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#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
As of September 4, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has risen to 18.17, reaching a new high since January this year, meaning 1 Bitcoin can now be exchanged for just over 18 ounces of gold. Bitcoin surged more than 5% that day, briefly breaking through $82,000, while spot gold also briefly surpassed the $4,500 mark. Both assets rose simultaneously, with investors buying both to hedge against currency depreciation risk.
The August CPI data on September 11 is the biggest variable: Waller has clearly stated that his September rate decision stance will entirely depend on the August inflation data. If the CPI exceeds expectations and heats up, renewed rate hike expectations could simultaneously pressure both Bitcoin and gold. CRYPTO IS MOVING FAST BULL MARKET CONFIRMED?
$BTC has pushed above $81K and briefly tested $82K, while $ETH reclaimed $2.5K and $SOL moved back above $104.
The strength is real, but the move has been fast. Momentum is improving, yet short-term pullbacks and profit-taking can still appear.
For now, I’m bullish on the momentum but I’d rather see the market hold these higher levels before calling it a confirmed bull run.
No FOMO. Let price confirm the trend.
#DailyOrbit $DEGEN 1H SHORT
Entry: 0.001120–0.001160
TP1: 0.001068
TP2: 0.001030
TP3: 0.000980
Stop-Loss: 0.001205
The 0.001350 spike was followed by sustained selling, leaving price below MA5 and MA10. Reclaiming 0.001205 would weaken the bearish continuation structure.
NFA
manage risk carefully.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The early morning market scenario played out as expected.
Positioned long at the 80300‑80800 support range, the price bottomed and rebounded, successfully reaching the first target.
Using technical structure as the basis, validating the approach with market movements.
Steady in prediction, focused on execution. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC $ETH $SNDK SanDisk's candlestick chart is like a rocket shooting straight into the sky; the main force is determined to make a move!
The previous small pullback was just to scare retail investors and wash out the unsteady chips. Now that the load is lighter, it's easier to push up. The price is steadily holding at a high level, like reaching a flat spot halfway up a mountain—taking a breather before the final climb.
Support is seen at 1570-1580; if it doesn't break, it's a good entry point. Resistance is at 1620; breaking through will lead to a big surge.
Be cautious as the storage sector has seen increased volatility recently, with some funds taking profits at high levels. Short-term chasing of highs requires caution.
For those wanting to learn more trading ideas and real-time levels, follow Ali! #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 The current U.S. labor market is in a structural equilibrium state of "low hiring, low layoffs," even approaching "no hiring, no layoffs." Combining recent ADP employment data and seasonal patterns, the market's forecast for this nonfarm payroll report shows the following characteristics:
Market consensus expectations: Mainstream institutions expect the August nonfarm payroll increase to be between 53,000 and 58,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.1%, and the year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings expected to slow to 3.0%.
Significant Wall Street divergence: Wall Street's forecast range for the data spans as much as 150,000 (ranging from -25,000 to +125,000). Some pessimistic institutions (such as Bank of America and Citibank) predict new jobs of only 20,000 to 40,000, with some even forecasting possible negative growth again; optimistic institutions (such as Wells Fargo) believe the abnormal decline in July will be corrected in August, expecting an increase of 80,000.
Seasonal weakness characteristic: Historical data shows that August nonfarm payroll data has a 71% probability of falling below market expectations, and the initial August figures in the past four years have all been revised downward later, increasing the risk of this data falling short of expectations $BTC $ETH $ZEC 9.4 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
Two very important data points will determine whether to raise or cut interest rates!
The first is tonight's major non-farm payroll data, one of the most important non-farm payroll data points of the year for August, which will decide whether to raise or cut rates. Tonight's data is unlikely to exceed or fall below expectations!
The second is the August CPI to be released next week. These two data points will determine the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in September, which will decide the trajectory of global stock markets, gold, crypto, and other assets in the second half of the year!🚨 A GREEN CANDLE ISN’T ALWAYS A BUY SIGNAL. 📈
When crypto starts moving fast, FOMO gets louder.
That’s exactly when discipline matters most.
I’m keeping my framework simple:
🟢 Core → $BTC $ETH
🔵 Growth → $SOL $XRP
🔴 Higher Risk → $KAITO $BEAT
I’m not chasing every pump.
I’d rather build exposure gradually, manage risk, and keep liquidity available for the setups that actually make sense.
Missing one move is better than forcing a trade at the wrong price.
Patience isn’t inactivity. Last 2 times, Bitcoin ETFs had a $700,000,000+ in daily inflow; $BTC shortly formed a top.
Yesterday, ETFs bought $730,870,000 in BTC, the largest inflow in almost 8 months.
Is the local top close for Bitcoin?$BTC has been consolidating at a high level for a day, a big move is coming tonight!
Currently, the key focus for Bitcoin is 83500, which is a strong resistance level according to Luo Jie.
As long as it can't break above 83500, Luo Jie continues to favor a bearish outlook, shorting directly on a proper rebound, with plenty of downside room.
$ETH key level to watch is 2580.
Short positions near 2550 have already been entered, and 2580 can be considered for adding more, but position size must be strictly controlled.
