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Nonfarm payroll week is here! Whether there will be a rate hike in September depends on this tremor
After Warsh's speech, the probability of a September rate hike surged to 57%, gold plummeted, and BTC briefly fell below 77000. This week's employment data will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September.
The market expects nonfarm payrolls to be between 55,000 and 80,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. July's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months were revised down by a total of 103,000, showing a clear cooling trend in employment.
If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike will rise again, and BTC will test 76000 again; if it falls short of expectations, the negative factors will be exhausted, and BTC will rebound to 78000-79000.
My judgment: the data is very likely not to look good. If nonfarm payrolls weaken again, rate hike expectations will fall, and BTC will instead see a rebound.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 DefiLlama data shows that Binance had a net inflow of $15.6 billion in the past month.
What does this mean? Bybit's total assets are only $16 billion, and Robinhood's are about $14.3 billion. In other words, Binance's monthly capital increase is already close to Bybit's entire holdings and even exceeds Robinhood's total assets.
During the same period, OKX had a monthly inflow of about $1.7 billion, Bybit about $1.9 billion, and Binance's inflow is basically 8 to 9 times theirs.
Besides market conditions and the leading effect, I think there is another very important change: Binance is vigorously expanding into TradFi. From gold and silver to popular U.S. stocks, ETFs, tokenized stocks, and Pre-IPO targets, more and more traditional assets are being brought into Binance.
Previously, after making money in crypto, funds had to be transferred to brokers to buy stocks; now crypto, gold, U.S. stocks, and ETFs can all be managed within a single account. $BTC is now facing a very real wall: above $80,000, selling pressure is clearly increasing; meanwhile, the macro environment is not as favorable as it was recently.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's recent hawkish remarks have significantly heated up market bets on a rate hike in September, currently around 60%. At the same time, the latest U.S. employment data is about to be released, and how inflation and employment data move next will directly affect expectations for the Fed's policy in September.
This also explains why the recent movements of BTC and gold have become increasingly interesting.
Both are being used by funds as hedges against currency, inflation, and macro risks, but BTC's volatility is clearly much greater. Gold still rose over 10% in August, while BTC quickly entered a consolidation phase after testing $80,000.
My view is that the worst thing now is to get excited and chase after a break above $80,000, then immediately turn bearish when it falls back to $78,000.
$80,000 has become a very critical short-term level.
If it can hold and continue to see volume growth, it indicates that this breakout has fund support; if it cannot hold and even falls below around $77,000, then this rally may risk turning into a deeper correction.
Especially keep an eye on ETF funds.
Because the previous rally was not driven solely by retail sentiment; institutional funds did participate. But now the continuous inflows have been interrupted, indicating a divergence in funds.
So I am now more inclined to define BTC as "high-level consolidation within an uptrend" rather than directly judging the bull market to be over.
What really matters next is not whether BTC rises 500 or falls 1000 today, but whether $80,000 can truly turn from a resistance level into a support level.
If it holds, there is still room to move higher; if it doesn't, then don't rush to prove you were right—wait for the price to show the direction first.
Having been involved with BTC for many years, I increasingly feel that the biggest test at high levels is not judgment ability, but patience.
$ETH $SOL
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Fundamental analysis of $0G and whether it has the suspicion and capability of high-level manipulation like $LAB and $BEAT? What is its current liquidity?
From a fundamental perspective, 0G belongs to the AI sector with high heat, has an actual mainnet and ecosystem development, is not a pure Meme coin, and is a high-valuation AI infrastructure project. Its previous historical high was $7.31, currently around $0.2, having dropped more than 97%, which also indicates that large capital whales have already massively withdrawn! The current token distribution is 22% team, 22% institutional investors, 28% ecosystem, 15% node rewards, and 13% community. This indicates that its manipulation level is not particularly severe! However, more than 67% of tokens are still locked, with unlocking continuing until 2029 and monthly unlocking plans. So, one needs to be cautious when trading. The recent rise is due to large capital inflows. Don't be greedy for small profits and end up as a bag holder.
Final OG summary: There is a real project, institutional chips, and long-term unlocking pressure. It is also a project seriously trapped in the AI sector rather than a pure pump-and-dump scheme. $BTC fell below 78,000, $ETH lost 2,500, and $SOL also dropped over 3%—the market is panicking again.
It just bounced back to 79,000 for less than two days before all gains were wiped out by negative news. After Wash turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped directly from 35% to 57%-60%. PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2% target for 65 consecutive months—Wash said inflation isn't coming down, so the job isn't done yet. #EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Wash's policy stance is being tested
And it's not over yet: Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index, Thursday's ISM Services Prices Paid Index, and Friday's August Nonfarm Payrolls—if any come out high, rate hike expectations will surge again. Wash has redefined the rules: in the past, weak employment meant lower rate hike expectations; now inflation is the core variable, and as long as employment doesn't deteriorate significantly, rate hikes are unstoppable.
On top of that, the US-Iran military conflict has escalated, oil prices have risen, and risk assets are being crushed. #USIranMilitaryConfrontationEscalates, Oil Supply Risk Heats Up
$BTC is hovering between 77,000-78,000, $ETH is stuck at 2,430, and $SOL is falling the hardest. All three are under pressure. If $BTC can't hold the 76,000-77,000 support zone, it may look for a bottom at 73,000-75,000. $ETH is weaker, with 2,400 as the critical point.
People call it a bull market when it rebounds and a bear market when it falls—can you have some independent judgment? #TradingVoice: Your Experience Deserves to Be Heard On August 27, the US spot crypto ETFs saw comprehensive capital inflows: 🟠 $BTC: +$235.6 million 🔵 $ETH: +$225.8 million 🟣 $SOL: +$56.1 million ⚫ $XRP: +$18.5 million 🟢 $HYPE: +$24.4 million The total net inflow for the day was about $560 million, clearly showing a multi-asset allocation trend. But on August 28, the trend suddenly changed: 📉 $BTC ETF: -$201.9 million 📈 $ETH ETF: +$102.1 million 📈 $SOL ETF: +$17.3 million 📈 $XRP ETF: +$18 million 📈 $HYPE ETF: +$4.5 million BTC ended a continuous 9-day inflow streak totaling about $3 billion, while ETH, SOL, and XRP still received capital support. This does not necessarily mean institutions are "abandoning BTC," but rather that funds are starting to seek new growth opportunities. If this trend continues, ETF capital flows may become an early signal of the next rotation from BTC → ETH → high Beta assets like SOL/XRP.👀 What really matters now is not "whether money is leaving the crypto market," but: Where is the money flowing? 💰 #BTC #ETH #SOL #XRP #HYPE #CryptoETF #ETFFlows #IThere is a detail in the current crypto market that is easily overlooked: whether $BTC rises or not is one thing, but whether funds have started to leave $BTC is another. — "Price fluctuations" and "whether funds are leaving $BTC" are actually two different matters — this is indeed very critical, as it points to a deeper narrative in the market. Recent data precisely presents this complex picture of both divergence and high concentration.
