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Brothers, $SNDK is oscillating repeatedly around 1500, with chips exchanging hands. Just checked the closing data, SNDK closed at $1,554.99, slightly up 0.10%, with an intraday low of $1,511 and a high of $1,576.8. The $1,570 reported by a brother was already a relatively high position during the day, closing back near $1,555. What is happening in the market? The liquidity pulse brought by the last MSCI inclusion has faded, and short-term funds are increasingly divided. The 4-hour volume is moderately contracting, bulls and bears are tugging between 1500-1570, with the lower support zone repeatedly tested, which is a normal pullback confirmation. Analysts regard 1500-1530 as a key support zone, waiting for stabilization to buy on dips. Fundamentals remain unchanged. Fiscal year 2026 revenue is $20.25 billion, net profit margin 56.46%, with a year-to-date increase still over 554%. The analyst 1-year average target price is $2,125, about 36% higher than the current price. Trading advice: If it stabilizes near the 1500-1530 pullback, you can lightly try going long, with a stop loss at $1,480 and a target of $1,580-1,600. Keep position light and strictly stop loss. Let's discuss in the comments, do you dare to catch the $1,500-1,530 range this time?👇 #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Crypto ETF funds show divergence, institutions refocus on $BTC The latest fund flows for US spot crypto ETFs show a clear divergence. On Wednesday, the Bitcoin spot ETF regained fund attention with a single-day net inflow of about $101 million, ending the previous continuous outflows. Among them, BlackRock IBIT contributed about $115 million, becoming the main source of funds. In contrast, Ethereum and XRP spot ETFs both turned to net outflows. Ethereum had attracted funds for 12 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative inflow of about $1.62 billion, but the latest single-day outflow was about $48.08 million. XRP also ended 11 consecutive days of net inflows, with a single-day outflow of about $7.2 million. Solana ETF also saw fund withdrawals. Overall, this does not mean institutions are fully exiting the crypto market; it looks more like a phase of funds refocusing on Bitcoin. Facing market volatility and changes in interest rate expectations, Bitcoin, with stronger liquidity and higher market recognition, remains the institutional priority. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of about $3.52 billion in August, maintaining a strong capital base. $ETH $SOL #比特币再破80000美元 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 🚨 Violent Short Squeeze, But Don’t Ignore the Risks $BTC surged from $76,204 to $81,770, while $ETH jumped from $2,355 to $2,530. The explosive green candles have boosted bullish sentiment—but this move appears largely driven by short covering rather than fresh capital inflows. 📈 Both assets are now approaching key resistance and short-term indicators look overbought. ⚠️ BTC resistance: $81,544–$81,770 | Support: ~$79,594 ⚠️ ETH resistance: $2,518–$2,530 | Key support below Crypto Circle Midday Brief｜2026-09-04 #Waller: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September Market @币圈超短王马大帅 BTC surged to 82000 then pulled back to around 81100; resistance at 82200, support at 79600. ETH rose to around 2510. Broad market rally, meme sector heat rebounds, greed index at 65. Contracts 18.3 billion USD liquidated across the network in 24 hours, short stop-losses pushing the rise; BTC ETF saw slight net inflows, ETH ETF funds outflowing, high-level longs starting to take profits. Macro & Industry Fed officials lean dovish, expectations for a September rate hike cool down; US stocks closed higher boosting risk assets. Robinhood chain MEME coin heavily speculated, Japanese listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings show increased unrealized gains. Brief commentary: After a short-term rapid rebound, a pullback is needed; avoid chasing highs, wait for pullback confirmation to observe direction. $ZEC is going crazy! It has risen all the way from over 200. In June this year, there was a vulnerability that caused the price to be halved. At the end of July, the Ironwood upgrade was launched, basically plugging the loopholes. Old projects that survive often become stronger. Previously, institutions wanting to buy ZEC had to go to exchanges and manage wallets themselves. Now Grayscale has converted the old trust into the first ZEC spot ETF, which can be bought with a regular brokerage account. The institutional channel is open. If ZEC can capture 2% of Bitcoin's market cap, the price could reach around $1600. This is not a guarantee, but a reference they give to the market. #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 🚨【News｜Crypto market capital rotation accelerates, core asset allocation regains attention】 When the market truly strengthens, the most important thing is not necessarily to find the fastest rising coins, but to ensure you are not left behind when the market narrative shifts. I used to think a strong portfolio meant constantly chasing the fastest appreciating assets. Later, I realized that a truly resilient portfolio remains competitive even after market styles change. Currently, my core holdings lean towards: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP They are not for chasing daily hot trends but serve as long-term base positions, waiting for liquidity to return to the crypto market. As for other positions, they are dynamically adjusted according to market narratives: 🔥 Strengthen sectors and leaders with sustained capital inflows 📉 Reduce assets that consistently lag and lack catalysts 🔄 Rotate timely as capital direction changes My understanding is simple: Core assets are the anchor, trend assets are the sails, and capital flow determines the course. You don’t need to catch every rally, nor must you bet on every hot trend. What truly matters is having enough positions and flexibility to follow the next phase of opportunities when market capital starts to change direction. #CryptoNews #BTC #ETH #SOL #XRP #MarketRotation #CryptoCrypto Circle Midday Brief｜2026-09-04 #Waller: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September Market @币圈超短王马大帅 BTC surged to 82000 then pulled back to around 81100; resistance at 82200, support at 79600. ETH rose to around 2510. Broad market rally, meme sector heat rebounds, greed index at 65. Contracts 18.3 billion USD liquidated across the network in 24 hours, short stop-losses pushing the rise; BTC ETF saw slight net inflows, ETH ETF funds outflowing, high-level longs starting to take profits. Macro & Industry Fed officials lean dovish, expectations for a September rate hike cool down; US stocks closed higher boosting risk assets. Robinhood chain MEME coin