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#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction PPI surges, the Federal Reserve trapped in an inflation dilemma
August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, hitting a new high this year, shattering market hopes for a rate cut overnight, and September rate hike expectations suddenly surged. However, a closer look at this round of inflation reveals many persistent supply-side issues that monetary policy alone cannot resolve quickly. Oil prices are climbing steadily due to the Red Sea conflict, refineries are damaged, and maritime transport is blocked; all these are real supply constraints. Rate hikes can only suppress private demand but cannot restore production capacity or clear shipping routes, leaving supply-side problems unresolved.
The Federal Reserve is now in a dilemma. If it insists on raising rates, it can curb inflationary pressures but will inevitably hurt consumption and corporate investment and financing, risking economic downturn; if it holds steady, persistent stubborn inflation will undermine the Fed's policy credibility, making both choices difficult.
From the crypto market perspective, PPI has already sounded an early warning to the market. The subsequently released core CPI monthly rate rose again, showing inflation stickiness clearly. The market is currently in a typical phase of sentiment recovery after bad news has been absorbed; BTC and ETH have warmed up somewhat, but do not mistake this for a trend reversal. In an inflation environment caused by supply disruptions, data will repeatedly disturb the market, and a rally can easily be knocked back by hawkish remarks.
Some altcoins have seen pulse rallies driven by sentiment, but such moves usually come fast and go fast, so blind chasing of highs is not advisable. Next week's FOMC meeting along with the dot plot will be the key to determining the short- and medium-term direction. Even though the market is warming up now, do not forget the macro risks; strictly control leverage and do not gamble on a one-sided bet based on a temporary rise.#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction PPI surges, the Federal Reserve trapped in an inflation dilemma
August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, hitting a new high this year, shattering market hopes for a rate cut overnight, and September rate hike expectations suddenly surged. However, a closer look at this round of inflation reveals many persistent supply-side issues that monetary policy alone cannot resolve quickly. Oil prices are climbing steadily due to the Red Sea conflict, refineries are damaged, and maritime transport is blocked; all these are real supply constraints. Rate hikes can only suppress private demand but cannot restore production capacity or clear shipping routes, leaving supply-side problems unresolved.
The Federal Reserve is now in a dilemma. If it insists on raising rates, it can curb inflationary pressures but will inevitably hurt consumption and corporate investment and financing, risking economic downturn; if it holds steady, persistent stubborn inflation will undermine the Fed's policy credibility, making both choices difficult.
From the crypto market perspective, PPI has already sounded an early warning to the market. The subsequently released core CPI monthly rate rose again, showing inflation stickiness clearly. The market is currently in a typical phase of sentiment recovery after bad news has been absorbed; BTC and ETH have warmed up somewhat, but do not mistake this for a trend reversal. In an inflation environment caused by supply disruptions, data will repeatedly disturb the market, and a rally can easily be knocked back by hawkish remarks.
Some altcoins have seen pulse rallies driven by sentiment, but such moves usually come fast and go fast, so blind chasing of highs is not advisable. Next week's FOMC meeting along with the dot plot will be the key to determining the short- and medium-term direction. Even though the market is warming up now, do not forget the macro risks; strictly control leverage and do not gamble on a one-sided bet based on a temporary rise.After tonight's CPI release, crypto first dropped then recovered, overall still digesting bearish sentiment.
August total CPI monthly rate 0.4%, annual rate 3.4%, roughly as expected. Core monthly rate 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, annual rate 2.4% unchanged. Core inflation is a bit hot, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike next week has risen again, the dollar and US Treasury yields are moving up, risk appetite is being suppressed first.
Crypto market instantaneous reaction: BTC data first hit around 76000, quickly recovered to 76900-77000; ETH also surged then pulled back, still hovering around 2450. Volume did not explode, more like leveraged positions were shaken out, not a one-sided dump.
Don't rush to bottom-fish in the next few days. BTC first watch if 76500 can hold as support, if broken, 76200 is next; ETH watch 2406. If it can't hold, reduce positions, don't chase rebounds amid rising rate hike expectations. For those already holding, treat tonight's surge and pullback as digestion, leveraged positions especially need to be trimmed. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $BTC $ETH $ZEC US August CPI released: Overall CPI met expectations, but core CPI monthly rate at 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, indicating inflation stickiness beyond expectations.
Core CPI annual rate fell to 2.4%, hitting a new low since April 2021.
👉Interpretation: Year-on-year inflation continues to decline, but month-on-month rebounds; Fed rate cut expectations further cool down, leaning hawkish.
Positive for the US dollar, negative for gold, US stocks, and crypto assets.US August CPI released: Overall CPI met expectations, but core CPI monthly rate at 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, indicating inflation stickiness beyond expectations.
Core CPI annual rate fell to 2.4%, hitting a new low since April 2021.
👉Interpretation: Year-on-year inflation continues to decline, but month-on-month rebounds; Fed rate cut expectations further cool down, leaning hawkish.
Positive for the US dollar, negative for gold, US stocks, and crypto assets.Core CPI rose by 0.3%, so why didn't Bitcoin crash but instead stabilized? 🤔
At 8:30, the data was released, let's clarify the numbers first: August overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, as expected; core year-on-year was 2.4%, also as expected and even down from the previous 2.5%; the only glaring point was the core month-on-month at 0.3%, higher than expected, mainly driven by energy. Once the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September locked in around 73%, basically set in stone.
Normally, a core month-on-month exceeding expectations is bearish, and Bitcoin should drop, but what actually happened? The price hovered around 77,100, with the decline narrowing to less than 1%. The low point of 76,450 hammered during the day was never retested, showing a "bad news priced in, no drop but stabilization" pattern.
