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2500 held for less than a week before being lost again. Is $ETH's "comeback battle" about to revert to its original state?
Let's look at the logic first. ETH rose from 1500 to 2532 this round, driven by three engines: ETF capital inflow, upgrade expectations, and L2 returning to the main chain narrative.
Now with the macro turning hawkish, the first engine is about to stall (risk assets overall under pressure), but the other two remain. This is why it is more resilient than DOGE: it has fundamentals backing it, while DOGE only has sentiment.
Technically, 2400 is short-term support, corresponding to the 10-day moving average. Below that, 2350 was the platform before last week's breakout, and further down 2300 is the boundary between bulls and bears. The resistance above is at the 2500 round number, where it failed to hold steady for three days last week.
Summary of the approach: ETH's mid-term logic is intact, but it is taking hits in the short term along with the macro environment. Hold the base position above 2400; if it breaks 2350, reduce by half. If 2350 holds, every dip near 2400 is an opportunity to buy in batches. Do not chase the rally; wait for the macro shoe to drop. $HYPE is indeed a good project, but not at a good price! A platform earning 1 billion in revenue annually is now valued at 80 billion. Don't you think the price is expensive?
I'll show you the math directly:
1. $HYPE currently unlocks 14.18 million HYPE tokens monthly, which at the current price amounts to 1.1 billion USD of selling pressure.
2. HYPE does use 99% of its revenue for buybacks, but the monthly revenue is only 55 million. Even at the peak of last year's bull market, revenue was just 120 million USD.
How can it absorb 1.1 billion in selling pressure?
3. Of course, because the actual claim rate of unlocked shares is only 1.8%, the selling pressure hasn't crashed the price yet.
But now that the price has risen to 80, more people will claim. If just 5% convert to selling pressure, the coin price won't hold.
Anyway, I plan to keep holding my short position and won't close it until it drops to 70. #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 CAPITAL ISN’T LEAVING CRYPTO — IS IT ROTATING?
Late-August ETF data is showing a notable divergence.
On Aug. 27, $BTC attracted $242.3M, $ETH $234.5M, $SOL $60.9M and $XRP $18.5M. But on Aug. 28, $BTC reversed with $201.9M in outflows, ending a nine-day streak that brought in more than $3B. Meanwhile, $ETH, $SOL and $XRP still recorded roughly $145M combined inflows.
The key takeaway: capital hasn’t necessarily left crypto — it may simply be broadening beyond $BTC. BTC drops another 77,000: The real liquidations are not just longs, but the "rate cut trades"
BTC has fallen below $80,000 again, with ETH simultaneously losing 2400. On the surface, it's leverage liquidation, but the real change behind it is macro pricing.
Waller clearly emphasized at Jackson Hole: Inflation is still too high, the 2% target will not be compromised; if inflation does not clearly and quickly decline, the Fed still has work to do.
The market immediately re-evaluated the rate path: the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35.4% to 55.7%, the 2-year US Treasury yield surged to about 4.36%, and the dollar strengthened simultaneously.
This transmission chain is very clear:
Rate hike expectations ↑ → US Treasury yields ↑ → Dollar ↑ → Risk asset valuations under pressure → High leverage longs concentrated liquidation.
So this round is not simply "oversold, so it should rebound."
BTC next looks at 77,000 first; if lost, then 74,000–75,000 comes back into view; only a renewed volume-driven recovery above 80,000 would indicate the market is digesting the hawkish shock.
What really needs fixing is not the candlestick, but the market's expectations for interest rates. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Iran says the strait remains closed, turning crude oil transportation into a bargaining chip. This situation is most likely to irritate the market
because it is neither as straightforward as a complete supply cut nor as relieving as a resumption of navigation. Shipping, insurance, settlement, sanctions—each link feels tightened a bit more; on the surface, operations continue, but costs quietly accumulate in the background
The crude oil market fears "partial openness" the most. Prices will be hit back and forth by news in the short term, but what companies and traders truly worry about is stability. Just because shipments can go through today doesn't mean they can continue under the same conditions next week; once buyers start stockpiling in advance, rerouting, or buying insurance, energy inflation has already been fed again
These risks won't explode daily, but they will charge a daily fee
#伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码 There are clear signs of capital rotating from BTC to $ETH.
ETH and BTC have diverged: BTC's ETF is experiencing outflows, while ETH's ETF continues to see inflows. On August 28, ETH ETF net inflow was $102 million, marking 10 consecutive days of positive inflows, with a 7-day total of $1.22 billion. BlackRock's ETHA absorbed $1.02 billion in 9 days.
The supply side is also tightening: the total staked amount across the network exceeds 42.5 million ETH (accounting for 35.2% of supply), exchange balances have dropped from 7.69 million in June to 6.28 million, with 275,000 ETH withdrawn from exchanges since August. BitMine has also hoarded 5.84 million coins.
However, the short-term technical outlook is weak: resistance between 2,500 and 2,550 has been repeatedly tested, RSI is overbought between 79 and 85, and 72.3% of accounts on a neighboring exchange are long with a long-short ratio of 2.61, indicating crowded positions. In the last 24 hours, $75 million in liquidations occurred, 55% of which were longs.
Key levels: Holding 2,380 to 2,400 indicates a healthy pullback; breaking below points to 2,250 to 2,300. A volume breakout above 2,550 targets 2,600 to 2,650. The ETH/BTC rate is low at 0.03, with room for catch-up gains but requires BTC to stabilize first. BTC is stuck at 77,500 with no movement; the real big volatility might be waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls.
The strangest thing about BTC right now is that even though the probability of a September rate hike has risen to about 57%, the price hasn't continued to drop sharply.
The reason is simple: the market is waiting for the last piece of the puzzle — the August non-farm payrolls.
Reuters' latest forecast expects only 58,000 new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. This means that if the data deviates slightly, interest rate expectations could be drastically repriced.
I am more focused on three scenarios:
**Non-farm > 100,000 and wages strong:** Employment resilience exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike may continue to rise, BTC needs to watch out for 75,000–76,000.
**Non-farm 40,000–80,000:** Basically meets expectations, neither hawks nor doves get decisive evidence, BTC will most likely continue to consolidate between 77,000–80,000.
**Non-farm < 20,000 or even negative:** The logic of Walsh's "stable employment" is challenged, rate hike trades may cool down quickly, BTC only has a chance to challenge 82,000 after reclaiming 80,000.
So the current sideways movement is not directionless; the market is just unwilling to bet on the Fed before the data release. The real trade on Friday is not the non-farm number itself, but whether the 57% rate hike probability will be pushed to 70% or hammered back down. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Sigh, trading crypto now also means having to study crude oil and the Strait 😂
Oil prices have returned to $90, and $BTC might have to pay the price for the US-Iran conflict
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温
The thing to watch most these days might not be BTC's candlestick chart, but crude oil.
The US-Iran military confrontation has escalated, tensions near the Strait of Hormuz have risen again, and Brent crude oil has climbed back above $90. The issue isn't just that driving and fueling are more expensive, but that transportation, chemical, and manufacturing costs will all be pushed higher.
If oil prices keep rising, inflation will be hard to calm down. The Federal Reserve was already struggling with interest rates, and now energy inflation is back to cause trouble, squeezing the room for rate cuts and possibly even strengthening expectations for rate hikes. When the dollar and US Treasury yields rise, risk assets like BTC and tech stocks usually suffer.
