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比特币$BTC站上8万，属于宏观流动性、机构资金、轧空行情三者共振的结果，并非单纯币圈内生行情。美国美债回购压低长端收益率、美元走弱，叠加美国加密监管友好预期，现货ETF迎来近10个月最强单周净流入，机构资金持续进场；同时大量空头仓位集中爆仓，逼空进一步加速价格冲高，8个交易日累计涨幅接近30%，市场情绪快速切换至贪婪区间。 当日交易量拆解 突破8万关口当日，全网BTC现货+合约总成交额显著放大，合约成交量占比更高，杠杆资金是行情主要推手。24小时现货成交约74‑80亿美元，合约成交接近990亿美元，量价同步放大，确认突破是增量资金推动，并非存量资金自娱自乐。但合约占比过高也代表盘面杠杆很重，24小时空单爆仓金额高达十数亿美元，逼空色彩浓厚。 市场两面观点 看多视角：ETF持续流入、美元走弱的大环境延续，8万站稳后上方目标看向83000‑85000压力位，机构配置逻辑继续生效。 看空风险：8万附近堆积历史套牢抛压，本轮上涨一部分来自空头清算，并非全部是新增现货买盘；一旦ETF流入放缓、美债数据反转，杠杆盘会快速出逃，容易出现剧烈回撤，超买状态下追高风险极高。 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？
The AI hype contest has set a new record again.
Anthropic is preparing to present investors with a $30 trillion market opportunity in its IPO prospectus.
What does $30 trillion mean? The global GDP in 2025 is expected to be around $115 trillion. But this $30 trillion is just a theoretical ceiling, not an actual revenue forecast. The real figure is—Anthropic expects revenue of about $190 to $200 billion by 2028, which is 0.6% of $30 trillion. The space is indeed huge, but not even 1% has been captured yet.
The significance of this for the crypto world is not about Anthropic itself. When an AI company can claim a $30 trillion TAM, the entire sector's ceiling is being systemically re-evaluated. AI projects in crypto with real business support will benefit, but pure concept speculation will become increasingly difficult. Those who only hype will be rapidly eliminated in this round of standard upgrades.
The big market is now volatile; the more money burned in the AI sector, the more expensive computing power becomes. As the most fundamental expression of computing power, the long-term narrative of the big market will only get stronger.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Let's talk about US debt. First of all, 40 trillion is really not a small amount.
Moreover, just like a snowball rolling bigger and bigger, with annual deficits, even if the interest rate is 0, the snowball keeps growing; the interest rate only determines whether it grows fast or faster.
Why hasn't it crashed yet? Because interest rates were low in previous years, making old debt cheap, but those are about to mature soon, and new debt is expensive. This buffer period is roughly about 3 years.
One reason for the big increase is that AI has also issued a lot of debt, competing with the government for funds, which has driven up US debt. As a result, the 30-year US Treasury yield has pushed to a 19-year high at 5.3%.
AI-issued debt has taken about a quarter of the government's share, making government borrowing more expensive, which hurts both itself and the government.
The government has a few options:
1) Direct QE, printing money to solve the problem. The person in charge of the Fed, Powell, is historically the most opposed to printing money, showing his integrity; plus, printing money directly causes inflation.
2) Intentionally crashing the stock market to reduce inflation and interest rates? Almost impossible.
3) Just dragging it out? The drag tactic is unlikely to work; short-term debt has already hit borrowing limits, and long-term debt is being taken by AI.
4) The most likely is changing the rules to have banks buy government bonds, creating a buyer. In the end, borrowing the phrase from the Ming Dynasty, "make the people suffer a bit," letting inflation slightly exceed interest rates, so the actual purchasing power of money in your bank slowly shrinks. This shrinkage quietly repays the government's debt. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 ZEC is a position opened by two traders together, with a total holding size of $455,168, the largest single position being $411,996 at 10x leverage, and another $43,173 at 5x leverage, with an average price of 757.77.
It looks like a multi-person resonance, but in reality, it's just putting all the chips on the same side. When it profits, it’s indeed fierce; when it’s wrong, it hurts just as much. The market never favors this kind of crowd play.
This kind of position fears two things the most: first, chasing in emotionally; second, stubbornly holding on when the direction turns wrong. With high leverage, even a slight volatility can wipe out your principal before you see any profit.
It’s not that you can’t go long on ZEC, the problem is you have to first figure out if you can withstand the shakeout. If you can’t and still force it, no matter how large your position is, it’s just an amplifier that magnifies greed and mistakes.
A veteran trader’s advice: a large position size doesn’t mean a high win rate, and high leverage doesn’t mean you’re smarter than the market.
Cut losses when you should, don’t wait for forced liquidation to teach you a lesson. Jackson Hole is approaching, can Waller clarify the policy path?
I believe the real highlight of this Jackson Hole is not whether Waller will directly announce a rate hike in September, but whether he can provide the market with a clear "policy reaction function."
Currently, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are very obvious. The July FOMC maintained the 3.50%—3.75% range with a 9 to 3 vote, with three officials advocating for an immediate rate hike; the meeting minutes also showed that if inflation continues to exceed the target, more officials believe further tightening may be necessary.
Just before Jackson Hole, Boston Fed President Collins again sent a hawkish signal: if future data does not prove that inflation continues to decline, the Fed may need to raise rates soon.
So what the market really lacks now is not "hawkish voices," but where Waller himself stands.
I think it is very likely he will not directly give a "September rate hike" answer.
This relates to Waller's own style of policy communication.
He has never liked giving the market overly explicit forward guidance and prefers to let policy follow the data. After the July meeting, he also did not provide a clear interest rate path.
Therefore, what is more likely to appear this time is:
If inflation does not continue to decline → policy needs to remain restrictive, and further rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
If employment deteriorates significantly and inflation continues to cool → then there is room to reconsider easing.
In other words, Waller may not tell the market "whether to hike or not in September," but will tell the market:
What kind of data would force him to raise rates.
This is actually more important than giving a specific timeline.
The most critical contradiction now is between "inflation" and "employment."
Currently, core PCE remains significantly above the 2% target, while the labor market has not completely stalled. Meanwhile, factors such as oil prices, tariffs, and AI investment may continue to put pressure on inflation.
So Waller faces a very typical policy dilemma:
High inflation → afraid to cut rates.
Weak employment → afraid to raise rates lightly.
High long-term US Treasury yields → cannot ignore financial conditions.
And this is why Jackson Hole is especially important—the market hopes Waller will explain:
Under what conditions will the Fed tolerate inflation continuing above 2%, and under what conditions will it hike again?
For BTC, this speech may be more important than a single data point.
If Waller signals:
"Inflation continues to decline, we can wait for data confirmation"
then the market will lower September rate hike expectations again, easing pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, and BTC, gold, and other risk/hard assets may gain support.
But if he says:
"If inflation does not continue to approach 2%, further tightening must be considered"
then the market will reprice:
September rate hike → Treasury yields rise → dollar strengthens → BTC faces short-term pressure.
Especially now that BTC is already in a high range, if macro policy expectations turn hawkish again, volatility may be amplified.
So this time, don’t just listen to what Waller says.
I suggest paying attention to three details:
① Whether he clearly acknowledges that inflation is still the primary risk.
② Whether he gives clear conditions for "continuing to hike."
③ Whether he downplays the market’s single bet on a September rate cut/hike.
If all three signals lean hawkish, BTC at high levels should guard against a significant expectation adjustment.
If Waller instead emphasizes that data is improving and does not give clear conditions for further hikes, the market may interpret this as:
"Hawkishness is just an option, not the current baseline path."
This would be more friendly to risk assets.
In short: Jackson Hole may not give a "hike or not in September" answer, but Waller is likely to provide a set of judgment criteria. What the market needs most now is not a fixed date, but to know—under what circumstances will the Fed hike, and under what circumstances will it continue to wait. This answer is the key to determining whether BTC can continue to break upward in the next phase. $BTC #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Wash is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole this Friday, making his first appearance as Fed Chair.
