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Tonight, with the non-farm payroll implementation, is the U.S. stock market facing "bad news = good news"?
Tonight's US July nonfarm payroll data came in below expectations:
📉 Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000
📉 The market had previously expected a growth of about 80,000
📉 Wage growth slows to 3.2%
Signs of cooling in the job market 
But the market response was quite interesting.
After the data was released, U.S. stocks did not panic but instead rose.
The reason is simple:
The market is not trading economic downturn, but rather:
Employment cooling→ easing inflationary pressures→ increased room for Fed rate cuts
Rising expectations for rate cuts have supported tech stocks and growth assets. The Nasdaq performed relatively strongly, with funds returning to risk assets 
For the crypto market, this is also an important signal.
In recent months, risk assets like BTC and ETH have been influenced by interest rate expectations.
If subsequent economic data continues to weaken but does not enter a recession:
✅ Dollar pressure may ease
✅ Liquidity expectations have improved
✅ Valuations of high-risk assets are expected to rise
However, it is important to note:
Weak employment is also a double-edged sword.
If data continues to deteriorate and the market begins to worry about a recession, the logic will shift from "expecting rate cuts" to "worrying about growth," putting risk assets under pressure again.
In the short term:
Tonight, the non-farm payroll sent a dovish signal to the market.
Next to watch:
1️⃣ Federal Reserve officials speak
2️⃣ Subsequent CPI data
3️⃣ Can BTC break through key resistance levels?
Currently, the market is trading a new expectation:
The economy is cooling down, but a liquidity tipping point may be approaching. 45 coins, 6 baskets—this isn't a classification, it's a map 🧠 of capital flows. Have you ever thought that the thing we watch every day, called the "market," actually never existed? I recently reviewed my on-chain holdings and discovered something quite subtle. The market has long ceased to rise and fall as a whole, but has become six parallel universes operating independently. DeFi, Layer 1, RWA, Layer 2, AI, and the quietest storage layer—each block has its own breathing rhythm and capital temperament. Let's look at the data first. On the DeFi side, AAVE and UNI remain the favorite places for old money, but what really surprised me is that new faces like SYRUP and MORPHO are being mentioned frequently. What does this mean? This shows that capital is also switching between old and new sectors within the same track—not just a simple sector rotation, but an aesthetic iteration. Layer 1 is the most crowded, with ten projects packed together from ETH to SEI, but their price performance is astonishingly poor. This sends me a signal: relying solely on "I am a public chain" no longer tells a story; the market is forcing each chain to prove what it has to retain users. RWA is the most interesting window of observation. Names like ONDO and PENDLE keep appearing, and gold tokens like XAUT and PAXG are quietly included. You'll find that when the market starts to panic, funds instinctively hide in places where they can "touch the real world." This is not a decline in risk appetite; rather, funds are finding anchor points for themselves. Layer 2 and AI$ETH Ethereum: Prague upgrade expectations catalyze strength, but the trend still lags behind SOL, indicating a complete shift in capital preferences
Ethereum rose 1.68% in 24 hours, currently priced at $1,931, driven by expectations of the Prague network upgrade in September. BlackRock's ETH ETF accounted for nearly 90% of the net inflow in a single day, providing short-term support for the market.
But a very real problem is clear: even with a slight rebound in ETH, its performance is still significantly weaker than Solana's. In the past two weeks, institutional funds have continuously flowed out of Ethereum ETFs into SOL-related investment products, with the main focus shifting from the established Ethereum to the new generation of high-performance public blockchains.
The classic rhythm of past bull markets: BTC launched→ ETH followed → widespread counterfeit rally, but this scenario lost its effect in August. Currently, the market lacks enough incremental capital to support the overall rally, so funds can only selectively cluster in niche sectors.
In the short term, as long as ETH cannot outperform BTC and SOL again, it means overall market risk appetite is not high, and a large-scale counterfeit season is unlikely to arrive. The key short-term support is $1900. If it breaks below this rebound structure, it will immediately end the cycle, with $1980 above as the first major resistance level.This cannot be simply understood as the end of the AI memory bull market; it is more like high expectations beginning to be validated by earnings reports.
Although Western Digital's earnings were overall better than expected, its stock price plunged sharply due to cautious guidance and profit margin statements for the next quarter; SanDisk also fell after outperforming both earnings reports as the median revenue guidance for the next fiscal quarter fell short of market consensus, putting collective pressure on the storage sector
In terms of market performance, $XSNDK -4.55% latest 1228.33; $XSKHY -4.14% latest 137.2; $XNVDA +1.31% latest 222.3.
Trading tendency: Not bottom-fishing, waiting for the decline to stop and confirmation of support. The sector is still digesting high expectations; let's first see if the decline can narrow.
It's not that there's no opportunity, but don't treat the first financial report drop as an automatic entry point. First, let's see if the declines in $XSNDK and $XSKHY can narrow down, then see if the main market leader like $XNVDA will be dragged down.
#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SNDK $XSNDK $XSKHY $XNVDANonfarm payroll data will be released tonight, and the market could be repriced by a candlestick at any moment. $ETH The past few weeks have been decent. Although it hasn't skyrocketed, the structure has been steadily rising. The biggest concern at this position is not that all the positive news is exhausted, but that macro data will directly knock back risk appetite. Just look at a few hard indicators and you'll see that $ETH's current foundation is quite strong. ETFs have seen net inflows for four consecutive weeks, with an additional $99 million in the past seven days. Over the past 30 days, cumulative inflows have exceeded 300 million. Institutional buying is not waiting, but continuously increasing positions. On the other hand, staking volume is also rising, currently piling up to 37.85M $ETH. Some whales locked in 112,000 coins at once. Such a move shows that smart money does not plan to run short-term. There are still expectations of a Glamsterdam upgrade in the second half of the year. Although the date is undecided, the market has always liked to jump ahead. If expanded blob capacity combined with built-in PBS is implemented, the valuation logic for $ETH is a real plus. Combined with EIP-8361's long-term deflationary token, validator rewards are burned once staked supply exceeds 50%. Once this narrative ferments, funds will have more reason to stay in the $ETH rather than move away. Ultimately, no matter how strong the fundamentals are, it still depends on tonight's data performance. If nonfarm payrolls and inflation fall short of expectations, $ETH's high beta attributes will first amplify the gains, and the probability of holding above 2000 is not low. Conversely, if the data is too strong, the 1850 support will become the main battleground for bulls and bears. This$ASP (1H) – Consolidation Recovery
Bias: LONG
Entry Zone: 0.01240 – 0.01250
Stop Loss: 0.01220
TP1: 0.01270
TP2: 0.01290
TP3: 0.01320
Why this setup:
Price recovered strongly from the 0.01211 spike low and is holding above short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10/MA20), signaling potential upward momentum.
NFA – Educational purposes only.
#AIMemoryBullTest #Alphabet25BBond #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
I'm actually not very concerned about whether this nonfarm payroll is positive or negative.
When the data blows up, market volatility increases; When the data weakens, the volatility is also large. No matter which direction you go, arbitrage opportunities can run within the grid range. Whether the negative news is exhausted or employment recovers, one-sided rallies are left for direction-makers to gamble; what I want is prices to keep going back and forth.
ADP of 44,000 is indeed weak, and initial claims have been below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, with data clashes. Cook said preparations are needed, and the market is still pricing in a 56.7% rate hike in September. The macro theme has shifted from "weak employment driving rate cuts" to "can weak employment suppress inflation." The direction is uncertain, volatility is certain, and the grid pattern comes in handy.
$SNDK SanDisk's grid is still running, with prices fluctuating between 1300 and 1400, the lower boundary of the range not broken below 1219, and the grid has been eating up the price difference. No matter what numbers non-farm payrolls release, as long as volatility increases, the grid can keep trading multiple times. When the grid drops, buy at the lower edge of the range; when it rises, sell at the upper edge—both are profits.Missed the replenishment!
I'm so mad!
