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Guys, I've opened too many times again. The nonfarm payroll data for May and June has been significantly revised downward.
To put it simply, the actual situation of U.S. employment in May and June is somewhat worse.
In May, nonfarm payrolls were revised down from 172,000 to 129,000, a 25% decrease.
In June, nonfarm payrolls were revised down from 57,000 to 20,000, a 65% reduction.
In July, nonfarm payrolls were -23,000.
The Fed may not raise rates before the midterm elections or even until the end of the year.
Bee's theory is that the Department of Labor was working hard to cooperate with Trump's midterm elections, causing a large discrepancy in nonfarm payroll data early on.
As the midterm elections approach, further downward revisions to the data create an environment and atmosphere for the Fed to avoid raising interest rates, or even cut rates.
Of course, this is just a 'pubic hair' theory, without any evidence. People just treat it as Brother Bee telling stories, grabbing attention, and trying to attract traffic.
However, it is true that employment data has been significantly revised downward, and the downward trend in U.S. employment is also a fact.
On July 30, Bee's post mentioned that Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have all clearly announced upcoming layoffs......Today, the CPI was implemented
CPI came out today, the market breathed a sigh of relief, but BTC still hovered around 63,000. Interestingly, in September, traders raised the probability of the Fed holding steady to 60%. What does this mean? Inflation hasn't exploded, but it's not completely cold either; rate cut expectations have been pushed back. BTC is an asset that depends on liquidity expectations the most; it keeps grinding before the boots are even hit. How did you handle this wave of data today?我止损了，狗庄你牛逼$SNDK
刚点了平仓，手有点抖。均价1227的空单，扛到1380，整整150个点，10倍杠杆，浮亏从-45%滚到快爆仓。最终还是没扛住。
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复盘一下
价格一路突破MA5、MA10、MA20，均线全部向上发散，多头排列一目了然。日内摸到1388.60，盘口买盘73%对卖盘27%，资金费率负得离谱——所有信号都在说"别空了"，我却还在指望回调。
止损设在1388上方，价格触发的瞬间，反而松了口气。
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教训
扛单是病，得治。
从1227到1380，中间有无数次机会可以小亏离场，每次都告诉自己"再扛一下，马上回调"。结果呢？回调没等来，等来的是更大的亏损。
止损不是亏钱，是花钱买教训。这笔学费交得值不值，看接下来能不能长记性。
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狗庄，这局你赢了，咱们下局见。
$BTC $ETH
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 Why is it difficult for BTC to break out into an independent trend after the CPI release?
Many traders expect the crypto market to develop an independent trend separate from the US stock market after the CPI data is released, but this is currently very challenging.
The current market capital structure dictates that incremental funds in the crypto space heavily depend on the risk appetite of the US tech sector. As long as the Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors continue to fluctuate, BTC and ETH will find it hard to sustain a persistent one-sided rally.
Another easily overlooked signal: during this round of fluctuations, the BTC/ETH ratio remains high. This means the mainstream capital view still treats Bitcoin as a defensive base holding, only allocating small positions in Ethereum to speculate on its volatility. Under this capital structure, it is difficult for ETH to consistently outperform BTC in a strong trend.
Simple position review:
$BTC 63800 is the first support, 64500 is short-term strong resistance; repeated pressure will continue to grind the range;
$ETH 1890 support, 1940 resistance; to open upward space, a volume breakout above resistance is necessary.
Risk reminder: volatility will increase during the data window, so contract leverage should be reduced first. Frequent spikes in the choppy market make heavy positions prone to being repeatedly stopped out. BTC 상승에도 알트코인 개별 급락이 병행되는 혼조세, 시장은 과연 매도 압력을 소화 중인가 아니면 국지적 포지션 청산이 시작된 것인가. 원문 기준 BTC는 63,666달러로 0.48% 하락했고, ETH는 1,882달러로 0.48%, SOL은 76.39달러로 0.49% 각각 상승했다. DOGE는 3.78%, XRP는 0.89%, OKB는 0.22% 오르며 강세를 유지했다. 반면 BICO는 7.03%, ACE는 13.75%, DUCK는 19.93%, CARDS는 5.44%, SPURS는 1.77% 급락해 종목별 수익률 편차가 극단적으로 갈렸다. 표면적으로는 시장이 동반 하락하지 않았다. DOGE, SOL, XRP, SLX, PEOPLE, PENGUSDT 등은 상승을 지켰고, 이는 자본이 암호화폐 시장을 완전히 이탈한 것이 아니라 최근 급등 종목에서 차익 실현이 발생하면서 상대적으로 덜 오른 종목이나 특정 테마로 재배분되는 국면으로 해석할 수 있다. 다만 알트코인 일부 종목의 하락 폭이With the CPI final figure, the market has officially entered the 'expectations vacuum period'
The US July CPI data perfectly matched market expectations, with no unexpected surprises or severe inflation scares.
