further increase in the probability of a September Fed rate hike and rising US Treasury yields → BTC, ETH and other interest-free high-beta assets are sold off.
2. Distinguish: primary cause vs catalyst
✅ Fundamental cause
Jackson Hole hawkish statements from Fed officials continue, the market is already pricing in a September rate hike. BTC repeatedly failed to break 80,000, with heavy resistance above and exhausted bullish momentum, so a correction demand exists.
✅ Role of Middle East situation (catalyst, amplifier)
1. Conflict escalation causes oil prices to surge, reinforcing market concerns about "sticky inflation," pushing up the September rate hike probability, accelerating US Treasury yields rise, and increasing selling pressure on risk assets.
2. News shocks combined with thin overnight liquidity amplify contract leverage liquidations. As seen in your screenshot of the candlestick chart: rapid spike down at midnight triggered many long stop-losses, further amplifying the decline.
3. Market reality confirmation (refer to your BTC, ETH 15-minute candlestick screenshots)
1. BTC is relatively resilient, ETH suffers more: BTC has ETF spot support; ETH is high-beta and more impacted by macro liquidity shocks, matching this market behavior.
2. Gold also plunged sharply: gold accelerated its decline the same day, indicating that rate-driven bearish pressure outweighed geopolitical safe-haven buying, with major asset classes collectively repricing, not just crypto alone bearish.
3. On-chain data shows no large whale deposits to exchanges for selling; the decline mainly comes from quantitative portfolio adjustments plus cascading contract liquidations; spot long-term funds have not collectively fled.
4. Two possible follow-up scenarios
1. If Middle East tensions further escalate and oil prices keep rising: inflation concerns persist, rate hike expectations remain high, BTC and ETH will continue to be under pressure, repeatedly testing lower supports.
2. If conflict eases temporarily and oil prices fall: this can only slightly relieve pressure, not trigger a big rebound; the real turning point depends on US nonfarm payroll data. Only a significant weakening in nonfarm payrolls can substantially lower rate hike expectations and provide a foundation for market recovery.
5. Summary
1. Middle East tensions amplified this round of decline but are not the root cause; the root cause is Fed hawkishness and rising rate hike expectations. The Middle East indirectly hurts crypto by pushing oil prices and inflation expectations.
2. At this stage, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset; during geopolitical crises, do not expect it to act as a safe haven in the short term.
3. Key levels to watch: BTC low at 76385, ETH low at 2382; distinguish between momentary spikes and effective candlestick body breaks.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC September, October, and November may once again be disappointing months for BTC.
In fact, there is reasonable basis for expecting a strong rebound for BTC before the end of the year: Trump's election process and the passage of the CLARITY Act are important catalysts.
However, my expectations for the remainder of 2026 are different.
I anticipate that before the election, the Epstein files will once again become a focus, with Trump's market manipulation allegations and possible legal sanctions being discussed again.
On the Federal Reserve side, I also believe a cautious and hawkish stance will continue.
Additionally, I think the CLARITY Act may be delayed later than expected, possibly until 2027.
Therefore, I do not expect BTC to create new all-time highs through a significant rebound before the election. $ETH $DOGE $SOL SOL 99.46, dropped below 100.
It was still at 104 yesterday, today it directly crashed to 98.28. RSI6=18.84, even when BTC dropped to 49000 in early August, it wasn't this low. But unlike BTC that time, SOL this time has clear fundamental support — OpenSea resumed support for Solana NFT trading after four years, Anza activated the SIMD-0391 upgrade on the mainnet, the SGP-0002 dual deflation proposal passed with 67% support, the annual inflation decay rate increased from 15% to 30%, reducing the new supply of SOL by about 18.9 million over the next 6 years.
Good news is piling up, but the price is falling. Solana's total revenue dropped 87.1% year-over-year, from 1.09 billion to 141 million. Meme coin fees have collapsed, RWA and DeFi haven't fully connected yet. Deflation is real, revenue plummeting is real too. Good news is piling up, price is falling, indicating the market is still watching — is this just the pain after the Meme tide recedes, or is there really a fundamental problem?