But don't forget PPI already exploded a couple of days ago, with Bitcoin dropping for two consecutive days from above 79,000, breaking through 77,000 down to 76,450. The rate hike panic was mostly priced in then, and the bulls who needed to be shaken out were already shaken out. When the real CPI came out, although the core month-on-month looked bad, the year-on-year was trending down and the overall data was in line, meaning "bad, but not catastrophically bad." The previous shorts took profits on the data, lightening selling pressure, so the price held up.
Next, watch two points: 76,350 is the all-in cost line, 76,270 is the technical iron bottom. As long as it doesn't break below 76,270 tonight, this "second bottom test without break" is a bullish signal. Once the September FOMC bad news is fully priced in, a rebound to 80,000 is possible; if the US stock market opens with a crash and breaks below 76,270, then the rate hike pricing needs to be reassessed, with a downside target of 75,000 $ETH. #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction. After the PPI surge, the Federal Reserve is trapped in a structural inflation dilemma.
The US August PPI year-on-year rose 5.4%, hitting a new high for the year, significantly exceeding market expectations. The rebound in producer inflation is mainly driven by energy and commodity prices; core PPI month-on-month rose 0.2%, slightly below expectations. The PPI data shattered the market's previous rate cut fantasies, and the expectation for a rate hike in September quickly intensified.
But the core contradiction is clear: a large part of this inflation round is a supply-side issue, and rate hikes have limitations in addressing it. Oil prices are rising due to Red Sea geopolitical conflicts, and the Fed's rate hikes cannot suppress crude oil prices; refinery equipment failures and blockages in the Red Sea shipping route are real supply chain obstacles that monetary policy cannot directly fix. Rate hikes can only suppress demand but cannot solve supply shortages.
This is the Fed's current dilemma. Supply disruptions continue to transmit outward, pushing up PPI and CPI data; if rate hikes are chosen, consumption and business investment will be hit, risking dragging the economy into weakness; if rates remain unchanged, persistent inflation will erode policy credibility.
Mapping this to the crypto market, the PPI data has already served as a warning to the market. CPI rebounded again month-on-month, confirming inflation stickiness. The market is currently in a phase of sentiment repair after bad news has landed, with BTC and ETH slightly strengthening, but this does not mean macro pressures have been completely eliminated. Next week's FOMC meeting and dot plot are the real indicators of direction.Interest rate hike expectations rise. Overall CPI monthly rate 0.4%, annual rate 3.4%, all in line with market expectations
⚠️ Core CPI (Fed's key indicator) monthly rate 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, the highest since May this year; core CPI annual rate 2.4%, declining for three consecutive months.
Core inflation rose month-on-month, indicating inflation stickiness remains. The market bets that the Fed's pace of rate cuts will slow down, which is short-term bearish for stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, and boosts the US dollar. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% year-on-year in August, exactly matching market expectations and the July reading. The downward trend in inflation, which started from a high of 4.2% in May, has stalled around the 3.4% level. Core CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, a slight narrowing of 0.1 percentage points from July's 2.5%, in line with expectations, but still about 0.4 percentage points above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
Brent crude oil prices broke through $107 in August, with international oil prices climbing sharply within a month, as supply-side pressures continue to transmit to the consumer end; the unexpectedly high August PPI released on the same day further confirms this transmission path. The marginal cooling of core inflation indicates that domestic demand-side pressures have somewhat eased against the backdrop of slowing credit card spending and retail sales. The opposing forces from these two directions have caused the overall inflation reading to remain stuck near 3.4%.
The CPI reading fully met expectations, neither providing a clear reason to pause rate hikes nor triggering new signals for more aggressive tightening. The balance of the decision-making window has not tilted as a result. The Federal Reserve has held the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75% for two consecutive times since June 2026. Whether the September 15-16 meeting will restart rate hikes will largely depend on policymakers' judgment of the persistence of energy prices. If oil prices remain high and inflation consolidates around 3.4%, the possibility of further tightening by the Fed within the year cannot be ruled out. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 CPI is out, the market first dropped then pulled back, quite interesting.
August CPI overall met expectations, but core CPI month-on-month 0.3% > expected 0.2%, the data is actually slightly hawkish.
The first wave of direct sell-off is normal, as rate hike expectations heat up.
But the market quickly pulled back, indicating that bad news has already been priced in to a large extent, core year-on-year still dropped from 2.5% to 2.4%, plus oil prices clearly fell today, funds are starting to re-enter risk assets.
Currently still holding long BTC positions.
Data is bearish, but price doesn't fall, this kind of trend is actually worth paying attention to.
Risk warning: next week's Fed rate decision is the real big test, short-term volatility remains high.
Controlling position size is the secret to trading
$BTC $ETH $SOL The US CPI has been released, and the market is a bit awkward this time.
August CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, month-on-month 0.4%, basically in line with expectations, but core CPI month-on-month rose to 0.3%, slightly higher than expected. Coupled with yesterday's stronger-than-expected PPI, the Fed's rate cut expectations for next week have clearly been suppressed.
For $BTC, short-term pressure definitely remains, but what is most feared now is not hawkish data, but that the negative news has already been priced in by the market.
