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Fundamental Research Report $SUSHI / SushiSwap (DeFi) $3.20
Conclusion first: SushiSwap ($SUSHI) overall score 48/100, rating Early-stage project, insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Fundamental breakdown: SushiSwap (token $SUSHI), DeFi sector. Focuses on multi-chain DEX. Competitors include UNI, CAKE. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, and user data is not controlled by users. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction value is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: SushiSwap $3.00B, UNI undisclosed, CAKE undisclosed. FDV: SushiSwap $4.20B, UNI undisclosed, CAKE undisclosed. Annual revenue: SushiSwap $2.00M, UNI undisclosed, CAKE undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: SushiSwap undisclosed, UNI undisclosed, CAKE undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, and enterprise clients entering aligns FDV P/S with top projects. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 48/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Tracking indicators: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be realized?
At first glance, I even thought I misread the $30 trillion figure. $ANTHROPIC is preparing to show IPO investors a potential market size exceeding $30 trillion,
even larger than the $28.5 trillion previously given by SpaceX. Its calculation is also interesting: it doesn't just count today's software market, but includes all human work that AI can complete, replace, or assist in the future.
So this number looks exaggerated, but it actually expresses Anthropic's judgment on the AI endgame: AI's future competition is not for software budgets, but for global labor productivity.
But from an investor's perspective, no matter how large the TAM is, it is still a theoretical ceiling.
Currently, its Q2 revenue has reached about $11.6 billion, and the company expects revenue to possibly reach $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028—this is the figure I find more worth watching. The market is currently discussing an IPO valuation approaching $2 trillion.
Moreover, Anthropic has a problem it must prove: with revenue growing so fast, can profits keep up?
Model training, inference, data centers, and talent are all burning money wildly. AI companies have now passed the stage of simply competing on model capability; the next real competition may be—who can turn Tokens, computing power, and users into stable profits and cash flow in the end.
So the $30 trillion figure, everyone should just take it as a story.$ZEC spot and derivatives show a severe divergence in flow direction, with continuous net outflows in spot accompanied by active sell orders three times the buy orders, while contract buying and borrowed coin leverage accumulate inversely, putting high-level chip structures under liquidation pressure.
The price dropped from a high of 867 to 751, squeezing out a 13% single-day amplitude, giving back 9% of the previous week's 54% gain. Exchange contract positions shrank by 6%, indicating some longs have been forced out, but on-chain borrowing surged nearly 30% within 12 hours, meaning new funds are forcibly taking over through increased leverage.
The core driving force on the main market is active spot selling, with 12 consecutive periods of net outflow showing real chips are being realized. Low capital costs simultaneously amplify leverage retention in derivatives, and a 0.01% fee allows new longs to maintain resistance at a low cost.
If active sell orders on the spot side continue to dominate and the price breaks below the 751 support, the high-level accumulated borrowed coin leverage will face forced liquidation risk, making the market prone to long liquidation and downward pressure. In this scenario, if the price rebounds to the 790-800 range without spot buying support, it often becomes a secondary confirmation point for continued leverage selling pressure release.
If the rebound is accompanied by a reversal in spot flow, with the active buy-sell ratio returning above 1 and the 3-hour net inflow indicator turning positive, the strong long support in derivatives may convert into effective upward momentum. A volume-backed price rise above the moving average will confirm that spot selling pressure has been effectively absorbed.
When whale positions increase buy orders by 8% but cannot offset spot outflows, or the price breaks below 751, the high-leverage support path is declared terminated. If the spot active buy-sell ratio first breaks above 1 and net inflow turns positive, the original bearish conditions simultaneously become invalid.
In the next 24 hours, focus on the support performance at the critical 751 level, whether the 3-hour spot net inflow can turn positive, and if the active buy-sell ratio returns above 1.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？ #ETH触及2500美元后震荡比特币冲破八万的那一刻，我盯着屏幕愣了一下，不是激动，是有点想笑。 你猜，真正买单的到底是散户的勇气，还是空头的燃料？ BTC 从 76,681 一路拉到 81,280，现在稳在 80,900 附近，24 小时涨幅 2.28%。我之前注意过一根数据线：80,000 美元附近挂着近 1.393 亿美元的空单清算墙，这一波直接被打穿。简单说，价格不是被买上去的，是被空头止损推上去的。 但真正让我在意的不是破了八万，而是破的方式。 过去几次假突破，行情总是先插根针上去，再一根阴线砸回来，留下一地爆仓的哀嚎。这次不一样，价格冲高后回落到 80,900，没有立刻失守，反而像踩稳了台阶。这说明有真实买盘在接，不是单纯轧空行情。 技术面上已经明显过热了。RSI6 跑到 85.72，KDJ 的 J 值飙到 94.7，价格贴着布林带上轨 80,773 走，短期动能强得有点吓人。但 SAR 指标还稳稳托在 78,855 下方，至少说明趋势结构没坏。 热归热，没坏就是没坏。 有个细节我特别想提。HODL15Capital 的数据显示，80,000 附近积累了一批挂了近 100 天的卖单。这些长期挂单如果真被Market Snapshot
Bitcoin current price is $78,789.10, down 1.31% in 24 hours. The amplitude closed at 4.29 percentage points, indicating considerable volatility.
The 24-hour high was $81,280.00, the low was $77,854.10, with a trading volume of $683.13M, showing active turnover between bulls and bears.
Across the market, 37 assets rose while 107 fell, with rising assets accounting for 25.7 percentage points, clearly reflecting market sentiment.
In the privacy coin sector, watch $XMR; trading volume is relatively low, so first observe if smart money makes any moves.
In the L2/sidechain sector, watch $ARB; volatility has narrowed, wait for directional confirmation before acting.
Top 3 gainers are $STX +19.33%, $SNT +17.51%, and $NES +12.34%; smart money has already placed their bets.
Top 3 losers are $STORJ -21.45%, $PEOPLE -15.08%, and $MON -12.15%; profit-taking traders have abruptly exited.
Conclusion: The number of rising and falling assets sets the tone, the leaders in gains and losses set the direction; don’t go against smart money.
Market data is sourced from OKX public API and does not constitute any investment advice.
That’s all for now; manage your entries and exits wisely.$LIT short signals have shifted from trial positions to heavy positions.
In the previous cycle, a swing wallet with about 2.95m USD profit over nearly 30 days and a maximum drawdown of about 6.1% held approximately 153k USD in LIT shorts and placed sell orders totaling about 537k USD.
According to the latest official data, around 694k USD in short positions were opened in the past 24 hours, and the current short position has expanded to about 654k USD. The previous sell order intentions have now converted into actual positions.
However, the signal still comes from a single wallet. What is worth noting is the execution completion of the shorts, rather than the market reaching a consensus.After SOL surged to 100 in this round, I've been waiting for a piece of data.
Will the ETF money stop?
The latest day:
Another $142 million inflow.
It has been a net inflow for 7 consecutive trading days
I find this more interesting than a sudden $250 million inflow on a single day.
One day could be just sentiment
Seven consecutive days at least shows this wave isn't just shorts being forced to liquidate.
The day it first turns into a net outflow, I will be especially eager to see.
$SOL#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
Geopolitical cooling, market repricing: crude oil plummets, why is BTC conflicted?
WTI crude oil fell below $80, dropping over 5% intraday. Progress in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Qatar mediating, indirect US-Iran talks, and Oman intervening in temporary channel management—markets quickly squeezed out the "war premium."
Gold retreated in sync, weakening the safe-haven premium. BTC surged above 80,000 then pulled back, caught in the most conflicted position:
· Short-term treated as a risk asset; crude oil crash and easing inflation expectations weaken the "hedge against fiat depreciation" narrative;
· Medium-term supported by expectations of improved liquidity (oil price drop = room for rate cuts);
· But if negotiations advance, safe-haven demand diminishes, liquidity improvement may lag, causing "no strong rise, no deep fall."
Three possible scenarios ahead:
1. Sanctions enforced but strait remains open: crude oil weak, BTC driven by liquidity expectations;
2. Channel agreement reached: risk premium continues to clear, BTC under short-term pressure;
3. Negotiations break down: oil price rebounds, BTC initially falls then decouples.
The current baseline scenario is "diplomatic cooling but sanctions remain," with crude oil’s war premium still having room to release, and BTC repeatedly testing the $80,000 level—stabilization is a medium-term positioning point, but a volume-driven breakdown requires caution against a sell-off.
