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8.26 Gold Afternoon Analysis
In the morning, the price retraced to 4630 and stabilized before rebounding above 4670. The short-term bulls have fully released momentum, entering a high-level consolidation. The daily bullish structure remains intact, but RSI is overbought and momentum is weakening. The 4700 level faces resistance, and the hourly chart shows a divergence correction is needed.
In the afternoon, the market mainly digests profit-taking with consolidation. Buy on dips around 4620-4630, with a stop loss below 4600. The target is 4670-4680, and a breakout could reach 4700.
Note:
The above analysis is the personal view of Mu Yao. The market changes rapidly, and the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice! $XAU Strong inflows into spot $BTC ETFs continue, according to SoSoValue.8.26 Midday BTC Market Analysis
After a surge and subsequent pullback, BTC is currently in a consolidation phase. Yesterday, bulls pushed the price up, reaching a high near 81270 during the session, then faced resistance and pulled back. In the early hours today, the price repeatedly tested support in the 78000‑79000 range effectively.
Key Levels
Upper resistance: The 80000 round number is the core resistance level. A strong volume-backed close above this level is needed to open up a new upward move; once broken, attention can shift to the 81500‑82500 range.
Trading Strategy Reference
Bullish bias: If the price stabilizes after pulling back to the 78100‑78500 range, consider light long positions with targets at 80000‑81000, and place stop-loss below 77500. Orders with 30x leverage may look like a big gamble on the surface, but in reality, it's just betting on the margin of error for direction. Profits are amplified, losses are amplified too, and a slight misstep can easily get you harshly punished by the market.
Key data here: the coin is xyz:XYZ100, leverage 30x, long position, entry price 29,197.73, position size $249,988.
Don't be fooled by the large position size; the biggest risk with high leverage isn't momentary volatility, but your own emotional overreaction. If you stick stubbornly to the wrong direction, hoping the market will turn around on its own, small losses can snowball into big ones, or you might even get liquidated and taught a harsh lesson.
Experienced traders say bluntly: going long with 30x leverage isn't bravery, it's trading discipline for thrill. If you're right, you feast; if you're wrong, the market will teach you a lesson in minutes.
Cut losses when you should; don't mistake stubbornly holding on for skill. Preserve your capital, so you have the chance to turn things around next time. Recent key focuses in the crypto circle‼️
1. The US expands crypto sanctions on Iran, increasing compliance risks; Middle East conflicts push inflation higher, reviving Fed hawkish concerns
2. BTC spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, but the market is in an extreme greed zone with crowded high leverage, increasing liquidation risks
3. Overall news is neutral to volatile, bulls have funds supporting the bottom, short-term pullback selling pressure is heavy, beware of sharp drops from the highs
$BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $HYPE is consolidating with reduced volume below its historical highs, as long-term interest-bearing buyback expectations meet the imminent release of internal tokens head-on.
After the price touched $83.3, it retraced to the $80 level for consolidation, with spot trading volume contracting as high-level holders take profits.
The official launch of AQAv2 brings a $5 billion reserve interest-bearing buyback mechanism, expected to inject over $100 million in buying annually, while on August 29, a $1.2 billion token unlock will occur.
The buying commitment is spread evenly over time on an annual basis, but the incremental supply shock from circulating tokens will be realized in concentrated bursts at specific points, making short-term positions more defensive.
If bulls can absorb the initial liquidity supply above $78 and rebuild risk appetite through buyback cash flows, the price is likely to open space above $84.
If heavy selling pressure breaks through the $77 support line directly, a liquidity gap may force the valuation to seek more solid support around $72.7.
If the unlocked tokens do not enter secondary market circulation, the current pressure logic will be overturned.
The most important variable to watch in the coming week is the actual scale and flow rate of unlocked tokens transferred on-chain to trading platforms on August 29.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期$5 billion of IBIT options expire on September 18.
Most of that is calls: $3B vs $2B in puts.
Max pain sits at $40, which corresponds to a #BTC price of approximately $71k.Tonight is all about betting on Nvidia $xNVDA! Revenue expectation of 92 billion, the ultimate validation of AI computing power
$NVDA will release its Q2 earnings after the market closes today, the biggest event in the global capital markets this week.
Wall Street expects revenue of 92 billion, EPS of $2.09, and data center revenue is expected to be 85.4 billion, up 107% year-over-year. But Jefferies has raised the "bullish threshold" to 95 billion, and next quarter's guidance needs to be 108 billion to be considered above expectations.
Nvidia has fallen for seven consecutive days, the longest losing streak since 2022. The storage sector plunged more than 6% the day before yesterday and then launched a full-scale rebound before the market opened yesterday. Funds are frantically speculating ahead of the earnings report.
Three key points: whether the customer structure is diversified, the relay timetable from Blackwell to Vera-Rubin, and whether the 500 billion financing pool will become a new risk. Market cap is 5.25 trillion; a 14% increase would reach 6 trillion. If the earnings report is good, the entire AI industry chain will experience a major upward wave; if mediocre, it will oscillate at a high level. No sleep tonight. #NvidiaEarnings $NVDA Has the sentiment indicator reached a short-term peak?
CryptoQuant Research tweeted that $BTC has entered the early stage of a new bull market, but some short-term indicators are starting to overheat.
The intention is clear: to warn leveraged traders to be cautious, as the early bull market is a directional cycle, which doesn’t mean it will rise every time.
Short-term overheating indicates the price is rising too fast, and profit-taking and leveraged funds need to be digested.
Market sentiment also confirms this.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to its highest level since the crash in October 2025.
Funds that were hesitant a few weeks ago are now starting to worry about missing out, with a clear increase in FOMO.
On the other hand, institutional moves are more subtle.
Wintermute has reduced its short exposure on Hyperliquid to $80.48 million, indicating that professional funds are unwilling to continue heavy bets on a decline but still maintain some short positions, not fully switching to a one-sided bullish stance.