🔍 Signs: Are funds really leaving Bitcoin?
· Short-term outflow signal: Last Friday (August 28), the Bitcoin spot $ETF ended a continuous 9-day net inflow, recording a net outflow of $202 million. Some large funds (whales) also showed unusual activity by transferring BTC into exchanges, which is often seen as a potential selling pressure signal.
· Annual perspective is more complex: Even though the monthly net inflow of Bitcoin spot $ETF in August exceeded $3 billion, looking at the whole year of 2026, $ETF reserves still decreased by nearly 92,000 $BTC, failing to completely reverse the selling trend since the beginning of the year.
🏦 Where are the funds really "flowing to"?
Interestingly, these "outflow" funds have not dispersed but are highly concentrated in core assets:
· Institutions only love "big players": As of the end of August, crypto funds saw a weekly net inflow as high as $3.2 billion, but 81% of that flowed into Bitcoin and Ethereum $ETFs. Institutions like Grayscale have even directly removed $ETF plans for altcoins such as Cardano, focusing only on top assets.
· The altcoin season is far from arriving: Currently, Bitcoin's market dominance is as high as 56.5%, and under fearful sentiment (panic index 29), funds still only dare to seek refuge in $BTC, without starting large-scale altcoin rotation.
💎 Summary
"Funds leaving $BTC" and "funds leaving the crypto market" are two different things. The truth now is: some short-term funds are indeed flowing out of $BTC to take profits, but a larger portion of institutional funds is re-entering the market centered on $BTC and $ETH.
This pattern of "internal turnover with overall concentration" indicates the market is at a critical crossroads. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Mainstream coins' daily RSI collectively surged into the overbought zone, but the funding rates remain cold—price and leverage are moving in opposite directions. As of 19:30 data: BTC at 78,187 USDT (24h +0.67%), daily RSI 71.7; SOL is stronger, +1.55% at 105.15, RSI surged to 74.8. Meanwhile, BTC funding rate is only 0.0094%, and SOL is even -0.0027%. Plain translation: prices are hot, leverage is not. Bulls are not adding leverage to squeeze in, indicating this rebound is more spot-driven rather than inflated by leveraged funds. Personal judgment: chasing highs in the overbought zone has poor cost-effectiveness, but the "overbought + cold funding rate" combination historically tends to lead to sideways consolidation rather than a direct waterfall drop. In the short term, BTC remains strong above 77,500 (24h low); breaking below would indicate the start of overbought correction, and I would admit being wrong. If you hold positions, will you reduce when RSI is overbought or continue holding? > Personal views and data records, not investment advice. The market carries risks; decisions should be made cautiously. #BTC# #SOL# #MarketAnalysis#$ZEC is experiencing intense volatility above $830 after surpassing $700, closely approaching the $880 resistance level left from 2018, with a high concentration of short positions.
The spot price continues to digest floating chips amid rapid rallies, while derivatives shorts cluster bets around $834, yet the market has not seen the expected deep pullback.
Institutional allocations are continuously absorbing chips from transparent address pools, while large funds are moving into shielded pools for accumulation, causing a passive contraction in the exchange's circulating spot supply.
The physical withdrawal of liquidity from transparent pools combined with the concentrated buildup of derivatives shorts overlaps, turning the spot selling pressure gap directly into potential short squeeze momentum.
If buying power pushes the price to break through $880 with volume, short stop-losses will accelerate liquidity siphoning, and the price will enter a resistance vacuum zone.
If profit-taking concentrates before the $880 level and buying support breaks, once the price falls below the $700 support, the squeeze logic will quickly collapse.
When shielded pool accumulation and institutional chip absorption stall, and spot liquidity flows back to exchanges, the current supply-demand imbalance judgment will be falsified.
The most critical variable in the coming days is the exchange rate between spot trading volume and short covering before the $880 level.
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强$SPCX has fundamental support, but there is significant short-term selling pressure.
Has everyone stopped playing with rockets recently? What are you all playing now? Rockets are getting less and less attention. Every time it rebounds to a key resistance, it quickly gets pushed down; when it falls to support, it quickly rebounds. The trading range is quite limited!
SpaceX has made progress in its aerospace business recently, successfully launching NASA's Roman Space Telescope over the weekend. The company is also continuing to invest in AI infrastructure and has even started producing gas turbine components itself, indicating the fundamental story is still intact.
However, the biggest short-term trouble remains large-scale unlocking and high valuation. A large number of shares will continue to enter circulation, with about 378 million shares about to be unlocked soon. Meanwhile, the market remains sensitive to SPCX's current valuation. After a big rise earlier, funds are more likely to take profits on rebounds.
Personal trading advice: To truly achieve a sustained upward move, the unlocking pressure needs to be gradually digested. Therefore, I still favor the strategy of shorting on rebounds. Short at 143 on the rebound, with a target near 139. "0G single-day +35% rate but -0.498%: Shorts are fueling the longs" A coin that rose 35%, yet shorts are lining up to pay interest. As of 19:30 data: 0G perpetual price up 35.05% in one day, open interest surged 476.3% to 3.43 million, but funding rate deeply negative at -0.498%. Plain translation: The price keeps rising, but shorts are adding positions against the trend, paying about 0.5% position fee every 8 hours. Personal judgment: This is a typical crowded short structure. As long as the price holds more than half of today's gains, short stop-loss and funding cost will force them to cover, making a short squeeze very likely not over; conversely, if it falls back to the starting point, it means the pumping funds have exited, and these shorts are the smart money. Invalid condition: If the price gives back all gains and the funding rate turns positive, the structural judgment is void. Are you witnessing the eve of a short squeeze or the end of distribution? > Personal views and data records, not investment advice. The market has risks, decisions should be cautious. #0G# #DataAnalysis# #MarketAnalysis##财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take the baton, AI returns put to the test again NVIDIA just finished reporting, this week it's Broadcom and Dell's turn—Dell reports earnings after market close on Tuesday, Broadcom follows after market close on Wednesday.
The big picture: AI infrastructure spending is still pouring in heavily, but the market is no longer satisfied with the "AI story" alone; it wants to see real cash returns. Dell is focused on AI server orders and backlog, while Broadcom's situation is even more critical—the market expects its AI semiconductor revenue to reach $15.2 billion, while the company's previous Q3 guidance was $16 billion. Whether it can meet the target and whether the 2027 AI revenue goal of $100 billion will be raised is more important than the revenue itself.