The July meeting held steady, but there were three votes against a rate hike, and internal disputes have already erupted. More importantly, Wash said nothing clear after the meeting—no direction, no framework—leaving the market completely confused.
If he doesn’t say something concrete this time, the market will only continue to guess wildly—will there be a hike in September or not? What data counts as a hard indicator for a rate hike?
When it comes to Bitcoin $BTC, the market isn’t afraid of rate hikes; it’s afraid of not knowing what you’re thinking. If Wash keeps dodging the issue, long-term rates will keep rising, and BTC will inevitably fluctuate along. If he can clarify the reaction logic, it would actually be a reassuring sign.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Trump's good friend Wash is very unlikely to provide a clear interest rate path or timetable at this Jackson Hole meeting, instead opting to "outline the macro framework and institutional principles" rather than "offer definitive forward guidance."
As Wash's debut at Jackson Hole after taking over as Fed Chair, the market eagerly hopes for an anti-inflation roadmap and policy benchmark, but multiple deep constraints mean he tends to maintain strategic ambiguity and a strong reliance on data.
Why is Wash unable to provide a clear interest rate path?
A firm opposition to "nanny-style" forward guidance philosophy, Wash has advocated since taking office for a "quieter Fed," repeatedly stating he is unwilling to "feed" Wall Street with overly detailed path forecasts. He believes forward guidance overly restricts monetary policy flexibility and distorts asset pricing mechanisms.
The "two-way squeeze" of the inflation anchor and long-end rates
Inflation has remained above the 2% target for years; prematurely releasing a dovish path would directly undermine the Fed's credibility in fighting inflation.
The Treasury's debt issuance is focused on the short end and advancing buybacks, while long-end U.S. Treasury yields and term premiums remain under pressure. If Wash releases an overly hawkish tightening path, long-end Treasuries and highly leveraged fiscal positions will face severe interest repricing shocks 🤑
Tonight, gold, U.S. stocks, and crypto markets are united‼️
$BTC $ETH For $BTC, low volatility feels more like a buildup of strength rather than exhaustion. On August 26, the PCE and GDP data will be released, followed by the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27. With these macro catalysts lined up, both bulls and bears are reluctant to take heavy positions before the events. Holding positions steady and reduced trading volume are typical signs of the market holding its breath, waiting for direction confirmation. Once the data or Powell's statements provide a signal, the compressed volatility could quickly be unleashed.
For $ETH, the underlying tone of low volatility is much more dangerous. ETF inflows are stagnating, DeFi activity remains sluggish, and on-chain gas fees have been persistently low — these are not signs of waiting, but a real contraction on the demand side. BTC's volume shrinkage is big players waiting for the wind, while ETH's volume shrinkage reflects the absence of marginal buyers: no new funds are willing to price its volatility.
In other words, the calm on August 16 was a stillness before the bowstring is fully drawn for BTC, but it might be a deserted coldness for ETH. Judging the market outlook requires looking beyond price volatility itself and focusing on where liquidity is coming from. The upcoming two-week macro window may first answer BTC's questions; for ETH to get out of the mire, it likely needs more than just a macro tailwind — it needs the on-chain ecosystem to tell a compelling story that attracts capital again.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ $xNVDA Today is Nvidia's critical day, with the Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings report releasing after the U.S. market closes tonight (early morning Beijing time on August 27).
Wall Street consensus expects revenue of $92 billion, with Jefferies more aggressively forecasting $95 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year. Last quarter was $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 74.9%.
But there's a harsh pattern: Nvidia has beaten expectations in the last four earnings reports, yet the stock price fell after all four. Why? Because expectations were too high, and during the seven consecutive declines, the market had already priced in the "no price increase despite good news" scenario.
Goldman Sachs mentioned three points: earnings will be strong, guidance has room for upward revision, but the stock price may not rise unless three major catalysts are released: improved profitability of hyperscale cloud providers, easing of capital cycle risks, and large-scale buybacks and dividends.
Servers equipped with Nvidia AI chips will see prices rise by over 15%. Major customers for Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell shipments next year have already been notified. This indicates demand is not the issue; the problem lies in market confidence in valuation.
Trading strategy: don't bet on direction before the earnings report. An oversold rebound after seven consecutive declines can happen anytime, but once the earnings report is out, the direction becomes clear. Look at the data: revenue exceeding $92 billion + guidance over $108 billion = good news, stock price may rebound; below expectations = prepare for an eighth consecutive decline.
For those wanting to play, either take a light position before the earnings or wait for the data to decide the direction. Don't catch a falling knife before the earnings.BTC just touched $81,238, then quickly dropped back to around $79,000. The two most familiar phrases in the market immediately appeared: one side shouting "Bull return quickly," the other saying "bull trap ends." I think both sides were too early to shout. Over the past week, BTC rose about 22.7%, with a net inflow of about $1.92 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and over $4 billion of crypto short positions liquidated. Putting these three numbers together makes the story easy to understand: first, real money entered, then short sellers were forced to buy back, and finally thin liquidity amplified the gains. The problem lies right here. Short squeezes are like fireworks—bright when exploding, but they're not power plants and can't supply electricity every day. After the shorts that should have exploded, whether the market can move forward depends on whether anyone will continue to hold spot positions during pullbacks. $80,000 is not the answer; it's more like a temporary test: the test is not whether the bulls can break through, but whether anyone will keep buying after the break. This rally is not just one person's shout. The weakening dollar and the retreat in long-term Treasury yields have given risk assets a breather; ETF net subscriptions have turned "liquidity improvement" from a macro slogan into visible buying orders. But the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases mainly improves bond market liquidity, not the Fed's reopening of liquidity. Calling it a "mini QE" is somewhat a bit of a fast storytelling. Therefore, I will not announce that a new bull market has been confirmed for now. BTC is returning from the previous high of about $126,000While the United States expands sanctions on Iran, new progress on the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has been reported. These seemingly contradictory pieces of news are actually jointly determining the direction of the next phase of the energy market. On August 25, the U.S. Treasury Department announced an expansion of economic sanctions on Iran, adding measures targeting nearly 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, covering sectors such as oil, shipping, gold, aviation, and crypto assets, and further strengthening secondary sanctions pressure on Iran's trade network. However, while the U.S. continues to apply pressure, Iran and Oman are discussing the establishment of a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz and advancing work to clear mines, creating conditions for the gradual resumption of shipping. On August 25 alone, only five bulk commodity vessels passed through the strait, far below normal levels. This is where the market's real focus lies. Whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume navigation is more important than the sanctions themselves. The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and is one of the world's most important energy transportation channels. Under normal circumstances, about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass through here. Therefore, as long as shipping cannot resume, the market must add a higher "geopolitical risk premium" to crude oil. Currently, Brent crude briefly fell to around $86, and WTI to about $80. The weakening oil prices do not mean the market believes Middle East risks have disappeared; rather, the resumption negotiations have led the market to start betting that the worst-case scenario for energy supply may be behind us. But sanctions and resumption of navigation are actually two different lines. The strategy the U.S. is now adopting is becoming clearer: after reducing military pressure, through financial, oilBTC at $79,000, are you going to chase it?
First, look at the surface: a barrage of positive news, shorts bleeding heavily.
In the past 10 days, BTC surged from 64k to 81k, a 23% weekly increase, with record short liquidations. ETFs have accumulated inflows of $2.7-3 billion in August, the Treasury is buying back long bonds to suppress the dollar, and Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act. The weekly chart just broke above the 50-week moving average, RSI is 80-88 indicating overbought, the direction is right, but the price is frighteningly high.
First thing: ETFs are buying, but the buying momentum is slowing down.