Operationally, avoid chasing highs or panicking on dips; stay flexible. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
Regarding the recent changes in the Middle East situation, I think we shouldn't just simply focus on the rise and fall of oil prices; the chain reactions behind will transmit to gold and crypto markets, which is worth a thorough analysis.
The US has now adjusted its strategy towards Iran, no longer focusing on military actions but instead intensifying financial and trade sanctions, while arranging for some diplomatic personnel to return to the Middle East. Countries like Qatar are mediating to promote the resumption of US-Iran negotiations; Iran and Oman are also discussing practical plans for a temporary shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz and joint mine clearance.
After a series of diplomatic cooling signals emerged, the market's panic over an immediate oil supply disruption has clearly eased, and crude oil has given back the previously accumulated risk premium.
However, in my view, this game is far more complex than just oil supply.
If subsequent sanctions completely cut off Iran's oil exports and cross-border payment channels, energy inflation will make a comeback, US dollar liquidity and global safe-haven funds will be repriced, and the safe-haven buying of gold and BTC will be reignited.
Conversely, if the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane negotiations achieve substantial breakthroughs and tensions further ease, the risk premiums on oil and gold will continue to decline. Bitcoin will face a very contradictory situation: on one hand, the retreat of geopolitical risk demand is bearish, but on the other hand, the easing situation brings global liquidity improvement, which will provide support. These two forces will tug against each other, and the market will not follow a simple one-sided trend. Why has Kai been consistently bearish on $SNDK and $SKHYNIX?
The reason for being bearish on SanDisk and Hynix is quite simple: the storage sector's overvaluation bubble hasn't been fully digested yet. Coupled with the overall pressure on the Nasdaq at high levels, the macro uncertainty from the US midterm elections, and the tech growth and storage high-valuation stocks, every rebound is an opportunity to short, not a reversal.
In this downturn, Hynix's decline is mainly dragged down by the Korean stock market, while SanDisk's drop is purely due to capital outflow in the US stock market and valuation cuts, representing the main players actively cashing out their chips.
The trading strategy is to keep shorting on every rebound.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 WTI crude oil once fell below $80 per barrel. Brent crude oil dropped more than 5% in one day.
At the same time, Bitcoin broke through $81,000, reaching the highest level since mid-May.
Same news, two markets, completely opposite reactions.
What news?
Consensus reached on US-Iran ceasefire agreement terms, with hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a temporary navigation corridor.
Oil prices plummeted—because the expectation of supply disruption disappeared.
BTC surged—because inflation cooled + risk appetite returned.
But don’t celebrate too early.
The agreement hasn’t been signed yet. The exact words of Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Karbasian were: "Iran is still in a state of war, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed."
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just announced "unprecedented economic isolation" of Iran. Trump threatened, "The Bray ship will be destroyed."
The dawn of peace and the shadow of war coexist.
In the next 60 days, Iran and Oman will negotiate a permanent route. These 60 days will determine whether your position doubles or halves.
Three scenarios, I’ve analyzed them for you.
Scenario A: Navigation agreement officially signed + sanctions maintained (40% probability)
WTI falls back to the $75-78 range.
What about BTC? It will rise first, then fluctuate.
Inflation expectations cool, the Fed breathes a sigh of relief, and risk assets benefit in the short term. But sanctions remain, Iran’s oil and cross-border payments are still cut off—de-dollarization accelerates, which is bullish for BTC in the medium to long term.
Strategy: Add to spot positions on pullbacks. Don’t chase highs; wait for the market to digest the first wave of good news before acting.
Scenario B: Negotiations break down + military conflict restarts (20% probability)
WTI jumps above $90.
What about BTC? It crashes first, then surges.
Phase one: Risk-off sentiment explodes, the dollar strengthens, liquidity tightens—BTC is sold off as a risk asset.
Phase two: Energy inflation soars, fiat credit collapses, BTC’s "digital gold" attribute is repriced—violent rebound.
Strategy: Bottom-fish after extreme pullbacks. When others panic, be ready with ammunition. But remember—only use money you can afford to lose.
Scenario C: Agreement signed + sanctions eased (40% probability)
WTI continues to weaken to $70-75.
What about BTC? The most bullish scenario.
Inflation cools + global trade recovers + risk appetite fully rebounds = altcoin party season.
Strategy: Increase altcoin positions to play for volatility. BTC as the base, altcoins on the offense—this is the highest odds play.
Core conclusion:
Scenarios A and C combined probability is 80%—overall bullish direction.
Scenario B probability is low (20%) but highly destructive—position control is needed to guard against black swans.
Current position odds favor the bulls, but the win rate requires confirmation from the agreement’s implementation.
The 60-day countdown has begun.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister made it clear: "If Iran’s demands and conditions are not met, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed."
The US sanctions stick is still swinging.
This is not a story that has ended—it is a story just entering its climax.
$BTC $CL $BZ #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
Bitcoin has once again surpassed the $80,000 mark, with the current rebound rally continuing to gain momentum. Looking back at this rapid rise, it was mainly driven by short covering and a return of spot buying. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of as much as $1.92 billion last week, marking the largest single-week capital inflow in nearly 10 months. Institutional funds have entered aggressively, becoming the core driving force behind the rally.
However, as the price reaches a high level, risk signals are gradually emerging. The proportion of short-term holders in profit is continuously increasing, with a large amount of chips already in a profitable state. On-chain fund flows to trading platforms also indicate that profit-taking selling pressure is steadily rising, which could trigger a pullback at any time.
In the coming week, the market will face a series of key macro events. July PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, and revisions to employment statistics benchmarks will all be released one after another. Each of these could change market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate path, directly impacting the crypto market’s trend.
Whether the market can fully transition from a short-term rebound to a new bull market depends on much more than just breaking through $80,000. The subsequent market height will depend on whether incremental ETF funds continue to flow in, whether spot trading activity can be maintained, and whether macro market risk appetite can keep rising. The $80,000 mark is a key battleground between bulls and bears. Volatility will significantly increase during this high-level consolidation phase, so be cautious about chasing highs and patiently observe the capital relay situation.WTI fell below 80, Brent is approaching 85.
There has been progress on the ceasefire, risk assets should be celebrating—right?
But BTC is still stuck grinding between 78,000-79,000.
Bitcoin once surged to $81,237, then immediately dropped. Oil prices fell 5% in one day, but BTC acted like it didn’t hear anything.
Why? Three words: "Not signed yet."
📌 Russian media says consensus reached ✅
📌 Iran says a temporary route understanding has been reached, limited to commercial ships ✅
📌 Trump says mines have been cleared ✅
📌 Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister says it won’t open immediately ❌
📌 White House officials say no negotiation arrangements yet ❌
What the market fears most is not bad news—but "good news that hasn’t materialized."
Oil prices have already dropped because the market is pricing in peace in advance. But BTC doesn’t dare to surge because no one knows if Trump will wake up tomorrow and tweet again to flip the table.
This script is too familiar: good news comes out → price rallies first → then it’s found to be from “sources” → no official confirmation → price falls back → when the actual signing day comes, the price can’t rally anymore.
But the direction is clear:
🔹 The route opens → short-term pressure on oil prices → inflation expectations ease → positive for risk assets
🔹 Sanctions not lifted → Iran accelerates de-dollarization → long-term demand for crypto rises
🔹 Rising expectations of dollar depreciation → BTC just broke 80,000 three days ago, hitting a three-month high
Short term: volatile waiting for signing.
Long term: upward trend unchanged.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen put it bluntly—the Iranian leadership has acknowledged that economic pressure is working. The Trump administration intends to continue cutting off Iran’s economic lifeline until Tehran is isolated.
What does this mean? Sanctions won’t be lifted easily.
What does this mean? The story of de-dollarization is far from over.
$BTC $CL $BZ #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $ZEC surged to 867 yesterday, then crashed down to 751 today, with a daily volatility of 13 points and a weekly gain of 54%, but gave back 9% in one day.
The drop is so sharp that the spot and futures accounts don't match at all. On the spot side, active sell orders are nearly three times the buy orders, with 12 consecutive periods of net outflow. All sold are physical tokens. Meanwhile, futures are increasing positions in the opposite direction, with active buys accounting for 62%. Whale holdings haven't decreased but increased by 8%. On-chain borrowing volume surged nearly 30% in 12 hours.