Many mistakenly believe that a one-sided rally will start as soon as the data is released, but they overlook a key point: once the biggest macro suspense disappears, the market shifts from "trading expectations" to "verifying the sustainability of funds."
History repeatedly shows: a neutral CPI environment makes it difficult to generate sustained large-scale rallies. Liquidity expectations are stable, downside space is sealed, but lacking incremental positive momentum to drive large-scale capital attacks, the market naturally tends to fluctuate within a range.
Looking at the market map, the divergence between $BTC and $ETH continues to emerge. In the short term, ETH has the advantage in elasticity, but remember, high elasticity is a double-edged sword; Once bullish funds weaken, the pullback will also be greater than Bitcoin's.
Additionally, capital attention is quietly shifting, with sentiment at the US stock market opening becoming a new anchor point tonight. The memory chip sector is experiencing multiple news catalysts, with sharp divergences between bulls and bears. Stocks like SNDK and MU are news-driven recovery, so do not mistake short-term sentiment rebounds for trend reversals.
Trading Insights: The biggest taboo in a volatile market is chasing gains and selling losses; pulse rallies are mostly short-term capital games. Patiently wait for key support levels before acting.US July CPI Brief Review | Inflation remains sticky, and rate cut expectations continue to be in contention 📊
[Core Data]
✅ Overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4% (previous 3.5%), month-on-month +0.1%
✅ Core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year (previous 2.6%), month-on-month +0.2%
Inflation has edged down, but core values remain strong month-on-month, still falling short of the Fed's 2% target.
🔍 Driver teardown
▪️ Energy prices are declining, continuing to drag down overall inflation readings
▪️ Food inflation remains moderate
▪️ Housing rents remain the biggest drag, with a slow pace of decline and strong sticky inflation
▪️ Server-side wage resilience remains, and inflation is unlikely to decline quickly
💡 Market analysis
This data basically meets expectations, further lowering the probability of an immediate rate cut in September.
It would take several consecutive months of weakening core CPI month-on-month for the real rate cut window to open.
📈 Assets have a simple logic
▪️ Stubborn inflation → delayed rate cuts have made US dollar and US Treasury yields likely to strengthen, weighing on gold and growth assets
▪️ Inflation continues to cool→ expectations for rate cuts return, which is positive for risk assets and gold
⚠️ Risk Points: Middle East tensions can disrupt oil prices and could rebound at any time to drive up inflation.
👉 Key focus going forward: core CPI month-on-month, housing rent, crude oil prices, and PCE prices.
The above is only a macro logical exchange and does not constitute any investment adviceBTC multiples get worse with each round, but certainty is worth a fortune.
2011: 3 million times
2013: 580 times
2017: 130 times
2021: 22 times
2025: 8 times
Entering at 60,000 yuan only doubles at the previous high, so the room for imagination is indeed limited. If it really drops to 40,000, the previous price is three times higher, and the lead is four times higher, then the fish body is enough to eat.
But don't forget: knockoffs will be wiped out, exchanges will run away, MEME will hit zero overnight, $ICP dropped from 700 to 2 dollars.
$BTC From $32 to $126,000, fourteen years—every bear market washes through, and the next round hits new highs.
The multiplier is low because it has turned from a lottery ticket into an asset.
Institutions treat it as digital gold—not relying on multipliers to survive, but not dying on it.
Criticizing it for having low multipliers is right. Saying it lacks certainty is foolish.
