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Smart money collapses, stacking coins rise: FOMO market begins, crypto market pricing power is changing hands Market observers note that the crypto market is undergoing a round of pricing power shift: smart money relying on information and on-chain advantages continues to underperform, while highly leveraged, high-turnover stacking speculators become market leaders, FOMO sentiment takes over the information gap, becoming the core driver of phased market trends. In traditional crypto market narratives, smart money usually refers to early on-chain entry addresses, institutional trading desks, insider wallets, and other participants with information or capital advantages. Tracking their movements was once seen as an important way for retail investors to gain excess returns. Stackers refer to speculative traders who do not rely on deep research, repeatedly increase holdings with high leverage, and quickly enter and exit by chasing hot trends. Their behavioral characteristics include high turnover, high volatility tolerance, and strong herd behavior. The core judgment of this observation is: when smart money systematically underperforms and code stackers continue to profit, it means the market's pricing logic has shifted from information gap to sentiment and liquidity drivers. Similar structures have appeared multiple times in history. For example, around the 2021 meme market and multiple knockoff seasons, on-chain smart money addresses positioned early but delayed fulfillment, while rally funds continuously profited from momentum, while sentiment funds became trend makers. Its importance is reflected in three aspects: First, the success rate of simply copying smart money addresses declines, and on-chain data interpretation requires combining sentiment, funding rates, and momentum indicators; Second, FOMO-dominated markets often have steep slopes and unpredictable durations, leading to price increasesCore Drivers of the Price Increase
① Waller's "Dovish Shift" Ignites the Market (Biggest Catalyst)
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller sent a strong dovish signal, stating that if inflation continues to cool, he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting. As a key figure in the Fed's hawkish camp, Waller's shift to dovish directly confirms the trend of a slowing labor market and stabilizing inflation, leading the market to heavily bet that the Fed is about to open or expand a rate cut window.
Earlier, the August ADP employment data unexpectedly cooled down, weakening hawkish expectations, and both Bitcoin and gold prices stopped falling and rebounded. After Waller's remarks, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields both came under pressure, with funds quickly flowing into high-elasticity assets and inflation-hedging instruments.
② Short Squeeze and ETF Funds Resonating
The price breaking through $80,000 triggered short covering, further amplifying the gains. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recently seen positive changes in fund flows—last week net inflows reached $924 million, following nine consecutive trading days of net inflows.
③ Marginal Easing of Geopolitical Risks
The US-Iran military conflict has not escalated further, and the decline in oil prices has eased market concerns about runaway inflation, providing a window for risk assets to rebound. $BTC $ETH $SOL #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 Bitcoin just pushed back above $80K, reaching roughly $81.4K intraday as falling bond yields and softer expectations around Fed policy improved risk appetite. But I am less interested in the headline move than the liquidity behind it. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $101.15M in net inflows on September 2, reversing a $236.46M outflow the previous day. Meanwhile, Ethereum, Solana and XRP ETFs all recorded outflows. That is a clear divergence. Institutional demand has not disappeared. It is El Niño stirs up commodities: Amid U.S. stock market calm, markets begin trading supply risks. El Niño climate disturbances on global commodity supply are becoming the main theme of market trading. Against the backdrop of low U.S. stock volatility and unclear macro direction, funds have started pricing in supply risks driven by weather, significantly increasing volatility expectations for fragile agricultural products. El Niño refers to a climate phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are abnormally high, reshaping precipitation and temperature distribution by altering global atmospheric circulation, making it one of the most important weather variables affecting global agricultural output and some industrial metal supply. Historically, during El Niño years, Southeast Asia and Australia tend to experience droughts, threatening yields of palm oil, wheat, sugar, and other crops; abnormal rainfall patterns in West Africa will impact cocoagulation with cocoa cultivation; South America may experience both floods and droughts, with copper production and port transportation in Peru and Chile facing disruption risks. Meanwhile, a warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere will suppress natural gas heating demand, causing structural differentiation on the energy side. For the market, the importance of this theme lies in the fact that current US stock volatility is low and macro direction lacks clarity, while El Niño provides a few highly certain supply-side narratives. Unlike demand-driven markets, weather shocks directly affect the supply curve; once major production cuts are realized, price elasticity is extremely high. Therefore, despite the calm market surface, futures funds have already begun to position in advance, buying agricultural futures futures and trading call options to create supply premiums, with the implied volatility of related products synchronized with open interestThe House of Representatives canceled the last two weeks of sessions in September and rushed home to fight for seats; the U.S. midterm elections are coming.
For politicians, no matter how important the crypto compliance bill is, can it be more important than the seat they hold?
So, the bill was postponed.
On September 15, when the Senate votes, the boot will drop, but it will also fall through.
Looking at it now, it's not that simple.
The worst case is dragging it directly into the lame-duck period after the election.
What does that mean?
After the election, Congress may undergo a major reshuffle. Some lose, some change positions, and some start preparing for handover.
During this phase, the political motivation of veteran lawmakers declines, and new lawmakers have not yet truly taken office.
Want to push a highly controversial crypto bill? The difficulty will only increase.
What’s more troublesome is if the power structure of Congress changes after the midterm elections.
Then this matter might not just be delayed by a few months; it will have to be renegotiated, the pie redistributed, or even re-legislated.
There are so many unresolved issues,
banking consortia eyeing stablecoin profits, the two parties stabbing each other over crypto interests, and within the crypto industry, different companies competing for regulatory benefits.
With so many interests unresolved, how could it end with just one vote?
The market had already priced in some expectations of the bill’s passage in advance.
Now the delay means the regulatory gray area will continue, and the SEC can still slowly clean up the industry through litigation.
Institutions wanting to enter on a large scale will also find it hard to fully loosen their reins.
So, the short-term script of the bill passing, the boot dropping, and the crypto market taking offSanDisk's movement today, those who understand, understand—on the eve of the nonfarm payrolls, capital has already started to rush ahead.
In the early session, it directly dropped to 1511, looking like it was going to collapse, but in the end, it was forcibly pulled back to close at 1554 in the green. Now the after-hours market is even at 1580, with nearly 6% turnover for the whole day and a trading volume of 13.4 billion USD.
This volume would be unusual on a normal day, but on the eve of the nonfarm payrolls, the meaning is clearer: someone is positioning in advance.
The logic is actually very straightforward. Yesterday's small ADP report was a surprise low, with August ADP only 37,000, a new low for the year; tonight's nonfarm market expectation is only 56,000. If it disappoints again, the probability of a September rate hike will drop from 60%. When rate hike expectations cool down, who bounces first? Highly elastic AI storage stocks—like SanDisk, whose valuation is fully dependent on liquidity and expectations.
In short, the market is betting now: weak data -> no rate hike -> capital loosening -> high beta stocks take off. SanDisk's late-session surge today is capital betting on this scenario in advance.
But to be fair, if the nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly exceed expectations, those who rushed in today will be the ones left holding tomorrow. The pre-data celebration is always Schrödinger's rally.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
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Tonight at 20:30, the truth will be revealed!!$BTC back above $81,000 as Fed hike odds fade
Traders cut September rate-hike odds after dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller; Zcash jumped about 15% alongside the move.
