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In 24 hours, the probability of a rate hike in October surged from 20% to 50% — but the real fear isn't this.
Yesterday, CPI exceeded expectations, and the market was still consoling itself with "no rate hike in October." Today, PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, expected 0.5%, which is 2.6 times the forecast. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped directly from 20% to 50% in just 24 hours.
But the real fear isn't the doubling of the rate hike probability.
It's that the August PPI data was revised up from 5.4% to 5.6% — indicating that the previous data was already strong but was just concealed. Inflation didn't "suddenly rebound," it has been there all along; the market just refuses to admit it.
There's also a time window many people haven't noticed: Wash will speak tomorrow at 11:30 AM in Bangkok, and the Fed enters a blackout period on Saturday. That means tomorrow is his last chance to make a public statement. Against the backdrop of such a PPI explosion, if he hints at a possible rate hike in October — BTC could directly go to 78,000.
80,000 was already broken once today, and the support at this level is weaker than expected. Don't catch a falling knife here; wait for Wash's speech to land before making moves #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Not only did they increase, but during the downward test, it was still about one-sixth and one-fifth. The position of the big dip needle was right in the middle of the range. Wealth is sought in risk, and it is also lost in risk.Looking at the three coins together is more useful than just focusing on the price of $BTC alone. My framework (the following prices are quoted in USD on the OKX price page at Beijing time 22:27 on October 15): - $BTC to observe market cycles: I use BTC price fluctuations as a reference to gauge market risk appetite. The current price is about $81,311. The US September CPI released on October 14 Beijing time showed an overall year-on-year increase of 3.7% and a core year-on-year increase of 2.6%, both higher than market expectations of 3.6% and 2.5%, respectively. After the release, BTC briefly fell below $83,000, once dipped below $82,000 to test around $80,000, and has now rebounded to near $81,300. When price volatility is high, I look at it first. - $ETH to observe capital flow: I use the net subscriptions and redemptions of the US spot ETF for ETH to monitor changes in investment channel funds (all data below are for US Eastern trading days). The current price is about $2,376. On October 12 (Monday), there was a net outflow of about $85.4 million — as of that day, there had been 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows (from September 29 to October 12), the longest continuous net outflow since May 11 to June 3, 2026; on October 13, there was a brief net inflow of about $24.84 million, turning positive for one day; on October 14, net outflow resumed at about $130 million (with ETHA alone accounting for about $110 million). The net inflow on October 13 interrupted the previous continuous outflow, but on the 14th it turned back to net outflow. This reflects the US spotWhy did TSMC's stock price plunge despite exceeding Q3 expectations?
On October 15, TSMC $TSM released its Q3 2026 financial report: revenue reached 1.494 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%; net profit was 763.06 billion New Taiwan Dollars, up 68.7% year-on-year, setting a record high and surpassing the market expectation of 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars. However, the impressive results did not boost the stock price; as of now, TSMC has dropped over 5%, trading at $407.
What exactly is the market afraid of?
First, gross margin pressure. Q3 gross margin was 66.4%, down 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, below the market expectation of 66.5%, mainly due to the initial mass production of the 2nm process lowering margins. Management further indicated that overseas fabs in the coming years will dilute gross margin by 3 to 4 percentage points.
Second, the AI rally is fully priced in. TSMC has set profit records for six consecutive quarters; traders want acceleration, not just confirmation. When expectations are maxed out, beating expectations alone is insufficient to drive the stock price higher.
Third, forward guidance reveals caution. Despite strong AI demand, the company clearly stated it is "maintaining caution" in planning for 2027. Rising component prices and macroeconomic uncertainties are pressuring consumer electronics end markets, which the market interprets as a signal that growth may have peaked.
With these three concerns combined, even with hot performance, the market has chosen to vote with its feet.
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 As soon as the US PPI was released, risk appetite took another hit, and concerns about inflation stickiness resurfaced. Wall Street showed mixed gains and losses overnight, while the crypto market fell more directly: BTC at $81,180, down 1.11% in 24 hours; ETH at $2,372, down 2.71%; SOL at $103, down 1.16%. Almost all mainstream assets weakened across the board.
This downturn is still driven by tightening macro expectations. The PPI has made the market more conservative about the rate cut path, with risk-free rates remaining high and discount rates rising, putting pressure first on high-valuation, high-beta assets. Crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve; when liquidity expectations fluctuate, volatility is amplified, and declines generally exceed those of US stocks. Ultimately, it remains the asset class most sensitive to liquidity.
Before a macro turning point appears, don't rush to see rebounds as entry signals. When prices rise, it's more an opportunity to reduce positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC once dropped below $80,000,
$ETH touched around $2,322.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidations amounted to about $977 million, with longs accounting for over 90%.
As of tonight, all the negative news has been released,
Is it time for a rebound?
Liquidation is the result, not the cause,
Prices were first pushed down by macro interest rates,
Then triggered a chain of leveraged forced liquidations,
So a rebound is easy.
However,
The macro pressure hasn't eased:
September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than expected,
The Fed's October rate hike expectations have clearly risen;
The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5%.
ETF funds are still flowing out:
In October, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs are still net outflows overall,
Institutional marginal buying hasn't returned.
Next, watch three signals:
Whether Bitcoin can stand back above $83,000–$86,000 and hold for two consecutive days;
Whether the US spot Bitcoin ETF shifts from net outflow to net inflow;
Whether the 10-year US Treasury yield and Fed rate hike expectations decline.I actually tend to think Tesla's earnings report this quarter will not exceed expectations~
Two reasons:
First, the profit baseline itself is not low.
The EPS threshold is $0.43, which means Tesla not only needs to maintain profits but also needs to achieve sufficient profit improvement among vehicle deliveries, vehicle gross margin, energy business, and other income.
Second, the automotive business remains the core variable.
Tesla's valuation narrative increasingly relies on Robotaxi, FSD, AI, and energy business, but whether this earnings report "exceeds expectations" still primarily depends on the accounting profit for the quarter. Future business stories may not directly translate into this quarter's EPS.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Macro Background: This Time Is Different
The core driver of this round of decline is macroeconomic factors, not issues within the crypto or tech industries themselves. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%; month-over-month it increased 0.6%, marking the largest rise in nearly five months. Last month, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike in three years, and hinted at possible further increases in the coming months. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly surged above 5.3%.
