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随着9月拉开序幕，美国劳动力数据可能为加密货币市场定下基调，周五的就业报告将成为本周的主要事件。7月非农就业人数减少2.3万，而5月和6月的数据合计下修10.3万——这大幅提高了对8月读数（市场预期为5.8万）的关注度 ADP私人就业人数和JOLTS职位空缺为就业情况提供了较早的观察。若数据走弱，可能会降低对加息的预期，并打压美国国债收益率和美元。反之，若出现反弹，影响则将朝另一方向发展 工资单（就业）数据落在一个拒绝事先承诺的美联储之上 周五的数据权重高于典型的工资单发布，因为凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）所说的话。 沃什拒绝承诺任何事情——“我今天站在这里所致力的是一项纪律，而不是一项决定”——并将前瞻指引视为常规做法予以否定，认为这在“真正危机之外已经超出欢迎的时限”。StoneX的法瓦德·拉扎克扎达（Fawad Razaqzada）直接解读其后果：在新主席之下，美联储变得更加依赖数据。一家不会发出路径信号的委员会，其9月16日的决策将取决于会间的数据。 讲话期间，市场对更鹰派的定价迅速上修：根据CME美联储观察（FedWatch），Bitcoin faces the most critical test of the month after a surge: climbing from 62,000 to above 80,000, it suddenly encountered selling pressure, with the price clearly resisted around 81,000 and then falling back to near 77,000. On the surface, this looks like another high-level correction, but what truly deserves attention is not the decline itself, but the market's directional choice after losing momentum.🟠
The 80,000 mark is not only a psychological price level but also the real resistance point in this rally. After the price fell below it, short-term momentum quickly weakened. Currently, 77,000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears—if it can hold and rebound back to the 78,000 to 80,000 range, this can still be seen as a normal consolidation after a sharp rise; if it fails, the structure will shift toward a deeper demand zone between 72,000 and 74,000. Compared to news, the gain or loss of support levels is more worth watching.
This wave of decline is not solely due to pressure in the crypto market. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials at Jackson Hole have changed the macro environment, implying that if inflation does not clearly fall to the 2% target, interest rates may still rise. U.S. Treasury yields have risen, the dollar has strengthened, and the probability of a rate hike has jumped from about 35% to over 55%, putting pressure on risk assets generally, and Bitcoin is no exception.
The upcoming trend is essentially a test of whether Bitcoin can maintain resilience in an environment of weakening liquidity expectations.📊
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above is only an objective review and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously. $BTC$TRUMP — Is the Momentum Over?
I’m holding a $TRUMP short from around $2.60, position size ~$6,200, currently +$408.
Open Interest is declining after the recent surge, while funding sits at -0.0104%. Shorts are crowded, so a squeeze remains the biggest risk here. Momentum is also starting to weaken after the explosive move higher.
As long as $TRUMP stays below $2.60–$2.70, I expect the correction to continue. First target: $2.20–$2.25. If that zone breaks, I’m watching $2.00 next.Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to be aware of risks. The vast majority of losses in the market do not come from the market itself, but from traders' own cognitive biases. People instinctively interpret the market based on their own subjective expectations, selectively accepting signals that align with their own ideas, and filtering out conflicting realities. The logic behind BTC and ETH market trends is complex and easily amplifies such psychological misconceptions. Often, it's not that the market is misreading, but that our cognitive filters distort objective facts. Recognizing common cognitive biases is essential for improving the quality of trading decisions. The most common bias in Bitcoin is overly optimistic linear extrapolation. When ETFs continue to see net inflows and long-term holders hold solid chips, the market naturally deduces: since the foundation is solid, the market will keep rising. But in reality, stable chips can only limit downside space, not open up upward potential. Macro liquidity, trapped positions above, and institutional periodic profit-taking will all become constraints for upward movement. Many traders directly equate "large-scale cycle logic holds" with "short-term inevitable rises," ignoring the possibility of prolonged fluctuations in between. Seeing positive on-chain indicators, they assume a breakout is imminent, ignoring that macro conditions are not yet fully in place. Bitcoin has no cash flow; valuation is determined by external conditions. If the underlying logic is correct, it can still experience quarterly sideways movements. At the same time, there is another bias: short-term redemptions or pullbacks completely reject medium- to long-term allocation logic and treat temporary fluctuations as trend reversals. True maturityThe market has been trading sideways with shrinking volume for a long time, trading volume remains sluggish, and both bulls and bears have temporarily reached a balance, lacking enough strength to push prices out of a major rally. In this environment, the gap between market expectations and actual fundamentals is becoming increasingly apparent. On Bitcoin's side, institutional allocation narratives still hold true, but capital behavior has changed. Spot ETFs no longer see sustained large net inflows; funds fluctuate with macro data, and institutions focus more on economic fundamentals rather than blindly entering through narratives. Long-term on-chain coin accumulation remains stable, with many assets dormant, providing bottom support for prices. However, various innovations in the second-layer ecosystem are still in the iteration and improvement stage, with long implementation cycles, making it difficult to become market hotspots in the short term. Bitcoin's price remains highly dependent on external liquidity conditions, and changes in macro expectations directly influence market fluctuations. Ethereum's on-chain fundamentals have not deteriorated, staking and lock sizes remain high, deflationary mechanisms continue to operate, and layer-2 network infrastructure continues to iterate and optimize. However, the real problems of the ecosystem remain unresolved; the industry still relies mainly on stock competition, making it difficult to attract large numbers of external new users. The dividends brought by technological upgrades are long-term and cannot be quickly realized as market rallies. Even with continuous improvement of underlying infrastructure, ETH's trend remains difficult to break away from the overall market environment, and conditions for independent rallies are not yet in place. The biggest problem in the current market is the lack of a core catalyst to break the deadlock. The market keeps repricing the timing of rate cuts, overseas regulatory policies are uncertain, and on-chainWhales are starting to increase their long positions in ETH and SOL.
The market might interpret these positions as "big money betting early on altcoin catch-up rallies," but my judgment differs: whale positions only tell me that someone is willing to take on risk; they do not confirm the direction.
Today, Hyperliquid's third largest ETH long added about 5,089 ETH, with an average entry price around $2,449. The total long position is now about 30,300 ETH, still showing significant unrealized gains overall. On the other side, an address has been building a long position of about 282,700 SOL since the weekend, with an average cost of approximately $104.79, a nominal size close to $30 million.
Note, both of these are verifiable long positions, not ordinary transfers misinterpreted as "whales going long."
But why am I not following?
Because the macro environment is exerting pressure in the opposite direction. BTC is still capped at $80,000, US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices above $90, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike again in September have intensified.
