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🚨$BTC $ETH short sellers were really bloodied last night!
Last night's market can be summed up in two words: unbelievable!
$BTC surged directly to around 82,280, gaining over 5,000 points in a few hours, an increase of more than 6%; in contrast, $ETH only reached about 2,530, a 130-point rebound, clearly BTC is stronger.
Actually, when 2,420 was broken down, I already felt ETH shorts were doomed. The market then reversed sharply, wiping out leveraged short positions all at once.
Why the sudden surge?
Simply put, the core reason is: rate cut expectations.
Waller's latest statement is very crucial: if inflation continues to cool down, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged in September; but if inflation heats up again, a rate hike is not ruled out. The market then pushed the probability of a September rate hike from about 63% down to around 50%.
So this is not just a technical rally, but a sudden reversal of macro expectations plus a short squeeze.
But don't think there is no risk after the surge.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the real test. If the data continues to support rate cut expectations, BTC has a chance to challenge previous highs; conversely, if employment and inflation signals turn hawkish again, this recent gain could be quickly given back.
After a big rally, the biggest fear is not missing out, but mistaking news-driven stimulus for a one-sided bull market.
#比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $EDGE continues to pull back, dropping from 0.698 to 0.607, a 13% decline over two days.
On the chart, at $0.6069, it fell 9.32%, with a high of 0.698 and a low of 0.454. It dropped 7.7% yesterday and another 9.3% today, falling 13% from the high of 0.698. Volume expanded to 17.15 million, higher than yesterday, indicating selling pressure has not yet been fully released. After touching a low of 0.454, it quickly rebounded to 0.60, forming a V-shape, which suggests strong support around 0.45, but the 0.60 level still needs time to be confirmed.
From the data perspective:
· Up 53% in 7 days, up 70% in 30 days, still strong in the mid-term.
· The super trend line is at 0.517, and the price remains above it.
Technically, 0.60 is a short-term key support; closing back at 0.607 today is a temporary stabilization. If it can hold between 0.58-0.60, it may gather strength to push back up to 0.65-0.70. If it fails to hold, it might retest 0.50-0.52. But as long as it doesn't break 0.50, the mid-term trend remains intact. Today's long lower shadow indicates someone is buying in, but whether it can hold after that depends on the next two days' price action.
In terms of trading:
Those holding positions should consider 0.58 as the bottom line; if it breaks, exit. Those looking to enter should wait for 0.58-0.60 to hold before buying, or wait for a volume breakout above 0.65 to chase. Those who missed out should avoid heavy positions near 0.60 and wait for clearer stabilization signals.
EDGE rose from 0.43 to 0.698, gaining over 60%, and now has pulled back to 0.607, erasing half of the gains. Such a level of pullback is common after a sharp rise; the key is whether 0.58-0.60 can hold. If it holds, it's an opportunity; if not, continue to wait.BTC suddenly surged past $80,000. Who bought this rally?
$BTC
Yesterday, BTC was still fluctuating around $77,000, then suddenly accelerated past $80,000, reaching as high as about $82,300.
Many people's first reaction was: Did institutions start buying frantically again?
But breaking down this rally, it turns out the real driver behind BTC's rise wasn't some "mysterious whale capital," but several forces acting simultaneously.
The most direct catalyst came from the Federal Reserve.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if upcoming inflation data continues to improve, he leans toward keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting. The market had been very worried about the Fed continuing to raise rates, but after this statement, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped quickly from about 63% to nearly 50%. U.S. Treasury yields fell, risk assets collectively rebounded, and BTC quickly rose from around $77,000.
But macro news only explains "why some are willing to buy," it doesn't explain why the price suddenly surged so sharply.
What really accelerated the rise was short covering.
During BTC's break above $80,000, a large number of short positions betting on a decline were forced to close. Statistics show that over $440 million in shorts were liquidated across the crypto market that day, with about $200 million in BTC shorts.
What about spot funds?
They are actually coming back too, but not enough to solely explain this big green candle.
On September 1, U.S. spot BTC ETFs still saw a net outflow of about $236.5 million; on September 2, it reversed to a net inflow of about $101.1 million, including about $115 million flowing into BlackRock's IBIT.
So if we want to answer "who exactly bought this rally," my understanding is:
The first layer is the Fed's dovish shift in expectations, making funds willing to take on risk again; the second layer is spot buying returning; the third layer, and the most intense in the short term, is forced short covering.
This is actually very important.
Because the rise caused by short covering is not the same as the rise caused by sustained spot buying.
The former is very fast, but once shorts are mostly squeezed out, this extra buying pressure will disappear.
So what really matters now is not whether BTC has broken $80,000, but in the next few days:
After the liquidation-driven push ends, is there still real spot buying willing to catch the dip around $80,000?
Above that, there is a very obvious level—the May high this year, around $82,800.
If BTC can remain steadily above $80,000 after the short squeeze ends and slowly absorb selling pressure there, the quality of this rally will be much higher.
If it quickly falls back, then this breakout looks more like a "short squeeze rally" triggered by macro news.
#比特币再破80000美元
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC suddenly ripped from the $77K area to above $81,000, catching the bears off guard once again. The latest push was fueled by a combination of factors: 🔹 Fed pressure eased: Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated he could support keeping rates unchanged in September if inflation continues cooling, reducing fears of another immediate hike. 🔹 Bond yields pulled back: Treasury yields declined again, while the dollar weakened, giving risk assets some breathing room. 🔹 Short squeeze intensifUniswap has cumulatively burned over $700 million, accounting for 11.21% of the total supply. It ranks third in total protocol burns, only behind BNB and HYPE.
At $3 back then, no one believed it; the lowest dropped to 2.3. Now the highest is $6.5, doubling and doubling again.
If you die, die with the leader. Robinhood Chain is no longer viable, but there's still Circle's Arc.
As long as on-chain transactions exist, Uniswap is the biggest seller shovel. As long as the burn continues, the price will keep rising. $UNI $BTC $OKB When I first entered the market, I thought candlestick charts were treasure maps. I kept searching with a magnifying glass, but ended up falling into a trap.
The first time I bought $LTC, it was because its name was short and easy to remember. After buying, it rose by ten dollars, and I happily posted about it on my Moments.
The next day it dropped back down, so I posted again complaining about the market makers. Later I realized there were no real market makers—it was all just me scaring myself.
There was a period when I frantically day-traded, making over ten trades a day. At the end of the month, I made fifty dollars but paid two hundred in fees.
Since then, I’ve been more disciplined, only buying $XRP because it’s cheap. I buy a bunch and hold it, feeling good seeing the large quantity.
Once $XRP suddenly surged, and I almost sold, but remembering past missed opportunities, I held on.
Although it eventually dropped back, I found I didn’t regret it because at least I didn’t sell too early.
My biggest takeaway now is not to tie your emotions to the price. Price is like waves; you are the shore.
When I make a little profit, I take it out to buy a new outfit. Wearing it to work feels better than making a big profit.
When I lose, I just treat the market to a meal since it often treats me back.
I still hold my last coin, $ADA, because I spent a whole night learning staking. After mastering it, I couldn’t bear to let it go.
These three coins are all my assets—not many, but each has a story.
The story is told, prices keep changing, but I’ve learned to eat when it’s time to eat and sleep when it’s time to sleep. #比特币再破80000美元
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The shadow of the tower crane just swept over the load-bearing wall line on the blueprint when the exchange alarm went off—this $ETC candlestick looks like a podium building erected without piling, "expanding" 5.92% in 24 hours, but to me, this isn’t pouring concrete, it’s a cold weld.
I stared at the RSI on the screen: short-term at 65.6, like a prestressed steel strand pulled to its critical point, appearing neutral but with internal stress already exceeding limits. The long-term at 51.1 is even more ironic—the foundation soil is still creeping, yet the upper structure has already started to tilt. What furrows my brow most is the Bollinger Bands: short-term price stuck at the 80th percentile, only 1.4% "clearance" from the upper band, while the lower band hangs with a 6.0% drop. The mid-term is even more extreme, at the 86th percentile, with only 1.2% buffer above and a 7.4% collapse zone below. This isn’t volatility; it’s a cantilever structure without diagonal bracing—when the wind blows, it will collapse.