Don't forget that after Broadcom's last quarter earnings, its AI chip outlook of "only" $56 billion, which fell short of the market's "mythical" expectations, caused its stock to plunge after hours. Will this week's script repeat? Simply put, AI hardware stocks have entered a phase of "made by expectations, broken by expectations"—the numbers themselves don't matter; what matters is whether they exceed those overly inflated expectations. Let's wait and see. #BTC high volatility, increased correlation with gold #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK $NVDA $SNDK $BTC Fell from the current high near $81.4K to the $77.5K level, a short-term pullback close to 5%, with profit-taking at high levels beginning to be realized and market sentiment clearly cooling. But this cannot yet be simply interpreted as a trend reversal; several key variables are worth watching: (1) Institutional funds are cooling down. The US spot BTC ETF had net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, attracting over $3 billion, but on August 28, it suddenly turned to about $201.9M in net outflow, showing a clear easing of institutional buying this round. More notably, capital is not fully withdrawing; there is still significant asset rotation within the crypto market, with ETH and other products continuing to see inflows recently. (2) The $77K area remains a bull-bear lifeline BTC has now returned to the $77K–$78K range. In the short term, watch whether $76.5K–$77K can hold; If this line is breached, the next important line of defense could be around $75K. Conversely, if BTC climbs back above $79K–$80K, it would indicate that the pullback pressure has clearly eased. (3) Macro pressure is regaining dominance Recently, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting have renewed market expectations for policy tightening in September. A stronger dollar and persistently high US Treasury yields have also started to suppress risk assets, including BTC and gold. So this current decline looks more like: profit-taking at high levels + weakening ETF funds + leveraged positionsand added today's macro news. BTC is currently back around $78,000, while gold has fallen to around $4,440 per ounce. The market is digesting Warsh's hawkish stance, a stronger dollar, and changes in geopolitical dynamics. #BTC High-level volatility intensifies, gold pulls back in tandem, and the market enters a repricing phase. After surging to around $81,000, Bitcoin cooled down quickly and has now fallen back to around $78,000, with bulls and bears beginning to repeatedly battle around key levels. From the market perspective, profit-taking from the previous rapid rise is being released, but BTC has not yet shown a clear breakout. Since August, Bitcoin has still risen about 24%, marking one of the strongest August performances since 2017. Therefore, the current pullback feels more like a high-level digestion rather than a complete trend reversal. 📌 On the news front, the market is mainly affected by three factors: 🔴 Fed hawkish expectations flare up again. After Jackson Hole's speech, the market raised expectations for the Fed's tight policy again. The US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened, putting short-term pressure on non-yielding assets like BTC and gold. This was also a key catalyst for BTC's rapid pullback from above $81,000. 🟡 ETF funding heat cools down. US spot BTC ETFs had seen inflows for several consecutive days, but on August 28, there was a sudden net outflow of about $202 million, ending the streak of inflows. However, from a broader perspective, ETF funds have remained relatively aggressive recently$BTC | THE SUPPLY-SIDE BATTLE
Bitcoin gained roughly 24% in August, its strongest August since 2017, while spot ETFs attracted about $1.92B in one week.
The deeper thesis:$BTC
BTC is entering a market where demand is becoming more structural — but the real question is how much supply long-term holders are willing to release.
That’s where the next repricing gets decided. 🔥$BTC
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
I will hold a position long-term, but the conditions are quite strict.
Holding a position long-term means I have to be able to sleep well at night.
What I value most is whether this thing will still be around in three years and whether it has the ability to continuously generate value.
I will hold $BTC because it has proven it can't die, and after the ETF launch, it is being revalued as "digital gold." I will also hold $ETH, as there are hundreds of billions in DeFi and stablecoins running on-chain; as long as the activity continues, it has value support.
$OKB is also part of my long-term holdings. Not because it is a platform token, but because it is transforming from an exchange point system into a core asset of the public chain. The 21 million hard cap, X Layer's gas consumption, and ICE's endorsement—these logics combined support its scarcity and utility. Moreover, OKX is indeed continuously expanding its business; more stock assets are being added on X Layer, trading activity is increasing, and naturally, the usage of OKB is rising.
I can't hold many altcoins because I can't be sure if they will still exist in three years. Long-term investing is about the "probability of survival," not "how fast it grows." Surviving is more important than growing fast.Bitcoin quantum-resistant transaction implemented!
On August 27, StarkWare completed the first quantum-resistant transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet, transferring 3.1 BTC. The key point is that it did not modify the existing consensus rules but used the QSB scheme to achieve quantum-resistant signature verification. Many people's first reaction is that the quantum computing threat is still far off, so why bother with this now?
Bitcoin as an asset has a long accumulation period. Addresses that seem secure today may not be safe in ten or twenty years, and no one can guarantee that. Waiting until quantum computing becomes a real threat before taking action might be too late. Therefore, the real value of this event is not the 3.1 BTC transferred but that it proves the Bitcoin mainnet can test quantum-resistant transaction paths without changing the existing consensus.
Of course, large-scale migration is still far away. Efficiency, transaction size, wallet compatibility, miner support, and how users migrate are all practical issues. First, someone verifies feasibility, then the community decides whether to adopt it fully. This approach is more reliable than suddenly implementing a major upgrade.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC is holding up while $ETH and $SOL weaken, suggesting liquidity is favoring BTC over higher-beta assets.
At ~$78.7K, BTC looks more like a macro hedge than the start of a broad crypto rally.
BTC-gold correlation, US-Iran tensions, and oil risks keep inflation uncertainty elevated.
For now, I see selective BTC strength—not a full return of risk appetite.
Just my view, not financial advice.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults #LaborMarketTestsWalsh Regarding token unlocks, I'm actually less worried about the $9.65 million worth of SUI, but I pay more attention to the $6.87 million worth of EIGEN.
In the first week of September, SUI, EIGEN, and ENA combined unlocked over $20 million.
The largest single amount is SUI, 13.53 million tokens, valued at about $9.65 million, but this only accounts for 0.33% of the current circulating supply.
ENA looks larger, with 40.63 million tokens, but it actually only accounts for 0.46% of circulation.
The truly notable one is EIGEN.
36.82 million tokens, valued at only $6.87 million, yet this represents 5.48% of the current circulating supply.
I also checked data from previous months, and this 36.82 million EIGEN has appeared consecutively.
In July, the same 36.82 million tokens were worth about $7.63 million, now only worth $6.87 million.
No tokens have been reduced, they just keep losing value.
Of course, we can't say that EIGEN's decline is definitely caused by the unlock just based on these two numbers.
But this kind of steady new supply, if there isn't enough new demand to absorb it, is indeed more worth watching than a single "large unlock."
So now when I look at unlock news, my first glance is no longer "how many millions of dollars."
I first look at what percentage of circulation it represents, then who receives the tokens, and finally whether the market can absorb it.
$SUI $EIGEN The highlight for XLM these days is still the resurgence of the cross-border payment narrative. SWIFT is advancing blockchain ledger technology, and traditional finance is beginning to test on-chain real-time settlement, which has brought renewed market attention to payment infrastructure projects like Stellar. However, from the market performance, after XLM surged, it did not continue with sustained volume growth, indicating that funds are mostly engaging in short-term speculation driven by news. Going forward, the focus will be on on-chain transfer activity, partnership progress, and whether the overall market can continue to provide room for growth for established public chains. $XLM $ZEC Logic behind ZEC price appreciation
1. Grayscale ETF capital
Regulatory mandates require all ZEC held for the ETF to reside in auditable transparent t‑addresses. The fund can only source tokens from the transparent pool and cannot move assets into the shielded pool at all.