The current market feels more like "direction biased bullish, positions overheated."
It is important to watch if the rise is mainly driven by spot and ETF funds, in which case a pullback might just be a rotation.
If funds continue to flow into futures, with open interest and funding rates rising rapidly, a single pullback could turn into a chain liquidation.
So whether it’s a bull market and whether to chase the highs are two different things.
The biggest risk is trading with maximum leverage when sentiment is at its peak, unable to withstand a sharp drop during the bull market. $SUI's introduction of tZERO's compliant infrastructure is favorable for mid- to long-term institutional capital entry, but there is a timing conflict between the lag in U.S. stock securities clearing cycles and the short-term speculative demands of the crypto derivatives market.
tZERO's issuance, custody, and trade settlement support has connected the U.S. regulatory compliance channel, and pricing in the spot market is beginning to tilt toward institutional compliant capital absorption. The derivatives market's short-term reaction to such long-cycle compliant infrastructure benefits tends to show liquidity withdrawal after the benefits are realized.
From the capital flow perspective, the integration of compliant custody and transfer agency facilities enhances the expectation of locking spot tokens. The implementation cycle for U.S. stock market infrastructure access is usually long, making it difficult to immediately convert into explosive growth in on-chain liquidity or order book depth in the short term.
The bullish scenario requires observing the persistence of spot buying at support levels. If subsequent $SUI on-chain compliant asset issuance volume and derivatives open interest both show stepwise growth, and funding rates remain in a healthy positive range, it indicates that institutional compliant incremental capital is substantively entering the market.
In this case, every 10% increase in spot depth will reduce the slippage impact of large sell pressure on price, confirming the effectiveness of the bullish structure. If there is a sharp rise in high-level holdings while spot trading volume decouples, it indicates short-term capital is prematurely exhausting expectations, weakening the validity of the uptrend.
The bearish scenario stems from short-term liquidity withdrawal during the compliance implementation cycle. If the time cost of U.S. stock facility integration exhausts the patience of on-chain active capital, the combination of derivatives market short covering and spot profit-taking will push prices to retest lower liquidity concentration zones.
Once derivative funding rates quickly turn negative and spot net outflows continue to expand, it means short-term long stop-loss orders have been triggered, and downside risk will further transmit to spot buy order support zones. If spot order book depth does not increase correspondingly, the market will face a phase of clearing tests.
The overall scenario fails if there is a sharp contraction in the macro liquidity environment. When risk-off sentiment dominates overall market capital outflows, the progress of compliant pipeline construction will temporarily lose marginal pricing power over the price.
In the next 7 days, key monitoring points include $SUI spot large capital flows, changes in derivatives open interest position structure, and the performance of the first batch of compliant asset on-chain clearing data.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 After PUMP surged to 0.0050 in this round, I've been waiting for a piece of data.
Will the competition pressure stop?
The latest day:
Another 3.15B volume traded.
It has been a heavy focus for consecutive days.
I find this more interesting than a sudden spike on a single day.
One day could be just sentiment.
Consistent activity at least shows this wave isn't just shorts being forced to liquidate.
The day it first stabilizes, I will be especially eager to see.
$PUMPBTC is testing the 50-week MA
In November, we broke below this moving average, confirming the bear market.
Now we’re testing it again—which is exactly what usually happens at the start of a 3-year bull market.
I expect a bounce from this zone and a 10–15% correction.
The bears still have plenty of time to fight back👊#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视
Quant giant Jane Street has significantly increased its stake in SanDisk, holding 5%, making it its second-largest stock position, with a major bet on the AI storage sector. SanDisk's stock price has surged over 3000% in the past year, transforming from a traditional flash memory manufacturer into a core AI inference storage target. Revenue expectations for AI data center business have soared, and long-term locked-price orders have solidified the performance base, greatly enhancing market recognition of its growth logic.
From an optimistic perspective, the AI industry focus is shifting from training to inference, with storage becoming the core bottleneck beyond computing power. HBF high-speed flash technology opens up incremental space, and institutional accumulation represents smart money's confidence in the industry's long-term dividends. The AI storage sector's valuation still has room for recovery.
Personal view: Short-term gains have overextended expectations, and valuation is already in a high-level competitive range. Jane Street's accumulation is a mid-term allocation move and does not imply the stock price will continue to rise unilaterally. Once cloud providers slow capital expenditures and storage price cycles fluctuate, high valuations will face sharp corrections. Differentiation in the AI storage sector will intensify; only companies with solid technical barriers and strong order certainty can realize value.
Mapping to the crypto market, AI computing power and storage narrative tokens will experience sentiment catalysts, but most are thematic pulses, so avoid chasing highs blindly. Future focus should track SanDisk's order fulfillment, NAND flash price trends, and changes in institutional holdings.#TOTAL MARKET CAP ANALYSIS
Total market cap has broken out of the ascending triangle pattern with significant volume, signaling strong bullish momentum.
Currently, it is trading below the horizontal supply zone, which is acting as a key resistance level.
A solid breakout above the supply zone could trigger further upside, while rejection from this level may lead to a pullback.The whole market is waiting for Waller's Jackson Hole debut, but I'll be straightforward—most likely, we won't hear much.
Honestly, this is increasingly looking like a big self-celebration event. Bank of America says 69% of fund managers expect him to speak "neutral," so what's the point? It's already priced in, so it's pointless to say anything.
But don't be fooled by the market betting on neutrality; Waller is truly a hawk at heart. At the July meeting, the vote was 9 to 3 to hold steady, and the 3 dissenters all wanted a 25bp hike. Have you read the minutes? "Many members feel that if inflation doesn't come down, tightening is necessary." The June dot plot was even more direct: out of 18 people, 9 expect another hike this year. The Senate says zero tolerance for high inflation—think about that.