At the 100 mark, bottom-fishers are waiting for a rebound, holders are waiting to break even. Whoever makes the first move loses. Comment below, at this point are you bottom-fishing or waiting? 🫡Waller's speech has pushed rate hike expectations close to 60%, and $BTC and $ETH have responded honestly—weak rebounds and continuous selling pressure.
This week, employment data is being released intensively, with JOLTS, ADP, and nonfarm payrolls taking turns. Each set of data forces the market to reprice the probability of a rate hike.
BTC and ETH are now stuck at a critical level, neither rising nor falling, and large funds will not actively bet on a direction before the data is released.
I'm waiting for Friday's nonfarm payrolls, the only variable that can break the deadlock. No action will be taken before the data comes out.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $SNDK SanDisk 1534, yesterday it was still at 1609, today it dropped to 1511.
Overnight, the US stock market performed well, the S&P 500 hit a new high, and the storage sector collectively rebounded. SanDisk rose 5.5% yesterday. The MSCI Global Index officially included SanDisk, and in the last 45 minutes of trading, it surged over 100 dollars. But David Tepper liquidated all his SanDisk holdings, and Moore Capital cut 98.5% of its position. Institutions are exiting, retail investors are buying in; who is right or wrong is unknown, but the directions are definitely different.
SAR=1473 is below, EMA21=1522 and EMA55=1520 have both been broken. RSI6 fell from 63 yesterday to 49.6, the candlestick barely closed at 1534, but continued weakening after hours. On-chain open interest dropped from 196 million to 157 million, a 47.2% decrease in positions—funds are indeed withdrawing. Institutional liquidation, OI plummeting, technical breakdown, three overlapping signals, short-term outlook is not optimistic. It has fallen from 1827 to 1534, a 16% drop. If 1500 does not hold, the next support is near 1473.
Comment below, do you think the drop has bottomed out, or do you think it hasn't fully fallen yet? 🫡$BTC BTC 77120, yesterday it was still at 79000, today it dropped to 76385.
Glassnode says the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is near its lowest in almost two years. They have decoupled, but the direction is downward — US stocks are rising, BTC is falling. Decoupling is a good thing, but the real question is which direction it will go after decoupling.
Trump confirmed a new round of airstrikes against Iran by the US, and BTC directly fell below 77000. On Polymarket, the probability of "BTC breaking 78000 on September 2" plummeted from 36.5% to 16.5% within an hour. Liquidations in 24 hours reached 239 million, with BTC longs accounting for 85.95 million.
SAR=79039 is pressing down, EMA21=78129, EMA55=77366, all overhead. RSI6=21.68 — the last time BTC was at this level was early August, after which it rebounded nearly 4000 dollars. But this time is different; geopolitical conflicts have changed the denominator. Bulls are trying to bottom-fish around 76385, while sellers are waiting for a rebound to offload. Before the direction emerges, entering is a gamble.
Comment below, at this position are you bottom-fishing or waiting? 🫡📊 $XRP Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Long positions have been crushed from 16x down to 6.75x, with short squeeze momentum continuously fading. At the close, short liquidations began to increase — the direction is still in the hands of the bulls, but their strength is weakening.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $154,700 $122,100 $32,600
4 hours $3,155,300 $2,971,600 $183,700
12 hours $4,700,000 $4,291,300 $408,700
24 hours $6,881,800 $5,993,900 $887,800
From the XRP liquidation data, the 1-hour long positions control the market with a 3.75x advantage, volume breaking $150K, indicating a mild start to the short squeeze; the 4-hour long advantage surged to 16.2x, volume exploded to $3.15M, triggering a full short squeeze; the 12-hour long advantage narrowed to 10.5x, volume rose to $4.7M, momentum clearly slowing; the 24-hour long advantage dropped to 6.75x at close, with long liquidations at $5.99M versus shorts at $887.8K, total liquidations surpassing $6.88M. The long leverage ratio moved from 3.75x → 16.2x → 10.5x → 6.75x, showing an inverted V-shaped trajectory, with short squeeze momentum peaking then fading. The 12-hour liquidations account for 68.3% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to below 3x; direction is clear but momentum is fading, avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May-June combined revisions cut 103,000 jobs.