Just now, $ETH was directly inserted to 1944
I wanted to fill the gap, but I just couldn't catch it
They had no choice but to add some margin to C2C
Now Qiangping has moved up to around 2001
This position should be secure
I refuse to believe we can still get up 😭
But he said it was steady
He still felt a bit anxious
After all, 50 ETH short positions
There was only a little bit left before Qiangping
Bring another needle like before
I might not be able to sleep again
—
Tonight, the nonfarm payroll is very conflicted
New employment decreased by 23,000
Far below market expectations
In the past two months, the total downgrade was 103,000
This will ease market pressure on policy betting
So ETH's first wave was directly upward
But the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
Wages still up 3.2% year-on-year
And it's not weak enough to immediately change the Fed's course
So even after 1944, it was still smashed down
ETF funds are also adding to the burden on the bears
On August 6, $BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $137.6 million
ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $92.1 million
This indicates that institutional funds are also following down
However, the crypto bill has been extending
Combined with the situation in Iran and the risk of the strait,
The desire to chase the rise is not very firm
—
ETH surged to 1944 within an hour, leaving a long upper shadow
It has now fallen back below the short-term moving average
This is good news for the bears
—
$BTC Still fluctuating around 64,500
Short-term support near 64,100
The first resistance is around 65,300
Only if it falls below 64,000 is there a chance to continue watching 63,000
Breaking above 65,300 actually makes short squeezing easier
Currently, it looks more like a consolidation
The direction has not yet been clearly chosen
—
SNDK isn't just poor earnings this time
It's that market expectations are too high
Quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion
Month-on-month growth of 51%
Adjusted earnings per share were $39.25
The numbers are indeed impressive
However, revenue guidance for next quarter is slightly below market expectations
Gross margin guidance has also not been further raised
So funds directly chose to cash out the good news
—
This order is secure
It had just survived since 1944
ETH should first truly break through 1893 before celebrating
If you don't get a spot on the margin coverage, that's one thing
I stopped chasing short out of spite
50 ETH is already enough for the dog farm to see me 😭
#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation? Wow, how did OKB rise so much?
He glanced at it—almost 88
This thing is no longer the platform token it once was—21 million
The total amount is as much as BTC, with X Layer's gas fees + Exchange OS staking and lock driving the market behind, with TVL nearly multiplying to $100 million in half a year. I just saw it and took it
45 state licenses, and formed a joint venture with ICE
Simply put: it used to be discount coupons; now it's the water, electricity, and coal on the chain
I've been watching for a while, and I think breaking 100 is a highly likely event. The next threshold is in the 125-160 range
The current location isn't cheap, but it's far from expensive. Follow
The 175 cm high point is still double the space
If it pulls back below 85, you might consider entering; you can also chase after it if it breaks through 95 with increased volume
This round is very likely to redefine OKB's valuation ceiling, $OKB The market was very rough today. SNDK fell 3.56%, SKHYNIX plunged 5.33%, and MU dropped 2.08%. The entire semiconductor sector is in turmoil. But ETH only fell by 0.41%, while BTC even rose by 0.61%. This differentiation does not happen randomly. Behind it lies a trend that many people have overlooked: the ETH/BTC exchange rate is quietly strengthening. 📊 ETH/BTC Exchange Rate: A Key Indicator Overlooked by Most People Conclusion: The ETH/BTC exchange rate has already shown clear signs of a bottom. Multiple technical indicators indicate that ETH/BTC is attempting to bottom and rebound. A weekly MACD is about to form a golden cross, which is one of the most important technical signals for the ETH/BTC exchange rate over the past year. What does it mean if the exchange rate confirms a reversal? This means: ETH may outperform BTC next. And it's consistently outstanding. When BTC rises 1%, ETH may rise by 2%. When BTC drops 1%, ETH may only fall 0.5%. This is the power of a stronger exchange rate. 📊 Looking at the market again: ETH's position is very delicate. The current ETH/BTC exchange rate corresponds to 0.02955. Although still in a long-term downtrend, a relatively stable bottom structure has formed in recent weeks. In recent weeks, every time the exchange rate falls to around 0.029, there has been clear buying interest. What does this indicate? This indicates that funds are quietly positioning long positions in ETH/BTC. They are betting on the coming months📊 On-chain data and chip structure
According to the weekly report on cnyes.com - On-chain data, the current chip structure is extremely extreme:
"Copper Wall and Iron Wall" Defense: At the single price level of $63,000, as many as 1.15 million BTC have accumulated (about 5% of total circulating supply). Including $62,000 in tokens, the total circulating supply accounts for 8%.
Order book imbalance: Large buy orders continue to accumulate in the 2% to 20% area below spot prices; Meanwhile, the sell orders above have significantly thinned. This indicates that the support below is very strong, while the resistance above is weak.
Reasons for market quiet: US Treasury yields are higher than crypto market arbitrage yields, causing institutional funds to take a wait-and-see approach, resulting in sluggish spot market turnover.
Currently, both news and data show that selling above $64,000 is thin. The main force is very likely to create a 'false breakout' to hunt short stop-losses above $64,400 or even $65,000, then quickly fall back into the consolidation range. This is not yet a bull market, but a bullish incentive
$BTC $ETH The Middle East line is tense again: the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are escalating each other, the Yemeni navy claims it has foiled a Red Sea oil tanker attack, and US Treasury Secretary Bescent even declared that "the Strait of Hormuz will gradually lose importance over the next two years," hinting that energy should switch to underground pipelines to bypass this chokepoint. Why should the crypto community take a look—when tensions arise, the chain of oil prices, inflation, and rate hike expectations is reignited, and these three are precisely what suppress risk assets. Right now, the market is somewhat desensitized to the Middle East, but desensitization doesn't mean no risk; when a black swan appears, it never gives a heads-up. Those who know, understand—leave some room for positions.Tonight, this non-farm payroll bullish candlestick looks great, but don't get carried away.
Simply put, this is a typical case of "short squeeze + sentiment recovery"—it's not real money coming in. New funds from on-chain and ETF sides haven't caught up; after the short market is exposed for a while, it's gone, and the underlying liquidity gap remains—the billions of yuan outflows from ETFs in June haven't healed yet.
So I don't plan to move my $BTC short position for now, let alone stop loss.
A single bullish candlestick can't change your faith; a reversal depends on CPI coordination and whether ETFs can see net inflows for several consecutive days. Before these signals appear, just act as a rebound.
The market loves to perform, let it perform, and I'm waiting 🎬 Trump has taken action to remove the Fed governor, citing "serious dereliction of duty." Don't rush to take political sides; from a trading perspective, focus on one thing: if central bank independence is truly torn open, it means future rate cuts may not be due to economic needs, but because someone wants them. This kind of "politically held loose" short-term benefits risk assets but long-term mines for inflation and dollar credit. It's too early to bet heavily on either direction; my approach is to note this variable first and watch the long-term reaction to U.S. Treasuries. Trading isn't about who reacts faster, but who makes fewer mistakes.For the storage sector, making a cross-market comparison is more interesting than looking at a single candlestick: on the US side, SanDisk and SK Hynix fell for the second consecutive day, and DRAM spot prices are also retreating; But the A-share storage chain is moving in the opposite direction, with brands like 'Lanqi' closing higher against the trend. The same industry chain, two markets, two sentiments means this decline is more like a position squeeze on the US side than a demand-side falsification—if fundamentals really shift, A-shares won't stand alone. To judge whether storage has peaked, you look at DRAM contract prices and vendor guidance, not a drop in US stocks on a given day. Answering what this means is more important than restating what happened.$DOGE Intersection with the Game Economy: Is there an in-game economy that uses DOGE as the medium of circulation? Or is there overlap between the DOGE community and the gamer community?
When it comes to $DOGE and gaming, these two actually grow out of the same cultural soil. What is the essence of meme coins? They turn internet memes into money. What is game economics? They turn virtual achievements into tokens. Players on both sides don't see any difference at all; both use pixels and consensus to set prices.