Leverage is also fracturing internally. Exchange futures positions shrank by 6% in one day, falling into the short-surrender quadrant. On-chain borrowing volume, however, exploded. Old bulls are cutting losses while new leverage is entering. Fees are close to 0.01%. New positions don't even need to cover leverage costs; it's all emotional holding. This kind of catching the falling knife increasingly looks like fueling the next downtrend.
I am bearish on ZEC. If 751 breaks, chase downwards. A rebound to 790-800 is a zone to add shorts. A reversal requires spot to turn to buying, with the active buy/sell ratio returning above 1, 3-hour net inflow turning positive, or price volume breaking above moving averages. Only then, if leverage truly holds, will I close my short positions. $BTC $ETH
Spot is running, futures are holding. The catching fuel is piling up more and more. Don't bet on a reversal in the middle position. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Suddenly had a thought: if $BTC breaks through $100,000 in the next month or two, how will altcoins perform?
Scenario guess off the top of my head:
$CFX is currently just over $0.04, far from its all-time high of $1.7. It’s at least an L1 with a domestic chain narrative. If BTC really stabilizes at $100,000 and funds rotate to L1s, I think $0.12–0.18 is reasonable, maybe crazier at $0.25, but don’t believe any nonsense about returning to ATH.
$CORE I’m very bullish on this coin. If BTC breaks $100,000 and the BTC ecosystem/staking narrative gets hyped, doubling from the current price to $2–3 seems possible, but liquidity is average, so the upper wick will be long, and I’m afraid you won’t be able to hold at the price.
$BICO is only $0.013–0.018 now, a small-cap infrastructure coin, highly correlated with BTC but all speculative capital. This kind of coin could have a 3–5x beta when BTC hits $100,000, roughly $0.04–0.06, and if the account abstraction theme warms up, pushing to $0.08 is also possible.
The basis is the old pattern: BTC leads → ETH follows → L1 → small infrastructure. History always goes like this. But the biggest mistake for newbies is treating beta as a certainty. If BTC really breaks $100,000 but with low volume and a fake breakout, these three might not even reach half of that. I’m just holding and waiting for a pullback, not daring to chase.A Personal Brief Analysis of $ZEC (Zcash)
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is only a personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please manage your risk when trading.
As a veteran privacy coin, ZEC's core moat is the zk-SNARK zero-knowledge proof technology, enabling optional private transactions. Users can choose between transparent transfers or shielded transfers, balancing compliance and privacy needs. It is also one of the earliest mainstream public chains to implement zero-knowledge cryptography. The total token supply is 210,000, consistent with Bitcoin's deflationary model, implying scarcity expectations.
The recent strengthening of ZEC's market is partly due to the global rise in demand for digital asset privacy. U.S. regulators have begun distinguishing between selective privacy and mandatory anonymous assets, bringing compliance expectations to ZEC. Additionally, institutional funds are starting to enter the privacy sector, combined with the deflationary effect after halving, significantly increasing capital attention.
However, risks should not be overlooked: first, the proportion of shielded transactions still has room to grow, as most users still use transparent transfers, indicating insufficient adoption of privacy features; second, privacy coins face long-term global regulatory pressure, with delisting from major exchanges and compliance restrictions being common; meanwhile, historically, ZEC has had strong speculative attributes, often experiencing sharp corrections after surges, earning the market nickname "Doomsday Vehicle," and showing strong negative correlation with Bitcoin, with funds tending to flow out after BTC stabilizes.
In the short term, ZEC's trend heavily depends on sentiment in the privacy sector and the implementation of regulatory policies. In the medium to long term, it depends on the actual deployment of the shielded ecosystem. For ordinary investors, this #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？
Seeing Anthropic reveal a $30 trillion TAM figure, my first reaction was a bit shocked 😳
Reports say it’s preparing to disclose to IPO investors that its addressable market size exceeds $30 trillion, a number even higher than the $28.5 trillion SpaceX cited at its IPO. But everyone must distinguish that this is the theoretical total potential demand, not the actual money that can be earned.
The company itself estimates 2028 revenue at only $190-200 billion, which accounts for just 0.6% of this huge market, creating a stark contrast.
With the IPO approaching, there are actually many controversies in the market. Can this $30 trillion pie truly cover real demands like enterprise software and knowledge work? Even if the market space is large enough, whether the model can differentiate itself, retain customers, and have pricing power is key to capturing real market share.
There’s also a very practical issue: the AI industry burns cash fiercely, with computing power and R&D costs remaining high. Even if the imagined market is enormous, whether it can ultimately convert into profit and positive cash flow, rather than just using a grand story to boost IPO valuation, is what I care about most.
With such a huge theoretical cake, do you think the story can come true? #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？
Recently, I came across news related to Anthropic's IPO and was genuinely shocked by this figure. Let me share my thoughts with you.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the total addressable market (TAM) that Anthropic plans to present to IPO investors exceeds $30 trillion, a number even higher than the $28.5 trillion valuation given by SpaceX at its listing.
However, it is important to distinguish that the $30 trillion is just a theoretical market ceiling, meaning the ideal revenue space if all potential demand is captured, not the company's actual revenue forecast. The company itself estimates revenue of only $190-200 billion by 2028, which is about 0.6% of the $30 trillion market. In other words, this is a highly speculative and optimistic projection.
With the IPO filing imminent, market controversy arises. Is such a massive market space reasonable? Can it truly cover the actual demand for enterprise software and various knowledge work, or is it simply a story crafted to boost valuation for the IPO?
Even if the market cake is large enough, capturing a meaningful share requires overcoming several real-world hurdles. The model's competitive differentiation, customer retention ability, and product pricing power—all these factors will determine how much real market share it can secure.Recently, crypto-related stock indices surged more than 5% in a single day, while Bitcoin experienced volatility and a pullback after reaching highs. This divergence indicates that Wall Street funds are shifting from speculation on single asset prices to a valuation recovery across the entire crypto industry chain and infrastructure. Over the five trading days ending August 25, related holding stocks and trading platform stocks achieved cumulative gains of approximately 33% and 23%, respectively. The U.S. long-term Treasury repurchase pushed yields and the dollar lower, combined with improved regulatory expectations, releasing valuation space for the entire industry. This cross-market linkage feature means that the risk appetite driven by improved macro liquidity is transmitting to deep infrastructure. As market attention shifts from pure token volatility to actual industry profits and network value, underlying sectors such as decentralized storage will usher in opportunities for revaluation. As a representative of the decentralized storage field, $FIL carries underlying network value that highly aligns with the logic of this round of infrastructure valuation recovery. With regulatory frameworks becoming clearer, institutional demand for compliant, scalable decentralized physical infrastructure networks will continue to be unleashed. The weakening dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields have injected new vitality into global liquidity, further lowering the discount rate for long-term tech assets. This helps enhance market evaluation of Filecoin's long-term storage ecosystem and data service value. Although crypto stocks, as a highly elastic sector, may still amplify pullbacks in the short term, the trend of funds spreading upstream along the industry chain has been established. Going forward, close attention is needed to Bitcoin's volatility at key junctures Did you panic yesterday?
Oil prices plummeted, gold surged, BTC jumped around — the whole screen was shouting "World War III is coming."
Then today I saw a set of data that stunned me for ten minutes.
In the past 30 days, over 500 ships passed through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz. Only 2% were attacked.
98% of the ships were safe.
Tell me, does this damn well count as a "supply cut risk"?
What is the market pricing in?
Not reality. The worst-case scenario.
A 2% attack rate is laughably low in any industry. But in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have been pushed up from over $80 by panic.
Why?
Because the market always pays for "what if," not pricing in the "most likely."
500 ships passed the strait, 98% were safe — but when oil prices rise, no one mentions this number. Everyone shouts "Iran is going to block the strait," "World War III is coming."
The speed of panic spreads 100 times faster than the truth.
What’s happening now?
Three signals, each more important than the "2% attack rate":
First, U.S. diplomats are returning.
Internal documents from the U.S. State Department show Washington is preparing to send back diplomats who had evacuated Middle East embassies due to the Iran conflict.
In plain language: The White House internally assesses there will be no full-scale war with Iran.
If you really thought war was coming, would they send diplomats back to be cannon fodder?
Second, Iran and Oman have provided a timetable.
A new permanent route will be finalized within 30 to 60 days. The temporary route only allows commercial ships; military vessels are prohibited.
What does this mean? At least for the next 60 days, geopolitical risk is not the main issue.
Third, the Biden administration has shifted.
From "military pressure" to "economic blockade."