The problem is the data is quite puzzling. July's nonfarm payrolls came in at -23,000, while expectations were +80,000; employment just cooled off suddenly. But CPI is still at 3.4%, far from 2%. What do you want him to say at this point? If he talks about hiking, employment data contradicts him; if he talks about cutting rates, he loses credibility.
And that's not all—Waller's style is to say less and do more. Since taking office, he cut the policy statement from 400 words to 150 and removed forward guidance. Do you expect him to clearly say whether there will be a hike in September? Think again.
For the crypto space, this will just be a volatility amplifier, not a directional signal. We still need to watch the September nonfarm payroll and CPI data.
Personal view for sharing only: $BTC has fallen from 80,000 to 79,000, support is seen at 76,000-74,000; $ETH is hovering around 2450, if it can't hold, look for 2350-2200; $SOL is near 96, if it really breaks, look for a bottom at 88-83. #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled?
A $30 trillion market—when this number came out for Anthropic, it was indeed quite intimidating.
What does a $30 trillion market mean?
It's even larger than the $28.5 trillion market space given when SpaceX went public.
Sounds like good news, but what does this $30 trillion have to do with Anthropic?
Because TAM, simply put, means "If I capture all potential future demand, theoretically I can earn this much."
But in reality, Anthropic expects revenue around $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028. Compared to the $30 trillion market space, it actually accounts for only a small portion.
What really determines how much this company is worth is never how big the market is, but how much it can capture. Will customers keep paying? Does the model truly have differentiation? Can pricing power be maintained? Most importantly, can the money earned cover the rapidly growing computing power and R&D costs?
This logic is actually very similar to the crypto space.
A project tells you:
"This is a trillion-dollar market."
"Future penetration rate is only 1%, which is $10 billion."
Sounds very tempting.
But in the end, the market only asks one question: Why should your 1% be yours?
Just like a trillion-dollar track doesn’t mean a certain coin is worth a trillion dollars.
A high ceiling doesn’t mean you can really climb there.
$ANTHROPIC 🔥 This might be the signal Bitcoin has been waiting for. Let's temporarily set aside the market noise and look at these two signals that have appeared simultaneously before major crypto market expansions: 📈 The ISM Manufacturing Index just rose to 55.6 🚀 The Russell 2000 Index just broke through 3,000 points, hitting a record high In 2016, we saw a similar combination, which was followed by the first major crypto bull market. In 2020, this signal appeared again, and the total crypto market caOKX has updated the rules for Simple Earn Flexible. On the surface, it looks like a minor adjustment to the coin-earning product, but in reality, it significantly impacts many users who habitually put idle coins into flexible savings. The official announcement is very straightforward: starting from August 26, 2026, some Simple Earn Flexible products will adopt a new APR calculation method. Simply put, previously, people looking at flexible coin earnings tended to focus only on the displayed yield; now, they need to pay closer attention to the interest calculation logic, reward sources, caps, and real-time explanations on the product page. Flexible savings are not fixed-term deposits, nor are they locked staking; their core value lies in liquidity. The ability to subscribe and redeem at any time inherently means that yields will not always remain fixed at a nice number. When rules like these change, I usually don't first ask "Has the yield decreased?" but instead look at three points. First, where exactly does the APR come from? Is it base yield, promotional rewards, or a layered comprehensive display? If there are extra rewards shown on the page, you need to clarify whether they are part of the long-term rules. The most common misunderstanding in crypto is treating promotional period numbers as normal yields. When the promotion ends and yields return to normal levels, people say the platform changed its face, but often it’s because they didn’t look carefully from the start. Second, look at the limits. Flexible coin earnings often have personal limits, total limits, tiered yields, or differences by coin type. Large and small investors may have completely different yield experiences. Especially for $USDT, $USDC, this kind ofThe entire market is declining, with CORE and BICO rising against the trend, while BTC, $ETH, and a host of mainstream coins collectively dip, painting the market green overall, with the vast majority of coins falling along with the market. But a strange scene has appeared: CORE and BICO did not follow the market plunge; instead, they independently rose against the trend, making the red-green contrast particularly striking. The community instantly exploded with two kinds of voices. Some on the OKX Planet got excited, saying: This is a strong whale's independent rally! Being resistant to the drop means they are leaders; the more the market falls, the more it proves their strength, signaling the official start of a bull market. Many observers, seeing the counter-trend resilience, had their long-suppressed greed resurface, thinking that with the market weakening, funds are clustering around these two coins, eager to rush in and seize the safe-haven opportunity, yet feeling no joy, only a strong sense of unease. There are two completely different scripts for counter-trend rises: $BICO has real business support in its sector, with verifiable on-chain business flows and almost no large team unlock sell pressure, representing sector funds clustering for risk aversion. Even so, under the market's systemic sell-off, the counter-trend rise is still a short-term pump by speculative whales, not a guaranteed profit. In contrast, $CORE does not have large-scale realized business revenue. When the market crashes, its counter-trend rise is more easily manipulated by small amounts of funds due to its small market cap. Market panic causes mainstream coin funds to flee, while a small amount of short-term hot money comes to speculate on the BTCFi narrative and the whales create a false image of resistance strength, attracting panicked retail investors to enter and take the risk. The most dangerous trap lies precisely here. The market plunges, and the counter-trend rise continues The Fear and Greed Index surged to 74, the highest since the crash in October 2025! Are you panicking?
On August 12, the index was still at 27 (Fear).
In less than two weeks, it jumped straight to 74 (Greed).
On Wednesday, it slightly pulled back to 65, but the level almost coincides with October 5 last year—
And on the 5th day after that, the entire network saw about $19 billion in leverage liquidations in a single day.
BTC rallied from below 68,000 to nearly 80,000 within a week.
DOGE rose 24% weekly, Thinking Cat +131%, Cash Cat +113%.
