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Today (08-25) ETH current price is about 2472 USDT, 24H range 2424-2530 USDT, slight increase in 24 hours; 7-day increase close to 30%, representing a high-level wide-range consolidation after a violent surge.
✅ Market Assessment
Macro structure: Weekly bullish trend remains intact, daily chart is in a severe overbought correction phase. This round of market movement is driven by the decline in US Treasury yields and BTC ETF capital inflows. ETH shows higher elasticity than BTC, with a huge short-term increase; daily RSI is in the overbought zone, with bullish floating profits accumulating, making it difficult to sustain continuous large bullish candles, mainly oscillating back and forth to shake out floating positions.
ETH/BTC ratio slightly falls, indicating short-term funds no longer excessively increase Ethereum positions. The market remains highly dependent on the BTC market; once BTC pulls back, ETH’s retracement will be larger.
Core driving priorities:
① US Treasury yields and US Dollar Index (macro fundamentals); a rebound in US Treasuries puts pressure on ETH, while weakening supports bulls.
② BTC market trend, as BTC anchors the entire crypto market.
③ Expectations around ETH spot ETF narrative and institutional capital inflows; currently no major new positive news, mostly a game of existing positions.
Current contract capital status:
Open Interest remains high, perpetual funding rates maintain slight positive, bullish crowding remains high; 24-hour volatility increases, long-short battles intensify; during early morning low liquidity periods, the risk of downward spikes to sweep stop losses should not be ignored.
⚠️ Correction scenario (key warning): A volume break below 2420 with a 4-hour close below will trigger concentrated profit-taking by bulls, prioritizing a retest of 2340; if BTC weakens simultaneously, further decline to 2260 is possible, with a relatively fast correction pace. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
In a high-level market, protecting the floating profits already gained is more important than chasing higher returns.
After this huge rebound, many accounts have accumulated substantial floating profits on paper, but floating profits on paper do not equal actual realized profits. As long as positions remain in the market, a significant pullback can wipe out much of the previous gains. The most dangerous trap during high-level consolidation is being lulled by floating profits, continuously increasing positions, and expecting the market to rise indefinitely. A more pragmatic approach is to manage positions in batches: take profits on some positions to secure real gains; keep a small base position to speculate on potential new highs; and strictly set stop losses on short-term positions. No one can perfectly ride the entire market cycle, so there is no need to insist on selling at the absolute peak. In a highly divergent high market, preserving the money already earned should always take priority over chasing uncertain excess returns.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 180 billion, more than just a number—USDT is becoming the "shadow dollar" in emerging markets
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1. Milestone: $180 billion, the "tipping point" for stablecoins
As of August 25, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed that USDT's market cap has surpassed $180 billion.
This is not a static stock figure. From the range of about $180-190 billion in January 2026 to now officially crossing the $180 billion mark, USDT is still expanding. More importantly, its use cases are accelerating from "crypto trading pairs" to "real-world settlement tools."
2. Four countries, four "USDT survival modes"
🇻🇪 Venezuela: Oil settled in USDT, P2P trading volume equals 75% of oil exports
In 2025, economist Asdrubal Oliveros pointed out that nearly 80% of Venezuela's crude oil revenue is paid via stablecoins. The state oil company PDVSA required USDT prepayment for oil as early as 2023, and by Q1 2024, many transactions demanded half of the payment upfront. The P2P stablecoin market volume has reached 75% of the country's monthly oil exports, with 90.2% of Binance P2P order book listings involving USDT. The local currency bolívar has depreciated 99.8% over ten years, making USDT a lifeline for ordinary people’s cross-border remittances, savings, and daily payments.
🇦🇷 Argentina: Central bank loosens regulations, USDT daily trading volume surges to $180 million
Following new central bank rules easing corporate access to "crypto dollars," local exchanges' daily USDT trading volume climbed to $180 million, a 240% increase from the previous week. The peso-USDT spread narrowed from 4.2% to 0.8%, making buying dollars via crypto cheaper than bank wire transfers. Companies can now purchase up to $2 million in crypto dollars daily (previously required a 90-day wait). Within four days, 1,200 companies registered, and three major agricultural exporters sold $42 million worth of soybean receipts in USDT.
🇧🇴 Bolivia: From retail payments to national payment system
Two major local banks in Bolivia—Banco Unión and FIE Bank—have launched USDT-related services. In retail scenarios, Tether's CEO personally revealed that local stores accept USDT for dairy products, chocolates, and other consumer goods. Economy Minister José Gabriel Espinoza stated at a press conference that the government is evaluating integrating USDT into the national payment system, circulating alongside the Boliviano and the dollar. If implemented, Bolivia would become the first Latin American country to officially include USDT alongside fiat in its payment system.
🇹🇷 Turkey: Residents use USDT to cope with persistent inflation
Turkish residents hold USDT to counter the continuous depreciation of the local currency. In a high-inflation environment, USDT is becoming the "digital dollar savings account" for ordinary people.
3. Three signals behind these data
1. The leap from "medium of exchange" to "store of value"
USDT is no longer just a "counterparty tool" on exchanges. It replaces the collapsed local currency in Venezuela, becomes the choice for corporate cross-border settlements in Argentina, and is entering discussions for national payment systems in Bolivia. Stablecoins are completing the transition from "crypto assets" to "real money."
2. From "compliance audits" to "national adoption"
In March 2026, Tether hired KPMG for a comprehensive audit of USDT reserves, which exceeded liabilities by $6.814 billion. As USDT begins to be evaluated by sovereign states for inclusion in payment systems, it has transcended the "crypto asset" category and entered the realm of national financial infrastructure.
3. The "Matthew effect" in the stablecoin market
USDT and USDC together account for about 90% of the total stablecoin market. USDT's dominance in emerging and sanctioned markets builds an unreplicable moat of real-world usage. When USDT appears simultaneously in Venezuela's oil settlements, Argentina's agricultural exports, and Bolivia's national payment system discussions, its moat is shifting from "on-chain liquidity" to "real-world trade networks."
4. Summary
$180 billion is a number for USDT but a turning point for the stablecoin industry.
When a stablecoin simultaneously appears in Venezuela's oil settlements, Argentina's agricultural exports, and Bolivia's national payment system discussions, it has surpassed the "crypto asset" category and entered the realm of national financial infrastructure. USDT is evolving from a "trading counterparty" in the crypto world to the "shadow dollar" in emerging markets. #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
$BTC Brothers, recently the US bond market has been quite turbulent, even more exciting than the crypto K-line charts. The Treasury is desperately trying to suppress long-term Treasury yields, doubling the repo scale to $4 billion each time, but the market simply isn't buying it — the 10-year yield is still stuck at 4.7%, and the 30-year yield has shot above 5.2%, nearly reaching the 2019 highs.
I reviewed reports from major banks like Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, and they basically say the same thing: relying on repos alone won't work; there needs to be a real macroeconomic shift. Economic growth slowing, inflation coming down, the Fed's clear stance, or fiscal consolidation — otherwise, long-term rates won't drop. The market is still confused about Fed Chair Waller's path, and to make things worse, Trump is stirring trouble with Iran. Even the German Finance Minister has criticized, saying the rate surge is caused by that war, and European borrowing costs are suffering as a result.
What does this mean for our crypto circle? Simply put, if long-term yields don't come down, market liquidity tightens, and risk assets including $BTC and $ETH will struggle to have big moves in the short term. But conversely, if one day policies really push yields down, and financial conditions ease, big coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum will definitely rally.
I'm basically mostly out of positions now; my friend's account only holds a small tail position with tight stop-losses. During this macro uncertainty, I won't rush; I'll wait until the direction is clear. Managing money for friends, stability beats everything. Do you think these yields can come down? Let's discuss in the comments.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $NES Stop touching it, the project team has already RUGged, it won't rise back!
1. The current price difference between OKX and the neighboring exchange is because OKX has already closed NES deposits and withdrawals, so basically no one is trading, causing this. Those holding spot, run quickly.
2. This kind of complete Rug pull to zero can just be treated as a Meme play. Those who bottom-fished last night took the chips, someone has to pay. Who will buy? In the end, it can only end unresolved PvP.
3. Also, the NES project team’s behavior is a bit ugly; they transferred coins into the exchange and sold them off in the morning, then withdrew liquidity and Rugged in the evening, no pretense at all.
4. It’s still responsible of a big exchange like OKX to have suspended NES deposits early, probably because they detected abnormalities in the project team, very commendable!