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "fall clearly and fast enough" to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at the July FOMC, and cooling inflation and slowing hiring make a hike this year unlikely. If this week's data weakens again, the 66% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High-Level Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin gained 28% in August, briefly surpassing $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Under Further Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell led with an earnings beat after market close on September 1: Q2 revenue $46.97 billion, well above the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion, also exceeding expectations; the company significantly raised its full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and whether Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkish stance — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and correlation hitting a record high; Dell has proven AI server demand is still booming with an earnings beat, and Broadcom will take over the test tonight.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The world has been quite unstable recently. The conflict between the US and Iran has flared up again, and this time significant actions are very likely. Why? Because the midterm elections are approaching, and if Trump cannot resolve the Iran issue, winning the midterms will be out of the question. Therefore, Trump, being cornered, will most likely take some rather drastic measures. At times like this, the market could crash at any moment. —————————————————— When the market turns bearish, who will suffer the worst losses? The answer is obvious: it will definitely be $ETH. "Short Ethereum first when in trouble" is a saying that has circulated in the crypto community for a very long time. Personally, I believe this time is no exception. If an unexpected event occurs, $ETH should be one of the core assets to be sold off. It could fall very, very hard. So, at times like this, it’s wise to open some short positions, and those holding long positions should consider setting stop losses. Staying steady in times like these is a victory. —————————————————— The above is my speculation, based on Trump’s personality. The market’s reaction is not like this. Currently, the market is bottom-fishing Ethereum while also shorting international oil prices. But I think, at times like this, you can’t just follow the market trend. Because at times like this, analyzing Trump’s personality is more important than analyzing market trends. Right now, the US-Iran conflict is the market’s core issue, and the key to that conflict is Trump. Analyzing Trump is more important than analyzing market data. And I believe this time Trump can$BONK BONK This candlestick is quite interesting; the trading volume hasn't kept up, yet the price is slowly declining—a typical purely technical movement without fundamental support. Simply put, the market funds are shifting around, and the signs of a washout by the dog whale are even more obvious than large on-chain transfers. Follow the direction of the smart money and don't rush to catch the falling knife.
Those holding positions should pay attention to position management, and those without positions shouldn't feel like they're missing out. Surviving at times like this is more important than anything.
Which level are you all watching for a reversal signal? 👇👇👇Yesterday's trend met expectations, first with high-level oscillations, with Kong and Duo cutting 880 points and 560 points respectively. After the oscillation, the weakness continued, with two Dan Kong cutting 1300 points and 1200 points respectively. A short 600 points was cut at the low point in the early morning, and one Dan was already cut during the day. For those chasing Duo, it means completely ignoring the trend structure; the obvious posture is a downward shift in the high point, so chasing Duo at a high level can only be said to like chasing rises and killing falls. This is not suitable for oscillating range structures, but suitable for one-sided trends, but it has long been said here that there is no short-term one-sided trend, so what is the difference from giving away.
From the market perspective, after the fifth surge and fall last week, the weekend oscillated and consolidated to recover some of the losses, followed by box oscillations, but the high points have been moving downward, and the low points have also moved downward. The trend structure is weak, and the parallel bottom below has been broken. The Kong head has continuity and will retest the previous low point around 755. Once broken, there is still room to go down, with a depth estimated between 750 and 730. So the continued high Kong remains unchanged, and wait to Duo near the support level based on strength.