BTC is currently around 76,000. If it continues to break recent lows, I won’t rush to catch the falling knife; if after the negative news the price stabilizes or even quickly recovers lost ground, this kind of movement is worth paying attention to, as it may signal a wave of sentiment reversal.AI is once again becoming one of the hottest topics in crypto. But I'm interested in something else: if AI really continues to grow, where exactly in this chain will the token earn? Because the name "AI token" can hide anything today: GPU infrastructure, decentralized inference, AI agents, data protocols, or just beautiful marketing. That's why I decided to look at this topic through 5 arguments for and 5 AGAINST. 🟢 5 Reasons Why AI Could Be a New Wave 1. AI is no longer just a narrative. Agents are gradually executingThe moment I saw SOL repeatedly rubbing around 99, I stared at the market for a long time. Why is there firework on the chain but the price seems to be being suppressed? The whale countered the trend by sweeping 9.11 million coins, while retail investors were exiting. This scene is actually quite subtle—not just a simple bull-bear battle, but more like a quiet period before an event repricing. Today, SOL's on-chain data was indeed explosive: 263,000 tokens issued in a single day, a record high, TVL surpassing 12.4 billion, daily revenue of 5.09 million USD, ranking first online, RWA trading volume 14.7 billion, accounting for 32% of the market, and ETFs net inflows for 10 consecutive weeks. Any of these numbers is enough to boast about, but the price is stuck at 99. What is the market trading? What is the market trading is ongoing? The macro hand hasn't loosened yet. Oil prices breaking 100, rate hike expectations pulling back, and derivatives deleveraging — these three factors weigh down the entire risk appetite, not just SOL's alone. But note, on-chain fundamentals are accumulating, prices are digesting; historically, this divergence is often not a bad thing, just waiting for a trigger point. The path to bullish is clear: once macro pressure weakens, SOL's on-chain advantage will be repriced; ETFs continue accumulating shares, indicating institutions haven't left; whales buying against the trend means smart money is positioning ahead of time. If the altcoin season returns, SOL will most likely be a front-row contender because of its narrative density and actual usage. But the risk has not disappeared. Record token issuance volume means potential increased selling pressure, and the sustainability of the meme craze is questionable. If macro conditions continue to deteriorate, deleveraging may spread from derivatives to spot trading, and holding the 99 level may not holdSOL is currently around 99.3. It dropped to 98.4 yesterday, touched 100.5 today but couldn't break through, and has been grinding between 98.6 and 100.5. Once the CPI is released tonight, this range is the most likely to be pierced or see a false breakout in one go, so don't try to guess the direction based on today's slight fluctuations.
If the core CPI hits 0.3%, interest rates and the dollar will rise first, and SOL will most likely pull back to 98.4. If 98.4 doesn't hold, the next drop will target 97. In this kind of market, the first spike is usually about liquidity, and the second spike determines direction, so don't go all in on the first move.
If the core CPI is around 0.2%, it's mostly still a shakeout. Only if it closes back above 100.5 will there be a chance to challenge the 105 resistance level; if it doesn't, selling pressure remains. Weekend trading is thinner, and there will be more false spikes after the data release.
If the core CPI is clearly below 0.2%, risk assets have room for a rebound. Even then, 100.5 must be firmly taken out first; if 105 isn't fully absorbed, chasing longs in mid-air just helps others.
Focus on two levels: 98.4 and 100.5. Let the positions clear after the data release before placing orders. $SOL The real trouble with CPI: US inflation is falling, but oil prices are pushing it back up
US housing inflation dropped from 3.2% to 3% in August, and food inflation fell from 3% to 2.7%, indicating that internal inflation is not completely out of control.
The Federal Reserve usually won't hastily raise interest rates just because of a short-term rise in oil prices, but once high oil prices transmit to transportation, goods, and inflation expectations, combined with strong employment and previously overheated PPI, the Fed must consider whether not raising rates again will cause it to lose inflation credibility.
Currently, Polymarket gives about an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, and CME futures pricing is also around 70%. The market is no longer trading on whether the economy is strong, but on whether the Fed dares to continue tolerating inflation.
For $BTC, the greater pressure in the coming week may appear before the rate hike is implemented. High US Treasury yields, a relatively strong dollar, and leveraged funds withdrawing will all suppress the rebound's height.
My judgment is still to first guard against a dip, then look for recovery.
$75,000-$76,000 is the first line of defense; holding this gives a chance to rebound to $78,000-$80,000.
If the rate hike happens but the tone is dovish, BTC may experience a sell-the-news, buy-the-fact scenario; if the Fed continues hawkishness, after losing $75,000, $72,400 or even $70,000 must be reconsidered.
Don't rush to call it good news just because housing and food inflation are down. How the data changes is one thing; whether it can change the Fed's decision is what the market truly cares about. #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction.
CPI will be released tonight at 20:30. The market expects overall year-on-year at 3.4%, core year-on-year at 2.4%, and core month-on-month at 0.2%. Oil prices just broke $100, and the energy component will likely push the overall reading higher, but the Fed focuses on the core excluding energy.
Three possible scenarios. Core month-on-month ≤ 0.1%, the probability of a rate hike drops from 71.3%, BTC may rebound to 78,500-79,000. Core month-on-month at 0.2%, continued tug-of-war, oscillating in the 76,000-78,000 range. Core month-on-month ≥ 0.3%, a September rate hike is basically confirmed, and the 76,000 support will be directly tested.
CME has already pushed the rate hike probability to 71.3%, pricing in most of the hawkish expectations. This means if CPI is just "in line with expectations," it could actually be a relief sell-off. The real risk lies in an upside surprise.CPI Grounded Review｜CPI Monthly Rate Rebounds, Market Divergence Intensifies
August US CPI data released: Core CPI annual rate at 2.4%, in line with market expectations; however, core CPI monthly rate reached 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, hitting a new high since May this year. Total CPI monthly rate is 0.4%, with an annual rate steady at 3.4%. Year-on-year data seems to decline, but month-on-month inflation stickiness rises. The rate hike option at next week's FOMC meeting remains open.
The market shows clear divergence, not a broad-based rally. BTC closed slightly higher, holding near 77600; ETH showed stronger elasticity, rising over 2.5%; $RAY exploded, surging 20.11%, with funds flowing into some altcoins betting on bearish news landing; ZEC slightly retreated against the trend, with profit-taking at high levels; IOST and similar coins experienced a sharp drop, falling over 12%.
This divergence should be taken seriously, representing a typical "bearish news landing" sentiment repair, not the start of a full bull market. Month-on-month inflation strengthening means the Fed still retains room for rate hikes. The real test for the market lies in next week's rate decision, dot plot, and officials' speeches.
