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This $NEAR trade was taken at 4600 with 50x leverage, floating profit at 838%. After several consecutive low-position entries, this altcoin's explosive power is indeed the strongest, but it also tests human nature the most. $BTC
Looking back at the 4-hour chart, it dropped all the way from the 606 high to 430, and market sentiment completely cooled off; those who needed to cut losses did so early. But after the 430 spike, no one continued to push down, and the low-level sideways consolidation is wearing people out—this is often the final stage of chip exchange. I entered at 4600 with a simple logic: after BTC and ETH stabilize, funds will definitely try altcoins with higher volatility; NEAR, which had early hype, is the one with the most follow-up buying during rebounds. $ETH
Now it has risen to 538, up 5.24% in a single day, with buy-sell ratio at 54% to 46%, showing some divergence between bulls and bears. The funding rate has also reached 0.01%, indicating warming bulls. Technically, the price surged past the short moving average, but the 5200-5400 range above is a previous dense trading zone, and resistance is even stronger at 5600. I define this altcoin wave as a capital inflow chasing volatility, not a fundamental reversal; once the trapped positions above are freed, they will dump, and chasing funds unable to hold will pull back.
The 838% floating profit relies on the low cost at 4600; only with a solid cushion can one dare to take 50x leverage. At this position, I am more inclined to see if it can hold 5200; if it can't, it will be a rise and fall, and only if it holds will I look at 5600. Don't talk about the pattern with altcoins; take profits when you have them, don't turn swing trading into being trapped. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
The rhythm these days is: BTC supports and sets the tone, ETH recovers, altcoins explode. The method is the same, but the multiples and take profits must be more aggressive. The market rotates quickly; finding your cost advantage is the core.USDC growth is about more than the stablecoin's market capitalisation
Circle's long-term opportunity depends on whether businesses, financial institutions, and blockchain applications increasingly use USDC for payments and settlement
In Q2 2026, USDC circulation grew 19% year over year to $73.3 billion, while on-chain transaction volume increased 151%
The next question is whether that adoption can translate into sustainable revenue growth as Circle expands its infrastructure
#CircleQ3USDCGrowth This wave has been beaten up badly again
Macroeconomic bearish factors have already been priced in advance (buy the expectation, sell the fact)
High PPI, high oil prices, and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz—during this A-wave decline (BTC79700, ETH2315), the market has already traded through more than half.
By the time the news officially lands, the spot that should be sold and the short positions that should be opened have basically been completed. The bearish factors remain, but there is no new selling pressure ammunition to continue hammering the market; this is bearish factor dulling.
The current macro bearish "quality and potential lethality are stronger than in June and July," but the market pricing stages of the two bearish periods are completely different, which is the root cause of the huge difference in market performance.
Baseline script: Price moves to the $BTC 87300 / $ETH 2700~2800 range, showing a stagnation topping signal → B-wave confirmed ended → macro bearish factors re-dominate the market → C-wave main decline begins, sliding toward 57000/1800 or even extreme lows.
2. Extremely low probability variant: Subsequent data suddenly cools sharply, inflation quickly falls back, and the market re-prices rate cut expectations. At this time, the entire ABC wave count must be overturned, and the C-wave script is invalidated. But judging from current PPI, crude oil, and geopolitical conditions, this variant probability is very low.
In summary
The macro conditions are already complete, enough to support a full C-wave later and form the ultimate bottom; but on the market level, we need to wait for the extended B-wave to confirm topping at the target high before the C-wave officially starts. Macro is the ammunition, B-wave topping is the trigger.
We continue to watch the stagnation topping signals in the 87300, 2700~2800 range. As long as this topping signal appears, macro bearish factors will re-dominate the market $BTC ETFs posted another $261M outflow on Oct 14, driven by FBTC and IBIT, after September’s strong inflows. $ETH funds lost $130M the same session, keeping 30-day flows negative while $BTC remains positive on the month. $SOL stayed quiet and $XRP saw minor inflows.
Institutional demand is cooling after the PPI print and heavy long liquidations. Spot flows matter more than the rebound.
Is this a pause in allocation or the start of broader de-risking?
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Netflix management has strong control over its performance. The company's own Q3 guidance in July was revenue of 12.86 billion and EPS of 0.82, and the market consensus basically follows this number. Netflix's actual results in multiple past quarters have closely matched its guidance, making meeting targets almost a high-probability event.
But "stability" does not mean a high chance of winning. Your bet requires EPS strictly above 0.84, while the current real consensus is already at 0.82. In other words, Netflix needs to exceed the existing consensus by 2 cents to trigger a Yes. In the past four quarters, Netflix's EPS beat expectations twice and missed twice, so crossing this threshold in a single quarter is not easy.
The real risk is not in the numbers, but in the narrative. Several institutions lowered their target prices before the earnings report, with Huber Research directly issuing a "sell" rating. The reasons are consistent: user viewing time growth has almost stalled, competition is intensifying, and the company cut its viewing reports from twice a year to once, interpreted as "not wanting you to see the details." The stock price is now around 70, basically tracking the most pessimistic target price.
Meeting targets is a high probability. But if you are betting on "exceeding expectations," Netflix's risk lies in—meeting targets but giving conservative guidance, the stock price may still fall.
(This does not constitute investment advice.)My reasons for choosing “Democrats sweep both chambers”:
The House of Representatives is basically a giveaway. The ruling party almost always loses the House in midterm elections, Trump’s approval rating is only 36%, the economy is poor, and the Republicans lead by just a few seats. Institutions give the Democrats a 77% to 91% chance of flipping the House.
The real bet is on the Senate. The Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to control the Senate, which is not easy, but the key battlegrounds have turned red in Republican territory—Texas Democrats lead by 3 points in polls, and Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas are also starting to waver. Overall Senate probabilities range from 55% to 75% depending on the source.