Low-liquidity meme coins took off first, indicating retail investors' risk appetite is back, and leverage is quietly building up.
I'm not bearish; this trend is indeed strong.
But history tells us: the index is not a buy or sell alarm; it’s a "crowding thermometer."
74 doesn’t mean a drop tomorrow, it just means the cost-benefit ratio of chasing further is worsening.
What I’m doing now:
1) Not maxing out leverage to follow the crowd.
2) Taking profits in batches and keeping a base position to watch the show ETH oscillating after hitting a key integer level is actually normal
I think the most awkward thing about ETH right now is not that it can't go up, but that its narrative is harder to explain in one sentence than BTC's. BTC talks about reserve, ETFs, anti-dilution, which the market easily understands; ETH has to cover on-chain revenue, L2, staking, institutional ETFs, application recovery—all of which can add value but also potentially hold it back
So when ETH rises, the market gets excited; when it oscillates, doubts come quickly. Because everyone is asking: Are we buying asset value this round, or buying into ecosystem recovery?
I will pay more attention to whether real on-chain demand is keeping up. Only when usage heats up will ETH's rise stop feeling like a "late catch-up rally"
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Option 1 — Strong & Natural
Bitcoin may be warming up for something much bigger. 👀
Here’s the setup worth watching:
ISM Manufacturing just hit 55.6 Russell 2000 just pushed above 3,000 and hit an ATH
These two signals lined up before major crypto expansions in 2016 and 2020.
In 2025, the setup never really appea below 50.
Now it’s back.
BTC breaking above $80K could be more than just another rally. It might be the early stage of a much bigger move toward new all-time highs.
#DailyOrbit BTC: In this bull market, the target price is at least 150,000-180,000. In the previous cycle, after breaking through 69,000, it continued to rise about 50% to 126,000. Based on this ratio, a conservative estimate for the increase after breaking the previous high this round is about 30%, which is also 150,000, with institutional consensus capping at 180,000. This is something we can manually calculate. With this target, the bottom-fishing mentality becomes more assured, and people dare to buy th$BTC News and capital flow dual-dimensional assessment: Is 79000 an accumulation zone or a downward continuation?
BTC is currently fluctuating around 79000, with volume gradually shrinking after falling back from 81270. Considering both news and capital flow, the area around 79000 leans more towards a capital absorption zone rather than a simple downward continuation.
On the news front, institutional entry channels continue to improve, and expectations of loose liquidity also support risk assets. From the capital perspective, some smart money continues to place orders around 78000, showing a bullish strategy of "adding on pullbacks, reducing on rallies," making 78500-78000 an important short-term support zone.
Operationally, attention can be paid to the absorption situation at 78500-78000; if it stabilizes, participation can be done in batches, with key resistance above at 80000-81000; if it breaks below 77500, caution is needed for short-term structural weakening.
The short-term overall bias is bullish, but risks after breaking key support still need to be guarded against. The above is personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Haven't looked closely at $RKLB for a long time. With the US stock market closed overnight, I instead connected the token market and a few news items. Today's movement is quite interesting.
📰 News: The Neutron engine has started pre-flight testing, and the market is hopeful that a single launch could change the financial outlook; the gradual phase-out of Falcon 9 also adds uncertainty to space stocks' performance in August.
🔧 Technicals: The daily RSI has dropped to 23.3, clearly oversold; MACD shows a death cross but the green bars are shrinking; the price has simultaneously fallen below MA7 and MA25, the bearish alignment is not yet resolved, and short-term sentiment has been heavily suppressed.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens are basically flat, down only 0.06%. The US stock market closure overnight means tokens lack anchoring from the underlying stocks, so volatility is more about existing funds pricing sentiment.
🎯 Today's view: I lean bullish. The oversold condition combined with Neutron approaching a critical test node makes me think the potential for a rebound is more worth watching than further decline, but due to lack of underlying stock data, I only discuss direction.
📊 Token 67.31 (-3.12%) | US stock market closed overnight
#SpaceStocks
#NeutronMaidenFlight
#USToken Ether has liquidated a large number of high-leverage long positions formed in the short term.
However, the largest liquidation will occur when the price reaches 2,550$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $BTC 🩸【BTC Meat Grinder Lab | August 26 Macro】
BTC surged to $81K this week and then started high-level consolidation, dropping about 1%–2% today. The weekly chart remains strong, but the short term has entered the **"post-rally macro validation period"**.
🏦 US Treasury: ⭐⭐⭐½
10Y Treasury yield around 4.63%, 30Y around 5.18%. Yield pullback is favorable for BTC, but long-term rates remain high.
💵 US Dollar: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dollar Index around 98.9, overall remains slightly weak, still providing macro support for BTC.
🐳 ETF Funds: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Recently, BTC ETF funds have clearly warmed up, with institutional demand once again becoming an important support for this rally.
🏦 Fed: ⭐⭐⭐
This week's market focus remains on Jackson Hole and subsequent inflation data. If the Fed signals hawkishness, it may push yields higher, putting pressure on BTC.
🎯 BTC Macro Key Levels
🟢 Above $78K → Bullish structure maintained
🚀 Breakthrough $81K → Opens up further upside space
🔴 Below $77K → Beware of high-level pullback
☠️ Break below $75K → This rally structure clearly cools down
⭐ Today's Macro Ratings
Macro Liquidity: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Dollar Environment: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
ETF Funds: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Fed Risk: ⭐⭐⭐
High-Level Risk: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Overall: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ / 5
🩸 Today's Sharp Commentary
BTC's biggest problem now is not lack of buyers, but rising too fast.
Fiscal liquidity expectations + weak dollar + ETF inflows still support medium-term bulls; but after BTC surged past 80K, the short term has entered a phase of profit-taking and new capital competition.