Brothers who want to touch it, just treat it as a meme play, don’t expect it to re-anchor August rebound divergence intensifies: BTC steady and solid, ETH elasticity overdrawn, who is safer before Jackson Hole
In August, the crypto market saw the strongest rebound of the year. BTC surged over 23% from a low of $64,000, approaching the $80,000 mark, while ETH rebounded more than 31% from around $1,900 to above $2,500, both marking their best weekly performance of the year. However, after the peak, the market quickly entered a phase of divergence: BTC oscillated narrowly between $75,000 and $79,000, showing strong resistance to decline; ETH fluctuated widely between $2,380 and $2,580, with volatility nearly twice that of BTC. Although both recoveries were driven by ETF capital inflows, their capital base, chip structure, and margin of safety have long been vastly different. The divergence before the Jackson Hole symposium reveals the most genuine risks and opportunities.
BTC follows a typical institutional allocation recovery path, with solid capital, stable base, and low volatility. On the capital side, last week the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $1.9 billion, the highest weekly record since October 2025. BlackRock's IBIT single product contributed over 60% of the increase, clearly showing concentrated buying by leading institutions. However, looking at a longer timeframe, BTC spot ETFs have still seen a cumulative net outflow of about $2.9 billion in 2026, meaning the current massive inflow is essentially a corrective replenishment after continuous outflows in the first half of the year, rather than a full-scale bull market entry of new funds. Capital concentration in leading institutions rather than broad industry-wide gains indicates institutions remain in a tentative allocation phase, seeking mid-to-long-term valuation recovery returns rather than short-term speculative spreads.
Regarding chip structure, BTC is completing an institutional transfer of existing chips. Leading ETF funds have absorbed redemption pressure from traditional products like Grayscale, shifting chips from short-term investors to long-term institutions; on-chain data shows that in the past two weeks, exchanges have seen a net outflow of over 13,000 BTC, with large holders continuously moving coins to cold storage for locking, reducing circulating active chips and strengthening bottom support from the supply side. When the price nears the $80,000 mark, there is a clear lag in price increase, with core resistance coming from the dense historical trapped positions between $78,000 and $82,000 and large whales distributing at highs. This interplay forms a "institutional bottom support, trapped positions pressing down" game, resulting in BTC rising slowly but hardly falling, with a steady and solid trend.
ETH follows an elastic path driven by supply contraction combined with sentiment catalysts, showing strong elasticity, high volatility, and loose chips. In price performance, this rebound saw ETH outperform BTC significantly with over 31% gains, demonstrating strong elasticity. The core drivers behind this are dual resonance: on the supply side, Ethereum staking has reached 41.89 million ETH, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, a new all-time high, with over one-third of circulating chips locked long-term, continuously shrinking tradable supply and fundamentally supporting the price floor; on the demand side, the AI+Crypto narrative heating up combined with ETF capital inflows attracted a large amount of short-term speculative and derivative leveraged funds, further amplifying upward elasticity.
However, the capital base is far less solid than BTC's. Last week, spot ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $697 million, also a near ten-month high, but the absolute volume is only about one-third of BTC's, and BlackRock's single ETHA product contributed over 70% of the increase, showing much higher capital concentration than BTC and lacking broad industry-wide systematic accumulation support. More critically, short-term price surges rely more on sentiment and leverage, with derivative open interest fluctuating over 12% in a single day and funding rates once spiking to 0.08%, indicating a high proportion of short-term speculative funds. This kind of market pulse is strong but weak in sustainability; once market sentiment fades, profit-taking-driven corrections will be much larger than BTC's, as evidenced by ETH's weekend correction nearly twice BTC's decline.
The core variable for short-term trends is the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium at the end of August, also the debut of new Fed Chair Wash. Under the baseline scenario, Wash maintains a neutral and ambiguous stance, with BTC likely continuing to oscillate and rotate between $75,000 and $81,000, digesting trapped position pressure over time; ETH will continue wide fluctuations between $2,380 and $2,550, with sentiment-driven trading dominating. In an optimistic scenario, a dovish signal hinting at rate cuts in Q4 could help BTC steadily break through $80,000, while ETH might surge to another sentiment peak. In a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance triggers a correction; BTC has institutional base support limiting downside, while ETH may face leveraged liquidations and larger adjustments.
Overall, BTC's recovery is led by institutional funds, following macro allocation logic, emphasizing stability and high margin of safety, suitable for mid-term holding; ETH's recovery is supported by fundamentals and sentiment-driven funds, following an elastic game logic, offering larger returns but higher risks, suitable for swing trading. Before the Jackson Hole symposium, market uncertainty rises, with capital favoring the more certain BTC, and divergence likely to continue. In terms of strategy, conservative investors can lean towards BTC for base holdings and accumulate in batches near $75,000 on dips; aggressive investors can trade ETH swings, avoiding chasing highs or stubborn holds, strictly controlling position leverage to mitigate volatility risks during the policy window. $ETH $BTC $DOGE The market may have overestimated the necessity of Warsh's "reassurance"; he is more likely to stick to data dependence and reduce guidance, allowing actual data (rather than speeches) to dominate pricing A friend personally led a team to research Yushu Technology and gave me one sentence: "There is nothing worth digging into." How can it support a valuation of hundreds of billions? The downtrend is obvious. I got in yesterday and already took a 6% hit today. The market should open with a waterfall decline again today, but there is a risk of a short-term rebound. The medium to long term outlook is bearish. Is southbound capital really driving risk appetite when the Hong Kong stock market opens?
1) Has the market answered this?
2) Where is the real impact?
The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.68%, reflecting the market's expectation of a decline in long-term interest rates. If a repurchase plan is launched, it could reduce financing costs and indirectly benefit Hong Kong stock valuations. However, the source of funds is unclear and awaits official confirmation. The overall US stock market performance has not synchronized, so the transmission path is uncertain.
3) Both sides need to be considered
A positive signal is the inflow of southbound capital, showing that mainland funds' confidence in Hong Kong stocks remains intact. On the downside, although US bond yields have dropped, yields on two maturities rebounded at the market close, indicating market disagreement on policy implementation and potential for increased sentiment volatility.
4) What answers are we waiting for?
Waiting for the US Treasury to clarify the source of funds for the repurchase plan, waiting for Alibaba's AI revenue data release, and waiting to see the sustainability of southbound capital flows. No single event can solely determine risk appetite; the market still requires multi-dimensional verification.
For informational and market scenario analysis only, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.This crypto rally was quite fierce, igniting the enthusiasm of the genius trader
Let's first take a closer look at recent events; much of the discussion is based on mistaken causal perceptions.
This rally is not driven by internal events within the crypto community, but rather by the combination of two external events.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the liquidity-backed repo cap for 10- to 30-year Treasuries, raising it from $2 billion to at least $4 billion each time, effective September 9. The mechanical scale of this operation was negligible compared to the $40 trillion debt scale, and the market quickly realized it did not create new buyers, only shortened the duration of existing debt—yield declines were largely recovered within a day.
But the signal is different. At the moment when federal debt surpassed $40 trillion and long-term yields hit their highest level since 2007, the market stepped in to suppress borrowing costs, signaling that policymakers could no longer tolerate sufficiently high long-term interest rates. This directly reinforced depreciation trades, so gold rose in sync with the dollar's weakness. The Financial Times described this wave as the return of debasement trade.
At the same time, Trump publicly called on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. On August 19, over $1.4 billion in short positions were sold across the entire market. Combined, Bitcoin jumped from $64,700 to $79,000, up more than 23% in one week.
Next comes what I believe is the biggest misconception in the discussion.
The common saying is, "Bitcoin's negative news has basically been exhausted,Hormuz oil tanker attacked, US sanctions for the first time list "digital assets" as a secondary target—crypto market directly dragged into the geopolitical battlefield. $BTC safe-haven buying and regulatory headwinds face off, $80,000 repeatedly tested but unbroken, $78k shaky; $ETH lacks independent narrative, $2,500 becomes the ceiling. $OKB suppressed by platform compliance shadows, volatility sharply amplified. In the short term, worsening Hormuz situation may boost BTC, but "digital asset sanctions" are a long-term negative, bulls and bears tug-of-war, direction depends on tonight's Fed statement.
Additionally, if geopolitical risks escalate further, soaring oil prices will exacerbate inflation and recession concerns; meanwhile, US secondary sanctions have already targeted digital assets, long-term compliance pressure and risk-asset safe-haven sentiment will continue to suppress the market.
The US-Iran economic war pushes digital assets to the sanctions frontline, short-term safe-haven buying and long-term compliance shadows fiercely compete. BTC repeatedly battles around the $80,000 mark, ETH stuck at $2,500, OKB volatility expands. If Hormuz supply is cut off, soaring oil prices will worsen stagflation, putting the Fed in a dilemma; secondary sanctions declare crypto no longer a "lawless zone." The decisive factor—if the situation worsens, BTC surges, but regulatory headwinds will ultimately suppress. Short-term wide fluctuations, long-term accelerated reshuffling. $BTC
The opening was quite fragmented..