Especially cost-effective: out of 64 cents, the House part is basically already won; the real bet is only on the Senate. Betting on the Senate alone costs about 62 cents, so spending 2 more cents can secure an almost certain House as a safety cushion.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ What those holding short positions fear the most is not actually a price increase, but the hype. Have you ever experienced a moment when the floating loss on your screen is staring at you, your finger hovering over the close position button, and the whole world is shouting the same phrase? The first time I truly felt fear was not when my account turned green, but during those days when everyone was shouting "halving," "upgrade," and "privacy narrative." That uniform excitement felt so familiar, like a party where everyone thinks they are not the last runner. I almost pressed the close button. But I didn't. Not because I was particularly resolute, but because after scrolling through social media, I found even accounts that usually only post lifestyle photos were telling the same story. When a narrative spreads smoothly without friction, it usually means those who should enter the market have already done so. As you all saw, ZEC dropped from 1285 to 1088, ETH slid from 2800 to 2363, and CAP retreated from 0.099 to 0.076. Positions aligned in all three directions are still alive, with ETH floating profit around 120%, ZEC about 225%, and CAP about 44%. But I am not excited at all. Because behind every number, there are people who took over at 1285, those who added positions at 2800. They are not fools, just a step later than me in believing the same story. The real trading this round is actually the derivatives structure itself. Funding rates, open interest, liquidation clusters—these cold, hard facts are more honest than any shout trade. When long leverage is stacked so neatly, the price only needs a slight push to trigger a chain reaction.The $WAL project team treats issuing tokens like a cash machine that can print money for eight consecutive years. Look at this setup: 52.96% of the tokens in the pool are still locked and not released. Every day, nearly 500,000 tokens are unlocked and sold on the market without fail, continuously draining value until 2033.
And that's not all. On October 27th, another 38.33 million tokens worth nearly 2 million dollars will be unlocked and released. Facing this daily money-printing machine, shorting is the only way to show it respect!"PPI Strikes Again, Bears Continue to Wait for a Rebound"
The aftereffects of CPI haven't faded, and now PPI stirs the pot again (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
This afternoon, ETH climbed back from 2315 to above 2400. I originally planned to add shorts if it couldn't break through 2400-2450. But when the data came out at 20:30, the plot thickened: PPI annual rate 6.3% (expected 5.3%), monthly rate 1.3% (expected 0.5%), retail 0.8% also exceeded expectations.
Upstream costs are still being passed downstream; this inflation breath won't be swallowed anytime soon; consumption isn't weak, making it harder for the Fed to ease. 🐻
So BTC at 81000 and 80000 remains uncertain; this ETH rebound looks more like handing the bears a knife. In 24h, 185,000 liquidations, $980 million, over 90% longs, a bloodbath 🫠
I took profit on my first position at 165 points, not chasing. Waiting for the rebound to stall before shorting again. Don't rush, wait for the signal. 📉
Personal review, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 SanDisk, which rose 50 times in one year, has only $1.7 million on-chain market cap
The more I look at this SanDisk stock, the more conflicted I feel. The real stock surged from tens of dollars to a high of 1460, nearly 50 times in one year, now hovering around 1340, with earnings report on October 29.
The conflict is on-chain. RWA brought SanDisk onto Solana, pegged 1:1 to the real stock and redeemable anytime—yet the combined market cap of tokens from 8 issuers is only $1.7 million, with the top ten addresses holding 65%, basically no liquidity.
Instead, one SNDK contract has an open interest of $90 million; yesterday it dropped from 1424 to 1278 then bounced back, a 10% swing, with a fee rate of 0.0028%, which is not expensive.
All the money betting on the storage concept is piled into the contract, while the real stock tokens are untouched. Is that strange?
The background is still the AI storage narrative: $39 billion long orders, HBF samples by 2027, Goldman Sachs says AI token consumption by 2030 will be 24 times the current level. The myth is still being told, but the stock price is already reflecting cycle risks in advance.
$SNDK #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 September's $3B ETF bid is being handed back. Spot $BTC funds lost $678.9M Oct 5-9 and another $261M on Oct 14, while $ETH ETFs logged a nine-day redemption streak. Firmer dollar and higher yields are the pressure, so this reads macro, not a broken thesis. Hold $80K and dip buyers have a case; lose it and $SOL, $LINK usually bleed faster. Fed meets Oct 27-28. Size down until flows turn green two days running. Is ETH the funding source for this de-risking?#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins PPI went crazy tonight, but the real worry is tomorrow
As soon as the 6.3% came out, BTC dropped from 83,000 to 79,725, ETH fell to 2,315, and many people in the group showed their liquidation orders. I didn’t make a move tonight, not because I’m bearish, but because with this kind of data-driven market, trading is basically a gamble on size; the rise or fall depends on a single needle, making both bulls and bears uncomfortable.
Now the market has slightly eased, $BTC is back to 82,300, $ETH 2,438, $SOL 105.9. But if you look closely, the funding rates are still positive, the long-to-short ratios are SOL 2.61, ETH 2.54, BTC 1.88, so bulls are still crowded, and open interest hasn’t decreased, indicating leverage hasn’t been fully cleared. This rally looks more like short covering rather than a reversal.
Tomorrow, focus on two things: first, whether tech stocks can hold after the US market opens—today the Nasdaq fell harder than the Dow, money is flowing into traditional sectors; second, whether BTC can hold 80,000—if it holds, expect consolidation; if not, watch 78,000, ETH 2,300, SOL 100, all psychological levels.
One last word before bed: the market happens every day, but your capital is only once. Don’t burn all your bullets just because you’re itchy-handed; wait for clear signals before entering.
Were you liquidated tonight?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins ⚠️ $STRK This wave of the market really calls for caution! Don't assume that no drop means safety!
Currently, STRK's on-chain data doesn't look like a collective whale retreat; rather, it's somewhat intriguing.
📊 Several key data points are worth noting:
🐳 The top ten addresses collectively hold about 7.09 billion STRK, reaching a high since April this year.
💰 Three tracked whale addresses have made buying moves, totaling approximately $722,000.
⚠️ On the same day, net deposits to exchanges tracked about $446,000, showing a clear shift in fund flow.
More importantly, even though tokens were unlocked today, STRK did not drop as expected; instead, it rose against the trend!
