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The most annoying thing about inflation is not that it's high.
It's that even though it has slightly eased, variables like energy, tariffs, and AI infrastructure are adding fuel to the fire again.
What the Federal Reserve fears most is not a single bad data point, but inflation becoming sticky again.
Tonight's CPI, the market is trading on exactly this risk.Regarding your mention of the phenomenon "Tonight's CPI may be bearish, but the bulls still account for as high as 60%," this reflects the intense battle between bulls and bears in the current crypto market amid macro uncertainty, each side driven by different logics. Combining current market data and the macro background, the main reasons why bulls still hold a high proportion are as follows:
1. Continuous inflow of institutional funds and the "buying the dip" logic
Despite macro-level pressures, the behavior pattern of institutional investors is changing. Recent data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF, after a brief outflow, has resumed net inflows (such as consecutive days of net inflow in early September). This indicates that institutional buyers tend to use the current pullback as an opportunity to build positions rather than massively reduce risk exposure. This long-term capital support gives bulls the confidence to continue holding.
2. Divergence and battle of macro expectations
Although PPI data exceeding expectations has triggered rate hike concerns, the market still has differing views on the final outcome of tonight's CPI data. Some institutions (such as Citi) predict that core CPI may be lower than expected (e.g., 0.184%). Bulls may be betting that inflation data will cool as expected or even be lower than anticipated, thereby correcting the previous tightening expectations caused by strong non-farm payroll data. Additionally, before key macro data releases, some large holders choose to stay put and wait for the dust to settle, which also maintains relative stability in the market.#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测
The Danish central bank said that the usage rate of stablecoins in the country is very low and currently does not pose a financial stability threat, but the rapid global growth of US dollar-pegged stablecoins could transmit external turmoil through liquidity channels. They are currently cooperating with the European Central Bank to ensure that central bank money remains the main asset for interbank settlements.
My own feeling is that this statement is quite interesting—it admits they are fine themselves but worries that others' problems might spill over onto them. Denmark is small and highly open; the expansion of US dollar stablecoins is not a domestic risk for them but an imported risk. A deeper signal is that the European Central Bank system's vigilance toward US dollar stablecoins is increasing, and it may soon promote more euro-denominated settlement arrangements. The competition among stablecoins is gradually shifting from a market share battle to a contest over monetary sovereignty. $BTC If $ETH really moves now: break through 2470 → sell wall at 2480 gets eaten → quickly pull up to 2495
Then observe: whether the pullback to 2480 can hold.
If: 2495 → back to 2482 → then pull to 2500
This is very strong, because it means: the original short squeeze zone has turned into real support.
But if: 2495 → quickly falls back to 2470 → 2480 cannot be reclaimed
That means it was more just: a liquidation pulse, not a trend breakout.
Short squeezes are responsible for "pushing the price up," while real buying pressure is responsible for "keeping the price there."
So if tonight's CPI is positive, and ETH happens to be near 2470–2480, then there is indeed a very interesting combination:
Positive data + technical breakout + short squeeze
All three appearing together could lead to a very rapid rise.
But if it's just shorts getting liquidated without macro and spot capital follow-through, that rally might actually be very short. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Hot producer inflation is not yet a clean signal of broad price pressure: PPI rose 5.4% year over year, while core gained 0.2% on the month, slightly below forecast.
My read is that stronger yields and the dollar leave CPI with a higher bar to clear. If consumer inflation also surprises higher, the case for looking through the producer-price jump becomes harder to defend.
#PPIHotCPINext 📂 20U Real Account Record 027
💰 Principal: 20U
📉 This Trade Profit: Currently at a Floating Loss
✅ Cumulative Profit: About +40U
📌 Current Position: $SOL
After last night's PPI release, SOL directly dropped below 100. The current price is around 99.3
August PPI year-on-year was 5.4%, higher than the expected 5.3%, and significantly faster than the previous 4.7%. Energy prices are the main driver—Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100, with the US-Iran conflict pushing oil prices up, reigniting inflationary pressure from upstream.
After the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.92%, and Nasdaq futures fell more than 1%. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a Fed rate hike next week has jumped from 64% to 74%.
Tonight there is also the CPI, with market expectations of 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. If CPI also comes in strong, a rate hike is basically certain.
But there is one signal I think is worth highlighting separately.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $347 million, of which SOL's liquidation amount was $17.51 million, with long positions accounting for as much as 95%. Longs are being cleaned out, but the position structure has actually become healthier.
At the same time, Solana's DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours reached $2.948 billion, ranking first among all chains. Fidelity's Solana spot ETF also recorded a net inflow of $900,000 yesterday. On-chain activity and institutional funds have not retreated despite the price drop. After trying out leveraged trading on OKX Wallet, it's basically just "going long means borrowing U to buy coins, short selling is borrowing tokens to sell." Compared to perpetual contract trading, how should I put it? All I have is leverage—nothing else... Oh right, the only difference is that you can borrow + stake + exchange for trading. Simply put, you use real u as collateral during trading, then borrow U/coins from Aave's pool to place orders. Last time, a meme airdropped me and I had 14u left to try leveraged trading. I used this 14u to place an order, eventually borrowing 28.6u and collateralizing 43.3U. According to leverage rules, I default to collateral 14u, then borrowed 0.01173 ETH from Aave. The DEX then sold 0.01173 ETH at the market price for 28.6 USD, meaning the total amount you received doubled by 14.45 USD + 28.57 USD = 48.3 USD. This funds are further locked up as collateral, and the transaction completes a closed loop~ This is the complete trading chain of collateral - lending - exchange. Actually, trading is pretty good, but it's only suitable for long-term holders! I compared contracts and leverage: one position charges funding rate + fees, the other charges interest + service fees. But I checked the same funds and time: for a perpetual contract with ETH held for 24 hours, opening and closing a position fee + funding rate is basically about 0.02U, while leverageIt's happening... the `chain liquidation` scenario is unfolding 😮💨
`77000` broke, 1H dropped 3%, over 190 million long positions evaporated instantly
*Why is the drop so severe this time?*
It's exactly what you said: the `macro triple kill resonance`:
**Trigger** **Impact**
**1. PPI exceeded expectations** Inflation hasn't eased. Tonight's CPI pressure is even greater
**2. Oil price broke 111** Cost side directly hits CPI hard
**3. US Treasury yields surged** `70% chance of rate hike in September`. Risk-free rates are too high, no one wants to play risky assets
Result: `#BTC spot ETF continuous outflows` + `leveraged stampede` = negative feedback
`Opportunity cost of holding BTC` maxed out. Even government bonds yield over 5%, who wants to endure volatility