So in this wave of geopolitical events, BTC hasn't acted like "digital gold" but more like a highly volatile risk asset. When news gets tense, funds reduce positions first.
There's no need to guess the direction of the war; no one can predict that. More practical is to avoid high leverage, don't go all-in on spot, and focus on whether oil prices can hold above $90.
If it really stabilizes above that level, the crypto market might still face turbulence; if it quickly falls back after the news stimulus, then this drop looks more like an emotional shock.In the same market, Bitcoin quietly hovered around $78,000, SOL quietly climbed, while DOGE fell alone. This divergence has been especially clear in the past two days: altcoins seem to no longer rise or fall but are now searching for their own direction. Looking back at August's performance, Bitcoin climbed from $64,000 all the way up to $81,000, a monthly gain of over 20%, but it has remained almost flat in the past week. Meanwhile, SOL rose 46.9% throughout August, while DOGE fell 7.2% this week. Both crypto assets have had completely different fates, and this contrast itself sends a certain signal. A friend started holding SOL at $76 and has accumulated it all the way to now, with a paper unrealized profit of about $5,000. He joked that holding onto it is easier than frequent trading. This is certainly an individual case, but it also shows that market sentiment is warming up toward mainstream public blockchains. Capital seems to be quietly flowing from meme coins to public chain projects with stronger narrative support, and SOL's continued strength is one manifestation of this preference. What's even more noteworthy is that traditional financial institutions like Charles Schwab Wealth Management enter the crypto market and choose SOL rather than DOGE. Institutional coin selection logic often focuses more on ecosystem development, technical foundation, and long-term value rather than short-term sentiment and community heat. Such signals may be more worth pondering than a certain point on a candlestick chart. Of course, macro disturbances cannot be ignored. Walsh has recently emphasized inflation risks, and market expectations for a September rate hike have risen. Changes in interest rate expectations often have implicationsThe US-Iran situation looks scary but actually has little impact.
On the day the US military struck Iranian islands, oil prices jumped, gold fell, Asian stocks turned green, and Bitcoin? It steadily held around 77,580, rising 23% in August, outperforming gold's 9% and the Nasdaq's 4%.
The market had long priced in geopolitical premiums; the main focus of capital has returned to liquidity and ETFs.
Why do I expect Bitcoin to continue breaking through this week? Three reasons:
1. Geopolitical risk is "old news," not "news"
The plunge on August 23, which liquidated nearly 180,000 positions, was a concentrated release of risk-off sentiment. By August 31, when the US military acted, BTC remained steady around 77,580.
What does this mean? The negative factors are fully priced in, and chips have been washed out. Using the US-Iran issue to scare people no longer works; the market doesn't buy it.
2. Macro liquidity expectations are improving
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing long-term US bond yields and the dollar to decline.
Once interest rate pressure on risk assets eases, high-elasticity assets like $BTC react fastest. Although Fed rate hike expectations have fluctuated, the overall trend is marginal liquidity easing.
Where is the money going? To scarce assets.
3. ETFs are buying with real money
This is the solid support.
As of the week ending August 21, combined net inflows into $b and Ethereum ETFs reached $2.6 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing about $1.61 billion inflow over four days. The total net inflow into BTC ETFs for August has reached $2.72 billion, a new high for the year.The biggest thunderclap of the week hasn't struck yet: 4 sets of employment data are deciding whether BTC can firmly reclaim $80,000
Wash has already factored "inflation priority" into market expectations, but his hawkish logic has one premise: employment must not weaken significantly.
Next up are JOLTS, ADP, initial jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls in succession. The latest Reuters survey expects about 58,000 new nonfarm jobs in August and an unemployment rate of 4.1%; meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September remains around 57%.
So it's not surprising that BTC is repeatedly tugging around $80,000 right now.
**Employment stronger than expected:** Wash gets data backing, rate hike probability continues to rise, US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, increasing pressure above for BTC.
**Employment significantly weakens:** Current hawkish trades may quickly cool down, the market will revise down September rate hike expectations, and only then will BTC have the conditions to truly reclaim $80,000.
Don't rush to believe in a breakout before the data.
The biggest directional signal this week isn't in the candlesticks but in whether US employment can still withstand high interest rates. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 BTC is currently around $78,000, having pulled away again from the 200WSMA and 300WSMA.
Currently, the 200WSMA is about $64,600, and the 300WSMA is about $56,000. One month ago, the 200WSMA was about $63,000, and the 300WSMA was about $55,000.
Historically: the 2019 bear bottom stayed near the 200WSMA for about 11 days; in 2022, impacted by a black swan event, it stayed in the 200WSMA–300WSMA range for over 200 days; this cycle has been near the 200WSMA for about 85 days.
From a long-term cycle structure perspective, this is currently the recovery phase from the end of the bear market to the beginning of the bull market.Looking at KORU, the Korea ETF with 3x going long, it dropped another 1.89% today, closing at $21.23. This thing has dropped nearly 85% from its May high to now—it's really tragic. Let's talk about what's happening in the Korean stock market. First, the index roller coaster. KOSPI opened down 2.6% at 6613, and at one point dropped over 3.6% during the session, hitting a low of 6547. But it turned positive at the close, closing at 6820.02, up 0.46%. It opened low but closed high, fluctuating nearly 300 points intraday. Second, the core driving force is the storage duo. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which account for over 70% of KOSPI weighting, both fell more than 4% at the opening today, at one point dropping more than 3% intraday, but both turned positive at the close, with Samsung up 1.17% and SK hynix up 1.27%. When these two stocks move, the entire index moves along with it. Third, who is buying and selling? Retail investors and foreign investors are running, but other institutional investors (pensions, insurance, etc.) net bought 1.58 trillion won, forcing the index back from -3.6% to +0.46%. Institutions are buying, retail investors are running. Why is it falling? Three things overlap: (1) Walsh hawkish. Last Friday, Jackson Hole gave a speech, and the market interpreted this as "the probability of a rate hike in September soaring," with foreign investors panicking and rushing first. (2) South Korean regulations are tightening. Previously, a single stock leveraged ETF approved sparked a retail frenzy, with Samsung and SK Hynix's leveraged product trading accounting for over 80% of the total market at one point. On August 19, regulators required investors to complete five days of simulated trading before using leverageIt looks like RWA is gaining volume, but in reality, most of it is driven by Meme.
The core still relies on Meme and tokenized stock trading pairs.
Trading pairs with whatever, meaning letting whatever vehicle pull you and bring volume to that vehicle.
How to understand this?
1) When stocks rise, they also drive Meme up.
The price of Meme is relative to the stock. If the stock rises 10% and the Meme/stock ratio remains unchanged, your Meme priced in USD automatically rises 10% without any transaction occurring. This is what it means for the bull vehicle to pull you.
2) Meme trading volume drives RWA trading volume.
Every buy or sell of Meme inevitably accompanies a buy or sell of the stock. When you spend USD to buy Meme, the actual path is stablecoin to stock, then stock into the pool to exchange for Meme. This is what it means to bring volume to the bull vehicle.
Moreover, when you buy Meme, the pool will hold and accumulate more circulating stock volume. One Meme might not have much impact, but if countless Memes use a certain stock as a trading pair, each pool accumulates a portion of that stock. The ultimate result might be that the entire crypto market, through a tokenized stock issuer, actually holds a very large circulating volume of a certain stock. And the less the circulating volume, the stronger the same buy orders push the stock price.
