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Tom Lee shared his market outlook before the end of the year in an interview on CNBC, which is very close to my view. He believes this bear market for $BTC will officially end next month because, for those who follow the four-year cycle, October is the bottoming period, and this group will return to the market in October. More importantly, he believes many institutional investors will enter the market in September—whether they have some insider information is unknown, but September 15 is exactly the Clarity Act vote, and if it surprisingly passes, it will directly change the entire market sentiment. He also thinks it’s still possible for BTC to rise to 150,000 by the end of the year. From my perspective, doubling from 78,000 or 79,000 within four months is relatively less likely.Expectations of interest rate hikes continue to heat up + U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, causing the three major U.S. stock indices to continue their decline, with AI concept storage, neocloud, and optical modules falling the hardest.
Rising oil prices have pushed up inflation concerns, and U.S. Treasury yields have risen accordingly. The market is re-trading "higher rates for longer, and even another rate hike." When the discount rate rises, the entire U.S. stock market must compress valuations, and AI is just the most elastic asset with the largest drop.
The reason is simple.
The bigger the past gains, the higher the valuation, and the more crowded the positions, the faster the deleveraging now. Neocloud also has to bear costs for GPUs, data centers, electricity, and debt financing; storage and optical modules have pre-traded the tight supply expectations of HBM, DRAM, NAND, 1.6T, and OCS, so they are naturally more sensitive to interest rate changes.
But currently, there is no hard evidence of a sudden deterioration in AI demand.
NVIDIA just reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, a 106% year-over-year increase; on the same day, the market also reported that Anthropic signed a $35 billion computing power contract with Lambda. Order and demand news is not bad, yet related stocks continue to fall, indicating that the funds are trading not on "whether there is demand," but on whether these capital expenditures can cover interest, depreciation, electricity, and leasing costs, ultimately turning into cash flow.
So this round looks more like:
Macro kills valuations, AI amplifies the decline.
Only after oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields stabilize, and AI infrastructure still cannot rebound, with further capital expenditure cuts, order delays, and profit expectation declines, will it be necessary to upgrade this to an AI fundamental problem.BTC market remains quite frustrating, like boiling a frog in warm water. In the end, will the frog be cooked, or will it jump out by itself? Let's first look at the following logical analysis:
(1) Strength of Bull and Bear Volume
The 4-hour level bullish volume is still weak and decreasing, with obviously insufficient trading volume. The market is in a low-volume consolidation rather than a high-volume breakout, lacking sustained upward momentum.
Daily trading volume has significantly declined from the peak of 80,000 on August 25. High-level low volume plus price stagnation continue to signal volume-price divergence.
On the bearish side, bear volume is also quite sluggish, lacking sustained aggression. Overall, the market is in a "both bulls and bears weak" stalemate.
(2) Volume, Price, and Structure
BTC is forming a box range between 77,000 and 79,500, with highs and lows gradually converging. The price was rejected twice at 77,000.
The 79,000-79,500 range is a key resistance zone on the 4H chart, where price rebounds are clearly blocked. Above 78,500, rebound momentum weakens, and during the high-level sideways movement, lows show tentative downward shifts, with direction unclear.
The daily chart is still in a pullback structure after the high of 81,500. The 72,000-74,400 range is a key daily support zone; holding it maintains the mid-term bullish structure, while breaking it would significantly worsen the post-breakout structure.
(3) On-Chain Data
ETF net inflow resumed on Monday with $217 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $206 million, reversing Friday's $202 million outflow. ETF fund direction remains positive, but weekly inflows have clearly decreased compared to the previous week, indicating weakening marginal buying.
Glassnode data shows spot CVD turned negative (from +280 million to -67.2 million), indicating selling pressure in the spot market is starting to overwhelm buying. Spot trading volume dropped 29.3%, with participation clearly reduced. Futures open interest rose 2.4% to $36.7 billion, funding rates dropped 21.9%, leveraged longs are retreating, but open contracts remain above the high statistical range.
Whales continue accumulating, with the 100-1,000 BTC holding group increasing holdings by 73,300 BTC over 60 days, a new high since April 21.
Core on-chain conflict: ETFs and whales are buying, but spot market selling pressure is accumulating, leveraged longs are retreating, and these two forces are hedging each other.
(4) Macro Fundamentals
Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the biggest macro variable this week. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, with May-June revised down by 103,000, showing employment momentum weaker than previously estimated. August nonfarm is expected to add about 55,000-65,000 jobs, with unemployment rate around 4.1%.
After Wash's speech, the probability of a September rate hike rose to 57.5%. If nonfarm exceeds expectations, it may further raise rate hike expectations; if data is weak, the probability may fall back. The 2-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.29%, the dollar rebounded near 99.7, and macro pressure remains.
(5) 🐉 Little Dragon's Core Judgment
Decreasing bull and bear volume and shrinking daily volume, narrowing price volatility and converging structure, combined with the upcoming Friday nonfarm data catalyst, increase the probability of a BTC trend change this week!
If nonfarm is below expectations, BTC may rebound to test 80,000, but the rebound will likely fail to break 82K, and after the rebound, it will continue to decline and correct; if above expectations, the 77,000 support will be tested, and breaking it will target 75,000-76,000 or even 73,500.
73,500 remains the most probable correction target but requires a negative nonfarm trigger.
Finally, no matter how much ETF institutions and long-term holders push, BTC price is very likely to decline and correct subsequently.
🐮 The bull market launch is not achieved overnight; it requires a correction to confirm the bottom price level. The US-Iran conflict has pushed crude oil aggressively above $90!
WTI has climbed back above $90.
Both major oil prices surged nearly 5% in a single day!
The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz has heated up again.
The thorn of energy inflation has stabbed back!
According to reports, Iran announced missile and drone retaliatory attacks on US bases, escalating the US-Iran military conflict further. WTI once rose to $90.57, up 4.95%; Brent rose to $95.14, up 4.92%, with crude oil's cumulative gain this year exceeding 55%.
The market's biggest fear now is that the conflict will continue to affect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Once supply risks rise, oil prices, inflation expectations, and US Treasury yields tend to push upward together. For BTC and tech stocks, this is the most direct macroeconomic headwind. Next, watch if oil prices can continue to accelerate above $90.
If oil prices keep surging aggressively, global risk assets will have to undergo a new stress test.
But as long as geopolitical risks cool down and crude oil quickly retreats, the high Beta recovery elasticity will come very fast! $ETH August's data is quite contradictory.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, below the expected 55.2 and also lower than last month's 55.6. New orders and employment growth are both slowing. But 54.6 is still the second highest reading since 2022, and manufacturing has expanded for eight consecutive months — so if you say it's cooling, it's still expanding; if you say it's heating up, the growth rate is indeed slowing.
JOLTS is similarly contradictory. Job openings in July were 7.27 million, a slight rebound from June's revised 7.18 million but below the expected 7.3 million. The job market is in a "low hiring, low firing" pattern — not collapsing, but not very hot either.
