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Looking at Bitcoin $BTC historical trends over a longer period, I am increasingly skeptical of the so-called "four-year cycle."
Halving does affect supply, but it doesn't explain why the market suddenly accelerates, nor why the cycle can be disrupted by unexpected events.
The LUNA crash, the FTX collapse, and last year's 1011 event—each time the market rhythm truly changed, it wasn't because "time was up," but due to panic, greed, and a stampede of funds.
If you only look at halving dates, BTC does seem to follow a pattern; but when you factor in human nature and black swan events, the so-called four-year cycle isn't that magical.
The market has never traded according to the calendar.
Halving is just a variable; what truly determines bull and bear markets is human nature.DeFi is in trouble again...
#Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块
Tectonic is suspected of being manipulated due to low liquidity asset prices; attackers borrowed a large amount of assets, and some funds were even transferred cross-chain. Subsequently, Cronos paused block production. The project team is still investigating, and the final loss has not been confirmed.
Honestly, when seeing "pause block production," the first reaction is definitely: Can a public chain just stop whenever it wants?
But when assets are actually flowing out, continuing to operate might only help attackers move money. A short pause to stop the bleeding, I can understand; the problem is who decides, how long the pause lasts, and whether the process is transparent. If every incident relies on admins pulling the plug, then the so-called decentralization is indeed a bit awkward.
What should be questioned more this time is why Tectonic allows low liquidity assets to bear such high collateral value. If the price is slightly pulled, a large amount of real money can be borrowed. The oracle is just the entry point; the collateral cap and risk control parameters are the final gate.
If the funds are still in similar protocols, well, don’t rush to talk about faith. Reduce positions, cancel high-risk authorizations, and wait until the loss and compensation plan are clarified before deciding.
On-chain yields can be earned slowly, but if the principal is gone, it’s really gone.Sun Yuchen has been practicing this playstyle for 20 years;
In 2019, he spent 4.56 million USD on a lunch with Buffett, then bailed citing kidney stones, missing the meal but grabbing all the trending attention.
In 2024, he spent 6.2 million USD to buy a banana stuck on a wall and ate it publicly.
In 2025, he went to space and came back silent for three days.
Every move precisely hit the traffic flow and left a way out.
Don’t think he’s just hyping; behind it all is business. His stablecoin on the TRON chain is worth over 86 billion USD, accounting for nearly 30% globally — it’s real business.
The label of scamming investors is true, the black-and-white accusations are true, and the real money is true.
What’s most extreme? He’s outside the country, not in China, so no matter how much people talk, it doesn’t matter.
He’s been barred from entering mainland China since June 2018, hasn’t set foot on the mainland for eight years, yet the trending topics, traffic, and lawsuits are all in China’s courts.
A person who can’t return to the country ironically lives off domestic controversies. In the long article, the line "Can you come to Beijing? I fell silent" was said by netizens to be the most honest sentence in the whole text.
He’s still looking for new targets; once found, he puts them on the fire to roast. All of this is for his attention, his business, and his emotions.#Anthropic: New Developments in IPO, Prospectus Planned for September Release
This IPO has a special design: it considers allowing existing shareholders to directly sell part of their shares during the listing phase, while imposing a longer lock-up period than the usual 180 days on some shareholders, balancing early investors' desire to cash out and reducing selling pressure that could impact the stock price after listing.
The core market contention now lies in the real data within the prospectus.
On one hand, Anthropic has already achieved quarterly profitability, its enterprise API business is growing rapidly, and it holds massive compute power purchase orders, painting a very full story; on the other hand, the huge compute power expenses continue to consume cash flow, and there is significant controversy over whether the high revenue forecasts for 2028 can be realized.
The impact on the crypto market should be viewed rationally.
✅ Optimistic scenario: The prospectus shows strong performance, the AI sector sentiment is high, driving a general recovery in risk assets, and BTC gains sentiment support.
⚠️ Pessimistic scenario: Valuation expectations are too high, subscription is lukewarm, the AI sector faces valuation cuts, institutional funds will undergo capital rotation, and some AI concept coins will face diversion pressure.
It is important to distinguish the primary from the secondary: The Anthropic IPO is a sector disturbance, but the major trend of BTC is still dominated by US Treasury yields, US dollar liquidity, and spot ETF funds. Do not place all trading logic on this single event.#Moonwell与Avici接连出险，链上应用风控受审视
Latest on-chain data shows that Brother Maji currently holds about $114 million in long positions, with around $100 million concentrated in ETH. The ETH entry price is about $2463, and the liquidation price is about $2307.
It still looks very strong, but one detail is very important:
In the past few days, his account funds have dropped from $11.15 million to about $8.8 million, not due to a one-time liquidation, but through continuous stop-losses and position reductions during price fluctuations.
This is quite different from the previous approach of stubbornly holding 25x or 40x leverage until the end.
Now his core logic seems to be:
Still bullish on direction, but no longer relying entirely on a single position to hold at all costs; instead, controlling drawdowns through reducing positions and stop-losses, while concentrating the main chips on ETH.
More interestingly, his ETH long position is only about $156 away from the liquidation price, meaning if ETH continues to fall, the leveraged position will still face significant pressure.
So what’s really worth studying this time is not "Brother Maji went all in again."
But that a long-term high-leverage trader is starting to learn to use stop-losses to buy survival space.
This might be his biggest change this time:
Before, he was betting on direction; now he’s betting on whether he can survive longer.BTC 78062, ETH 2436, touched 2600 and above 79000 in the early morning, woke up and it was all gone.
The Strait of Hormuz is at war again, Iran shot down a US MQ-9 drone, Trump posted an AI video threat, US forces launched a night raid destroying the launcher.
I've seen this script too many times. Whenever negotiations approach, this happens; if you don't let the US gain bargaining chips in the Middle East, they will never let your risk assets be stable.
Gold fell below 4400, BTC followed down, indicating funds are closing positions and adding margin, not rotating for hedging.
Conclusion: This conflict is limited in scale, more like a pressure tactic before negotiations. If the US stock market doesn't escalate further after opening, the decline is just short-term emotional venting.
No rush in operations, wait for one hour after the opening to confirm direction before acting. 【Only one thing to focus on in September: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting】
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17, will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates?
My current conclusion is: no change.
Many friends who are long or going all-in on spot are worried that the Fed will raise rates in September, causing BTC to plummet and the bear market to return.
But if you understand the current economic situation in the U.S., you will know the Fed will not raise rates lightly.
【The real risk may not be in the U.S., but in Japan】
If the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential continues to widen, the yen will come under pressure again. To stabilize the exchange rate, Japan may need to sell U.S. dollar assets and reduce some U.S. Treasury holdings.
Once U.S. Treasuries are sold off by major overseas buyers, the U.S.'s own financing costs will further increase.
This is a chain reaction of rate hikes that could backfire on the U.S.
Additionally, the U.S. August employment data has not yet been released. If employment performance is poor, the likelihood of a rate hike is even lower.
The U.S. August unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll data will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time on September 4.
So in September, just pay attention to two dates:
September 4: watch the employment data.
September 17: watch the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
Combined with the yen exchange rate, from July 30 to August 26, the U.S. and Japan jointly intervened, spending a total of 96 billion USD, but the USD/JPY returned to 160.