Don’t talk to me about "ecosystem narratives"—those are just sales office renderings. I’ve reviewed this $ETC blueprint—the consensus layer is masonry, lacking the ductility of a cast-in-place frame; cracks from hash rate migration have already penetrated the floor slab, yet they keep adding more floors. Truly great projects embed steel frames and waterproof membranes in the foundation, not a bunch of mining rigs roaring with heat dissipation. No matter how much the whitepaper looks like Le Corbusier’s sketches, if the construction crew pours C15 columns with C30 concrete, would you dare to live there?
So my construction log is straightforward—this building needs backfilling.
📉 Short:
Entry: 7.38 (6.0% above current price, like hanging a short order at the waistline level)
Take Profit 1: 6.27 (10.0% retracement, unload the first load)
Take Profit 2: 6.48 (another 6.9% probe, secondary settlement joint)
Stop Loss: 8.10 (breakthrough 16.3%, considered structural reinforcement successful, admit mistake and exit)
The current price of 6.96 is just the illusion of scaffolding not yet removed. That 5.92% 24H bullish candle is the last batch of ready-mix concrete forcibly pumped into a formwork already in initial set—smooth on the surface, but full of cold joints inside. Once the formwork is removed, what awaits is not applause but a glaring "fail" on the inspection report.
The load-bearing walls are already shaking. As for whether this trade ends up as garbage removal or a budget for structural reinforcement, ha, let the settlement sheet answer that.**Tesla without a steering wheel is going into mass production**
Cybercab: no steering wheel, no pedals, no driver, two seats facing each other, get in to sleep and pay when you get off. Musk said 1 billion robots in 10 years, Robotaxi will be the first batch on the streets. The key is not that the car is cool, but that a new economy is coming—a driverless car running 24/7, charging itself, taking orders itself, settling payments itself. It doesn't need bank branches, nor face recognition payments. Money between machines must run on a machine-native network. Every driverless car is an economic unit that never clocks out. The money they settle with is the money that will dominate this era. The car belongs to Tesla, the toll fees are encrypted.PANews September 4 report, according to Bloomberg, after Nvidia acquired AI platform Hugging Face for about $13 billion, the three French co-founders—38-year-old Clément Delangue, 42-year-old Julien Chaumond, and 41-year-old Thomas Wolf—each have a net worth of about $1.8 billion, entering the Bloomberg Billionaires Index for the first time.
The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027, and the three co-founders will continue to stay under a six-year retention agreement. Nvidia has committed that Hugging Face will remain an open platform, allowing users to freely upload and download AI models and datasets. Hugging Face was founded in 2016, initially started in Paris, and is now headquartered in Brooklyn.$AT I originally just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up giving me dumplings for half a year. Last night before bed, I saw the chart still bottoming out, and I was wondering if this wave was hopeless, almost cutting my position. But then there was that dip early yesterday morning; many thought it was over, but I saw the support was never broken, with buyers quietly getting stronger below. I shouted out at the time, this is a good entry point, no hesitation needed. Now it's good, from 0.1450 to 0.1450, the return is +137.16%, this profit feels great. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet, the guys on board should be waking up laughing. The timing on this wave was really spot on. Position management is simple: take profit on 75%, move stop loss on the remaining 25% to the cost price to protect it, let the profit run, don’t be greedy for the last bite. What you pocket is yours; unrealized gains, no matter how big, belong to the market. The market is to be waited for, profits are to be held for. Panic comes from no plan, losses come from overthinking. For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you immediately.
$XRP $ADA 🚨$BTC $ETH shorts were really bloodied last night!
Last night's market can be summed up in two words: unbelievable!
$BTC surged directly to around 82,280, gaining over 5,000 points in a few hours, an increase of more than 6%; meanwhile, $ETH only reached about 2,530, a 130-point rebound, clearly showing BTC is stronger.
Actually, when 2,420 was broken, I already felt ETH shorts were doomed. The market then reversed sharply, wiping out leveraged short positions all at once.
Why the sudden surge?
Simply put, the core reason is: rate cut expectations.
Waller's latest statement is very crucial: if inflation continues to cool down, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged in September; but if inflation heats up again, a rate hike is not ruled out. The market then pushed the probability of a September rate hike down from about 63% to around 50%.
So this is not just a technical rally, but a sudden reversal of macro expectations plus a short squeeze.
But don't think there is no risk after the surge.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the real test. If the data continues to support rate cut expectations, BTC has a chance to challenge previous highs; conversely, if employment and inflation signals turn hawkish again, this recent gain could quickly be given back.
After a big rally, the biggest fear is not missing out, but mistaking news-driven spikes for a one-sided bull market.
#比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $BTC Nonfarm Preview: No Need to Panic After the Surge and Pullback, the Positioning Window Is Right Now!
Tonight, the August nonfarm payroll data will be released. The current market consensus expects weaker job additions, with the Federal Reserve's September rate hike expectations remaining low. Overall macro liquidity expectations are relatively warm, and risk assets have already received valuation support in advance.
On the chart, BTC has already reflected optimistic expectations, surging to 82282.8 to refresh the stage high, then pulling back to around 80700 due to resistance from previous highs and short-term profit-taking. This is a typical shakeout before the nonfarm data, not a trend reversal.
Essentially, major funds use the uncertainty before the data release to shake out weak floating positions through volatility, raising the overall market holding cost while testing the strength of key support below. Currently, the 80000 round number support is holding well, and the bullish large structure remains intact. As long as the data meets the weaker expectations, the market is very likely to continue upward after the data release.
For operations, here’s a clear summary: those already holding positions need not panic. The core defense level is at 79000; as long as this level holds, you can continue to hold. For those who haven't entered yet, feel free to join the discussion and wait for the market after the data release. If the data meets expectations, the first target is the previous high at 82200.
Trading requires anticipating logic in advance, not chasing rallies or sell-offs based on news. Understanding expectations, timing the rhythm, and managing risk well are the keys to steady profits in the market!
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 1.05 million coins.
In the $83,000 to $86,000 range, there is a supply of 1.05 million BTC held by long-term holders.
These coins have gone through an entire down cycle and have basically never been sold.
Now that the price has returned, these holders finally have the opportunity to "break even or even profit."
This is not some pump-and-dump by a manipulator. This is 1.05 million "patience" being tested.
⛰️ The first wall: 1.05 million "patient coins"
Glassnode's data is very clear—the $83,000 to $86,000 range is the first significant cost concentration zone above the spot price of $79,000.
Below, in the $62,000 to $65,000 range, there are still 1.44 million BTC, of which nearly two-thirds are held by recent buyers.
Glassnode's original words—"recent buyers provide support below, long-term coins form the supply wall above."
What does this mean?
There is support below preventing a drop, and a wall above preventing a rise.
Bitcoin is currently stuck between these two walls.
📊 Technicals: $510 million shorts just liquidated, but RSI is already overbought
In the early hours of September 3, OKX spot BTC/USDT briefly broke through $82,000 again.
This surge liquidated $510 million worth of shorts within 24 hours.
Forced short covering provided short-term buying pressure—but this is not trend-driven buying; it’s buying "with a knife to the throat."
On the 4-hour chart, BTC price is testing the upper Bollinger Band resistance at $81,288, with RSI(14) reaching an overbought level of 71.63.
EMA50 is at $77,985, EMA200 at $72,363.
Technicals are saying one thing: the short-term rise has been too fast and needs to catch its breath.
💰 ETF funds: $3.5 billion in August was historic, but September started with "one-day trips"
In August, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $3.52 billion, the strongest single-month performance since October 2025.
But entering September, funds began fluctuating in both directions.
On September 1, there was a net outflow of $236.5 million; on September 2, it turned back to a net inflow of $101.1 million.
Institutions are not "buying blindly." They are also trading in waves at key price levels.
More worrisome is that from August 17, in the 9-day cumulative inflow of $3.05 billion, BlackRock's IBIT fund alone contributed about $2.3 billion, accounting for 75.6%.