Neither data set gives a clear direction, but the market has already acted. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged above 66%. After the Jackson Hole speech, this number doubled from just over 30%.
The real suspense now is Friday (September 4th) August's nonfarm payrolls. The market expects an increase of about 58,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. July's nonfarm payrolls actually turned negative — down by 23,000. Whether August can climb out of the hole will determine if a September rate hike is a done deal or still up for discussion.
As for Bitcoin $BTC, the 77,000-78,000 range is now waiting for the nonfarm data. It's unlikely there will be big moves before the data comes out, but with a 66% chance of a rate hike, that pressure is very real. We'll see the verdict Friday night. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #贝森特 plans to ease bank credit, high interest rate pressure to be resolved
The leader has something to say
贝森特 wants to relax credit for small and medium banks, relying on growth to digest debt. Washington aims to push inflation down to 2%, with high interest rates as the tool. These two forces are at odds.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.75%, near a 20-month high. Oil prices are above 90, and Washington's anti-inflation stance remains unchanged. The Treasury is also expanding long-term bond repurchases but cannot suppress yields.
Whether credit easing can translate into effective investment will determine the outcome. Investment in equipment and technology expands supply. Investment in consumption and real estate pushes up prices, and the high interest rate cycle will only be longer.
The market is currently siding with the Federal Reserve. The bond market is using prices to tell everyone that inflation won't come down, and rates won't go back.
Holding over 78,100 long contracts on Bitcoin, added at 76,900 yesterday, and already exited near the average price. Continuing to hold short ZEC positions; the two positions do not conflict in direction.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL 1. The US-Iran conflict is indeed escalating
On August 31, an oil tanker was hit by three projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. On September 1, the US military airstruck Iran's Larak Island, and Iran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at the US base in Jordan. Subsequently, Trump approved the new "tanker for tanker" policy, with the US military attacking Iranian government oil tankers for the first time, striking about 100 targets. The US-Iran conflict has lasted for seven months, and oil prices have been driven up.
2. ETH is indeed falling
As of early September 2, ETH fell below $2,400 (a 24-hour drop of about 2.92%). Bitcoin also briefly dropped below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762.
3. Whales are indeed transferring ETH to exchanges
A mysterious whale has deposited 70,739 ETH (worth about $174 million) to exchanges over the past two days, with 97,115 ETH (about $237 million) still not transferred. Large-scale transfers to exchanges usually indicate potential selling pressure.
1. Market reactions are mixed—risk assets are falling, and safe-haven assets are also falling
After this escalation, Bitcoin dropped, but gold also fell by 2.6%. Why? Because the surge in oil prices (Brent crude broke $94) pushed up inflation expectations, and the market began to worry that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September soared to 57%. Rate hike expectations mean rising risk-free rates, which is negative for all non-cash-flow-generating assets (whether Bitcoin, gold, or ETH). This is not "ETH being sold off," but the entire risk asset class is under pressure. UNI rose from a June low of $2.30 to around $5.6, rising 20% to 35% in seven days, with a monthly increase of 27% to 38%, more than doubling its price. The core logic behind this rally was that after Fee Switch's launch, protocol revenue began buying back and burning tokens. On August 21, a record 150,000 tokens were burned in a single day. Additionally, Uniswap became the main AMM on Robinhood Chain, with daily trading volume reaching $130 million. UNI's role shifted from governance tokens to "dividend burn stocks" backed by real cash flow. 📈 But the market often plants turning points at its most active moments. Currently, the daily RSI has risen to a deeply overbought range of 67 to 77, with prices running along the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, MACD momentum bars flattening, and the upward momentum clearly slowing. After a strong bullish candle on August 30, trading volume gradually shrank. Although prices have topped all moving averages, forming golden crosses between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the medium-term structure is bullish, but the cost-effectiveness of short-term chasing rallies is declining. History repeatedly proves that high-level FOMO is often the lowest win rate for trades. A bigger variable comes during the September macro data week. The nonfarm payrolls on September 4, PPI on the 10th, and CPI on the 11th were released one after another. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the 15th to 16th, with the current interest rate range between 3.5% and 3.75%. The crypto fear and greed index has reached 69, indicating a somewhat aggressive market sentiment; BTC is fluctuating between 77k and 81k. Once macro data turns hawkish and the dollar strengthens, high-valuation altcoins will be the first to bear selling pressure. If BTCThe market situation of the CORE token has been unusually quiet recently. The price hovers around $0.021 with little movement, and trading volume remains flat. The market seems tired of stories and is quietly waiting for results. This silence is actually capital voting with its feet: concepts no longer hold value, execution is what’s worth waiting for.
From the known information, the project team is indeed taking action. Three core business lines have launched, with fee income going into the treasury for buybacks; meanwhile, 21,000 BTC are staked, and the total locked volume has increased by 25% month-over-month. These data represent solid progress and explain why the price hasn’t dropped significantly—there are supporters holding the bottom and others waiting for validation.
But the problems are also clear. Buybacks have not yet achieved scale and have limited impact on the market; shallow liquidity means even a slightly large sell order could trigger noticeable price swings. The current sideways movement looks more like a brief handshake between bulls and bears within a narrow range rather than a confirmed direction.
The real test lies in the execution pace going forward: whether buybacks can continue to expand, whether staking growth can convert into real buying pressure, and whether market depth can gradually improve. If these variables improve, the current price level might just be the starting point; if execution slows, vulnerabilities will be exposed. Staying observant is safer than rushing to conclusions.
Risk warning: Token liquidity is limited, and price volatility is high. Please assess your own risk tolerance rationally. $COREUNI is surging from above 5U toward 6U, not because suddenly there are more positives, but because the "on-paper mechanism" is finally generating real cash.
By the end of 2025, Uniswap activates the fee switch through the UNIfication proposal: part of the trading fees go into TokenJar, and external withdrawals require burning an equivalent amount of UNI via Firepit. Early on, burns were slow and the market treated it as a concept. The turning point came in July 2026 with the launch of Robinhood Chain—Uniswap v2/v3/v4 fully deployed as the main AMM, with stock tokens + RWA daily trading volume hitting $130 million by the end of August, nearly a 10x monthly increase. Robinhood Chain now accounts for nearly 60% of Uniswap protocol fees.
With volume up, the accounts finally match: multiple days in August saw over 100,000 UNI burned daily, with an average daily burn value exceeding $400,000, totaling about 110 million UNI burned (~$630 million). More trading → more fees → more burning → circulating supply deflation, the flywheel is truly spinning now. Coupled with a resurgence of established DeFi and technical breakthroughs, capital is flowing in accordingly.
⚠️ However, the burn rate heavily depends on Robinhood Chain's activity. The annualized deflation of about 4% was judged by Standard Chartered as "hard to sustain," so it is not a risk-free clear bet.