In the early morning, Kong near 772 to 775, first look at around 760 to 756. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Green boards can lie. When DeFi primitives bounce on thin spot turnover, it rarely means fresh capital has arrived. Here is what the tape is actually showing beneath the surface: Price Action & Market Structure CRV (+8.44% at $0.3674) and CVX (+8.22% at $2.423) are leading the board, followed by W (+7.09%), SKY (+6.98%), and ENA (+5.46%). Structurally, most of these names are printing lower timeframe mean reversion bounces inside larger corrective downtrends. This is not expansionary momentum yeSince the opening in September 2026, Bitcoin has dropped 1%
Falling back below $78,000, traders are weighing a new wave of macroeconomic pressure against the momentum accumulated last month
The market widely predicts a 66% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, hence "Rektember" dipping below $78,000
August was the strongest monthly performance for $BTC since November 2024, rising about 25%
Also the best August performance since 2017
According to relevant market strategists, from the calendar itself, this will be a resistance
Because since 2013, September has been the weakest month on average for $BTC, with an average loss of about 3%, and only five monthly gains
#美财长贝森特会谈日方，外汇与加息受关注 Walsh's hawkish signals at Jackson Hole are still fermenting, and Fed Governor Barr has made it clear that if inflation does not cool sufficiently, a decisive rate hike should be made. Both senior officials have sent signals in succession, increasing pressure at the September meeting. Tonight, let's talk about whether the Fed will raise rates or not: Hawkish voices within the Fed are growing stronger. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday. If inflation does not cool down significantly enough, the Fed should decisively raise rates. This means that with inflation remaining above the 2% target, Barr has shifted from supporting keeping rates unchanged in July to further shifting from being open to future rate hikes. Barr pointed out that if data trends make him believe inflation is falling toward the 2% target, the Fed can "spend a little more time" evaluating its policy stance; but if inflation does not cool fast enough, "then decisively raise rates." This statement is particularly noteworthy because Barr is a Fed governor and a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). His change in stance is not just a personal opinion but also indicates that internal support for the Fed "can only remain inactive if inflation improves further" is growing. Barr stated that U.S. consumer spending remains resilient, but inflation has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for more than five consecutive years. Measured by the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, overall U.S. inflation rose 3.7% year-on-year, while core inflation excluding food and energy was 3.3%. Previously, the Fed leader...$UNITREE I didn't expect to break even, but it directly brought me profits, this service is top-notch 🙏
In the early session when the price was just smashed, UNITREE dropped sharply, but the trading volume wasn't actually large, though the sell orders kept pressing down. I judged this wasn't the bottom, just the soil loosening at the start, so I followed the trend and shorted.
Now the short entered at 84.29, 84.29 is already in place, +262.14% pocketed. After enduring for so long, it wasn't in vain, today I can have a good meal 🍜
Profits without arrogance, drawdown without despair. First take 80% off the table, move the stop loss of the remaining 20% to the cost price, if it dips deeper let the profit run, and if it rebounds I won't be greedy for the last bit. The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich is often going to zero.
If you haven't gotten on board, don't rush, wait for the new structure to appear. The market isn't short of opportunities, it's patience that's lacking, the market happens every day, surviving means there's a next round.
$BTC $DOGE 【What should you really study when $BTC falls?】
Today the crypto market pulled back, and BTC dropped back below around $80,000.
Many people's first reaction to the drop is:
"Can it fall even further?"
But I focus more on another question:
Which projects' fundamentals have not deteriorated along with the price?
Because a price drop does not necessarily mean a decrease in value.
When researching a token, I separate:
Price Change
and
Fundamental Change
If the price drops 20%, but:
User growth
Transaction volume
Protocol revenue
TVL
Liquidity
are still growing,
then the price drop may just be a market re-pricing.
But if the price drop is accompanied by:
User decline
Transaction volume decline
Revenue decline
TVL decline
Capital outflow
then this is not just simple price volatility, but possibly a deterioration of fundamentals.
September requires special attention to:
Token Unlocks.
This month is expected to see a large amount of tokens entering the market, with about **$1.5B new supply in the first week alone, including about $797M of HYPE**.
So when researching small-cap tokens now, I especially calculate:
Unlock / Circulating Supply
and:
Demand Growth / Supply Growth
What really matters is not:
"Will the unlock crash the market?"
But rather:
> How much new supply is added?
>
> How much real demand is increasing?
>
> Who received these tokens?
>
> Does the market have enough liquidity to absorb it?
Meanwhile, regulation is continuing to become institutionalized.
The US SEC has proposed the Regulation Crypto Assets framework, providing clearer regulatory paths for some crypto asset financing and investment contracts.
This means future crypto competition may increasingly shift from:
Stories and sentiment
to:
Users + Capital + Transaction volume + Revenue + Compliance capability.
So now when I research a token, I pay more and more attention to a simple logic:
Price → Usage → Revenue → Value Capture
If the price falls but the latter four still grow,
I will continue researching.
If the price rises but the latter four continue to decline,
I will be more cautious.
Price tells you what the market thinks.
Data tells you why the market thinks so.
This is what I believe is the truly worthwhile crypto investment approach.