**ZEC has been looking like someone accidentally pressed the x2 button on volatility in recent days. The coin went from around $800 to over $1,200 in just a few days, and then began to sharply give up some of the movement. And this is where it gets interesting. Because if you just look at the chart, the conclusion is very simple: +50% → overheated → -10% → time to short. I wouldn't be in such a hurry. 🟣 FIRST, THE ETF IS NO LONGER A RUMOR This is an important clarification. The Grayscale Zcash ETF ZCSH launched on August 25 on NYSE Arca. As of September 8, the fund already had pThe topic of today's post is: Before interest rates soared, gold seemed to have turned and gone downhill, but the real test was yet to come! Over the past month, the issue of rate hikes has been flipped up three times in the market. When the July data came out, nonfarm payrolls only increased by 23,000, while the market was waiting for 83,000; CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, marking the second consecutive month of decline; PPI was simply zero. Putting all three data points together, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 50% to just over 30%. That's where gold and silver began to recover. In early August, gold prices were still hovering around $4,000, a level that had been worn down from spring into summer. Three weeks later, it stood above 4,633, and for the whole of August, it rose nearly 10%, at one point reaching 4,700. Silver, platinum, and palladium followed suit. Then on August 28, Wash spoke at Jackson Hole. He said that the few softer inflation data released in summer do not indicate a real improvement in underlying inflation; the Fed still has work to do. The market changed its stance that day, pushing the probability of a rate hike from 30% back to over 50%. Gold prices also began to retreat from their highs, dropping to 4282 in early September. Last night, the PPI pushed this line forward again, raising the probability of a rate hike to about 70%, putting pressure on gold and silver again. Tonight it's CPI's turn, and next week it's the Fed. So the current problem is very straightforward. If CPI remains hot tonight, and Washi really raises rates next week, will the gold and silver rally climbing from around 4000 be slapped back with a slap? That time, inflation spiraled out of control, and the Fed#10-year US Treasury nears 5% threshold, repo fails to stop yield rise
US Treasuries are almost at 5%, and Treasury Department repos can't save it: the market is starting to doubt that "high interest rates are only temporary"
The real issue isn't the 10-year Treasury nearing 5%, but that the Treasury Department offered $6 billion in repos but only took about $5.2 billion, while long-term bonds continued to fall. The 10-year surged to 4.95%, and the 30-year rose to 5.37%, indicating the market doesn't lack a "technical repo" but lacks buyers willing to hold US Treasuries long-term.
Here comes the core contradiction: PPI year-on-year is already at 5.4%, oil prices have surged to $109, and inflation expectations are rising; Trump also proposed giving $5,000 to every adult, with a potential cost exceeding $1 trillion. On one hand, interest rates need to rise; on the other, fiscal stimulus may continue—this is the combination that long-term bonds truly fear.
So the market is not trading a single repo failure now, but rather **"higher rates and longer duration" starting to be repriced**. US stocks have fallen consecutively, and $BTC has also fallen back below around $80,000, with high-valuation assets being drained first.
5% is not the end point but a watershed. If long-term funds still refuse to step in, what the market may sell next is not just bonds but all assets whose valuations rely on low interest rates. # Latest Updates
- Houthis control the Red Sea port of Mocha and land on the Hanish Islands, approaching full control of the Mandeb Strait; Brent crude oil rises 7.98% nearing $110.
- The ECB raises interest rates by 25 basis points as expected; Lagarde calls the preventive hike a "no brainer," raising the 2027 inflation forecast to 2.5%.
- US August PPI year-on-year at 5.4%, slightly above expectations; energy prices up 4.2% month-on-month; initial jobless claims at 206,000; Goldman Sachs raises August core PCE forecast to 0.24%.
- Treasury repurchases $5.187 billion in long-term bonds, below the $6 billion cap; 2-year US Treasury yields hit a new high since June 24 years ago; 30-year yields reach the highest since 2007.
- FCC's final equipment authorization rules do not list optical modules as a separate restricted category; purely mechanical or passive components are excluded; extreme restriction assumptions not implemented.
- BTC at $76,900, ETH at $2,446; BTC ETF net outflow of $120 million, ETH ETF net inflow of $35 million; Coinbase anchors September 15 as a key date for the CLARITY Act.
# Trading Analysis
- Conclusion unchanged: geopolitical oil price shocks are re-pricing medium-term inflation expectations, not emotional volatility.
- Houthis nearing control of the Mandeb Strait, Brent crude near $110 forces ECB preventive rate hike, pressuring the Fed. Treasury repurchase below cap damages Basent's credibility; 2-year yields hit a 24-year high since June, 30-year yields highest since 2007. Focus on Friday's CPI and US-Iran developments.
- Oracle beats expectations after hours (42.1% profit margin, $30 billion new AI contracts signed, RPO at $664 billion); FCC new rules ease optical module concerns; BTC holds at $76,900.What happens after the $ETH short squeeze is over? There are three possibilities.
First, the strongest bullish scenario: spot and active buying continue to take over. After the shorts are squeezed out, the price doesn't drop; instead: 2480 holds → 2490 → 2500
This indicates the rise is not just due to a "short squeeze," but there is genuinely new capital willing to keep buying at higher prices.
This is the strongest trend.
Second: after the short squeeze ends, the price actually falls back. Because the forced liquidation of shorts itself generates a one-time buying surge. Once that batch of shorts is cleared: the forced buying disappears. If no new spot capital continues to buy at this point, and the previous bulls start taking profits, then it’s entirely possible: 2480 short squeeze → surge to 2500 → then fall back to 2470 or even lower.
So sometimes you’ll see a very typical candlestick: a sudden big bullish candle followed quickly by a retracement. This is a "liquidation-driven rally," which doesn’t necessarily mean a trend up.
Third, new shorts enter again at higher levels. For example, the shorts at 2404 were wiped out, but the price surged to: 2500 / 2520 / 2560
Another group of traders thinks it’s expensive and will short again.
Old shorts are cleared, and new shorts establish positions at higher levels. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 BTC is currently around $76,600. If the core CPI can still be kept around 0.2%, the market can at least breathe a sigh of relief, and the probability of a rate hike may drop, allowing BTC to potentially recover back to around $78,000 or even $80,000.
If CPI exceeds expectations, it’s uncertain whether Bitcoin can hold $76,000. After last night’s PPI release, the market has clearly become more nervous.
The US August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, in line with expectations, but the year-over-year increase reached 5.4%, slightly above market expectations. More troubling is that energy prices rose 4.2% in a single month, and oil prices are currently high again.
The market’s probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen from about 61% the previous day to around 71%.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% August PPI year-on-year 5.4%, expected 5.3%, previous 4.7% Core PPI year-on-year 4.6%, expected 4.5% Data across the board exceeded expectations‼️‼️‼️
CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September rose from 65% before the data to 70%–74%, with an 82% chance of a rate hike in October
Tonight at 8:30, August CPI
Market expects overall CPI year-on-year 3.4%, core CPI month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year 2.4%
Only if below 0.20% can a September rate hike possibly be prevented
Citibank's forecast is even lower, 0.184% This 0.01% difference is the dividing line between bulls and bears
PPI is already on the hot side; if core CPI is 0.2% or above, a rate hike is basically locked in
$BTC has already reduced long leverage in advance
CPI exceeding expectations, BTC may dip to 76400 triggering further stop losses; only below 0.19% is a quick rebound possible
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 The crypto market sector has fallen for two consecutive days. This time, Crypto is not just a single sector falling, but a decline in risk appetite.