So what I’m watching now is whether the price proves the whales right.
If ETH can hold near 2,440 and continue upward, I remain bullish; if SOL can firmly reclaim 105–107, then I acknowledge this large position gaining the upper hand.
Conversely, if whales keep adding but ETH and SOL fail to break key levels, I will be more cautious—because that means big money is accumulating, but selling pressure is still absorbing their chips.
Whales can withstand 20% volatility; we don’t necessarily have to go along with them #Solana Inflation Reduction Proposal Passed the Vote
The leader has something to say
The SOL inflation reduction proposal just passed with 67% support, 176.29M votes in favor, just crossing the two-thirds threshold. Over six years, 18.9 million fewer SOL will be issued.
The voting process was intense; Kraken, the largest validator, switched to support at the last moment, Galaxy Digital abstained then voted in favor, and the Helius CEO made 500 calls to rally votes. Community participation was high, with 1,326 validators voting and a turnout rate of 60.7%. $BTC $ETH $SOL
In the long term, supply tightens, and staking yields will drop from 5.25% to around 2.25%. Whether transaction fees can cover the shortfall is the key point to watch next. Don't chase the short-term high; SOL has risen from 103 to 116, already fulfilling most of the expected gains. Buy again on a pullback to the 103-105 range, with a stop loss at 98.
The proposal implementation requires 4.5 months of technical development, so inflation won't decrease immediately. The positive narrative is already priced in; the real supply change will come next year. Take what you should take, wait if you should wait.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop loss. Good luck.So, what’s next?
$77,000 is the most critical short-term level. If it holds, there’s a chance to test $80,000 again; if it doesn’t, we could see $75,000 or even $72,000–$73,000. In a more pessimistic scenario, Citibank’s bearish target price is $53,000.
That said, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped from last week’s 81 "Extreme Greed" to now between 61 and 75, indicating cooling market sentiment. "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"—this phrase is overused, but few really dare to act on it when it comes true.
This recent drop is essentially a triple resonance of tightening macro interest rate expectations + geopolitical risk premium + a short-term liquidity vacuum. The long-term fundamentals haven’t changed, but the short-term pain is real.
Are you choosing to cut losses and exit, or to buy the dip in batches during the panic? Share your thoughts in the comments. Follow me, and after we get through this period, we’ll meet at the top.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Employment data is coming, and rate hike expectations have already tightened 👊
This week, JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and non-farm payrolls will be released one after another. The labor market will be the ultimate judge for the September rate hike. July's non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June were cumulatively revised down by 103,000 — hiring demand is indeed cooling, which was originally a reason to support pausing rate hikes.
But Waller burned those expectations down at Jackson Hole. Inflation is above 2%, financial conditions are not yet restrictive — after hearing this, the market immediately pushed the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to nearly 60%. U.S. Treasury yields rose, and both gold and BTC were suppressed.
This week's data will be crucial: if employment continues to cool, Waller's hawkish stance will loosen; if employment strengthens instead, the market will have to reprice the interest rate path.
$BTC finally surged above 80,000, whether it can hold this week depends entirely on the data.
What do you think? 🙈#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 New data has emerged recently on the supply side of $BTC‼️‼️
BTC that hasn't moved for over 10 years has reached 3.56 million coins, accounting for 17.7% of the circulating supply, hitting a historic high! In the past 30 days, another 14,000 BTC have joined the "sleeping" ranks.
This data means that 1 out of every 6 BTC hasn't moved for over 10 years.
Long-term holders are not selling either; addresses holding for more than 155 days control 16.35 million BTC, accounting for 83% of the total circulating supply, with an increase of about 1.38 million in the past 90 days. CZ also mentioned a few days ago that an estimated 10%-20% of BTC may be permanently lost.
The supply side is indeed tightening. With fewer BTC available for circulation, any new demand will have a greater impact on the price, but where is the demand⁉️
Scarcity can only truly translate into upward momentum when demand picks up. The 21 million cap on Bitcoin is fixed, but the actual tradable chips may be much fewer than imagined. This story has been told for over a decade; what the market needs is buying pressure, not stories.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 Hello everyone, good evening market update 🐮🐮
My personal judgment is that BTC will continue to move upward, with the first target at 79500, then looking to break through 81500, after which a pullback is expected.
On Friday, the speech by Walsh landed, the market interpreted it as hawkish, raising rate hike expectations, BTC dipped to 76800. Over the weekend, market liquidity was sluggish, and the whales took the opportunity to push the price up to 79300, essentially to collect contract liquidity, then closed by smashing back near 76900, a rise in vain.
From this wave of market action, the probability of a bullish trend is actually higher. I have already entered a long position, with two points above prepared for taking profit.
Gold is also bullish, with long positions arranged at 4440.
I always believe Walsh's speech is essentially neutral to dovish, but the market over-interpreted it as hawkish.
The US is now in a dilemma: no rate hike means inflation is hard to suppress; rate hikes mean US debt and fiscal pressure will be unbearable.
Moreover, except for China, the whole world is raising rates, and cross-border arbitrage space is narrowing.
By the way, about AI: the story can be told, but if large continuous investments do not produce actual effective output, even the best narrative will collapse. Trust and capital investment will continuously decay over time.
⚠️This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC C $XAU On August 27, Charles Schwab announced that it will add these three assets to Schwab Crypto in the coming months. Previously, the platform only offered spot trading for BTC and ETH. This signifies Wall Street's recognition of mainstream crypto assets expanding from BTC and ETH to a few leading altcoins. SOL, AVAX, and LINK have earned their ticket into traditional investment accounts. The door is open, but whether funds will flow in depends on the market. Charles Schwab is not an ordinary brokerage. Founded in 1971, Charles Schwab seized the opportunity when the U.S. abolished fixed commission rates in 1975, significantly lowering stock trading costs and becoming a representative of discount brokers in the U.S. In 2019, Schwab was the first to reduce online trading commissions for U.S. stocks and ETFs to zero. In 2020, it completed the acquisition of TD Ameritrade, bringing the thinkorswim trading platform under its umbrella. Schwab's position in the U.S. financial market is close to a combination of brokerage, banking, asset management platform, and advisory infrastructure. As of the end of July 2026, Schwab had 39.9 million active securities accounts, client assets totaling $13.04 trillion, and served over 16,000 independent advisory firms. By client assets, it is the largest publicly listed investment services company in the U.S. Schwab's operating data. Therefore, this should not be simply understood as an exchange adding three new coins. Listing coins on an exchange adds a trading entry within the crypto community. Schwab listing coins means integrating crypto assets into the traditional investors' familiar environment $CORE eagerly awaited positive news, but what came was just another harvesting script.