My strategy: Don't crash to over 40,000, not move an inch.
If the price really hits, just go all-in with your eyes closed. $OKB Keep a reserve position, and the knockoff will use some spare money to short-sell and play around.
It's this kind of drive—at worst, you just miss your mark.
Do you think I'll miss out? 😂
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#新手必看: Everything you need is here
#特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大, BTC holdings declined Evening Plan:
Macro CPI data was delivered as scheduled, and after the positive news materialized, the market quickly shifted to a "buy expectation, sell facts" trend. BTC encountered strong selling pressure near the 64,500 range; after bulls failed to surge, bears quickly took over the market, causing the price to plunge from the high volume down to around 63,300, with a one-way correction of over 1,100 points. Although the current market is attempting a pullback near 63,500, the rebound is strong and there is insufficient follow-up capital, resulting in a very weak sideways recovery.
On the 1-hour level, the MACD maintained a death cross with widening downward openings, the green bars (bearish momentum) continued to increase in volume, and the RSI has entered a weak range with no signs of stopping or slowing downward. The risk of inertia downward remains.
The short-term candlestick pattern shows a bearish downward trend, constrained by the dynamic resistance of the MA5 and MA10, and has now broken through several short-term moving averages. The moving average system has turned at a high level and diverged downward, forming a bearish alignment. The rebound at 64,500 was followed by significant volume growth, confirming this level as a recent strong top.
The first support below is the psychological level at 63,000; if it breaks down, the downside space will open, with retracement targets looking toward the 62,500 area; Resistance above is concentrated in the 63,800 - 64,000 turnover band.
Given the overall bear-dominated structure remains unchanged, short-term strategies mainly follow the trend and sell on rallies:
Reference range: Rebound to the 63,800 - 64,000 area to look for pressure signals and short selling in batches.
Risk Control Defense: Defend above 64200.
Downside target: Aim for a break below 63,000; if volume rises and it breaks below, further downside may reach 62,500.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains #特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大, and BTC holdings have dropped by $BTC $ETH [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh bluntly said Strategy is selling coins again, this time with 1,690 tokens, marking its third consecutive week of selling. The once "never sell" myth is now completely over.
Let's first look at the specific numbers for this week. In the week of August 10, Strategy sold 1,690 BTC at an average price of $64,262, cashing out $109 million. Over six weeks, it sold a total of 6,916 BTC, cashing out $429 million. But selling coins was at a loss: the average holding cost was $75,385, the selling price was $64,262, resulting in a single loss of about $18.8 million.
Where did the money go? It was all spent on repurchasing STRC preferred shares. Meanwhile, Strategy is raising funds by issuing additional common shares, and as of August 9, its cash reserves have piled up to $4.65 billion.
Selling coins on one hand, issuing additional shares on the other, hoarding cash on the other—doing all three things at once. Would you say this is faith, or is it just settling accounts?
In the corporate treasury track, the mindset has completely diverged.
On the Strategy side, unable to withstand the pressure from preferred stock dividends, it is selling at a loss. On the other hand, Strive increased its holdings by 6,236 BTC in Q2, with cumulative holdings surpassing 20,000. Bitmine is also continuously increasing its ETH holdings, staking nearly 4.9 million ETH, with an expected annualized staking income of about $247 million.
One is selling, two are buying. Corporate treasuries have shifted from a one-way narrative of "buy only, not sell" to a diversified pattern of increasing holdings, selling, buybacks, and hoarding cash.