Net inflow was $338 million on August 24, then sharply dropped to $7.5 million on August 25. After 6-7 days of aggressive accumulation, it turned into "slowing down and watching."
Same script: In March 2024, after continuous ETF inflows slowed down, BTC fell from 73k to 56k. In January 2025, the same rhythm, from 108k down to 89k.
Retail investors are still shouting "the bull market is here," but institutions have started waiting for data.
Second thing: The macro window is here, today through Friday is a "pressure chamber."
Today (August 26) 8:30 AM ET: July PCE + Q2 GDP revision
August 27: Nvidia earnings
August 27-29: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting
Friday, August 28: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first keynote speech
PCE expected core YoY 3.3% (steady), GDP second revision expected 1.5%.
If data is soft: dollar falls, BTC pushes to 81,200 again
If data meets expectations: high-level consolidation, wait for Friday
If data is hot: the core logic of this rally—"fiscal easing + devaluation trade"—will be challenged, first hit around 76,500-77,000
Third thing: Two conflicting technical signals have appeared.
Signal A: The trend has indeed strengthened.
The weekly chart just broke above the 50-week moving average (around 77k-80k), the first time since November 2025. CryptoQuant Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 within a week, the highest since the October top last year.
Signal B: But the price is too high.
Daily RSI is 80-88, extremely overbought. Price is nearly 20% above the 50-day moving average (around 66k). On August 25, after hitting 81,200, it closed with a long upper shadow bearish candle—a typical "first stagnation candle after an acceleration phase."
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
ETFs have had 6 consecutive days of net inflows, $2.7-3 billion accumulated in August
Weekly chart above 50-week moving average, mid-term structure strengthening
Treasury buying back long bonds, weak dollar, favorable for risk assets
Shorts liquidated, leverage cleaned, futures positions down to near 5-month lows
On the other side:
Daily RSI 80-88, extremely overbought
August 25 long upper shadow, stagnation signal
ETF buying dropped sharply from $338 million to $7.5 million, slowing down
Double event risk from PCE + Jackson Hole, high volatility
Resistance above: 79,500-80,000 → 81,200-81,300 (August 25 high) → 82,800-84,000 (50-week MA + 0.382 retracement)
Support below: 78,300-78,500 → 76,700-77,300 (50-week EMA) → 73,900-75,000 (trend lifeline)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Reduce existing longs above 79,000 to less than 30%. After PCE data release, wait 15 minutes for candle to stabilize before acting. If data is hot and price breaks below 78,300, lightly short with targets at 77,000/75,000, stop loss at 79,800, quick in and out.
Swing players:
Place buy orders at 77,200 and 74,800, avoid 78,800 which "looks cheap but is actually mid-slope." First batch 20-30% at 76,700-77,300, stop loss 75,800; second batch add to 50-60% at 73,900-75,000, stop loss 72,800.
Breakout chase:
If 4H close above 81,300 and pullback to 80,000-80,500 holds, open longs again, target 82,800-84,000, stop loss below 80,000.
Invalidation line: Daily close below 75,000, August rebound downgraded to oversold bounce, strategy shifts from "buy the dip" to "sell the rally."
BTC now looks like 70k in March 2024—
99% think "ETF is here, it will go straight to 100k," but it consolidated for 8 months before truly breaking out. The direction was right, but those chasing at the top held through the entire summer.
At the moment of breaking 81,200, you will realize:
The direction was right, the timing was wrong, and you still lose money.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At 79,000, do you dare to chase?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 BTC remains the core anchor of the market, with a clear divergence appearing in the crypto market. Currently, about 60% of altcoins are in a downtrend, while $BTC shows stronger resilience around $79.2K, demonstrating clear relative strength compared to $ETH and $SOL. Notably, the spot $BTC ETF has maintained net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with a single-day net inflow of approximately $338M on August 24, indicating that institutional demand remains strong. At the same time, whales c$BTC surged to 81,000 before pulling back—Is this a bull market restart or a short-term short squeeze?
Over the past week, the crypto market has experienced a long-awaited breakout. Bitcoin returned above $80,000 for the first time in three months, reaching a high of $81,237 yesterday, currently trading around $78,900. $ETH rebounded strongly from around $1,900 to the $2,440-$2,460 range, with a weekly gain exceeding 25%. $BNB briefly surpassed $700 yesterday, now trading around $695.
This rally is driven by a triple resonance. On the macro level, U.S. Treasury repo operations doubled to no less than $4 billion each time, with the market betting on a "currency depreciation trade," pushing funds toward supply-constrained gold and Bitcoin. On the regulatory front, the SEC disclosed a new crypto asset regulatory framework, and Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, significantly reducing policy uncertainty. On the capital side, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw net inflows exceeding $2.2 billion over six consecutive days, totaling $2.61 billion for the week.
However, hidden risks lurk amid the frenzy. Nearly $300 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the network in 24 hours. Analysts point out that the initial phase of this rally was driven by large-scale short covering, and whether it can continue depends on whether spot buying can take over.
Tonight's PCE data and the Jackson Hole Symposium will be critical turning points. If inflation exceeds expectations, rising rate hike expectations could reverse market sentiment; if Fed Chair Powell signals dovishness, it could provide new support for the rebound. After this triple positive resonance, is the crypto market restarting a bull run or just a short-term celebration? The answer is about to be revealed.This round of increase, besides ETF funds, is also driven by two macro expectations:
The US dollar weakening temporarily;
The US Treasury expanding the scale of long-term bond repurchases.
Additionally, with the expectation of improved US crypto regulation, funds are buying BTC again.
However, the macro-driven market also carries risks: if the US dollar and US bond yields reverse, BTC may also quickly give back gains.The Jackson Hole annual meeting is approaching, and global markets are waiting for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh to release a key signal: will September continue tightening or take a wait-and-see approach? Walsh will deliver his first keynote speech as Fed Chair on August 28 at Jackson Hole. Compared to an ordinary speech, this one is attracting significantly more market attention because internal Fed disagreements over the interest rate path are widening. The July meeting ended with a 9-3 vote to keep rates unchanged, but several officials have already indicated that if inflation does not decline, rate hikes may still be necessary in the future. Inflation remains Walsh's biggest constraint. Currently, U.S. inflation is still noticeably distant from the 2% target. June PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year, core PCE rose 3.3%; July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year. This means price pressures have not spiraled out of control but are still far from what the Fed considers "sufficiently stable." More troubling is that the labor market has begun to cool. July U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and May and June employment data were revised down by a total of 103,000. Thus, Walsh faces a typical policy dilemma: inflation is not low enough, but employment is not strong enough. Cutting rates too early could reignite inflation; continuing to raise rates could further suppress the already slowing labor market. What the market is truly waiting for is not a simple "rate hike" or "rate cut." The most important aspect of this Jackson Hole meeting is whether Walsh can change his previously relatively vague communication style. Walsh has previously tended to reduce 加密市场延续强劲涨势，多币种迎来爆发式上涨 主流币行情一览 BTC：突破 $80,000 大关，日内涨超 4%，近一周累计涨幅突破 25%！ ETH：稳站 $2,500 上方。 SOL：大涨近 8%，重新站上 $100。 XRP：表现抢眼，过去一周涨幅超 50% 本轮强势拉升背后的核心驱动力： 1. 宏观流动性预期改善：美国财政部扩大长期美债回购，美债收益率回落，极大减轻了风险资产的抛压。 2. 空头爆仓螺旋：前期空头仓位遭遇持续清算，进一步推高了比特币的上涨动能 风险与后市关键信号： 短线超买警示：BTC 短期指标已进入超买区间，接下来需重点观察 $80,000 关口能否有效企稳，以及主流山寨币能否持续跟涨 本周重点事件：密切关注美联储主席最新讲话与即将公布的 PCE 通胀数据！#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC
Currently, BTC is around $78,900, having reached a high of about $80,200 today. What really matters is that it has just ended the previous sideways range of $62k–$67k that lasted about 6 weeks, with a gain of over 20% in the past week. This breakout initially had a clear short squeeze component, but then spot demand started to catch up, and meanwhile, futures open interest actually decreased and the funding rate did not become extremely overheated, which is healthier than a pure high-leverage pump.📊 $XAU Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Long positions controlled the market throughout but leverage declined continuously from 2.53x to 1.89x, with a 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeding $3.05 million, concentration only 18.4%, and short squeeze momentum marginally weakening...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $96.6K $69.2K $27.4K
4 hours $205.6K $155.5K $50.1K
12 hours $562.5K $340.7K $221.9K
24 hours $3.0531M $2.1946M $858.5K
In 1 hour, longs tested control with 2.53x leverage, volume $69.2K; in 4 hours, leverage slightly dropped to 2.34x, volume rose to $155.5K; in 12 hours, leverage further dropped to 1.54x, volume increased to $340.7K, long-short gap rapidly narrowed; in 24 hours, leverage rebounded to 1.89x, liquidation $2.1946M for longs vs. $858.5K for shorts, totaling $3.0531M. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for only 18.4%, indicating very low concentration and continuous long-short competition throughout the day. Long leverage fell from 2.53x to 1.54x then slightly rose to 1.89x, forming a V-shaped oscillation but overall still in a declining trend, with mild short squeeze momentum, direction biased long but with limited advantage. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, direction biased long but avoid blind chasing.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin briefly tested $80,000 before pulling back to consolidate; US economic isolation of Iran failed to push oil prices up; and Anthropic's $30 trillion TAM narrative shocks the largest IPO in history.