Look at the in-game economy over the years: Steam community item trading, CSGO skin patches, Robux on Roblox, and even earlier World of Warcraft's gold black market. Players have long been used to the idea that "not fiat currency can be used as money." So if DOGE wants to enter the gaming scene, the education cost is almost zero. In fact, some have done it. In the early days, YouTube streams heavily used DOGE for tips, some indie gaming platforms and small esports tournaments used it as prize pools, and tipping culture on Reddit and X overlapped heavily with the gaming streaming community. If you ask if any mainstream AAA games directly use $DOGE as their circulating currency, there aren't, but the reason isn't that players don't accept it—it's that game developers themselves don't dare to touch it—regulatory gray areas combined with price fluctuations mean big players prefer to issue their own closed tokens.
What's truly interesting is the overlap among the crowds. The core profiles of DOGE holders and gamers are almost the same: young, mostly male, online-dwelling, naturally distrustful of authoritative financial systems, but extremely loyal to their community's "internal currency." Gamers were the first to understand that "scarcity can be coded," and also the first to accept that "what you grind for is valuable." This perception can be applied to DOGE without any obstacles.
So DOGE might be more fitting than any other coin for the concept of "gamified finance." It doesn't pretend, doesn't talk about revolutionary technology—it's all about playing. This is precisely the advantage—when finance becomes like a game, the token with the lowest entry barrier wins. The problem is the opposite: games may fade away, but memes will too. If DOGE really wants to catch this trend, it doesn't need to post memes, but to have a few standout gaming scenarios, like tipping, esports, or a blockbuster blockchain game using it. So far, the fit is perfect, but the execution is zero.Another big deal in the AI application layer: legal AI company Harvey reportedly launched a new round of financing, with its valuation pushing to $15.5 billion. Don't underestimate this—in the past two years, AI funding has mainly been invested in computing power and large model foundations, but now it's clearly shifting toward 'vertical applications.' Scenarios like law, healthcare, and finance—high unit prices and strong professional barriers—are being proven to be profitable and practical directions. This is good news for the entire AI industry chain: once applications are running smoothly, upstream computing power and storage needs will have long-term support. The narrative shifts from 'competing on parameters' to 'competing on implementation'—this is a sign that this cycle is beginning to mature. Let's see.$BTC The real issue is not how much it drops, but that no one wants to chase above 65,000
BTC quickly surged from 64,111 to 65,357 in this round, but the 15-minute structure has already given a clear signal: after the price hit a new high, there was no sustained incremental buying.
Now the price has returned to around 64,600, having already broken below MA5, MA10, and MA20, with the short-term moving averages beginning to diverge downward; 65,000 has shifted from support to resistance again. The first downside is around 64,530, followed by the previous low around 64,100.
But I believe this pullback cannot be judged solely by technical aspects.
In the latest market environment, tensions in the Middle East have flared up again, oil prices have strengthened, and risk assets are once again facing disruptions from inflation and safe-haven trading; BTC also briefly fell below $65,000 again.
Interestingly, liquidity has not completely turned bearish. Recently, continuous inflows have reappeared in the US spot BTC ETF market, indicating institutional demand is recovering, but the price still cannot effectively hold above 65,000. This precisely shows that what the market lacks now is not "buying interest," but buying that is enough to change expectations.
So my assessment of the current BTC is:
A new short-term game zone is forming between 64,500 and 65,350.
Holding 64,500, today's downward move can still be understood as a pullback after a breakout; Only by reclaiming 65,000 and breaking through 65,350 can it be considered a true regain of strength.
Conversely, if 64,500 is breached, especially if it falls below 64,100 again, then this time 65,357 is likely just a liquidity rally rather than the start of a new trend.
The most important thing to watch now is not whether BTC will rebound, but rather:
ETF funds have already started to return, so why hasn't BTC broken through 65,000?
The answer to this question may be more important than guessing the next candlestick.Gold hits new highs every day, US AI hits new highs, Hong Kong large models rise 25% in a day, but crypto is the only one lying flat. In the comments, people always shout "$BTC, catch up immediately"—what are you trying to add? Risk assets rise but they don't rise; safe-haven assets rise but don't rise; risk-on and safe-haven assets don't rise either. This isn't building momentum, it's called having no one wanting it for now. Retail investors love to use "catch-up" to justify their long positions, but the market never owes anyone a catch-up rally. Don't use wishes as analysis; first see if funds are coming in, then discuss direction.A macro risk worth noting: Trump officially initiated the process to remove Fed Governor Cook on the grounds of "serious dereliction," and was also reported to have frequent calls with Chairman Wash. On the surface, it's personnel news, but in essence, the market is trying to reprice the "Fed independence discount." Interestingly, interest rate futures are not panicking at this moment—still pricing in a December rate hike, indicating the market is temporarily treating it as political noise rather than a policy shift. What really needs to be watched is: once independence expectations loosen, long-term Treasuries and gold will react first, with crypto just following the trend. First, look at 2-year and 10-year yields; don't rush to conclusions about BTC.#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? I lean more toward the conclusion: this drop is due to expectations, not the logic of the AI memory industry.
The recent volatility after the financial reports of storage stocks is quite typical—when an industry has already been traded into a "super-cycle," good performance alone is no longer enough; what capital needs to see is guidance stronger than the very high expectations. Therefore, a post-report drop does not simply mean a fundamental reversal.
From the industry side, the logic remains quite rigid. Micron's latest financial report continues to emphasize the strategic value of memory in the AI era, and the company previously stated that demand for AI servers and traditional servers is still limited by insufficient DRAM and NAND supply; HBM4 has already entered a ramp-up phase.
What really deserves attention is a change:
AI is gradually shifting from "scarce computing power" to "scarce memory and data handling capabilities."
The larger the model, the longer the context, and the greater the inference scale, the higher the demand for HBM, DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs. In other words, the GPU handles the computation, but if data can't be fed, even the strongest GPU cannot fully unleash its performance.
So now, I won't judge the AI memory bull market just because of a few big bearish candlesticks following a financial report.
But at the stock level, you have to look at it separately from industry logic:
Industry prosperity ≠ stock prices always rise.
The larger the earlier gain, the more the growth in valuations is drawn up in advance. What storage stocks really need to verify next is not whether AI demand still exists, but how long the supply-demand gap can last, whether prices can continue to rise, and whether new capacity will ultimately change the cycle.
Therefore, my definition of this round of adjustments is closer to:
Industry trends remain stable for now; the capital market is shifting from transaction stories to transaction fulfillment capability.
This could actually mark the second phase of the AI memory market.
The next topic worth discussing is:
If AI computing power continues to expand, will the biggest bottleneck in the next phase still be the GPU, or will it already shift toward memory and storage?The narrative logic of this cycle has completely changed, and $SEI uses the most direct way to show what liquidity pickiness means. The previous widespread price hikes with rising tides no longer exist; instead, extreme differentiation has taken place. Instead of scattering money, funds are concentrated on assets with solid fundamentals, real users, and sustained net inflows. The distinction between strong and weak is so clear that it's impossible to ignore, and the weak are even losing the right to follow the trend and rebound. Just looking at a few key numbers shows just how brutal the trend is. $BTC currently accounts for over 55%, absorbing the vast majority of incremental funds in the market. $ETH secures the second spot thanks to institutional channels, with the number of daily active addresses in the $SOL ecosystem increasing by nearly 80% compared to the beginning of the year. This can't be explained by emotion; it's capital voting with its feet. Those still fantasizing about their rise will only face a downturn after liquidity runs dry. High-beta assets still have explosive potential. Emerging stocks like $SUI, $TON, $CORE, $GRASS, and $LAYER can rise far beyond the market once they attract incremental capital, but only if you have to withstand the same pullback. This is a momentum game, not a safe to win by lying down. On the other hand, coins like $LIT, $PUMP, $BLUR, and $NOT, which have long lacked capital support, are likely to remain stagnant until liquidity recovers. Bottom-fishing requires sufficient patience and discipline to cut losses. #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation? #财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 这条快讯分量不小：OpenAI 主动暂停了新模型 Astra 的发布，理由是「无法排除它具备关键性网络攻击能力」。这可能是头部实验室第一次因为安全风险给自己踩刹车。懂的都懂——当AI强到能自主搞网络攻击，故事就从「提效工具」变成「双刃武器」了。对加密圈的含义很直接：链上安全、私钥管理、智能合约审计这些赛道，接下来只会更值钱。技术往前跑一步，攻防这条暗线就厚一层。别只盯着涨跌，盯一眼底层在变什么。Here's a divergence signal: gold hits new all-time highs, approaching the 4340 level, silver strengthens in sync, and safe-haven funds are piling into precious metals; At the same time, $BTC remains completely unmoved. In the past, people loved to say "BTC is digital gold," but this week's data grounded that narrative—the safe-haven assets attracted by gold haven't spilled over to crypto. At the ETF level, you can see continuous net inflows in gold and silver ETFs, while BTC spot ETFs remain lukewarm. What does this mean: in current BTC pricing, risk-on and hedging switches haven't been switched off; it's more like a highly volatile marginal asset. Data won't play along with you.Uniswap has officially entered the token launch platform, completing a strategic extension from the "transaction backend" to the "issuance entry point."