In a rising interest rate environment, all non-yielding assets (cryptocurrencies) and high-valuation growth stocks (AI concepts) face valuation reappraisal. This is not a "too much decline will lead to a rebound" issue, but a "pricing anchor is shifting" issue. Until the Federal Reserve's policy path is clear, any rebound may be temporary $BTC $ETH $BTC #CoreWeave stock and bond both fall, CEO responds to financing concerns
The leader has something to say
CoreWeave experienced a double hit in stocks and bonds yesterday. The stock price dropped 15.46%, and the yield on 2032 bonds broke 15%. What is the market worried about? It carries $52.1 billion in debt and lease liabilities. Although the order backlog exceeds 100 billion, turning orders into revenue requires building data centers and delivering computing power, which involves time and cost.
The CEO said the market is irrational and that long-term orders are sufficient to repay debt. But with both stock and bond markets falling together, the reassurance actually highlights financing pressure. Orders are on paper, but cash flow is real. In a high interest rate environment, highly leveraged AI infrastructure companies are very vulnerable.
This is indirectly negative for crypto. If AI infrastructure financing encounters problems, risk appetite will shrink, putting pressure on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL. Additionally, CPI exceeded expectations, inflation rose for three consecutive months, rate hike expectations increased, US Treasury yields remain high, and macro pressures persist. $BTC $ETH $SOL
I have already closed my long position at 84,000, locking in a profit of 1,200 points, and am now in cash. I’m not in a hurry to go long again; I’ll wait for the market to digest before deciding. Support below is at 80,000; holding 82,000 means consolidation. No chasing highs or panic selling, just set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.Putting the daily charts of $SOL and $BTC side by side for the past 59 days, SOL acts like a magnifying glass for BTC, amplifying the rise and fall by roughly the same multiple in both directions.
During the 32 days when BTC rose, BTC averaged a 1.8% increase, while SOL averaged a 2.66% increase, about 1.5 times that of BTC, with SOL outperforming BTC on 22 of those days. During the 27 days when BTC fell, BTC averaged a 1.25% decline, and SOL averaged a 1.94% decline, also about 1.5 times.
This multiple was most evident from August 17 to September 25. BTC rose 30.3%, while SOL rose 60.7%, exactly doubling.
From the close on October 4 until now, BTC dropped from 86530 to 80578, a 6.9% decline, while SOL fell from 121.6 to 101.91, a 16.2% drop. During this period, SOL’s decline exceeded the average multiple. The SOL to BTC price ratio is 0.001265, with a 59-day low of 0.001178 on August 17, a high of 0.001452 on September 25, and currently near the lower boundary.
The magnifying glass effect applies equally to both the upward and downward halves, with the same multiple. Those holding SOL consider holding BTC’s daily close above 80,000 as the condition for holding; if that level holds, the magnified effect is on the rising half.$BTC Don't rush to bottom-fish! 80,000 is the last cover-up.
Tonight PPI didn't help, and the US stock market opening didn't save it either; the downtrend keeps pressing down. This recent dip almost pierced through 80,000. Bulls are now stubbornly holding this position.
PPI was useless, US stocks didn't save it, what does that mean? This isn't an emotional sell-off, it's a trend sell-off. The market is voting with its feet; the negative news hasn't been fully digested. More importantly, there's a speech by Powell tomorrow night. If his tone is hawkish, 80,000 will most likely not hold. When that happens, once the downside opens up, the bloodied chips probably won't see a decent recovery until the midterm elections.
My advice is simple: don't be free fodder now. I won't bottom-fish at this level for one reason: too many negatives, sentiment hasn't cleared, rushing in is gambling on luck, not trading.
Want to bottom-fish? Wait for a confirmed break below 80,000 and then see the market reaction.
Want to short? A confirmed break below 80,000 is a relatively certain opportunity.
Want to hold your position? Tomorrow is Friday, Powell's speech is crucial, liquidity is poor over the weekend, holding halfway up the mountain might mean holding all the way to next Monday, to the point of doubting your life.
For contracts, when there's no market, one word: wait. Save your bullets, don't rush in blindly to be fodder, or you won't even be able to cry later. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $SPCX $BTC $SOL SPCX fell from $225 to just over $100, has now bounced back to 176, then dropped again to 144, a cumulative decline of 36%. Stop convincing yourself with “Starship, Mars, AI.” Market pricing has shifted to AI and Starlink revenue; whenever AI fluctuates, it drops; FAA has initiated environmental assessments, regulatory investigations continue; about 7% of shares will unlock on October 26, creating selling pressure; ARK has already been reducing holdings. Even more brutal is the leverage: whales with 3x leverage are underwater by 84%, and those with 20x leverage have losses exceeding their principal. Valuation based on optimistic 2027 sales multiples is still nearly 19x, and the company is still losing money. Institutions are selling, are you buying? If your only reason to buy is “faith,” then don’t buy. The crash is not a chance to get in; it’s the market liquidating an overextended future. Don’t average down; first ask: does your original buying logic still hold? If not, cut losses; if you don’t understand, then learn. Staying alive is more important than faith.
#SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？ Live update after an hour and a half of passing storm: hail is easing, wind direction unchanged ⛈️
The strong convective storm hit right on schedule at 8:30. Current status: hail has fallen, wind has blown, and the sky hasn't cleared yet. I predicted BTC would break below 80,000, and it really happened!
First, the hail damage report 🧊. In this past hour, the entire network lost 32.45 million, with 90% hitting the bulls. In BTC contracts, 12.99 million was wiped out, with longs accounting for 12.69 million; ETH lost 3.08 million, SOL lost 770,000. Extending to 24 hours, the total damage is 911 million, involving 170,000 people, with 91.5% being longs.
Next, the wind direction 💨. On the contract market for the three brothers, money is still flowing out: BTC net outflow of 166 million, SOL net outflow of 14.2 million, ETH outflow of 8.49 million. Spot market is also bleeding out, with bears dominating. The rain hasn't stopped, so don't put away your umbrella yet.
Interestingly, the hail is getting smaller. Compared to previous 4-hour 57.63 million and 12-hour 616 million, the momentum is clearly weaker—the first wave of liquidations has basically been absorbed. But funding rates are still positive; I saw on OKEx that ETH positions even increased by 4.58%, someone is bottom-fishing in the hailstorm. The awkward part: the bottom they’re catching now is exactly the raw material for the next hailstorm.
