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TRUMP at $2.40, do you dare to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: after a surge, high-level oscillation, retail investors are conflicted.
On August 22, there was extreme single-day volatility: opened at 1.87, peaked at 3.68, closed at 2.44. Since then, multiple attempts to test 3.0 were all pushed back. Today at 2.40, down 6%-8%, hovering slightly below the midline of the high-level oscillation range. 3.0-3.7 is a clear supply wall, and 2.28 below is a critical lifeline.
First thing: explosive rallies rely on sentiment, cashing out relies on the team.
The White House crypto summit combined with rising risk appetite ignited this surge from 1.4 to 3.68. Eric Trump just denied the "new coin issuance" rumor, calling it a scam—but the rumor itself was the best fuel.
During the rally, related wallets cashed out about $3.39 million through liquidity operations, and another approximately 2.62 million tokens (about $6.21 million) were transferred to OK.
You might think it's a "political faith" rally, but they treat it as "liquidity management."
Second thing: the supply structure is the biggest risk for this coin.
Total supply is 1 billion tokens, with about 251 million circulating. Trump-related entities (like CIC Digital) still control most chips and plan to unlock in batches. Around mid-September, another batch of about 28.7 million tokens is expected to be released.
Third thing: the technicals are at a "neither up nor down" position.
The daily structure rose from 1.37, with a 30-day gain still at 60%-75%, and the mid-term structure is not completely broken. But 3.0-3.7 is a clear supply zone; bulls tried to test it four times and were pushed back each time. Volume was huge on rally days but shrank significantly on pullbacks—chasing funds are retreating, not continuously accumulating.
Only by reclaiming 2.94 with volume can it challenge 3.6.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
- White House crypto summit + political heat remain, meme has narrative premium
- Higher highs and lows from 1.37, mid-term structure intact
- Huge contract volume, active short-term trading funds
- Support at 2.28-2.32 held multiple times
On the other side:
- Team cashed out nearly $10 million during the rally, real internal selling pressure
- Expected unlocking of about 28.7 million tokens mid-September, supply pressure incoming
- Two-thirds of wallets are still at a loss, selling pressure on rebounds
- Public Citizen report says related products caused investors to lose at least $4.7 billion unrealized
- California plans legislation to ban public officials from issuing meme coins, regulatory clouds
Resistance above: 2.52-2.60 → 2.72-2.94 → 3.05-3.20 → 3.60-3.68
Support below: 2.28-2.32 (strong support) → 2.11-2.17 → 2.00
Trading strategies
Plan A:
Wait for volume to push above 2.58-2.62 and hold on pullback before lightly going long, target 2.85-2.95, stop loss below 2.38. Don't chase the rebound from 2.4 after the downtrend unless volume picks up and turns within 1 hour.
Plan B:
Range between 2.28-2.95. Only go short-term long near 2.28-2.32 with volume contraction and a lower shadow, target 2.52/2.72, reduce positions at 2.85-2.95. If rebound to 2.72-2.94 lacks volume or has a long upper shadow, reduce longs or lighten shorts, target back to 2.50-2.40.
Plan C:
If daily close breaks below 2.28 effectively, short-term turns weak, exit or reverse to target 2.15-2.00. Only if volume recovers and holds above 2.94, raise target to 3.20-3.40.
Don't use "Trump tweeting" as an entry reason—his tweets can pump 20%, but team token transfers can dump 15%.
The catalysts for the rise (summit, rumors, short squeeze) have already played out. Cash-out, unlocking, regulation, and trapped holders remain. Macro environment doesn't support unlimited leverage for meme coins.
Only two scenarios make me more aggressive: stabilization near 2.28 with BTC strengthening simultaneously, or volume breakout above 2.94.
TRUMP is not an investment, it's a game—
99% treat it as "political faith," but remember: the team is selling, unlocking is coming, trapped holders are waiting to sell on rebounds. You bet on faith; they bet on liquidity.
"The biggest illusion of political memes is—you think you're betting on the future, but you're actually handing the bag to insiders."
What's your TRUMP cost?
At 2.40, do you dare to bottom-fish or wait for lower?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Recently, Bitcoin surged to 80,000. Some people say they will definitely buy and go all-in if Bitcoin drops to 60,000. Pouring cold water on that, it's simply impossible. In 2021, after the crash on May 19, Bitcoin fell from 64,000 to 28,000—a historic plunge. Many altcoins dropped 50% within an hour, and Ethereum plunged straight from 4,200 to 1,700. Despair and fear filled the two months that followed. Unexpectedly, the bear market never came. Bitcoin directly rallied to 69,000 in November. During that time, whenever I chatted with friends, we would firmly say, "If Bitcoin drops to 28,000 again, we will sell our houses and go all-in." 2022 arrived. Bitcoin kept falling from 69,000. When it returned to 28,000, I didn't dare to buy because LUNA had collapsed. When it dropped below 20,000, I didn't dare to buy because Three Arrows Capital went bankrupt. When it fell to 16,000, I still didn't dare to buy because FTX collapsed. A person who is afraid to buy during panic won't dare to buy even if given another chance. A smart investor only buys during panic without worrying about the price. Suppose this time Bitcoin drops below 70,000 and causes panic, then they start buying regardless of what happens next. But some people will wait at 70,000 for 60,000, at 60,000 for 50,000, at 50,000 for 40,000... The only time they dare to buy is at the end of a bull market when prices surge and good news floods in. Leverage is not scary; what's scary is that you don't know how to use it at all.
A large number of people in the crypto space use leverage, and many end up dying because of it.
But I have always believed:
Leverage itself is not wrong; the problem is that you don't have a complete investment system but have learned to use leverage first.
In my system, leverage and spot trading are essentially the same.
The simplest way to understand it is buying a house with a mortgage.
Twenty or thirty years ago, when house prices were low enough and you didn't have enough principal, you could use low-cost loans to buy quality assets in advance; leverage amplifies your returns.
It's the same in the crypto world.
But I only use one kind of leverage:
At bottom areas, low multiples, loan-based, and only long positions.
Not 10x or 20x contracts, and definitely not guessing daily ups and downs.
My logic has three layers.
First, determine the long-term asset.
If the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to rise over the next few years, I focus on ETH rather than holding heavy positions in BTC simultaneously. Only when E/B reaches an obvious extreme area do I consider switching between ETH and BTC.
Second, judge the timing.
I'm not obsessed with "bull market or bear market."
Looking at the ten-year heat map of BTC and ETH, you can see:
Every year has months of gains and months of losses.
What I do is hold cash during down phases and hold coins during up phases.
Third, I only consider leverage when the price truly enters the bottom area.
First, fully or heavily load spot positions.