On July 29, the "Launches" aggregator page was launched to connect to third-party launchpads, and on August 5, the dedicated platform Pools.trade was launched. On the first day, trading volume exceeded $150 million, with over 12,000 new tokens deployed. Uniswap's founder bluntly stated that the current launch pad fees are "predatory," and Pools.trade only charges standard LP fees.
While $BTC and $ETH continued to fluctuate within a range, and $BNB and $SOL were consolidating at key levels, $UNI emerged independently—rising from $2.3 in early June to $4.6 by the end of July, doubling in two months. After the fee switch was activated, protocol revenue buybacks and burned UNI, totaling 5 million coins. The UNI narrative is shifting from "governance tokens" to "cash flow assets."
However, the sustainability of the launchpad remains uncertain: of over 12,000 new tokens, the vast majority have already gone to zero, and the 7-day DEX trading volume has dropped by 32.81%. Whether Uniswap can use the launchpad to open a long-term value window remains to be seen by the market.
#Uniswap进军发射台, can UNI open up a new narrative? 记一条容易被划过去的硬货：贝莱德最新披露，截至6月底持有 SpaceX 5100万股A类股。机构在二级市场悄悄囤 pre-IPO 资产，这个信号比任何喊单都实在——聪明钱正在给「太空+AI基建」这条叙事提前卡位。SpaceX 这盘子的想象力不在火箭本身，而在星链的现金流，以及它给AI数据中心供电供网的卡位。散户能碰到的敞口有限，但叙事往哪走，得先知道大钱往哪站。保护好子弹，走着看。US July nonfarm payrolls were a clear surprise: new jobs **-23,000**, far below the expected +80,000, with a sharp downward revision in May and June combined; the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, 4.1% does not mean the job market is tightening again, as about 264,000 people have exited the labor force and the labor force participation rate has dropped to a multi-year low of 61.4%.
Therefore, this data overall remains dovish. After the market release, it quickly lowered its rate hike forecast for September. US Treasury yields and the weakening dollar initially reacted positively to BTC; However, employment was too weak, sparking concerns about economic growth, so BTC may experience repeated fluctuations of "trading easing first, then recession."
The July ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, indicating that the U.S. economy has not completely stalled. The real focus that will determine the Fed's next path will shift to the July CPI released on August 12.
Therefore, it is currently not simply interpreted as "falling unemployment rate = hawkish." A more accurate conclusion is: employment numbers have clearly deteriorated, participation rates have declined, policy pressure has turned dovish at the margin, but growth risks are rising. BTC is a short-term liquidity positive mixed with medium-term recession concerns. $BTC #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment beat inflation? Let's do a structural check-up of the crypto market after the non-farm payrolls. $BTC 24-hour flat near 64,500, with rates remaining mildly positive and OI at low levels, indicating that this round saw neither long positions adding leverage nor panic deleveraging—just reduced volume and wait-and-see. On the liquidation side, bears still suffer more losses; the short squeeze structure remains, but volume cannot support the trend. Coinbase has slightly discounted Binance, and US funds show no intention of rushing to join. In short: data tells you the market is waiting for the next macro variable, not choosing a direction. Watch your position size—don't be fooled by a single candlestick.[The Crown Prince's Journey to Break Even · Episode 1] Record from a huge loss of 5300U to starting over: What exactly happened to BEAT after three days of single-target fighting?
I plan to start a series of posts to fully document the real transaction recovery journey of the single owner "Crown Prince."
Today, I looked back at his previous trading history and finally found the reason behind his recent drastic change in trading style and significant principal shrinkage—the extremely brutal BEAT anti-trading battle from August 3~August 6.
📉 1. Heavy loss on-site data reconstruction (BEAT 2x isolated long position)
Order 1: Open position 3.5921 | Close position 1.7901 | Profit -2,881.77 U (-100.47%)
Order 2: Open position 3.4075 | Close position 1.7898 | Profit -2,415.43 U (-95.14%)
Order 3: Open position 3.3944 | Close position 1.7900 | Return -1.60 U (-94.73%)
⏱️ Resistance duration: From August 3rd, 18:00, tough on to August 6th, 15:45 (a full 70 hours!) ）
💸 Final result: Total actual loss from 3 orders: -5,298.8 USDT, coin price cut in half, position almost zero.
🔍 2. Why is this considered the starting point of the "road to breaking even"?
1. Breaking the Defense of Taking Orders, Severely Damaging Principal: Even if only 2x leverage was used, when faced with a one-sided decline (from 3.59 to 1.79), the stubborn resistance without stop-loss ultimately led to a devastating blow close to forced liquidation.
2. Shift in trading mindset and strategy: After suffering a heavy blow from the 5,300 U wave, you can see the change in his August 7 livestream—he no longer dares to hold out on big swings and instead starts doing extremely light, very short-term fast entry and exit (although small trades also face slippage and profit-loss issues).
💡 3. Risk control insights from live trading
2x leverage will also drop to zero: Many people think low leverage is safe, but if you don't set stop-losses or face price halving, 2x leverage can still wipe your account.
Holding out trades for 70 hours not only consumes a huge amount of capital but also disrupts all subsequent trading rhythms.
📌 Summary:
From a massive loss of 5,300 U to starting over with small capital, the road to breaking even is destined to be tough. I will continue to review and record his live trading changes to see if he can return to his peak with small capital strategies.
Do you think he can break even smoothly this time? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section! 👇
#实盘复盘#跟单#合约扛单1. Bybit sues North Korea and Lazarus Group, seeking $1.5 billion in stolen assets. Bybit has filed a civil lawsuit in the U.S. federal court for the District of Columbia, with defendants including North Korea, the North Korean Investigation Bureau, and Lazarus Group. The court also issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting the transfer or disposal of some of the stolen assets identified in the case. This injunction is an asset preservation measure and does not mean the case has a final judgment. 2. U.S. Senate postpones vote on Clarity Act to September. The U.S. Senate failed to vote on the Clarity Act before the August recess and plans to continue after reconvening in September. The bill still requires at least 60 votes in support, and unresolved controversies include ethical clauses for politicians' crypto businesses, stablecoin yields, and enforcement arrangements. 3. Polymarket modifies the settlement mechanism for short-term crypto contracts. Polymarket has changed the settlement method for short-term crypto prediction contracts from a single time point price to a time-weighted average price. The study shows that 821 accounts profited about $8.2 million during the settlement period classified as suspected of manipulation, but the research did not directly prove the involved traders had manipulative intent. 4. US July Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Fell by 23,000 US July Nonfarm Payrolls Fell by 23,000, while the market had expected an increase of 80,000; June job additions were also revised down from 57,000 to 20,000. After the data was released, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September fell from about 55%.At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on August 7, the U.S. nonfarm payroll data for July was released.
As soon as this data was released, the market was stunned.
In July, the U.S. nonfarm payroll actually decreased by 23,000, but the market expects an increase of 80,000. This is the first time since February this year that the U.S. job market has declined.
What's worse, the data for May and June was sharply revised downward, with a cumulative loss of another 103,000 people. On the surface, this is certainly a sign of economic weakness.
But at this critical moment, it has instead become a case of "bad news is good news."
Why is that?
Because once employment cools, the market will re-bet that the Fed may pivot later. After the news broke, Bitcoin did rebound quite quickly, but has the market really reversed?