Institutions purchase ZEC for price exposure with no demand for privacy. They absorb tokens from exchanges and transparent‑address holders, draining tradable liquidity out of the transparent pool.
2. High‑net‑worth investors for intergenerational wealth transfer
After acquisition, high‑net‑worth individuals execute t‑to‑z shielding to move ZEC into cold storage within the Ironwood shielded pool. Their objective is discreet multi‑generational wealth preservation, effectively avoiding a potential 40 % estate‑tax hit.
This capital also absorbs supply from exchanges and the transparent pool. Once tokens enter the shielded pool, they are removed from the tradable floating supply.#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
For the crypto community, this is positive news for altcoins, but it is not an unconditional bull market signal.
SOL represents a high-performance public chain ecosystem, AVAX represents modular/customizable blockchain direction, and LINK leans more towards oracle and on-chain data infrastructure. The three assets chosen by 嘉信 actually reveal the traditional financial approach to selecting altcoins: not pursuing quantity, but looking for relatively mature projects with clear narratives and infrastructure attributes. After the announcement, SOL, LINK, and AVAX all rose, with SOL showing the strongest reaction. (FXStreet) But note, "gaining trading access" ≠ "funds will definitely flow in." The real test will be the trading volume after listing, institutional allocation, and whether ETF/fund products can continue to expand. For BTC, this is also a positive signal, because if traditional funds start to spread from BTC and ETH to more crypto assets, the market's capital structure may evolve from "Bitcoin institutionalization" to "institutionalization of the entire crypto market."₿➡️🏦#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
This is not just about "listing coins," but about traditional finance expanding the gateway to altcoins.
Charles Schwab plans to add SOL, AVAX, and LINK to Schwab Crypto in the coming months, following the launch of BTC and ETH spot trading in May this year, further integrating mainstream altcoins into the traditional brokerage system. Schwab has about 39.9 million active brokerage accounts and over $13 trillion in client assets, meaning SOL, AVAX, and LINK are entering the vast traditional investment account system more directly for the first time. (Cryptowave) What truly deserves attention here is not "how much buying Schwab will bring," but that Wall Street's definition of crypto assets is gradually expanding from BTC and ETH to a broader range of public chains and infrastructure assets. $ETH was the MVP of August, but why can't it hold above 2500?
$ETH rose over 30% in the month, outperforming BTC's 25%.
But now it's reported at 2420, and the 2500 level has been lost and regained for the third time. Every time it pushes up, it gets hammered; the resistance and profit-taking above 2500 are too heavy.
On-chain data is healthy: the number of whale addresses has risen from 4750 at the June low to 4850, and the 819 insider whale still holds over 48.85 million contracts. August's derivatives trading volume surged 370%, with shorts liquidated for 1.1 billion.
The problem is weak macro conditions. On the day of the hawkish Fed, ETH dropped 1.6%, and ETF daily inflows are only tens of millions, insufficient to break through the dense 2500 zone.
Technically: 2400 is the lifeline; if it holds, expect sideways movement at high levels; if it breaks, look to 2300. A breakthrough and hold above 2500 targets the 2600 supply zone.
Fundamentals (Layer2, RWA, staking) remain unchanged; what has changed is risk appetite. The day macro conditions improve is the day ETH takes off. Until then, selling high and buying low is more profitable than holding tight.#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温
BTC holding at $78,000 actually indicates the market is waiting for the next move.
Currently, BTC is still fluctuating around $78,000 and has not experienced a runaway drop due to the oil price shock. (TradingView) This means the market is watching whether the oil price increase is just a short-term geopolitical premium or will turn into sustained inflation and liquidity shocks. If the conflict escalates further and the Strait of Hormuz experiences a substantial supply disruption, causing oil prices to continue rising, then the main storyline could be “Oil price ↑ → Inflation ↑ → Fed more hawkish → USD/US Treasury yields ↑ → BTC under pressure.” Conversely, if the supply disruption is not sustained and the oil price risk premium quickly falls back, BTC might instead resume trading based on ETF funds, liquidity, and risk appetite. So right now, what the crypto community really needs to watch is not where the missiles are flying, but whether oil prices will ultimately fly into the Fed’s policy function. 🛢️In the past couple of days, I discussed the macroeconomic situation with a friend and also talked about our recent trading experiences in different markets, giving each other some advice.
My friend has faced a 15% loss in the large A-share market over the past few months. As everyone knows, the global tech crash in July caused a deep correction in the entire large A-share market, with many small-cap tech stocks being severely hit. He said that since he started trading stocks, he has been continuously learning and absorbing external information to make his trades seem more justified. Over the past five years, there were some years with very high returns, but overall, the annualized return is less than 3%. I joked that if you’re not losing, you’re already better than most people in this market.
He said that the stocks his mother bought rose by 150% over the same period, and she basically didn’t make any trades. Meanwhile, my friend tried almost every method, including chasing boards and martingale strategies.
This actually reflects that in the capital market, even in the large A-share market, only patient capital can truly make money. In fact, if you buy a company with a low price-to-earnings ratio (PE) and hold it for more than three years, a 50% return is quite easy. But most people lack patience; they become puppets of trading, feeling the need to hold positions every day as if that brings peace of mind.
On the other hand, my friend’s mother is a truly mature trader—she exits when the market is noisy and crowded, and buys when no one is paying attention. If you understand this principle, I think you have truly entered the realm of investing or trading.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC | THE SUPPLY-SIDE BATTLE
Bitcoin gained roughly 24% in August, its strongest August since 2017, while spot ETFs attracted about $1.92B in one week.
The deeper thesis:$BTC
BTC is entering a market where demand is becoming more structural — but the real question is how much supply long-term holders are willing to release.
That’s where the next repricing gets decided. 🔥$BTC
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温
The risk of war is transmitting to the crypto space through oil prices.
The US-Iran military conflict has escalated again. After the US attacked targets near Iran's Larak Island, Iran launched retaliatory actions, raising market concerns once more about shipping and crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude briefly surpassed $90, with geopolitical risk premiums on oil prices clearly rising. (Al Jazeera) For BTC, the real concern is not the word "war" itself, but whether rising oil prices can evolve into a sustained inflation shock. If energy prices continue to rise, US inflation expectations may rebound, compressing the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts and even further strengthening expectations for rate hikes. The market has now priced in about a 60% chance of a rate hike in September, making BTC more susceptible to suppression from tightening US dollar liquidity. UNI has risen to $5.1, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: UNI has surged fiercely, but you feel a bit uneasy.
It more than doubled in 3 months, and rose 13%-18% in the past 7 days. Market cap bounced back to 3.18 billion, ranking 26th. 24-hour spot + futures trading volume nearly hit 2 billion, real cash flow.