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动 $BTC is looking a bit grim, opening at 77,508 USD, down 1.35% in 24 hours. The key 77,000 level was lost overnight, with renewed conflict as the direct trigger. Crude oil was pulled up, US stocks and crypto sectors fell together, USD rebounded, US bond yields hit new highs, costs for off-exchange money are rising again. Sentiment, however, remains in the greed zone, Fear & Greed Index stuck at 63, price falls but sentiment doesn't, such a wide scissors gap usually means it's not a one-sided moveThe 10-year government bond yields for both the Japanese yen and the US dollar have recently been surging,
The only certainty is that the increase in risk-free yields will drain a large amount of funds from the stock market, so the stock market won't perform well in these two months.
The Fed's further rate hikes seem like it's trying to kill its own people,
The rise in 10-year bond yields also logically hits non-interest-bearing assets. Previously, the US Treasury's buyback of 10-year/20-year/30-year bonds was part of the US debt collapse narrative.
So if US bonds don't collapse, rising government bond yields are bearish for non-interest-bearing assets like gold and btc,
If US bonds collapse, even with rising bond yields, it would be bullish for gold and btc.
Both scenarios make sense, but the US debt collapse narrative is mostly emotional speculation. Now with btc and gold falling, it’s probably funds calming down; it’s still bearish for btc and gold, these non-interest-bearing assets, since government bonds offer high yields for easy returns.
The only certainty is bearish for the stock market, liquidity is locked and drained.
$ANTHROPIC going public can drain another batch of liquidity, so the stock market definitely won’t get better, it’s hellishly difficult, missing the storage market from the first half of the year when there were daily surges. $BTC $SNDK Trust Wallet announced that it will stop built-in support for 25 networks on September 15. The affected assets will not disappear from the chain, but the original network entries in the wallet will disappear, and users may need to manually add RPCs to continue viewing and operating them. This situation illustrates that wallet support for a chain does not mean the wallet "owns" the assets on that chain. Wallets are usually just a combination of key managers, RPC clients, and transaction signing interfaces. Balances are recorded on blockchain nodes. Wallets read balances and transaction history through RPC requests and then sign transactions with local keys. When a wallet stops displaying a network, it changes the access path, not the on-chain state. The real trouble lies in RPC configuration. If any of the network name, Chain ID, native token symbol, or RPC address is entered incorrectly, the wallet may connect to the wrong network or display incorrect balances and transaction information. When manually adding a network, parameters should not be copied directly from group chats; they should be verified from official project documentation or trusted chain registration information. For staking, delegation, and contract assets, it is also necessary to confirm that the new wallet supports the corresponding transaction types before migration. Simply importing recovery phrases and seeing the address appear does not mean all functions will work properly. After recovery, further checks on assets, staking, delegation, and transaction records are needed. A wallet is more like an operational interface to access the blockchain, not the asset itself. To evaluate a wallet's long-term usability, besides looking at how many chains it supports, you also need to see whether it allows users to securely export keys #BessentCapitalRelief doesn't automatically mean cheaper money. Bessent wants smaller banks lending more to businesses, which could boost equipment, factories and tech investment.
But if easier credit lifts demand faster than supply, inflation stays sticky and today's 4.75% 10-year yield could remain painful.
That's the paradox: more credit may strengthen growth while delaying lower rates. The real test isn't how much banks lend. It's whether those loans expand productive capacity faster Conclusion first: The correction is not over yet. This current wave of decline is the result of multiple negative factors resonating together, and there is still room for short-term downside. But after the drop is fully absorbed, the real main upward wave will start in mid to late September, with targets looking to break through $80,000 and even higher.
A correction is not a reason for panic; it is a necessary path to accumulate energy for the next main upward wave. The deeper the drop, the higher the rebound—provided you can endure this toughest bottoming period.
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1. Market Status: A Nightfall Back to the Starting Point
Due to the escalation of military conflict between the US and Iran, Bitcoin plunged straight down from the intraday high of $79,166 on September 2, breaking below the $77,000 mark, hitting a low of $76,762, with a 24-hour drop of about 2.4%. Ethereum simultaneously lost the $2,400 level.
This is not a simple technical correction. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $315 million, with long liquidations at $251 million and shorts only $64.81 million. Bitcoin longs alone were forcibly liquidated for $84.79 million. In other words, the market is selectively clearing leveraged long positions.
Bitcoin prices in South Korea have dropped to 106 million KRW (approximately $77,000).
2. Why Will It Still Drop? Triple Pressure Has Not Cleared
First: Geopolitical pressure continues. After mutual military strikes between the US and Iran, Trump publicly stated he would "hit Iran harder," raising the risk of further escalation in the Middle East. Geopolitical uncertainty suppresses risk appetite, and funds will not massively return in the short term.
Second: Interest rate hike expectations still loom. After Fed Chair Powell delivered a hawkish signal at the Jackson Hole meeting, CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged to 66.4%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.73%. High interest rate expectations mean the valuation anchor for risk assets remains tight. On Polymarket, the rate hike probability also stays near 55.5%.
Third: On-chain supply pressure is accumulating. Binance's Bitcoin reserves have climbed to the highest level in six months. The average outflow from miners to exchanges surged 564% week-over-week—miner selling is the most direct signal of supply pressure. Net inflows from miners after the halving have reached a near one-year high. These chips need time to be absorbed.
3. Technical Analysis: There Is Still Room Below
Bitcoin has broken below the psychological $77,500 level, with short-term support around the $76,000–$76,900 range. If this level fails, the next important technical support is in the $73,000–$74,000 range.
This is not alarmist—some technical analysts even see the monthly head and shoulders pattern target as low as $29,000 (which is an extreme bearish scenario). A more realistic judgment is that this correction needs sufficient turnover in the $73,000–$76,000 range to complete the bottom formation.
4. Why Is the Main Upward Wave Coming After the Drop?
First, the September 15 FOMC meeting is the core turning point. Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee clearly pointed out that if the Fed holds rates steady in September, the stock and crypto markets will see a "very strong" rebound. The market has already priced in a significant rate hike expectation; if no hike occurs, it will be a classic "expectation gap" trigger.
Second, multiple catalysts are intensively stacking. The CLARITY Act vote is expected in mid-September; Korean investors are withdrawing from AI stocks and re-entering crypto assets; Tom Lee believes the four-year crypto cycle will bottom in the coming weeks. He judges that Bitcoin's recent rise is only the "first phase," and institutional allocation will significantly strengthen in Q4, with ETH and BTC being the assets with the strongest FOMO effect before year-end.
Third, the market is healthier after leverage clearing. The $315 million liquidation has cleaned out high-leverage longs, resulting in a more dispersed chip structure. Once marginal easing signals appear in the macro environment, short covering combined with new capital inflows often leads to a very strong rebound.