Ethereum has indeed been stronger than BTC recently, and ETF funds are more inclined towards ETH, so shorting ETH should not be done with heavy positions; strict position management is essential.$CATI 1H LONG
Previous short invalidated above 0.05472.
Entry: 0.05790–0.05820
TP1: 0.05975
TP2: 0.06119
TP3: 0.06300
Stop-Loss: 0.05690
CATI is stabilizing near MA10 after cooling from 0.06119. A hold above 0.05790 supports continuation, while losing 0.05690 would expose the MA20 area.
NFA
manage risk carefully.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $DASH 1H LONG
Previous long cleared all three targets.
Entry: 51.30–52.20
TP1: 53.60
TP2: 54.67
TP3: 56.00
Stop-Loss: 50.70
DASH is consolidating above rising MA10/20 after reaching 54.67. Holding 51.30 keeps the higher-low structure intact for another resistance test.
NFA
manage risk carefully.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单
I am Xiaoxin, $BTC has risen above 80000 again, but this time it’s not driven by sentiment.
The Fed’s rate hike expectations have clearly cooled down, US Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar has weakened, and funds are flowing back into risk assets. After Waller’s speech, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 70% to around 50%, giving solid macro support to this rebound.
However, there is significant market divergence. Yili Hua believes the bull market has already started, with the next resistance at 86000. Jiang Zhuoer is more cautious, having completely cleared all $BTC positions near 82050, citing the risk of a pullback after ETF funds weaken. In August, spot ETFs still saw net inflows overall, but in September funds began to swing both ways, and institutional buying has yet to form a continuous offensive.
An even more notable signal is that the 90-day correlation between $BTC and gold has reached its highest level since 2020. This indicates that Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a pure risk asset to a "currency depreciation hedge asset." This structural change is far more important than short-term price fluctuations.
The core contradiction now is one: whether institutional funds linked with gold can absorb the selling pressure in the 80000-82500 range for BTC. If volume increases and it stabilizes above 82000, the space will open up; if it repeatedly surges and falls back, this could mark a phase top.
The direction hasn’t changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Brother Ci has spoken, now savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ This report is written quite objectively. Bank of America’s is indeed less exaggerated than others.
Alert downgraded, but risk premium remains" — The 10 peak indicators have dropped from 70% to 60%, indicating that the high-risk moment in May has passed. The improvement in SLOOS credit and the normalization of the tech bubble are two substantial positive changes. However, a 60% trigger rate corresponds to a median return of +3% over the next 12 months, meaning there is no big gain at the index level; money is in the structure. Bank of America's answer is very clear: use large-cap value as ballast (energy, finance, healthcare, materials), avoid "value traps" like media and IT services, and focus opportunities on areas combining quality and momentum such as medical devices, software, and life sciences tools. For investors, the correct use of the "yellow light" is to take advantage of the market sentiment recovery window to rebalance, shifting positions from overvalued stocks to discounted sectors supported by earnings, rather than going all-in. The anonymous posts that gained attention for calling the Oct. 6, 2025 cycle top are circulating again — this time with a much more aggressive rebound thesis. Reports have linked the original call to BTC topping around the $126K area on Oct. 6. The new targets being discussed: ₿ $BTC → $190,000 ♦️ $ETH → $15,000 ◎ $SOL → $1,000 The thesis? QE is back under a different name. Liquidity is returning. Crypto may have already bottomed. And if that same upside math extends beyond the majors, the specu$ZEC is holding strong after another sharp move, now up 5.87% at around $1,008. Buyers have pushed price close to the $1,029.99 high, keeping momentum firmly bullish. The key question is whether this strength can break the current resistance. A clean move above $1,029.99 could open the way toward $1,077.71, while rejection may bring profit-taking and a short pullback. $ZEC remains one to watch closely as buyers test this level.#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
9-03 (Wednesday, US Eastern, closing data)
- Bitcoin BTC Spot ETF: Net inflow of $296.4 million
Significant capital return, multiple leading ETFs achieved large purchases, ARKB was the main inflow driver of the day. Ending the previous day's capital outflow status, institutional capital sentiment marginally improved.
- Ethereum ETH Spot ETF: Net inflow of $68 million
Simultaneously turned to net inflow, ending the previous trading day's capital outflow; however, the single-day inflow scale is significantly smaller than Bitcoin, with capital preference favoring BTC.
Summary of the past 7 days
BTC's total net inflow over the past 7 days is slightly positive. After a round of capital fluctuations, Wednesday saw a significant return; ETH's capital switched between inflow and outflow over the past week, with greater institutional divergence on Ethereum, and no stable sustained buying trend formed yet.
Market interpretation
1. Overall crypto ETF capital warmed up on Wednesday, mainly driven by employment data expectations and risk appetite recovery, with stronger capital return momentum for Bitcoin.
2. ETH's single-day inflow of $68 million can only be considered a mild return; to reverse the trend, continuous daily inflows of ≥ $50 million to $80 million are needed.
3. Next, focus on the non-farm payroll data, as its strength will directly change the ETF capital flow direction in the next 1-2 trading days.Everyone was scared to short at $1,800 ETH and $64K BTC… so why does everyone suddenly feel bullish at $81K? 👀
Crypto loves to do the exact opposite of what the crowd expects.