"Above 80K watch the trend, 78K watch strength, 75K watch structure.
No chasing highs, no guessing tops, just wait for VWAP14 and key price confirmations."
🩸 The market is responsible for the meat grinder, we are responsible for finding the patterns.Look at BTR, this pillar is almost pulled off the screen!!!
From the daily chart, after the last rally, it has been consolidating within a range. Until this recent rally, only on-chain activity showed anomalies; everything else was purely a pump-and-dump tactic by manipulative traders. Now that it has reached the upper range, don't blindly chase longs, as it's easy to get trapped. The risk of shorting is also very high. The best approach now is to wait steadily for the trend to develop before entering!!!
Personal suggestion: You can lightly short around the current price of 0.084, targeting 0.05. If it breaks above 0.09, exit promptly!!!
【The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice】$BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $SOL is now $97.08, down 4.52% in 24 hours, with a high of 103.16 and a low of 95.27, trading volume at 128 million, RSI at 86.2, the most overbought in the market, the surge is too strong and needs a breather.
Technical aspect: RSI 86 is indeed outrageous, short-term support at 95 for a pullback, if broken, look at 90.
But I have to remind you, don’t get carried away just by looking at net inflows. The SOL ETF cumulative net inflow breaking the 1.22 billion record is true, but about 37% of that is initial funds injected by the issuer themselves, not real retail buying; BSOL breaking 1 billion is real. Two deflation proposals (SGP-0002/0003) are in voting, aiming to double the annual deflation from 15% to 30%, which is a mid-term positive.
My thinking: hold if 95 doesn’t break, if 95 breaks, look at 90. Whether the proposals pass is something to consider later, don’t bet too heavily in advance. I see the range as 90–103. This token has high volatility; only those who can hold will profit.August 26 Jinman Gold Midday Review: Gold pulls back from highs for adjustment, look for buying opportunities on dips in the 4610-4630 range!
Gold price hit a stage high of 4696.74 before facing pressure and pulling back, latest at 4633.65, down 0.54% intraday, with an intraday high of 4673.74 and a low probing 4624.76.
After a strong rally earlier, the market has entered a high-level consolidation phase with intensified long-short battles, awaiting the PCE inflation data to determine the subsequent direction. Before the data, it is likely to remain in a range-bound digestion.
On the chart, resistance is strong at 4670-4690, with key support at 4620.
Trading advice is to buy on dips in the 4610-4630 range, targeting 4650 and 4670. Strictly control position size near key data and implement risk management.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 🔥 This might be the signal Bitcoin has been waiting for.
Let's temporarily set aside the market noise and look at these two signals that have appeared simultaneously before major crypto market expansions:
📈 The ISM Manufacturing Index just rose to 55.6
🚀 The Russell 2000 Index just broke through 3,000 points, hitting a record high
In 2016, we saw a similar combination, which was followed by the first major crypto bull market.
In 2020, this signal appeared again, and the total crypto market cap soared from about $400 billion to over $2.5 trillion.
But in 2025, this combination never really formed—the ISM stayed below 50.
And now, it’s back.
If history rhymes again, then BTC breaking $80,000 might not be the main rally yet.
This could just be the warm-up before truly entering the price discovery phase. 👀🚀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BullRun #CryptoMarket
#DailyOrbit $HYPE HYPE $80, today is a big day — AQAv2 officially launches! $5 billion+ USDC reserves start generating yield from today, with 90% of profits fully used to buy back and burn HYPE. The first $20 million arrived on October 3rd, with an annualized buyback pressure of $135-160 million. Coinbase manages the funds, Circle handles the technology, this lineup is unbeatable.
The market rose 35% in 7 days from $58 to $80, ATH $83.3 (8/24). RSI fell back from the overbought zone to 55, MACD formed a death cross but the candlesticks still stand above MA20/50. High-level consolidation, the trend is intact.
Catalysts stacking up: Trump/CFTC compliance path, Coinbase 50x perpetual integration, Kinetiq Elysium L2 launch, Anthropic IPO pre-market trading all running on Hyperliquid. Weekly trading volume $7 billion, DeFi fees $24.63 million, the largest whale just closed a position with $45.3 million profit.
**But the $1.2 billion unlock on 8/29 is a time bomb.** 47% goes to insiders, historically three unlocks caused two crashes. AQAv2 buybacks are a long-term positive, unlocks are short-term negatives, both sides are in a tug of war.
**Still bullish but highly cautious, $80.** Hold $77-78 to confirm entry, if broken wait for $72.7. A breakout and hold above $84 targets $90→$97. Avoid heavy positions before the unlock, add after the dust settles. DOGE plunges again, speculative sentiment continues to cool down, understand the current capital logic⚠️
BTC -0.76%, ETH -0.93%, DOGE drops by 2.84%, the market's speculative sector continues to face selling pressure.
The overall market is undergoing a mild correction, but the impact on sentiment-driven coins remains strong. Approaching an important data window, capital is actively reducing risk exposure, withdrawing from high-volatility thematic assets.
Interestingly, there is a contrast on the market: very small market cap coins slightly rise against the trend, while gold also slightly declines.
On one hand, large funds are avoiding mainstream high-risk assets; on the other hand, a small amount of short-term funds are speculating on small-cap coins for short-term pulses. However, small-cap coins have very low overall trading volume and insufficient liquidity, making it very difficult to exit once the market reverses.
ETH continues to underperform BTC, indicating capital preference for Bitcoin as a safe haven. Gold weakening simultaneously also indirectly reflects that the market has not experienced a pure safe-haven flight.
This complex and fragmented market situation is most prone to misjudgment. Do not define the overall market by the rise or fall of a single coin; observe the strength and weakness of the market from multiple dimensions to reduce counter-trend operations.
$BTC
$ETH
$DOGE #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be realized?
