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BMO Capital Markets analyst Harsh Kumar initiated coverage on Broadcom with an "Outperform" rating and set a target price of $455. BMO positions Broadcom as the world's second-largest AI chip supplier after Nvidia and reveals its core business logic of leveraging Wall Street capital to secure tens of billions in AI orders. From "selling chips" to "buying computing power": Private credit restructures AI capital expenditure. Broadcom is collaborating with top private equity firms like Blackstone and Apollo to negotiate raising $60 billion to $100 billion in debt financing to fund AI model giants like Anthropic in purchasing their customized chips and infrastructure. Breaking the cash flow bottleneck: Large model startups like Anthropic have extremely high computing power demands but lack the ability to prepay massive capital expenditures. Closed-loop financial ecosystem: As an initiator and guarantor, Broadcom introduces private credit into the chain, achieving a closed loop of "financial institutions provide funds — customers obtain computing power — Broadcom secures hardware orders," directly converting future demand constrained by funding into confirmed current balance sheet revenue. Customized ASIC + high-speed network: Building the second pole of AI infrastructure. Against the backdrop of Nvidia dominating the market with general-purpose GPUs (H100/B200), Broadcom firmly holds the global second position with the following two major barriers: Master of customized ASICs (XPU): deeply integrated Go存储板块的夜，比想象中更安静。不是死寂，是那种把所有躁动都压进地底、等待某个引爆点的沉默。 你有没有过一种感觉，盯着盘面越久，越分不清自己是在等待机会，还是在等待一个让自己放弃的理由？ 我最近翻存储标的，发现它们集体进入了一种"跌不深、涨不动"的微妙平衡。SanDisk、Micron、Hynix 的走势像被同一根线牵着，短线波幅明显受制于市场情绪和资金面的拉扯，但底层逻辑——AI 算力扩张、HBM 需求曲线、存储周期复苏的叙事——其实一根都没断。 这个阶段真正考验人的不是判断力，是耐性。横盘久了，人会开始怀疑自己当初相信的东西是不是幻觉。我经历过太多次这种时刻，每次都是在大家几乎要松手的时候，临界点就来了。催化剂可能是某份超预期的财报，可能是技术路线上的意外突破，也可能是宏观层面突然吹来一阵暖风，然后行情就顺着惯性走好几个月。 当然，黑天鹅从来不会提前打招呼。但就当前的基本面组合来看，我觉得那种级别的风险概率并不高。我越来越倾向于相信那个"金发男人"的风格——每到关键节点，总能画出新的想象空间让市场继续往前跑。 现在的问题根本不是看多还是看空，而是谁能在这种无聊里坐得住。跨市场联动来看If holding 1 million U, my BTC judgment for the next 30 days is: it will fluctuate in the 72500‑84800 range, with a high probability of a surge testing new highs, but the risk of a downward pullback cannot be ignored.
Core reason: This wave has retaken 80,000. From the liquidation map, a large part was pushed up by contract short squeezes. There is a lot of liquidation liquidity stacked on both sides, so the long-short oscillation will be intense, making it difficult to have a one-sided market. The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations are fluctuating. Subsequent CPI and non-farm payroll data releases will disturb the overall market risk appetite. Institutional ETF funds are intermittent, with no sustained large spot inflows to support the bottom. Additionally, small-cap coins are rotating fiercely now; many coins have OI ratios to market cap very high, and after rising, they tend to fall quickly, indirectly affecting the diversion of large-cap funds.
Key levels or expected range: I think BTC will fluctuate in the 72500‑84800 range in the next 30 days. Strong support below: 72500. Near this level, short squeeze profit-taking will lead to massive liquidations, and there will be buy orders to support. Under extreme sentiment, there is a probability of a brief spike to 70000. First resistance: 81500, with obvious selling pressure after multiple attempts; only by holding above will it break through the upper resistance. Strong resistance above: 84800, where a large amount of trapped positions and upper short liquidation zones accumulate, creating very strong pressure when reaching here.
#OKX百万规划师
#OKX星球话题来啦 Strength Differentiation in the Policy Window: BTC Supported by Capital, ETH Sustained by Sentiment
The oversold rebound in the crypto market in August has reached a critical juncture. BTC intraday once surged to $81,257, a new high since May, then retraced to around $79,000 and fluctuated; ETH simultaneously peaked at $2,530 before falling back to around $2,460, with daily volatility significantly greater than BTC. Behind the seemingly synchronized rise and fall, the underlying logic of the two leading tokens' market trends has long diverged: BTC's rise is built on real institutional capital, following a portfolio recovery path; ETH's rally is supported by supply floor and amplified by sentiment leverage, following an elastic game path. As the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting approaches, the uncertainty in the policy window is amplifying this divergence, gradually revealing whose support is more solid and whose bubble is more apparent.
BTC's market foundation is the continuous inflow of institutional funds, with every step up having real backing. On the capital side, the US spot BTC ETF has recorded net inflows for six consecutive trading days, accumulating $2.26 billion, with August's cumulative net inflow surpassing $2.07 billion, exceeding the monthly record set in April 2026 so far. The highest weekly inflow reached $1.92 billion, setting a nearly 10-month record. BlackRock's IBIT single product contributed over 60% of the increment, showing a very distinct feature of concentrated buying by leading institutions. Unlike retail short-term funds chasing highs and lows, these institutional funds aim for medium- to long-term asset allocation, with large amounts settling as base positions, directly forming a core cost support band at $76,000-$78,000, where every price dip is quickly supported by buy orders.
On-chain data further solidifies this support. In the past 7 days, the entire network's exchange BTC net outflow totaled 2,721 coins, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking, reducing the circulating active supply. This means selling pressure has not increased with price rises but has gradually eased as coins shift to long-term holders. The previously widespread market concern about the $78,000-$82,000 trapped positions is also being gradually digested amid ongoing fluctuations. Overall, BTC's pricing is restrained and solid, with prices basically matching the current neutral policy expectations, without overextending bullish factors, providing ample safety margin.
ETH's market shows a layered characteristic of "solid bottom, fragile upper layer." The bottom support is indeed strong: as of late August, Ethereum's total staked amount across the network exceeded 41.9 million coins, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, hitting a new historical high. Over one-third of circulating supply is locked long-term in staking contracts, almost not participating in secondary market trading, effectively sealing off deep downside from the supply side. This is the fundamental reason why ETH can recover every time it pulls back to key levels.
However, short-term price rallies rely more on sentiment and leverage rather than systematic institutional capital inflows. On the capital side, last week’s spot ETH ETF net inflow was $697 million, seemingly impressive but only about one-third of BTC’s, with over 70% of the increment coming from BlackRock’s single product. The capital concentration is much higher than BTC’s, lacking support from systematic industry-wide accumulation. More upward momentum comes from the derivatives market; during this rebound, ETH perpetual contract open interest fluctuated sharply, with funding rates once spiking to 0.08%, attracting a cluster of short-term leveraged funds, which both amplified upward elasticity and planted hidden risks for corrections. This is reflected in the market as "leveraged gains on the way up, accelerated losses on the way down," with greater elasticity than BTC when rising but often larger declines when correcting.
The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting (August 27-29) will be a key test for both. The first Jackson Hole speech by new Fed Chair Wash is highly anticipated. The current market prices a roughly 69% probability of maintaining rates in September, leaning toward a neutral expectation. For BTC, with a solid institutional base and stable coin structure, even if a hawkish policy triggers a pullback, the $76,000 support is strong and downside limited; if policy is dovish, further upside space could open, pushing toward the $85,000 level.
For ETH, policy volatility will have a significantly amplified impact. If policy is dovish, sentiment warming could drive ETH to pulse higher again, challenging the $2,650 level; if policy is hawkish, sentiment retreat combined with leveraged liquidations will likely cause a larger correction than BTC, testing short-term support around $2,380-$2,400. Essentially, BTC earns on certainty, ETH earns on elasticity, and during the policy window, the value of certainty will become more prominent.
In terms of strategy, the two require different approaches. BTC suits a mid-term allocation mindset, holding base positions and accumulating in batches when it dips to the $77,000-$78,000 range, without frequent trades due to short-term volatility; ETH suits swing trading, taking partial profits above $2,550, waiting for a stable pullback before considering low entry opportunities, strictly controlling position size and leverage. In a differentiated market, understanding the real choices of capital is far more important than chasing short-term gains $BTC $ETH $DOGE #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Gold prices rose back to $4,650, a three-month high. The textbook explanation is perfect: nonfarm payrolls cooled, retail weakness, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 70% to 40%, and the dollar fell below 99. As rate hikes faded, the dollar weakened, gold benefited. But this only explains half the story. With rate hike expectations gone, why is the 30-year Treasury yield still stuck above 5.2%? The short end is trading "The Fed won't raise rates," while the long side seems not to hear. In the past forty years, every policy shift has led the interest rate curve downward, with the long side following the short side—but this time there was none. The crack split open on July 29. That day, the Fed held steady, but three opposing votes called for a rate hike—the first since 2016. Powell said something more important than voting: "Market tightening has done a lot of work for policymakers." With the same sentence, rates at both ends moved in opposite directions. The short end heard "no rush to raise rates" and fell; the long end heard "no rush to raise rates," so how long would this 30-year note stay stuck in above-target inflation? The 2-year bond fell 6 basis points, the 30-year bond rose nearly 10 basis points, reaching 5.213% intraday, the highest since July 2007. Two weeks later, on August 17, the 30-year yield rose to 5.31%, and hit 5.33% the next day. Meanwhile, the yields on 10-year government bonds in Germany, Japan, the UK, Italy, and France all hit multi-decade highs. When countries with completely different monetary policies raise prices together, the reassessment is not about monetary policy, but about global long-term creditors asking: 30 years is too long, compensation is insufficient, either raise the money or I won't take it. This is the term premium. Developed"Solana's First On-Chain Referendum: The Battle of Interests Behind Doubling Inflation Reduction and a 10x Increase in Daily Token Burn"
Solana is undergoing the most intense on-chain referendum since its mainnet launch, with voting closing on August 27.