If the market continues to break down and enters an even more extreme low-price zone, I will pledge BTC to borrow USD, then buy BTC.Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stated: 20.07 million Bitcoins have been mined, accounting for 95.6% of the cap. If 10%–20% are permanently lost, the actual circulating supply is less than 18 million. Meanwhile, the US alone has about 23.6 million millionaires, so "one coin per person" does not hold. However, scarcity refers to the stock, while pricing depends on marginal liquidity. Currently, $BTC is priced at $78,572, up 0.56% in 24h, with a market cap of 1.57 trillion; about 930,000 remain to be mined until 2140, increasing by about 13,500 per month. In August, spot ETF net inflows exceeded $3 billion, equivalent to 38,000 coins, three times the recent monthly production. The supply side has long been extremely tight, yet the price remains below previous highs—the real selling pressure comes from the stock supply of long-term holders, not new issuance. Also, BTC can be divided into 100 million satoshis; the "whole coin" is just a narrative unit. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC Powell's silence lets the market digest the script on its own. Inflation stickiness remains, employment data leaves no room for concessions, financial conditions are neither clearly tight nor loose, officials verbally emphasize "data dependence" but are actually leaving room for expectations. Market pricing for November has gradually shifted from an even split to nearly 70% probability, short-term yields climbed to 4.45%, equities and commodities each seek direction, and crypto assets followed the risk curve back and forth.
$ETH In the early morning, Israel deployed tactical operations in the Golan Heights, and air raid sirens sounded on the Lebanon border, repricing geopolitical cues. BTC faced resistance near 79,500 and pulled back, with an intraday low of 78,200, testing the short-term bullish structure. The 78,000 to 79,000 range is a recent trading concentration zone; if this range is repeatedly tested without effective rebounds, the gap support between 76,500 and 77,500 will absorb selling pressure. If it can quickly reclaim above 78,800, short-term sentiment can remain stable; otherwise, the time for consolidation and correction will be extended.
$SOL Don't be fooled by the rebound, nor scared off by the decline. At this stage, waiting for a clear structure is more important than rushing to take positions. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. $BTC $ETH $SOLThe latest weekly ETF fund data has been released: Bitcoin ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $924 million, and Ethereum ETFs attracted $824 million, with both major mainstream coin ETFs seeing large-scale capital inflows simultaneously. Putting these two sets of data together, one can clearly feel that overseas institutions remain enthusiastic about allocation to crypto assets. Massive incremental capital inflows continue to provide market support to some extent and enhance the underlying stability of the market. The scale of Ethereum ETF inflows is already very close to Bitcoin, showing that institutions' allocation to ETH is steadily increasing. But there is a key reminder in the news: capital can flow in massively, and during market downturns, rapid outflows can also occur. Don't be blindly optimistic just by focusing on impressive net inflow numbers. Net inflows indicate institutions are currently buying, but ETF funds are flowing, not just inflows but not out. Once panic sets in, institutions will also redeem and exit, and when large funds flee quickly, the price decline will be further amplified. The market plunge triggered by geopolitical news is the best example. Even with favorable liquidity conditions, sudden news can still trigger sharp pullbacks. Many people immediately predict a big rally when they see huge inflows. It's important to clarify here: ETFs are medium- to long-term allocation signals, and funds accumulate in batches, not mean the price will rise immediately in the short term. Capital inflows only show institutions are willing to position at this level, not as a basis for short-term long positions. The market will continue to be affected by multiple factors: geopolitical situation, macro news, and market sentiment🌅 Early Monday morning, global financial markets collectively plunged, triggered by renewed clashes between the US and Iran.
In the early hours of August 31, the US military airstruck Iran's Larak Island. This is the first openly acknowledged physical military strike by the US since the ceasefire broke down in July.
Unlike the unilateral partial blockade of the Strait by Iran in March, this time the US military proactively targeted rocket launchers, prompting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to retaliate with missile launches. The conflict has officially escalated from a simple oil price risk pricing to a two-way direct military confrontation.
💡 Intriguing timing background
Recently, Trump signaled willingness to negotiate and open dialogue with Iran.
The underlying reality: US domestic public opinion is war-weary, hoping to end Middle East consumption; stabilizing oil prices to suppress inflation also helps gain public support for the midterm elections.
However, this raid directly shrinks the space for diplomatic negotiations.
A mainstream market speculation is that some forces do not favor a smooth US-Iran reconciliation.
Israel has consistently opposed compromises with Iran; once ceasefire talks succeed, it would undermine the legitimacy of its military actions; hawks within the US also do not want negotiations to proceed smoothly.
The crypto market weakened in sync, with BTC falling below the 78,000 mark.
One notable phenomenon: in this round of geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin's movement is synchronized with crude oil rather than following gold.
Interestingly, the traditional safe-haven asset gold did not rise as expected but instead opened sharply lower.
The macro logic behind this is worth pondering: the market is currently pricing in more than simple panic-driven risk aversion.
Rising oil prices bring energy inflation concerns, directly compressing the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts $BTC 📝 Today's share on $ETH
ETH at 2400, I think it's an opportunity
ETH is back to 2400 again.
I remember at the beginning of August when ETH was at 1850, everyone was complaining "Ethereum is done," the exchange rate dropped to 0.029, and many people cut losses and exited. Then what happened? It rose to 2500 in three weeks, and those who came back were left waiting.
Now ETH is back to 2400, the bearish news is that whales are selling—40,000 coins dumped in two days, about $120 million. Retail investors got scared and followed the sell-off.
But on the other side, the Ethereum spot ETF has had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling over $1.4 billion, with BlackRock alone buying $1 billion. Whales are selling, institutions are buying. Who is doing the right thing? History tells me it's the latter.
ETH at 2400, exchange rate 0.031, not far from the two-year low. I think this level is not expensive. I'm not telling you to go all in, but I suggest you don't panic sell at this price.
When institutions are buying and retail investors are panicking, it's usually the start of a good trade.
I won't sell at this level. I'll wait, wait for 2380 to hold, wait for the whales to finish dumping, wait for the exchange rate to rebound. I've held this from 1870 until now; if you panic after a few hundred points of pullback, then you might as well not do long-term.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The market looks strong on the surface. The interesting part is that BTC still can’t clear $80K. Bitcoin is around $78.4K after a roughly 24% August rally, while U.S. spot BTC ETFs pulled about $1.92B last week. That’s real demand — yet price remains below the same psychological resistance. That tells me the market is bullish, but not yet confirmed. There’s another risk: renewed U.S.–Iran tensions are pushing oil higher and increasing expectations for a more hawkish Fed. That macro pressure canThis week's employment data is being released intensively, and the hawkish tone set by the Jackson Hole event is about to be tested.
ADP, initial jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls are coming out one after another; the first hard data after the annual meeting will directly determine the policy direction for September.
Last week, the first Jackson Hole appearance by the Fed released a clear hawkish signal: firmly insisting that the 2% inflation target is non-negotiable, believing that the summer inflation improvement is insufficient to prove a trend reversal, the labor market is still in a full employment range, and if inflation cannot quickly fall back, "there is still work to be done." After the speech, the market's probability of a September rate hike rose directly from 35% to about 60%.