When the "Bitcoin central bank" starts treating coins like ATMs, this once most important demand engine is stalling. But differentiation itself is creating new opportunities; buying has not disappeared, only players have changed. Pharaoh still says: good orders are made by waiting. Whales are rebalancing; whether you follow the crowd or wait for an opportunity, you choose. $ETH $BEAT $SOL #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate treasuries are diverging The Russian central bank quietly opened a door but only opened its doors to BTC, ETH, and USDT. Do you know what that means? The main background of this new rule is: non-qualified investors can spend up to 300,000 rubles (just over $3,000) per year to buy crypto assets, and they can only touch three things—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether. The threshold is not high, but the signal is clear: Russia is giving crypto assets a "legal but limited" position. I stared at this news for a while, and my first reaction wasn't "Russians can finally buy coins," but rather: this is actually a structural confirmation of sector strength. - Russia's coin selection logic: large market cap, long pricing history—this is basically the exclusive label for BTC and ETH - altcoins are completely excluded, even Solana and BNB are not on the list - USDT included shows regulators focus on stablecoins' "channel value" rather than speculative value From the perspective of sector rotation, this conveys a subtle preference: even if a window is opened in emerging markets, regulators still choose "blue-chip assets." This is highly consistent with the choices made by European and American institutional funds over the past two years—big money wants certainty, not flexibility. For BTC, this is yet another "national-level" default endorsement. Even a small 300,000 ruble scale reinforces a narrative: Bitcoin is transforming from a marginal asset into a "regulatory-acceptable reserve asset." ETH is similar, singled out,The Hormuz incident seems more and more like a double act.
Tonight, Trump made another bold claim, saying the U.S. has "complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz, calling the blockade a "wall of steel," and mocking Iran for having no navy or air force.
Just a few days ago, it was "close to reaching an agreement," U.S. officials claimed it would be signed "soon," and Trump himself said "overall progress is good." And what was the result? Iran's foreign minister directly contradicted him—we only negotiated with Oman, with no negotiations with the U.S. Isn't that awkward?
The current situation is as follows: Iran and Oman are indeed close to reaching an agreement on the technical level. The coordinates for the new shipping route have been set, and ships entering the Persian Gulf will go through Iran-controlled waters, while those leaving will go through Omani. But Iran is very strict: a successful sea route agreement does not mean the straits are open. If the U.S. does not lift the blockade, pay compensation, or meet the conditions, the strait will remain closed.
Even more outrageous, on the 11th, the US military took direct action in the Gulf of Oman—an MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panamani-flagged cargo ship 'Villa Nova' heading to an Iranian port, damaging the steering system and leaving the ship completely paralyzed at sea. The US military said the ship 'ignored warnings and tried to break through the blockade.' This was already the third time since the blockade was reinstated in mid-July, having previously forced 55 ships to change course. Saying they were negotiating while launching missile attacks—what kind of negotiation is that?
Ultimately, both sides are dragging things out. Iran holds 20% of the world's oil shipping lanes; if it closes the market, oil prices will fluctuate for a day—it's not in a hurry; The U.S. wants to solve the problem without appearing to make concessions, so it is pressuring while hinting that it is "almost done." August 18 is the deadline for the previous 60-day memorandum of understanding, and in the coming days, various rumors are likely to fly around.
The impact on the market is very direct: as long as the strait is closed, oil and gold prices will have support for that day. $BZ Brent crude closed at 88.9 yesterday, touched 90 intraday, and the July wave also dipped to just over 100. Gold broke above 4400 today, and that's the logic. But you have to note, this kind of geopolitical market comes and goes quickly. If it were suddenly announced one day, crude oil and gold would plunge in minutes.
Speaking of risk avoidance, we have to mention the crypto world. Every time geopolitical tensions flare, people shout "BTC is digital gold," but what happened? $XAU Gold hit a new high of 4400. $BTC is still hovering above 63,000, more than halved from last year's high of 126,000. Even die-hard Strategy fans can't hold it anymore; last month they dumped 1,690 BTC to buy back their own shares, and their belief in hoarding coins is worthless against the stock price. As for ETFs, it's even worse. BlackRock's inflows are like a roller coaster. In the first week of August, it finally had a net inflow of 800 million, but this week it started to flow out again. To put it bluntly, the crypto world is now a battle of stock—the more chaotic the situation, the less capital dares to come in. $BTC it falls or falls, just like lottery lottery inflows. Is it safe to avoid risk? Avoid the hammer. When capital really needs to hedge risk, they still recognize the golden gold and the pitch-black crude oil, not the numbers on your chain. So-called "digital gold" is called narrative when it rises, and accidents when it falls.
So at this point, those chasing long crude oil and gold should be cautious, and those shorting should be even more cautious. In the crypto world, don't even think about relying on geopolitical news to pump the market; this wave of funds isn't flowing there at all. This kind of market is like a meat grinder, sweeping stop-losses from both sides.