As soon as the data was released, the dollar weakened, US Treasury yields fell, expectations for rate cuts grew, and risk assets rebounded accordingly.
Bitcoin also climbed from around $64,400, breaking through $65,000, reaching a high near $65,400. Gold also rose, with spot gold gaining more than 3% intraday.
The market is trading the same old logic again: "The Fed may not be so hawkish anymore." But there is a key point here—a loosening of rate cut expectations does not mean the tightening cycle is over.
Currently, the market is still divided on September policies. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September remains around 55%.
In other words, market sentiment has eased somewhat, but risks have not completely disappeared. Looking at on-chain data, some are bottom-fishing, and some are tooAlright, alright, $14 billion in buybacks, the nonfarm payrolls are already this rotten, and in the end, this thing 😅 just came out
$SNDK rose 4% before the market opened, then crashed sharply at the open, and $MU $SKHY followed suit
At first, I really didn't understand, but later I figured it out—14 billion was just a buyback authorization, not a company entering the market today with 14 billion
The upset in nonfarm payrolls is also not entirely positive. Expectations for rate cuts have risen, but concerns about economic slowdown and weakening corporate demand have also surfaced, making the strong cyclical storage sector more likely to be hit first
The most troublesome thing is that the previous price rose too fast. Now the market no longer looks at how much you earned, only watching whether you can accelerate further next quarter. No matter how good the performance is, if growth slows even a little, funds immediately treat it as a "cycle peak."
The pre-market gain of 4% can be instantly reversed, indicating that it's not a lack of good news, but that too many people are waiting to cash in at the top
There is only one thing that truly stabilizes storage—fluctuations 😅
$SNDK $MU $SKHY🚨 ALERT: At least 1,719 $BTC ($111 million) has been confirmed stolen in the Coldcard exploit so far, with total losses expected to exceed $130 million, according to Galaxy Research.On August 8, 2026, AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) U.S. stock market showed an overall volatile and weak trend. Below is a summary of the market based on the latest trading data:
📊 Core Market Data (as of the close on August 7)
Closing Price: $480.92, down 1.71% for the day.
Intraday Fluctuation: Opened at $497.60, reached an intraday high of $498.82, and dipped to a low of $476.06.
Market Cap and Valuation: Current total market capitalization is approximately $785.08 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 122.02.
📉 Recent Trend and Market Sentiment
AMD's recent stock performance was significantly influenced by its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report released after market close on August 4. Despite record-breaking earnings, the stock plunged nearly 9% in after-hours trading, then showed a volatile recovery pattern over the following trading days:
August 5: Stock dropped sharply by 7.04% due to earnings falling short of some aggressive investor expectations.
August 6: Market sentiment eased, stock rebounded 1.50%, closing at $489.28.
August 7: Stock came under pressure again, falling 1.71% to $480.92, indicating ongoing short-term disagreement between bulls and bears, with selling pressure holding some advantage.
🔍 Core Logic Behind the Market Movement
The current volatility in AMD’s stock is mainly due to the gap between "earnings beating expectations" and "market expectations being too high":
Strong earnings and a "sell the fact" reaction: AMD’s Q2 revenue reached $11.54 billion (up 50% year-over-year), with data center business doubling year-over-year, showing strong performance. However, given the stock’s significant rise over the past year, the market had already priced in high growth expectations, leading to some profit-taking after the earnings release.
Q3 guidance below peak expectations: The company’s Q3 revenue guidance is about $13 billion, higher than analyst consensus but below some Wall Street firms’ $14 billion bets, weakening short-term valuation support.
Surge in capital expenditure raises concerns: Q2 capital expenditure hit $808 million, nearly three times market expectations, mainly for AI capacity expansion. The market worries that such large short-term investments may impact profit margins.
Technical weakness: Technically, AMD’s stock is trading below both short- and mid-term moving averages, with multiple oscillators indicating oversold and sell signals, facing some downward pressure in the short term.
Overall, AMD’s fundamentals remain strong, but the current market is digesting the high expectations and the emotional impact of massive capital spending, with short-term movement mainly characterized by volatile consolidation. $AMD Ark increased its holdings in Circle, and CRCL entered the top ten holdings in ARKK
After Ark Invest continued to buy Circle and SpaceX, Circle became its flagship innovative ETF ARKK's eighth largest holding, with about 3.90% weight and a market value of approximately $233 million; the latest disclosure also shows that after the earnings report, Ark bought about 273,000 shares of Circle, closing at about $17.3 million. The market views favor the CRCL and USDC ecosystems. The focus is not on single purchase amounts, but on Cathie Wood's inclusion of Circle as a core position, indicating that stablecoin infrastructure is still being used by growth capital as an entry point for crypto compliance. For traders, CRCL is more likely to be driven by institutional position disclosures and USDC growth data in the short term, but after the earnings report, the stock price reacted lukewarmly, so chasing higher prices depends on whether further capital continues to increase holdings.
Source: Decrypt
#ARKK #CRCL #USDC #Crypto100WExpectations for a Fed rate hike in September are heating up
The market pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September rose to 56.5%, with a macro view biased toward crypto risk assets. For BTC and ETH, the key is not a single probability jump, but that US dollar rate expectations have once again suppressed risk appetite: if US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen in tandem, short-term leveraged funds will become more cautious, and alcoins will face more obvious pressure. In trading, focus on whether inflation and employment data continue to support the rate hike path; Before interest rate expectations cool, rebounds are more likely to encounter selling pressure.
Source: BlockBeats
#BTC #ETH #Crypto100WTonight, the non-farm payroll data is out, and the answer is revealed.
-23,000 was expected to increase by 80,000, a difference of 100,000 people; the previous value was still positive at 57,000, but this month it turned negative. But at the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. Wage growth was only 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%.
Employment is shrinking, unemployment is falling, and wages are slowing.
When these three signals are combined, it indicates a data quality problem.
Institutions are more sophisticated than us; they know the preliminary nonfarm payroll value is often "corrected." The monthly numbers are often unreliable, so they use this seemingly positive data to trap short positions. SanDisk's $SNDK dropped from 1326 to 1200, which is the best proof. Good news has emerged, but some are selling at high levels.
The non-farm payroll market announced ➕ the U.S. stock market opening, and the market reaction during this period was also quite interesting.
Gold $XAU had already risen above 4300 before the non-farm payrolls, surged to 4370 after data release, then pulled back to around 4340 after hitting resistance. My current view is that the trend hasn't changed—it's still a bullish structure.
Employment is weak→ interest rate hikes are cooling down→ the dollar is weak→ gold is rising. This chain is connected, but whether it can effectively break through the 4370 level is the key to the next step.
Compared to other orders, this long position on $SPCX was probably my happiest today. It surged from 115 to 129, up nearly 13%. On the day the lock-up was lifted, it rose 6%, and tonight it surged again in the non-farm payroll market. The negative news from the lock-up was digested, and institutions are willing to buy at this level.
But friends, the RSI has already surpassed 85, indicating short-term overbought demand. Be cautious when chasing highs.
If it breaks through around 130 with increased volume, space will open; If it fails to break through, it may pull back to near 120.
Then I really didn't understand SanDisk's SNDK wave. There was little fluctuation around the nonfarm payroll announcement, and US stocks plunged from 1326 to 1200 at the open, barely holding 1200. Good news came out, but the market was not buying it. Several consecutive positive news attempts failed to bring SanDisk back immediately. It can only be said that expectations for AI storage are still undergoing corrections, moving from a "supply shortage narrative" to a testing phase of "whether high expectations can be delivered."
Nonfarm Night is over, but the direction hasn't been fully set. Employment turned negative but unemployment is falling—this contradiction has made it hard for the market to reach consensus for now.
So the real decisive variable should be next week's CPI.
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 📉 $SNDK: Why Did the Stock Fall After a Huge Earnings Beat?
At first glance, the reaction looks confusing.
Q4 Revenue: $8.965B
Market Estimate: ~$8.4B
That's a significant beat.
So why did $SNDK sell off?
The answer is simple:
Markets trade expectations, not just results.