The entire market's ETF buying is almost propped up by just one player.
🔥 A head-to-head clash of two forces
On the bulls' side: Yili Hua says the bull market trend has already started, with pullbacks followed by continued rises, resistance near $86,000.
On the bears' side: Jiang Zhuoer sold all BTC positions at $82,050. He judges that after ETF funds weaken, there is a risk of pullback, with focus on $70,000 to $72,000.
One is adding positions, the other is closing out.
Same price, two completely opposite judgments.
📌 Two scenarios—
Scenario A (Breakthrough): BTC holds above $82,000, with real resistance in the cost concentration zone above $87,000. Short-term holders’ cost basis is about $70,000, meaning there is a thick enough "safety cushion" below.
Scenario B (Rejection): $82,000–$82,800 is the current breakout/rejection zone. If it cannot break through effectively, it may retest support at $78,000. This coincides with Glassnode's "recent buyers providing support" area.
$82,000 is not just a line.
It is the psychological price of 1.05 million BTC holders, the stop-loss level for $510 million shorts, and the sentiment barometer for global macro traders.
A wall built by 1.05 million "patient" coins cannot be toppled by shouting slogans.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币再破80000美元 # US ISM Services Index Rises to 55.4 in August
The US ISM Services Index rose to 55.4 in August, significantly exceeding expectations. July was 54.1, with market expectations around 54.3, marking a near six-month high and the 26th consecutive month in expansion territory.
Core Insights
Strong economic demand: The new orders index rose to 60.9, reaching about a 3.5-year high, indicating that US service consumption and corporate demand remain robust. Reduced recession risk: 55.4 is well above 50, meaning the service sector is still expanding rapidly, supporting US economic growth in Q3. The biggest issue is inflation: The prices paid index rose to 72.6, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a clear resurgence of cost pressures in the service sector. Employment remains weak: The employment sub-index is about 47.8, contracting for the second consecutive month, creating a "strong demand, weak hiring" combination.
For the Federal Reserve: Slightly hawkish, but not purely negative
If nonfarm payrolls are strong → US Treasury yields and the dollar may rise, increasing short-term pressure on BTC.
If nonfarm payrolls show "weak employment + high wages" → most favorable for gold, BTC will be highly volatile.
This ISM report itself is not a recession signal; rather, it shows that the US economy remains resilient. The market’s real dilemma has shifted from "Will the US economy enter a recession?" to "Will employment deteriorate enough to force the Fed to cut rates?" At the same price, two top traders made completely opposite decisions.
Jiang Zhuoer: Sold 100% BTC position at $82,050, then turned to short.
Yi Lihua: $76,300 is the support level, after the pullback it will continue to rise, the bull market trend has already started.
Same second, same market, one liquidates and leaves, the other goes full long.
Who is right? Who is wrong?
🔴 First, let's look at Jiang Zhuoer's side—
Founder of LBTC Mining Pool, announced on X early this morning:
Sold all BTC positions at $82,050.
What are the reasons?
First, ETF funds are weak. After Bitcoin ETF saw outflows for the first time, the price instead rose to around $81,500 near the upper edge of the range—he considers this a “good selling opportunity.”
Second, the consolidation period is too short. This round only consolidated for about 13 days, not enough time to break the important resistance at $83,000–$84,000.
Third, technical signals. After breaking $82,000, a short-term “upward wick” pattern appeared.
His plan: wait to buy back at $70,000–$72,000.
Simply put: I think $82,000 is the top, I’m running first, I’ll buy back when it drops to $70,000.
🔵 Now look at Yi Lihua’s side—
Founder of Liquid Capital, with a completely opposite view:
Bitcoin dropping to $76,300 is the support level and has already rebounded.
“No matter what, it’s as expected, after the pullback it will continue to rise.”
The resistance above is near $86,000.
“The market is always changing, but no matter what, the bull market trend has started.”
Simply put: $82,000 is just a mid-point, $86,000 is the next hurdle, the bull market is not over.
📊 Who is right? Both are right. Because the same set of data can be interpreted in two ways—
Bitwise’s latest data shows Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has risen to the highest level since 2020.
The “digital gold” narrative officially returns.
Bulls say: Great, Bitcoin is finally being treated as a store of value, rising alongside gold, this is an upgrade in institutional allocation logic.
Bears say: High correlation means more macro drag; when US Treasury yields rise, gold and Bitcoin fall together.
Same data, two interpretations, two positions, two lives.
💡 The truly painful part of this is—
Top traders making completely opposite decisions at the same price means it’s not that the market lacks direction, but that your time frame is not right.
Jiang Zhuoer looks at the short-term pullback—sell at $82,000, buy at $72,000, capturing a $10,000 pullback wave.
Yi Lihua looks at the mid-term trend—$76,300 is the bottom, $86,000 is the next resistance, the trend is upward and unshaken.
One trades swings, the other trades trends. Both are right, just their money works on different timelines.
What about you?
At $82,000, whose side are you on?
$ETH $BTC $SOL #比特币再破80000美元 Yesterday $ZEC was quite hot, surging about 15% in 24 hours, with the price nearing 950 and trading volume picking up.
Many who were short before got squeezed badly, with lots of complaints and margin call posts. Privacy coins suddenly caught the attention of funds, somewhat linked to the BTC market rebound.
In short, it's just short-term sentiment and capital speculation, don't chase the highs, just watch the excitement.我是中线情报哥。 SPDR 9月2日单日增持9.98吨，8月初到现在累计增持接近50吨。 这味道已经很明显了——不是散户突然手痒，而是机构在把黄金重新当成底仓配置。 但今晚20:30非农数据出来之前，我不会把这近10吨增持简单理解成「无脑看多」。 更像是数据前抢跑买预期。 期权市场的隐含波动率短期出现倒挂，说明资金已经开始提前给非农定价。 怕什么？ 怕非农数据太热，美元突然走强； 也怕实际利率重新抬头，黄金短线被砸。 但如果拉长周期看，黄金的中线逻辑目前并没有被破坏： 央行持续购金、 美债信用溢价、 实际利率边际回落。 这三条线，依然在给黄金提供支撑。 所以 $XAU 现在4400上方，我反而觉得不是特别舒服的追涨位置。 真要等今晚数据把价格砸下来，我更关注 4320—4350 这一带有没有明显承接。 我的打法很简单： 20:30之后先看市场怎么走，等它告诉我是「假跌破」还是「真回踩」，价格到了关键位置再动手。 中线仓位，没必要拿去赌非农出来后的半小时脉冲。 至于 $BTC $ETH ，前面已经说过了。 大饼目前我还是盯着一个位置： 79000。 #FOMC前最后一组数据 #本周五非Yes, and you don't have to wait for an interest rate hike.
**Whether it falls or not doesn't depend on whether rates are raised, but on where the volatility comes from.** In September alone, there are four obvious sources of volatility: tonight's non-farm payroll data, the 9/16 FOMC meeting, the 9/17-18 BOJ meeting, and the 9/9 Apple event. Even if the FOMC doesn't raise rates, the other three can still crash the market. Moreover, the crypto market's own rhythm is even more critical: BTC has surged close to the previous high of $83K, with a lot of trapped positions and leveraged longs above. Any negative news could trigger a sharp dip—this is called "buy the rumor, sell the fact," where good news landing often leads to a sell-off.
**But to be honest with you:** If the expectation of a rate cut is fully confirmed and liquidity opens up, the correction might be shallow and short-lived. Deep dips to $72K or $67K are unlikely; touching $75-77K for BTC and $2,300-2,400 for ETH would already be generous.
So you don't need to change your strategy:
- Keep your bullets divided into three batches in mind; buy whichever batch dips, don't spend all your ammo early
- If it really can't be pushed down and BTC holds above $83K, we'll reassess, no need to wait indefinitely
- Most importantly—**you are already fully invested in spot; the correction is an extra serving for you, not a chance to get on board.** You're already on the bus; the 34,000 U is just backup ammo. If it doesn't dip deeply, you won't lose, and you still hold all your BTC, SOL, and ETH.