But after hitting 5.47 yesterday, it was hammered back down, leaving a long upper shadow on the daily chart.
First thing: tokenomics have been rewritten, UNI is no longer a "useless governance token."
In December 2025, UNIfication will pass: the treasury will burn 100 million UNI at once, activate the protocol fee switch, and use part of the trading fees to buy UNI on the market and burn it again.
As of August 31, about 110 million UNI have been burned, worth $630 million. On August 21 alone, 150,000 UNI / $590,000 were burned, a new phase high.
UNI has transformed from a pure governance token into a "deflationary asset linked to protocol revenue."
Second thing: Robinhood Chain has brought in TradFi traffic.
After the mainnet launch in July, Uniswap became the public AMM on this chain. Stock tokens daily trading volume once reached $130 million, a 10x increase in one month, with cumulative volume reaching the billion level. Robinhood Chain’s contribution to protocol fees and burns has significantly increased—recently, this chain accounts for nearly half of the burns.
UNI has for the first time received traffic from traditional finance, not just internal crypto circle turnover.
Third thing: whales are moving positions, chips are leaving exchanges.
Recently, dormant wallets have withdrawn tokens, Upbit/Binance hot wallets have transferred to cold wallets/market maker addresses. This signals "chips leaving exchanges," and combined with the burn mechanism, the market interprets this as supply contraction.
But note: part of this narrative has already been priced in around 5.4.
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
UNIfication passes, protocol fee buybacks and burns, deflation narrative starts
Robinhood Chain integrates stock tokens, real TradFi traffic lands
Cumulative burn of 110 million / $630 million, supply keeps shrinking
Rebounded from 2.31, trend has turned bullish
On the other side:
Daily RSI 70-71 overbought, short-term overheated
Yesterday’s 5.47 long upper shadow, supply pressure obvious
September FOMC rate hike risk, macro tightening
If BTC falls below 76,000, UNI will struggle to stand alone
Resistance above: 5.20 → 5.45-5.50 (yesterday’s supply) → 5.65-5.80 → 6.00-6.11
Support below: 5.00 → 4.85-4.95 (breakout platform) → 4.64-4.70 (structural defense)
Trading strategy
For those already long:
Reduce 30%-40% of floating profit/loss, lower position to "won’t hurt if stopped out." Take profit in steps: reduce more at 5.45-5.50; if it holds above 5.50, look to 5.80/6.10. Move stop loss up to 4.84.
For those with no position wanting to go long:
Wait for a pullback to 4.86-5.00, preferably a 4h candle with a lower shadow or volume-supported bottoming. Stop loss below 4.62, targets 5.28 → 5.48 → 5.80. Risk-reward ratio acceptable.
Only chase if daily close holds above 5.50 and futures funding rate doesn’t spike positive crazily. Stop loss 5.28, targets 5.80/6.10.
For those wanting to short:
Can do tactical shorts, not faith shorts. Only short if resistance at 5.45-5.50 holds, with clear upper shadow and volume contraction on 4h. Stop loss above 5.58, targets only 5.00/4.86.
Watch two variables: whether BTC breaks below 76,000, and whether UNI daily burns/Robinhood stock token volume cools significantly.
This UNI turnaround is the first in DeFi history where "the protocol starts making money to buy back."
99% of people still view UNI with the old "governance token has no value" lens, but the protocol has already burned $630 million.
What is your UNI cost?
Can it reach 6 this round?
$BTC $ETH $UNI The US spot $BTC ETF saw a capital shift on August 28, with a single-day net outflow of about $202 million, ending a previous streak of 9 consecutive trading days of net inflows. However, at the same time, the Ethereum ETF continued to attract strong capital inflows, showing a clear divergence in market fund preferences.
Data shows that the Bitcoin ETF had accumulated net inflows of about $2.8 billion over the previous 8 consecutive trading days, during which $BTC once approached $80,000. After this outflow, its cumulative net inflow is about $55.1 billion, with total net assets still close to $93.9 billion, indicating that the overall capital base has not changed significantly.
The $ETH ETF maintained its strength, with a net inflow of about $102 million on August 28, marking the 10th consecutive trading day of capital inflow, with cumulative net inflows reaching about $12.9 billion.
This round of capital divergence occurred after a Bitcoin price pullback. Influenced by the Fed's hawkish signals, market risk appetite briefly cooled. However, judging by the current scale, the single-day outflow from the Bitcoin ETF is still within normal fluctuations, more like a rhythm adjustment of funds rather than a fundamental reversal in institutional demand. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Warning! The buyback benefit has been realized, and 1255 might be the top of this wave!
Stop using the $SKHYNIX 40 trillion buyback as an argument. The benefit has already been realized; the price rose on the day the news came out on August 19. Now it is a pullback after the benefit has been fully priced in.
Look at the trend: it rose from the low point to 1255, a huge increase with substantial profits. In the early morning of August 31, a large bearish candlestick smashed from 1230 directly down to 1144, a drop of 8.8%, with increased volume. This is not a normal pullback; it is the main force unloading.
More importantly, there are fundamental concerns: on August 18, the Korean stock market plunged nearly 10%, global chip stocks collectively pulled back, and investors worry whether AI data center spending can continue. Storage chip prices may have already peaked. Although HBM is hot now, the rule for cyclical stocks is that after rising too much, they will fall.
Technically, the key support at 1200 has been broken and now turned into resistance. If the rebound cannot hold above 1200, the decline will continue, with the next support at 1100, and if weaker, 1050.
Operation: Short on a sluggish rebound between 1190-1200, stop loss at 1210, target 1140-1120. Don’t catch the falling knife under the cover of buyback benefits. $BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 This ETH pullback suddenly hit the brakes on the market.
Prices started to weaken, but ETF funds did not fully synchronize.
As of August 28, the US spot ETH ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $102 million, with BlackRock's ETHA net inflow of $83.79 million and Fidelity's FETH net outflow of $24.26 million.
What’s more noteworthy is that the ETH spot ETF has maintained net inflows for 10 consecutive trading days, starting from August 17, with a cumulative net inflow of about $1.42 billion.
This creates a rather subtle phenomenon:
The candlesticks are cooling down, but the funds have not visibly cooled off yet.
If it were just short-term profit-taking, then a price pullback wouldn’t be surprising. But ETF funds are still flowing in, at least indicating that institutional interest in ETH has not significantly declined for now.
So there’s no need to focus solely on candlestick price movements right now; it’s more important to observe the subsequent changes in fund flows.
If ETFs continue to maintain net inflows, then this adjustment is more likely a short-term sentiment cooldown; but if fund inflows also start to noticeably decrease, the pressure on ETH could further increase.
The divergence between price and funds is actually the most important aspect to watch in the current ETH market.#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
AI earnings reports are actually also a liquidity observation window for BTC.