Employment data is the core premise of this hawkish logic. Employment resilience supports consumption and wages, which ultimately transmits to inflation stickiness. If the data is overall strong, it validates the Fed's judgment, and rate hike expectations will continue to heat up, putting further pressure on risk assets; if employment cools significantly, the hawkish stance will directly loosen, and the market will quickly adjust expectations for a policy shift.
Regarding the crypto market, currently $BTC is oscillating narrowly between 77,000-78,000, $ETH is repeatedly battling around 2,400, and $SOL is consolidating between 100-103; both bulls and bears are waiting for data to set the direction. If the data leans hawkish, key supports will be tested: BTC looks at 76,000-77,000, breaking that targets 75,000; ETH looks at 2,400, breaking that targets 2,300; SOL looks at 100, breaking that targets 97. If the data leans dovish, it opens room for a rebound.
My view: try to keep light positions and observe before the data is released; don't bet on direction prematurely, wait for clear signals before making moves.
Personal opinion, for pure communication.🔥 $BTC | THE SUPPLY-SIDE BATTLE
Bitcoin gained roughly 24% in August, its strongest August since 2017, while spot ETFs attracted about $1.92B in one week.
The deeper thesis:$BTC
BTC is entering a market where demand is becoming more structural — but the real question is how much supply long-term holders are willing to release.
That’s where the next repricing gets decided. 🔥$BTC
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation Intraday volatility may be weak. From pre-market signals, the three major stock index futures generally declined: S&P 500 futures fell about 0.17%, Dow futures about 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures once fell 0.7%. Market sentiment is weak, with the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rising to 60%. Rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, historically directly linked to reduced liquidity and downward price pressure. Geopolitical conflicts amplify crypto market volatility through oil prices→ inflation expectations→ interest rate paths→ global risk appetite, and BTC has seen a short-term decoupling from gold. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of about $3 billion for nine consecutive days, but ETF subscriptions were suspended over the weekend, temporarily disrupting the main demand channel supporting the recent rally. $BTC/$ETH both under pressure: $BTC fell below $78,000, $ETH declined even more (-1.61%), and has fallen below $2,500. $ETH daily chart closed with a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, with heavy selling pressure above. US and Iran resumed operations in Iran, Brent crude jumped 2.5% to $90.32. In theory, this should trigger risk aversion and benefit Bitcoin, but in reality, Bitcoin and gold have seen a short-term depegging—gold fell 3.8% during the week, BTC still maintains positive returns, indicating the market is currently pricing in the chain of "rising oil prices→ worsening inflation→ Fed making rate cuts harder," rather than "buying BTC → safe-haven." ETF flows: Last week, ETFs saw net inflows of about $3 billion for nine consecutive days, but outflows occurred on the day of the speech. ETF after the US market opened tonightAs September kicks off, U.S. labor data may set the tone for the cryptocurrency market, with Friday's employment report set to be the main event of the week. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while the combined May and June figures were revised down by 103,000—significantly increasing attention to the August readings (market expectation of 58,000) ADP private employment and JOLTS job openings providing an earlier look at employment conditions. If the data weakens, it could lower expectations for rate hikes and weigh on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. Conversely, if a rebound occurs, the impact will shift in the opposite direction: payroll (employment) data falls on a Fed that has failed to make prior promises, with Friday's data carrying more weight than typical payroll releases, as Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole. Wash refused to commit to anything—"What I stand here today is committed to discipline, not a decision"—and dismissed forward-looking guidance as routine practice, believing it "has already gone beyond the welcome timeframe for a real crisis." Fawad Razaqzada of StoneX directly interpreted the consequences: under the new chair, the Fed has become more data-dependent. A committee that does not send path signals will have its September 16 decisions depend on inter-meeting data. During the speech, the market's pricing for a more hawkish stance was quickly raised: according to CME FedWatch,Bitcoin faces the most critical test of the month after a surge: climbing from 62,000 to above 80,000, it suddenly encountered selling pressure, with the price clearly resisted around 81,000 and then falling back to near 77,000. On the surface, this looks like another high-level correction, but what truly deserves attention is not the decline itself, but the market's directional choice after losing momentum.🟠
The 80,000 mark is not only a psychological price level but also the real resistance point in this rally. After the price fell below it, short-term momentum quickly weakened. Currently, 77,000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears—if it can hold and rebound back to the 78,000 to 80,000 range, this can still be seen as a normal consolidation after a sharp rise; if it fails, the structure will shift toward a deeper demand zone between 72,000 and 74,000. Compared to news, the gain or loss of support levels is more worth watching.
This wave of decline is not solely due to pressure in the crypto market. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials at Jackson Hole have changed the macro environment, implying that if inflation does not clearly fall to the 2% target, interest rates may still rise. U.S. Treasury yields have risen, the dollar has strengthened, and the probability of a rate hike has jumped from about 35% to over 55%, putting pressure on risk assets generally, and Bitcoin is no exception.
The upcoming trend is essentially a test of whether Bitcoin can maintain resilience in an environment of weakening liquidity expectations.📊
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above is only an objective review and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously. $BTC$TRUMP — Is the Momentum Over?
I’m holding a $TRUMP short from around $2.60, position size ~$6,200, currently +$408.
Open Interest is declining after the recent surge, while funding sits at -0.0104%. Shorts are crowded, so a squeeze remains the biggest risk here. Momentum is also starting to weaken after the explosive move higher.