My personal view: it's highly unlikely they can sign before August 18, but negotiations won't completely fall apart either, and they'll just hang on like this. Both sides need this 'negotiation without breaking down' attitude; if things really fall out, it benefits no one.
What do you think? Will the results be available before the 18th?
#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates There's an interesting detail in today's market.
I just glanced at the US stock market, and honestly, it's quite interesting.
The S&P rose about 0.2%, QQQ was roughly the same, and the 10-year yield dropped from 4.70% to around 4.64%—looks like a pretty normal "rate decline, tech rebound" scenario, right?
But if you only focus on the indexes, you'll miss what's really important.
There are only two really strong stocks: CoreWeave surged nearly 19% at one point, and SMCI about 14%. And they didn't give much back after the open, which is a key detail. Typical AI concept rebounds usually spike at the open then slowly fade, but these two clearly aren't following that pattern today.
What does this mean? The market is rewarding companies that deliver real value.
CoreWeave has an order backlog close to $100 billion—think about that number. Revenue exceeded expectations, losses are narrowing, and the market recognizes this. But honestly, I've always been conflicted about this kind of stock—it's really strong, but would you dare hold it overnight?
Its issues are obvious: capital expenditures are frighteningly high, financing costs are there, customer concentration is high, and free cash flow has been negative for years. You can argue it’s worth this price, and the logic holds; or say it’s not, and you can find ten reasons why.
So my trading approach is simple: if it pulls back to VWAP with volume, consider it; if it breaks below VWAP and bounces without volume, don’t follow. Don’t chase the second sharp rally—that’s a lesson learned, not analysis.
SMCI’s logic is a bit different.
The market isn’t buying revenue this time—honestly, expectations for servers are already maxed out—the key is margin improvement. But if you look at last quarter’s cash flow, operating cash flow was negative $6.6 billion in a single quarter; that hole is no joke.
So it’s rising, but I still have that question mark: how much inventory is being pushed down? Can the margin improvement last?
Same trading discipline: wait for the first pullback. If it falls back into the opening range and is weaker than QQQ, that’s just filling the earnings gap, not a trend start—don’t overthink it.
In the next few hours, watch three things:
First, can CRWV and SMCI hold their morning highs? More importantly, do semiconductor, server, and power supply sectors have any followers? So far today, the diffusion effect is weak; VRT and others barely moved.
Second, can QQQ stand on its own as yields fall? If it’s just propped up by two stocks, the quality of this rebound is discounted.
Third, can the 10-year yield hold at 4.64%? Honestly, if it jumps back above 4.70% before tomorrow’s PPI release, all these gains will be given back.
CPI today didn’t cause any surprises, so the market breathed a sigh of relief, but that’s all it is. AI computing demand was confirmed again by earnings—that’s real; but the indexes are just so-so, no one is repricing all AI assets just because of CRWV.
The market is becoming very selective, and I think that’s a good thing.
About tomorrow’s PPI.
I’ve fallen into this trap before—CPI looks good, so you expect PPI to be good too, but when the data comes out differently, your positions from the night before get crushed. So no matter what happens today, I probably won’t hold overnight positions.
Remember this: today the market rewards what’s "proven," not what’s "possible." These are two completely different narratives.
Some friends asked if I’m optimistic about CRWV’s future. Honestly, with such high capital expenditure and leverage, I can’t confidently say it’s a long-term hold. If short-term momentum is there, trade by short-term rules; don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re value investing.
The easiest way to lose money in this market is not not knowing who’s strong, but chasing the strong stocks too high, then finding no volume and getting stuck at the peak.
Sentiment is good today, but not good enough to blindly charge in.
Wait for pullbacks, watch volume, set stop losses. #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ BTCFi Cool is a hot topic online! Is there a need for excessive panic with one less validator node?
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is for industry opinion exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. Please view market fluctuations rationally.
Recently, the community has been actively discussing the reduction of one active validator node in CORE, with many investors worried about declining cybersecurity and decentralization. Combined with Satoshi Plus's unique consensus mechanism, we objectively break down the truth for everyone, so there's no need for blind panic.