#WallerEyesAugCPI
#BTCGoldRatioHigh Waller softened his tone on September 3rd, saying that if inflation continues its recent trend, he supports keeping interest rates unchanged; only if the data is strong would he consider supporting a rate hike. After his remarks, the probability of a rate hike in September fell from over 70% to 50.2%.
Reuters survey expects August job additions between 56,000 and 58,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. July nonfarm payrolls were down 23,000, with May and June revised down by a total of 103,000. ADP reported 38,000, the weakest increase since January. Employment data has been cooling for three consecutive months.
Bank of America said nonfarm payrolls are just an appetizer; CPI is the main course that will decide the September rate hike. Inflation remains the core anchor of current policy.
Three scenarios: Nonfarm below 40,000, rate hike expectations continue to fall, BTC has a chance to rebound and test 79,000 to 80,000.
Nonfarm between 50,000 and 80,000, direction unclear, BTC continues to fluctuate. Nonfarm above 100,000, rate hike expectations solidify, BTC remains under pressure, looking down to 75,000 or even 72,000.
Employment data is cooling, but oil prices are still rising; Brent crude broke through $95, expanding inflationary pressures. Among 178 PCE subcomponents, 54% rose over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, inflation is still rising, the market cannot price unilaterally. Don't bet on the data, wait for it to land before acting. Tonight's nonfarm is just the appetizer; next week's CPI is the decisive battleground for the September rate hike.
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$BTC #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
Oil prices $CL may still rise.
Although there are signs of easing in the Strait of Hormuz passage, disruptions in the Red Sea, Russian-Ukrainian energy facilities, and Saudi exports have not been completely eliminated, and supply-side risks have not truly been resolved.
As long as these factors continue to ferment, oil prices may remain high or even rise further.
The rise in oil prices will transmit along this chain:
Oil price increase → Inflation rebound → Cooling of rate cut expectations → Rise in US Treasury yields → Pressure on BTC.
Therefore, going forward, $BTC should not only focus on Federal Reserve speeches; oil prices are also a key variable.
Before supply risks are completely eliminated, I am more inclined to see oil prices continue to rise, and BTC will still face short-term pressure. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 ETH has reached a critical position, but I firmly refuse to chase it.
After the surge, it started to pull back and is currently oscillating around 2500U, caught in a dilemma.
Although ETH-ETF funds continue to flow in and the staking lock-up ratio keeps rising, providing some support for the bulls,
passive institutional buying alone is far from enough. The market needs a large amount of new active buying to sustain the rally; it cannot rely solely on ETFs and staking to hold the price.
Some large holders on-chain have started to take profits, intensifying the high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, increasing the risk of volatile shakeouts.
At this stage, my strategy is to wait and see.
Three trading principles:
Do not chase highs, no matter how good the market narrative is, avoid impulsiveness;
Do not rush to bottom-fish, avoid entering recklessly during pullbacks;
Do not force trades, stay in cash if there’s no opportunity, frequent trading often leads to losses.
Signals from external markets are equally complex: Broadcom’s AI hardware segment exceeded expectations, Snowflake raised its full-year guidance, and computing power sentiment continues to benefit the crypto sector; on-chain, Robinhood chain trading volume keeps expanding, ARB protocol revenue narratives are heating up, and sector rotation is quietly unfolding. US tech stocks and crypto assets are interlinked, further amplifying market uncertainty.
For now, patience is the best choice. The market won’t end just because you miss one or two candlesticks. Protect your principal and wait for a higher certainty window before making a move.
#AI巨头债券利差飙升：投资风险还是抄底良机
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 📊 ETF FLOWS ARE TELLING A DIFFERENT STORY
Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in around $101M, while $ETH , $SOL and $XRP products saw outflows after a strong run.
That doesn’t mean the market is bearish.
It simply shows that institutional money is becoming more selective.
$BTC is still attracting capital, while some altcoin exposure is seeing profit-taking.
For me, this is a reminder to watch the flows, not just the price.
Capital rotation matters.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh DON’T LET FOMO CONTROL YOUR CAPITAL
$BTC is back above $80K, while $ETH is holding near $2.5K. Market sentiment is improving, but that doesn’t mean every coin deserves to be chased.
New opportunities will always come.
Core → $BTC, $ETH
Growth → $SOL, $XRP, $ZEC
Higher Risk → $KAITO, $BEAT
You don’t need to catch every pump.
Protect your capital. Keep liquidity ready. Increase exposure only when the setup makes sense. $CAP short, this whale has dumped half and is using negative funding rates here to attract people to take the bag. Short it. The whale has dumped half of its position. It’s using negative funding rate to lure retail into catching the bag.1. The peak of this cycle is around 126,000 in October 2025, with a maximum drawdown of about 54%, which is narrower compared to the historical bear market drawdowns of 75-87%, indicating a bottom uplift after market institutionalization;
2. Driving structural changes: no longer just retail investors + halving; ETF capital flows, US stock market linkage, and global interest rates have become core variables;
3. Historical statistics: September is historically a weak month for BTC performance, with volatility risk still extremely high Securities StarWhen BTC rises, this group of “relatives” right next to it immediately starts running wild.
On September 3rd, MSTR rose over 13%, COIN rose about 11%, HIVE rose about 13%, and MARA also exceeded 10%. Even more interestingly, Strategy just ended a roughly 10-week pause and bought back 4,603 BTC.
This is the most interesting aspect of crypto stocks.
When BTC rises 1%, they don’t necessarily only rise 1%.
Because besides BTC, there are valuation, leverage, profit expectations, and market sentiment involved.
Especially MSTR.
Essentially, it’s putting BTC exposure into a stock account.
When the market is good, the elasticity is even greater than BTC.
But don’t forget, the reverse is also true.
So when you see MSTR, mining companies, and exchange stocks all rallying together, don’t just interpret it as “BTC is bullish.”
It’s more like telling you:
The market is starting to be willing again to pay for BTC’s high risk and high elasticity.
But this kind of money is the most realistic.
It chases the rise the fastest.
And when withdrawing, it runs away the fastest.
$BTC $COIN $MSTR Lessons from High-Leverage Whales: Looking at Brother Maji's Positions, What Should We Learn and What Should We Avoid
Recently, the whole network has been buzzing about Brother Maji's contract positions worth over 100 million successfully turning losses into profits.
40x BTC and 25x ETH high-leverage long positions reversed losses against the trend, with a total position reaching 132 million USD.
Many retail investors see whales making money and their first reaction is to blindly follow: increase leverage, stubbornly hold through trends, and mindlessly copy trades.
But the vast majority only see the comeback results, not the extreme risks and capital reserves behind them.
1. Whales Dare to Use High Leverage Not Because They Are Reckless
Ordinary people have a huge misconception about whale trading: they think high leverage means high gambling.
The real logic is exactly the opposite:
Whales use high leverage relying on unlimited tolerance capital.
When the market spikes, short-term reversals, or approaches liquidation, whales can continuously add margin to withstand volatility.
Even if partially shaken out multiple times, as long as the main trend is correct, they can eventually turn the tide with time and capital strength.
Retail investors are completely opposite:
Limited funds, no room to add positions, can't withstand spikes, one mistake leads to total liquidation.
The same high leverage is called strategic play by whales, but a gamble with life by retail.
2. The Whale Mindset Worth Learning for Ordinary People
We may not learn leverage, but we must learn the mindset.