This week, Broadcom and Dell successively released earnings reports. The market's focus is no longer just on whether AI demand is strong, but whether the huge AI capital expenditures can continue to convert into orders, revenue, and cash flow. Broadcom announced its results after the market closed on September 2, with market expectations of about $29.4 billion in revenue; Dell will announce its earnings on September 1. (StoneX) For the crypto community, this means an important question: if the AI industry chain continues to provide strong guidance, risk appetite may be supported, and BTC has the opportunity to continue maintaining high-level volatility; but if the “AI return rate” begins to be questioned by the market, and high-valuation tech assets undergo re-pricing, BTC as a high-beta risk asset will also find it difficult to stay completely unaffected. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 🦅 Hawkish Federal Reserve and Asset Games Amid Geopolitical Storms
Multiple Signal Interpretations of Gold Falling Below $4400 and Bitcoin at the $77000 Threshold
At the end of August 2026, the global financial markets are undergoing a complex game driven by intertwined monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks. Spot gold briefly fell below the $4400 mark to $4396.39/oz during the Asian session, hitting a more than one-week low; meanwhile, Bitcoin fluctuated around $77000, down about 38% from its all-time high of $126073 in October 2025. Federal Reserve Chair Wash's hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium raised the probability of a September rate hike from 39.9% to 56.9%, creating a dual pressure on interest-free gold and high-risk crypto assets in a high interest rate environment. However, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict injects a completely different safe-haven narrative for these two assets. This article deeply analyzes the current structural logic of the gold and cryptocurrency markets from four dimensions: macro policy, capital flows, geopolitical games, and asset allocation, providing investors with forward-looking and practical allocation ideas. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH $SOL $SOL accumulation opportunity has arrived, geopolitical risks have opened a window to get in
Although currently still at an unrealized loss of $2000, I decisively added to my position
Last night, the US military took action on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliated with missiles against a US base in Jordan at dawn. Normally, such geopolitical negative news would cause risk assets to drop first out of caution, but I actually see this as an accumulation opportunity for SOL.
Because geopolitical shocks are short-term emotional disturbances, while SOL's fundamentals are strengthening, which is solid.
Last week, SOL spot net inflows totaled about $154 million, and over the weekend, a whale address swept in 280,000 SOL within 10 hours. These funds are voting with real money and will not change direction just because of a strike in Hormuz.
Moreover, SOL just passed the SGP-0002 governance proposal, doubling the inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, expected to reduce SOL issuance by 18.9 million over the next six years. Simply put, fewer new coins will be issued, so existing holders' stakes will be diluted more slowly, which is a medium- to long-term price support.
Looking at the market, SOL is currently around 103, down 3% in 24 hours, but I tend to think this is a release of geopolitical panic sentiment, not a trend reversal.
If the 106-107 level is retaken, a short squeeze rally could start at any time#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Monday evening report is here! Oil prices and rate hike expectations are pressing from above, ETF funds are supporting from below, tonight this market is stuck in the middle, neither side can push the other down.
BTC is currently around 78370, 24-hour high and low are 79400 and 77000, still fluctuating within the range. ETH is about 2447, 24-hour high and low are approximately 2535 and 2387, after returning near 2450, its strength is still weaker than BTC.
US-Iran conflict flares up again, Brent crude breaks above $90, inflation concerns rise accordingly, the market pushes the probability of a September rate hike to about 60%. Rising oil prices will increase inflation pressure, tightening rate expectations, so BTC and ETH naturally struggle to move smoothly. On the other hand, last week BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $924 million, ETH about $824 million, institutional funds are still buying back the dip, which is one reason BTC has not continued to fall below 77000.
Short-term $BTC outlook is 77800 to 78800. If the 15-minute candle closes above 78800, look to 79400; if it closes below 77800, look back to 77000; rebound conditions fail below 77600.
$ETH outlook is 2420 to 2470, if the 15-minute candle closes above 2470, then look to 2500 to 2535; if it closes below 2420, then look to 2385; rebound conditions fail below 2400. Stay light in the middle range.
For record of market conditions only, not investment advice. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
BTC truly faces a dual test of "AI hype" and "dollar liquidity."
Currently, BTC remains near $78,000, with $80,000 becoming a clear psychological barrier. (Pluang) On one side, there are AI earnings reports; if Broadcom and Dell continue to validate AI capital expenditures, it could improve sentiment across risk assets. On the other side, with Fed's hawkish stance, September rate hike expectations rising to about 60%, combined with inflation pressure from rising oil prices, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are suppressing BTC. (Reuters) Therefore, the key for BTC going forward is not simply whether AI stocks rise, but whether AI profit expectations can offset the tightening liquidity pressure. If "AI strong + dollar weak," BTC may regain fuel for an upward breakout; if "AI underperforms + dollar strong," the area near $80,000 could instead become a new resistance zone.📊On August 31, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won revealed that SK Hynix is evaluating establishing a storage chip factory in Japan through a joint venture. The project is mainly intended to address the storage demand gap brought about by the AI boom while optimizing production costs. The company is currently selecting a site, prioritizing areas with sufficient power and water supply, but the partners, factory location, investment amount, and capacity plan have not yet been finalized.
The layers of logic behind the layout in Japan:
1. The AI industry creates a storage supply gap
AI servers drive rapid expansion in demand for HBM, large-capacity DRAM, and NAND
2. Japan's semiconductor supporting industry chain is complete
Japan holds a complete supply chain for semiconductor equipment, specialty chemicals, and materials; Kioxia and SanDisk have also announced that they will invest a combined total of over $31 billion to expand local NAND capacity by 2032
3. Potential government subsidies are a key variable
Japan is vigorously attracting investment in advanced semiconductor projects, and once the factory is established, Japanese policy subsidies may directly affect the final investment scale.
The core value of this matter is not just the addition of a new factory in Japan.
It marks that SK Hynix's AI storage layout is upgrading from single domestic manufacturing in Korea to a global supply chain coordinated among Korea, the United States, and Japan. At this stage, the company has finalized the Indiana, USA project, investing over $4 billion to build an advanced HBM packaging line, aiming to achieve localized mass production in the second half of 2029. $BTC $ETH $SOL #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC is holding up while $ETH and $SOL weaken, suggesting liquidity is favoring BTC over higher-beta assets.
At ~$78.7K, BTC looks more like a macro hedge than the start of a broad crypto rally.
BTC-gold correlation, US-Iran tensions, and oil risks keep inflation uncertainty elevated.
For now, I see selective BTC strength—not a full return of risk appetite.
Just my view, not financial advice.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Chinese real estate stocks surged boosted by new mortgage regulations. Is this ultimately a market rescue or an acceleration of reshuffling? On the surface, the market is lifted, but upon closer examination, it's not that simple.
The core trump card of this policy is not extending the mortgage term to 40 years, but changing the loan disbursement timing: personal mortgages are only issued after project completion and filing.
