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In a crypto bull market, most investors who are still actively trading essentially aim to outperform the price increase of $BTC spot. In past cycles, among friends and community members, many made aggressive moves, but few ultimately outperformed BTC.
Personally, I adopt a phased grid coin accumulation strategy. For example, currently, I expect BTC's extreme pullback level to be above 70K. While holding spot, I place low-position long contract orders and Sell Put orders (a low-buy strategy) below the current price, keeping leverage under 50%.
If the orders don't fill, I collect option premiums. If they do, there will always be opportunities to take profits at higher levels during the bull market.
Since the spot base position is always held, as long as there is no liquidation and BTC remains in a bull market, this strategy will inevitably outperform BTC. Additionally, profits gained from the grid strategy are continuously used to buy some further out-of-the-money Puts as protection against extreme market moves, which can bring unexpected "surprises" during lightning pullbacks in the bull market.#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ The strength of $BTC and $ETH still needs further confirmation.
The outlook for $ETH remains moderately bullish in the medium term, but cautious in the short term.
What will truly impact next is not just the candlestick charts, but the US Federal Reserve data.
If employment weakens and inflation cools, market expectations for rate cuts will rise, and high Beta assets like $ETH could benefit significantly.
Conversely, if inflation again exceeds expectations, and the US dollar and Treasury yields continue to strengthen, $ETH will face considerable short-term pressure. #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 🚨 $TRUMP IS AT A DECISION POINT — THE NEXT MOVE COULD COME FAST.
Weekend volume dried up while price stayed trapped around the $2.4–$2.6 zone. That kind of low-volume weakness can simply mean the market is digesting before making its real move.
By Monday or Tuesday, I’m watching for one of two setups:
📈 Doji reversal + volume → possible short squeeze higher
📉 Heavy-volume breakdown → this rally could be officially losing steam
#DailyOrbit As interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin takes the first hit!
$BTC's previous high has been smashed! It dropped quickly from 81,000 to 77,000, but it's not yet in a range where you can buy with your eyes closed. Why:
1. ETF funds reversed for the first time. The record of a net inflow of $2.6 billion on the 9th was broken on 8/28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.8M. This is the real driver of today's drop.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults I am the mid-term intelligence guy. With SanDisk Kioxia's $31 billion investment (over 6 years, until 2032), many are panicking: does this expansion spell bad news for NAND?
Let me translate for you: The new factory Fab3 in the north will only open in fiscal 2029, and before that, equipment installation and ramp-up are needed. The supply will still be tight in 2027–2028.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults At this position for ZKC, there's no need to look at news anymore; the on-chain anomalies have already revealed the intent. In the last half hour, net outflows from exchanges have tripled, with several large addresses completing seven main buy orders between 0.0535 and 0.0540, each around 20,000 USDT, a level of support that retail investors can't achieve. The naked candlestick had a wick down to 0.0531 at midnight but did not continue with volume, closing with a long lower shadow, indicating that liquidity below was fully absorbed. Now the price has returned to 0.0549, testing near the dense trading zone at 0.0552. Contract open interest has increased by about 20%, but funding fees have not surged, indicating that the new long positions are not chasing highs but are whales accumulating spot positions at low levels while simultaneously defending. I just delivered a package to the sixth floor of an old building without an elevator, sat on the stairs, and glanced at the order book; the buy one level thickness clearly outweighs the sell one level. Here, wait for a pullback to 0.0544–0.0550 to continue entering, with a stop loss at 0.0529, leaving no room for luck. The first take profit target is 0.0583, which is the previous round's trapped position accumulation area; after breaking through, look to 0.0610. Defense is a must, or else you won't even be able to pay for today's battery replacement.
$ZKC
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
@OKX星球 Don't rush to draw conclusions about the market just because of the ETF shift.
On August 28, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $201.9 million, ending a streak of 9 consecutive days of net inflows; during the same period, the Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $102.1 million, continuing 10 days of capital absorption.
The divergence lies here: BTC funds took profits near $80,000, which is slightly bearish in the short term; ETH funds showed stronger resilience, leaning bullish.
This is not just a simple daily ETF fluctuation, but more like institutional funds reallocating between BTC at high levels and ETH catching up.
Next, focus on two things: whether BTC outflows will expand, and whether ETH can continue to attract funds. Otherwise, high-level volatility in major coins may intensify.
Source: Decrypt
#BTC #ETH #Crypto100WIn the past week, Bitcoin jumped from over 60,000 to 80,000. Market sentiment shifted very quickly. At 60,000, people were still saying the bear market was bottomless, that the original family dog wouldn't play, and would never lack storage. As soon as 80,000 hit, voices like "historic bottom," "new bull market start," and "new highs" started appearing again. But what we need to be most wary of now is precisely this kind of sentiment shift. Because by the standards of previous crypto bear markets, this drop is far from enough. In real bear markets, BTC usually dropped 70% or even 80%. This round from the historical high to around $60,000 is about 50%. This has caused many spot traders to not be fully invested and are now anxious about buying on a low basis. So if you only look at historical declines, 60,000 is nothing like the traditional crypto bottom. But here's the problem. This round can't just use the previous 80% drawdown to get trapped. Because BTC is no longer the BTC it used to be. ETFs, institutions, stablecoins, derivatives, and macro funds have all come in, market caps are getting bigger, and long-term decline in volatility is a major trend. In the future, crypto bear markets are likely to no longer be cleared out every time with -80%. It could be: drops of 50%-60%, then a year-long sideways. In the past, it was price killing. In the future, it may be more about killing time. So the real important question now isn't 'whether this drop is deep enough,' but rather: what kind of bottom has this bear market actually reached? According to the lessons of veteran investors who have experienced three bull and bear cycles, a realThe key oil signal is not the initial spike above $90 Brent, but whether disruption persists after military risk moved closer to transport routes around Hormuz. Pressure on Iranian trade through planned U.S. bank sanctions could also tighten settlement channels even if physical flows continue.
My read: steady tanker traffic would favor a fading short-term risk premium, while repeated attacks or financing constraints would make the repricing more durable. The next confirmation should come from flows, not headlines. Not advice, just analysis.
#USIranTensionsHitOil$ZORA is just a boring altcoin pump to play with. The entire market is currently falling. Who gave you the courage to try to pump it? And if you're going to pump, then pump properly. The contract funding rate is still negative, and surprisingly, there are more longs than shorts. If you can actually pump it up like this, that would be unbelievable.
This clearly looks like a manipulative spot pump by a whale controlling the contract price, trying to attract attention during the market pullback to find someone to take the bag. Brothers, don't be fooled. As long as this coin keeps giving opportunities, I'll keep adding to my short position.I used to feel that "whitelisted assets" and DEXs together was a bit awkward. Uniswap v4 has recently made this happen.
Permissioned Pools allow restricted tokens like funds and securities to access AMMs. Real tokens are placed in a separate Adapter, and virtual balances are used for trading within the pool; each time tokens are swapped or liquidity is added, the contract checks whether the wallet is on the issuer's whitelist. The issuer can also pause trading and withdraw LP positions that are no longer compliant if necessary.