1) Only trade the main trend, not noise
Whales' main positions are always concentrated in core assets BTC and ETH.
They never get obsessed with small altcoins, frequently change directions, or chase minor fluctuations.
Big money profits from trends; small money dies from frequent trading.
2) Accept trial and error, don’t expect every trade to win
Whales also get stopped out by spikes, partial losses, and multiple small losses.
But their trading system is: many small mistakes, one big win covers all losses.
Retail investors’ biggest weakness:
Cannot accept losses, stubbornly hold losing trades, losing more and more, and one bad trade ruins all profits.
3) Stay firm on direction, don’t be swayed by short-term emotions
During this round of volatility, panic and bearish sentiment were everywhere.
Whales still firmly hold the bullish main logic, unaffected by short-term market noise.
Those who make big money dare to stick to the main line amid chaos.
3. Three Operations Ordinary People Must Absolutely Not Imitate
This is the root cause of 90% of retail losses: blindly copying whale operations.
1) Don’t copy ultra-high leverage
25x, 40x leverage has extremely low tolerance.
Any random non-farm payroll, spike, or negative news can trigger immediate liquidation.
2) Don’t stubbornly hold losses and keep adding
Whales add positions as a tactic; retail adding positions is an abyss.
Without sufficient capital backing, holding losing trades only ends in liquidation.
3) Don’t blindly copy on-chain data
On-chain positions are always lagging!
The profits you see are from old positions hours ago.
By the time you enter, whales have most likely already reduced, taken profits, or adjusted positions.
4. Summary: Learn the Mindset, Not the Positions
Brother Maji’s recent turnaround taught all traders the most realistic lesson:
Trend thinking can be learned, patience can be learned, trial-and-error systems can be learned.
High leverage, stubborn holding, and heavy bets on life must never be learned.
The harshest truth in trading:
Positions others can afford to lose, you may not.
Others’ profit scripts don’t fit your capital.
Learning to borrow, respect, and match your own risk is the key to long-term profitability.Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, TD, Scotiabank, PNC, Capital One, Fidelity, and 21 North American financial institutions are advancing a joint stablecoin project. Institutions from Europe and Asia-Pacific are also involved, but no individual names have been reported yet.
This initiative first emerged in October last year, when 10 banks were evaluating it; now the lineup has expanded to 21, indicating growing willingness to participate and that this is not a minor effort. The real highlight is the choice of approach—they plan to use a public blockchain rather than the private permissioned chains many banks previously preferred. If this direction is realized, it means traditional finance is no longer content with "building a chain behind closed doors" but aims to truly integrate into the public chain ecosystem and compete on the same infrastructure as existing stablecoins.
The timeline targets launching the USD stablecoin in the first half of 2027, with the euro stablecoin as the next priority, and future expansion to other G7 currencies is not ruled out. Application scenarios focus on wholesale settlement, institutional trading, cross-border payments, and retail payments.
Which public chain will be used has not been announced yet; historically, joint banking projects often progress slower than expected, and some have even been abandoned midway. Reaching consensus among 21 institutions is already challenging, and with more than two years left before implementation, there are many variables.
If this plan proceeds on schedule, do you think bank-backed stablecoins will capture market share from USDT and USDC, or will they open a new track focused on institutional and cross-border settlement?
#稳定币 #传统金融 History doesn't simply repeat, but it rhymes. Let me compare for you: every time during the US stock earnings season when tech stocks beat expectations, BTC follows with a rally.
Around this time last year, tech stocks beat earnings expectations, and BTC rose from over 70,000 to over 80,000. This year is earnings season again, Broadcom and Snowflake both beat expectations, BTC is now at 80,800. Doesn't the script look very similar?
I lost 200,000 USDT and am recovering now. Studying historical trends is my daily homework. Current support is at 80,500/80,000, resistance at 81,200/82,280.
Trading plan: open a position with 5,000 USDT, buy at 80,500, stop loss at 80,000, target 81,200, if it breaks through, watch 82,280. Never hold a position without a stop loss; just use historical patterns as a reference, don't blindly copy.
Earnings season funds are relatively warm, BTC is very likely to oscillate upward. Do you think history will repeat this time?
$BTC #财报观察员博通超预期Snowflake上调指引 $BTC reclaiming $80K matters more than the headline gain. $ETH is keeping pace, while $SOL lags slightly, suggesting this is a broad risk bid rather than a narrow rotation. Still, pressure at the long end of the Treasury curve argues for discipline. I would trust the move more if it holds through the next macro catalyst.
Not advice, just analysis.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $CL Nonfarm Night, Shorting Crude Oil: Every Weakness in Employment Data Fuels the Bears
Tonight, the global market's attention is once again focused on the US Nonfarm Payroll report. For crude oil traders, this data is not just a macroeconomic barometer but also the fuse that determines the short-term direction of oil prices. I choose to stand with the bears—not because oil prices have fallen enough already, but because the current fundamentals, technicals, and macro expectations are forming a rare downward resonance. The worse the nonfarm data, the stronger the logic for shorting crude oil; even if the data is acceptable, the Damocles sword of oversupply still hangs high.
1. Why is Nonfarm Payroll so Important to Oil Prices?
Crude oil is one of the most "macro" commodities. Unlike gold, which has safe-haven attributes, or agricultural products, which have weather premiums, oil prices essentially reflect global industrial activity. The Nonfarm Payroll report is the most direct gauge of the health of the US, the world's largest economy.
When nonfarm data is weak, the market interprets it as a slowdown in economic momentum, with industrial production and demand for travel under pressure, leading to downward revisions in oil demand expectations. At the same time, weak data strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially weakening the US dollar. But the key issue is: the support a weaker dollar provides to oil prices is often offset or even outweighed by the downward pressure from weaker demand. During recession-driven trading phases, it is common for oil prices and the dollar to fall together.
We are currently in this phase. The market has shifted from "inflation trades" to the threshold of "recession trades," and the nonfarm data is the hand pushing the door open. Initial jobless claims at 206,000 have exceeded expectations, continuing claims are rising, job vacancies are falling, and cracks in the labor market are widening. If tonight's nonfarm confirms this trend, crude oil bears will receive the most direct fuel.
2. Supply Side: OPEC+ Production Increases and Shale Oil Operating at High Levels
Poor employment data only tells the demand side story. What truly reassures shorts is the certainty on the supply side.
OPEC+ has already begun gradually restoring production, with some member countries overproducing ahead of schedule to balance their finances. Saudi Arabia talks about flexible adjustments but is effectively exchanging market share for oil prices. US shale oil production remains at historic highs; improved well completion efficiency means fewer rigs do not translate into lower output. Non-OPEC producers like Canada, Brazil, and Guyana continue to increase output, with global supply taps opening simultaneously.
Under this supply pattern, any rebound in oil prices triggered by macro sentiment will be quickly extinguished by ample supply. If nonfarm data performs poorly, it will only accelerate this process: downward revisions in demand expectations combined with continued loose supply will fully open the downside space for oil prices.
3. Technicals: Clear Distribution Pattern of Sharp Rises and Slow Declines
From the daily chart, WTI crude oil struggling below $70 mirrors Bitcoin's movement below $80,000: sharp rises followed by slow declines, with highs progressively lower and each rebound weaker than the last.