₿ BTC Pullback After Breaking $80,000: The Short Squeeze Test Has Just Begun
On August 25, Bitcoin once climbed to $81,257, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. It rose about 23% over the past week, marking the best performance in 2023.
However, the breakout did not hold—Bitcoin then retreated to the $78,000-$79,000 range to consolidate. The catalyst for this rally came from macro factors: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term Treasury buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-off and reigniting "devaluation trades." Last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October last year.
Analysts point out this rally was mainly driven by short squeezes; whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. Around $83,000 lies multiple resistance including the 365-day moving average, liquidation zones, supply zones, and overbought signals—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on spot buying stepping in to replace short covering.
🚢 US Expands Sanctions on Iran: From Military Strikes to "Economic Isolation"
On August 24, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a new round of sanctions aimed at "economic isolation" of Iran, calling the action an "economic Normandy landing day." The sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities listed. Yellen said the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government."
Meanwhile, progress was made in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman agreed to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor and advance mine clearance projects in the strait. However, Iran reiterated that reopening navigation depends on the US fully fulfilling its obligations.
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase, easing concerns.
🤖 Anthropic Rushes the Largest IPO in History: $30 Trillion TAM Super Narrative
AI company Anthropic expects to tell investors in its IPO prospectus that its total addressable market (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion, higher than SpaceX's previous estimate of $28.5 trillion. The company projects revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028.
The IPO target valuation is about $2 trillion, with fundraising possibly exceeding $100 billion—if realized, it would be the largest IPO in human history. The company may list as early as September or October.
A company only a few years old uses a $30 trillion TAM narrative to justify a $2 trillion valuation—the market is betting not on current profits but on AI's complete restructuring of the enterprise market. When Anthropic's IPO narrative resonates with Bitcoin's "devaluation trade" in the same week—global capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin pulled back to consolidate after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can turn into sustained buying remains uncertain; the US shifted from military strikes to "economic isolation" of Iran, with oil prices falling due to "bad news priced in"; Anthropic's $30 trillion TAM narrative shocks the largest IPO ever, redefining AI valuation limits. XAU contract longs moderately control with 1.89x leverage, cumulative liquidation $3.05 million, concentration only 18.4%, and short squeeze momentum marginally weakening. When devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and AI bubbles converge in the same time window—the market is fiercely repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 BTC broke through 80,000 again, rising 23% last week, marking the largest single-week gain in nearly three years.
There are two driving forces behind this surge: the US Treasury Secretary announced increased long-term bond repurchases, weakening the dollar and lifting both Bitcoin and gold; last week, $BTC ETF net inflows reached $1.92 billion, the strongest in nearly 10 months, and Trump is also pushing for crypto legislation.
However, the data shows some concerns. Short-term holders (cost around 68,700) took profits and transferred over 43,000 BTC to exchanges, the largest profit-taking this year. New whales realized over 1.2 billion in profits in three days, with a single-day record of 614 million. Last week, short liquidations totaled 7.2 billion, indicating this rally was largely driven by a short squeeze.
Whether it can hold depends on whether 70,000 can be defended, and whether this week's PCE and Jackson Hole provide a dovish signal. 83,000 is the first hurdle; only after surpassing it can we look at 85,000-90,000.
Personally, I am short-term bearish; funding rates have soared. After surging to 80,908 last week, it quickly fell back to 77,000, a rehearsal of a leverage liquidation. I placed some short orders and will wait for a pullback to buy back in. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $NVDA Earnings Countdown｜Landing after market close at 4:20 AM Beijing time on August 27.
The market consensus expects revenue of $92 billion, slightly above the company's $91 billion guidance, with the data center business remaining the core growth driver.
What truly determines the market trend is not this quarter's data, but next quarter's earnings guidance, gross margin, and the response to server price hike rumors.
There have been multiple instances of "earnings beat but price drops," indicating expectations are fully priced in.
This earnings report is also a barometer for AI hardware, directly impacting the storage sector including $SNDK, Micron, and Hynix.
- Guidance exceeds expectations → AI chain sentiment recovers, storage sees a rebound window
- Guidance falls short of expectations → Tech sector collectively under pressure, $SNDK further tests 1438 support
Volatility will be intense before and after the earnings; high leverage requires strict position control, do not hold through hard.
#USStocks #AIChip #StorageChip #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $$The US July Core PCE Price Index will be released at 20:30 tonight. This is a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve and will cause significant market fluctuations in the evening session.
Higher than expected → stubborn inflation, bearish for the market.
Meets expectations → market remains stable.
Lower than expected → bullish for risk assets.
Old Li tends to believe this PCE will be more likely flat or slightly higher; the probability of a significant drop is not large. The pressure on Treasury bonds is more about easing debt stress and supporting the market, rather than directly and quickly lowering inflation. Coupled with the resilience of US consumption still present. $BTC $ETH
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Family, Nvidia's earnings report is tonight, but Mi Ge wants to say first: the earnings numbers are the past, the conference call is the future. Let's first look at the cards on the table. The company's own guidance is revenue of $91 billion (±2%), gross margin 75%. Wall Street expects slightly higher, revenue about $92 billion, EPS around $2.08 to $2.09. The market's "beat expectations" space is already very small. The options market prices post-earnings stock price volatility at ±5.4% to 5.9%, corresponding to a possible revaluation of over $280 billion in market cap. The stock price has fallen for seven consecutive days before the earnings, indicating institutions are already hedging in advance. Five key signals to listen for in the conference call: First, the quality of AI cloud orders. Are new players like CoreWeave and Nebius expanding based on financing or real revenue? In August, Nvidia pulled together a $500 billion AI compute financing platform with BlackRock and Goldman Sachs. If customer utilization rises, financing is an accelerator; if utilization stays flat, financing is debt. Second, can Rubin catch up with Blackwell? Shipping two generations of products together means solid revenue visibility. A danger sign is management talking a lot about system complexity and customers' data centers not being ready—this basically means revenue will be pushed back. Third, independent revenue from Vera CPU. Last quarter, it provided nearly $20 billion in visibility. Nvidia is cutting into Intel and AMD's territory, adding another CPU growth curve. Fourth, can the gross margin hold?At 16:00 Beijing time this Friday (August 26), crypto options giant Deribit will see the expiration of 81,700 Bitcoin options worth $6.44 billion. This is not just a simple settlement but a close-quarters battle between bulls and bears at the $80,000 mark.
