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The 90-day price correlation between BTC and gold has reached +0.56,
which is the highest level since measurements began in January 2017, surpassing the previous record of +0.5 set in November 2020.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has been left behind.
Honestly, if you simply reduce this to digital gold, that's too superficial—definitely a rookie mistake.
Let me give you the conclusion first: the people buying gold and those buying Bitcoin are actually the same group using the same logic to place their bets.
Think about it: a few years ago, how did big money treat Bitcoin? As high-leverage tech stocks on the Nasdaq, right?
When the stock market rose, it surged; when the stock market fell, it plummeted—it was basically a tech stock dependent.
So why in the past few months has it suddenly stopped playing with the US stock market and instead stuck closely to the old-fashioned gold?
Because the big money behind it has become more astute.
Previously, the US central bank did a round of easing, buying back long-term bonds and liquidity.
The smart money in the market immediately saw through it: the drama of fiat over-issuance and purchasing power depreciation was about to replay.
At this time, big capital must hedge against fiat depreciation.Anthropic's IPO narrative is not just a numbers game but a stress test of the AI capital cycle
A $2 trillion valuation surpassing SpaceX, making it the largest tech IPO in primary market history. $65 billion annualized revenue, 7x growth, inference gross margin raised from 38% to 85%, profitable in Q2, Q3 EBIT expected to exceed $1 billion. Claude Code single-point breakthrough at $2.5 billion annualized, vertical scenario payment willingness exceeding expectations
But a $42 billion annual net loss shadows it. AWS and Google computing power bets—hundreds of millions consumed monthly, combined with a five-year cloud commitment worth hundreds of billions—are infinitely amplifying the profit black hole. Capital expenditure growth still outpaces revenue, gross margin improvement comes more from pricing power than a true steep drop in cost curve. 30x price-to-sales ratio prices in the "AI infrastructure" endgame position, not current cash flow
Macro mirror: fiat credit continues to erode, sovereign debt snowballs, AI infrastructure becomes the new "compute power national debt." BTC's non-sovereign narrative is being repriced—not just a pure risk asset but a tool against compute power capital tax. Direction unchanged: compute power equals power. The rhythm is changing: mismatch between primary valuation and secondary liquidity expectations is intensifying
The intersection of AI and Crypto is not conceptual hype but a reconstruction of "value storage" and "compute power pricing power"
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 After the U.S. stock market opened, the crypto market declined in sync, essentially reflecting a global cooling in risk appetite.
Currently, many institutional funds allocate to both U.S. stocks and crypto assets. When U.S. stocks weaken, risk control programs actively reduce holdings of high-risk assets. Since crypto has higher volatility, it is often the first to be sold off.
Two core signals:
1. Macro sentiment turns cold. The decline in U.S. stocks indicates the market is repricing interest rates and economic expectations, with rising expectations for U.S. Treasury yields, leading funds to avoid risk assets, putting pressure on BTC and ETH.
2. Internal leverage amplifies the drop. The market holds many contract positions; price dips trigger cascading liquidations, further pushing prices down. It’s common to see small pullbacks in U.S. stocks accompanied by larger declines in crypto.
Distinguish between two types of movements:
If it’s a brief linked drop and crypto quickly recovers, it’s just a short-term emotional disturbance, and the original consolidation pattern remains unchanged.
If U.S. stocks continue to weaken and crypto declines with high volume, breaking key support levels, be wary of a trend turning bearish and avoid continuing with a consolidation trading strategy.
In practice, don’t rush to bottom-fish. Volatility during U.S. trading hours is intense, with frequent stop-loss hunting spikes. Focus on the effectiveness of key support levels; adjust positions promptly when volume breaks support, and always use stop-losses.
What do you think about this linked decline—is it a short-term correction or a trend turning bearish? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$BTC In 2022, Bitcoin entered a major bear market, falling from 69,000 all the way to 15,500, a 73% drop. In 2018, it was also a bear market and the Fed's rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, with Bitcoin falling from 19,000 to 3,000, down 80%. In hindsight, people summarized that rate hikes and balance sheet reduction can bring about a bear market, and believe that once rates are raised in the future, investors will start to liquidate. However, in 2026, without rate hikes or balance sheet reduction, the bear market will still arrive, Bitcoin will be halved, altcoins will fall to the bottom, and they will be trapped again. Past experience has actually lost its effect. Will it only fail in 2026? 2014 and 2015 were also Bitcoin's worst bear markets. Back then, zero interest rates, massive liquidity injections, and two years of bear conditions. This is the unreliable surface experience based on historical summaries, also known as the 'carving the boat' experience. For example, many people think that when Bitcoin breaks its all-time high, a counterfeit season will arrive, but in 2024, Bitcoin broke through 69,000 and still has no counterfeit season. So the underlying reason remains unchanged in the long term, able to withstand historical tests, not just superficial markings. The underlying cause of a bear market is the repeatedly emphasized chip structure. Once a bull market reaches this point, no matter what happens in the future, it will inevitably start a bear market. 1. Most people share the same direction, all looking forward to a higher future high. 2. Lots of good news, no sense of risk. 3. Especially if you've been convinced by the rally, join everyone in looking forward to that higher future high (don't reject yourself out of greed—this is the most accurate signal).The most common mistake in the market right now is equating "continuous ETF inflows" directly with a "breakout confirmation." I disagree.
First, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $986.9 million last week, so spot buying has indeed returned; but BTC is still around $79,400, indicating that $80,000 is not yet a valid support.
Second, US nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, and the market is re-pricing the risk of a September rate hike. The CPI on September 11 is the real next hurdle.
Third, ETH is around $2,500, and SOL, XRP, and BNB have not formed a synchronized breakout, so market breadth is not impressive.
My plan is simple: I will re-evaluate the breakout only if BTC truly holds above $82,000; otherwise, I prefer to wait and observe support around $77,000–$78,000.
If BTC holds above $82,000 and interest rate expectations ease again, I will change my current "no chase" stance.The Hong Kong stock market suddenly surged at midday, reportedly due to some insider news from the real estate sector, but it promptly deflated at 2 o'clock.
BTC held steady on the four-hour chart, but volume is shrinking, very much like the calm before the storm.
I came across some data today showing that net inflows of stablecoins on exchanges hit a half-month high; these folks say they're panicking, but their actions tell a different story.
The A-share power sector collectively moved unexpectedly; no policy documents were seen, but speculative funds took the lead—this kind of market requires quick follow-through.
US Treasury yields have risen again, squeezing growth stock valuations tightly, and Nasdaq futures are now fluctuating between gains and losses.
ETH is following BTC, but its exchange rate is falling rather badly, indicating that capital prefers to hold the big brother.
I checked my positions and cut my leverage in half; in this chaotic situation, minimizing losses is winning.
Gold also rose, showing that risk-off sentiment hasn't dissipated, but the seasoned players in crypto are actually buying in batches.
If there’s no volume breakout above resistance near the close, today will most likely end with a grind.
The $SOL on-chain meme project suddenly came alive, with an astonishing turnover rate, but the market cap is too small for me to touch.
Actually, the biggest risk now isn’t a drop, it’s staying sideways too long, wearing down patience, then a sudden spike wipes everyone out.
Wrapping up, waiting for the night session data.4000 $BTC were stolen from the Liquid sidechain, equivalent to 320 million USD.
Many people are asking if today's BTC drop of just over 1% was caused by this negative news.
Objectively speaking, this theft occurred on the Bitcoin sidechain Liquid, not a vulnerability in the Bitcoin mainchain itself.
So it is not a nuclear bomb capable of directly crashing the entire market.
However, this news has intensified market fears about the security of crypto infrastructure, amplifying the already weak market volatility.
Today's slight decline is due to the combined effect of macro pressure and security-related negative sentiment, so it cannot be entirely blamed on this theft.
Honestly, I am also hoping for a deeper correction.
I hope BTC will continue downward, cooling off the overheated $ZEC and $SOL at high levels.
But we must stay clear-headed.
Whether a sudden piece of news can evolve into a sustained decline depends on whether subsequent selling pressure follows.
Negative news does not mean an immediate start of a one-sided crash.
At this point, rather than predicting a crash, quietly observe the market's support strength.
#BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 #ZEC升至加密货币市值第10位 This time, El Salvador may have caused the market to misjudge again.
The latest IMF review shows that since the audit in June last year, the additional BTC acquired by El Salvador did not come from the national treasury funds but from private donations.
This directly dispels the market's biggest previous concern: whether Bukele was using state finances to buy BTC at a low point, potentially even crossing the red line of the IMF aid agreement.
In fact, El Salvador has been doing one thing over the past few years:
Not abandoning BTC, but de-risking the BTC strategy.
After reaching an agreement with the IMF, Bitcoin payments changed from mandatory to voluntary, taxes continue to be collected in dollars, and the Chivo wallet has gradually reduced direct government operation.
On the surface, it looks like a compromise, but in reality, it is installing insurance for the fiscal system.
The IMF wants fiscal stability, Bukele wants a BTC strategic reserve, and both sides ultimately found a middle path:
The state no longer bets the treasury on BTC, but also does not abandon BTC.
The real significance of this for the crypto market is not how many more BTC El Salvador holds.
But that it is exploring a brand-new model:
The state can treat BTC as a strategic asset while isolating fiscal risk.
If this model ultimately works, what will truly be worth watching in the future may not be which country announces "buying BTC," but rather:
Who can keep BTC on the national balance sheet without risking the treasury. Listen to Second Brother's take
Although $ZEC has been very strong recently, I feel it will at most rise to 1600~1800, for three reasons
1. This wave of ZEC started around 800, which is also the concentrated area of short positions. After reaching 1600~1800, 1x leverage positions will be liquidated. If the whales don't sell at that time, the chips might just end up in their hands.
2. Currently, ZEC's market cap ranks 8th, around 20 billion USD. When the market cap is large, it's harder for whales to control the market. To push the price higher, a much larger buying force is needed, making it less cost-effective for whales to pump the price.
3. ZEC doesn't have a grand narrative like BTC or ETH; its intrinsic value is limited. The recent surge is mainly due to short squeeze caused by crowded shorts and chain liquidations. Short fuel accounts for a large part, and although whales hold their chips without selling, pumping without selling is meaningless. Selling requires time and enough retail investors to take over.
For this CS coin ZEC, it's better not to chase the rise or fall in the short term. Those who haven't entered should mainly observe first; it's not too late to enter after it breaks key support levels. #ZEC rises to 10th in cryptocurrency market cap #Robinhood chain revenue drives ARB up over 50% in two days #Earnings watcher: Oracle and Adobe reports coming soon $BTC $ETH Retail is still selling $BTC even while the price is going up.
Instead of chasing the rally, smaller investors are using every bounce to exit.
That usually happens when people don’t trust the move and think another dump could be coming.
The market is going up, but retail still looks scared.
#DailyOrbit $UNI $UNI rose 15% in 7 days, breaking through $7—is this the "second phase" of the DEX leader launching?
UNI closed at $7.15 today, up 15% over the past seven days, at one point reaching $7.46, marking the first time in three months that UNI has effectively held above the $7 mark. With a market cap of $4.47 billion, it remains the top DEX sector, far surpassing HYPE's $2.5 billion and dYdX's $900 million.
First, after Uniswap v4 launched, the hook library continued to expand, allowing developers to build custom logic such as dynamic rates and automatic rebalancing, making institutional market makers the main battleground; Second, UNI on-chain protocol revenue exceeded $650 million annually, the highest since 2024, truly beginning to be "self-sufficient."
Even more critical was the UNIChain mainnet vote on September 11. If approved, UNI would upgrade from ERC-20 to native L1, completely reshaping the fee structure and governance model, directly opening the narrative ceiling.
However, UNI circulation accounts for 70% of the total, with an annualized inflation rate of 2%, continuously diluting the secondary market. Technically, $7 is the concentrated trading zone for May and August; a steady reversal is needed for increased volume to confirm a reversal, otherwise it will be another false breakout.
7 is a psychological barrier; unable to hold the pullback to 6.5-6.7. The 9/11 UNIChain vote was a key turning point $BTC U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned on August 31, and in April this year, Defense Secretary Hekse suddenly removed Army Chief of Staff Randy George. In less than half a year, the top civilian and military leaders of the U.S. Army have all been replaced, coinciding with the ongoing escalation of the Iran war, making it hard not to speculate. It is not yet clear whether the two were replaced due to opposition to a ground offensive, but at least it indicates that Trump and Hekse are clearing out dissenting voices within the military.$UNI Not looking at the crypto world for a while, the changes are huge. In recent days, $ZEC has remained steady above $1,000, with privacy narratives and institutional buying making it the most resilient old coin; $UNI is climbing slowly, with the market digesting Standard Chartered's long-term target price, resulting in a volatile short-term trend; $ARB has been highly volatile, benefiting from Robinhood Chain's ecosystem benefits and once surged, but on September 16, nearly 100 million unlocked Damocles Swords hovered and showed signs of correction after overbuying, with fierce bullish and bearish tug-of-war.
In contrast, $DOGE has been sluggish in recent days due to a lack of new catalysts, and after the Musk concept faded, it was almost forgotten by capital; $HYPE continued its strong performance, with Perp DEX revenue still impressive, up over 220% year-to-date, and the market clearly favoring assets backed by real earnings. This divergence shows that the main theme in the crypto world has shifted from "storytelling" to "watching data." Token pressure release and revenue fundamentals are the key short-term strategies—don't let hype mislead the momentum. $BTC $ETH #ZEC升至加密货币市值第10位 #Robinhood链收入带动ARB两日涨超五成 #BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 This is the beginning of a bull market, I am certain and sure!
Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $79,000 and $82,000, while Ethereum hovers around $2,400 to $2,550. Prices move freely, with support on the downside and resilience on the upside. The daily MACD shows divergence and severe overbought conditions; technically, the market does not support a rise, yet they remain sideways at high levels, neither breaking down nor breaking up.
The interest rate hike expectations have surged to nearly 60%, and August's nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, three times the expected amount. These are typical bearish signals, and everyone thought prices would fall, but BTC and ETH stubbornly pulled back. What does this indicate? The market is accumulating, waiting for cheap chips to be washed out.
Institutions are voting with real money—Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $1 billion in net inflows in a single week, and Ethereum ETFs had $1.85 billion inflows in August. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has soared to +0.50, a six-year high, as investors view both as tools to hedge against currency devaluation. Meanwhile, ZEC has surpassed DOGE and HYPE, jumping to ninth in market capitalization.
This wave, I really feel, is not simple. Institutions return first, BTC starts, ETH and altcoins follow, and finally retail investors enter—this is a typical early bull market path.
But I dare not be certain, because I am long, and I fear my position might affect my judgment.
Brothers, what do you think? Could this rally be the start of a bull market?
#BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $179 million in the past 24 hours, with BlackRock IBIT still the main force with a single-day inflow of $119 million, followed by Fidelity FBTC with $59 million. Last week, total inflows totaled $990 million, indicating a short-term institutional buying rebound. However, note that after the large inflow of $730 million on September 3, flows quickly declined over the next two trading days. Overall, the net outflow pattern in 2026 has not been reversed; short-term inflows are more of a pulse rather than a continuous increment. Currently, ETFs hold about 1.25 million BTC, accounting for nearly 6% of circulating supply, serving as an important chip base. ETH spot ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $27.1 million, only about one-seventh of BTC, indicating weak institutional allocation enthusiasm. Funds are highly concentrated in BlackRock ETHA, with sluggish trading for other products. Institutions have not yet increased their holdings in Ethereum. This rebound relies more on on-exchange capital rotation for ETH, so ETFs currently cannot drive the market. The ZEC-ZCSH Grayscale ETF has surged to $468 million in AUM and holds 444,600 ZEC tokens in the short term, showing astonishing short-term expansion. But it's important to distinguish cause and effect: it's not ETF buying that drove ZEC up, but price surges that pushed up the fund's total assets. The volume of new subscription funds is limited; the core driving force behind this round of short squeeze comes from short stampede contracts, with ETFs acting more as catalysts for sentiment. Market summary: ETFs can only serve as auxiliary references. BTC has institutional support, but inflows are unstable; ETH institutional sentiment is biasedTo put it simply: while the entire crypto market is still struggling to return to its highs, with 90% of assets deeply stuck in a halving slump, the "privacy sector" has surged against the trend by 213%, with its total market cap directly hitting $33.6 billion. This is not only the best-performing sector this year but also a textbook example of a "sector-wide massive recovery." It has been 335 days since the historical peak in October 2025, and Bitcoin is still down 36% from that high, with the median drop among the top 200 assets reaching as much as 58%. But the privacy sector is an absolute outlier—not only has it fully recovered lost ground, it has even surpassed its previous peak by 213%. The past month (30 days) has been even more remarkable, with the sector overall soaring 90%, capturing the majority of market attention. ZEC's rise to fame: skyrocketing from rank 82 to 7, ZEC (Zcash) has been instrumental in the privacy sector reaching its current scale (from $7.1 billion a year ago to $33.6 billion). Its market cap ranking jumped directly from 82nd to 7th globally, surging 2,496% (nearly 25 times) this year alone, shouldering 62% of the entire sector's market cap. Even if you argue it is a "giant leading the trend," data also shows that excluding ZEC, the remaining privacy coins have still risen an average of 85% this year. This indicates that the capital inflow is not blindly speculating on a single coin but represents a comprehensive sector-wide return. This year as a whole⚠️ Be cautious with stocks/coins in September! US debt is $40T, Treasury rates rise, but the dollar weakens. Gold and Bitcoin may gain, but US stocks are pricey, with funds exiting.
Big firms like MSFT and GOOGL are borrowing heavily amid unresolved inflation. Possible rate hikes in the US and Japan in September; historically, Bitcoin drops over 20% when Japan raises rates.
I’ve cut my spot holdings in half and will hold short positions until September ends.
#ZECBreaksIntoTop10 EVERY PUMP MAKES FOMO LOUDER. 🔥
That’s exactly why I give every position a clear role:
🟠 Foundation → $BTC + $ETH
🔵 Growth → $SOL + $ZEC
🔴 Speculative → $KAITO + $BEAT
Not every asset deserves the same conviction or the same risk.
The goal isn’t to catch every pump.
It’s to stay exposed, manage risk, and let high-conviction plays develop over time.
No FOMO. No overtrading. Just patience#ZECBreaksIntoTop10 #RobinhoodChainARBRev #OracleAdobeEarnings Rallied then fell back, the profits I just made were immediately given back! My mindset got controlled by the market again!
I'm Lao Luo, here is the 1-hour $ETH chart, current price 2487. Just had a wave of upward attack but failed to hold above the 2500 mark, then turned to oscillate downward. The hourly MACD has turned green, short moving averages are starting to face pressure, fortunately Supertrend support at 2476 has not been broken yet, and the 2460 daily low is the last line of defense.
DeFi sentiment hasn't triggered any major dump news; essentially, the on-exchange funds can't push past the previous high of 2536, so the bulls are choosing to take profits.
This kind of choppy market is really hard to trade. Holding long positions, the pullback quickly eats into profits; taking profits early, but fearing a sudden bullish candle might shoot the price up, it's a dilemma. Most losses happen in this kind of indecision.Why has HYPE become so popular this time, while GMX and DYDX, once leaders in perpetual DEXs, are becoming increasingly lukewarm? Joyce Crypto Research Focus The post content is true, no factual bias. The core issue is not that HYPE is better at hype, but that the three are no longer at the same stage of development. Let's look at the most direct data first. In the past 30 days, Hyperliquid's perpetual contract trading volume has exceeded $200 billion, while GMX and dYdX have only a few billions or even less. The gap in open interest is even more dramatic: Hyperliquid has entered the tens of billions of dollars, while GMX and dYdX are only in the tens of millions of dollars. This means the market is no longer facing "which of the three perpetual DEXs to choose?" but rather that Hyperliquid has formed a clear liquidity monopoly advantage. Why is this? First, Hyperliquid is more like a "Binance on the chain" rather than traditional DeFi. GMX is essentially still a capital pool model, with traders and LPs as counterparties, and capital efficiency and liquidity expansion naturally have limitations. Hyperliquid follows a high-performance order book route. Market makers, quant, high-frequency trading, and API trading can all be accessed, and user experience is increasingly close to centralized exchanges. The scariest thing about exchange business is network effects: the more traders → more market makers→ the better the depth→ the lower slippage→ and the more attractive it isNVIDIA's per capita annual revenue has reached $7.8 million, a company record high.
Just saw a chart: from 2014 to now, per capita revenue has almost followed a parabolic rise.
The ten-year compound growth rate is about 26.5%, with a cumulative increase of over 13 times.
Simply put: selling AI shovels has directly pushed labor productivity through the roof.
I think this number is impressive, but it shouldn't be used as a reason to chase the stock higher.
Record labor productivity is an efficiency story, not a guarantee that the stock price will keep rising next week.
The US stock market is closed today; Wednesday is Apple's event, Thursday is Oracle and Adobe earnings, plus PPI/CPI releases, so volatility will suddenly increase.
This holiday window is the easiest time for sentiment to be priced in early.
Invalidation conditions: CPI significantly exceeds expectations, or major companies start cutting AI capital expenditures.
Are you holding to wait for earnings, or going to be in cash to watch Apple's event first?
$NVDA $TSM $AMD #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe即将交卷
#Robinhood链收入带动ARB两日涨超五成 Non-farm payrolls didn't kill BTC, but the $80,000 level was gained and lost again, so bulls shouldn't pop the champagne yet.
Current price is around $79,400 (CMC, Sept 7, 22:00), down 0.5% in 24 hours, but still holding a +24% gain over 30 days.
This week started strong then weakened: on Sept 3, spot ETF inflows hit $731 million in one day, the largest in a month, pushing BTC up to 82,272; the next day, non-farm payrolls came in at 162,000, nearly triple expectations, and CME's September rate hike probability surged from 35% to 66%. Over $200 million in long positions were wiped out within an hour, sending BTC back below 80,000. On Saturday, shorts suffered a reversal—out of $240 million liquidations across the network, shorts accounted for $155 million, with bulls using shorts as fuel to push BTC back to 80,000. Early this morning, the US military struck an Iranian oil tanker again, pushing WTI above $92, intensifying inflation expectations.
My judgment: BTC's correlation with gold has hit a six-year high, and with the S&P 500 it's 97%—it's essentially a liquidity barometer, not a safe-haven asset to hold onto. 79,000 is the lifeline, 80,300 is the ceiling.
Let's get through the September 11 CPI first, then talk about new highs. I've been watching the market all week, time to get some sleep. #BTC“Precisely escaped the BTC peak, but became the sufferer chasing ETH gains
Jiang Zhuoer repeatedly jumps between 'fear of missing out' and 'waiting for a crash'
$BTC precise strike, a textbook-level short-term hunt
This is his most brilliant recent operation, perfectly predicting the drop triggered by "liquidation."
On September 4th, the liquidation density below 76,000 was nearly 10% higher than above $83,000, with a stronger downward "magnetic effect." Essentially, it was a bet that long leverage would be cleared.
Profit-taking: As the price fell below 80,000 as he predicted, he bought back to close at $79,480, cleanly capturing this short-term profit.
This BTC operation was nearly perfect, but deep down he remains bearish, always feeling there will be a "major correction."
$ETH all-in, regarded as the "bull market engine"
His core position is fully invested in $ETH, with very clear logic: this round is led by ETH, not $BTC.
· Operation review: Previously, he was extremely wrong bearish, reducing half his position when ETH broke 2,525**, but was proven to have sold too early.
· Current action: Now he fully admits his mistake, restoring a full position in $ETH spot to wait for gains, even believing ETH’s rise this cycle will surpass BTC.
· Potential contradiction: Although fully invested, he is still waiting for a $BTC crash. This means if ETH rallies directly without turning back, the portion of USDT funds he prepared for bottom-fishing (about 20-30% previously) will miss out again. Glassnode's data is worth a look: As of September 6, $BTC has dropped 36% from last October's peak, with the median decline among the top 200 assets reaching 58%. However, the privacy sector is the only one still above that level, having risen 213% year-to-date and another 90% in the past 30 days, leading the top ten sectors. $ZEC is the main driver, with the sector's market cap rising to $33.6 billion.
In a round of overall deep pullbacks, the sector's independent performance is better understood as capital rotation among sectors rather than a broad risk appetite recovery. Also, this is snapshot data as of September 6; it may no longer hold at the time of publication, so it is recommended to verify the latest figures independently.
A sector rising a lot does not mean you should blindly follow; the higher the position, the greater the volatility. Don't chase too aggressively and pay attention to risk. BTC Market Analysis: Only Confirm, Do Not Speculate
BTC is currently at $80,190, firmly holding the psychological level of 80K, ETH returns to 2,515, and SOL stabilizes around 106. After the non-farm payrolls release, the market's probability of a September rate hike rose to 60%, with full attention focused on the CPI data on the evening of September 11. Fed's Waller clearly stated: a core month-over-month increase above 0.2% leans toward a rate hike; below that figure, the stance remains unchanged.
Recently, ETF single-day net inflows exceeded 730 million, hitting a near nine-month peak, seemingly indicating a capital rebound. However, on-chain data reveals the essence: this round of rebound is mainly driven by short covering, not new long entries. ETFs have still seen net outflows year-to-date, and historically, multiple large single-day inflows have led to phase tops, making chasing highs extremely risky.
Current operations firmly focus only on confirmation, not prediction.
Do not chase near the current price of 80K; 81K–82K is a strong annual line resistance, chasing highs only helps shorts to unwind.
Wait steadily for a pullback to 77K–78K with reduced volume to stabilize; try small positions with fixed stop loss at 76K.
Ultimately, the market depends on the CPI release: if data is cold, hold above 82K before following on the right side; if data is hot, patiently wait for a low-buy opportunity at 74K–76K.
Personal market view, not investment advice
#ZEC升至加密货币市值第10位 #Robinhood链收入带动ARB两日涨超五成 #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe即将交卷 $BTC $ETH $ZEC When I first entered the circle, I was focused on K-lines, thinking BTC's enemy was the US stock market and its friends were tech stocks. It wasn't until I saw this set of data that I realized its true "peer" is gold.
The 90-day correlation surged to 0.56, with an even higher 30-day window, while the correlation with Nasdaq is weakening. This indicates that capital is treating it as an asset to hedge against fiat currency depreciation, rather than a highly volatile tech stock. My previous approach of applying stock trading logic to it was misguided.
What’s more concerning is that correlation is a lagging indicator; it reflects capital migration that has already occurred. If it were truly priced as "digital gold," it should rise and fall in tandem with gold going forward, rather than having an independent market. This causal chain currently lacks a key piece of evidence: whether BTC will fall if gold corrects.
Just keep an eye on the linkage between gold prices and the US dollar index. If BTC can still strengthen when gold prices fall, it means it has detached from the safe-haven logic, and the notion of "digital gold" needs to be reconsidered.
#BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50
#Liquid被提约4000枚BTC，侧链暂停运营 #山寨永续未平仓量21个月来首次超过BTC $BTC Recently, another dark horse has emerged in the crypto world: $ARB (Arbitrum) surged over 50% in just two days, driven by the explosive growth in on-chain fee revenue of Robinhood Chain. To put it simply, the logic is simple: Robinhood Chain is an L2 chain built by brokerage Robinhood based on Arbitrum's underlying layer. The protocol stipulates that 10% of the net revenue generated by this chain will be returned to the Arbitrum DAO treasury. Recently, trading and meme hype on this chain have exploded, with fee income soaring. The market saw that L2 tenant chains could truly generate real cash flow, directly revalued $ARB, and combined with a thorough bottom grinding and leveraged funds entering the market, this violent rebound was triggered. But there's a big pitfall here: this revenue share goes into the DAO treasury and won't be directly distributed to ARB holders. Instead, it's more about speculating that more traditional financial institutions will join the chain in the future. Once on-chain hype fades, the price correction will be terrifyingly fast. Even if $ARB emerges from its own major rally, it can't escape the macro environment of the crypto world. U.S. CPI inflation data remains a sword hanging over all currencies. If CPI exceeds expectations, inflation remains stubborn, Fed rate hike expectations heat up, and US dollar and Treasury yields rise, even the most fundamentally strong coins will find it hard to remain unaffected, and the overall market will be under pressure; If CPI data cools down, inflation falls, liquidity expectations improve, and the whole market is under pressurePouring cold water on all the bears (including myself): Goldman Sachs just raised its 2028 global optical module market forecast by 115%, directly pushing it close to $150 billion. Behind this number is the AI capital expenditure money-printing machine still accelerating, not slowing down.
What does this have to do with the $BTC in your hands? A lot. The anchor for pricing risk assets is no longer just interest rate hikes or cuts, but whether this AI machine is still pumping money in. As long as it keeps pumping, the risk-on tone remains.
So I'm bearish, but this week I'm waiting out with no positions, not shorting naked and pushing prices down. What's the difference? Naked shorting is going against this money-printing machine, waiting for a catalyst means letting it burn out on its own before I make a move.
What signal do you think would truly mark the peak of this AI capital expenditure cycle?Market Insight｜$LAB 0.06 is definitely not the bottom, just a pause for observation
Don't mistake 0.06 as a bottom-fishing opportunity; it’s more like the market giving a signal to pause and observe.
LAB spot daily trading volume is only around 20 to 30 million USD, but contract open interest has already piled up to 40 million, with leverage enthusiasm far exceeding spot. The order book depth is very thin, and even slight capital movements can easily trigger two-way liquidations. Shorting is equally painful, with high funding rates continuously eating into holding costs every day.
The overall market environment is also unfriendly. The 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has reached +0.50. It hasn’t captured any safe-haven premium but is instead highly tied to macro rhythms. The Fed’s hawkish statements keep coming, with a 58.6% chance of a rate hike in September. In this liquidity tightening phase, unsupported tokens bear the brunt first. Currently, market funds would rather help ZEC secure a spot in the top ten by market cap than flow back to LAB to lift its price.
Though 0.06 looks cheap, the essence is that the market lacks buying support. Low trading volume, fading narratives, and absence of incremental capital present a triple challenge. There’s no need to rush in to catch the falling knife here; patient observation is the prudent choice.
This is a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice
#ZEC升至加密货币市值第10位 #Robinhood链收入带动ARB两日涨超五成 #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe即将交卷 $BTC $ETH $ZEC One notable signal is that the open interest in the altcoin market has already surpassed BTC.
What does this mean? $ZEC
Simply put, the market's leverage is clearly stacking on the altcoin side now. Many people don't just have no positions; they've already opened long positions in advance, just waiting for further rallies. $XRP
A similar situation occurred in December 2024, after which altcoins experienced a very fierce deleveraging.
So even though I don't think altcoins are necessarily topping out immediately, and an overall 20% rise later is not impossible, this highly crowded long position state is the most prone to sudden reverse spikes. $ENA
The real danger is often not that the market can't rise, but that when everyone is waiting for it to continue rising, a quick sharp drop comes first to clear the leverage positions.
Therefore, recently with altcoins, chase less, use less leverage; better to miss out a bit than to become the liquidity for the next round of liquidation.Market Analysis｜ZEC's Frenzied Short Squeeze, Don't Overestimate the Capital Spillover Effect
The $ZEC short squeeze rally continues, relentlessly crushing bearish sentiment. However, profit-taking pressure at high levels is rapidly accumulating. Although the short squeeze momentum can persist in the short term, the risk of a concentrated sell-off has already been planted. Once the shorts are mostly flushed out and the surge from liquidations runs dry, a sudden market reversal often catches traders off guard.
Meanwhile, $ETH is in a phase of consolidation and accumulation, repeatedly testing resistance levels with intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The price has yet to firmly hold above 2500, and the overall market has not established a clear one-sided trend. At this stage, it essentially represents a high-level chip exchange.
Many assume that after a leading coin surges, capital will naturally flow into smaller coins in the same sector, driving a catch-up rally. But there is a crucial premise here: the leading coin's rally has not peaked, and the overall market environment remains stable.
ZEC's rise is mainly driven by contract short squeezes rather than a continuous influx of spot volume, showing clear signs of market control. Once it reverses and plunges, it will not only fail to send capital outward but will likely trigger a collective flight from the sector, with small-cap coins often experiencing even more exaggerated pullbacks.
Don't assume that a leading coin's explosive rise guarantees that small-cap tokens will follow suit. The overall market trend is still unclear, and the risk of a pullback in the leader looms large. The so-called capital spillover is most likely just a brief pulse rally.
This is a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice #ZEC升至加密货币市值第10位 #Robinhood链收入带动ARB两日涨超五成 #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe即将交卷 $BTC $ETH $ZEC On this day in history, a quick time-travel news flash:
On September 7, 2016, $BTC broke through $600.
Note, it was 600, not 6000...
For young people just entering society, a 10-year span might not seem obvious;
But for those who have been through the grind, 10 years brings a strange feeling:
Looking back, it feels like time flew by, yet there have been concrete and vivid major changes in career choices, family building, and life goals.
In this quietly yet dramatically changing 10 years, if you had 10,000 yuan of spare money, then:
1. You are a gambler:
At that time BTC was like today's meme coins, you bet 10,000 and accept it might go to zero; then you forget about it, and by 2026 you would have 1.3 million yuan, a return of 13,000%;
2. You are a steady investor:
Invest in the Nasdaq, by 2026 you would have 50,000 yuan, a return of 400%;
3. You are a conservative investor:
Invest in gold, by 2026 you would have 33,000 yuan, a return of 230%.
But this 100% ideal scenario is impossible to achieve; the hardest part is to put money in but never truly commit mentally and emotionally.
However, if you just want to buy a small exposure to the future, then turn around and focus on your concrete daily life.
You won't earn as much as the big players, but you also won't be shredded into the abyss by the meat grinder; long-termism still has its small certainties.
Wishing everyone to be rich by 2036.Currently, funds are still rotating among mainstream altcoins, but the market has become noticeably more selective: payments focus on real usage, public chains focus on revenue and users, and only when ecological data keeps up can catch-up rallies easily turn into trends.
#ZEC升至加密货币市值第10位
$TRX's underlying advantage remains stablecoin payments. USDT transfers continue to contribute on-chain demand and fees; as long as stablecoin activity stays high, TRX has fundamental support; however, the ecosystem concentration is relatively high, so future growth depends on whether applications can further expand.
$LTC is more like an undervalued payment asset, with historical consensus and liquidity still intact. It easily absorbs catch-up funds when risk appetite heats up, but lacking strong ecosystem catalysts means its upward momentum depends more on trading volume.
$SUI competes on whether high performance can translate into real revenue. The active growth of DeFi, stablecoins, and applications is just the beginning; users staying and continuously paying is the foundation for further valuation upgrades.
$SOL remains a representative high-beta public chain, supported by ecosystem and trading activity; $BTC continues to act as a risk anchor. As long as BTC remains stable, funds have conditions to spread to SOL and SUI; otherwise, high-beta assets will amplify drawdowns first.
#Robinhood链收入带动ARB两日涨超五成
#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe即将交卷 These five sectors seem unrelated on the surface, but underneath they share the same thread: putting real-world assets back on-chain to invest again—time, stocks, event outcomes, attention—all turned into tradable tokens. Where does the money come from? The criteria are clear. The $USDT market cap remains unchanged over 24h, zero new issuance means no new off-chain money is coming in; meanwhile, $BTC dominance at 59.1% is declining, and the entire market is down 3.05%. This is not an incremental market, but a reallocation of existing capital—from large caps bleeding out to small caps squeezing in. The fear and greed index rose from 62 to 71 in a week, showing a divergence between sentiment and the market: the market is falling, but people are greedier. This is the final rotation of existing funds, propped up by sentiment, and lacks sustainability. The end signal can be verified: $BTC dominance stops falling and climbs back above 59.1%, or $USDT market cap continues zero growth while these sectors’ daily gains narrow to single digits. If either occurs, this cycle is over.Bro, don’t panic yet, I understand how you feel right now. When you’ve been stuck for too long, you just want "a needle" to get out 😮💨
*1. This is real, but it’s not a “Bitcoin mainnet hack”*
There really was: `Liquid Network`, a Bitcoin sidechain, had about `4,000 BTC ∼$320M` withdrawn last night.
Key points:
- *Not the BTC main chain*. It’s the Liquid sidechain’s federated wallet. The BTC mainnet is fine.
- *White hat hackers?* The attacker left a message on-chain: “We are whitehats. contact us on chain.” Usually, this means they found a vulnerability and want a bounty, and most likely there will be negotiations to return the funds.
- *Paused*: Liquid has suspended all new transactions and cross-chain bridges f270801e1033
So this is an “infrastructure issue,” not a BTC crash.
*2. Will this cause BTC to drop significantly?*
There will be short-term emotional impact. The market hears $320M and starts selling.
But looking at the structure: `4,000 BTC` is only 0.019% of the total BTC supply. Also, it’s locked in the sidechain, not directly dumped on the market.
Whether it really drops depends on: `$BTC $80K holding or not + $ETH $2.5K volume or not`
Your `PATIENCE` from yesterday still applies. Today’s drop looks more like “using bad news to hit liquidity” The US-Iran situation has cooled slightly; can the signs of turning point be further confirmed? Short-term capital pricing in crude oil prices has reached a critical point! So far, there are two promising signs of turning points in the US-Iran situation: 1. Iran confirmed that a new shipping agreement with Oman has been finalized, with only signing remaining, and Iran claims control over it. #财报观察员: Oracle and Adobe are about to hand over their documents. This sends a positive signal abroad, demonstrating Iran's willingness to negotiate and restore navigation in the strait. Of course, Iran has also made a prerequisite demand: the US is not attacking Iranian assets. Next, it depends on whether Oman confirms the news, and whether the U.S. tacitly accepts the new agreement or explicitly opposes it. Once the agreement is confirmed, navigation in the strait will inevitably be restored. As for when pre-war status will be restored, it depends on communication between the U.S. and Iran. 2. U.S. Central Command released data showing that as of September 6, the U.S. military had changed the course of 92 merchant ships, causing 3 ships to lose power and inspecting 2 vessels. This data proves that the U.S. blockade of Iran is not a detention but involves expulsion and forcibly changing flights, which is much weaker than expected. This is a good signal and indicates that the U.S. has not completely taken the matter. After a tense weekend, the US-Iran situation saw a turning point on Monday. Whether optimism can fully return depends on this week. Calculating the timeline, the pressure of Trump's midterm elections is mounting, and at this point, Trump can no longer be allowed to act "willfully." Although the US-Iran situation was tense last week and the number of ships navigating the strait decreased, Bre...$CL The impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran war on oil prices are opposite, but simply put, the current dominant logic is bullish.
We can break these two factors down:
The Russia-Ukraine war is the main bearish factor. Previously, oil prices fell because there were rumors of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. As long as the war continues, supply is tight; once a ceasefire happens, everyone thinks oil is no longer scarce, so prices naturally drop. This is a short-term bearish factor.
The US-Iran conflict is the bullish factor and is the core issue now! The Strait of Hormuz is the global artery for oil transportation. If the US and Iran clash, this route could be blocked at any time. Thirty percent of the world's oil passes through here, and if it's blocked, there will truly be an oil shortage. This risk is much greater than the impact of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
The current situation is that the bearish pressure from a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is completely overshadowed by the bullish panic from the US-Iran conflict.
As long as the tension in the Middle East remains, and the Strait of Hormuz is not open, oil prices have reason to keep rising. Our current bullish view is based on this risk premium.$CORE Many people's first reaction: Does the addition of 10 million coins mean they have already rushed into exchanges to dump? Here we need to clarify a key concept.
Increase in circulation = coins released from staking lockup to free wallets on-chain, which does not mean they have been deposited into exchanges.
Coins are only unstaked, becoming transferable on-chain and can be kept in personal wallets; they are not necessarily immediately deposited to platforms for sale.
In the past two days, staking rewards have resumed, unlocking a large amount of staked CORE, which is directly counted into circulating supply, so data platforms show a direct increase in circulation numbers.
Unlocking only means "unlocking the lock"; the real selling pressure depends on whether these coins have been transferred to exchange deposit addresses.
But risks cannot be ignored:
1. The contract still retains minting rights, so theoretically there is a possibility of additional issuance. There is no public detail on-chain, so we cannot be 100% sure that the added 10 million all come from staking unlocks.
2. These unlocked coins can be deposited into exchanges with one click at any time. Once the deposit and withdrawal channels are opened, potential selling pressure will be realized.
Currently, deposits and withdrawals are still under maintenance. Even if circulation increases, these coins cannot be deposited to exchanges to dump for now. But once the channels open, these unlocked chips will be a latent risk hanging over the market. $BTC lost another $80,000, while $ETH held around 2500. Why hasn't nearly $1.2 billion in ETF funds pushed the price up?
Currently, $BTC is near $79,300, with an intraday high of $80,494, then falling back below $80,000; $ETH is around $2,497, with an intraday high of $2,532, overall performing slightly stronger than BTC.
The capital flow is actually not bad.
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow was about $987 million, and the ETH ETF net inflow was about $215 million, totaling over $1.2 billion. More than 80% of the funds still flowed into BTC, but the price failed to break through $80,000 effectively despite several attempts.
This indicates that there is buying interest currently, but new funds are repeatedly exchanging chips with profit-taking above. ETFs are supporting the bottom, but to continue pushing prices higher, the macro environment needs to cooperate.
US August added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding market expectations. The market pricing for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 58%. Upcoming are Thursday's PPI release, Friday's CPI release, and the Fed meeting on September 15-16.
So the current market is contradictory: institutional funds are still coming in, but macro funds are hesitant to chase.
In the short term, watch if BTC can hold $79,000 and if ETH can continue to hold around $2,470. If ETFs continue to flow in but prices repeatedly fall, beware that selling pressure above has not yet been digested.#BTC and gold 90-day correlation rises to +0.50
The 90-day rolling correlation coefficient has reached +0.50, a high level since 2020. Simply put, the probability of $BTC and gold moving in sync has clearly increased, the narrative of digital gold is being backed by capital, while its correlation with Nasdaq tech stocks is noticeably weakening.
This is driven by geopolitical and US debt uncertainties, with institutions treating both as hard assets to hedge against fiat currency depreciation. But it’s important to distinguish that BTC’s volatility is much greater than gold’s; when both rise, BTC surges sharply, but when it pulls back, the sell-off is also more intense.
This correlation is not permanently fixed; changes in US Treasury yields and the dollar can easily cause them to diverge again. Going forward, gold’s trend can serve as a macro reference, but you shouldn’t directly copy gold’s market moves to trade altcoins. $ETH and smaller coins still carry their own selling pressure risks.
This is just a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. Around this time last year, $ZEC was still stuck at $50, but it has multiplied more than twentyfold in a year. This week, it even pushed Dogecoin out of the top ten by market cap. The trigger was just one thing: Grayscale converted the Zcash Trust into the ZCSH spot ETF listed on the US stock market, the first-ever privacy coin spot ETF in the US, and money has been pouring in. Then the shorts got squeezed—94% of the $34.5 million position was short, and the more it rose, the more the shorts were forced to cover. Calling it pure speculation isn’t fair either; shielded transactions account for nearly 60% of network activity, so there really is on-chain supply. But the rise has been so rapid that the overbought indicators are maxed out, and with the EU setting a ban on privacy coins by 2027, anyone chasing this ride better buckle up.
#ZEC升至加密货币市值第10位 $BTC $ZEC I just checked the popular coins on the plaza, as well as the coins most discussed in chat rooms and groups, and that is zec coin. Most are shorting and currently at a floating loss.
My advice is not to try shorting this type of coin.
The reasons are as follows:
1. The more you short these types of coins, the more aggressively they will pump. Refer to previous cases like pippin, trb, lab, etc. Shorting will not make you money because you can't hold on.
2. ZEC is a privacy coin, with strong whales like Grayscale funds, mining farm owners, and big players in the black and gray markets holding a large amount of spot and highly controlling the market. The higher the pump, the more valuable the coins in their hands become. As long as you keep shorting, the big holders of spot coins will be happier.
3. Currently, there are not many shorts left to be liquidated above. So why doesn't the coin price drop? Because there is no selling pressure from spot holders, no one is selling. Plus, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various altcoins all taking off, it creates a bullish atmosphere, making the big holders even less likely to sell.
4. All the pumps are for unloading. The higher the pump, the more profit they make. But if you short, there is a forced liquidation price. The hype is high, and the price won't drop; it will only attract more people to short, causing shorts to accumulate and triggering a chain of liquidations with fireworks.The direction of capital is quietly shifting, shifting focus from how high Bitcoin can rise to which assets can find a more independent rhythm. As long as the overall market does not break below key support zones, strong stocks will have room to perform, which is the most resilient underlying trend at present. A noteworthy detail is that BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has risen to +0.50, indicating that risk aversion logic and risk appetite are intertwining, and market sentiment is more complex than it appears. $HYPE's value pivot is not narrative but Hyperliquid's real fee income and repo mechanism, whose "trading volume—fee—buyback" closed loop provides a relatively solid foundation for valuation; As long as the share of perpetual contracts is not eroded, the fundamentals remain solid. The real risk lies in unlocking at high levels and increasingly fierce competition. $ETH is still in a recovery phase, with stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA activities forming its underlying demand. If the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to strengthen, it usually means funds are spilling out from Bitcoin to more resilient assets, and the overall altcoin space will truly open up. $TRUMP acts more like an amplifier of sentiment and events, with volatility far exceeding its fundamentals; $BTC Remains steady around $80,000, acting as the stabilizing force for overall market risk appetite. $NEAR's imagination focuses on AI narratives and on-chain activity, while $ASTER tests the trading ecosystem's ability to capture actual token value. The upcoming CPI data is a critical watershed; moderate data can give risk assets breathing room onceAccount Position Divergence Radar
The side with more people does not necessarily have heavier positions; this chart specifically separates quantity and weight.
$CP overall accounts, top accounts, and top positions are not aligned in the same direction, currently resembling a divergence market. When the price falls, OI increases simultaneously; this phase is not simply deleveraging, and position attribution still requires transaction verification. Each ratio moves independently; short-term is more suitable for waiting for resonance, not for chasing direction based on a single ratio.
$DOGE account direction is biased long, top position direction is biased short; the side with more people is temporarily not the side with heavier top positions. Price drops and positions reduce, risk exposure is contracting, it cannot be directly written as new shorts. Later, stop counting accounts and directly monitor whether the top position weight is repairing towards the long side.
$SUI account quantity and top position weight are still not aligned, keep the divergence label for now, the next level is left to price and position. The rise did not bring position expansion, short-term repair is valid, insufficient evidence for new trend positions. Account structure is still tugging; price and OI will determine which side truly gains the advantage.🟢$BTC — 1H ANALYSIS
Price: ~$79.5K
1H Bias: 🟡 Neutral → Bullish
BTC is trading near $79.5K, with the current hourly technical reading Neutral. Price is sitting just above the important $79K support, while $80.5K–$82.8K remains the resistance zone.