When BTC was around $78K, most of the community was bearish. That’s when I decided to go long.
Now BTC is around $81K, and suddenly the sentiment is shifting bullish. That makes me think the market may be setting up for another pullback.
#DailyOrbit BTC: 81,000 sways, will the bull market quickly return or is it a bear trap?
Current price 81113, moving averages in bullish alignment (MA5 80991), MACD should be shining bright (chart not fully shown but trend is upward), looks like it’s about to break the previous high of 82279. But QCP says "spot demand is rising"—such news often signals a short-term emotional peak. From 77600 to 81100, many profit-takers are waiting to cash out. The resistance at 82279 is tough; failing to break it once means a double top.
If RSI behaves like ETH’s usual pattern, it’s probably heading above 70+. Don’t be fooled by the "mainstream coin" halo, BTC has been moving with US stocks recently, and hawkish comments can push it down to 79000 anytime.
Strategy: Light short position at current price 81113, stop loss at 82300 (give up if it breaks previous high), target 80100 (MA10), if it breaks down further, look at 78700 (MA20)!
Risk-reward is favorable: lose 1.5% to gain 2.5%+. Don’t FOMO, BTC is the cure for all doubts, short it and wait for the pullback, it’s safer than chasing highs. Remember, bull markets have many sharp drops, and bear traps never miss the show! 🩸$ZEC $ETH $BTC Funding: ETF Continues Inflows, Strong Institutional Demand
ETF—Continuous Recovery, Weekly Inflows Exceed $800 Million
Yesterday (September 3), the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $101.15 million, reversing the previous day's net outflow of $236.5 million. Among them, BlackRock IBIT contributed $115.45 million, leading the inflows. As of Thursday this week, ETFs have recorded a net inflow of $812.26 million, poised to maintain positive inflows for the third consecutive week.
In August, Bitcoin ETFs saw a total inflow of $3.52 billion, marking the best month since 2026. Year-to-date capital flow remains negative (approximately -$1.07 billion).
Derivatives Market—Contract Trading Volume Surges
With BTC returning to $80,000, contract activity has significantly rebounded, and market participation enthusiasm is high. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 This flips what I flagged a few days ago.Back then $BTC and $XAU were falling together, safe haven not acting safe. Now the correlation's still elevated but both are rising together instead. Same relationship, opposite direction. Worth watching if it holds through NFP.#HOOD closes at a new annual high, leading public chains in on-chain revenue
Latest data
Robinhood's stock price HOOD surged to a new annual high, with its Robinhood Chain's single-day on-chain revenue surpassing $3.8 million, accounting for nearly 38% of the entire network during the period. The revenue scale temporarily outperforms most mainstream public chains. On-chain activity mainly comes from Meme coin trading, with 10% of fees flowing back to the ARB ecosystem. Market $BTC at 81155.9, with the overall market maintaining a range-bound oscillation.
Market consensus
Some believe that the combination of brokerage physical business and on-chain explosion opens up the imagination space for the integration of traditional finance and crypto; others are more cautious, noting that current traffic is basically supported by Meme hype, and once the heat fades, on-chain revenue will quickly decline.
Underlying logic analysis
This chain itself has no native token; on-chain dividends are indirectly given to $ARB. In the short term, it is a pulse market driven by meme, and whether it can continue depends on the subsequent real business implementation. Short-term single-day data should not be linearly extrapolated.
Personal view (personally inclined to a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
It is a very eye-catching industry case, but do not blindly chase related concept stocks. With non-farm payrolls approaching, prioritize position control. Today, let's continue with a detailed introduction of this super good product called JEPQ.
Talking about JEPQ's strategy, if JEPQ keeps falling, it can still yield about 10% or even 15% annualized dividend yield. And when it rises, you can also benefit from the price increase!
It doesn't fall as much as QQQ, and of course, it doesn't rise as much as QQQ either! But the interest is tens of times higher, since QQQ's annualized dividend yield is only 0.4%.
JEPQ originates from QQQ and uses QQQ as its underlying asset.
It is basically a one-sided strategy of selling call options. It has bought $1 billion worth of the underlying stock, then starts selling $1 billion worth of call options. What is a call? It's selling call options! The idea is that the price won't rise beyond a certain point, roughly around 1 to 2 months, I estimate.
By selling calls, the average monthly return is about 2%. Regardless of price going up or down, through this fluctuation, it achieves huge returns, using the option premiums to pay you interest. It seems very simple.
But the downside is if QQQ rises 50%, JEPQ might only rise about 20%.
The benefit is if QQQ falls 50%, JEPQ might only fall 30%. And whether it goes up or down, your yield, or "rent," is always above 10%.
So next, do you think Nasdaq should go on the offense or defense? Ultimate Nonfarm Payroll Prediction Tonight! The Most Authentic Market Logic Online!
⚠️ Attention everyone! The major market event that truly determines this round's rise or fall will land tonight!
All the rebounds, fluctuations, and small rallies in the past few days were just early games, capital probes, and emotional warm-ups!
The real anchor—the US August Nonfarm Payroll data—will directly decide the short-term bull or bear tonight!