Coinbase premium was negative in the 15 minutes before and after the open.. turned positive after 9:45.. currently, overall positives are few. CVD is slightly trending upwards..
Today, the ETF should still see a small net inflow.. but it might not be able to break and hold above 80k.. possibly a rush or a wick below 80k...
Today's entry model was played very, very enthusiastically.... (Chart 3)
The color band below 80k has reappeared -- see the previous idea (Chart 4) August's Anomalies and This Week's Test
Bitcoin has risen 23% this month, aiming for the strongest August performance since 2017 — while historically, the median return for August is -7%, and September is one of the weakest months of the year. This seasonal divergence itself is an important signal: either the structural logic has been broken, or profit-taking is merely delayed rather than absent.
This week will provide the answer. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Wash's first speech will be the biggest variable — a dovish stance will continue to support a weak dollar and low yields rebound; a hawkish surprise could trigger large-scale profit-taking. Core PCE on Wednesday is expected to hold steady year-over-year at 3.3%, but if the month-over-month figure exceeds expectations, it will reignite the inflation narrative at the market's most "stretched" moment. Additionally, Q2 GDP is expected to be revised down from 2.1% to 1.5%, further confirming the slowdown in growth.
However, the market structure is healthier than it appears: Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to a two-month low while the price has risen 24%, driven by spot buying rather than leverage accumulation, reducing the risk of forced liquidations. This is the fundamental difference between this rebound and previous failed attempts.
Geopolitical and macro data are densely intertwined; momentum is strong, but the threshold has significantly risen. Bitcoin now needs to prove not whether it can rise, but whether it can hold its gains under this test. To be honest, I didn't expect this market move myself.
BTC has surged from the low of 57,000 at the beginning of July to nearly 80,000, rising almost 30% in 8 days. ETH was even more aggressive, soaring 30% in a week straight up to 2500.
It had been slowly declining before, I was almost falling asleep, but suddenly on August 19th it exploded, rising 24% in three days. A bunch of shorts got liquidated, with over a billion in short positions wiped out.
Later I checked and found that the main reason was the US Treasury suddenly announced an expansion of bond repurchases, flooding the market with cash. Plus, nearly 2 billion USD flowed into spot ETFs in a week, showing big money is really stepping in.
Although there was a pullback over the weekend, it bounced back on Monday. Now BTC is hovering around 79,000 and ETH near 2500. It feels different this time; the dip wasn’t deep and the buying pressure is solid.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 A Brief Analysis of OKB's Recent Upward Trend Logic
OKB has shown strong performance recently: over 40% increase this month, about 10-15% rise this week, and intraday it once surged near $120, currently hovering around $115. The underlying logic can be viewed in two layers.
1. Market Beta Dominance (Most Direct Short-Term Factor)
This wave mainly follows the overall market strength. BTC surged toward $80,000, US stock spot ETFs saw continuous large net inflows (about $1.9 billion last week, the strongest in nearly 10 months), combined with macro factors like US Treasury buybacks, the US dollar weakened, and risk assets broadly rose. Exchange platform tokens naturally have high beta characteristics; when trading volume expands (global 24h turnover clearly rises), OKB, as the core asset of the OKX ecosystem, sees demand pushed up accordingly. This is a typical "hot market, platform tokens move first" scenario.
2. Fundamental Support (Medium to Long-Term Logic)
• Scarcity is confirmed: By 2025, OKX will complete large-scale token burns and permanently lock the supply at 21 million tokens. Smart contracts will remove minting and manual burning functions, fully transforming it into a fixed supply asset, narratively comparable to BTC-style scarcity.
• Expansion of Use Cases: OKB is now the native Gas for X Layer (OKX's self-developed L2) and is also tied to Exchange OS (staking/usage required for deploying trading venues). The platform continues to add products—24/7 tokenized US stocks and ETFs, new markets, OKX Card stablecoin payments, etc.—directly boosting holding and usage demand.
• Compliance and Institutional Endorsement: Obtaining Dubai VARA VASP license, progress on Europe's MiCA, plus previous collaborations with institutions like ICE, have enhanced platform trustworthiness, indirectly benefiting the token.
In summary, the short-term rise is driven by market sentiment plus trading volume beta, while the medium to long-term is a resonance of "fixed supply + ecosystem implementation + compliance advancement." Platform tokens are always highly volatile; after rising, they tend to pull back, so position sizing and timing should be managed carefully. This is not investment advice, for reference only. $BTC and $ETH : Is history repeating itself? In 2022, $BTC dropped to $17.7K in June, then rebounded sharply, before testing lows near $15.8K again. $ETH followed a similar path. In 2026, $BTC again rebounded strongly from below $60K to around $80K, while $ETH rose back above $2.4K. But this cycle has a major difference: institutional demand returning via spot ETFs, with recent weekly inflows into Bitcoin nearing $2 billion and Ethereum close to $700 million. Is this a true cycle bottom, or juOKX Wallet is putting the X Layer's RWA liquidity incentives front and center this time: from August 24, 15:00 to September 7, 15:00 (UTC+8), providing liquidity to designated Uniswap pools on X Layer will share a $220,000 reward pool according to the rules. This is worth a separate discussion, not because the word "giving money" is enticing, but because it clearly states the direction X Layer has been pushing recently: RWA, stablecoins, and on-chain trading depth—all three need to be tied together. The official page clearly states that this time it covers 53 qualified Uniswap V3 pools, among which 50 are xStocks RWA-related pools, and the other 3 are BTC, ETH, and SOL pools. The reward pool consists of 70,000 USDC and 150,000 USDG, and the distribution method is not just about anyone clicking to claim; it depends on your LP position's share of all participants' fee income. Positions must be newly added and remain valid after the event starts, and ultimately it comes down to how much effective liquidity you actually provide. This is not the same gameplay as ordinary check-in airdrops. Many people see the reward pool and their first reaction is to calculate APY and rush in. But Uniswap V3 LPs are essentially not fixed deposits, especially when pairing RWA assets with stablecoins, where price range, trading activity, and one-sided exposure all have an impact QCP said this week's focus shifts to three major macro variables. My first reaction wasn't to guess which three, but to ask: what was that 20% last week? Only after the rise do they say to watch macro — is this trading ahead of time, or has it already been fully priced in?
The Ministry of Finance's repurchase doubling, ETF funds coming in, these are all events that have already happened, so it's fine to use them to explain the past week's performance. But then immediately shifting the focus to macro data that hasn't been released yet feels off to me. This is looking for reasons for the next market move, and the reasons are for things that haven't happened yet.
If macro really dictated direction, last week shouldn't have gone up so smoothly. Now bringing up macro feels like adding a pass after the rise.
I'll step back for now. I don't buy this explanation. Brothers, the bull is back! BTC touched the 80,000 mark. Is this rebound a reversal or just a buildup?
Brothers, the bull is back! In August, BTC rose from a low of $64,000 to a high of $79,400, with a single-week maximum increase of over 24%. The total liquidation of shorts across the network exceeded $2.7 billion, sweeping away much of the pessimism that had clouded the market in the first half of the year. The community is once again buzzing with talk of a "bull market restart." But amidst the excitement, the real money market must be examined for its essence: Is this wave truly the start of a trend reversal bull market, or just a corrective rebound after overselling? The 80,000 mark has been tested for a week without holding firm—does this mean the rise is stalling or is it a consolidation and shakeout? We use solid data to clarify the current real situation.
The core driving force behind this rise is a triple resonance of macro expectation recovery + ETF capital replenishment + short squeeze, not a market emerging out of nowhere. On the macro level, U.S. core inflation in July fell more than expected, pushing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in Q4 from 40% to 68%. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem, leading to a collective valuation recovery in risk assets. On the capital side, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in a single week, hitting a new high for the year and nearly 10 months. BlackRock’s single product contributed over 60% of this increase, with top institutions putting real money in to support the bottom. On the trading side, a large number of short positions accumulated near $60,000 were liquidated, triggering a chain reaction of forced buy orders that further amplified the upward momentum, creating a classic short squeeze scenario.
But to be honest: this is essentially a recovery rally, not a full-scale bull market with new capital flooding in. Looking at a longer timeline, since 2026, BTC spot ETFs have still seen a net outflow of about $2.9 billion. This week’s massive inflow looks more like a replenishment to cover the continuous outflows in the first half of the year, rather than a trend reversal driven by large-scale new capital entering. Moreover, funds are highly concentrated in top institutional products. Grayscale GBTC is still undergoing continuous redemptions. Essentially, this is a shift of existing chips from short-term investors to long-term institutions, not a broad-based industry-wide rally. Institutional funds are still in a tentative allocation phase, not yet fully all in.