Tonight at 8:30 PM (Beijing time) is the non-farm payrolls; volatility will likely come tonight. I'm monitoring it closely.$BTC BlackRock's IBIT is gaining momentum again.
Intraday gains once approached 6%, with an estimated market inflow of about $300 million for the day.
Note, this $300 million is currently just an intraday estimate; the final net inflow still needs official data confirmation. But from the market perspective, spot demand is becoming strong again, and this signal is worth paying attention to.
More importantly, BTC price increases and ETF capital inflows are beginning to resonate again.
As the price rises, ETF funds enter simultaneously, meaning the selling pressure in the market is being absorbed by spot buying. If IBIT continues to accumulate, the selling pressure above BTC could gradually be digested.
So what really needs to be watched now is not how much it rose in one day, but two data points:
First, whether today's estimated $300 million inflow can be confirmed.
Second, whether ETF buying can be sustained for several consecutive days, rather than just a one-day pulse.
If it's just a single-day inflow, it doesn't say much; but if funds keep flowing back and BTC continues to strengthen, then it's a completely different story.
Prices are starting to move, and Wall Street's spot funds are also beginning to re-enter.
This is the real point worth focusing on in this wave of the market. #比特币再破80000美元 #US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 206K
🇺🇸 US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 206K: Job Market Remains Stable, but Cooling Trend Continues
According to the US Department of Labor, for the week ending August 29, initial jobless claims rose to 206,000, with the previous value revised to 204,000 and market expectations at 205,000, slightly above expectations. The four-week average rose to 207,250, and continuing claims increased to about 1.779 million.
📈 Slightly Above Expectations: Slightly bearish for the US dollar and Treasury yields. 🧊 Absolute Level Still Very Low: 206,000 remains near historical lows, indicating no large-scale layoffs by companies. ⚠️ The real focus is on continuing claims: rising to 1.779 million, indicating a slowdown in the speed at which unemployed individuals are finding new jobs.
Most Important for Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls
This data itself is mildly bearish for the US dollar and mildly bullish for gold/Treasuries/crypto assets, but the impact is limited.
The market is really waiting for the August nonfarm payrolls. Currently, the market is concerned that:
Initial claims remain low → layoffs are not severe; but hiring has clearly slowed → the job market is "gradually cooling."
If tonight's nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations and the unemployment rate rises, the market will further bet on the Fed turning dovish, potentially providing stronger support for BTC, ETH, and gold, while Treasury yields and the US dollar come under pressure.
Conversely, if nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, it could push up expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates or even raise them.On August 5, Uniswap Labs launched Pools.trade on Robinhood Chain with lower fees, surpassing Pons on the first day of launch. The market interpretation at the time was: the DEX giant was personally stepping in, aiming to crush this small platform that made money daily from memecoin issuance fees. On September 4, Uniswap Labs bought PONS tokens. No amount was disclosed, no price was disclosed, no holding address disclosed. Only one phrase: "long-term alignment." From "I'm going to take you down" to "I'm investing in you," only 30 days passed. This is the strangest part of this news: if Pools.trade really won, why would Uniswap still buy the opponent's coin? Change the subject to "Pools.trade first-day data" If the subject is "Uniswap," the story is "strategic investment." If the subject is "Pons," the story is "endorsed by a giant." But if the subject is changed to the Pools.trade first-day data once used to prove "Uniswap can beat Pons," the entire narrative collapses. Pools.trade surpassed Pons on its first day of launch. This data spread widely, but it only measured one thing: how many people came to try it on the first day. It didn't measure retention, repurchases, or whether these people were still there a week later. Thirty days later, Uniswap admitted it with a purchase of PONS$XAU London Gold today (September 4) remains in a high-level oscillation, reported near $4473/oz during the Asian session. On the previous trading day, spot gold closed at $4491.85/oz, surging 2.37%, briefly surpassing the $4500 mark intraday, reaching a high of $4510.97.
The core driver of this surge is the sudden shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations. Fed Governor Waller released dovish signals, indicating that if inflation continues to slow, he would tend to support keeping interest rates unchanged. This statement caused the market's probability expectation for a September rate hike to drop sharply from about 62% to around 50%, with the US dollar index and US Treasury yields falling accordingly, directly igniting the gold rebound.
Recently, gold prices have shown "roller coaster" style intense volatility. On September 2, influenced by a stronger dollar and rising rate hike expectations, gold prices plunged to $4282.23/oz, the lowest since August 7; then quickly rebounded over the next two trading days, rising nearly $200 cumulatively. In August, gold prices initially rose then fell, reaching a high of $4697 during the month, but retreated over 7% by month-end due to hawkish Fed statements.
In the short term, focus is on tonight's US nonfarm payroll report; if the data is weak, it will further weaken rate hike expectations, and gold prices are expected to continue rebounding. From an institutional perspective, Caitong Securities believes London gold is currently at the bottom range for Q3, targeting $4900/oz; however, some institutions warn that hawkish Fed officials' repeated statements mean resistance remains above $4500.
Risk warning: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.When I first entered the market, I thought candlestick charts were treasure maps. I kept searching with a magnifying glass, but ended up falling into a trap.
The first time I bought $LTC, it was because its name was short and easy to remember. After buying, it rose by ten dollars, and I happily posted about it on my Moments.
The next day it dropped back down, so I posted again complaining about the market makers. Later I realized there were no real market makers—it was all just me scaring myself.
There was a period when I frantically day-traded, making over ten trades a day. At the end of the month, I made fifty dollars but paid two hundred in fees.
Since then, I’ve been more disciplined, only buying $XRP because it’s cheap. I buy a bunch and hold it, feeling good seeing the large quantity.
Once $XRP suddenly surged, and I almost sold, but remembering past missed opportunities, I held on.
Although it eventually dropped back, I found I didn’t regret it because at least I didn’t sell too early.
My biggest takeaway now is not to tie your emotions to the price. Price is like waves; you are the shore.
When I make a little profit, I take it out to buy a new outfit. Wearing it to work feels better than making a big profit.
When I lose, I just treat the market to a meal since it often treats me back.
I still hold my last coin, $ADA, because I spent a whole night learning staking. After mastering it, I couldn’t bear to let it go.
These three coins are all my assets—not many, but each has a story.
The story is told, prices keep changing, but I’ve learned to eat when it’s time to eat and sleep when it’s time to sleep. #比特币再破80000美元
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Don't build your ecosystem on "someone else's beach": Why an independent mainnet is the ultimate moat for a public chain? 🏰
Countless projects that rely on riding trends, rebranding, or attaching to others' ecosystems have ultimately vanished into dust during black swan events like network congestion or cross-chain bridge failures.
Talking about the future on a chain without sovereignty or an independent ledger is nothing but a castle in the air.
From day one, ACO has insisted on the most stable path:
🔹 Possessing an absolutely independent Chain ID and native ledger, refusing to be dependent on others;
🔹 Refusing to hand over the underlying lifeline to uncontrollable external sidechains;
🔹 Using a fully autonomous mainnet foundation to safeguard every data interaction and asset transfer across the entire ecosystem.
Building a public chain on an unstable foundation leads to upheaval. Choosing ACO means choosing true control.
#ACO主网 #独立底层 #区块链安全 #公链叙事 #加密技术 9.4BTC
Today's number is pretty good 😂
Today's analysis
This surge from 770 to 820 mainly comes from the warming expectations of favorable crypto regulations and BTC ETF capital inflows.
Combined with the market fully digesting the hawkish expectations from Jackson Hole, the recovery of rate cut expectations and the weakening dollar have driven a collective rebound in risk assets.
Market sentiment quickly shifted from cautious during the previous adjustment to exuberant, but after continuous sharp rises, the high-level profit-taking is abundant, and selling pressure increases along with the price rise. The market needs a pullback to shake out and digest profit-taking and trapped positions before better expanding upward.
At this stage, it is highly likely to pull back and stabilize near 850, then after digesting profit-taking, surge again to challenge the high of 82282, possibly even opening the 83000+ range.