A 40-year mortgage extension can save a few hundred yuan in monthly payments on a 1 million loan, lowering the threshold on the demand side. But issuing loans only after completion directly lengthens the capital recovery cycle for developers. The previous model where developers relied on pre-sale funds to recover cash is completely invalidated; from now on, they must finance construction themselves to receive the final payment.
Based on this change, there are three clear directions:
⬇️
Real estate stocks will sharply diverge.
Farewell to broad rallies; well-funded central and state-owned enterprises and stable leaders can withstand capital lock-up, while highly leveraged, fast-turnover private enterprises face huge pressure.
Rebuilding delivery security.
Blocking the risk of unfinished projects at the source, greatly enhancing buyer confidence. In the future, only companies that can sell completed homes with solid quality will win the market.
Transaction bottoming rather than surging.
Extending mortgages lowers current thresholds but cannot fundamentally change future income expectations. The housing market will focus on stability, with prime projects in core cities recovering first.
This regulation essentially uses short-term pain for developers to achieve long-term deleveraging and prevent unfinished projects. For investment, only leading targets with strong cash flow and completed home development capabilities truly have long-term value.
DYOR The four addresses previously held a total of approximately $4.215 million in long positions and $3.169 million in short positions, with a net long position of about $1.046 million overall. The combined positions shifted 13,035.52 contracts toward the short side, valued at approximately $15.833 million at the current price. Among them, one address was nearly flat on Friday and began establishing short positions on Saturday, currently holding about $4.615 million in shorts; another address still held 2,309.47 long contracts on Friday, closed longs and reversed to short positions early this morning, with a loss of about $116,000 during the position flip; the third address switched from 1,200 long contracts to 1,800 short contracts, currently holding about $2.186 million in shorts; the fourth address had already established short positions on Friday and continued to add, currently holding about $6.581 million in shorts. SKHX closed at $1,200.9 on Friday and is now at $1,214.6, up about 1.1% since the weekend. The weighted cost of the short positions held by the four addresses is approximately $1,174.54, with a combined unrealized loss of about $487,000. SKHX's nominal open interest decreased from about $328.9 million on Friday to approximately $315 million currently, a decline of nearly 4%. Among the current 66 SKHX positions worth over one million dollars, 35 are long and 31 are short, with a long-to-short address ratio of 1.13; the long-to-short ratio by amount is 0.71, with a net short of about $36.755 million. The four addresses account for approximately 11.7% of the large short positions among them 2026 Bear-Bull Transition Series 1 — PSIP's Higher High
PSIP (Profit Supply Percentage), as an indicator from the perspective of "chip structure," has once again proven its effectiveness in this cycle.
Whenever PSIP falls below 50%, it indicates a reversal in BTC's profit and loss structure, which usually occurs in the bottom range of a major cycle (red zone).
During bear market cycles, each rebound peak of PSIP does not exceed the previous peak, which is the most direct sign of BTC's downtrend.
However, when a PSIP rebound creates a "Higher High," it deserves attention because this is an abnormal phenomenon.
Only after chips have been fully rotated and the overall cost significantly lowered can the price fail to reach a new high while PSIP rises higher.
For example, in May this year BTC was $82,000 with PSIP at 65%; now BTC is $80,000 with PSIP at 70%;
Compared to price action, this is a leading signal for the trend.
It indirectly confirms that the bottom structure was formed between June and August, simultaneously increasing the probability that this is a reversal, not just a rebound.
If the market begins to enter the bear-bull transition period, then PSIP is very unlikely to fall below 50% again (except for a super black swan event like March 12).
Thereafter, whenever PSIP falls below 65% (green zone), it is an excellent opportunity to enter on the right side.
The earlier you grasp it, the better, because later on, even if PSIP falls below 65%, BTC's price may not be lower.
------------------------------------
Final Notes
All data or indicators can only tell you the approximate position of the cycle but will not tell you the exact day to buy or sell.
In June this year, I wrote three "2026 Bottom Fishing Series" articles (links below) to provide timing references for friends' trading through logical analysis and data backtesting.
If you have read them all and still haven't bought, it's indeed regrettable, but that's okay!
Now, I plan to write another "Bear-Bull Transition Series"; I hope it can help friends who missed the early phase find suitable right-side entry points.
At the same time, I want to tell all friends who have already entered:
Hold on to your cheap chips,
No matter the storms and waves along the way;
We will definitely meet at the peak! #BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
Today, gold is around $4440–4460 per ounce, while BTC is about $78,000. After Wash's hawkish stance, the expectation of a rate hike in September has clearly heated up, and gold has recently seen a pullback. (Reuters)
Therefore, what is truly worth watching next is the "triangle relationship":
🟠 Gold
🟠 BTC
🔵 U.S. Treasury yields / U.S. dollar
If the following occurs:
Gold↑ + BTC↑ + Dollar/real interest rate↓
This is a typical resurgence of liquidity and currency depreciation trades.
If the following occurs:
Gold↑ + BTC sideways
It indicates that funds are more inclined toward traditional safe-haven assets.
If the following occurs:
Dollar↑ + U.S. Treasury yields↑ + BTC↓
It means that macro liquidity is once again becoming the biggest ceiling for BTC.
So now, BTC is not just about looking at the candlestick chart.
It is, together with gold, undergoing a macro fund repricing. 📊
#BTC #Bitcoin #Gold #FederalReserve #Dollar #USTreasury #Macroeconomics #Cryptocurrency#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold A notable change is happening: it is becoming more and more like gold.
BTC is currently still oscillating around $78,000, having previously surged above $81,500. The price has not continued to break upwards, nor has it experienced a sustained crash due to the somewhat hawkish statements from the Fed, indicating that bulls and bears are repricing at a high level. (Pluang)
What is even more noteworthy is:
The linkage between BTC and gold is strengthening.
Latest data shows that the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen above 50%, whereas at the beginning of the year this correlation was close to zero; meanwhile, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from over 60% to about 33%. (Yahoo Finance)
This may reflect a changing market narrative.
BTC is often regarded as a "high-volatility version of tech stocks," and when liquidity tightens and real interest rates rise, BTC tends to be the first to come under pressure.
Gold is a traditional store of value asset, while BTC is seen by some funds as a digital scarce asset.
They are not exactly the same, but when the macro environment changes, capital may simultaneously seek assets that are "non-sovereign, scarce, and sensitive to currency depreciation."
Therefore, the high-level oscillation of BTC this time is not just about "whether it can break through $80,000."
More importantly:
If gold continues to remain strong and BTC does not fall at high levels, BTC may be completing an important shift in its asset characteristics. $BTC #EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Wash Policy Stance Under Test #BTCHighVolatility, Strengthened Correlation with Gold #EarningsObserver: Broadcom and Dell Take Over, AI Returns Under Test Again Continuing strong at the end of August, the third quarter market also showed significant recovery, with the current quarter's gain reaching 32.48%, far exceeding the historical third quarter average of 7.94%. To find a stronger performance than this round, you have to go back to 2017, when the third quarter surged 80%.