As long as $TRUMP stays below $2.60–$2.70, I expect the correction to continue. First target: $2.20–$2.25. If that zone breaks, I’m watching $2.00 next.Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to be aware of risks. The vast majority of losses in the market do not come from the market itself, but from traders' own cognitive biases. People instinctively interpret the market based on their own subjective expectations, selectively accepting signals that align with their own ideas, and filtering out conflicting realities. The logic behind BTC and ETH market trends is complex and easily amplifies such psychological misconceptions. Often, it's not that the market is misreading, but that our cognitive filters distort objective facts. Recognizing common cognitive biases is essential for improving the quality of trading decisions. The most common bias in Bitcoin is overly optimistic linear extrapolation. When ETFs continue to see net inflows and long-term holders hold solid chips, the market naturally deduces: since the foundation is solid, the market will keep rising. But in reality, stable chips can only limit downside space, not open up upward potential. Macro liquidity, trapped positions above, and institutional periodic profit-taking will all become constraints for upward movement. Many traders directly equate "large-scale cycle logic holds" with "short-term inevitable rises," ignoring the possibility of prolonged fluctuations in between. Seeing positive on-chain indicators, they assume a breakout is imminent, ignoring that macro conditions are not yet fully in place. Bitcoin has no cash flow; valuation is determined by external conditions. If the underlying logic is correct, it can still experience quarterly sideways movements. At the same time, there is another bias: short-term redemptions or pullbacks completely reject medium- to long-term allocation logic and treat temporary fluctuations as trend reversals. True maturityThe market has been trading sideways with shrinking volume for a long time, trading volume remains sluggish, and both bulls and bears have temporarily reached a balance, lacking enough strength to push prices out of a major rally. In this environment, the gap between market expectations and actual fundamentals is becoming increasingly apparent. On Bitcoin's side, institutional allocation narratives still hold true, but capital behavior has changed. Spot ETFs no longer see sustained large net inflows; funds fluctuate with macro data, and institutions focus more on economic fundamentals rather than blindly entering through narratives. Long-term on-chain coin accumulation remains stable, with many assets dormant, providing bottom support for prices. However, various innovations in the second-layer ecosystem are still in the iteration and improvement stage, with long implementation cycles, making it difficult to become market hotspots in the short term. Bitcoin's price remains highly dependent on external liquidity conditions, and changes in macro expectations directly influence market fluctuations. Ethereum's on-chain fundamentals have not deteriorated, staking and lock sizes remain high, deflationary mechanisms continue to operate, and layer-2 network infrastructure continues to iterate and optimize. However, the real problems of the ecosystem remain unresolved; the industry still relies mainly on stock competition, making it difficult to attract large numbers of external new users. The dividends brought by technological upgrades are long-term and cannot be quickly realized as market rallies. Even with continuous improvement of underlying infrastructure, ETH's trend remains difficult to break away from the overall market environment, and conditions for independent rallies are not yet in place. The biggest problem in the current market is the lack of a core catalyst to break the deadlock. The market keeps repricing the timing of rate cuts, overseas regulatory policies are uncertain, and on-chainWhales are starting to increase their long positions in ETH and SOL.
The market might interpret these positions as "big money betting early on altcoin catch-up rallies," but my judgment differs: whale positions only tell me that someone is willing to take on risk; they do not confirm the direction.
Today, Hyperliquid's third largest ETH long added about 5,089 ETH, with an average entry price around $2,449. The total long position is now about 30,300 ETH, still showing significant unrealized gains overall. On the other side, an address has been building a long position of about 282,700 SOL since the weekend, with an average cost of approximately $104.79, a nominal size close to $30 million.
Note, both of these are verifiable long positions, not ordinary transfers misinterpreted as "whales going long."
But why am I not following?
Because the macro environment is exerting pressure in the opposite direction. BTC is still capped at $80,000, US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices above $90, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike again in September have intensified.
So what I’m watching now is whether the price proves the whales right.
If ETH can hold near 2,440 and continue upward, I remain bullish; if SOL can firmly reclaim 105–107, then I acknowledge this large position gaining the upper hand.
Conversely, if whales keep adding but ETH and SOL fail to break key levels, I will be more cautious—because that means big money is accumulating, but selling pressure is still absorbing their chips.
Whales can withstand 20% volatility; we don’t necessarily have to go along with them #Solana Inflation Reduction Proposal Passed the Vote
The leader has something to say
The SOL inflation reduction proposal just passed with 67% support, 176.29M votes in favor, just crossing the two-thirds threshold. Over six years, 18.9 million fewer SOL will be issued.
The voting process was intense; Kraken, the largest validator, switched to support at the last moment, Galaxy Digital abstained then voted in favor, and the Helius CEO made 500 calls to rally votes. Community participation was high, with 1,326 validators voting and a turnout rate of 60.7%. $BTC $ETH $SOL
In the long term, supply tightens, and staking yields will drop from 5.25% to around 2.25%. Whether transaction fees can cover the shortfall is the key point to watch next. Don't chase the short-term high; SOL has risen from 103 to 116, already fulfilling most of the expected gains. Buy again on a pullback to the 103-105 range, with a stop loss at 98.
The proposal implementation requires 4.5 months of technical development, so inflation won't decrease immediately. The positive narrative is already priced in; the real supply change will come next year. Take what you should take, wait if you should wait.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop loss. Good luck.So, what’s next?
$77,000 is the most critical short-term level. If it holds, there’s a chance to test $80,000 again; if it doesn’t, we could see $75,000 or even $72,000–$73,000. In a more pessimistic scenario, Citibank’s bearish target price is $53,000.
That said, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped from last week’s 81 "Extreme Greed" to now between 61 and 75, indicating cooling market sentiment. "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"—this phrase is overused, but few really dare to act on it when it comes true.
This recent drop is essentially a triple resonance of tightening macro interest rate expectations + geopolitical risk premium + a short-term liquidity vacuum. The long-term fundamentals haven’t changed, but the short-term pain is real.
Are you choosing to cut losses and exit, or to buy the dip in batches during the panic? Share your thoughts in the comments. Follow me, and after we get through this period, we’ll meet at the top.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Employment data is coming, and rate hike expectations have already tightened 👊
This week, JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and non-farm payrolls will be released one after another. The labor market will be the ultimate judge for the September rate hike. July's non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June were cumulatively revised down by 103,000 — hiring demand is indeed cooling, which was originally a reason to support pausing rate hikes.
But Waller burned those expectations down at Jackson Hole. Inflation is above 2%, financial conditions are not yet restrictive — after hearing this, the market immediately pushed the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to nearly 60%. U.S. Treasury yields rose, and both gold and BTC were suppressed.
This week's data will be crucial: if employment continues to cool, Waller's hawkish stance will loosen; if employment strengthens instead, the market will have to reprice the interest rate path.
$BTC finally surged above 80,000, whether it can hold this week depends entirely on the data.
What do you think? 🙈#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 New data has emerged recently on the supply side of $BTC‼️‼️
BTC that hasn't moved for over 10 years has reached 3.56 million coins, accounting for 17.7% of the circulating supply, hitting a historic high! In the past 30 days, another 14,000 BTC have joined the "sleeping" ranks.
This data means that 1 out of every 6 BTC hasn't moved for over 10 years.
Long-term holders are not selling either; addresses holding for more than 155 days control 16.35 million BTC, accounting for 83% of the total circulating supply, with an increase of about 1.38 million in the past 90 days. CZ also mentioned a few days ago that an estimated 10%-20% of BTC may be permanently lost.
The supply side is indeed tightening. With fewer BTC available for circulation, any new demand will have a greater impact on the price, but where is the demand⁉️
Scarcity can only truly translate into upward momentum when demand picks up. The 21 million cap on Bitcoin is fixed, but the actual tradable chips may be much fewer than imagined. This story has been told for over a decade; what the market needs is buying pressure, not stories.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 Hello everyone, good evening market update 🐮🐮
My personal judgment is that BTC will continue to move upward, with the first target at 79500, then looking to break through 81500, after which a pullback is expected.