So the warning is not lifted yet. The hail has passed, but the wind direction hasn't changed, and money is still flowing out. At 8:30 I said to watch from the sidelines, and my view remains: wait for the wind to stop before acting, don’t pick up umbrellas in the hail.
Next hail report or clear skies depends on whether money flows back. Rainy days keep guests, sunny days keep people or money—time will tell ✊.Shorted near $PUMP 0.0051, the 12-hour chart has been steadily declining from the 0.0067 high, with selling pressure never stopping. It dropped over 7 points intraday, with volume quite large, and the buying side couldn't hold at all. It's a Meme coin, named PUMP but the price hasn't pumped at all; when sentiment fades, it drops even harder than altcoins. Just follow the trend and short it.
Currently around 0.00437, the floating profit percentage looks intimidating at over 700%, but it's a small position 50x trial, so the actual profit is just pocket money. Posting the chart is purely to record the market feeling. The previous low of 0.004235 was just tested, and this area tends to have profit-taking that rushes out early; the market also shows some signs of volume contraction and stabilization.
I don't like to fight with 50x leverage; Meme coins can spike back anytime. I'm most likely preparing to take profits. It's better to run fast than to hold stubbornly; you can never sell at the lowest, but you just need to leave before you "feel a rebound coming."Stimulus, semiconductors have sharply corrected again
With interest rate hike expectations stepping up another notch, gold surprisingly hasn't dropped much tonight, even looking a bit firm, in stark contrast to last night's CPI plunge
A closer look reveals it's still related to safe-haven demand
1. Long-term US Treasury yields have recently plummeted (the 10-year is about to fall below 5 percentage points), with strong demand for US Treasuries
2. Tech stocks have plunged, and the US stock market's seven sisters are also under valuation pressure
3. The crypto industry is collectively declining with almost no decent rebound
So the real idea is only one: part of the funds fleeing the AI tech sector have gone into government bonds, and another part has moved into gold
As of press time, spot gold is temporarily quoted at 4150
But this is only a temporary sign; whether 4000 is the bottom and if a reversal can happen now still needs time to verify #CPI Post-Release Observation of Funds Weakening in Nasdaq and Crypto Assets
On the evening of Beijing time, CPI data was released, with the Nasdaq and crypto assets declining simultaneously, and U.S. Treasury yields rising. The synchronous movement of these two asset classes does not imply causation but reflects a synchronized contraction of risk capital under unified interest rate expectations. Capital rotates among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and crypto assets: when interest rate expectations rise, high-volatility assets are reduced first, and liquidity preference shifts toward fixed income.
I suffered losses in this round of the market, with years of savings diminished. Lacking inherent support, I was eager to change my situation through trading, which led to impatience and insufficient execution. After reviewing, I realized the root problem was my own cognition, not the market. To sustain my living, I have taken on short-term physical work to earn living expenses, with no safety net, even having to time my emotional breakdowns. Although trading did not bring profits, this experience is also a kind of gain, and I will adjust my mindset and continue moving forward.
If subsequent Federal Reserve officials' speeches significantly shift toward easing, this linked observation logic will become invalid.
$SOL $BTC $ZEC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
Once this data came out, I guess many people felt a sudden jolt in their hearts.
The US September PPI year-on-year directly hit 6.3%, while the market expected only 5.3%, and month-on-month 1.3%, with an expectation of just 0.5%. Core PPI was the same, all exceeding expectations. Plus the previous CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, also higher than expected. Two consecutive inflation data points are on the hot side, indicating that price pressures have not eased at all.
Once the data came out, expectations for rate hikes within the year rose again. But look at those officials, still the same as always, each saying their own thing. Daly said rate hikes might be necessary but not urgent. Goolsbee said we still need to see more data. To be frank, they themselves haven't decided what to do next. Now the whole market is focused on one person, Waller. Tomorrow morning he will have a dialogue with the IMF Managing Director at the IMF annual meeting, and the market wants to hear his stance on the future interest rate path.
What impact does this have?
First, short-term pressure is certain. Inflation is on the hot side, rate hike expectations are heating up, so the dollar and US Treasury yields will be pushed up, and risk assets will get hit. Bitcoin dropped 1% today, that's the logic. Off-exchange money is currently afraid to move at all, all waiting for Waller to speak.
Second, don't just focus on whether to hike rates or not. Even if no hike happens, as long as inflation doesn't come down, long-term rates won't fall, and funding costs will remain high. For Bitcoin to break out into a one-sided trend, what it lacks is fresh liquidity, not a "no rate hike" slogan. At this position, it's hard to go up or down, it's just grinding.
What do you think? $BTC Falling for three days, but the funding rate still clings above zero: Bulls are stubborn, but weak-handed
Conclusion first for tonight: The way it has fallen these three days is not panic, but a dull knife cutting flesh.
BTC 80,548, down 2.38% in 24h, lowest hit 80,228, just a breath away from 80,000. ETH 2,354, down 4.6%, 2400 lost. SOL 101.93, even 100 is hanging by a thread.
But the funding rate surprised me: BTC 0.0038%, ETH 0.0044%, all just above zero, stubbornly not turning negative. Three consecutive days of decline, yet bulls still pay interest on their positions.
In plain terms, bulls are stubborn: whether admitting mistakes or not, they hold their positions firmly; but 0.0038% is less than half of the normal 0.01%, so they really dare not add positions. Open interest of 30,800 BTC remains unchanged, no liquidations, no bottom-fishing, the whole market is waiting for a reason.
Unfortunately, today's reasons are bearish: ETF net outflow of 261 million in one day, Wash is about to engage with the Fed on communication framework again, interest rate expectations lose visibility, risk assets take the hit first.
Outlook: From tonight to tomorrow morning, only one line matters, 80,228. If it breaks below and funding rate turns negative, bulls admit defeat, the 80,000 level will be tested; if it holds and funding rate rises, look for a rebound to 81,600. Falsification: If BTC closes back above 82,200 tonight and ETH returns to 2,450, my bearish view is invalid, and I will admit my mistake in tomorrow's opening.