The core proposal aims to accelerate the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, resulting in nearly 19 million fewer tokens minted over the next six years.
The fee rules will be rewritten simultaneously with increased token burn, with the daily tokens burned network-wide expected to surge from around 600-700 to 8,000-9,000.
Reducing token issuance eases pressure on the secondary market, but staking node rewards will be cut from 6% to 2.25% over three years, leading some large institutions to vote against it.
Currently, the overall network voting participation rate is less than 17%, still significantly below the one-third quorum required for the proposal to pass. $SOL Also a fluctuation! $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL have three completely different market personalities
Recently, the overall market has fallen into a range-bound fluctuation. On the surface, mainstream coins seem to be tugging back and forth, repeatedly shaking out positions, but a deep analysis of the market rhythm reveals:
The volatility logic and market temperament of BTC, ETH, and SOL are completely on different levels.
$BTC: Steady and solid, strongest institutional base
BTC has long been building a fluctuation platform in the 77500—80500 range, with a solid and substantial trend.
Every pullback is supported by dense limit orders at the bottom, downward momentum is restrained, and false breakouts are rare.
It is a stable asset, suitable for holding core positions with systematic stop-losses, offering the highest fault tolerance.
$ETH: Gate-drawing shakeout, specialized in triggering fixed stop-losses
Ethereum is a typical "patterned market."
It often uses rapid 15-minute spikes to briefly break key support or resistance levels, then quickly retracts.
It does not break structure or change trend but precisely sweeps out batches of conventional stop-loss orders, making it the most frequent and frustrating coin to shake out positions during consolidation.
$SOL: Emotion amplifier, extreme intraday rollercoaster
SOL is completely a carrier that amplifies market sentiment, with extremely emotional volatility.
Intraday 5% surges, 5% pullbacks, and late-night V-shaped reversals are normal, with single-day amplitude often starting at 10%.
Price movements ignore structure and moving averages, fully following capital sentiment and short-term contract speculation.
The contract underlying data reveals the essence even more:
The estimated leverage ratio in the SOL market is more than three times that of BTC.
The market is crowded with retail traders holding high-leverage positions, making it extremely sensitive to small buy and sell orders, causing distorted volatility and frequent spikes.
My biggest mistake before was applying BTC trading logic to SOL.
With the same 3% stop-loss ratio, BTC remains stable within the box, but SOL can instantly trigger a spike that wipes out positions, and after exiting, the price returns to its original level, resulting in wasted fees and position losses.
This round of fluctuation made me fully realize a core truth:
Different coins must match different risk control systems.
Different volatility attributes, leverage structures, and capital structures mean position logic cannot be universal.
High-elasticity coins require further compression of single-position risk while loosening stop-loss thresholds to more than 1.5 times the daily average volatility to avoid high-frequency shakeouts by market makers.
In a fluctuating market, making money fast is never the priority; surviving longer and preserving principal is the biggest winner in a consolidation cycle.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $OKB is currently the most comfortable among the 10 coins I am watching in terms of fundamentals and trend combined. It's not because it has risen the fastest, but because there is something supporting this wave of increase.
First, ICE strategically invested in OKX, valuing it directly at $25 billion.
The parent company of the NYSE entering the scene is not just ordinary good news; it feels more like traditional finance endorsing OKX.
Second, the supply logic of OKB has changed.
The total supply is locked at 21 million tokens, the minting authority has been removed, and combined with burning and buybacks, the supply-side story is very clear.
Third, X Layer is not just storytelling.
TVL has already surpassed $100 million, the ecosystem is starting to have real funds and applications running, and OKB is no longer just an exchange platform token but is beginning to have new use cases.
Fourth, from the trading structure perspective, this wave of OKB's rise has not seen an exaggerated volume increase.
Daily trading volume is not large, but the price can maintain strength, indicating that the chips in the market have not shown obvious panic selling.
Of course, there are short-term risks.
RSI has reached around 76, indicating it is indeed overheated in the short term, and continuing to chase the high directly is not a good choice.
I am currently paying more attention to $110.
If $110 holds, the overall strong structure remains, with a chance to continue challenging $120 or even above the previous high.
If $110 is effectively broken down, then a short-term pullback near $100 should be guarded against.
So my thinking is simple:
The logic is the strongest, but it may need some consolidation in the short term.
If I rank the coins I am currently watching by priority, OKB is still one of the few I am willing to actively consider adding to my position.
In the $110-$113 range, I will consider buying in batches.
Not chasing the highest, nor betting on the lowest.
First aiming for above $120, leaving the rest to the market.
$OKB $OKB #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 🔥 $CORE: HYPE VS REALITY 🚂
The viral $CORE “train poster” is getting attention, but hype alone isn’t a strategy. 👀
At around $0.026, a move to $10 would require roughly a 385× increase—not 100×.
Possible in crypto? Yes. But a move that large would require real adoption, strong fundamentals, deep liquidity, and sustained demand.
The dream may be viral.
The fundamentals decide whether the train actually moves. 🚂
$CORE $BTC
#Anthropic30TTAM #BTC80KHoldOrFoldCore PCE in July was flat year-over-year at 3.3% and up 0.2% month-over-month, meeting expectations; the overall PCE index was slightly hot at 3.7% year-over-year. The second estimate for Q2 GDP remains at 1.5%, but private domestic demand is not weak.
Inflation has neither accelerated nor returned to 2%. The stickiness is in core services (about 3.8% year-over-year), and real consumption basically stalled in July. This is neither enough to constitute ironclad evidence for a rate hike nor enough to signal a policy shift.
The focus is on Jackson Hole this Friday. Listen for three things: whether 2% is still a "zero tolerance" threshold, whether cooling in employment has entered a trade-off phase, and whether there is an actionable reaction function. Without a framework, divergences will continue in September, and the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and BTC will all experience volatility.
My personal judgment: September is more likely to see a pause rather than a dovish turn. BTC's pullback looks more like profit-taking amid macro uncertainty; the direction depends on real interest rate pricing, not a single PCE report.$BTC Technical analysis update with target and pivot numbers 📉⚡
The market is trading at sensitive levels; the divergence between liquidity flows and technical indicators enforces strict adherence to support and resistance levels.
$BTC: Oscillates above the $80,000 barrier; support holding at $78,000 protects the upward trend, while the next resistance is at $82,500.
$OKB: Currently in an accumulation range between $110 and $114; a break above $120 with heavy volumes confirms the trend, and a test of $105 is possible in case of a pullback.
$HYPE: Trading near the all-time high at 82; protecting positions at support of $72 BTC rose from 63,000 to 81,200 over the past seven trading days, a weekly gain of +23%, the largest single-week gain in three years. ETH rose +30% year-on-year, SOL +34%, making for an explosive scene. But looking at the candlestick charts, the essence is — the spark was the largest single-day short liquidation in history on August 20: about $1.44 billion in short positions were forced liquidated that day, with a short-to-long ratio of 8.6:1, and BTC surged over 8% in a single day. In other words, the first half was a lever stamp, not active spot buying. The real macro trigger was the U.S. Treasury expanding the long-term Treasury repurchase scale to no less than $4 billion per transaction (effective September 9), the market resumed trading with "weaker dollar + improved liquidity," and gold (approaching $4,700) and BTC, these "vastly different" assets, unusually strengthened simultaneously. Essentially, the same "fiat credit hedging" logic was to buy gold and BTC simultaneously. The 81,000 price was gained and then lost, with the current price pushing back to 78,000-79,000 in a fluctuating position. **The above 80,000-81,500 is a concentrated short liquidation zone and a pressure zone for stranded positions; the lower 76,300-77,800 is the concentrated trading support before this week's breakout**. Whether the market can upgrade from a "short squeeze rebound" to a "bull market restart" depends on the only variable to watch closely on is **the sustainability of net spot ETF inflows**—last week, 13 spot BTC ETFs combined for net inflows of 19.2 📊 What exactly did tonight's data say? The actual published data is as follows: Indicator Actual Expected Previous Overall PCE YoY 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% Overall PCE MoM +0.2% +0.1% -0.1% Core PCE YoY 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Core PCE MoM +0.2% +0.2% +0.1% Simply put: overall inflation exceeded expectations (3.7% vs expected 3.6%), but core inflation fully met expectations. After the data release, the market's probability expectation for a September rate hike rose from about 36% to about 42%. 🤔 Why didn't it crash? Three reasons: First, the data is "mixed news," not "all bad" Overall PCE exceeding expectations is indeed not good, but core PCE fully met expectations, and the 0.2% month-on-month increase shows that the price rise momentum has slowed. New York Fed President Williams even stated that if the monthly PCE MoM can stay at 0.2% or lower, inflation is expected to return to the 2% target on its own. The market signal is: inflation is sticky but not out of control. Second, Nvidia's earnings report is the top priority tonight The PCE data was released 20 minutes before Nvidia's after-hours earnings report, which is the real highlight. Nvidia's market cap exceeds $5 trillion, making it the largest weighted stock in the S&P 500, and the options market prices its post-earnings volatility at 5.4%. On the eve of such a "giant" about to announce results, most institutional investors would not react strongly to a not-so-bad inflation figure Just checked the market again. Personally, I think there will be a short-term downward correction. This correction is mainly to allow the market to rise again.