This is the most alarming point.
An increase in whale holdings doesn't necessarily mean bullishness; net inflow to exchanges doesn't immediately mean a dump. But when token unlocks, whale buying, and price rising against the trend happen simultaneously, you have to be extra cautious.
Personally, I lean toward one possibility: whales might not be ready to exit yet; they might first pump the price to attract market attention, then look for opportunities to sell.
Don't just focus on the current bullish candle; be wary of a possible reversal ahead!
$STRK carries short-term volatility risks that cannot be ignored. Don't get carried away by the rise, nor chase the price recklessly; wait for further confirmation of fund flows and price trends before making decisions.
Remember: the most dangerous time isn't necessarily when prices fall, but when you think the market is already safe.
##NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins ETH rose 71% in Q3, but trading did not heat up accordingly. CoinGecko's quarterly report updated on October 15 shows: from July to September, ETH closed at $2,684, with the average daily trading volume dropping from $15 billion in Q2 to $11.5 billion, a decrease of 23.2%. This is a quarterly review, not today's quote.
During the same period, the US Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $3.1 billion, reversing the net outflow from the first half of the year. This indicates new capital support through fund channels, but the entire price increase cannot be attributed solely to the ETF; the trading volume statistics reflect the total amount of repeated buying and selling, not net inflows.
For ETH holders, the most useful change is: price recovery is obvious, but overall turnover activity has not recovered in sync. Price is determined by marginal trades; even if total trading volume decreases, as long as fewer tokens are willing to sell at the current price, the price can still rise. Looking only at the price increase can easily overestimate trading enthusiasm.
This set of quarterly figures is still insufficient to judge whether the rise can continue. Next, attention should be paid to whether spot trading volume rebounds in Q4, whether ETF net inflows can continue, and whether the buy and sell orders are thick enough to avoid mistaking the past three months' gains for future returns.
Source and chart: CoinGecko "2026 Q3 Crypto Industry Report," reviewed on 10/16; the chart shows original price and volume from January to September. Below is only the ETH spot market. $ETH Zcash: Privacy Moves to a New Level of Scaling
Zcash is evolving not only as a private cryptocurrency but also as a technological infrastructure
Node acceleration, cryptography development, increased use of shielded pools, and the emergence of institutional tools form the foundation for the next stage of scaling.
At the same time, the goal of 50,000 private transactions per second remains a long-term target, not an already achieved result
In Q3 2026, $ZEC made a significant step toward scaling private transactions.
One of the main events was the launch of Zakura — a new full network node that reduced full synchronization time from nearly 21 hours to 4 hours
At the end of July, Ironwood (NU6.3) was activated — a new shielded pool with cryptographic proof of coin supply correctness.
Over the quarter, the volume of ZEC in shielded pools increased by 11.8% — from 4.42 million to 4.94 million coins.
The share of shielded supply rose from 26.3% to 29.1%.
Zakura and scaling to 50,000 transactions per second
The team's goal is to gradually increase the throughput of private transactions to approximately 50,000 TPS.
At the end of August, Zakura Common introduced cryptographic optimizations that sped up proof generation on mobile devices by more than 14 times.
A standard private transaction on an iPhone now takes about 200 milliseconds instead of over three seconds.
In Q3, the network processed 710,047 transactions — 21% more than in the previous quarter
The share of transactions interacting with shielded pools reached 52.7% of all non-coinbase transactions. In Q2, this figure was only 27.4%.
Mining difficulty also increased: the average value for the quarter rose by 55% to 222.6 million.
Cypherpunk Technologies, a public Nasdaq-listed company using the ZEC treasury accumulation model, increased its holdings to approximately 326,000 coins and started mining.
The next stage is the NU7 upgrade, which is expected to introduce 25-second blocks in early November. The macro backdrop is hostile until the data and bond market tell us otherwise. But the strongest signal will be the combination of Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC's daily structure—not a single CPI headline or a temporary liquidation wick.
I would treat October 15's PPI, retail sales and jobless claims as the next test, then use Warsh's remarks to assess whether the Fed is leaning toward an October hike or preserving the option to wait until December. No need to front-run that decision.$STRK perpetual 50x long position, opened at 0.0758, currently at 0.08828, floating profit +823.21%.
The idea is very simple: the bottom consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating chips are being accumulated. A single volume-increasing bullish candle directly lifts the price from 0.0758, a typical breakout signal, go long, not short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 0.073. The trend goes straight up, giving no comfortable entry point, profits take off immediately.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half to 0.086 to let profits run. If 0.095 breaks out with volume, continue holding; if it can't push through, exit fully. $ETH $BTC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix will release its Q3 earnings on October 20. The market is currently focused on two things: revenue growth and the advertising business.
The company’s own guidance is Q3 revenue of $12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%. Operating margin is expected to be 33.2%, up 5 percentage points from 28.2% in the same period last year. Both revenue and margin are rising, but the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to previous years.$NEAR perpetual 50x long position, opened at 5.26, now at 5.345, floating profit +79.84%. After stabilizing above the 5.2 level, a strong bullish candle pushed the price up, so I followed the trend to go long. The 50x leverage position is controllable, with a stop loss set below 5.0.
NEAR has recently seen a cluster of positive developments: Bitwise spot NEAR ETF launched, Grayscale's new AI fund includes NEAR, plus Robinhood Chain integrated NEAR Intents, with cross-chain trading volume exceeding 33 billion. There is also a proposal to reduce token issuance, and no large-scale unlocking pressure looming. The 5.2 bottom was firmly supported by buyers, leading to a strong bullish surge.
$BTC
Since entry, it has steadily risen without a significant pullback, with floating profits quickly reaching nearly 80%. The trailing stop loss has been raised to 5.3 to lock in profits, now watching if the resistance near the previous high at 5.6 can be broken with volume. $STRK #沙特阿美总部遇袭，原油供应受关注 This $ZEC position was taken at 1090 with over 50x leverage, now floating with a 657% profit. The numbers look explosive, but the underlying logic is still the same "low-level support + sentiment recovery"; only altcoins have much stronger volatility than BTC or ETH.