This week, Bitcoin has surged like it was fueled by Red Bull, climbing from $62,000 all the way to $80,000. The most embarrassed? Those market makers who sold call options.
Currently, a 0.83 put/call ratio clearly tells you that the vast majority of the market is betting on a rise. And with the price soaring, many previously absurd call options have now become in-the-money.
The current situation is that market makers are sprinting on a treadmill.
Because the price is rising too fast, to hedge risks, market makers are forced to buy more BTC in the spot market to balance their positions. This cycle of price increase—market makers buying to hedge—leading to further price increases is what we commonly call a gamma squeeze.
*Within a price range of ±5% (approximately $76,000–$84,000), there is over $500 million in notional value accumulated. This means that any slight movement around the Friday settlement will be magnified exponentially.
The most concentrated strike prices are firmly stuck at $75,000 and $80,000.
*By Friday afternoon, bulls and bears may repeatedly tug-of-war around the $80,000 level Many people are shorting $BTC and might suffer heavy losses. This rally is different from the previous two rebounds after declines; it is driven by real spot capital rather than leverage-driven short squeezes. All indicators show this is a very healthy bull market trend, at least a small bull market. Currently, big players are aggressively going long, while retail investors haven't FOMOed yet and are even shorting, which means there is still room to rise.
The current pullback is just a correction for the daily overbought condition, using 4-12h divergences for the correction. The larger timeframe is still a very strong uptrend, and market makers will keep the price below 80k until August 28.
September 15 is a critical date; after that, the market will decide whether to continue the bull run or revert to a bear market pattern. With such a large inflow of capital now, a big drop is unlikely unless the main players deliberately trigger a crash by killing longs, but even then, it will be quickly recovered.
Right now, everyone is focused on crypto and gold. Previously hot AI hardware and some persistently weak big tech and consumer stocks can be bought when no one is paying attention. Yesterday, I started a position in McDonald's and am watching Nike, Meta, ORCL, INTC, and Google. Most of these are hard to pump for others, but a crazy short squeeze will definitely happen in the future. Find the right timing, enter on the left side, and if it breaks key levels, stop loss; if not, hold on and feel secure.#Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled? $ANTHROPIC directly calls out a potential market size of $30 trillion, even higher than $SPCX's previous $28.5 trillion. A company founded five years ago is setting its ceiling close to the entire annual GDP of the United States.
The short-term narrative looks great: Q2 revenue has already exceeded $11.5 billion, annualized to $65 billion, with plans to reach $190 to $200 billion by 2028. Telling the story at this growth rate, a $2 trillion valuation and raising $100 billion seem plausible. But this $30 trillion TAM essentially counts "all the work AI could theoretically do." The combined revenue of 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 last year was only $2.4 trillion; this denominator is so large it's almost impossible to falsify, and very hard to disprove.
What really determines whether the narrative can be fulfilled is not how big the TAM is, but two things: first, whether enterprise customers are willing to continuously pay for high-priced APIs, and second, whether gross margins and computing costs can hold up. Growth is fast now, but so is cash burn, and competition is still OpenAI and Google. If the valuation is only supported by painting a big market, once growth slows down after listing, the stock price will look very bad. I personally prefer to see if it can turn the current high growth into relatively stable enterprise revenue and positive cash flow. The story can be told big, but ultimately it has to come down to orders and profits. Bitcoin has climbed back above $80,000, and market sentiment has heated up once again. But what truly deserves attention is not "how high $80,000 is," but a more critical question: after a breakout, can BTC truly turn $80,000 into a new support level? On August 25, BTC briefly surged to $81,265, a three-month high, before fluctuating back near $80,000. Meanwhile, U.S. spot BTC ETFs continued to see net inflows, with a single-day net inflow of about $338 million on August 24 and about $1.92 billion the previous week, marking the strongest weekly performance in nearly 10 months. Putting these two signals together is more important than simply breaking through $80,000. Because this means the funding structure behind this round of price increases is changing. BTC surged rapidly in the previous phase, clearly driven by short covering. Previously, the scale of short liquidations in the market once approached $3 billion, and a large number of short sellers were forced to close their positions, which itself created buying interest. But the problem is that closing short positions is a one-time investment. After the short positions are settled, if no new funds continue to enter the market, the market can easily cool down again. The current continuous inflows of ETFs offer another possibility: the driving force behind BTC's rise is shifting from "short sellers forced to buy" to "active capital allocation." This is where the $80,000 breakthrough truly deserves attention. $80,000 is not the end, but rather a test of the transition after BTC breaks through $80,000Alibaba's HKD80B placement being reportedly nearly 3x subscribed at HKD112.70 suggests investors will fund the AI buildout, but demand for shares is not yet proof of attractive returns on that capital. The sharper signal is the tension between 3.6% dilution and the stock's nearly 10% intraday decline. Joe Tsai and Eddie Wu buying 1.07M shares for about HKD120M adds alignment, though the amount is modest beside the placement. The next test is execution: AI cloud growth must translate heavy infrastructure spending into durable profit and cash flow. Not advice, just analysis.
#AlibabaPlacementDemandIf those who survive the bull market are never the ones chasing the biggest waves, but those who know how to "lock in," then are you currently counting your floating profits or your principal? Last night, I was watching BTC hover around 80,000, the green on the screen seemed to be waving, but the only thought in my mind was: at this position, who is buying and who is selling? The derivatives structure gave me the answer. The funding rate started to get sticky again, the long positions in perpetual contracts piled up thicker than pancakes at a breakfast shop, but the basis of the futures contracts stubbornly refused to widen. What does this indicate? It means most people in the market are "borrowing courage"—they are leveraged longs, but not genuinely bullish with real money; they are betting someone else will take the position next second. This structure fears sideways movement more than a drop. Once the price stops, time begins to eat away at those high-leverage positions, triggering a chain reaction. I used to make the same mistake. Holding triple floating profits, always thinking "just wait for one more bullish candle," only to have one bearish candle cut profits by 70%. That feeling is like carefully nurturing a flower, watching it about to bloom, only to have a frost destroy it all. Later, I realized that the trend is responsible for making you money, discipline is responsible for keeping it, and both are indispensable. Now my positions are divided into three parts: the base position I hold firmly, the trend position follows the moving averages, and the hot money position is decisively closed at the target. Even if one judgment is wrong, it won't cause serious damage. Going all-in waiting to get rich quick is the most poisonous soup in a bull market—everyone is a stock god when prices rise, but one correction leaves you naked.The most beguiling aspect of a bull market has never been the erratic jumps of the candlestick charts, but the collective hysteria of "this time the fundamentals have truly been restructured."
When prices repeatedly break previous highs, the market spontaneously crafts a perfectly coherent grand narrative—halving supply shocks, the ultimate form of digital gold, sovereign wealth funds entering the scene. Each logic is so airtight that it becomes irrefutable, as if the old era's valuation framework has been completely invalidated. But the most costly lesson in financial history is always: paradigm shifts can accelerate but cannot eliminate cycles; human nature can be repackaged but never rewritten.
Below are the most dangerous "new consensuses" in the current market and their cracks:
The "security illusion" of BTC: The narrative of institutionalization and national strategic reserves creates an illusion in the market of "only rising, never falling." But the real hidden risk lies in the subtle changes in the on-chain behavior of these "long-term holders" when macro liquidity tightens systemically—the premium turning point of Grayscale Trust, the shortening dormancy of whale addresses; these are more genuine supply and demand signals than halving. BTC is no longer a purely rebellious asset; it is becoming a slave to macro factors, just with a lagging response by half.
The "performance worship" of SOL: Firedancer's breakthrough has driven the market into a frenzy over million TPS, but high performance itself is not a moat; low cost is the double-edged sword.
