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🔥$BTC Nonfarm payrolls contradict Waller, next up are CPI and FOMC reports
In September, when trading BTC, don’t just focus on the 79k horizontal line; three reports are more useful than drawing lines. The first report, Nonfarm payrolls, is out: 162,000 far exceeds expectations. Waller recently dovishly said "if inflation continues to decline, we will hold steady," but with the employment surge, the dovish tone was immediately withdrawn by the personnel department; strong employment = economy not cooling = high interest rates can persist = interest-free assets get hit first. The second report, August CPI/core CPI around September 11: if core CPI is relatively hot month-over-month and oil prices push the energy component higher, the 10-year US Treasury yield will push above about 4.8%, making BTC’s 79k–81k resistance tougher; if core CPI cools, the market will reprice "one rate hike then pause," allowing a second test of 81k. The third report, FOMC on September 15–16: the key is not whether to hike 25bp, but the dot plot—if after hiking they say "watch the data," it could trigger a sell-off followed by a rebound; if they hint at another hike in December, BTC could fall back to 78k or even test 75k–76k.
Combined with chip data, it’s clearer: 68% of profit-taking is near 79k and can sell anytime; breaking the 71k short-term cost line will become a stop-loss wall; if the 83k–86k long-term supply is not absorbed, don’t talk about a trend. Expectation play: strong Nonfarm + strong CPI + ETF outflows again → test 78k, breaking 76k won’t hold; Nonfarm already priced in + weak CPI + ETF weekly net inflows → grind 79k to 81k, if volume expands at 81k then look to 83k. Chasing 81k low or deep drops without ETF support is risky.
$BTC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
BTC-gold ratio hits a new high since January, testing the sustainability of the scarce asset rally
After Bitcoin stabilized above the $80,000 mark, the market focus has shifted from a simple price breakthrough to whether its relative strength compared to the traditional safe-haven asset gold can continue.
From a macro perspective, this round of high-level consolidation is supported by two core conditions: the market's expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes continue to cool down, and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, opening up upside space for risk assets. There has been a structural change in capital flows; the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of funds overall in August, but since early September, capital flows have turned into two-way fluctuations, with institutions yet to form sustained one-sided buying, and incremental momentum has slowed.
A key indicator sends a signal: currently, one Bitcoin can be exchanged for about 18.17 ounces of gold, with the BTC-gold ratio reaching the highest point since January this year. Meanwhile, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has climbed to its highest level since 2020. Behind this phenomenon lies the global market's shared concerns about debt expansion and fiat currency purchasing power dilution, with these two scarce assets being placed into the same allocation framework by investors.Storage Triumvirate Soars on September 4: SanDisk ($SNDK) closed at $1740, surging 11.90%; Micron ($MU) closed at $1016.59, up 6.10%; SK Hynix ADR ($SKHYNIX) closed at $177, rising 8.14%. Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) jumped 6.61% in a single day, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 3%.
Why the collective rebound? There are three core reasons:
1. AI computing power demand continues to explode. Dell's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, with an AI server backlog of $95 billion, directly proving that tech giants are frantically buying every available storage wafer. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and NAND flash remain in short supply, with Micron's most advanced storage production lines booked through the end of 2026.
2. Severe supply-demand mismatch. According to TrendForce data, DRAM contract prices surged 58% to 63% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, while NAND Flash soared 70% to 75%. Major manufacturers are shifting capacity toward AI, further squeezing supply.
3. Institutions are actively bullish. Lynx Equity released a research report predicting years of shortages in the storage industry, setting price targets of $1325 for Micron and $2450 for SanDisk, effectively boosting market sentiment.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (September 5)
Bears dominated all day, long positions liquidated by one-sided clearing, early volume extremely shrank, 24-hour surge to $8,265 — extremely low concentration shows liquidations almost entirely released at the end of the session
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $127.48 $127.48 $0
4 hours $231.93 $231.93 $0
12 hours $231.93 $231.93 $0
24 hours $8,265.93 $8,265.93 $0
1-hour bears extremely dominated, long liquidation $127.48 while shorts $0; 4-hour bears maintained extreme dominance, volume slightly increased to $231.93; 12-hour bears maintained extreme dominance, volume completely stagnant (identical to 4-hour data); 24-hour bears extremely dominated close, long liquidation $8,265.93 while shorts $0, cumulative liquidation $8,265.93. Since short liquidation is always 0, leverage multiple cannot be calculated. Volume trajectory: $127→$231→$231→$8,265, 12-hour liquidation accounts for only 2.8% of 24-hour total, extremely low concentration — liquidations almost entirely released at the very last moment of the session. Leverage recommended to compress within 3x, direction highly consistent but volume small, avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 5
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations reigniting rate hike bets, Bitcoin under short-term pressure but the "digital gold" narrative remains intact, OKX Prophet includes FOMC decision in prediction pool.
📊 Nonfarm 162,000 far exceeds expectations: September rate hike probability returns to 60%
On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 55,000; July revised from -23,000 to +21,000; June revised from 20,000 to 31,000, totaling an upward revision of 55,000. Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, hourly wage growth slowed to 3.6% YoY, the slowest since July 2024. CME shows September rate hike probability rising from 50/50 to about 60%, dollar surged, US Treasury yields sharply rose. Nonfarm is just the "appetizer" — September 11 CPI is the core variable deciding September rate hike.
₿ Bitcoin under short-term pressure: gold ratio remains high at 18.17
After nonfarm, Bitcoin retreated from above $81,000, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000. Short-term suppression comes from rising rate hike expectations, but as of September 4, Bitcoin-to-gold ratio rose to 18.17, the highest since January. The revaluation of fiat credit after US debt surpasses $40 trillion is driving investors to buy both Bitcoin and gold to hedge government debt inflation risk. The "digital gold" narrative remains intact.
🔮 OKX Prophet launches FOMC rate prediction
OKX "Prophet" Season 2 has included September FOMC rate decision prediction in the pool, users can use free XP to judge whether the Fed will hike rates, sharing a $600,000 prize pool covering football, esports, F1, and macro data tracks.
💎 Summary
August nonfarm 162,000 far exceeded expectations pushing September rate hike probability back to 60%, but next week's CPI is the final verdict; Bitcoin under short-term pressure falling below $80,000, but gold ratio remains high at 18.17, "digital gold" narrative unbroken; OKX Prophet includes FOMC prediction in $600,000 prize pool, prediction market track continues to expand. CORE liquidation data shows an extreme "end-of-session surge" structure — early volume extremely shrank (1 hour $127, 4-12 hours only $231), 24-hour surged to $8,265, 2.8% extremely low concentration indicates whales idled all day, completing targeted clearing only at the end of the session. Direction highly consistent but volume small, just a ripple in the big picture. When employment data, asset pricing, and prediction markets converge in the same week — the market is waiting for next week's CPI final answer. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 🚨 Is this the power of the non-farm payrolls? $BTC, $ETH, $SOL none of them escaped!
Before the data came out, BTC was still around 81,000, ETH stood at 2,530, and the market was still immersed in Waller's dovish expectations. The result: August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate still at 4.1%, directly resetting the market's interest rate expectations.
The logic is actually very simple:
Strong employment → rising rate hike expectations → yields go up → risk assets under pressure → leveraged longs forced to stop out.
BTC once fell below 80,000, ETH quickly dropped from around 2,530, and high Beta assets like SOL saw further amplified declines. Even more severe, over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network in a short time, indicating this was not just spot selling pressure but a leveraged stampede.
But I actually don't think it's time to shout "bull market over" yet.
⚠️ The real key is whether it can recover after the drop.
If 80,000 is firmly held again, it means there is still support below; if 80,000 turns from support into resistance, then we must guard against the market continuing downward to seek liquidity.
Next, don't rush to guess the bottom; CPI is the second card.