On the 4-hour chart, the price fell steadily from 1384 down to 1071, with the market withdrawing all the valuation it should give, and basically no one holding chips. But after the spike down to 1071, the price stopped falling, consolidated at a low level, then a bullish candle pulled it up—this is a typical signal that the main force has finished accumulating and the shorts are exhausted. I entered at 1090, betting on this rebound to continue.
Now it has risen to 1233, up 4.54% in a single day, looking strong, but the order book shows a buy/sell ratio of 27% to 73%, with heavy selling pressure. The funding rate is also not low; the longs are a bit crowded. The 1240-1250 area above is a dense zone of short-term moving averages, and further up 1300-1330 is all previous trapped positions. This kind of altcoin rebound is often a short-term capital inflow to try a quick gain, and once the heat cools down, profit-taking will be very fast.
The 657% floating profit mainly comes from the low cost at 1090 and having a profit buffer with 50x leverage to hold on. If it can't hold above 1240, it’s easy to spike up and then fall back. Don’t talk about faith with altcoins; I treat this position as a swing recovery trade and plan to take profits in batches when there’s meat.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Netflix's growth slowdown is a consensus, but I'm more concerned whether the advertising business can take over.
1️⃣ Growth pressure is real. The Q3 revenue guidance of $12.86 billion in July was below the market expectation of $13 billion, causing a 9% drop in after-hours trading. Subscription user numbers have long stopped being disclosed, and now even viewing time data is being reduced, so the market can only focus on revenue and profit margins.
2️⃣ Advertising is the new highlight. The company still expects advertising revenue to double to about $3 billion by 2026. Live content like NFL, MLB, and WWE has also attracted advertising demand.
3️⃣ My judgment: The advertising segment has turned low-paying users into ad revenue, but currently, its per capita income may not match the original ad-free plans. It depends on whether advertising technology and fill rates can continue to improve. If this keeps pace, the growth story can continue; otherwise, valuations will be under pressure.
4️⃣ Next, watch three points: advertising revenue progress, operating profit margin, and Q4 guidance.
Personal opinion, not investment advice, welcome discussion 🙏This $BTC long position is held around the 80,000 support level, not aiming for a big reversal.
Opened long at 81,100 with 100x leverage, currently floating profit is 148%. The logic is similar to the ETH position from a couple of days ago, but the market sentiment is different. BTC fell from 86,600 down to the long lower shadow at 79,700, clearly showing short sellers exhausted and bulls defending. Everyone is watching the 80,000 round number; when it really hits, no one dares to short, and low-level chips are quickly absorbed.
Currently around 82,300, but the order book shows a buy-sell ratio of 32% to 68%, with heavy selling pressure. Funding rates are also not low, indicating bulls are a bit crowded again. On the 4-hour chart, the price just reclaimed the short-term moving average, but there is a lot of trapped positions between 82,800-83,000, and even more resistance at 84,000. The longer-term moving averages are still pressing down, so this is just a rebound repair after a drop, not a main upward wave.
I hold because my 81,100 cost is low enough to have profit buffer, so I’m not worried about pullbacks. But with 100x leverage, those without cost advantage chasing in will be wiped out by a normal pullback. Watch if 82,800 can hold; if not, expect consolidation, if it holds, then look to 84,000.
For BTC at this level, watch who is absorbing at the lows and who is running at the highs. We just finished the first leg of the correction, no rush, let the market play out on its own.Korean stocks hit circuit breakers, but there are two hidden positives on the market: the probability of a rate hike in October is declining, and both short- and long-term U.S. Treasury yields are falling in sync.
In the past, U.S. stocks were under pressure due to aging themes and high valuations awaiting earnings realization; meanwhile, U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and corporate bonds have been competing continuously for liquidity.
This stock market plunge has driven funds into U.S. Treasuries, easing liquidity pressure there. Gold, linked to interest rates, has remained generally stable. Without a major liquidity crisis, gold prices remain resilient; even a short-term sharp drop is supported by central bank gold purchases, making it suitable for low-risk positioning.
Tonight's PPI is very likely to follow the CPI trend. Even if the data is somewhat positive, it will only trigger a slight rebound and cannot change the downward trend. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
This round of decline will only gradually stop after the FOMC decision and positive developments like easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran converge, so patience is advised. $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX $ETH This position is about buying at a low level support, not a trend reversal.
Opened 100x long at 2368, currently floating profit is 334%. To be clear, this trade is not chasing the rally; I entered only after the 2315 spike, when the market told me "the selling pressure is exhausted."
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price had been steadily declining from 2724 with all moving averages pressing down, sentiment was indeed poor. But after hitting the 2315 low, volume shrank and the downward momentum clearly weakened. This kind of level is where short sellers often take profits, so as long as buyers step in even a little, a rebound comes quickly. My feeling watching the market was: those who needed to cut losses already did, and someone is accumulating at the low.
Now the price has bounced back to 2448, with buy vs sell orders at 73% to 27%, bulls temporarily in control, and funding rates not excessive. But don’t get carried away; the 2500-2600 range above is full of trapped positions. Although short-term moving averages are turning up, the long-term trend is still bearish. This is currently just an emotional recovery rebound.
With 100x leverage, I can hold because my cost is low and I have profit buffer. Anyone chasing in now will get shaken out by even a slight pullback. Resistance near 2500 is key; if it breaks and holds, continuation is possible, if not, expect consolidation.