What’s really worth watching in this drop is not which coin fell the most, but that BTC, ETH, and most altcoins are all moving downward together. $BTC has already dropped from $82,000 at the beginning of September to around $78,000, and ETH has also seen a significant pullback in the past two days.
More importantly, funds are starting to loosen. Previously, the BTC spot ETF attracted about $1 billion in three trading days, but from September 8 to 9, it turned negative for two consecutive days, with about $147 million flowing out; meanwhile, $ETH and $SOLETF actually saw inflows.
So the market is not trading on a sudden deterioration of Crypto fundamentals, but rather macro risks are overshadowing the crypto narrative again: oil prices surging, long-term bond yields approaching 5%, and rising expectations of rate hikes, causing funds to first cut high-volatility assets.
My judgment: this looks more like an overall deleveraging of risk assets plus a rotation of funds, not a complete reversal of the crypto trend yet. But if BTC ETF continues to see consecutive outflows, then it’s no longer just a "shakeout"—it’s a real withdrawal of spot funds.Last night, PPI pushed BTC down to $76,465, but by noon today it climbed back near $77,200, though this recovery is still not smooth.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year. Looking closely, the pressure mainly comes from the commodity side, with rising energy prices as the main cause. The market's concern is straightforward: expensive energy makes inflation harder to reduce and interest rates harder to ease.
At 14:05, checking OKX, BTC has rebounded about $700 from last night's low, but the perpetual funding rate remains around 0.0074%. The price has only recovered halfway; the cost of going long has returned, and those chasing the rebound are quicker than spot confirmations.
I won't chase this rebound today; core spot remains unchanged, and small coins continue to be accumulated. Before the CPI release at 20:30 tonight, if BTC doesn't close back above $77,800, I will continue to defend; only after it stands back above $77,800 and the funding rate drops below 0.005% will I consider this dip fully cleansed.
Data sources: BLS, OKX. Personal record, not investment advice. $BTC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 This bomb is indeed bigger than expected 💣 `Brent111` = highest since May
From 60.7 at the start of the year to 111 now, `83% in 8 months`. One barrel is $50 more expensive, directly pushing inflation expectations through the roof
*1. Why did oil suddenly surge*
**Cause** **Impact**
**Houthi hit Saudi oil pipeline** This is Saudi Arabia's lifeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Equivalent to a double blow of `supply chain + geopolitics`
**Red Sea risk expands** #RedSeaRiskExpands, $100 oil price returns. Freight + insurance costs all rise
**From start of year to now** 60.7→111. Energy costs have already passed through 2 rounds
*2. Nuclear impact on Fed & CPI*
You are absolutely right: `Oil price hits the Fed in the face`
`#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction`
The 83% oil price increase will transmit through 3 channels:
1. *Transportation* → logistics costs
2. *Manufacturing* → raw materials + electricity costs
3. *Chemical* → full chain of plastics, fertilizers
So `CPI is very likely to explode`. The probability of a rate hike in September was already 60%, oil rising might push it directly to `70%+`
People at LMAX said yesterday: `If the Fed pauses rate hikes, it's positive for BTC`. Now the possibility of a pause is decreasing
*3. Transmission to crypto*
`Risk assets fear the most: high interest rates + high oil prices`
**Asset** **Short-term impact**
**$BTC** Last night PPI was 5.4%, slightly higher than expected, and $BTC was hammered straight down from above 79k to 76.8k. The leveraged market got shaken again, with $450 million liquidated, mostly longs.
This script is actually not new: inflation data beats expectations → rate hike probability rises → US Treasury yields soar → risk assets get hit. The 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.35%, the highest since 2007, and this pressure is no joke.
But the really interesting part is tonight.
CPI is at 8:30 tonight, the last inflation reading before the September FOMC. PPI was just the appetizer; CPI is the main course. If core CPI also beats expectations, the rate hike probability will shoot up directly to 80%, and BTC will most likely look for support lower. Conversely, if core CPI holds steady or is below expectations, the market will immediately start trading the "rate hike expectations fading," and $BTC, as an oversold asset, will bounce quickly.
To put it simply, $BTC is stuck at 77k right now, and both bulls and bears are waiting for tonight's number.
PPI has already raised expectations; as long as CPI doesn't explode, it's good news. If it does explode, 76k might not hold.
Don't sleep too hard tonight. $BTC
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 @OKX中文 Open the market software, BTC is hovering around 76K. Close it. Check again in the afternoon, 76K. Check again at night, 76K.
A week ago it was 76K, two weeks ago also 76K, a month ago, still 76K.
No rise, no crash. Just lingering like this.
Lingering until you start doubting yourself: What am I even doing holding this thing?
A crash actually feels reassuring—at least you know what’s happening. Sideways movement is different. Sideways is the market dragging a dull knife back and forth in your heart, dragging for a whole month.
This kind of market makes people want to cut losses more than a crash. Because a crash makes you fearful, sideways makes you doubt.
Yesterday, ETFs saw another $282.7 million outflow.
ARKB lost $164 million, GBTC lost $36.4 million, FBTC lost $33.6 million. Plus, the Coinbase premium index has been negative for 5 consecutive days, as if US buying has collectively disappeared.
When you see these numbers, the only thought in your mind is: Are institutions withdrawing? Should I run?
But calm down first.
Take a look at JPMorgan’s research report—during the week of September 4, the three major US crypto ETP categories had a combined net outflow of $1.126 billion. Sounds scary, right?
But the same report has another number: Bitcoin ETP cumulative net inflow is about $58.2 billion.
$58.2 billion. Against a background of $1.1 billion outflow in one month.
Onchain Lens data is even more direct: since September, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have still recorded a cumulative net inflow of about $622.7 million, and the overall capital trend this month has not turned negative.
Do you understand?
The $1.126 billion outflow, placed in the $58.2 billion pool, is not even a drop in the bucket. This is not a retreat, it’s someone changing seats.
Outflows during a decline and outflows during sideways movement are two different things.
Outflows during a crash are called panic selling, which often means the bottom is near. But outflows during sideways movement mean only one thing—institutions are waiting for a cheaper price, not rejecting the asset.
Did you notice?
From August 28 to September 2, on-chain whales bought about 6,765 BTC during the pullback, worth $521 million.
Strategy paused buying for a week, but it holds 845,050 BTC with an average cost of $75,412, plus $6.5 billion cash reserves waiting.
These people are not running. They are waiting. Waiting for a price that makes them feel "worth it."
And you, because you don’t have their patience, became the one washed out.