Non-farm payrolls are responsible for changing expectations, CPI decides whether these expectations can continue.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 A few days ago, the Federal Reserve said it was paying more attention to next week's CPI data rather than the non-farm payrolls, but the non-farm payrolls came out very strong. Such strong non-farm payrolls indicate that US employment is very good, and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%. What does Trump need for the midterm elections? He needs low interest rates, a high stock market, and good employment to boost his votes. Now that the non-farm payrolls are so strong, doesn't that highlight how good the employment environment was during Trump's tenure? Moreover, Trump immediately jumped out to pressure the Federal Reserve, saying that with such good data, they should cut interest rates, or else cut off all trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the US. This gave Powell a way out. Also, Musk's spending has already started, indicating they are preparing for the November midterm elections. So, in the near future, is it possible that the war will stop, crude oil prices will fall, and inflation will ease? Then Powell can use this opportunity to maintain interest rates or even restart rate cuts if the data is excellent, so buy the dip. This is just my personal opinion for reference only. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
$ETH $CORE Rumors About Multiple Exchanges Delisting CORE: Clarifying Delisting VS Temporary Suspension,
Circulating in the community is a list of many exchanges "delisting CORE," causing panic for many who see it directly. Here, we need to distinguish two completely different matters: permanent delisting of trading pairs vs. temporary suspension of deposits and withdrawals during a hard fork maintenance. The community messages mix these two, amplifying the panic.
📝 Information Breakdown
1. Permanent Delisting (a few small and medium platforms)
KuCoin, Phemex, TEBBIT, CoinEx and some smaller exchanges chose to delist CORE trading pairs and close deposits and withdrawals after the vulnerability incident, which is a platform's independent decision.
2. Mainstream Large Platforms: Only temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals during the hard fork, not delisted
OKX, Coinbase, Bitget, LBank, Bithumb, Coinone:
During the hard fork upgrade window, network deposits and withdrawals were temporarily closed to prevent fork confusion and token disorder. This is a standard risk-avoidance operation by exchanges when a public chain has bugs.
Now that the hard fork has been completed, mainstream platforms like OKX have fully restored deposits and withdrawals, and trading pairs remain normal; this is not a permanent delisting.
OKX only delisted the "on-chain coin-earning staking products," while spot trading and deposit/withdrawal functions have returned.
⚠️ Key Points That Are Easily Misleading
1. Mixing "temporary suspension for maintenance" and "permanent delisting" together gives the false impression that many top exchanges are collectively abandoning CORE, which is misinformation spread in the community.
2. Some small and medium exchanges choosing to delist objectively reflects a shift in risk assessment after the incident, which is a real negative factor.
3. Although mainstream exchanges have resumed services, after the vulnerability incident, institutions and exchanges will raise risk control thresholds for the project, making future listings and collaborations more cautious.
Market Reality Insights
- The negative impact has already been priced in through a round of price digestion, but continued delisting by smaller exchanges will reduce trading channels and liquidity, which is a medium- to long-term suppressive factor.
- Do not panic excessively over rumors of "all exchanges delisting," nor completely ignore the real risk of delisting by some platforms.
- Distinguish facts: major exchanges have resumed trading and deposits/withdrawals; some small and medium exchanges have permanently delisted.
Summary: The vulnerability incident indeed brought costs to CORE at the exchange level, but the online rumor of "top exchanges collectively delisting" is information confusion. When reading news, prioritize official exchange announcements and do not directly copy group chat screenshots.Ridiculously high!
Robinhood Chain's single-day DEX trading volume hit $1.69 billion
Accounting for 17% globally
But its own users only contribute 1%-2%
Pure crypto-native users are playing
Robinhood insiders haven't woken up yet
TVL up 90% in thirty days
Ranked twelfth across the entire network
Uniswap intermediated 77% of the trading volume
This chain is becoming Uniswap's backyard
I'm watching closely
Waiting for Robinhood's own users to truly enter the market
That will be the real signal of retail FOMO
Right now it's all whales and scientists quietly playing
If its own users don't take the baton, how long can this chain last?
$HOOD #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 On nonfarm payroll night, bulls were sent off by a single data line. During that wave of liquidations in the early morning, how many people shouted about watching bulls during the day and were woken up by liquidation notices at night? I actually didn't sleep well last night and watched the market until 3 a.m. $BTC was firmly holding at 81,000 before the data release, and $ETH at 2,530, the market was still digesting Waller's hawkish statement. At that time, the market felt like everyone was waiting for a direction, but no one dared to make the first move. But when the nonfarm payroll data came out, 162,000 new jobs were added, far exceeding expectations. This figure was not simply "better than expected"—it directly shattered the market's illusions about a rate cut in September. Rate hike bets heated, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets were under full pressure. The logic was terrifyingly clear: good jobs → inflation worries → rate hike expectations → strong USD → crypto dropped. $BTC directly fell below 78,000, a daily drop of nearly 4.5%. $ETH worse, sliding from 2530 all the way to around 2400, down more than 5%, now barely catching its breath at 2456. $SOL was not spared either; the entire market seemed to have a collective downturn switched. The harshest was that round of liquidation. In less than an hour, over $200 million was liquidated across the internet, with long positions contributing 186 million. I had previously placed a long ETH position near 2400, with a stop-loss set at 2350, narrowly avoiding disaster, but a friend's heavy long position in the group was immediately wiped out, causing the account to shrink by 40%. At times like this, technical analysis basically fails. Drawing lines, checking support, counting waves—all of it#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
Just finished reviewing the US August nonfarm payroll data, honestly a bit surprising.
This time, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market originally expected less than 60,000, massively exceeding everyone's estimates. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%. Previously, the forecast range given by institutions was at best 121,000, but the actual data went beyond the upper limit of that range.
Once the data was released, market sentiment immediately shifted. The probability of a rate hike in September in the swap market jumped to over 60%, whereas before the release it was about 50%.
However, it’s not time to draw final conclusions yet. Fed Governor Waller clearly stated that inflation is the key: if inflation improves, they will hold steady; if inflation remains high, they tend to raise rates. The real highlight is the August CPI on September 11, with the September FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th.
There is already divergence in the market. Bank of America treats the nonfarm data as an appetizer, believing a rate hike in September is very likely; Morgan Stanley has the opposite view, predicting rates will remain unchanged, estimating core CPI month-over-month at 0.23%.
In short, nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; the real direction will be decided by the upcoming inflation data. Strong employment gives hawks confidence, but whether inflation keeps pace is the ultimate deciding factor.
Curious to hear everyone’s thoughts: do you think the CPI will push for a rate hike, or will it cause the Fed to pause?This looks more like macro repricing than a crypto-specific break. BTC at $79.6K is down 1.36%, with ETH and SOL slightly weaker as August payrolls beat expectations. That keeps policy sensitivity elevated, so I would treat the next rates signal as more important than today's red tape.
Not advice, just analysis.Reviewing the brutal market upheaval on September 4th (Friday Nonfarm Payroll day):
The nonfarm data exploded with +162,000 (expected only 56,000), nearly 3 times the forecast! Market expectations instantly reversed from rate cuts to hikes, with CME betting the probability of a September rate hike soaring above 60%. All the overnight short squeeze gains were completely wiped out by this blow.
BTC fell accordingly to $79,692, and SOL led the drop with a 3.5% plunge. This spike liquidated a large amount of long positions chasing highs. Although the daily-level major long structure hasn't completely broken down, the top momentum has weakened for three consecutive times.
On the macro side, the restart of rate hike expectations intensifies risk-off sentiment; geopolitically, the Middle East situation is heating up, and the long-short battle has entered a white-hot phase.
Current trading discipline must be strictly followed:
Never blindly bottom-fish: don't try to catch a falling knife around $79K by going long on the dip.
Never blindly short naked: avoid naked shorts at 1H oversold rebounds; wait for price to truly break below $78K for confirmation or for a rebound to meet resistance with volume before following on the right side.
Position management: with event week and next week's upcoming CPI release, absolutely do not go full position to tough it out.
#BTC #Bitcoin #NonfarmShock #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingLog$BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
The blockbuster nonfarm payroll data has landed, directly shaking global asset pricing.
In August, the US seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of less than 60,000 and the institutional forecast ceiling of only 121,000. The actual data significantly shattered the expected ceiling, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. This employment report, which far exceeded market imagination, means that the US labor market remains resilient and has not shown the cooling signals previously feared by the market.