My prediction: Tonight's data will be weak, cool, bearish for the dollar, and bullish for Bitcoin overall
The reasons are very solid:
1. The leading ADP data was a cold surprise (39,000, far below expectations)
2. Initial jobless claims continue to rise, signaling labor market cooling
3. August layoff announcements increased significantly year-over-year
4. Federal Reserve officials have recently collectively turned dovish, and the market is already betting on cooling
Simply put:
Employment is weak → rate hikes are completely off the table → no hikes locked in for September and November → crypto market directly loosens up!
Authoritative forecast:
✅ Data is weak
Dollar plunges, Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds!
ETH, SOL, LTC will stretch violently
Highly elastic altcoins recover across the board, bulls fully rejoice!
Emotions suppressed for half a month will be released all at once!
Coin-specific impacts (key points):
BTC: The stable leader, data favorable leads to breaking resistance, unfavorable data is also most resistant to decline
ETH: The biggest beneficiary this round! Rate cut expectations favor the large-cap ecosystem, elasticity far exceeds BTC
SOL: The leverage hub! Once favorable, its explosive power is the strongest!
Hold steady! Just watch tonight!
$BTC $ETH $SOLSeptember has historically been a challenging month for Bitcoin, with $BTC averaging around a 2.95 percent decline.
This year could bring more volatility, especially with the 10Y Treasury yield rising and markets adjusting to higher for longer rates.
Friday’s US jobs report could be the next major catalyst.
Options positioning also points to strong downside protection around the 68K to 75K zone.
Keeping a close eye on $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL.
#WallerEyesAugCPI
#BTCGoldRatioHigh Waller's few dovish remarks directly dropped the probability of a September rate hike from 63% to just over 50%, causing risk assets to take off on the spot. $BTC surged past $81,000 in one go, rising more than 5% in 24 hours.
The hardest hit in this wave was Zcash, which jumped nearly 15% in one day, leading the pack. Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Dogecoin also saw gains between 4% and 5%.
The three major US stock indexes all rose more than 1%, with the Dow soaring over 600 points. Tech stocks led the charge, with Tesla up more than 5% and SpaceX up over 6%. Cryptocurrency concept stocks were even stronger, with Strategy surging over 17% and Coinbase up more than 10%.
On the A-shares side, AI application concepts collectively strengthened, with Longban Media hitting a 5-day winning streak. Digital currency concepts were also active, with Cuiwei Co. and Chutianlong both hitting daily limit ups. The agricultural sector warmed up against the trend, boosted by confirmation of El Niño formation.
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose 437 points, with AI application stocks leading gains. Meituan rose more than 5%, and both Construction Bank and Bank of China hit new all-time highs. Boya Interactive surged over 11%, riding the Bitcoin wave.
Gold also rallied, with spot gold climbing above $4478. How far this wave can go still depends on upcoming data.I expect a sharp drop in September, but most likely it won't start right now.
The real scenario might be a pull-up first to boost sentiment, then a brutal shakeout. This pattern is the deadliest: first making the shorts doubt their lives, then trapping the longs right at the peak.
A few key support levels I judge this shakeout won't effectively break below:
$BTC → 74000 $ZEC → 750
$ETH → 2350 $SOL → 95
$HYPE → 73
These levels are the last bottom line; if they are truly reached, the opportunity outweighs the risk. But the premise is not to run out of ammo during the earlier fake breakouts. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 UNI has made another strategic-level advancement today
Uniswap Labs has purchased PONS tokens from Pons, a leading token issuance platform on Robinhood Chain, which Pons defines as a "long-term interest alignment." The transaction size, price, and holding addresses were not disclosed, so it cannot be interpreted as a large-scale acquisition, but the direction is clear: Uniswap Labs is no longer just running Pools.trade on its own, but is starting to directly bind capital with the strongest third-party traffic entry on Robinhood Chain.
The core significance of this event is not in PONS itself, but in the real trading volume it brings to Uniswap V4. According to the latest data, Pons' daily fees are about $5.95M, and 7-day fees about $28.83M; tokens successfully launched on its V2 eventually enter Uniswap V4 liquidity pools. Robinhood Chain currently contributes about 56.3% of the total Uniswap V4 chain trading volume: approximately $901.5M / $1.6B in 24h, significantly exceeding about $465.5M on Ethereum. Uniswap's daily fees on Robinhood Chain are about $7.72M.
$UNI #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 For $ZEC , I’m watching the $1,040–$1,060 area for a potential rejection.
the bigger level is $900. A daily close below it would weaken the bullish structure significantly.
if the price loses $900, then retests $900–$920 and gets rejected again, the bearish setup becomes much more interesting.
There is no rush confirmation first.
just my personal view.ZEC has broken 1,000, brothers! But don't get too excited yet—is this a short squeeze or a top?
Current price 1008, surged 5.56%, rising nonstop from 841, all moving averages bullish (MA5 976), MACD histogram 33.85 strongly positive and red, looking very bullish. But look closely—the news headline says "Breaking 1,000 causes 3 whales to liquidate, another 30-dollar rise will liquidate 67 addresses," this blatant liquidation data clearly shows the market makers targeting short positions for a blowout. Shorts are almost dead, fuel is running out, how much higher can it go? Resistance at previous high 1032, RSI is definitely overbought (estimated 70+), chasing longs? Be careful catching the last wave.