The U.S. Treasury Secretary personally announced "economic isolation" sanctions on Iran, expanding to aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology sectors.
The conflict has switched from "hot war probability" to "sanctions game." The former is a destructive risk; the latter is chronic attrition.
What does this mean for crypto?
Short term: The safe-haven narrative is receding.
Geopolitical tail risks are decreasing, reducing safe-haven demand for gold and BTC. BTC briefly fell below $80,000. Funds that rushed in on the "World War III" narrative are retreating.
Medium term: The sanctions narrative is strengthening.
The U.S. is cutting off Iran’s economic lifelines comprehensively. Digital assets are now included in sanctions.
Sanctioned countries and individuals will seek financial infrastructure outside U.S. control.
Cryptocurrency is that option.
One factor is weakening safe-haven demand; the other is strengthening alternative financial demand.
Between one decrease and one increase, the net effect might be more optimistic than you think.
Were you scared by the "500 ships passing the strait" number?
Were you shocked by the truth of the "2% attack rate"?
If you were scared, it means you’re like 90% of the market — paying for emotion, not data.
This market never lacks panic. What it lacks are people calmly looking at data amid panic.
With a 2% attack rate, do you think the risk is high or overestimated?
$BTC $XAU $CL #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Oil prices have crashed, BTC surged to 80,000 then dropped again — I got 500 private messages asking why, so here’s my unified answer today
WTI crude oil fell more than 5% in one day, dropping below $80. The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen. Iran says a temporary route agreement has been reached. The US military says the mines have been cleared.
All good news.
So what?
BTC broke through $81,000 yesterday, hitting the highest since mid-May. Then it reversed and fell below $78,000. Now it’s hovering around $79,000.
"Oil prices have dropped this much, why isn’t BTC flying?"
"A ceasefire is about to be signed, where did the safe-haven funds go?"
"Is it time to short?"
My unified answer: Brother, you’ve got it backwards.
The market isn’t waiting for “good news” — it’s waiting for “good news to be finalized.”
What’s the difference?
Russian media say “the US and Iran have reached consensus on ceasefire terms.” Iran says “it won’t open immediately.” Trump is still making tough statements. US officials say “no negotiation arrangements yet.”
One says it’s signed, one says it’s not, one is bluffing, one is sabotaging.
This is not a certainty. It’s a mess.
Oil prices fell because the market is betting on a ceasefire. BTC isn’t rising because the market is waiting for the ceasefire to actually happen.
Betting and waiting are two different things.
What’s the biggest risk at this stage?
Not choosing the wrong direction. It’s running out of capital before the direction is clear.
How chaotic is the news now?
Trump says the mines are cleared. Iran says “if conditions and demands aren’t met, the strait will remain closed.” The US Treasury says it will launch “the largest fiscal offensive in history.” Iran says “it has its own ways to respond, including confrontation, escalation, and sanctions.”
Three completely different outcomes from the news on the same day.
You go long? If sanctions escalate, oil rebounds, and inflation worries return, BTC gets drained first.
You go short? If the ceasefire is really signed, risk appetite recovers, liquidity improves, BTC explodes upward.
Trading contracts at this stage is like running naked in a meat grinder of news.
My strategy is simple and straightforward —
First, keep 60% spot base holdings unchanged.
Has the mid-to-long-term logic changed?
Fed rate cuts are on the way. The US dollar’s credit is weakening. ETFs are flooding in — last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October last year. Institutions are coming back.
None of this has changed, so the base holdings stay put.
Second, keep 40% liquid funds waiting for one of two signals —
Signal A: BTC breaks through previous high resistance with volume.
If the ceasefire is really signed, sanctions really ease, and the market confirms “all bad news is priced in” — BTC holds above 82,000 with volume, add positions on the right side.
Signal B: BTC pulls back to key support.
If negotiations break down, sanctions intensify, inflation worries return — BTC drops to the 57,000-58,000 range, buy in batches on the left side.
Execute whichever signal comes first.
Before that — do nothing.
Finally, a harsh truth —
BTC rose 23% this week. Did you make money or lose?
If you chased above 80,000, you’re panicking now. If you shorted below 75,000, you’re panicking even more.
At this level, both longs and shorts are gambling. Gambling on news, emotions, and what Trump tweets next.
I’m not here to teach you how to trade crypto. I’m here to tell you: at this stage, staying alive is more important than making money.
Hold 60% spot base, keep 40% cash waiting. Add positions once the direction is clear.
$BTC $XAU $CL #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $ANTHROPIC Anthropic's $30 trillion story, even more hyped than SpaceX
Anthropic is preparing to paint a $30 trillion market opportunity for investors in its IPO documents. What does that mean? The combined revenue of 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 last year was only $2.4 trillion, and Anthropic is claiming 12 times that. SpaceX's $28.5 trillion claim back then was already heavily criticized, with Damodaran saying it "had already exceeded reasonable bounds."
What really matters is the 2028 revenue target—$190 to $200 billion. Annualized revenue was $47 billion in May and reached $65 billion in July. At this growth rate, it is indeed possible, but the three years in between hold too many uncertainties: compute costs, open-source competition, data center constraints—any one of these could stall growth.
This follows the same logic as previous AI earnings seasons—the market no longer focuses on how impressive revenue looks, but whether cash flow can sustain it. The target valuation is $2 trillion, with a $100 billion fundraising round, aiming for a listing as early as September or October. The $30 trillion story sounds great, but you have to survive until 2028 first. We'll see on opening day if the market buys into it. Just go for it, but be clear about what you're betting on. #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ @OKX星球 1. Market Overview As of midday August 26, BTC is priced at $79,200, having peaked at $81,268 during the day before retreating over 2,000 points; ETH is at $2,465, pressured below the previous high of $2,530. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation of contracts across the network reached $649 million, with the proportion of long position liquidations continuously rising, indicating that high-level chasing buying is now being concentratedly liquidated. 2. Core Data Timeline This Week Three major key events will occur intensively within three days, each layer transmitting market sentiment: 1. August 26, 20:30: US July Core PCE Price Index and Q2 GDP revision 2. August 27, 20:30: US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 3. August 28, 22:00: Initial Nonfarm Payroll Change + Jackson Hole Annual Conference Fed Chair Speech 3. Intrinsic Adjustment Logic of the Market The core momentum of this rally has faded, and the market itself has accumulated sufficient adjustment momentum: • Short squeeze momentum exhausted: The passive buying from the previous concentrated closing of $4 billion worth of short positions has basically ended, removing the strongest upward push • Profit-taking pressure accumulated: Short-term whales realized about $1.2 billion in profits over three days, transferring 53,000 BTC to exchanges, continuously releasing supply at high levels • Technical and sentiment peaks: Price has significantly deviated from short-term moving averages, with a clear bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart; the fear and greed index has surged into extreme greed, and incremental chasing funds are nearly depleted 4. Data Scenario Projection Macro data is only the trigger for adjustment and does not change the overall retracement direction, only affecting the pace: • Positive data: Delays the sell-off pace, causing the market to spike and induce buying,#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
This round of pushing to 80,000 was driven by three forces: liquidity recovery from U.S. Treasury repo operations, large net inflows into ETFs, and short squeeze. However, the short-term has already entered an overbought zone, and whether it can hold steady cannot be judged by just one big bullish candle.
The real logic behind the rise
1. The U.S. Treasury has increased long-term bond repos, causing long-term yields to decline and the dollar to weaken, which opens valuation space for risk assets. This macro foundation underpins the current rally.
2. Spot ETFs have returned to large net inflows, with institutional funds stepping in to absorb selling pressure, providing solid support on the spot side.
3. A large number of shorts have been forcibly liquidated, and passive buying has violently pushed prices up, but the short squeeze is a consumptive force and is unlikely to continue indefinitely.
Two possible scenarios for the market going forward
Scenario 1: Effectively hold above the 80,000 level
Conditions: ETF funds maintain continuous inflows, U.S. Treasury yields do not rebound, and selling pressure near 80,000 on pullbacks is limited. After holding steady, the upside target is the 82,000–83,000 resistance zone.
Scenario 2: False breakout followed by a pullback (quite probable)
80,000 is a strong psychological and technical resistance, with significant whale selling pressure above. Once short liquidation ends and ETF inflows slow down, without new long positions to take over, a spike and subsequent pullback is likely. Key support levels to watch are 76,000–78,000; if 74,000 is broken with high volume, the structure of this rebound will be directly compromised.A "small bull market" emerged in one week: $BTC surged to 80,000, $XRP rose 53%, $SOL up 35% — but the script seems to have returned to square one
Brothers, the crypto world this past week really felt like a sudden summer.