The purpose is to clear out high-leverage users in the market. The cost of pushing the price up with too much leverage is too high. Yesterday afternoon, I opened some short positions on BTC and altcoins. The altcoins corrected quite well. Most altcoins are bought by retail investors, so when selling, they definitely run faster than anyone else. $BTC has always been bought by institutional investors; to push it down, large sell orders are needed.
The 79-80k range still needs some consolidation time to absorb a large number of long and short opposing positions. Currently, the total open interest in futures contracts is 56.9 billion. Next time, at least the total open interest needs to be cleared down to 52 billion.NVIDIA will release its earnings report tomorrow night. Revenue guidance is $91 billion, gross margin guidance is 75%, and according to options market predictions, stock price volatility is ±5.9%.
The main focus is on incremental information mentioned in the conference call.
The market’s concerns have long since changed. Two years ago, the question was whether there were enough GPUs; one year ago, it was whether HBM and power were sufficient; now the question is different: do customers have enough money to continue building these AI factories that often require several gigawatts? This is also why Jensen Huang is lending money to manufacturers, lending his own balance sheet to partners for expansion.
Demand is sufficient, but ultimately payment capability is the bottleneck.
Key points to watch:
1. The quality of AI cloud orders. New players like CoreWeave and Nebius are aggressively expanding production. Are their purchases financed or based on real revenue? In August, NVIDIA partnered with BlackRock and Goldman Sachs to create a $500 billion financing platform, indicating that Jensen Huang himself knows that just selling cards isn’t enough; they also need to help customers find money. Just watch utilization: if utilization rises, financing acts as an accelerator; if it stagnates, financing becomes debt that will backfire on NVIDIA’s own balance sheet.
2. Whether Rubin can catch up with Blackwell. Shipping two generations of products simultaneously solidifies revenue visibility. A danger sign is when management starts talking about system complexity and customers’ data centers not being ready. Such talk is basically a euphemism for pushing revenue recognition back; the chips are ready but deployment isn’t, so cash flow won’t turn quickly.
3. Independent revenue from Vera CPUs. Last quarter, visibility approached $20 billion. SpaceX AI recently announced using Vera for Agent tasks. NVIDIA is encroaching on Intel and AMD’s territory, adding another growth curve in CPUs.
4. Gross margin. Storage price increases may push AI server prices up by more than 15% next year. If overall machine price increases still maintain a 75% gross margin, pricing power is firmly in Jensen Huang’s hands; if prices rise but gross margin falls, it means profits are shifting to the storage segment, and the profit distribution logic of the entire AI hardware chain needs rewriting.
5. NVIDIA is starting to personally engage in land, power, and financing. The 8GW Ohio project involves a $1.5 billion investment plus credit support. Previously, NVIDIA only bore supply chain risks; now it faces project construction and customer credit risks. The business model has changed, and valuation logic must follow.
To judge the upcoming trend, three questions: Is order quality improving or deteriorating? Can gross margin be maintained? What is the depth and speed of NVIDIA’s direct involvement?
If all three lean positive, the market continues. If orders worsen and gross margin declines, even if revenue beats expectations, valuation must be reconsidered.
The earnings report tells you how well NVIDIA performed in the past quarter.
The conference call will tell you how long this AI infrastructure expansion can continue running.The US stock crypto sector gets excited as soon as the sun shines
Small caps have more elasticity than giants; Strive's gains crush Strategy's. Small cap ASST has a small market cap, so a little concentrated capital can cause a huge surge, while MSTR's market cap is heavier, and the market evaluation is more rational. Preferred stock STRC dips slightly, as funds are withdrawing from defensive assets and pouring into highly elastic common stocks.
Infrastructure is more attractive than exchanges. Gemini and Coinbase earn from market turnover, Circle relies on stablecoin clearing and reserve interest, not on coin price surges; as long as funds circulate, it can maintain stable toll fees. Miners compete on transformation; Riot relies on pure computing power repair driven by coin price rebounds. TeraWulf and Cipher are integrating data centers into AI computing power hosting, leading to valuation restructuring.
Market outlook
$ASST wide-range oscillation
Pure momentum speculation, chasing highs is easy to get stuck, only suitable for short-term dips.
$MSTR oscillating upward
Preferred choice for large capital allocation, with Bitcoin stable, the bottom is very solid.
$CRCL optimistic for independent trend
Trading volume and compliance are strong supports, less affected by single coin price, suitable for buying on dips.
$COIN follows the market for catch-up gains
Performance tied to overall market turnover; if the heat continues, there is room for catch-up gains.
WULF bullish mid-term
Valuation shifting towards AI infrastructure, new contract premiums are very high.
This big surge is a concentrated catch-up brought by liquidity recovery. After a sharp short-term rise, a pullback and tug-of-war are very likely. It is not recommended to chase high-volatility targets like ASST; watch for dip-buying opportunities in CRCL or WULF, which have cash flow and transformation expectations. Nvidia's earnings report after the market closes tonight, and I set one rule for myself: no predicting direction before the report, no full-position bets. This is the pricing anchor for the entire AI narrative; whether good or bad, it can make $BTC twitch along. Retail investors love to go all in before the cards are dealt, thinking they can read the bottom cards — but the truth driven by events is, what you’re betting on is never the numbers themselves, but the difference between the numbers and market expectations. Expectations have already been raised so high that even exceeding them might not cause a rise. I choose to keep my position empty to see the cards revealed before deciding whether to bet. Are you setting up in advance tonight, or waiting for the results before making a move? Today's market calmness feels a bit fake. The VIX panic index is only 15.43, but gold plunged 0.94%, the US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.23%, and US Treasury yields are also pushing higher. The crypto market appears to be lying flat on the surface, but the volume leaderboard reveals a hidden battle for funds. Article Outline - 🔍 Macro: How the dollar and US Treasury yields suppress risk assets - ⚔️ Funds: The real battlefield revealed by the volume leaderboard - 📈 Bitcoin: $IBIT fell harder than $BTC, what does it mean - 🔮 Conclusion: Don't make moves before Nvidia's earnings snapshot today $BTC 78,277, -0.35% $ETH 2,453, -0.21% $QQQ +0.09%, $SPY +0.06% $DXY +0.23%, $GLD -0.94% $IBIT -0.64% $VIX 15.43, -0.19% $USO 126.35, +0.16% 1. Macro: When the dollar strengthens, gold kneels first 🔍 The US Dollar Index +0.23%, gold -0.94%, and rising US Treasury yields set the tone for all asset pricing today. VIX is only 15.43, the market is not panicking, but funds are flowing out of gold and into the dollar. Rising US Treasury yields indicate that expectations for Fed rate cuts are still wavering, keeping risk assets suppressed. US stocks $QQQ and $SPY barely closed in the green, the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.06%, the market is waiting for Nvidia's earnings and is cautious to move.Tonight’s PCE report isn’t the main event. The real question is whether it changes expectations for the Fed’s next move. At 8:30 PM, July PCE drops. For $BTC and $ETH, I’m watching how rate-cut odds react—not just whether the number beats or misses forecasts. 1️⃣ PCE meets expectations Markets likely stay range-bound, with traders waiting for Powell’s speech before committing to a direction. 2️⃣ PCE comes in cooler than expected Rate-cut expectations could rise, boosting risk assets and opening $xSKHY SK Hynix $28.6B Buyback: Largest Ever, but Union Vote Narrowly Rejects Salary Plan
1. Largest buyback ever. On 8/19, the board approved a 40 trillion KRW (about $28.6B) buyback + full cancellation, the largest in the history of Korean listed companies, to be completed within three months from 8/20 to 11/19. The shareholder return target was simultaneously raised to over 50%.
2. Strong performance. Q2 operating gross margin hit a record high of 76%, HBM market share dominates at 58% (Samsung and Micron each at 21%), HBM4 is already in mass production, HBM4E is ramping up in the second half, and net cash stands at 69 trillion KRW.
3. But the stock price is acting up. On the announcement day, it dropped 9.7%, and yesterday it was reported that the union narrowly rejected the salary proposal by 25 votes (50.08% vs 49.92%); employees prefer cash over 60% stock compensation. Today, the Korean stock market rebounded leading gains, while U.S. pre-market was down 0.9% and still hesitant.
Optimists: Buyback + cancellation directly boosts EPS; management saying "intrinsic value not reflected" is usually a bottom signal. Cautious view: down 40% from June highs, the market questions the sustainability of AI capex. Overall, waiting for union resolution + NVDA earnings confirmation makes the entry point more comfortable. $SKHX smart money short positions continue to expand.