Look at another counterintuitive signal.
The Fear & Greed Index is now 69-70, still in the "Greed" zone. The price is pulling back, but sentiment hasn’t collapsed.
A month ago this index was 27—extreme fear.
Price fell, but sentiment became more optimistic. What does this mean? It means those remaining in the market are not trapped, they truly believe in this asset.
Believers aren’t afraid to wait. Those afraid to wait shouldn’t be here in the first place.
So what should you do now?
I’ll give you an answer you might not like: Do nothing.
Don’t predict direction. Don’t leverage. Don’t make any directional bets before the FOMC decision.
The probability of a rate hike in September has already surged from 35% to over 60%, and oil prices breaking $100 have reignited inflation expectations. These are things you can’t control; betting on them is betting on others’ decisions.
The only thing you can control is one thing—lower your expectations and extend your time horizon.
At this point, position size is ten thousand times more important than direction.
Sideways movement is the market asking you one question: Do you really believe?
If you believe, 76K and 62K make no difference—you hold an asset, not a price.
If you don’t believe, 80K is also a selling point—you’re just gambling on something you haven’t thought through.
A month ago, when the fear index was 27, you didn’t dare buy; now at 76K sideways, you’re hesitating whether to run. The problem has never been the market, but that your position size exceeds your understanding.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续流出 $BTC indeed dropped, just as I expected.
Bitcoin hovered between 77,000 and 78,000 for a week. Now with rising expectations of interest rate hikes, it's not good news for crypto—bearish!
Fortunately, institutions haven't fled. Lookonchain shows a 24h net inflow of 2,038 BTC ETFs (about $162 million), a 7-day cumulative net inflow of 11,100 BTC (about $880 million); according to SoSoValue, the week ending September 5 saw an inflow of $987 million, with total product net assets surpassing $101.25 billion, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $55.6 billion. The buyers are real money.
But the psychological barrier at $80,000 remains unbroken. The 20-day EMA supports at 76,700, the 50-day EMA at 72,000, RSI at 61.5 is not overbought, and open interest has piled up to $53 billion.
Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the US August CPI will be released. The previous year-over-year value was 3.4%, and the probability of a rate hike in September has surged above 60%. Bitcoin is just waiting for the trigger.
If CPI blows past expectations and breaks down, first watch 72,000. Don't get ahead of yourself before CPI, wait for the actual data.Brent crude oil has broken through 111, the first time since May. It was only 60.7 at the beginning of the year, rising 83% in eight months, more than $50 per barrel.
The trigger is reportedly the Houthis in Yemen hitting Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline for the first time. This pipeline is Saudi Arabia's lifeline for transporting oil to the Red Sea bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Now that it has been hit, it means the supply side has taken another hit.
At this oil price level, inflation pressure is directly hitting the Federal Reserve's face. The market was already betting on a rate hike in September, and now with crude oil soaring like this, the CPI data is very likely to look bad. The rise in oil prices will transmit through the entire industry chain of transportation, manufacturing, and chemicals, which is not something that can be digested in the short term.
Previously, CPI was said to be the biggest risk this week, but now it seems this risk is even bigger than expected.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 #伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 $BZ The company disclosed a mid-point revenue guidance of $10.55 billion for the next fiscal quarter, below the consensus expectation of $11.16 billion; meanwhile, the company indicated limited upside for gross margin, unable to continue the previously sustained upward trend.
The market had already formed very high expectations earlier, with investors assuming SanDisk would significantly exceed expectations every quarter. When the performance merely meets expectations and cannot continue to exceed them, it results in "good news fully priced in," commonly referred to as Sell the News, which became the direct trigger for the stock price decline this time. After the earnings release, the stock quickly dropped intraday and then entered a sustained correction channel.
Taking this market situation as an example, on September 10, 2026, SanDisk closed at $1692.59, down $71.58 or 4.06% for the day, continuing the previous correction trend. 100x short $SOL floating profit 186%, though it looks green, the market actually dropped less than 2%. This kind of position purely relies on extreme micro position size and strong luck.
Opened at 101, dropped to 99.8, with random spikes up and down in between, any heavy position would have been wiped out, but I didn't watch the market and managed to hold on.
Moved the stop loss to breakeven early, now it's just free lottery tickets, no guessing the bottom, if the rebound breaks the moving average, I'll exit immediately. $BTC $ETH #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction No predictions, no emotions, and no need to prove oneself right.
This morning's opening, my judgment was indeed wrong.
$BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC continued to weaken in the previous trading session. I originally thought there might be a technical rebound after consecutive declines.
But I did not chase the short, and I am glad I did not rashly go long.
Otherwise, today's opening position might have already turned into a very unpleasant trade.
What deserves more attention now is not "guessing the bottom," but what the market is currently trading:
🟠 $BTC → around $77K, spot ETF recently saw capital outflows again
🔵 $ETH → around $2.43K, ETF capital performance temporarily stronger than BTC
🟣 $ZEC → still maintaining relative strength, recent ETF capital and demand have become market focus
On the macro side, August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, inflation pressure combined with rising oil prices, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September once rose to about 70%. Today's CPI data will continue to influence rate expectations.
Meanwhile, Oracle's latest cloud business growth reached 121%, AI infrastructure demand remains strong, but risk assets are still suppressed by high oil prices and rising US Treasury yields.
So now my thinking is very simple:
No guessing rebounds, no chasing declines.
First, watch if capital flows, trading volume, and key supports can stabilize again.
The market won't give you a rebound just because you "feel it should rebound."
Sometimes, doing nothing is actually the best trade. 👀
#DailyOrbit #BTC #ETH #ZEC #PPI #CPI #BTCSpotETFA finance minister claiming to know the intentions of another country's central bank prompts market makers' first reaction not to trust but to reprice risk.
The Bank of Japan is very likely to raise rates by 25 basis points next week, which is a routine move. But the U.S. side preemptively signaling this effectively seizes half of the expectation management, pushing up the implied volatility of yen assets. Market makers can only widen spreads to hedge this uncertainty.
A more likely chain is: the more frequent the intervention, the less the market trusts the Bank of Japan's independence, instead betting in advance on a policy shift. There is still a lack of direct evidence proving the U.S. side truly obtained inside information.
Watch the yen overnight implied volatility after next week's meeting. If it rises instead of falling, it indicates that credibility damage has already been priced in.
#CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进
#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $HYPE Oracle rises, Adobe falls: The AI bull market isn't over, but the era of "everything AI goes up" is over!
Oracle and Adobe's earnings reports illustrate one thing:
The market no longer buys the AI story; it only rewards companies that can turn AI into revenue and profit.
Let's look at Oracle first.
Q1 revenue was $19.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year, cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% year-over-year, and the FY2027 full-year revenue target was raised to $90 billion.
After the earnings release, due to continued growth in AI infrastructure demand, orders, revenue, and future guidance were all strong enough, leading to an after-hours rise of about 7%.