The large-scale bullish trend is re-established.
Trading advice: buy on pullbacks to support, but pay attention to the effectiveness of the 800 support.
Buy in batches on pullbacks to 790-800, with the first target near 820.
After a volume breakout above 823, look towards above 830.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $UNITREE Unitree Robotics Technology experienced slight fluctuations today (September 4), closing at ¥549.62 at the time of writing, down 0.15%, with a turnover of ¥713 million and a turnover rate of 4.29%. The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio remains as high as 405 times.
Since its listing, the stock price has been a roller coaster. The company debuted on the STAR Market on August 19 at an issue price of ¥150.80, soaring to ¥1100 on the first day (a 629% increase), with a market capitalization reaching ¥444.9 billion. However, it then continuously declined, falling below ¥550 in just 11 trading days, halving from its peak and losing over ¥220 billion in market value. As of yesterday's close, it stood at ¥550.45, still about 260% above the issue price.
There is a serious disconnect between fundamentals and valuation. The company’s 2025 revenue is projected at ¥1.699 billion, with net profit excluding non-recurring items at ¥591 million, making it one of the few profitable full humanoid robot companies globally; in the first half of 2026, revenue was ¥1.152 billion (up 48.54% year-over-year), but net profit excluding non-recurring items was ¥244 million (down 19.34% year-over-year), with R&D expenses surging 152%. The current 405 times P/E ratio far exceeds the industry average, and the valuation still needs to be digested by performance.
Recent company updates: The Chengdu wholly-owned subsidiary completed registration; the company denied rumors that reimbursements over ¥100 require approval from Wang Xingxing; founder Wang Xingxing previously expressed hope that investors recognize value rather than speculation.
Risk warning: High valuation, expectations of restricted stock unlocking, and slower-than-expected industry commercialization progress are all potential risks. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.The small-cap long position in my account has been recovering along with the market these past two days, and the visible floating loss is narrowing. Many in the comments think I’m "adding to the position to average down and waiting for it to turn green"—quite the opposite, all the orders I have placed above are sell orders.
This isn’t about being bearish on myself; it’s discipline: a trade that recovered by luck doesn’t give me a reason to add more, but rather a window to exit. Small-cap, low-liquidity assets make you think you can hold them forever when they rise, but when it’s time to run, the order book simply can’t support it. While there are buyers lifting the price, I’m unloading my position to recover costs, treating the rest as a free lottery ticket.
At the table, this is called "knowing when to take profits"—don’t be greedy and go all in on a winning hand. This $BTC short squeeze has emboldened many; is your recovery luck or skill?#比特币再破80000美元 $80,000, some are desperately trying to get in, while others are liquidating and running away
BTC has surged past $80,000 again.
You might think the market would be celebrating wildly? But when you check the community, you’re stunned—two big players have given completely opposite answers, making people uneasy.
On one side, the founder of Liquid Capital is raising his arms, proclaiming the bull market has arrived, eyes fixed on the next stop at $86,000. On the other side, Jiang Zhuoer has completely liquidated his BTC around $82,000, clean and decisive, citing ETF funds starting to hesitate and warning of pullback risks.
Same price, one sees a golden buying opportunity, the other sees a top to run from.
This scene is very much like when BTC surged to $60,000 back then—some shouting about the stars and the sea, others quietly cashing out and leaving. Every critical juncture always brings the most divisive opinions.
Even more interesting is the data: the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has actually soared to the highest point since 2020.
In plain terms—the market is pricing BTC as "digital gold." When the dollar weakens, money flows to these two directions. Sounds great, but the problem is, gold is worth tens of trillions, how much is BTC? Is this a real linkage, or just an excuse to surge together? $ETH $BTC $SKHYNIX Hynix (000660.KS) stock price surged strongly today (September 4), rising nearly 3% intraday to temporarily report 1,643,000 KRW. This round of increase was mainly driven by the overnight surge in U.S. tech stocks, dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve easing rate hike concerns, and the rise of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The Korean KOSPI index also rose more than 1.4% accordingly.
From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance is extremely impressive but the stock price has significantly corrected. Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW (up 257% year-on-year), operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW (up 557% year-on-year), and net profit was 93.92 trillion KRW, all hitting record highs. However, due to slightly below market expectations, the stock price has fallen nearly 47% from the June peak, with the current P/E ratio only about 7.22 times, indicating a relatively low valuation.
In the medium to long term, AI storage demand remains the core driving force. The company’s HBM4 has been shipped on a large scale, and HBM4E samples have been sent to customers; the advanced packaging plant in Indiana, USA, has been laid, with next-generation HBM expected to be mass-produced in the second half of 2029. Multiple institutions such as Daiwa and HSBC have given "Buy" ratings, raising target prices to between 3,600,000 and 4,000,000 KRW.
Risks include uncertainty over U.S. semiconductor tariff policies, massive capital expenditures (expected to reach 40 trillion KRW in 2026), and cyclical industry fluctuations.Conclusion first: The bear market is very likely over, and the new bull market seems to have just entered its early stages, not yet officially confirmed.
It's not the main rally like in October 2025, nor the deep bear wave in July. Right now, it's stuck between 'regime switch' and 'official confirmation.' Current price is about $80,800–$81,500. The October 2025 high was about $126,000, about 35% lower; This July's low was about $58,000, and since then, it's rebounded about 40%. In August, it rose about 25%, and on September 3, it pulled back above $81,000 from around $77,000. CryptoQuant's perspective is clearest: this is the early stage of a new bull market, but the daily chart needs to break above the 365-day moving average (about $82,300–$83,000) for it to officially begin. The bull score is still at 70, which is bullish, but spot demand has contracted again from expansion. This wave is more of a consolidation after short covering.
2. Market position: More like an early bull confirmation phase, not the middle stage of the main rally
Bitcoin is currently around $80,800–$81,500. The October 2025 high was about $126,000, and the current position is still about 35% lower; The July low this year was about $58,000, from which it has rebounded about 40%. August alone rose about 25%, making it one of the strongest August in recent years. So you need to break down this sentence: "Maybe it's just beginning"—directionSuddenly discovered a little secret about the linkage between gold and Bitcoin!
Gold has gone through roughly three waves from the start of this round until now. Of course, the third wave is still in the initiation phase and hasn't finished yet.
The first wave started around 8:00 AM on August 5,
the second wave started around 8:00 PM on August 19,
the third wave started around 7:00 PM on September 2.
When gold started the first wave, Bitcoin showed no reaction and was still in the adjustment process.
The first wave from start to the end of adjustment took 14 days.
When gold started the second wave, Bitcoin almost started simultaneously with gold and began a wild surge. After gold's second wave peak appeared, Bitcoin also reached its peak within the next 2 to 3 hours and then entered a long 8-day correction.
The second wave from start to the end of adjustment also took 14 days.
When gold started the third wave, Bitcoin just formed the lowest point of the previous wild surge correction and has been steadily climbing in small steps until around 8:00 PM on September 3, when it began to surge rapidly.
If the third wave from start to the end of adjustment also takes 14 days, that would be September 16?
$BTC
$XAUT
The above is just a personal trading analysis record and does not constitute any investment advice.Last year, I was tempted by a mining pool with an annualized return of over a thousand percent and staked most of my position in it.
In the first few days, I watched the earnings soar, feeling so good I almost treated everyone to a meal, but a week later the tokens in the pool crashed to nothing.
Calculating it all, I lost 60% of my principal, and the mining rewards weren't even enough to cover the fees—it was purely a warm gift to the project team.
Later I realized that those high-yield pools use new tokens as bait; once you enter, they slowly dump the price.
I tried to run early, but the redemption required a three-day unlock period, and I helplessly watched the price get halved.
Since then, I dare not touch those ridiculously high APY mines—they're all mathematical traps to fool newbies.
Now I only do low-risk staking with mainstream coin pairs, earning a few percent annually, just for peace of mind.
Some people around me are obsessed with "impermanent loss mining," but when stablecoins depeg, they lost half a year's salary in one day.