First, clarify the core concept: full node ≠ verification node.
Ordinary full nodes can be set up by anyone, only synchronizing data; Validator nodes require high staking and ranking campaigns, responsible for block production and consensus packaging. CORE nodes rotate periodically, with rankings changing each cycle; individual node exit is a normal fluctuation on the public chain.
This reduction in single nodes is most likely due to node operators voluntarily exiting due to matching revenue and operation and maintenance costs.
The public chain mechanism comes with a built-in waitlist system; vacant seats are filled by nodes ranked lower, which do not affect normal network functions such as block production, transfers, or staking, and do not pose any cybersecurity risks.
Key point: CORE's security base is completely different from ordinary POS public chains!
It relies on BTC hash power delegation + CORE dual staking, creating a dual security barrier.
Even if a small number of validator nodes exit, the security of the underlying Bitcoin hashrate remains solid, with no single points of failure or decentralized collapse.
What truly needs to be watched out is not "one less node," but continuous mass node withdrawals and long-term unmanned replacements. Currently, only single individual fluctuations are normal ecosystem survival of the fittest.
On the market front, short-term momentum is likely to be amplified by bears to trigger panic sell-offs, but single-node changes do not alter fundamentals.
CORE's medium- to long-term core logic remains: BTCFi ecosystem deployment, COREATM progress, on-chain TVL growth, institutional ecosystem expansion.
Summary
A single validator node exit at once is considered a normal ecosystem iteration, so there is no need for excessive anxiety.
Key future observations: the speed of replacement replacement for alternate nodes, and whether there is a batch of node withdrawals.
At this stage, it's emotional turbulence, not fundamental bearishness. Focus on the core narrative and ignore short-term noise.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up 我2019年第一次把账户干起来的时候，做的是马丁。就是开五倍，开一部分，爆仓价那个位置加一个等额多单。如果砸下去，刚好吃到了，开单均价就降低了，仓位也翻倍了。然后再在爆仓价位置挂一个等额多单，这时候就全仓进去了。那时候运气好，单边上涨行情，扛单都抗住了。干了近百倍，账户里最多时候价值12.8个大饼，那时候大饼9万多刀。不过亏也是因为扛单，后期虽然杠杆降低了，但耐不住砸的猛，没来得及消费，全都亏回去了。现在是没确定底部。如果确定了底部，开单就好开了。哪怕做一波大饼翻倍的大趋势行情，用三倍做滚仓也能搞十倍以上。🔥 THE MARKET ISN’T PUMPING EVERYTHING — IT’S CHOOSING WHAT DESERVES LIQUIDITY.
And that’s the part most traders are missing right now. 👀
$BTC is still the boss.
Holding around $64K without a major breakdown tells me one thing: risk appetite hasn’t disappeared. There’s no panic, no aggressive sell-off, and liquidity is still flowing.
But look at the alts…
$ETH and $SOL are moving, but this isn’t an “everything goes up” market. It’s selective rotation.
Here’s how I see the battlefield:
🥇 TIER 1 — LIQUIDITY MAGNETS
$BTC $ETH $SOL
These usually move first.
They tell us whether traders are willing to take more risk.
🥈 TIER 2 — ROTATION TARGETS
L1s: $SUI $APT $AVAX $TIA $INJ
DeFi: $AAVE $PENDLE $JUP $MORPHO $ENA
AI/DePIN: $TAO $RENDER $GRASS $IO $WLD
RWA: $ONDO $LINK $PYTH
These are where liquidity can rotate IF Tier 1 stays strong.
🎰 TIER 3 — THE CASINO
$PE $BONK $WIF $MOG $FLOKI
Fast money. Fast exits.
Momentum can be explosive, but don’t confuse a meme pump with a healthy market.
And then there’s the elephant in the room:
CPI + the Fed still control the bigger picture.
Add the gold haven bid and Hormuz-related pressure, and macro risk is still very much alive.
So I’m watching two levels closely:
📈 $64,200 reclaimed with strong volume → Tier 2 could accelerate.
📉 $63,200 lost → defensive mode comes back, and rotation could disappear quickly.
Don’t trade the story. Trade the structure. Trade the levels.