5. Rhythm Forecast
· Short term (this week): Continue to oscillate and probe the bottom in the $73,000–$77,000 range, with geopolitical risks and rate hike expectations suppressing rebound space
· Medium term (mid to late September): The FOMC meeting is a turning window; if no rate hike occurs, Bitcoin is expected to retake $80,000
· Target levels: After effectively breaking through $80,000, the next targets are $85,000 and then $90,000
$ETH $BTC $SOL "The Truth Behind Bitcoin's 77,000 Crash: It's Not War, It's Leverage Squeeze"
Brothers, have you been sleeping well these past couple of days?
Bitcoin plunged from a high of $81,500 straight down to $77,000, with a low wick at $76,762. Over $400 million in long leverage positions were wiped out. The entire network is wailing.
The news says — "US-Iran war breaks out, Bitcoin crashes." If it were that simple, you'd be seriously underestimating this market.
1. The fuse is real, but the bomb was planted long ago
On September 1, the US military airstruck Revolutionary Guard targets near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on US bases in Jordan. Brent crude surged to $94 a barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield shot up to 4.75%.
On the surface, geopolitical war scared off safe-haven funds. Bitcoin, as a "risk asset," was sold off — the logic seems sound. But this is not the whole truth.
Before the weekend conflict broke out, Federal Reserve Chair Wash had already dropped a bomb at Jackson Hole — if inflation doesn't return to 2%, further rate hikes are possible. The market instantly pushed the September rate hike probability from 35% to over 60%.
A contract trader told me: "When oil prices rise, inflation expectations go up, and the chance of rate hikes increases. Rate hikes = stronger dollar = risk assets get drained. This is a damn death loop."
$ETH $BTC $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 THE MARKET IS CORRECTING — NOT COLLAPSING
$BTC has pulled back toward $77K after August’s rally, while $ETH trades near $2.45K. Rising yields, oil prices and higher September Fed hike odds are pressuring risk assets.
But the broader trend hasn’t broken. Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $3B in August before the recent outflow streak.
This could be a reset, not a reversal. If capital returns, $BTC may stabilize first, $ETH could follow, and altcoins may become the next rotation. ETF MONEY IS STILL FLOWING — SO WHY ARE $BTC AND $ETH CORRECTING?
ETF demand remains constructive, but short-term pressure is building. $BTC is around $77.8K and $ETH near $2.45K.
Profit-taking, rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, inflation fears, and stronger Fed hike expectations are weighing on risk assets.
The key: ETF flows signal structural demand, while macro, liquidity and leverage drive short-term volatility. A correction doesn’t necessarily mean capital is leaving crypto. Intraday: From a macro perspective, why is the crypto market under pressure today along with risk assets?
The crypto market's decline today is not necessarily just a problem within the crypto space itself.
Many people see $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB all falling simultaneously and their first reaction is "the market is weakening."
But if you broaden your view, you'll find that the real variable affecting risk assets today may come from the macro market.
Currently, the market has raised expectations for a Fed rate hike in September again, while the US dollar is strengthening and US Treasury yields are rising, putting overall pressure on risk assets.
In this environment, although BTC is often called "digital gold," its short-term trading logic is still highly influenced by global liquidity.
ETH's issues are even more apparent.
ETH is not only a crypto asset but also a crucial infrastructure for the entire on-chain economy. When funding costs rise and risk appetite declines, ETH's valuation faces a double impact.
BNB can serve as another observation window.
If after macro pressure emerges, BTC only experiences a slight pullback while BNB remains relatively stable, it indicates that funds are still willing to stay in top-tier crypto assets.
So today, rather than asking "Is this a bear market?" it's better to ask:
Is global liquidity tightening, or is this just a short-term repricing?
These two answers have completely different implications for the market over the next month.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC is looking a bit grim, opening at 77,508 USD, down 1.35% in 24 hours.
The key 77,000 level was lost overnight,
with renewed conflict as the direct trigger.
Crude oil was pulled up, US stocks and crypto sectors fell together,
USD rebounded, US bond yields hit new highs,
costs for off-exchange money are rising again.
Sentiment, however, remains in the greed zone,
Fear & Greed Index stuck at 63, price falls but sentiment doesn't,
such a wide scissors gap usually means it's not a one-sided move.
Next step is to watch if 77,000 can hold,
if it holds, there's room for a rebound,
if lost, it will return to oscillate around 76,000. US-Iran conflict reignites, shaking the crypto market—are you ready?
A gunshot in the Strait of Hormuz instantly rewrites the global capital market script. On September 2, the US-Iran military conflict escalated sharply; Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762; Ethereum simultaneously dropped below $2,400. Within just one hour, over $115 million in long crypto positions were forcibly liquidated.
This is not the textbook "safe-haven rally." The real transmission chain is: gunfire → oil price surge → rising inflation expectations → soaring probability of rate hikes → pressure on interest-free assets. Brent crude surged 4.6% to $94.65 in response, and market bets on a Fed rate hike in September soared above 57%. As an interest-free asset, Bitcoin is the first to bear the brunt of rate hike expectations.
The war has lasted six months, and the market has long been desensitized to the news of "fighting again." What truly gets priced in is whether the conflict can keep oil prices soaring, forcing the Fed not to cut rates or even to raise them. In a rate hike cycle, war is a friend to oil but an enemy to interest-free assets.
Geopolitical fractures are rewriting the pricing logic of the crypto market. Volatility is opportunity—will you watch from the sidelines or position yourself?Broadcom and Dell take over earnings reports, AI trading finally moves from "impressive orders" to "profitability looks ugly or not"
Dell's AI server orders are strong, and Broadcom also has to address growth issues with custom chips and VMware AI. But the market is much more picky than in the first half of the year; just saying demand is strong is no longer enough. It wants to see gross margin, backlog, customer concentration, and whether these orders will ultimately bring in real money.
I think the most dangerous illusion in AI infrastructure is equating revenue growth automatically with shareholder returns.
Selling more servers does not mean good profits; getting chips into major customer supply chains does not mean pricing power is in your hands. AI is still expanding, but the secondary market has already started asking that disappointing question: who will ultimately foot the bill for this meal?
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 How does AI pay on behalf of people?
When AI evolves from a chat tool to an agent that can book your flights and buy computing power, traditional payment methods get stuck. AI lacks identity authentication, and stablecoins could become the new favorite for AI payments.
Currently, there are four major camps exploring AI payments globally:
Stripe as an infrastructure platform, stablecoin players like Circle and Coinbase, traditional card organizations like Visa and Mastercard, and AI platform companies like Google and OpenAI.
The competition among these four types of players is a battle between old and new clearing networks for the bookkeeping rights in the future machine world.
Traditional banking networks are designed for human identity KYC and credit card authentication. Facing micro, high-frequency, 7×24-hour automated API calls between machines, compliance and costs become extremely challenging. Stablecoins, which Circle and Coinbase are betting on, are naturally pure code settlements, enabling second-level clearing between machines.
The future direction will definitely not be monopolized by any single party but will be a combination of decentralized underlying layers plus traditional compliance packaging. Google and OpenAI control the AI entry points, Stripe and card organizations hold vast compliance and risk control systems, while cryptocurrencies provide efficient underlying clearing.