Don’t just watch the price.
Watch what is happening underneath it.
Personal market research and opinions only. Not financial advice.📊 $SUI Liquidation Flash Report (September 1)
An extreme short squeeze started the session, with longs violently reversing by 155x over 4 hours before steadily exhausting down to 4.5x — the short squeeze momentum collapsed from nuclear level to avalanche, and shorts clawed back by the close.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $22,500 $22,500 $0
4 hours $256,700 $255,100 $1,641.06
12 hours $429,400 $370,200 $59,200
24 hours $572,700 $467,900 $104,800
From the SUI liquidation data, shorts monopolized all liquidations in the 1-hour window, with long liquidations at $22,500 and shorts at zero, indicating an extreme short squeeze start; the 4-hour direction completely reversed — **longs violently overtook by 155x**, surging to $256,700, igniting a nuclear-level short squeeze; at 12 hours, the long advantage sharply dropped to **6.25x**, with volume rising to $429,400, momentum collapsing like an avalanche; at 24 hours, the long advantage further declined to **4.46x** at close, with long liquidations at $467,900 versus shorts at $104,800, totaling $572,700 in liquidations. The long multiplier fell from 155x → 6.25x → 4.46x, showing a cliff-like continuous exhaustion trajectory. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 75% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, and when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish stance is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "fall clearly and fast enough" to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at the July FOMC, and cooling inflation and slowing hiring mean hikes are unlikely this year. If this week's data weakens again, the 66% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, briefly surpassing $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by the "fiat credit revaluation" — US Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell led by releasing better-than-expected earnings after market close on September 1: Q2 revenue of $46.97 billion, far exceeding the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue of $16.4 billion, also beating expectations; the company significantly raised its full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS of $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and whether Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's hawkish "still has work to do" stance — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and correlation hitting a record high; Dell has proven with better-than-expected earnings that AI server demand is still booming, and Broadcom will take over tonight for verification.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. Meanwhile, SUI liquidation data sends a clear signal: after a 155x violent reversal, the multiplier collapsed to 4.5x, indicating the short squeeze was just an adrenaline shot with no sustained offensive ammunition. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm outcome. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $UNI/USDT: 8.75% growth in 24 hours — impressive. But +0.0100% funding still pulls the market sideways. How much longer will new longs keep paying?
24h range 69% shows volatility. If the amplitude persists, who will pull harder: the bulls going into the red or the bears clinging to the peaks?I just saw a set of liquidation data: someone who lost 100,000 U had exactly the same trading habits as that "Air Force Commander." Some people are imitating his trading, or is this just the same human nature repeatedly making mistakes? Found a set of on-chain liquidation records early in the morning: three short trades with total losses exceeding $100,000, with a very unified approach: large positions, high leverage, stubbornly holding without stopping losses. BTC short orders opened at 74,574, pulled to 77,265 and forced liquidated, losing 3.8 BTC and 17,000 USD; ETH was even more aggressive, entering at 2,384, crashing at 2,483, over 200 coins, 10x leverage, single loss 41,000 USD, a drawdown as high as 41%; XRP short at 1.3943, liquidation price 1.4594, less than 7 points away, 300,000 in position, 40,000 USD instantly evaporated. Interestingly, these three trades were almost copy-pasted styles. All-in on all positions, adding positions against the trend, never admitting defeat, always with the catchphrase "Short the world." But the most unusual thing was that ETH trade was actively cut when it was down 41%. This isn't his personality; he's always someone who either blows up his position or holds out until dawn. This subtle deviation actually makes me feel more like some imitator who believes in him, gambling his life in his own way. On the surface, this incident looks like a liquidation incident, but what's worth pondering is the market sentiment signal behind it. When the most determined bear representatives start to be liquidated, it means the current price has pushed short-term bearish forces to a dead end. Bears being repeatedly proven wrong often means the trend continues to exist, at least without new onesBrothers, we talked about $ETH Ethereum earlier, now let's talk about $BTC Bitcoin.
After this round of deep pullback, the bearish momentum has basically been mostly released, now it depends on whether the key support below can hold.
The major bullish trend is still intact and has not been broken. If the short-term can stop falling and stabilize, we can definitely play for a rebound recovery later.