After the data release, rate hike expectations quickly heated up. CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September rose directly from 50% to over 60%, with market betting sentiment clearly shifting. However, the nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; the core determinant of the Fed's final decision remains inflation. Just the day before, Waller clearly stated that whether inflation can continue to fall toward the 2% target is the decisive condition for a September rate hike.
The market's two major investment banks have already presented completely opposite views. Bank of America likens the nonfarm payrolls to an "appetizer" for the market, with the upcoming August CPI report next week being the "main course" that will decide the direction, still predicting a high probability of a September rate hike; meanwhile, Morgan Stanley holds a different view, estimating the core CPI month-over-month at only 0.23%, believing the Fed will ultimately choose to keep rates unchanged.
Strong employment has become an established fact, but inflation data still leaves huge uncertainty. The CPI report on September 11 will become the biggest market focus in the coming week. This inflation data will either follow the logic of strong employment to firmly confirm rate hike expectations or provide a cooling signal, prompting the Fed to once again pause action at the September policy meeting.
The divergence between bulls and bears has already widened, with gold, BTC, the US dollar, and US Treasuries all entering a critical window. Until the CPI dust settles, the market's volatile game will not end; the real big move awaits the inflation data reveal next week.the Robinhood Chain question from @termix_ai made me think less about expansion and more about fragmentation.
BNB Chain and Base already give multiple settlement environments. adding another chain could widen distribution, especially if new kinds of tokenized assets and onchain agents live there.
but every extra chain also creates a harder design problem.
does an agent build one reputation across the whole market, or several reputations depending on where it transacts.
#DailyOrbit $ZEC ZEC Cost: In the early days, it could be mined with GPUs, but now it has entered the ASIC miner era. The current main model is the Z15 Pro, with a single unit hashrate of about 840 KSol/s, power consumption of 2780 watts, requiring about 66.7 kWh of electricity per day. Machines are usually placed in professional mining farms, and costs include not only electricity but also hosting, maintenance, and other expenses.
Zcash produces a block approximately every 75 seconds on average, with each block yielding 1.25 ZEC. Calculated, the entire network's miners collectively earn about 1440 ZEC per day. These coins are not all retained by miners. Mining farms must pay electricity bills daily, and miners usually sell part of their output; how much they keep depends on electricity prices, financial strength, and market outlook.
Based on an estimated total network hashrate of about 24–25 GSol/s in late August 2026, a single Z15 Pro can mine about 0.05 ZEC per day. If the comprehensive electricity price is $0.068–0.07 per kWh, the cost is around $90–95; if the electricity price reaches $0.1, the shutdown price would be about $136. Therefore, low electricity price mining farms can sustain longer, while miners with high electricity costs are more likely to exit when the market declines. 1. ETH On-Chain Deposit Data to Exchanges: Over 4 days, 142,800 ETH were transferred into major centralized exchanges. Based on an average price of $2,416, this amounts to approximately $345 million. - Fund Behavior: Large holding addresses moved funds in batches from offline cold wallets and after staking unlocks to centralized exchanges (CEX). On-chain markets generally interpret "large transfers to exchanges" as potential sell signals. - Not all represent immediate sell-offs: some are for hedging, arbitrage, or cross-exchange trading, but objectively, the liquid tokens available for sale on exchanges have significantly increased, raising short-term selling pressure. 2. ETF Fund Flows Show a Clear Divergence: 1. BTC Spot ETF: Net inflow of $101 million in a single day (September 2), with BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as the main buyer; institutional funds continue to accumulate BTC positions. 2. ETH Spot ETF: Net outflow of $48.2 million during the same period, indicating redemptions. On one side, Bitcoin ETFs are attracting capital, while on the other, Ethereum ETFs are seeing withdrawals. Institutional funds are rebalancing positions between the two leading cryptocurrencies. 3. Underlying Logic Breakdown: 1. Macro Level: Non-farm payroll data was hawkish, increasing market risk aversion. Within crypto assets, BTC is regarded as the "safe haven" within the sector, with funds prioritizing BTC accumulation. ETH, due to DeFi, Layer 2 solutions, and on-chain gas fees, has a more cyclical and elastic market sentiment, making it more prone to being reduced during sideways markets. 2. Token Behavior: Some early ETH whales and institutional holders are taking profits during this rebound, moving coins intoBitcoin regains market focus, and corporate crypto asset allocation is accelerating📊
At the end of August, the crypto market rebounded, with Bitcoin rising about 23%, directly driving Bitcoin mining companies that had actively shifted to AI business back into high-beta stocks. Some mining companies' stock prices increased by 41% to 67%, outperforming many AI infrastructure companies.
Three key drivers of this surge🔑
1️⃣ The U.S. Treasury expands Treasury buybacks
2️⃣ The White House signals positive crypto regulation
3️⃣ Over $1.6 billion in short positions were liquidated
A new variable worth noting - the Stablecoin Alliance💡
Twenty-one major financial institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citibank plan to establish a new company aiming to launch a U.S. dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027, then expand to other G7 currencies for cross-border payments and digital asset settlements.
This rebound differs from previous pure capital inflows, adding two new clues: corporate balance sheet allocation and traditional financial institutions entering stablecoins. This indicates crypto assets are being incorporated into long-term strategic plans by more mainstream institutional players, not just short-term trading funds.
$BTC ← #🏛-₿-Crypto Analysis--Daily >
Market Sentiment
🟡 Cautiously Bullish
Report Date
2026-09-04
Mainline Changes
⚡ The mainline has changed — Yesterday we were worried that Ethereum ETF outflows and the escalation of the Iran situation would crush market sentiment, but today after the nonfarm payroll data blew past expectations, the crypto market rose instead of falling. Bitcoin ETF single-day inflows of $730 million hit the largest in nearly 8 months, and the market shifted to risk-on.
🎯 Today's Focus — ZEC·Position Reversal
ZEC surged about 20% within two days, breaking through $1000. The direct trigger was short sellers reportedly losing $34 million in a single day, combined with continuous inflows into privacy pools and ZEC's price ratio against Monero accelerating upward. This looks less like leveraged speculation and more like genuine buying within the sector, so the stance was raised from cautiously optimistic to bullish.
📌 Core Themes
· Bitcoin ETF single-day inflows of $730 million, the largest in nearly 8 months, with institutions increasing positions against the trend after the nonfarm data
· The Fear & Greed Index rose to 74 points, a near one-week high, showing market sentiment clearly shifting from cautious to optimistic
· Zcash surged nearly 20% in one day, breaking $1000, short sellers lost $34 million, driving the privacy coin sector collectively stronger
· Stablecoin total market cap increased by 0.36% in 24 hours, indicating there are still new funds waiting to enter off-exchange
📰 News Highlights
· Zcash surged nearly 20% in one day, breaking $1000, short sellers lost $34 million in a single day, indicating genuine buying in the privacy coin sector rather than speculation
The market worries the Fed is more likely to raise rates, but the crypto market instead took the opportunity to rally, showing this risk appetite did not follow traditional macro logic
· Conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have damaged refineries, pushing diesel prices to historic highs, which will heighten inflation concerns and pose a medium-term risk hanging over risk assets
· The global bond market is starting to worry about inflation returning, causing selling pressure. If this concern spreads to stocks, it could eventually affect crypto market risk appetite
🏃♂️ 24h Outlook
In the next 24 hours, the market will likely continue a cautiously optimistic atmosphere, but two variables need close monitoring: first, whether the Ethereum ETF can turn today's net inflow into a true continuous trend (currently it’s just the first day turning positive after outflows). If inflows continue tomorrow, it indicates institutional confidence is truly recovering; second, market expectations about whether the Fed will raise rates in September are still in flux. If upcoming inflation data is hawkish, it could interrupt this optimism unexpectedly driven by the nonfarm data. Additionally, the privacy coin sector’s rapid rise means if ZEC and others cannot hold their new highs in the short term, profit-taking may occur. The Iran situation and diesel price highs causing inflation risks are medium-term risks that require ongoing attention.
❌ Yesterday’s Outlook·Missed
Yesterday we said strong nonfarm data might suppress risk assets and pressure Bitcoin, but after August added 162,000 jobs far exceeding expectations, Bitcoin rose instead of falling, breaking through $81,000. ETF single-day inflows of $730 million hit a nearly 8-month high, so the directional judgment was wrong. $BTC $ETH $ZEC How to operate $ETH over the weekend?