The current inability to break through the $80,000 mark is mainly due to three layers of selling pressure stacking at the high level, creating precise suppression. The first layer is the concentrated release of historical trapped positions. The $78,000–$82,000 range is a dense chip zone formed at the end of 2025. Many retail investors bought at this level and got trapped. Now, as the price approaches, they release selling pressure, which is the most direct reason for the quick pullbacks near $79,000. The second layer is miners’ structural liquidation. After the price returned above $70,000, mining companies moved from loss to profit zones. The closer to $80,000, the thicker the marginal profit. Recently, miners’ daily transfers to exchanges have tripled compared to June lows, representing continuous and stable selling pressure. The third layer is existing funds distributing at highs. Previously, a whale address sold over 7,700 BTC in three days, precisely at the peak. Grayscale also steadily releases redemption pressure weekly, creating a turnover pattern between inflows and outflows.
Fortunately, the bottom support remains solid with no signs of deterioration. On-chain data shows that in the past two weeks, over 13,000 BTC have been net withdrawn from exchanges. Large holders and institutions continue moving coins to cold storage for locking. The proportion of chips controlled by long-term holders has reached a new high since December 2023, indicating strong stability of underlying chips and narrowing the downside from the supply side. The $75,000 level is the core cost zone for institutional accumulation this round. Every dip to this level sees clear buying support, making it a key short-term strength/weakness dividing line.
The core short-term variable is the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the month, which is also the debut of the new Fed Chair, Powell. Under the baseline scenario, a neutral and ambiguous speech will likely keep BTC oscillating between $75,000 and $81,000, digesting selling pressure and raising holding costs over 2-3 weeks. Under an optimistic scenario, a dovish signal hinting at a Q4 rate cut could help break through the $80,000 mark and test the $82,000–$83,000 chip gap zone. Under a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance could pull back to $72,000–$73,000, but deep drops are unlikely due to institutional bottom support.
In the medium term, if the Fed officially starts a rate cut cycle in September and ETFs maintain a weekly net inflow pace above $1 billion, Q4 could challenge the previous high near $88,000. If either condition is missing, the market will enter a wide-range consolidation. So brothers, the bull is truly warming up, but it’s not yet time for a full-blown rally. Hold your core positions firmly, accumulate in batches near $75,000 on dips, avoid blindly chasing highs or shorting lightly, and patiently wait for policy confirmation. Existing sell pressure influences future market liquidity
The reason this sell-off has attracted significant market attention is due to its stark contrast with the public statements made by related parties. Previously, the WLFI project associated with the Trump family had loudly announced plans to massively increase holdings of TRUMP tokens; however, the core team is currently showing continuous actions of offloading inventory into the market.
This contradictory combination of "publicly releasing positive claims of buying while quietly distributing chips on the market" greatly intensifies speculation among market funds about the issuer's true intentions. Since the market valuation of meme coins heavily depends on emotional consensus and the issuer's inventory management constraints, once the issuer initiates a continuous sell-off mode, it will inevitably cause a severe liquidity drain on the micro market.
The current core market contention focuses on the team's inventory of 3,837,000 tokens stored in the OKX account. If this nearly ten million dollar market value of chips is dumped entirely into the secondary market, it will impose a significant downward pressure on TRUMP's spot price and investor sentiment in the short term. The core conclusion of today's market is: **Risk appetite continues to diverge rather than weaken across the board.** Overnight, the US expanded secondary sanctions against Iran as a deterrent, but oil prices noticeably fell, and long-term US Treasury yields also slightly declined, which is generally favorable for risk assets; the real drag on the market was tech stocks, especially the chip sector, which saw significant reductions ahead of Nvidia's earnings report. Meanwhile, the US dollar rebounded from a three-month low, and BTC remains in the high range following its recent surge. Today's market focus shifts to US consumer confidence, new home sales, and more importantly this week, PCE, Nvidia's earnings, and Jackson Hole. 1. What happened overnight? 1. US stocks showed clear divergence: tech stocks fell, while the Dow rose against the trend. Facts: On August 24, US stock market close: Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26% to 53,417.16; S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 7,652.86; Nasdaq Composite fell 0.76% to 25,980.19. The tech sector was the main drag. Nvidia fell 2.9%, Micron fell 5.8%, Broadcom fell 2.6%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was under overall pressure. Meanwhile, the financial sector performed relatively well, with JPMorgan up 1.4% and Visa up 3%, helping the Dow maintain gains. Market reaction: This was not a broad risk asset sell-off but more like a deliberate reduction of exposure to tech and AI sectors. One reason is that Nvidia will report earnings this weekBTC and ETH rise, altcoins remain differentiated
$BTC reached $79.5K, $ETH exceeded $2.5K, but $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK remain weak. Capital continues to favor large-cap assets, while altcoins face liquidity shortages, weakened spot demand, and supply pressure on specific tokens. BTC and ETH ETFs attracted about $2.6 billion in weekly inflows, reinforcing preference for market leaders. The current situation shows capital is rotating selectively rather than a broad altcoin season.In the previous six articles, we covered the principles, technology, and trends of custody. But when it comes to practical operation, many readers are still most troubled by this question: Should I manage it myself or leave it to the exchange? In this article, we will set aside technical jargon and idealistic sentiments, and focus on a pragmatic judgment—what kind of people are suitable for custodial wallets? If you meet most of the following criteria, a custodial wallet is likely the better choice for you. First: Your asset amount is not large. This may sound counterintuitive—many people think "it doesn't matter if you have little money, you can put it anywhere." But from another perspective: Is it worth spending 5,000 yuan to buy a hardware wallet and spending a week studying private key management, firmware verification, and multi-signature for assets worth 50,000 yuan? Whether it's worth it is a mathematical question. Professional self-custody solutions have costs—hardware wallets cost several hundred to several thousand yuan, mnemonic steel plates cost tens to hundreds of yuan, plus the time cost of learning and the psychological burden during operation. If these costs exceed the proportion of your assets that you can accept, a custodial wallet is a more rational choice. Additionally, mainstream exchanges have certain protection mechanisms for retail investors' assets. For example, Binance's SAFU fund provides additional protection for users in extreme cases. Although it cannot cover all scenarios, it already serves as an important safety net for small and medium-sized funds. Second: You are not familiar with the technology. Be honest with yourself: Do you know what "firmware signature verification" means? Do you know how to distinguish a real wallet from a fake one? Do you carefully check the first and last few characters of the recipient address before each transfer? One detail is quite worth noting:
The trading volume surged to 123.93 billion, expanding 40.86% in 24 hours, but the market did not experience a true broad rally.
There are 123 assets rising and 263 falling, with the declines mainly concentrated between -2% and -4%.
This indicates that the current market is more like capital accelerating turnover rather than a full-scale long.
Many people see the surge in trading volume and their first reaction is "the market is about to take off." But I tend to be more cautious—volume expansion is good, but if most coins can't hold up, it means capital is still picking directions.
What’s truly worth watching next is not whether the trading volume can continue to hit new highs, but whether the number of declining assets can significantly shrink and whether strong coins can start to spread.
Volume is there, but the profit-making effect hasn’t kept up,
this kind of market is the easiest to trap people.
Watch first, don’t rush in. $BTC $XAU
First, take a look at this chart—
The expansion of U.S. debt has no necessary connection with the previous president's portrait. Whoever replaces him probably won't be able to fill the huge U.S. debt hole, let alone someone like Trump who actively digs it deeper!
In the past, the traditional textbook logic was:
Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; the higher the real interest rate on U.S. debt, the less worthwhile it is to hold gold, so gold prices fall;
When interest rates fall, gold prices rise.
Now the logic has changed:
When debt reaches a certain level,
the market is no longer just trading "interest rates",
but the credit risk of the dollar and U.S. debt.
———Central banks around the world increase gold purchases and reduce U.S. debt holdings.
Now, add four more words to this sentence:
———Central banks around the world increase gold purchases, increase Bitcoin holdings, and reduce U.S. debt holdings. #BTC fluctuates after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
Breaking down the driving forces behind this rally: After the short squeeze bonus fades, how much buying power remains in the market?