Strategy: Light short at current price 1008, stop loss at 1035 (give up if it breaks previous high), target 976 (MA5), if it breaks down look at 929 (MA10)!
Risk-reward is favorable: lose 2.5% to gain 5%+. Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment, ZEC has risen from 650 to 1000, a correction is due. Shorting it is more reliable than chasing highs. Remember, coins with "Z" in their name have a temper, they specialize in handling all kinds of defiance!🩸$BTC $ZEC $ETH ETH reaching 100 trillion is a dream, but a 1 trillion market cap is achievable
Nick Tomaino said ETH is a trustless neutral store of value, the only chance to reach a 100 trillion dollar scale. A 333x increase, equivalent to ETH price surging above $800,000.
Is it realistic? No.
But a 1 trillion market cap, corresponding to an ETH price of about $83,000, is not an exaggeration.
Currently, ETH market cap is about 300 billion, so it only needs a bit more than 3x increase to reach 1 trillion.
BTC has already stabilized at $80,000, with a market cap of about 1.6 trillion. As the second largest asset, ETH's market cap is only one-fifth of BTC's, which is indeed relatively low.
The trustless neutral narrative, ETH and BTC are indeed competing for this positioning.
Other tokens are essentially company tokens, driven by BD and marketing, with long-term value accumulation ability inferior to ETH.
Robinhood Chain choosing to be an L2 instead of starting from scratch is itself a recognition of the EVM network effect.
ETH's value is not supported by hype, but by developers, users, and capital continuously flowing in this direction.
100 trillion is for dreaming, 1 trillion is for reality. $CHIP is waterfalling, have all the long positions exited?
There is heavy selling pressure above 0.0630, contract funds are continuously flowing out, it can't hold anymore.
Retail investors are all selling now, institutions still hold many long positions; as soon as big money sells, the waterfall drop will happen instantly.
The hourly chart has already formed a downtrend, Xiaoyan chooses to short for a bite, there is strong resistance above 0.0624 on the hourly chart, current price 0.0552 to short, target seen at 0.0456-0.0400
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 🚀Is the AI sector about to make a big move again? Moon's Dark Side is rumored to have IPO plans, and the market's attention is once again focused on the future of AI!
According to insiders, the domestic AI company Moon's Dark Side could debut on the Hong Kong capital market as early as this year, planning to raise $3 billion to $5 billion through an IPO, with a maximum fundraising scale possibly reaching $5 billion.
It is reported that Moon's Dark Side has already started preparations for the listing plan and has invited multiple international financial institutions to participate, including Bank of America, CICC, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs, among others, to coordinate.
Simply put, this AI company is preparing for its "coming of age" 🎓 — previously growing rapidly with investors' funds, it now hopes to enter the public market to allow more capital to participate in its future development story.
Why is the market so focused?
Because the whole world is now scrambling for the "future ticket" of AI 🚢. From the U.S. tech giants pouring massive investments into building AI infrastructure to major companies competing for computing power, models, and application entry points, AI is no longer just a technical concept but is becoming the new core of industrial competition.
For the investment market, AI and the crypto industry actually share many similarities:
In the early stages, everyone questions: "Is this just hype?"
But as funds, users, and applications continuously flow in, the market will gradually reprice.
Just like infrastructure construction in the crypto space, truly valuable projects ultimately compete not on short-term hype but on who can continuously generate users, create revenue, and form their own ecological closed loop.$ETH How high can this wave really go? Above 2500, can we keep shorting? 🤔 Ethereum clearly started to stall before the US session yesterday, repeatedly holding around 2350, then immediately rebounded and climbed back above 2500, reaching as high as 2540. Even more impressive, $BTC broke through 81000, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 5%. I thought it would continue to decline, but both big and short doses taught the air force a lesson 😂. But tonight is the real test. At 20:30 Beijing time, US August nonfarm payroll data was released. The market currently expects about 56,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Since July nonfarm payrolls still showed negative growth, if this data shows obvious deviations, market volatility could be huge. So now, I actually don't dare to chase long. After a continuous rally near 2500, the short-term has entered a pressure zone. Let's try shorting with a swing approach 📉. Not bearish on the big trend, just that chasing the sharp rise before the data release isn't cost-effective. Let's look at one outcome tonight: 👉 Nonfarm payrolls weaker than expected: rate cut/easing expectations are heating up, BTC and ETH may continue to surge 👉. Nonfarm payrolls are clearly stronger than expected: Fed rate cut expectations are under pressure, coin prices may plunge 👉 first. Data close to expectations: so let's keep watching if it can hold near 2500. As for whether 2500 is the top or the starting point for the next rally, we'll see the real results at 20:30 tonight. Current funds: 150U💰, 200U compound interest plan, continuing to hold onRocket 🚀 about to take off?
Today let's talk about SpaceX (SPCX) overall plan and business closed-loop logic
Musk's ambition is huge; if the goals are achieved in the future, the market value could exceed one hundred trillion (speculated to be in 10-20 years)
Core positioning: Not just a rocket company, but a space infrastructure operator.