He said he read the audit report, but audits only check for code vulnerabilities, not the project team's integrity.
My current strategy is to avoid anything that requires locking assets for more than seven days; liquidity is more important than yield.
I always keep 30% stablecoins in my wallet so if a black swan event happens, I can scoop up some cheap chips.
The rest I hold honestly in $BTC and $ETH, no staking, no lending, just peace of mind.
Occasionally I play with small amounts in minor mines, but I set alarms to remind myself to check daily, and if anything feels off, I pull out.
Last time a friend rushed into a meme coin mine, the contract was attacked, the pool went to zero, and he cried in the bathroom for a long time.
I comforted him by saying just treat it as a lesson, but he replied the lesson was too expensive—it could feed him for three years at Sha County cuisine.
This industry is full of temptations: mining today, lending tomorrow, derivatives the day after, each waving at you.
But my experience is, the more tricks there are, the more traps there are; honestly holding spot assets lets me sleep soundly.
Now I keep most of my assets in cold wallets, too lazy to even keep them on exchanges, let alone stake.
I occasionally open my wallet to check the balance; if it goes up, I smile, if it goes down, it doesn't affect my mood cooking.
After all, if I shake the salt while cooking, I can fix it, but if I shake while trading, I might lose months of work.
Alright, the ribs are still stewing in the pot, I have to go flip them; this is way better than watching K-line charts. 比特币第五次减半将至：它真的会带来下一轮牛市吗？ 比特币减半，是写进协议里的固定机制。每产生21万个区块，矿工获得的区块奖励就会减少一半，平均约四年发生一次。此前，比特币已经经历了四次减半，区块奖励从最初的50 BTC一路降至目前的3.125 BTC。按照现有节奏，第五次减半预计将在2028年前后到来，届时奖励将进一步降至1.5625 BTC。 很多投资者习惯把减半与牛市直接画等号，但实际上，两者并不存在必然关系。过去几轮减半之后，比特币确实都出现过大幅上涨，可每个周期都有不同的外部因素参与其中，包括ICO热潮、疫情期间的全球宽松政策以及美国现货比特币ETF获批等。 减半真正改变的，是比特币新增供应的速度，而不是市场需求。供应增长放缓后，如果机构资金持续流入、监管环境改善、投资者风险偏好上升，供需关系可能进一步偏向买方；反过来，如果宏观环境恶化或者市场需求下降，减半同样无法阻止价格下跌。 矿工则是减半最直接的受影响群体。奖励下降意味着收入承压，效率较低的矿企可能退出，而拥有廉价电力和先进矿机的大型矿企更容易生存。部分矿企甚至开始把算力基础设施转向AI和高性能计算，以寻找新的利润来源。 Robinhood Trust Account Raised Over $150 Million in Funds Within Weeks of Launch, Average Account Size Around $500,000 Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated on September 4 that the company's Trust Accounts have surpassed $150 million in assets deposited by clients just weeks after launch, with an average account asset value of about $500,000. He emphasized that Robinhood originally served a new generation of first-time investors, and now that this group of clients continues to accumulate wealth, the company hopes to accompany and support them throughout their entire life and financial journey. Robinhood started with zero-commission stock trading, with core users being young, first-time investors. As this group of users ages and grows wealthier, their needs are expanding from simple stock trading to more complex wealth management services such as retirement planning, asset transfer, and tax arrangements. Trust Accounts are products designed specifically for these needs. Data shows that within just a few weeks of launch, it accumulated $150 million in assets, with an average account size of about $500,000, sending two layers of messages: first, the product had a fast cold start; second, it attracted not the traditional impression of young novice users, but mature customers with considerable wealth accumulation, which corresponds to the CEO's emphasis on full-lifecycle financial service positioning. For Robinhood, the significance of this progress lies in the upward expansion of its user base and deepening of its business model. This was one of the main concerns the market had in the pastMillion Big Brother @XXAntiWar, don't sell when Niulai comes, the data analyzed by Dan Sha today shows that Niulai's market has stabilized!!
2026.9.4 #Niulai Top 40 token holder address data changes
Pancake address: outflow 1.39%
Alpha address: inflow 10.14%
New entries in top 40: total 4 people, 2 increased positions, 1 ranking rose, 1 is gate
Dropped out of top 40: total 4 people, 3 moved to alpha, 1 fully exited
Top 40 increased positions: total 3 people, 2 increased positions, 1 transferred in
Top 40 decreased positions: total 2 people, both decreased positions
$Niulai Daily Key Summary:
The 4 new addresses entering the top 40 today did not buy in with empty positions; they all held some positions and then increased their holdings. Among the addresses that dropped out of the top 40, 3 moved to alpha, including the big brother who spent 1 million USD last time to buy in. Although only 3 people increased positions in the top 40, the amount increased was considerable, having a slight positive impact on the market. The 2 who decreased positions reduced very little. It has been 3 days since Dan Sha's last update, and the market has not deteriorated. The changes in the top addresses are not as dramatic as imagined. This statistics only show slight changes in about 10 addresses. However, Million Big Brother has deposited coins into alpha; hopefully, big brother won't sell, and the market should hold steady. That's about it. Dan Sha will continue to track the top addresses of Niulai. 小资金想在加密市场立足，最先要解决的不是赚多少，而是如何不轻易出局。比特币的波动看似随机，实则对仓位松散的人格外残酷。有人曾以1200U起步，四个月做到2.5万U，随后又增至3.8万U，全程没有经历爆仓。回看这个过程，靠的不是某次精准抄底，而是把资金管理和交易纪律放在了预测之前。 具体做法并不复杂，但执行起来需要极强的克制力。账户资金被严格切成三份：一份用于日内短线，每天只做一笔，到点就收；一份留给波段行情，等待趋势明确再介入，其余时间保持观望；最后一份则作为应急储备，几乎不动。看似保守，却为账户保留了足够的容错空间。 在交易频率上，原则是少做、做精。震荡行情中最容易磨损本金，与其频繁进出，不如等待趋势明朗后集中出手。当利润达到预期便及时止盈，若本金增长约20%，可考虑先抽离部分资金，让账户逐渐脱离风险区。 此外，所有操作都交由规则执行。预设2%的止损线，浮盈4%时主动减仓；亏损时不因不甘心而加倍补仓。情绪是交易中最昂贵的成本，而规则能替你挡住大部分冲动。 本金小并不可怕，可怕的是总想着快速暴富。分好仓位、管住节奏、守住纪律，让账户在市场中活得够久，复利自然会慢慢显现。市场从不缺机会，#沃勒：August inflation will determine whether there is a rate hike in September
For the crypto community, this is actually a short-term slightly bullish but not overly exciting signal. Because expectations for rate cuts or no hikes are rising, the US dollar and US Treasury yields are falling, which theoretically gives risk assets like BTC and ETH some breathing room. But the problem is also clear: **the real heavy hammer is still ahead—tonight's non-farm payrolls, next week's CPI and PPI.** As long as employment is weak and inflation continues to decline, the market will reprice "the Fed not hiking or even easing in the future"; conversely, if non-farm payrolls are strong and CPI rises again, this recent risk asset rebound is likely to be pushed back down.⚠️BTC breaks above the 80,000 mark, is the rebound just an appetizer? Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the real big event
BTC has firmly reclaimed the 80,000 level, showing strong short-term rebound momentum. Market bullish sentiment is heating up quickly, with AI sentiment statistics showing 56% bullish, and many beginning to anticipate a new major rally.
However, beneath the excitement, risks remain. Tonight's non-farm employment data is the key determinant of the short-term fate.
✅ Realistic supports for the bullish case
1. Standard Chartered Bank launched regulated BTC spot trading in the UAE, adding new narrative material for institutions and boosting market sentiment.
2. Price has reclaimed the 80,000 integer level, short-term bulls dominate, risk asset sentiment warms, and some short positions have been force-liquidated, pushing the market.
3. The market is betting on weaker employment and a cooling of Fed rate hike expectations.
⚠️ Hidden risks, don’t get carried away by the rebound
1. Much of this rally is expectation-driven, with the market pricing in positive scenarios ahead of time.
If the non-farm data exceeds expectations strongly, September rate hike expectations will rise again, and the 80,000 level could easily become a temporary top, leading to a rapid correction in risk assets.