The true vastness of the stars and sea is not in the whitepaper roadmap but in those IDE screens still lit late at night when the market has forgotten it."Issuing 2 billion more but not buying a single one: The real ledger behind Strategy holding 6.7 billion in cash"
Strategy, holding 840,000 bitcoins, just issued and cashed out $2.01 billion, but the latest disclosure shows they didn't buy a single coin for a whole week, remaining inactive for two consecutive months.
This money is split into three parts: $300 million locked in a dead money account with interest rigidly paid over 2.8 years, $136 million used to repurchase severely discounted preferred shares to restore credit, and the remaining $1.59 billion set up as a brand new flexible cash pool.
The company's cash reserves have surged to a historic high of $6.69 billion. From blindly chasing highs with a one-sided long position, it has transformed into a market-making giant holding 4% of the entire network's chips in one hand and $6.7 billion in cash as a buffer in the other. When this flexible cash will be deployed depends entirely on market pricing. $BTC Iran risk now has two competing trades. Tougher US sanctions could squeeze oil supply, lift inflation and tighten dollar liquidity. Diplomacy could do the opposite by reopening Hormuz and stripping the risk premium from crude and gold. BTC sits awkwardly between both outcomes. Lower tensions reduce haven demand but improve the liquidity backdrop. The next move may depend less on geopolitics itself and more on whether sanctions o.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #WarshAtJacksonHole #IranSanctionsAndTalks $BTC is at 78,900 today, down 2%, but still up 21.8% on the weekly chart. It surged to 81K during last night's session but gave back gains this morning. Volume shrank by 40%, with $36.7 billion in 24h trading volume, a typical pre-PCE low-volume wait-and-see scenario.
The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 74 to 65, not panic, but calm after excitement. ETFs have had net inflows for 6 consecutive days, with $338M on 8/24 alone; institutions are still buying, but retail investors are hesitant to chase.
Remember on the day of the May CPI, BTC also surged intraday then pulled back, and everyone thought it would crash, but the next day it closed with a big bullish candle. I added at $67K then and was called a "bag holder at the top" for a week — which later proved to be a good entry point. Today feels similar; a low-volume pullback is not a bad thing.
In terms of trading, 78K is short-term support; if broken, look at 75K. Resistance is at 81K. If PCE is below expectations, we could see 85K this week. If PCE is above expectations, a pullback to $75K is possible.
PCE data comes out at 8:30 PM tonight, and Nvidia earnings at midnight — two bombs dropping together. Direction depends on the data, but position sizing must be controlled; don’t go all-in betting on direction. Short-term volatility is noise; the trend line remains intact.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #BTCETFInflowsSurge There is an event I think crypto traders should not just see as a Fed speech: JACKSON HOLE. The market is focusing heavily on: $BTC is strong. Altcoins are starting to get attention. Meme is making a comeback. Gold is rising. USD is under pressure. But behind all these things, there is a bigger issue: The bond market is extremely tense. Long-term Treasury yields have climbed to the highest levels in many years, while the Treasury has to increase buybacks to support market liquidity in bonds Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF has officially started trading, recording approximately $14.8 million in trading volume on its first day. The launch of a compliant ETF has brought the long-dormant privacy sector back into the spotlight and sparked lively discussions about the long-term valuation logic of privacy assets.
Objectively, the $14.8 million trading volume on the first day represents a specific allocation and strategic interest from traditional compliant funds in the privacy sector. In an environment of increasingly stringent on-chain regulation and transparent audits, privacy exposure within compliant channels is indeed scarce. However, this trading volume mostly reflects secondary market turnover activity and does not equate to long-term net capital inflow.
Although the ETF has opened a compliant entry point for incremental fiat capital, the true determinant of ZEC's long-term value ceiling remains the actual usage demand of its underlying privacy network and the health of its economic model. Without support from real on-chain application scenarios, relying solely on external liquidity injections is unlikely to sustain an independent long-term bull market.
Regarding the layout of the privacy sector, ZEC, with the orthodoxy of zero-knowledge proofs and the backing of compliant products, possesses excellent macro hedging properties. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, improvements in the project's own token release mechanism and the prosperity of its ecosystem remain my primary considerations in evaluating its core value.
After the listing of the ZEC spot ETF, do you think the real driver for the privacy sector to enter a long bull market will be compliant funds or ecosystem applications?
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 NVIDIA has once again invested in binding Perplexity, locking in hardware shipments in the short term, but shifting the market focus to the systemic risk that downstream application profits cannot keep up with computing power consumption. $NVDA consequently faces pressure from a risk appetite repricing.
The capital closed loop has strengthened the stickiness of computing power procurement, but the circulation of funds within the chain has squeezed the willingness of external risk capital to enter. Speculative longs are concentrated in chip leaders, causing the trading side's sensitivity to inflation resilience and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path to rise significantly.
In terms of driver priority, the strength of cash flow monetization on the AI application side ranks first, followed by the capital expenditure return speed of chip giants, and lastly macro liquidity supply. The application layer lacking self-sustaining ability will accelerate the consumption of long positions' patience.
In the bullish scenario, if subscription revenue growth of applications like Perplexity surpasses the growth of computing power rental costs, and inflation falls leading to rising expectations of rate cuts, funds will push risk appetite higher again. At this time, it is necessary to observe the improvement in the ratio of end-user payment willingness to per-customer computing power cost; if the ratio stops falling and stabilizes, the long structure will continue.
The failure signal of the bullish scenario is when the monetization growth rate on the application side continuously falls below the 20% threshold of computing power cost growth. Once this ratio breaks down, the profitability logic of the capital closed loop will be directly broken.
In the bearish scenario, if application commercialization cannot keep up with hardware amortization, market doubts about the cycle injection model will turn into position exits. Persistently high inflation exacerbates valuation compression, and $NVDA will experience concentrated liquidation along with the tech stock sector.
The failure signal of the bearish scenario is when downstream leaders announce sustainable third-party positive cash flow. Unless large-scale follow-up capital injections from related parties occur, longs will recover risk discounts.
The failure condition of the current fragile market balance lies in macro inflation data rising beyond expectations or the first signs of GPU procurement order cancellations. Any unilateral capital flow break will immediately trigger a volatility spike.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on monitoring the growth slope of Perplexity's end traffic and computing power calls, while also paying attention to pricing changes in the high-yield bond market for tech unicorn financing spreads.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键$ANTHROPIC $30 trillion market? Even bragging needs a draft first
This Pre-IPO coin ANTHROPIC was pulled from 140 to 200, with RSI6 reaching 88, seriously overbought. A bunch of people are shouting to rush in, but I'll give my conclusion first: I'm not chasing.
Look at what the news says: Anthropic's pie is called a “$30 trillion total addressable market,” even bigger than SpaceX's $28.5 trillion. But! The expected revenue in 2028 is only about $190-200 billion. A $30 trillion market, you only take a small bite, what does the rest have to do with me?
To put it bluntly, TAM is just a math game—"If the whole world uses my product, I can earn this much." The question is, why you? Not enough computing power to beat OpenAI, Fable 5 is considered too expensive and hard to sell, employees are still preparing to strike. Valuation is $2 trillion, annual revenue $11.6 billion, this pie is drawn rounder than the moon.
An old trick in crypto: a trillion-dollar track doesn’t mean a certain coin is worth a trillion dollars. A high ceiling doesn’t mean you can climb there.
At this position, chasing longs risks being the bag holder, shorting risks a short squeeze. Wait until the IPO news really lands before deciding. #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Tonight (8/26 after market close) Nvidia releases its earnings report, and the entire storage chain is holding its breath. $xNVDA closed yesterday at 213.05,
+2.19%, ending a 7-day losing streak, with a market cap of 5.16 trillion dollars and a PE of 32.6. The market's pricing: revenue guidance around 91 billion dollars, EPS consensus 2.07, options implied volatility 5.4%, market cap fluctuation about 280 billion dollars.