So what's the logic behind using stocks as trading pairs like this?
At first, I scoffed at it too, until I realized this:
How to link Crypto with traditional capital markets?
We used to worry about the stock market rising while the crypto market falls, decoupling, and the benefits of traditional markets not transmitting on-chain. This was actually the most painful point in the last cycle. This approach conveniently and directly realizes the transmission of expectations.
I think this is the biggest insight.
It's equivalent to buying a Crypto asset while simultaneously gaining:
On-chain market Alpha × traditional stock market Beta
Traditional stock and crypto markets are no longer a choice or dilemma.
Since Meme can be linked to a certain stock,
then BTC can naturally be paired with the SP 500.
Is it really that powerful?
It seems so.
2020-2021 era: Interaction between ETH and DeFi
2024-2025 era: Interaction between SOL, Meme, and AI Agent tokens
Forex market: USD acts as an intermediary, satisfying the exchange needs of all currencies Altcoin Exclusive Analysis | Why do altcoins always play the "Doomsday Chariot"? Because this is not a bull market at all
Altcoins and Meme coins are essentially mostly junk coins with no real long-term value.
But there is one rule in the secondary market that never changes:
As long as the price is low enough, junk can temporarily turn into gold.
Whether stocks or coins, when an asset falls to an absolute low point and almost no one wants it, as soon as the market picks up, its elasticity is often stronger than quality assets like ETH.
The problem is:
You have to wait until it really becomes junk, lying dead on the floor, and you still dare to hold a heavy position.
Those who can truly do this are extremely rare.
So I never deny that altcoins can surge.
What I deny is:
Taking altcoin surges as a sign that the bull market has arrived.
Why do I keep saying Q3 is just a rebound and Q4 will continue to decline?
Actually, just look at the performance of these altcoins and Meme coins, and you can see the answer.
If this were a real major bull market trend, a main rising phase lasting six to eight months, altcoins wouldn’t always be living on the "Doomsday Chariot."
A real trending market would at least have a continuous, stable, and decent upward rhythm.
But from July 1 until now, look at DOGE and many Meme coins:
Weeks without movement, even a month without movement;
Suddenly a sharp surge for a day or two;
Then quickly dropping again.
Waiting for the next time.
What is this?
This is a typical:
Doomsday Chariot.
It shows that funds have not formed a sustained trend, only repeatedly seeking short-term elasticity at the end of the market, quickly pumping and quickly withdrawing.
So I actually treat these altcoins and Meme coins as important signals to judge the entire market phase.
My judgment remains:
ETH still has the last wave of a push in Q3.
Before that, Meme and altcoins will most likely play the Doomsday Chariot once more.
And what I am truly cautious about is that moment.
If next, a batch of Meme and junk altcoins suddenly surge collectively for 1–2 consecutive days, and the market starts shouting "Altcoin season is here" again—
I would rather think:
This Q3 rebound is already nearing its true end.
Altcoin surges do not necessarily mean the start of a bull market.
Many times, it means:
The last batch of funds is rushing onto the Doomsday Chariot.#财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take the baton, AI returns put to the test again Broadcom and Dell are reporting this week!!!
Broadcom after market close on Wednesday. Market expects revenue to hit 29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year; EPS 3.24, up 92% year-over-year. Broadcom is betting on the custom AI chip line, but after last quarter's earnings report, the stock dropped because the market questioned whether AI profit margins can hold. This time, the focus is not on whether revenue beats expectations, but whether profit margins improve.
Dell after market close on Thursday. Expected revenue of 44.8 billion, up 53% year-over-year; EPS 4.89, up 112% year-over-year. The strength of AI server orders will determine if Dell can sustain this bullish momentum.
NVIDIA has confirmed that demand for computing power remains, but the market's focus has shifted from "how many GPUs you bought" to "how much money you made from AI." Whether custom chip profit margins are sufficient and whether server orders can convert into cash flow will be answered this week.
Broadcom and Dell represent two different links in the AI industry chain—one makes chips, the other makes servers. If both pass, the AI hardware line can continue; if one fails, the entire chain must be revalued. So I suggest waiting and watching, and discussing after the results come out. $AVGO $DELL @OKX星球 BTC just surged above $79,000 in the early morning, then quickly fell back to around $77,000. Such volatility shows that the market is currently reluctant to bet on direction in advance. Because Friday's nonfarm payrolls are likely to become the key piece in whether the Fed will raise rates in September. Currently, the market prices the probability of a rate hike in September at about 57%. Reuters surveys estimate that nonfarm payrolls will add about 58,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%. Washey has already laid out hawkish conditions: inflation remains high, and as long as employment does not deteriorate significantly, the Fed has room to continue tightening. But this time, don't focus solely on "new jobs." What truly determines the market's reaction are four numbers: (1) Nonfarm payroll additions
If it is significantly above 80,000, it indicates the labor market is stronger than expected, and the probability of rate hikes may continue to rise toward around 70%. With US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthening, BTC needs to guard against 75,000 or even 72,000. (2) Unemployment rate
Even if nonfarm payrolls are average, as long as the unemployment rate unexpectedly drops, it will reinforce the judgment that "employment remains tight." (3) Average hourly wage
This is the most easily overlooked variable. Employment is weak but wages continue to exceed expectations, so the Fed will remain concerned about sticky services inflation, which may not be positive for BTC. (4) Previous value correction
In July, the nonfarm payroll unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the previous months were significantly revised downward. If this is another sharp revision, the market will reconsider whether employment is cooling faster than the surface data. So I lean toward three scenarios: Strong employment + strong wages: Hawkish logic is further confirmed, BTC first targets 75,000–76,000, and in extreme cases, tests 7.ZEC at $824, are you adding to your position or running away?
First, look at the surface: surged to 888, retraced to 824, retail investors panicked.
What happened in the past two weeks? It surged from 570 straight up, hitting an eight-year high of 888.57 on August 24. Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF officially launched on the NYSE, fully opening the institutional channel. Then the price pulled back, oscillating between 800-888, today at 824, positioned in the lower-middle part of the consolidation box.
A typical "good news priced in pullback" after an event-driven rally, not a trend reversal.
First thing: The ETF is live, but have you been shaken out by the "good news fully priced in"?
On August 25, Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF (ZCSH) officially launched on NYSE Arca. This is the first spot ZEC ETF in the US, meaning institutions can now buy privacy coins through brokerage accounts.
The narrative shifted from "geek coin" to "configurable asset," and Wall Street's compliant capital channel is fully open. Before and after the ETF launch, the price surged to 850-888, then pulled back. Grayscale's research report has positioned ZEC as "financial privacy in the AI era"—BTC lacks privacy, ZEC fills the gap.
Second thing: Two real technical positives you might have missed.
First, just announced today—Zakura Common library has been open-sourced, reducing shielded transaction generation time from about 3 seconds to under 200 milliseconds, no hard fork needed.
Second, the Ironwood upgrade has been implemented. In May-June this year, the Orchard pool was exposed to vulnerabilities, crashing the price to 250-300. At the end of July, Ironwood archived the old pool, introduced a new shielded pool and verifiable supply mechanism, completely fixing the vulnerabilities.
Third thing: The market is correcting, but ZEC is stronger than BTC.
BTC fell from 81,300 to 77,500-78,500. At the Jackson Hole meeting, the Fed Chair leaned hawkish, rate cut expectations were lowered, and US Treasury yields rose. BTC ETF saw about $200 million net outflow, institutional rhythm shifted from "buying frenzy" to "wait and see."