On Friday, the speech by Walsh landed, the market interpreted it as hawkish, raising rate hike expectations, BTC dipped to 76800. Over the weekend, market liquidity was sluggish, and the whales took the opportunity to push the price up to 79300, essentially to collect contract liquidity, then closed by smashing back near 76900, a rise in vain.
From this wave of market action, the probability of a bullish trend is actually higher. I have already entered a long position, with two points above prepared for taking profit.
Gold is also bullish, with long positions arranged at 4440.
I always believe Walsh's speech is essentially neutral to dovish, but the market over-interpreted it as hawkish.
The US is now in a dilemma: no rate hike means inflation is hard to suppress; rate hikes mean US debt and fiscal pressure will be unbearable.
Moreover, except for China, the whole world is raising rates, and cross-border arbitrage space is narrowing.
By the way, about AI: the story can be told, but if large continuous investments do not produce actual effective output, even the best narrative will collapse. Trust and capital investment will continuously decay over time.
⚠️This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC C $XAU On August 27, Charles Schwab announced it would add these three assets to Schwab Crypto in the coming months. Previously, the platform only offered spot trading for BTC and ETH. This meant Wall Street's recognition of mainstream crypto assets was expanding from BTC and ETH to a handful of leading altcoins. SOL, AVAX, and LINK received tickets to traditional investment accounts, opening the door, but whether funds would come in depended on the market. Charles Schwab Wealth Management is not an ordinary brokerage Schwab Wealth Management was founded in 1971. In 1975, the US abolished the fixed commission system, and Charles Schwab seized the opportunity to significantly reduce stock trading costs, becoming a representative of discount brokers in the US. In 2019, Schwab was the first to reduce online trading commissions for US stocks and ETFs to zero. In 2020, it completed the acquisition of TD Ameritrade, bringing the thinkorswim trading system under its umbrella. Schwab's position in the U.S. financial market is close to a combination of brokerages, banks, asset management platforms, and advisory infrastructure. As of the end of July 2026, Schwab had 39.9 million active securities accounts, client assets reached $13.04 trillion, and it served over 16,000 independent investment advisory institutions. By client assets, it is the largest publicly listed investment services company in the U.S. Schwab operating data Therefore, this time cannot be simply understood as an exchange adding three new tokens. Exchange listing adds a trading entry point within the crypto community. Schwab listing means stuffing crypto assets into a familiar area for traditional investors$CORE eagerly awaited positive news, but what came was just another harvesting script.
The gate is built splendidly, but the construction site has long been halted. CORE's recent market performance vividly illustrates this saying.
The circulation rate quietly reached 70.78%, and the pace of chip release suddenly accelerated. At midnight, the official Twitter timely released a dose of hype narrative; many holders woke up to the news, thinking the turning point had finally arrived, eagerly adding positions to catch the bottom.
The ending never brings surprises.
A large volume of unlocked chips during the day swarmed to crush the market; the brief pulse flashed by, and the coin price fell back and weakened again.
This script has been played countless times: laying out new stories overseas late at night, fermenting emotions through time differences, waiting for domestic retail investors to enter with high hopes, just to absorb the continuous selling pressure.
SatPay and BTCFi promotions are everywhere, but the landing progress keeps being delayed, and on-chain real activity remains low for a long time. Without real business bringing incremental buying, the project can only keep weaving new narratives, barely sustaining the community's remaining faith.
It’s not an immediate run, but the traces of seizing the window period to distribute chips in batches while the market position is still acceptable can no longer be hidden.
Nearly 30% of tokens are still not in circulation, and heavy selling pressure will hang over holders for a long time.
No matter how flashy the marketing narrative is, it ultimately cannot cover up the long-stagnant ecosystem. Setting Fed events aside, the key differences come down to liquidity, chip structure and valuation. 🟠 $BTC Institutional ETF demand + strong long-term holders = relatively stable supply. Without fresh external capital, BTC may remain range-bound rather than enter a sustained breakout. 🔵 $ETH A mix of institutional, DeFi, L2 and derivatives capital. Staking reduces liquid supply, but trapped overhead supply and L2 value diversion remain constraints. ETH needs stronger ecosystem fundamentals to Exchange decentralization.
On August 20, Binance launched Agent OS, packaging trading, market data, wallets, payments, and on-chain services into standardized interfaces, allowing third-party AI applications to connect directly, with MCP protocol support as well. It didn't create another chatbot but enabled agents to actually perform operations.
The key lies in permission design.
Documentation shows agents can only operate dedicated sub-accounts; funds must be manually transferred in, withdrawal permissions are restricted, and they cannot access the main account balance. This is more restrained than I expected. My judgment: AI agent trading will come sooner or later; the difference lies in how cleanly risk isolation is implemented. Before using, check three things: the maximum funds the agent can move, whether withdrawals are restricted, and if there is a manual circuit breaker. Letting agents place orders for you is fine, but handing over the main account keys is not.With the midterm elections approaching, the US military strikes Iran again. Who gave Trump the courage? Liang Jingru?
Of course not!
┈➤ The US and Venezuela reach an oil agreement
◆ August 28: Trump announced an oil agreement with Venezuela.
◆ August 29-30: Venezuela disclosed more details of the agreement.
◆ August 30-31: The US military attacked Iran again.
┈➤ A decent agreement
This cooperation is between the US government and Venezuela's private company NABEP, which does not own oil fields but only has development rights.
In terms of shareholding, the US holds 35%, Venezuela holds 65%.
The US can purchase 20% of the oil production at cost price with priority.
Overall, Venezuela holds a higher equity share at 65%, while the US side has a higher oil production allocation right at 55%.
Therefore, Venezuela still retains sovereignty and control over oil resources. The US gains future crude oil supply.
┈➤ In conclusion
It is precisely because of this agreement that Trump has confidence. After the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil industry, crude oil production can increase and be exported to the US, which will help lower US oil prices.
Of course, rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure, which has been idle for many years, also takes time. So in the short term, it at most soothes market sentiment. Trump is unlikely to take large-scale action against Iran in the short term. At least not before the midterm elections.The roadmap is here.
Ethlabs released the EIP priorities for the Hegotá hard fork: S-level includes EIP-8198 Quick Slots to shorten block time, EIP-8131/8279 to optimize resource pricing; A-level is EIP-8141 Frame Transactions for native account abstraction, managing passkey wallets, gas sponsorship, and batch transactions. Censorship resistance relies on FOCIL.
In short: Ethereum aims to be faster, more censorship-resistant, and make wallets no longer dependent on mnemonic phrases.
My judgment: Don’t wait until the mainnet launch to learn; you can understand the direction now. When choosing wallets and apps, first check three things: whether passkey is supported, if gas can be sponsored, and if transactions can be batched. These are not distant promises but items on the hard fork checklist. $BTC whale position profit and loss data! The story behind it is really something.
The market is currently in an uptrend.