heavily speculated, Japanese listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings show increased unrealized gains. Brief commentary: After a short-term rapid rebound, a pullback is needed; avoid chasing highs, wait for pullback confirmation to observe direction. Trivia: The fees earned by Arbitrum's own network are already far less than what it earns by licensing its technology to Robinhood. Arbitrum has accumulated over $2.3 million in fee shares from the Robinhood Chain, with 80% of that—over $1.8 million—flowing into the Arbitrum DAO. On the latest single day, Arbitrum earned about $450,000 in daily fees from the Robinhood Chain, with the DAO receiving nearly $360,000. Meanwhile, the Arbitrum network itself only generated about $16,600 in daily fees, totaling $375,000 over the past 30 days. A chain that has been online for just over two months is already giving the DAO nearly more money in a single day than the Arbitrum mainnet earns in a month.CORE ISN’T FOR GETTING RICH FAST — IT KEEPS YOU IN THE GAME I thought a strong portfolio meant holding coins that were pumping. Then I realized: a strong portfolio survives when the market changes its story. My core is $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP — not to chase pumps, but to stay positioned when liquidity returns. The rest rotates with narratives: strengthen leaders, reduce laggards. Core is the anchor. Trend is the sail. I don’t need every wave — just flexibility when capital changes direction.Foreign media reports that after Solana recently broke above the $103 level, market focus has shifted to two higher dense trading zones. The report cites on-chain distribution data, stating that if it continues to hold and break through $123 and $132, the supply pressure above SOL will be further alleviated. New observation range appears above $103 The report mentions that SOL is currently priced at $105.22, with a 24-hour increase of about 5.5%. According to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart, around 39 million SOL were exchanged near $103.25, making this level a significant recent price zone. Whale addresses increased by 1.58% weekly Exchange SOL holdings decreased by 4.91% weekly Spot ETF fund flow turned positive on September 3 ETF fund flow and technical indicators improved simultaneously The report also states that on September 3, the Solana spot ETF recorded a net inflow of about 43,000 SOL, indicating a warming institutional demand compared to earlier periods. If this trend continues, it may provide additional support for the price. According to market sources, several international financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup, are exploring joint launches of US dollar stablecoins, with related plans expected to advance as early as the first half of 2027. It is said that the number of institutions currently participating in discussions has expanded from a small number of members to 20+, covering major financial markets such as North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. What is truly noteworthy may not be that the market has gained another stablecoin, but that traditional finance is accelerating the migration of payment, clearing, and settlement systems to blockchain. If the banking system begins to issue and use stablecoins on a large scale, the connection between the US dollar, commercial banks, and on-chain finance will deepen further. Future growth of stablecoins may also become an important driver for the expansion of the entire digital asset infrastructure. From an asset logic perspective: $BTC closer to "digital gold." The deeper traditional financial institutions delve into the digital asset space, the more attention Bitcoin may receive as a long-term allocation asset. $ETH is more worth observing the growth of stablecoins and on-chain settlement scales. If more financial activities are completed through blockchain, Ethereum's value as underlying settlement infrastructure may be repriced by the market. $DOGE still leans toward payment applications and market sentiment narratives. The real question is whether, after traditional finance adopts blockchain on a large scale, DOGE can further transform community consensus into actual payment scenarios. Therefore, rather than "another stablecoin is about to be born," I am more interested in the underlying industry changes: the pastWhy can the US stock market rise so much even when it’s closed $SNDK #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Today I opened the board and checked the accounts: 📊 7 positions held, deployed ~6,944 USDT 💰 floating P&L +189.1 U (+2.7%) AI 🤖 status: **Risk control activated · 2 rule closures** 💰 Net profit and loss realized +61.9 U (already pocketed · Accumulated positions by EMA trend strategy closure) Ranked by profit and loss: Today's highlights: HOOD (HOOD) stands out at +17.9%, the remaining 6 are almost flying flat on the ground. 1 was cut by ATR hard stop-loss, 1 was pocketed by chandelier take-profit. This isn't an order scored by AI, it's triggered by **risk control rules**—execute as soon as the price hits, don't watch sentiment, don't wait for me to get up. - GOOGL — Move Chandelier Take-Profit Current Price 343.41≤ Chandelier Price 347.41 (Peak 350.00 ATR=0.8643) - ADBE — ATR Hard Stop Loss Floating Loss 9.9% ≥ Threshold 6.0% (ATR=4.2500) Note one detail: After GOOGL was cut, it returned to the position — This isn't just that the risk control was cut and the EMA restored the signal**, so the position price had already changed once. Both sets of logic worked independently, without interfering with each other. The real exit was ADBE. The significance of risk control is here: **It deleted the thought of "wait a little longer" for me**. Cut when you hit the loss threshold, and drop when you make a pullbackThis round of rise itself is driven by external news pushing the market. According to the structural trend, BTC is very likely around 75500 now $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 From today's (September 4) market performance, "strongest" can be understood from two dimensions: 1. Mainstream Stable (Leading in Market Cap and Influence) These are the market's cornerstone, generally rising sharply today: · 81,000, up over 5% in 24 hours, serving as the market's barometer. · Above 2,500, with gains around 5%. · $XRP (Ripple): Outstanding performance today, with gains reaching 7% - 9%, leading the mainstream tier. · $SOL Solana)**,** BNB (Binance Coin): Both up over 4% - 6%, showing strong momentum. 2. Explosive (Strongest Short-term Gains) If you seek extreme volatility, these coins led gains today: · 980 historical high, one of the best-performing assets in 24 hours. · $DOGE (Dogecoin): The representative Meme coin, up over 10%, with strong speculative sentiment. · Small-cap Meme coins: such as PONS (up over 58%), MarsCoin (up nearly 100%) with extreme volatility and correspondingly higher risk. For stable plays, look at $BTC $ETH; for aggressive speculation, consider $ZEC or popular Meme coins, but the latter carry very high risk, so please evaluate cautiously. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — $SKHYNIX (15m) Market bias: BULLISH BIAS 🟢 🎯 trend continuation | Confidence 86/100 Price zones to watch: 1212.94 Scenario invalidation level: 1193.58 Technical target 1: 1237.15 Technical target 2: 1251.67 Technical target 3: 1271.03 RSI14 64.6 | ADX14 20.9 | MACD +0.338 | Vol 0.48x A 15m close through SL invalidates the setup; the stop defines the risk boundary. Educational analysis only—not financial advice. #OKXOrbitTopics$ETH Institutional Signal｜Invesco Ethereum ETF clients have not net sold ETH in nearly 6 months On September 4, Arkham on-chain monitoring data showed: Invesco holds the longest continuous ETH holding record among all Ethereum ETFs. - Last client net sale of ETH: 2026-03-19 - No client-level net sales in the past 6 months - Clients have cumulatively bought about $167 million in ETH and still hold their positions ✅ What signals does this data release? 1. Some institutional funds choose long-term holding and do not frequently redeem based on short-term market fluctuations. Even with ETH's ongoing volatility, these chips have not fled. 2. Compared to other Ethereum ETFs, which often see large daily inflows and outflows, Invesco clients' holdings are very stable, representing long-term allocation funds rather than short-term speculative hot money. 3. The $167 million scale is not huge, but it represents a type of institutional attitude: not chasing short-term swings, betting on ETH's mid-to-long-term narrative. ⚠️ Don't be overly optimistic; two important realities: 1. This is data from a single ETF client and does not mean all Ethereum institutions are locked in. Other leading ETFs still experience large net outflows; overall ETH ETF funds are fragmented. 2. "No net selling" ≠ continuous accumulation. The past 6 months only show no net redemption, not continuous buying. 3. Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the biggest variable. Even if institutions are willing to hold long-term, if non-farm data greatly exceeds expectations, risk assets will still face sharp short-term corrections. Long-term institutional positions cannot withstand short-term market sentiment sell-offs. Market correlation ETH currently has high elasticity, directly influenced by BTC market and non-farm data. Institutional long-term chips provide confidence, but short-term trends still depend on market liquidity and data releases. Summary: This is a relatively positive institutional holding signal but should not be used alone as a basis for short-term bullish trades. Long-term funds are willing to endure volatility, but short-term traders must still respect the uncertainty of tonight's non-farm payrolls.【News｜Robinhood Chain Trading Volume Surges, ARB Revenue Logic Gains Renewed Attention】 As on-chain trading activity on Robinhood Chain significantly increases, the revenue narrative of the Arbitrum ecosystem heats up again, and ARB has re-entered the focus of market discussions. However, on-chain revenue growth does not necessarily mean the ARB token value will rise in sync. What deserves deeper analysis is: who ultimately receives these fees? How much revenue flows back to the Arbitrum DAO? And how much truly correlates in value with ARB holders? The market often tends to equate “ecosystem making money” directly with “token price increase,” but there are multiple steps in between, including protocol revenue distribution, governance mechanisms, fee ownership, and market expectations. I believe the real change worth paying attention to in this ARB cycle is whether Arbitrum’s L2 tech stack can generate sustained revenue through deployments and issuance chains of other projects. If this model gradually proves viable, Arbitrum’s business logic may shift from solely relying on attracting users within its own ecosystem to providing foundational financial infrastructure to external projects and continuously monetizing through “tech stack leasing.” This might be the key to whether the ARB revenue narrative can truly upgrade. #RobinhoodChain #Arbitrum #ARB #CryptoNews #Crypto $BTC If a bull market starts, I personally feel that Bitcoin won't experience a particularly large short-term correction. When the opportunity comes, it just comes, and we have to accept the facts. The reason is that currently short-term holders have a relatively low cost basis, while long-term holders have a higher cost basis. Most long-term holders are fully committed believers and won't easily give up their positions; large fluctuations mainly affect short-term holders. Therefore, to force short-term holders out, there must be enough turnover at high levels among short-term holders to push their cost basis up. Only when the short-term holders' cost basis is sufficiently high does downward volatility make sense. At this time, the short-term holders' cost basis is far lower than that of long-term holders. For a significant correction to occur later, it must either be through time allowing short-term holders to fully turnover at high levels, or through a sharp rally forcing short-term holders to enter passively $ETH $SOL Today (September 4), the overall cryptocurrency market showed strong momentum with a broad-based rally. The performance of major coins is as follows: · The 80,000 level, currently around $80,800, up over 4% in 24 hours. · Around 2,500, with an increase of about 4.5%. · Other major coins: $SOL $XRP Ripple and others also generally followed the upward trend. The core catalyst for the rise comes from the macro level: Federal Reserve Governor Waller hinted that if inflation cools in August, he would support pausing rate hikes in September. This dovish stance caused the market's expectation of a Fed rate hike in September to drop sharply from 60% to about 50%, weakening the US dollar and directly boosting the crypto market. In addition, some smaller coins such as $ZEC and **ENA (Ethena) performed particularly well, ranking among the top gainers in the past 24 hours. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 I'm Zhongxian Intelligence Bro. Gold has started to get interesting again these past couple of days. SPDR gold ETFs continue to attract funds, and institutions clearly haven't withdrawn just because of short-term fluctuations; instead, they're repositioning gold as 'bottom assets.' But I won't chase just because ETFs are increasing holdings right now. The key is the non-farm payroll at 20:30 tonight. The market has already started trading expectations in advance, and once the real data comes out, gold is likely to be the first to insert and then choose its direction. Especially recently, with US dollar and US Treasury yields retreating, gold has returned to a strong range; But if the non-farm payrolls are clearly stronger than expected, once dollar and interest rate expectations pick up again, gold could easily be sold down in the short term. So my idea is simple: don't chase rallies before the data, wait for confirmation after the data. If the rally holds steady, then watch for the trend to continue; If the non-farm payroll comes out and sells first, focus on whether there is support in the 4320-4350 range. If a breakdown occurs, wait for a rebound to confirm; if it does break down, don't force it. The medium-term logic hasn't completely broken yet; central bank demand, risk aversion, and interest rate expectations remain important support for gold. But tonight's biggest taboo in this market is: betting on a half-hour candlestick with medium-term positions. $BTC $ETH As mentioned earlier. I'm still watching the Bitcoin market at 79,000. Tonight, looking at non-farm payrolls, gold, and BTC together, whoever breaks out first will likely give the market an answer. #FOMC前最后一张牌 #非农 #黄金 #BTCBTC touches 81,600, ETH retraces to 2,511; this is not an independent bull market, but a macro + short squeeze + ETF triple synergy: ① Dove Powell: Fed officials hint at no rate hike in September, 10-year US Treasury yield returns to 4.77%, USD breaks 99, rate hike pricing drops from 63% to 50%, denominator revaluation; ② Short covering short squeeze: 510 million liquidated in 24h, shorts account for over 80%, 334 million shorts covered within 4 hours after the speech, pushing the rally to a 45-degree angle; ③ Real money ETF: Spot BTC ETF net inflow of 731 million in one day (IBIT 454 million), institutions buying around 80,000, not retail chasing. 81,000–81,500 is the previous two peaks' edge, with a supply ceiling of 1.05 million long-term coins above 83,000. A pullback to 77,000–78,500 with shrinking volume stabilizes low longs; only a volume breakout above 81,500 counts as a reversal attempt, chasing the wick means paying a relief fee to short-coverers. Bitcoin Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-9-4) Yesterday saw a big bullish candlestick rise, but it still hasn't broken through the previous rebound high. On the daily level, it must break through 83000 to have a chance for a second rise 📈 Personally, I am more optimistic about the future: high-level sideways consolidation, the bottom of the consolidation is suitable for entering long positions, with a stop loss if it breaks below the box. Trading strategy: Build a long position around 80300, enter the first position lightly, then wait for a breakthrough at 81500 to add a second position. Stop loss if it breaks below 79900.Recently, Robinhood Chain has been insanely popular, with everyone looking for hundredfold Memes or doing LP. Behind this booming market, there is a seller of shovels called "$UNI". To conclude first: $UNI nowadays is no longer just an "old DeFi coin"; it is a long-term bet on the increasing number of on-chain assets and the growing frequency of on-chain transactions. Let me ask a question first: will the assets on the chain increase or decrease in the future? The answer is actually no surprise. Memes will continue to appear, stablecoins will keep growing, RWA will bring more and more traditional assets on-chain, and stocks, funds, and even things that previously would never be tokenized may gradually enter the chain. If AI Agents really enter Crypto on a large scale, they will also need automatic trading, asset swapping, and liquidity management. I don't know who will ultimately win among these, but as long as they exist, one thing is unavoidable: trading. If someone issues assets, liquidity is needed; if someone holds assets, price discovery is needed; if someone wants to rebalance, Swap is needed. So the second question becomes simple: who is most likely to provide the trading infrastructure for these assets in the long term? Uniswap is at least one of the most worthy answers currently. It has long been more than just that Swap website on Ethereum. V2, V3, and V4 have already formed a complete liquidity protocol system and are continuously being deployed to different Damn, gold and long-term bond yields are both surging together Textbooks say gold prices are negatively correlated with real interest rates, but recently the 30-year US Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 41 consecutive days, hitting a 19-year high of 5.33% on August 18. Yet spot gold has pulled back to around 4400. SPDR Gold ETF holdings once increased to about 1046.6 tons, and Huaan Gold ETF has seen net inflows exceeding 3.6 billion in the past 10 days. This is no longer a simple rate cut trade. If rising rates come from fiscal deficits and term premiums, gold actually rises as a credit hedge. Central bank gold purchases support the bottom, while traders use real rates as their weapon. Tonight at 20:30, the nonfarm payrolls report is the next blow. Consensus expects an increase of about 56,000 to 58,000 jobs, unemployment rate watched at 4.1%, hourly wages at 0.3%. Soft on headcount but strong on wages, gold and bonds may diverge again. The real main event is the CPI on September 11. Don’t just focus on BTC bouncing back to 80,000. This gold move teaches you to first distinguish whether rising rates are due to a strong economy or excessive debt. Misreading these two lines reverses the direction. #GoldETF increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, options volatility under watch #30-year US Treasury yield above 5% for 41 consecutive days #Last data before FOMC: ##Nonfarm payrolls this Friday $BTCStill remember my call? I said $80K was only the starting point. BTC didn't stop there. It pushed from roughly $76,400 → $79,200 → $83,600 in a very short window. Prediction = directionally correct. 🎯 I took some profit before the latest push, so I definitely left money on the table. But honestly? The direction was right. $80K failed to become resistance for long, and BTC quickly accelerated toward the $83K+ zone. Now let's look at the structure. BTC topped around $83,680 before cooling back to$SNDK A friend bought SanDisk around 1520, now floating with a profit of over 50 dollars, asking me whether to sell or not. I can only say, since it was bought at 1520, the stop loss has been moved up to the cost line. If you can hold, hold on; if not, sell in batches. The structure is indeed strengthening, SAR and EMA are supporting from below, J value is 85, RSI 67, momentum still there. But at the 1578 level, it tried to break through once yesterday but failed, and it's near that level again today. If it can't break 1578, a pullback to 1520 is highly likely. This level is indeed strong, but those chasing the price are starting to hesitate. Don't chase the sharp rise; wait for a pullback confirmation before acting, which is much safer than chasing highs. Do you think SanDisk can hold above 1580 this time? 