Now let's look at Adobe.
Revenue was $6.76 billion, up 13% year-over-year, AI-related ARR grew over 150% year-over-year, but after-hours it fell 2.3%.
The market started to ask: With AI growth so fast, why is overall revenue growth only 13%?
Having AI doesn't equal growth; having growth doesn't equal profit.
When screening AI companies, I suggest looking at four points:
· Whether AI has converted into real orders and revenue;
· Whether there is pricing power to increase ARPU and profit margins;
· Whether capital expenditures are controllable and revenue can cover investments;
· Whether cash flow is improving in tandem.
The AI bull market is not over, but the market will only reward companies that truly turn AI into money.
#EarningsObserver: Oracle and Adobe report tonight
$xORCL $xAAPL $ETH If someone chased shorts around 2404 last night, assuming 30x leverage, then ETH has now reached around 2460–2470, and these positions are already very uncomfortable:
2404 → 2460: reverse about +2.33%, 30x theoretical ROE about -70%
2404 → 2470: reverse about +2.75%, 30x about -82%
2404 → 2480: reverse about +3.16%, 30x about -95%
So just now seeing the 2470–2480 pressure zone, besides technical resistance and order walls, there is also a possible microstructure:
If many high-leverage short positions were really piled up around 2400 last night, then 2470–2480 itself may enter a forced liquidation/stop-loss zone for some shorts.
This also explains why once 2470 is broken and the 2480 sell wall is truly eaten up, the price may suddenly accelerate—the shorts’ stop-loss and liquidation orders are buy orders themselves, which in turn push the price further up.
So now 2470–2480 is both a bullish pressure zone and a danger zone for high-leverage shorts. These two forces will collide head-on there. #OpenAI联手三星研发下一代AI芯片
The collaboration between OpenAI and Samsung is superficially a "joint development," but in essence, it is "using orders to secure a second supplier." With TSMC's capacity and geopolitical risks in place, OpenAI needs Samsung to successfully run the 2nm process.
Harrison Kim, OpenAI's Korea General Manager, confirmed in Seoul that the "most significant progress" in joint production and research with Samsung is on the next-generation chips. Previously, cooperation was limited to memory—Samsung and SK Hynix supply HBM4 for Stargate. Now the scope has expanded to logic foundry.
Samsung's 2nm yield rate is a key variable. It was about 60% at the beginning of the year and has recently risen to around 80%, reaching mass production levels. The planned capacity of the Taylor fab has been fully booked by customers such as Tesla, Broadcom, and Arm. Samsung has the capability to take on orders and has a queue of orders lined up.
On OpenAI's side, the first chip, Jalapeño, is manufactured by TSMC N3P. The second generation is already in development, and the third generation is in planning. Bringing Samsung in as a second source supplier is primarily motivated by capacity flexibility and supply chain security. On September 10, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $282.7 million. ARKB alone withdrew $164.3 million, while GBTC and FBTC each saw outflows of over $30 million.
The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index recorded negative values for five consecutive days, most recently at -0.042%.
These two events look like "another correction."
Last year’s "1011 crash" saw a negative premium lasting about 30 days. From January to February this year, it lasted 40 days. In both cases, the market treated it as an "event"—something went wrong, so just wait it out.
And then?
From May 19 to August 23, 97 days.
The premium more than doubled.
On August 24, the premium index finally turned positive, reporting 0.0052%. The market cheered, saying "US buying is back."
What happened next? It only held sporadic signals and turned negative again after half a month, for five consecutive days.
This is the most thought-provoking part.
After 97 days of discount, a positive premium has become the anomaly that needs explanation.
Previously, a positive premium was the norm, and a negative premium was news. Now it’s reversed—negative premium is the default state, and occasional positive premium is newsworthy.
This isn’t just indicator fluctuation. The environment has changed.
Look at a finer detail.
The current -0.042% discount is actually quite "mild" compared to -0.1066% in mid-August and -0.1323% in early June. A JPMorgan report also confirmed that although ETP weekly outflows have slowed, the "trend has not reversed."
This indicates that US buyers are not panicking and withdrawing—they just stopped consistently entering the market.
This is the most critical point.
Over the past two years, US spot buying has been the core engine driving BTC’s rise. ETF inflows are the most important number to watch daily after market open, and the Coinbase premium is the first signal to judge whether institutions are present.
Now?
US buyers have become the "absent default party."
When they occasionally return, you need to explain why. When they’re absent, no explanation is needed—because that’s the norm.
Bitcoin is now hovering around $76,500, trading sideways between $75,000 and $82,000. The price hasn’t crashed, but the force structure driving the price has changed.
Macro hawks are pressing down, geopolitical conflicts are pressing down, and the previously thickest pipe—the US spot buying—is leaking.
It’s not a major negative event. The largest incremental buyer has become a consistent net seller.
When 97 days of discount becomes a historical record, the next positive premium may require a bull market to explain.
Don’t use old maps to find new continents.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续流出 Last night, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $282.7 million.
ARKB alone saw $164 million outflow, GBTC $36.4 million.
The group chat exploded. "Institutions are running," "The bull market is over," "If you don't run now, it'll be too late."
And then?
If you only shorted based on this data today, the price might have already rebounded.
Because ETF data is T+1. The "outflow of $282.7 million" you see reflects yesterday's fund movements. Yesterday's events are only told to you today. This is not information, it's an obituary.
On September 8, Jiang Zhuoer said something very insightful: "Trading based on ETF data is like driving while looking in the rearview mirror."
What can the rearview mirror show? It can tell you whether you just drove on a straight or curved road. But it can't tell you if there's a pit ahead.
What is the windshield? The Coinbase premium index.
This indicator measures in real-time the Bitcoin price difference between Coinbase Pro and Binance. A positive premium means Americans are scrambling to buy; a negative premium means the US market is either selling or not buying at all.
On September 8, Jiang Zhuoer observed the premium expanding and turning negative, predicting the ETF outflow in advance. By the time the ETF data was officially released, the market had already finished falling.
What you see is the result. What he saw was the cause.
So what's the current situation of the premium index?
It has been negative for 5 consecutive days, latest at -0.042%.
The number is negative, which sounds scary. But the key is not the sign, but the magnitude.
For comparison: mid-August was -0.1066%, early June was -0.1323%. This current -0.042% is a "weak negative."
What does weak negative mean?
The US buying side is weak, but there is no panic exit. It's not "rushing out the door," but "moving a chair to the door and sitting there, not leaving."
The meaning of weak negative is clear: no crash, but no rally either. No new inflows, no stampede. Just one word—endure.
More painful data here:
From May 19 to August 23, the premium index was negative for 97 consecutive days. This is the longest record in history. The previous longest was 40 days from January to February, and before that 30 days during last year's crash.
The scale is completely different.
Negative premium is no longer a signal of "something's wrong," but structurally has become the default state of US spot demand. On August 24, it barely turned positive once, at 0.0052%, but quickly reverted.