2. Breaking above 80,000 does not mean a steady start of a major uptrend.
After surpassing this key integer level, volatility will spike sharply, with possible upward spikes or downward crashes. Contract stop-loss sweeps in both directions will be very fierce.
3. Small-cap coins will be tightly tethered to BTC.
Tonight, not only BTC faces a trial, but all coins including CORE and ETH will follow the market’s intense fluctuations. CORE deposits and withdrawals reopen at 5 PM, coinciding with the non-farm data, creating a double resonance that will further amplify volatility.
Three simple non-farm scenarios
🔹 Non-farm below expectations: employment weakens, rate hike expectations suppressed, BTC has a chance to continue testing new highs.
🔹 Non-farm meets expectations: maintains a wide range of intense oscillation around 80,000, with back-and-forth shakeouts.
🔹 Non-farm far exceeds expectations: hawkish expectations restart, 80,000 level under pressure, leading to a deep pullback.
The rebound is just a process, not the conclusion.
Don’t go all in long just because of the rise; tonight’s data release will provide the true direction 1. Fed's Dovish Speech at Waller: The Catalyst for the Market Waller stated: As long as inflation continues to decline, he supports pausing rate hikes in September. #沃勒: August inflation determines whether to raise rates in September. CME data shows the probability of a 25bp hike in September dropped from 63% to 50%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from 4.81% to 4.75%, and the US dollar index fell below 99. Once expectations for liquidity easing emerged, high-valuation, highly volatile US tech stocks and cryptocurrencies strengthened in tandem. 2. Initial jobless claims data weakened more than expected, adding to the cake. Last week, initial jobless claims in the US exceeded expectations, indicating the labor market is starting to cool. The Fed has no need to rush to raise rates, further reinforcing the market consensus that "rates have peaked." U.S. stocks opened higher and continued to grow, with the Nasdaq rising as much as 1.4%. Crypto concept stocks like Coinbase and Strategy surged over 10% intraday, with sentiment quickly spreading through the crypto community $BTC $ETH $OKB 3. Leveraged short squeeze accelerates the rise. In recent days, the market was under continuous pressure, with a large accumulation of short positions. Prices broke through key resistance levels upward, short positions repeatedly triggered stop-losses and forced liquidations, and passive buying triggered a chain rally—commonly known as a "short squeeze," pushing the gains to another level. #沃勒: August inflation determines whether to raise interest rates in September 4. Capital rotation, flowing into high-beta assets After interest rate pressure eased, funds first bought US AI and tech leaders, then spread outward, pouring into cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin surged above 810#沃勒：August inflation will decide whether to raise rates in September
Now, a rate hike in September is no longer set in stone; the real make-or-break factor is next week's CPI.
Waller's stance is very clear:
If inflation continues to cool down, there's no need to raise rates; if inflation strengthens again, the door to a September rate hike will remain open.
So although tonight's nonfarm payrolls are important, they are not the final word.
The real market direction is decided by nonfarm payrolls → CPI → FOMC.
If nonfarm payrolls weaken and next week's CPI continues to cool, the dollar and US Treasury yields may continue to fall, expectations for a September rate hike will decrease, and BTC will have a chance to hold above 80,000 and continue upward.
Conversely, if employment is strong and inflation rebounds, then trouble arises. The Fed has no reason to rush a pivot, and BTC will continue to face pressure.
The most interesting thing now is:
The market originally priced the probability of a September rate hike above 70%, but after Waller's speech, it has returned to around 50%.
This shows the market has actually started to waver.
Tonight watch the nonfarm payrolls, next week watch the CPI.
As long as inflation continues to cool, I still lean towards: $BTC looking for low buy opportunities during this pullback.BTC is approaching 82,000,
everyone has their own scenario,
1. Directly rush to 85,000, then oscillate between 85,000-76,000 for 3 months, surge to 100,000 in January next year, then drop sharply to 40,000.
2. High point near 82,000, high-level oscillation, directly retest 70,000-65,000, oscillate between 82,000-65,000 for 3-5 months, break through 83,000 with volume and hold steady in January 2027, surge to 100,000, starting a one-sided bull market.
3. The dog whales say nothing, blindly push to 100,000 without looking back, continue to rise, by 2029 BTC reaches 300,000 USD. The US sells off its national strategic reserves, directly paying off 4 trillion USD debt. But by 2029, Trump is already out of office.
Which scenario do you think is more reasonable, or do you have other scenarios? Let's talk it over? $BTC #Polymarket拟融资10亿美元，估值210亿美元 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 #30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% "$BTC and others break the wall, $ETH and others change faces, $SOL and others wait for the wind"
$BTC: The 80,000 mark is back, but bulls and bears are arguing like a marketplace. On one side, shouting "last chance to get on board, aiming for 100,000," on the other, sneering "consolidation isn't enough, if it dips back to 70,000, no escape." The key lies in the wall between 83,000 and 86,000 — if volume breaks through, 100,000 is really not far; if it can't break, 70,000 to 72,000 is waiting to catch people. Funds are also split; some big players are frantically selling to cash out, while institutions hold huge sums ready to add positions. The ETF channel is widening, but all the money is concentrated in the hands of the big players, retail investors can only watch their moods. Don't rush to jump in, wait until the wall breaks, whoever wants to be cannon fodder can be.
$ETH: 2,500 has been reached, but the bears' faces have turned green. RSI hit 89, overbought to the point even your own mother wouldn't recognize it, yet huge whales are aggressively buying at low levels, plus big players increasing holdings, forcefully pushing the price up. 2,500 is a psychological barrier; if it doesn't hold, it's a double top; if it holds, it might push to 2,566. Chasing longs now? Risky. Better wait for a pullback to 2,400 before watching. To those stubbornly holding on, I respect you as a tough one, but don't make your account suffer.
$SOL: There's an unlucky guy who held for a year, shorted from 180 all the way to 243, then reversed to long and the market immediately crashed to 140, almost liquidated. Now $SOL is still hovering between 140-150, falling but not rising, completely without spirit. Don't expect an independent rally in the short term unless BTC leads the way. Don't be like that guy stubbornly holding on; admit defeat when you should, there are plenty of opportunities, no need to fight with one coin for a lifetime.
Control your hands, wait for signals, don't be the bag holder【Tonight's Nonfarm Preview: Cryptocurrency Faces Directional Choice】
At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. will release August's nonfarm payroll data. This is not just an employment report but could be a key pricing factor for whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September.
Currently, the market estimates about a 50% chance of a rate hike in September, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is around 4.35%, and the dollar index is about 99.01. BTC broke through $80,000 after Fed Governor Waller signaled dovishness and is currently holding near $80,900. If nonfarm employment and wage growth significantly exceed expectations, the market may raise the probability of a rate hike, pushing U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which would put short-term pressure on risk assets like BTC and ETH; if the data is weaker than expected, rate hike expectations may continue to decline, benefiting the crypto market, but if employment deteriorates too much, it could also trigger recession concerns. Therefore, what truly matters is not simply whether the data is "good or bad," but the gap between the data and market expectations.
The funding side is temporarily bullish: On September 3, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $277 million. However, BTC contract open interest has risen to about $26.8 billion, increasing 5.87% in 24 hours, indicating rapid leverage accumulation during the rally, which could lead to sharp two-way volatility after the data release.
Short-term focus on three levels: Holding above $82,000 could continue the strong trend; holding $80,000 maintains a bullish consolidation; breaking below $78,000 calls for caution against false breakouts and long liquidations. Before the nonfarm release, please manage your positions carefully. 🚨【Has the Fed eased? Opportunities for BTC, ETH, and SOL have arrived】
Waller's recent speech indeed sent an important signal: if inflation continues to cool down, he tends to support keeping interest rates unchanged in September. After the news came out, the market's probability of a rate hike in September clearly dropped, U.S. Treasury yields fell back, and risk asset sentiment simultaneously recovered.