A wallet with a nearly 30-day PnL of about 736k USD and a maximum drawdown of about 9.4% currently holds approximately 2.19m USD in SKHX shorts. Official transaction data shows that in the past 24 hours, about 2.11m USD was opened short and 1.79m USD was closed short, indicating active directional management amid high turnover rather than a static bet.
The market's daily trading volume is about 303m USD, with a spread of about 1.64 bps. Short execution remains strong, but the signal comes from a single wallet and does not represent a consensus.This round of rally came quickly and sharply, prompting many to instinctively ask whether the bull market is really at the doorstep. If we shift our focus away from the candlestick charts and carefully observe the structure of this market movement, we find that the driving force is actually different from before. Rather than being the starting gun for a full-scale bull market, it is more like a concentrated release following an internal imbalance in the market's capital structure. The capital layout on the short side is clearly weak, and the buying side only needs to perform routine allocation actions to leverage a considerable upward move. This kind of "light cavalry charge" style rally often carries strong emotional undertones and requires a more sober perspective to evaluate. From a more macro cyclical perspective, the four-year halving theory is still in effect. According to this framework, a truly sustainable bull market is more likely to appear in the time window from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. The current phase resembles the foamy prelude before the big tide arrives; although lively, it does not necessarily mean the main upward wave has fully started. Interestingly, leading holders like MicroStrategy have outwardly been signaling long-term optimism, but in practice, they have consistently been reducing their Bitcoin holdings. This "gap between words and actions" often appears at stage highs in past cycles, reminding us not to be blinded by a single upward momentum. From another angle, this rally might be understood as a capital overflow following the gradual weakening of profit-making effects in other traditional markets. When external market return expectations become muted, some funds naturally seek new breakthroughs, and Bitcoin... #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
The PCE data is out: Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, unchanged from the previous value and in line with expectations. Month-over-month is 0.2%. The Q2 GDP revision remains at 1.5%.
The data itself is not surprising. Core inflation has not accelerated, but it also hasn't cooled down; the 3.3% reading remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Market reaction is somewhat subtle. Expectations for rate hikes have slightly increased because the data did not give Powell any reason to turn dovish. Meeting expectations means this information is already priced in by the market; the real variable is how Powell interprets this data on Friday.
Powell is currently facing a contradictory set of signals. The PMI hitting a four-year high gives him ammunition to raise rates, while consumer data and retail sales provide reasons to ease off. Core PCE has been stuck around 3.3% for several months, showing inflation stickiness more stubborn than expected. His speech on Friday needs to address a core question: if the data does not continue to cool, what will the policy path be?
If Powell cannot provide a predictable framework, pricing for a September rate hike will continue to fluctuate, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will remain volatile. Risk assets will find it difficult to trend in one direction under such conditions. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin is oscillating near 80,000, with all long positions closed awaiting a pullback. PCE has not given a clear direction, so avoid heavy directional bets before Powell's speech on Friday.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.The holding mystery of the Trump family's crypto project World Liberty Financial has been further uncovered. The UAE institution Aqua 1 Foundation previously splurged $100 million to subscribe to WLFI tokens, surpassing Sun Yuchen's cumulative investment of $75 million and becoming the project's top buyer. However, the latest media investigation reveals that the actual controller of the foundation, Zhou Guren, not only is listed as a dishonest executor in China for debts amounting to tens of millions of yuan but has also been accused by UK prosecutors of involvement in money laundering cases.
This absurd contrast completely exposes the compliance black hole beneath the glamorous surface of some political concept tokens.
In the traditional financial system, major investments at the scale of hundreds of millions of dollars must undergo extremely rigorous anti-money laundering reviews and fund transparency checks. However, in the crypto testing ground shrouded by political and business halos, gray funds often attempt to gain political protection or launder overseas assets by channeling chips into political family projects. The top buyer being embroiled in money laundering lawsuits and dishonest execution undoubtedly puts WLFI directly under the scrutiny of the U.S. Department of Justice and regulatory anti-money laundering investigations.
For ordinary retail investors, blindly following so-called political concept coins can easily make them victims of political and legal battles. When the motivation behind large capital purchases is not based on technical ecology or economic models but is mixed with complex legal evasion and interest exchanges, the subsequent regulatory clearance and liquidity freeze risks for the token will multiply.
Penetrating the fog of political narratives and adhering to compliance bottom lines and real business value is the key to safeguarding asset security. A reminder for newcomers to the circle:
The altcoin season hasn't arrived yet, don't rush in
At the beginning of every bull market cycle, there is almost always a BTC and ETH bloodsucking phase, where large funds prioritize mainstream assets, and altcoins generally underperform.
My view this cycle is very clear: except for a few exceptionally strong altcoins, most altcoins have already reached their phase peak a couple of days ago.
History doesn't lie, look at the past two cycles
Last cycle (2023): BTC rebounded from $15,000 to $31,000, and only after BTC completed this main rise did the altcoin market cap ratio briefly bottom out.
The cycle before last (2019): BTC surged from $3,000 to $13,000, similarly BTC rose first, then altcoins followed.
The pattern is clear: at the start of a bull market, no cycle has altcoins outperforming BTC and ETH.
Who is still rushing into altcoins now?
Basically, it's high-leverage contract PVP paper hands—playing against each other, quick in and out, without sustained buying power support.
So, if you bet on the rally continuing:
Buying altcoins is less effective than directly leveraging BTC and ETH, or choosing high Beta crypto stocks.
At least before the bloodsucking phase ends, mainstream assets are the more rational choice.
To summarize:
It's not that altcoins are not promising, but the timing isn't right yet.
Wait until BTC and ETH heat up the market and funds overflow, then altcoins will truly perform.
For now, hold your hands, don't rush to take sides.
$BTC $ETH
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 $META quickly surged 4% after the settlement was finalized, with the market digesting the long-standing regulatory tail risk through a gap-up long bullish candle.
The intraday gains rapidly expanded, and the short positions accumulated in the early session were concentratedly covered as risk appetite warmed.
This minor litigation involving minors reached a record $16.7 billion settlement, and the company will accrue $10 billion in legal expenses in Q3 2026.
The one-time accrual converts previously vague legal expenditures into a definite accounting figure, effectively releasing the long-suppressed valuation discount in the short term.
If the advertising business cash flow can continuously cover this expenditure and the capital expenditure guidance remains stable, the market will maintain a clearing trend with oscillating upward momentum, with resistance gradually turning into support.
If the massive expenses severely erode cash reserves and force management to lower capital expenditure expectations, the previous rebound highs will quickly become new resistance levels, and breaking below the launch platform will signal the end of sentiment recovery.
If the capital pricing logic for this event shifts from "risk clearance" to "substantial profit impairment," the existing rebound structure will fail.
In the coming days, the key observation is whether capital can stabilize the price above the gap after digesting the $10 billion expense accrual.
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #US Core PCE flat from last month, how will Waller's Jackson Hole speech set the tone?
PCE data is out, neither good nor bad.
July core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, month-over-month 0.2%, exactly in line with market expectations. GDP growth remains unchanged at 1.5%. Inflation neither accelerated nor declined, stuck above the Fed's 2% target. The economy is cooling but not collapsing.
After the data release, the market showed little movement; Bitcoin dropped from 81,000 to hover around 79,000. CME's probability of a September rate hike slightly rose to 34%, but fundamentally unchanged from earlier.
The biggest market suspense now isn't the PCE, but Waller's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
This is his first appearance at such an event since taking office. How he views inflation, employment, and growth, and the weight he assigns to each, will directly determine the market's judgment on future policy. If he focuses on inflation, that's hawkish; if he prioritizes employment and growth, the market will interpret it as dovish.
But there's a problem—since taking office, Waller has been cutting guidance and reducing meeting frequency. If he still doesn't provide a framework this time, the market can only keep guessing about a September rate hike.
Impact on Bitcoin: if Waller leans dovish, US Treasury yields fall, and Bitcoin might rally again. If hawkish, short-term pressure. If ambiguous, Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate between 75,000 and 81,000.
Don't rush to bet on direction before Friday's speech. Those with positions should set stop losses; those without should wait for the shoe to drop. $BTC $ETH That whale who lost 12 million has appeared again
No activity for half a year, suddenly bought 2,165 ETH at an average price of 2463, spending 5.33 million.
Last time he cut losses at 2452, now he bought back at a price even higher than the cut loss price, admitting his mistake.
2460 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears; holding it means going up, breaking it means running.
Smart money here has 4,122 bulls with a position of 1.74 billion, 70% already profitable; bears only 1,151 with a position of 380 million, most still losing. Bulls are clearly stronger.
My view: 2460 support is okay, the whale daring to buy here shows strength below. But 1-hour volume is average, chasing longs now is not very cost-effective.
Conservative can look to go long around 2414, or wait near 2492; aggressive can try shorting one position now.
(This is my own analysis, not investment advice!)
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC US Q2 GDP grew 1.5% year-on-year, fully meeting expectations
The economy has not stalled; the data is overall neutral, with no one-sided catalyst for assets.
The market's real focus shifts to tonight's relatively hot PCE inflation.
Current macro situation: the economy is resilient, inflation is slowing down slowly, and the Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma.
Strong economy + stubborn inflation, previous rate cut expectations may be revised.
The negative impact of GDP has been fully absorbed, easing short-term pressure on BTC, but the subsequent direction depends on the Fed's stance on inflation.