Tracing up the supply chain: $xSNDK SanDisk closed at 1,480.77, -0.83%, PE 20, EPS 73.76, the NAND price increase logic still holds;
$xSKHY Hynix (000660) today reported 1,689,000 Korean won, +0.66%, climbing out of the -3.4% dip on 8/24. Gartner raised this year's semiconductor revenue forecast to 1.6 trillion dollars, with 2026 NAND revenue +372%, DRAM +247%, storage is the strongest downstream sector in this AI cycle.
The linkage is very clear: NVDA's high gross margin guidance → indicates it is not being hit by storage price hikes → Hynix/SanDisk's pricing power is validated → storage stocks rise accordingly. Conversely, if NVDA signals cost pressure, the storage chain's valuations will be cut.
Tonight's earnings report is not just about NVDA alone; it is the pricing anchor for the entire AI hardware chain. Fasten your seatbelt. 📊 $SOL Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Shorts monopolized extremely in the short term, with a violent long reversal in 12 hours. The 24-hour momentum has significantly weakened from its peak, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $15.51 million and a concentration rate of only 33.2%, forming an inverted V-shaped trajectory...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $22,000 $2,500 $19,500
4 hours $262,600 $207,900 $54,700
12 hours $5,149,700 $4,729,200 $420,400
24 hours $15,510,900 $13,861,200 $1,649,700
In 1 hour, shorts dominated with an extreme 7.7x control, amounting to $19,500, a tentative suppression; in 4 hours, longs mildly reversed at 3.8x, surging to $207,900; in 12 hours, longs expanded to an 11.25x peak, soaring to $4,729,200; in 24 hours, longs sharply dropped to 8.4x, with liquidations of $13,861,200 versus shorts at $1,649,700, totaling $15,510,900. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for only 33.2% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration. Longs completed the main harvest within 12 hours, but the multiplier plunged from 11.25x to 8.4x in the following 12 hours, showing a significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction is biased long, the strength is weakening, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin briefly tested the $80,000 level before pulling back to consolidate; the US's "economic isolation" of Iran failed to push oil prices higher; and Anthropic is challenging the largest IPO in history with a $30 trillion TAM narrative.
₿ BTC Pullback After Breaking $80,000: The Short Squeeze Is Just Beginning
On August 25, Bitcoin once climbed to $81,257, marking the first return above $80,000 since May 15. It rose about 23% over the past week, the best performance since 2023.
However, the breakout did not hold—Bitcoin subsequently retreated to the $78,000-$79,000 range to consolidate. The catalyst for this rally came from macro factors: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term Treasury buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar selling and reigniting "devaluation trades." Last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October last year.
Analysts point out that this rally was mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. Around $83,000, multiple resistances exist including the 365-day moving average, liquidation zones, supply zones, and overbought signals—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering.
🚢 US Expands Sanctions on Iran: From Military Strikes to "Economic Isolation"
On August 24, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a new round of sanctions aimed at "economic isolation" of Iran, calling the action an "economic Normandy landing day." The sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities listed. Yellen said the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government."
Meanwhile, progress was made in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman agreed to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor and advance mine clearance projects in the strait. However, Iran reiterated that reopening navigation depends on the US fully fulfilling its obligations.
After the sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92 per barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks, and the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase, easing concerns.
🤖 Anthropic Rushes for the Largest IPO in History: A $30 Trillion TAM Super Narrative
AI company Anthropic expects to tell investors in its IPO prospectus that its total addressable market (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion, higher than SpaceX's previous estimate of $28.5 trillion. The company projects revenues of $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028.
The IPO target valuation is about $2 trillion, with fundraising possibly exceeding $100 billion—if realized, it would be the largest IPO in human history. The company may list as early as September or October.
A company only a few years old is challenging a $2 trillion valuation with a $30 trillion TAM narrative—the market is betting not on current profits but on AI's complete restructuring of the enterprise market. When Anthropic's IPO narrative resonates with Bitcoin's "devaluation trade" in the same week—global capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin pulled back to consolidate after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can turn into sustained buying remains uncertain; the US shifted from military strikes to "economic isolation" of Iran, and oil prices fell due to "bad news already priced in"; Anthropic challenges the largest IPO in history with a $30 trillion TAM narrative, redefining AI valuation limits. $SOL contract longs fell from 11.25x to 8.4x, with cumulative liquidations of $15.51 million and a concentration rate of only 33.2%, showing significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum. As devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and AI bubbles converge in the same time window—the market is fiercely repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 The full outbreak of the altcoin season does not mean that everyone can securely pocket profits. The most striking signal in the market these days is actually the sense of order in capital flows, rather than just the pure numbers of price increases. ZEC has multiplied twentyfold within a year, established fork coins like BCH and ETC have regained vitality, SOL, UNI, and AAVE have strengthened simultaneously, and even meme coins like WIF and TRUMP have been gently lifted by liquidity. This is not a solo act of a single sector, but a complete path of capital gradually permeating from core assets to the periphery 🧭 The real change worth noting is that ETH, after catching up, has firmly stood above $2500. The significance of this level is that it confirms that the funds flowing out of Bitcoin have not exited the market but have found new directions to settle. Capital first flows into privacy and fork tracks, then spreads to public chains and DeFi protocols, and finally even the highest risk appetite meme assets gain favor. Only when this transmission chain operates smoothly can the altcoin season be truly established. The only exception is ZEC, whose surge is more due to Grayscale submitting an ETF amendment proposal as a self-catalyst, with less correlation to the overall capital diffusion. To judge the sustainability of this market trend, three progressive conditions can be observed. First, whether BTC can maintain its current structure without breaking, which is the foundation of the entire market sentiment; second, whether ETH's performance relative to BTC can continue to strengthen, directly reflecting the willingness of capital to overflow; finally, the resilience of SOL and other L1 public chains' bounce#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level?
In late August 2026, Bitcoin made a strong rebound, once breaking through the $80,000 mark, reaching a new high since mid-May, with a peak around $81,000. This rally was mainly driven by continuous net inflows into the US spot ETF (nearly $1.9 billion in a single week), the US Treasury buyback plan boosting risk appetite, and massive short positions being liquidated. From the low point, the price surged over 25% in just a few weeks, quickly shifting market sentiment to optimism. However, after the breakout, the price quickly fell back to oscillate between $78,000 and $79,000, indicating that $80,000 remains a strong resistance zone. The short-term RSI has entered overbought territory, with clear profit-taking pressure. Whether it can truly hold depends on two key points: first, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in and push the price to form effective support above $80,000; second, whether macro factors (interest rate expectations, US dollar trends) continue to cooperate. If the weekly close stabilizes above $80,000, the next target could be $85,000 to $90,000; if it breaks below the $76,000 support, it may return to a consolidation phase. Overall, the rebound foundation is decent, but holding the level still requires volume and time confirmation. Investors should be cautious about chasing highs and manage risks properly. $BTC $PUMP funds may be shifting
Solana meme coin trading is showing signs of fatigue. Even with a sharp rebound in $PUMP, new issuance projects struggle to maintain meaningful valuations as crowded copy trading makes liquidity harder to capture.
This could drive traders to $ETH and deeper ecosystem plays$CL Bearish. Russian media suddenly reported at dawn that the US and Iran have finalized the terms of a ceasefire agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz will resume free navigation. Market expectations for a genuine reconciliation between the two countries are rapidly heating up.
Impacted by this news, oil prices sharply gave back previous gains; meanwhile, US sanctions on Iran are less severe than market expectations, and Iranian crude exports will not be directly interrupted. Coupled with API crude inventories increasing by 4.2 million barrels, the continuous accumulation of inventories further suppresses oil price trends.