If the Fed raises rates again, a conservative estimate is that USD/JPY could reach 180, and the subsequent chain of reactions is unimaginable.
The above content is only a personal market analysis and trading idea record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position and risk according to your own situation. The United States owes 40 trillion! This number is rewriting the rules of the crypto game.
What does 40 trillion mean? The U.S., the world's largest GDP, owes an amount equal to its output of two years without eating or drinking.
What does this mean for Bitcoin $BTC?
First, the cracks in the U.S. dollar's credit are widening. Trump pushed the strategic Bitcoin reserve, gold prices surged to $4500 but couldn't hold, and funds are voting with fiat devaluation hedges, boosting BTC's "digital gold" narrative.
Second, the fiscal dilemma forces a policy shift. The debt keeps rolling over and growing; in the long run, printing money is the only way out. The Fed stubbornly resists rate cuts, but under the pressure of 40 trillion in interest, the rate-cut cycle will be delayed but inevitable, which is the fuse for BTC to hit 100,000.
Third, tokenized U.S. debt is exploding: BlackRock BUIDL retakes first place, with a scale of 2.8 billion, and the market rose from 15 billion to 16 billion.
The worse the macro environment, the more attractive BTC becomes. Short-term pain, long-term bull market, hold patiently. After the sharp drop, don't rush to take sides
This morning's plunge liquidated $346 million long positions, with BTC bottoming at 77,500 and ETH breaking 2,400. On the surface, it looks like a US-Iran skirmish plus hawkish Wash, but I prefer to interpret it as a leverage liquidation.
The key is not how much it fell, but where it stopped. BTC just stopped above the previous low at 76,800, and ETH also found resistance near 2,400. After a volume spike, volume quickly shrank, indicating those who needed to exit have done so, and the remaining holders are reluctant to sell at this level.
It's hard to set stop losses when chasing shorts. Downside space is limited, but a rebound could come quickly—there's still a CME gap, and if sentiment improves after the US market opens, filling the gap could produce a bullish candle.
Here's how I see it:
BTC holds 76,800, wait for rebound confirmation; if it climbs back above 78,500, short-term bears should be cautious. ETH first watches 2,400; if it holds, there's a chance to reach 2,450; if not, look to 2,350.
Gold XAUT didn't move today, which isn't bad. Without a rise in safe-haven demand, funds won't rush out one-sidedly, giving BTC a chance to catch its breath.
As for small coins like BICO, no rush now. Until BTC stabilizes, altcoins won't have independent rallies.
The liquidation numbers are large but often mark emotional extremes. Staying calm is more important than impulsiveness now; wait for the market to find its direction before following—it won't be late.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？
$ETH $BTC Whether $xMU can reverse depends crucially on two major events on Thursday and Friday!
If the data leans dovish, the rebound strength of storage stocks like XMU will be even stronger than BTC.
Three details:
NVDA's after-hours -5% sentiment extension. Micron's storage + HBM logic is linked to NVDA; last night NVDA dropped 5%, and XMU couldn't avoid it.
HBM4 mass production is still progressing. Micron's HBM4 capacity ramp-up is the core of this narrative, but the market's short-term attention was stolen by NVDA's earnings report.
FY26 Q2 record high is already priced in. 134M year-over-year revenue is a historical high, but the logic of "good news is bad news" is also fermenting.
My thinking: 900-920 is the range for scaling in. XMU is not suitable for chasing; consider it again when it pulls back to the 900 integer level. If US stocks see dovish PPI on Thursday and non-farm payroll data on Friday, the rebound strength of storage stocks like XMU will be even stronger than BTC. Bassett described the current economic sanctions on Iran as an economic "Normandy landing," but it is clear that the actual effect is not ideal, more like unilateral economic pressure from the U.S. rather than multilateral coordination.
After the announcement of this economic plan, the UK, NATO member Turkey, all remained silent, and Pakistan even stated it has no obligation to respond to such unilateral sanctions.
It is obvious that the decline of the U.S. military and economic power globally is becoming increasingly apparent. The inability to guarantee allies' interests and the practice of only exploiting allies have long caused dissatisfaction. Silence and isolation are just the beginning. If Trump continues recklessly, a collective backlash is very likely.
Bassett clearly stated in the report that unless Chinese companies face secondary sanctions, it will be difficult to achieve victory in actions against Iran.
Indeed, Bassett hits the core of the problem, but should the U.S. do this? Will Trump allow it? September is approaching, and Chinese leaders are about to visit the U.S. Making empty claims is possible, but if it turns into diplomatic hostility, can Trump bear the consequences?
Although the risk of war between the U.S. and Iran has not yet expanded globally, the resulting rise in energy prices has already plunged the world into an era of high inflation. If crude oil prices spiral out of control, especially for U.S. system allies, inflationary pressure will be greater. Forced to raise interest rates to curb inflation, they will also have to bear the increased risk of economic recession, risks the U.S. cannot shoulder for them.
Alliances are based on mutual benefit; when benefits end, so does the alliance. Now, if Trump cannot secure enough benefits for allies, why should they help you?
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 $AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) had a tough week.
Last Friday it closed at $106.23, dropping 6% in one day, barely recovering to around $107 after hours. Despite this rough week, it has still more than tripled since the beginning of the year, with a little over a threefold increase in one year; it's just that the surge to $233 in May was too wild, and now it's effectively halved from that peak.
The fundamentals aren't bad: Q2 revenue was $192 million, up 86% year-over-year, and Non-GAAP is already positive. The company itself says orders for 800G and 1.6T are so high that capacity can't keep up, and Q3 guidance aims to reach $255–$290 million. Most analysts still recommend buying, with an average target price around $163.
But what annoys the market most now is: on August 21, they did another $600 million ATM offering, the third round this year. It's understandable that expansion requires money, but shareholders are understandably unhappy about dilution, so the stock price is being pressured by sentiment.
In short: business is good, but they don't have enough cash from operations and have to dilute again. In the short term, it depends on whether sentiment can recover; in the medium term, it depends on whether the production lines can really deliver the orders. Not a recommendation, decide for yourself. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #星球日报 #OKX星球话题来啦 In this market wave, two short positions were almost opened at the highest points and closed at the lowest points, luckily preserving profits. At that time, ETH lingered around 2440 without falling further, and I vaguely felt something was off, so I chose to exit first. The original plan was to wait for it to break support and then short again on the rebound. Unexpectedly, instead of falling, BTC and ETH rose along with the risk-off sentiment triggered by geopolitical conflicts, likely driving altcoins to collectively catch up.
Looking back, this exit actually avoided a round of profit retracement. The sudden market shift was somewhat related to Trump's unexpected statement, a typical case of unforeseen volatility. Notably, Charles Schwab plans to list SOL, AVAX, and LINK, clarifying institutional entry paths and improving capital expectations. Meanwhile, Powell emphasized inflation risks, with September rate hike expectations heating up, leaving macro uncertainties.
In the short term, BTC is tugging between bulls and bears at high levels, with stronger correlation to gold, reinforcing its safe-haven attribute in market pricing. However, news-driven rallies often lack sustainability; without incremental funds following up, correction pressure cannot be ignored. Currently, it is more suitable to observe rather than chase highs, and reassess direction after sentiment cools.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; please control your positions rationally and manage risks well. $BTC $ETH $SOLBrothers, on Monday midday, the sharp drop in the early morning washed out a lot of people. BTC dropped directly from 79,300 to 76,900, ETH hit a low of 2,386, SOL hit a low of 100.2, all are spikes.