Key focus on Friday's Jackson Hole meeting signals:
Dovish → liquidity expectations warm up, BTC continues upward;
Hawkish → rate cut expectations cool down, BTC should be cautious of a pullback after a rally.
GDP only stabilizes the baseline; inflation data is the key test.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
$BTC U.S. President Trump announced that starting January 1, 2027, the U.S. will raise tariffs on all cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel from Canada to 50%. Products manufactured in the U.S. will have "zero tariffs." Trump stated that the U.S. "doesn't need Canada, Canada needs the U.S.," and noted that 95% of Canada's business is related to the U.S., while the situation is "exactly the opposite" for the U.S.
Judging from the recent surge in gold prices, the market now interprets Trump's kind of external expansion tariff wars as a forced measure to maintain U.S. debt and the dollar. It seems to be a deliberate defense; the more people perceive weakness, the more they increase their gold allocations.Nvidia earnings preview tonight: Impressive data is no longer enough to boost the market. The market unanimously expects revenue for this quarter to be $92 billion, up 96% year-on-year, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.09. Data center business is expected to contribute $85.4 billion in revenue. Official guidance was previously set at $91 billion (±2%). Many hedge funds have privately raised their expectations to $94-95 billion. Some extremely optimistic institutions even saw $97.8 billion in revenue. There's an unavoidable phenomenon: for four consecutive quarters, all metrics in Nvidia's financial reports exceeded market expectations, but the stock price fell the day after the results were released, forming a fixed rhythm of "buy expectations, sell facts." Even if the book data looks impressive, if it just hits the public forecast of $92 billion, it's easy for capital to see it as falling short of expectations. The real focus of the game tonight is no longer the revenue already completed in Q2, but three things. First, Q3 revenue guidance, market consensus target of $103.7 billion. At the same time, management needs to release shipment progress for Vera Rubin's next-generation platform. Institutions are waiting for quantitative statements on Rubin's product revenue share, which will directly determine the growth ceiling of the computing power industry chain over the next two years. Second, gross margin level. Guidance target range is 75%. HBM storage and advanced packaging costs continue to rise. The market is concerned that storage price hikes will slowly erode profit margins. If gross margins drop significantly, the entire AI hardware industry chain will be under pressure. In the storage sector, SK Hynix and Micron valuations will be revised downward. Third,Finished watching, this is a video from "Shuqin Bitcoin Market News," 3 minutes 38 seconds long, mainly covering three topics. I verified them for you, point by point:
---
**1. Major Changes to the SOL Token Model (Core Content)**
She talked about two Solana proposals currently being voted on, SGP-0002 and SGP-0003, **this is true, I have verified it**:
- **SGP-0002**: Annual inflation reduction rate doubled from 15% to 30%, reducing about 18.9 million SOL issuance over 6 years (approximately $1.9 billion at current price)
- **SGP-0003**: Transaction fees will be fully burned, daily burn volume increasing from about 650 SOL now to 7,500-9,000 SOL
Voting starts August 22, **ends August 27** (same day as Nvidia earnings report).
She gave SOL support levels: $92 support, $86 strong support.
**My assessment:**
The positive news is real, but note several risks:
1. **Current voter turnout is very low**—SGP-0002 voting rate only 16.7%, SGP-0003 only 13.5%, needs 1/3 participation to pass, whether it can reach that by August 27 is uncertain
2. **Solana company (Nasdaq-listed HSDT) publicly opposes SGP-0002**, believing institutions need stable yield expectations
3. **Even if passed, it won't take effect immediately**—it's just directional authorization for developers, further SIMD technology implementation, testing, and activation may take months
4. She didn't mention: these two proposals will reduce staking rewards from 5.8% to 2.2%-4.3%, unfriendly to small validators; a similar proposal failed to pass 2/3 supermajority in March 2025 due to small node opposition
**Impact on you:** Your largest position is OKSOL about ¥55,000+, this proposal passing is a medium-term positive, but don't increase your position just because of this video. The voting result on August 27 coincides with Nvidia earnings, a double event, wait for the outcome.
---
**2. BTC Four-Year Cycle Analysis**
She showed cycle top charts for 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025, emphasizing "the top is neither in November nor December." She also reviewed her three calls on July 27, August 5, and August 19 saying "pullbacks are buying opportunities."
**My assessment:**
The four-year halving cycle narrative is well-known; she offered nothing new. Also, the historical cycle top months are not fixed—November 2013, December 2017, November 2021; she said "not November or December" but the charts clearly show 2013 and 2021 topped in November. This segment is more about showing she "called it right" to set up her VIP group.
Her three bullish calls were indeed correct, but anyone calling "buy the dip" in a bull market would be right; this doesn't prove forecasting ability.
---
**3. US Treasury TGA Buyback of US Bonds**
She said the Treasury might use $950 billion in the TGA account to buy back US bonds, starting September 9, with single buyback size doubling from $2 billion to $4 billion.
**This is also true, I verified:**
- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confirmed the start on August 25 for September 9
- TGA account indeed about $950 billion
- Single buyback limit raised from $2 billion to at least $4 billion
**But she exaggerated the impact:**
- $4 billion is a drop in the bucket compared to $800 billion daily US bond trading volume
- $950 billion is not "idle money," Treasury itself says $400-$500 billion is absolute minimum cash demand, peak week-end demand can exceed $800 billion
- On the announcement day, 30-year yield dropped 15 basis points but fully reversed within a day
- This is not QE; Treasury emphasizes it is a "routine liquidity support operation"
This BTC rise from $65K to $80K is indeed related to Treasury buybacks (improved liquidity expectations), but calling it "trillion-dollar money printing" is clickbait.
---
**4. VIP Group Marketing**
The latter half of the video shows her "trade diary": taking profits on MU and SNDK (both in your rotation portfolio), shorting crude oil CL/BZ, going long Google GOOGL. Ending with "just follow my aggressive trades"—typical paid VIP group promotion.
**Note: The MU and SNDK profit-taking records she showed are the same type of RWA token assets as your wife's GOOGL/SPCX/SNDK contracts. She took profits on SNDK, which you can reference—I previously suggested your wife close these three RWA contracts.**
---
**Summary:**
| Content | Authenticity | Credibility | Value to You |
|------|--------|--------|-----------|
| SOL Token Model Change | ✅ Real | Medium (positive but uncertain) | High, you hold SOL heavily |
| BTC Cycle Analysis | ✅ Real | Low, old story | Low |
| TGA Buyback | ✅ Real | Medium, exaggerated | Medium, macro background |
| VIP Calls | — | No comment | Don't pay |
**In short: SOL proposals are genuinely positive but not yet implemented; August 27 voting results coincide with Nvidia earnings, that day is critical. Other content is just for reference.**A sharp rise is called a bull market, a sharp fall is called a bear market, so what do we call the market that’s jumping up and down like these past two days? A monkey market? The previous strong stretch and breakout at 81200 directly brought market sentiment toward expectations of a bull market return, but is that really the case? The market feedback these past two days shows it’s not time yet; the market is under pressure again. At this stage, what we need to focus on is whether the bottom support can hold, and the recent support level is around 78000, which has been tested several times these past two days.
The evening market is the same. The few tests during the daytime so far have not formed an effective downward breakout, proving that the short-term support at this level is still very strong. After such a significant pullback, many friends might think the trend has reversed, but actually, with clear bottom-funding in the market, the short-term pullback largely belongs to a consolidation phase. As long as the support at this stage is not broken, we continue with the same strategy and hold the previous long positions normally.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $BTC $ETH Who will ultimately take on the debt of the US and Japan?
Japan has recently promoted the tokenization of financial assets, which the market generally interprets as positive.
But I believe what deserves more attention is the underlying debt logic:
What the US is doing, Japan may be replicating.
The US, through the digital dollar, requires issuers to hold short-term US Treasury bonds. The result is that more and more funds entering the digital currency system ultimately settle into US government bonds.
Japan's path is becoming clearer:
① Shortening debt maturities
Reducing the issuance of long-term government bonds and shifting more debt toward short terms like 2 or 5 years.
② Laying the groundwork for the digital yen
The reserve assets of digital currency connect with short-term government bonds.
③ Tokenization of financial assets
In the future, assets like stocks and bonds will be traded on the blockchain, which requires a 24/7 digital currency settlement system behind it.
These three steps together actually point to the same logic:
It's not that the government doesn't need debt, but that debt is looking for new "carriers."
In the past, it was banks, insurance companies, and pension funds;
After 2008, more and more was borne by central banks;
And in the future, digital currency may become the new reservoir of funds.
You may think you hold a payment tool,
but the reserve assets behind it may be turning into short-term government bonds.
So what truly deserves attention is not just whether "asset tokenization is positive," but:
As global debt grows ever larger, who will take the final baton?
Perhaps the answer lies in the digital currencies we use every day.Arcium ($ARX) Unlock Market Review｜A Rational Discussion on This Round's Trend and Subsequent Positioning Logic
On August 22, the Arcium unlock window officially closed. I believe friends who held positions throughout or observed have gained a very direct impression of this round's ARX market trend. After this unlock event, the market naturally surged to around 0.14. Many holders successfully took profits at the high, while others chose to continue holding, hoping for further market continuation. Combining this unlock rhythm, token release rules, market capital behavior, and the project's development status, I want to objectively and neutrally review this round's market and share my genuine views on ARX's future trend for all holders' reference.