The gate is built splendidly, but the construction site has long been halted. CORE's recent market performance vividly illustrates this saying.
The circulation rate quietly reached 70.78%, and the pace of chip release suddenly accelerated. At midnight, the official Twitter timely released a dose of hype narrative; many holders woke up to the news, thinking the turning point had finally arrived, eagerly adding positions to catch the bottom.
The ending never brings surprises.
A large volume of unlocked chips during the day swarmed to crush the market; the brief pulse flashed by, and the coin price fell back and weakened again.
This script has been played countless times: laying out new stories overseas late at night, fermenting emotions through time differences, waiting for domestic retail investors to enter with high hopes, just to absorb the continuous selling pressure.
SatPay and BTCFi promotions are everywhere, but the landing progress keeps being delayed, and on-chain real activity remains low for a long time. Without real business bringing incremental buying, the project can only keep weaving new narratives, barely sustaining the community's remaining faith.
It’s not an immediate run, but the traces of seizing the window period to distribute chips in batches while the market position is still acceptable can no longer be hidden.
Nearly 30% of tokens are still not in circulation, and heavy selling pressure will hang over holders for a long time.
No matter how flashy the marketing narrative is, it ultimately cannot cover up the long-stagnant ecosystem. Setting Fed events aside, the key differences come down to liquidity, chip structure and valuation. 🟠 $BTC Institutional ETF demand + strong long-term holders = relatively stable supply. Without fresh external capital, BTC may remain range-bound rather than enter a sustained breakout. 🔵 $ETH A mix of institutional, DeFi, L2 and derivatives capital. Staking reduces liquid supply, but trapped overhead supply and L2 value diversion remain constraints. ETH needs stronger ecosystem fundamentals to Exchange decentralization.
On August 20, Binance launched Agent OS, packaging trading, market data, wallets, payments, and on-chain services into standardized interfaces, allowing third-party AI applications to connect directly, with MCP protocol support as well. It didn't create another chatbot but enabled agents to actually perform operations.
The key lies in permission design.
Documentation shows agents can only operate dedicated sub-accounts; funds must be manually transferred in, withdrawal permissions are restricted, and they cannot access the main account balance. This is more restrained than I expected. My judgment: AI agent trading will come sooner or later; the difference lies in how cleanly risk isolation is implemented. Before using, check three things: the maximum funds the agent can move, whether withdrawals are restricted, and if there is a manual circuit breaker. Letting agents place orders for you is fine, but handing over the main account keys is not.With the midterm elections approaching, the US military strikes Iran again. Who gave Trump the courage? Liang Jingru?
Of course not!
┈➤ The US and Venezuela reach an oil agreement
◆ August 28: Trump announced an oil agreement with Venezuela.
◆ August 29-30: Venezuela disclosed more details of the agreement.
◆ August 30-31: The US military attacked Iran again.
┈➤ A decent agreement
This cooperation is between the US government and Venezuela's private company NABEP, which does not own oil fields but only has development rights.
In terms of shareholding, the US holds 35%, Venezuela holds 65%.
The US can purchase 20% of the oil production at cost price with priority.
Overall, Venezuela holds a higher equity share at 65%, while the US side has a higher oil production allocation right at 55%.
Therefore, Venezuela still retains sovereignty and control over oil resources. The US gains future crude oil supply.
┈➤ In conclusion
It is precisely because of this agreement that Trump has confidence. After the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil industry, crude oil production can increase and be exported to the US, which will help lower US oil prices.
Of course, rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure, which has been idle for many years, also takes time. So in the short term, it at most soothes market sentiment. Trump is unlikely to take large-scale action against Iran in the short term. At least not before the midterm elections.The roadmap is here.
Ethlabs released the EIP priorities for the Hegotá hard fork: S-level includes EIP-8198 Quick Slots to shorten block time, EIP-8131/8279 to optimize resource pricing; A-level is EIP-8141 Frame Transactions for native account abstraction, managing passkey wallets, gas sponsorship, and batch transactions. Censorship resistance relies on FOCIL.
In short: Ethereum aims to be faster, more censorship-resistant, and make wallets no longer dependent on mnemonic phrases.
My judgment: Don’t wait until the mainnet launch to learn; you can understand the direction now. When choosing wallets and apps, first check three things: whether passkey is supported, if gas can be sponsored, and if transactions can be batched. These are not distant promises but items on the hard fork checklist. $BTC whale position profit and loss data! The story behind it is really something.
The market is currently in an uptrend.
Long positions hold a value of $4.473 billion, with margin at $639 million, about 7x leverage, and unrealized profit of $368 million, indicating that the long position cost is far below the current price, with a large accumulation of profitable positions.
Short positions hold a value of $5.043 billion, with margin at $822 million, about 6.13x leverage. This shows shorts are adding positions against the trend, and with sufficient margin, they are holding strong.
The longs are also in a difficult spot, winning on paper but continuously bleeding, feeling somewhat stuck.
Although longs have an unrealized profit of $368 million, they have already paid $41.69 million in funding fees.
That's about one-tenth of the profit.
The space gained by longs over time is narrowing.
If the price can't be pushed up, holding long for a long time risks a much more severe drawdown than shorts once the price can't hold.
Because longs face dual bleeding from price drops and funding fee expenses.
As shown, a certain whale's long position has a cost of 77,089, position value of $146 million, current price 78,460 with unrealized profit of $2.29 million, and funding fees already paid of $1.86 million. This means the price doesn't even need to fall below cost; if it drops near 78,000, this account enters a loss state.
Shorts, as long as margin is sufficient, can use time to gain space.
Additionally, the current potential risk is significant.
Longs have accumulated $368 million in unrealized profits.
Once the upward momentum disappears, some profitable whales may choose to take profits and exit, potentially causing a chain reaction of profit-taking.
This morning's price drop was very likely caused by whales taking profits.
As time goes on, without strong upward momentum, more whales may choose to take profits.
Therefore, after the market rally reaches a certain height and the uptrend starts to weaken, it's time to consider locking in gains.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and not investment advice! $ZORA is getting plenty of attention after its recent move, but the real story may be hiding in the derivatives market. Open interest is now around $47M, while longs still dominate positioning at roughly 58%. That kind of imbalance can become risky if momentum suddenly fades. The interesting part is funding. Despite the bullish sentiment around the coin, funding has turned slightly negative. That suggests the derivatives market isn’t completely convinced that the upside move can continue. For meOracle seen again.
Tectonic is a lending protocol running on Cronos. On August 30, attackers used the low-liquidity token TONIC as collateral, driving its price up about a hundredfold within twenty minutes, then borrowed tens of millions of dollars in stablecoins and ETH. The total loss is estimated between 75 million and 120 million dollars. Validators directly halted the entire chain.