The market doesn’t owe us a pump.
It only gives us clues.
Which tier are you positioned in right now? 👇
Not financial advice. Just my read on the market structure.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana #Crypto #Altcoins #DeFi #AI #RWA #CPI #FED #Trading #MarketStructure
#DailyOrbit #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
I've been closely monitoring the data for the past two months. July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, 0.1% month-on-month, and core CPI 0.2% month-on-month. All indicators met expectations, with no surprises or surprises.
The nonfarm payrolls just turned negative, hourly wages are frozen, oil prices have fallen, and with this "lukewarm" CPI, most of Walsh's confidence in raising rates in September has been taken away. FedWatch's rate hike probability has dropped from a 50-50 split to 42%–45%, with more than half the probability of holding steady.
But let me tell you everything: this is in line with expectations≠ rate hikes are out. Inflation is still far from the 2% target, and a core 0.2% month-on-month growth shows that service stickiness is still there, and the tail end of Middle Eastern energy is still ongoing. Before September, there are August CPI and core PCE; as long as that session is hot, the rate hike narrative could revive at any time.
Most likely, "no movement in September," keeping a rope for August data—surviving will lead to the next game.
$BTC
$ETH 盘面只配一个字：等！CPI符合预期，中性行情暗藏分歧
本次CPI 3.4%完全贴合市场预期，既无大幅宽松利好，也无恶性通胀利空，宏观进入真空期，全天震荡全是洗盘诱骗行情。
ETF资金暴露机构真实调仓逻辑：$BTC单日净流出265枚，资金借利好短线止盈，但七日净流入3.01亿美元，长线底仓并未撤离；反观ETH全天双线吸金，单日流入728万美元，七日累计1.71亿美金，机构持续布局其DeFi、RWA长期叙事，结构性优势显著。
盘面上$BTC卡在63000-64000区间，无量难突破；$ETH依托资金托底韧性更强，1900关口为多头关键分水岭。$SOL小幅偏强仅适合轻仓短炒，小盘山寨缺乏增量资金，反弹即是离场时机。
数据落地属于典型“买预期、卖事实”，前期博弈资金兑现离场，短期无单边大行情。通胀仍未达标，官员鹰派发言随时压制盘面，双向插针风险居高不下。
实操谨记：观望为主，不开新仓；$BTC不追多，$ETH等待企稳再布局，合约务必降低杠杆规避剧烈扫损。#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在
⚠️仅行情复盘，不构成投资建议#SPCX SpaceX is undergoing a shift in its business foundation. Musk clearly stated in an internal meeting that AI revenue could surpass the combined revenue of all other businesses such as rocket launches, Starlink, and Dragon spacecraft as early as September, with AI becoming the core narrative of the company's growth.
Originally rocket-building aerospace companies, they are now investing large amounts of financing into the AI sector. AI business revenue growth is impressive, but the cost of computing infrastructure is huge. Even with rapid revenue expansion, the sector is still operating at a loss. The structure of capital expenditure has clearly changed, with AI taking up the vast majority of capital investment, and the proportion of capital in traditional aerospace business has relatively declined.
The aerospace sector has yet to escape the loss quagmire, with Starship R&D continuing to burn money. In Q2, the space segment posted an operating loss of about $540 million, with a large portion of the funds coming from investors.
This led to market fragmentation: bulls bet on the AI revenue explosion leading to valuation revaluation; Bears worry about endless capital consumption. Starship launch progress combined with the upcoming share lock-up further amplifies the SPCX long-short divide.
$Many people judge the market solely by whether BTC has hit new highs, but this is a misconception.
A truly complete bull market will have BTC stabilize, ETH strengthen, and altcoins erupting one after another.
The indicator is the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
- Exchange rate steadily rising: funds flow out of Bitcoin, willing to take risks, speculate on alts, and market heat is intensified;
- Exchange rate continues to fall: Funds only dare to hide in BTC for safe havens; there is no incremental growth in altcoins and even if BTC rises, it is a false prosperity.
Looking back at the mid-stages of previous bull markets, ETH/BTC will continue to rise for a long time.
In contrast, every rebound brings Bitcoin up, while altcoins struggle to keep up, resulting in poor market sustainability.