The core of this kind of trade is simple: look for support at low levels, don’t guess the bottom, confirm first then act. 100x leverage is only suitable for those with cost advantage; chasing high without position advantage is just giving away money.The entire market is searching for a bottom, but the institutions holding large funds gave a thought-provoking signal yesterday. After reviewing the latest ETF data, I found an anomaly: $BTC had a net outflow of 31.44 million in a single day, BlackRock sold 13.34 million, Fidelity sold 18.36 million — yet just the day before, these two combined had bought over 20 million. Buying one day, clearing out the next — this is not panic, but institutions rapidly shrinking their risk exposure in response to the CPI data. Let's break down three things. The capital movement in $BTC looks like a probe: immediately stopping after CPI exceeded expectations indicates institutions are far more sensitive to macro data than fixated on price. $ETH was almost static, with a net outflow of only 51,900; Grayscale slightly reduced, BlackRock slightly reduced, price dropped near 2315, institutions neither bought nor sold, all adopting a wait-and-see stance. The truly interesting part is $SOL: net outflow was only 12,200, with only Bitwise selling; this marks the eighth consecutive day of outflows, but compared to previous days' tens of millions scale, yesterday's volume is almost negligible. Here lies a conclusion overlooked by most: selling pressure from the ETF side is waning, yet prices continue to fall, indicating the main force driving the dump is no longer spot ETFs but long positions being liquidated in the futures market. $SOL's long-short ratio remains high at 2.68, meaning longs have not been cleared; the chain of cascading liquidations is not over. In other words, the drop is not because institutions are selling, but because leverage is self-liquidating. My judgment is: institutions are not panicking, they are waiting. $ETH #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Netflix's growth slowdown is a consensus, but I'm more concerned whether the advertising business can take over.
1️⃣ Growth pressure is real. The Q3 revenue guidance of $12.86 billion in July was below the market expectation of $13 billion, causing a 9% drop in after-hours trading. Subscription user numbers have long stopped being disclosed, and now even viewing time data is being reduced, so the market can only focus on revenue and profit margins.
2️⃣ Advertising is the new highlight. The company still expects advertising revenue to double to about $3 billion by 2026. Live content like NFL, MLB, and WWE has also attracted advertising demand.
3️⃣ My judgment: The advertising segment has turned low-paying users into ad revenue, but currently, its per capita income may not match the original ad-free plans. It depends on whether advertising technology and fill rates can continue to improve. If this keeps pace, the growth story can continue; otherwise, valuations will be under pressure.
4️⃣ Next, watch three points: advertising revenue progress, operating profit margin, and Q4 guidance.
Personal opinion, not investment advice, welcome discussion 🙏Before the PPI data was released, the market was already falling, and once the data came out, it accelerated the plunge.
$BTC slid all the way down from above 83000 to 80168, $ETH dropped to 2315, and $SOL was the worst, hitting a low of 100.46, barely holding the triple digits. It has now slightly caught its breath, with BTC at 81000, ETH at 2363, and SOL at 102.15.
PPI came in at 6.3%, expected 5.3%, inflation hasn't really come down. CPI just exploded, now PPI follows suit. Rate cuts are completely off the table, and the threat of rate hikes is back. This isn't just a single data issue; two consecutive inflation indicators are slapping the market in the face, basically shattering the market's fantasy of a Fed pivot.
Looking at the market, the first wave of the plunge has just passed, but the bulls haven't given up yet. Positions haven't dropped much, and funding rates haven't turned extremely negative, indicating leverage hasn't been fully cleared. Bottom fishing now is just handing out money; even if you want to try, wait until the market volume shrinks and stabilizes.
I'm still holding shorts, not because I'm bearish, but because in this kind of market both longs and shorts are easily stopped out. Forcing trades now is just giving away money. Let the leverage digest itself first; there's no rush now.
Key support levels below: BTC 80000/78000, ETH 2300/2200, SOL 100/95. Don't rush to catch the round numbers; catching them poorly means bleeding hands.
Did you hold up through tonight's market?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 When River surged up this line, I stared at the screen in a daze for two seconds ✨ Have you ever had that moment of "finally waiting for it to move"? Before, it was always sluggish, like testing someone's patience. Today it finally stood above 1, and the position in my hand hasn't been closed; the floating profit is already close to 150,000 U. It's not false to say I was tempted, but I want to see clearly: is this wave really an emotional pulse, or has the pricing logic truly changed? Let's first review today's environment. US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI is also waiting to be revealed. Under this combination, the market's imagination about rate cuts will be tightened again. TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a new high, Netflix's growth may slow but its advertising business is being highlighted; these seem unrelated to the crypto world, but they all answer the same question: is money willing to move from large assets to high-risk corners? So I prefer to understand River's rise as an event-driven repricing rather than a pure pump. It hit the window of marginal recovery in risk appetite, while also supported by its own narrative. The linkage between ZEC and ETH is also worth watching; the former represents the emotional repair of the old privacy narrative, the latter is the thermometer of mainstream risk appetite. If ETH can hold steady, strong performers like River will have the soil to continue being chased. The bullish path is very clear: if CPI and PPI don't completely shatter rate cut expectations, funds will continue to look for opportunities in a few highly elastic targets, and River has already proven itself to be the chosen one with its trend. But risks are also hidden here,Before the PPI data was released, the market was already falling; once the data came out, it accelerated sharply downward.
$BTC slid all the way from above 83000 to 80168, $ETH dropped to 2315, and $SOL was the worst, hitting a low of 100.46, barely holding the triple digits. It has now slightly caught its breath, with BTC at 81000, ETH at 2363, and SOL at 102.15.
PPI came in at 6.3%, versus an expected 5.3%, showing inflation hasn't eased at all. CPI just exploded, now PPI follows suit; rate cuts are completely off the table, and the threat of rate hikes is back. This isn't just a single data issue; two consecutive inflation indicators have slapped the market in the face, basically shattering any market hopes for a Fed pivot.
Looking at the market, the first sharp drop has just passed, but the bulls haven't given up yet. Positions haven't decreased much, and funding rates haven't turned extremely negative, indicating leverage hasn't been fully cleared. Bottom-fishing now is just handing out money; even if you want to try, wait until the market volume shrinks and stabilizes.