The market is weak, but what about ZEC? It pulled back from 888 to 824, a drop of less than 8%.
BTC dropped 4.7%, ZEC only dropped an additional 3%. This is called "relative strength"—it resists when the market falls and surges when the market rises.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
On one side:
Spot ZEC ETF just launched, institutional channel open, long-term funds will gradually enter
Shielded transaction speed reduced from 3 seconds to 200 milliseconds, experience upgraded 15 times
Ironwood vulnerability fixed, crisis rebuilt, negative narrative ended
Grayscale report calls it "financial privacy in the AI era"
Nearly 10% retracement from the 888 high, healthier after high-level turnover
On the other side:
ETF "good news priced in" style pullback, short-term sentiment cooling
BTC weak at 77,500-78,500, market not cooperating
Macro hawkish, rate cut expectations lowered, risk appetite down
Open interest previously surged to $1.8 billion, leveraged longs crowded
870-888 eight-year high zone failed three times, supply wall strong
Strong resistance: 870-888 (dense eight-year high zone)
Near resistance: 840-850 (first pressure after pullback)
Current price: 824 (lower-middle of the box, bulls and bears balanced)
First support: 805-812 (holding = strong consolidation)
Key support: 775-790 (breach = medium correction)
Trend defense: 750-760 (only broken means end of the trend)
Trading strategy
Conservative players:
Wait for the first dip buy at 805-812, better at 780-795. Stop loss at 768 (daily close below). Targets 850-860, second 880-888, volume breakout above 888 targets 920-1000.
Aggressive players:
High sell low buy in 800-850 range. Near 824 can only be short-term. Reduce positions at 848-858 on rebound, buy again on pullback to 808-815. If two consecutive 1H/4H closes below 800, stop grid, wait for 780.
Breakout players:
Bull confirmation: 4H close above 850 and pullback holds above 835, chase second leg, target 870-888
Bear confirmation: 4H/daily close below 800, failed pullback at 808-815, then consider short, targets 780, 750
ZEC now is like BTC when its ETF just launched in 2024—
99% think "good news fully priced in means top," but institutions are quietly accumulating during the pullback.
On the day 888 breaks through, you will realize:
It's not that ZEC is weak, it's that you panic-sell after every good news.
What's your ZEC cost?
At 824, are you adding to your position or running away?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 Brothers, I just saw the on-chain data, Metaplanet deposited another 2,400 $BTC, worth $186 million. Adding the deposits from the past two days, a total of 7,750 $BTC have been moved in over these three days, which is not a small amount!
Conclusion first: this is very likely not a liquidation run, but more like collateralized financing.
Many people see coins being deposited to exchanges and think it means a dump, but this time it’s not a retail exchange. This platform mainly serves institutions, handling custody, trading, financing, and collateralized lending. Depositing coins doesn’t mean selling them; it’s more likely using BTC as collateral to borrow money or engage in derivatives operations.
Consider the background—on August 12, Metaplanet had an unrealized loss of $1.4 billion, a 34% drop. When the price crashed to over $60,000, it stayed still, and only now with the price rebound has frequent transfers started? The timing is very intriguing. It doesn’t make sense to run away at the worst unrealized loss and only start moving now. It’s more like using BTC as collateral for financing to ease cash flow pressure after the price recovery.
Moreover, it’s not just Metaplanet doing this; MARA, Grayscale, and BlackRock have also been depositing BTC recently. Institutional-level BTC flows are shifting from "open market trading" to "lending and derivatives collateral." On-chain transfers no longer impact prices as directly as before.
That said, moving such a large scale of coins to institutional platforms for three consecutive days can’t be without some intention.This year, the amount of money spent on Token Buybacks by Crypto projects has hit a record:
$640M.
In 2025, it was $545M.
In 2024, it was only:
$366,000.
In other words, in two years, buybacks have almost gone from "no one doing it" to becoming a Narrative.
Even more striking:
Hyperliquid + pump.fun account for nearly 90%.
And HYPE's cumulative buyback scale since the end of 2024 has reached about $1.3B.
I think Crypto is undergoing a very obvious change.
In the last cycle, everyone loved to talk about:
TVL
User count
Community
Roadmap
Now the market is becoming more direct:
"The money you earn, does it actually return to the Token?"
This is actually very similar to the logic after the stock market matures.
But I won’t get bullish just by seeing the words "buyback."
Because projects like Jupiter and Chainlink have also done buybacks, yet their prices can still fall.
So now when I look at Token Buybacks, I only ask two questions:
Is the money coming from real revenue?
After the buyback, what exactly do Token Holders gain?The $BTC critical 80,000 threshold: This week, instead of watching the candlestick charts, watch whether U.S. employment can "prove wrong" Worsh
Since Jackson Hole, the market has entered a purely data-driven mode.
Worsh's hawkish confidence is based on two conditions: inflation remains high, and employment has not significantly deteriorated. The latest initial jobless claims are only 203,000, continuing claims 1,778,000, both declining for the second consecutive week, indicating no signs of a labor market slowdown for now.
Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 60%. But the real stress test is still ahead: Reuters' latest survey expects only 45,000 new nonfarm payrolls in August.
If nonfarm payrolls and wages continue to be strong, rate hike expectations may further intensify, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will rise, and the difficulty for BTC to return to 80,000 will significantly increase; conversely, if employment suddenly weakens, the current hawkish trades may quickly reverse.
So the real determinant for $BTC this week is not technical indicators, but whether employment data can dismantle Worsh's hawkish logic. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 57%: The real danger for BTC is not the rate hike itself, but the "expectation that can change at any moment"
After Waller's speech, the market's probability of a rate hike in September has increased from about 35% to 57%. This is not a "rate hike lock-in," but a critical point where bulls and bears are most sensitive.
The core contradiction remains: Core PCE is as high as 3.3%, inflation stickiness unresolved; but this week's nonfarm payroll expectation is only about 58,000 new jobs. If employment continues to cool, the current hawkish pricing could quickly reverse.
For BTC, macro priorities now outweigh technicals:
If the rate hike probability further surges to 70%, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strengthen, and the 73,000–75,000 support will face pressure;
If nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly and the rate hike probability quickly falls back, BTC will have a chance to retest 80,000.
High beta assets like ETH and SOL will amplify this volatility.
57% is not a directional answer but a "data bomb." Next, don't guess the Fed; watch how nonfarm payrolls and wages rewrite the odds. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The most important catalyst for markets this week may still be ahead. A series of U.S. labor-market reports is coming, including JOLTS, ADP employment, initial jobless claims and finally Friday Nonfarm Payrolls. That creates a potentially volatile week for $BTC and other risk assets. The key issue is how these numbers interact with the Fed’s current policy stance. If employment remains resilient while inflation stays elevated, expectations for tighter monetary policy could strengthen again. But ETH keeps facing negative news but can't break below 2400: What’s really worth watching is the “bad news blunting” effect
In the past two correction rounds, on one side, hawkish speeches from the Fed raised expectations for a September rate hike; on the other, the Cronos ecosystem's Tectonic suffered an attack of about $75 million. However, attackers only managed to bridge about $6 million successfully to Ethereum, with most assets still trapped in Cronos, so the direct impact on ETH liquidity is limited.
ETH is still repeatedly contesting around $2400, indicating an important market phenomenon: negative news persists, but price sensitivity to bad news is starting to decline.