Occasional positive premium has become the anomaly. This is more worth your pause than any single-day outflow.
Tonight is CPI. This is the next variable. If CPI exceeds expectations, the probability of rate hikes rises, and BTC may dip to 76,000 or even 75,000. If CPI is below expectations, rate hike expectations fall, and a rebound is imminent.
But no matter how CPI goes, you must remember this framework:
Premium index turns negative + expands → Beware of ETF outflows, don't rush to bottom-fish.
Premium index narrows → Outflows are slowing, watch the window.
Premium index turns positive → Institutional inflows confirmed, this is the real signal.
Currently at -0.042%, it is in the "narrowing" phase. Narrowing from -0.1066% to -0.042% means selling pressure is not intensifying.
But this does not mean buying has returned. It only means no one is rushing to sell.
Don't judge tomorrow's market by yesterday's ETF data. The premium index is a real-time thermometer; ETF data is an overnight autopsy report.
The thermometer still reads 37.2°C. Not dead, but don't expect a jump.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续流出 There's a concept in the crypto world that's easy to confuse: as long as I switch to stablecoins, I'm hedgeing my risk. Actually, that's not entirely true. Exchanging BTC or altcoins for USDT or USDC essentially avoids short-term crypto asset volatility and temporarily returns to a US dollar cash position. This is very important on the trading side, especially during market crashes, chain liquidations, and rapid liquidity contractions—stablecoins are the most direct defensive tool. But stablecoins are not gold. Stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, while gold hedges precisely the long-term purchasing power, currency credit, and macro uncertainty. If you hold stablecoins, you might avoid BTC's one-day drop of [10%]; But if money continues to expand, real interest rates change, and fiscal pressure rises in the coming years, simply holding cash doesn't mean you haven't lost your purchasing power. That's why in truly mature positions, cash, gold, and BTC play different roles. Stablecoins are responsible for waiting for opportunities, ensuring you have bullets in extreme volatility; Gold is responsible for dealing with the long-term noise of the traditional financial system and macro environment; BTC bears high volatility, high elasticity, and bets on the future monetary system. Many people like to ask: Should I go all in BTC now, or switch everything to stablecoins? This question essentially turns trading into taking sides. What the market truly rewards are often not those with the strongest beliefs, but those who can switch between different assets and admit their uncertainty. Stablecoins are cash management tools, not a universal hedging answer. Yellow#BTC spot ETF continuous outflows
Latest data
The US BTC spot ETF has started continuous net outflows for several days, with daily outflow scale continuously expanding. The market price of $BTC is 76430, under downward pressure. On-exchange long leverage positions are being liquidated one after another, market sentiment is clearly more cautious, and funds are all waiting for tonight's CPI results.
Market consensus
Bearish voices believe that continuous redemptions represent institutional funds actively withdrawing, with a lack of short-term buying support, so the adjustment space will further open;
Neutral views suggest that this round of outflows is more about risk aversion and portfolio adjustment, not a long-term complete exit. Once inflation data eases, funds will quickly flow back.
Underlying logic analysis
ETF fund flows represent the marginal attitude of institutions. Continuous outflows will amplify selling pressure on the market, but this is more a result, not the root cause. The real factors controlling the current market are inflation data and US Treasury yields. As long as macro pressure is not relieved, even if there is a short-term rebound, resistance above remains significant. #PPIHotCPINext #BTCSpotETFOutflows #OracleAICloudUp121% If the CPI is just "as expected," it doesn't necessarily mean a negative impact. Because the market has already priced in the rate hike risk in advance, currently there is even about a 70% expectation of a rate hike. As long as the data isn't hotter than expected, BTC might actually see a sharp rally due to the "negative news being priced in." So I won't simply bet on the direction at 20:29.
In short: If I had to bet now, I'd bet on "first 75K," but only with a slight edge; the real change in judgment depends on which breaks first effectively, 76,400 or 78,200.
If tonight's Core CPI ≤0.2%, I will immediately turn bullish, targeting 79,700–80,400 first; if Core CPI ≥0.3%, I will clearly lean towards 75K or even 74.7K.CPI bomb drops tonight at 20:30!
Anything not significantly below expectations = bearish.
Friday + weekend liquidity vacuum + FOMC next Thursday = triple whammy.
PPI already previewed it: global sell-off, CME hike odds spiked to 72.4%.
History: above 69% → hike follows. This time likely no exception.
Every bounce is a shorting opportunity. Longs are the fuel.
BTC is one breath away from the 76,200 lifeline.#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows #10-year US Treasury nears 5%, BTC and QQQ both hit
This round of decline is not due to any new shock in the crypto space, but because global capital is being forced to recalculate: when US Treasuries can offer nearly 5% yield, BTC and high-valuation tech stocks must deliver higher growth expectations to retain funds.
$BTC is currently around $77,100, briefly dropping below $77,000, down over 5% this week. August PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, Brent crude nears $109, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has climbed back to around 70%; meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $120 million on Wednesday, more than double the previous day. $76,300 is the key support line for this rebound; if broken, a further test of $75,000 may follow; on the upside, first reclaim $78,000, then $80,000. Now is not the time to guess the bottom, but to see if ETF outflows can stop first.
$QQQ closed at $708.69, down 1.07%. Tech company earnings have not suddenly collapsed; the real change is in the valuation denominator: with 10-year US Treasuries near 5%, future cash flows must be discounted at higher rates. $706 is the first support, $700 is the psychological line; only by reclaiming $716–720 can it show that capital is willing to take on duration risk again. BTC and QQQ weakening together indicates this is not an internal crypto issue, but a tightening of macro liquidity.
#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 #BTC现货ETF连续流出
$BTC spot ETF has continuous outflows, with funds rotating towards ETH and XRP
Just saw the data, the US BTC spot ETF had net outflows of about $167 million from September 8 to 9, with a single-day outflow of $120 million on the 9th, mainly dragged down by ARKB redemptions, while only MSBT had a slight inflow of $4.49 million. Previously, from September 2 to 4, there was a cumulative inflow of about $1.01 billion. This current outflow has not yet reversed the previous trend, but subscription enthusiasm has clearly cooled.
During the same period, the ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $34.75 million on the 9th, the XRP ETF inflowed $5.14 million, and the SOL ETF slightly turned negative. This divergence is particularly interesting against the backdrop of the CPI release, rising probability of rate hikes, oil prices breaking $100, and rising US Treasury yields.
BTC fell from a high of 79,768 to 76,464, down about 1.5% in 24 hours, now stabilizing around 77,248. This correction is mainly due to macro pressure combined with ETF fund outflows, but ETH is relatively resilient, and XRP continues to attract funds.