🫡As the next FOMC meeting approaches, the market is awaiting one of the most important employment data of the week—the US Nonfarm Payroll Report. My 400U → 1,000,000U challenge officially marks the 30th day today. 💰 Account fund changes: September 3: about 760U September 4: about 1,015U Yesterday, my account once surged close to 1,350U, and a wave of $CAP plunges finally brought decent profits to short positions held for over 20 days, with daily reaps exceeding 380U. I thought it was finally settled this time, but the overnight market reversed again, and profits shrank rapidly. The most outrageous was $ZEC. It suddenly surged over 9% in the early morning, hitting a new stage high again. Just now, I pulled one position back to breakeven, but on the other side, obvious floating losses started appearing...... 😂 $HYPE also gave bears no chance to catch their breath and continued to hit new highs. As the token unlock milestone on September 6 approaches, the market is closely watching potential selling pressure. But so far, it has not shown a clear pullback; instead, it continues to squeeze up the bears. 📈 BTC is also performing strongly. This round of BTC broke through $80,000 again, reaching a peak close to $82,500; ETH rose in tandem, rebounding nearly 4% in a short period. From ETF funds, derivatives holdings, to market trading activity, risk appetite has clearly improved recently, and funds are seeking high-volatility assets again. 🔥 Is this really a bull market? At least for now,$GOOGL $GOOGL closed at $342.48, up 1.59%, with a trading volume of about 20.73 million shares, rising for two consecutive trading days. Capital is re-evaluating Google's competitiveness in AI search and cloud services, but the core contradiction remains unchanged: AI can increase user engagement, but it may also change the way traditional search ads are displayed and charged. If AI search enhances user stickiness while ad monetization efficiency remains stable, Google can turn its technological advantage into revenue; if usage increases but the value per search decreases, the market will still suppress the valuation. What needs to be verified next is not the model rankings, but whether AI has protected the search cash machine. 83,000 is the BTC lifeline! Is a breakout imminent, or is it a bull trap? $BTC has returned to $80,000, but market divergence remains. Jiang Zhuoer cleared his position near $82,050, believing the $83,000–$84,000 range is a strong resistance and does not rule out a pullback to $70,000–$72,000; Yi Lihua sees support at $76,300 and key resistance at $86,000. The funding side is also a tale of two extremes: whales sold 167,900 ETH in 5 days, cashing out about $408 million; Strive is preparing to deploy up to $1.4 billion to continue increasing BTC holdings. ETF and trading data indicate risk appetite is recovering, but short-term funds are clearly more active. Next focus is on the $83,000–$86,000 range. If volume supports a steady hold, $100,000 could accelerate closer; if the breakout fails, $70,000–$72,000 may once again become key support. This round, $83,000 might be the watershed for directional choice.Bitcoin has climbed back above $84K, but the market still looks divided. Bulls are calling for continuation, while bears are waiting for another rejection at the highs. One camp has reduced exposure around $84,500, arguing that BTC hasn't spent enough time consolidating above the previous range and could revisit $74K–$76K before making another serious attempt higher. Another view sees $78K as the key near-term support, with the bigger resistance zone sitting around $88K–$90K. Meanwhile, some aggThe latest initial jobless claims in the US rose to 206,000, slightly above expectations and the previous value, with continuing claims also rising, indicating a marginal cooling in overall employment data. However, the current employment situation is only mildly weakening and has not deteriorated. Initial claims remain at low levels for the year, corporate layoffs are controllable, and although layoffs in August increased month-on-month, it is still the weakest August layoff level since 2022. The current employment status is characterized by "slowing hiring and restrained layoffs," which is insufficient to force the Federal Reserve to shift to a dovish stance. The ISM services price index for August surged significantly, reaching a three-year high. Coupled with the high and volatile crude oil prices, inflation stickiness has once again become the market's biggest concern. The market's macro expectations have thus entered a dilemma: slow weakening employment suppresses the pace of rate hikes, but stubborn inflation limits easing space. Influenced by officials' relatively dovish remarks, the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 63% to 50%, with the most extreme hawkish expectations cooling down, but the rate cut scenario has not yet begun. The only key anchor currently is tonight's nonfarm payroll data. If employment falls significantly short of expectations, rate hike expectations will further cool, benefiting risk assets; if employment remains resilient and service inflation stays high, the Federal Reserve will continue to focus on the anti-inflation agenda. For BTC, the initial claims data only slightly relieve macro pressure and is not a reversal signal. The real market turning point depends on whether, after the nonfarm payrolls release, US Treasury yields and the dollar undergo substantial repricing. $BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币再破80000美元 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 美联储加息预期降温，比特币重新站上8万美元 美国货币政策预期正在出现变化。 当地时间周四，美国副总统万斯再次公开呼吁美联储降息，希望通过降低借贷成本缓解居民购房压力。这意味着白宫对美联储货币政策的施压仍在持续。 与此同时，美国ISM服务业PMI录得55.4，高于市场预期的54.3。作为美国经济占比最大的板块，服务业依然保持扩张，说明当前美国经济基本面并没有明显失速。 但市场真正关注的，是加息预期正在快速降温。此前交易员一度认为美联储本月加息25个基点的概率达到70%，如今这一比例已经降至约50%。近期美联储官员的表态，也明显没有给“加息已成定局”的市场预期继续升温。 美联储理事沃勒表示，如果后续通胀数据继续改善，他倾向于维持利率不变；纽约联储主席威廉姆斯此前也认为，目前支持进一步加息的理由并不充分。 政策预期缓和，最先受益的就是对流动性高度敏感的风险资产。比特币快速反弹，重新站上8万美元，盘中一度触及8.2万美元，24小时涨幅超过6%；以太坊也重新回到2500美元上方，加密市场整体明显回暖。 