Some altcoin pulses are short-term fund speculation, with sustainability in doubt. LAB unlocks tomorrow, combined with the current volatile environment, risks cannot be ignored. ZEC, after a huge rise, continues to see increasing high-level chip divergence.
Landing does not mean risk is eliminated; liquidity volatility during data windows is huge, with frequent stop-loss sweeps. Short-term speculation can be participated in, but leverage positions must be conservative. Do not directly judge the rebound as a reversal #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 📂 20U Real Account Record 031
💰 Principal: 20U
📈 This Trade Profit: Currently at a floating loss
✅ Cumulative Profit: +43U
📌 Current Position: $SOL
SOL has climbed back above 100, current price 100.89, my entry price 103.53. Although not fully recovered yet, it has rebounded from the low of 98.33, so this dip can be considered held up.
Today, there are two on-chain data points I find more important than the price itself.
First, the number of Solana's RWA (Real World Asset) holders has surpassed 400,000 for the first time, while in January this year it was less than 10,000. This growth rate indicates that real assets are rapidly accumulating on-chain, not just speculative funds.
Second, yesterday Solana added 263,000 new SPL tokens in a single day, setting a record high. During the hottest period of Meme coins in December 2024, the daily average was only about 40,000 to 50,000.
Price is falling, but on-chain activity is rising. This divergence is worth noting.
From a technical perspective:
101.87 is the 20-day Bollinger Band middle line, and currently SOL is fighting around this level. The strong resistance zone is between 109-110 above, and the lower Bollinger Band is at 94.70.
Today’s rebound from 98.33 means it has temporarily escaped the danger zone. But with CPI just released, thin liquidity over the weekend, and the Fed meeting next week, the real direction may only become clear after the policy meeting.
This trade has recovered from the deepest floating loss back close to the cost line, at least proving that the 98 support is temporarily effective.
20U small account, continuing to hold and wait for direction CPI data exceeded expectations, clearly bad news, yet the market is pulling up instead—this is the most counterintuitive aspect of the crypto world.
First, the market is not trading the data itself, but the expectations.
Previously, PPI was high, so the market had already mentally prepared; everyone had preset the expectation that CPI would be bad. When the data came out, it wasn’t worse than expected; the worst case has already materialized, the boot has dropped, panic disappeared, and a "bad news fully priced in" rebound occurred.
Second, contract positions are causing trouble.
Right after the data release, there was a quick dump to sweep out a bunch of short positions and stop losses. Many shorts couldn’t hold and were forced to close positions, short covering pushed the price up. This rise doesn’t necessarily mean bullish sentiment; it’s more about shaking out the shorts.
Third, the game of big money.
Macro bearish factors remain, but there are still many bottom-fishing funds in the market. Seeing the data confirmed and uncertainty gone, some enter to speculate on the subsequent market.
But be clear: a rebound does not equal a reversal. The bearish fundamentals haven’t disappeared; they are just temporarily overshadowed by capital.
Simply put: bad news landing doesn’t mean an immediate big drop.
There might be a rebound first; after this rebound finishes, the bearish pressure will gradually reemerge. Don’t assume the bearish factors are completely invalid just because of a price rise—this kind of market easily leads to getting slapped back and forth. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction
The data is out. Honestly, this CPI set is a bit hard to grasp.
US August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, unchanged from July, and increased 0.4% month-over-month. Core CPI fell to 2.4% year-over-year, the lowest since March 2021, but rose 0.3% month-over-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%. Gasoline rose 3.9% in a single month, contributing more than one-third of the overall increase, and housing rebounded from 0.1% to 0.3%. Inflation is neither out of control nor clearly cooling down.
For the crypto space, the key is not the year-over-year integer, but next week's interest rate meeting. Yesterday's PPI was already on the hot side, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike still hovers around 70%. Core inflation is still declining, but oil prices, housing, and month-over-month data make it difficult for the Fed to pivot immediately. Real interest rates are approaching 5%, making interest-free Bitcoin more expensive. ETFs have seen net outflows these days, and leveraged longs are being liquidated first. BTC is under pressure near 77,000, and altcoins are falling more sharply.
This CPI seems more like confirming one thing: macro is still winding up risk assets. The real decisive moment is the September 16 FOMC. Before that, rather than betting on a sentiment reversal after CPI, it's better to watch whether US bond yields will stand above 5% and whether the rate hike probability will be revised upward again.
That's all from Brother Ci, savor it. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Tonight, the CPI is out. Of the four main data points, three met expectations, and the core CPI monthly rate was slightly higher. The market originally expected 0.2%, but the result was 0.3%. Year-on-year declines are still underway, but prices accelerated this month. Is this data good or bad? Can US stocks and the crypto sector rebound? Let's talk about Yun's views on this matter. Yun believes this data tends to put pressure on the market. Core inflation fell year-on-year in line with expectations, and core month-on-month exceeded expectations, which will make the Fed continue to worry about inflation. Let's discuss in detail below. 1. Where exactly did CPI exceed this time? Published indicators expected previous value Overall CPI year-on-year 3.4% 3.4% Overall CPI month-on-month 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Core CPI year-on-year 2.4% 2.5% Core CPI month-on-month 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Overall CPI month-on-month rose from 0.1% to 0.4%, a clear increase, but the market had already anticipated it. The 0.1 percentage point gap in the core monthly rate is where this data exceeded expectations. Excluding food and energy, the price increase continued to accelerate, indicating that the pressure for the month was also reflected in other consumer items. 2. Year-on-year decline: Why is the market still worried? Core year-on-year growth fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, and the growth over the past year has indeed slowed. However, year-on-year growth includes changes over the past twelve months, and the previous month's gains are excluded from calculation, which also affects the resultsThe market never trades the data itself, but the gap between the data and expectations. The September CPI was slightly higher than expected, with the excess limited; looking at the data alone is insufficient to reverse any trend. What is noteworthy is on the other side: the interest rate hike expectation has been pushed to 90%, indicating that the previous decline was not the market digesting this inflation, but a worse scenario than reality. The actual outcome is lighter than the assumption, so the rebound follows—prices stabilize ahead of the data, confirming that the prior sell-off exceeded what fundamentals required.