On August 17, BTC was barely moving sideways around $62,800; on August 19, a Treasury announcement lit the fuse; by August 25, the Asian session broke through $81,000 directly. In one week, BTC rose from 62,000 to 81,000, up nearly $19,000, marking the largest single-week gain since 2023 — measured in USD, this is the biggest weekly gain in Bitcoin's history.
But the script is familiar — it couldn’t hold above 81,000, and today (August 26) BTC has fallen back to around $78,300–78,900.
📊 Let’s first look at how strong the major coins were this week
Coin Weekly Gain Highest Reached
BTC ~24% $81,280
ETH ~30%-32% $2,587
SOL ~35% $103
XRP ~53% $1.52
Zcash ~66% $846
BTC rose 23.5% in one week, breaking above $79,000 and reclaiming the 200-day moving average. ETH rose 31.1% to $2,456, breaking $2,500 for the first time in 86 days. SOL gained nearly 8%, breaking $101, climbing from the $70 range to nearly $100 at one point. XRP surged 53.3% weekly. Zcash led with a 66% weekly gain. Altcoin market cap increased by about $215 billion in 3 days. The Fear & Greed Index soared to 82 (extreme greed).
🔥 Why the rise? Three driving forces
First, the Treasury's "balance sheet expansion" was the core trigger. On August 19, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced doubling the long-term Treasury buyback scale (from $2 billion to $4 billion), lowering long-term yields and weakening the dollar, reigniting the "devaluation trade" narrative — holding assets outside government control to hedge against currency depreciation risk.
Second, regulatory policies continued to send positive signals. On the same day, Trump met with crypto industry executives urging Congress to pass the "Clarity Act."
Third, short squeeze + ETF funds formed positive feedback. After BTC broke $70,000, a massive short squeeze was triggered; analysts estimate over $4 billion in crypto shorts were liquidated within two to three days. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $1.9 billion, with BTC and ETH spot ETFs combined inflows totaling $2.61 billion.
📉 Why the pullback?
The script is almost the same as before — a sharp rise is always followed by a correction.
Overbought signals are very obvious. Momentum indicator rose to 78, above 70 means price rose too fast and faces correction risk. The 4-hour RSI once surged above 90. Bitcoin faces significant selling pressure between $78,500 and $82,000.
Profit-taking surged. After rising over 20% in a week, short-term profits are huge. Some early profit holders cashed out, causing price pullback. Retail investors’ unrealized profit rate rose to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025. In the past 48 hours, BTC, ETH, and XRP inflows to centralized exchanges increased.
Catalyst vacuum period. After positive news, there is a lack of new catalysts. Currently, BTC is consolidating at a high level between $77,000 and $78,000.
🤔 What stage are we at now?
CryptoQuant analysts believe Bitcoin has exited the bear market and entered the early bull market phase — spot demand, ETF fund flows, and market momentum have turned positive and bullish. The "bullish score" index jumped from 30 to 80 in 7 days.
But the key test is at $83,000. This is where the 365-day moving average lies — if it holds, it could open space toward $82,000 to $87,000; if not, it’s another rally and fall.
Bigger variables this week: Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell’s first speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on Thursday — since 2022, BTC has always seen sharp volatility at this event — and the procedural vote on the "Clarity Act" on September 15. Each could be a decision point for the next direction.
💎 Summary
A 25% rise in one week, then a fall back — the crypto world is still the same, the script is still the same.
Those who FOMO chased the highs will likely be stopped out, and what really matters is not "how much it rose," but whether after the pullback it can hold and consolidate the bottom in the $75,000–$78,000 range. That is the key to judging whether this is a rebound or a reversal.
Discuss in the comments: where do you think this pullback will go? Is it a chance to get in or a trend reversal? #
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The above content is only market information compilation and personal opinion sharing, not any investment advice. Trading involves risks; decisions should be made cautiously.$SNDK short on rebound: Enter at 1553, exit at 1468, precisely capturing an $85 drop
News: Good news exhausted turns bad
On August 13, SanDisk Investor Day released major positive news, with the stock soaring nearly 14% to $1528.
But behind the shine lies hidden concerns: Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance of $10.3-10.8 billion, far below the market expectation of $11.16 billion.
Citibank and Wells Fargo both downgraded their target prices. On August 19, the five major memory stocks collectively plunged, with SNDK plummeting 9% in a single day — confirming the logic of good news being priced in.
Positioning basis: Triple short resonance
1. Technically, $1550 is a key resistance level; the rebound near 1553 shows volume divergence, a "dead cat bounce" style pullback, with a breakdown target directly pointing to 1420-1450.
2. Fundamentally, TrendForce data shows the NAND supply-demand gap in 2026 is only -4% to -5%, and supply growth in the second half of 2027 will exceed AI demand growth.
3. Capital-wise, Renaissance Technologies cut holdings by over 99% in Q2, and David Tepper liquidated 280,000 shares — smart money has long exited.
Perfect finish
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Anthropic has valued the total global knowledge labor market at $30 trillion, releasing a highly compelling macro narrative on the eve of its IPO sprinting toward a $2 trillion valuation.
Reported Q2 revenue reached $11.5 billion with adjusted operating profit turning positive for the first time, but a net loss of about $42 billion in 2025 still reveals the heavy burden of computing power expenses.
Expectations for a hundred-billion-dollar-level public fundraising are triggering concerns in the secondary market about liquidity siphoning, with capital rebalancing positions between tech growth stocks and cross-market risk assets.
Whether revenue doubling and operating profit improvement can offset the liquidity tightening caused by massive financing depends on the retention quality of enterprise workflow replacements in actual renewals; the causal relationship between the two remains to be confirmed.
If $ANTHROPIC’s enterprise client retention steadily boosts annualized revenue and confirms a positive cash flow cycle, the spillover risk appetite will drive a valuation recovery in risk assets; if retention falls below a critical point, this path fails.
If knowledge substitution cannot cover computing power expenses and the hundred-billion-dollar fundraising significantly drains market liquidity, the valuation midpoint will face compression, and an interruption in profit improvement momentum is a clear sign of weakening.
Market divergence on the grand narrative centers on the true penetration rate of labor budget replacement; as soon as there are signs of core clients cutting AI procurement budgets, the valuation model will be quickly falsified.
One of the most important variables to watch in the future is whether the actual renewal retention rate on the enterprise side can support growth expectations beyond $65 billion in annualized revenue.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？ETH IS QUIETLY CLOSING THE GAP
The interesting part isn’t simply that ETF flows are still positive — it’s the share of new capital. On Aug. 25, BTC ETFs attracted +$29.95M, while ETH ETFs brought in +$25.75M — nearly the same, even though cumulative BTC ETF inflows remain far larger at $54.07B vs. $12.29B.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM Woke up and checked the data, almost thought I was seeing things—337 million in a single day. The inflow speed of BTC ETF is no longer just "buy, buy, buy," it's outright scooping up.
What's even more astonishing is that this has been going on for six consecutive days, totaling 2.26 billion USD. What does that mean? Many small countries don't even have that much in foreign exchange reserves. Led by BlackRock and Fidelity, most of the money is flowing in from them. What does that indicate? This isn't retail investors rushing in; it's serious institutions making moves. Pension funds, hedge funds, family offices, these kinds of players are systematically pushing their positions higher.
ETH isn't lagging behind either, with ETFs bringing in 115 million in a single day, and weekly inflows hitting a 10-month high. Previously, many thought ETH was just a "sidekick" in the eyes of institutions, but now it seems funds are overflowing from BTC to ETH, possibly lighting the fuse for altcoin season.