Strategy idea:
Mainly buy the dip at low levels and follow the trend to catch the rebound. If there is no major one-sided market, treat it as a range-bound market and don't be greedy.
- Bitcoin: Buy near 76300-76800 on stabilization after pullback, short-term target is 78500-79000, if broken, continue to look near 80000. $SOL #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Have you noticed that $ZEC now looks a lot like it did at 700?
The good news has passed, the market isn't pulling up anymore, it's just sideways. It can't rise, it can't fall through, it's just hanging on by a thread.
Back when it was sideways at 700, many people shouted "the longer the sideways, the higher the vertical," but what happened?
The vertical did happen, but it went downwards. Now it's sideways again above 800, history won't simply repeat, but it's always strikingly similar.
I went back to check the news. Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF officially launched on the NYSE on August 25. Before the launch, ZEC was pulled from 500 to 850, a 65% increase.
Those who were supposed to enter the market have already done so; the rest are just waiting to sell. $SNDK $DOGE $ZEC is really strong this time.
As of September 1st, ZEC has reached around $840, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $560 million. The recent surge peaked near $870, bringing the price back to the high range not seen since 2018.
There are several clear catalysts behind this rally.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF started trading on August 25th, with the fund's assets under management at about $304 million on the first day. Institutional funds now have a more direct channel to allocate ZEC, and the privacy sector's capital story has been brought back into the market spotlight.
There are also changes on-chain.
Currently, the Zcash Shielded Pool holds about 3.84 million ZEC, and the proportion of privacy transactions once reached a relatively high level, indicating that Zcash's core privacy features are still in use.
However, at this point, we can't just look at the price increase.
ZEC has risen a lot in a short time; futures trading volume once reached the $4.5 billion level, showing clear activity from leveraged funds. The higher the price goes, the more volatility tends to amplify.
So the key focus next is whether it can continue to break through around $870.
If it holds with strong volume, $1000 will naturally become the next key level for market discussion.
If high-level trading volume starts to shrink and the price falls back below $800, we need to watch out for concentrated profit-taking.
The story of $ZEC has now evolved from simply being a “privacy coin” to a market driven by ETFs, institutional funds, privacy demand, and supply structure together. All three long positions are green, yet the account shows a subtle sense of absurdity. A trader's real account record reveals that the $BICO 10x long position yield is 16.63%, with a profit of only 0.38U; the $0G 20x long position surged by 122.27%, but the actual gain was just 1.26U. The real profit driver is the $ETH 20x short position, earning 33.82U, but with a margin of 1231.58U, the actual yield is only 2.74%, totaling less than 36 dollars.
Leverage amplifies the multiples but fails to amplify the tangible cash-in feeling. The small coin yields seem explosive, but due to the tiny position size, the profits are razor-thin; mainstream coin positions are heavy, and the returns barely cover the mental fatigue of monitoring the market. This "high leverage, low position" combination essentially trades extremely high risk for nearly risk-free financial returns.
What’s more noteworthy is that contract profits are denominated in USDT, while most people judge success by yield percentage, and this mismatch easily creates the illusion of "making a lot." Traders jokingly say they work for free for exchanges, which is actually a true reflection of many ordinary players in the leverage game: the conversion between risk and reward often tests one’s mindset more than the candlestick charts. Closing small positions and returning to rational position management might be the best "palate cleanser" to go with this fried chicken.
Risk warning: Leveraged trading is highly volatile; profits and losses share the same source. Please carefully assess your own risk tolerance.Originally, I just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up giving me dumplings for half a year. Last night before bed, I was still hesitating whether to chase, but this morning when I opened the market, looking at the trend, I didn’t even need to think—the account was dancing on its own. When everyone was watching cautiously at midnight yesterday, I saw the support wasn’t broken and the bottom was consolidating steadily, so I shouted out, "Don’t panic." $LIT climbed from 2.9031 all the way to 3.6245, a return of +1242.29%. Although the gains came slowly, once you bite into it, it’s really satisfying, brothers. The position management was simple: first take profit on 75%, then move the stop loss on the remaining 25% to the cost price. If it keeps rising, let the profits run; if it falls back, don’t let the gains turn sour. The market is to be waited for, profits are to be held for. For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. There will be more opportunities later; wait for the next signal before making a move.