This logic is even clearer when applied to $DOGE. DOGE is sensitive to liquidity and sentiment; it bears pressure when tightening is expected and shows greater elasticity when expectations improve. This round, it rose with the broader market, relying not on its own new news but on the slight easing of the burden over risk assets. Musk's statements and DOGE ecosystem progress provide a long-term narrative, but short-term pricing power still lies in macro factors.
Therefore, what to watch is not the decimal deviation in CPI, but the pendulum of expectations. With a 90% interest rate hike expectation, there is little room left for bad news; as long as the data remains "slightly high," the pendulum swings back, and Dogecoin's recovery often leads the way. The August CPI data came out tonight, slightly bearish for crypto but not a total blowout.
Overall CPI monthly rate is 0.4%, annual rate 3.4%, basically in line with expectations. The trouble is the core CPI monthly rate at 0.3%, which is significantly higher than the expected 0.2%, while the annual rate at 2.4% is still okay. The market immediately pushed up the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike next week, lifting the dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets initially.
The crypto market reacted typically: BTC first dropped to around 76,000, then quickly pulled back to the 76,900-77,000 range; ETH also surged briefly before retreating. The short-term move is just an emotional purge, not a one-way crash.
In the next few days, watch two things. First, the FOMC next week—if the core remains hot, rate hike expectations will harden, keeping liquidity tight. Second, whether BTC can hold around 76,500 and ETH around 2,406. If they can't hold, consider trimming positions; don't chase the rebound right after the data release. For those already holding, treat tonight’s spike and pullback as digestion, and avoid levering up to tough it out. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $BTC $ETH CPI released, basically in line with expectations!
But the core CPI month-on-month ≥0.3%, so it strengthened the rate hike expectations for next week, and the market has already priced in a 90% probability of a rate hike.
The recent continuous market pullbacks have already digested this rate hike expectation; the market is truly worried about consecutive rate hikes, not just this one.
So overall, the rebound of $BTC started, the spike to 76k just hit the key support! Oracle’s latest earnings show the market is starting to reward real AI execution, not just hype. AI cloud revenue jumped 121% YoY, while RPO climbed to $664B and guidance improved. Adobe also beat estimates, yet shares fell as investors demand stronger AI monetization and cash flow. For BTC, massive AI capex keeps liquidity expansion relevant, but near-term direction still depends on inflation, rates, and tonight’s CPI. Execution matters more than promisesCPI explodes! Core inflation exceeds expectations, September rate hike probability soars to 90%
1. Data Breakdown: Inflation rises across the board
① Overall CPI monthly rate +0.4% (in line with expectations), gasoline cost rebound is the main cause; annual rate 3.4%, unchanged from last month.
② Core CPI monthly rate +0.3%, higher than the expected +0.2%, energy shocks have begun to transmit to core inflation.
③ Combined with strong Thursday PPI and last week's nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 far exceeding expectations, the three data points resonate.
2. Market Reaction: Rate hike expectations surge
① After the inflation data release, the market expects the Federal Reserve's rate hike probability next week to soar to about 90%.
② The rate cut fantasy is completely shattered, US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar strengthens, and risk asset valuations are under comprehensive pressure.
3. Impact on the crypto market
① Rate hike expectations suppress, BTC/ETH face a new round of selling pressure tests in the short term.
② Funds tend to stay on the sidelines before the policy meeting, rebound resistance is huge, and it is difficult to have a trending market in the short term.
③ Operationally, control your hands, do not blindly bottom-fish, do not catch falling knives during declines, wait for the policy meeting results next week before deciding the direction.
In a word: Inflation has not retreated, the rate hike sword hangs high. BTC still needs to endure in the short term, waiting for the Federal Reserve's final decision.
$BTC $ETH $BTC in the evening, it seems the bullish view is correct,
Currently holding long positions on BTC,
$ETH
Long position on Ethereum at 2417, now at 2493 directly closing the position, reversing to short. Target 2460
#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
#BTC spot ETF continuous outflows BTC stuck at 77,000, this CPI is half sugar and half knife
The data landing is like opening a two-layer box, the upper layer is sugar, the lower layer hides a knife. $BTC stuck at 77,000 is not rushing to choose a direction because both bulls and bears have caught half.
Sugar in the annual rate: overall CPI year-on-year 3.4% meets expectations, core year-on-year dropped to 2.4%, declining for three consecutive months, hitting a new low since April 2021, the big trend of inflation is retreating. Knife in the monthly rate: core month-on-month 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, the highest in 5 months, the pace of decline has stalled in the past month. Once the data came out, the dollar briefly rose about 20 points, gold fell back, the market first recognized the "knife".
On the crypto side, BTC is tugging at 77,000, $ETH stable around 2,460, SOL still at the 100 threshold, DOGE stuck at 0.083 without recovery. The cooling annual rate is distant water, unable to save the near-term heat of the month-on-month rate, the suspense of next week's rate hike has not been removed.
If the US stock market opens and holds, BTC rallies back above 78,000 with volume, the sugar will ferment, SOL and $DOGE will rebound; if the dollar continues to strengthen and BTC breaks 76,000, the knife will fall, high beta will take the hit first. Don't draw conclusions by only looking at half.Full Data Overview: Surface Meets Expectations, Core Month-on-Month "Hidden Risk"
Indicator Actual Value Expected Value Previous Value
CPI Year-on-Year +3.4% +3.4% +3.4%
CPI Month-on-Month +0.4% +0.4% +0.1%
Core CPI Year-on-Year +2.4% +2.4% +2.5%
Core CPI Month-on-Month +0.3% +0.2% +0.2%
Data Source:
On the surface, both overall CPI and core CPI year-on-year fully meet expectations. However, the core CPI month-on-month recorded 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, marking the highest since May this year.