First, let's objectively outline the core logic of this round's market. The August unlock is a key release point for Arcium's early private sale and team tokens, and a major bearish event long anticipated by the market. In the crypto market, most large token unlocks are short-term sentiment-driven sell-offs where "the bad news is fully priced in," and ARX perfectly fits this pattern. Market sentiment was cautious before the unlock, with selling pressure expectations high. After the unlock, funds took advantage of the sentiment to push prices up, reaching a peak of 0.14.
However, close market observation shows this surge was purely driven by sentiment capital, with no incremental fundamental support. During this rally, there were no simultaneous announcements of ecosystem launches, technical upgrades, major partnerships, or institutional buying—purely a last round of induced buying fueled by the "bad news release" expectation. Such unlock-driven surges without fundamental backing have historically been near-term top signals across many crypto assets.
Moving on from the market, let's rationally discuss Arcium's current project status. From a sector perspective, ARX focuses on privacy-preserving confidential computing within the Solana ecosystem. The sector narrative itself is sound and a popular Web3 niche. But whether a project has long-term viability is never about the sector alone; it depends on the project's actual delivery progress and operational rhythm.
Friends who have followed the project for a while should sense that Arcium has long been heavy on promotion but light on delivery. Early on, leveraging a strong sector, Solana ecosystem endorsement, and solid fundraising background, it built high community enthusiasm and attention. Early airdrops, testnets, and node mining attracted many users to enter and stay active, keeping community engagement high. But beyond the hype, substantive progress has been slow.
For a long time, the project team's external communications mostly consist of ecosystem outlooks, technical visions, and future plans—long-term narratives lacking tangible, perceptible, and verifiable product updates. Core sector advantages like confidential computing deployment, on-chain privacy applications, and AI computing empowerment remain confined to whitepapers and promotional tweets, with no large-scale ecosystem integration, no real on-chain data support, and no sustained commercial use cases. For crypto projects, narratives without delivery are ultimately castles in the air.
Returning to the crucial token and capital logic, this is also my core reason for a cautious outlook. After the August 22 unlock, the biggest market risk has surfaced. Early low-cost team and private sale tokens are now circulating, and the 0.14 high price provided ample profit-taking space for early holders.
The most obvious feature of this surge is: old tokens decisively exiting, new capital weak in support. Volume expanded rapidly during the rise, but momentum was severely lacking afterward, unable to hold the high ground, with very weak bullish strength. This means the current market is not driven by new main players entering but a typical pattern of existing capital battling and old holders selling on sentiment.
Historically, unlock + no positive news + high-volume stagnation is the most typical trend reversal signal. After short-term sentiment-driven speculation ends, the market returns to rationality, and prices propped up by narratives and expectations gradually revert to real value. Sustained rebounds are unlikely, and the market will probably enter a prolonged phase of choppy decline.
Many holders may harbor wishful thinking, believing that the bad news release is actually good news and expecting a second rally. But considering ARX's current state, the project lacks conditions to support a new market uptrend. First, fundamentals show no incremental growth, with no new stories or positive news to drive sentiment; second, heavy trapped positions between 0.12-0.14 create strong overhead resistance; third, early profit-taking tokens have not fully cleared, causing ongoing selling pressure; fourth, overall market sentiment favors rotation, with hot topics shifting quickly, making it hard for niche narrative projects to attract new capital.
Objectively, Arcium is not a pure vaporware project—it has a sector narrative, fundraising background, and a foundational community, which explains why it could rally after the unlock. But in crypto, projects that do not progress, lack delivery, and rely on past achievements are the biggest bearish factor. The team repeatedly harvesting sentiment from early hype without deepening product development, delivering ecosystem, or maintaining long-term market value will eventually erode all community confidence.
Regarding holding positions going forward, I maintain a rational and neutral stance. Friends who have taken profits at the high should patiently observe and avoid buying back on dips; those still holding should not panic sell but must temper expectations. Do not expect a short-term violent rally; the market will likely simmer down with a slow, grinding decline. Each small rebound will probably be an opportunity to reduce positions and exit.
The crypto market always prices in expectations beyond reality. When a project's positives are fully priced, tokens loosen, and fundamentals stagnate, subsequent declines tend to be silent and persistent. The 0.14 price basically locks in a phase high. Going forward, patience to exchange time for space, cautious holding, and risk control will always be the primary trading principles. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Grayscale's boss is bullish on $ZEC, expecting it to reach $8,000, but is he secretly accumulating?
Just saw a piece of news: Grayscale founder Barry Silbert said at an event in Bhutan that ZEC is bullish to $8,000 and that US stock trading will soon shift to 7×24 hours.
At the time he said this, Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) had just debuted and closed down 1.54% on its first day, with a trading volume of only $14.8 million. ZEC dropped from 889 to 774, and those who bought at the high haven't recovered yet.
Silbert's reasoning is that "competitive pressure from crypto trading platforms like Hyperliquid" will drive US stocks to 7×24-hour trading. Sounds like a crypto revolutionary, but he owns Grayscale, the biggest intermediary between traditional finance and crypto—if 7×24-hour trading really happens, who would still buy his trusts?
As for ZEC's bullish target of $8,000—Grayscale is pushing a ZEC ETF, and a DCG subsidiary is negotiating to purchase about 200,000 ZEC. Buying while hyping the price like this looks like nothing but "talking up the market."
ZEC's market cap has surged into the top ten, relying on Grayscale ETF expectations and short squeezes, not because the protocol itself suddenly got stronger. The $8,000 target—is it faith or business? #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
I am Cige. Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, the same as the previous value, month-over-month 0.2%, neither high nor low. Economic growth remains at 1.5%, neither accelerating nor collapsing. This set of data did not break any expectations, but also did not provide any direction.
The probability of a rate hike in September has slightly increased. The market is shifting focus from whether the data exceeded expectations to whether inflation stickiness can support further tightening. Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday has become the only thing that can break the deadlock. The market wants a judgment standard that can connect economic data and policy actions. If he cannot provide it, the divergence in rate hike expectations will continue to tear apart, and BTC's oscillation between 78000 and 80000 will also continue.
The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is changing. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL Tonight's data is hawkish, with bonds and the dollar moving first, and the US stock market opening showing only slight divergence. Funds are reducing exposure to some overvalued tech stocks while rotating into industrials, materials, and storage sectors; a full-scale risk-off has not yet appeared. I cross-checked the data released at 8:30 PM tonight with the market performance after the open. July's overall PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.1%, and 3.7% year-over-year, also above the 3.6% forecast. Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, both exactly on expectations. Q2 GDP held steady at 1.5%, but internal data is somewhat hot, with consumption growth revised up from 3.2% to 3.4%, and the GDP price index revised up from 6.2% to 6.4%. US demand remains resilient, and inflation has not given the Fed an easy path to pivot. US Commerce Department PCE data, US Q2 GDP second estimate. Durable goods orders grew 1.1%, which looks strong, mainly driven by transportation equipment. Excluding transportation, growth was only 0.4%, and core capital goods orders rose just 0.2%. Corporate equipment demand itself has not surged simultaneously, which tempers the data's heat. US durable goods orders report. The bond market reacted more honestly. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 4.625% before the data release to about 4.658%, and the dollar index returned to around 99.1. The higher the interest rate, the less future profits are worth today, so the Nasdaq and overvalued growth stocks naturally came under pressure first. As of 9:41 PM Beijing time, the S&P 500 was down about 0.02%, BTC retraces to $78K: Catalyst week starts, but above $81K is a meat grinder
$BTC fell from a high of $81,270 to $78,307, down 0.9% in 24h, still up 23% for the week. Early Wednesday flash crash pierced $77,500 then recovered, OKX contracts liquidated $766M in 24h, a consolidation after long and short liquidation.
1. ETFs are real money. Net inflow of $338M on 8/24, sixth consecutive day, August total $2.2B, the strongest since 2026, BlackRock IBIT continues to lead. Institutional pipeline is ongoing.
2. On-chain is turning bullish too. CryptoQuant bull market score jumped from 30 to 80, highest since last October, 8 of 10 indicators bullish, spot demand fastest growth since late December, more like a bullish continuation than a top. But RSI above 80 is overbought, after $7B forced short liquidations subside, a pullback is normal.