$BTC $DOGE $BTC reached $81K last week, the highest price in the past three months,
This slight pullback is mainly due to profit-taking,
Now, it looks like a tug-of-war between a bit of consolidation and the next rally.
The area just below $80K is the real battleground. If buyers can hold there, the next major resistance is around $82K–$83K.
If that area is convincingly broken, it could open a relatively clear path toward $90K and eventually $100K.
There is a reason $ETH is consolidating.
Large liquidity is stacked just above the $2.5K–$2.6K range.
This makes the upside look more attractive.
But I won’t get too excited until ETH truly breaks above $2.5K.
However, if it falls below $2.4K, it could trigger the opposite move.On the chessboard, this move is called the "Queen's Wing Pawn Sacrifice," but Wall Street's version is: you first see five moves ahead, and your opponent can only count cash among the pieces you sacrificed.
During those three days and nights at the end of August, Strategy seemed to be grinding down the opponent's king in the endgame—exchanging 4,603 bitcoins for $370 million in chips, at the cost of printing new shares to thicken its own castle walls. Now its pawn line has stacked up to 845,100 coins, each step forward compressing the short sellers' space to operate. But a true grandmaster would tell you: the middle game of this match has only just begun. The fiercer the exchanges, the more scattered the formation; while most eyes are on your knight's leg, your rook has already slid along the open file to the opponent's back rank.
BitMine is taking a different flank attack. With 53,500 Ethereum in the treasury and a total force of 5,901,100 coins, of which 5,067,300 are staked for solid defense, generating an annual interest of 335 million—that's like installing a logistics engine that never stops. One uses equity financing to charge the king's wing; the other forges an iron shield with staking yields. Essentially, both are betting on "on-paper asset inflation" to secure liquidity for the next twenty moves. But do you know? When all players think they are playing a grand game, the board itself is trembling.
Their king is not fully protected. Dilution is the opponent quietly moving your pawns; concentration is all your pieces crowded on the same diagonal; and volatility is the ticking clock moving relentlessly on your neural pathways. No matter how far you calculate, you can't withstand a "five-piece chain" exchange storm—each net asset value shattered into fragments within the stock price. When the market votes with price, even castling on the king's wing can be seen as a reckless rook sacrifice.
I've seen too many beautiful betas, as tempting as traps in the opening. But the real question mark is always hidden in the actual settlement of the endgame: when your chips are numbers exchanged for stocks, and your "king's safety" depends on whether others are willing to keep trading with you, who will fill the holes beneath the board?
So please look at this move—rear in front, rook behind, a triple pawn chain pressing over the center line. You think this is an attack? No, this is just letting your opponent see that after your calculated twenty moves, he has no choice. #CryptoTreasuryBuying The short squeeze in the crypto market over the past week has been brutal: Bitcoin surged straight from around $62,000 to break through $77,000, forcing the liquidation of $3 billion in leveraged shorts within three days, with over 170,000 traders liquidated and exiting the market. Amid the wails of short sellers being liquidated, a set of on-chain data stands out: Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute collectively hold short positions of 138,569 ETH (approximately $338 million) and 3,425 BTC (approximately $265 million) on Hyperliquid, with a total scale exceeding $600 million. These positions are not only completely intact, but their liquidation prices are also far above the current market price.
Many on social media have jumped on the narrative of “whales collectively bearish, crash imminent,” but the truth is quite the opposite.
1. The truth about the $600 million “short” positions: not a directional bet, but hedging arbitrage
On-chain data quickly dispels the misunderstanding of “whales bearish.” Arkham Intelligence data shows that Abraxas Capital alone withdrew 73,872 ETH, worth about $173 million, from Binance within four days.
Building large short positions in the derivatives market while accumulating equivalent amounts in the spot market is clearly not a one-sided bearish operation,🔥 $BTC | THEY CAN PRINT MONEY. THEY CAN’T PRINT BTC.
Bitcoin’s supply stays capped at 21 million, regardless of how much liquidity enters the system.$BTC
The deeper thesis:
When money can be expanded, fixed supply becomes the scarce asset.
That’s where Bitcoin’s long-term value starts. 🔥$BTC
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation