Orbit Post Sitemap
ETF FLOWS ARE FADING — BUT $BTC & $ETH HAVEN’T BROKEN
September 22 data showed positive spot ETF flows:
BTC +$104.54M | Cumulative $56.26B
ETH +$37.70M | Cumulative $13.56B
Yet both remain near recent highs:
$BTC $86.49K vs $87.40K high
$ETH $2.76K vs $2.81K high
The interesting part isn’t that ETFs are still buying.
So where is the buying pressure coming from?
That’s the liquidity signal worth watching next.
@OKX 预言家 #BTC87KCryptoCap3T #DailyOrbit @OKX中文 $BTC is sitting near the highs after a sharp run-up, and this is exactly where I prefer to slow down rather than chase. Think of the market like a poker table: you don't need to play every hand. When the odds are unclear, folding is still a decision. Right now, BTC is consolidating after its parabolic move. Bulls chasing here risk buying into resistance, while bears opening aggressive shorts can easily become liquidity for another squeeze. Meanwhile, the market is watching several key catalysts:$BTC in this rally, market focus has shifted from short-term sentiment to institutional capital flows. According to the latest disclosures, Strategy last week again purchased 950 BTC, with a total investment of about $75.7 million, an average cost of about $79,670, all completed in cash without financing through ATM issuance. The company currently holds a total of 846,000 BTC, accounting for about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply. Meanwhile, Strive also continues to expand its BTC reserves, increasing holdings by 1,355 BTC last week at an average price of about $79,475, raising its position to 26,355 BTC. On the ETH side, BitMine has also recently continued to increase reserves, once adding 27,180 ETH in a single week, with holdings close to 5.96 million tokens; institutional capital allocation to mainstream assets is still ongoing. The market price side has also seen significant changes: 📈 BTC once surged to $87,381, retaking the stage high; 🌐 the total cryptocurrency market cap has returned above $3 trillion; 💰 institutional accumulation, spot ETF capital inflows, and short covering have jointly driven this rally. But it should be noted here: continuous institutional buying is a positive signal on the demand side, but it does not necessarily mean the price will rise unilaterally. What is truly worth observing in the short term is whether $85,000 can be converted into effective support, and whether a breakout near $87,000 can continue with volume expansion. If BTC can hold the key area, the marketA whale's losing short is usually a footnote. This one is a liquidity map. Garrett Jin, an internal BTC OG representative, closed all 38,000 $ZEC short contracts inside 90 minutes for a $35 million hit, with cumulative losses on the account exceeding $12 million. The forced buyback alone lifted $ZEC from 1490 to 1530. He had been building that position since June, held it nearly three months, and capitulated near 1490. Then the on-chain check: the same wallet still holds 202,000 physical $ZEC, wDay 24, a single-day loss of ¥8,175.30. The cumulative profit and loss fell back to -¥8,175.30. $BTC $ETH
The market on September 22 was an epic short squeeze frenzy.
Bitcoin surged from around $76,000, breaking through the $86,000 mark, reaching an intraday high of $87,234, a new eight-month high. Ethereum rose in sync, breaking through $2,800 for the first time since late January this year. The total market capitalization of the crypto market climbed back above $3 trillion, increasing by about $740 billion since the end of August.
The liquidation data is staggering. In the past 24 hours, over $1 billion was liquidated across the network, with short liquidations reaching as high as $840 million, accounting for more than 80%. Bitcoin short liquidations were $536 million, Ethereum short liquidations were $145 million, and a total of 135,394 people worldwide were forcibly liquidated.
Why did it rise so crazily? Three forces resonated.
First, the CFTC rapidly advanced the regulatory framework. Just two days after the Senate rejected the CLARITY Act, on September 17, the CFTC submitted two crypto asset market rules to the White House, allowing unregistered exchanges to offer leveraged trading under CFTC supervision without waiting for new legislation. The regulatory vacuum may not be as long as the market fears.
Second, ETF funds poured in wildly. On September 21, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $1 billion in a single day, the largest single-day inflow since October 2025. BlackRock's IBIT remains the main force.
Third, Ethereum whales collectively increased their positions. An early ICO address from 2015 bought back 8,492 ETH near $2,794, investing about $23.72 million. Another whale has accumulated 39,501 ETH since July at an average price of only $1,974, with unrealized gains exceeding $30 million.
And I lost ¥8,175 on this day.
The reason is simple—I chased longs after Bitcoin broke through $84,000, but then Bitcoin encountered strong resistance between $86,000 and $87,000, pulling back to around $85,000. My long position was swept out during the pullback. The loss of ¥8,175 was the price paid for chasing the high.
It’s been twenty-four days. From -¥8,487 to +¥43,281, from four consecutive days of huge losses to recovering yesterday, then losing again today. This ¥8,175 loss taught me one thing: in the frenzy where shorts are being bloodied, don’t rush to go long; when the market is at its craziest, losing less is winning.The top-rated coin, I put it on the "Do Not Trade" list.
I'm taking the temperature of the crypto market. Today's temperature: spring.
I scanned through 200 contracts, and the system is willing to touch only 13.
That coin with a score of 81 isn't structurally bad; it's just that the recent trend level is too far from the current price, so the odds don't work out.
High scores and profitability are two different things.
I don't give trade calls; I only say which positions shouldn't be touched.Is the capital coming back?
The most noteworthy thing in the market today is not a sudden surge in some altcoin, but the changing structure of capital.
BTC recently climbed back near $85,000, even breaking through $87,000 at one point; more importantly, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $999 million on Monday, marking the highest single-day inflow in nearly 11 months. The ETH spot ETF also recorded a net inflow of about $270 million during the same period.
What does this mean?
First, institutional funds are returning to risk assets.
Second, BTC's rise is beginning to be driven by both ETF inflows and short covering.
Third, ETH is starting to see follow-on capital, and market attention may gradually spread from BTC to mainstream altcoins.
But the biggest mistake here is to declare a "full bull market" just because BTC is rising.
What is more worth observing now:
👉 Whether ETF net inflows can continue
👉 Whether BTC can hold above $85,000
👉 Whether ETH can continue to break through key resistance
👉 Whether altcoin trading volume can truly expand
👉 Whether capital will continue to spread from BTC to high Beta sectors
My understanding: it looks more like "risk appetite reopening" rather than a confirmed full-blown frenzy stage.
If BTC remains strong, ETH follows, and altcoin volume expands simultaneously, then what the market can truly look forward to may just be beginning.📈SNDK rises nearly 7% approaching 1900, Rosenblatt initiates coverage with a target price of 2400
📊 Market Analysis:
SanDisk closed up 6.82% on Tuesday at $1887, marking the highest close since July. The key catalyst is Rosenblatt's first coverage, assigning a "Buy" rating and a $2400 target price, believing AI is re-pricing NAND from a "commodity" to a "key component of AI infrastructure."
📈 Trading Insights:
Analyst Kevin Cassidy points out that SanDisk has signed multi-year floor price agreements with its 8 largest NAND customers, covering about 65% of production for fiscal year 2028, with signed agreements guaranteeing minimum revenue of at least $93.9 billion. Bank of America channel research also confirms that the average NAND price rose over 15% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, and cloud providers have already accepted further price increases for Q1 next year.
📈 Key Levels:
🟢 Support: 1791-1823, short-term defense line
🔴 Resistance: 1905-1920, breakout target 2000-2100
⚠️ Risk level: 1750, a break below deepens the pullback
🧠 Logic:
NAND contract prices are clearly rising, and floor price agreements lock in downside protection during the cycle. However, after a more than 13% rise in one week, the RSI has entered overbought territory, reducing the cost-effectiveness of chasing higher prices. The storage supercycle is not over, but timing entry is more important than direction.
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注
#AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 ETH Morning Analysis
Waiting for structure, a wild bull market is about to begin!
ETH this morning still maintains the sideways range of 2720-2750 from last night, with no new clear structure emerging throughout the day, so we remain on the sidelines, waiting for structure confirmation before making any moves.
Reviewing my own trades, I have frequently missed selling opportunities recently. The root cause is a lack of firm conviction in my positions. After being hit by the market last week, I have been hesitant this week. My discipline to myself: try to avoid opening positions during upcoming data release windows to reduce speculation based on news-driven market moves.
Currently, most market participants are divided into two camps: some are waiting for an upward breakout, while others are waiting for a deep pullback. The market currently has the feel of sideways movement substituting for a decline, with bulls and bears temporarily deadlocked.
It is important to pay close attention to the large options expiry this Friday, which will bring significant disturbance to the market. The key options pain point below is at 2400. Whether the market can pull back to this level will give us another chance to get back in. Let's wait and see.On September 22, Bitcoin surged intraday to $87,363.
Two weeks ago, this figure was still hovering around $76,000.
But has the money in your account kept up?
First, let's look at a chilling data point.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $612 million.
Among them, short positions liquidated $535 million, while long positions only $77 million.
The ratio is — 7 to 1.
This is not retail investors buying. This is a group of short sellers being forced by the market to close their positions with real money.
The higher the price rises, the more they have to buy. The more they buy, the higher the price goes.
This is a short squeeze.
When Bitcoin broke through the 200-day moving average at $80,000 to $81,000, that level held the densest short positions from the past few months. The 200-day moving average was effectively broken for the first time in 300 days.
Shorts held on for months, only to be met with a knife instead of a drop.
But don't rush to celebrate.
Look at the long-short ratio data.
On Binance, by number of accounts, the long-short ratio is 0.9026. On OKX, it's 0.93.
There are still more short accounts than long accounts.
What does this mean? Most retail investors are still shorting.
They haven't given up. They're just holding on, adding positions, waiting for a pullback.
If the price continues to rise — $87,000, $88,000, $90,000 — this group will be forced to surrender a second wave of chips. Deribit data shows that near the $90,000 to $100,000 strike prices, open interest in options totals about $7.7 billion.
That’s not a resistance level. That’s the entrance to the short sellers' graveyard.
One signal many overlook.
The MVRV ratio, an on-chain valuation metric, has risen to 1.62.
It crossed above the 365-day moving average.
This crossover last appeared in early 2019, and before that in early 2023.
What happened after those two times, I don’t need to say.
But note — the current MVRV is 1.62. At historical bull market tops, this number was above 3.7.
Far from overheating. Far from a crash. This is the early stage of valuation repair.
CryptoQuant directly gave a target: if MVRV can hold above 1.62, Bitcoin could reach $126,200.
So what stage are we really at now?
A short squeeze can drive a pulse-like surge. But a trending market requires spot buying to take over.
What is spot buying doing currently? ETFs have continuous inflows. On September 18 alone, net inflows were $433 million, with Fidelity taking $310 million.
But year-to-date, Bitcoin ETFs still have a cumulative net outflow of about -$1 billion.
Institutions are picking up chips, but they’re picking up cheap chips. They won’t chase at the top.
Key levels to watch closely.
$80,000 to $82,000 — this was a previous resistance zone, now turned support. Hold it, and the breakout is valid. Fail to hold, and this is just a brief short squeeze.
$87,000 to $90,000 — the next substantial test. Deribit’s options data piles $7.7 billion here; shorts are not dead yet.
Finally, a harsh truth.
Bitcoin rose 13% from $76,877 to $87,363 this round.
How much did your position increase?
If your coins are still there, congratulations. If you sold at $76,000 and are now hesitating whether to chase —
you didn’t sell coins, you sold your market judgment. BTC站上87000，WIF、PEPE、DOGE怎么做？我把交易计划直接摊开！ 这轮Meme已经不是单纯跟涨，而是明显进入资金高Beta扩散阶段。PEPE、WIF、DOGE近期都出现突破，WIF和PEPE的突破伴随明显放量，说明短线资金确实在进场。
但现在最大的问题不是“还能不能涨”，而是追进去之后，什么位置证明自己判断错了？
我个人会这样做：
① WIF：突破0.232美元后，不建议直接追涨。
0.232附近是这轮突破的核心颈线，优先等回踩确认。如果回踩0.232—0.24区间后重新放量向上，可以考虑分批进场；第一目标看0.28—0.30美元，进一步强势再看0.33附近。反过来，如果放量跌回0.232下方，并且反抽站不回去，就先撤。WIF这轮突破的是持续9个月的结构，所以关键就是看突破位能不能变成支撑。
② PEPE：弹性最大，但也是我最不建议追高的一个。
目前0.00000456附近是重要突破区域，现价已经明显拉开距离，所以更适合等回踩，而不是看到大阳线再冲。回踩0.0000045—0.0000047附近能够缩量企稳，可以考虑分批；第一目标看0.0000053，突破后再看0.000The Fed just raised interest rates to 3.75%–4.00%, yet the 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 4.93%.
According to traditional liquidity logic, this is not the most comfortable environment for risk assets.
But on September 21, the opposite capital signal appeared: BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $999 million, the highest in nearly 11 months; ETH inflows were $270 million, SOL inflows another $26.1 million, totaling about $1.295 billion across the three.
Therefore, this round of gains cannot simply be described as "global liquidity easing again."
A more accurate fact is: macro funding costs remain high, but there is a clear institutional capital return within crypto assets.
BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB have entered a 90-day high zone, while XRP still lags behind, indicating that capital dispersion is not entirely even.
The next real test is whether ETFs can sustain continuous net inflows. If capital continues to flow while Treasury yields remain high, the independent capital logic of crypto assets will be further strengthened; if ETFs cool down quickly, then nearly $1.3 billion in a single day is still insufficient to confirm a trend.On September 23, according to TheDefiant, a16z and the DeFi Education Fund submitted a joint proposal to SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, suggesting the establishment of a “safe harbor” mechanism for qualified decentralized trading protocols and their front ends.
The proposal states that DEXs meeting conditions such as non-custodial, automated, permissionless, and trust-neutral can by default not be classified as "exchanges" under the Securities Exchange Act. Meanwhile, the DEX front end is mainly responsible for the interface, maintenance, security updates, and asset screening based on open standards.
Additionally, a16z also recommends that the SEC refer to the 1998 Reg ATS framework to establish a dedicated registration system for centralized crypto trading platforms, allowing platforms to trade crypto securities, non-security assets, and mixed trading pairs under a regulatory framework.
This key point can be simply understood as: DEXs strive for regulatory boundaries, while CEXs seek compliance entry.
If these ideas are adopted by regulators in the future, the “decentralized” attribute of DEXs may receive a clearer regulatory definition, and CEXs are expected to gain a clearer path for compliant operations.
For the crypto market, a further clarified regulatory framework could become an important variable for institutional funds and traditional finance to further enter the crypto market. $BTC $ETH $ZEC In terms of K-line, $ETH is stronger than BTC and SOL, and it is the only one among the three to stand above the VWAP.
From August 11 to September 10, ETH rose 33%, BTC rose 23%. The ETF side is even more direct: last week ETH had a net inflow of 196.9 million, while BTC had a net outflow of 462.7 million, a difference of over 600 million between inflow and outflow.
The total size of ETH's ETF is only one-sixth of BTC's ETF, 16.7 billion versus 102.5 billion. Using one-sixth of the market cap to absorb more net inflow than the other side.
Looking at the whole year makes it clearer.
Since 2026, ETH ETF net inflow is 863 million, BTC ETF net outflow is 1 billion.BTC: $86,195, down 0.35% in 24 hours.
ZEC: $1,633, surged 183% in one month, skyrocketing 3000% in one year.
Same market, same time.
One is like an old dog lying still, the other like a maniac on adrenaline.
The crypto market is playing out a "Song of Ice and Fire."
First, feel this contrast.
BTC is motionless around 86,000. Since early September, it has been repeatedly fluctuating between 83,000 and 86,000. What is this range? The cost line for long-term holders, the ETF breakeven point, and a dense liquidation level—all three forces stacked together, forming a thick wall.
It tried to break through three times, and was pushed back three times.
But no one panics. ETFs are flowing in, institutions are accumulating chips, BTC is like a building, so stable it’s boring.
On the other hand, ZEC is a completely different world.
In mid to late August, ZEC was hovering around $500. Then it broke through 680. Then 800. Then 1,000. Then 1,200.
On September 23, $1,633. A new recent high.
Something worth $500 a month ago is now over $1,600. If you invested $10,000 in August, you now have $32,000.
This isn’t growth. This is a launch.
Why can ZEC go crazy like this? Three engines ignited simultaneously.
Engine one: Ironwood upgrade restores trust.
In May this year, Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool was exposed to a major forgery vulnerability. How big was this? Big enough to cast doubt on the entire network’s supply credibility—because old Orchard transactions were shielded, outsiders couldn’t independently verify if ZEC had ever been forged.
On July 28, Ironwood (NU6.3) mainnet activated. The old Orchard pool was sealed off, a new shielded pool enabled, and anyone running a node can independently verify ZEC’s supply cap.
In other words: before, if you said how much money you had, I couldn’t check; now I can check anytime. Trust rebuilt, story restarted.
Engine two: Grayscale ETF opens the gate.
On August 25, Grayscale Zcash Trust officially converted to a spot ETF, ticker ZCSH, listed on NYSE Arca.
Before, buying ZEC required opening an exchange account, managing wallets, worrying about custody. Now? Open your broker app, enter the code, buy.
The threshold changed from "circumventing restrictions" to "just a click."
In less than a month after listing, cumulative net inflows exceeded $233 million, assets grew from $260 million to nearly $890 million.
Grayscale wasn’t satisfied—on September 18, it announced a 1-for-3 share split for ZCSH, effective September 30.
Stock price split, more retail investors can afford it. More buyers, more money flows in.
Engine three: Shorts are being crushed.
ZEC futures open interest soared to $3.55 billion. The futures-to-spot ratio once reached 9:1.
What does this mean? Derivatives trading volume is nine times the spot volume. Price is no longer determined by spot but by leverage.
Price rises, shorts forced to cover. Covering means buying back ZEC. Buying back pushes price higher. Higher price causes more shorts to blow up.
A self-reinforcing spiral that once started can’t stop.
Real case: a whale held a ZEC short for half a month, finally forced to cover at $1,548, losing $10.68 million. Previously had a 79% win rate and $9.11 million cumulative profit since June—this trade wiped out all gains and principal.
An even worse case: Garrett Jin, 3x leveraged short on ZEC, floating loss once exceeded $35 million, finally closed all positions admitting defeat, losing $36.13 million.
In this market, those who go against the trend end up as fuel.
But, I have to pour cold water.
ZEC is still stuck between $1,600 and $1,700, with massive short leverage piled up. The short squeeze powder keg hasn’t burned out yet.
But parabolic rallies never end gently.
Derivatives volume is over nine times spot, price discovery is dominated by leveraged traders. Daily RSI near overbought, funding rates remain positive, short-term profit-taking pressure is building.
More painfully: a mining pool founder directly said—the actual usage of shielded transactions doesn’t match the price increase. What does this mean? Few people really use privacy features; valuation relies on narrative and leverage.
ZEC’s surge isn’t because the whole world suddenly needs private transfers.
It’s because of chip structure—massive shorts trapped, price rises force them to buy back, buybacks push price higher.
This isn’t fundamental-driven; it’s position-driven.
Position-driven rallies feel great going up but hurt just as much going down.
BTC steady, ZEC wild—this isn’t a contradiction, it’s normal.
Large caps determine direction, small caps determine volatility.
BTC lingering at 86,000 is digesting profits and waiting for macro signals. It doesn’t need a surge; it needs stability.
ZEC surging at 1,600 is due to unbalanced chip structure and shorts with nowhere to escape. It doesn’t need fundamentals; it needs someone to keep buying.
But you must understand one thing—
A short squeeze-driven surge falls at the same speed.
You can chase, but know what you’re chasing. Are you chasing a long-term narrative of a “privacy version of Bitcoin,” or a leverage chain that can break anytime?
These two things are completely different.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 The chips available to the shorts are getting fewer and fewer, and the window to validate their arguments is getting shorter. Meanwhile, the price of ZEC has forcibly pushed the only risk threshold further away.
But there is one thing you must see clearly.
ZEC is now around $1500. That voice in your head comes again: "It rose 25 times in a year, can I still chase it?"
First, look at a set of numbers.
Derivatives trading volume is more than 9 times that of spot. Price discovery is dominated by leveraged traders. The daily RSI is close to the overbought zone, and the funding rate remains positive.
A mining pool founder bluntly said: "The actual usage of shielded transactions does not match the price increase. The valuation lacks fundamental support."
More critically, the European Union. The EU has clearly planned to ban privacy coins, with ZEC and XMR both in range. The MiCA regulation combined with multiple exchanges delisting is systematically narrowing the compliance channels for privacy coins.
My personal view is: these days I have frequently seen ZEC's surge on multiple platforms like Douyin, causing short positions to liquidate. Market sentiment is like this—chasing gains and cutting losses. When prices surge, it brings huge risks but also huge traffic, with many adding short positions, which is more likely to force the coin's value to rise further 📈. $ZEC #ETH
If you don't chase now, wait for a pullback to $2,560 before going long; the strategy is sound.
But the problem is, if the price doesn't pull back and goes straight up, you'll completely miss out.
$2,560 is the ideal level, not a guaranteed one.#BTC surged to $87,000 before retreating to around $86,000, with the total crypto market capitalization climbing back near $3 trillion.
This rally is not solely driven by altcoin speculation; ETF fund inflows, concentrated short covering, and improved macro conditions have jointly propelled the market. The US spot BTC ETF saw nearly $1 billion in net inflows in a single day, marking three consecutive days of net inflows.
More notably, Strategy repurchased 950 BTC, spending about $75.7 million, bringing its holdings to 846,000 BTC.
BTC is now consolidating near $86,000. The focus is not on chasing the rally but on observing whether ETF inflows can continue, if contract leverage is overheating, whether ETH/SOL can keep rising, and if US Treasury yields and oil prices show inverse movements.
Short-term key points: Can $85,000 hold steady, and after breaking $87,000, can it be further confirmed.#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货
CME is going to launch $BCH and $UNI futures. I was stunned when I opened the software; the market really is back.
Damn, this morning when I opened the software, the screen was full of green, making my adrenaline surge.
CME dropped a bombshell last night, announcing plans to launch BCH and UNI futures on October 19. As soon as the news came out, the market exploded.
BCH is the craziest. It surged from 261 to 349 within 24 hours, with gains exceeding 31% at one point, now retreating to around 339. For such a large-cap coin to have such a big bullish candle, it clearly isn’t retail investors buying, but big money scrambling to accumulate. UNI is also incredible, shooting straight up to 10.43, a 13% surge in one day, nearly 1.5x in 30 days, jumping from just over 6 to above 10.
Looking at this market, I really have only one thought: if I just buy something and hold, can I get rich?
Honestly, the sentiment is definitely heating up, everything is rising, and I’m even a bit itchy to trade. But thinking calmly, the more it’s like this, the more you shouldn’t get carried away. BCH went from 260 to 350, the short-term sentiment is already very full. The futures officially launch on October 19, so this is an early realization of expectations. If after launch it turns into "buy the rumor, sell the fact," those chasing highs will suffer.
The market is really good, but I tell myself not to get blinded by all the green on the screen. The good days are still ahead, but your entry point determines whether you feast or stand guard.$BTC has completed its 54th day of dollar-cost averaging today.
The real test for investors is never the price going up, but rather several months of sideways movement with no obvious gains, and even occasional pullbacks.
Every "B" in this chart represents chips I accumulated bit by bit during the market downturn and the worst sentiment.
Now BTC has surged to $87,000, the total crypto market cap has returned to $3 trillion, and sentiment is clearly heating up.
But the strategy remains unchanged: only use spare money, keep buying small amounts continuously, don’t chase highs or sell lows, plan to hold until 2029, and execute according to a full cycle.
Instead, I want to ask everyone a question:
If BTC doesn’t rise for the next 3 consecutive months, or even fluctuates repeatedly, can you still stick to dollar-cost averaging?
⚠️This is only a personal real trading record and does not constitute any investment advice. Someone released short-selling news, how Uniswap changes the game
Recently, there have been many short-selling voices against Uniswap (UNI) in the market. However, at the same time, a series of fundamental and technical moves by Uniswap are fundamentally changing the dynamics of this long-short battle.
Short-selling voices in the market
At the beginning of September, Unicoin filed a lawsuit against Uniswap Labs, demanding the cancellation of the UNI trademark. The market immediately showed obvious bearish sentiment. Some traders said, "The rebound is just for selling," and pointed out that UNI fell for four consecutive days from $7.483 to $6.035, with multi-period indicators turning bearish.
On-chain data also once favored the bears. Analysis pointed out that whale selling pressure reached 71%, while buying pressure was only 20%. Exchange inflows were relatively high, open interest (OI) dropped by 5.7%, funding rate was -1.0000%, and the long-short ratio was only 0.56 times. Based on these data, some traders gave short-selling suggestions: entry price at $5.93 or a rebound to $6.00, with targets at $5.80, $5.50, or even $5.20.
These bearish logics are not baseless, but the key issue is that they are mainly based on technical aspects and short-term capital flows, while ignoring the structural changes happening in Uniswap.
How Uniswap changes the game
First, it has captured 80% of the tokenized US stock trading volume.
Uniswap posted on platform X that 80% of all Robinhood stock token trading volume is on UnisOn September 22, a significant on-chain fund reallocation occurred. According to Lookonchain monitoring, a certain whale exchanged approximately 1,308 BTC (about $104 million) for 40,670 ETH over the past 6 days, then staked all of it. In just one day, the conversion of 200.71 BTC (about $17.2 million) → 6,247 ETH was completed. What makes this move noteworthy is not just the scale of funds, but its direction: switching from BTC to ETH and further entering the staking system. Meanwhile, both BTC and ETH have recently been in a high-level consolidation phase, with market funds beginning to show more obvious structural rotation. The whale’s continuous increase in ETH holdings and locking also indicates that some large funds are betting on the mid-to-long-term opportunities of the Ethereum ecosystem. Of course, the actions of a single whale cannot directly represent the entire market trend, but such a large-scale BTC→ETH fund migration is indeed worth ongoing observation. Additionally, as the total market capitalization of the crypto market returns to $2.8 trillion, and Strategy once again increases BTC holdings, continuously strengthening its treasury allocation, market attention to mainstream assets and institutional fund movements is also heating up. The next key points to watch are: 🔹 Whether ETH whales continue to increase holdings and stake 🔹 Whether the BTC→ETH fund rotation can continue 🔹 After ETH breaks through key resistance, whether funds further spread to ecosystem assets Mid-term trading does not chase sentiment; first, watch the funds.Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $433 million on Friday, effectively pulling this week's data back into positive growth. Ethereum ETFs, however, ended a four-week streak of inflows, indicating a rotation of funds. ETH current price is 2746.85, having already broken through the 2500 consolidation range. Analysts are calling for 3000, but I don't buy slogans, I only watch the charts.
Just replaced a light bulb in corridor 3, my legs are a bit sore from climbing the ladder.
The upper Bollinger Band is pressing down, RSI is approaching overbought, MACD shows a golden cross but momentum is clearly weakening. CoinGlass data is even more direct: a large liquidation zone is pressing above 2769.7, with liquidation volume surging near 2797.6. Bulls and bears are fiercely battling here, chasing longs is not cost-effective.
In terms of operation, buy in batches on pullbacks to the 2680-2700 range, set stop loss at 2630, and accept loss if broken. Take profit first target at 2797, second target at 2860. If volume suddenly spikes and breaks below 2630, reverse to a light short position with a target of 2550. At the current price of 2746, do not chase, wait for a better position.
$ETH
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓
@OKX星球 Big Brother Maji's current holdings this round (current price BTC 86100, ETH 2750)
No liquidation or position reduction records seen on-chain, heavy long positions remain unchanged; at the early morning peak, the account showed over 11 million in unrealized profits, which have continued to shrink after this pullback.
Position-wise account estimation
1. ETH | 25x long position, opened at 2480-2510
Current price 2750, unrealized profit of 3.9-4.2 million USD. With 25x leverage, a rapid drop of about 3.7% would approach the liquidation range; daily long funding fees continuously erode profits.
2. BTC | 40x long position, opened at 79800
Current price 86100, unrealized profit of 720-780 thousand USD. 40x leverage carries the highest risk; a price reversal of only 1.7% would trigger forced liquidation, leaving a very thin safety margin.
3. HYPE | 10x auxiliary long position
Small unrealized profit of 180-240 thousand USD, with less volatility than the two main positions.
Account total: total nominal exposure about 126 million USD; overall leverage close to 10x; current total unrealized profit about 4.8-5.2 million USD.
Interpretation from a practitioner's perspective
1. All are just unrealized paper profits with no withdrawals or profit-taking. He tends to convert unrealized profits into margin to increase positions, not actively cashing out; as long as there is another round of rapid price spikes, millions in profits will quickly shrink, a pattern repeated many times historically.
2. BTC is now at 86100, very close to the key support at 85000; if the market quickly drops, the 40x BTC position will be the first to face pressure, directly causing the entire account's net value to plunge."Today's Gossip"
A hidden change in BTC: Whale OTC inventory has shrunk by more than 75%
This might be even more important than "a certain whale buying tens of millions of BTC."
On-chain analyst Darkfost's data shows that the known BTC OTC trading platform addresses currently hold about 123,000 BTC.
Back in September 2021, these addresses held nearly 500,000 BTC.
In other words, the holdings of known OTC addresses have dropped by over 75% compared to then.
Why?
There are several explanations currently:
* BTC moving into long-term cold wallets
* Institutional custody
* Changes in miner selling methods
* Some trades shifting from OTC to public markets
* Possible omissions in address classification itself
So it cannot be simply understood as:
"OTC has no coins left, BTC will surge immediately."
But this change is worth long-term observation.
Because if more and more BTC is not on exchanges or OTC, but in long-term wallets—
The actual liquid chips that the market can use to dump might change.The most unusual detail in today's market is: $BTC only rose 0.67% in 24h, with the amplitude of 30 candlesticks compressed to 2.65%, while $NIL surged 24% with an amplitude close to 30% during the same period. In the same timeframe and market, funds are clearly shifting towards high-volatility small-cap targets, mainstream coins are being drained but have not fallen—this "low volume sideways + capital outflow" structure is usually not a top signal, but a chip consolidation period before the main upward wave.
In a horizontal comparison: $BTC current price is 86211.7, MA5 (86237.1) still stands above MA20 (86161.6), the moving averages remain in a bullish alignment without breaking; RSI at 56.2 is in a neutral to slightly strong zone, with room before overbought; MACD histogram at -87.81 is negative, but the price has not weakened accordingly, which is a typical indicator lag rather than a trend reversal. In contrast, $NIL's RSI is already 73.8 entering overbought territory, Bollinger upper band at 0.0873 is within reach, making chasing the high very low in cost-effectiveness; $TAO shows MA5<MA20, MACD bearish, and a 24h decline of 1.80%, making it the weakest link in the sector.
The relative strength ranking is clear: $BTC is "steady accumulation", $NIL is "emotional exhaustion", and $TAO is "trend deterioration".FLOWS ARE COOLING, BUT PRICE IS STILL HOLDING
On Sep 22, Spot ETF flows remained positive:
$BTC +$104.54M → cumulative $56.26B
$ETH +$37.70M → cumulative $13.56B
But inflows were much smaller than previous day.
Current prices remain at $BTC $86.49K, $ETH $2.76K, still close to recent highs of $87.40K and $2.81K.
The key point: ETF flows are slowing, but price has NOT broken down.
The question is no longer "Are ETFs buying?"
If ETF flows weaken, what demand isIran confirms meeting with the US side, proposes conditions for reopening the Strait
Earlier, market rumors about the Strait potentially reopening temporarily suppressed oil prices, followed by reports of Iran denying such news; now that the US and Iran have completed direct talks, Iran has formally put forward strict conditions for reopening the Strait, but this does not mean the US has accepted these demands. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil transportation, and the negotiation conditions are highly demanding, with a long way to go before a real agreement is reached. The progress of subsequent negotiations will directly affect the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil. If talks reach a deadlock, oil prices are likely to be supported again; if there is a substantial breakthrough in negotiations, it will suppress oil prices.Is the current macro setup actually supportive of the speculative rotation into $XRP and $DOGE, or are traders misreading a temporary liquidity flush for a structural trend? The honest answer is that both narratives have merit right now, and the distinction hinges on stablecoin flows rather than headline sentiment. When on-chain stablecoin minting tracks with spot exchange inflows, it creates a thin but genuine supply of dry powder that fuels retail-driven speculative assets. When that minting dWoke up from a sleep, and a friend's message popped up: "$ZEC pumped again, reaching a high of 1652!" I checked OKX and saw the current price at 1607. The long position I opened at 1471 is now up 27%. Those who said I was "chasing too high" back then are probably laughing in the group chat now.
To be honest, when I opened the long at 1471, I believed in it. ZEC had just dropped from 1595 to 1434, and I bought at 1471. After buying, it was at a floating loss. When it hit the low of 1434, someone in the group said, "Daring to go long at this level? You're just waiting to get buried." I stayed silent, set my stop loss, and bet that this volatile coin would spike again. It actually delivered, rallying from 1434 all the way back to 1652, giving the shorts another round of losses.
I glanced at the $ZEC order book; 1652 is today's high, and the current price of 1607 has pulled back a bit, indicating some profit-taking above. The volume is smaller than the previous surge, more like a short squeeze momentum rather than a new trend. Resistance is between 1650-1700; only a volume breakout above that range would justify looking at 1800. Support lies between 1550-1580; breaking below that would signal weakness.
Those who said 1470 was too high are probably slapping their thighs now. But I won't mock; the market humbles all kinds of arrogance. Those laughing at others today might be the ones laughed at tomorrow.Bitcoin Surpasses 86000: Greed High, Liquidation Data Reveals New Bull-Bear Signals
Bitcoin today stabilized above $86000, currently at $86412, up 0.48% in 24 hours, up 12.96% over 7 days, with market cap rebounding to $1.74 trillion. The strong rebound continues, with some analysts viewing it as a signal that the crypto "winter" has ended.
Liquidation Structure
In the past 24 hours, total network liquidations reached $347 million, including $218 million long positions and $129 million short positions, with longs about 1.7 times shorts; 157,000 people were liquidated, Binance's largest single WLD liquidation was $3.4863 million. During the rise, many long positions were liquidated, indicating leverage is being cleared rather than a pure short squeeze; the large WLD liquidation also exposes the vulnerability of high leverage in non-mainstream coins.
Sentiment and Funds
The Fear and Greed Index dropped from 78 to 71, still in the greed zone but cooling marginally. This aligns with the dominance of long liquidations, showing increased market profit-taking willingness and possibly amplified short-term volatility. BTC funding rate is +0.0064%, ETH +0.0052%, longs pay but not extremely. Six large transfers totaling about $699 million in 24 hours, active on-chain but no abnormal concentration. Crypto total market cap is about $2.94 trillion, still about 30% below the October peak, valuation not overheated.
Comprehensive Observation
Stabilization above 86000 is driven by ETF demand recovery and short covering. Long liquidations exceed shorts, showing coexistence of leverage clearing and short covering. If short liquidations rise later, a new round of short squeeze may brew; if longs continue to dominate, high-level chips still need time to digest.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 #BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
$BTC surged to 87,000, total crypto market cap returned to 3 trillion, this rally is quite strong
Just opened the market, BTC hit a high of 87,399, although it has now pulled back to around 86,286 and is fluctuating, overall it remains steady over 24 hours. More importantly, the total crypto market cap has climbed back above 3 trillion USD.
This move isn’t just BTC alone. ETH, SOL, and $XRP are all rising in sync, showing strength across major assets. The capital flow is also cooperating; BTC spot ETF saw outflows for two consecutive days before, but in the last two days it recorded about $592 million net inflow again. This indicates institutional buying has returned.
There’s another detail worth noting. After $BTC broke through 82,000, the open interest in futures contracts increased by about $2 billion. This shows that after large-scale short positions were liquidated, new leveraged positions are still coming in. In this rally, shorts were forcibly pushed out.
Right now, I only have that OKB dollar-cost averaging running; other positions have been mostly cleared. Looking at this market, I do feel a bit of regret Ϟ(๑⚈ ․̫ ⚈๑)⋆ETH has reclaimed the 2750 level, with the focus not on the price increase itself, but on the chips being tightened together by three lines.
Market line: BTC strengthened first, ETH broke out of a nearly one-month consolidation range and surpassed resistance near 2660, repairing the short-term structure. The immediate target above is 2775-2825; only by stabilizing here can 3050 come into range; the support near 2560 is a confirmation level, and 2825 is the breakout point. If 2350 is lost, the bullish scenario needs to be rewritten.
Company line: BitMine has acquired another 27,562 ETH, bringing its holdings close to 5.98 million ETH, of which about 5.07 million are staked. It is not passively waiting for price increases but is transforming ETH into a treasury that generates yield.
Network line: Lido has reorganized 8.4 million staked ETH into about 4,000 validators. This does not mean an additional 8.4 million ETH staked, but a reallocation of existing funds to improve operational efficiency.
When market breakout, company lock-up, and network efficiency improvements coincide in the same window, this ETH rally is not just following BTC.
BTC rises on the consensus of "more expensive in the future"; ETH, besides narrative, must have its tokens generate cash flow.
Yesterday afternoon, I tried a 50x short position, opened at 2723, and finally closed at 2750 around 9 PM, indicating that big market moves are not suitable for shorts. The resistance at 87,374.30 that was asked about yesterday gave its answer today. Even though the spot ETF saw nearly $1 billion (999 million USD) inflow in a single day, marking the largest net inflow in 11 months, $BTC surged to 87,374.30 but still couldn't hold, with the current price retreating to 86,180.10.
Institutional buying is solid, but the contract market's chasing power has clearly cooled: the funding rate dropped to +0.0019%, open interest increased only slightly by 0.3% in one day, and the active buy-sell ratio is at 1.00. On-chain exchanges had a net outflow of 3,867 BTC in one day, with 711,168 active addresses, indicating no panic in the spot market. This stagnation is mainly due to futures lacking strength to chase prices before the resistance level.
Our 3.5-day BTC long position triggered a trailing stop exit, locking in a +117.2% profit.
Structurally, the 4H RSI is in the overheated zone at 82.1. The daily candle must close above 87,374.30 to be considered a breakout; if it falls below the 4H EMA20 at 83,910.83, short-term chips will face a pullback.
Despite massive ETF net inflows, the key price level couldn't be pushed. Do you think this is spot market consolidation and turnover, or a stagnation before the bullish momentum is exhausted?
#BTC #ChipAnalysis #MarketDynamics
Personal observation, not investment advice, please assess risks yourself. This ETH short position was the worst loss since I started training, giving Xiao Ma a harsh lesson.
Shorted at 2634, 100x full position sprint, holding firm until the end.
The moment I saw a -433% return, Xiao Ma froze at the starting line, mind completely blank.
There were many chances to exit earlier, but I didn’t, couldn’t press the take profit button, even if I hadn’t taken profit, the loss would have been much smaller 🥺🥺🥺
Originally thought this rally was just a brief fake sprint, the overall trend was bearish, underestimated the resilience of the sector market!
Leverage is like a racehorse’s burst of speed; when running the right track, profits soar wildly, but once running the wrong way, losses come rushing in so fast you can’t dodge them.
When I won a few races before, I naively thought I understood the rhythm of the track.
Now I realize one thing: even if the big direction is right, under high leverage, you can’t withstand a short-term sprint and will still be thrown off hard.
You can’t blindly trust your own predictions; under high leverage, you absolutely must not stubbornly hold against the trend!
The track won’t run according to Xiao Ma’s thoughts, and the market won’t accommodate my position.
This entry fee was very expensive, this pain Xiao Ma will remember deeply.
In the future, controlling leverage and stop-loss lines cannot be neglected.
Always respect the track, respect the market ✨
This does not constitute investment advice; virtual currency contracts carry extremely high risk!
$ETH $BTC $ZEC
#BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
#Fed’s probability of another rate hike in October exceeds 55%
#Strategy increases holdings again, Treasury also adds positionsCFTC is targeting Kalshi! What really deserves caution is not the word "wash trading," but how much of the trading volume is genuine! According to WSJ reports, the U.S. CFTC is examining a large amount of abnormal trading in Kalshi's crypto perpetual contracts. Data shows that recently there have been many repeated trades near $5500 in ETH perpetual contracts, and these trades account for a significant portion of the volume.
This is why the market is starting to question: does such a large volume represent real capital competition, or are some trades coming from market makers and incentive mechanisms?
Kalshi currently explicitly denies the existence of fake trades, stating that these repeated orders come from market makers placing fixed-amount orders, while hundreds of different traders actively execute on the other side. The platform also prevents self-trading by accounts and monitors coordinated trading.
So, we cannot directly conclude that Kalshi is "wash trading"; what we really need to wait for is the CFTC's follow-up investigation results.
But this matter actually serves as an important reminder for the entire crypto market: volume ≠ real capital demand.
Especially for emerging derivatives platforms, fee rebates, market-making incentives, and fixed order strategies can make nominal volume look very impressive, but what truly determines market quality are real positions, real users, the independence of buyers and sellers, and price discovery ability.
For BTC and ETH, I actually think this is a signal worth paying attention to. If prediction markets and crypto perpetual contracts continue to expand rapidly in the future, regulators will definitely pay more and more attention to the authenticity of trading volume and the risk of market manipulation.
高位横盘不是没故事，是故事还没轮到所有人听见。 你看到的是强势，还是派发前的安静？ 我盯了一整天的板块强弱，越看越觉得现在像洗筹末端、分歧开场。BTC 在高位区域维持韧性，回撤幅度被压得很小；ETH 和 SOL 的获利了结更明显，短线抛压也偏重。表面看是同步震荡，实际上是三种完全不同的节奏。 主镜头放在板块强弱上会更清楚。BTC 是这轮的情绪锚，它只要不丢关键支撑，市场就还有底气；ETH 更像在建底，止跌比反弹本身更重要；SOL 弹性最大，也最诚实，一旦先修复，往往代表风险偏好开始回暖。反过来，如果 BTC 横住但 ETH 继续阴跌、SOL 反弹无力，那就不是强势整理，而是筹码在悄悄换手。 今天整体成交偏淡，观望气氛压过进攻意愿。这种环境里，单根 K 线说明不了任何事，真正要看的是价格和量能有没有一起动。没有量配合的突破，大概率只是情绪脉冲；有量承接的回踩，反而更值得记一笔。 偏多的路径是：BTC 横盘蓄势，ETH 筑底完成，SOL 率先回暖，三者共振后动能重新累积。偏空的风险是：高位久盘不涨，山寨先走弱，资金偏好从进攻切向防守，轮动变成撤退。 我更倾向于把现在定义为博弈与洗筹交织的阶Gold seemed to crash, but unexpectedly pulled back for two consecutive days.
The $XAU sellers have plenty of reasons to be confident: The Fed remains hawkish, yields are still high, and pressure on gold persists.
The sellers pushed the price down but couldn’t hold the gains.
- It could be bottom catchers.
- It could be defensive capital.
- It could also be previous sellers starting to take profits.
The two long-legged candles indicate a rather special psychological state: Sellers are confident about the macro story, while buyers are confident in the price action. 📊 BTC Daily Watch｜September 23
🔥 After BTC surged to about $87K, what truly matters is the capital flow, not just the price.
During the last rally, BTC once broke through $87,000, while the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow close to $999 million, marking the highest single-day inflow in nearly 11 months, indicating a clear rebound in institutional participation.
👀 Today, focus on 3 key signals:
🟢 BTC: Can it hold above $85K–$86K?
🟡 ETH: Can it continue to stay above $2.7K and narrow the strength gap with BTC?
🔵 Altcoins: Is capital further spreading from BTC to ETH, SOL, and other high-beta assets?
⚠️ Don’t mistake the speed of the rise for trend confirmation.
Price can create sentiment, but sustained ETF inflows, volume, and capital rotation better indicate whether the market trend has continuity.
🎯 Watch capital flow, not just green candles.
If BTC consolidates at a high level while ETH and altcoins continue to absorb capital, the market structure may further expand; otherwise, be cautious of a pullback after the surge.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC87KCryptoCap3T #CryptoTreasuriesBuy #BTCETF #CryptoMarket Four Top 20 assets ran past $BTC on a day Bitcoin hit an eight-month high. $BCH added almost 21% in a day, $NEAR R is up 85% on the week, $DOGE GE reclaimed ten cents and $XRP gained over 6%. Only two have a named cause: a CME futures listing for $BCH H and roughly $30B routed through NEAR Intents. The other two arrived alongside $844M of liquidated shorts.$ZEC #BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
Above 1350 is still strong bullish pullback; breaking below 1350 and failing to rebound confirms a phase shift to bearish;
Breaking 1155 again means the trend is really broken.
Short positions, don't fantasize about a crash near 1500, use 1350 as the gate: if it climbs back to 1500/1560, admit the mistake; if it breaks 1350, look at 1207/1155.
For spot holders, it's simpler: hold above 1350, reduce if it breaks 1350, exit if it breaks 1155.$BTC today closed with a red D candle again.
What I pay attention to is not the red candle itself, but the buying power is no longer as strong as the 76k -> 81k -> 87k segment.
The price is still in a high range, but each push up to 86.5k - 87k starts to show clearer profit-taking pressure.
Looking at the cash flow.
-> ETF still had a session absorbing nearly 100 million dollars, so we can't say big money has withdrawn from BTC yet.
-> But futures OI has strongly increased again, funding is positive, and leverage is returning to the market.Quite a few macro news overnight, but the coin prices remained pretty calm.
Barkin stays hawkish, and the US and Iran are still negotiating.
BTC 86.2K, ETH 2750.
It's pointless to force a direction at times like this. Lots of news, prices don't move, that itself is information.
Let the market choose sides first.
$BTC $ETH In the entire crypto space, only Bitcoin has the highest certainty of rising in the long term and is the most worth holding for the long haul. Others, at most, add Ethereum, but its performance in the 2023 to 2025 bull market cycle is average.
Other so-called mainstream coins and altcoins are just fleeting illusions. In the future, when I encounter coins that have had a short-term burst, I will cash out these altcoins when sentiment is high and convert them into Bitcoin. Remember not to hold long-term; holding long-term most likely underperforms Bitcoin. Even when gambling on probabilities, convert to Bitcoin.
This is the investment principle of using the end to achieve wealth and guarding it with the principal. However, a small number of people only buy Bitcoin and still achieve great results without worry. This is also good. Actually, if I had just entered the space and only bought Bitcoin, the results would have been much better than now.
But now I use a barbell strategy, which is also fine. Most of the funds are used to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a small portion to bet on new narratives, new assets, and to position for positive developments. Since I am full-time in crypto, I naturally research new projects to capture some alpha. But if you are part-time in crypto, just buy Bitcoin entirely; the results might even be better.Summarizing the main logic of the current round so far:
Altcoins:
1. Real revenue/buyback/RWA
Benefiting from Hyperliquid using the vast majority of its income for buybacks and token burns, many projects have started to follow suit. However, it is important to distinguish whether a project genuinely generates revenue and uses it for buybacks, or is just shuffling data from one hand to the other.
Due to the on-chain transaction boom driven by this wave of RWA, many related infrastructure metrics such as transaction volume, TVL, and revenue have experienced explosive growth. Combined with the aforementioned buyback and burn mechanism, this has fueled the current altcoin season. Unlike before, many tokens' price increases this time are driven by a positive flywheel of data growth -> revenue -> buyback, with tokens truly beginning to capture protocol value.
Representative tokens include $HYPE, $UNI, $RAY, $LIT, and emerging leading launchpads like $PONS, $STONK, and $AI can also be categorized here.
2. Privacy/AI
This line focuses more on narrative than data. Pumping naturally involves grand debates. The most typical example is $ZEC. Other strong tokens include $NEAR (privacy transactions, full-chain transactions, Naval's retweet), and $VVV (privacy AI, tokenized computing power).In the past 24 hours, the crypto market continued to maintain strength, but one change has started to draw attention: prices are still rising, but ETF inflows have clearly cooled down. BTC held above $86,000, ETH and SOL continued to rise slightly, but the market has gradually entered a high-level rotation phase after the rapid breakout the previous day. Meanwhile, BCH surged nearly 30% in a single day due to CME futures news, indicating that funds are shifting from a broad rally logic to more distinct event-driven rotation. Currently, the market is better defined as: cautiously bullish with high-level oscillation. 📊 BTC holds above $86,000, sentiment begins to cool As of 09:24 HKT: BTC $86,665, 24h +1.20% ETH $2,769.42, 24h +0.81% SOL $119.06, 24h +1.12% Total crypto market cap approximately $2.956 trillion BTC dominance 58.73% Fear and Greed Index: 71 — Greed Previous value was: 78 — Extreme Greed This is a significant change today. BTC price remains high, but market sentiment has retreated from "Extreme Greed." This is not a bad thing. If the price can maintain strength while sentiment moderately cools, it is actually beneficial for digesting the previously overheated chasing sentiment. On the other hand, the total crypto market cap data over 24 hours shows a 1.68% decline, indicating that internal market divergence is expanding, and not all assets are following BTC's rise. 💰 EWhat will be the ultimate fate of $CORE?
The most likely outcome for CORE is not an instant death, but rather being completely marginalized by the market through a prolonged period of decline.
Price-wise: Since the circulating supply continues to increase while demand remains extremely weak, the price will most likely experience a long-term gradual decline or sideways movement within the range of $0.0155 to $0.0255.
Liquidity-wise: As trading volume continues to shrink, some small and medium exchanges may gradually delist CORE like CoinEx did, further compressing its liquidity. At that point, even if you want to sell, you might not find enough counterparties.
Role-wise: CORE will gradually degrade from the former "BTCFi track star" to a neglected fringe asset, with its price fluctuations no longer related to any narrative, driven only by sporadic retail speculation.10u Position Week 1
First trade: Short +5U (already took profit) Sandisk
Second trade: Short -5U (already stopped loss) Sandisk
Third trade: Short (in progress) Gold
Fourth trade: Short (in progress) Sandisk
Still following the four essential principles for opening positions
1. Do not open positions at non-key support or resistance levels
Gold: Currently, on the 1h chart, gold is in a triple push bear flag and double top structure, meeting the conditions for shorting
Sandisk: Currently, on the 5min chart, a triple push bear flag and double top structure appear; 5min meets shorting conditions, 1h shows double top structure, and there was a major breakout last night, possibly filling the gap downward, returning to Fibonacci 0.5, then moving north
2. Do not open positions without signals
Gold: Observed a short signal K on the 1-hour chart and placed a pending order below
Sandisk: Signal K appeared on the 1-hour chart but the follow-through was poor; a short signal K appeared on the 5min chart
3. Do not open positions if no stop-loss level can be found
Gold: Double top structure at 4380.9
Sandisk: Double top structure at 1908.1
4. Do not open positions if the stop-loss is too large or the risk-reward ratio is too small
Gold: Currently, stop-loss is placed at the start of the triple push structure, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:2
Sandisk: The first stop-loss is placed at the start of the 5min triple push structure at 1858, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:1; if it breaks the start position, observe for exit signals. The second stop-loss is because the take profit is at the rising gap and Fibonacci 0.5 level, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:3Don't be fooled by this -1.95% bearish candle — it's not a collapse, but a settlement joint proactively left in the main structure before pouring.
I laid out $GALFT's chart on the drafting table. My first judgment: it's not crashing, but searching for a foundational bearing layer. It only sank 1.95% in 24 hours, not even enough to count as a cross-section loss of a structural column; the real safety indicator is the short-term RSI dropping to 32.7, below the buy threshold of 38, indicating the bottom-fishing is reinforcing near the lower band. The long-term RSI at 45.0 is still below the midline, the structure is intact but hasn't formed a continuous beam for an upward breakout. The whitepaper is just a rendering; community equity and event scenarios are the load-bearing walls. Here, construction quality must be assessed, not just facade renderings.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands: the short-term price is only at 5% position, just 0.1% from the lower band, and still 2.6% clearance from the upper band; the mid-term is even more extreme, price position at -3%, running close to the lower band at -0.1%, with 4.7% rebound space to the upper band. This means selling pressure has pushed the floor to temporary support, but the mid-term is still in negative deviation, indicating local over-excavation of the foundation, so don't blindly go full position on columns.
My construction plan does not chase highs. The current price of 0.91 is not unbuyable, but the cost-performance is like installing a chandelier in an unfinished shell before inspection. The real entry is at 0.87, 4.2% below the current price, waiting for the price to backfill to the short-term structural bottom before pouring. The first target is 0.97, corresponding to +6.7%, which is the first ring beam; the secondary target is 0.95, corresponding to +4.7%, serving as a safe unloading point. Stop loss is set at 0.78, 14.1% below the current price; once breached, it means the load-bearing wall has a through crack, and facade styling is no longer discussed.
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.87 (current price -4.2%)
Take Profit 1: 0.97 (+6.7%)
Take Profit 2: 0.95 (+4.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.78 (-14.1%)
Structural engineering only recognizes load paths, not sentiment; if $GALFT can't hold 0.78, the whole building isn't even worth stripping the formwork.🎣 The tide is rising, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to throw the entire net into the water. Bitcoin surged to around **$87,374 on Sept. 21**, marking its strongest level since late January. At the same time, the total crypto market briefly reclaimed the **$3 trillion** market-cap milestone. BTC has since cooled toward the **$86.4K** area, so momentum has slowed even though the broader structure remains active. Here are the numbers I’m watching: 📈 **ETF demand remains strong.** U.S. spot Bitc