Four layers of business: Starlink, launch services, Starship, space + AI integrated business
1. Short term (1-3 years): Build stable cash flow
1. Starlink (cash cow)
- For personal home broadband, RV/sea, in-flight WiFi, government and military private networks;
- B2B: providing dedicated lines for shipping, mining, and remote area enterprises;
- Profit logic: massive satellites dilute the cost per unit, subscription-based continuous monthly revenue;
- Purpose: Starlink's earnings subsidize rocket, Starship, and xAI's huge R&D.
2. Commercial launch business (Falcon 9)
- First-stage rocket recovery reduces single launch cost to a fraction of traditional rockets;
- Customers: satellite operators worldwide, NASA, military, commercial payloads;
- Status: currently holds a high global launch market share, but single project profit is thin, R&D investment is large, overall still at a loss, mainly used to maintain launch proficiency and accumulate engineering experience.
Short-term business logic: Starlink profits → fund rocket R&D; rocket price reduction → can deploy more Starlink satellites, forming the first small closed loop.
2. Mid term (3-7 years): Starship is the key to the whole story
Starship is a fully reusable super heavy rocket.
Goals:
1. Reduce orbital cost magnitude: cost per ton to space drops to 1/20 or even lower;
2. Huge capacity: single launch hundred-ton payload, can launch hundreds of Starlink V3 satellites at once;
3. Open new markets:
- Large space stations, orbital manufacturing, on-orbit maintenance, space tourism;
- Lunar lander (NASA lunar program);
- Build space computing power: place servers in orbit for AI cooling and distributed computing.
Mid-term business closed loop:
Starship lowers launch costs → Starlink further expands, adding mobile communication (direct-to-phone) business → simultaneously undertakes large external space projects → overall revenue ceiling greatly raised.
Additionally, Musk merges xAI into the listed company main body:
- Starlink provides global communication; Starship provides space computing deployment;
- AI optimizes rocket scheduling, satellite orbits, autonomous maintenance;
- Narrative: aerospace + AI dual growth track, no longer just traditional military aerospace stock.
⚠️ Risk: Starship multiple test flights, landing time highly uncertain. Continuous delays would discount the entire valuation logic.
3. Long term (7-20 years): Multi-planet civilization (vision layer)
1. Lunar economic circle: lunar resource mining, lunar base, research stations, tourism;
2. Mars colonization: manned Mars landing, establishing self-sustaining bases (very long term, decades scale);
3. Entire space economy: orbital real estate, on-orbit factories, space energy, deep space exploration.
Long-term business logic:
All current businesses are "infrastructure investments."
If the space economy really grows big, SpaceX as the lowest cost transporter + largest satellite operator is equivalent to the space version of Amazon + telecom operator + logistics company, enjoying the entire space industry growth dividend.
4. Complete business closed-loop chain (one sentence version)
1. Falcon 9: earn current launch orders, practice recovery technology;
2. Starlink: generate continuous cash flow, support R&D;
3. Starship: revolutionary freight cost reduction, open massive new space markets;
4. xAI: use AI to optimize all hardware operations, open new space computing track;
5. Long term: lunar-Mars development, occupy next-generation civilization infrastructure entry.
5. Main risk points (need continuous tracking)
1. Starship progress risk: repeated test flight failures, commercialization delays, biggest uncertainty;
2. Starlink competition: Amazon Kuiper, OneWeb and other satellite constellations divert market; national regulations, spectrum licensing issues;
3. Huge cash burn: Starship + AI investment huge funds, even if listed, may continue large losses for years;
4. Valuation premium: current stock price largely reflects Musk's personal + long-term space narrative faith premium; if performance is slow, valuation likely to adjust;
5. Geopolitics: changes in national policies on space militarization, satellite data sovereignty regulation.
6. Daily tracking key indicators (to observe if logic is realized)
1. Starlink: new subscriber count, ARPU, gross margin, enterprise/government orders;
2. Starship: successful orbital test flights, payload, reusable progress, commercialization launch schedule;
3. Launch business: annual launch count, per launch gross margin, external large customer orders;
4. xAI segment: revenue growth, loss narrowing or continuing expansion;
5. Management guidance on Starship, Starlink, capital expenditure in each financial report.
Got it? So just put some pocket money into a regular investment, what if it happens?
#火箭实验室财报超预期，商业航天热度延续 These two matters actually point to the same core: the market is repricing "scarcity".
📈 $BTC to gold ratio rises to 18.17, hitting a new high since January
As of September 4, the $BTC/XAU ratio has climbed to 18.17, meaning 1 $BTC can be exchanged for over 18 ounces of gold. Bitcoin is around $81,000, outperforming gold #BTC to gold ratio rises to a high since January, can the strength continue?
· Driving logic: The synchronous rise of both is due to market concerns about "governments diluting debt through currency devaluation." U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen bluntly stated at the G20 that "the world is drowning in debt," which the crypto community ironically views as the "best Bitcoin advertisement of the year."
· Key threshold: 18 ounces is the high point since January this year. If it can hold steady, $BTC's relative strength is expected to continue; if it falls, the initiative will return to gold.
🏦 Waller: August CPI will decide September rate hike fate
Federal Reserve Governor Waller clearly stated that whether the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will raise rates "will largely depend on the August inflation data."