At the early stage of the rally, a large part of the upward momentum came from short squeeze pressure. Prices rose rapidly, causing a large number of short contracts to liquidate. The buy orders generated from these liquidations further pushed prices higher, creating a positive feedback loop. This short squeeze rally has strong explosive power, but it is a consumptive type of upward momentum. Once a large number of short positions are cleared from the market, the passive buying from liquidations disappears. For the rally to continue pushing to new highs, it must switch to incremental spot funds entering the market to take over. Currently, at the high level phase, more of the activity is contract leverage funds competing with each other, while spot fund inflows have noticeably weakened. Without continuous inflows of spot funds, relying solely on contract leverage to drive the rally will significantly reduce the quality of the upward movement and increase volatility.The U.S. Treasury Department has recently indeed sent a signal worth noting: it is considering using approximately $950 billion from the Treasury General Account (TGA) to provide funding support for further expanding U.S. Treasury repurchase operations. At the same time, the Treasury has already doubled the scale of some Treasury repurchase operations compared to previous levels. If large-scale use of TGA funds for Treasury repurchases continues, it could improve liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market, ease pressure on long-term yields, and provide certain macro liquidity benefits to risk assets such as gold, stocks, and BTC. What is truly noteworthy is that the U.S. Treasury is taking a more proactive approach in managing the Treasury market and financial liquidity. A signal that is easy to overlook but closely related to this round of AI narrative: Meta is launching a consumer-facing AI assistant, with premium subscriptions reportedly costing up to $199.99 per month; almost simultaneously, Nvidia is negotiating to invest in Perplexity, aiming for a valuation of 30 billion. To translate—after burning money for years, AI giants are starting to figure out how to monetize their investments and deliver results. This main storyline is now driving the sentiment across the entire risk market, and $BTC is no exception. So Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday is the real switch for this week: the focus isn't on EPS but whether the AI capex story can still hold up. Don't just stare at the coin's K-line; look up to see where the bigger trend is heading. The most important lesson I learned from the last cycle is not to go against the cycle. There is no super cycle, and don't blindly trust the big players; every cycle sees a few big players sacrificed. Reviewing the past few days, the current bear market basically follows the same pattern as the last bear market. Last cycle (May 2022): 30,000 USD was regarded as the iron bottom of the super cycle at that time because it was the starting point after the May 19, 2021 crash and also the support of the weekly MA120. What left a deep impression was that when it broke below 30,000 USD, the panic index was already below 10, and a large amount of bottom-fishing capital believed the price couldn't fall further or that a rebound was due. Current cycle (February 2026): 80,000 USD, once a strong support, has now become a strong resistance at the weekly MA120 level. 80,000 USD is also the cost price for Bitcoin mining companies. The current 76,000 USD is like the brief struggle after breaking below 30,000 USD in the last cycle. The market is very likely to have another move that completely shatters confidence, such as touching the previous cycle's peak of 69,000 USD. If it breaks below 70,000 USD, it will trigger a larger scale of stop-loss and liquidation orders, which might surpass the huge volume bar in November 2025. Without extreme panic, rebounds are often just bull traps. Never let emotions mislead you during the cycle. In extreme trending markets, sentiment indicators can be distorted. A panic index of 10 means retail investors are already desperate, but the main forces might still be using this despair for one last deep squat. Trend lines are more direct than any indicator, justA reminder: this rally from 60,000 to 78,000 is fueled by fiscal liquidity, not a fundamental reversal. On the Besent side, they are focusing on the general fiscal account approaching 1 trillion USD, with the US Treasury repo operation window locked on September 9 — the market is trading ahead on the expectation of "liquidity injection." I don't oppose riding the liquidity wave, but don't mistake a liquidity-driven rally as a reason to go all-in: where the money comes from and when it will be withdrawn is far more important than how the candlesticks look. At the table, you need to first figure out whose money is backing the pot to know if this hand is worth playing. At $BTC's current position, ask yourself if you're holding a trend or just emotions. AI data centers are driving the NAND flash memory boom, with stock prices having surged sharply earlier and now entering a high-level digestion phase, showing significantly increased volatility.
In the short term, stock prices are in a profit-taking phase; although large long-term contract orders support performance, the market has already priced in optimistic expectations, making positive news easy to realize and then decline.
Holding key support levels still offers opportunities for rebound speculation; once a decisive breakdown occurs, a deeper pullback will begin.
From a mid- to long-term perspective, the biggest risk is the release of new production capacity in 2027-2028. Storage is a strongly cyclical industry, and the boom will not last forever.
💡 Trading reminder
Do not chase highs; heavy speculative positions are strictly prohibited. Manage position sizes carefully, set stop losses, and closely monitor flash memory prices and capital expenditure changes of major manufacturers. Spot gold has again touched 4670, continuously hitting historical highs, and the world's largest gold ETF continued to increase its holdings yesterday. On one side, devaluation trades and safe-haven funds are pouring into gold, while on the other side, $BTC remains in a high-level overbought consolidation, not keeping up with this wave. People who constantly talk about "digital gold" should think: when it really comes to fiat currency devaluation and a bunch of geopolitical risks, the money fleeing to safe assets first goes into gold, not crypto. This is not to say BTC is no good, but a reminder not to mix the two logics—this wave of rising crypto prices is driven by liquidity and short squeezes, not by safe-haven funds coming in to support the bottom. Understanding what is driving it is how you roughly know when it might stop.This Friday (August 28), Kevin Walsh's "debut" as the new Federal Reserve Chair at Jackson Hole is indeed the biggest variable in the current global capital markets. Based on historical patterns and Walsh's own policy stance, this meeting will almost certainly trigger intense volatility. But whether it marks the "start of a bull market" or a "plunge" depends not on the meeting itself, but on Walsh's statements regarding the "inflation targeting framework." #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Walsh's "hawkish tone" is the greatest risk (trigger for a plunge): Walsh is a typical "inflation hawk" who has strongly criticized the aftermath of QE (quantitative easing). If he emphasizes on Friday that "a recession must be used to cool inflation" or mentions "raising the long-term interest rate center," the market will directly price in continued tightening. Considering that current U.S. stock valuations remain at historically high levels, this is highly likely to trigger a "Walsh plunge," with tech growth stocks hit first.
The only possible $BTC "bull market start" signal is very unlikely: Unless Walsh unexpectedly pivots, explicitly acknowledges that "real interest rates are too high and harming the economy," and releases strong forward guidance for "preventive rate cuts" or "ending quantitative tightening (QT)." But this contradicts his past stance and is unlikely; if it happens, the dollar will plummet, gold and emerging markets will surge, and the third wave of the bull market will begin.
The true meaning of historical experience: Jackson Hole is scary because the market is betting on "expectation gaps." Currently, the market prices Walsh as "neutral to hawkish," so as long as his wording is not harsher than the market's worst expectations (such as implying rate hikes), the decline is controllable The recent market rhythm is actually quite intriguing. $BTC and $ETH are consolidating at high levels, neither surging further nor immediately turning downward. Some see this as a sign of weakening momentum, but another interpretation is that this is more like a deliberate "bull trap" posture, gradually lowering the guard of hesitant participants. From the position structure perspective, when the price is around 64,000, the short positions are most concentrated, and the general consensus is that the price can't rise further. However, as the price gradually approaches 80,000, the bullish sentiment becomes the strongest. This stark contrast often indicates that market sentiment is always a step behind, and the real winners are always the few who move ahead of the sentiment. A detail worth noting is the smart money data for BNB. Since the price entered the consolidation range, the long positions have consistently been more than three times the short positions. What does this indicate? It shows that beneath the surface of volatility, there is capital patiently accumulating directional positions rather than being swayed by short-term ups and downs. This kind of structural bias often explains more than one or two candlesticks. Many times, we tend to attribute price movements to technical patterns or sudden news, but what truly determines the outcome is often the distribution of positions and the sentiment of the crowd. Avoid crowded places; when the boat is heavy, it sinks faster. This principle has almost become an iron rule in the crypto market. When everyone crowds on one side, the market's balance is more likely to tilt in the opposite direction. Currently, $SOL's performance is also worth watching; it has not followed After Bitcoin rapidly surged to around $78,800, it pulled back to oscillate in the $77,000 range, overall maintaining a high-level operation. This consolidation after the spike has not disrupted the recent strong momentum; it is more of the market digesting previous gains. From the capital flow perspective, last week’s total ETF net inflow was about $2.6 billion, with Bitcoin contributing $1.9 billion and Ethereum also recording $697 million, marking the strongest weekly inflow since October last year. Institutions have been continuously absorbing above $77,000, which provides solid support for market confidence. The rhythm of this rally has actually shown some subtle changes. Early on, it was mainly driven by spot purchases, but as prices rose, some short positions began to be passively covered, creating a resonance between bullish and bearish forces. In other words, this rally is no longer a pure short squeeze but is gradually transitioning toward trend recovery. The price entering a high-level sideways consolidation after a sharp rise is a normal process of the market shifting from a one-sided sentiment to a multi-directional battle, and should not be over-interpreted as a top signal. Currently, the $77,000 level is a key battleground between buyers and sellers. If the price can hold here, the upward structure remains intact; however, a decisive break below $75,000 would imply a deeper short-term correction than expected, requiring a reassessment of the rhythm. At present, the market tends to repeatedly rotate at high levels rather than immediately choosing a direction. The core variable going forward remains whether ETF funds can continue to absorb high-level profit-taking. As long as incremental funds maintain stable inflows, the market has the capacity to sustain the short squeeze action #BTC fluctuates after a surge, with continuous inflows into ETFs
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
Don't just focus on the crypto market candlesticks; the US dollar and US Treasury yields will limit Bitcoin's upside ceiling. Bitcoin is a highly elastic global risk asset, and its movement cannot escape the constraints of the macro environment. When real US Treasury yields rise and the US dollar index strengthens, global risk appetite cools down, and capital prefers to flow into safe-haven assets. Even if the cryptocurrency candlestick patterns look good, the upward space will be suppressed. Conversely, when Treasury yields fall and the dollar weakens, the market liquidity environment loosens, which is more favorable for risk assets to continue rising. Macro indicators may not determine intraday price fluctuations but will set the upper limit and duration of a market cycle. When reviewing Bitcoin's market trends, it is essential to simultaneously monitor the movements of the US dollar and US Treasuries. If you only look at crypto charts behind closed doors, it is easy to overlook potential risks coming from external markets.If BTC really has passed the bottom area, then it will no longer be the sole core asset in the future.