$BTC is now at 77,967, with support at 77,000; as long as 76,900 doesn't break, it's a good sign. The 15-minute indicators have turned positive, it can't fall further. I placed orders to buy between 77,200-77,400, stop loss at 76,700, target 78,500, if it holds, then look at 79,300. The order at 75,555 is still there, will add when it reaches.
$ETH at 2,434, pulled back from 2,386, the ETF has had net inflows for 11 consecutive days, which is real; the Cronos issue is just a short-term emotional impact. I continue to hold my long position, will buy more on a pullback to 2,400-2,415, stop loss at 2,375, target 2,460-2,510.
$SOL at 102.5, the hardest hit, dropped straight from 107 to 100.2. The market is speculating on Robinhood's blockchain project, but the governance upgrade and the V1 launch on the 9th remain intact. As long as 100 doesn't break, it's buyable; I placed orders at 100.5-101 waiting, stop loss at 99.4, target 104-106.5.
On the news front, fighting has resumed between Russia and Ukraine, putting pressure on risk assets, but on-chain whales are still accumulating, smart money hasn't fled.Why is $UNI so strong? Criticized for five years, recently UNI's performance has surprised many. Despite the overall market not being particularly booming, UNI has charted an independent course. Why? As the absolute leader among decentralized exchanges, it can collect tens of billions of dollars in fees annually. But for a full five years, UNI token holders could only participate in governance voting and did not receive a single cent. A protocol that makes huge profits but whose token captures no value—this has been criticized by the community for five years. This year, the UNI protocol officially activated the v4 fee switch, starting to use fee income to buy back and burn UNI. The token transformed from being only for voting to being deflationary and dividend-paying, completely rewriting the entire logic. However, this alone was not enough to drive UNI's rise. A bigger catalyst came in July this year with the launch of the Robinhood Chain mainnet. UNI was a core partner from the start and became the main market maker on this chain. In one month, the daily trading volume of stock tokens on UNI increased tenfold, reaching $130 million. UNI unexpectedly became the "settlement layer" for global users trading U.S. stocks 24/7, and protocol revenue surged accordingly. Data observable on Alpaca explains everything: holder income was $4.38 million in July and doubled to $8.75 million in August. As of the end of August, UNI has cumulatively burned 110 million UNI tokens worth $630 million, with daily burns exceeding $400,000 in August, Robinhood.Why is downloading a Web3 app nowadays harder than getting a driver's license? 😤
Sometimes it's really frustrating. You have to write down 12 words just to register a wallet, and to make a transfer you need to understand what Gas is, what a cross-chain bridge is, and which one is the mainnet.
No wonder Web3 has been shouting about Mass Adoption for so many years, but except for veteran users, ordinary people can't even get a foot in the door.
ACO / ALD has taken the toughest "anti-user hassle" route:
No need to remember those user-unfriendly private key mnemonics, social accounts allow seamless login;
The barriers for on-chain transfers and interactions are completely removed, the experience is as smooth as using mainstream Web2 apps.
Technology is meant to serve people, not to hassle them. Only when products become as foolproof as WeChat can the industry truly welcome its spring.
When you first encountered Web3, which anti-user design drove you crazy? Let's chat in the comments 👇
#ACO #ALD #Web3PainPoints #UserExperience #BlockchainDaily #Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块
The leader has something to say
Tectonic was hit for 75 million, the attacker pushed the TONIC price up 100 times in 20 minutes, using the inflated collateral to borrow a large amount of assets. Cronos directly stopped block production on the entire chain, blocking most of the funds.
The chain halt is very controversial. Blocking fund outflows is correct, but the precedent that the chain can be stopped at any time means something users need to rethink. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Three security incidents in one week: Moonwell and Tectonic were price manipulations, Avici was a third-party contract vulnerability. DeFi trust costs are rising, and users will become more selective.
On the market, BTC is around 77,000, continuing to hold ZEC short positions with floating profits of over 90 points. Oil prices are above 90, geopolitical tensions are rising, short-term direction is bearish. All long positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback, no chasing or resisting.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, stop losses must be set on positions, good luck.#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
The demand for AI computing power hasn't cooled down yet. Nvidia has already delivered its first test, and now it's Broadcom and Dell's turn.
As long as Broadcom and Dell's data continue to prove that AI capital expenditures are spreading, this AI rally isn't over yet.
In the past, everyone speculated on AI by focusing only on Nvidia and GPUs.
But now it's different. After buying GPUs, you also need to buy servers, networking equipment, custom chips, optical modules, and finally, someone has to turn this computing power into real enterprise revenue.
Especially Broadcom, with custom AI chips plus networking, is essentially benefiting from the continued expansion of AI infrastructure.
Dell is even more direct; whether AI servers really sell well will be revealed in their earnings report.
Of course, if another scenario occurs: AI orders keep growing, but profit margins start to fall, or companies begin to slow capital expenditures, then caution is needed.
Because the market ultimately pays not for the "AI story," but for whether AI can actually make money.
So what I care about more is, when will the massive AI investments truly turn into cash flow?
If the answer becomes clearer, the AI rally can continue.
If the answer becomes more uncertain, then these high valuations will sooner or later require someone to pay the price.
The real second half of the AI bull market isn't about who sells more chips, but about who can turn computing power into profit. $xDELL Regarding this week's AI earnings reports, the company I want to focus on most is no longer Nvidia, but rather Broadcom.
The reason is simple: Nvidia has already proven that "AI has buyers." What really needs to be verified now is how far this AI money can actually flow down the industry chain. Broadcom's custom AI chips and networking business, Dell's AI servers, and Snowflake's enterprise AI applications correspond exactly to the three segments of chips, hardware, and software. Whose revenue and profits can continue to rise is who truly benefits from the second wave of AI dividends, rather than just riding the hype.
If I had to pick the sector that will realize profits first, I would still lean towards servers and chips.
Not because I think software has no chance, but because the most realistic AI demand right now is still "to first stack up computing power." Data center expansion, GPU deployment, network equipment upgrades—these are all expenses customers are already paying real money for, so revenue realization on the hardware side will be faster. Software requires enterprises to be truly willing to pay long-term, which obviously takes a longer cycle.
But if you ask me what I would prefer to allocate to in the long term, I actually wouldn’t always just focus on hardware leaders.
Hardware is currently the easiest place to see money, but software is where profit margins can truly widen in the future. Only when enterprises start continuously increasing spending, purchasing more, and renewing subscriptions for AI features can AI be considered to have transformed from "frantically burning capital expenditure" into something that genuinely improves business models.
So for these three companies this week, I am actually looking at three different things: Broadcom to see if AI computing demand can continue to expand outward, Dell to see if capital expenditure can continue to convert into orders, and Snowflake to see if enterprises are truly willing to pay long-term for AI.
If all three earnings reports can provide answers, then the AI market can be said to have truly entered the next phase.
After all, the story so far can no longer just ask "How big is AI?"
Now the question is: who ultimately really made money from this.
$SNOW $NVDA #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $OKB fell from 116.77 to 111.31; don't forget it is a deflationary token with a total locked supply of 21 million.