WTI has failed three times recently to break the $70 integer level; the 20-day moving average is pressing down, and prices have not effectively held above it. Brent faces strong resistance in the $73-$74 range, with every rebound to this area triggering a new round of selling. The monthly spread has shifted from spot premium to futures premium, a classic signal of oversupply and bearish forward outlook. The MACD on the daily level repeatedly shows bearish divergence, with rebound momentum continuously weakening.
Technicals have given a clear bias: a complete bearish structure with bulls lacking strong support. If nonfarm data aligns with the macro picture, a break below previous lows in oil prices is highly probable.
4. Three Nonfarm Scenarios and Response Strategies
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly misses expectations (new jobs below 120,000, unemployment rate rises above 4.4%). This is the most bearish scenario for oil prices. The market will quickly switch to recession trades, and oil prices may directly break below $68, even testing the $65 level. Bears can hold positions after the data release and add to positions if key support breaks.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm slightly weaker than expected (new jobs 130,000-160,000, unemployment around 4.3%). Oil prices may fall first then rebound, but the rebound will be limited. Supply-side pressure remains, so a rebound near $70 is still a shorting opportunity.
Scenario 3: Nonfarm better than expected. Oil prices may rebound in the short term but sustainability is doubtful. Given the current backdrop of ample supply and weak demand, a single data improvement is unlikely to change the medium-term trend. A rebound to the $70-$71 area is actually a better shorting position.
5. Risk Control: Bears Also Need Discipline
The biggest risk in shorting crude oil comes from sudden supply disruptions, such as escalations in Middle East geopolitical conflicts or unexpected additional production cuts by OPEC+. These events can trigger short squeezes in a very short time. Therefore, position sizes must be controlled within tolerable limits, and stop-loss levels must be clearly defined.
Specifically, if WTI rebounds near $70, short positions can be established with stop-loss above $71.5, target $68, and if broken, look down to $65. For Brent, short positions can be placed in the $73-$74 range, stop-loss above $75.5, target $70, and if broken, look down to $68.
Nonfarm is just the fuse; the trend is fundamental
Tonight's nonfarm data is important, but it is not the fundamental reason to short crude oil. The core logic for shorting lies in: continued loose supply, weakening demand, a complete bearish technical structure, and an unfavorable macro environment. Nonfarm data only accelerates this direction.
When the global economic engine slows, when OPEC+ opens the supply gates, and when spread structures point to oversupply, every rebound in oil prices is merely accumulating energy for the next decline. Tonight, let the data speak and the trend be realized. The patience of the bears will eventually be rewarded. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
I am Cige, Broadcom and Snowflake have both reported their results. The AI chain transmission is accelerating.
Broadcom's Q3 revenue and earnings both exceeded market expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue rising to $16.7 billion. Custom AI chips and networking businesses continue to benefit. However, the Q4 overall revenue guidance is slightly below analyst forecasts, and the stock price fell more than 6% in after-hours trading before narrowing losses. AI demand remains, but the expectations for the speed of performance delivery have increased. Broadcom's network chips are the core link for AI data center interconnection; the slightly lower guidance indicates that market expectations have outpaced the fundamentals.
Snowflake is another line. Q2 product revenue grew 37% year-over-year, AI-assisted coding tool CoCo's user accounts increased to 9,100, and the company raised its full-year revenue and margin guidance, with the stock price rising more than 21% in after-hours trading. AI demand is spreading from servers and chips to data clouds and software applications. Snowflake has validated that AI-driven data consumption is accelerating, not just compute power procurement.
Dell previously raised its full-year AI server revenue forecast, with demand for compute infrastructure continuing to grow. The AI chain transmission from chips to servers to networks to data clouds is happening, but the pace varies at each link. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; savor this. people look and this and annualize it ($4m * 365 = $1.46b) which is sizeable vs $HOOD's 2025 revs of $4.5b and $1.9b net income
but we all know we'd be lucky if this mania lasts a month...$HOOD #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
On Friday 9.4, the midday gold outlook was accurately predicted.
The suggested short position idea saw the market press down and fall as expected, smoothly reaching the target level.
During the high-level consolidation phase, judging resistance levels is especially critical.
Market fluctuations won’t always follow a one-sided trend; a pullback under pressure is a normal market rhythm.
Trading is all about preparing plans in advance, identifying key levels clearly, and patiently waiting for the market to validate the idea.
Don’t be fooled by brief rallies; stay calm in your judgment, and always prioritize risk control.Nonfarm Payroll Preview: 56,000 is the Consensus, but Today Might Not Be That Simple
At 20:30 tonight, the US August Nonfarm Payroll report will be released. The market consensus expects an increase of 56,000 jobs, with the previous value being -23,000 in July; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings are forecasted to rebound month-over-month from 0.1% to 0.3%.
Several signals are worth noting.
ADP's "small nonfarm" added only 38,000 jobs in August, the lowest since January, below the expected 48,000. The ISM services employment sub-index fell to 47.8, indicating continuous contraction. BMO points out there is a 71% probability that August nonfarm will be below expectations. Citi is the most pessimistic—forecasting only 20,000; Wells Fargo is relatively optimistic, seeing 80,000. The forecast range spans from -25,000 to +121,000, showing huge divergence.
The market currently prices in about a 60% chance of a rate hike in September. If nonfarm is below 30,000, rate hike expectations may cool significantly, giving risk assets short-term relief; if above 80,000, hawkish logic strengthens, and BTC and ETH may retest previous lows.
Volatility will be high before and after the data release; wait for the outcome before making moves, don't bet on direction.
For reference only, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The U.S. announced that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29 was 206,000, revised from the previous 204,000, slightly above the market expectation of 205,000; the four-week average rose to 207,250, and continuing claims also increased to 1,779,000.
The data slightly exceeded expectations, creating short-term bearish pressure on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, while benefiting gold and crypto assets, though the overall impact is limited. Although the figures edged higher, 206,000 remains at a historically low level, indicating that there has been no large-scale layoffs by companies. It is worth noting the rise in continuing claims, reflecting a slowdown in the pace of reemployment for the unemployed.
The current employment market is characterized by layoffs not spiraling out of control, but a clear contraction in hiring activity, representing a gradual cooling. This data also provides a preliminary reference for tonight's nonfarm payroll report.
The market will focus on the August nonfarm payroll performance. If the nonfarm payrolls significantly miss expectations and the unemployment rate rises, it will further strengthen expectations for a dovish Fed, potentially boosting BTC, ETH, and gold, while putting pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields; conversely, if nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, the market will reprice the possibility of higher interest rates or even rate hikes, and risk assets will face renewed pressure. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 The Solana chain exploded, while ETH's L2 is shutting down
Two extremes on both sides:
Circle minted $11B USDC on Solana in August, with Solana's share of total USDC supply surpassing 10% for the first time. On Backpack, there are US stock perpetuals, and Jupiter is doing cross-chain deposits. Solana's payment and trading narrative is becoming more and more solid.
On the other hand, ETH's L2 Silicon announced it will shut down by the end of the year, with $9.75M assets still on-chain not withdrawn; the deadline is 12/31.
One is competing for real usage, the other is clearing out existing stock—the ecosystem divergence is now a real battle.