3. Three catalysts lined up. Early this morning NVDA earnings (options implied ±5.4%), Friday PCE, 8/28-29 Jackson Hole Fed debut. Holding $77-78K cost base is healthy digestion, $80-81K is a dense profit-taking zone. No chasing short-term, wait for NVDA results.If a person knows about a military operation in advance, the most dangerous action might not be sending a message, but secretly placing a "sure-win" bet. Even more absurd is that they think they are making money anonymously, but they might inadvertently light up an intelligence beacon for the whole world. Reuters recently revealed that an anti-corruption research institute scanned public trades on prediction markets and identified 152 wallets that were unusually successful in military and defense-related events. These wallets collectively earned about $8 million, with an average win rate of 97.2%. The researchers gave them a vivid nickname—"Orcas": they suddenly appear, take a bite out of an unlikely outcome, and disappear after profiting. The numbers are indeed striking, but don't rush to label all 152 wallets as spies. The study itself admits that luck, copying others' bets, and automatic follow-trading can produce similar patterns. Wallets are anonymous, and abnormal statistics are not court evidence. What can be confirmed now is that this behavior pattern exists; what cannot be confirmed is who is behind each wallet and where the information comes from. I think the truly interesting part is not "someone might be profiting from insider information," which is not new in traditional markets. The new thing is that blockchain turns suspicious bets into real-time traces visible to everyone. Prediction markets originally sold "the wisdom of the crowd," but once the topic involves military operations, its odds can also become a public intelligence dashboard: an insider moves first, bots and imitators follow, and odds changes attract more attention. Before the secret is reported by the media, the market is already flashing signals for it On the eve of Nvidia's earnings report, it was suddenly stabbed in the back by OpenAI. This stab is called Jalapeno, the first-generation self-developed inference chip jointly developed by OpenAI and Broadcom. Jalapeno outperforms Nvidia's GB300 and all versions of AMD and Google chips in terms of power efficiency and response latency across multiple AI inference scenarios. Some analysts say that certain functions even surpass the not-yet-mass-produced Rubin. Does this sound like absolutely bad news, that Nvidia's moat is in trouble? You need to pay attention to the keyword "inference scenarios"—this is obviously not meant to replace Nvidia's training chips. It is designed for data centers and massive inference scenarios in the Agent era. Nvidia remains the god of training because cutting-edge large model training explores the unknown, heavily relying on hardware, general programming capabilities, and ultra-high fault tolerance. The cost of a single cutting-edge large model training run can easily reach hundreds of millions of dollars, requiring tens of thousands of chips communicating at ultra-high speeds via NV Link and quantum networks. Any hardware error or architectural rigidity could cause hundreds of millions of dollars of training results to be wasted. No major player dares to risk using their own self-developed chips for this. As long as humanity continues to pursue stronger models, Nvidia's monopoly on super training clusters cannot be broken. But as AI enters the Agent era, the importance of inference rapidly rises. When you give AI a complex task, it needs to perform multi-round chain-of-thought inference, self-reflection and error correction, and continuous interaction with external tools and environments in the background. At this time, enterprises want to The muted group and live room have consistently guided everyone to precisely catch the bottom of the 2420 long position.
No hindsight, the strategy, timing, and entry points are all recorded.
You have to dare to take action at the position; if the market moves poorly, decisively take profit and exit.
Long-term data leans slightly bearish; the non-farm and CPI data at the beginning of the month were both revised down.
These are relatively good bullish signals, which is why gold's gains have shown such large fluctuations.
Today's released PCE data did not decline, which meets expectations.
This indicates that inflationary pressure still exists. Although the rate hike expectations for September have slowed,
the expectations for October and November remain. Next, pay attention to Friday's non-farm payrolls.
Also, tonight's early morning Nvidia earnings report will become a major source of volatility for the US stock market and crypto space.
The market has already priced in that Nvidia will deliver a decent earnings report.
Therefore, ordinary beats may not necessarily be bullish; only a significant beat might drive the Nasdaq and crypto markets to continue rising.
If it's just a slight beat with average guidance, it's easy to see a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news reaction with a spike and then a pullback.
Current earnings expectations no longer reveal much, referencing SanDisk's previous earnings report.
Focus on its data business, as data centers account for the vast majority of new revenue.
If total revenue beats expectations but data centers fall short, it might be viewed as a low-quality beat #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #OpenAI self-developed chip debuts, inference cost becomes key
AI computing power may be heading towards extreme concentration, with infrastructure investment reaching $11 trillion
SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel's latest assessment: by 2028, OpenAI and Anthropic may capture 70%–80% of the world's new AI computing power, with a combined scale exceeding 100GW; currently, the two already account for about 30% of global new computing power. Even more astonishing, the monetization ability per unit of computing power at leading AI labs is rapidly increasing, with Anthropic currently generating about $50 million in revenue per MW.
This means: selling shovels is more certain than mining gold. First look at $NVDA — GPUs remain the core computing power supply; next $MU, SK Hynix $SKHYNIX and other HBM memory, as well as TSMC, Broadcom, Marvell and other advanced manufacturing and interconnect chains; data center power, optical modules, and liquid cooling also benefit. SemiAnalysis estimates that AI infrastructure investment from 2024 to 2029 could reach $11 trillion, with over $5 trillion requiring debt financing.
In terms of strategy, I prefer to layout the industrial chain on pullbacks, not chase AI lab valuations: watch NVDA for demand and orders, MU for HBM price cycles, optical modules/power chain for capital expenditure realization. This AI arms race now depends on "who has money, power, and chips." Pullback Test Incoming: BTC vs ETH, Which Has the Stronger Downside Defense?
Recently, after BTC broke through the $80,000 mark, it quickly pulled back, dipping as low as around $78,200; ETH simultaneously fell from a high of $2,530 to about $2,430, with intraday volatility noticeably increasing. As the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting approaches, market sentiment has shifted from a short squeeze frenzy to cautious observation, with growing concerns about a pullback. Whether this rebound driven by liquidity restoration is nearing its end remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the downside defenses of these two leaders are fundamentally different. BTC relies on a cost floor built by institutional funds, while ETH depends on a supply floor created by staking lock-ups. The difference in the strength of these defenses directly determines the depth of the pullback and the safety margin of holdings.
BTC’s downside defense is a cost floor backed by real capital, solid and quantifiable, firmly limiting the pullback range. Since August, the cumulative net inflow into U.S. spot BTC ETFs has exceeded $2.07 billion, setting a new monthly high for 2026 so far, with a single-week peak inflow of $1.92 billion, a near 10-month record. Unlike retail short-term funds chasing highs and selling lows, this top-tier institutional capital, led by BlackRock, targets medium- to long-term asset allocation, largely settling as base holdings with minimal quick turnover. This has directly formed a core cost support band between $76,000 and $78,000—each time the price dips into this range, institutional buy orders intervene to support the price, creating a strong support level that is difficult to break in the short term.
On-chain data further solidifies this defense. Over the past two weeks, the entire network’s exchanges have seen a cumulative net outflow of over 13,000 BTC, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking, causing the proportion of active circulating supply to steadily decline. The share of coins held by long-term holders has reached a new high since December 2023. The ongoing supply contraction means selling pressure will not increase with price pullbacks but will instead rapidly diminish as prices fall. Even though the historical trapped positions at the $80,000 level are still releasing selling pressure, this pressure is explicit and gradually absorbed, with no hidden risk of leveraged liquidations. Overall estimates place BTC’s normal pullback range within 5%, with an extreme pullback level around $74,000 to $75,000, providing ample safety margin.
ETH’s downside defense is a structural floor supported by supply contraction; the base is solid but the upper layer is loose, making its pullback elasticity much greater than BTC’s. Its fundamental support is undeniably strong: as of late August, Ethereum’s total staked amount reached 41.89 million ETH, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, a new all-time high, with over one-third of circulating supply locked in staking contracts, hardly participating in secondary market trading. This fundamentally seals off deep crash potential, making a deep pullback below $2,300 highly unlikely.
However, the upper trading layer support is very weak. On the capital side, since August, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs have been only about one-third of BTC’s, with over 70% of the increase coming from a single BlackRock product, lacking systemic industry-wide accumulation support. The thickness and breadth of institutional base holdings are far inferior to BTC’s. Short-term price support mainly comes from sentiment funds driven by AI+Crypto narratives and leveraged funds in the derivatives market. During this rebound, ETH perpetual contract open interest has fluctuated wildly, with funding rates spiking to 0.08%, causing short-term leveraged positions to cluster, which amplifies both upward momentum and pullback risk. Once market sentiment shifts, profit-taking can easily trigger a phase of liquidation, likely causing pullbacks larger than BTC’s.
The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting will be a critical test for these two defenses. Under the baseline scenario, with the new Fed Chair Wash maintaining a neutral stance, BTC will continue to oscillate between $77,000 and $81,000, gradually digesting trapped positions; ETH will fluctuate widely between $2,400 and $2,550, with sentiment driving the market. In a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish tone triggers a pullback; BTC, supported by institutional cost lines, will likely find a bottom above $75,000; ETH may test the $2,350-$2,380 support band with significantly greater volatility. In an optimistic scenario, dovish policies push the market upward; BTC is expected to steadily break through the $82,000 resistance, while ETH will impulsively challenge the $2,650 level.