The chain was stopped.
About 6 million dollars were bridged to Ethereum, while over 68 million remained frozen on the chain. The root cause of this kind of attack is not how clever the hackers are, but the oracle pricing being too naive: a token with thin daily trading volume can have its price pumped to borrow real money. In the future, when using lending protocols, first check three things: whether the collateral asset has sufficient liquidity, how many sources the oracle price feed has, and whether there is a circuit breaker mechanism after a risk event. Pausing the entire chain is a lifesaving measure, not a routine operation.90-day correlations are shifting. $BTC is becoming less correlated with Nasdaq tech while moving closer to gold. Meanwhile, $ETH remains strongly tied to tech risk assets. That suggests institutional positioning may be diverging: 🟠 BTC → increasingly viewed as a hedge against debt/liquidity risks 🔵 ETH → still trading more like a growth-oriented risk asset But don’t ignore rates. When Treasury yields surge, even gold and BTC can face pressure. Long term: debt expansion may support BTC. Short tPrivacy acceleration.
Zcash developers released the open-source cryptographic toolkit Zakura Common, reducing private transaction generation time from over three seconds to under two hundred milliseconds, with a speed increase of over fourteen times on mobile and over five times on desktop. The optimizations focus on proof generation, hashing, and verification processes. This chain aims to be a payment rail.
Privacy coins are often seen as gray tools, but speed is the key to their everyday adoption. My judgment: confirmation speed and fees are always the first barriers; privacy is just a bonus. If you want to try, first confirm three things: whether your region is compliant, whether your wallet supports the latest protocol, and whether small test transfers go smoothly. Technology is about data; usage depends on the law.Everyone thought Apple missed out on AI, but OpenAI is frantically buying Macs. The latest report shows that OpenAI has purchased tens of thousands of Mac mini and Mac Studio units for reinforcement learning and training AI agents that can directly operate computers, and is still searching for more machines. Anthropic is also renting Mac mini devices through AWS. 1. AI companies buy Macs not to replace Nvidia's real attraction, but because of Apple's unified silicon memory architecture. For some native AI, agents, and large memory tasks, Macs do have their own advantages. So this is not "Mac beating GPU," but rather a division of labor emerging in AI computing: large model training still relies on Nvidia, while local AI and agents may require a different type of machine. 2. The most interesting thing is that Apple itself may not have planned this path ahead of time. In the past, when discussing Apple AI, the focus was on whether Apple Intelligence could catch up with OpenAI. The result is now the opposite: AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have started buying large amounts of Apple hardware. Apple's Mac sales in the most recent quarter grew nearly 29% year-on-year to $10.4 billion, making it one of the fastest-growing product categories for the company. Even more interesting#财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns are tested again Family, the AI earnings relay race enters the second round. Dell goes first on September 1, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on September 2.
NVIDIA has already revealed the trump card of computing power demand. Now the market needs to verify the next level—whether AI investment can spread from chip procurement to servers, network equipment, and enterprise software. Dell is the window for servers and IT infrastructure, Broadcom is a key player in network chips and custom AI chips, and Snowflake represents cloud data platforms.
Dell needs to see if AI server orders can continuously convert into profits, not just contribute revenue without profit. Broadcom needs to answer whether the growth of custom AI chips can offset the slowdown in traditional business, and whether network equipment demand can keep up with computing power expansion. Snowflake needs to see if cloud data demand can form more stable subscription and usage revenue, rather than relying on one-time purchases from large customers.
NVIDIA has set a strong benchmark for AI hardware, but whether the entire chain can sustain this momentum will be revealed this week. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $NVDA $XAU In the last week of August, SPCX fluctuated sideways between $135 and $140. The implied volatility of options dropped from 120 to 57, with both bulls and bears taking a break. No short-term direction has emerged.
On August 26, the new Louisiana base was officially announced, featuring 10 launch pads and a $100 billion investment, aiming for thousands of launches annually, with the earliest first flight in 2029. The scale is ambitious, but the spending is real. Q2 capital expenditure was 18.4 billion, with AI alone burning 15.8 billion, and Starship recovery tests delayed again until the end of the year or early next year. The burn rate hasn't slowed, and with recovery delayed, the market's choice to wait and see is understandable.
Then there's the funding side: the previous rebound was indeed fierce — short positions dropped from 34% to 11%, pulling up 35% to 146 in a week. But after the surge, volume didn't follow, so it naturally consolidated. To push higher in the short term, a new catalyst is needed.
What to watch next? Morgan Stanley set a target price of 300, Citi 200, Bernstein 239. But analysts also said that valuation largely depends on whether Starship milestones can be met. About 700 million shares will be unlocked in September, so the pressure from available shares hasn't been fully absorbed.
At the 135-140 range, both bulls and bears are waiting. Waiting for new progress in Starship test flights, waiting for the next earnings report to prove that the burn rate is producing results. Until a direction emerges, managing position size is key.
Hoping for a successful next Starship test flight this afternoon $SPCX #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 The market view for predictions may be quite close to reality: Bitcoin (BTC) prices will fluctuate significantly in 2026, reaching a high of $92,000 and dropping to a low of $57,700. Recent market interest in Bitcoin has surged, driving the rise of this leading global cryptocurrency, but the market does not expect this rally to continue. According to average forecasts, Kalshi bettors believe Bitcoin will close around $75,000 by the end of this year, which is far below some more optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin's price. Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by year-end, while Bernstein expects it to reach $125,000 or above. So, what are the most likely scenarios? The author believes that the forecast market may make better predictions about Bitcoin's year-end price this time. Here are the reasons: investors currently cannot decide how to handle Bitcoin$BTC. As many investors shift their focus from cryptocurrencies to artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, Bitcoin's value has dropped sharply from its all-time high of over $126,000 at the end of 2025. Who can be blamed for that? Many AI companies have recorded extraordinary revenue and earnings growth, with their stock prices also showing considerable gains. For example, memory chip company Micron Technology's stock price has surged over 700% over the past 12 months, driven by surging demand for data center and device memory#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温
Both Brent and WTI crude oil rose more than 3% intraday today, tightening the market instantly.
The market fears that if the Strait of Hormuz really has an incident, crude oil prices will break $100, and inflation expectations will rise again.
Crypto is actually in a bit of an awkward spot; BTC is holding at 78000, but the strengthening dollar is suppressing it, and safe-haven funds would rather go to gold than to Bitcoin.
I checked, and gold ETFs have seen large inflows these past two days; the direction of safe-haven fund reallocation is very clear.