How much market share can Solana snatch from Ethereum (ETH)? I bet it will take the majority in payments and high-frequency scenarios.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 The Dow rose 624 points overnight; I won't chase the US stock rebound before tonight's non-farm payrolls.
On Thursday, the three major indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 1.4% and the S&P up about 1.1%.
Waller said: If inflation continues to cool, he tends to hold steady in September.
The probability of a rate hike dropped from over 60% to around 50%, and US Treasury yields also fell accordingly.
I think this is more like a rebound from easing expectations, not confirmation of a new trend.
Non-farm payrolls will be released at 20:30 Beijing time, with consensus around 50,000 to 60,000. If the data is strong, this rally might immediately reverse.
I will wait until after the non-farm payrolls to see if the Nasdaq can hold its ground before deciding whether to follow.
Invalidation conditions: If non-farm payrolls are much stronger than expected, or if the rate hike probability jumps back above 60%, this wait-and-see logic becomes void.
Do you cash out some first, or hold until after the non-farm payrolls?
#Waller: August inflation decides September rate hike #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $NVDA $TSLA $BTCNon-farm payroll data drops tomorrow, and both $BTC and $ETH have already surged, pushing sentiment higher.
Markets often price expectations in before the actual release, so we could see another short rally when the data hits.
I’m watching for a potential short at the highs after the release. The bigger macro catalyst comes later this month, and once the NFP momentum fades, volatility and downside pressure could return.ZEC is at 970 USD, are you chasing it?
It has risen 20 times, surged to a new high of 979.76, with a market cap of 16 billion, just turned into the first US privacy coin ETF by Grayscale — but just now, the price is stuck at 970, the daily RSI soared to 78 indicating overbought, perpetual funding rates remain high, bulls and bears have been deadlocked at the 980 level for two hours. Will this throttle continue to push past 1000+, or will it brake back to 900 first?
First thing: The ETF is here, but the positive news has already been priced in between 800-980
Grayscale converted the Zcash Trust into the first US spot ZEC ETF (ZCSH), launching on August 25. The compliant entry is open, and Grayscale's research report positions ZEC as "financial privacy in the AI surveillance era," even discussing its potential to take a share from BTC.
Retail investors always think they should buy after good news, but institutions usually sell to you after the good news is out.
Second thing: Ironwood fixed the vulnerability, but "trust repair" is a slow process
Ironwood launched on July 28, the old pool was archived, and funds migrated to the new shielded pool, restoring supply verifiability.
The June vulnerability caused many to doubt Zcash's "mathematical security" overnight. Although the team proved they could fix it, the "trust deficit" won't fully recover from a single upgrade. This is also why ZEC didn't surge above 1000 after the ETF launch — the market is still waiting for more confirmation signals.
Third thing: While you watch the candlesticks, whales are eyeing September 14
NU7 token holders' voting ends on September 14. Topics include issuance smoothing, whether to keep the halving schedule, block time adjustments, etc. This won't immediately change consensus but is a watershed for the long-term narrative.
More importantly — Cypherpunk, a Nasdaq-listed company, continues accumulating coins aiming for about 5% of total supply and has also purchased mining power. While you're hesitating at 970 whether to chase, they have been buying all the way up from 400, 500, 600, now holding a base position waiting for the vote results.
What do the candlesticks tell you?
Daily RSI: 73-78, overbought. After consecutive big green candles, there are upper shadows/high-level oscillations, typical profit-taking. Price is far above EMA20 (750) and EMA50 (640), with a large deviation.
979.76 is today's high, 933 is the low — 970 is right in the middle, neither up nor down.
Support: 930-940 (today's low), 800-850 (previous breakout platform, healthy pullback zone)
Resistance: 975-980 (short-term ATH), 1000 (psychological round number)
On the 4-hour chart, price is already blocked near the upper boundary of the ascending channel. With high perpetual funding rates and large open interest, pushing to 980 can easily trigger a long squeeze.
In short: Weekly is bullish, daily is overbought, hourly is in distribution zone. This is not a 400-600 accumulation zone, but a 900+ management zone.
How to play?
For those already holding longs:
Reduce position by 30%-50% at 970-980 to lock in profits. Move stop loss up to 930, if broken look to 850.
For those with no position wanting to go long:
Don't chase. Wait for an aggressive pullback to 900-930, stop loss at 880, target retest 980-1000. Or wait for a healthy pullback at 800-850 (low volume), stop loss 760, target 1000/1150.
For those wanting to short for a trade:
Watch for two failed attempts to break 975-1000 (long upper shadows, volume stagnation), short lightly, first target 930, second 850. If it holds above 1000, stop loss immediately and admit the mistake.
Zcash rose from tens to nearly 1000, 20 times increase, and you're still asking "can I still buy" — it means you missed the best entry and now want to use courage to make up for laziness.
ZEC at 970 can still rise, but the risk-reward ratio has changed. At this level, discipline is more important than direction, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits.
Are you fully invested waiting for 1000, or reducing position waiting for a pullback?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Tonight's non-farm payroll data is extremely important.
If it falls below expectations and stays between 20,000 and 40,000, it will basically be a period of adjustment and consolidation.
If it stays around 10,000, the market will surge.
If it greatly exceeds expectations and reaches 80,000, then the hawkish stance from Waller will immediately be reversed by a bullish candlestick!
Why suddenly release a dovish comment the day before the data? If the data were really good, he wouldn't need to say anything and the market would definitely rise. Could it be that the data isn't very good, and they need to release dovish comments in advance to soften the market?#沃勒：August inflation will decide whether to raise rates in September
Waller's trump card has already been revealed.
The path is now very clear—tonight's nonfarm payrolls, next week's CPI, and the following week's FOMC meeting, these three milestones will sequentially unfold to finally determine the outcome.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are expected at 56,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. If nonfarm payrolls weaken, rate hike expectations will continue to cool; if nonfarm exceeds expectations, the 50% chance of a rate hike could bounce back at any time. But the real decisive factor is next Wednesday's August CPI and PPI, which is what Waller referred to as "largely dependent on."
The current 50.2% probability does not mean all bad news is out or all good news has arrived; it just tells you—it's time to start preparing, but not yet time to act.
For the crypto space, short-term cooling of rate hike expectations, falling US Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar provide a breather window for Bitcoin, but only a breather. In the medium term, the September 15 CLARITY Act vote is the real structural turning point, having a greater impact than the rate hike itself. The Fed's decision to raise rates affects short-term sentiment, while the CLARITY Act determines the regulatory framework and whether institutional funds can enter on a large scale; these two are not on the same level.
My thought is simple: it's best not to mess around during this period. Before these three milestones—from tonight's nonfarm payrolls to next week's CPI—are completed, guessing the direction is meaningless. Wait for the data to land and the direction to be confirmed before taking action; missing a few points is not a problem.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH $BZ Brent crude oil fluctuated at a high level today (September 4), closing at $95.52 per barrel, down slightly by 11 cents, a decrease of 0.12%. The cumulative increase for the week is about 7%, potentially marking the largest weekly gain since July. The benchmark price at the beginning of the month was $88.10 per barrel, with a monthly increase exceeding 8%.
Geopolitics is the core driver of this surge. On September 1, the US military launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran, which promptly retaliated, escalating direct military confrontation between the two sides. The Brent front-month price has steadily risen from a phase low near $70 per barrel to $95. The Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, and Middle East crude oil exports (previously about 6-7 million barrels per day) continue to be suppressed.