This is the most critical figure tonight. Core CPI excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, directly reflecting underlying inflation pressure. A 0.3% month-on-month increase means inflation pressure is spreading from the energy sector to core goods and services — exactly confirming the "stickiness of core inflation" warned by Federal Reserve Chair Powell at Jackson Hole.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Just said to follow the smart money to short, and this market slapped me directly.
Looking at the chart below, it's a full V-shaped rebound. BTC surged from 76,001 straight up to 77,713, ETH pulled back sharply from 2,405 to 2,505, and SOL was the most aggressive, rebounding from 97.90 to above 101. The big bullish candles shot up, those who chased shorts just now are probably trapped inside again.
Looking at the news in the screenshot, it's all on the warm side. Metaplanet will set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong as an Asian trading hub, clearly signaling plans to accumulate more BTC. Standard Chartered Bank issued a report optimistic about SKY token rising to $0.325 by the end of 2028, five times the current price, clearly supporting the Ethereum ecosystem narrative.
The market was still crazily pricing in rate hikes, with interest rate futures plunging and the probability of a September hike soaring to 90%. Normally, such a macro hammer would have broken BTC's support long ago. But what happened? As soon as the shorts rushed in, this violent rally blew them out clean.
This market is like this: when everyone thinks rate hikes must cause a drop and follows the smart money to short, that's often when the big players are closing their nets. The smart money made a killing going long ETH last time, now going short BTC, maybe hedging with macro moves. Retail investors blindly copying will only get wiped out.
I'm not stubborn anymore. Since the V-shaped rebound has started, I respect the market. For now, no catching falling knives, no blind chasing longs. Tonight, let's see if BTC can hold above 78,000. Only if it holds can we talk about a reversal; if not, it's a bull trap.🔥 US August CPI heats up beyond expectations! Core CPI accelerates month-on-month, will BTC fall or is the bad news already priced in?
□□ US August CPI
CPI month-on-month +0.4% +0.1% ↑
CPI year-on-year +3.4% +3.4% unchanged
Core CPI month-on-month +0.3% +0.2% ↑
Core CPI year-on-year +2.4% +2.5% ↓
🔥 Key highlights
1️⃣ CPI month-on-month clearly accelerates
From 0.1% in July → 0.4%, inflationary pressure resurfaces.
2️⃣ Core CPI month-on-month rises to 0.3%
This is hotter than the market's hoped-for 0.2%, indicating that price pressures remain after excluding energy and food.
3️⃣ But core CPI year-on-year falls to 2.4%
This is a relatively favorable aspect, showing that core inflation is still slowly declining on an annual basis.
4️⃣ Gasoline is a major driver of this CPI increase
August gasoline price index rose 3.9%, energy index rose 2.1%.
📌 My judgment
This CPI report is:
"Overall inflation is on the hotter side, but core year-on-year continues to cool down"
This is not a very comfortable data point for the Federal Reserve.
Short-term market impact: bearish for BTC, bearish for US stocks.
Especially if the market had previously priced in a Fed rate cut, then **core CPI month-on-month 0.3%** may suppress rate cut expectations, supporting the US dollar and US Treasury yields. 根据最新公布的数据，2026年9月11日发布的美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）具体结果如下：
整体CPI：同比增长 3.4%，与前值及市场预期一致 。
核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）：同比增长 2.4%，符合市场预期，但较前值（2.5%）有所回落 。
核心CPI环比：增长 0.3%，略高于市场此前0.2%的预期 。
数据背后的主要驱动因素：
此次整体CPI的反弹主要受到能源价格（如汽油价格）上涨的推动 。不过，剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心通胀的总体趋势仍在回落，住房成本降温等因素起到了关键作用 。
对美联储政策的影响：
这份数据是美联储9月议息会议前的最后一份关键通胀报告。由于核心CPI环比涨幅（0.3%）略超预期，且此前公布的非农就业数据强劲，市场对于美联储在9月重启加息的预期显著升温。不过，核心通胀同比降至2.4%也给美联储维持利率不变提供了一定空间，最终决策将取决于美联储对通胀压力是否扩散的评估 。$BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Bitcoin is holding near the $77K–$78K zone, but the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to macro data. The big catalyst today is U.S. CPI. Yesterday’s PPI came in hot, with producer prices rising 5.4% year-over-year, while surging oil prices are adding another layer of inflation pressure. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield close to 5%. Markets are now pricing roughly a 67–70% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike next week. That creates a diff$ETH This time I will treat it as a position in the altcoin market to buy
$ETH is currently around $2460.
My reasons for buying ETH are completely different from $BTC.
For BTC, I look at the overall market direction; for ETH, I care more about whether, after the CPI risk passes, the market turns Risk-on again,and whether funds will flow again from BTC to ETH and altcoins.
Previously, ETH spot ETFs have already seen significant capital inflows again, and currently about one-third of ETH supply August CPI Released: Core CPI Monthly Rate Hits Highest Since May This Year
US August inflation data released: Unadjusted core CPI annual rate at 2.4%, in line with expectations, previous value 2.50%; core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, above the expected 0.2%, marking the highest since May this year.
Seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate 0.4%, in line with expectations, previous value 0.10%; unadjusted CPI annual rate 3.4%, matching expectations.
Overall, year-on-year decline, but core inflation rebounded month-on-month, reflecting persistent inflation stickiness. Energy price increases drove overall price rise, and resilience in service and housing prices remains. After data release, the market repriced rate hike risks, US Treasury yields and the dollar fluctuated, and the crypto market saw a rebound with clear warming of on-exchange long sentiment.