The logic is actually quite straightforward—when prices drop, there are buyers willing to catch the fall, and they're doing it with conviction. This is confidence. Doing this for six days straight doesn't look like short-term speculation; it looks like position planning. So the strategy is simple: a pullback is not a reason to panic, but rather a window to get on board. As long as the 78,000 level holds, I'm personally inclined to try a bit. Direction is more important than effort, and the direction of funds is already clear here.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ 1. Three Major Upcoming Core Data Windows In chronological order, this week will see three major turning points, with sentiment amplifying volatility layer by layer: 1. August 26, 20:30: US July Core PCE Price Index + Q2 GDP Revision (the Fed's most watched inflation indicator, directly affecting rate hike expectations) 2. August 27, 20:30: US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (weekly high-frequency employment indicator, previous value 206,000, expected 209,000) 3. August 28, 22:00: US Nonfarm Payroll Benchmark Change Preliminary + Jackson Hole Annual Fed Chair Speech (annual employment data revision + policy tone, two major signals resonating) 2. The Pullback Is Inevitable for the Market Itself Data Is Just the Fuse Macro data only provides funds with a trading excuse and cannot change the fundamental fact that short-term overbought conditions need correction: 1. Short squeeze momentum has been exhausted: The concentrated short covering of $4 billion that drove the rapid rally has basically ended, passive buying has disappeared, and the remaining high positions are all profit-taking pressure. 2. Massive profit-taking accumulation: Short-term holders (whales) realized about $1.2 billion in profits within 3 days, setting a record; about 53,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges, the highest since June, with continuous supply release at high levels. 3. Technicals severely overbought: Price deviation from short-term moving averages hit a new high this year, 4-hour level bearish divergence is clear, historically after such a sharp rise, price must revert to the moving average for correction. 4. Sentiment has reached an extreme: CoinMa#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
There is a new development in the US-Iran situation.
The sanctions have officially been implemented. As a result, oil prices dropped immediately. More importantly—while sanctions are being imposed, negotiations are also progressing simultaneously. Qatar is acting as the mediator, and Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary navigation route through the Strait of Hormuz, with concrete arrangements likely to be made soon.
Two things are happening at the same time: sanctions on one side and navigation talks on the other. One pushes oil prices up, the other pushes them down, and the result was a drop first. The market is also waiting to see whether these sanctions can be effectively enforced and whether third countries will cooperate, which is the key.
For the crypto community, the short-term impact has already been priced into oil prices. The sanctions did not cause oil prices to surge, and inflation expectations have cooled in the short term, providing a breather for risk assets. Bitcoin breaking through 80000 is somewhat related to this news; the sanctions have landed, oil prices did not explode, and the market has breathed a sigh of relief.
However, the inclusion of digital assets in secondary sanctions is a new variable. Previously, sanctions mainly targeted traditional finance, but now on-chain settlements are also under scrutiny. How this will play out in the medium term depends on whether third countries cooperate.
Here is my view: this round of sanctions is a short-term positive that has been fully priced in and is now undergoing a pullback. The medium to long term depends on the enforcement strength and how Iran retaliates. Bitcoin is hovering around 80000 now; the sanctions landing did not trigger an oil price surge, so short-term sentiment is relatively stable.
But medium-term uncertainty remains, and the real turning point will be the CLARITY Act vote on September 15.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be realized?
Where exactly is the endpoint of AI companies' grand promises?
How is the $30 trillion calculation made?
The global white-collar salaries plus enterprise software spending roughly match this scale. Anthropic means that any work done sitting in front of a computer can theoretically be replaced by AI. It’s not saying it can earn $30 trillion itself, but it’s pricing the total global knowledge labor market.
Behind the sky-high narrative
▶️ Grabbing enterprise labor budgets
Unlike OpenAI focusing on the consumer side, Anthropic targets B2B replacing human labor, directly aiming at the core labor costs of enterprises.
▶️ Burning money to buy computing power as insurance
With a theoretical ceiling of $30 trillion, spending tens of billions this year on computing power makes sense in the financial model.
▶️ Redefining SaaS pricing
If the charging model shifts from per-user software sales to commissions based on how much labor is replaced, the traditional SaaS giants’ market share will be completely rewritten.
Next directions
▶️ Prospectus trimming the hype
The secondary market ultimately looks at actual revenue and customer retention; the $30 trillion is just hype to boost momentum.
▶️ Accelerated rollout of Agent applications: To support this narrative, competition around enterprise workflows and automation Agents will explode.
▶️ Capital accelerating concentration at the top
After giants raise the barriers, valuations of small and medium AI startups lacking commercial closed loops will face severe compression.
Do you think enterprises will really hand over 30% of their labor budgets to AI in the future?
DYOR [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh: The US is wielding the big stick to enforce "economic isolation," and Iran counters by playing the Strait card. Has Bitcoin already fallen below 80,000?
Treasury Secretary Bassett announced new "economic isolation" sanctions against Iran, expanding to five major sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities and individuals blacklisted. Even the CEO of Iran's largest exchange Nobitex is targeted, directly striking the crypto community.
Iran is verbally tough. The Supreme Leader's advisor responded that Iran will be "more resolute than ever," and the Deputy Foreign Minister clearly listed the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz—completely ending the Lebanon front, lifting the blockade, and resolving the Yemen issue. The message is straightforward: Want me to open the Strait? Settle all the accounts first.
But there is some progress on the Strait. Iran and Oman announced the establishment of a temporary joint shipping corridor and will cooperate on mine clearance. However, Iran added: "This does not mean immediate opening," the US must first accept Iran's conditions.
The impact on Bitcoin is twofold. In the short term, sanctions on digital assets actually strengthen BTC's narrative as a non-sovereign asset; the harsher the sanctions on Iran, the greater the demand to use BTC to bypass the dollar system. In the medium term, the Strait's reopening would be a major positive.
News is good news, but implementation is the real benefit. Pharaoh's usual advice: good trades are to be waited for, not chased.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 The recent strong performance of ZEC and HYPE has given many investors a familiar sense of a bull market, but internal market divergence has quietly emerged. While BTC and ETH steadily raise the market focus, these two previously leading tokens have failed to keep pace. This "falling behind" itself is a signal worth watching, possibly facing technical pullback pressure in the short term. Let's first look at ZEC's rising logic. The NYSE's approval of Grayscale's Zcash ETF listing essentially opened a compliant entry point for traditional capital, undoubtedly a direct catalyst driving prices higher. But it is important to calmly consider that gaining access does not mean capital will flow in immediately. The actual trading volume and net inflows at the initial launch of an ETF are the only measures to verify institutional demand; before the data is clear, price excitement may outpace fundamentals. HYPE's rally, on the other hand, is more driven by news. Trump publicly stated that the CFTC is working hard to promote Hyperliquid's entry into the U.S. market in a fully legal and compliant manner, a statement that quickly ignited market sentiment. In the long run, if it is realized, it would undoubtedly be a major positive for the project ecosystem; But the problem is that such statements are still verbal, with a long way to go before actual regulatory approval, and the fluctuating policy direction means uncertainty has not truly been eliminated. Overall, the rise of these two tokens is based more on expectations rather than on the facts#Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled?
Anthropic is telling its story again, which might just be a stress test
Anthropic has directly hyped the AI story to over $3 trillion. What we need to see clearly is: this is the TAM (total addressable market), not the company's revenue. More interestingly, Anthropic's current annualized revenue has exceeded $65 billion, up from $47 billion in May, and it expects to reach $190–200 billion in revenue by 2028.
If valued at about $2 trillion for the IPO, the market is already trading ahead on the future of "AI infrastructure + enterprise software supergiant." In the short term, you can watch $NVDA, $AMZN, and other AI chains, but don't be scared into going all-in by the $3 trillion figure—the biggest role of TAM is often storytelling; what really determines valuation are revenue, profit, and cash flow. This IPO by Anthropic might just be a large stress test for the next AI bubble.Long-term and medium-term trend analysis in the crypto market: #$BTC $ETH $SOL
U.S. debt has already surpassed 40 trillion, with an annual upward trend. The U.S. government's solution is to use tariffs and $ printing of dollars to cope with the high interest expenses.
But the consequence is intensified de-dollarization by various countries, triggering domestic inflation risks in the U.S., leaving no room for interest rate cuts; if interest rate cuts are used directly to ease the huge debt pressure, it will further drive inflation, ultimately leading to rate hikes and accelerating the de-dollarization process.