It has already launched on Ethereum mainnet and Sepolia, with institutions like Superstate and Securitize integrating.
My judgment is straightforward: this provides an additional usable liquidity channel for RWA. The cost is also clear—who can trade is still decided by the issuer, and the whitelist may fragment liquidity. I will continue to watch real asset launches and trading volume, and will not chase UNI just because of more "institutional narratives."
Data: Uniswap Labs, Uniswap Docs. Personal record, not investment advice.
$UNI #RWA$BTC 's previous high has been smashed! It dropped quickly from 81,000 to 77,000, but it's not yet in a range where you can buy with your eyes closed. Why:
1. ETF funds reversed for the first time. The record of a net inflow of $2.6 billion on the 9th was broken on 8/28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.8M. This is the real driver of today's drop, not a technical correction.
2. The 77k line has support. The last correction low (8/27) was at 76.9k, and below that is a dense support zone AI demand extending to storage and software indicates that this round of trading is entering a more challenging phase
Buying GPUs is the most straightforward approach—buy what’s lacking, orders are queued, and the narrative is clear. But moving forward, it gets complicated: storage depends on supply cycles, software depends on whether customers are willing to keep paying, and networking and security depend on whether companies truly change their processes
In the earnings reports of companies like Marvell, AI and data center demand is strong, but the stock price reaction isn’t as enthusiastic. The reason is simple: the market is no longer satisfied with hearing "AI demand is booming." It starts to question whether growth is already priced in, if gross margins can be maintained, and whether major clients will take away pricing power
The second half of AI isn’t about whoever is involved seeing gains, but about who can turn the hype into stable revenue
#财报观察员：AI需求延伸至存储与软件 The 10-year rolling return spread of the S&P 500 relative to U.S. Treasuries has surpassed 15%, marking the highest point since 1960, even more extreme than during 1929.
Such extreme divergence rarely lasts permanently. Historically, whenever the equity-bond return spread widened this much, it was followed either by a long-term rebound in bonds (with interest rates peaking and falling) or a valuation correction in the stock market. Everyone knows what happened after 1929; after the 2000 tech bubble burst, bonds also outperformed stocks for several years.
The current question is: can the Federal Reserve truly suppress inflation? If inflation remains sticky, long-term interest rates won’t come down, and bonds will continue to be suppressed. But if the economy really experiences a hard landing, the stock market valuation bubble will burst first, and bonds will instead become a safe haven.
Personally, I tend to believe that this 15%+ spread is unsustainable. It doesn’t mean the stock market will crash immediately, but rather that bonds’ relative performance may be much better in the coming years. From a portfolio perspective, it’s not wise to go all-in on stocks; appropriately increasing duration exposure might be a more rational choice.
Of course, timing is always the hardest part. But at least from a historical probability standpoint, now is the time to start considering rebalancing.As of today, $BTC is near $77,900, having just rebounded from the $77,000 level over the weekend; ETH is around $2,400. The market hasn't really weakened, but after surging above $80,000 earlier, profit-taking has clearly begun to appear. What's even more noteworthy is the structure of funds. Last week, BTC spot ETFs still recorded about $924 million in net inflows for the week, and ETH ETFs reached about $824 million, marking one of the strongest weekly inflows this year. In other words, it's more like "prices are adjusting, but institutional funds haven't withdrawn yet." It's just that BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs are starting to diverge. (KuCoin) So my market judgment is simple now: BTC $80,000 is not the end, but it's also not the point where you should blindly chase right now. The $77,000 area is a key short-term support zone. If it can hold here and break through $80,000–82,000 again, the market will have a chance to continue challenging the higher zone. Conversely, if $77,000 falls, the rapid rally starting from around $68,000 will require a longer period of oscillation and digestion. ETH is actually worth a closer look. ETH's recent performance has been decent, and its capital inflows are clearly stronger than BTC. The market is shifting from simple "BTC risk asset trading" to gradually revisiting Ethereum and Solana# Latest Updates
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell hawkish at Jackson Hole, reaffirming the rigid 2% inflation target; short-term US Treasury yields surged, September rate hike expectations now evenly split, higher probability in Q4.
- US-Iran tensions escalate, US military strikes Iranian missile launch sites, Iran retaliates by firing missiles at US bases; Iran admits sanctions caused 35% drop in imports and exports, 66% inflation in July, Brent crude near $90.
- Changxin Memory H1 results exceed expectations, revenue 150.3 billion yuan (up 874% YoY), net profit 77.6 billion yuan, Q2 gross margin 87.6%; sues US Defense Department to revoke military enterprise designation.
- OpenAI plans to stop providing model services to SpaceX's Cursor, Musk and OpenAI conflict escalates; Anthropic says it will increase computing power support for Cursor.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain conclusion: Powell prioritizes restoring credibility, market volatility expected, fundamentals of individual stocks remain key.
- Powell's hawkish stance pushes up short-term yields; only one nonfarm payroll and CPI before September, rate hike doubtful then, higher probability in Q4. US-Iran clashes push Brent crude near $90, geopolitical risks and high oil prices support inflation and long-term rates, suppressing risk valuations.
- Crypto under pressure: BTC 77,600, ETH 2415, ETF outflows 202 million. AI shifts to ROI validation, expected to fluctuate. Because $IBIT is driving most of the fresh BTC ETF demand, any slowdown in new creations could weaken the bullish case for Bitcoin.
IBIT accounted for 79.8% of the $2.84B rebound, while the other funds recorded $13.8M in net outflows during week two.
Interestingly, $BTC still slipped 0.6% despite $924.5M in ETF inflows—showing that strong ETF demand alone may not be enough to push price higher. 👀 Polygon recently disclosed the security issues fixed in the Austin and Kyoto hard forks. The vulnerabilities affected Polygon PoS's Bor and Heimdall clients. The fixes were first tested on Amoy, then activated on the mainnet, and only afterward were the details revealed. The official statement said no exploitation of these vulnerabilities was observed on the mainnet. Austin addressed two denial-of-service (DoS) paths in Bor. The first came from state sync events from L1 to L2: they execute contracts and precompiles but previously had no independent hard gas limit per block. A block filled with enough or particularly expensive state sync events could slow down block processing. The second came from the `TxDependency` field. Originally just a hint for parallel execution, it had no size limit, allowing malicious block producers to insert oversized data that could crash nodes processing the block. The Heimdall issue fixed by Kyoto better illustrates the nature of on-chain DoS. Transaction messages use `google.protobuf.Any` wrapping, and `Any` can nest further `Any` messages. Without depth limits, attackers can craft a cheap deeply nested transaction that forces all validators to perform costly decoding simultaneously. The sender pays a low cost, but the network bears an amplified cost. Therefore, DoS prevention cannot focus solely on transaction gas #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny #BTC high-level volatility, increased correlation with gold Good afternoon everyone!
The following is purely an objective logical deduction and does not constitute investment advice.
This time, analyzing BTC, ETH, and SOL from the perspectives of liquidity environment, chip structure, and valuation constraints, setting aside Federal Reserve events.
$BTC BTC
Liquidity: Mainly absorbs allocation funds from institutional ETFs, with a long-term capital attribute, insensitive to short-term market movements. Incremental funds mainly come from external institutions; existing on-exchange funds are unlikely to drive sustained large rallies.
Chips: Spot base positions are solid, with a large amount of chips held by institutions and long-term holders; the circulating floating chips account for a limited proportion. During declines, long-term chips are not easily sold; more often, leveraged long positions are liquidated.
Valuation constraints: No intrinsic cash flow; valuation depends on consensus and institutional allocation demand. The price ceiling depends on the position institutions are willing to allocate to crypto assets; the floor comes from global consensus.
Current status: Above 80,000, part of the institutional acceptance expectation has been priced in. Without new external incremental funds, it is easy to fall into range-bound volatility and difficult to break out into a one-sided trend.
$ETH ETH
Liquidity: Fund composition is mixed; part is institutional allocation, another part is DeFi and L2 ecosystem trading funds, with a high proportion of derivatives trading. Fund demands are not unified.
Chips: A large amount of tokens are staked and locked, reducing circulating selling pressure, but a large amount of historical trapped chips accumulate above. Ecosystem participants' holdings are stable, but trading chips move quickly in and out based on expectations.
Valuation constraints: On one hand, the market values it for infrastructure growth; on the other, L2 diverts mainnet revenue and SEC regulatory classification remains uncertain, continuously suppressing valuation.
Current status: When macro liquidity does not change significantly, the ETH/BTC ratio is hard to strengthen continuously. Only when the ecosystem narrative materializes substantially can relative returns open up; once market funds tighten, trading chips will be sold first, with a larger pullback than BTC.
$SOL SOL
Liquidity: Almost no large-scale institutional allocation; liquidity fully depends on on-exchange speculative funds, retail investors, and trading funds. External incremental funds entering the market will bring big moves; under existing conditions, only pulses can be made.
Chips: Staking proportion is low; many tokens are in a tradable state, chip turnover is very high, and long-term base positions are weak. Chips cluster during hot markets but disperse quickly when enthusiasm fades.
Valuation constraints: No stable cash flow as an anchor; valuation is entirely determined by market risk appetite. On-chain transaction volume and Meme popularity can push prices up short-term but rarely convert into long-term valuation support.
Current status: Highly elastic in incremental markets; poor sustainability in sideways markets. Once the market's profit effect weakens, it becomes the first target for fund reduction, with the largest pullback among the three.
Summary
Core differences among the three:
BTC is driven by external institutional increments, with stable chips and controllable volatility;
ETH is a game between institutional and ecosystem funds, constrained by regulation and value diversion;
SOL relies on on-exchange sentiment and speculative funds, with high elasticity accompanied by high drawdowns.
Market rotation: Incremental funds arrive in order BTC→ETH→SOL; when incremental funds dry up, the reverse cash-out occurs: SOL weakens first, then ETH, with BTC relatively resistant to decline. On Monday, the Seoul market experienced a sharp divergence, with foreign investors selling nearly $2.7 billion worth of chip heavyweights in a single day, while retail investors inside the market fully stepped in to buy.
Samsung plunged 8.70% in one day, whereas $SKHYNIX, which promised a full cancellation of 40 trillion KRW, narrowed its decline to 3.41%, showing stronger resilience against the drop.
The sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions suppressed global risk appetite, coupled with Samsung's move over the weekend to postpone the details of its buyback cancellation to next year, prompting foreign investors to seize the opportunity to concentrate on reducing semiconductor positions.
Assets with higher certainty of buyback realization withstood the impact of foreign investors' concentrated exit, while targets with vague details became the primary pressure points for position reductions.
If subsequent geopolitical disturbances cool down and foreign investors' net selling narrows, chip leaders supported by certain cancellation are expected to be the first to see position replenishment and liquidity recovery.
If external risk aversion continues to spread and triggers rising inflation expectations, the passive deleveraging process of foreign investors will continue to amplify the adjustment depth of high-valuation stocks.
Once retail investors' capacity to absorb exhausts or macro liquidity tightens further, the previously resilient buyback commitments may also be suppressed by broader sell-offs.
The most critical variable to observe in the coming week is whether the scale of foreign investors' single-day net outflow can stabilize and converge below the 30 trillion KRW threshold.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验because IBIT supplies most new ETF demand for BTC, slower creations from the fund would weaken the case for further BTC upside. it supplied 79.8% of the $2.84b rebound, and the other funds had $13.8m of net outflows in week two. bitcoin fell 0.6% despite $924.5m of inflows.Big shots showing off their presence, it's the same feeling as when we post on Moments,
Peter Schiff says Bitcoin is not a real asset.
Wall Street and institutions buying Bitcoin,
precisely value what Schiff calls a non-real asset.
Sounds counterintuitive, right?
But if you look at it from another angle, it makes sense.
Gold is physical, it indeed has value. But physical also means trouble.
You have to store it, transport it, and safeguard it.
Cross-border is even more troublesome, plus a bunch of regulations and physical restrictions.
What big capital fears most now is exactly these things.
There’s so much money, and debt risk is rising,
when it really comes to fleeing, hedging, and moving funds across borders, you can’t exactly run away carrying tons of gold bars.
Has gold ever been confiscated or seized historically? Plenty of times.
Schiff keeps saying gold is tangible and visible.
But he overlooks one thing:
Since capital entered the digital era, what matters most has changed.
Censorship resistance, cross-border transfer, fast settlement, no physical boundary constraints.
These are things gold struggles to achieve.
Buying some gold bars to hedge risk is possible, but for big capital, that’s not what they care about.
What they see in Bitcoin is something physical assets never had before:
Digital, scarce, globally liquid, and not easily blocked by any single country.
So Bitcoin isn’t here to compete with gold’s industrial attributes.
What it truly arbitrages is the fiat credit system and liquidity frictions in the real world.
You can understand it this way:
Schiff is still measuring assets with an old-era ruler.$BTC's rebound in August was indeed strong, but don't be fooled by the single-month performance — over the whole year, Bitcoin still dropped by nearly 30%. The current 78,000 level looks more like a bear market rally continuation rather than the start of a new bull market. There is heavy resistance above, with 81,000 and 85,000 being tough hurdles; the key support below is at 73,000-74,000, and if that doesn't hold, trouble awaits.
My personal target range for the end of the year is 95,000-145,000, but there's a premise: US Treasury yields must not surge further. If the macro environment suddenly turns hawkish and rate hike expectations reignite, the 70,000 level could be pulled down for retesting at any time. So don't expect to get rich overnight now; survive first, then talk about predictions.
In the market, lasting longer is more important than guessing right. $BTC$BTC surged to $80,000 and then dropped back down; this time, the funds to really watch out for
As of August 31, BTC has returned to around $77,000–$78,000, while on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $202 million, ending the previous consecutive days of inflows.
This is more noteworthy than just looking at the candlestick charts.
A few days ago, ETF funds kept flowing in, with a single-day net inflow reaching $606 million on August 20, and BTC followed suit, surging past $80,000. But at the high point, funds immediately loosened, indicating that the selling pressure around $80,000 is not light.
What’s more troublesome is that the macro environment hasn’t continued to support BTC.
Latest news shows oil prices have climbed back near $90, US Treasury yields remain high, and the market’s expectation for a Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 57%. This means the short-term US dollar liquidity environment is tightening.
So my current view on BTC is simple: $80,000 cannot yet be considered a true breakout.
If ETF inflows resume steadily, and BTC can firmly hold above $80,000, then there’s a possibility for further upward space; but if funds continue to flow out and $77,000 is lost, then the correction after this rally may not be over.
Especially now, the correlation between BTC and gold is becoming more obvious, indicating that funds are starting to treat it as a macro asset to trade, not just a pure crypto market trend.
Personally, I won’t chase the price at this level.
Whether $80,000 can hold is more important than whether it can break through. The two things to watch now are: whether ETF funds return, and whether the $77,000 level can hold.
$ETH $SOL
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Fundamental Research Report $TEAM / Atlassian (NASDAQ·SaaS/Collaboration) $190.41 (24h +2.58%)
Core Judgment: Atlassian ($TEAM) comprehensive score 55/100, rating Narrative over execution. The business fundamentals are mainly based on external paying customers, and the market cap to revenue multiple is still within a reasonable range.
Atlassian ($TEAM) is listed on NASDAQ, in the SaaS/Collaboration sector. Simply put: Jira + Confluence. Comparable to CRM, MSFT. Business growth relies on order delivery and market share expansion, with the core focus on whether revenue growth and gross margin match capital expenditure intensity. Macroeconomic interest rates and industry prosperity determine the valuation baseline. No involvement in token economics or on-chain settlement logic. Product implementation: officially operational with paid usage, revenue verifiable via SEC 10-Q/10-K filings; financial report data is legally disclosed. Latest version not found, no valid commits found in the past 90 days.
At the user level, MAU and customer numbers are based on 10-Q/10-K. Stock 24h trading volume $5.22M, circulating shares and market cap structure to be confirmed. Core focus on whether revenue growth rate and gross margin align with stock price expectations. Revenue side: operating revenue $6.57B (latest financial report/consensus expectation), gross profit estimated by industry average pending update, net profit to be confirmed by 10-K/10-Q, shareholder returns seen through buybacks and dividends. US-listed companies making money does not equate to token holders profiting; BTC-related stocks like MSTR/COIN require separate separation of BTC unrealized gains. Code side: no valid commits found in 90 days, no active contributors found, latest version not found. GitHub is level A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: Atlassian ($TEAM) is the listed entity, shareholder structure based on 13F/10-K disclosures. Primary partnerships are level A evidence via IR announcements; media mentions and industry conferences are level C/D and not used alone as commercial implementation evidence.
Valuation anchor: circulating market cap $48.20B, valued by P/E, P/S, EV/Revenue, not applicable for token unlocks. BTC-related stocks (MSTR/COIN/MARA) require splitting BTC exposure and core business for revaluation. Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): circulating market cap: Atlassian $48.20B, CRM $210.69B, MSFT $3.81T. FDV: Atlassian undisclosed, CRM $210.69B, MSFT $3.81T. Annual revenue: Atlassian $6.57B, CRM $43.94B, MSFT $331.84B. Monthly active addresses or users: Atlassian undisclosed, CRM undisclosed, MSFT undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official self-reporting or industry standards. Valuation: current market cap $48.20B, P/S (consensus revenue) 7.3x. Cyclical stocks (miners/GPU) use cycle-adjusted P/E. Pessimistic view cuts $48.20B in half, neutral maintains range, optimistic sees P/S expansion of 20-50%. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 55/100). Equity value anchor looks at revenue, net profit, buybacks, and dividends. Circulating market cap is reasonable or undervalued relative to fundamentals, FDV close to MC, no major unlocks, sell pressure controllable. Potential risks: rising macro interest rates pressuring valuation, AI capex investment below expectations, regulatory lawsuits (SEC/DoL). Ongoing focus: revenue growth, gross margin, buyback amounts, order backlog, institutional holdings changes (13F). Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not constituting buy or sell advice. Data deviation over 30% requires revaluation.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #USStocks #Research #OKXOrbit$ZORA demon coin, where do you think you're going~~ Watch how I take you down, haha brothers, this trade just opened a few minutes ago, and I already took it. Let me explain why I shorted it.
Currently, this coin has about 43 million USD in open positions across the network, and the overall long-to-short ratio is actually 6 to 4, meaning 6 out of 10 people are going long. So I think this coin is too heavily weighted, too many retail investors are long, it definitely can't be pushed up.
Also, this coin has only risen about 50 points today, but the funding fee has already gone negative. Like I said before, coins with such funding fees that easily go negative are usually controlled to the extreme by spot market whales. They use spot to pump the price while simultaneously closing out long contracts and opening short contracts on futures, which causes the negative funding fee.
So I shorted it without hesitation. Are there any brothers riding the same train? Are you going long or short? Analysis of the Next Trends for Bitcoin & Ethereum Based on Global Market Conditions
Date: August 31, 2026
1. Current Global Market and Crypto Market Background
Core Macro Changes: After the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains significantly above the 2% target (PCE 3.7%) and stated "there is still work to be done." The market interpreted this hawkishly, with a significant rise in the probability of a rate hike in September, long-term yields rising, and the US dollar strengthening, directly impacting the previous crypto rally logic driven by "Treasury buybacks + liquidity expectations."
2. Technical Structure and Key Levels
Bitcoin
• Short-term resistance: $79,000–$80,000 (a rebound pressure zone if broken below)
• Key support: $76,500–$77,000; deeper support at $75,000–$76,000
• Structure: shifting from a strong breakout to a high-level pullback; confirmation needed whether it stabilizes around $77,000.
Ethereum
• Resistance: $2,500–$2,550
• Support: $2,400–$2,450; deeper support at $2,300–$2,350
• Still above key moving averages, with a relatively better structure than some altcoins.
3. Upcoming Trend Scenarios (Considering Global Markets)
1. Continued Pullback/Sideways Bottoming Scenario (Higher short-term probability)
Global risk appetite cools, yields remain high, ETF inflows slow or turn to outflows:
• BTC may test $76,000–$77,000, possibly dipping to $75,000.
• ETH may fall below $2,400, approaching $2,350.
Trigger: continued US dollar strength, further rise in US Treasury yields, ongoing deleveraging of long positions.
2. High-level Sideways Stabilization Scenario (Neutral main scenario)
After pullback, buying emerges at support levels, institutional funds still provide some floor:
• BTC oscillates repeatedly between $76,500–$79,500.
• ETH consolidates between $2,400–$2,550.
This is a process of digesting overbought conditions and macro shocks, preparing for subsequent directional choices.
3. Rebound and Recovery Scenario (Requires catalyst)
If subsequent inflation data weakens, or the market reassesses the speech as "hawkish in words but actually restrained," combined with renewed ETF net inflows:
• BTC challenges $80,000 again.
• ETH rises above $2,550.
Currently, this scenario has relatively low probability and requires clear signals of macro or capital improvement.
4. Core Drivers and Observation Priorities
1. Macro pricing changes: whether US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and rate hike probabilities continue to rise.
2. Spot ETF capital flows: whether net inflows turn into sustained outflows, key to judging support strength.
3. Global risk appetite: US stock performance, gold trends, reflecting overall "devaluation trades" and risk asset sentiment.
4. Technical confirmation: whether BTC can hold $77,000 and ETH can hold $2,400.
5. Comprehensive Judgment
The hawkish stance at Jackson Hole interrupted the strong rebound previously driven by Treasury liquidity expectations and ETF capital. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a pullback and re-pricing phase after macro shocks. The global market (rising yields, stronger dollar, pressured risk assets) is exerting short-term suppression on crypto.
In the short term, further oscillation or slight dips are more likely to digest overbought conditions and leverage. The mid-term structure is not yet completely broken (previous breakthroughs of key moving averages and institutional allocation logic remain). If stabilization signals appear after a pullback to key supports, there is still a chance for another rise. However, short-term expectations for chasing highs should be lowered, prioritizing observation of support effectiveness and capital flows. $BTC Layer 2: The funding side can't hold — ETF outflows, options expiration
Looking internally again. The Bitcoin spot ETF's streak of 9 consecutive days of net inflows, totaling about $3 billion, abruptly ended last Friday — a single-day net outflow of $201.9 million. ETF trading was suspended over the weekend, cutting off the largest buying support for the recent rally.
Coincidentally, this weekend, Deribit had about 81,700 BTC options expiring, with a notional value of $6.44 billion. A large number of call options with an $80,000 strike price expired worthless. Market makers adjusted their delta hedging positions, further amplifying the selling pressure.
With buying stopped and selling coming in, can the price not fall?
Layer 3: The most alarming signal — the whales are moving
In the past two days, market maker Wintermute transferred 5,100 BTC to Binance, worth about $400 million. Institutional wallets on Coinbase and Kraken also moved large amounts of BTC to unknown addresses.
When whales move coins to exchanges, it usually means only one thing. Although it doesn't necessarily mean a full dump, this signal cannot be ignored. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 BTC maintains a high-level oscillation range between 76000-80500. From the weekly close perspective, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears at the current position.
The focus should still be on the 4-hour and daily charts, especially paying attention to the oscillation position on the 4-hour chart. There are two possibilities:
1. If the oscillation cannot hold above 79000 and fluctuates around the lower boundary of the range, be alert for an accelerated decline;
2. If it holds above 79000 and oscillates around the area above 79000, watch for another upward push.
$BTC $ETH Just recently, the market was still betting on a rate cut in September, but now it has seriously started discussing "whether there will be a rate hike in September." As of August 31, the market pricing for a September rate hike has risen to about 57%–60%, compared to only about 35% before. More importantly, Barclays has even revised its forecast for the rest of the year to include two 25 basis point hikes in September and December.
The trigger behind this is not just Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, but a very real issue: inflation is not falling fast enough.
The latest data shows that the U.S. July PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June; core PCE rose 3.3% year-over-year. There is still a significant gap from the Fed's 2% target.
So now the Fed faces a somewhat awkward situation: employment has started to cool down, but inflation has not fully come down.
July nonfarm payrolls actually decreased by 23,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and an average monthly increase of only 34,000 jobs over the past 12 months. This number is clearly weaker compared to previous increases of hundreds of thousands or even tens of thousands.
ADP also did not give a particularly strong signal, with only 44,000 private sector jobs added in July.
But the problem lies here.
If employment is already this weak, why does the Fed still dare to consider raising rates?
Because the current employment data looks more like a "gradual cooling," not a "sudden stall." The unemployment rate is still only 4.1%, while inflation remains clearly above the 2% target. In other words, the Fed does not see a reason to immediately rescue the economy but sees the risk of inflation picking up again.
Moreover, the latest external environment adds fuel to the fire.
On August 31, Brent crude oil has risen back to around $90, and the escalation of the Iran situation further increases energy price risks. If oil prices remain high, it will be even harder for U.S. inflation to decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.71%, and the 2-year yield has also risen to about 4.33%.
So now I actually think the most important thing ahead is not guessing whether the Fed will raise rates, but seeing if employment data can push back this "rate hike expectation."
On September 1, watch the JOLTS job openings; on September 2, watch ADP; and the real big event is on September 4—the August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate.
The market currently expects August nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 50,000 to 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.1%.
If the actual data is significantly below expectations, such as employment showing negative growth again and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% or even higher, then the nearly 60% probability of a rate hike will likely fall quickly.
But if nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations again and wage growth does not cool significantly, then it will be a completely different story.
At that time, a September rate hike will no longer be just "talk," but a real policy option on the table.
This is also what I am most focused on now.
BTC has recently fallen from near $81,300 on August 28 to about $77,700 on August 31, and gold also declined today, indicating that after rate hike expectations have warmed again, high-volatility assets have started to feel the pressure.
So next, don't immediately think "rate cuts are coming" just because of a poor employment report, nor should you short immediately just because of a good report.
What truly determines the direction in September is whether employment, wages, inflation, and oil prices can simultaneously give the Fed an answer.
Personally, I now lean toward: short-term risks have not been fully released, especially before the nonfarm payroll release, BTC, gold, and U.S. stocks are prone to significant expectation gap moves.
This time, what’s really worth watching is not the Fed’s next words, but the employment report on September 4.
Because the market has already priced in "rate hikes" in advance.
If employment data does not cooperate, this expectation could be sharply pushed back; if employment remains resilient, then the September trend might really change.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Here's a potentially controversial opinion: The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. The current 60% probability of a rate hike is a false impression created by "Wash's mouth rate hike".
From a technical perspective, the 2-year US Treasury yield has risen from 4.22 to 4.35, fully pricing in one rate hike. But the actual economic data does not support a rate hike: July's PCE has already declined, the job market is cooling down, and tech companies continue to lay off employees.
Wash said at Jackson Hole that "there is still work to be done," but this is standard hawkish rhetoric, not a commitment to action. Historically, the Fed rarely raises rates when the market pricing is below 70%, and 60% is an awkward position.
If there is no rate hike in September, it will be a "surprise" event, and BTC will jump directly from 78,000 to 82,000. Technically, the 77,000 support is solid, and the 4-hour MACD shows a bullish divergence, so an outbreak could happen at any time.
What do you think about the rate hike in September? I bet there won't be one.
$BTC #FederalReserve #RateHikeAs interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin couldn't hold up first.
$BTC TC has dropped all the way down from around 81,000 to now about 77,000, the cooling speed is indeed quite fast.
But honestly, this level is not yet a blind buy zone; it looks more like a quick pullback after breaking the previous high.
Today's decline is mainly due to continued ETF fund outflows.
On the 9th, the single-day net outflow exceeded 2.6 billion USD, another large-scale capital withdrawal after the wave on 8/28, which is the main reason for the market pressure, not just a simple technical correction.
Below, first watch if the support around 77k can hold.
If it continues to drop, 75k and 74k will be stronger support zones. After all, this round of rally involved a lot of leveraged funds, and if funds keep flowing out, the correction magnitude might be amplified.
However, one point worth noting: spot volatility hasn't completely deteriorated.
The 24-hour trading volume so far isn't particularly exaggerated, indicating that the market is still mainly influenced by ETF funds and leveraged positions, and it hasn't reached a stage of true panic selling.
My judgment is: before the rate hike in September is finalized, the market may remain volatile, so don't chase highs lightly.
I've already reduced some positions earlier to secure some profits, and will watch if the support levels can hold for the rest.
What do you think? Is this a normal correction or a signal before the previous high tops out?
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Data as of 13:35. BTC's 24-hour price change is close to zero, but the number of falling coins is still close to three times that of rising coins. There are still 289 coins declining in the market, and ETH and OKB have not caught up with BTC. Market pressure is easing, but funds have not yet fully flowed back to assets with higher risk. Trading is mainly concentrated in SOL, XRP, ZEC, HYPE, DOGE, with five coins totaling about 282 million USDT. Only ZEC barely turned positive, while the other four fell by about 2%–2.5%. The direction of high-volume assets remains weak, with prices just beginning to recover from their lows. $BTC｜78,061.1 USDT｜-0.09%。 In 24 hours, it traded between 77,000.0 and 79,401.4, with a turnover of about 297 million USDT. The current price is about 44% of the intraday range, having rebounded about 1.38% from the low. BTC is close to flat, having also left the lowest area, but has not yet returned to the upper half of the range $ETH｜2,436.51 USDT｜-0.78%。 The 24-hour high was 2,535, the low was 2,388, with a turnover of about 278 million USDT. The current low point rebounded about 2.03%, hovering around 33% of the intraday range. ETH has support, but is still weaker than BTC, so market risk appetite is not currently tilted toward it $OKB｜111.42Intensive Employment Data Releases Put Walsh's Policy Stance to a Real Test
What truly matters this week is no longer what Walsh said at Jackson Hole, but whether the employment data can validate his hawkish judgment.
Walsh's statement last week was very clear: he believes the overall U.S. economy remains resilient, the labor market is near full employment, and inflation remains the primary issue. If underlying inflation does not return to 2% fast enough, the Fed "still has work to do." After his speech, the market's pricing for a September rate hike surged from about 35% to nearly 60%. 
Now, the ball is truly in the employment data's court.
This employment data will decide whether the hawkish stance can continue.
A series of employment indicators will be released this week, culminating with the U.S. August nonfarm payroll report on September 4. The market currently expects August nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 50,000–60,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady around 4.1%. 
July's data already sounded an alarm for the Fed:
Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July.
So the market faces a very interesting contradiction:
Walsh says the economy is resilient, but the employment data is telling the market the labor market might not be as strong as imagined.
This is the biggest game this week.
If employment remains strong
For example:
Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations + unemployment rate declines + wages remain robust
Then Walsh's logic will be validated:
Strong employment → resilient economy → Fed has room to continue suppressing inflation → probability of a September rate hike rises.
In this case, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may rise further.
For BTC, this is troublesome:
Rising rate hike expectations → declining liquidity expectations → pressure on high-valuation risk assets.
Especially since BTC is currently at a high level, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting; if macro expectations turn more hawkish, volatility is likely to amplify.
But if employment weakens significantly
The situation is completely different.
If:
Nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations + unemployment rate rises + wage growth cools
Then the market will start reconsidering:
Should the Fed prioritize tackling inflation, or begin considering employment risks?
This would directly weaken Walsh's current hawkish framework.
Because although Walsh emphasizes inflation, the Fed does not focus solely on inflation.
If the labor market suddenly deteriorates significantly, the rationale for a September rate hike will be challenged.
At that point, we might see:
Weakening employment → declining rate hike expectations → falling Treasury yields → weaker dollar → support for BTC and gold.
So the most important thing this week is not a single data point.
I interpret it as a "data combination validation."
Particularly focusing on:
Employment numbers
Unemployment rate
Average hourly earnings
Revisions to previous data
If these four data points point in the same direction, the market is more likely to form a new consensus.
The most worrisome scenario is:
Nonfarm payrolls look decent, but previous data is sharply revised down and unemployment rises.
Such data easily causes intense market tug-of-war because it supports both narratives: "the economy remains resilient" and "employment is cooling."
For BTC, I am more focused on "how the market trades after the data comes out."
September rate hike expectations have already been repriced, but Walsh deliberately refuses to give clear forward guidance; he emphasizes judging based on data rather than committing to a predetermined rate path. 
So the real trading chain is:
Employment data → September rate hike probability → 2-year Treasury yields → dollar → BTC
If nonfarm payrolls are strong but BTC only briefly dips before quickly recovering, it suggests the market may have already priced in hawkish risks.
If strong nonfarm payrolls also bring:
2Y yields surging + dollar strengthening + BTC breaking key support
Then heightened caution for a high-level correction is warranted.
Conversely, if employment weakens significantly, September rate hike expectations drop quickly, and BTC can reclaim key levels, then previous macro pressure may quickly ease.
In short: Jackson Hole was just Walsh's "policy stance statement," but this week's employment data is the first real test of this policy logic. The stronger the employment, the more confident Walsh is to keep focusing on inflation; the weaker the employment, the more the market will question a September rate hike. For BTC, the real focus this week is not the nonfarm payrolls themselves, but whether they can change the market's original interest rate expectations. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 This week brings JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims and Aug payrolls, making labor data key for September policy pricing. July payrolls fell 23K and May-June were revised down 103K, signaling softer hiring. At Jackson Hole, Walsh said inflation remains above 2%, conditions are not restrictive and policy should prioritize price stability. September hike odds briefly rose from ~35% to nearly 60%, lifting yields and pressuring gold and BTC. The data will define room for his anti-inflation stance#LaborMarkeToday the overall market poured cold water on this sector.
The total market cap dropped 3% in 24 hours, and the top 12 protocols all uniformly gave back their 1-day gains, with declines ranging from 0.34% to 1.41%. The leading on-chain lending platform fell 0.86%, staking dropped 1.39%, and even Binance's usually stable staked Ethereum fell 1.41%. Wrapped assets slightly declined by 0.37%, and traditional brokerage on-chain businesses also fell 0.97%, with no segment in the entire chain holding up.
But when viewed from a 7-day perspective, the capital flow looks promising: Binance's centralized exchange rose 7.37% this week, the only one among these 12 to show a clear increase, and compliant exchange cross-chain bridges also rose 3.33%. The comparison makes it clear that funds haven't left this sector; they've just moved from on-chain back to centralized exchanges.
When the total market cap is declining, on-chain inactivity is normal; the key is whether funds have truly left or just returned to exchanges.U.S. employment data is coming, and the September rate cut expectations may face a real "stress test"
Don't just focus on what the Federal Reserve says these days; what could really cause the market to suddenly turn is the upcoming U.S. employment data.
Because the situation now is different. Previously, the market was trading on "weaker employment → September rate cut," but as of August 31, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting, expectations for a September rate hike have clearly increased. The latest market pricing shows the probability of a September rate hike has quickly risen from about 35% to nearly 60%.
More importantly, Walsh is no longer prioritizing employment but has put inflation back in the spotlight. He clearly emphasized that the 2% PCE inflation target is fixed, while the current year-over-year PCE is still as high as 3.7%, and core PCE is 3.3%, which is still significantly above 2%.
So the upcoming employment data sets are very important.
On September 1, the U.S. will release the July JOLTS job openings; on September 4, the August nonfarm payroll report will be published, with other employment indicators like ADP in between.
Some signs of cooling employment are already visible.
In July, U.S. nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. More notably, May and June nonfarm employment were significantly revised down by a total of 103,000, indicating that the previously observed employment strength was not as strong as imagined.
ADP data is also weak. In July, private sector employment increased by only 44,000, and the four-week average employment increase as of August 8 was just 11,750, clearly lower than levels from a few months ago.
But there is an easily overlooked issue here: cooling employment does not mean the U.S. economy has entered a recession.
As of August 22, initial jobless claims were only 203,000, with a four-week average of 205,500, still relatively low. Walsh also specifically mentioned in his Jackson Hole speech that the 4.1% unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market overall is closer to "full employment" rather than rapidly deteriorating.
This creates the most troublesome combination now:
Employment is slowly cooling, but inflation has not cooled enough to reassure the Federal Reserve.
This is why I believe we cannot simply interpret the market as "bad nonfarm = rate cut, good nonfarm = rate hike" going forward.
If August nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations and the unemployment rate rises, then September rate hike expectations will likely cool quickly, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may fall back, and gold, BTC, and high-valuation tech assets might get a breather.
But if employment data does not worsen significantly, and wages and employment show resilience again, then the nearly 60% probability of a September rate hike still has room to rise. Especially with PCE already at 3.7%, the Federal Reserve has little reason to rush to ease just because employment is cooling.
Personally, I now tend to see September as a "data showdown" rather than an early bet on a rate cut.
What really matters is not a single number but whether employment, wages, and inflation can all move down together.
If only employment weakens but inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve will be in a tough spot; if both employment and inflation cool together, the rate cut logic will regain the upper hand.
So the biggest risk for the market this week is not that the data is too good or too bad, but that the data deviates significantly from current market expectations.
This is especially important for BTC. Now that the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have regained support due to rising rate hike expectations, it is not surprising that risk assets are under short-term pressure.
My judgment is: the real direction in September is likely not decided by a single statement from Walsh but by the upcoming "report cards" of employment.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $CORE was attacked, 200 million core were transferred out, the coin price plummeted, and the project team only discovered it after three days. What kind of amateur team is this? Anthropic plans to submit its S-1 prospectus on September 7, with the core conflict revolving around the erosion of actual gross profit by the high computing power costs behind the $8 billion and $2 billion cloud giant investments.
Amazon's committed $8 billion and Google's committed $2 billion investments are tied to multi-year, tens-of-billions-level computing power procurement contracts. Cloud providers act as both financiers and suppliers, locking in the lower bound of computing power procurement costs.
The computing power bill is squeezing valuation space through risk appetite. When computing power costs consume revenue, the concentration of positions in AI high-valuation targets in primary and secondary markets will face severe repricing risk.
The upside scenario requires commercialization growth to outpace computing power expenditure and gross margin to be proven on an upward trajectory. If the S-1 shows a model service revenue gross margin above 50%, market risk appetite for $ANTHROPIC will be re-supported. A failure signal for this scenario is an overly high concentration of the top five customers, indicating a single monetization channel.
The downside scenario is characterized by computing power costs occupying the vast majority of gross profit, and the current cash burn rate being unable to support breakeven within three years. Under these conditions, funds heavily invested in tech stocks will reduce risk exposure, and liquidity tightening transmission may simultaneously drag down high-beta risk assets like $BTC. A failure signal for this scenario is cloud providers granting significant computing power discounts.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the revenue gross margin and cash burn rate disclosed in the September 7 S-1 prospectus.
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解$BTC has returned to a very interesting position today. The spot price is currently around $77,778, down only about 0.5% in 24 hours, ranging between $77,000 and $79,400. Looking at the price alone, this is normal fluctuation. But when you look at the entire market's trading volume, the situation is different: the total market 24H trading volume has surged about 55% compared to the previous period. The price hasn't moved far, but the money is suddenly moving very aggressively. This usually is not a "quiet sideways" market. What I want to know most now is not whether $BTC can immediately retake $80,000. Rather: with such large volume, who exactly is selling, and who is buying? Because volume itself has no direction. Behind every sell order, there is a buy order. What really matters is, after volume expands, which direction the price ultimately moves. Currently, the market sentiment index is still at 74, in the greed zone. This means the market is not truly panicking. At this time, those who have already profited have the motivation to take profits, while those still bullish are willing to buy. Two waves of capital are colliding. If I were a large investor, I would pay special attention to this kind of position. Because real large-scale position changes rarely happen when there is no trading. The market still has heat, people still believe in the rise, and volume is active enough, so chips can be exchanged quickly. Therefore, the fact that $BTC has not sharply dropped now cannot be directly interpreted as "strong support below." It could also be: the sell orders are being absorbed, so the price temporarily cannot fall further. Conversely Every time a bull market comes, someone always shouts, "This time it's different," talking about institutional entry, regulatory compliance, new narratives.
I've believed it twice, but every time the peak winds were especially cold, cold enough to sober me up.
Later I realized, there's really nothing new under the sun; prices rise a lot then fall, fall hard then rise, the pattern is very rigid.
Those who keep mentioning the "new paradigm" are either new retail investors or trying to sell you something.
I have a method: I go back to posts from three years ago to see where the "eternal bull market" from back then is now.
After reading them, all FOMO disappears, and I honestly follow my own pace.
When market sentiment is hottest, I find opening my account too hot to handle, so I just hide the app in the deepest folder.
When no one in the group is talking, not even cursing, I sneak out to take a quick look.
The buy orders I place at this time usually don't disappoint me.
I don't expect to buy at the lowest point, just to buy in the area where most people are desperate, which greatly increases my odds.
Selling is the same; I don't expect to sell at the highest point, just to sell when everyone starts shouting "new paradigm" again.
This trick is crude, but more effective than any technical indicator because it counters human nature.
Human nature in crypto never changes; the pendulum of greed and fear swings back and forth, and I wait at both ends of the pendulum.
The middle part jumping up and down has nothing to do with me, and I can't catch it either.
So now I only care about two things: whether everyone is greedy or fearful now, and whether my position in $BTC is low enough.
As for the news, policies, and big shots' speeches in the middle, I just treat them as background music.