· Scenario one (inflation cooling): If August CPI continues to decline, he supports keeping rates unchanged.
· Scenario two (inflation rebound): If the data is strong, he will consider supporting a rate hike.
Waller's overall tone is dovish; after his remarks, the probability of a September rate hike briefly dropped to about 50%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.34% #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino: ETH's potential market cap expected to reach $100 trillion, theoretical increase of 333 times On September 4, 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino posted that ETH and BTC are currently the only assets competing in the trusted neutral value storage track, while the other tokens are mostly company tokens. Currently, ETH's market cap is about $300 billion; if the $100 trillion goal is reached, the theoretical increase could reach 333 times. He also cited Robinhood Chain's launch as an L2 model, stating that serious developers are continuously entering the EVM ecosystem to strengthen the ETH network effect. Nick Tomaino is the founder of the early crypto fund 1confirmation and has long been betting on the Ethereum ecosystem. In his September 4 article, he presented an extremely long-term valuation framework: truly decentralized, issuer-free, and uncontrolled by a single entity in value storage assets are only BTC and ETH, while the vast majority of other tokens are essentially corporate tokens, characterized by insider market manipulation, project teams subject to judicial jurisdiction, and development dependent on business expansion, making it difficult to fulfill the role of a neutral value store. Based on this characterization, he used the current ETH market cap of about $300 billion as a base and compared it to a potential market cap of $100 trillion, estimating a theoretical increase of 333 times. It should be emphasized that this is a long-term narrative goal, not a short-term price prediction. He also cited Robinhood$BTC $ETH $ZEC Analysis of three possible scenarios for the Nonfarm Payrolls:
1️⃣ Employment data far better than expected: The market will further bet on maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar will strengthen, and BTC and ETH will most likely drop quickly, significantly increasing the risk of contract liquidations.
2️⃣ Employment data far worse than expected: Expectations for rate cuts rise, benefiting risk assets, the market will likely rally, but beware of price pullbacks after the positive news is priced in.
3️⃣ Data in line with market expectations: The market enters a consolidation phase to digest the information, and the trend returns to its original technical pattern.
On the night of the Nonfarm Payrolls release, there can easily be spikes and false breakouts, so it is not recommended to enter heavy positions immediately after the data is released.
It is advised to wait for the news to settle and for the market to show a clear direction before trading. Always control position size and set strict stop losses.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 The probability of a rate hike suddenly plummeted, and I still hold a short position on $SPCX, which is honestly a bit laughable and frustrating. 😭
Yesterday the market completely reversed; the Fed's probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 63.2% to 48.4%, a drop of over ten percentage points just like that. The US stock market and crypto space were partying like crazy. It should have been a good thing, but the problem is I'm on the short side.
Looking at $SPCX again, it closed at 149.74 yesterday, up 6.42%, with an intraday high of 152.30 and a trading volume of 118 million shares, clearly showing volume-driven gains.
Technically, 150 is a key psychological level, and 152-153 is the previous high resistance zone. If volume continues to push through 153, shorts will really suffer, and it could head straight to 155.
But I still want to bet on a pullback. If it breaks below 147.5 in the short term, the probability of hitting 145 increases; if 145 fails to hold, the next target is 142.5-140.
Tonight at 20:30 is the nonfarm payrolls report, expected to add 50,000 to 55,000 jobs, with the previous value at -23,000. Whether the shorts can catch a break depends on whether this data shows some mercy. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $AIXBT USDT
Technical Analysis: Soft downtrend with decreasing momentum. Price is consolidating near recent lows — potential for a short relief move.
EP: 0.0198 – 0.0204
TP1: 0.0218 | TP2: 0.0230
SL: 0.0187$ZEC is today's biggest dark horse, with the privacy sector fully exploding, surging over 17% in 24 hours, leading the mainstream altcoin market, and trading volume doubling directly. Recently, the privacy narrative has been heating up continuously; amid rising regulatory uncertainty, anonymous and privacy public chains have become the main themes for capital risk aversion and speculation. As the absolute leader in this sector, ZEC is directly entering a major upward recovery.
Previously, it lingered at a long-term low with low popularity and no attention. Major funds have been accumulating and washing out weak hands thoroughly, leaving almost no resistance to the rally. This round of increase is driven by sector logic plus capital resonance, not a short-term pulse rally, with strength far exceeding ordinary rotational rebounds. Bulls on the market are crushing bears strongly, and the trend has completely reversed.
However, after such a large single-day surge, the short-term is severely overbought, with profit-taking piled up like a mountain, and the risk of a technical correction rising sharply. The privacy sector is a thematic speculation; the heat comes fast and fades fast, so avoid blindly chasing highs at the top. Those holding from low positions can take profits in batches, while those who missed out should not buy at high prices but patiently wait for a second opportunity after a pullback to support.🚨 $BTC IS BACK ABOVE $80K — BUT THE ETF DATA TELLS A MORE COMPLICATED STORY. Bitcoin pushed back above $80K, reaching around $81.4K, helped by softer bond yields and changing expectations around Fed policy. But I’m less interested in the headline move. I’m watching the liquidity behind it. U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded roughly +$101M on Sept. 2, reversing the previous session’s -$236M outflow. At the same time, $ETH, $SOL and $XRP ETFs were still seeing outflows. That’s an important divergence. I$INJ USDT
Technical Analysis: Broader market lag. Price is testing short-term support after a multi-day pullback. Watch for reaction at current levels.