This week, BTC's highest price reached around 80,000. If this round's 57,800 is truly the bottom, the drop from the peak is about 54%. If it reverses from now on, the next cycle likely won't see much growth. Even if it reaches 150,000, that's basically just a 2x return. I don't really believe there will be a 5x return in 2-3 years.
My personal thought is, if BTC really behaves like this this round, expectations for BTC need to be significantly lowered. It might become more like a large-cap asset similar to a crypto index.
If that's the case, then more attention should be paid to other assets. BTC might no longer be one of the high-growth assets, and this is what I need to start preparing for.
The above is just one possibility. I don't know if it will become reality, but we need to be prepared for it.
I personally did not get on board during this rise because my system did not signal me to buy. Since I also have a BTC bottom-fishing panel, my panel has been indicating a slightly undervalued position. Neither time, drop percentage, nor data triggered my system.
My system's strategy is to start buying when the panel score exceeds 60, but it only reached 59 at its highest. So far, no buy signal has been triggered.
Also, my judgment on the ma120 is that only a breakout after a long sideways movement in the bottom area or a breakdown after sideways movement in the top area can be considered a reference strategy.
I initially wondered why I didn't buy when ma120 broke out, but my current answer is that precisely because I followed my own strategy, I didn't buy.
However, I really didn't consider the possibility of a direct bull market at this time, which is an area where my strategy can improve.
The reason I set 60 points as the buy threshold is not arbitrary. Based on the last cycle, it would have been around 20,000 to start buying.
Although I do feel a bit afraid of missing out, I rationally believe that based on the data, there is still a chance my system's alert will be triggered. It's just that this time I didn't expect a direct surge.
Currently, I think there are roughly a few possible scenarios:
1: This time is a true reversal.
2: This time is a bear market rebound.
3: A completely unexpected market breaking the 4-year cycle, turning into a model similar to the US stock market.
From the perspective of time, data, and cycle, it doesn't really look like a reversal now, but from the current facts and technicals, it does look like a reversal. This is the contradictory part.
To be honest, I haven't figured out a specific strategy yet, but the general direction is to prepare countermeasures for various situations and always assume I might be wrong, because the market is always right. Being prepared with countermeasures is the most important.I strongly agree with Brother Murphy's on-chain analysis, which is also similar to my previous forecast for Bitcoin's future trend.
Combining the on-chain chip distribution with the current market situation, let me share why I also expect a healthy correction wave of $68,000–$70,000 next:
1️⃣ Underlying chips loosen, upward momentum slows down
The largest chip peak at $63,000 dropped from 1.22 million to 985,000, indicating that profit-taking from low-level accumulation has begun to exit. As the rule goes: "Once chips loosen, prices often consolidate or even correct," which is a sign of increasing resistance to the rise.
2️⃣ Intense turnover at high levels, pressure on the receiving funds
When it surged to $77,000–$78,000, the market triggered the strongest profit-taking in nearly 6 months. Although 320,000 BTC were absorbed between $76,000–$77,000 within just 3 days and the price temporarily held, large-scale turnover at high levels inevitably requires time to digest the volatility.
3️⃣ "Double anchor structure" established, the middle area becomes a natural gravity zone
Once $76,000–$77,000 is firmly established as a new upper chip concentration peak, together with the lower $62,000–$63,000, it forms a classic "double anchor structure." According to chip game theory, after the high-level turnover is completed, the price is highly likely to seek a pullback support and liquidity rebalancing around the structure's central axis — the $68,000–$70,000 area.
💡 Summary:
Profit-taking at high levels does not mean the bull market has peaked, but the market needs a washout and consolidation toward the central axis. Patiently wait for the turnover results at $76k–$77k; if it pulls back to $68k–$70k, it is actually an excellent structural opportunity to add positions.The name of this ZEC rally is jokingly called "Big Zero Coin" in the Chinese community, which sounds somewhat casual, but its market performance is anything but ambiguous. Starting around 550, it surged all the way above 880, nearly doubling in a short time, and its market cap ranking also pushed into the top ten. Such a rise would attract attention in any sector, especially since it belongs to the relatively niche privacy coin track. If we extend the timeline a bit, we find that similar scripts are not unfamiliar. In the last cycle, XRP also led the market for a period, surging with great momentum before experiencing a significant pullback. History does not simply repeat itself, but the rhythm of market sentiment often has a similar pulse. ZEC's current position happens to be at an observation window of "whether it can continue to hit new highs." Today's market broke through the previous high again, indicating that the bullish momentum has not completely faded. But one detail worth noting is that if this breakout momentum cannot continue tomorrow, short-term funds may choose to take profits, and the price could enter a consolidation phase. This judgment is not aggressive but more based on a routine deduction of momentum decay—no coin can maintain a one-sided strong trend forever, even the hottest targets need to catch their breath. From a fundamental perspective, this ZEC rally is not an isolated event. The overall warming of the privacy sector, combined with the market's renewed focus on compliance and anonymity needs, has given it extra support. But it should also be noted that the top ten market cap position is still... Just when you thought the tech stock sell-off would drag down the entire risk asset market as usual, $BTC and $GLD closed higher at the same time. The VIX Panic Index is rising, but funds are not leaving, but are redrawing safety boundaries. Outline - Where the Money Went Away 🔍: Cross-Asset Rotation - 📈 BTC's Standalone Market: Institutions Are Still Buying - ⚠️ The Trap Within Volume Tokens: Who Is Being Abandoned - 🧭 Macro Undercover: Interest Rates, Geopolitics, and Banking Licenses Today's Snapshot $BTC 78,922, +1.76% $ETH 2,483, +1.06% $QQQ -1.00%, $SPY -0.29%, Dow 53,417.16, +0.26% $DXY 0.00%, $GLD +0.79% $ IBIT +2.20% VIX 15.84, +4.62% $USO 132.21, -1.80% 1. Where the 🔍 money went Tech stocks fell, but the market did not see risk-off sell-offs; instead, there was a split flow of funds. $QQQ fell 1.00%, $SPY fell 0.29%, but $BTC rose 1.76%, $ETH rose 1.06%, and $GLD rose 0.79%. The US Dollar Index $DXY remained unchanged, with the VIX at only +4.62%, indicating that this is not a full-blown panic, but rather a withdrawal of funds from high-valuation tech stocks toward alternative assets like gold and crypto. $IBIT（B$BTC & $ETH: Why Has the Rally Avoided a Major Correction?
The rally is supported by strong spot ETF demand, renewed institutional buying, and heavy short liquidations. U.S. spot $BTC ETFs attracted $1.92B last week, while $ETH ETFs added $697M.
Short covering amplified the move, while improved liquidity, Treasury buybacks, and a friendlier regulatory outlook strengthened risk appetite.
With spot demand absorbing selling pressure, pullbacks have remained shallow. 79999.8! Just $0.2 short of 80,000, is the market maker teasing me?
Brothers, last night's market was truly a rare sight.
$BTC surged all the way, reaching a high of 79999.8 USD—just 0.2 away from 80,000. Just this 0.2 short, is the market maker deliberately leaving suspense like a TV series?
🎯 Why just 0.2 short?
First, 80,000 is a “sell wall.” According to traders' analysis, about $100 million worth of sell orders are stacked near 80,000, making it the largest selling pressure zone currently. Additionally, Binance has about $31.98 million in sell orders hanging around 79,945 USD. A large amount of capital has pre-placed take-profit orders at this psychological threshold, forming a natural barrier.