1️⃣ Good News Was Already Priced In
Sandisk delivered an impressive quarter, but investors were already expecting exceptional numbers after the stock's massive rally.
When expectations become extremely high, even excellent earnings can trigger “sell the news” behavior.
2️⃣ Forward Guidance Matters More Than the Rear-View Mirror
The real question for investors was:
“What's next?”
Sandisk guided fiscal Q1 revenue to approximately $10.3B-$10.8B, with the midpoint slightly below Wall Street's expectations.
So the market saw:
✅ Excellent Q4
⚠️ Very high expectations
⚠️ Forward guidance not strong enough to create another major upside surprise
That combination can trigger profit-taking.
3️⃣ This Is Still a Highly Cyclical Memory Business
Memory and storage companies can experience powerful earnings cycles driven by pricing, supply, demand and capacity conditions.
When a cyclical stock has already experienced an enormous repricing, investors become much more sensitive to signs that growth or margins may be approaching a peak.
4️⃣ The Market Doesn't Reward “Good Enough”
This is one of the most important lessons in trading:
Beat expectations → not necessarily bullish.
If the market expected a huge beat and the company delivers only a normal beat, traders can still sell.
Price reacts to the difference between expectations and reality, not simply whether the numbers are objectively good.
$SNDK #SNDK #Stocks #StockMarket #Earnings #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #Semiconductors #AI#
#DailyOrbit The Three Musketeers of Storage: First rise, then fall; rebound encounters obstacles
On the evening of August 7 (Eastern Time), the three major U.S. stock indices all opened higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.35% and the Nasdaq up 0.75%. The storage sector briefly strengthened before the market opened—SK Hynix $SKHYNIX rose over 6%, SanDisk $SNDK rose nearly 5%, and Micron $MU Technology gained nearly 4%.
However, after the market opened, the storage sector quickly turned negative, turning negative across the board. As of press time, Seagate Technology was down 5.59%, SK Hynix down 3.16%, Western Digital down 3.11%, and SanDisk down 0.61%. In after-hours trading, memory chip concept stocks strengthened again, with Western Digital up over 4%, Micron Technology and SK Hynix up 3%, and SanDisk up 6%.
Current market signal: The divergence between bulls and bears is intensifying
The after-hours rebound on August 8 indicates that some funds have started trying to bottom-fish. However, the intraday reversal indicates that selling pressure has not been fully released. Some analysts point out that after a correction, storage stocks are "stuck in an awkward position where prices are neither going up nor down." Polymarket forecasts show traders believe there is an 85.5% probability that Micron's stock will close above $700 by the end of the month, suggesting that this sell-off may have been excessive.
Performance "skyrockets" but stock prices plunge — this storage crash reveals the market's extreme sensitivity to high valuations and capital expenditure pressures after the AI frenzy. When "all the positive news has been exhausted" becomes consensus, no matter how impressive the numbers, it is hard to stop capital from exiting in phases.
#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 比特币行情更新 📈
如果你目前持有 $BTC 多单，可以考虑将止损上移至保本位（Break Even），并适当进行部分止盈，锁定部分利润。
接下来需要重点关注的是 $64,630–$65,620 阻力区间。如果比特币在传统金融市场收盘前仍无法有效突破该区域，那么周末进入震荡整理行情的概率将明显增加。
由于周末通常伴随着流动性下降、成交量萎缩，市场更容易出现来回扫荡和缺乏方向性的走势。
当然，以上仅为市场观察与个人观点。请始终按照自己的交易计划执行，并严格遵守风险管理原则。
祝各位交易顺利。🚀
$BTC
#DailyOrbit #财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future?
🔥SpaceX's 100 billion yuan unlock rebounds—is it a bottom signal or a trap for bullish inducers?
To be honest, I watched the market for a long time on August 6th. 911.5 million shares unlocked, with a market value over $100 billion. With a supply shock of this level before, a 10% drop in stock price would be considered a respectable move. But SpaceX rose 6% that day, with trading volume reaching 250 million shares, hitting a one-and-a-half-month high.
Even an old Chinese investor like me was surprised by this trend.
But after careful review, it turns out there are clues behind this.
[Wednesday's crash has already washed out the most panicked people]
The day before the lock-up was lifted, SpaceX had just released its first financial report. Revenue was 7.8 billion, exceeding expectations—looks good, right? But capital expenditure was 18.4 billion, up 5.5 times year-on-year, and AI investment was nearly 40% higher than analysts expected. Seeing this momentum, the market crashed directly, causing a 14% drop in a single day, with the stock price dropping to $108, breaking below the IPO price.
What does this mean? Those who should run, want to run, and are forced to quit—all have finished on Wednesday. On the day of the lock-up, all that remains are 'dead bulls' and those waiting to buy the dip. With selling pressure released early, the day of the lock-up actually becomes the point for short buying. There's a market rule that says, 'When bad news comes out there's good news,' SpaceX is a textbook example this time.
[But don't rush to shout for the bottom—the real test hasn't come yet]
This unlocking is just the first step in SpaceX's nine-phase phased release. Waiting in the queue includes: 319 million shares on August 20, about 700 million shares in September, about 700 million shares in October, and by December, the outstanding shares will surge from over 600 million shares now to 5.3 billion shares. The most intense is that in June 2027, Musk's holdings of over 6 billion shares will also be unlocked.
In other words, it's just the appetizer now; the main dish hasn't even been served yet. Morgan Stanley's target price of $300 is based on the fantasy of 100 billion in AI revenue next year. But right now, SpaceX's AI investment is a real cash burn, and revenue will only be realized in Q3 or even by the end of the year. Faced with a continuous supply of unlocked supply, it's extremely difficult for the stock price to surge all at once.
[Indirect Impact on Crypto Brothers]
On the surface, SpaceX has nothing to do with the crypto world, but in reality, it's quite connected.
First, Musk is the king of crypto traffic. If SpaceX's stock price remains sluggish, Musk's own wealth shrinks, and his energy and confidence in "selling products" on social media will be affected. Don't underestimate this—the Dogecoin rally in 2021 was directly tied to Musk's state.
Second, SpaceX is a heavyweight in the Nasdaq 100. Although its correlation with BTC is not as direct as Nvidia's, overall sentiment in the tech sector will be affected. If SpaceX continues to face pressure due to the unlock, the valuation of all growth stocks will be suppressed, making it difficult for BTC to remain unaffected.
Third, if SpaceX's AI narrative is disproven, it will also hurt AI concept coins in the crypto world. After all, SpaceX's AI investment is "real money burning," and many AI projects in crypto don't even have the ability to burn cash.
[My Opinion]
In the short term, SpaceX may see a technical rebound in the $100-110 range. Wednesday's sharp drop + retail bottom-fishing + short covering all contributed to the three-way push. But in the medium to long term, before the next batch of lock-up releases is implemented, the stock price is likely to remain weak and volatile.
For those trading brothers, now is not the time to chase SpaceX. If you hold coins related to Musk's concept (like DOGE), be extra cautious recently. SpaceX's stock price fluctuations may be the next trigger to trigger or suppress these coins.
The market is always like this; what you think of as negative news coming in may just be the beginning of a new round of strategic maneuvering.
How long do you think SpaceX's rebound will last? Let's talk in the comments.Here's a more humanized version with a stronger hook and a smoother flow:
"The jobs report just dropped—and honestly, the numbers look ugly."
🤗 Extra! Extra! 🤗
July's US nonfarm payrolls didn't just miss expectations—they completely flipped the script.
Markets were expecting +80,000 new jobs. Instead, payrolls contracted by 23,000, marking the first negative print in months. At the same time, inflation is still sitting stubbornly high at 3.8%.
Think about the position the Federal Reserve is in right now:
Cut rates too soon, and inflation could surge again.
Raise rates further, and the labor market could crack.
So what's left? Keep rates high, drain liquidity, and hope the economy survives the pressure.
And that's where Bitcoin enters the conversation.
The long-term picture isn't exactly bullish. Bitcoin thrives when liquidity is abundant and money is cheap. If the Fed stays trapped in "higher for longer," risk assets could continue to face headwinds.
But here's the twist: markets don't always react logically in the short term.
Bad economic data often sparks hopes that the Fed will eventually become less hawkish, which means BTC could actually bounce before reality sets in. A relief rally doesn't necessarily mean the macro environment has improved—it could simply be the market pricing in future expectations.
For me, nothing has fundamentally changed.
Until real monetary easing arrives, every rally feels more like noise than a new cycle. Patience is still the most valuable position.
I'm not chasing candles. I'll wait for the opportunity that makes sense—even if that means sitting on the sidelines and watching the show for a while longer.
#DailyOrbit BICO一周翻四倍：狂欢之下，风险暗涌
如果你最近打开行情软件，大概率会注意到$BICO这个名字。
过去一周，这个主打账户抽象和跨链消息传递的Web3基础设施代币，从约$0.0117起步，一度触及$0.0591的高点，一周涨幅超过400%，单日最高涨超75%。在8月7日的山寨币涨幅榜上，BICO高居前列。
暴涨背后有三重推手。第一，永续合约密集上线——Aster DEX和AlphaX DEX在一周内相继推出BICO合约产品，后者杠杆高达50倍且免手续费，迅速吸引热钱涌入。第二，逼空踩踏——暴涨前BICO空头头寸大量堆积，价格拉升迫使空头平仓回补，进一步推高价格，空头单日损失超百万美元。第三，叙事驱动——“跨链基础设施”和“账户抽象龙头”的故事被重新讲起，吸引资金跟风。
在BICO的带动下，整个山寨币市场也掀起波澜。$UB 周涨61%，$ADA 和 $ALGO 分别上涨24%和13%；$PUMP、$DODO、$WLD也交易活跃。$HYPE、$ENA、$LINK、$SOL同样位列热门榜单。Analysis of the source of KAITO's chip for selling off and fleeing
This refers to the recent pledge bullish rally followed by a large bearish candle downward. These selling funds fall into four categories:
1. Short-term contract long positions (accounting for the largest portion of this sell-off)
1. When the news came out, a large number of users rushed in to open long contracts, quickly pushing the price to 0.92+;
2. The coin is severely overbought in the short term, and long positions in the contract have accumulated large unrealized gains;
3. If the price stops hitting new highs, a large number of long positions take profits and close their positions;
Flat long contract = selling USDT to buy back coins, directly pushing the market down, closing positions consecutively, and pulling out a large bearish candlestick.
At the same time, some long positions were liquidated by stop-losses, and exchanges automatically closed positions for selling, further intensifying the decline (selling long positions with long selling).
2. Short-term profit-taking positions in the secondary market spot (spot on the exchange)
Spot traders who had been lying in wait at low prices before the good news released saw their tokens surge as soon as the staking announcement came out, immediately selling at high levels to cash out profits.
• These people held their tokens early on, either to stake or to gamble on news and good news for short-term trading;
• When positive news materializes, it's an opportunity to sell—no need to stake on-chain, just sell and exit on exchanges like OKY.
3. On-chain staking (a small portion) of existing users
Users who have already staked on the official website:
1. After the staking upgrade, some existing users are dissatisfied with the new staking rules and choose to initiate unlocking, withdrawing their tokens back to the exchange for sale;
2. Staking unlocking has a cooldown period; it won't all be sold out instantly, so it's a slow outflow, not the main force behind this big bearish candlestick.
4. Market makers/project custodians' liquidity pool chips (small amounts)
Market-making funds in the DEX liquidity pool on the Base chain may be bought back at high levels after a market surge, which also brings some selling pressure.
Key distinctions
✅ Not a large team unlock and dumping: This staking upgrade announcement did not release a large team unlock token, and the team did not unlock any new tokens.
This sharp drop is the result of short-term profit-takers fleeing, not the project team dumping shares.
Market surface phenomena correspond to this
1. Good news drives the market up → retail investors and short-term funds rush in to go long;
2. Without new funds continuing to take over, profit-taking positions collectively take profits and exit, directly triggering positive news and dumping the market;
3. This is what people often say in the industry: when good news appears, it is bad.
Supplement
Compared to BICO: BICO is the sector buzz in the sector, but no positive news has materialized, so it remains at a high level; KAITO saw the news land, and the hidden funds were immediately cashed out and fled, resulting in a large bearish candlestick.
If you plan to stake on-chain: Now you need to understand that staking earns rewards, but it cannot hedge against the risk of price drops. Even if you stake and lock your position, the coins will still fall.TRX is trading around $TRX 0.32758, showing sideways movement and building energy for its next big move.
📊 Chart Highlights
* Current Price: $TRX 0.32758
* Moving Averages:
* MA5: 0.32768
* MA10: 0.32735
* MA20: 0.32799
* 24h Range: High of $TRX 0.32853 / Low of $0.32641
* Recent Low Support: ~$0.32147 (Hit on 07/21/2026)
* Recent High Resistance: ~$0.33365 (Hit on 07/13/2026)
⏳ Historical Highs & Lows (Old Up & Downs)
To understand TRX's path, we look back at its major price swings:
* All-Time Low (ATL): ~$0.00078 (September 2017)
* Early Bull Peak: ~$0.30 (January 2018)
* All-Time High (ATH): ~$0.43 (December 2024)
* 180-Day Gain: Up +17.93%, showing steady strength over the long run despite short-term consolidation.
🔮 Short-Term & Best All-Time Predictions
1. Short-Term Target (Next 1–2 Weeks)
* Bullish Scenario: If TRX breaks above resistance at $0.3335, expect a quick pump toward $0.3450 – $0.3600.
* Bearish Scenario: If price drops below key support at $0.3215, it may retest $0.3100 before finding buyers again.
2. Best Prediction Of All Time (Long-Term)
* TRX has built a solid, long-term higher-low structure over the years. With strong utility as a settlement network for stablecoins, a breakout above its previous All-Time High of $0.43 could send TRX into price discovery toward $0.50 – $0.65 in the next major crypto bull cycle. Here's a more natural, engaging version with a stronger hook while keeping the core message intact:
🚨 Tonight's payroll report could decide Bitcoin's next $1,000 move—and most traders are looking the wrong way.
Everyone is asking the same question: after the non-farm payroll numbers come out, will Bitcoin explode higher or collapse?
My view: the odds favor weaker-than-expected data, but that doesn't automatically mean Bitcoin goes straight up. The more likely scenario is a sharp dip first, followed by a rebound. If you're chasing longs around $64,800, you might be walking into a trap.
Why the market is nervous
Economists expect roughly 83,000 new jobs in July, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. But some early signals are flashing warning signs.
Vanguard's estimates, based on retirement-account data, point to just 18,000 new jobs.
ADP reported only 44,000 private-sector jobs, far below expectations.
Several analysts now believe the risk is skewed toward a weaker labor market.
If payrolls disappoint, expectations for tighter monetary policy could fade, the dollar could weaken, and risk assets like Bitcoin may find support.
On the other hand, the upside surprise scenario shouldn't be ignored. Analysts at major banks have warned that a payroll number above 150,000 could revive fears of higher rates for longer, putting pressure on stocks and crypto alike.
What does the chart say?
Bitcoin is trading near $64,800, but short-term indicators are flashing caution.
The 1-hour RSI is already above 80.
The 15-minute RSI is around 86.
Price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band.
In other words, momentum is strong, but the market is stretched.
The most likely scenario: dip first, rebound later
My base case is simple:
Initial sell-off toward $64,000–$64,300 after the data release.
Support gets tested and confirmed.
Buyers step back in, pushing price toward $65,000–$65,500.
If payrolls come in dramatically below expectations, Bitcoin could even make a run toward $66,000.
The key level remains $65,000. Until bulls.
#DailyOrbit This week's BTC and ETH market analysis.
Previously, Dabing would rise and fall with its followers, but in the past two weeks, the situation has completely reversed.
ETH actively strengthened throughout, hitting 1950 several times, just a breath away from the 2000 mark. However, BTC was repeatedly pressured at the 67000 mark, unable to break through with increased volume, effectively halting Ethereum's upward momentum.
Let's first reveal the core underlying logic: in this round of rate cut expectations, capital preferences have completely shifted.