EP: 4.75 – 4.85
TP1: 5.10 | TP2: 5.30
SL: 4.55At this level, just lock in positions. It's not about being bearish, nor bullish, but about preventing sweeping and stopping losses. Once the data comes out, you first kill the bulls, then the shorts, and finally move the real direction—aren't there plenty of such scenarios? Betting on one-sided? A 50% probability plus a bunch of analysis sounds professional, but it's mostly just our assumptions. Before the market comes out, all the "high probabilities" are just psychological comfort. Nonfarm payrolls are designed to handle all kinds of dissatisfaction. So, lock in the data first, wait until the direction is clear, then unlock it. It's okay to earn a little less; it's better than getting slapped in the face back and forth. — Personal trading notes, not advice.$BOME USDT
Technical Analysis: Classic meme coin pullback. Price is holding above recent micro-support but remains in a short-term downtrend.
EP: 0.000855 – 0.000875
TP1: 0.000920 | TP2: 0.000965
SL: 0.000810BTC +5.3% | ETH +4.8%
$77K to $81.7K 🚀
Why did it pump?
1. FED: Rate hike chance dropped from 63% to 50%
2. Jobs: Weak data = Dovish Fed
3. DXY -0.5% | Bonds down = Risk-on
4. $416M shorts liquidated = Squeeze
5. BTC ETF +$101M | ETH ETF -$48M
Translation: Macro caused the pump, leverage accelerated it
This is not a bull run, it's a relief rally
If you want to enter, do it with a plan
NFP is at 5:30pm. Be careful 😅
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Trading
#OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #BTCGoldRatioHigh #WallerEyesAugCPI $BTC The coin has once again touched above 82,000. After the 8:30 non-farm payroll data, will the coin go up or down? No beating around the bush, quick layout for September 4:
Currently, the coin price is hovering around 81,200. Honestly, there is some selling pressure risk when the data is released. Recently, there have been consecutive small bullish candles, indicating strong market bullish sentiment. The probability is high that the price will dip down briefly before going back up. To be safe, I won’t place a market order this time but will continue to find good positions for you guys to lay in wait. No more talk, light head and heavy tail, let's get real.
Buy around 80,700-80,200, add positions: to be decided in the comments.
First tier target: 81,900-81,400
Second tier target: 83,200-82,700
Key level: 84,700
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $UNITREE USDT
Technical Analysis: Controlled decline with decent volume. Price is finding temporary support near current levels but trend is still down.
EP: 79.50 – 80.80
TP1: 84.50 | TP2: 87.50
SL: 76.20$BTC borrowed dovish signals from Fed's Waller saying "inflation meets target, so no action in September," surging over 4% on September 4, reaching a high of 81,426 USD, then retreating to around 80,990 USD at press time, with the 80,000 USD psychological level flipping from resistance to support within a day. However, the market is far from unified. Glassnode marks 81,800–82,300 USD as a dense liquidation zone for leveraged short positions, while the 83,000–86,000 USD range above is the supply wall from long-term holders' cost basis; Bitfinex views 82,818 USD as the two-day closing confirmation line and 76,657 USD as structural defense. Around 80,000 USD, approximately 880,000 BTC are stuck at breakeven, serving both as a bull defense line and an old coin realization point, with 76,300–75,000 USD recognized by the market as the "new supply floor." On-chain coins continue to diverge. On September 3, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of 730.9 million USD in a single day, the largest since January 14; BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for 454 million USD, with a historical total net inflow of 63.939 billion USD, and the total market BTC ETF net asset value is about 103.34 billion USD (6.32% of BTC market cap). Corporate treasuries and whales are operating inversely: Strive increased holdings by 1,800 BTC (average price 79,431 USD) spending 143 million USD from August 24–28, totaling purchases over ten days#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
After the US Eastern market closed on Wednesday, AI hardware leader Broadcom and data cloud software Snowflake both released earnings reports, signaling a chain of signals to the market: AI hardware prosperity continues, AI software finally begins to realize solid revenue, and capital starts to spread from purely speculating on computing power hardware to AI upper-layer applications and data layers.
Broadcom AVGO: Hardware performance explodes, but post-market shows divergence
Fiscal Year 2026 Q3 total revenue was $29.591 billion, up 86% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations.
- AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7 billion, soaring 221% year-over-year, up 54% quarter-over-quarter, with custom XPU chips as the core driver; OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are key major customers.
- Q4 guidance expects AI revenue to further surge to $21.7 billion; at the same time, a bold long-term target is set, with AI revenue doubling consecutively over the next two years, aiming for $230 billion in fiscal year 2028.
The post-market movement is very interesting: the earnings data is strong, but the stock price fluctuated sharply.
The contradiction: the earnings beat expectations has already been priced in by the stock price, and given the high base, the market doubts whether such an exaggerated growth rate can be maintained. As long as subsequent orders fall slightly short