However, this should not be simply interpreted as “whales suppressing the price to accumulate.” The long-short ratio and active buy-sell ratio only reflect derivatives structure and cannot directly prove that someone is secretly buying at the bottom.
True confirmation of strength requires three conditions: holding above 2400 consistently, reclaiming 2450–2470, and volume expanding simultaneously.
On the macro level, the probability of a September rate hike remains around 60%, so interest rate risk is not resolved.
Therefore, what deserves the most attention now is not “whether the bull market has arrived,” but that despite increasing negative news, the price finds it increasingly difficult to make new lows. If this blunting continues, that is the real sign of strength. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Missile surge pushes oil prices? US-Iran mutual strikes ignite the oil market!
When missiles fire, retail investors rush in; whales quietly count short-sellers' casualties preparing to exit.
US-Iran strikes push oil prices to 86, but don't get carried away! Forecast markets show: Iran's full airspace blockade probability only 26%, US invasion just 16%—the market thinks this war won't escalate much.
Looking at the funds: $CL at 85.76, overbought indicator spikes to 82, 30-day net outflow of $110 million, big money is pulling while running. Smart money is mostly long, average cost 79, current floating profit only 490K, few chasing highs; shorts are squeezed, average 84.2 losing 5.14 million. Liquidation chart shows 86.2-87.4 is a minefield of shorts ready to explode, one more dollar surge and shorts will bleed heavily. $BZ is the same, shorts losing even worse.
Technicals both overbought, but volume shrinks—classic pump and dump. $BZ $CL #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
I won't just focus on non-farm payrolls this week.
July's non-farm payrolls already gave the market a reminder: employment is cooling down, but not weak enough for the Fed to easily pivot. Now Wash puts "inflation" front and center, so the key for September is not whether a single data point looks good or bad, but whether employment and inflation can both provide a clear enough direction.
If I have to choose, I currently lean towards: keeping rates unchanged in September, but the market will continue to trade rate cut expectations.
When I trade $BTC during such macro data weeks, I tend to reduce frequency.
JOLTS shows labor demand, ADP shows employment changes, initial claims show short-term temperature, but the real market sentiment driver is still non-farm payrolls.
But I won't bet on direction before the data is released.
Because the easiest way to lose money in crypto is often not getting the trend wrong, but thinking you know the answer in advance and then getting wiped out by a single data candlestick.
So this week I prefer to wait for the data and see how BTC moves.
If data is weak but BTC can't rally, I will be cautious.
If data is strong but BTC can't fall, I will reconsider the bearish logic.
Data is the cause; price is the real answer of the market. $BTC $ETH Night raid on Hormuz, the bulls got taught another lesson
Last night the US military took action on the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin directly fell below 77,000, with 180 million liquidated in 1 hour, longs accounted for 96%
This script has been played many times, rumors of Iran closing the strait in 2025 caused 150 million liquidations; Israel attacking Iran caused 230 million liquidations. Yesterday's 180 million liquidation isn't even new enough to call copy-paste. What amazes me is that every time people rush in as if this time is different from the last. But once the war sounds, all the bulls lie down. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 August is quickly coming to a close. Bitcoin surged from $63,000 to $81,300, then pulled back to $77,500–$78,100. The monthly gain is about 24%–26%, making it one of the strongest Augusts since 2017.
This is not a retail-driven rally. The Treasury increased buybacks, spot ETF inflows exceeded $2.8 billion, and shorts were heavily liquidated—these three factors stacked together. Coinbase premium turned positive, indicating spot buying in the U.S.
Currently, the market is digesting two things. Warsh was hawkish at Jackson Hole, causing rate cut trades to be repriced, and BTC dropped from $81,000 back to $77,000. On August 28, ETF net outflows were about $202 million, ending a 9-day streak of inflows. This interrupted the rhythm but did not invalidate August’s inflows. The next few days will show if spot buying continues.
Three judgments: after short squeezes, the next leg up needs a new engine, which should come from ETFs and spot buying rather than waiting for more liquidations. $77,000 is more important than $81,000—holding it keeps August’s monthly line intact; breaking below and failing to reclaim it would be a failed breakout. Even a strong August is just a recovery, still about 38% below last October’s high near $126,000.
The market moves fast; single points in the holding path won’t disappear on their own. Removing the 24 words often just shifts the single points.
#Bitcoin #BTC #MarketAnalysis 🚨 Interest rate expectations suddenly turned hawkish, and $BTC once again became the first risk asset to come under pressure!
BTC previously surged to $81K before quickly retreating, dropping to around $77K at one point, and is currently fluctuating around $78K. In the short term, it is far from the stage of "blindly bottom-fishing."
What truly deserves attention is not just the technical correction, but the simultaneous changes in capital flow and the macro environment.
📉 ETF funds show a clear reversal
On August 28, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net outflow of about $201.9M, ending a streak of nine consecutive trading days of inflows; the cumulative inflow during this streak was about $3.04B.
🏦 Interest rate expectations also start to exert pressure
After Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks, the market's expectation for a Fed rate hike in September quickly heated up, with the probability rising from about 35% to around 57%; the US 2-year Treasury yield also rose to about 4.33%–4.34%.
🌍 Macro risks further increase
Tensions between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude oil to about $90.51/barrel, rising about 2.7% in a single day. Rising energy prices may further increase inflationary pressure.
So the core issue now is not "how much BTC has fallen," but:
Whether ETF funds will flow back → Whether $77K can hold → Whether $80K can be reclaimed.
Before capital reconfirms, BTC is better suited for observation.A person who doesn't dare to buy in panic won't dare to buy even if given another chance.
Recently, Bitcoin rose to 80,000, and some said, "If it drops to 60,000, I'll go all in."
Here's a cold splash of water: most likely, that won't happen.
On May 19, 2021, during the crash, Bitcoin fell from 64,000 to 28,000, Ethereum dropped from 4,200 to 1,700, and altcoins even fell 50% in an hour. At that time, we said, "If it drops to 28,000 again, I'll sell my house and go all in."
In 2022, Bitcoin really returned to 28,000, but due to the LUNA collapse, people didn't dare to buy; it fell below 20,000, but because of the Three Arrows Capital bankruptcy, they still didn't dare to buy; it dropped to 16,000, and because of the FTX collapse, they still didn't dare to buy.
People who don't dare to buy in panic won't dare to buy even if the price is lower.
Some wait at 70,000 for 60,000, at 60,000 for 50,000, at 50,000 for 40,000... Ultimately, the real buyers often appear at the end of a bull market: prices surge, good news is abundant, the market is optimistic, and then they buy at the top.
In 2024, after the ETF approval pushed the price to 48,000, some thought the bull market was over due to the positive news; it wasn't until March when it broke the all-time high that the market crazily shouted "The bull market is here" and "Altcoin season is here." But then it adjusted all the way down.
Bull markets are never comfortable.
Now BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, and other mainstream coins have entered a consolidation phase, the bears are starting to make various noises, many people are getting anxious again, wanting to swing trade, wait, and try to buy low and sell high.