The 80,000 level, do you think it can hold?#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins For those trading on leverage, today shift your focus away from the coin price and take a look at oil. The International Energy Agency has just announced a comprehensive release of 100 million barrels of unused crude oil, plus an urgent release of 20 million barrels of diesel. Including the release in March, the total scale exceeds 400 million barrels, effectively flooding the market from the supply side. When oil prices are pushed down, the most direct effect is a relief in inflation expectations. Why does this matter to $BTC? In recent months, the market has translated geopolitical conflicts and rising oil prices into the narrative of "sticky inflation and the Fed needing to keep raising rates," which has kept rate hike expectations suppressing risk assets. Now that the supply side is proactively easing pressure, if oil prices can stabilize and trend downward, the macroeconomic leash holding back crypto will loosen a notch. Of course, this is a slow-moving factor; don’t expect it to reflect in the market today. Which do you believe more: that inflation can truly cool down, or that central banks will keep talking tough to the end? USDC issued $8.6 billion over seven days but redeemed even more: $10.1 billion. Circle's transparency data as of October 12 shows a net decrease in circulation of $1.5 billion, with a balance of $72.7 billion. This is the weekly statistic, not a single-day outflow.
Issuance is exchanging dollars for new USDC, while redemption returns the coins in exchange for dollars. Therefore, only looking at the $8.6 billion "new issuance" misses the larger reverse capital flow. The total amount of USDC available for on-chain payments, trading, and lending has actually shrunk.
For platforms and users relying on USDC turnover, if net redemptions continue and other funds do not replenish, available liquidity may tighten. However, this table does not specify which exchanges the funds came from, where they ultimately went, nor does it prove holders sold other crypto assets.
Next, issuance and redemption should be viewed together, along with monitoring exchange balances, lending supply and demand, and exchange price spreads. Supply reduction alone cannot determine that all stablecoin funds are withdrawing, nor can it be directly converted into an equivalent amount of coin sales.
Source and illustration: Circle transparency original page, data as of 10/12; reviewed at 22:07 Beijing time on 10/15, amounts are rounded values from the page. Below is the USDC/USDT spot trading entry.
https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/usdc-usdt$ETH Right now, everyone is busy guessing where the bottom is, but institutions are not panicking at all. I dug into yesterday's ETF data and saw a very unusual signal
First, look at BTC: there was a net outflow of 31.44 million yesterday, BlackRock sold 13.34 million, and Fidelity sold 18.36 million. They just added over 20 million the day before, then completely exited the next day. In other words, institutions were only testing the waters and immediately pulled back to observe after the CPI bearish news came out
Now look at ETH: net outflow was only 51,900, with Grayscale and BlackRock selling slightly, almost unchanged. The price dropped to 2315, and institutions neither bottom-fished nor dumped; they are all waiting and watching for direction
Here’s my take: institutions are not panicking or selling off; they are patiently waiting for opportunities. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is already weakening. This drop is essentially a long liquidation triggering more long liquidations. SOL’s long-short ratio is still 2.68, meaning long positions haven’t been fully cleared yet, and the chain reaction of liquidations is not over
I am still currently out of position. Bottom-fishing recklessly in this market is pure luck. I will wait until the liquidation is mostly done and the market truly stabilizes before making a move on $ETH
Key support levels to note: BTC 80000 / 78000, ETH 2300 / 2200, SOL 100 / 95$SNDK This wave of short positions is stuffed full, with a 1378% floating profit behind a 75x tightrope walk. On the macro side, US Treasury yields are soaring, crypto ETFs see daily net outflows, the major market is struggling, and small coins have no chance. Once the news of Changxin G5 mass production came out, the logic of overseas storage monopoly began to shake, SanDisk dropped sharply from a high position, and this on-chain target keeps sliding down uncontrollably.
Looking at the market, shorts from 1594 to 1301, all moving averages have dead crosses, and the rebound hits the midline then falls again. The 1300 integer level is a battleground between bulls and bears; if it breaks, there really won’t be much buying support below. Volume expands on the drop and shrinks on the rebound, a typical distribution structure. The whales here are also scheming, some are buying while others are dumping.
My current operation is very rough: I closed most positions to lock in profits and moved the stop loss to the entry price. The remaining positions are left to fly; if volume surges and it rises back to 1594, I’ll exit. At 75x leverage at this level, I’d rather earn less than get hit; a big bullish candle at a low point can wipe out half a month’s profits. $ZEC $BTC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Don't just look at $BTC breaking 80,000 or $ETH dropping 5% in isolation this morning. Look up at the traditional markets: the Nasdaq opened down over 1%, AMD, Intel, and Marvell all dropped more than 5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost two trillion in seven days, and even SpaceX fell 5%. This isn't some internal issue within the crypto circle; it's the entire risk asset class deleveraging in sync. At times like this, crypto's decline is essentially being treated as high beta tech stocks being sold off. Understanding this layer helps you see why simply focusing on on-chain data or capital flow to judge direction fails: money is being pulled out from the macro side. When the risk appetite engine stalls, don't expect any coin to remain unscathed. $ETH is the weakest today because it's the highest beta leg taking the first hit. Do you think this round of deleveraging is done?BTC fell below 80,000, 185,000 people liquidated 982 million, but one data point is rising against the trend.
First, look at this contrast.
In the past 24 hours, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,209 coins, Ethereum ETFs a net outflow of 38,915 coins, with a 7-day cumulative outflow of 5,250 BTC and 133,537 ETH. SOL ETFs have been bleeding for 8 consecutive trading days, with 1.3 million running off again on Wednesday. BlackRock's ETHA had a single-day outflow of 110 million, and Fidelity's FBTC outflow was 153 million.
ETFs are running.
But on-chain whales are buying. The total holdings of Bitcoin on-chain whales rose to 3.03 million coins, with the monthly growth rate the fastest since February this year. Price falls, whales buy; this divergence has lasted for some time.
Now look at the liquidation structure. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 982 million USD, 185,000 people were liquidated, over 90% were long positions. This is not institutions dumping, but long leverage stampede. BTC's short-term strong support is at 81,873, ETH at 2,405, SOL between 100 USD and the 200-day moving average of 97.95.
I believe ETF outflows reflect sentiment, whale accumulation is the fact. The biggest enemy in the market now is not institutions, but the leverage piled up by the bulls themselves. Before liquidation data clears, chasing longs is just fueling others.
BTC broke 80,000, the next level to watch is 78,000. If ETH can't hold 2,405, then 2,400 is just paper-thin. Whether SOL can hold 100 determines if it is a correction or turning bearish. $DOGE perpetual, 50x short position opened at 0.08076 and closed at 0.07842, floating profit +144.87%. Actual drop about 2.89% (0.00234 points), profit entirely amplified by 50x leverage.