This is certainly positive for BTC, ETH, and SOL in the short term.
But I think it's still too early to directly call it a “bull market start.”
The logic is simple:
🔥 Inflation continues to cool + weakening employment → further decline in rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields fall → liquidity improves → BTC has a chance to continue challenging higher levels.
⚠️ Inflation heats up again + employment remains strong → Waller's dovish expectations may quickly reverse → the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthen again → the crypto market is prone to rapid pullbacks.
So the real judge going forward is the nonfarm payrolls + next week's CPI. The market has already dropped from nearly 60% rate hike expectations to about 50%, indicating expectations themselves are swinging rapidly.
My strategy remains: the direction can be slightly bullish, but position sizing should avoid FOMO.
BTC watches the trend, ETH watches resilience, SOL watches risk appetite.
It's easiest to get impulsive when good news appears; truly comfortable markets usually emerge after data consistently supports it and yields steadily decline.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 If you missed $UNI, you can take a look at $ARB
Robinhood Chain now has a TVL of about $735 million, with a 24-hour DEX trading volume of $1.57 billion. ARB takes 10% of Robinhood Chain's protocol net revenue, of which 8% goes to the DAO and 2% to the developer fund, but it is neither Gas nor does it burn ARB with each transaction.
UNI has already taken off, you can check out ARB. Although ARB has also risen a lot in recent days, from a monthly chart perspective, it is still at the bottom. Waller said that the August inflation data will determine what vote he votes for in September. #沃勒: August inflation determines whether to raise rates in September, and the market immediately plunged the probability of a hike from 63.2% to 50.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield retreated. Bitcoin returned above $80,000. Everything looked like a "dovish victory." But if you stared at the 50.4% figure for more than three seconds, you would notice something strange: the market wasn't celebrating "no rate hikes," it was celebrating "not knowing." And even stranger was behind it: the figure Waller called "decisive figure"—the August CPI—was not released until September 11. Before that, it didn't exist yet. A core Fed policymaker had just handed the steering wheel of global asset pricing to a data point that hadn't even been born. Replace the subject with "that nonexistent number." If the subject is "Waller," the story is a "dovish signal." If the subject is "rate hike probability," the story is "expected cooling." But if the subject is the CPI figure, which will be born on September 11 and is still blank at this moment, the whole narrative becomes absurd. This number now counts nothing. It has no numbers, no direction, no tradable entity. But Waller has already tied the fate of the September FOMC to it in advance. It is not even born and already has pricing power. What does this mean? It means that from now until September 11, global markets will price around a "blank." Every trader is betting on "what that number will be," and$BTC $ETH
El Salvador plans to stop increasing its Bitcoin holdings with public funds, and the Chivo e-wallet has basically withdrawn from public participation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it has reached a staff-level agreement with the Salvadoran authorities on the second and third combined reviews under the extended fund facility. If approved by the IMF Executive Board, El Salvador will receive approximately $140 million (101.96 million SDR). Regarding Bitcoin-related arrangements, the IMF confirmed several key facts: the Chivo e-wallet has basically withdrawn from public participation, with majority ownership and operational control transferred to private operators; Bitcoin increases since the first review have been verified by documentation as coming from private donations, with no use of public resources; El Salvador has committed that, apart from recorded private donations, there will be no further Bitcoin acquisitions in the future. Both parties also reached an understanding on modernizing the legal, regulatory, and supervisory framework for digital assets, as well as strengthening governance and risk management arrangements for public sector crypto asset holdings. Structural reforms including pension reform, civil service reform, strengthening central bank institutions and financial conditions, and enhancing the AML/CFT framework will continue. The IMF emphasized that strong project ownership and timely implementation of reforms remain crucial to further strengthening macroeconomic stability and resilience, and to creating conditions for sustainable and inclusive private sector-led growth.Tonight's non-farm payrolls may determine whether $BTC's rise above $80,000 is a real breakthrough or just another false move.
The market expects about 56,000 new non-farm jobs in the US for August, a recovery compared to July's decrease of 23,000.
Currently, BTC is around $81,000. Yesterday's rebound largely benefited from the decline in US Treasury yields and the cooling of rate hike expectations. $ZEC
So tonight, we can't just look at the number of new jobs.
If the data is clearly stronger than expected, US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations may rise again, putting pressure on BTC's $80,000 level. $ARB
If the data is mildly weak, yields will continue to fall, and BTC will have a chance to truly turn $80,000 into support.
But if the employment data is too poor, the market might shift from trading easing to worrying about a recession, which is also bad for risk assets.
For BTC, the most comfortable outcome is not a collapse in non-farm payrolls, but a cooling in employment without an economic slowdown.
The data will be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time. First, let's see if $80,000 can hold before talking about higher levels.
The above is just a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 9.4, Nonfarm Payrolls headline the show! Gold bulls remain active!
The biggest market trump card this week—the US August Nonfarm Payroll data—is the most critical employment pricing data before the September Fed meeting. It directly determines short-term US Treasury yields, the strength of the dollar, and firmly locks in the short-term trend direction for gold. Combining current macro expectations and market structure, the main gold theme is clear: the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged, and the Nonfarm Payrolls are the catalyst for a new round of upward momentum.
Macro core: Nonfarm Payrolls generally favor gold, with rate cut expectations supporting the bulls. Recent US leading employment data have collectively weakened; ADP private employment and initial jobless claims both missed expectations, fully indicating a continued cooling in the US labor market and waning economic resilience.
The core trading logic for this Nonfarm Payrolls release is very clear:
1. Weak Nonfarm (high probability): Cooling employment data directly suppress Fed rate hike expectations and strengthen September rate cut easing expectations. The dollar and US Treasury yields fall in tandem, highlighting gold’s advantage as a non-yielding asset, solidly benefiting gold price rebounds and rallies.
2. Slightly better-than-expected Nonfarm: Even if data temporarily improve, it only causes a short-term minor bearish shakeout and does not change the overall employment slowdown trend. Gold’s pullback space is extremely limited, presenting a low-level buying opportunity.
3. Neutral data: Maintain easing expectations unchanged, gold continues a volatile upward pattern with a steadily rising base.
Regardless of Nonfarm results, the major bullish trend for gold remains intact. Poor data directly lift prices, good data cause pullbacks that offer opportunities. This is the core trading theme for gold this week.
The gold bullish trend has already stabilized and gathered strength in advance. The previous deep pullback has fully digested rate hike bearish sentiment. Currently, the price has returned above the key 4400 level, completing a bottoming and stabilization phase, with multiple bullish signals appearing on the chart.
Low-level chips have fully rotated, short-sell pressure exhausted, and downward momentum completely faded. Short-term moving averages are turning upward, and the daily chart shows a bottoming and rising structure. Supported by both safe-haven and easing logic, the downside support is extremely solid.
All current pullbacks are merely technical corrections and shakeouts within the uptrend, not trend reversals. Every retracement is a good opportunity for bulls to build positions, with no risk of sustained declines.
Strategy: Buy in batches on dips to 4450-4420, target 4490→4550, watch for breakouts toward 4630-4700.
This round of gold movement is not just a rebound; it is a trend reversal initiating a new upward phase. Abandon bearish thinking, closely follow the easing liquidity main theme, manage position sizing well, and strictly control risk!The SEC calls on crypto companies to return, but Standard Chartered landed in Dubai first—where is the US sincerity?
On the same day the US SEC said it wants to bring crypto companies back with clear rules, Standard Chartered Bank opened BTC/ETH spot trading for institutions in Dubai—does the US really want to keep them, or is it just empty talk? The root cause of crypto companies leaving for so many years lies in unclear regulation. With unclear rules, businesses and taxes move together.
Now using new regulations as a banner to attract investment, whether they can really bring people back depends on the implementation details and enforcement strength. Anyone can shout slogans; Standard Chartered chose Dubai because the rules there were implemented first. Clear rules themselves are the best competitiveness; whoever lands first gets the funds, not by words.
Do you think the US this time really wants to give crypto companies a lifeline, or is it just for show?
$BTC
#SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注