If crude oil continues to push higher, the Fed’s room to cut interest rates will be squeezed again, which is not good news for risk assets.
So as long as this conflict doesn’t ease, it will be difficult for crypto to strengthen independently; better to stay on the sidelines for now.
$BTC $ETH #原油 #宏观Feeling better
Luckily held on and didn't run away
Opened a $ETH short at 2409, held until around 2380
Unrealized profit surged to over 20 U, now it's back down
Last night almost got shaken out by a pump-and-dump by the dog whales
Today finally the bulls are bearing the pullback
This Ethereum drop is not due to ETF funds fleeing
Spot ETFs still maintain net inflows
The trigger was the failed breakout at 2530
Bullish momentum exhausted
Combined with the tense US-Iran situation pushing oil prices up
US Treasury yields remain high
The market is re-pricing September rate hike expectations
Risk funds collectively withdrawing
Mass stop-losses and forced liquidations on longs triggered in chain
Further amplifying the downtrend
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 比特币的现货ETF资金流向，在连续九个交易日录得净流入之后，终于出现了转向。根据公开数据，8月28日当天，美国现货比特币ETF录得了约2.019亿美元的净流出。这组数字本身并不算惊人，但放在前面那波超过30亿美元的资金洪流之后，就格外值得品味了。 市场对此的第一反应，往往容易滑向“资金正在逃离加密资产”的简单叙事。但如果我们把目光稍微移开一点，看看以太坊和瑞波币的表现，会发现事情并没有那么悲观。这或许不是一次全面的撤退，而更像是一场内部的重新排兵布阵。 比特币依然是整个加密世界的基准，这一点从未改变。它依然是机构配置中体量最大、历史最悠久、流动性最好的选择。然而，最新的资金数据告诉我们，机构的需求并不是铁板一块。九个交易日的连续流入之后，出现一个负值的交易日，并不能直接判定趋势逆转。机构可能是在获利了结，可能是在调仓，也可能是在一波强劲的反弹之后主动降低风险敞口。 但时间节点确实有些微妙。就在ETF资金流出的同时，比特币的价格已经在此前触及8万美元区域后遭到了拒绝，并回落到了7.7万美元附近。一边是价格在高位区间的反复整理，一边是ETF资金动能的暂时熄火，这两件事叠加在一起，让接下来的Serenity assesses Celestial Standalone valuation: CPO business potential could reach $6 billion to $10 billion
Serenity posted on social media that if Celestial remains listed as an independent company, its core position in CPO (co-packaged optics) among hyperscale cloud providers could be valued at $6 billion to $10 billion, far exceeding current market negative perceptions of its loss-based and meager revenue.
Celestial is a hard technology company focused on co-packaged optical (CPO) technology, which has been acquired by Marvell. Serenity's analysis indicates that Celestial expects revenue of $500 million in 2028 (annualized in Q4) and $1 billion in 2029, and is a core player in hyperscale cloud vendor CPO projects. However, the company's Q2 2026 revenue is close to zero, and Marvell stated its revenue and profit contributions are "not significant," with a quarterly loss of about $12.5 million (annualized loss of about $50 million). Serenity believes that based solely on current quarterly P/S and losses, Celestial might be regarded as a "worthless meme stock," but considering customer validation cycles and potential hyperscale cloud vendor CPO project opportunities in 2028, its reasonable valuation should be around 60 🔥 It’s starting again! The Middle East situation is escalating, with talks of reopening the Strait of Hormuz clashing with fresh military strikes and retaliation.
Oil jumped nearly 2.7%, with Brent approaching $90, yet gold and $BTC fell sharply.
Why? The market is no longer simply trading “war = risk-off.” Investors are watching whether higher oil prices could reignite inflation, push yields and the dollar higher, and keep liquidity tight.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh
#BTCGoldCorrelation On the last day of August, Dogecoin fell back to around $0.083, still maintaining about a 20% gain for the month. This round of increase is easily packaged as a sentiment rebound, but the market feels more like a capital test after a long decline: the rebound came quickly, and the selling pressure ahead of $0.10 was not absent.
In the short term, focus first on around $0.081. Holding here indicates that the funds previously entering the market are still willing to support, and the price has a chance to repeatedly test the $0.087 to $0.095 range. If the daily chart breaks down effectively, the market will look for support near $0.074. Contract positions have already contracted from the highs; after the exit of chasing funds, volatility may not end immediately, and might instead become more wearing. Right now, it feels more like a patience battle within a range, not suitable to treat every rebound as a takeoff signal.
On the macro side, the market is waiting for U.S. employment data to set the tone for September's interest rate expectations. Risk assets remain sensitive to easing expectations; weak data will give the crypto market sentiment some breathing room, while strong data will push liquidity concerns back to the forefront. Dogecoin lacks a stable fundamental anchor, so its ups and downs are often more exaggerated than the broader market.
I view it as a highly elastic sentiment position, not taking a single monthly candle as trend confirmation. If it can stabilize on lower volume during a pullback, it indicates that this round of capital still has the patience to continue the story. Whether it can reclaim above $0.09 is more valuable as a reference than a surge in any single hour. If it relies only on hype and short-term leverage, when the heat dissipates, the pullback will be sharp as well $DOGE
(This is only personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Today XMR is strengthening, and many reports say: THORChain v3.20 already supports native cross-chain swaps for XMR, ZEC, BTC, and ETH.
But after checking the official announcement, I found that things are not moving as fast as the headlines suggest.
v3.20 has indeed integrated the relevant technical framework, but official trading for XMR and ZEC is not yet open. To monitor network stability, the new feature is expected to be paused for one to two weeks before gradually going live.
This is a very typical scene in the crypto space:
The project team says "coming soon," the media writes "already launched," and the market prices in future expectations ahead of time.
This doesn't mean the positive news is false; it's just that "coded in," "officially enabled," and "actually used by people" are three completely different stages.
For ordinary users, the most important thing is not to rush just because they see the words "native cross-chain," but to wait until the feature is live and then check:
Is there enough liquidity?
Is the slippage high for large swaps?
Are the nodes running stably?
What is the actual trading volume?
Cross-chain support without liquidity is more like a technical demo; only when users are truly willing to use it does it become a business.
Crypto prices often run ahead of the product.
Headlines create FOMO, details tell you where the risks lie. Today's market backbone is Wash. The Jackson Hole annual meeting has concluded, and the new chairman immediately set a hawkish tone, stating that inflation remains above target and the Federal Reserve still has work to do. The responsibility for the persistently high inflation over the past approximately 65 months lies entirely with the central bank. Once these words came out, the market immediately priced them in: spot gold fell more than $120 in one day, rate hike bets were reignited, Goldman Sachs verbally expressed disbelief in a September rate hike, while JPMorgan added that it still depends on August's nonfarm payrolls and CPI, leaving the suspense for next week.