Second, a double squeeze from options and trapped positions. 80,000 is not only a psychological watershed highly watched by global investors but also concentrates a large number of bullish options positions and historical trapped positions needing to break even. When the price hits this level, profit-taking and break-even selling flood out simultaneously.
Third, short squeeze fuel is exhausted. Previously, over $3 billion in shorts have been liquidated, and the forced buying “passive demand” is fading. Next, it will rely on real spot demand to take over.
🚀 Can it break 80,000?
It can, but with conditions.
The market generally believes that once a breakout above 80,000 is confirmed, the next target range will open to 85,000–90,000 USD. Some analysts even predict closing near 80,000 in 2026 and breaking 120,000 next year.
But several conditions must be met:
First, ETF funds must continue to flow in. Last week, ETF net inflow was about $1.9 billion, the real support for this rally. But if inflows slow, the rally may stall.
Second, Coinbase premium must turn positive. Currently, US spot demand remains weak; this rally is largely driven by leverage rather than spot buying.
Third, Friday’s Jackson Hole meeting is a key catalyst. This is the first appearance of Powell as the new Fed Chair—if dovish, it could push 80,000 and beyond; if hawkish, it might crash back to 73,000. Since 2022, BTC has always experienced sharp volatility around this meeting, without exception.
⚠️ Where are the risks?
Above 82,000, about $4 billion in short liquidity is stacked. If 80,000 breaks strongly, it could trigger a new wave of short squeezes, possibly pushing directly to 82,700. But if 80,000 fails to hold, there is almost no decent support before 71,000, and the drop could be very fast.
In summary: 80,000 is a psychological barrier; holding it means 82K–87K, failing means a major correction.
💎 My view
The number 79999.8 will be etched in many people’s memories. The market maker left the suspense until the last moment; the real answer may come after Friday’s Jackson Hole meeting.
Before then, chasing highs is not cost-effective. Better to wait and see—will 80,000 turn from resistance into support, or be completely rejected?
Discuss in the comments: Do you think it will break 80,000 this week?
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The above content is only a market information summary and personal opinion sharing, not any investment advice. Trading involves risks; decisions should be made cautiously.$BTC is currently priced at about $78,900, up over 22% for the week, showing a strong rebound.
Institutional capital inflow is the main driver: the US spot ETF recorded the strongest weekly inflow in nearly 10 months (about $1.9 billion), combined with the US Treasury expanding bond repurchases to suppress yields, a weakening dollar, and short squeeze pressure, BTC has strongly broken through the $60-67k range, approaching the $80k psychological level. BTC dominance has risen to about 59%, highly correlated with gold, intensifying the narrative of scarce assets.
Technically, the bullish structure remains intact (above key moving averages), but the daily RSI is overbought (around 78-82), with sentiment entering greed/extreme greed zones, posing short-term correction risks. Key support is at $75-76k, resistance at $79.5-80.8k.
Next week’s Jackson Hole Fed speech (August 28) is an important catalyst.
In short: institutional inflows plus macro tailwinds ignite the rebound, approaching 80k but with clear overbought signals; the recommendation is to wait and watch, not chase the highs.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BTC: Triple Selling Pressure Approaches the 80,000 Threshold, Rebound Enters the Most Testing Deep Waters of Patience
In August, BTC staged a desperate counterattack, surging from a low of $64,000 to a high of $79,400, with a weekly gain exceeding 24%. The total short liquidations across the network surpassed $2.7 billion, setting the highest single-day liquidation record since 2021. As of August 25, BTC was oscillating narrowly around $78,900, just a step away from the $80,000 integer mark. Behind this seemingly smooth rise, the market is entering the most testing deep waters of patience—triple selling pressure from historical trapped positions, miner sell-offs, and institutional unwind is stacking near the $80,000 level, while the short squeeze momentum that drove the rally has been fully exhausted. The next phase will truly test the quality of the capital.
The first layer of selling pressure comes from the concentrated unwinding of historical trapped positions. The $78,000–$82,000 range is a dense chip zone formed at the end of 2025 and was previously recognized by the market as the "policy bottom" expectation area. A large amount of retail capital entered here to bottom-fish but then got deeply trapped due to policy shifts. Glassnode data shows that the average holding cost for US spot BTC ETF holders is about $82,465, and BlackRock's IBIT holders have an even higher cost of $82,206. This means the current price level is exactly the critical point for large-scale trapped positions to unwind; the closer the price gets to $80,000, the more concentrated the unwinding pressure becomes. This is the core reason why every rally near $79,000 recently has quickly pulled back.
The second layer of selling pressure comes from miners' structural liquidation. After the price rose above $70,000, mining companies moved from loss to profit zones, significantly increasing their motivation to cash out. Data shows that the weighted average cash cost of listed mining companies falls between $76,000 and $80,000. The closer the price is to $80,000, the thicker the miners' marginal profits, and the larger the scale of transfers to exchanges for liquidation. Unlike retail investors' emotional trades, miner selling pressure is a long-term, stable structural sell-off that continuously releases during the rally, precisely suppressing the price's upward slope. During this rebound, miners' daily transfer volume to exchanges has tripled compared to the June low, becoming the most stable short force.
The third layer of selling pressure comes from early institutional funds distributing at highs. During this rebound, while leading ETF funds concentrated their entries, existing institutions have been cashing out at highs. In the past three days, a whale address has cumulatively sold over 7,700 BTC, precisely hitting the $79,000 level; Grayscale's GBTC continues to redeem, steadily releasing hundreds of millions of dollars in selling pressure weekly. This creates a turnover pattern of "new institutions building positions at lows to support the market, old institutions distributing at highs to take profits," which also determines that BTC is unlikely to experience a one-sided violent surge but will more likely digest selling pressure gradually through oscillating upward movement.
Fortunately, the capital support remains solid, providing a safety cushion for the market. On August 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $307 million, with BlackRock's IBIT single product contributing $239.3 million, accounting for over 70%. The logic of leading institutions concentrating their positions remains unchanged. On a weekly basis, net inflows reached $1.92 billion, the highest single-week record since October 2025, showing strong institutional capital support. On-chain data also shows that long-term holders control 83% of BTC chips, the highest proportion since December 2023, indicating very stable underlying chips.
The core short-term variable is the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting from August 27 to 29. Under the baseline scenario, the new Fed Chair Wash maintains a "data-dependent, no forward guidance" communication strategy, and BTC will likely continue to oscillate and turnover between $75,000 and $81,000, taking 2-3 weeks to digest the triple selling pressure and steadily raise the market's average holding cost. Under an optimistic scenario, a dovish signal hinting at rate cuts in Q4 could help BTC break through the $80,000 threshold with capital relay, reaching the $82,000–$83,000 chip gap zone. Under a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance might trigger a pullback to $72,000–$73,000, but deep drops are unlikely due to institutional base support.
From a mid-term perspective, if the Fed officially starts a rate-cut cycle in September and ETFs maintain weekly net inflows above $1 billion, the triple selling pressure will gradually be digested amid oscillations, and BTC is expected to challenge the previous high of $88,000 in Q4. Overall, BTC is currently in the middle stage of valuation repair, entering a deep zone of concentrated selling pressure in the short term, making oscillations inevitable, but the mid-term logic of oscillating upward remains intact. The recommended strategy is a mid-term approach: hold base positions, accumulate in batches near $75,000 on pullbacks, avoid blindly chasing highs or shorting lightly, and patiently wait for direction confirmation after turnover is complete. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
This week, the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting officially begins, and Warsh's public debut this time will be a key variable affecting the entire market.
After the July FOMC meeting, Warsh did not release a clear policy direction, and the market's doubts about the Fed's subsequent path have not dissipated. The market most wants to get an answer from this speech: on which core indicators does the Fed base its adjustments to the subsequent interest rate trajectory. If the statement remains vague, the entire market will continue to fluctuate amid uncertainty about rate hike expectations.
This week will also see the release of a batch of key economic indicators such as the PCE price index, GDP revision data, and durable goods orders, used to verify the stickiness of inflation. The market will not be determined solely by the speech; data and officials' remarks will resonate together, jointly influencing risk asset pricing.
On the chart, $BTC has repeatedly hit resistance and fallen back in the 79500‑80000 range, currently fluctuating around 77500. The price has already reflected reality: above the 80,000 mark, incremental chasing funds have already run out of steam.
Two scenarios can be simply deduced: if Warsh's overall tone leans hawkish, then around 80,000 is very likely to become a phase high for this round of the market, with a pullback target of 74000‑75000; if a more dovish signal is released, then after breaking through 80,000, the upside space will be fully opened.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 The deadliest illusion in a bull market is not a K-line breakdown, but the collective cerebral climax of "this time the logic is flawless."