Last night's nonfarm payroll data was quite a shock; many retail investors didn't react in time and have already stopped losses or been liquidated, while Caibao chose to watch the show before entering the market, aiming for steady wins.
Although this drop was mainly due to the bearish nonfarm data, another reason is that ETH had already experienced a rally earlier, breaking through key resistance levels multiple times. There were quite a few short-term profit-taking positions. Even before the nonfarm data, funds had started positioning, so once the data didn't meet market expectations, everyone chose to take profits.
The US stock market didn't fall much at the open because after digesting the initial panic, market funds are still focused on upcoming inflation data. Tech stocks haven't experienced sustained panic either. Plus, it's the last trading day on Friday; isn't it nice for Americans to take their money and enjoy the weekend?BTC is currently around $79,600, up 23% in 30 days, with $3.5 billion net inflow into ETFs in August hitting a yearly high, looking very strong. But the Fear and Greed Index has surged from 25 (fear) a month ago to 74 (greed) — the most comfortable entry window near 58,000 in June has already passed.
More troubling is that on September 4, the non-farm payrolls came out at 162,000 (expected 53,000), pushing the rate hike probability back to 59%. BTC dropped from 82,000 to below 80,000 that day. The institutional consensus confirmation line is to hold above 83,000 for two weeks, and currently, not a single condition has been met.
Meanwhile, three major events—CPI on September 11, bill voting on the 15th, and FOMC on the 16th—are packed within two weeks. September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin.
Conclusion: If you are not holding, don’t chase; wait for events to settle or for a pullback to 76,000–78,000 to build positions gradually; if you have a base position, hold it and consider partial profit-taking above 83,000. Right now, there is neither emotional discount nor trend confirmation, so it’s a no-man’s land; heavy positions are purely a bet on macro data.The U.S. Department of Labor released data on September 5 showing that nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, about 2.9 times the expected value, while reversing the net decrease of 23,000 in July. The private sector added 127,000 jobs, also significantly higher than the expected 45,000 and July's 30,000. This is the most significant deviation from expectations in employment data this year, completely overturning the recent narrative of a cooling labor market.
On the wage front, average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year in August, slightly above the expected 3.0%, but slightly down from July's 3.2%, with wage growth still in a moderate contraction range. Previously, ADP private sector employment increased by only 38,000 in August, the lowest since January this year, leading the market to generally expect weak nonfarm data; July job openings rose to 7.27 million, and layoffs fell to the lowest since January this year, providing a leading signal for this strong nonfarm report, but it was not fully priced in.
The stronger-than-expected rebound in nonfarm data will significantly strengthen discussions about a Fed rate hike in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, after the ADP data release, the market's probability expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in September was 62.2%; after the stronger-than-expected employment report, this probability is expected to rise further. #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, nearly three times the expectation. As soon as this data came out, the market panicked immediately—rate hike worries reignited, Bitcoin dropped 3%, and gold plummeted by $70.
But interestingly, Bitcoin ETFs saw an inflow of $730 million against the trend, and Trump also jumped out calling for rate cuts. This is interesting: on one side, retail investors are scared and selling off, while on the other, institutions are buying heavily.
The market is indeed panicking, but the panic is only in shallow funds.
To understand this, you need to grasp a counterintuitive logic: strong employment does not equal a healthy economy, nor does it mean the stock market should fall. $BTC $ZEC $USELESS #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Currently, $TRUMP is about $2.39, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $560 million and a circulating market cap of about $627 million. Trading seems lively, but the price has already retraced about 97% from the high of $73.43 set in January 2025. What's even more troublesome is that the supply pressure is not over. On September 18, about 28.69 million TRUMP tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 2.9% of total supply, worth approximately $68 million, and all these tokens belong to insiders. In recent days, the market has also focused on wallets related to the Trump team, with about $26.65 million of SOL already transferred. Combined with the upcoming unlock, funds have become somewhat more cautious. So $TRUMP is currently in an awkward position: trading volume is shockingly high, yet the price is still below its all-time high; On one hand, Trump is the biggest traffic gateway; on the other, there are ongoing unlocking and team wallet movements. The biggest fear of these coins isn't that no one is speculating, but that everyone is waiting for someone else to take the final baton.After the US non-farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stock market showed a very divided performance.
August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market had originally only expected 56,000, nearly three times the forecast. Once the data came out, US Treasury bonds immediately reacted, with the 10-year yield surging back to 4.8%, and market expectations for a September rate hike also rose.
Normally, this environment is definitely unfavorable for tech stocks, so last night the S&P fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.29%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.51%. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 3% last night, with the entire storage, semiconductor equipment, and AI hardware sectors strengthening against the trend. What has really been weighing on tech stocks these days are oil prices and US Treasury yields. Oil prices remain above $90, the 10-year Treasury yield has returned to 4.8%, and with such strong non-farm payrolls, the market naturally worries that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates.
Additionally, US markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day, so the next opening is Tuesday. Next week, the real focus will no longer be on non-farm payrolls, but on CPI and PPI. The key will be whether inflation provides the Federal Reserve with a reason to continue raising rates.🚨 Nonfarm Night! 162,000 vs Expected 55,000, Rate Hike Repricing
Beijing Time September 4, 20:30, US August Nonfarm triple market expectations:
📊 New jobs 162,000 (expected about 55,000), strongest since March
📊 Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%; hourly wages +0.3% month-over-month, +3.1% year-over-year
📊 June and July combined revised up by 55,000, "employment cooling" narrative overturned
🔁 Market immediately reprices: September rate hike probability rises from about 50% to 58.4%-60.2% (CME FedWatch, as of September 5); 2-year US Treasury yield +7.6bp, US dollar index +0.3%
💡 Transmission logic: strong employment → Fed focuses on inflation → financial conditions tighten → non-interest assets under pressure
👀 Next up: September 10 PPI, September 11 CPI, September 16 FOMC — CPI is the decisive variable
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 $CRDO US Stock AI Leader】CRDO crashed from $308 to $170, is it a golden opportunity or a bottomless pit?
Brothers, many have been asking about the stock (CRDO) recently. From the high of $308, it dropped all the way back to around $170, nearly a 40% pullback, which has trapped many who bought at the top. Today, I'll analyze it for you,
Outstanding performance, so why did the stock price plummet?
Revenue in the financial report grew over 114% year-over-year, and EPS also exceeded expectations, but this sell-off is essentially buying on expectations and selling on facts. Before the earnings report, the stock price had priced in too much expectation; after the good news was realized, funds took the opportunity to cash out. Coupled with recent hawkish macro interest rate expectations, high Beta tech stocks were the first to be squeezed out.
Is the core fundamental bad?
Not at all! CRDO is the absolute essential leader in high-speed interconnects for data centers (AEC active copper cables, optical chips). As Nvidia and major cloud giants continue to stack computing power, the communication transmission bottleneck between servers becomes even more prominent. Its industry prosperity and performance growth remain strong, and Wall Street institutions still anchor their target price around $280.
Operation advice: Avoid blindly leveraging on the left side: The first phase after a sharp drop usually comes with intense volatility, and blindly opening high-leverage long positions can easily get stopped out by intraday shakeouts.
Currently, focus on the support line around $158 - $160. If it can complete a low-volume consolidation or form a bullish divergence in this area, it will be a very cost-effective opportunity for phased buying For $BTC, this is the most important signal to watch in the past two months.
First, what is this? The red line is STH-MVRV, the short-term holders' unrealized profit multiple; 1 is the cost line, and 1.15 means an average profit of 15%. The blue line is its own 155-day moving average. When the red line is above the blue line, the area below is filled green; when reversed, it is filled red.
So this green area is not about valuation, it’s about momentum. It only answers one question: Is the situation of this batch of new money getting better or worse?
In June, STH-MVRV was 0.84, meaning new entrants were on average losing 16%, with no green area at all. Now the red line has crossed above the blue line, and the green area is the thickest this year.
I acknowledge this signal; directionally, it stands on my side, but two things must be said together.