A more direct blow to the crypto circle is that the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which had lasted for 9 consecutive days, was ended, with a net outflow of $202 million yesterday. The enthusiasm accumulated over the previous 9 days suddenly deflated. On one side, the Federal Reserve's hawkish pressure looms; on the other, ETF funds are shifting. Bitcoin dropped from above 80,000 down to 78,520, a level that coincides with the technical point where BTC twice tested the 50-week moving average but retreated. August recorded the strongest monthly performance in nine years, but the result is a test at the start of September, a script very much like the saying: "When the moon is full, it wanes; when the water is full, it overflows."
However, this round of decline is not without supporting logic. Last week's foundation remains: Bitcoin spot ETFs had a total net inflow of $924 million last week, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $938 million. Ethereum spot ETFs also had a net inflow of $824 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA leading at $567 million. Institutional money is not retreating; it is profit-taking and observing.$XRP pullback after a strong rally, short-term can still lean bullish
XRP current price $1.37, 24H -1%, has pulled back from about $1.05 in mid-August to $1.67, now undergoing high-level digestion.
Moreover, funds have not significantly withdrawn: as of August 28, XRP ETF weekly net inflow was $110 million, a new high for 2026; but contract OI recently fell from about $3.36B to $3.17B, indicating leverage is cooling down.
This combination can continue to lean bullish: spot funds remain, contract leverage is retreating, representing a healthy pullback after a rise, not a trend reversal. BTC is currently repeatedly pressured around $78K, with the market risk appetite cautious, so XRP accelerating directly again is not that easy.
Short-term strategy: do not chase, wait for the pullback to catch. $1.34–1.35 is the first support, $1.28–1.30 is strong support/bull-bear boundary; if it reclaims $1.43, target $1.50 first, a volume breakout above $1.50 then looks at $1.65–1.70.
If $1.28 breaks, and OI quickly increases again, ETF inflows weaken, the current bullish view is invalidated. Otherwise, this wave looks more like deleveraging, a drop is actually more comfortable than chasing $1.4.The biggest shock of the week hasn't been announced yet 😅
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and finally Friday's nonfarm payrolls, data keeps coming one after another. Sigh, the market probably won't calm down this week.
Walsh has already put "inflation priority" on the table. As long as employment doesn't show obvious weakness, the hawks have reason to stay tough; conversely, if the nonfarm payrolls really surprise on the downside again, the scary rate hike expectations from a few days ago might have to be pulled back.
So $BTC tossing around near $80,000 these days doesn't surprise me at all. Breakouts before the data lands are really hard to tell if they're genuine or not.$BTC fell below 78,000, $ETH lost 2,500, and $SOL also dropped over 3%—the market is panicking again.
It just bounced back to 79,000 for less than two days before all gains were wiped out by negative news. After Wash turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped directly from 35% to 57%-60%. PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2% target for 65 consecutive months—Wash said inflation isn't coming down, so the job isn't done yet. #EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Wash's policy stance is being tested
And it's not over yet: Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index, Thursday's ISM Services Prices Paid Index, and Friday's August Nonfarm Payrolls—if any come out high, rate hike expectations will surge again. Wash has redefined the rules: in the past, weak employment meant lower rate hike expectations; now inflation is the core variable, and as long as employment doesn't deteriorate significantly, rate hikes are unstoppable.
On top of that, the US-Iran military conflict has escalated, oil prices have risen, and risk assets are being crushed. #USIranMilitaryConfrontationEscalates, Oil Supply Risk Heats Up
$BTC is hovering between 77,000-78,000, $ETH is stuck at 2,430, and $SOL is falling the hardest. All three are under pressure. If $BTC can't hold the 76,000-77,000 support zone, it may look for a bottom at 73,000-75,000. $ETH is weaker, with 2,400 as the critical point.
People call it a bull market when it rebounds and a bear market when it falls—can you have some independent judgment? #TradingVoice: Your Experience Deserves to Be Heard Helium的SEC和解发生在2025年4月，罚款20万美元。HNT的170%暴涨发生在2026年8月最后一个周末。中间隔了十六个月。 为什么不是十七个月，也不是十五个月？ 把这个问题问出来，整件事的框架就变了。原文已经把“轧空还是真实需求”分析得足够透彻——空头清算160万、未平仓合约暴涨197.6%、融资利率深至-10%，结论很清晰：杠杆点燃的烟火，不是基本面点燃的日出。但这个结论太干净了。它解释了这个涨幅“靠什么推动”，却绕开了一个更不舒服的问题：这场烟火，谁是放的人，谁又是必须看它升空的人？ 从“轧空”换到“时间差” 8月31日，周日，美国劳动节前夜，传统市场的流动性正在被抽干。这是一个刻意选择的时间窗口。 为什么选在劳动节前的周末动手？因为主流金融媒体休假、机构交易台减员、监管注意力最薄弱。对于一笔只需要160万美元空头清算就能推动170%涨幅的标的来说，流动性真空就是最好的杠杆。HNT的日交易量做到了2.48亿美元，超过自身市值。这个数字反过来读更准确：只需要极少数资金，就能在一个小市值标的上制造出“流动性幻觉”。 而那个“德州Wi-Fi部署项目”，是唯一被指认为导火索的事Ethereum recently has an interesting proposal: validators can voluntarily donate 0% to 10% of their staking rewards to support ecosystem development. On the surface, this is a matter of money, but in reality, it touches on an old topic—who should ultimately pay for Ethereum's public infrastructure?
Let's do the math. Validators collectively receive about 700,000 ETH in rewards annually. If around 51% of validators participate and donate up to the 10% cap, this could raise 50,000 to 70,000 $ETH per year. If this money is actually secured, core development and client maintenance—these "public utilities"—would have a stable funding source, no longer relying on foundation grants or project handouts.
But the controversy lies here. Validators are originally roles that spend money to buy security and earn returns; now they are being asked to take a portion out of their own pockets to support the ecosystem, directly reducing their net earnings. Some are willing, seeing it as a long-term investment; others refuse, questioning why it should be their burden.