Therefore, I personally believe the crypto market will remain in a bear market for the foreseeable future, and the bull market is still far off!! This rebound is merely a phase of capital returning from U.S. debt! Unless there is a U.S. debt collapse or credit default within 3 years, only then will it be the springtime for gold and the crypto market! #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ @天才交易员绿毛 @OKX星球 @天才少女秋秋 On August 24, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent announced a new round of "economic isolation" sanctions against Iran. The scope of sanctions has expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 Iran-related entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list. Bescent threatened to cut off Iran's "entire economic lifeline." Iran's response is more resolute than ever. Iranian President Pezehiziyan stated that relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process. Supreme Leader advisor Mukhber bluntly stated that Iran's response to U.S. threats will be more resolute than ever before. But on the same day, negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz progressed simultaneously. On August 25, Omani Foreign Minister Badr visited Iran and held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Alagazi. Both sides issued a joint statement proposing to establish a temporary joint shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz and carry out mine-clearing operations along the waterway. Bader said that specific arrangements for temporary waterways and the resumption of safe navigation are expected to be announced soon. Two things happening simultaneously is no coincidence. Iran's strongest card is the Strait of Hormuz—thousands of mines and anti-ship missiles cover the entire strait. The U.S. is ramping up sanctions, and Iran is using the Strait negotiations to offset the issue. But Iran has also drawn a red line: the prerequisites for reopening the strait include a complete end to hostilities, lifting the blockade, and properly resolving the Yemen issue. The U.S. must fully fulfill all previous commitments it has failed to fulfill. As long as the U.S. does not meet these conditions, the straits will not truly reopen. What does this mean for oil prices and the pie? News of temporary shipping routes has put pressure on oil prices, but escalating sanctions are supporting oil pricesMonday's memory chip sell-off looked brutal.
A day later, tech stocks have started to rebound.
Nasdaq +0.66%
$NVDA +2.2%
$AMD +4.9%
$MU and semiconductor stocks have recovered some losses.
My view hasn't changed:
This sell-off is likely more about position adjustments and valuations rather than a sudden halt in AI infrastructure demand.
But one rebound proves nothing.
The real test is ahead:
Nvidia's earnings report.
I'm watching three things:
• AI infrastructure demand
• The linkage effect between memory and networking equipment
• Whether capital expenditures are strong enough to support upstream bottlenecks
If Nvidia confirms sustained demand while memory stocks remain weak, that divergence becomes interesting.
If guidance is weak, the argument has to change.
This is exactly the difference between following price and following evidence. #NVIDIA持有SpaceX约210亿美元，AI协同受关注 $SKHYNIX's shocking top escape! Smart money just fled and immediately placed low-price buy orders, is SK Hynix about to pull back?
The bull market is not short of stories, but it lacks understanding of how smart money plays.
SKHYNIX is now at 1226, technical indicators show the upward momentum is a bit tired.
The news is indeed bullish: South Korea's DRAM export prices have quadrupled in a year, and Hynix says shortages will be the worst in history by 2027. But the market action feels off.
Yesterday, a smart money big player precisely took profit at 1210, closing 26,600 long contracts and making 1.95 million before leaving. The funny thing is, he immediately placed 100 buy orders between 1030-1060, waiting to buy back at a low price. What does this indicate? The current 1226 is definitely not the long-term entry price recognized by them.
Looking at both bulls and bears: bulls' average cost is 1167 with unrealized gains of 4.53 million; bears' cost is 1183 with unrealized losses of 2.98 million. Bulls have more paper profits but clearly lack the strength to push higher.
In terms of strategy: conservative players enter long positions around 1201, short positions around 1250, while aggressive fans are entering long now.
Long-term outlook is optimistic, but in the short term, smart money is selling high and buying low; chasing the highs means taking the risk of being the bag holder. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Apple is testing the suppression of the Chinese chip supply chain, impacting the long-term performance expectations of $SNDK. Combined with profit-taking pressure in the AI sector, the stock price is defending and battling within the 1400 to 1600 range.
After dropping from a high of 1600 to a low of 1418, it rebounded to around 1470, but the bullish rebound lacks mainline capital support. Technically, the daily closing price has repeatedly fallen below the 50-day moving average, reflecting institutional bulls' risk-averse repositioning ahead of Nvidia's earnings report.
Apple is conducting domestic substitution tests and preliminary supply negotiations for DRAM and NAND chips, posing a structural threat to the storage giant's market share in China. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations boosting the dollar and suppressing overall risk appetite, sensitivity to negative fundamentals has significantly increased.
In the downside scenario, if Apple officially confirms the introduction of domestic storage components or the stock price breaks below the critical 1400 support level, it will trigger algorithmic short selling and stop-loss orders. Falling below 1400 means the current defense structure fails, and the market will directly test liquidity willingness to buy at 1300 and lower levels.
In the upside scenario, if the supply chain tests fail or official clarifications emerge, and AI infrastructure demand continues to release, short covering could push the stock price upward for recovery. If volume increases and the price stabilizes above the 1600 resistance ceiling, previously established short positions will face a squeeze risk.
A short-term rebound breaking through 1600 will signal a pause in the current downward logic, while breaking below 1400 support will confirm further downside expansion by shorts.
In the next 7 days, close attention should be paid to substantive progress in Apple's supply chain negotiations and the buying strength near the 1400 level.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期$BTC The four-year cycle is changing.
In the first two rounds: bull market lasted 1065 days, bear market 365 days, down to the second.
This time the bear market only lasted 273 days, three full months shorter.
Is the cycle shortening, or is this round not really a bear market?
I'm thinking about one question: if the pattern has changed, those waiting for the bottom using the old pattern might never get it.
I'm not saying there won't be a correction, but the obsession with "it must fall for a full year" should be let go. The short-term trading logic of $BTC is no longer the same as in the early days. There used to be "breakout chasing" and "support-resistance flip," but now such right-side trading strategies (entering as soon as a clear signal appears) have significantly lower success rates.
Instead, the left-side position-building strategy in the "liquidity hunting" zones is more effective in the current cycle. Because BTC's volatility is not as high as before, if you can't predict the range-bound area, the profit margin is already very limited when a definite signal appears.
My current plan is to place limit orders to add long contracts above these potential spike prices: $BTC 75000, $ETH 2350, $SOL 90, while simultaneously selling puts at these strike prices to earn some premium during the waiting period. Whether I get filled or not, I'm happy either way.
Subjectively, I have fully entered a bull market trading system.bitcoin isn’t replacing gold — it’s capturing gold’s “growth” side
$XAUT remains around $4,644,quietly fulfilling its role as a safe haven.But $BTC at $78.9K tells a different story: over the past 7 and 30 days,Bitcoin has risen noticeably faster
It’s not that gold is weakening.It’s simply that when liquidity risk-on sentiment return,BTC reacts more strongly.
Gold is like a safe.Bitcoin is like a growth engine built on the same“scarce asset” narrative
Greater upside — but also greater volatilityBTC reclaiming $80K matters, but SOL leading the move says this is more than a defensive bid. My read is that risk appetite is broadening, while ETH holding above $2,500 keeps the rally structurally credible rather than purely speculative.
The next test is persistence. With oil falling and Treasury liquidity back in focus, macro conditions are less hostile, but a strong 24-hour move still needs follow-through. I would treat $80K as a support test, not a victory lap.
Not advice, just analysis.#Bitcoin ETF data for Monday is out, showing a single-day net inflow of $337.6 million. Counting the five trading days last Friday, this marks six consecutive days of net inflows.
More importantly, the single-day net inflow has remained within the $300-500 million range, indicating that ETF net inflows have not weakened this week and continue to maintain stable net inflows.
Among them, IBIT's net inflow proportion dropped from 77.8% last Friday to 61.9%, while FBTC's net inflow share increased by 31%. This means ETF net inflows are no longer relying on a single source, and market buying sentiment is spreading.
Crypto market data: compared to Monday
1. The BTC pullback led to a synchronous decrease in ETH's share, but altcoin share did not see a significant drop, clearly showing that the current pullback has not put the market into a panic phase.
2. Trading volume increased again compared to Monday, with no significant difference in BTC and ETH trading volumes, while altcoin trading volume slightly increased.
3. Total funds increased by $200 million, with USDT net inflow only $14 million, while USDC net inflow reached $166 million. Funds from the US region have returned to a net inflow phase.
Summary of today's data:
ETF data and crypto market fund net inflows still maintain a healthy state, further confirming that BTC's rebound trend has not ended. However, ETF T+1 has a lag, so we need to wait until tomorrow to see Tuesday's net inflow. After all, $BTC experienced a pullback on Tuesday, and we need to see if the pullback causes ETF net inflow data to weaken.
Regarding crypto market funds, whether in terms of share, trading volume, or fund flow, the situation remains healthy, which is a pretty good data point!$BTC & $ETH :IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell sharply in June, rallied through summer, then made a final move toward $16K before the cycle bottomed. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has surged back above $80K, while $ETH has recovered toward $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2B in weekly inflows, while ETF activity has also strengthened around Ethereum.