First, the red line has now surged to around 1.15, and Glassnode’s old experience is that once this number exceeds 1.2 to 1.4, the risk of profit-taking rises significantly. The green is green, but it’s not far from the upper edge of the comfort zone.
Second, from August 18 to 28, the 30-day distribution volume of long-term holders rose from 174,500 to 281,900 coins, while LTH-MVRV increased from 1.31 to 1.64. New money is making profits, old money is selling, and the sellers are targeting this batch of new money.
The green area tells you "the trend is moving this way," not "buying at this price now won’t get you stuck."
The cost of confusion between these two things is usually paid by those who chase in.Waller's statement yesterday gave the market a strong boost.
On September 3rd, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that if inflation continues to cool down, he tends to keep interest rates unchanged in September.
The market immediately repriced, with the expectation of a rate hike in September falling from over 60% to nearly 50%. BTC surged from around $77,000 to $81,000–$82,000, hitting a new high since May. Gold also rose more than 2% that day.
This is actually more worth watching than just "BTC went up again."
Because recently, the market is trading on more than just risk appetite.
It's another logic:
Will the US dollar continue to weaken? Will its real purchasing power be diluted? Is capital searching again for assets that do not rely on a single fiat currency system?
Gold fits this logic.
BTC is increasingly fitting it too.
So this round of the market is quite interesting.
Previously, BTC was more like a tech stock: it rose with good liquidity and was the first to run when risk appeared.
Now it starts to trade the "currency depreciation" story together with gold.
Of course, don't rush to call it digital gold.
The real test will be when the next macro pressure comes: can BTC still stand with gold?
Or will it still be the first to be sold when the market tightens?
$BTC $ETH #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 As soon as Waller spoke yesterday, BTC surged directly.
On September 3rd, Waller stated that if inflation continues to decline, he leans towards no rate hike in September.
The market immediately changed its script.
Originally, more than 60% expected a rate hike, but this quickly dropped to about 50%. BTC surged from around $77,000 to $81,000, even touching $82,000 intraday. Gold also rose accordingly.
Looking at BTC now, it’s quite interesting.
People used to treat it as a risk asset.
When the Nasdaq rose, it followed.
When liquidity tightened, it got hit.
But now the market is starting to apply another logic to BTC:
What if the dollar depreciates?
What if debt keeps increasing?
What if purchasing power declines?
Gold is one of the answers.
BTC is also being included in this answer.
So this rally, on the surface, looks like Waller’s dovish signal.
But looking deeper, the market is trading on whether "money will become less valuable."
But don’t get too excited here.
Because after the stronger-than-expected US employment data was released on September 4th, the market raised rate hike expectations again, and BTC briefly fell back below $80,000.
This is the most realistic aspect of the macro market.
Yesterday you could trade rate cut expectations.
Today you can trade rate hike expectations.
So what’s really worth watching is never just one sentence from Waller.
It’s whether gold and BTC can continue to stand on the same macro logic.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Nonfarm Payroll Night, Why Did Trump "Go Against the Trend" and Call for a Rate Cut?
On September 4th, August's nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations. The CME's rate hike probability jumped to 60%, with bond market dollar rising and gold falling. One and a half hours after the data release, Trump posted on Truth Social: first praising the data as "breaking expectations," then abruptly shifting tone—"Cut rates, or I will stop doing business with all countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S." He directly addressed Fed Chair Powell: "Be a patriot."
Economics 101 teaches us strong employment → inflation → rate hikes, but Trump's logic is: "A strong country means lower interest rates."
As a trader, I see two signals: First, politics openly challenging monetary independence—Powell just emphasized last week that "we should not yield to political pressure," and a week later the president is pressuring, with this timing 11 days before the FOMC suggesting a direct confrontation between the White House and the Fed. Second, the call reveals Trump's anxiety—the stronger the nonfarm data, the stronger the rate hike expectations, the greater the impact on the economy and stock market. He uses trade war threats against the Fed, essentially saying "No matter how good the data is, I want rate cuts."
For traders, the source of short-term volatility has shifted from "the data itself" to the "politics vs central bank" struggle. The rate hike card is in the Fed's hand, but Trump's trade war card could overturn the entire situation at any time. In the next 11 days, any new statement from either side could have a far greater impact than the nonfarm data itself. $BTC $SNDK #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 The mid-year report of Invesco Great Wall Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted ETF Link finally reveals why this fund is trading at a 24% premium and still being snapped up crazily?
Because it doesn't track the ordinary Nasdaq 100!
The Nasdaq 100 mixes in impure "tech stocks" like Amazon, Meta, and Tesla (they are classified under consumer and communication).
But this index only keeps hardcore tech: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Micron — a pure AI computing power hub.
Single stock cap is 15%, and the top five total weight does not exceed 60%, preventing giants from crowding too much.
With no quota left for off-exchange, if you want to buy, you have to compete on-exchange, so the premium is driven sky-high. What you are buying is pure computing power. I wonder if any big players have made money with this fund.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
DYOR.When the non-farm payroll data came out last night, I was completely stunned.
The market had previously expected only 56,000, but the actual release soared directly to 162,000, the highest in three months! Moreover, July's data was revised upward by 44,000, pulled from negative to positive, contradicting expectations for two consecutive months. The job market shows no sign of cooling down.
The market reaction was lightning fast. Gold $XAU instantly dropped $70, silver followed with a $1.5 decline, and the US dollar index surged 34 points.
The worst hit was the crypto market, with $BTC plunging from 81,600 and $ETH falling below 2,450. Several of my friends who were long positions liquidated on the spot, causing a wave of distress.
My biggest concern now is the CPI on September 11. Waller recently said, "CPI decides everything," but the non-farm payrolls exploded first. If CPI also exceeds expectations, a rate hike in September is almost certain.
However, the RSI has already dropped to 12.5, indicating severe short-term overselling, so a technical rebound might occur.
But personally, I think before the CPI release, don't rush to chase any rebound; it might just be a bull trap. The job market is much stronger than we thought.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Trump has started ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again, threatening that if the Fed doesn't cut rates, he will cut off trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S.
In fact, Trump and Powell want completely different things right now. Trump wants growth and cheap money; with lower interest rates, government borrowing is cheaper, corporate financing is cheaper, and the U.S. stock market and economy are more likely to rise. Powell wants to protect the purchasing power of the dollar and the Fed's credibility. The more aggressively Trump demands rate cuts, the less Powell can easily give in, otherwise the market will really start to doubt the Fed's independence.
The most awkward part is that while Trump is pushing for rate cuts, he is also waging a trade war and taking military action against Iran. Tariffs may push up commodity prices, and the war has kept oil prices above $90, which means Trump is verbally urging Powell to cut rates while his own actions are continuously making it harder for Powell to do so.
Therefore, the importance of the CPI on September 11 has been maximized. Bloomberg expects overall CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, and core CPI year-over-year at 2.4%. If core inflation continues to cool significantly, the Fed still has reason to treat high oil prices as a supply shock and wait in September; if CPI again exceeds expectations, combined with strong nonfarm payrolls and high oil prices, a rate hike in September becomes increasingly justified, and the market may even start trading a second rate hike in December directly.In August, the U.S. added 162,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. After the data was released, BTC once fell below $80,000 and is now hovering around $79,600.
The screen clearly showed the same data, yet three types of news quickly appeared on the account.
Bulls say: With such strong employment, the economy is fine, BTC can hold up.
Bears say: With such strong employment and rising interest rate expectations, liquidity needs to tighten.
The trapped person said: Wait a little longer, the market still hasn't understood my logic.
Many people are not interpreting nonfarm payrolls, but asking nonfarm payrolls to testify for their positions. The data is objective, but the explanations are considerate: whatever direction you hold, it happens to support that direction.
The real danger isn't a single misreading, but that every new piece of news can be rewritten as a "no stop-loss needed" reason. When the position is light, we study probability; When the position is heavy, we start studying miracles.
This nonfarm payroll did heat up interest rate discussions, but it was not the final verdict of the September decision. There is still CPI on September 11, and the FOMC meeting is only on September 15-16. The market will first trade sentiment, then expectations, and finally decide what funds will be made after policies are truly implemented.