Currently 0.07842 is near short-term support, chasing shorts has very low cost-effectiveness, a slight rebound can easily trigger stop orders. Operationally, withdraw principal first, set break-even stop loss on the base position and let it float.
Those who haven't entered yet, don't rush, wait for a rebound near 0.08076 to confirm resistance before acting. 50x floating profit of 144% carries extremely high risk if not secured, it looks like doubling but can be given back anytime, protect profits, don't be greedy. $BTC $ETH Currently, it seems that the 80,000 level still has quite a few people watching it as support. Previous analysis also suggested that in the fourth quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate between 80,000 and 90,000, with the area around 80,000 to 82,000 possibly being a good accumulation zone. If the subsequent CPI data does not worsen further, the Middle East situation cools down a bit, and ETF outflows stop, the price has a chance to rebound first to around 85,000 to 87,000 to test resistance. But don't expect a new high immediately—the high point this year was around September when it surged past about 96,000, and there is still a considerable distance from last October's high of over 120,000. Market sentiment is clearly much more cautious.With this CPI cut, the September data is tougher than everyone expected, and core inflation has also turned back. Many were waiting for the "bad news to be fully priced in" to buy the dip, but the market didn’t even bother to rebound and just kept drifting down.
The real trouble isn’t how much Bitcoin has already dropped, but that this downtrend doesn’t seem to be over yet. If 80000 is effectively broken, market sentiment will likely collapse further, and then it depends on whether the 76000 area can hold.
The logic isn’t complicated: inflation isn’t coming down, so rate cuts will have to be delayed, funding costs won’t decrease, and off-exchange money won’t dare to rush in recklessly. This is what risk assets fear most — the faucet is tightened, and no one can jump around.
So for now, I’m not bottom-fishing or guessing the bottom. First, let’s see if it can stabilize above 80000, then check if the rebound has volume. Before there’s a stop-loss signal, controlling your hands is more important than anything else; losing less is earning more.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has lost over two trillion dollars in market value over seven trading days. This morning, storage leaders like Samsung and Hynix continue to take hits, and the screen is full of panic. But what I focus on is never market sentiment, but supply and demand. The Micron CEO just said a few days ago that they have locked in $150 billion in long-term orders, and storage will be tighter in the next two years than this year; Samsung and Toshiba are also cutting production capacity to maintain prices. Prices are being hammered down by sentiment, but the fundamentals are tightening. This divergence is exactly where I am willing to bet. The bet on a rebound after overselling is not about catching the absolute bottom, but betting that sentiment is running ahead of fundamentals. $BTC is dropping along with risk assets, but for the storage sector, I am watching a different clock. What do you think about this semiconductor sell-off? Is it a trend reversal or a mistaken sell-off? The huge macro data block released today in the US does not bring positivity to risk asset markets. We highlight the most important data and analyze them one by one. KEY POINT - producer inflation in the US has sharply accelerated. Considering yesterday's consumer inflation data, this worsens the situation. Meanwhile, retail sales exceeded forecasts, but this is a weak consolation. Overall, for the Fed, this is an unpleasant combination that strengthens the arguments for further rate hikes. In total, today there were immediately publishedChain reaction! Both PPI and retail sales strengthen, market logic has changed!
The just-released PPI has surged dramatically!
Year-on-year 6.3%, higher than the expected 5.3% and previous 5.4%.
Month-on-month even surged 1.3%, nearly three times the expectation!
More importantly, the simultaneously released retail data unexpectedly beat expectations.
This shows that US consumer resilience remains, and purchasing power is still supporting the economy.
With this data out, the Federal Reserve now has the confidence to remain hawkish.
The core driver of this inflation rebound is oil prices.
Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, which means October inflation will likely be higher than September.
Of course, we must be objective:
Although a recession is not seen in the short term, labor and some consumption data have shown signs of weakness; economic resilience does not equal strength.
CME's previous highest rate hike probability reached 55%, and with this PPI release, it may further rise, approaching 60%.
The market now needs to reprice: will there be another rate hike in December?
Next, gold, Bitcoin, US Treasuries, and the US dollar all need to have their expectations reassessed.
Traders, be sure not to gamble based on the old rate cut script!
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $ETH Two big inflation blows shattered the rate cut fantasy.
① CPI strikes first: September CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, exceeding the expected 3.6%, gasoline surged 9.1% in a single month, core CPI 2.6% also beat expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped overnight from 22% to nearly 50%.
② PPI delivers another hit: September PPI year-on-year 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, both crushing expectations (5.3%/0.5%), the strongest since the end of 2022. Upstream price increases are starting to pass downstream, confirming inflation stickiness.
③ Pain in the crypto world: Bitcoin fell below 81,000, once dipping to 80,200; ETH plunged 6% to around 2,350. Nearly $1 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions—those chasing longs were collectively wiped out by a single data point. Spot ETFs saw simultaneous net outflows.
Remember this chain: Inflation exceeds expectations → rate hike expectations heat up → US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens → funds exit high-volatility assets. Bitcoin is no longer a "digital gold" safe haven; it is the most elastic link in global interest rate trading.
The real judgment day is the FOMC on October 27-28. Whether the 80,000 level holds is more important than any single bullish candle. Control your hands, don’t be part of the 90%. $BTC #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 BTC hits new lows again! The real danger in this downturn is not the price itself, but that global capital is repricing risk.
US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with inflation exceeding expectations reigniting concerns about further Fed rate hikes. The South Korean stock market plunged, global tech stocks are under pressure, and the crypto market has not been spared.
According to a previous report by The Block, the crypto market's 24-hour liquidation volume once reached about $951 million, with longs accounting for about $876 million. This indicates that this adjustment is not just spot selling but also significant leverage liquidation.
I am currently focusing on two signals: first, whether BTC can quickly recover after breaking the previous low; second, whether open interest stops abnormal contraction when the price stabilizes.
If the rebound only shows price increases without volume and capital support, the short-term recovery may still just be a pullback within a downtrend.
What really matters is not guessing the bottom, but when the market will stop making continuous new lows.
#BTC #Bitcoin #cryptocurrencyWriting
$CORE The 81 million token drop in circulating supply likely stems from excess tokens burned during the early September hard fork, per public data. Data platforms may have only recently updated their stats to reflect this, rather than indicating a new burn by the project team in October.