AI super unicorn Anthropic, on the verge of filing for an IPO, has unveiled a grand vision of a "potential enterprise AI market size of up to $30 trillion," instantly igniting heated discussions in global capital markets.
Can this $30 trillion grand narrative really be converted into cold hard cash?
Grand narrative supports high valuation issuance: As it heads toward the public market, anchoring a trillion-dollar TAM is the key trump card supporting its expectation to raise funds on par with SpaceX, aiming to capture the scarcity premium of being a "pure-blood AI leader."
The real gap in commercialization: Currently, top large model companies are still deeply mired in massive computing power procurement and extremely high R&D losses. From "technological amazement" to "substantial replacement of enterprise software budgets," the commercialization conversion rate still faces rigorous testing.
Secondary market perspective shift: Wall Street's view on the AI concept has shifted from early-stage storytelling to focusing on single customer lifetime value (LTV) and computing power gross margin.
This $30 trillion vast frontier—do you think it is the inevitable future of the AI revolution, or just a valuation bubble for IPO fundraising?
#Anthropic #AI #USStocks #IPO #TechStocks #LargeModelsSometimes, you really have to trust the trendline!
This weekly "super Optimus Prime" has directly broken out of the downtrend channel that suppressed it for more than half a year.
If $57,800 is truly the bottom of this cycle, then my previous judgment on the cycle was indeed a bit slow; the bottom came faster, and the market started earlier than the traditional cycle.
The biggest change is still the ETF.
In the past, the focus was mainly on halving, on-chain supply, and retail sentiment.
Now, institutional funds have become stable marginal buyers: the bear market duration may be compressed, and the cycle bottom may be lifted.
The old indicators haven't completely failed; it's just that relying solely on the four-year cycle and extreme signals can no longer explain the current market—
ETF subscriptions, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and policy expectations are all gaining weight.
Honestly, if this cycle has already bottomed, I did miss the most comfortable segment.
I was always waiting for the "last dip," but the market kept forcing shorts out and just took off.
Missing out is definitely frustrating, but chasing a FOMO-driven buy near $80,000 to make up for that regret carries even greater risk.
The weekly breakout indicates the structure has strengthened, but it doesn't mean it will keep rising indefinitely.
Historically, similar "long-term consolidation followed by a single week rise of over 20%" scenarios have a high medium-term continuation rate, but the median maximum pullback afterward is about 14.5%.
Based on this cycle's high, the normal pullback zone is roughly between $68,000 and $72,000.
My plan is simple:
First, in the $72,000 to $74,000 range, if the trendline is retested, I will try a small position to test the waters.
Second, in the $68,000 to $70,000 range, if ETF inflows continue and the weekly chart shows a stop in the decline, I will add positions in batches.
Third, if the weekly candle closes below $65,000, I will treat it as a false breakout and stop bottom-fishing.
Fourth, if the market doesn't pull back and directly holds above $82,000, I won't chase large positions either. I'll wait for the $80,000 to $82,000 range to turn from resistance into support before considering following.
Missing the lowest point doesn't mean the entire cycle is lost.
This time, I'd rather earn less in one segment,
than lose discipline at the hottest emotional moment because of missing out. 🧘
$BTC
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Xiao Hei: A new bull market for Bitcoin has already started, and the U.S. Treasury will continue to provide liquidity!!!
Arthur Hayes wrote a long piece last night titled "Same Same But Different," but the core is actually just one thing:
Besent is following the path Yellen took in 2023—when U.S. Treasury yields get too high for the U.S. fiscal system to handle, the Treasury doesn't necessarily need the Fed to openly cut rates or do QE; the Treasury itself will start finding ways to inject liquidity into the market.
2023 is the best example. At that time, the Fed's rates were still above 5%, and it was still shrinking its balance sheet, yet Bitcoin and the Nasdaq still began a major bull run.
Xiao Hei's explanation is:
Yellen issued a large amount of short-term debt, pushing money out of the Fed's RRP from money market funds, with the RRP dropping from about $2.5 trillion to nearly $100 billion. Money moved off the Fed's balance sheet back into the circulating financial system, and risk assets began to take off.
Now Besent is facing the same problem:
U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and long-term Treasury yields are pushing into dangerous territory again.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury suddenly increased the single repurchase size for 10–30 year Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, causing yields to briefly drop and Bitcoin to rebound afterward.
But soon Treasuries were sold off again, with the 10-year yield returning to around 4.7%. The market is basically telling Besent: this amount of money isn’t enough.
So what we really need to watch next is whether the Treasury market will continue to pressure Besent to increase intervention.
Xiao Hei offers three scenarios:
The most aggressive is making 5% an effective yield cap, with unlimited repurchases if long-term yields exceed this level;
A more realistic scenario is gradually expanding Treasury buybacks while increasing short-term debt issuance;
And another option already on the table—directly using nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to buy back long-term debt.
Besent has confirmed the TGA currently holds about $940 billion, and the Treasury is studying using it to fund buybacks.
This is the most valuable part of the article for Crypto.
The U.S. now faces an increasingly difficult vicious cycle:
More debt → higher long-term rates → greater interest expenses → more borrowing needed → market demands higher yields.
If the Treasury doesn’t want this cycle to spiral out of control, it must constantly find ways to suppress long-term rates.
Every "rescue" action for Treasuries may marginally increase dollar liquidity, and Bitcoin happens to be one of the assets most sensitive to dollar liquidity in the world.
So Xiao Hei calls BTC the global liquidity smoke alarm, and I think this is a more important takeaway for Bitcoin than rate cuts.
If the future scenario is: 10-year Treasuries continue pushing toward 5% → Besent keeps expanding buybacks → TGA starts to decline → short-term debt proportion keeps rising, then don’t wait for the Fed to officially announce QE to realize liquidity has already shifted.
Xiao Hei himself disclosed heavy holdings in: BTC, ETH, ENA, ETHFI.