When liquidity floods the market and prices defy gravity, the market spontaneously generates countless sophisticated narratives—metaverse new paradigms, Web3 value internet, zero-knowledge proofs reconstructing trust. Each argument is so self-consistent it’s suffocating, as if the technological shackles of the old era have been completely shattered. But history repeatedly proves: bubbles never burst amid doubt, only quietly peak amid unanimous conviction.
The faith in BTC has transformed from the romantic imagination of "digital gold" into cold numbers on sovereign fund balance sheets. Its ultimate moat is not technology, but the "compliant options" in the world’s largest liquidity pool—this is a double-edged gift. ETH’s crossroads lie in that the more successful the Rollup-centric roadmap is, the more diminished the mainnet’s presence as a settlement layer becomes. SOL’s do-or-die battle is whether Firedancer can turn theoretical maximum throughput into hard metrics in real-world scenarios, rather than another testnet show mocked for congestion. If it cannot support real-world order books and high-frequency demands, its high speed will ultimately be just a roller coaster in an amusement park.
My portfolio has only one iron rule: when the industry enters a glacial period and everyone is questioning roadmaps and mocking milestones, does this ecosystem still answer everything with code? Only survivors who have endured the deep bear market of 2018 and the crash season of 2022 are qualified to discuss the coordinates for the next decade. I've also held this kind of position — all indicators say it should drop, yet it just stays flat 🧊
Holding a short position until now, I can understand your current state — all indicators say it should fall, RSI oscillates between 78-86 in the overbought zone, the fear and greed index is at 79, just one point shy of extreme greed, the long-short ratio is 4:1, BNB whales have unrealized profits of $120 million, and there are four times more shorts than longs. The logic and reasons for the drop you want are all readily available; you could even say the market has given enough "time to correct" signals, but the price still remains high, like a mountain unmoved by any reason.
Why won't it drop?
Because the pricing power is currently in the hands of the bulls, and indicators are lagging. An overbought RSI doesn't necessarily mean a drop; it can stay overbought for a long time — at the end of 2020, BTC's RSI stayed above 80 for several consecutive weeks, during which the price rose from 20,000 to 40,000. The fear and greed index staying above 75 often lasts longer than most expect. In a bull market, FOMO is not a risk, it's fuel. A long-short ratio dominated by shorts is often proven wrong in trending markets — the more shorts, the more rocket fuel.
Technically, the answer has already been given: as long as EMA30 isn't broken, the trend hasn't changed.
Since last week's rebound, BTC has been walking above EMA30. As long as this line holds, the current sideways movement is a consolidation, not a top. The correction you're waiting for will most likely come, but not now. The real top doesn't appear during sideways consolidation at a high level; it appears when everyone thinks "this time it really broke out," then volume surges and reverses.
If you're reluctant to close your short stop loss now and are waiting for a correction to reduce losses or make a profit — then wait.
But while waiting, you need to think clearly about one thing: if this correction really comes, where will it likely pull back to? EMA30 is roughly in the 68,000-70,000 range, which is also the range Jiang Zhuoer mentioned: "If it falls back to 67,000-72,000, I will buy all in." If your short stop loss space can cover this range, you can hold on a bit longer; if not, the current sideways movement might just be slowing your losses, not helping you break even.
Don't fight the structure, don't fight the trend. Instead of holding shorts and repeatedly doubting your judgment, wait for the structure to give you an answer — EMA30 breaks, or price surges with volume again. Until then, the trend is on the bulls' side.
#BTC #ETH #shorting #tradingpsychology $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 When semiconductors crash and $BTC surges to 80,000, what exactly is the market trading?
Tuesday's market sent a split signal to everyone: Bitcoin hit $80,000 again after 101 days, soaring nearly 30% in a week; meanwhile, Nvidia fell 3%, $MU dropped 5.8%, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.76%.
The same pool of capital, the same macro environment, yet crypto assets and tech stocks moved in completely opposite directions.
This situation itself is worth pausing to consider.
The direct trigger for this round of movement is geopolitical. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of the "Economic Pariah Action," further cutting off Iran from the global financial system. The U.S.-Iran conflict has lasted nearly six months, the Strait of Hormuz remains not fully reopened, and nuclear deal negotiations are deadlocked. The most immediate consequence of escalating sanctions is a tightening of crude oil supply expectations, potentially pushing oil prices higher again, adding uncertainty to inflation and thus affecting the Fed's rate cut path.
Interestingly, the market gave two completely different price reactions to the same news: Bitcoin rose, semiconductors fell.
Optimists will tell you that the more the U.S. dollar-dominated financial sanctions system expands, the stronger the demand from non-dollar economies for alternative stores of value and settlement tools becomes. Bitcoin's "de-sovereign" narrative gains unprecedented support under this logic. Last week's $2.6 billion ETF inflow seems to confirm this — institutions are viewing Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge.
But if you truly believe this logic, the next question is: if rising oil prices push inflation expectations back up and U.S. Treasury yields rebound, can Bitcoin still hold up on the "digital gold" story? Bitcoin's rise over the past week largely relied on interest rate declines driven by U.S. Treasury repurchases. Once this external condition reverses, the foundation supporting the $80,000 level will weaken. More directly, Bitcoin has yet to be tested in any real stagflation environment.
Another detail worth noting: after reaching $80,000, Bitcoin quickly retreated to $77,898, with a 24-hour gain narrowing to 1.25%. Selling pressure at the 80,000 mark is real, and trading volume did not significantly increase. This price action indicates a lack of consensus on the breakout, with market participants still divided at the current price level. Whether last week's $2.6 billion ETF inflow continued in the first two trading days of this week remains unverified. If inflows slow down, combined with geopolitical risk aversion, $80,000 may only be a short-term peak rather than the start of a trend breakout.
A deeper contradiction lies in the fact that institutional signals are not unified. BlackRock and Morgan Stanley increased positions against the trend in Q2, while Harvard and Citi retreated. One side is bottom-fishing, the other is reducing holdings; even professional institutions differ greatly in pricing the same asset. This shows the market currently lacks a widely accepted valuation anchor. Bitcoin's rise reflects more the capture of liquidity premium than the establishment of a fundamental narrative.
So the core question now is not "Can Bitcoin reach 100,000?" but "What exactly is the current price pricing in?"
If it prices in geopolitical hedging and dollar substitution, this rally's logic is long-term; if it only prices in short-term liquidity overflow from U.S. Treasury repurchases, it may just be an arbitrage within a macro window.
How long will U.S.-Iran sanctions last? Will oil prices push inflation higher again? Can ETF inflows be sustained? Can Bitcoin complete turnover and volume breakout near 80,000?
The answers to these three questions will determine the nature of this rebound. And the nature of this rebound will decide whether Bitcoin becomes a new anchor in global asset allocation over the next six months or just another bubble fueled by liquidity excess.
What’s your take? What exactly is the market pricing in?
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $ETH BTC surged close to $80,000 in this wave, but open interest actually dropped to a two-month low.
This signal isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Price is rising while contract positions are decreasing, indicating that a large number of shorts have already been cleared out, and the market hasn't immediately piled on a large batch of high-leverage longs. Compared to "the higher the price rises, the more leverage stacks up," the current structure is actually much cleaner.
But on the other hand, it's also clear: the fuel for the short squeeze has been largely burned.
If BTC wants to keep pushing higher, it can't rely solely on short liquidations to drive the price; it depends on whether spot and ETF funds can continue to support it.
What’s more important than watching liquidations next is to see if the price can continue to strengthen in sync when open interest starts rising again. $BTC Many people are curious why Trump suddenly became the "number one promoter" of Bitcoin $BTC. Actually, there's a big game behind this, and the answer lies entirely in the bond market.
Simply put, the U.S. urgently needs to find buyers for its massive debt, and cryptocurrency is their new tool.
Think about it: when interest rates rise in Japan, the money that used to buy U.S. bonds flows back, reducing buyers of U.S. bonds, and interest rates are about to become uncontrollable. What to do? The U.S. government steps in directly, not only expanding bond repurchases but also preparing to use cash from the treasury to inject liquidity.
The most critical step comes next: who will buy these short-term debts? The answer is stablecoin companies. Because by law, for every 1 dollar of stablecoin issued, they must buy 1 dollar of U.S. Treasury bonds. In other words, the hotter the crypto market, the more stablecoins are issued, and the easier it is to sell U.S. Treasury bonds.
This forms a perfect closed loop: the government floods the market to save the bond market, the crypto market rises accordingly; the more crypto rises, the easier it is for the U.S. to borrow.
So, Trump's strong support for Bitcoin is not about faith but about maintaining the dollar's hegemony and solving the U.S. debt crisis. When confidence in U.S. debt wanes, Bitcoin $BTC becomes the "digital gold" the U.S. uses to hedge risk. Understanding this logic reveals just how deep the waters are behind this market trend!