Clarify timing and uncertainty
Make this post more concise
Adopt a more cautious market tone #DailyOrbit #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC maintains its 2026 capital expenditure plan of $60-64 billion, with capital investment reaching $13.8 billion this quarter alone. This implies that Q4 single-quarter capital expenditure will increase by 67%-103% year-over-year to $19.3-23.4 billion, fully matching the explosive growth in AI computing power demand. Meanwhile, the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 44%, exceeding the previous expectation of "slightly above 40%". The Q4 revenue guidance is $52.3-54.3 billion, significantly better than the market consensus of $51 billion, corresponding to a year-over-year growth rate exceeding 55%.
However, the market-anticipated core operating guidance for 2027 was not explicitly released in this earnings report. The optimistic signals widely expected by institutions—"full-year revenue growth exceeding 40% and capital expenditure reaching $85 billion"—did not materialize, which somewhat disappointed the capital market. This precisely reflects TSMC's industrial nature as the "chain leader" of the industry chain: it does not deliberately "paint a rosy picture" for the capital market through overly optimistic guidance, but bases its core decisions on actual orders and expansion pace, allocating CoWoS advanced packaging capacity through a quota system rather than aggressively raising prices to impact upstream and downstream of the industry chain, thereby maintaining overall stability of the global AI computing power supply chain.The quieter the market, the more it indicates that funds are all waiting for tonight's answer.
Currently, BTC, ETH, and OKB are showing little volatility, and the market is not rushing to choose a direction.
The core variable behind this is not the candlestick chart, but the macro environment.
Oil prices are still fluctuating near high levels, and inflationary pressure has not completely subsided.
The market generally expects the September CPI year-over-year to be about 3.6%.
But the real key is not the CPI itself, but whether the core CPI can continue to cool down.
If core inflation remains stubborn, the market may raise expectations for a December rate hike again, and risk assets could face short-term pressure once more. Focus on two data points: if the core CPI month-over-month is above 0.3% and the year-over-year continues to rise, expectations for rate cuts will be completely extinguished; conversely, if core inflation softens, risk appetite recovery will drive funds to flow back.
$BTC now seems more like it is waiting for macro confirmation; a breakout requires fund support. Last night, the spot ETF still saw a net inflow of $176 million, indicating institutional buying has not disappeared, but if the price falls below the average holding cost of ETF investors, it may trigger additional redemption pressure.
$ETH is more sensitive to funds; if rate hike expectations heat up, the pressure could be more obvious. Ethereum spot ETFs have had net outflows for several consecutive days, combined with BTC's structural pressure, it is highly likely that volatility will increase before tonight's data release, and the risk of one-sided chasing is not small.
If tonight's CPI is substantially negative, ETH breaking below 2400 could trigger the next round of clearing; conversely, if the data cools down, BTC and ETH are expected to see a round of sentiment recovery. The real crash happened a week after the election
On November 6, 2018, $BTC barely moved around 6400.
The real drop happened a week after the election, from 6400 down to 5544.
How this number is calculated:
From the election day at 6400 down to the lowest at 3201, a retracement of about 45.5%.
The drop wasn’t on election day, but in the month following the election.
What’s different this time:
Currently, spot ETFs and listed companies together hold over 2.57 million $BTC.
In 2018, the market was almost all retail and leverage; now institutions are buying at the bottom.
But policy is another matter.
Hardline crypto lawmakers may take control of the Financial Services Committee.
This uncertainty is more worth watching than the market on election day itself.
History won’t repeat exactly, but it will rhyme.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC Tonight at 20:30, 5 major shocks will hit simultaneously, and $BTC is holding its breath at the 80,000 threshold.
Brothers, let's first talk about the current situation.
$BTC is currently priced around $81,000, down 3% in 24 hours. Ethereum is even worse, down over 5.5%, trading near $2,362. Across the entire network, 185,000 liquidations occurred in 24 hours, totaling $982 million, with over 90% being long positions liquidated. As I write this, $BTC had dipped to $80,230 an hour ago but barely pulled back. Honestly, longs at this level have already been stripped by the market.
Why such a drop?
Last night, CPI already triggered a shockwave. September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, core CPI month-over-month 0.3%, year-over-year 2.6%, all exceeding expectations. Gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, and core items like housing and transportation are also rising. The market’s previous narrative that "energy shocks are one-off and core inflation will naturally fall" has been directly contradicted by this data.
The result: the probability of a Fed rate hike in October jumped from 20% to 53.7% after the CPI release. Although later on Polymarket the odds of no change returned to 79%, the hawkish expectations can no longer be suppressed. The market is betting on whether the Fed will act in October.
The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.9%, marking one of the worst single-day performances since July. Risk assets are all taking hits; the crypto market is not fighting alone.
Now, about tonight at 20:30, five data points will be released simultaneously, each more critical than the last:
① Initial Jobless Claims (previous 197,000, expected 200,000)
Above 200,000 → weakening employment → favorable for rate cuts → bullish for crypto. Below 200,000 → strong employment → no reason for Fed to ease → bearish. This data is prone to surprises; the previous value was already very low. If it falls below expectations, $BTC likely won’t hold 80,000.
② September Retail Sales MoM (previous 1.10%, expected 0.30%)
The previous 1.1% was a high base; the market expects a significant cooldown. But note: if the release is above 0.5%, it indicates consumer resilience far beyond expectations, the overheating narrative returns, rate hike expectations surge, and crypto comes under pressure. If below 0.3%, consumer weakness → recession fears rise → stronger rate cut expectations → bullish for crypto. This is not a simple "above expectations bearish, below expectations bullish" scenario; the key is how the market interprets the degree of cooling—too little cooling is a hidden bearish signal, too much raises recession fears.
③ PPI YoY (previous 5.40%, expected 5.3%)
PPI is a precursor to CPI. CPI already shocked; if PPI is also above 5.3%, it means upstream inflation pressure hasn’t eased, reinforcing the narrative that "inflation won’t come down." This is a direct blow to $BTC.
④ PPI MoM (previous 0.40%, expected 0.50%) — this is tonight’s biggest shock
The month-over-month expectation is higher than last month, indicating the market anticipates upstream inflation is accelerating again. If the release is ≥0.5%, combined with yesterday’s CPI surprise, the market will immediately push the "Fed must continue hiking" script to the forefront. $BTC’s attempt to break 80,000 will be fiercer than last night. This data’s impact is greater than the previous four combined.
⑤ New York Fed Manufacturing Index (previous 7.6, expected 10.25)
Regional manufacturing sentiment. The expectation is significantly higher than the previous value; if it reaches above 10.25, it indicates the economy remains strong, bearish for rate cut expectations. Below expectations is the opposite.