Save your energy for what really matters—waiting for the top signals to align, then selling in batches.今年币圈项目方已经花了6.38亿美元回购自己的代币，比去年同期的5.45亿美元还多。 按正常理解，项目方真金白银下场买，流通盘少了，买盘多了，币价多少应该好看一点吧。 结果并不是。 Jupiter今年已经回购了近1400万美元，JUP过去一年还是跌了不少；Chainlink也在回购，LINK的表现同样谈不上多漂亮。 Helium更直接，今年2月干脆把回购停了。 原因说出来也挺扎心： 钱花了 市场好像根本不在乎 但另一边，Hyperliquid却走出了完全不同的行情。 HYPE过去一年逆势上涨约70%，协议赚到的绝大部分手续费，又通过Assistance Fund持续在市场买入HYPE。 更夸张的是，今年整个加密行业6.38亿美元的回购里，Hyperliquid和pump.fun两家就占了接近90%。 于是我顺手把HYPE、PUMP，还有STRK、ZK、LINEA几个当年的“天王”重新翻出来看了一遍。 越看越觉得 回购这件事 大家可能一直看错重点了 先看HYPE。 Hyperliquid最特别的地方，其实不是“舍得花钱回购”。 它从一开始的利益分配就不太一样。 HYPE创世时31%的供应#伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码
Garibabadi publicly stated: The Strait of Hormuz is currently "completely closed." Iran has reached an understanding with Oman regarding vessel passage, but "will not enter the implementation phase until the US fulfills its commitments."
Iran is in no hurry to reopen because the prolonged closure of the strait puts pressure on the US and also causes losses to Iran. However, reopening unconditionally would be tantamount to admitting that extreme pressure tactics have worked. More importantly, over the past two weeks, the US military has quietly opened a route on the southern side, with 15 to 20 oil tankers passing daily, transporting nearly 10 million barrels per day, with over 80% of vessels bypassing the northern route controlled by Iran. Iran's actual control over the strait is weakening; if it does not turn "opening the door" into a bargaining chip, this card will be wasted. So this is not a sign of weakness but an upgrade of the bargaining chip—reshuffling Hormuz from a "military card" into a "negotiation card."
The market immediately reacted. On the evening of August 30, Brent crude oil in the dark market broke through $88 per barrel, and Bitcoin simultaneously surged, briefly surpassing $78,000.
Iran is saying, "I can open it, but you have to offer something in return." The problem is, the US is unwilling even to negotiate. Whether this door opens or not depends not on Iran's urgency but on how long oil prices can hold above $88.Monday, 2026.08.31
The Fed's Wash turns hawkish, tensions between the US and Iran escalate again, oil prices surge once more, while Bitcoin, US stocks, and gold prices all show declines. Currently, the market's probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 53%. If oil prices continue to rise, inflation could worsen, so even if no action is taken this month, there is still a possibility of rate hikes this year, potentially more than once. Therefore, this Friday's non-farm payroll and unemployment data will have a significant impact on rate hike expectations.
On August 28, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $201 million. Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of $102 million, and Bitcoin ETFs had a total net inflow of $924 million last week.
Market Analysis
After falling due to the US-Iran situation, Bitcoin quickly rebounded today. The bulls remain resilient, and the downtrend has not expanded, so it has not shifted into a downtrend. The support level remains around 76,000, making it still optimal to look for buying opportunities. We will see if the US stock market continues to decline after opening tonight; the first half of this week will roughly reveal the market's macro expectations.
The US stock market is not very optimistic now. If it turns downward again at tonight's open, it will truly enter a downtrend for a period, forming a major weekly double top. The 2021 bull market also ended this way, so caution is advised.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 78 (Greed) After NVIDIA's report, Broadcom and Dell took over; is this AI wave real demand or just storytelling? The industry chain's earnings reports have the final say.
Broadcom has already reported Q2: revenue of 22.2 billion, up 48% year-over-year, AI semiconductor revenue of 10.8 billion, soaring 143% year-over-year, with orders booked through 2028. Dell is even more impressive, with Q1 AI server revenue of 16.1 billion, more than 7 times year-over-year growth, a record backlog of 51.3 billion, and Q2 earnings coming tomorrow to see if they can beat expectations.
Storage is even stronger: SK Hynix's Q2 revenue rose 257% year-over-year, profits surged 557%, HBM4 is already in mass production and shipping, with volume ramping up in the second half. Micron is even more aggressive, having sold out all HBM for 2026, with mass shipments of HBM4 to NVIDIA. Kioxia is also active, teaming with SanDisk to invest 31 billion to expand NAND production; AI servers' demand for storage is extremely strong.
Looking at these earnings reports together, the signal is clear: AI demand has spread from NVIDIA's GPUs to Broadcom's chips, Dell's servers, and Hynix and Micron's HBM; the entire industry chain is benefiting, not just storytelling.
But there is a problem: Dell's gross margin dropped from 21% to 17.8%, selling more but earning less, indicating intensified competition in the assembly segment. In contrast, companies like Broadcom and Hynix with core technologies maintain stable profit margins.
Opinion: The AI hardware chain still has potential, but don't treat all players the same. Broadcom and Hynix have high certainty due to core technologies, while Dell's assembly segment should be judged by its profit margins. Next, we will see if software applications can deliver; hardware alone won't sustain for long #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 🚨 $BTC is approaching $79K, the next 5 days could be a critical window!
Bitcoin is entering a very important macro phase in this market cycle. Currently, BTC is oscillating between $78K–$79K, and the market is waiting for a new directional catalyst.
🟠 BTC key levels
Previously, BTC once broke through $81K, then quickly fell back to around $77K.
Currently, focus can be placed on:
• $77K: important short-term support
• $79K: current price range
• $80K: psychological level bulls need to reclaim
• $81K: previous rebound high
Before breaking through $80K–$81K, BTC looks more like it is consolidating within a range rather than confirming a new upward trend.
🏦 The real variables: Federal Reserve + employment data
Kevin Warsh’s latest speech at Jackson Hole was clearly hawkish, and market expectations for a September rate hike have quickly heated up, with the related probability once rising to about 60%. Meanwhile, the US 2-year Treasury yield has risen to about 4.35%, indicating a noticeably tighter financial environment.
This is significant pressure for BTC, as higher interest rates usually mean greater liquidity challenges for risk assets.
📊 The non-farm payroll data on September 4 is the next card to play
The US August non-farm employment report will be released at 8:30 ET on September 4 📊 FACT:
BTC once broke through $80,000 in August, with a monthly increase of about 24%; however, the US spot BTC ETF suddenly saw a net outflow of $201.9M on August 28, ending the previous continuous strong inflows. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows Binance BTC reserves rose to about 687,000 coins, hitting a new high for 2026. 🔎 WHY:
This does not mean institutions are fully retreating. A more reasonable explanation is that the prior rise has accumulated some profit-taking, and the increase in exchange BTC means potential selling supply is thickening. 💡 INSIGHT:
A truly healthy breakout is not just BTC price hitting new highs, but the simultaneous occurrence of "price rise + ETF continuous capital inflow + exchange inventory decline."
If the price continues to rise but capital does not follow in sync, the market may rely more on liquidity and short covering rather than new spot demand. ⚠️ RISK:
An increase in exchange reserves does not equal immediate selling; it may also come from custody, market making, or staking demand, so it cannot be used alone as a bearish signal. 💬 QUESTION:
Do you think the real fuel for the next BTC breakout will come from ETFs or from on-exchange capital rotation? #BTCGoldCorrelation $BTC $ETH $SOL #TGABuybacksVsFiscalRisk #BTCGoldC🚨 $BTC remains resilient around $78K, but the market cannot yet be considered fully bullish.