No matter how lively the music is, it doesn't affect my placed orders; if the price hits, the order executes, if not, forget it.
Recently there was a sharp drop, and the group was crying and complaining; I followed my plan and added a position in $ETH.
After adding, I didn't check; a week later I looked again, it had bounced back quite a bit, so I sold some in batches.
The profit wasn't much, but the whole process was reassuring, without any hesitation.
This is why "responding" is better than "predicting"; you can never guess tomorrow, but you can prepare for the day after tomorrow.
Now I open the exchange less than five times a day, each time no more than two minutes.
I glance at the price, confirm if my orders have executed, then close it, not leaving an extra second.
The time saved is used for reading, exercising, and spending time with family; those things yield much better returns than candlestick charts.
Honestly, every minute you spend watching the market is a tax on your attention that the market takes for free.
I refuse to pay that tax anymore; whoever wants to pay it can go ahead.
Anyway, the pendulum is still swinging; I stay where I should be, neither fighting nor scrambling.
When the pendulum swings to an extreme next time, I'll make a move; otherwise, I just play dead.
Playing dead is an art; once mastered, it's more stable than trading every day.
Today the pendulum is near the middle; I have nothing to do, so I might as well go downstairs for a few laps.
After running, the price will probably still be the same, but my cardiopulmonary function is a bit stronger.
This trading, no matter how you calculate it, is not a loss.$BTC Night raid on Hormuz, the bulls got schooled again
Last night the US military took action on the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin directly dropped below 77,000, with 180 million liquidated in 1 hour, longs accounted for 96%
This script has been played many times, rumors of Iran closing the strait in 2025 caused 150 million liquidations; Israel attacking Iran caused 230 million liquidations. Yesterday's 180 million is not even new, more like copy-paste. What amazes me is that every time people rush in as if this time is different. But once the war starts, all the bulls lie down. $ETH
Once Hormuz is hit, oil prices will rise, inflation expectations will increase, no chance of rate cuts, liquidity tightens, and the first to get drained are volatile markets like ours. But every time at such a juncture, the comment section is full of bottom-fishing, then when liquidation data comes out, everyone goes silent again $SOL
But to be fair, 180 million is not that big for this theme, even milder than the previous two times. The key is how Iran responds next. If it just ends like this, then it's just a pin action, drop and done; if it escalates, the air force might still be on the way #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 🚨 Breaking｜Kharg Island "bombed" has not been confirmed yet
Fact update: The so-called footage of Kharg Island being bombed previously released by Donald Trump has been confirmed as an AI-generated video; so far, neither the US military nor Iran has confirmed an actual attack on Kharg oil facilities.
Market reaction: Brent remains near $90, but the current oil price risk premium mainly comes from US attacks on Larak, Iranian retaliation, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, rather than the destruction of Kharg supply facilities.
Impact chain: Kharg attack unconfirmed → extreme supply disruption risk decreases → further crude price surge requires new catalysts → inflation/US debt pressure marginally reduced → gold, US stocks, and BTC are again more influenced by the Fed and yields.
My judgment: Do not trade on the narrative that "Kharg has been bombed." The real main storyline currently remains the Strait of Hormuz shipping risk + Fed hawkishness The flow of funds in the cryptocurrency market has recently shown a picture worth taking a closer look at. After nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs suddenly saw a net outflow of about $201.9 million on August 28. Those nine days of strong accumulation brought over $3 billion in capital to the market, so this shift naturally prompted many to reassess the current situation. But interestingly, capital has not left the crypto world as expected. During the same period, Ethereum's spot ETF continued to attract institutional capital, and XRP recorded the largest weekly ETF inflow since 2026. This may indicate that what we see is not "money leaving," but more like "money changing direction." Bitcoin remains the most significant institutional asset in the entire crypto market, and this has not changed. However, the latest funding data reminds us that institutional demand is never one-way. A single negative net outflow does not necessarily mean a trend reversal; institutions may be taking profits at high levels or adjusting positions after a strong rally. However, it is worth noting that this timing is somewhat subtle—Bitcoin previously encountered resistance around the $80,000 area and is now fluctuating back near $77,000. When prices consolidate and ETF flows weaken, the next few trading days become especially critical. In contrast, the signals sent by Ethereum are more persistent. Since August 11, Ethereum spot ETFs have maintained positive inflows, maintaining this continuityOver the weekend, $BTC pulled up to 79300 and then continued to decline, essentially a false breakout caused by low liquidity: institutions and market makers left the market over the weekend, and the order book depth was 30%–40% thinner than on weekdays. A small amount of capital could push the price to resistance levels, creating a "breakout" illusion, but lacking real buying support#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults 🇨🇳 Interest rate hike expectations heat up, Bitcoin takes the brunt!
$BTC quickly fell back from the previous high of $81K, once dropping to around $77K.
Now is not the time to "blindly buy the dip," and the reason is simple:
📉 ETF funds have reversed for the first time.
The previous record of about $2.6B net inflow over 9 consecutive trading days was broken on August 28, with BTC spot ETF seeing a single-day net outflow of about $201.8M.
🔥 Interest rate hike expectations + weakening ETF funds have become significant pressure for this rapid BTC pullback.
Next, the focus is on whether $77K–$78K can hold and if ETF funds will flow back.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelationTuesday's JOLTS is only a probe; Friday's non-farm payrolls will determine the nature of this BTC retracement.
July's non-farm payrolls have already decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months were revised down by a total of 103,000. Now, seeing weak employment again, the market may not only trade on easing but might also start worrying about growth.
BTC is near 77,969 on the 4-hour chart, pressured below the EMA20 at 78,231. I tend to treat it as a weak consolidation first: if employment softens but volume increases to reclaim 78,231, then look towards 81,520; if the data is weak but it breaks below 76,847, it indicates that the "weak employment is bullish" thesis has failed. The S&P on the right side is only considered as a risk appetite background; if US stocks also fall, don't insist on liquidity being bullish.
$BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
For information organization and personal views only, not investment advice.$UNI Value Rebound: Deflationary Logic is Reshaping Valuation
$UNI surged over 16% today, returning to $5. Behind this volatility, the fundamentals have undergone a fundamental change.
The most critical turning point is the direct linkage between protocol revenue and token value. Since the protocol fee mechanism was launched at the end of last year, part of the fees has entered the on-chain burn process. About 4.64 million UNI have been permanently burned in the past 90 days, and with the advancement of the v4 version and multi-chain deployment, the scope of fee capture continues to expand.
Incremental capital is also worth noting. Tokenized stock trading has exploded, with Uniswap's weekly trading volume increasing by about $325 million; Robinhood Chain has been online for less than two months, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $20 billion. This migration of external assets brings real traffic, rather than internal DeFi circulation.
The larger the trading volume, the faster the burn, the tighter the supply—a clear deflationary model is taking shape. Once the DeFi market restarts, UNI, which has fundamental support, deep liquidity, and scarcity expectations, will be easier to attract capital inflows than pure concept tokens. The same old face, but the core is already different.