For the market, it's even more subtle. Funds flowing into the ecosystem means a portion of ETH is locked into development budgets, effectively reducing circulating supply, which is bullish; but validator rewards decrease, making staking less attractive, which is bearish. These two forces are trading off simultaneously, so the short-term market may not give a consistent answer. Therefore, don't just focus on the words "fundraising"—what really matters is the voting tendency of the validator community—their choice is the true barometer of Ethereum governance sentiment.By the end of August, weekly net inflows into cryptocurrency investment products had surged to $3.2 billion, setting a new record since October 2025. Compared to the previous week's net outflow of $392 million, the flow of funds has sharply reversed, marking a significant rebound in institutional investor interest in digital assets. The breakdown of the capital structure reveals a high concentration of institutional preferences. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the dominant force, absorbing $1.9 billion in net inflows in a single week; Spot Ethereum ETFs follow, contributing $697 million. These two core assets together accounted for 81% of all crypto fund inflows that week, demonstrating the hedging and allocation attributes of mature assets. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, in August alone, the monthly net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $3 billion. Even amid persistently high market volatility, underlying demand remained strong. This sharp shift from outflows to large inflows not only reflects the rapid turnover of funds but also reflects institutional investors' firm belief in leading assets in a complex macro environment, rather than blindly chasing highly volatile niche assets. In terms of macro attribution, Bank of America (BAC. US) based on EPFR Global statistics indicates that this capital surge covers three core markets: North America, Europe, and Asia, encompassing physically-backed funds and futures products. Looking back at the historical peak in October 2025, when spot ETFs were acquiringHORMUZ HEATS UP AGAIN — CRYPTO COULD TAKE ANOTHER HIT
The U.S. struck Iranian rocket launchers near Hormuz, while Tehran retaliated with missiles targeting U.S. positions in Jordan. Brent pushed above $90, while $BTC briefly fell to $77K before recovering toward $78K
The bigger risk isn’t just the conflict. Rising oil prices could reignite inflation pressure and strengthen expectations for a more hawkish Fed. For crypto continued risk-off sentiment could put further pressure on $BTC and altcoins$3.2 billion inflow, but BTC shrinks in volume and falls: What is missing in this rally?
OKX market currently shows $BTC at $78,520, up 0.67% in 24 hours.
$ETH at $2,447, down 0.28%.
$SOL at $103.09, down 1.44%.
$HYPE at $81.27, down 2.39%.
$OKB fluctuates around $112.
The total market cap is about $2.63 trillion, down 2.49% daily, with 439 coins up and 753 down.
Last week, crypto funds saw a net inflow of $3.2 billion, the highest since October 2025; among them, BTC spot ETFs attracted $924.5 million.
However, although BTC rose over 30% in August, trading volume remains at a nearly three-year low, with average trading volume on major exchanges shrinking by about 70%.
This indicates that funds have not fully returned but are concentrated in a few channels such as ETFs.
Sector-wise, modular blockchains rose 5.17%, DeFAI up 3.32%, while DeFi fell 0.88%, and AI Agents dropped 3.35%.
Currently, institutional buying can provide a floor but struggles to independently drive a major rally.
BTC needs to clearly break above $80,000 with significant volume for the market to truly strengthen.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 According to Woofun AI, American Bitcoin, a mining company affiliated with the Donald Trump family, revealed on the Wolf Financial podcast that its daily output has stabilized between 11 and 13 Bitcoins. This figure, personally confirmed by Eric Trump, marks the family's substantial expansion in crypto infrastructure and has made its operational efficiency a market focus. In terms of operational scale, the company deployed about 90,000 mining machines, with a single-quarter production of 932 Bitcoins in the second quarter. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that by the end of August, its Bitcoin reserves had surged to 8,300, a significant jump from 5,401 at the end of 2025. With a 49% gross margin, this 'dig only, don't sell' accumulation strategy aims to capture potential price dividends through long-term holding, reflecting the strong expectation of large mining companies for asset appreciation. However, differences in cost accounting standards have sparked intense debate. Eric Trump claims mining costs are only $57,000, while Forbes reports indicate that after depreciation, administrative expenses, and financing costs, the actual cost should be as high as $90,000. Trump accuses the calculation of being politically motivated without providing detailed evidence. This discrepancy reveals a common industry problem: published cash costs often exclude non-cash items and indirect expenses, leading to an overestimation of true profitability. As mining difficulty rises and energy costs fluctuate, low transport occurs市场刚刚再次被地缘政治情绪扰动。 随着中东局势出现新的军事升级迹象，原油价格快速反弹，风险资产同步承压。$BTC 一度从接近 $80,600 的位置回落至约 $76,900，短时间内杠杆多头遭到集中清算，过去24小时加密市场爆仓金额也明显上升。 但这一次，我更关注的并不是BTC跌了多少，而是👇 资金到底去了哪里？ 📉 BTC现货ETF近期出现约 $180M 的单日净流出，结束此前持续数日的资金流入趋势。 📈 反过来看，ETH现货ETF依然表现得更加坚挺，近期单周净流入达到约 $690M，其中贝莱德旗下ETHA贡献了超过 $470M。 这意味着一个值得关注的变化： BTC出现资金获利了结，并不一定代表整个加密市场正在撤资。 部分资金可能正在从BTC转向ETH等资产。 🔥 现在市场可能正在经历： 地缘冲突升级 → 风险资产短线承压 → BTC率先受到冲击 → ETF资金开始出现分化 → ETH相对强弱值得继续观察 当然，地缘政治的不确定性仍然是本周最大的变量之一。 如果BTC能够守住 $75K–$77K 区域，同时ETH ETF继续保持正向资金流，那么这轮下跌更像是一次风险重新定价据 Woofun AI 消息，东京上市投资公司 Metaplanet 再次向 Coinbase (COIN.US) Prime 转移资产，这一动作被市场解读为其作为亚洲版微策略在机构化资产管理路径上的关键一步，而非简单的流动性变现 此次操作的具体细节显示，Metaplanet 将 800 枚比特币存入该平台，按当前市值计算约合 6219 万美元。Onchain Lens 的数据追踪证实，自 8 月底以来，该公司在 Coinbase (COIN.US) Prime 上的比特币持有总量已突破 2500 枚 值得注意的是，将资产转入交易所常被散户视为即将抛售的先兆，但 Coinbase (COIN.US) Prime 并非面向零售用户的普通交易所，而是一个专为机构投资者打造的优质经纪平台。该平台提供涵盖交易、托管、融资、抵押借贷及场外交易（OTC）在内的全方位金融服务。对于 Metaplanet 而言，选择此类平台更多是出于资金管理策略的考量，旨在利用其机构级托管服务保障资产安全，或为未来不影响公开市场价格的大规模 OTC 交易做准备，这与零售交易所存款所隐含的出售意图存在本质区别 从历史轨US debt won't be paid back it'll be inflated away, like after WWII. No default, just a currency that buys less each year.