Let’s talk about the funding side — there’s an interesting divergence here.
ETFs are running out, but whales are buying. $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million yesterday, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading with $153 million outflow in a single day. But on-chain data shows large holders’ total $BTC holdings increased to 3.03 million coins. ETFs are withdrawing, whales are accumulating — historically, this divergence often appears near phase bottoms but doesn’t mean an immediate reversal.
Regarding funding rates, $BTC perpetual contract rates are positive but extremely low, only 0.0015% per 8 hours. The long-short ratio still favors longs (63.9% long), indicating market sentiment hasn’t fully turned bearish; long positions remain crowded. This means if tonight’s data is bearish again, there’s still plenty of fuel for liquidations.
What about technicals?
At the $81,000 level, $BTC has tested this support three times on October 9, 12, and 15. Repeatedly testing the same support either means bottoming or preparing to break. Analyst Murphy points out that swing chips are gradually clearing out. But Bitget analyst Lewis Huang warns that if the short-term support at $81,300 breaks and the downtrend continues, the risk of further decline increases. Arthur Hayes remains calm, publicly bullish on $BTC and $ETH, reasoning that "ultimately, trillions of dollars in bailouts will appear." Well, that logic is very Hayes.
How to respond tonight?
If data is overall hawkish (PPI ≥ 0.5%, retail ≥ 0.5%, initial claims < 200,000): $BTC will likely test the 80,000 whole number level; if broken, look for a liquidation cluster near 78,000. Don’t rush to bottom-fish.
If data is overall dovish (PPI < 0.5%, retail < 0.3%, initial claims > 200,000): support near 81,000 will be confirmed; the first rebound target is 83,000–84,000, but the resistance at 88,000 will be hard to break in the short term.
If data is mixed (most likely scenario): the market will first spike up and down to clear leverage, then return to consolidation. This kind of market is the most annoying but also the most common. Controlling your hands is more important than anything.
Honestly speaking: 185,000 liquidations and $982 million evaporated, the market just went through a bloody deleveraging round. If tonight’s data brings another round of bearishness, whether 80,000 can hold is really uncertain. But on the flip side, the CPI surprise has already been partly digested by the market; if tonight’s PPI isn’t more hawkish than expected, a "bearish exhaustion" rebound might occur.
Anyway, tonight at 20:30, control your positions well, don’t gamble on data with leverage, survival is more important than anything.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The "Hype" and "Real Value" of On-Chain Stocks
The SEC has opened a conditional pilot program for tokenized stocks, causing $UNI to surge significantly. But beyond the price of the coin, what’s more worth pondering is that traditional stocks are attempting to enter the on-chain trading ecosystem.
Regulatory approval does not equal business realization. Tokenized stocks must satisfy holder rights, trading venues, and information disclosure requirements; simply issuing a token does not represent a share of Apple or Nvidia. For DeFi, this might be a new market; for ordinary traders, the biggest pitfall is mistaking policy progress for project revenue.
Between policy announcements and real revenue lies asset compliance, user education, and liquidity building. How far this track can go depends on whether there are real assets, real users, and real transactions. After the hype fades, the only metric worth watching is how much actual trading volume remains on-chain.
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21%
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Capital Flow: The Biggest Contradiction
ETFs are selling, whales are buying.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of about $859 million over nearly 6 trading days, with a single-day outflow of $150.5 million on October 14 alone. However, CryptoQuant data shows that on-chain whale holdings have risen to 3.03 million BTC, marking the fastest monthly growth since February this year. The statistical scopes of ETFs and whales differ, but the opposing directions are real.
Another signal to watch: a certain whale/institution has sold a total of 1,312.1 BTC (about $109 million) over the past 4 days, completely reallocating to buy 43,275 ETH. Capital is rotating from BTC to ETH. $BTC $ETH $SOL #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Just checked the market, wow, BTC directly dropped below 80000, ETH fell to around 2300, OKB, DOGE, and SOL are all plunging, even stock tokens like SNDK and MU are falling.
In the past 24 hours, 185,000 people were liquidated, totaling $982 million, with over 90% being long positions. A day of bloodbath for the bulls.
Why is everything falling?
The root cause is last night's US September CPI data. Year-over-year 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations. Once the data was released, the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in October instantly surged to nearly 50%. Although it later retreated, the expectation of "higher rates for longer" has reignited.
US stocks crashed first. Nasdaq dropped nearly 2%, European semiconductor stocks plunged, ASML fell over 5%, SK Hynix dropped over 7%. South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted 8%, triggering a circuit breaker.
The crypto market was sold off in tandem but has its own accelerators.
Ethereum contract liquidations reached $286 million, Bitcoin liquidations $197 million, all longs. The long leverage piled up around 80000-82000 was triggered by a single needle, chain liquidations then pushed the price down further.
I currently hold no positions, not because I'm bearish, but because I know that macro-driven drops like this make cutting losses at the bottom the dumbest move.
Let's chat in the comments, were you buried in this wave or did you dodge it?
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $BTC US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike within the year?