市场人士易理华认为，7.63万美元附近已经形成较强支撑，本轮回调结束后，比特币仍有继续向上的可🚨A single bad trade can really make you lose the entire cycle. I used to think losing money was because I picked the wrong coin. Later I realized that what really caused my continuous losses was never BTC, ETH, or altcoins, but my own trading habits. ❌ Adding to a losing position, trying to bring the cost back down; ❌ Waiting stubbornly after a drop, fantasizing it will definitely rebound; ❌ Believing your own judgment just because you see a green candle; ❌ Finding excuses for your position even though the logic has clearly failed. The crypto market won't take all your money at once. It's more like slowly consuming your principal through repeated "undisciplined" decisions. So now my approach is getting simpler: Focus mainly on $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $OKB; Hold core positions for the trend, take timely profits on popular positions; Admit mistakes, take profits when made, and don't recklessly increase risk due to FOMO. What really lets you survive a full cycle is not catching every surge, but controlling yourself from making fatal mistakes. There are always opportunities in the market, but if your principal is gone, opportunities no longer concern you. What do you think is the hardest bad habit to break in trading?👇 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #比特币再破80000美元 #FOMC last set of data before: this Friday's non-farm $BTC $ETH I use a "dumb method" verified over three months: follow the smart money to buy the dip, with a 70% success rate Today I’m sharing a method I actually use, which doesn’t require watching the market until dawn, suitable for people who have jobs and can’t watch the K-line 24/7. The core logic: Whale money doesn’t move casually. Tracking on-chain whale movements is closer to the "truth" than any technical indicator. Specific operation (three steps): Step 1: Use Arkham / Lookonchain to monitor 20 long-term tracked whale addresses, prioritizing those with historically accurate bottom-fishing and top-escaping records. Step 2: Set simple rules — If 3 or more whales withdraw large amounts from exchanges to cold wallets (buy signal) → I build a position If 3 or more whales transfer large amounts into exchanges (sell signal) → I reduce my position Step 3: Don’t chase trades. After the signal appears, wait 1-3 days for a price pullback before following, don’t rush in on the same day. Three months of live data: 12 trades, 8 wins, 4 losses. Average loss -3%, average gain +8%. Win rate 70%, profit-loss ratio 2.6. Limitations (must mention): • Lag: 1-3 days delay from whale action to price reaction • False signals: sometimes just wallet transfers, cross-verification needed • Only suitable for swing trading (holding 1-4 weeks), not for short-term trading. This method isn’t mysterious, it’s just a simplified version of "following the smart money." The key is to dare to follow when the signal appears and dare to exit at the target. #比特币再破80000美元 Bitcoin returns to $80,000 — is this a rebound or a reversal? BTC has once again surpassed $80,000 and is currently trading around $81,000. However, I think it's too early to shout "full bull market return" because the real tough challenges ahead have not yet been overcome. From the capital flow perspective, on September 3, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $301.6 million, and the previous day also recorded a net inflow of $101.1 million, indicating institutional funds are warming up again. But recently, inflows and outflows have been fluctuating, so it’s too soon to talk about a sustained one-sided buying trend. On the macro level, there are marginal positive signals. After Federal Reserve officials released dovish signals, the market’s expectation for a September rate hike dropped from about 63% to 50%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to around 4.75%, giving BTC, gold, and other assets some breathing room. Interestingly, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen to a nearly six-year high, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has decreased. The market is re-trading the "currency depreciation hedge" logic, but higher correlation does not mean BTC will only go up without falling. Technically, the next key resistance is near $82,800. A valid breakthrough and hold above this level would open the chance to challenge $90,000; if the rally fails, support levels near $75,700 and $71,800 should be watched. My judgment is straightforward: this move is more than just a normal small rebound, but $80,000 feels more like a battleground between bulls and bears rather than a zone to blindly chase the rally. Upcoming US employment and inflation data... 📰 News｜Robinhood Chain trading volume surges, ARB's revenue logic once again becomes a market focus As on-chain trading activity on Robinhood Chain heats up significantly, the topic of Arbitrum ecosystem revenue has once again attracted market attention. On the surface, the continuously growing on-chain activity brings new imagination space for ARB, but what truly deserves analysis is not "how much money the ecosystem has earned," but how this revenue is ultimately distributed. Several different levels need to be distinguished: fees generated by the protocol, income that the DAO can obtain, the use of funds under the governance mechanism, and the actual value that ARB token holders can receive. These concepts cannot be simply equated. The market often directly interprets "ecosystem revenue growth" as "token value increase," but there are multiple steps in between, including revenue ownership, protocol sharing, governance decisions, and market expectations. Therefore, simply seeing amplified on-chain data is not enough to prove that ARB's valuation logic has been fully reconstructed. This time, I am more concerned about whether Arbitrum's L2 tech stack can truly form a replicable business model. If in the future more and more projects choose to build their own chains based on Arbitrum's technology system and continuously contribute revenue to related infrastructure, then Arbitrum's positioning may change—from mainly relying on its own ecosystem to attract users in the past, gradually shifting to providing underlying infrastructure to other chains.Key dates in September: 9/4 Nonfarm Payrolls → 9/11 CPI → 9/16 FOMC (more than half expect a rate hike) If your spot positions are insufficient, you must seize the rate hike expectation pullback in September to build your positions, or else you’ll only watch others profit in Q4. At the same time, the flip side of the coin is that before 9/16, a relatively stable strategy is to hold spot positions without moving, add less leverage, and if going long, keep it short-term—take some profit and run. Don’t set big plans before mid-month. For now, I’ve also cleared my leverage again. If you’re eager, you can look at on-chain opportunities; Robinhood’s on-chain RWA might be a hotspot this round.以前我总以为，交易做不好是因为选错了币。 后来才发现，真正的问题根本不是币种，而是太想让每一笔交易都赚钱。 亏损了 → 不愿止损，反而继续加仓； 价格下跌 → 告诉自己“等反弹就好”； 突然出现一根大阳线 → 马上觉得自己的判断被证明了。 这才是最危险的交易循环。 📉 市场通常不会一天之内把你的资金全部拿走。 更多时候，它是通过一次次没有纪律的决定，让仓位慢慢失血。 近期BTC在 $79,000附近反复震荡，ETH维持在 $2,400左右，SOL则在 $180附近寻找方向。与此同时，市场资金仍在不同板块之间快速轮动，短线交易热度明显升温。 所以现在我的思路也变得简单很多： 🟠 $BTC、$ETH → 核心仓位，耐心持有 🟣 $SOL、$OKB → 顺着趋势参与，出现强势拉升就分批止盈 🔥 热门叙事 → 可以关注，但绝不因为FOMO盲目追高 真正重要的不是每次都猜对。 而是： 不要让一次错误交易，决定你整个市场周期的结果。 活下来、控制回撤、保留子弹，机会永远会再次出现。 #BTC #ETH #SOL #OKB #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoNews #加密$AVGO $AVGO closed at $357.16, down 2.74%, with a trading volume of about 60.24 million shares. Despite the Nasdaq and many AI stocks rising, it showed a volume-increased decline against the trend. This is more noteworthy than a typical pullback. The market might be reassessing AI order fulfillment, valuation, or software business integration, or it could simply be funds shifting from relatively stagnant stocks to stronger main themes. The key is whether it stops falling next. If the sector continues to rise while $AVGO remains weak, it indicates greater company-level concerns; if it quickly recovers the losses, today might just be a concentrated turnover. Having the same AI label does not mean all stocks will rise together. The phase where short-term traders are most likely to fall into traps is the high-level consolidation after a big surge. Seeing the market consistently holding at a high level, many people tend to ignore the signals of short-term momentum weakening and blindly hold positions expecting a second explosive rally. Short-term trading requires flexibility and adaptability; when the market loses its explosive power, it's necessary to reduce position size and narrow profit targets to secure the short-term gains already made. Continue to watch the 80000 support level for Bitcoin, and keep an eye on around 2480 for Ethereum. $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $ETH Raising interest rates is difficult, and not raising them is also difficult; this situation itself is a deadlock. A debt burden of 40 trillion weighs heavily, with pitfalls whether advancing or retreating. Taking the tightening path, huge interest payments directly push fiscal pressure to the limit, and the fiscal deficit will only widen. But if easing is maintained, monetary credibility continues to be eroded, and price pressures are hard to suppress. No matter what choice is made, there is a cost; there is simply no perfect option. There is a saying circulating online that external conflict can break the deadlock. If the gamble wins, the heavy debt can be resolved; if it fails, unbearable consequences must be borne. But in reality, this step is very difficult to implement. Nowadays, even facing local frictions, there is hesitation and caution, let alone completely overturning the board. If large-scale confrontation really breaks out, the financial system will be the first to be shaken, capital will flee immediately, and the so-called national credibility will be the last thing to worry about. So don’t blindly believe in the idea that "conflict resolves debt." There is neither the determination to burn bridges nor is it a realistically feasible solution. The more likely scenario remains the old routine: tough statements are made verbally, but in reality, easing is maintained to support the market, slowly digesting the accumulated problems over time. Understanding this underlying logic is to understand the fundamental tone of the current global major market game. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Today (September 4), the crypto market showed a broad rally, with almost all major coins strengthening. The main leaders were: · 81,000, up more than 5% in 24 hours, directly igniting market sentiment. · $XRP (Ripple): performed very brightly, with gains of 6%-9%, leading among major coins. · $DOGE (Dogecoin): rose by 5%-10%, showing strong performance. · ETH (Ethereum)** and **SOL (Solana): both up more than 4%, firmly above 105. · $BNB (Binance Coin): also rose about 5%. In addition, $ZEC (Zcash) surged nearly 20%, standing out the most. This big rally was mainly driven by macro factors such as the Federal Reserve signaling a pause in rate hikes and a weakening dollar. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $UNI: I want a technical pullback $BTC: No, you don't Actually, this wave of uni was aiming for a technical correction, but the market surged strongly and pulled it up as well. I won't continue to chase at this position. I reduced half of my position from the initial 4.25 cost and will consider buying back when it pulls back below 5.5. Ideal pullback target: around 5.25 When I first entered the market, I thought I was the chosen one, but the market crushed me for three years. At first, I chased highs and sold lows, losing half a year's salary, eating instant noodles for a month — I still remember that taste. Later, I learned to cut losses, running away immediately when losing 10%, no hesitation. This trick saved me several times. I started only playing with spare money, investing just a little each month; losses didn’t affect my life, and profits were like bonus treats. The first coin I picked was $BTC; after buying, I put it in a cold wallet and told my mom the password. She said if I lost it, don’t come to her. I switched to $ETH in between because a friend said it would rise, but I bought it during a sideways market and sold it just as it took off — perfectly mistimed. Now I only hold $SOL, not much, but it feels secure because I no longer have to guess daily ups and downs. The biggest change is I stopped watching those analysis videos; watching too much just makes my hands itchy, and itchy hands want to trade. I set a rule for myself: whenever I want to sell, I go for a 3-kilometer run; after running, I calm down. When I make money, I withdraw it to buy toys for my child; seeing her smile is much happier than looking at account numbers. When I lose, I treat it as tuition; this tuition is cheaper than an MBA and teaches lessons about human nature. Now I check the market once a week; the rest of the time, I do what I need to do, and my account slowly grows. After being in this industry for a long time, I understand that getting rich quick is someone else’s story; mine is about endurance. Don’t borrow money, don’t use leverage, don’t go all in — these three rules saved my life. Finally, just one sentence: keep your coins safe and stay alive; that’s better than anything. #比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $MU $MU closed at $958.16, slightly up 0.22%, with a trading volume of about 24.18 million shares. It rose 2.43% yesterday but basically traded sideways today. This is actually a useful signal: capital did not continue to chase the price, but there was no obvious profit-taking either. Storage stocks currently trade on the balance between AI server demand, storage pricing, and industry supply. If after a high-level sideways movement the volume shrinks, it indicates that the chips may be relatively stable; if the price does not rise and volume continues to expand, be wary of capital exiting by riding the hot trend. I am Yuvi. The most dangerous moment in the storage cycle is often not when demand is poor, but when everyone believes demand will never be