I'm still holding short positions—not because I'm bearish, but because in this kind of market, both longs and shorts are easily stopped out. Forcing trades now is just giving away money. Let the leverage clear itself first; there's no rush now $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $APR current price 0.04795, the last seven days before unlocking on 10-23, I expect it to continue downward. Almost all the liquidations in the past 24 hours were long positions, 162 trades totaling $130,000, while short positions were basically untouched. Those who couldn't hold during the decline were all on the long side. Contract open interest is near zero, trading is very thin, and no new funds are taking over these chips on the exchange, so selling pressure can only be absorbed by price moving lower. The chart shows the highs steadily moving down, moving averages arranged bearish, consistent with this directional judgment. RSI at 24 looks very low, but the supply unlocking is pressing overhead, oversold conditions can't support a decent rebound, and the low volume on the rebound also indicates weak buying power. In our backtests of unlocking events of similar scale, about three-quarters underperformed the market in the last week, with consistent directional samples before and after. The rhythm this week is roughly a weak rebound followed by further probing below 0.04702. The condition for a bullish reversal is a volume surge to reclaim 0.053, recovering the 24-hour high, indicating someone is willing to absorb this supply ahead of unlocking. No stable direction is seen after the unlocking day, this judgment only applies up to the 23rd.The broth that had been simmering in the kitchen for six hours was kicked over this morning—the kimchi jar over at the Korean side cracked by almost 8%, the two most expensive wagyu cuts from Samsung and SK Hynix were violently thrown to the ground, triggering some kind of "sidecar" mechanism, like having three pots steaming simultaneously on my stove, and the head chef immediately threw over the fire blanket. The miso soup pot next door at Nikkei also spilled over by more than 4%, the reason? Nasdaq first poured a cold splash of one and a half scoops, and American chip stocks have been sour for six consecutive days, like overnight truffle sauce, smelling rancid.
Let me tell you, this isn’t just a simple heat control issue, it’s that the stove’s gas price itself has risen. CPI is scorching hot, AI financing costs are shooting up like chili extract, no matter how beautifully the valuation dish is plated, the customer tastes it and asks, "Where exactly did this money go?" ASML’s equipment orders are still hot, but investors are starting to doubt the payback period of this AI feast—like I bought a top-tier molecular cuisine machine but found it only makes three salads a day, it won’t break even.
The current situation is like the kitchen’s supply chain suddenly breaking: memory competition is two suppliers fighting to pour the same soy sauce into your pot, pushing prices lower and lower; AI credit spreads are soaring, meaning the interest on ingredient credit is so expensive the boss slams the table. This isn’t just the interest rate end re-seasoning the valuation, but the chip profit expectations—the base broth—is being slowly watered down. TSMC’s report card is the next blind tasting test; if it passes, the fire will blaze again; however, the whole street’s restaurants will have to change their menus.
Look at the linkage with $xLLY, it’s the same principle as me mixing a compound sauce—the base flavor follows the market, but the spiciness depends on the AI mainline. Now the main course (mainstream targets) has been taken off the plate, so don’t rush to sprinkle the seasoning (copycats). As for the leveraged contracts, that jar of extra spicy chili, whoever dares to scoop it in now will have their stomach burning through the night. Six consecutive down days in chip stocks equals broth repeatedly reheated, the umami is gone, all that’s left is burnt residue.
My judgment is straightforward: this isn’t a menu change, it’s that the stove’s thermometer is broken, and no one dares to add ingredients. ASML’s orders show the equipment makers still have appetite, but the customers (capital) are already asking "Is this meal worth it?" indicating a battle between pricing power and expectations, not a real collapse in demand. When TSMC’s pot lid is lifted, the whole market is sniffing whether the steam smells fragrant or burnt.
My prep station here is already cleared, leaving only a pot of clear water watching the fire. Whoever dares to pour oil into the pot now should get ready to watch fireworks. #kospidropsnearly8%The anesthesia hasn't worn off yet, but the monitor is already alarming: Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3, superficially showing cardiac output exceeding expectations, but year-on-year it dropped by 2.1%. This isn't a strong heart; it's the heart rate being pushed up by drugs, while stroke volume per beat continues to decline.
I won't make my first cut on delivery numbers. Delivery is the pulse; gross margin is the coronary perfusion pressure. If price cuts to boost volume continue, automotive gross margin will be like the right coronary artery repeatedly scraped by plaques near the proximal segment, with myocardium barely sustained by collateral circulation. Cash flow is circulating blood volume; if blood volume is insufficient, no matter how good the autonomous driving story is, it's just a preoperative talk about long-term survival rates.
Robotaxis and the Optimus project are two donor hearts waiting to be transplanted. Immune rejection, vascular anastomosis, postoperative anticoagulation—each step could cause the recipient to die in the ICU. The market currently treats their imagination as an extracorporeal membrane oxygenator, supplying oxygen to the entire valuation. But an oxygenator doesn't cure disease; it only buys time. What truly determines prognosis is the primary lesion: whether single-vehicle profit margin, free cash flow, and capital expenditure bleeding points are sealed.
The linkage between US stocks and tokens is more like distal perfusion under extracorporeal circulation. US stock risk appetite is the oxygenator; tech weight is the aortic cross-clamp; crypto assets are the fingertips that first turn cold. If Tesla's gross margin doesn't rebound after the earnings report, distal perfusion pressure will drop first, the extremities will cyanose first, then central blood pressure will collapse. Emotional sell-offs are just pain, not the cause; pain can be treated with morphine, but the lesion won't close on its own.
When looking at earnings, don't just look at the sedated curve of earnings per share. Look at the angiography of automotive business gross margin: price cuts are balloon dilation; cost reduction is the stent. If both can't be achieved simultaneously, the vessel will constrict again. If blood gas analysis of cash flow shows elevated lactate, it means tissues are hypoxic; no matter how bright the smart narrative is, it's just a false alarm on the monitor.
The real danger is: delivery volume slightly declines, while management shifts more attention to robotaxis and the Optimus project. This is like a heart transplant team busy developing an artificial heart but forgetting that the donor heart itself is undergoing rejection. The time window is limited; myocardial stunning is reversible, myocardial necrosis is not.
I won't be fooled into the operating room by a single delivery beat exceeding expectations. First look at gross margin, then cash flow, and finally the coronary imaging of the smart vision. If these three can't form an effective collateral circulation, any rebound is just a brief sinus rhythm after defibrillation, with ventricular fibrillation possible at any time.