If BTC continues to have outflows after macro pressure eases, while ETH and XRP continue to attract funds, it may not just be a risk-hedging rotation, but a re-pricing happening within crypto assets.The Underlying Currents Behind the Data: Private Equity Giants' BTC Contrarian Positioning Amid ETF Outflows
Market attention is almost entirely locked on the daily fund flows of BTC spot ETFs, and whenever there is a net outflow, public opinion cries out "institutional flight." However, very few delve deeply into the SEC's 13F holdings report, which reveals a completely different market picture.
In the second quarter of this year, despite continuous large redemptions from $BTC spot ETFs and funds steadily withdrawing from standardized products, private equity institutions such as hedge funds and family offices were buying counter-trend in the OTC market. The result is that the total institutional holdings actually increased by 7.5% quarter-over-quarter.
Essentially, these are two completely heterogeneous capital camps:
The funds behind ETFs are mostly trend followers and allocation-type pension funds, who often choose to redeem to protect themselves amid severe volatility; whereas the private capital disclosed in 13F filings, such as hedge funds, are typical long-term contrarian players. They quietly accumulate off-exchange during price pullbacks and transfer to cold storage. Since this bypasses the ETF channel, these actions naturally do not show up in ETF flow data.
Turning the focus to $ETH, the logic diverges somewhat. In Q2, private equity institutions' exposure growth to ETH significantly outpaced BTC. Institutions absorb ETH partly to stake and capture on-chain yields; in contrast, BTC itself does not generate interest, so private equity purchases are purely for asset allocation purposes, aiming to hedge potential risks from the US dollar and US Treasury bonds.On September 9, a group of easily overlooked capital divergences appeared.
BTC spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of about $120 million, but on the same day, ETH ETFs had a net inflow of $34.75 million, SOL a net inflow of $11.73 million, and XRP a net inflow of $12.29 million.
This occurred in an environment where the PPI rose to 5.4%, the 10-year US Treasury yield approached 4.95%, and Brent crude stood above $107.
Therefore, the statement "institutions are withdrawing from crypto" is not entirely accurate.
Current data suggests that macro pressures are suppressing overall risk appetite, but institutional funds are beginning to reallocate between BTC and other crypto assets.
The key points to watch going forward are: whether BTC ETFs continue to see consecutive outflows, and whether ETH/SOL/XRP can maintain net inflows.
If the latter also turns negative simultaneously, it would indicate that capital is truly entering a phase of broad risk contraction. An address bought $159 million worth of $HYPE over eight months, not selling a single coin—what exactly is it aiming for?
On-chain data: Wallet 0x8e48 has cumulatively purchased 1.89 million $HYPE in the past eight months, valued at $159 million. All acquisitions were made through Galaxy Digital's institutional OTC channel, and all coins were staked immediately without selling a single one. On September 10 alone, an additional 116,000 coins were added.
Staking means these coins won't return to the market in the short term; this is a real lock-up of funds, not just hype.
But another figure is alarming: $HYPE's contract trading volume is $2.88 billion, while spot volume is only $208 million—the contract volume is 14 times the spot. Moreover, there is $30.4 million in longs near $80, with "100% longs" within a ±5% range.
Today, $HYPE dropped 6.37%, currently priced at 78.78, breaking below the MA20 (82.88) and the 60-day high of 89.61.
Analysis: The whale is buying for three years, while leveraged traders are betting on three days. Short-term resistance is at 81.5; breaking it would trigger a leverage sell-off. Only holding above 89.7 can we talk about reaching 100. Don't use the whale's position to back your own leverage.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Crypto treasury companies have finally encountered a question more difficult than "whether to be bullish on BTC": when their own stock is cheap, should they buy coins or buy back their own shares?
Strive continues to purchase 1,375 BTC, mainly funded by perpetual preferred shares; Strategy has paused buying coins, spending $176.3 million to repurchase STRC and raising the buyback limit to $2 billion. On the surface, it looks like two companies have different judgments, but essentially they are answering the same capital allocation question.
If a company's stock trades above net asset value for a long time, issuing shares to buy coins may increase the coin holdings per share; but once the premium disappears, continuing to finance and expand the balance sheet means the new BTC may not belong to existing shareholders, while dilution definitely affects them. At this point, repurchasing discounted securities may create more value than chasing coin prices to increase positions.
This is also my new standard for judging whether a treasury company is reliable: whether management is willing to choose shareholder returns over the "coin holding leaderboard."
Buying coins easily earns applause, but buybacks require admitting the market temporarily does not recognize your story. A truly mature treasury strategy is not to always buy coins, but to know where every dollar is best placed to maximize value per share.
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ BTC might now be experiencing the most magical scene: oil prices are hitting it, while sanctions are finding it new users.
These two things seem completely opposite, yet they are happening simultaneously.
Oil prices surge, inflationary pressure rises again, market expectations for rate cuts are suppressed, so BTC naturally struggles in the short term.
But on the other hand, traditional cross-border payments are increasingly restricted, and some countries are starting to reconsider the settlement value of assets like BTC and USDT.
This is the real point worth paying attention to.
In the short term, BTC is a risk asset; when oil prices and CPI rise, it will drop first.
In the long term, if more and more countries are forced to seek solutions outside the traditional financial system due to trade, sanctions, cross-border payments, and other practical issues, then the significance of crypto assets may be quietly changing.
Of course, it’s still too early to talk about "global settlement"; actual scale, regulatory restrictions, and funding channels are the ultimate answers.
So here’s the question:
Do you think BTC’s greatest value in the future is as "digital gold," or could it become a tool for some countries to bypass the traditional financial system?
$BTC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 It's hard to imagine how bad the crypto market would be if Trump lost the November midterm elections.
What the crypto world is hoping for now may not just be a bull market, but a short-term bull run during the policy window.
Why?
If Trump holds Congress, there is still room for further advancement in the crypto regulatory framework, and the Clarity Act has a chance to move forward.
But once the Democrats regain power, the policy direction could shift dramatically.
Tightening regulations, congressional investigations, and the shelving of crypto bills—these are the things the market truly fears.
So now, many people are hoping for another wave from $BTC and $ETH, not just to make money.
To put it bluntly:
The stronger the market, the better Trump's campaign looks like; The worse the market, the easier it is for anti-crypto voices to resurface.
As for the claim that "after losing the election, the FBI is hunting crypto big shots all over the world," I don't think it's necessary to exaggerate it so much.
What really deserves concern is that the rules have changed.
Capital has never feared regulation; what it fears most is sudden policy shifts without clear expectations.
So for the crypto world, this round is no longer just a bull-bear battle.
It's more like they're seizing the last crypto policy window left by Trump. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期, tonight's CPI is set at the #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #10年期美债逼近5% mark, and buybacks won't stop yields from rising In Q2, ETFs are redeeming, but private equity holdings in 13F filings actually increased by 7.5% quarter-over-quarter.
The same group of "institutions," one is selling, while the other is quietly accumulating in cold wallets off-exchange in batches. On the ETF side are trend funds and pensions, which exit during volatility; on the 13F side are contrarian long-term funds that don't use the ETF channel, so their daily fund flows are invisible.