The likely endgame is that humans allocate an encrypted budget pool for AI, with AI platforms initiating commands on the front end, Stripe-like entities performing compliance filtering on the back end, and at the lowest level, machines settle microtransactions directly with stablecoins. Two networks run in parallel: machines manage machines, humans manage risk control The market is accustomed to labeling Solana as "highly centralized" while worshipping BTC and ETH as "decentralized deities." But the reality is strikingly clear. BTC/ETH: The excessive concentration of computing power and staking rights means that whether it's Foundry+AntPool (Bitcoin mining pools) or Lido+Coinbase (Ethereum staking), just 3 entities colluding or subject to a single regulatory directive can reach the control threshold. Solana: Due to its unique infrastructure and validator mechanism, truly reaching the control critical point requires 19 entities. In terms of resistance to collusion at the consensus layer, Solana actually surpasses the former two by several orders of magnitude. ETH LST (liquid staking) premium and risk control: Although Ethereum staking yields are stable, the concentration of leading protocols like Lido (stETH) remains the biggest concern for institutional capital entry. In OKX options and futures markets, the tail risk hedging demand for ETH is significantly higher than for SOL, reflecting the market's implicit premium for "3-entity control + regulatory scrutiny." Whenever mainstream cloud providers like AWS experience service fluctuations or outage rumors, the volatility of ETH/SOL trading pairs spikes sharply. Solana's characteristic of having 19 entities distributed across independent data centers demonstrates strong trading resilience against "physical-level black swan" events like cloud service outages. BTC: 63% of nodes run on the Tor network BTC and gold are fluctuating together, but don't rush to package it as a "digital gold victory"
Gold buying is mostly slow money, central banks, ETFs, allocation accounts, which can wait after buying. BTC also has long-term funds, but short-term leverage and options funds are too active, and once volatility amplifies, these people are often the first to run
So I don't like simply saying gold is strong, so BTC should be strong too. Both now share common anxieties: fiscal, inflation, monetary credit, but the nature of the funds is completely different
If this round of correlation comes from "devaluation trades," BTC will be more like a highly elastic expression; if it comes from panic, BTC may be sold off first as a risk asset. They seem to be on the same path, but when pressure really hits, you know who the true companions are
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 This week's employment data is like a cold light, shining on whether the Fed is really tough or not
JOLTS, ADP, and non-farm payrolls are all clustered together, making it hard for the market to keep trading based on just one phrase: "inflation risk." If employment clearly cools down, the September rate hike expectations will be pulled back; if employment holds up, risk assets will have to accept a more expensive money environment again
BTC feels the worst at times like this. It’s not afraid of bad news itself, but fears the macro narrative changing every day—today it’s inflation, tomorrow it’s employment, with leveraged funds caught in the middle being tossed around
Right now, I want to see if the data points will conflict with each other. Because what really torments the market is often not a wrong direction, but that every direction can find a reason
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC fell below $78K again, $ETH fell back to around $2,450, and $SOL retested the $102 level. Looking at recent highs: 🟠 $BTC: about $82.3K 🔵 $ETH: about $2.58K 🟣 $SOL: about $112 This means that the rapid rally in August is likely entering a pullback phase. More notably, the macro environment is becoming more unfavorable. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have pushed oil prices higher, while US Treasury yields have risen, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have clearly increased. Risk assets have thus come under pressure, and BTC and ETH are also struggling to stay unaffected. ETF divergence is also evident: BTC ETFs ended a nine-day streak of inflows, while emerging crypto ETFs like Solana still attract some capital, indicating institutional funds are not fully exiting but are rereallocating across different assets. 📉 My key observation range: If BTC falls below $75K, the next step may test $70K–$68K. If this area still fails to form effective support, then a deeper pullback target could be $64K–$62K. But this does not mean $62K is necessarily the bottom of this cycle. The most important thing now is not to guess the lowest point, but to observe: whether price declines + ETF capital flows + macro liquidity + US Treasury yields weaken simultaneously. In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has once again been taken over by macro variables. BTC, ETH, and SOL have all fallen in parallel, but stablecoins have not seen significant outflows; demand for ETH staking remains strong, and Solana's short-term on-chain activity has even recovered somewhat. Meanwhile, UNI has surged against the trend, and preliminary data for SOL ETFs still maintains net inflows. So what deserves more attention today is not "the market has fallen again," but rather: macro pressure is suppressing overall risk appetite, but funds are not fully withdrawing; instead, they are being redistributed among a few assets and narratives. 📉 Mainstream coins are under pressure again, but have not yet entered panic. As of September 2, 09:32 HKT: BTC: $77,106 | 24h -1.65%
ETH：$2,408.02｜-2.11%
SOL: $99.57 | -3.24% CoinGecko Under de-weighting, the total crypto market cap is about $2.693 trillion, down 1.53% in 24h, with BTC market share around 57.53%. The Fear and Greed Index fell from yesterday's 69 to 63 | Greed. This data reflects a typical risk cooling structure: BTC fell the least, followed by ETH, and high-beta assets like SOL showed more pronounced corrections. However, the sentiment index remains in the greed range, indicating the market is far from entering panic selling. The latest verifiable snapshot of forced liquidation is about $309 million, with more obvious deleveraging from long positions. However, this data is not the real-time cutoff at 09:33 HKTTHE MARKET IS CORRECTING — NOT COLLAPSING
$BTC has pulled back toward $77K after August’s rally, while $ETH trades near $2.45K. Rising yields, oil prices and higher September Fed hike odds are pressuring risk assets.
But the broader trend hasn’t broken. Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $3B in August before the recent outflow streak.
This could be a reset, not a reversal. If capital returns, $BTC may stabilize first, $ETH could follow, and altcoins may become the next rotation. On September 1st, Apple celebrated a truly memorable day: Tim Cook's 15-year tenure as CEO officially came to an end, with John Ternus, head of hardware business, taking over on the same day. In this era of AI fever, the core challenge Ternus faces after taking office is unsurprising—how to lead this hardware-driven consumer electronics giant to reestablish its competitive edge in the AI era. 1. The lukewarm Apple was suddenly "snatched up" by OpenAI In this wave of AI, Apple's market has been steady—not lagging behind, but far from being the main player. However, the latest news may have reopened for Apple to enter the AI table: OpenAI has purchased tens of thousands of screenless, keyboardless Mac mini and Mac Studio units for reinforcement learning training and the development of AI agents for "computer operation"; Anthropic is also renting Mac computing power on a large scale through AWS. Why are AI companies eyeing Macs so fast? The answer lies in Apple's chip architecture. Apple's chips use a unified memory architecture, allowing them to directly load tens or even hundreds of billions of parameters of quantitative models—without having to transfer data back and forth between memory and memory like NVIDIA GPUs do. For those running large models, the cost is not just time, but real financial costs. 2. The financial report has already begun: Mac has become Apple's fastest-growing hardware The influx of enterprise-level demand is directly reflected in the financial statements. Mac's latest quarterBTC fell below 77,000, the overall market plunged into widespread panic selling, and the vast majority of coins were sold off along with the market. However, $UNI (Uniswap) showed a completely independent trend, rising sharply by 10.37%, with its price breaking through $5.9, standing out prominently amid the downtrend. Many people's first reaction might be to think this is just short-term speculative pumping by traders, but UNI's strength in this round stems from structural changes at the business level, not merely emotion-driven. The core driving force behind this rally comes from Robinhood Chain, where on-chain tokenized stock RWA trading has exploded, making Uniswap the main DEX platform on this chain. Single-day tokenized stock trading reached $130 million, with trading volume soaring nearly 10 times in just one month. A large influx of tokenized stock trading has poured into Uniswap, directly bringing considerable fee revenue to the protocol. After the Uniswap v4 fee switch officially turned on on July 27, Robinhood Chain quickly became the core source of Uniswap's fee income. Real business revenue continues to grow, and the market has begun to revalue UNI. During the market panic and decline phase, capital does not only have the option to flee entirely. Some funds have withdrawn from speculative assets and shifted to DeFi leaders with real cash flow. UNI's counter-trend rally is the result of capital rotation in a panic environment. However, this independent trend cannot completely detach from the overall market environment. If market panic further spreads, UNI will also be dragged down by the broader market. The US and Iran are clashing again, and this time what the US stock market really fears is the oil price.
The US has just launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran, targeting air defenses, radar, maritime facilities, and mine-laying capabilities; Iran then retaliated against US military targets in Jordan, Bahrain, and other locations. What's more troublesome is that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, and before the conflict, about 20% of the world's oil supply passed through here.
The market has already started to react: Brent crude $BZ rose 4.6% in one day to $94.65, WTI rose 5.2% to $90.22, and today it continues to climb.
Why does this hurt tech stocks? Oil price rises → inflation pressure returns → the Fed finds it harder to ease → US Treasury yields rise → high-valuation tech stocks get hit first. Yesterday, $SPX fell 0.71%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.03%, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose.
More importantly for investors is whether the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal and whether oil prices will break $100. If the conflict escalates, the higher the oil price, the harder it will be for AI tech stocks.
#美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 $BTC BTC and gold are moving along the same path — a currency devaluation trade, but both are simultaneously held back by interest rate hike expectations.
The 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen to over 50%, a significant increase from near zero at the beginning of the year; correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from over 60% to about 33%. The "currency devaluation trade" is becoming a shared narrative for BTC and gold.
ETF buying has indeed cooled down. From August 17 to 27, there was a cumulative net inflow of about $3.04 billion over 9 consecutive trading days, but on August 28, it turned into a single-day net outflow of about $202 million, ending the continuous inflows. However, the overall net inflow last week was still $924.5 million, and the cumulative inflow in August exceeded $3 billion. CryptoQuant analysts pointed out that on-chain Bitcoin retail activity reached the highest point in the past two years, with investor demand increasing by 17.4% over the past 30 days. Non-yielding assets as a whole are suppressed by interest rate hike expectations, and the safe-haven logic has not uniquely benefited crypto assets.
The core logic driving this round of pullback is Waller's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, with the probability of a September rate hike jumping from 35% to nearly 60%. The escalation of US-Iran conflict and oil prices soaring to $91 further reinforce inflation stickiness and tightening expectations.
The trend is on the bulls' side, but the short-term pullback is not over yet, so don't rush to bottom-fish. $BTC $XAU @OKX星球 ETF MONEY IS STILL FLOWING — SO WHY ARE $BTC AND $ETH CORRECTING?
ETF demand remains constructive, but short-term pressure is building. $BTC is around $77.8K and $ETH near $2.45K.
Profit-taking, rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, inflation fears, and stronger Fed hike expectations are weighing on risk assets.
The key: ETF flows signal structural demand, while macro, liquidity and leverage drive short-term volatility. A correction doesn’t necessarily mean capital is leaving crypto. ETF MONEY IS STILL FLOWING — SO WHY ARE $BTC AND $ETH CORRECTING?
ETF demand remains constructive, but short-term pressure is building. $BTC is around $77.8K and $ETH near $2.45K.
Profit-taking, rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, inflation fears, and stronger Fed hike expectations are weighing on risk assets.
The key: ETF flows signal structural demand, while macro, liquidity and leverage drive short-term volatility. A correction doesn’t necessarily mean capital is leaving crypto. Unitree Technology fell below 550 yuan, halving its first-day high of 1100 yuan
On September 2, according to Bitget market data, Unitree Technology fell below 550 yuan intraday, nearly 50% lower than its highest intraday price of 1,100 yuan on its first day of listing, and its current market value is about 222.4 billion yuan.
Unitree Technology is a well-known Chinese foot robot company, with products including robot dogs and humanoid and bionic robots, attracting significant attention both domestically and internationally. After its launch on the crypto trading platform, its asset price surged sharply driven by sentiment, reaching an intraday high of 1100 yuan on the first day of listing, then entering a continuous correction channel. Currently, the price has fallen below 550 yuan, with a cumulative drawdown of about 50%, and its market value has simultaneously shrunk to around 222.4 billion yuan.
This trend reflects a rapid fading of short-term capital speculation, and market valuation expectations for this asset are undergoing a strong revision. For technology assets newly listed on trading platforms, due to relatively limited circulating supply, prices are prone to excessive volatility driven by sentiment, forming a typical "surge—halve" path. From a fundamental perspective, Unitree Technology itself has actual business and technical accumulation, but its trading prices are more influenced by market supply and demand, capital sentiment, and liquidity, and have limited correlation with the company's short-term operating performance.
It is worth noting that the price fluctuations of this asset did not trigger chain reactions in other markets; mainstream cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets performed relatively steadily, indicating that this event remains isolated within the scope of a single asset. The price discovery process for such assets is often full of uncertainty, with investors participating#财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns are tested again
$CORE brothers, hit follow, don’t get lost!
I see many people actively selling because of this, feeling very frustrated.
Clearly, it’s not coin theft, not a bridge hack, and no money was lost, yet just because the official said "reward anomaly," didn’t disclose specific numbers, and didn’t promise to recover, everyone panicked and cut losses. To be clear, what’s causing panic isn’t the bug itself, but the lack of transparency— the less they say about how much was overissued, the more the market imagines the worst, the selling pressure grows, and eventually the price really crashes.
What’s more frustrating is that this kind of "silent kill" hurts retail investors the most. Institutions and whales have information channels and community connections to get insider news, while ordinary holders can only watch announcements and get a response of "coordinating." By the time you’ve sold out in panic, the report comes out saying "the overissued amount is minimal + has been recovered," and the price bounces back— a typical emotional sell-off, not a value sell-off.