Operationally, different pullback response strategies are needed for each. BTC suits a mid-term layout approach, with pullbacks to the $76,000-$78,000 range suitable for phased accumulation, holding base positions without over-worrying about short-term volatility; ETH fits a swing trading approach, taking phased profits above $2,550, waiting for pullbacks near $2,380 to consider buying the dip, strictly controlling position size and leverage. In a pullback market, the contest is not about who rises faster but who falls less and holds firm. Understanding the strength of the defense is key to preserving profits and seizing opportunities. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Bitcoin's recent price movement has indeed been somewhat perplexing. The price has been climbing steadily, reaching above $81,000, setting a new high compared to a few days ago, almost ignoring technical resistance levels and trapped positions. Logically, at this level, many holders should be waiting to exit to break even, but the market seems oblivious, continuing to rise on its own. So the question arises: if those trapped positions choose to cut losses and exit, where does the buying capital come from? Is it short covering, or is the so-called "big money" paying out of pocket? No need to think twice; the latter is basically impossible. Institutions are not charities; there's no reason for them to actively help others break even at such a high level. Therefore, logically, this strong rally is more like a chain reaction caused by forced short covering rather than genuine new capital pushing the price up. Following this line of thought, the current market situation is somewhat delicate. After continuous rallies, the short-selling force has been almost exhausted, and the fuel is running low. If big money wants to keep pushing up without enough counterparties and momentum support, waiting for a pullback to regroup makes more sense. This is why, at the current level, some are starting to take contrarian short positions, such as attempting to short near $81,000, betting on a technical correction after this sharp rise. Of course, whether the pullback will truly lead to a decline depends on whether Bitcoin can effectively break below key support levels. If the correction is minor and the market stabilizes quickly, then a reassessment of the situation might be necessary.📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Shorts dominated the short-term cycle extremely, with bulls reversing in 24 hours but at a very small scale. The total liquidation was only $6,971, indicating extremely low liquidity and an invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $367.32 $0 $367.32
4 hours $367.32 $0 $367.32
12 hours $715.76 $0 $715.76
24 hours $6,971.47 $6,127.89 $843.59
From 1 to 12 hours, shorts monopolized (bulls at 0), with volume rising from $367 to $715, which is an invalid scale; in 24 hours, bulls reversed with a 7.26 times multiplier, liquidating $6,127.89 against shorts' $843.59, totaling $6,971.47. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for only 10.3% of the 24-hour total, showing very low concentration, with bulls focusing their efforts in the latter half of the 24 hours. Bulls violently reversed the shorts' extreme monopoly; although the short squeeze momentum was strong, the total volume for the day was less than $7,000, lacking any directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, as this token has extremely poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: The Fed's favored inflation indicator remains flat, Bitcoin oscillates after testing the $80,000 level in a "devaluation trade," and the U.S. continues its "economic war" against Iran.
📊 Core PCE Flat Month-over-Month: Inflation Stickiness Unresolved, Watch for Waller's Jackson Hole Speech
On August 26, the U.S. Department of Commerce released July's Core PCE Price Index year-over-year at 3.3%, unchanged from last month and in line with market expectations; month-over-month rose 0.2%, accelerating from June's 0.1%. The PCE Price Index year-over-year was 3.7%, also unchanged. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted consumer spending in July was flat month-over-month, failing to continue the strong growth momentum seen in May and June.
Inflation stickiness persists while consumer momentum weakens—this data puts the Fed's September rate decision in a dilemma.
The bigger focus is this week: Fed Chair Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium at 10 PM Beijing time on August 28. Wall Street views this as the most critical window for Waller to reshape the Fed's credibility. The market expects Waller to possibly reiterate inflation risks and keep rate hike options open to rebuild trust. Against the backdrop of three dissenting votes at the July FOMC and publicized internal divisions, Waller's speech will be a key indicator for September's rate hike decision.
₿ BTC Oscillates After Breaking $80,000: After the Short Squeeze, the Real Test Begins
Bitcoin surged to $81,237 on Monday, a three-month high, rising over 20% in the past week. However, it failed to hold above that level and retreated to around $79,000 for consolidation.
This rally was driven by three forces: the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchase operations weakening the dollar and reigniting the "devaluation trade"; continuous net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs; and large-scale short liquidations.
Analysts point out that this rally was mainly driven by short squeezes. Whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. A successful break above the $83,000 resistance could open the way to $90,000; failure to hold may lead to a deep correction.
🚢 U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran: Shifting from Military Strikes to "Economic War"
On August 24, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an expansion of economic sanctions on Iran to include five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology. Yellen called this move the "Economic Normandy Landing Day."
Meanwhile, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has seen subtle changes. Iran and Oman issued a joint statement proposing to establish a mutually agreed safe maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the strait remains closed, and the temporary agreement does not mean full resumption of navigation. Iran has previously made clear that if the U.S. continues its economic war, no oil will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Core PCE holding steady at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness remains unresolved; Waller's Jackson Hole speech will be the key indicator for September's rate hike decision; Bitcoin retreated after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can convert into sustained buying remains uncertain; the U.S. shifts from military strikes to "economic war" against Iran, with progress in Strait of Hormuz navigation talks but no final agreement yet. $CORE contract liquidations for the whole day were under $7,000, indicating extremely low liquidity and invalid market conditions, sharply contrasting with the massive funds flowing into the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. As inflation data, central bank speeches, and geopolitical games converge in the same time window, the market awaits Waller's direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Tonight, the US PCE data has been released. Core inflation meets expectations but overall remains high. The July core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, both in line with market expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month. After two consecutive months of strong growth, real consumer spending stalled in July. The data indicates the US economy is cooling, which may strengthen the Federal Reserve's rationale for keeping interest rates unchanged. Note, the real highlight is the Jackson Hole annual meeting this Friday. The conference theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." This is not only the keynote speech of the annual policy seminar but also regarded by Wall Street as the most critical window for Waller to reshape the Fed's credibility. Since taking office in May, Waller has deliberately avoided forward guidance and shortened policy statements, which the market interpreted as a lack of determination to fight inflation. Subsequently, the 30-year US Treasury yield once surged to 5.34%, the highest level since 2007. Goldman Sachs estimates that enhanced communication could reduce interest rate volatility by about 10% over the next year, but Waller is moving in the opposite direction. At the meeting, if Waller provides too little information, the market will be extremely disappointed. Waller's speech this time may need to reiterate three points: inflation risks have not been eliminated, the policy rate remains the core tool to combat inflation, and if inflation rises again, the Fed will tighten further. In summary, the PCE data meets expectations and has limited short-term market impact. The real test is Waller's speech on Friday. If Waller releases clearer policy signals, market volatility will sharply increase. If he continues with vague communication style, the mar$BTC fell behind first, $QQQ is still holding up, funds are picking assets, whoever shows weakness first will set the direction.
$BTC 78,355 -0.97% $ETH 2,454 -0.78%
$QQQ +0.62% $SPY +0.32% $IBIT +0.18%
$DXY +0.22% $GLD +0.32%
Disturbances in Hormuz and oil prices haven't stopped, inflation expectations are still being pushed up; Fed expectations are suppressing valuations, AI/semiconductors are the sentiment switch for $QQQ. Among the top trading volumes, $ZEC -5.7%, $XRP -4.8% were hit hard, $HYPE +2.8% still managed to resist, money isn't being thrown around casually.
$ETH -0.78% is more resilient against $BTC -0.97%, the elasticity is on $ETH's side, risk appetite hasn't completely died down.
$QQQ +0.62% still has funds flowing in, AI/semiconductors aren't collapsing, $QQQ isn't planning to withdraw for now.
$IBIT +0.18% versus $BTC -0.97%, spot is weak but ETF has buyers, this divergence isn't bad but don't take it as a strong signal.
$DXY +0.22% slightly firmed up, risk assets have to bow down, watch if it continues to rise.
$GLD +0.32% is still rising, safe-haven funds haven't fully withdrawn, the market isn't completely reassured.
Today's information is quite mixed, don't rush your positions, wait for more concrete signals from $QQQ and $DXY before making a move.
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元1. Weak rebound after consecutive days of sharp decline. Micron ($xMU) is at $932.97 today, up 2.48%. But yesterday (8/24) it plunged -5.83%, with the weekly drop around -7%. This is a "wait and see" stance on the eve of NVDA's earnings report. If NVDA misses, the entire HBM/storage chain will suffer; if NVDA beats and provides strong guidance, Micron will directly benefit (DRAM market share 25%). 2. Valuation is relatively conservative. Market cap is $1.05T, TTM P/E is 21x (reasonable), forward P/E is 27x (with a premium). The analyst average target is $1,513 (+62% upside), with all 43 analysts rating Buy or Strong Buy, but targets range widely from $361 to $2,200, showing extreme dispersion. The market will only be willing to pay a premium after NVDA's earnings are confirmed. 3. Solid fundamental data. LTM revenue growth +219% (YoY), CFO/Revenue 58%, FCF/Revenue 57%. Fundamentals are not weak; valuation is constrained. Morningstar: no economic moat rating given; the market treats cyclical stocks as cyclical stocks, not as growth stocks. 4. The gap with SK Hynix is narrowing. DRAM market share: SK 26% / MU 25% / Samsung 21% / CXMT 8%. Micron is catching up, and HBM3E 12-layer has already shipped to NVDA B200, making it the second company after SK.#US Core PCE flat from last month, how will the Jackson Hole speech by Waller set the tone?
💣 The data matched expectations, but Waller's dilemma remains.
July Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, 3.3% year-over-year, perfectly in line with expectations. But consumer spending has come to a halt; it was still strong in June, but in July not a penny more was spent — this trend is more worth pondering than the CPI itself.
The background is tough: 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.34%, the highest since 2007. The national debt has broken 40 trillion, inflation hasn't been controlled for five years, and the market's patience with the Fed is running thin.
Waller's Jackson Hole debut on Friday — the market isn't looking for a "hike or no hike" statement, but a convincing framework. If he continues to be vague, long bonds will keep crashing. TD Securities has said that if no direction is given, the market will vote with its feet.
PCE provides some breathing room, but Friday is the real trump card. For BTC, if Waller gives direction and uncertainty decreases, it’s a breather; if he continues to dodge, long bonds will keep collapsing and BTC will bear the brunt.
Consumer spending has stalled, the probability of a rate hike is 38%-40%. The verdict comes Friday.👇$BTC $LIGHT