It is important to distinguish that this round of rise is a short-term sentiment recovery after data release, not indicating that macro pressure is fully relieved. Core CPI month-on-month exceeding expectations means the possibility of a rate hike at the September meeting next week remains high; it cannot be directly concluded that rate hike expectations have peaked.
In the crypto market, the current trading logic is "bad news priced in," with funds speculating on next week's FOMC decision. Short-term bullish sentiment is warming, but caution is still needed: if the meeting signals a hawkish stance, the market could easily reverse again.
After BTC and ETH rebound, key support and resistance levels need to be reassessed; LAB unlocks $BTC tomorrow #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 US August CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, unchanged from July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. Core CPI year-on-year fell to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, but the month-on-month 0.3% is slightly higher than the common market expectation of 0.2%. Gasoline rose 3.9% in a single month, contributing more than one-third of the overall increase; housing also rebounded from 0.1% to 0.3%. The data does not indicate "out-of-control inflation," nor can it be described as "significantly cooling down." For the crypto space, the key is not this year-on-year integer, but the interest rate decision next week. Yesterday's PPI was already on the hot side, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike remains around 70%. The core is still trending down, but oil prices, housing, and month-on-month figures make it difficult for the Fed to pivot immediately. Real interest rates are close to 5%, making yieldless Bitcoin more expensive; ETFs have seen net outflows in recent days, and leveraged longs are being liquidated first. BTC is under pressure near $77,000, and altcoins are even more fragile.
This CPI report seems more like a confirmation: macro is still winding up risk assets. The real pricing point is the September 16 FOMC. Before that, rather than betting on a sentiment reversal after the CPI, it is better to watch whether US Treasuries can hold above 5% and whether the rate hike probability will be revised upward again. 💥💥💥CPI "0.3% Threshold"
August CPI: Year-over-year 3.4%, month-over-month 0.4%, all within expectations; but core month-over-month 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%—this is the critical decimal point.
JPMorgan drew the line early: 0.2% means no change, 0.3% means a rate hike. CME tools show a 67.4% probability of a 25bp rate hike in September. Coupled with PPI year-over-year at 5.4% and oil prices breaking $100, the rate hike on 9/16 is basically locked in.
For the crypto circle: BTC has retreated to 76,000–77,000, ETFs have continuous net outflows, and short-term pressure remains. But don't forget the market's old script—"rate hike realization" often means the worst is over. The real direction awaits Fed Chair Powell's speech on 9/16.#LAPTOPCrash99%
Whenever I sweep away the layers of ash scorched by fierce flames with a hand shovel and brush in the excavation pit, I can always smell the same burnt scent as on today's blockchain. LAPTOP completed its funeral ritual of plummeting 99% from $191 within just a few hours, leaving behind another charred remnant of humanity in the digital strata of the Base chain.
A real liquidity pool of $48,000 arrogantly supports a paper fully diluted valuation as high as $144 billion. This absurd structure is no different from the giant stone coins sunk into the deep sea off Yap Island in the Western Pacific, which islanders still account for and transfer out of thin air. It is also the perfect reincarnation of the 1720 British South Sea Bubble in the cyber world. As long as no one truly demands to salvage the giant stones from the deep sea, the illusion of prosperity can circulate freely on clay tablets or ledgers.
Under my archaeological lens, there is nothing new under the sun. The golden age of all paper valuations is built on an extremely fragile illusory consensus: no one must ever demand on-site verification of real gold or redemption of silver. 🏛️
A total supply of 1 billion tokens, with 30% locked in the founders' dark vaults and 20% dispersed in batches under the name of airdrops. This is nothing but an ancient play from the Mesopotamian priests monopolizing temple granaries and controlling the labor of believers with clay chips. When the first airdrop claims are cashed out, the market makers' chips and early profiteers' shovels simultaneously strike the surface, and the thin layer of floating soil, only $48,000 thick, is doomed to collapse instantly into a void fault.
Many blame this disaster on network congestion or matching mechanism flaws. But from a stratigraphic perspective, this is not a technical failure of infrastructure at all, but a contemporary Pompeii site just sealed. The victims gathered in the rubble at the top layer are essentially no different from the ancients thousands of years ago who sacrificed their entire harvest to fictional gods and ultimately froze to death before the altar.
They exchanged real gold and silver for a string of digital inscriptions that cannot bear physical weight, until the ruthless scraper of liquidity exhaustion fell, stripping away all illusory flesh. History has never been a one-way extending line but a cyclical imprint of human weaknesses on different technological carriers. 📜
From the tulip bulbs trampled in 17th century Amsterdam, to the charters reduced to waste paper in London coffeehouses, to today's hundred-billion on-chain ghosts propped up by tens of thousands in capital, all empty reputations without physical backing ultimately turn to dust buried in peat layers millennia deep.#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测
FactSet survey shows that Datadog ($DDOG) has an average rating of Buy, with a target price of $288.05, and analysts are generally bullish.
Datadog focuses on cloud monitoring and observability; the more AI applications and data volume there are, the stronger its demand becomes. This logic is somewhat similar to Oracle — both sell the tools, with revenue visibility better than the application side. However, the SaaS sector is very sensitive to interest rates, and valuation multiples tend to be pressured by macro factors, so whether the target price can be realized depends on the direction of rate hike expectations. It's not surprising that analysts rate it as a Buy; what’s truly worth watching is whether the target price is being raised. If the pace of upgrades accelerates, that signals renewed recognition from investors.In financial markets, blows do not come as a knockout all at once, but rather arrive as successive signals that force everyone to recalculate. Last night witnessed a direct confrontation with the latest inflation data; the figures released on September 10 loudly confirmed that inflationary pressures have begun to awaken again. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for purchase prices in the United States rose by 0.4% month-over-month in August, bringing the annual growth to 5.4%, surpassing market expectations and sparking a heated debate among investors (especially after achieving 7 consecutive wins previously1. Core CPI rose month-over-month, indicating a slower pace of inflation decline, leading the market to lower expectations for rate cuts: the Federal Reserve will not cut rates quickly or significantly.