I only remind myself of three things:
First, a single statistic can only change probabilities, not judge the future.
Second, if new news only makes me want to add to my position but doesn't ask me to recheck the failure conditions, that's not analysis—it's about finding witnesses.
Third, if you miss the first market segment after the data is released, you miss it—there's no need to replace the first place with the second orderWhile everyone is focused on the defense strength of USD/JPY at the 155 level, what I see is the Bank of Japan executing a deeply meaningful “Queen for Pawn” move in the midgame — they have abandoned the bluff at the front line and chosen to violently dismantle the most crowded carry trade camp in the global financial market. This is not a sudden ambush but a well-laid endgame trap set twenty moves earlier.
In chess theory, the most dangerous attacks often do not come from aggressive sacrifices but from the slow advance of the central pawn chain. The Bank of Japan officials’ preference for a 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% in September is precisely this weighty “central pawn.” Service sector inflation is the powder keg, while the weak yen is the sacrificed knight luring the enemy in. If the market is seen as a scale, the drop of USD/JPY from 160.39 to 155 is the forced shutdown of the “weak yen” engine. Speculative funds running naked on low-interest currencies now face a “timeout loss” dilemma, forced to make extremely undignified stop-loss retreats in a very short time.
Immediately following, the short squeeze of 16 to 17 trillion yen warned by JPMorgan after the 155 break smells like a familiar “pawn structure collapse.” This 15-16 trillion yen carry trade is like an overstretched pawn chain. Initially, it created extreme visual pressure, pushing the exchange rate far from its core value center; but once the center is broken by this sudden rate hike expectation, all open lines from the low-interest era are forcibly invaded by the opponent’s rook. At this point, liquidation acts like a series of “forced responses,” not only pushing USD/JPY down to the next undefended pawn formation at 151-152 but also forcing global fund managers in panic to sell profitable risk assets to exchange for local currency liquidity — for Bitcoin and US stock tokens like XEWY, this is tantamount to having their rear supply lines completely cut off.
As the dollar interest rates and US Treasury yields on the board, they are now “pinned” pieces. On one hand, the yen’s appreciation directly lowers the expected US Treasury yields, causing the dollar index to weaken as if losing its two bishops; on the other hand, if the scale of carry trade liquidation creates a siphon effect, the scarcity of dollar cash will severely damage risk asset valuation models. Bitcoin’s liquidity is a piece easily sacrificed in this macro game because its pricing power is not on-chain but lies in the prudence of dollar-based capital. For XEWY, a highly correlated target, every rally by bulls currently faces systemic squeeze pressure brought by the yen’s “general,” essentially licking blood on the knife’s edge.
The endgame of exchange rates never requires heroism; it only counts who exhausts their forces first. The Bank of Japan has chosen to advance this decisive pawn at the most opportune moment, and the dollar’s position, like an unprotected A pawn on the board, will inevitably yield this victory under the pressure of time. Arbitrageurs can only try to find a barely survivable escape in this fierce offensive. #bojhikeoddsrise"Nonfarm Night, 5 Quick Reviews"
Quick Review 1: 162,000 vs 55,000 — This is not an upside surprise, this is a "death sentence"
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000.
What was the expectation? 55,000.
Nearly three times.
July's data was revised from -23,000 to +21,000. June was also revised from 20,000 to 31,000.
The two months combined were revised upward by 55,000.
This is not a "slight beat". This is a "death sentence for rate cut expectations."
Quick Review 2: Gold drops $70 in 1 minute — All hard asset bulls liquidated simultaneously
After the data release, spot gold plunged over $70 in a short time, directly breaking below the $4400/oz level. Silver fell 2.11%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged 34 points to 99.32.
BTC dropped from 81,600, breaking below 80,000, hitting a low of 78,600.
The crypto market saw over $200 million liquidated in 1 hour, with longs overwhelmingly dominant. Total 24-hour liquidations across the network exceeded $750 million.
Gold, silver, Bitcoin — all "hard asset bulls" were collectively liquidated at the same moment.
The $200 million BTC liquidation is just a small chapter in this big story.
Quick Review 3: Rate hike probability jumps from 47.6% to 58% — But don’t think tonight is the final verdict
CME FedWatch shows the probability of holding rates steady in September quickly dropped to 42%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike surged from 47.6% to 58%.
But Bank of America is right: Nonfarm is just the appetizer, CPI is the main course.
Under Chair Powell, the Fed has made it clear — reduce forward guidance and let the market rely entirely on hard data for decisions.
Nonfarm sets the tone for rate hikes; CPI will decide whether hikes actually happen.
Before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, another CPI report will be released. That is the real "big test."
Quick Review 4: Below 80,000 — The "mass grave" of long leverage
BTC surged to 81,000 during the day, then within minutes after the nonfarm data release, it crashed below 80,000.
Below 80,000 lies the corpses of long leverage positions.
Just like June 5’s 61,000 and August 23’s 76,000 — the same script, just a different price.
Every time it’s "better-than-expected macro data → rising rate hike expectations → risk assets crash → long leverage gets cleaned out." The exact same process, the exact same outcome.
Quick Review 5: Before the next data release — reduce leverage below 2x or go flat
In Powell’s Fed era of no "answers," staying alive is more important than making money.
Before nonfarm, BTC rallied from 77K to 81K during the day, then crashed back to 78K right after the report. Those who chased longs during the day or couldn’t exit in time at night lost everything.
Before the next nonfarm and CPI releases — reduce leverage below 2x or go flat and wait.
This market owes no one money. But you owe yourself a position that keeps you alive.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 The foundation pit hasn't even been excavated yet, but the press conference has already preset "topping out in 2027"—put this on the review table, this is a competition of renderings, not construction drawings.
When I saw that 21 traditional financial giants including Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Wells Fargo are preparing to form a new company and plan to establish the entity the year after next and enter cross-border payments and digital asset settlement the year after that, my professional habit kicked in before excitement. The most honest disclosure in this plan is: "Nothing has been established; structure, reserves, and approvals have not been made public." No structure, no reserves, no approvals, yet the completion year is written in the press release—this is equivalent to deciding the tower height on a site without geological surveys. All structural aesthetics under the premise of missing foundation soil parameters are just suspended art installations.
Does the collective entry of traditional financial institutions mean the stablecoin building will be upgraded from a "wildly grown low warehouse" to a "compliant Grade A office building"? I will put on my safety helmet, lay the drawings flat on the scaffolding, and say: the real watershed has never been volume, but foundation selection. USDT and USDC have already formed a city complex connected by countless old streets, while newcomers bring the standard municipal pipelines of bank clearing systems. The pipelines are certainly more elegant, but architecture is not decided by the storefront logo. The moat of the crypto dollar has never been in the exterior decoration, but in those underground diaphragm walls that have been poured and are bearing soil pressure—the channel network, user habits, and 24/7 liquidity all convert into structural stiffness.
Reserves, custody, audits, and redemption stress tests are the raft foundation of this dollar tower. As long as these coefficients lack a signed geological survey report, all other discussions are invalid. The US "GENIUS Act" and the EU "MiCA Regulation" provide two sets of green certifications for the facade, but anyone who has done construction drawing reviews knows: green labels regulate operational energy consumption, not structural failure.
I also glanced at the adjacent foundation pit monitoring data on the bulletin board—$xLITE tower crane showed slight horizontal displacement. Some peers would put this into a hot-selling brochure, but I only record it in the settlement observation log according to regulations. An architect's daily routine is facing instruments: settlement has no emotions, only deviations from the design baseline.
The 21 giants sitting around the long table now look more like a closed-door scheme selection rather than a construction site. The timeline is clearly deduced from board calendars and regulatory schedules, not arranged by concrete curing periods. I've handled hundreds of projects, and there are too many cases without complete geological survey reports; those that eventually become landmarks can be counted on one hand. All groundbreaking ceremonies held before the structure is determined are essentially symbolic acts. Whether the building can stand depends not on how many clouds the glass reflects in the renderings, but on whether the raft foundation truly reaches the bearing layer. And at this moment, the soil layer thickness revealed by drilling is zero, yet someone is already discussing how to charge for the rooftop helipad.