But on the other hand, whether others sell is their choice; you decide your own position. If your cost is low and your position isn’t large, there’s no need to run with the panic sellers; if your position is heavy enough to lose sleep, reducing some to protect your mindset is reasonable. Don’t panic just because others do, and don’t hold on stubbornly just because "it’s not coin theft"— the key is how much drawdown you can bear. Wait for the post-mortem, wait for the hard fork to land, wait for the three numbers (overissued amount / whether recovered / how 2.1B is secured). Until then, in this bottoming market, the least valuable thing is emotional trades $CRV is worth keeping an eye on as this bull market gets heated..
as it’s obvious that the stablecoin market will keep getting more crowded, and every new stablecoin needs deep liquidity before people can actually use it..
so on Curve, projects compete for gauge votes to direct CRV incentives toward their pools.
so more stablecoins should mean more competition for votes and more CRV being locked.
then there is crvUSD and Llamalend capturing the borrowing side too.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds From August 31 to September 1, SanDisk experienced a full roller coaster ride over two trading days. Several factors came together behind this.
On August 31, SanDisk hit an intraday low of $1,449.50, then suddenly surged sharply near the close, finishing at $1,566.70, up 5.5%. This had nothing to do with fundamentals—no new orders, no technological breakthroughs, and the storage sector overall was flat that evening. It was due to the MSCI quarterly rebalancing taking effect after the close on August 31, officially including SanDisk in the MSCI Global Index. Passive funds tracking the index had to complete their allocations before the effective date. A large volume of buy orders flooded in during the last few minutes, forcibly pulling the falling stock price into the green. SanDisk was one of the largest weighted inclusions this time.
On September 1 before the market opened, the storage sector collectively plunged, giving back all the gains from the previous day. The storage chip sector fell broadly pre-market, with SanDisk down nearly 3%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to its highest level since January 2025. The macro environment was very unfavorable for tech growth stocks. The market opened at $1,526.53, hitting an intraday low of $1,513.00. But in the afternoon, there was a V-shaped reversal, with intraday gains expanding up to 2.5%. The rebound was supported by two solid pieces of news: first, TrendForce data showed SanDisk’s Q2 enterprise SSD revenue reached $2.98 billion, a quarter-on-quarter surge of 102.9%, with large-capacity QLC products entering a phase of scale expansion; second, although ChangXin Memory’s HBM3E posed competitive pressure, it also indirectly confirmed the strong demand for AI storage. $SNDK Why are exchange platform tokens the most stable business in crypto?
Take OKB as an example. Its revenue is tied to exchange trading volume, providing stable cash flow even in a bear market. The burn mechanism continuously deflates the supply, with over 70 million OKB tokens burned cumulatively. Ecosystem uses include fee discounts, Jumpstart token sales, and OKTC chain gas fees. Compared to other sectors, DeFi tokens suffer from severe inflation and volatile income, L1s rely on narratives with limited actual revenue, while platform tokens have real profits supporting a relatively reasonable valuation.
Is OKB at $109 expensive? It depends on how you define expensive. Anthropic secretly submitted its S-1 draft on June 1, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase serving as lead underwriters. The most recent funding round was the Series H on May 28, with a post-money valuation of $965 billion; according to the Financial Times on August 13, investors are targeting an October IPO with a valuation of $2 trillion or more. If achieved, this would surpass SpaceX's $1.77 trillion issuance on June 1 this year, becoming the largest IPO in history. Prediction markets estimate about a 70% probability of completing the IPO before the end of October, about 88% before the end of November, with a low probability in September. A trillion-dollar scale tech stock IPO would reprice the entire risk asset curve, and artificial intelligence and crypto have been competing for the same incremental capital over the past two years. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 1. The Middle East tensions have amplified this round of decline, but they are not the root cause; the root cause is the Fed's hawkish stance and rising expectations of rate hikes. The Middle East indirectly negatively impacts the crypto space by pushing up inflation expectations through oil prices.
2. At the current stage, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset; during geopolitical crises, do not expect it to act as a safe haven in the short term.
3. Key levels to watch: BTC 76385 low, ETH 2382 low; distinguish between momentary spikes and effective breaks of the candlestick body.Li Feifei World Labs released the Atlas world model, generating 3D scenes from photos and precisely controlling virtual shots
World Labs, founded by Li Feifei, released Atlas, claiming it is the world's first multimodal world model capable of precisely controlling shots to generate images and videos, while simultaneously completing 3D reconstruction. Users only need to provide one or a few photos and specify the lens route, and the model can fill in the unshot space, generate videos up to 1 minute in 1440p, and output depth and complete 3D scenes. Currently, the model is only available to select partners.
Atlas's core breakthrough lies in deeply integrating 3D reconstruction with generative AI. Traditional video models rely on text or images to generate pixels, with camera movements often described in natural language (such as "left shift" or "advance"). Atlas directly reads the camera's position and angle in 3D space to build a complete 3D scene, allowing virtual lenses to fly freely along designated paths, achieving a panoramic drone effect without capturing all angles. The more photos you input, the fewer areas the model needs to complete on its own, resulting in more accurate 3D scenes. World Labs defines Atlas as a "world model" because it not only predicts the next frame of pixels but also understands camera position, spatial relationships of objects, and visual content from different perspectives. Additionally, the model can transform real space into a simulation environment for robot training, providing low-cost data generation solutions for embodied intelligence. Currently, Atlas is only open to some partners and has not yet been disclosedLook, $TRUMP, that jerk secretly sells off as soon as it pumps up
The TRUMP token team address transferred out 11.01 million $TRUMP yesterday
Then it was flipped multiple times, with 2 million transferred to Binance
What’s the purpose of transferring, market making?
But it wouldn’t make sense to flip it back and forth so many times 🤣
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 My friend bought $TRUMP for $60, is there still a chance to break even?
Just checked the data, the team address transferred out 11.01 million TRUMP yesterday, worth 26.65 million, and finally 2 million coins were "washed back and forth" into the exchange. Is this going to dump the market?
Since April, they have dumped coins worth over 150 million USD, without reservation, dumping whenever there's a chance.
Should I tell him this news to make him despair! If the heart doesn't die, the path won't be born. Next time, be more careful.$BTC $ETH On Wednesday, September 2, the crypto market continued its weak oscillation under the disturbance of macro data, but the pace of decline was moderate, and key support levels remained effective. Overall, it is still within a normal technical correction range. The US August ISM Manufacturing PMI data became the market focus today, and the multiple signals it conveyed are worth a deep analysis.
First, the August ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.6, below the market expectation of 55.2 and down 1.0 point from July's 55.6, but still significantly above the 50-point expansion-contraction line by 4.6 points. The core of this data is not that manufacturing weakened to contraction, but that the momentum within the expansion range cooled down. It indicates that US manufacturing activity is still expanding, but the marginal strength is weaker than previously priced by the market. For the crypto market, this data reduces concerns that an overheated economy might force the Fed to tighten again, but it also does not signal economic weakness that would require rapid rate cuts, causing risk assets to lose a clear directional bet.