Institutional views are sharply divided: ANZ Bank raised its short-term forecast to $95 per barrel, citing rapidly narrowing supply buffers; Piper Sandler upgraded its second-half forecast to $90 per barrel and unusually admitted it "may still be underestimated"; Citibank maintains a Q4 forecast of $70 per barrel, believing that if the strait reopens, it will trigger a larger-scale supply glut.
Technically, Investing.com’s composite indicator gives a "sell" signal, with the RSI(14) at 46.6, indicating neutrality. Intraday focus is on the $92-$98 per barrel range. Short-term geopolitical risk premiums remain high, but if conflicts ease, the risk of a high-level pullback will simultaneously increase.
Risk warning: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC $ETH $ZEC For a long time, the most widely circulated story in the crypto world was that Bitcoin is "digital gold." Many believed Bitcoin could fight inflation and hedge geopolitical risks, and in times of crisis, it could become a safe haven for capital like gold. But from last year's high of $126,000, it pulled back all the way to a low of just over $60,000, and only recently stabilized around $80,000. This intense roller coaster has pushed the "digital gold" narrative to the test of reality. We must first distinguish one thing: theoretical narratives and real market behavior are two different things. Bitcoin's code design, total supply of 21 million coins, and decentralization attributes do indeed have the potential to become a store of value at its core, which is the origin of the "digital gold" story. But attributes are one thing; the reality of the market voting with its feet is another. The actual market performance has repeatedly given the answer: when macro crises or geopolitical conflicts erupt, funds first flow into gold, US Treasuries, and the US dollar, while Bitcoin often falls in sync with Nasdaq tech stocks, becoming a high-risk asset to be sold off. The market situation from last year to this year is the most direct comparison: tense geopolitical tensions, rising global uncertainty, gold ETFs continuously increasing holdings, gold repeatedly hitting new all-time highs; while Bitcoin has experienced a massive drawdown close to halving. Facing uncertainty, funds choose gold as a safe haven but are selling Bitcoin. This shows that in times of crisis, Bitcoin has not shown any safe-haven riskEveryone is looking at the same historical data: $BTC has never failed that every time August closes green, the following September is all red. It sounds scary, but two things to note: First, there are only four data points like this in Bitcoin's history, so the sample size is very small; second, after those red Septembers, the following Octobers were all green, and some Octobers were very, very green. So while everyone is talking about seasonality and cautiously entering September, I actually see this as a contrarian opportunity—bullish on September, this is the real contrarian opinion now. My September bull case: $BTC returns to 100,000. Do you think September will close green or red? **Sun Yuchen said that people in 2036 will no longer use things from 2016, and the same goes for Douyin**
Douyin was founded in 2016 and reached 1 billion daily active users in ten years. But 2026 is precisely its peak and also the moment when the next platform begins to emerge. Why? Because the technology cycle is a generation every ten years. In 2016, Douyin looked rough and imitative, but it seized the technological dividend of 4G + short videos. In 2026, AI Agents, spatial computing, and brain-computer interfaces are maturing. The new applications that look rough and niche now are the "Douyin" of 2036. The same applies to the crypto world: in 2016, BTC was sold on Taobao for 3.5 yuan with no buyers; in 2026, it’s $80,000. Don’t compete in mature tracks; ask who will take over the next decade. BTC/ETH are the underlying protocols of the AI era. They look rough now, but looking back in ten years, they will be the Douyin of 2016.【Crypto Circle Script】
#沃勒：August inflation will decide whether to raise rates in September
I am Script Brother, and now the market is back to the old question: will there be a rate hike in September? The key depends on whether inflation or employment softens first.
The signal from Waller's speech this time is relatively clear. If August inflation continues to cool down, he tends to maintain the current interest rate level. But if the data strengthens again, he does not rule out supporting a rate hike. In other words, the Federal Reserve is not directionless now; it is waiting for the last few sets of data to confirm.
Currently, employment data has shown signs of cooling but has not deteriorated significantly. Meanwhile, inflation has dropped quite a bit from its peak but is still some distance from the 2% target. So the market is very conflicted now, with the probability of a rate hike or no hike almost fifty-fifty.
For the US stock market, the core is how the market interprets it. If the data continues to support rate cut expectations, risk assets may continue to benefit. But if inflation rises again, US Treasury yields will increase, and US stock valuations will come under pressure.
It's the same for the crypto circle. The biggest catalyst for BTC now is not any single piece of news but liquidity expectations. If the market believes again in a rate cut in September, the US dollar will weaken, risk appetite will rise, and BTC has a chance to continue rallying. Conversely, if rate hikes heat up again, short-term pressure will return.
Don't guess whether there will definitely be a rate hike or not in September. The market is waiting for the non-farm payroll and CPI to give the answer. In the next few days, a single inflation data point may decide BTC's next move.
Do you think there will be a rate cut in September, or will the Federal Reserve continue to hold a tough stance? Let's chat in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SOL $CORE Bank Institutional Edition Launched: Got the Entry Ticket, Why Haven't Institutions Entered Yet?
CORE Bank Institutional Edition is officially launched.
In an instant, community sentiment soared: compliance upgrade, financial integration, bank onboarding, institutional capital inflow... all kinds of tenfold narratives flying everywhere.
But I want to say the most honest, clearest, and most heartfelt words:
The launch of the institutional edition only means obtaining the entry ticket to traditional finance.
It does not mean guests will immediately arrive, nor does it mean the market will instantly take off.
1. What exactly does this launch solve?
The newly launched bank institutional edition node system is a key step for the CORE ecosystem to move from a "retail public chain" to a "compliant financial public chain."
It fills the biggest previous gaps: institutions dared not enter, capital dared not come, compliance was not up to standard.
The new version fully opens three major institutional-level capabilities:
1) Bank-level custody & audit traceability system
Meets the accounting audit, risk traceability, and compliance ledger needs of licensed financial institutions, asset managers, and custodian banks.
The ordinary retail version can never meet this standard.
2) Institution-exclusive BTC staking channel
Traditional banks have a large amount of idle BTC and previously had no compliant interest-earning channels, so they did not dare to participate in public chain staking.
Now institutions can participate in BTC hash staking in batches, compliantly and controllably, to earn on-chain yields.
3) Hardened validator nodes + risk interception mechanism
Security risk control was redone for this reward loophole incident to prevent node over-rewards, malicious minting, and abnormal yield overflow,
thoroughly solving the "underlying insecurity" issue that institutions worry about most.
In short: the project team has fully fixed the "door, venue, security, and procedures" for receiving major clients.
This is a solid ecological upgrade, narrative upgrade, and compliance upgrade.
2. Why say: launch ≠ capital inflow?
Many retail investors have the biggest misconception:
Good news = price surge
Institutional edition launch = banks immediately enter
The real financial logic is completely opposite.
1) Institutions are extremely grudging and cautious
A few days ago, CORE just experienced a major reward logic loophole incident.
Although it has been hard-forked to fix, 150 million excess tokens destroyed, and loopholes blocked.
But in the eyes of institutions:
Systemic risk occurred = absolutely no heavy positions in the short term.
Institutional capital fears not slowness but crashes.