Long positions hold a value of $4.473 billion, with margin at $639 million, about 7x leverage, and unrealized profit of $368 million, indicating that the long position cost is far below the current price, with a large accumulation of profitable positions.
Short positions hold a value of $5.043 billion, with margin at $822 million, about 6.13x leverage. This shows shorts are adding positions against the trend, and with sufficient margin, they are holding strong.
The longs are also in a difficult spot, winning on paper but continuously bleeding, feeling somewhat stuck.
Although longs have an unrealized profit of $368 million, they have already paid $41.69 million in funding fees.
That's about one-tenth of the profit.
The space gained by longs over time is narrowing.
If the price can't be pushed up, holding long for a long time risks a much more severe drawdown than shorts once the price can't hold.
Because longs face dual bleeding from price drops and funding fee expenses.
As shown, a certain whale's long position has a cost of 77,089, position value of $146 million, current price 78,460 with unrealized profit of $2.29 million, and funding fees already paid of $1.86 million. This means the price doesn't even need to fall below cost; if it drops near 78,000, this account enters a loss state.
Shorts, as long as margin is sufficient, can use time to gain space.
Additionally, the current potential risk is significant.
Longs have accumulated $368 million in unrealized profits.
Once the upward momentum disappears, some profitable whales may choose to take profits and exit, potentially causing a chain reaction of profit-taking.
This morning's price drop was very likely caused by whales taking profits.
As time goes on, without strong upward momentum, more whales may choose to take profits.
Therefore, after the market rally reaches a certain height and the uptrend starts to weaken, it's time to consider locking in gains.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and not investment advice! $ZORA is getting plenty of attention after its recent move, but the real story may be hiding in the derivatives market. Open interest is now around $47M, while longs still dominate positioning at roughly 58%. That kind of imbalance can become risky if momentum suddenly fades. The interesting part is funding. Despite the bullish sentiment around the coin, funding has turned slightly negative. That suggests the derivatives market isn’t completely convinced that the upside move can continue. For meOracle seen again.
Tectonic is a lending protocol running on Cronos. On August 30, attackers used the low-liquidity token TONIC as collateral, driving its price up about a hundredfold within twenty minutes, then borrowed tens of millions of dollars in stablecoins and ETH. The total loss is estimated between 75 million and 120 million dollars. Validators directly halted the entire chain.
The chain was stopped.
About 6 million dollars were bridged to Ethereum, while over 68 million remained frozen on the chain. The root cause of this kind of attack is not how clever the hackers are, but the oracle pricing being too naive: a token with thin daily trading volume can have its price pumped to borrow real money. In the future, when using lending protocols, first check three things: whether the collateral asset has sufficient liquidity, how many sources the oracle price feed has, and whether there is a circuit breaker mechanism after a risk event. Pausing the entire chain is a lifesaving measure, not a routine operation.90-day correlations are shifting. $BTC is becoming less correlated with Nasdaq tech while moving closer to gold. Meanwhile, $ETH remains strongly tied to tech risk assets. That suggests institutional positioning may be diverging: 🟠 BTC → increasingly viewed as a hedge against debt/liquidity risks 🔵 ETH → still trading more like a growth-oriented risk asset But don’t ignore rates. When Treasury yields surge, even gold and BTC can face pressure. Long term: debt expansion may support BTC. Short tPrivacy acceleration.
Zcash developers released the open-source cryptographic toolkit Zakura Common, reducing private transaction generation time from over three seconds to under two hundred milliseconds, with a speed increase of over fourteen times on mobile and over five times on desktop. The optimizations focus on proof generation, hashing, and verification processes. This chain aims to be a payment rail.
Privacy coins are often seen as gray tools, but speed is the key to their everyday adoption. My judgment: confirmation speed and fees are always the first barriers; privacy is just a bonus. If you want to try, first confirm three things: whether your region is compliant, whether your wallet supports the latest protocol, and whether small test transfers go smoothly. Technology is about data; usage depends on the law.Everyone thought Apple missed out on AI, but it turns out OpenAI is crazily buying Macs. The latest report from The Information shows that OpenAI has already purchased tens of thousands of Mac minis and Mac Studios to enhance learning and train AI Agents that can directly operate computers, and they are still looking for more machines. Anthropic is also renting Mac minis through AWS. 1. AI companies buying Macs is not to replace Nvidia. What really attracts them is Apple Silicon's unified memory architecture. For some local AI, Agents, and large memory tasks, Macs indeed have their own advantages. So this is not "Mac beating GPU," but AI computing is seeing a division of labor: large model training continues to rely on Nvidia, while local AI and Agents may require a different type of machine. 2. The most interesting part is that Apple itself may not have designed this path in advance. In the past, discussions about Apple's AI focused on whether Apple Intelligence could catch up with OpenAI. Now it's the opposite: AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are starting to buy a large amount of Apple hardware. Apple's Mac sales in the most recent quarter grew nearly 29% year-over-year, reaching $10.4 billion, becoming one of the company's fastest-growing product categories. Even more interesting#财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns are tested again Family, the AI earnings relay race enters the second round. Dell goes first on September 1, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on September 2.
NVIDIA has already revealed the trump card of computing power demand. Now the market needs to verify the next level—whether AI investment can spread from chip procurement to servers, network equipment, and enterprise software. Dell is the window for servers and IT infrastructure, Broadcom is a key player in network chips and custom AI chips, and Snowflake represents cloud data platforms.
Dell needs to see if AI server orders can continuously convert into profits, not just contribute revenue without profit. Broadcom needs to answer whether the growth of custom AI chips can offset the slowdown in traditional business, and whether network equipment demand can keep up with computing power expansion. Snowflake needs to see if cloud data demand can form more stable subscription and usage revenue, rather than relying on one-time purchases from large customers.
NVIDIA has set a strong benchmark for AI hardware, but whether the entire chain can sustain this momentum will be revealed this week. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $NVDA $XAU In the last week of August, SPCX fluctuated sideways between $135 and $140. The implied volatility of options dropped from 120 to 57, with both bulls and bears taking a break. No short-term direction has emerged.
On August 26, the new Louisiana base was officially announced, featuring 10 launch pads and a $100 billion investment, aiming for thousands of launches annually, with the earliest first flight in 2029. The scale is ambitious, but the spending is real. Q2 capital expenditure was 18.4 billion, with AI alone burning 15.8 billion, and Starship recovery tests delayed again until the end of the year or early next year. The burn rate hasn't slowed, and with recovery delayed, the market's choice to wait and see is understandable.
Then there's the funding side: the previous rebound was indeed fierce — short positions dropped from 34% to 11%, pulling up 35% to 146 in a week. But after the surge, volume didn't follow, so it naturally consolidated. To push higher in the short term, a new catalyst is needed.
What to watch next? Morgan Stanley set a target price of 300, Citi 200, Bernstein 239. But analysts also said that valuation largely depends on whether Starship milestones can be met. About 700 million shares will be unlocked in September, so the pressure from available shares hasn't been fully absorbed.