What he’s really betting on isn’t a sudden fundamental change in any coin, but that the U.S., to save its $40 trillion debt market, will ultimately have to re-inject liquidity into the entire financial system. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
Sigh, how long has the Strait situation been going on now? The back-and-forth news keeps shaking us retail investors😭
Personally, what I fear most now isn’t negative news itself, but the repeated fluctuations in the news. Today they say negotiations have made progress, and the coin prices pump; tomorrow sanctions intensify, and those who just bought in get trapped. BTC might be relatively resistant to the drop, but ETH and altcoins are not so sure—when risk sentiment shifts, their declines tend to be faster.
So these days, don’t just chase pumps or sell-offs based on headlines. First, see if the Strait negotiations truly materialize, then check if $BTC can hold its support and if $ETH can keep up. If it’s just a news-driven spike without volume or capital follow-through, a rise and fall is not surprising.
Therefore, the market now is neither purely negative nor purely positive, but a back-and-forth exchange.
If sanctions continue to escalate or new conflicts arise in the Strait, oil prices and risk-off sentiment will likely be pushed up. When capital tightens and the dollar strengthens, high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH usually don’t immediately get treated as "safe havens"; instead, they might get hit first. Especially with high contract leverage, a single piece of news can wash out both longs and shorts.
But if the resumption of navigation negotiations really lands and shipping gradually recovers, $CL and geopolitical risks ease, market sentiment might also take a breather. That doesn’t mean BTC and ETH will necessarily rise immediately; it will still depend on the dollar, interest rates, and on-exchange capital. So in crypto, it all comes down to whether people have the guts.BTC has recently pulled back from its highs, mainly because the market is digesting the previous gains driven by spot ETF inflows and improved risk appetite. The day before, the market was still benefiting from positive factors such as expanding ETF inflows and short covering, but after a short-term rally, profit-taking and fluctuating macro sentiment are causing volatility. BTC remains the most important directional anchor in the entire market. Whether spot funds return, whether volume contracts during the pullback, and whether key psychological levels hold will directly impact the sentiment of altcoins going forward. Currently, it looks more like a high-level consolidation rather than being driven solely by any single piece of news. $BTCTRX's recent pullback has been relatively controlled, with an overall defensive performance. Its strengths lie in stablecoin transfers, on-chain payments, and the real usage demand brought by a mature ecosystem. During market fluctuations, assets with stable on-chain scenarios like this usually show more resilience than pure thematic coins. However, TRX's weakness is also obvious: it lacks explosive narratives, and if capital shifts to high-elasticity sectors, it is easily marginalized. Going forward, attention should be paid to the scale of stablecoin circulation, on-chain transfer activity, and ecosystem application data, as these are the core factors supporting its trend. $TRXThe market is still waiting for a rate cut, but Federal Reserve officials have started to talk about "rate hikes" again
The market has been discussing when the Federal Reserve will cut rates recently, but Boston Fed President Susan Collins suddenly poured cold water on the market.
She stated that the premise for maintaining the current interest rate is that inflation continues to decline. If inflation does not come down soon, further tightening of monetary policy, or even a rate hike, could re-enter the discussion.
This statement is important because the U.S. economy is not currently in a clear recession, economic growth remains close to trend levels, and the labor market remains relatively stable, but inflation is still high.
This means the Fed's biggest problem now is: the economy is not bad enough to force a quick rate cut; inflation is not low enough to allow it to confidently ease policy.
If this situation continues, U.S. Treasury yields may remain high, valuations of tech growth stocks will be suppressed, and the liquidity environment for $BTC and other high-risk assets will deteriorate.
So what the market really needs to guard against now is no longer just a "delayed rate cut."
If inflation becomes stubborn again, the market may even face a scenario that few have seriously considered before: the Federal Reserve raising rates again. Gold's breakout is mainly driven by speculative funds, with the global annual meeting becoming a key risk point!
On August 26, gold has recently maintained strength, with significant volatility at high levels. The weakening dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, concerns over fiscal deficits, and safe-haven demand collectively support gold prices. The recent gold breakout is largely driven by speculative funds such as futures, while physical demand has not yet caught up.
This means gold will be more sensitive to macro events in the short term. The rise driven by speculative funds can quickly form a trend but is also prone to concentrated profit-taking when policy expectations change. The market is currently awaiting the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting speech. If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish bias, the dollar and real interest rates may rebound, putting pressure on gold's rally; if the policy tone is dovish, gold prices will have the opportunity to continue advancing.
The background of recent gold trading has also changed. Fiscal sustainability, long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and central bank gold purchases remain medium-term supports, but short-term prices have already accumulated considerable momentum funds. For traders, gold is no longer just a safe-haven asset but increasingly resembles a macro high-beta asset sensitive simultaneously to the dollar, real interest rates, and fiscal risks. Jane Street's Sandisk position is notable for its scale and speed: filings show 7.41M shares, or 5%, on July 30 after a 6.25M-share addition. Still, a large holding is evidence of positioning, not proof that the AI-storage thesis has been settled.
The key distinction is demand quality. NAND and enterprise flash depend less on AI training than HBM, and more on data-center expansion, inference, storage needs and purchasing cycles. My read: the durable signal will be whether orders, pricing, margins and cash flow hold after capacity expands, not the headline size of one investor's stake. Not advice, just analysis.