The newly fixed system will be observed for stability over a long period; institutions will not rush in to catch the falling knife.
2) Product launch is just "0 to 1"
Institutional edition launch = tools are ready.
Institutional cooperation, bank onboarding, and capital landing are "1 to 100."
Tools can be released anytime,
but real compliance audits, institutional due diligence, risk control filings, and business integration take months or quarters.
Today's good news is long-term value, not immediate realization.
3) The biggest current contradiction: good news is prematurely priced in
The entire community and external bloggers have already pumped up the "institutional good news" sentiment prematurely.
Capital markets always follow one iron rule:
Once expectations are fully priced in, good news realization is just fulfillment.
The more hyped the good news, the harder it is to surge in the short term.
3. Short-term market does not rely on institutions at all
Everyone please face reality:
The institutional edition is a long-term story.
Today's market depends on chips + nonfarm payroll.
Two major super variables today:
1) 17:00 full deposit and withdrawal channels open
Staked locked chips are officially unlocked; real long-short game begins.
Previous rise was a "distorted market without selling pressure."
After today, it’s the real market.
2) Heavy nonfarm payroll data released tonight
The overall market decides the fate of all small coins.
No matter how good the ecosystem news is, it cannot withstand systemic market fluctuations.
Long-term look at institutional narratives, short-term look at chip selling pressure.
Don’t mistake tomorrow’s meal for today’s dish.
4. The most rational positioning: CORE is now in a "repair and construction period"
- Loophole fixed ✅
- Excess tokens destroyed ✅
- Node security upgraded ✅
- Institutional compliance system completed ✅
Risks cleared, ecosystem improved, narrative reshaped
But:
Trust needs repair, chips need turnover, institutions need observation, the market needs confirmation.
This is bottom repair, not bull market acceleration.
5. Final summary
The launch of CORE Bank Institutional Edition is an epic long-term positive.
It represents the project completely shedding the "niche grassroots public chain" label and officially connecting with the traditional financial system.
But in the short term:
Having the entry ticket ≠ guests immediately arriving
Fixing the foundation ≠ immediately building the tower
Good news realization ≠ immediate surge
The real market always waits for:
Clean chips, end of institutional observation period, stable market trend.
Now is just the beginning of new life, not the explosive end.
Interaction: How soon do you think institutional capital will truly settle in CORE?🚨 BTC just broke $80,000 — but here’s the part most people are missing.
This rally didn’t start with an ETF explosion, a whale announcement, or some huge crypto headline.
It started with one statement from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
BTC jumped from around $77,300 to above $80,500, briefly touching $81,600 — roughly a 5% move in one day.
And there’s one number you should remember: 12 percentage points.
#DailyOrbit An inflation report is enough to shake up the entire market. Federal Reserve official Waller recently made a public statement, directly handing the answer to the upcoming August inflation data on whether to raise rates in September. As soon as the news broke, the market's rate hike probability instantly recaught, with many people already betting on the direction in advance. Waller's stance is very clear: if August inflation continues to decline and approaches the 2% target, he supports keeping rates unchanged; but as soon as inflation data heats up again, even if only a slight rebound, he will lean toward rate hikes and tightening policy. In other words, a CPI can influence the direction of the September policy meeting's vote. A trader around me subjectively predicted that inflation would definitely cool after Waller's speech, so he positioned ahead and bet on no rate hikes in September. In his view, continued decline in inflation is inevitable, and the market should rise accordingly. But he overlooks one thing: expectations do not equal results. The market has already priced in optimism about "cooling inflation" in price. Two outcomes are right in front of us: if inflation weakens as expected and expectations are met, the market may receive a positive feedback; But if the data is unexpectedly hot and rate hike expectations rise rapidly, the market will immediately experience a sharp correction, and many positions placed in advance will be impacted. Many people make the same mistake: treating officials' speeches as definite conclusions and using them directly as basis for opening positions. Officials' statements are conditioned reflexes of data, not fixed results. Waller himself maintains a dual stance; if the data differs, the stance will reverse. Don't jump to conclusions about data in advance, and certainly not$SPCX Actually, there wasn't much positive news for SPCX yesterday; it was purely an emotional rally driven by the decline in the Fed's rate hike expectations. If tonight's non-farm payrolls are positive, I expect a short-term rise to 155-160, but the market has already priced in the no rate hike expectation, making it more likely for positive news to be realized. Coupled with unlocking pressure, it might instead drop to 145-140-130. Of course, if even this macro positive news can't effectively hold above 150, I tend to expect a fall back to 135, or even 125. $BTC $ETH #Bitcoin Breaks $80,000 Again
BTC has once again surpassed $80,000. Market expectations for further Fed rate hikes have cooled, and U.S. Treasury yields have declined, providing macro support for this rebound. After Waller's speech, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from over 70% to 50.2%, Treasury yields fell across the board, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed back into risk assets.
However, market views are clearly divided. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua believes the bull market trend has started, with around $86,000 as the next resistance level. Jiang Zhuoer reduced his entire BTC position near $82,050, citing a risk of pullback after ETF funds weaken. In August, U.S. spot BTC ETFs maintained net inflows overall, but at the beginning of September, funds began fluctuating in both directions, and institutional buying has yet to form continuous momentum.
Bitwise data shows the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen to its highest level since 2020, supporting the narrative of BTC as a hedge against currency depreciation. BTC is shifting from a risk asset to a currency depreciation hedge asset, a structural change more significant than short-term price fluctuations.
The current core issue is whether institutional funds linked with gold can support BTC in absorbing sell orders around $80,000 to $82,500. If BTC can hold above $82,000 with volume, the direction will open up. If it repeatedly spikes and falls back, $82,000 may form a short-term top. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Think about it carefully. $BTC $ETH $SOL The crypto market is moving higher today — but the futures data is more interesting than the green candles. BTC is around $81K, while ETH is near $2.5K and SOL around $104. BTC has gained roughly 4.8% recently, yet futures/perpetual open interest fell about 1.8% over the week. That disconnect matters. Usually, a sharp rally with aggressive OI expansion makes me cautious about a crowded long trade. This time, leverage hasn't expanded at the same pace. But there’s another test ahead: U.S. macro rThis is not a chasing phase but a slow bull climbing phase within a consolidation; whoever hits the wrong rhythm is the first to be left behind. Have you noticed that every time a big influencer calls a bull market, the market actually shakes a bit first? Today, a big institutional expert declared: the Bitcoin bear market is completely over, the bull market officially begins, the rebound logic is smooth, and the upper level is strongly pushed down at $86,000. The core basis is that both daily and weekly moving averages have been restored and stabilized, the cycle bottom is fully consolidated, and low-level chips are fully locked, making a deep drop unlikely. In his view, short-term corrections are healthy shakeouts without changing the overall upward structure. I respect this directional judgment, but as someone who watches daily, what matters more to me is rhythm rather than slogans. Why is now not the time to blindly chase highs? First, look at the market structure. The $86,000 level is not ordinary resistance; above it, a large number of trapped and profit-taking positions have accumulated, serving as a psychological barrier for institutions. When the price approaches here, selling pressure will surge, so there is a high probability of surges and pullbacks, repeated oscillations. If it holds firm, it means a real breakout; if not, it means a stage top. The bullish and bearish tug-of-war at this level will be fierce. Now let's look at the time window. With the nonfarm payroll data and FOMC meeting approaching, the destructive power of macro fluctuations should not be underestimated. Even if the daily chart structure is bullish, short-term prices will still be led by the data by the nose, and sudden spikes and shakeouts will become the norm. The big players look at the trend, while we retail investors look at survival; these two operate with completely different logics. Finally, let's look at the strength of the sector. This rebound is not a broad-based rally; capital has clear preferencesYesterday, the expectation of a rate cut decreased, and the entire market was celebrating wildly. So why did gold remain silent and even decline today? Is the correlation between BTC and gold drifting further apart?