Currently, BTC is about $78.2K, basically flat over 24 hours; $ETH is around $2.44K, up about 0.6%; $SOL is about $103, up about 2%. Overall, capital still favors large assets, and broad participation in the altcoin market needs further confirmation.
More importantly, macro risks are heating up. The US-Iran tensions are impacting the market again, Brent crude briefly broke above $90/barrel, rising more than 2% in a single day; meanwhile, market attention on Fed policy and US employment data continues to increase.
📊 Regarding ETF funds, on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $201.9M, ending a streak of nine consecutive trading days of inflows.
Therefore, I will continue to maintain a cautious view. If BTC can hold $77K–$78K and regain $80K, while assets like ETH and SOL simultaneously receive capital support, it would more likely represent a true market expansion.
The correlation between BTC and gold remains worth watching, but to form a sustained uptrend, broader market participation is key.
This is solely a personal market opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #BTCGoldCorrelation #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #B8月28日，美国现货 ETF 出现明显分化： 🟠 $BTC：-$201.9M 🔵 $ETH：+$102.1M 🟢 $SOL：+$17.3M 🟣 $XRP：+$26.2M BTC ETF 在连续 9个交易日净流入、累计吸金超过 $3B 后首次转为流出；与此同时，ETH、SOL 和 XRP 仍然保持资金流入。 这可能不只是短期波动。 当 BTC 的资金开始降温，而主流山寨资产继续吸引 ETF 资金，市场或许正在从 “BTC单点配置”转向“多资产轮动”。 更值得关注的是，ETH ETF 已连续多日获得资金支持，机构需求正在变得更加分散。👀 ETF资金流向，可能正在提前告诉我们下一轮资金会流向哪里。 #BTC #ETH #SOL #XRP #ETF #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BroadcomDellAIResults #BTCGoldCorrelation$ANTHROPIC pre-market contract prices fluctuate around $192, with on-chain derivatives pushing the implied valuation close to $2 trillion, creating a tense pricing game with the upcoming IPO prospectus.
After a sustained rise above $100 earlier, pre-market perpetual contract trading has doubled the valuation expectation from the $965 billion private placement in May.
Funds are choosing to front-run pricing through on-chain contracts before the official disclosure, but the contract's benchmark of 1 billion shares is only an exchange estimate, and the official party does not recognize tokenized certificates as shareholder equity.
The valuation jump is based on optimistic pricing of the prospectus data; if the actual share base or business scale deviates from expectations, the current premium model will need to be recalculated.
If the prospectus shows a gross margin structure with very high computing power utilization and losses narrowing beyond expectations, market preference will strengthen, pushing the pre-market price to firmly hold above the $200 mark.
If the disclosed training and inference computing costs far exceed market estimates, or the actual share capital dilution surpasses model assumptions, high positions may face rapid deleveraging corrections.
Currently, the two main disagreements focus on the true financial quality and the exchange's pricing assumptions; once the prospectus clarifies the share base, the current valuation framework will be immediately validated.
The most important variables to watch in the coming days are the actual registered circulating shares and core computing power expenditure data when the prospectus is released in early September.
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年Hormuz Powder Keg Reignites: US-Iran Mutual Attacks Shake Global Markets
The Middle East situation escalates again. On the 30th, the US military struck Iran's Larak Island, destroying two Revolutionary Guard rocket launchers, marking the first direct military confrontation since late July. The US described the move as a "defensive preemptive" action aimed at preventing mine and rocket attacks targeting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran directly blamed the attack for military and civilian casualties and vowed retaliation, promptly responding with ballistic missile strikes on the US base in Jordan. Although many missiles were intercepted, the confrontation has shifted from covert to overt.
Markets instantly sensed danger. WTI crude oil surged 1.7%, Brent neared $90; risk assets collectively came under pressure, Dow futures dropped over 100 points, Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%, and Bitcoin briefly flash-crashed to $77,000. Every tremor in Hormuz signals a steepening of the global inflation curve.
The real trouble lies in the policy dilemma. Wash recently hinted that "rate hikes will continue if inflation does not fall," and rising oil prices now are like adding fuel to the fire. If energy costs continue to transmit, the September rate decision will be forced to lean hawkish. With midterm elections approaching, if the White House prioritizes military posture over inflation pressure, the market will vote with volatility.
Geopolitical risk premiums are being repriced, and the Federal Reserve's tightening path has no room to maneuver. The sound of artillery shatters the fragile illusion of a "soft landing"—when oil and interest rates dance together, the safety margin for asset allocation is rapidly narrowing. Investors should be alert: this time, it's not just the Middle East that's burning. $BTC #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 Market Watch on August 31: BTC Retreats to $77,000, Macro Risks Heat Up
After breaking through $80,000, BTC failed to hold its ground and has now fallen back to around $77,000. ETH has also returned to the $2,400 range, with market sentiment clearly cooling in the short term.
The main pressure currently comes from the macro environment. Tensions in the Middle East have escalated again, with the U.S. taking new military actions against Iran and planning to strengthen sanctions, which pushed international oil prices up temporarily. If energy prices continue to rise, it could reignite inflation expectations and increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, suppressing BTC, ETH, and tech stocks.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve has recently continued to send hawkish signals, with the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthening, which is also an important backdrop for BTC's pullback from above $80,000.
However, there is still support from liquidity. The U.S. spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for several consecutive trading days, and institutional funds have not significantly withdrawn. Whether ETF funds can continue to flow in will be a key indicator to watch for BTC's ability to stabilize around $77,000.
📊 Today's Market Sentiment: Bearish. Macro risks are heating up, but ETF funds still provide some support.
Do you think BTC's drop to $77,000 this time is a normal correction or the start of a new downtrend?
#BTC #ETH #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #FederalReserve
Main sources: Reuters, CoinDesk#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配
Many people see gold falling from its highs this year and start to doubt whether the gold market is over.
But one piece of data is particularly worth noting:
In Q2 2026, global gold prices clearly adjusted, and gold ETFs even saw a net outflow of 45 tons. Yet at the same time, global central banks net purchased 288.9 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 62%.
Putting these two data points together is quite interesting.
On one side, some market funds chose to sell after the price adjustment; on the other side, central banks continued to increase their gold reserves.
This indicates a very clear divergence emerging in the gold market:
Short-term funds focus on price, long-term funds focus on allocation.
Moreover, data from the World Gold Council shows that global gold demand reached 2522 tons in the first half of 2026, up 2% year-on-year, with a value of $380 billion, setting a historical record.
So I think that now, judging gold should not just focus on "whether it can hit new highs."
What’s truly worth observing is:
If gold prices adjust, will central banks still be willing to keep buying?
If the answer is still yes, then the logic behind this round of gold market activity may not be simple risk-hedging speculation, but a long-term reallocation of global reserve assets.
The truly interesting thing about gold may not be how much it has risen, but that the more its price fluctuates, the more people are still willing to treat it as a long-term asset.BTC's relative stability near $78,000 matters more than the quiet headline move. With ETH and SOL lagging over the past day, this looks like selective risk appetite rather than a broad crypto rebound.
I would keep a defensive bias while oil-sensitive US-Iran tensions and labor-market questions remain in focus. A firmer BTC-gold relationship may support the store-of-value case, but durable upside still needs participation BTC.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults The crypto market showed a volatile recovery trend after the geopolitical shock during the midday session. Overnight, the US-Iran conflict suddenly escalated late at night, with the US military airstriking Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by Iran's missile retaliation. Coupled with Iran's earlier announcement of the Strait's closure, global geopolitical risks rapidly intensified. Brent crude oil stabilized above the $90 mark, inflation expectations rebounded, directly suppressing risk asset sentiment. In the morning, $BTC quickly dropped in the short term, hitting a low near 77,000, with selling pressure appearing on the market.