#JaneStreetAddsSandisk#US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
While the US intensifies sanctions on Iran, even blocking crypto addresses, it is also negotiating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping. Expectations of war are cooling down, oil prices remain unchanged, and the war premium has been fully discounted. The direct impact on the crypto space is minimal; that amount of capital can't stir the market. The key is that if the Strait remains stable, oil prices stay steady, inflation expectations won't rise, which is good for risk assets; if talks collapse and oil prices surge, the crypto market will take a hit. However, geopolitical factors mainly affect short-term sentiment, just a brief spike, the overall trend still depends on ETFs and market performance, news can't change the trend. Just hold your spot positions steady and don't mess around 😄
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Whether intentional or not, the U.S. government has just validated the two strongest arguments for Bitcoin, and the market has responded accordingly. Multiple driving factors are behind the current surge in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. These include: last week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the "Regulation Crypto Assets," paving a compliant development path for emerging crypto projects; the White House convened a meeting with crypto industry executives, sending a positive signal to the sector. Stimulated by this, the market experienced a short-term rapid rally, catching shorts off guard and forcing them to cover their positions. But the most important catalyst came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent. He ignited last week's rally and created conditions to push Bitcoin toward a new all-time high. Let's review this week, which has been the most critical week for Bitcoin in the past year. Step one: Long-term Treasury intervention. Besent's first move was to announce plans to intervene in the long-term U.S. Treasury market. Last Wednesday, Besent announced that the Treasury would double the scale of long-term bond purchases in its regular repurchase operations, increasing from $2 billion to $4 billion. This announcement came as the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. On one hand, this move itself is limited in scale. The U.S. Treasury issues trillions of dollars in debt annually, so repurchases of tens of billions are just a drop in the ocean. But the real key is notOfficial Mascot of the Official Trump Meme (TRUMP/USDT) trades on OKX at $TRUMP $2.296 (+5.61%), maintaining strong upward momentum well above its stacked moving average support cluster: MA5 ($TRUMP $2.264), MA10 ($2.241), and MA20 ($2.221).
Sustaining momentum above $2.264 keeps immediate bullish focus on retesting local peak resistance at $2.312 and pushing toward the 24h high of $2.479.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #OKX.ai ATOM has recently been under relative pressure. Cross-chain and modularity remain the core value points of Cosmos, but the market's demands for the security, value capture, and ecosystem synergy of infrastructure projects have clearly increased. Recent discussions about the security issues of shared EVM components have also made some funds cautious about cross-chain infrastructure. The issue with ATOM is not the lack of narrative, but how the narrative truly translates into token demand: whether inter-chain activity, liquidity, staking, and fee distribution improve is more important than just ecosystem news. Event handling and ecosystem recovery pace will directly affect short-term sentiment. $ATOM #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk, AI storage valuation under renewed scrutiny
The boss has something to say
JaneStreet's 13F filing is out. As of July 30, it held about 7.41 million shares of SanDisk, an increase of 6.25 million shares from before, a 540% rise. SanDisk has directly become JaneStreet's second largest single stock holding, second only to SPY.
This signal is worth noting, but don't overinterpret it.
JaneStreet is not a retail investor or a fund; it is a quantitative market maker.
Its holding logic differs from Cathie Wood's. JaneStreet's holdings are more from a market-making and hedging perspective and do not necessarily indicate a bullish view. But the fact that it is willing to pile SanDisk up to its second largest holding at least shows that at this price level, it considers the risk-reward ratio acceptable.
Timing is right after the pullback
The timing of July 30 is significant. SanDisk had just started to pull back after a big rally on Investor Day. JaneStreet increased its position from over 1 million shares to 7.41 million shares during the decline, buying more as the price fell.
But there are structural issues with the fundamentals
SanDisk surged from 1190 to 1820, a large increase. The Investor Day presentation was indeed solid, with a 93.9 billion long-term contract and an 80% gross margin target. But the pullback in storage stocks shows the market is still struggling. Whether AI storage demand can support the high valuation needs longer-term verification.
JaneStreet's position data is lagging; it's been almost a month since July 30, during which SanDisk has gone through another round of ups and downs. Tracking large funds' positions is useful as a reference but should not be taken as trading instructions.
My own pace
I previously bottomed SanDisk at 1190 and sold at 1368, then shorted at 1380 and got stopped out—I've experienced both sides. No rush now; I'll wait for a proper pullback. JaneStreet's holdings are a medium- to long-term signal, not a reason to chase short-term highs. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin is oscillating around 80,000; all longs have been closed, waiting for a pullback. No heavy directional bets before PCE and Walsh's speech.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.WLFI has remained relatively active recently, with the core of market trading still focused on brand awareness, DeFi layout expectations, and community communication capabilities. Its characteristic is strong news-driven momentum; when there is positive news, funds tend to gather quickly, but when sentiment cools down, high volatility is also common. Recently, the overall market risk appetite has not completely faded, providing some support for these highly topical assets. However, what truly determines sustainability is whether the ecosystem products are implemented, whether the token's use cases expand, and the subsequent rhythm of token circulation. Popularity can bring traffic, but retaining funds depends on real progress. $WLFI$CORE Core Chain (Core DAO public chain) ecosystem overview (as of August 2026)
1. Underlying Infrastructure
1. Block Explorer
CoreScan (official explorer), for querying transactions, contracts, and staking addresses.
2. Cross-chain Bridges
- XLink: mainstream cross-chain bridge enabling interoperability of BTC and major EVM chain assets;
- Integrated LayerZero, supporting full-chain message passing;
3. Oracle
Pyth Network (mainstream price oracle, essential for DeFi);
4. RPC Nodes
Official RPC and Ankr provide public node services;
5. Wallet Compatibility
All EVM wallets such as MetaMask, TokenPocket, OKX Wallet can add the Core mainnet.
2. Core Native Track: BTCFi (the biggest highlight of the ecosystem)
1. BTC Staking System (core narrative of the chain)
- Native non-custodial BTC Staking: lock BTC to earn CORE rewards without transferring BTC to third-party custody;
- Dual Staking: stake CORE+BTC simultaneously to increase mining yields;
- Solv Protocol SolvBTC launched on Core: BTC liquid staking certificate, stake BTC to get solvBTC, which can continue to be used in DeFi.