At the 135-140 range, both bulls and bears are waiting. Waiting for new progress in Starship test flights, waiting for the next earnings report to prove that the burn rate is producing results. Until a direction emerges, managing position size is key.
Hoping for a successful next Starship test flight this afternoon $SPCX #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 The market view for predictions may be quite close to reality: Bitcoin (BTC) prices will fluctuate significantly in 2026, reaching a high of $92,000 and dropping to a low of $57,700. Recent market interest in Bitcoin has surged, driving the rise of this leading global cryptocurrency, but the market does not expect this rally to continue. According to average forecasts, Kalshi bettors believe Bitcoin will close around $75,000 by the end of this year, which is far below some more optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin's price. Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by year-end, while Bernstein expects it to reach $125,000 or above. So, what are the most likely scenarios? The author believes that the forecast market may make better predictions about Bitcoin's year-end price this time. Here are the reasons: investors currently cannot decide how to handle Bitcoin$BTC. As many investors shift their focus from cryptocurrencies to artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, Bitcoin's value has dropped sharply from its all-time high of over $126,000 at the end of 2025. Who can be blamed for that? Many AI companies have recorded extraordinary revenue and earnings growth, with their stock prices also showing considerable gains. For example, memory chip company Micron Technology's stock price has surged over 700% over the past 12 months, driven by surging demand for data center and device memory#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温
Both Brent and WTI crude oil rose more than 3% intraday today, tightening the market instantly.
The market fears that if the Strait of Hormuz really has an incident, crude oil prices will break $100, and inflation expectations will rise again.
Crypto is actually in a bit of an awkward spot; BTC is holding at 78000, but the strengthening dollar is suppressing it, and safe-haven funds would rather go to gold than to Bitcoin.
I checked, and gold ETFs have seen large inflows these past two days; the direction of safe-haven fund reallocation is very clear.
If crude oil continues to push higher, the Fed’s room to cut interest rates will be squeezed again, which is not good news for risk assets.
So as long as this conflict doesn’t ease, it will be difficult for crypto to strengthen independently; better to stay on the sidelines for now.
$BTC $ETH #原油 #宏观Feeling better
Luckily held on and didn't run away
Opened a $ETH short at 2409, held until around 2380
Unrealized profit surged to over 20 U, now it's back down
Last night almost got shaken out by a pump-and-dump by the dog whales
Today finally the bulls are bearing the pullback
This Ethereum drop is not due to ETF funds fleeing
Spot ETFs still maintain net inflows
The trigger was the failed breakout at 2530
Bullish momentum exhausted
Combined with the tense US-Iran situation pushing oil prices up
US Treasury yields remain high
The market is re-pricing September rate hike expectations
Risk funds collectively withdrawing
Mass stop-losses and forced liquidations on longs triggered in chain
Further amplifying the downtrend
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 After nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, the flow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds has finally shifted. According to public data, on August 28, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of about $201.9 million. This figure itself isn't staggering, but after the previous wave of over $3 billion in funds, it's especially worth savoring. The market's first reaction often leans toward the simple narrative that "funds are fleeing crypto assets." But if we shift our focus a bit and look at the performance of Ethereum and Ripple, we'll find things aren't so pessimistic. This may not be a complete retreat, but more like an internal redeployment. Bitcoin remains the benchmark for the entire crypto world, and that has never changed. It remains the largest, oldest, and most liquid choice among institutional allocations. However, the latest capital data tells us that institutional demand is not monolithic. After nine consecutive trading days of inflows, a negative trading day does not directly indicate a trend reversal. Institutions may be taking profits, rebalancing positions, or actively reducing risk exposure after a strong rebound. But the timing is indeed somewhat delicate. At the same time ETF funds were flowing out, Bitcoin's price had already been rejected after previously touching the $80,000 area and fell back to around $77,000. On one hand, prices repeatedly consolidated at high levels; on the other, ETF funds temporarily stalled. These two factors combined made the upcomingSerenity assesses Celestial's standalone valuation: CPO business potential may reach $6 billion to $10 billion
Serenity posted on social media that if Celestial were to go public as an independent company, leveraging its core position in the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) business among hyperscale cloud providers, its valuation could reach $6 billion to $10 billion, far exceeding the current market's negative view based on losses and minimal revenue.
Celestial is a hard-tech company focused on Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology and has been acquired by Marvell. Serenity's analysis points out that Celestial is expected to generate $500 million in revenue by 2028 (annualized based on Q4), rising to $1 billion in 2029, and is a core participant in hyperscale cloud providers' CPO projects. However, the company's revenue in Q2 2026 is close to zero, and Marvell states its revenue and profit contribution is "not material," with a quarterly loss of about $12.5 million (annualized loss about $50 million). Serenity believes that if only current quarter P/S and losses are considered, Celestial might be viewed as a "worthless Meme stock," but considering customer certification cycles and the potential hyperscale cloud provider CPO project opportunities in 2028, its reasonable valuation should be around 60 🔥 It’s starting again! The Middle East situation is escalating, with talks of reopening the Strait of Hormuz clashing with fresh military strikes and retaliation.
Oil jumped nearly 2.7%, with Brent approaching $90, yet gold and $BTC fell sharply.
Why? The market is no longer simply trading “war = risk-off.” Investors are watching whether higher oil prices could reignite inflation, push yields and the dollar higher, and keep liquidity tight.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh
#BTCGoldCorrelation On the last day of August, Dogecoin fell back to around $0.083, still maintaining about a 20% gain for the month. This round of increase is easily packaged as a sentiment rebound, but the market feels more like a capital test after a long decline: the rebound came quickly, and the selling pressure ahead of $0.10 was not absent.
In the short term, focus first on around $0.081. Holding here indicates that the funds previously entering the market are still willing to support, and the price has a chance to repeatedly test the $0.087 to $0.095 range. If the daily chart breaks down effectively, the market will look for support near $0.074. Contract positions have already contracted from the highs; after the exit of chasing funds, volatility may not end immediately, and might instead become more wearing. Right now, it feels more like a patience battle within a range, not suitable to treat every rebound as a takeoff signal.
On the macro side, the market is waiting for U.S. employment data to set the tone for September's interest rate expectations. Risk assets remain sensitive to easing expectations; weak data will give the crypto market sentiment some breathing room, while strong data will push liquidity concerns back to the forefront. Dogecoin lacks a stable fundamental anchor, so its ups and downs are often more exaggerated than the broader market.
I view it as a highly elastic sentiment position, not taking a single monthly candle as trend confirmation. If it can stabilize on lower volume during a pullback, it indicates that this round of capital still has the patience to continue the story. Whether it can reclaim above $0.09 is more valuable as a reference than a surge in any single hour. If it relies only on hype and short-term leverage, when the heat dissipates, the pullback will be sharp as well $DOGE
(This is only personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Today XMR is strengthening, and many reports say: THORChain v3.20 already supports native cross-chain swaps for XMR, ZEC, BTC, and ETH.
But after checking the official announcement, I found that things are not moving as fast as the headlines suggest.
v3.20 has indeed integrated the relevant technical framework, but official trading for XMR and ZEC is not yet open. To monitor network stability, the new feature is expected to be paused for one to two weeks before gradually going live.
This is a very typical scene in the crypto space:
The project team says "coming soon," the media writes "already launched," and the market prices in future expectations ahead of time.
This doesn't mean the positive news is false; it's just that "coded in," "officially enabled," and "actually used by people" are three completely different stages.
For ordinary users, the most important thing is not to rush just because they see the words "native cross-chain," but to wait until the feature is live and then check:
Is there enough liquidity?
Is the slippage high for large swaps?
Are the nodes running stably?
What is the actual trading volume?
Cross-chain support without liquidity is more like a technical demo; only when users are truly willing to use it does it become a business.
Crypto prices often run ahead of the product.
Headlines create FOMO, details tell you where the risks lie. Today's market backbone is Wash. The Jackson Hole annual meeting has concluded, and the new chairman immediately set a hawkish tone, stating that inflation remains above target and the Federal Reserve still has work to do. The responsibility for the persistently high inflation over the past approximately 65 months lies entirely with the central bank. Once these words came out, the market immediately priced them in: spot gold fell more than $120 in one day, rate hike bets were reignited, Goldman Sachs verbally expressed disbelief in a September rate hike, while JPMorgan added that it still depends on August's nonfarm payrolls and CPI, leaving the suspense for next week.
A more direct blow to the crypto circle is that the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which had lasted for 9 consecutive days, was ended, with a net outflow of $202 million yesterday. The enthusiasm accumulated over the previous 9 days suddenly deflated. On one side, the Federal Reserve's hawkish pressure looms; on the other, ETF funds are shifting. Bitcoin dropped from above 80,000 down to 78,520, a level that coincides with the technical point where BTC twice tested the 50-week moving average but retreated. August recorded the strongest monthly performance in nine years, but the result is a test at the start of September, a script very much like the saying: "When the moon is full, it wanes; when the water is full, it overflows."
However, this round of decline is not without supporting logic. Last week's foundation remains: Bitcoin spot ETFs had a total net inflow of $924 million last week, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $938 million. Ethereum spot ETFs also had a net inflow of $824 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA leading at $567 million. Institutional money is not retreating; it is profit-taking and observing.$XRP pullback after a strong rally, short-term can still lean bullish
XRP current price $1.37, 24H -1%, has pulled back from about $1.05 in mid-August to $1.67, now undergoing high-level digestion.
Moreover, funds have not significantly withdrawn: as of August 28, XRP ETF weekly net inflow was $110 million, a new high for 2026; but contract OI recently fell from about $3.36B to $3.17B, indicating leverage is cooling down.
This combination can continue to lean bullish: spot funds remain, contract leverage is retreating, representing a healthy pullback after a rise, not a trend reversal. BTC is currently repeatedly pressured around $78K, with the market risk appetite cautious, so XRP accelerating directly again is not that easy.
Short-term strategy: do not chase, wait for the pullback to catch. $1.34–1.35 is the first support, $1.28–1.30 is strong support/bull-bear boundary; if it reclaims $1.43, target $1.50 first, a volume breakout above $1.50 then looks at $1.65–1.70.
If $1.28 breaks, and OI quickly increases again, ETF inflows weaken, the current bullish view is invalidated. Otherwise, this wave looks more like deleveraging, a drop is actually more comfortable than chasing $1.4.The biggest shock of the week hasn't been announced yet 😅
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and finally Friday's nonfarm payrolls, data keeps coming one after another. Sigh, the market probably won't calm down this week.
Walsh has already put "inflation priority" on the table. As long as employment doesn't show obvious weakness, the hawks have reason to stay tough; conversely, if the nonfarm payrolls really surprise on the downside again, the scary rate hike expectations from a few days ago might have to be pulled back.
So $BTC tossing around near $80,000 these days doesn't surprise me at all. Breakouts before the data lands are really hard to tell if they're genuine or not.$BTC fell below 78,000, $ETH lost 2,500, and $SOL also dropped over 3%—the market is panicking again.
It just bounced back to 79,000 for less than two days before all gains were wiped out by negative news. After Wash turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped directly from 35% to 57%-60%. PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2% target for 65 consecutive months—Wash said inflation isn't coming down, so the job isn't done yet. #EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Wash's policy stance is being tested
And it's not over yet: Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index, Thursday's ISM Services Prices Paid Index, and Friday's August Nonfarm Payrolls—if any come out high, rate hike expectations will surge again. Wash has redefined the rules: in the past, weak employment meant lower rate hike expectations; now inflation is the core variable, and as long as employment doesn't deteriorate significantly, rate hikes are unstoppable.
On top of that, the US-Iran military conflict has escalated, oil prices have risen, and risk assets are being crushed. #USIranMilitaryConfrontationEscalates, Oil Supply Risk Heats Up
$BTC is hovering between 77,000-78,000, $ETH is stuck at 2,430, and $SOL is falling the hardest. All three are under pressure. If $BTC can't hold the 76,000-77,000 support zone, it may look for a bottom at 73,000-75,000. $ETH is weaker, with 2,400 as the critical point.
People call it a bull market when it rebounds and a bear market when it falls—can you have some independent judgment? #TradingVoice: Your Experience Deserves to Be Heard Helium's SEC settlement took place in April 2025, with a fine of $200,000. HNT's 170% surge occurred on the last weekend of August 2026. There was a sixteen-month gap in between. Why not seventeen months, nor fifteen months? Asking this question changes the framework of the whole matter. The original article thoroughly analyzes "short squeeze or real demand"—short liquidations of 1.6 million, open interest surged 197.6%, financing rates plunged to -10%. The conclusion is clear: fireworks ignited by leverage, not sunrises ignited by fundamentals. But this conclusion is too clean. It explains "what drives this rally," but avoids an even more uncomfortable question: Who is the one releasing this firework, and who must watch it rise to short? From "short squeeze" to "time lag" On Sunday, August 31, the eve of Labor Day in the U.S., liquidity in traditional markets is being drained. This is a deliberately chosen time window. Why act on the weekend before Labor Day? Because mainstream financial media are on vacation, institutional trading desks are downsizing, and regulatory attention is weakest. For a stock that only needs $1.6 million in short liquidations to drive a 170% increase, a liquidity vacuum is the best leverage. HNT's daily trading volume reached $248 million, exceeding its own market capitalization. This figure is more accurate: only a tiny amount of capital is needed to create a "liquidity illusion" on a small-cap stock. And that "Texas Wi-Fi deployment project" is the only thing considered the trigger