Background: In August 2025, OKX burned 65,256,700 OKB tokens in one go, fixing the total issuance at 21 million tokens, entering a Bitcoin-like scarcity model. This structural change happened a year ago, not a recent update, but the fact of the locked total supply remains unchanged and still serves as a long-term pricing foundation; the spike to 116.77 on 08/30 was more of a short-term fluctuation.
Current price is 111.31, down 2.92% in 24 hours. Today on the 1-hour chart, it opened at 111.53, peaked at 111.59, and closed at 111.31, with a volatility of 0.56%. This round fell from 116.77 to a bottom at 109.27. EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 are 111.32, 111.53, and 112.15 respectively, with the price stuck near the moving averages. The super trend line at 113.62 has turned into a resistance level.
In the sub-chart, the KDJ J value is still relatively high at 76.74; RSI three lines are 42.51, 39.67, and 43.60, all below 50 but not yet oversold. The MACD histogram has turned negative, DIF has fallen below DEA, indicating weak short-term momentum.
Do you think this wave will first fill the drop to 109, or can it first stand back above 112?
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH #Employment data is being released intensively, and Wash's policy stance is being tested
Just finished listening to Wash's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole; whether there will be a rate hike in September depends heavily on the employment data in the coming days as a hard indicator.
Is a rate hike more likely in September or will they hold steady?
I believe the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is higher. Although Wash has been insisting on firmly suppressing inflation and inflation data remains sticky, the US Department of Labor recently significantly revised down nonfarm payroll data by 79,000 through March this year. Coupled with the previously weaker-than-expected July employment, the certainty of a cooling labor market is quite high. Forcing a rate hike now carries too much risk; the Federal Reserve will most likely pause first to observe.
The data I am most focused on is definitely the nonfarm payrolls, especially the unemployment rate and wage growth. Indicators like JOLTS and ADP are more forward-looking previews, but nonfarm payrolls are the core decision-making factor for the Fed. If the August nonfarm unemployment rate continues to stabilize or slightly rise, and wage growth slows, inflation pressure will naturally ease from the supply side.
Personally, I would choose to temporarily consolidate, reduce leverage, and maintain high cash flow. During such a period of heavy data releases, the market often experiences intense two-way shakeouts. Blindly betting on a September rate cut or hike is very risky.
Looking ahead
$BTC is very likely to experience intense fluctuations within a range in the short term. If this week's data proves employment is indeed cooling faster and rate hike expectations are completely crushed, macro funds may see a wave of risk aversion combined with accumulation. But if the data unexpectedly strengthens, providing Wash with an excuse to tighten further, the crypto market will inevitably face another round of liquidity tightening and decline in the short term After Jackson Hole, I think the labor market has suddenly become much more important.
Warsh described employment conditions as broadly consistent with full employment, pointing to the 4.1% unemployment rate and relatively low jobless claims. That gives the Fed more room to stay focused on inflation for now.
But this week’s jobs data could test that view.
Economists are looking for roughly 50K–55K new payrolls in August, with unemployment expected to remain around 4.1%. After July’s weak payroll number, another disappointing report could make the Fed’s tougher stance harder to maintain.
Personally, I think the unemployment rate matters more than the headline payroll number this time. Job creation can look weak simply because labor-force growth is slowing. But if unemployment starts climbing together with weaker hiring, that would tell a much more concerning story.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh $BTC | Hormuz Shipping Risk Escalation
Fact: Iran reports that a supertanker caught fire and stopped after hitting two mines in the Strait of Hormuz; details are still pending independent verification.
Market Reaction: Brent crude broke above $90 again, stock markets are under pressure; gold has not shown significant strength, still suppressed by Fed hawkish expectations and high yields.
Impact Chain:
Hormuz risk ↑ → Crude oil ↑ → Inflation expectations ↑ → US Treasury yield pressure ↑ → US stocks/BTC under pressure; gold is tugged between "safe-haven support" and "high interest rate headwinds."
My Judgment: The real focus is not on a single tanker, but whether commercial vessels begin to reduce passage through Hormuz. If shipping volume continues to decline, energy inflation could once again become the core trade in global markets. Last night’s incident between the US and Iran directly knocked down BTC and ETC.
Woke up in the middle of the night and checked my phone, BTC dropped from 78k to 77k, and ETC fell nearly 3%. My first reaction: what happened again? Then I saw the news—the US military bombed Iran’s Larak Island, and Iran retaliated with missile strikes.
Honestly, geopolitical conflicts themselves aren’t necessarily a big negative for crypto; there used to be talk about it being a “safe haven.” But this time it’s really different.
Oil prices surged, Brent crude hit 90 again. Then look at this—the probability of a Fed rate hike in September suddenly jumped to nearly 57%. What the market fears now isn’t the war itself, but that the war will push oil prices up, which will drive inflation higher, forcing the Fed to continue raising rates. The dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields rise, and risk assets like Bitcoin have no choice but to take a hit first.
Interestingly, before last night’s drop, rate hike expectations were already climbing. This military conflict just poured fuel on an already tense macro sentiment, a double whammy.
Now it’s a question of whether the 78k level can hold. If it breaks, technical traders will likely follow suit and sell off. If the situation eases, maybe it can recover. But honestly, who can say for sure? As long as there’s any stir near the Strait of Hormuz, if oil prices rise, crypto will tremble again.
Anyway, my position isn’t heavy, so I’m just watching the show. In times like this, it’s better not to act rashly.
The above is just my personal opinion.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 #美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警
$BTC $ETH BTC is hovering near $77.5K, down ~1.6% in 24H. The hawkish Fed shock should’ve been priced in by now—so why is BTC moving sideways instead of breaking down? Three paths I’m watching: 1️⃣ Jobs <100K → hike bets fade → USD & yields fall → BTC rebounds 📈 2️⃣ Jobs stay strong → hike odds rise → USD & yields climb → BTC breaks lower 📉 3️⃣ Mixed data → chop continues until the Fed makes the next move. The key: Friday’s jobs report. 👀 #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResuEarnings week is here again, starring Dell and Broadcom. My focus is no longer on the four words "AI concept"; who is still telling stories and who has already received money becomes clear once you flip through the earnings report.
I bet on hardware to realize returns faster. Companies like Broadcom, which sell custom chips and switches, have revenue that is solidly accounted for, and Dell's server orders and backlog also reveal clues. Software, on the other hand, is slower; most AI software is still in trial and money-burning stages, and the earnings reports still say it's a transition period.
If I were to invest in the AI industry chain, I would choose hardware over software—not because software has no future, but because profit realization lags by one or two years. My holding logic is simple: let the profit statement speak. No matter how loud the story is told, negative numbers on the report are all illusions.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC The Japanese Ministry of Finance announced data showing that from July 30 to August 26, Japan invested a total of 15.4 trillion yen (approximately 96.5 billion USD) in foreign exchange intervention, setting a new record for monthly intervention. The goal was to buy yen and curb its rapid depreciation.
However, even after spending nearly 100 billion USD, the yen continued to weaken under pressure.
The fundamental reason lies in Japan's struggle against the market interest rate differential and capital flow trends. Japanese interest rates remain significantly lower than those in the US, and with Fed officials releasing hawkish statements, the market has readjusted its expectations for a rate hike in September. The US dollar continues to strengthen, with USD/JPY breaking through the 160 level again. After the intervention, the yen briefly rebounded to around 159, then fell back again.
Simply put, foreign exchange intervention can only buy short-term buffer time and it is difficult to reverse the medium- to long-term depreciation trend of the yen by intervention alone.
It is worth noting that this time Japan did not act alone; at the end of July, the US and Japan implemented a rare joint intervention to prevent a collapse-style drop in the yen. Previously, the highest single-day intervention scale once reached 9.6 trillion yen.
But US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on August 30 that the current yen situation is generally controllable, and there is no need to initiate a new round of US-Japan joint intervention for the time being. $BTC $ETH $SOL #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 After Nvidia's earnings report was released, the spotlight on AI hardware quickly shifted to Broadcom and Dell, with high positions beginning to await evidence of the next round of cash flow realization.
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue reached $10.8 billion last quarter, and Dell's backlog of AI server orders has also piled up to $51.3 billion, with the infrastructure-level book figures still substantial.
The focus of capital is shifting from mere order accumulation to the actual conversion speed of Broadcom's $16 billion AI revenue guidance and Dell's $60 billion revenue target for fiscal year 2027.
When the overall market risk appetite remains at an extremely high level, whether the delivery pace can keep up with the guidance directly determines whether the liquidity of tech stocks will continue to expand or tighten rapidly.
If Broadcom's custom chip demand continues to expand and Dell's orders are realized as current profits as scheduled, the valuation system of the hardware supply chain will be supported, and capital will continue to concentrate on core assets such as $NVDA.
If there is even a slight sign of slowdown in subsequent guidance, concentrated profit-taking could quickly suppress risk appetite and trigger a sector-wide position pullback.
Once the guidance from both companies confirms a demand slowdown, the logic of sustained high growth in the hardware chain will be falsified.
The most important variable to watch in the coming days is the specific delivery ratio of Dell's on-hand orders converted into actual revenue for the current quarter.
#Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块 #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估There is a detail in the current crypto market that is easily overlooked:
Whether $BTC rises or not is one thing, but whether funds have started to leave BTC is another.
Currently, BTC is still the core of the entire market, with its price fluctuating around $77,000. As long as BTC does not show a clear breakout, the market still has a foundation to continue upward.
But what really determines the next phase of profit-making might not be BTC itself, but BTC's market dominance.
If BTC continues to trade sideways while its market dominance starts to decline, and at the same time ETH/BTC stabilizes, with mainstream assets like SOL, BNB, LINK, SUI, AAVE beginning to increase in volume, this means funds are spreading from defensive assets to high Beta assets.
This is the signal I think is most worth paying attention to.
Because the altcoin season never starts suddenly on a single day.
It usually goes through:
BTC rising → BTC sideways → ETH strengthening → rotation among major altcoins → frenzy in small and mid-cap assets.
Right now, the market seems to be searching for direction between the second and third stages.
So don’t rush to ask "which altcoin is about to double soon."
First, observe whether funds have truly started to spread.
If BTC holds steady and ETH starts to run, only then do altcoins have the qualification to talk about a market rally.The hawks have returned again, and this week's table is completely different from last week's.
At this time last week, the market was still celebrating the triple benefits of Treasury buybacks, ETF accumulation, and short squeeze liquidations of 3.1 billion, with $BTC surging to 80,906. A week later, Powell turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike soared to 55.7%, Brent crude oil prices rose 5.4% in one day, and the stagflation combo directly knocked risk assets back to reality. BTC is now at 78,029, with a 24h range of 77,380-78,135, +0.43%. It looks stable, but actually both bulls and bears are hesitant to move.
My view: The nature of this correction has changed. Previously it was "taking a breather after a big rise," now there's a macro variable added. Under rate hike expectations, the holding cost of zero-yield assets rises, and the sustainability of ETF inflows is in doubt. 78,000 is the lifeline this week. This is the resonance point of the previous breakout platform plus the 20-day moving average. If it holds, the narrative of 80,000 remains; if it breaks, look down to 74,000-75,000.
Summary of thoughts: During macro headwinds, don't try to guess or catch the bottom; reduce positions by half and wait and see. If 78,000 breaks, then decide the direction. Good news can be late, but rate hikes won't be absent.Recently, BTC has been repeatedly tugging at high levels, with a very obvious market change: the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has significantly increased, with more frequent simultaneous rises and falls.
The underlying logic is that both share the same set of macro drivers: real interest rates and US dollar credit. Institutional funds regard BTC as digital gold, used to hedge against US Treasury and fiscal risks. When US Treasury yields decline, gold and BTC strengthen simultaneously; when yields rebound, both come under pressure, and the inflow and outflow rhythm of spot ETFs also begins to align.
However, it is important to distinguish their attribute differences: gold is a traditional safe-haven asset; BTC is a high-beta asset, and during risk events, Bitcoin’s pullback magnitude will be much greater than gold’s, so BTC cannot be fully treated as a safe-haven tool.
Currently, the market is fiercely contested between bulls and bears.
✅ Bullish: gold is holding support at high levels, ETF funds continue to flow in, and the fiat currency hedging narrative remains;
⚠️ Bearish: Jackson Hole keeps the possibility of rate hikes, high leverage is accumulating at high levels, and a rapid correction could occur at any time.
In practice, do not chase highs. In linked markets, focus on US Treasury yield data, wait for clear direction before acting, and avoid heavy positions betting on a single side prematurely.Where exactly does Justin Sun's money come from?
Let's break down the accounts: just a few calculations will make it clear!
First account: The $4.56788 million lunch was the cheapest advertisement in history
In 2019, Justin Sun spent $4,567,888 to secure a charity lunch with Buffett, setting a 20-year record. What's even more amazing is what happened afterward: he first stood Buffett up, citing kidney stones, making global headlines for two weeks for free; six months later, he made up for the meal, making headlines again for another two weeks. One meal, trending three times.
Second account: What he bets on is never the coin price, but human nature.
Because in a fool's market, the loudest voice is the one that prices assets. Hype equals demand, topics equal buy orders. He's not just marketing; he's making a market for his own assets, using public opinion to make a market, which is much cheaper than using capital. In a market where expectations determine price, those who create expectations always stand at the top of the food chain.
Third account: Issuing coins is like opening your own central bank
In 2017, Justin Sun issued TRON (TRX), raising about $70 million through ICO. What did TRON have at the time? A white paper. This is a business with near-zero cost and an unlimited ceiling.
Justin Sun is just the one who made this business the loudest and longest-lasting.
Fourth account: Enough of the intangible, let's do some real math; he really has a tollbooth business. It's called the TRON chain's USDT circulation.
The most tangible asset of TRON is often overlooked: it has become the world's largest highway for stablecoin (USDT). A single on-chain transfer costs less than $1 in fees and settles in 3 seconds; traditional bank cross-border wire transfers cost tens of dollars and take 3–5 business days. Nearly half of the world's USDT runs on this route. Whether building roads makes you rich is unknown, but tollbooths do collect money.
Fifth account: Fines are called booth fees on his books.
In March 2023, the U.S. SEC sued Justin Sun for alleged fraud, market manipulation (wash trading to inflate volume), and unregistered securities issuance. After a three-year battle, it ended in March 2026 with a $10 million settlement, borne by the affiliated company Rainberry, with no charges against him personally.BTC is currently around $78,200, with a 24% increase over the past 30 days. The trend is indeed strong, but two data points make me hesitant to chase the highs:
First, BTC reserves on Binance have risen to about 687,000 coins, reaching a yearly high. This data shouldn't be directly interpreted as "whales are about to dump," but it indicates more chips are in a state ready for quick trading.
Second, on August 28, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $202 million, ending the previous continuous inflows. The overall weekly funds are still net inflows, so I'm not bearish, just thinking institutional buying is starting to cool down.
More notably, when BTC recently tested $80,000, the spot active buying did not show a clear simultaneous increase. If the price is mainly driven by leverage and short covering, the sustainability after the breakout is questionable.
My plan is simple:
Hold above $80,000–$81,000 with increased spot buying: continue to be bullish.
Range between $77,000–$80,000: do not chase.
Break below $77,000 and ETF continues to weaken: defend $74,000–$75,000.
Right now, I have only one key question:
If BTC breaks through $80,000 but ETF inflows decline and spot buying remains weak, would you chase the breakout or treat it as a false breakout? Why?
#BTC #Bitcoin #比特币 #ETF #Cryptocurrency #MarketAnalysis$UNI This wave is truly worth watching, and it's not just about "burning".
Since August, the daily average value of UNI burned has exceeded $400,000. On August 21 alone, 150,000 tokens were burned, valued at about $590,000, setting a new record.
As of August 31, approximately 110 million UNI tokens have been burned, with a total value of about $630 million; the annualized burn volume reached 31 million tokens, valued at about $113 million, and it's still growing.
More importantly, there's Robinhood's stock tokens.
Some stock token trades by non-U.S. retail users are directly connected to the public AMM—Uniswap.
What does this mean?
Traditional stocks are moving onto the blockchain, and Uniswap may be becoming the liquidity and settlement infrastructure for TradeFi entering DeFi.
Other tokens rely on project teams buying back with their own funds, but UNI burns faster the more it is traded.
If stock tokens continue to expand, UNI might benefit not only from fees but also from the entire on-chain financial growth dividend.
This is why I believe $UNI is truly worth paying attention to.After Unitree went public on the STAR Market, the question "Will it become the next Apple or Tesla?" surged to the trending list. This question is big and emotional, because people are no longer satisfied with just watching robots run and jump; they are starting to ask: Can it truly become a product that changes life and industry? It affects not only the tech world. Manufacturing cares about whether robots can be reliably employed, developers care about platform functionality, ordinary families want to know if machines will help move things, do housework, and care for the elderly, and the market is pricing an industry that is still in its early stages. What needs to be clarified now are four things: display does not equal work, shipment does not equal large-scale deployment, starting price does not equal full usage cost, and ecosystem cooperation does not mean consumer-level applications are mature. Unitree is worth examining, but "the next Apple or Tesla" is still just a question. [Why does everyone always want to find a "predecessor" for new technologies】 Apple represents turning complex technology into products that the public wants to use every day; Tesla represents rewriting a mature industry through software, hardware, supply chain, and manufacturing methods. Putting Unitree together with them really asks: Are humanoid robots finally stepping out of the lab and booth? Unitree's official website lists humanoid robots like the H1 and G1, covering quadruped robots and related components. The G1 in the official store lists a starting price of $13,500. This number gives people the intuition that humanoid robots seem to have reached the stage of "buying." But being able to place an order is only the first step toward commercialization. Region, version, taxes, and configurationBTC has been hit by a double negative impact these past two days, breaking the original bullish structure and returning to a neutral consolidation.
On the macro side, the most critical statement from Walsh: If inflation does not accelerate its decline, the Federal Reserve still has room to raise interest rates.
This directly overturns the market's previous expectations of rate cuts or even easing, with a 60% probability of a rate hike in September, which is the main factor causing Bitcoin's weakness. 进入2027年四季度后半段，横跨十个月的高位箱体震荡来到最后的年终博弈窗口。比特币在7.1‑7.42万美元区间反复拉锯，以太坊运行于2190‑2310美元。年终机构调仓、年末流动性收紧、通胀数据的最终验证交织在一起，市场的分歧开始加大。一部分资金博弈年末的反弹行情，另一部分资金则警惕久盘之后向下破位的风险。BTC相对抗跌、ETH持续偏弱的格局没有改变，ETH/BTC比价依旧压制在低位，市场已经不再寄希望于单纯的叙事催化，行情破局必须依靠宏观流动性、资金流向、基本面三者形成共振。 资金层面，比特币现货ETF整体流入动能进一步走弱，年末赎回现象愈发频繁。机构整体防御性优先，逢支撑小幅定投，遇阻力就止盈减仓，几乎没有主动大举加仓的行为。价格回落至7.1‑7.2万美元区间，现货买盘会进场承接；反弹触及7.4万美元附近，就会遭遇明显获利抛压。链上数据依旧维持韧性，交易所比特币库存依旧处于历史低位，巨鲸持续向冷钱包转移筹码，长期持有者没有出现大规模出逃，7.1万美元成为全年最重要的防守关口。但全市场成交量持续低迷，存量博弈已经走到极致，仅靠场内筹码换手，很难突破上方阻力，想要打开上行空间，Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to be cautious of risks. The biggest challenge in the current crypto market is not a lack of information, but information overload. Every moment is flooded with ETF subscription and redemption data, on-chain indicators, project narratives, rumors, and institutional opinions, with all kinds of fragmented information constantly challenging traders' judgments. A lot of noise is mixed among effective signals; many people are swept up by massive information, frequently changing their judgments and making emotional actions amid repeated waverings. The market signals for BTC and ETH are inherently misleading; learning to filter information and build your own decision-making framework is far more important than gathering more data. Bitcoin's public data is relatively clean but also full of noise. Large daily ETF subscriptions and redemptions are often magnified and interpreted by the market. Single-day capital fluctuations often come from market maker rebalancing and short-term arbitrage, which do not represent institutions' long-term allocation attitude. Only cumulative flows over several consecutive weeks have reference value. Large on-chain transfers mostly involve internal transfers between hot and cold wallets; tokens not entering the secondary market do not represent large players' buying or selling behavior. Long-term holders' holding data can be used to observe the stability of their chips, but static holding data cannot predict the selling pressure of trapped positions above and short-term profit-taking. Many traders tend to treat a single data point as a market switch; they are bullish when seeing a positive data and turning pessimistic after a single redemption. Bitcoin has no endogenous cash flow; the core price driver is macro liquidity and institutional allocation willingness, while on-chain data can onlyBitcoin Is Facing 3 Problems At The Same Time.
$BTC is entering September with a very different market environment.
Bitcoin is still holding around the $78K area after recovering from the recent drop toward $77K.
But three major forces are now working against the bulls:
Oil is above $90.
Rate-hike expectations are rising.
Geopolitical tensions are increasing.
And Bitcoin now has to prove that it can absorb all three.
🟠 PROBLEM #1: OIL IS BACK ABOVE $90
Brent crude moved above $90 after the latest escalation between the U.S. and Iran.
That matters for Bitcoin.
Not because Bitcoin is directly tied to oil.
It matters because higher oil prices can create additional inflation pressure.
Higher inflation can make central banks more cautious about cutting rates.
And if markets start pricing tighter monetary policy, liquidity conditions become less supportive for risk assets.
That chain reaction is important for $BTC.
Oil rises.
Inflation expectations rise.
Rate expectations rise.
Yields rise.
Risk appetite weakens.
Bitcoin feels the pressure.
Reuters reported that Brent crude climbed to around $90.51 while Treasury yields also moved higher.
🏦 PROBLEM #2: THE FED IS BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT
The latest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh already pushed rate-hike expectations higher.
Markets are now pricing roughly a 57% probability of a September rate hike.
That is a major shift from the softer monetary-policy expectations that helped support risk assets earlier.
And this is where the next few economic releases become critical.
The U.S. jobs report is coming later this week.
If the labor market remains strong, the Fed has less reason to ease.
If inflation remains elevated because energy prices stay high, the Fed has even more reason to remain restrictive.
For $BTC, that creates a difficult combination.
Strong employment plus high oil prices could keep financial conditions tight.
But weak employment could change the rate narrative quickly.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults The major announcements for this week have not yet been released
They serve as directional indicators
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
JOLTS, ADP, initial claims
And then Friday's nonfarm unemployment rate
Data will come one after another
It’s expected to be very lively this week
Even for mainstream coins $BTC $ETH
It is recommended to keep leverage low
Wash has already put inflation on the table
As long as employment does not weaken
The hawkish camp still has reasons
But if nonfarm jobs data disappoints again
The recent rate hike expectations will likely be significantly pulled back
So $BTC hesitating now
Hovering between 80000-77000 is understandable
Waiting for a signal to point the way
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 🚨 $SPCX could be in for a rough open tonight.
Right now, it’s hovering just above $140 in pre-market, and if $139 breaks, things could get ugly fast.
Here’s the problem: what’s the actual bullish catalyst?
A Falcon launch carrying a space telescope on the 30th? That’s not exactly a game-changing development for SpaceX. Rocket launches are what this company does—successful missions are becoming routine, not some unexpected breakthrough.
#DailyOrbit 持续的缩量横盘，让市场褪去了短期情绪炒作，也让大家更清晰看见两条公链的共识优势与现实约束。 比特币的核心共识，是作为数字稀缺资产的配置属性。机构ETF作为重要的资金入口，资金的进出直接反映全球资本对风险资产的态度。虽然短期资金摇摆不定，但大量长期筹码依旧沉淀在囤币地址当中，没有出现大规模出逃，这是市场最重要的安全垫。但也要正视现实，比特币生态创新集中在二层，全部属于慢节奏的建设，很难快速转化为行情催化剂。一旦宏观预期出现反复，盘面就会随之波动，外部环境的影响力远大于内部生态。 以太坊的核心共识，在于通用计算基础设施的定位。质押锁仓持续消耗流通供给，二层网络持续打磨性能与成本，账户抽象也在持续推进，这些基建层面的进展，都是在为未来的生态扩张铺路。但现实困境依旧没有解决，行业依旧在存量用户之间轮转，缺少可以吸引外部普通用户的现象级应用。技术的价值是循序渐进的，不会立刻反映在价格上，这也就决定了ETH很难脱离大盘走出独立行情。 现阶段，整个行业处在一个矛盾的状态：大家对未来抱有期待，但当下缺少可以落地的强催化。降息的时间点不断被市场重新定价，海外监管存在不确定性，公链各类技术方案还处在打磨阶$BTC $ETH $SOL I've been muttering "Don't get carried away before the 80K wall" these past two days, and this morning I finally don't have to be stubborn — BTC plunged to around 76.9K in one move, ETH directly smashed through 2500 to 2410, SOL broke 105, longs blew up $270 million in 24h, and the group chat's "always rising" dream was half shattered on the spot.
What triggered this? The hawkish stance from Washington pushed the September rate hike probability from 35% up to 57%, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $202 million on 8/28 breaking a 9-day inflow streak, and over the weekend the US and Iran poked each other again in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices above 90+. Leveraged longs auto-stopped out in a chain reaction. This isn't a crash, but a collective profit-taking and sell-off after the 23% rally in August combined with an overbought RSI of 82.
But don't read this pullback as a trend reversal. The 76.8K previous low held, the 77K whale cost zone absorbed buys, and ETH longs were passively closed, not smashed by institutions. In the short term, if 76.8–77K doesn't break, expect shallow consolidation; if it breaks, look for 75K. For shorts in profit, don't be greedy at the tip; reduce positions near the upper edge at 78.3K first; for those who missed out, wait for a pullback to 77K with lower volume before moving.
The spike after sideways trading was a hook yesterday, and a hook down this morning — fishing on both ends, don't be the one biting the bait.
#BTC high-level consolidation, stronger correlation with gold #Earnings Watch: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns under scrutiny #Intensive employment data releases, Washington's policy stance tested Who is selling Unitree? High-level chip handovers are on a large scale, with 228.7 million shares expected to unlock next year
Unitree Technology's stock price fluctuated sharply after listing, surging more than sixfold on the first day before nearly halving, with market value evaporating by over 200 billion yuan. The turnover rate on the first day reached 85.28%, with IPO shares concentrated in cash-out. Next year, 228.7 million shares will be unlocked, accounting for 56.56% of total shares, with pre-IPO shareholders like Meituan and Sequoia China facing exit potential. Currently, the price-to-earnings ratio is about 426 times, and there is significant disagreement in the valuation system in the market.
On August 31, Unitree Technology's stock performance after listing attracted market attention. On its first day of listing, August 19, the stock price surged more than sixfold, with a total market value surpassing 440 billion yuan, then fell nearly in half consecutively, with market value evaporating by over 200 billion yuan. On the first day, trading volume reached 23.2 billion yuan, with a volume of 25.66 million shares, and a tradable stock turnover rate as high as 85.28%, setting a new record for the first day turnover rate of a new STAR Market stock since 2026.
In the initial listing phase, only 30.0877 million tradable shares were available, accounting for about 7.44% of total share capital after issuance. Of these, offline institutions held 20.3807 million shares, about 68% of circulating shares, while the top 20 institutions held 45% of all circulating shares. Since about 90% of the shares placed offline were circulated on the first day of listing, a large amount of low-cost IPO tokens were concentrated and cashed out, becoming the main source of high turnover in the early stages. In terms of capital structure, the first-day selling volumes by institutions, large investors, intermediaries, and retail investors were 1.69 million, 10.78 million, 12.96 million, and 230,000 shares respectively, with large and intermediate investors composing the totalBTC has returned to 79,000, but why is breaking through 80,000 becoming increasingly difficult? The answer is not in the candlestick chart.
After the Jackson Hole speech by Waller, the market has upgraded the September rate hike from a "tail risk" to a baseline game: the probability of a rate hike has risen from about 35% to 57%–60%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield remains around 4.33%.
This means BTC is now facing not ordinary technical pressure, but valuation suppression caused by higher funding costs.
However, the September rate hike is far from locked in. Institutions like ABN AMRO and Brandywine still question whether the Fed will truly act. This week's employment data and September CPI are the final judges.
The key levels to watch on the chart are three layers:
**79,500–80,000:** first resistance;
**81,300:** only after firmly standing above this can bulls regain the initiative;
**If 78,000 is lost:** look down to 77,000, and in extreme cases pay attention to 75,000.
Therefore, the biggest trading opportunity currently is not to prematurely bet on hawkish or dovish, but to wait for the "expectation gap."