poor.Waller's statement "give inflation a chance" caused the probability of a rate hike to drop from 66% to 50%, and Bitcoin surged directly to 82,000. Last night, Bitcoin climbed steadily from around 77k to above 82k, rising nearly 5%. The most direct trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's comment: if August inflation data continues to cool, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged in September. CME's probability of a September rate hike dropped directly from 66% to 50%, like flipping a coin. U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and BTC and gold both rose—Bitwise data shows their 90-day correlation has hit the highest since 2020. Jiang Zhuoer has sold all his BTC positions at 82,050, citing ETF fund outflows and resistance at 83k-84k, expecting a pullback to the 70k-72k range. Meanwhile, Yi Lihua believes the bull market has already started, with resistance near 86k. The two experts have completely opposite views. The real test is the nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 tonight. ADP was only 38,000, while the market expects nonfarm payrolls around 56,000. Below 50,000—bullish, possibly continuing the rally; above 80,000—bearish, possibly dropping back to 76k. Add to that next week's CPI and the FOMC on September 15-16, three key events. Let's watch tonight's data first. #比特币再破80000美元 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Besides Micron, let's also focus on the practical layout for crude oil ($CL). The overall strategy is very clear: enter in batches at three key points—91, 94.3, and 98.5—using 10% of the position each time, combined with 2x long-term leverage. Why set up short positions at these levels? The core logic lies in betting on a macro geopolitical turning point. Currently, oil prices are fluctuating above $90. Once the price approaches the $100 mark, considering inflation and the domestic economy, Trump is very likely to pressure for a ceasefire or make a compromise. At that time, the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil will be quickly squeezed out, and oil prices will most likely plunge, which is our chance to make big profits. Here, a special reminder: for this kind of long-term game, never be greedy and use high leverage. The crude oil market is heavily influenced by news and is highly volatile; high leverage can easily get you stopped out. Reduce risk exposure, earn money slowly, the market never lacks opportunities, haste makes waste, and steady is the long-term strategy. #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 $USELESS Actually, the market manipulation to pump the price doesn't cost much, just a few accounts trading back and forth. The main reason for each sudden spike is the continuous short squeezes during the pump. So it keeps faking a drop to lure shorts in as fuel, which is why it will still rise today until no one dares to enter and there's no more fuel.Last week, I was bored and dug out an old hard drive that contained backup files of several wallets I used five years ago. When I imported the private keys, I found that one wallet still had some altcoins I bought back then, but their market value had shrunk by 99%. Another wallet had a few failed transfer records, but the gas fees were real money spent. Looking at those records reminded me how panicked I was at the time, afraid of missing even a minute of market movement. There was a trade I made by getting up at 3 a.m. just because someone in the group said a pump was about to happen. But the pump never came; instead, the project team announced they were running away, and the group disbanded overnight. Back then, I didn’t even know how to use a block explorer and only blindly guessed by staring at the exchange’s candlestick charts. Later, I started learning to read on-chain data and realized a lot of information was actually out in the open, I just didn’t know how to interpret it. For example, if a token’s holding addresses become more dispersed, it means the tokens are gradually being distributed to retail holders. If the concentration of the top ten addresses suddenly drops, it’s likely that whales are quietly selling off. I spent two weeks tagging the top 100 addresses of popular coins and made a spreadsheet. Only then did I realize that many so-called “institutional entries” were actually just transfers between whale addresses, unrelated to retail investors. I updated this list for three months but eventually got lazy, though I learned to look for the real signals instead of the noise. Now I spend only ten minutes a day scanning the on-chain data of a few projects I follow, then close it. Watching price ups and downs is meaningless; the key is to see if on-chain activity changes or if there are abnormal large transfers. Last month, I monitored an old project’s developer address suddenly moving, and sure enough, a new proposal was released the next day. I bought some of its governance tokens following the proposal’s direction, and after it passed, the price rose, earning me a hotpot meal. This wasn’t luck; it was the reward for spending time understanding the data. Although the gains weren’t big, I felt confident. Of course, I missed many opportunities too, because on-chain data can lag or I misinterpreted it. Once I saw a whale address buying a large amount of a coin, so I followed, only to find out it was depositing collateral into a contract. They were hedging, but I was purely going long, so the direction was completely opposite, and I got stuck for a while. So now I treat on-chain data as a reference, not the sole instruction for trading; I still combine it with my own judgment. I also noticed a pattern: on weekends, on-chain activity usually decreases because many market makers rest. Prices are easier to manipulate then, so I basically don’t trade on weekends, at most placing a very low buy order to try my luck. If lucky, I catch some panic-selling tokens; if not, I don’t lose anything since placing orders doesn’t incur fees. This habit saved me a lot of impulsive trading fees and reduced weekend anxiety. A few days ago, I opened that old hard drive again and transferred out the remaining few cents to buy a pack of cigarettes. It was like saying goodbye to my five-years-ago self; looking back, my reckless messing around was quite funny. Now the few mnemonic phrases locked in my cabinet correspond only to $BTC and $ETH; everything else has been cleaned out. I occasionally open them to check balance changes, like looking at a tree planted a long time ago—happy to see some leaves grow. I don’t mind the fallen leaves; the roots are still in the soil, and I just water it when needed. I’ve finished reviewing today’s data, closed the charts, and now I’m going to water the flowers on the windowsill.
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