CPI and PPI both significantly surpassed market expectations, with the inflation rebound breaking the previous optimistic market forecast of a gradual decline in inflation. The possibility of another Fed rate hike within the year has risen again. This round of inflation rebound is mainly driven by energy prices, but the core CPI is also strengthening simultaneously, indicating that inflation stickiness on the service side has not dissipated. Upstream production price pressures will gradually transmit downstream to consumption, which hits exactly the risk the Fed is most wary of: inflation becoming entrenched again. However, whether to raise rates or not will not be decided solely based on two monthly data points. A round of rate hikes was just implemented in September, and policy has a lag effect. The Fed needs to observe the ongoing impact of prior tightening on employment and demand. Current employment data already shows signs of weakening. Aggressive consecutive rate hikes would increase recession risks, so the probability of an immediate hike in October remains limited, with more focus on the December FOMC meeting. Going forward, it depends on whether October inflation and nonfarm payroll data continue to be strong. If inflation remains persistently high, a second rate hike within the year is highly likely; if employment cools rapidly and oil prices fall, the Fed may choose to pause rate hikes and maintain a high-rate wait-and-see stance. For various assets, inflation exceeding expectations will push up long-term US Treasury yields again, suppressing valuations of growth stocks and crypto assets. The current market expectations are in a rapid revaluation phase, with significantly increased volatility. It is not advisable to simply bet on a single direction; continuous tracking of subsequent economic data and official statements is necessary. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The CPI data isn't just scary, it’s downright shocking. Both overall and core inflation are soaring, the Fed’s "energy temp worker" script can’t continue, and the market’s bet on "October lying flat" has been kicked over.📉
$BTC: As soon as the data came out, 82,000 was lost, and 80,000 turned from an iron bottom into an iron top. ETF funds keep slipping away, macro tightening shrinks buying; old players on-chain are catching, but can’t withstand futures shorts swinging the hammer. If 80,000 falls, 78,000 will be seen.😬
$ETH: The worst tonight, smashed below around 2400. It was already the weakest, ETF bleeding, staking yields can’t beat US Treasuries, institutions won’t take it. When BTC weakens, it directly kneels. Don’t expect it to strengthen independently in the short term.😵
$XAUT: Gold also collapsed, spot gold down nearly 2%. Core inflation pushes up real rates, the dollar and US Treasury yields both peak, interest-free gold can only take the hit.🥶
View: Don’t bet on the data, bet on the Fed’s trust collapsing. Don’t chase the first candlestick, wait for the sentiment to play out before making a move.🧠#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 PPI exploded: September month-on-month up 1.3%, the largest monthly increase since March 2022; year-on-year up 6.3%, far exceeding the expected 5.3%. Gasoline rose 20.3% in one month, with energy contributing 80% of the increase. CPI 3.7% + PPI 6.3% both exceeded expectations — the rate hike is back on the table for the October 27-28 meeting. It's only a matter of time before PPI's fire spreads to CPI, BTC just caught a breather above 80,000, the real test is still ahead.The moment a big bullish candle shoots up, the group chat becomes both silent and noisy. Have you noticed that the higher the price rises, the fewer people dare to admit they missed out? Last night, I saw a screenshot from a big trader's position: BTC 40x full position long, average price just over 80,000, unrealized profit over 1 million U. ETH 25x, over 30,000 coins, earned more than 5 million. HYPE 10x, 86,000 coins, cost 92 each, unrealized profit 230,000. Account net value over 6.6 million, the numbers look so perfect they seem photoshopped. But what I stared at for a long time was the small line below: cumulative funding fee paid, over 900,000 U. This is where the real story gets interesting. Unrealized profit is just on paper, but the funding fee is real money paid out. The first thing you do every morning isn’t checking the market, it’s paying rent to the exchange. The more sideways the market moves, the more this money leaks like an hourglass, bit by bit. What is the market really trading? Not direction, but patience. The bullish logic is clear: BTC holds above 80,000, ETH defends key ranges, hot money is willing to pay a premium for high Beta assets, and new narratives like HYPE still attract attention. As long as the liquidation line isn’t broken, this position set is a money printer. But the risks hide in two places. First, 40x full position means almost zero margin for error; if BTC falls back to 52,000, it’s a wipeout scenario. Second, the fees are a continuous negative feedback; the longer the sideways market lasts, the thinner the unrealized profits get eaten away. Once the market shifts from a one-way trend to oscillation, the first thing to collapse isn’t the price, but the mindset. What I care about more is the crowd psychology. Now the screen is full of people showing off orders, profits, and beliefs, with narrative fatigue and FOMO coexisting. This kind of Last night, the core CPI exceeded expectations, and tonight the PPI exploded again! Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH are facing bearish pressure again. The US September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year; excluding food and energy, it still increased by 0.7%, indicating significant price pressure on the production side. However, retail sales grew 0.8% month-over-month, but the control group excluding gasoline and other items only rose 0.1%, so consumption is not as strong as it appears on the surface. Energy is the main factor, but price pressure is not limited to oil prices. CPI and PPI consecutively exceeding expectations indicate that US inflation pressure is more stubborn than the market thinks. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October only rose from about 33.2% to 33.8%, while the probability of at least one rate hike before the end of the year increased to 66%. Meanwhile, the dollar, 10-year US Treasury yields, and Brent crude oil all retreated intraday, which is not good news for Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounds. Therefore, I remain bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, especially more cautious on Ethereum. I believe the current support observation range is likely between 79,500 and 80,300.#BTC spot ETF sees net outflows again, can institutional buying rebound? Here we need to distinguish: short-term net outflows ≠ institutions being bearish on BTC long-term; it's more of a tactical reduction driven by the macro environment, not a large-scale liquidation of long-term base positions. The ETF's existing scale remains large, but new subscriptions are temporarily weaker than redemptions, losing the previous stable off-exchange incremental support. The market rebound will rely more on on-exchange absorption and long-term holders on-chain.
Capital outflows are a somewhat bearish signal for the market. Without continuous ETF subscriptions to support the bottom, the sustainability of the rebound will be discounted. Once the market weakens, volatility is more likely to be amplified. However, note that outflows can also be a phase of clearing. After continuous outflows, if the redemption scale gradually narrows, that is a precursor signal of buying rebound.
Whether it can rebound depends on three core points:
1. Whether inflation data will fall back subsequently, if rate cut expectations are restored, and if long-term US Treasury yields can turn around;
2. The outflow structure: whether it's large redemptions from leading flagship funds or scattered selling from small funds;
3. Whether there is a reappearance of large single-day net inflows forming a trend through sustained subscriptions.
As long as macro interest rate expectations do not improve significantly, it is difficult to quickly return to a state of sustained net inflows in the short term. If large continuous outflows persist, it means institutional risk appetite continues to decline, which will keep suppressing BTC's rebound potential; if redemptions gradually converge and are combined with positive catalysts, a return of buying interest may be possible. $ETH $BTC $SOL #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
Regarding $UNI, there's something to mention.
On October 19th, it will be listed on CME futures. Only 5 days left.
It sounds like institutions have gained a proper channel to buy it, which is quite nice. But experienced traders should have a conditioned reflex when they see the word "listing"—when did this rally start? Scroll up, the long trendline had been holding for five years, connecting the highs of the previous two bull markets, and it was just recently broken. My first reaction was, bullish. My second reaction was, the person who broke this line was waiting for exactly this news to come out.
Now at 6.87, it has already retraced quite a bit from that position, down nearly 10% in 7 days. It feels like this—good news drives the price up first, then the supply comes out later.
I can't say for sure that it will crash on the 19th, but historically, when a major positive news is released and volume doesn't keep up, eight out of ten times it will pull back. $UNI #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?