First, looking at the price, $XAUT is currently around 4457.9 USDT. Although it has rebounded significantly from around 4280 a few days ago, it is still noticeably below the previous high of 4679.8. Gold's performance today is indeed not as eye-catching as BTC. Meanwhile, BTC has retaken the 81,000 USD level, and market risk appetite has clearly warmed up.
But there is actually a misconception here: a change in rate cut expectations does not necessarily mean gold will surge immediately.
After Fed's Waller released a dovish signal yesterday, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from about 63% the day before to nearly 50%. The dollar and US Treasury yields fell back, which theoretically is positive for gold.
The problem is that gold has already experienced a significant rise recently, and now the market's focus has shifted to today's US non-farm payroll data. If employment data exceeds expectations, the possibility of the Fed maintaining or even raising rates again will increase, putting pressure on gold.
As for the relationship between BTC and gold, I actually feel it is not drifting further apart; in fact, from a medium to long-term data perspective, the correlation is strengthening. Recent data shows the 90-day correlation coefficient between the two has risen to about 0.55, which is a relatively high level in recent years. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
$XAU Verification: True. On September 1st at the G20 Innovation Ministers' meeting, Musk indeed said, "By 2027, AI chips will face at least a 15GW power shortfall." The original statement was that chip capacity grows 40-50% annually, while power growth is only 10-20%, with the fast curve overwhelming the slow curve. He also mentioned that Google and Anthropic have rented computing power from SpaceX because SpaceX built its own power plant.
Impact on holdings: AI consumes electricity → countries print money to build power plants → liquidity continues to increase → BTC/gold continue to benefit. If you are fully invested in BTC/ETH/SOL, you are effectively holding the settlement layer for the AI era. Musk's remarks this time offer no new insights; they repeat angles from previous AI outages and G20 speeches. It is not recommended to write more content on the same topic, as it will flood the market and devalue the message.**What did Justin Sun do after acquiring Huobi? HT plunged 90% in 10 minutes**
In 2023, Justin Sun acquired Huobi (now HTX) from Li Lin. To recover the acquisition funds, he targeted large HT token holders for liquidation. HT plummeted from $4.80 to $0.31 within 6-10 minutes, a drop of over 90%, then quickly rebounded. Tens of thousands of users suffered losses, with one Taiwanese user losing $25 million. Afterwards, Justin Sun promised compensation, but only small accounts received money; large holders who lost over $100,000 got nothing. This is why I only deal with BTC/ETH/SOL—tokens controlled by whales are just their cash machines.最近市场有个细节挺值得关注：BTC兑黄金比率重新走强，一枚比特币目前大约可以换18盎司左右的黄金，已经来到今年1月以来的高位。 很多人只盯着BTC有没有突破8万美元，但我觉得现在更应该看看BTC和黄金之间的相对强弱。 为什么？ 因为黄金代表的是传统资金的避险逻辑，而BTC更多代表风险资产、流动性以及新一代“数字黄金”的叙事。 当黄金上涨、BTC不动，说明资金明显更喜欢避险；但如果黄金上涨的同时，BTC涨得更快，那么情况就不一样了——这意味着市场开始愿意给BTC更高的风险溢价。 今年其实已经出现过明显的切换。5月份BTC兑黄金的阶段性上涨趋势就曾经被打破，当时黄金ETF获得资金流入，而BTC相关基金出现资金流出，市场明显偏向传统避险资产。 现在重新走强，说明资金风险偏好正在修复。 更关键的是，宏观环境也在发生变化。 美联储政策预期降温、美债收益率回落，再加上美元走弱，给风险资产提供了一定喘息空间。欧易当前话题数据显示，BTC一度突破8.2万美元附近，而市场真正的压力区域已经逐渐上移到8.3万—8.6万美元。 但我这里必须泼一盆冷水： BTC兑黄金比率走强，不等于BTC马上开启主升浪。 现Last night, Bitcoin surged over 5% at one point, climbing back above $80,000. The direct catalyst was the dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Waller: if upcoming inflation data continues to cool, he leans toward keeping rates unchanged at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The market immediately lowered its expectations for a September rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk asset sentiment improved accordingly. It's worth noting that Waller was relatively hawkish during his Jackson Hole speech, and the market had previously pushed the probability of a September rate hike higher.
Last night's rally felt more like a continuation on top of the existing rebound, combined with easing rate hike expectations. Going forward, we still need to watch Friday's nonfarm payrolls and the September 11 CPI; if the data heats up again, rate hike expectations could reverse at any time.
The short BTC position I gave yesterday has already hit stop loss; the short Ethereum position hasn't hit stop loss yet and is still being held. The stop loss can be moved down to 2530. I'll wait for the nonfarm payrolls tonight to see the situation before giving new orders.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
$BTC $ETH BTC has returned to 80,000, but don't rush to pop the champagne yet. The "engine" driving this rally is short liquidations — in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $2.01 billion liquidated, with shorts accounting for $1.7 billion, over 80%. Simply put, it was short covering that "lifted" the price, not new incremental funds competing to buy. Funds are indeed flowing back (BTC net inflow of $3.42 billion), but replenished funds and new funds are two different things. Plus, with tonight's non-farm payrolls and the September rate hike probability still hovering around 60%, the interest rate scale hasn't loosened. My view: the market is biased bullish, but the quality remains to be verified. A rebound and a reversal are two different things. Let's first see if 81,520 can be passed with volume before making further judgments. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Every first Friday night of every month, the entire crypto world enters a collective wait. Everyone stares at their screens, waiting for the U.S. nonfarm payroll data to be released. Insiders, whether trading spot or futures, treat this employment report as a switch for short-term market trends. Many people wonder: how can employment data from across the ocean influence the entire crypto market for Bitcoin and Ethereum? Nonfarm payrolls themselves are not directly targeted at the crypto market; their real power lies in reshaping market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates. The Fed's two main tasks are stabilizing inflation and ensuring full employment. The three core indicators in the nonfarm payroll report—new jobs, unemployment rate, and average wage growth—are the Fed's most important indicators for observing the economy. The transmission chain is very clear: → nonfarm payrolls are realized→ the market repricing interest rate hikes and cut probabilities volatility in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index→ global risk asset valuations shift, ultimately transmitting to Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. Simply put, nonfarm payrolls themselves are not important; the real killer move is the change in interest rate expectations. If nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations, new jobs surge, and wage growth rises. This means the U.S. labor market remains hot, household incomes keep rising, consumption is resilient, and inflation is hard to bring back quickly. The market will start trading: high interest rates will persist longer, and rates may even resume. This will lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. For high-risk assets like Bitcoin, risk-free yields rise, and holding crypto assets is a key factor