According to the architect's delivery standards, this tower does not yet have coordinates available for measurement and staking. To really top out, first put the soil removal receipt from when the foundation pit bottom was reached on the review table. #tradfistablecoinalliance$BTC's recent rise is not driven by short covering at all,
CVD, spot CVD, and open interest all increased along with the price rise,
indicating that this rally is driven by demand from both sides of the market.
However, buying strength in the spot market far exceeds that in perpetual contracts, which is a good sign.
In a bear market, such demand is really not seen.
$DOGE has recently made a strong comeback with great momentum. From the macro structure and the higher lows here, DOGE seems poised for a large-scale rebound and continuation,
at least targeting a break above the ~$0.60 price area, achieving over 555% gains!
It may already be ready to launch from here. Wash's "Data Dependence" Trap: When the Fed Doesn't Give Answers, the Market Can Only Vote with Liquidations
Have you noticed that every nonfarm payroll in 2026 feels like a "big exam"?
June, July, August—each time replaying the same script: data release → violent fluctuations → liquidations.
On June 5, the U.S. stock market opened lower, triggering $160 million in liquidations.
On August 23, Bitcoin fell below $76,000, instantly vaporizing $91.27 million.
On September 4, nonfarm payroll data was released, and Bitcoin crashed through the $80,000 mark from $82,262 within minutes, with $225 million liquidated across the network in one hour, including $186 million in long position liquidations.
The same script, repeated over and over.
But have you ever wondered—why does the market panic as if seeing the data for the first time every time it is released?
The deep reason is simple: under Wash's leadership, the Fed no longer provides "answers."
On June 17, Wash's debut. The FOMC statement was only about 130 words—compared to over 300 words in April's statement. Many long-used phrases were removed, including the Fed's long-standing "forward guidance."
Wash said at the press conference: "Today's statement is shorter, more concise, and discards some old language. This statement only conveys facts we can confirm to the public."
"Forward guidance" is "not suitable for the current policy environment."
He even refused to submit his own dot plot forecast because "I don't think it helps policy implementation."
In plain language: the Fed no longer tells you in advance what it plans to do.
What is Wash's philosophy?
In his late August Jackson Hole speech, he made it very clear:
"Market participants will always try to predict the Fed's next move. But the Fed should not create a system where investors primarily rely on central bank signals to decide trading directions."
It's not Wash telling the market where rates should go; it's inflation and employment data telling Wash where rates should go.
He even specifically refuses to give the market a "reaction function"—how much inflation triggers a rate hike? How weak must employment be to pause? He doesn't provide that.
His logic is: the real economy is far more complex than simple models. Today's 3% inflation and 3% inflation in another environment do not necessarily mean the same policy.
Wash wants a "data-driven" market.
He got it—only every data release costs billions.
September 4 was a textbook demonstration.
August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs—market expected only 55,000, directly three times the expectation. June and July data were revised upward by a total of 55,000.
Once the data came out, CME's "FedWatch" showed the probability of a September rate hike soaring from 47.6% to 58%.
Then?
Gold dropped over $80 in the short term, breaking below $4,400/oz.
The dollar index rose briefly to 99.32.
Bitcoin crashed through $80,000 from $81,600 within minutes.
$225 million liquidated in one hour.
A "good news"—strong employment, improving economy—actually crashed the market.
Why? Because without forward guidance, without the Fed "pre-warning" in advance, the market can only violently reprice in an instant.
An Invesco analyst said: Wash is gradually removing the "road signs" the market relies on to judge policy direction.
Without road signs, every drive feels like speeding in fog.
This is not market "irrationality," but the Fed actively removing the "guardrails."
BNP Paribas' head of strategy said: "The market will be more prone to policy surprises in the future; the trading side needs to factor in higher rate hike risk premiums, and overall volatility levels will systematically rise."
JPMorgan Asset Management's CIO was more direct: "Reduced transparency offers no positive value; the market will only fall into more speculation and increased uncertainty."
But Wash doesn't care.
He believes dot plots and forward guidance constrain the Fed, causing the central bank to cling to old forecasts and amplify policy mistakes.
He wants "unpredictability" in policy.
Here comes the problem.
Until the Fed gives "guidance" again, every nonfarm payroll and CPI release is a squid game.
September 11 CPI release—this is the last card before the September FOMC meeting.
Nonfarm payrolls have already pushed the rate hike probability above 60%. If CPI beats expectations again, a September hike is basically certain.
If CPI is below expectations? The market will instantly violently reprice, liquidating positions in the opposite direction.
No matter how the data comes out, someone has to pay.
The only thing you can do is not put all your chips on the table.
Because the Fed now is no longer the Fed that tells you "what we're going to do" in advance.
Wash wants a "data-driven" market.
He got it. Only every data release costs billions.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 1. Macro Background: Interest Rate Easing, but Geopolitical Tensions Remain Unrelaxed The core macro variable this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Governor Christopher Waller hinted that if the August inflation data approaches the 2% target, he would support keeping interest rates unchanged. This directly alleviated market anxiety about further rate hikes, boosting risk asset appetite, and Bitcoin accordingly climbed above the $80,000 mark. But don’t celebrate too soon — geopolitical undercurrents are still turbulent. The U.S. military just completed a large-scale escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump again signaled that "the U.S. might control the strait." If the Middle East situation fluctuates, the transmission chain of crude oil surging → inflation expectations heating up → rate hike expectations reigniting could be triggered at any time. Geopolitics is the biggest "black swan switch" in this market. In the past 24 hours, the total market liquidation scale reached $399 million, with long liquidations at $238 million, accounting for nearly 60%. What does this indicate? The longs chasing highs have already been washed out once. --- 2. Market Structure: Clear Capital Divergence Between BTC and ETH BTC is currently oscillating between $79,700 and $81,000. Last week's sharp rise was essentially a short squeeze — a large number of shorts were forcibly closed when breaking through $82,000, forced to buy back and push prices higher. After this "mechanical buying" subsides, the market needs to observe whether there is organic demand to support it. Notably, BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $101 million over the past 4 days, while ETH ETFs had a net outflow of $48.2 million during the same period. Institutional capitalThis looks more like a rates reset than a crypto-specific breakdown.
$BTC at $79.6K is falling with $ETH and $SOL as stronger payroll expectations reduce near-term easing hopes.
The key signal now is BTC vs gold. If BTC shows relative strength, it could confirm that broader macro demand remains intact.
Not financial advice, just analysis.
#DailyOrbit $ETH｜Complete Recap Summary of Yesterday's Nonfarm Payrolls
⚠️ Market recap only, not investment advice, contracts carry high risk
1. Core Nonfarm Data
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market expectation of only 55,000; unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, wages rose 3.1% year-over-year; July data was revised up from negative growth to +21,000, showing employment resilience far beyond market forecasts.
After the data release, the Fed's September rate hike expectations quickly rose, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthening simultaneously, bearish for risk assets.
2. Market Capital Flow Reaction
At the moment of data release, the market collectively plunged: BTC fell below the 80,000 level, ETH directly lost the critical 2,500 support, with a short-term volume surge downward, triggering concentrated stop-losses on high-position longs; gold also plunged over $100, weakening the entire market.
The prior ADP nonfarm data was weak, and the market was originally betting on a dovish scenario, but this major nonfarm data directly reversed macro expectations, a typical case of a sell-off due to expectation deviation.
3. Market Logic Breakdown
1. Strong employment = delayed Fed rate cut expectations, even reopening the possibility of rate hikes, tightening liquidity expectations suppressing the crypto market.
2. The first sharp drop was a liquidity pulse, followed by minor oscillations and recovery, no immediate one-sided crash; the true direction awaits CPI data confirmation.
3. ETH has greater volatility elasticity than BTC, with stronger downside potential, forming a new resistance zone above in the short term. $ETH｜Complete Recap Summary of Yesterday's Nonfarm Payrolls
⚠️ Market recap only, not investment advice, high risk in contracts
1. Core Nonfarm Data
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market expectation of only 55,000; unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, wages rose 3.1% year-over-year; July data was revised up from negative growth to +21,000, showing employment resilience far beyond market expectations.