The arterial waveform on the monitor that is dulling is the lesion to be cut open and explored next. #TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins Is history always astonishingly similar? The "midterm election curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin
Looking back at the past few rounds:
🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm election
🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm election
🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm election
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie:
1️⃣ Institutionalization accelerates: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm.
2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier.
Will there be new changes in 2026?
But I am more concerned about three questions:
1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve?
2️⃣ When BTC falls, is open interest increasing or decreasing?
3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse to make new lows?
If the price falls and open interest decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price then stabilizes and active buying strengthens, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities.
Historical cycles can only provide clues; capital behavior is the verification signal.
In 2026, do you think Bitcoin's cycle bottom is already near? On October 12th, a strong echo core appeared on the radar echo map that did not belong to any known typhoon path—it hovered over the Redmond data center, designated Maia 300.
The current computing power atmospheric circulation pattern is very clear: the leading GPU manufacturers are like a long-standing subtropical high pressure system—deep, stable, and almost unshakable, channeling the global intelligent computing power vapor. This time, Microsoft did not confront the high-pressure ridge head-on but injected a dry cold air mass into the mid-levels—the third-generation self-developed inference chip, directly cutting off the external vapor supply channel.
The data itself is like a sounding curve. Each watt of inference performance improved by about 40%, equivalent to raising the enthalpy of the unit air mass; rack-level throughput reached seven times that of the previous generation, which means the convective available potential energy doubled, and once triggered, the release is nonlinear. But it must be clear: large-scale deployment in 2027 is a three-year climate forecast, not a short-term 72-hour forecast. Among dozens of ensemble forecast members, the path dispersion is still large, and the landing zone may shift westward at any time.
Surface conditions: stock price rose 1.14% to 541.15, hitting a new closing high, yet still below the 52-week intraday extreme. This is a typical inversion layer structure—slow warming near the surface with a cap above suppressing it. To break historical highs requires stronger warm advection or a systemic uplift; local radiative warming alone is insufficient.
Deeper structural changes lie in the rearrangement of the pressure field. The self-developed chip is equivalent to building a local downstream water source, which in the long term will reduce dependence on a single external computing power channel. The cloud capital expenditure pressure gradient will ease accordingly, and the wind field will readjust. Regarding token-linked assets, the driving force is shifting from overall uplift following the computing power high-pressure ridge to a pattern of self-convective precipitation, resulting in more fragmented fluctuations with higher frequency, though single-event amplitude may not be larger.
One more line must be closely watched: the credit spread of the computing power industry. Once the upper-level jet stream turns and financing channels tighten, cutting off warm moist transport, even the strongest convective core will quickly collapse into stratiform clouds. Current observations show the vapor channel is not yet closed, and the low-level jet is still maintaining.
As of this observation, the system is still in its early development stage, the eyewall has not closed, and the outer spiral rainbands are forming. #microsoftmaia300Five Data Bombs Hit at Night: Avoid Heavy Positions Before Data, Wait for Sentiment to Digest
Tonight at 20:30, five data bombs will explode simultaneously. All hit the indicators most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, and the rate hike expectations may be rewritten tonight, causing $BTC and $ETH to shake accordingly.
First, look at the employment data. The previous initial jobless claims were 197,000, with an expectation of 200,000. If it exceeds 200,000, employment weakens, rate cut expectations warm up, which is positive; if below 200,000, the labor market remains tight, which is negative. The threshold is not high, but the direction is crucial.
Next is retail sales. The previous value was 1.1%, with an expectation of 0.3%. Exceeding 0.3% means consumption still has momentum, inflation is prone to rebound, which is negative; below 0.3% means the economy is cooling, which is positive. But since the previous value was very high, even if it falls, an insufficient drop is implicitly negative—the market verbally watches the direction but calculates the magnitude in their hearts.
PPI comes with two lines. The annual rate previous value was 5.4%, expected 5.3%; below expectation means cooling on the production side, positive; above means inflation sticks, negative. The monthly rate previous value was 0.4%, expected 0.5%; the market already expects a rise, if it really hits above 0.5%, upstream inflation rises, high interest rate expectations intensify, hitting hardest.
The New York Fed manufacturing index previous value was 7.6, expected 10.25. Exceeding expectation means a strong economy, negative; below expectation means weakness, positive.
With five data points released simultaneously, volatility is unstoppable. But avoid heavy positions before the data, wait for the first wave of sentiment to digest before acting.
Looking at the market now, $BTC is locked between 80,000 and 88,000, with 88,000 above being the holding cost for entrants over the past two years; every time it pushes up, some take profits and exit; 80,000 below is not only a round number but also a psychological defense line near the ETF holding cost of about 81,500 USD. Breaking below it means the market loses its most recent layer of on-chain support. The fear and greed index dropped directly from 62 to 53 yesterday, now neutral, greed is gone. $ETH looks at 2,350; if broken, look down to the 2,262 area; only recovering above 2,404 stops the bleeding; $SOL 100 is the last defense line since September, breaking it looks toward 95.8. ETFs are also bleeding, with a single-day outflow of 485 million USD on October 7, showing strong institutional risk aversion.
Do not chase highs or sell lows; set stop losses well. Wait for the data to land and let the market make the first move.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Bitcoin prices are fluctuating in different directions.
On-chain data from September 27 to October 15 shows that the two largest wallet groups are moving in opposite directions.
- The group holding 100-1,000 bitcoins has seen a cumulative balance decrease of 51.7% over the past 60 days.
- The group holding 1,000-10,000 bitcoins has gained an additional 56,600 bitcoins.
- The amount of $BTC transferred to Coinbase Prime via medium-sized deposits has decreased by 86.4%, down to 691 BTC.
A decrease in exchange deposits may indicate reduced selling pressure, but this is not enough to conclude that whales are accumulating bitcoin.
Do you think this is a sign of market accumulation, or are there still other variables in the market?#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins Honestly, I'm pretty bullish on Netflix (NFLX) beating earnings when they report on October 20. Wall Street is looking for an EPS of $0.82, but they’ve been building some serious momentum lately.