Gold reacts first the fast, boring hedge. BTC is the slower, more asymmetric bet on the same trend fixed supply, nothing dilutes it.
Same thesis, different speed.
NFA.Market Brief: Geopolitical conflicts disturb the market, cross-market divergence appears
Market Overview
Geopolitical events are escalating again, with the US military striking Iranian military targets. The situation's escalation drives oil prices up, putting risk assets under collective pressure.
BTC faces negative geopolitical impacts, falling from 78000 to a low of 77000, then quickly recovering lost ground. Despite this level of negative news, there was no deep decline, indicating some support at the lower level.
ETH shows relative weakness, losing the 2500 level, with 2400 becoming a key observation point. The market begins to question the effectiveness of ETF-driven funds.
US stocks weaken in pre-market; storage sector stocks Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron briefly rise then quickly pull back. The long-term supply-demand logic for AI storage is still recognized by institutions, viewing this drop as a short-term valuation correction.
SPCX shows resilience, maintaining fluctuations around 141, bullish but acknowledging high valuation, with key resistance near 155.
Going forward, focus on the progress of the US crypto legislation, as its direction will directly affect capital inflow willingness.
Market Logic
Geopolitical conflicts bring short-term risk aversion, triggering collective sell-off of risk assets, but the impact depends on market support. BTC's quick recovery from lows indicates buying support at the bottom.
Clear divergence among coins: BTC shows stronger support, ETH weaker performance, with ETF fund effects varying across coins.
The storage sector maintains solid long-term logic, but short-term sentiment drives valuation pullback, representing volatility under a fundamentally sound narrative. This week's data is indeed dense, with JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and non-farm payrolls lined up. Honestly, just seeing these abbreviations gives me a reflex headache, let alone trying to guess each one.
Let me share my approach. I do trend following, with one core rule: wait for the market to move first, then follow. Guessing data is something I've done too many times before, and the results were basically 50/50, no different from flipping a coin. Later I realized—guessing right doesn't necessarily mean making money, because the intermediate rebounds and spikes can easily throw me off; guessing wrong is even worse, with tight stop losses getting hit and wide stops causing big losses.
So now my strategy is simple: if the price doesn't move, I don't move; if the price moves, I follow.
Back to the present. After Waller's speech at Jackson Hole last week, I think the market pricing hasn't fully digested it yet. He mentioned "inflation" 25 times throughout, repeatedly emphasizing "there's still work to do." The market reaction was quite direct—the probability of a September rate hike rose from 30% to 57%, BTC was hammered down from 81k to 77-78k, and it's still grinding in that range.
But interestingly, look at BTC's move from about 62k almost vertically up to 81k, with almost no decent pullbacks. After Waller's speech, it dropped to just above 77k, about a 5% move, which is nothing for BTC. What does this indicate? It means the big bullish structure is still intact, just facing short-term macro pressure.
So, in my view, this week's data serves to pick a direction for this range:
If employment data is clearly weak, for example, non-farm payrolls below 50,000, Waller's hawkish logic will be temporarily weakened, and the market will reprice the rate hike path. If BTC can break above the previous neckline at 82k with volume, I will add to my position without hesitation. Such a breakout signals the removal of macro pressure, and hesitation is not an option.
If employment data beats expectations, for example, non-farm payrolls above 120,000, that will give Waller more ammunition—expectations for a September hike will strengthen further, and the dollar may continue to strengthen. If BTC falls below 77k, I will reduce my position. Note, reducing position does not mean bearishness, but respecting the signal that the trend might be changing. If it quickly recovers after breaking down, I will buy back in.
If the data falls in the middle range of 50,000 to 120,000, that is a "neither strong nor weak" report, and the market may continue to oscillate in this range. Waller's words cannot be verified or falsified for now. I will just hold my current position, neither increasing nor decreasing.
Many people like to ask me "bullish or bearish," and my answer is always—follow where the price goes. Bull or bear doesn't matter; getting the direction right is what matters.
This week I won't bet on the data; I will do only one thing: wait for the data to come out, wait for the market reaction, then follow the direction that has already emerged.
This week, are you ready to bet on the data, or will you wait for trend confirmation like me? Let's discuss in the comments.
$BTC $XAU #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 On August 31, the South Korean stock market plunged sharply in early trading, with the intraday maximum drop approaching 3.6%. However, the KOSPI index did not hold at the low level and completed a deep V-shaped reversal by the close, ultimately finishing up 0.46%.
Full market movement: KOSPI opened down 2.58%, hitting a low of 6547.76 points with a drop expanding to 3.55%; heavyweight semiconductor stocks were clearly under pressure, with Samsung Electronics retreating as much as 4.28% in early trading, and SK Hynix falling as much as 4.60%. Subsequently, the chip sector quickly recovered and rebounded, driving the market from a decline to a rise, closing at 6820.02 points, up 0.46%. Samsung Electronics closed up 1.17%, and SK Hynix rose 1.27%.
Wash expressed a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole symposium, stating that inflation risks have not yet been eliminated, and the market is repricing the possibility of a rate hike in September. Overnight, U.S. tech and semiconductor stocks weakened, and South Korea, as a global core semiconductor production area, was directly impacted by sentiment. Additionally, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have very high weightings in the index, so weakness in these stocks directly dragged the market down.
The deep V-shaped move from a drop of over 3.5% to closing in the green sends a key signal: the decline was not caused by a deterioration in the fundamentals of South Korean chips. The export outlook for South Korean chips remains positive, with August exports expected to continue strong growth. AI computing power demand continues to support the performance of the two leading companies. Official August trade data will be officially released on September 1.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 SK Hynix is researching a joint storage chip factory in Japan.
What I think needs attention is that the storage super cycle may be longer than the market expects.
SK Hynix $SKHYNIX has even started looking for production capacity in Japan, driven by AI demand pushing DRAM/NAND into tight balance; the company just announced the Indiana project is expected to mass-produce HBM4E by 2029, and it predicts a global memory shortage may continue until 2030. Hynix currently holds about 58% of the global HBM market share.
Kioxia and SanDisk also announced a few days ago an additional $31 billion storage investment in Japan through 2032, indicating this is not just one company's expansion but the entire industry chain competing for future capacity.
However, the market has already priced in some of these expectations: at the end of July, when AI hardware valuations were slashed, SK Hynix's stock once plummeted 14.7% in a single day, but it has since rebounded. So I see this news as somewhat bullish, but the core is not the "building a factory in Japan" itself, rather that supply expansion still cannot keep up with AI demand. If this logic continues to hold, the high prosperity of storage stocks can be extended; conversely, if expansion speed significantly exceeds AI demand, the harshest phase of the cycle stocks will return.