Behind this rebound, capital inflow and short squeeze are the two main drivers. The US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow reached $1.92 billion in a single week, hitting a new high since October 2025; meanwhile, about $6.55 billion in short positions were squeezed and closed in August, further amplifying the upward momentum.
The market is beginning to revisit the 2017 bull market scenario. From late August to mid-December that year, Bitcoin once rose about 325%. However, history does not simply repeat itself. What really matters is whether ETF funds can continue and whether macro liquidity can keep improving. If these conditions persist, the fourth quarter may become a key window for Bitcoin's next phase of the market. $ETH The topic I want to discuss today is: After Waller suddenly turned hawkish, the new storm window for September has already opened. Last Friday, Waller delivered his first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting since taking office. The same speech elicited three different reactions from three markets. Spot gold fell 3.2%, silver dropped 4.2%. The two-year US Treasury yield surged about 12 basis points to 4.36%, reaching the highest level since the end of July. However, the 30-year US Treasury yield barely moved, rising only about 1 basis point throughout the day. On the US stock side, the S&P 500 index fell only 0.25%, and including that day, it still rose for the whole week. The same hawkish shock caused some assets to be repriced immediately, while others acted as if nothing happened. This split was not a coincidence on that day. The real significance of last Friday was not how much gold and silver fell, but that it previewed the allocation method for September: the same shock landed, some were protected, some were pushed out. And this was just the weight of one speech. The real schedule had long been set. In the next two weeks, three events will almost simultaneously take place. On September 9, the US Treasury will begin expanding long-term Treasury repurchases, increasing the single transaction size from a maximum of $2 billion to at least $4 billion. In the early morning of September 17, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. After Waller's speech, the market raised the probability of a September rate hike from about 35% to nearly 60%. One day later, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, with the market also betting on continued rate hikes in Japan. These three events usually fall under three different sectors, but this#EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease #BTCHighVolatility
Good afternoon everyone! Today, let's not talk about the Federal Reserve, but focus on BTC, ETH, and SOL from the perspectives of liquidity, chip distribution, and valuation.
🟠 $BTC
Institutional ETF funds dominate, with relatively stable chip distribution. The $80K+ level already prices in some institutional allocation expectations; without new incremental funds, high-level volatility is more likely.
🔵 $ETH
A mix of institutional, ecosystem, and trading funds. Staking reduces circulation, but historical trapped positions remain heavy. With no macro fund expansion, it's not easy for ETH/BTC to continue strengthening.
🟣 $SOL
Market sentiment and speculative funds have a higher proportion, offering the greatest elasticity but also the weakest sustainability. When the profit-making effect declines, SOL usually faces the largest pullback pressure among the three.
Simple summary:
Incremental funds entering: BTC → ETH → SOL
Funds retreating: SOL → ETH → BTC
So what really matters now is not who is "the cheapest," but whether incremental funds continue to enter.
⚠️ This is only a logical deduction and does not constitute investment advice. 💰 $3.2B inflow in one week, but $BTC still hasn't broken through the $80K–$85K resistance zone.
This highlights a key issue:
Money is indeed coming in, but selling pressure above is also heavy.
Continuous inflows into ETFs and funds indicate that this rebound is no longer just short squeeze; spot funds are also starting to take over.
However, if funds keep flowing in but BTC still can't break the resistance, caution is needed — the new funds might be getting absorbed by the overhead supply and profit-taking.
The focus going forward is on two points:
🔹 Whether the inflow of funds can continue
🔹 Whether BTC can break out and hold above $80K–$85K with volume
Funds determine how far the market can go; the breakout determines if the trend can continue.
#BTCHighVolatility #BTCGoldCorrelationDon't just focus on Wash; Wash is just an appetizer! Three major storms are about to hit the market in September 🔥
Jackson Hole speech is merely the starter! In the next two weeks, three heavyweight events will cluster, putting global assets to a severe test.
1️⃣ September 9 | U.S. Treasury increases long-term bond repurchases
The single repurchase limit is raised from a maximum of $2 billion directly to at least $4 billion. The Treasury's move aims to stabilize long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
2️⃣ Early morning September 17 | Federal Reserve September rate decision
Wash's hawkish remarks ignited the market; the probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% to nearly 60%.
Whether to raise rates or not will directly determine the major direction of the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and BTC.
3️⃣ September 18 | Bank of Japan rate decision
The market is betting on Japan continuing to raise rates. Fluctuations in the yen exchange rate and Japanese bonds will transmit shocks to global liquidity.
Key logic: These three events target the same goal!
Though these three events belong to different fields and seem unrelated, they are actually a coordinated set of moves:
✅ Stabilize the yen exchange rate
✅ Suppress long-term U.S. Treasury yields
✅ Prevent large-scale concentrated liquidations and stampedes in global risk assets
If any one of these links fails, both the U.S. stock market and crypto market will experience severe volatility. #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
📉 BTC holds 78K, this rebound shows a "strong" foundation
Real-time market feeling: Early session once approached 77K, despite escalating US-Iran conflict, oil price surge, and hawkish Wash, the triple negative factors didn't break the level—this kind of market not collapsing indicates internal support is stronger than expected. If it were truly weak, it would have fallen along with the drop earlier, not risen.
📊 Mainstream coin market overview (8.31)
BTC $77,800 (-0.7%, rebounded after daily low of 77K)
ETH $2,435 (-1.6%)
SOL $102 (-2.9%, temporarily lost $105 level)
BNB $688 ｜ XRP $1.37
Fear & Greed Index 62 (significantly cooled from last week's 73)
🔥 Today's resilient and volatile coins
· XMR $490 (+5.8%) — Privacy sector collectively strengthens, funds favor anonymity amid geopolitical tension
· ZEC $830 (-0.2%) — Mild pullback after big surge the day before, institutional interest remains
· UNI +10.6% — Protocol fee activation + 100 million token burn plan, deflation expectation stimulates buying
· HYPE (H) $80 (-2.8%) ｜ UB $0.11 ｜ LAB at low range, awaiting volume confirmation
🧠 Core logic
This round of pullback is more due to macro sentiment (repeated rate hike expectations + geopolitical impulses) rather than deterioration of crypto fundamentals. ETF net inflow for the week is $924 million, ETH ETF sets a record of 10 consecutive days of net inflow, institutional funds show no signs of retreat.
$77K can be seen as a short-term bull-bear dividing line—holding it maintains a high-level box range oscillation; if lost with volume, consider portfolio adjustment. Currently, my strategy is to buy in batches at low prices; since big money keeps buying during the downtrend, following smart money positioning is more reasonable than panic selling.
Privacy track (XMR/ZEC) has independent logic during geopolitical turmoil, deserves more weighting; if SOL pulls back below $100, it is a technically significant support area. The biggest variable this week is non-farm payroll data—if employment is weak, rate cut expectations rise, which could provide a breather window for risk assets.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#BTC high-level oscillation, stronger linkage with gold
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns under further scrutiny