#Employment data densely released, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
This round of correction is a typical black swan event-driven decline, not an inherent market weakness. It is clear that the drop in Bitcoin is controllable without continuous deep falls, with decent support from bulls. The market did not show panic selling; mainstream coins overall stabilized after volatility. $ETH also slightly retreated in sync, while altcoins and meme coins experienced increased volatility and further divergence.
Changes in capital flow are very clear: after the recent crypto market recovery, market funds have prioritized returning to native crypto assets. Previously highly popular US stock storage semiconductor contract trading volumes have continued to decline. Once top-ranked SanDisk and Micron have seen significant drops in interest, with only SK Hynix remaining in the top ten, fully indicating that capital sentiment has refocused on the crypto mainline. Market sentiment has slightly retreated from previous greed, but the overall bullish atmosphere has not been completely destroyed. The biggest variable remains the Middle East situation. If the conflict remains a limited local confrontation, the market will quickly digest the negative news and return to a volatile recovery rhythm; if the situation escalates, oil prices and inflation expectations will rise further, continuing to suppress the rebound space for crypto assets in the short term.#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, nonfarm payrolls, one after another this week
The real life-or-death test for BTC is not Wash's speech, but the US employment data.
Wash can be very hawkish, but if employment really starts to deteriorate significantly, it won't be so easy for the Fed to remain tough.
The market is a bit interesting now:
Nonfarm payrolls in July have already decreased by 23,000,
And May and June employment data have been cumulatively revised down by 103,000.
This indicates: the US job market may not be as strong as it appears on the surface.
So my current judgment is quite clear: employment data will most likely continue to cool down this week.
If JOLTS, ADP, and nonfarm payrolls all come in weaker than expected, and the market re-trades "economic cooling → policy easing," then gold and BTC, which fell in the past few days due to Wash's speech, might actually recover some of those losses.
Especially BTC, which now fears not the word "rate hike," but the market suddenly believing again that "high interest rates will be maintained for a long time."
Conversely, if employment suddenly turns out to be ridiculously strong this week, then trouble arises.
US Treasury yields may continue to rise, the dollar may strengthen further, and BTC will face short-term pressure.
If the data confirms this judgment, this BTC correction might be an opportunity for those looking to get back in later.
Don't be scared by a single speech; what really decides September's policy is still the data.
Wait for employment to give the answer. #Employment data released intensively, Powell's policy stance under scrutiny
Previous market logic: weak employment → no rate hike → risk assets cheer
Powell dismantled this formula after taking office
Employment not collapsing + inflation still high + financial conditions not tight = hawkish default
This week's data schedule is a series of hammer blows
Tuesday JOLTS job openings
Wednesday ADP private employment
Thursday initial claims + Beige Book
Friday August nonfarm payrolls
Interspersed with ISM manufacturing/services price paid indexes
The key point is not "how many tens of thousands added," but:
Even if nonfarm adds only 30,000-50,000, as long as unemployment doesn't break 4.2% and hourly wages don't collapse, Powell has reason to continue "not easing."
For him to turn dovish, we need to see employment near zero or negative growth + unemployment hitting 4.3%+ — currently unlikely.
The market has already voted with its feet:
After Powell's Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a 25bp hike in September surged from 35% to 57%, BTC and US stocks are both swinging in the "macro pricing shift."
For the crypto market, the conclusion is straightforward:
Hot data → rate hike expectations rise again → US stocks under pressure → BTC falls, altcoins bleed
Sudden cold data → becomes a positive → but "cold enough to recession" is another kind of valuation killer
During sideways volatility, don't pretend you can predict Powell; it's more comfortable to follow volatility than guess direction
Powell himself said: the commitment is to discipline, not a single decision. He leaves no forward guidance, only the right to change face at any time. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
After the Jackson Hole speech, the market focus has completely shifted to the series of U.S. employment data, and Waller's policy stance is being tested against real data.
Waller stated adherence to the 2% inflation target, de-emphasizing forward guidance, with policy fully dependent on real-time economic data, especially valuing the two major indicators of employment and inflation, and not easily giving clear predictions on rate cuts or hikes.
Bullish logic: If employment data continues to weaken and wage growth slows, it will suppress inflationary pressure, the market will lower expectations for a rate hike in September, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will decline, and risk assets including crypto will benefit from liquidity.
Personal view: The current market game logic has changed. Strong employment = maintaining high interest rates, bearish for risk assets; only a significant weakening in employment will open expectations for easing.
But note, Waller's core anchor remains inflation; even if employment cools, as long as inflation remains sticky, the Fed will not easily shift to a dovish stance.
Subsequent data releases such as ADP, initial jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls will bombard the market in succession, likely causing sharp market spikes, with BTC and ETH fluctuating significantly along with U.S. Treasury yields.
For the crypto community, this is a critical macro window; one should not only focus on technical charts. During the contract phase, try to reduce leverage and avoid prematurely betting on one-sided moves. Spot holdings can be retained as a base position, waiting for data to land before making adjustments. $ANTHROPIC has risen from just over 100 to over 200, with on-chain pricing running ahead of the underwriters.
Just checked again, the ANTHROPICUSDT contract price is hovering around 192, implying a valuation of about 1.92 trillion. It has indeed more than doubled from the previous level of just over 100.
Looking at the valuation path, the private placement valuation in May was 965 billion, and before the market opened in August, the perpetual contract implied valuation reached 1.6-1.84 trillion. The on-chain pre-market directly snatched the IPO lead underwriter’s role. Hyperliquid also briefly surged to 2 trillion before falling back to around 1.89 trillion. The essence of this play is to use derivatives to bet in advance on where Anthropic’s valuation will land between 965 billion and 2 trillion, setting the price before the IPO is finalized.
However, the risks are clear: the contract’s share capital of 1 billion shares is an estimate by the exchange itself; the actual IPO share capital will only be known when the prospectus is released. If it doesn’t match, the entire premium model will need to be recalculated. Moreover, Anthropic has publicly stated that unauthorized share transfers (including tokenized instruments) are considered invalid and do not recognize buyers in such transactions as shareholders.
Doubling is no lie, but Pre-IPO contracts and real stocks are two different things. Ultimately, it depends on whether the public market accepts this price after the prospectus is disclosed on September 7.
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 BTC's relative stability near $78,000 matters more than the quiet headline move. With ETH and SOL lagging over the past day, this looks like selective risk appetite rather than a broad crypto rebound.
I would keep a defensive bias while oil-sensitive US-Iran tensions and labor-market questions remain in focus. A firmer BTC-gold relationship may support the store-of-value case, but durable upside still needs participation to broaden beyond BTC.
Just my read, not advice.$LIT LONG 🟢 — OKX SWAP 15m
🎯 trend continuation | Confidence 95/100
Entry: 3.712
SL: 3.51365
TP1: 3.95993 | TP2: 4.10869 | TP3: 4.30704
RSI14 68.8 | ADX14 35.5 | MACD +0.0184 | Vol 1.19x
A 15m close through SL invalidates the setup. Never widen the stop.
Educational analysis only—not financial advice.
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