After the data release, the Fed's September rate hike expectations quickly rose, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthening simultaneously, bearish for risk assets.
2. Market Capital Reaction
At the moment of data release, the market collectively plunged: BTC fell below the 80,000 mark, ETH directly broke the key 2,500 support, with a short-term volume surge downward, triggering concentrated stop-losses on high-position longs; gold also plunged over $100, weakening the entire market.
The prior small ADP nonfarm was weak, and the market was originally betting on a dovish scenario, but this large nonfarm data directly reversed macro expectations, a typical case of a sell-off due to expectation deviation.
3. Market Logic Breakdown
1. Strong employment = delayed Fed rate cut expectations, even reopening the possibility of rate hikes, tightening liquidity expectations suppressing the crypto market.
2. The first sharp drop was a liquidity pulse, followed by slight oscillation recovery, no immediate one-sided crash; the real direction awaits CPI data confirmation.
3. ETH has greater volatility elasticity than BTC, with stronger downside potential, forming a new resistance zone above in the short term. At the point of sentiment divergence, DOGE shows a bottoming signal
When market sentiment diverges, it is often more worth pondering than a one-sided trend. Currently, DOGE's bullish sentiment is only 40%, while bearish sentiment accounts for 60%, whereas BTC remains high and greed has not subsided—this contrast of "the overall market is still hot, but DOGE is already cold" is precisely a typical characteristic of DOGE's phase bottom.
The logic is not complicated. $DOGE holders are mainly retail investors, whose sentiment fluctuates more than $BTC. When retail investors collectively turn bearish, it indicates that the washing out of floating chips is nearing completion: those who want to sell have already sold, leaving mostly low-cost, stable-minded chips. Meanwhile, BTC maintaining greed indicates that the overall market liquidity and risk appetite have not deteriorated; funds are just rotating internally, not exiting. On one side, the overall market sentiment is healthy; on the other, the sentiment of an individual coin has bottomed. The gap between them is the space for recovery.
From past cycles, DOGE has repeatedly formed bottoms after diverging from BTC sentiment. It is highly elastic to sentiment changes; the more fully panic is released, the stronger the subsequent rebound momentum. Additionally, its price action often lags behind BTC. When BTC stabilizes first, funds will seek lower-risk gradients downward, and DOGE often becomes the recipient.
Of course, sentiment indicators measure the position of people's minds, not time. Divergence may last several days or extend to several weeks. The premise for a bottom-fishing signal to be valid is that BTC's sentiment does not weaken accordingly. Once BTC slides from greed into fear, the divergence is no longer an opportunity but the start of an overall correction. This looks more like a rates reset than a crypto-specific break. BTC at $79.6K is down alongside ETH and SOL as the stronger payroll narrative challenges near-term easing hopes. I would treat the next relative move in BTC versus gold as the cleaner signal: resilience there would suggest macro demand remains intact.
Not advice, just analysis.Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in September???
Based on past data, the Federal Reserve tends to cooperate with the government near midterm elections or presidential elections. This is not complicated because it directly affects election outcomes, which politicians absolutely cannot tolerate.
A few days ago, Trump already said he wants Powell to "do the right thing," which means absolutely no rate hikes before the midterm elections. And if the Fed really raises rates in September or October, anyone can guess that Trump will definitely retaliate fiercely.
Although the Federal Reserve is independent from the U.S. government, political factors do influence monetary policy and cannot be ignored, especially now that the Trump administration has shown strong interference in Fed decisions, making political factors even more significant.
No matter how Trump retaliates, it’s definitely not good for the Fed. So theoretically, as long as the Fed governors are not out of their minds, they will accept not raising rates before the midterms. The reasons for turning dovish will depend on individual explanations.
Fed Governor Waller wants to turn dovish, citing cooling inflation as the reason. But anyone can see that current inflation data is still far from 2%, and with the prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict, oil prices are soaring higher and higher. So his reason simply doesn’t hold up.
Therefore, I believe the probability of a rate hike in September is low. $BTC is being pulled between two opposing forces.
Bitcoin ETF just attracted $730.9M — the largest daily inflow since January. But the US August NFP increased by 162K, far exceeding forecasts, raising the expectation of a Fed rate hike in September to nearly 60%. (The Block)
BTC therefore dropped below $80K after surpassing $82K.
Notably: institutions are still buying, but macro factors are working against crypto.
If ETFs continue to attract money, $80K could become a support zone. If the Fed turns more hawkish, BTC could face additional pressure.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETFUS August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market expected only 55,000 — directly three times the expectation. July data was sharply revised from "a decrease of 23,000" to "an increase of 21,000".
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September jumped from 50% to over 60%.
Gold plunged $70 in the short term, and the US Dollar Index DXY rebounded to 99.36.
Okay, the data is strong. But here’s the question — does an increase of 162,000 jobs justify a $200 million liquidation?
If the deviation is limited, such a drastic instantaneous reaction points more to the fragility of the leverage structure rather than a fundamental shift in macro logic.
Nonfarm payrolls are just the needle; the excessive leverage piled up below $80,000 is the balloon.
We have seen this script too many times.
On June 5, after nonfarm payrolls, $160 million was liquidated. On August 23, breaking below 76,000 triggered $91.27 million in liquidations.
The same formula, the same flavor — data release → sharp drop → cascading long liquidations → intensified decline.
Every time someone calls it a "black swan." Every time someone says "didn’t expect this."
But which time wasn’t it the high-leverage longs burying themselves?
When it surged to 81,600, the funding rate was only +0.0088%, showing this rally was not driven by leverage buildup. In other words — this rally itself was healthy.
But the $80,000 integer level was too tempting for the bulls. Too many took heavy positions and high leverage here, betting that "breaking 80,000 means the bull market restarts."
And the result? Once the data came, the needle pricked, and the balloon burst.
So what’s next?
Before the next nonfarm payroll and CPI releases — reduce leverage to below 2x, or even go flat and wait.
Don’t tell me "missing out is worse than liquidation." If you miss out, you can still survive; if liquidated, you don’t even get a chance to recover.
In this "data-driven crash" frequent market, high leverage is slow suicide. Not every time can you withstand a $2,400 instantaneous plunge.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 When Bitcoin starts to rise, all those miners who once pivoted to AI suddenly remember that they're mining companies.
Mining group stocks surged 40-67% in August, while CoreWeave only rose about 21%, Nebius 17%. Miners with more exposure to AI and HPC were practically flat or even declined. Just a 23% BTC increase, and the AI pivot story suddenly becomes far less appealing compared to simply holding coins.
Meanwhile, Strategy bought an additional 4,600 BTC, Strive boosted its holdings to over 23,000 BTC, Bitmine extended its $ETH buying streak to 65 consecutive weeks and now holds nearly 5% of the circulating supply despite unrealized losses exceeding $5 billion.
The most interesting news this week was the quietest one. 21 major financial institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citi are teaming up to develop a dollar stablecoin, slated for launch in the first half of 2027, compliant with both the GENIUS Act and MiCA. This isn't some small experiment—this is TradFi starting to build blockchain payment infrastructure in the most serious way yet.
This crypto season is being driven by institutions more than any cycle before.🐋 Whale Movements｜Some are still continuing to scoop up $HYPE
Just as Trump said he is pushing for Hyperliquid to enter the US market in a "fully compliant and legal" manner.
Right after, this mysterious whale 0x6436 started increasing their position again.
The latest purchase was 343,000 HYPE, about $29.09 million.
I casually checked the on-chain records and found this guy didn’t just suddenly jump in today.
Three months ago, they bought 1.28 million tokens near $70, and in the last 10 days, they continued to add near $82.
And from the on-chain records, in the past two days, they have been repeatedly:
Collecting HYPE → Consolidating → Transferring to a fixed address
Then collecting again → Transferring again
So far, they have accumulated about 3.24 million tokens, worth $252 million. According to Lookonchain monitoring, all these HYPE tokens were eventually staked.
So now it’s quite interesting:
On one side, the US is starting to explore how to legally allow Hyperliquid to enter the market
On the other side, a whale with $250 million level is still hoarding HYPE
One watches policy, the other watches real money.
$HYPE