They beat estimates last quarter ($0.80 vs. $0.79 expected) and have actually topped expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Between the steady subscriber growth, the recent price hikes, and the cash coming in from their ad-supported tier, they just have a lot working in their$GRAM (ex-Toncoin) shows ~203K active addresses a day, but only $2.1M of 24h DEX volume and ~$49M of DeFi TVL under a $3.8B cap. That’s roughly $10 of swaps per active wallet. Wallet growth isn’t turning into depth yet, and thin books cut both ways when flows arrive. My read: neutral for the next two weeks. Levels: $1.35 (24h low) and $1.44 (a week ago). I’d change my mind on a close above $1.44 with STON.fi TVL rising from
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins It is difficult to compete with several large market cap companies that have all decided to prioritize developing their own streaming libraries, do not need to earn much $ from these libraries, and have sufficiently strong balance sheets to far exceed $NFLX's spending.
My view is that I believe the golden age of this iconic company has passed.History is catching the attention of Bitcoin traders again! 👀 📊 Looking Back at the Last Three Midterm Elections: 🔹 2014: Bottom reached 71 days after the election — down 46.7%. 🔹 2018: Bottom reached 39 days after the election — down 50.6%. 🔹 2022: Bottom reached 1 day after the election — down 14.9%. In all three cases, Bitcoin established a new low around the midterm-election period. But will the pattern repeat in 2026? 🎯 Three possibilities to watch: 🐻 Another post-election sell-off c#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins $SNDKB seems to have a consistent direction, but the volume contraction shows no clear stance
$SNDKB is down 4.82% in 24 hours, currently priced at 1,348.24. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour structures are weak, yet the current trading volume is only 0.09 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. The direction is consistent, but participation hasn’t kept up, which is exactly the most debatable point right now.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 5.19% away from the 1-hour support at 1,278.31 and about 5.60% away from the resistance at 1,423.8. Only by comparing these two distances can we see which side requires more evidence. Looking solely at the price change makes it easy to mistake the space already traveled as if it hasn’t started yet.
The opposing side also has clear invalidation lines. Breaking below the 1-hour support at 1,278.31 indicates that short-term support has failed the test; if it continues to break the 4-hour support at 1,278.31, the previous strong or recovery judgment must be rewritten. You can hold your view, but you can’t pretend not to see when the evidence changes.
It’s easier to understand this market move as an equipment acceptance test: running without load doesn’t mean completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to the conclusion. Write your view as a condition so you know where you’re wrong if it fails. Which signal would you rather wait for to judge: that consistent direction is more important, or that volume contraction will quickly cause this move to lose momentum? The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.A major macro negative has arrived
$BTC is going to crash!
First, let's explain what PPI and CPI are
PPI is the Producer Price Index, representing the cost of goods purchased by factories and enterprises for production (producer-side inflation), while CPI is the consumer price index for everyday purchases by the public. PPI leads CPI: when factory costs rise significantly, they are likely to pass the increased costs onto retail prices, driving CPI higher.
This time, the core PPI data for September:
- PPI month-on-month 1.3%, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%, significantly above expectations
- Core PPI month-on-month 0.7%, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%, also off the charts
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
Key point: Not only oil and energy prices are rising, but the core PPI excluding food and energy has also surged sharply.
PPI has risen for two consecutive months, with September data hitting a recent high, indicating a clear rebound in producer-side inflationary pressure.
Implications for the market
1. CPI already exceeded expectations the previous night, and now PPI has exploded; inflation is not a temporary rebound, upstream and downstream inflation are both rising.
2. The market worries: rising corporate costs will be passed on to consumers, so CPI is likely to remain high.
3. Market inference: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will be further delayed, and the possibility of another rate hike remains. #DailyOrbit On Thursday during the daytime, the price of Bitcoin stayed consistently below 82,000, with a volume spike in the morning that pushed it down to around 80,200. After a rebound and correction, it still maintained a low-level range oscillation. Many are waiting for the second news event, the PPI. However, the immediate impact was not significant; after the U.S. stock market opened, it did not completely break below the 80,000 mark. But at this price level, it’s still not very safe for bulls; at least it needs to rise to 83,500. Honestly, if Bitcoin had dropped to 79,500 at that time, I would have been ready to chase it. Although my entry point wasn’t very low, fortunately, the rebound space was sufficient.
Ethereum was a bit too aggressively sold off on Thursday morning. The rebound during the day couldn’t push the price back above the 2,400 mark. Even the evening drop was a passive follow-through. In the short term, it’s considered to be supported by Bitcoin. Currently, the short-term rebound has reached around 2,450, with the center of gravity moving upward. But if Friday’s daytime session moves sideways, then it won’t mean much. Simply put, if there’s no continuation, it will remain in the low region, then use time to exchange for space in preparation for another dip. Let’s watch the overnight volatility first; if it doesn’t rise, then avoid frequent short-term trades for now. $BTC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $ETH Before the PPI data was released, the market was already falling; once the data came out, it accelerated sharply downward.
$BTC slid all the way from above 83000 to 80168, $ETH dropped to 2315, and $SOL was the worst, hitting a low of 100.46, barely holding the triple digits. It has now slightly caught its breath, with BTC at 81000, ETH at 2363, and SOL at 102.15.
PPI came in at 6.3%, versus an expected 5.3%, showing inflation hasn't eased at all. CPI just exploded, now PPI follows suit; rate cuts are completely off the table, and the threat of rate hikes is back. This isn't just a single data issue; two consecutive inflation indicators have slapped the market in the face, basically shattering any market hopes for a Fed pivot.
Looking at the market, the first sharp drop has just passed, but the bulls haven't given up yet. Positions haven't decreased much, and funding rates haven't turned extremely negative, indicating leverage hasn't been fully cleared. Bottom-fishing now is just handing out money; even if you want to try, wait until the market volume shrinks and stabilizes.
I'm still holding short positions—not because I'm bearish, but because in this kind of market, both longs and shorts are easily stopped out. Forcing trades now is just giving away money. Let the leverage clear itself first; there's no rush now $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？