Private equity exposure on the ETH side is growing even faster than BTC, partly driven by staking yields, since BTC doesn't generate yield—buying it is purely for allocation.
I don't think ETF outflows mean institutions are collectively bearish, but don't rush to interpret this 7.5% increase as a bottom-fishing signal either. With U.S. Treasury yields not coming down, no matter how quietly private equity hoards, it can't drive a one-sided rally.
Until these two pools of money converge, I will just watch and not act. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) has been listed for only two weeks, and its asset size has directly broken through $500 million.
But guys, this data needs to be broken down; don't be fooled by the surface numbers. Even Grayscale admits: not all this money is new external capital. After excluding the $100 million physical subscription from DCG-related companies, the actual third-party incremental funds are about over $70 million. But from another perspective, ZCSH already holds over 550,000 ZEC, locking nearly 3% of the total circulating supply, absorbing chips quite aggressively.
Why such a sudden surge?
Simply put, it's the "privacy narrative" meeting Wall Street's compliance channels. Now that AI is constantly scraping data and on-chain transactions are becoming more transparent, funds are actually starting to flow toward directions that can hide transactions. Bitwise's investment director directly listed Zcash among the "core assets for the next decade."
⚠️ But there are two pitfalls to warn about:
First is the fee: ZCSH's annual management fee is 2.5%, about ten times that of Bitcoin ETFs, which is costly for long-term holding.
Second is the indicator: ZEC's RSI has long entered the extreme overbought zone. With a portfolio that has risen over 2700% annually, once Grayscale's capital inflow slows down, the correction could be a "halving".
The privacy track entering mainstream view through ETFs is a good story. But the short-term FOMO sentiment is too strong, so be careful not to get burned when taking this bite.
Let's chat in the comments, do you think Zcash can surge to 1500 this round? 👇🔥Got hit last night, will know by 8:30 tonight if it was justified
Last night’s PPI slap made the market cry first: Bitcoin dropped near 77,000, Ethereum retreated to 2,430, and ZEC directly performed a high-altitude free fall.
But I said last night, this hit might not be fully understood.
Overall PPI at 5.4% is indeed hot, but more than half of the heat comes from oil and diesel prices pushing it up; the core month-on-month is only 0.2%, which is below expectations. So tonight at 20:30, the CPI is the real main event: it needs to answer whether inflation is "caused by oil" or "really back."
I have thought through both scenarios. If core CPI cools down, last night’s wave was just an early exit for leveraged players, and the wrongly punished will come back; if CPI heats up again, US Treasury yields will rise, the September 16 rate hike pricing will have to go higher, and Ethereum and altcoins will continue to get beaten. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows #BTC现货ETF连续流出
Latest Data
The US BTC spot ETF has started a continuous multi-day net outflow, with the single-day outflow scale continuously expanding. The market price of $BTC is 76430, under downward pressure. On-exchange long leverage positions are being liquidated one after another, and market cautious sentiment is significantly increasing. Funds are all waiting for tonight's CPI results to be released.
Market Consensus
The bearish view holds that continuous redemptions represent institutional funds actively withdrawing, with a lack of short-term buying support, so the adjustment space will further open;
The neutral view suggests that this round of outflows is more about risk aversion and portfolio adjustment, not a long-term complete exit. Once inflation data eases, funds will quickly flow back.
Underlying Logic Analysis
ETF fund flows represent the marginal attitude of institutions. Continuous outflows will amplify selling pressure on the market, but this is more a result than a root cause. The real factors influencing the current market are inflation data and US Treasury yields. As long as macro pressure is not relieved, even if there is a short-term rebound, resistance above remains significant.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
Personal View (Personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Do not panic sell directly because of ETF outflows, nor rush to bottom-fish. Priority should be given to waiting for tonight's CPI release. After the market gives a clear stabilization signal, then consider increasing positions. Tonight's CPI: Released at 20:30 Beijing Time
I. Why is this CPI so crucial?
1. Prioritize looking at the core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy, representing the underlying inflation stickiness, with much greater impact than the overall CPI)
2. Compare against expectations, not just the absolute level: check if the actual reading is >/=/< the forecast
3. Also consider: housing sub-index (rent is the biggest drag on core inflation), and revisions to previous values
4. Combine with earlier hawkish remarks from Waller + yesterday's PPI exceeding expectations: the market has already priced in a higher probability of a September rate hike, and the CPI will further confirm this expectation
II. Impact of different scenarios on Bitcoin
1. Core CPI > expectations (inflation hotter, hawkish)
Rate hike expectations continue to rise, US Treasury yields climb. BTC under pressure and falls, leveraged positions prone to mass liquidations, rapid decline. Resonates with previous hawkish Waller remarks, strengthening bearish forces.
2. Core CPI meets expectations
Short-term rapid spikes sweeping longs and shorts back and forth, mainly oscillation. Market maintains current rate hike expectations, high volatility but difficult to break out in one direction, awaiting next week's FOMC.
3. Core CPI below expectations (inflation cooling, dovish)
Rate hike expectations retreat, US Treasury yields fall, BTC rebounds short-term for repair, bulls get a breather. But Waller's prior hawkish tone remains, likely a short-term rebound, not necessarily a direct reversal of the major trend. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $BTC $ETH Today's drop in Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH is not due to a major negative event in any single coin, but rather the combined effect of "macro downturn + capital withdrawal + leverage liquidation."
First, macro pressure suddenly intensified.
The escalation of the Middle East situation has pushed oil prices up, with Brent crude nearing $110. High oil prices mean inflationary pressures are rising again. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have clearly increased, currently around 70%. The strengthening dollar and US Treasury yields directly suppress high-risk assets like BTC and ETH.
Second, the market is waiting for tonight's CPI.
This is a typical "risk reduction before data release" scenario. If CPI exceeds expectations, the market will further bet on a hawkish Fed, and risk assets may continue to face pressure.
Third, liquidity is not strong.
Recently, BTC spot ETFs have seen outflows, and ETH funding demand has cooled, indicating profit-taking after the previous rally.
Fourth, leverage amplifies the decline.
Previously heavy long positions in BTC and ETH triggered stop-losses and forced liquidations during the drop, creating a chain of "price drop → liquidation → further drop." In the past 24 hours, liquidations have been dominated by longs.
In short: the fundamentals have not collapsed; rather, the market is preemptively trading "inflation + rate hikes + risk events." Tonight's CPI is the real directional selector.At 8:30 PM Beijing Time tonight, the U.S. August CPI data will be released. Overall, the probability of the data being negative for financial markets is currently above 90%. The market is facing a potentially dangerous combination of Friday + bearish economic data + a high probability of further rate hikes, creating a triple-risk window that could trigger another “Black Friday.” Yesterday’s PPI report was, objectively speaking, not that bad. The overall data was bearish for markets, but only mil