Is this a genuine cycle bottom—or another powerful relief rally$ETH IS QUIETLY CLOSING THE GAP
The interesting part isn’t simply that ETF flows are still positive — it’s the share of new capital. On Aug. 25, $BTC ETFs attracted +$29.95M, while $ETH ETFs brought in +$25.75M — nearly the same, even though cumulative BTC ETF inflows remain far larger at $54.07B vs. $12.29B.
New capital is being allocated more evenly between BTC and ETH. If this continues, ETH could become the bridge for the next rotation into altcoins.Interest Rate Cut Expectation Pricing Gap: BTC Earns Certainty, ETH Overdraws Sentiment Account
In August, the crypto market rebounded from an oversold state into a policy window period. After BTC broke through the $80,000 mark, it pulled back to around $79,000, while ETH surged to $2,530 before retreating to about $2,450. Although the rise and fall appear synchronized, the pricing efficiency and safety margin of the two regarding the Fed's rate cut expectations have long been worlds apart. BTC prices rise moderately, step by step pricing in fundamental recovery, while ETH uses extreme elasticity to quickly overdraw sentiment expectations. This pricing gap represents the biggest opportunity and trap before the Jackson Hole Symposium.
BTC's trend closely follows the "institutional cost line," with restrained and solid pricing, earning money from certainty. Since August, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs has exceeded $2.07 billion, setting a monthly high for 2026 so far, with top institutions like BlackRock entering the market. This capital targets medium- to long-term allocation rather than short-term arbitrage. On the chart, this shows as a typical "bottom position lifting" rise: $76,000-$78,000 is the core cost band for institutional accumulation this round, with each pullback quickly supported; the rapid retreat after breaking $80,000 essentially represents concentrated relief of historical trapped positions between $78,000-$82,000. Institutional funds absorb selling pressure amid fluctuations, steadily raising the market's average holding cost.
More importantly, BTC's price does not excessively overdraw rate cut expectations. The market currently prices about a 69% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, and about 60% expectation of a rate cut in Q4. BTC's price basically matches this neutral expectation without prematurely factoring in extreme easing assumptions. This means even if the Jackson Hole meeting turns hawkish, the pullback space is firmly limited by the institutional cost line, providing ample safety margin. On-chain data confirms this: in the past two weeks, over 13,000 BTC have been net withdrawn from exchanges, with whales continuously moving coins to cold storage, shrinking circulating supply and solidifying bottom support from the supply side.
ETH's trend, however, follows the "sentiment leverage line," with optimistic and aggressive pricing, earning money from elasticity. The solid fundamental support is undeniable: total staked ETH exceeds 41.89 million, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, a new all-time high, with over one-third of circulating supply locked long-term, sealing off deep downside from the supply side. But supply contraction only supports the price floor and cannot drive this round's over 30% rally—the core driver pushing prices up is the sentiment fermentation fueled by the AI+Crypto narrative and the early overdrawing of rate cut expectations.
The funding gap best illustrates the difference in pricing reality: since August, ETH ETF net inflows are only about one-third of BTC's, with over 70% of the increase coming from a single BlackRock product, lacking systemic industry-wide accumulation support. More upward momentum comes from the derivatives market; during this rebound, ETH perpetual contract open interest fluctuated wildly, funding rates once surged to 0.08%, with short-term leveraged funds clustering, amplifying upward elasticity but also overdrawing future gains prematurely. ETH's current price already factors in more optimistic rate cut expectations than BTC. If policy disappoints, sentiment will retreat faster than BTC, and the correction will be more severe.
The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium will be the key test for this pricing gap. Under the baseline scenario, new Fed Chair Wash maintains a neutral stance without clear rate cut guidance; BTC will continue to oscillate between $77,000-$81,000, gradually digesting trapped position pressure; ETH will fluctuate widely between $2,400-$2,550, with sentiment-driven trading dominating the pace. In an optimistic scenario, a dovish signal hints at a Q4 rate cut path; BTC is expected to steadily break through $81,000 resistance and push toward $85,000; ETH may pulse higher on sentiment, challenging the $2,650-$2,700 range. In a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance triggers a pullback; BTC has institutional cost line support, likely limiting the correction to within 5%, with strong support at $75,000; ETH may face concentrated leveraged liquidations, with a correction likely exceeding 8%, testing short-term support at $2,380.
Overall, BTC earns money from fundamental recovery, with restrained pricing and high safety margin, suitable for medium-term allocation strategies; pullbacks to $77,000-$78,000 can be bought in batches. ETH earns money from sentiment trading, highly elastic but volatile, suitable for swing trading; partial profit-taking above $2,550 is advised without blindly chasing highs. During the policy window, don't make quick money from sentiment and lose the certainty of long-term gains $BTC $ETH $DOGE Starlink BTC 0826 Today's Strategy｜Consolidation with a Bearish Bias
Direction: Bearish
Entry: 78000–78300
Stop Loss: 77500
Target: 79000–79400, if broken then look at 80000
BTC surged to 81270 last night then pulled back, now consolidating again around 78000.
Currently, I still lean bearish, but I don't expect a strong one-sided move during the day; more likely to consolidate first, then choose a direction.
So at the current price around 78700, I won't chase; the space above and below this level is uncomfortable.
If it returns to 78000–78300, I will consider light bearish positions.
If 77500 is broken, this idea is directly invalidated.
No need to rush during the day.
If you have a position, hold it; if not, wait.
Still bearish on BTC, but won't aggressively open positions in the middle range. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 8.26 Crypto Market Planet Daily
Good morning, brothers.
Yesterday the crypto market finally showed some momentum. BTC surged past $80,000, reaching a high of over 81,000, marking a three-month high. The whole network was cheering “the bull is back,” but after a night, this morning the price retreated back to around 78,500-79,000. Classic "pump and dump."
Current positions of major coins (morning of August 26):
• BTC: 78,500 – 79,000 range, slight 24h pullback, weekly up about +22%
• ETH: 2,440 – 2,460, weekly +28%
• SOL: 96 – 98, weekly +26%
• XRP: 1.43 – 1.46, still the strongest weekly gain, nearly +47%
• BNB: 690 – 700
• HYPE: around 80, relatively resilient
Total market cap roughly 2.65-2.7 trillion USD, BTC dominance back near 59%.
Core logic behind this rebound:
The real spark came from the US Treasury’s announcement last week to double the long-term Treasury buyback quota to $4 billion each time. The market interpreted this as "liquidity warming + USD depreciation hedge trade" restarting. Gold and crypto rose together, shorts were liquidated in a chain reaction, with last week’s short squeeze volume being quite exaggerated.
Combined with continuous net inflows into spot BTC ETFs (over $2 billion since August 17), institutional funds are indeed flowing back. Expectations around the Clarity Act legislation and Trump’s stance on crypto also provided emotional support.
XRP and SOL led this rally, clearly showing signs of "high elasticity catch-up," especially XRP’s weekly gain close to 50%, a typical capital rotation among groups.
What to watch today?
The most awkward position is the round number resistance at 80,000.
After yesterday’s surge failed to hold above it, today’s high open and low close clearly show profit-taking. Technically, short-term overbought conditions exist (some momentum indicators are already high), plus tonight’s US core PCE and GDP revision data, so the market choosing to wait and see is reasonable.
Key supports to watch:
• First support: 77,500 – 78,000
• Strong support: 75,000 – 76,000
If BTC can stabilize above 78,000 and break through 80,000 with volume and hold, this rebound will have real continuation potential, targeting 82,000-85,000.
If it falls below 77,000 directly, a short-term shakeout may occur again.
Personal view (not investment advice):
This rebound is of better quality than previous ones: real ETF funds, macro liquidity narrative, forced short covering—not just air.
But don’t get carried away by the weekly gains. From 60,000+ to 80,000 in one go is a big jump. What’s needed now is to digest profit-taking and confirm support. True bull market confirmation requires BTC to firmly hold above 80,000 and effectively break previous highs, while altcoins genuinely rotate, not just a few leaders performing.
Today’s suggestions:
• Those heavily invested can consider trimming positions to lock in profits
• Those without positions should not rush to chase highs; wait for pullback and support confirmation
• Avoid heavy bets on breakouts; daily volatility around data releases can be significant
Keep watching ETF fund flows and macro data reactions. I will update if there are new developments.
Stay steady, don’t panic.