2. Market interpretation: hawkish bias.
- Negative impact: U.S. stocks, gold, cryptocurrencies (weaker rate cut expectations, making the dollar more likely to strengthen)
- Positive impact: U.S. dollar.Brothers, the CPI data has been released, meeting expectations, but the market hasn't relaxed.
$BTC is currently around $76,900, $ETH around $2,470. August CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, all in line with expectations. After the data release, Bitcoin slightly rebounded.
Why doesn't it rise despite meeting expectations? Because the probability of a rate hike hasn't decreased.
CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September remains as high as 71.3%. CPI just "doesn't add trouble," but it also doesn't give the market a reason for "no rate hike." The 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 4.9%, so the risk asset's threat hasn't been removed.
Liquidation data reveals the market's position structure.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $446 million, with long positions liquidated at $352 million, nearly 80%. Bitcoin long liquidations were $111 million, Ethereum long liquidations $74.01 million. This shows that before the drop, most of the market was betting on a rebound—longs were too crowded, so when it fell, it caused a stampede.
Technical aspect: BTC is testing the key support zone of $76,000-$76,500. ETH's $2,400 is a defense line repeatedly held since September. If these two levels are confirmed broken, the next targets are $75,000 and $2,350.
All data is out, next is the Fed's decision on September 15-16. The market's vote with its feet is: inflation is not out of control, but there's no reason for a rate cut.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 The US August CPI will be released tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time). The market expects headline month-on-month +0.4%, year-on-year 3.4%; core month-on-month +0.2%, year-on-year 2.4%. The headline is very likely to be pushed higher by oil prices, which is not surprising since crude oil has already surged past 100 this week. The real tone-setting for next week's FOMC is the core: 0.2% can still argue for holding, but if it reaches 0.3%, the rate hike expectations will be lifted.
Focus on three components. Energy rebounds about 2.5%, airfares and hotels will follow fuel prices; if rent and owners' equivalent rent remain around 0.22, it indicates stickiness hasn't dissipated; if used cars and apparel continue to decline, the core can be contained. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both put the core around 0.22, Citibank is a bit lower at 0.18. A difference of one decimal point changes the direction of the dollar and US Treasury yields.
Market reactions are straightforward. If the core exceeds expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields rise, gold and Bitcoin are first to be drained, and crude oil may go even crazier in the short term; if the core is close to 0.2%, it will fluctuate back and forth without a clear trend; if the core is significantly below 0.2%, risk assets have a chance to rebound. Don't place orders prematurely assuming "definite rate hike" or "definite hold"; wait for the numbers, look at the core and rent first, then act. $BTC $ETH 🚨 CPI Released!!!
CPI Year-over-Year: 3.4%, in line with expectations
CPI Month-over-Month: 0.4%, in line with expectations
Core CPI Month-over-Month: 0.3%, exceeding expectations!
On the surface, both CPI figures meet expectations, but core inflation is clearly more stubborn. Coupled with yesterday's similarly hot PPI, the inflation backdrop really looks quite unfavorable.
Well, this is great 😂
Market expectations for a rate cut in September continue to be suppressed, while expectations for a rate hike are heating up even more!
Next week’s Fed move, it really looks like it’s coming……
September rate hike expectations: fully loaded!!!$PONS CP2 data is very positive, no hope for a US dollar interest rate hike1. Core CPI rose month-over-month, indicating a slower pace of inflation decline, leading the market to lower expectations for rate cuts: the Federal Reserve will not cut rates quickly or significantly.
2. Market interpretation: hawkish bias.
- Negative impact: U.S. stocks, gold, cryptocurrencies (weaker rate cut expectations, making the dollar more likely to strengthen)
- Positive impact: U.S. dollar.CPI bombshell! Core monthly rate exceeds expectations, BTC at 76000 is hanging by a thread, who dares to catch the falling knife tonight?
Brothers, the data just came out, core CPI monthly rate is 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, hitting a new high since May this year. Rate cuts are completely off the table, not raising rates would be like burning incense.
Don't be fooled by the annual rate of 2.4% hitting a new low since 2021, the monthly rebound is the real killer — inflation is far from eradicated, giving the Fed even more reason to stay hawkish.
BTC is now struggling around 76000, technically extremely oversold, but it has no strength to rebound. Plus, as I mentioned the day before yesterday, altcoin OI surpasses BTC, leverage piled up like a mountain. With this data out, if the market can't hold, a chain liquidation could happen anytime.
My judgment: short-term bearish, definitely not catching the falling knife. With inflation data exceeding expectations, the market will most likely reprice rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets. How much do you earn delivering takeout in a day? Don't feed the dog traders. Wait for this BTC liquidation wave to finish and for stabilization signals before making a move.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 CPI 0.4% MoM, expected 0.4%
CPI Core 0.3% MoM, expected 0.2%
CPI 3.4% YoY, expected 3.4%
CPI Core 2.4% YoY, expected 2.4%
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Today's pain trade might not be bad news it might be being positioned wrong for good news. Shorts have taken the liquidation hit all week, funding's barely positive, sentiment's cooling not stretched. If CPI comes in soft, the crowded short trade is what gets hurt, not the longs everyone's worried about.The latest earnings from Oracle and Adobe are sending a much clearer message to the market: AI alone is no longer enough to drive a stock higher. Investors want proof that AI is translating into contracts, revenue, cash flow and sustainable growth. 🔹 Oracle $ORCL Oracle delivered a powerful Q1 FY2027. Revenue reached $19.3B, up 30% YoY, while total cloud revenue climbed 62% to $11.6B. The real standout was Cloud Infrastructure: 🚀 $7.4B revenue 🚀 +121% YoY 🚀 $664B remaining performance obliga