Second, historically, the manufacturing PMI has been in expansion for five consecutive months since April, fluctuating repeatedly during this period. The August decline looks more like a normal adjustment within an upward trend rather than a trend reversal. This "expansion but slowing" combination corresponds to a phase correction in an uptrend in the crypto market: the trend is intact, but there is a short-term lack of catalysts for a breakout.
Third, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.75% in both June and July. Although this PMI data reduces the urgency for further tightening, it is insufficient for the Fed to quickly shift to easing. The policy path will still depend on subsequent inflation and employment data. This caused the crypto market to lose the previous overly optimistic pricing for rate cuts; bulls chose to take profits, and bears dared not launch large-scale attacks, resulting in a low-volume, gradual decline.
From the market perspective, Bitcoin dipped to around $76,600 today, approaching but not breaking the key defense level of $76,000; Ethereum consolidated narrowly between $2,315 and $2,340, with the $2,300 support tested for several days but not effectively broken. Trading volume continued to shrink, and contract open interest declined, indicating leveraged funds are exiting, and the market has entered a low-capital tug-of-war between bulls and bears. This volume-less decline is essentially a natural pullback under a liquidity vacuum, not a panic sell-off.
In summary, the current crypto market decline is more a passive reaction to macro data repricing rather than a fundamental deterioration. As long as Bitcoin does not effectively break below $76,000 and Ethereum $2,300, the upward structure remains intact. Investors need not panic excessively nor blindly cut losses during this low-volume correction. The upcoming ADP employment and nonfarm payroll data later this week will provide clearer directional guidance; patiently waiting for clear signals is the rational strategy. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #美财长贝森特会谈日方，外汇与加息受关注 On September 1st, the DOGE futures market experienced a typical "short squeeze—bull trap—counterattack" scenario. Within one hour, shorts were liquidated for $111,000, longs suffered zero losses, and shorts faced extreme crushing pressure; four hours later, the tide turned sharply, with long liquidations rising to $558,000, shorts only $7,922, and the long-to-short liquidation ratio once reaching 70.4 times; by the 24-hour close, the long advantage narrowed to 6.56 times, with total liquidations amounting to $1,101,200, of which 81.9% occurred within 12 hours, clearly showing rapid momentum exhaustion. This trajectory indicates that high leverage is easily wiped out repeatedly in uncertain market directions. Looking at the macro picture, on Friday (September 4), the US August nonfarm payroll data will be released, with Reuters expecting an increase of 58,000 jobs, while July unexpectedly saw a decrease of 23,000. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Powell mentioned inflation 25 times in his Jackson Hole speech, and CME shows the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 60%. If the data weakens again, this expectation may quickly collapse. After a cumulative 28% rise in August, Bitcoin has retreated to the $78,000–$79,000 range, showing stronger correlation with gold. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have seen combined inflows of $7 billion. Broadcom and Dell earnings reports will also test AI hardware returns, but profit margin pressures have already appeared. The market is waiting for data to provide direction; leverage should be used cautiously. Risk warning: Futures and crypto assets are highly volatile; please manage your positions rationally. September 2 UNI Watch | The price increase is back, but value capture still needs to be analyzed separately
UNI trading clearly heated up today. OKX's UNI-USDT trading volume in the past 24 hours is about 36.48 million USDT, with the current price up approximately 12.5% from the opening price 24 hours ago. As the heat rises, it is even more important to understand that Uniswap v4 has turned the "trading pool" into scalable infrastructure: developers can add optional Hooks to individual pools to execute custom logic before and after initialization, liquidity changes, or swaps. One Hook can serve multiple pools.
This flexibility can support new designs like dynamic fees, but external Hook contracts also introduce additional code and permission risks, so the increase in protocol functionality should not be viewed in isolation. Especially during volume surges, the gap between feature expansion and token value is easier to overlook. UNI itself mainly serves governance: holders can delegate voting rights and participate in decisions on protocol fees, treasury spending, and more. Protocol trading volume, v4 adoption rate, and UNI price do not automatically synchronize; governance participation, fee mechanisms, token supply, and smart contract security still need to be observed. Today's volume surge represents a return of attention, not that value has already been realized.
$UNI #UNI
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. "$CORE Puzzle: When 'Smart Money' Meets an Invisible Hand" I originally thought the game was right—the exchange circulation surged nearly 300 million coins in three days, with the clear cards laid out on the table, just like the "last supper" before selling higher. I entered the market with an abacus in hand, hoping to follow the market and have a sip of soup, waiting for that soaring bullish candlestick to break the silence of 0.021. But the market didn't go as planned. This line was like a welded pillar of mercury, barely a millimeter up or down, and orders were as solid as a wall of bronze. The project team's tactics weren't violent, but "endurance"—weaving a sticky web with intraday charts, trapping both long and short positions in it, unable to move. I started to sense the familiar routine: no rallying, just sideways trading, waiting for patience to run out, for leverage to accumulate, then stepping into new lows, shattering all bottom-fishing dreams in the deep waters before dawn. The cruelest part is, you know it's possible, but there's no way out. To save that pitiful average price, I can only set a lower bid, digging down like quicksand, hoping to find a hard bottom. I used to laugh at others for chasing rises and selling, but now I've become a believer in "spreading out costs." Trying to make smart money, but ended up living like the person in the joke—sweating chips, profits all green. This is probably the fate of beginners: you can see volume, but can't figure out your heart; You can calculate prices, but can't predict human nature. The only thing you can do is to engrave this "foolishness" into your trading log, and when the next storm hits, remember to ask yourself first—did you put a hook in this soup?BTC has fallen below 77,000.
The lowest point in the early morning hit 76,997 USD, down 2.4% in 24 hours. ETH simultaneously dropped below 2,400, and SOL lost the 100 USD mark. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidations reached 239 million USD, with longs accounting for 198 million.
Why the drop? The US and Iran have clashed.
The US launched airstrikes inside Iran targeting the Revolutionary Guard. Iran retaliated by firing heavy ballistic missiles at the US military base in Jordan. Brent crude surged to around 92 USD.
When oil prices rise, inflation expectations increase—CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has soared to 66.9%, nearly doubling compared to before the Jackson Hole meeting. Risk assets are under broad pressure, with crypto hit first and hardest.
But two things are worth noting.
First, ETF inflows haven't stopped. On September 1, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 217 million USD, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing 205.9 million. Ethereum ETFs have had 11 consecutive days of gains, cumulatively attracting 1.6 billion USD.
Second, Strategy bought again. After two months, it purchased 4,603 BTC for 369.7 million USD, bringing total holdings to 845,000 BTC.
Geopolitical conflict is a short-term shock; institutional allocation is a medium-term trend. The two are clashing head-on at the 77,000 level.
My judgment remains unchanged: no bearish outlook before September 15. The war will end, oil prices will fall back, but ETF money and Strategy's holdings won't disappear overnight.
Below 80,000, every panic is an opportunity.
$BTC $ETH