I positioned short on crude oil in advance yesterday, and the current price has reached the 80 target level, so I took profits and exited. I will wait for the official US-Iran announcement to be released before choosing the right time to re-enter. #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元 $UNITREE
The current price slump is not caused solely by technical factors; there are three fundamental suppressions:
1. Founder "cooling down" statement: On August 20, Wang Xingxing bluntly said, "Currently, the overall efficiency of robots completing tasks is still lower than that of humans, and large-scale entry into factories, homes, and other scenarios still requires further breakthroughs," directly bursting the speculative bubble.
2. Institutional target price "gravity": Nomura Securities gave a target price of 370 yuan, and CCB International gave 269 yuan — while the current A-share price remains near 600 yuan, there is still a huge gap between institutional valuations and market prices.
3. Changes in competitive landscape: In the first half of 2026, Unitree humanoid robot shipments were about 5,900 units, surpassed by Zhiyuan (8,400 units), dropping from global first to second place.
Several key levels to watch currently:
· Upper resistance: 91.55 → 100 round number → 114–115 (equivalent to IPO first-day closing price, important resistance zone)
· Lower support: 88.50 → 86–88 (previous consolidation range) → 84.50–85.00 (Bollinger lower band area)
Summary
$UNITREE is currently priced at 88.85, in a stalemate phase between bulls and bears after the IPO frenzy has cooled down. Short-term moving averages are converging, and negative funding rates are extreme, indicating the market is waiting for a directional choice. The core obstacle to the upside is the huge valuation gap between institutional target prices and market prices; the downside buffer is the support band provided by the Pre-IPO cost range (50–85 USDT)$XAU Gold has not broken through the 4700 level for two days
Currently, resistance around $4700 remains quite strong, with speculative positions relatively high
Gold is very likely to enter a high-level consolidation in the short term, focusing on the 4700-4500 range
Yesterday it did not break below the 5-day moving average, closed with a doji, showing clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with 4600 temporarily holding support.
Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the PCE data and Waller's speech
Bull-bear divergence is increasing, with some funds taking profits and exiting
However, if 4700 is not broken, a deeper correction is likely needed before a strong rebound can push prices further.
If a correction occurs, focus on the 4500-4450 area as a buy zone; personally, if the bulls continue, the correction should not fall below this support level, as too deep a pullback is unfavorable for an uptrend.
In the short term, be wary of repeated tug-of-war near 4700; the core principle now is to be bullish but not chase highs, and to strictly cut losses.
The news remains mostly bullish
Fidelity Fund increases gold holdings — a core bullish signal
A Fidelity International fund manager has doubled gold holdings to the internal 5% limit over the past three weeks and indicated that if the dollar's safe-haven status continues to weaken, further increases to the limit are possible. The core logic is a bet on a Fed credibility crisis and the decline of the dollar's safe-haven status, reflecting mainstream asset managers' recognition of gold's medium- to long-term logic.
2. US debt credit risk — the core driver of this rally
The current gold pricing logic has shifted from the traditional real interest rate framework to a credit logic dominated by US fiscal sustainability and sovereign credit risk. The US Treasury has doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchase operations, but market concerns remain amid a $40 trillion fiscal deficit. The key variable driving gold prices is shifting from interest rates to dollar credit hedging and de-dollarization.
3. Geopolitical situation — short-term suppressing factor
Significant progress reported in US-Iran ceasefire talks, with consensus reached on free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil prices to fall sharply. The decline in geopolitical risk premium limits gold's short-term upside space.
4. Key events this week — PCE data and Jackson Hole Symposium
· Tonight (August 26): US July PCE data and Q2 GDP revision
· Friday: Fed Chair Waller's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium
· CME data currently shows a 60.4% probability the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, and a 39.6% chance of a rate hike
The above are personal views for reference only.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 星球搜索帆啊交易员，他正在找群友借钱。自身债务已经因为爆仓和延期越滚越大。现在正在想办法搞钱This time at Jackson Hole, what Wash most needs to provide is not a hawkish or dovish statement but a reaction function that the market can understand. What investors are really worried about now is: what if inflation is a bit higher? What if employment is a bit weaker? What if long-term bond yields keep rising? If every question is answered on the spot, the market will fill in the blanks itself. And when the market fills in the blanks, it usually gets expensive. Bonds will move first, followed by the dollar and gold, and then BTC and tech stocks will be dragged along. I think the core of Wash's speech this time is not to soothe emotions but to draw a line. Which data will trigger a rate hike, which kind of financial stress will make the Fed step back—if these are not made clear, every macro data release afterward will turn into a guessing game. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The U.S. government and capital markets talk big about the bill, but in reality, they are fully betting on AI. They are continuously channeling funds into AI and have also invested in companies like rare earths, Intel, and IBM, making banks' balance sheets carry more AI assets.
On the other hand, the U.S. government also wants to direct funds toward stablecoins. The inflow of stablecoins during the crypto bull market can boost U.S. Treasury demand and improve the current Federal Reserve balance sheet.
Increasing holdings of AI assets is the main task, bearing future development and returns. The secondary task is to issue policies supporting crypto to direct funds into stablecoins, using stablecoins to boost U.S. Treasury demand.
Therefore, once the bull market starts, I believe there is no turning back. Crypto assets have the responsibility to finance U.S. Treasuries, like a small horse pulling a big cart. If policy can drive hundreds of billions of dollars into stablecoins without spending money, entering U.S. Treasuries, this is the best solution and also the cause of this bull market. $ETH $BTC $SOL From the order flow, a large number of limit ask passive trades can be seen.
BN's CVD high points show weak divergence.
Then the aggregated CVD highs appear normal, but the lows show absorption divergence.
CB continues to buy,
but BN's trading volume is even larger.
CVD above 100K shows a weak state,
accompanied by a large amount of buy delta, corresponding to passive trades on limit asks.
Of course, some aggressive shorts also entered at today's low.
The buyers and sellers are in a tug of war; we just watch.
In terms of operation, the current market shows significant buyer weakness and extreme supply suppression when pushing toward the 80,000 high. Although the price once broke the critical level, demand failed to sustain effectively, causing many buy orders to be passively executed within the upper limit ask zone. Derivatives data and large capital flows both show clear high-point divergence. Overall assessment indicates that the market's momentum to continue upward at the current high is exhausted, with clear signs of chip distribution phase. The probability of a deep correction sharply increases, so the current strategy should focus on defense and locking in profits. Gamblers, betting saints, and those ready to go bankrupt and hit zero, let's just throw the research report into the trash and break down tonight's Nvidia earnings report in gambler's terms. Remember our trader's iron rule: don't look at the news, look at the K-line; don't guess long or short, guess the dog dealer. 🎰 Tonight's "casino rules" (Beijing time 04:20 tomorrow morning) The options market is currently betting on a ±5.4% volatility tonight, meaning $280 billion is jumping up and down. This is not an earnings report; this is Macau underworld drama. Let's not think about "value investing," let's focus on three things: which side to buy? When to run? Where to cry if stopped out? Nvidia will release its Q2 earnings after the U.S. market closes tonight (August 26), with very high market expectations: · Revenue: Wall Street expects about $92 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year · Earnings per share (EPS): expected around $2.08-2.09 · Options pricing: implied post-earnings stock price volatility ±5.4%, corresponding to about $280 billion market cap fluctuation The most critical thing is not "exceeding expectations," but "explosive growth." Nvidia's stock price fell after the last four earnings reports, despite exceeding expectations each time. The market now wants Q3 revenue guidance to break through $103-105 billion and gross margin to stay around 75%—anything below that is "failing." Additionally, Goldman Sachs warns that if three major catalysts do not materialize, the stock price may still fall; the market is also watching the progress of Vera Rubin architecture shipments this fall and the nature of the $500 billion AI financing plan. 2. Impact on memory chip trends Memory chip