Waller is responsible for putting the rate hike on the table; data will decide whether this card is ultimately played. Whether BTC can truly break through 80,000 also depends on when this interest rate repricing ends. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 NVIDIA $NVDA just finished reporting, this week it's Broadcom and Dell's turn. I think these two earnings reports are actually more interesting than simply looking at whether revenue beats expectations, because they can verify from two directions whether the money for AI is still being poured in.
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue last quarter reached $10.8 billion, a year-over-year increase of 143%, and this time the company gave an AI revenue guidance of $16 billion.
Dell is more straightforward; it sells AI servers. Now, AI server backlog orders have reached $51.3 billion, with a FY2027 AI server revenue target of about $60 billion.
So this time, I'm less concerned about whether they can "Beat" and more interested in two things: whether Broadcom's custom AI chips and network demand can continue to rise, and whether Dell's large orders can truly convert into revenue and profit.
In the past, just telling everyone "AI demand is strong" was enough to boost stock prices; now, with expectations for companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Dell already very high, the market is starting to ask—after pouring in so much money, when will we see bigger returns?
If these two earnings reports can continue to exceed expectations, I think the AI infrastructure sector doesn't need to worry too much for now. Conversely, even if performance is good but guidance starts to slow down, the market may become much more sensitive than before. This move makes people's eyelids twitch.
In the early morning while everyone was asleep, quietly added over 5,000 $ETH at an average price of 2449, putting in over 12 million USD in one go. Now this big player holds a long position of 30,000 ETH, with an unrealized profit of 8.5 million USD, solidly sitting in third place on the ETH long leaderboard.
But what concerns me most is not how much he has earned, but the reduce-only limit sell order hanging at 4000 USD. Note, this is not a short-term take-profit order—given the position's unrealized profit of 8.5 million and a liquidation price of 1749 USD, placing a sell order with a 60% premium clearly shows he’s not just looking to make a quick buck and run.
Looking back at his position timeline: the first batch on August 19 at an average price of 2028; added more in the early morning at an average price of 2449. Increasing the position as the price rises, and the average add-on price is higher than the initial average—this is a very aggressive chasing strategy in futures. Coupled with the recent frequent appearances of Bit-related addresses and 40x leverage addresses that have been dormant for 4 months now reactivated, all opening longs in the 2000-2500 range.
This is not retail sentiment; it’s a targeted bet with a clear price goal, with 4000 as their psychological anchor.
The question is whether this batch of high-leverage longs will push ETH to new highs or become the biggest source of selling pressure in the future? After all, the liquidation prices are concentrated around 1749, and once the market turns, the cascading liquidations could cause a very severe stampede.BTC drops below 80,000 again: what’s really being crushed is not just the bulls, but the market’s “rate cut fantasy”
BTC has fallen back to around 77,000 USD, with ETH simultaneously losing 2400. On the surface, it looks like a technical breakdown, but the real pressure comes from a macroeconomic expectation reset.
At Jackson Hole, Walsh clearly emphasized: inflation remains too high, the 2% target will not be compromised; if inflation does not fall quickly enough, the Fed still has room for further action. After the speech, the market’s pricing for a September rate hike quickly rose from about 35% to over 55%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield briefly climbed to around 4.36%.
The transmission logic is clear:
Rising rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields rise → USD strengthens → risk asset discount rates increase → high-leverage positions are forced to deleverage.
So this time it can’t be simply understood as “a rebound after too much of a drop.”
In the short term, BTC first looks to hold at 77,000; if it fails, 74,000–75,000 will come back into view; only a renewed volume-driven recovery above 80,000 would indicate that the hawkish shock is truly being absorbed by capital.
What this market cycle needs to repair is not just the candlestick chart, but the entire interest rate expectation. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Just recently, the market was still betting on a rate cut in September, but now it has seriously started discussing "whether there will be a rate hike in September." As of August 31, the market pricing for a September rate hike has risen to about 57%–60%, compared to only about 35% before. More importantly, Barclays has even revised its forecast for the rest of the year to include two 25 basis point hikes in September and December.
The trigger behind this is not just Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, but a very real issue: inflation is not falling fast enough.
The latest data shows that the U.S. July PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June; core PCE rose 3.3% year-over-year. There is still a significant gap from the Fed's 2% target.
So now the Fed faces a somewhat awkward situation: employment has started to cool down, but inflation has not fully come down.
July nonfarm payrolls actually decreased by 23,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and an average monthly increase of only 34,000 jobs over the past 12 months. This number is clearly weaker compared to previous increases of hundreds of thousands or even tens of thousands.
ADP also did not give a particularly strong signal, with only 44,000 private sector jobs added in July.
But the problem lies here.
If employment is already this weak, why does the Fed still dare to consider raising rates?
Because the current employment data looks more like a "gradual cooling," not a "sudden stall." The unemployment rate is still only 4.1%, while inflation remains clearly above the 2% target. In other words, the Fed does not see a reason to immediately rescue the economy but sees the risk of inflation picking up again.
Moreover, the latest external environment adds fuel to the fire.
On August 31, Brent crude oil has risen back to around $90, and the escalation of the Iran situation further increases energy price risks. If oil prices remain high, it will be even harder for U.S. inflation to decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.71%, and the 2-year yield has also risen to about 4.33%.
So now I actually think the most important thing ahead is not guessing whether the Fed will raise rates, but seeing if employment data can push back this "rate hike expectation."
On September 1, watch the JOLTS job openings; on September 2, watch ADP; and the real big event is on September 4—the August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate.
The market currently expects August nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 50,000 to 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.1%.
If the actual data is significantly below expectations, such as employment showing negative growth again and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% or even higher, then the nearly 60% probability of a rate hike will likely fall quickly.
But if nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations again and wage growth does not cool significantly, then it will be a completely different story.
At that time, a September rate hike will no longer be just "talk," but a real policy option on the table.
This is also what I am most focused on now.
BTC has recently fallen from near $81,300 on August 28 to about $77,700 on August 31, and gold also declined today, indicating that after rate hike expectations have warmed again, high-volatility assets have started to feel the pressure.
So next, don't immediately think "rate cuts are coming" just because of a poor employment report, nor should you short immediately just because of a good report.
What truly determines the direction in September is whether employment, wages, inflation, and oil prices can simultaneously give the Fed an answer.
Personally, I now lean toward: short-term risks have not been fully released, especially before the nonfarm payroll release, BTC, gold, and U.S. stocks are prone to significant expectation gap moves.
This time, what’s really worth watching is not the Fed’s next words, but the employment report on September 4.
Because the market has already priced in "rate hikes" in advance.
If employment data does not cooperate, this expectation could be sharply pushed back; if employment remains resilient, then the September trend might really change.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The trading volume of Tokenize Stock has increased by 415% in the past 30 days, more than quintupling to 29.5 billion USD, indicating that the market capitalization of this sector is rapidly growing and more people are entering the market. The main driver is likely the official launch of US stock tokenized trading on the Base chain on August 24. I believe the biggest beneficiaries of this wave of development are stablecoins.
Consider this: traditional investors buying Tokenize Stock through DeFi with 24/7 trading, after making profits, will they convert it back into traditional cash within the banking system? Of course not; most likely, profits will be realized in stablecoins. This is why I am so optimistic about the future development of $CRCL and $USDC: in the future, all assets will be tokenized, and stablecoins will represent a market exceeding tens of trillions.