BTC is digital gold, serving as a safe-haven ballast. When rate cut expectations first emerged, people's first reaction was to hold onto Bitcoin for safe havens and preserve value. But once the probability of rate cuts is certain and liquidity easing expectations materialize, speculative funds immediately move to highly elastic assets, with ETH being the first choice.
ETH is pegged to the Nasdaq, maximizing growth attributes, and is much more sensitive to changes in US dollar and US Treasury yields than BTC. In an accommodative environment, incremental funds naturally favor Ethereum.
Looking at institutional capital flows, the divergence is visible to the naked eye.
Recently, BTC ETFs have occasionally seen phased outflows. Many institutions have reduced positions at high levels to cash out, with a large amount of previously trapped positions + profit-taking positions piling up around 67,000. Every time it approaches, selling pressure immediately bursts out, leaving bulls with no confidence to rush in all at once.
In contrast, ETH saw continuous net inflows from spot ETFs, BlackRock's staked ETH funds kept attracting funds, and with over one-third of Ether staked and locked up, the circulating tokens in the market were shrinking. Once buyers entered, resistance to the rally was minimal, which is the fundamental reason for its stronger performance.
Another key point: funds are rotating from BTC to ETH, turning Bitcoin into a liquidity reservoir.
The current strategy for big players and whales is simple: hold BTC as a base position, and use the freed-up funds to invest in Ethereum, Layer 2, and DeFi ecosystems. BTC is only responsible for stabilizing the market fundamentals, no longer leading offensives. Without a breakout from Bitcoin with high volume to boost overall market sentiment, even if Ethereum has strong momentum, it won't dare to go its own way.
This is why ETH, despite its strong momentum, has repeatedly failed to break through the 2000 mark.
The emotional anchor for the entire crypto market remains Bitcoin. Bitcoin has not broken above 67,000, and overall market confidence is lacking. Major funds are reluctant to go long on Ethereum, fearing a sudden drop in Bitcoin and a complete collapse. Therefore, every time Ethereum rises to a critical resistance level, funds actively withdraw and wait.
A brief summary of the current market situation:
BTC: 67,000 is a life-or-death hurdle for bulls; if you can't break through, overall market sentiment is unlikely to fully recover. Short-term support at 64,500 holds, holding within the range; if it breaks below it, it will weaken directly.
ETH: The logic of independent strength remains unchanged. 1900 is the dividing line between strength and weakness. As long as this level is not broken and the strong pattern holds, the first resistance above 1955 is zero. As long as Bitcoin's volume increases and breaks above 67,000, ETH breaking through 2,000 is within minutes.
Here's a straightforward word to everyone: at this stage, don't cling to BTC and wait to take profit. The structural market has arrived, with BTC holding the base and ETH making profits. For future operations, prioritize whether BTC can break through 67,000 and increase ETH positions accordingly; Bitcoin continues to fluctuate under pressure, so Ethereum is only suitable for buying on dips and never chasing highs.$SPCX Just made an unlock date chart,
1. SpaceX Core Unlock Dates and Circulation Changes Table
Instead of the usual 180-day unified lock-up period, SpaceX adopted a phased unlocking rule. As of December 8 this year, the proportion of tradable shares will increase from less than 5% at the time of IPO to about 40%.
2. Analysis of whether it is worth bottom-fishing and buying right now
SpaceX has pulled back nearly 50% from its IPO high ($225.64), and its current stock price (about $115) has fallen below its IPO price of $135. The market is currently showing a clear divergence between bulls and bears: "institutional risk aversion and retail buying the dip." Whether it's worth buying depends on your investment horizon and your judgment of the following core logic:
1. Core Logic of Bottom-Fishing Support (Bullish Factors)
Starlink has strong "self-sustaining" capabilities: Starlink is currently SpaceX's only stable profitable segment, with Q2 revenue of $4.29 billion, user base doubling to 12 million, and an operating margin of 38.6%, forming a safety cushion for the company's value.
The rare long-term narrative of "aerospace + AI": SpaceX boasts world-leading commercial rocket launch capabilities, low Earth orbit satellite networks, and integrated space-ground AI computing capabilities. Retail investors generally view the current decline as a short-term adjustment driven by sentiment and are optimistic about its long-term explosive potential.
Historical unlocking patterns and insider reluctance to sell: historical data shows that the first batch of shares often forms bottoms suitable for buying. Moreover, due to the sharp drop in current stock prices, most early investors are still in a floating profit state even at current prices, but their willingness to sell is not strong, and actual supply entering the market may be lower than expected.
2. Core Risks to Watch Out For (Bearish Factors)
Massive AI capital expenditures raise cash flow concerns: Q2 capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion (far exceeding expectations), with the vast majority invested in AI computing infrastructure. The market is concerned that Starlink's profits may not be able to sustainably cover the massive investment, and that the profit realization cycle will be extended.
Selling pressure from unlocking has not yet been fully released: August 6 was only the first wave of unlocking, with multiple rounds of rolling unlocking and large-scale unlocks following Q3 earnings reports continuing into December. Against the backdrop of continuous supply expansion, short-term stock price volatility is extremely high, and the rebound lacks sustained catalyst.
Valuation return and bearish pressure: Early listing overdrew forward expectations, and current valuations have entered a digestion phase. Meanwhile, short positions continue to rise (accounting for over 30% of circulating shares), and bears have profited heavily from recent declines, while short-term stock prices still face downward pressure.
3. Investment recommendation summary
Short-term traders: Blind bottom-fishing is not recommended. In the short term, the unlocking window, capital expenditure pressures, and the game of short-selling funds will continue to suppress the stock price. Until the selling pressure from the unlock is fully released and AI business returns become clear, the stock price is highly likely to remain in a wide range or continue to test the bottom.
Medium- and long-term investors: If they are optimistic about the long-term industry narrative of commercial aerospace and space-ground integrated computing power, the current valuation correction may provide a window for gradual dips. However, two key indicators need to be closely monitored: first, whether Starlink's profitability can continue to improve to hedge R&D investment; second, whether the AI computing power business can gradually generate positive cash flow.I still maintain this view. As long as it's still a bear market, August won't be a chance to rise. Historically, only 2023 saw a rise in August when it wasn't a bear market; the rest were downward. Although recent data is positive, it hasn't shown much of a rise. These data don't mean the Fed will immediately pivot. If inflation eases, the Fed might pivot, but since inflation data hasn't been released yet, no one knows who will win."Tonight's non-farm payroll report could decide whether Bitcoin breaks $65,000—or sends late buyers straight into a trap."
Everyone wants to know the same thing: after the jobs data drops, will Bitcoin explode higher or collapse?
My view: the most likely scenario is a sharp dip first, followed by a rebound. At current levels around $64,800, chasing longs doesn't offer an attractive risk-to-reward. Patience may pay far better than FOMO tonight.
The market expects roughly 83,000 new jobs in July, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. But beneath the surface, warning signs are appearing.
Vanguard's estimates, based on retirement-account data, suggest job growth could be as low as 18,000. Meanwhile, the latest ADP report showed only 44,000 private-sector jobs added, far below expectations. If the official numbers disappoint, expectations for further tightening could fade, the dollar may weaken, and risk assets such as Bitcoin could find room to recover.
There's another side to the story.
JPMorgan warned that a strong report—above 150,000 jobs—could push the S&P 500 down nearly 2%, as investors would price in higher interest rates for longer. With market consensus sitting just above 80,000, many traders believe the downside surprise is more likely.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is already looking stretched. The 1-hour RSI is above 80, while the 15-minute RSI sits near 86, both signaling overbought conditions. Price is also hugging the upper Bollinger Band, with $65,000 acting as major resistance.
That is why the higher-probability setup looks like this:
• Initial sell-off toward $64,000–64,300 to test support.
• If buyers step in, a rebound toward $65,000–65,500 becomes possible.
• A significantly weaker-than-expected report could even trigger a move toward $66,000.
But until Bitcoin breaks $65,000 with strong volume, blindly chasing longs could be a costly mistake.
The biggest money isn't made by predicting the first move—it's made by waiting for the market to reveal its hand
#DailyOrbit