🟢 Resistance
- $80.5K
- $82.3K
- $82.8K
🔴 Support
- $79.0K
- $77.5K
- $75.7K
🚀 BULLISH: 1H close above $80.5K → $82.3K → $82.8K.
⚠️ BEARISH: 1H close below $79K → $77.5K → $75.7K.
🎯 KEY LEVEL: $79K
1H PLAN: Holding $79K keeps the recov#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe即将交卷
After the market close on September 10 Eastern Time, the two software giants Oracle ORCL and Adobe ADBE simultaneously released their earnings reports. Both are core validation targets of the AI narrative, but market divergence has become very wide.
1. Oracle ORCL: Can AI computing power orders be fulfilled?
Market consensus expectation: EPS $1.74, total revenue $19.13 billion, year-over-year +28%.
Key highlights
1. OCI cloud infrastructure growth
This is the decisive factor for the stock price. Last quarter, OCI cloud infrastructure surged 93% year-over-year, driven by large AI computing power orders, but heavy asset investment and huge capital expenditures continue to pressure gross margins. The market wants to see whether AI cloud growth can maintain a high level or if there will be a growth inflection.
2. RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations)
Holding hundreds of billions in long-term contracts is Oracle's biggest confidence, but orders ≠ recognized revenue. The focus is on new AI major clients and the pace of order conversion, which directly determines whether the $90 billion revenue target for fiscal year 2027 can be achieved.
3. Profitability and free cash flow
The biggest controversy: AI capacity expansion burns cash, and free cash flow has weakened for multiple consecutive quarters. If capital expenditures remain high this quarter and cash flow falls short of expectations, even if revenue meets targets, valuation is likely to be cut after hours.
4. Traditional software business
Legacy database license revenue continues to weaken, relying entirely on cloud computing power to support overall growth. Continued decline in traditional business will suppress valuation ceilings. Many people don't understand: release from prison and pardon are two different things.
In November 2023, Zhao Changpeng voluntarily flew to the United States to plead guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act — Binance provided services to U.S. users early on but was not registered in the U.S. There was no fraud, no money laundering, no user losses. He is the first in U.S. history to be imprisoned for this violation, sentenced to four months. Binance also paid a $4.3 billion fine, one of the largest criminal settlements in U.S. corporate history.
In September 2024, he completed his sentence and was released, but the matter is not over. Serving the sentence only means "the prison time is done," but the conviction record stays for life: travel restrictions, business qualification restrictions, many countries permanently deny visas. A pardon is what erases the identity of "criminal" itself.
Why did Trump sign it? Just look at the timeline: in his first week in office, he first pardoned Ross Ulbricht of Silk Road, who was sentenced to double life imprisonment; ten months later, he pardoned CZ. One is a dark web icon, the other is the founder of the world's largest exchange and leader of 300 million users — this is not a favor, it is an industry policy signal: crypto is now an industry the U.S. wants to keep and incorporate. The baton that was used to hit you before is now a chair being handed over.
The takeaway for ordinary people: the wind has changed. CZ was arrested in 2022 because the industry was seen as a threat; CZ was pardoned in 2025 because the industry is a vote bank, a tax source, and a financial battleground competing with Hong Kong and Singapore. The coins in your hands are backed by more and more people.On September 6, data disclosed by The Kobeissi Letter showed that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to +0.50, approaching the historical high during the 2020 pandemic and more than doubling since the beginning of this year. After the bear market recovery in 2022, this correlation peaked at only +0.30. During the same period, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 index dropped to about +0.30, a nearly one-year low. What does it mean for a correlation to break 0.5? Statistically, a correlation coefficient of +0.5 is considered moderate positive correlation. This means that in the past three months, more than half of them have been moving in the same direction. Considering the huge differences between Bitcoin and gold in market capitalization, investor structure, and trading mechanisms, this number is already very high. André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, pointed out: "In truly significant scenarios, Bitcoin can act as 'digital gold.' Now, this factor may begin to impact the market." The core driver behind this surge in correlation is the U.S. Treasury's long-term Treasury repurchase operations. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double the size of long-term Treasury repurchases from at least $2 billion each to $4 billion. In the first week after the buyback announcement, Bitcoin rose 22.4%, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2024; gold rose about 5%, while U.S. stocks recorded declines. This policy signal is very clear—the Treasury is backing it with real money$BTC This week, Bitcoin news is really a battle between bulls and bears, let me break it down for you.
On the bullish side, the US spot $BTC ETF saw a net inflow of 987 million last week, marking three consecutive weeks of inflows, with total net assets surpassing 100 billion, accounting for 6.32% of BTC's market cap.
The folks at Strategy are even more aggressive; the CEO said they will keep buying even if it hits new highs, currently holding over 840,000 coins. Regulation is also loosening, with the "Cryptocurrency Transparency Act" possibly passing this month, and Trump mentioned the country is considering buying BTC.
BTC is increasingly like digital gold, with correlation to $XAU reaching a near six-year high, miner holdings and hash rate are rising, and on-chain long-term indicators look good.
But there are also many bearish factors. Liquid Network had a major incident, about 4,000 BTC (320 million USD) were taken, sidechains are all down, and the community is questioning their "white hat" claims.
The G7 warned that quantum computing could threaten crypto in the future; reportedly, 6.9 million BTC are exposed in public key addresses. Short-term demand is a bit weak, Coinbase premium turned negative, retail investors are selling, plus US employment and oil prices are supporting rate hike expectations, the market has some bearish sentiment.
In the mid-term view, institutions are building base positions, but security and macro disturbances remain. Don't chase too aggressively, hold your positions well, and just ride out the volatility. #BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 $BTC Many friends ask about the overall future direction of gold; just distinguish between short, medium, and long-term cycles.
Short-term: Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the market delayed rate cut expectations, U.S. Treasury real yields rose, continuously suppressing gold prices.
This current rise is only a technical correction after a big drop, not a restart of a bullish trend. The high interest rate environment has not fundamentally changed, rebound space is limited, and the market will continue to oscillate and consolidate. Focus on inflation, Federal Reserve officials' speeches, and data will directly drive significant market fluctuations.
Medium-term: The real market turning point depends on the Federal Reserve's policy shift.
Only when employment and inflation truly cool down and the market starts pricing in rate cuts will gold open up medium-term upside potential. Before that, it will mostly be oscillating and bottoming out repeatedly, making a direct one-sided surge unlikely.
Long-term: The underlying support logic still exists.
Central banks worldwide continue to increase gold reserves to hedge against dollar risk, combined with geopolitical and global debt issues, gold's safe-haven allocation value remains, limiting the space for deep gold price declines.
Summary: The short-term rebound is a correction, mainly oscillating repeatedly; medium-term awaits rate cut signals; long-term supported by central bank gold purchases.
Do not judge a major reversal just because of a rebound.
⚠ Personal logic sharing only, not investment advice
$XAU