This indicates a lack of incremental funds in the market, with on-exchange funds competing with each other.
Even if BTC makes a rebound, if ETH/BTC doesn't cooperate, the potential is limited, so don't blindly go for knockoffs.
In the crypto world, Bitcoins always determine the fate of the market, while counterfeit assets determine the maximum returns.
As long as the market is alive, counterfeit companies don't necessarily make money; Once the market collapses, counterfeit stocks will suffer a brutal decline $BTC $ETH CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, in line with expectations; After the data release, BTC and ETH experienced sharp fluctuations, resulting in a double blow for both bulls and bears.
Data and market response
- CPI data: July CPI year-on-year was 3.4% (expected 3.4%, previous 3.5%); Core CPI year-on-year was 2.5% (expected 2.5%, previous 2.6%).
- Market Interpretation: Inflation continues to decline slightly, with no "over-the-balance" scenario, which is seen as neutral to positive and reduces the probability of a rate hike in September.
- Rate hike probability: After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September fell from about 51% to a range of 42%–48%.
- BTC trend: After the data release, it quickly dipped to around $64,000, then rebounded, finally closing at around $64,146.
- ETH Trend: After briefly touching 1910, it quickly pulled back, falling below 1900 and hitting a low of around 1880.
- Gold Trend: After a short-term plunge of about $30, it rebounded to about $20.
Why did there be a "double blowout" between bulls and bears?
- Highly consistent expectations: The market generally bets on 3.4%, but after the data release, there is no new direction, and funds quickly reverse their operations.
- Key Position Battle: BTC repeatedly traded between $63,000 and $65,000, with data triggering programmatic and leveraged funds for centralized liquidation.
- Geopolitics and sentiment: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and oil price fluctuations create uncertainty, intensifying the swing between risk aversion and chasing gains.
What should we do next?
- Short term: Easing rate hike expectations and falling US dollar and Treasury yields are more favorable for risk assets.
- Medium-term: Inflation remains above the 2% target, and the high interest rate environment may persist; If employment continues to deteriorate, the market may shift to "recession pricing," which is unfavorable for risk assets.
- Key Points to Watch:
- August 13: US July PPI.
- August 14: U.S. July retail sales.
- Late August: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, focusing on Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's policy statements $BTC $ETH $SOL On CPI night, the bulls staged a classic "front-start-delivery" scenario.
Stockpiling during the day, dumping at night. BTC surged from 63,163 in the morning all the way to 64,466, ETH shot from 1,856 to 1,927—before the data came out, sentiment surged first. But at 8:30, the CPI hit 3.4%, fully in line with expectations—lukewarm, no surprises. The market reversed by "selling the facts," BTC plunged straight to 63,470, wiping out the day's gains almost to zero; ETH retreated to 1892, giving back nearly half.
But there is a detail here that many people overlook.
Tonight's drop is essentially "debt repayment," not a "bearish turn." BTC's current price is 63,470, higher than today's low of 63,163; ETH1892 is $36 higher than the morning session of 1,856. In other words—the CPI gains have been paid off, but the trend bottom hasn't been broken. The momentum of three consecutive days of decline has temporarily stalled here.
The 63163 line hasn't broken yet, so the bears haven't won yet.
Tomorrow night's PPI will be the true touchstone.
· PPI remains moderate→ The logic of cooling inflation is closed. BTC stabilizes in the 63,000~64,500 range, waiting for Jackson Hole to give direction
· PPI rebound → 63,163 is highly unlikely to hold, so bears are increasing their positions
Key points to watch:
· BTC: Resistance above 64,000, lower order at 63,163
· ETH: Support at 1880, rebound threshold at 1900
Tonight was basically a wasted battle—the data gave no direction, and the market didn't pick a side. The original world was shaken, waiting for the next step on the gas.
$BTC $BEAT $ETH
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up $BTC $ETH 🌎 真正的大BOSS：宏观
今天最大的变量已经不是K线，而是美国通胀数据。
最新数据公布后，美国7月CPI同比 3.4%；BTC在数据公布后从约$64.5K附近短暂回落至$64K附近，市场正在重新定价9月美联储政策预期。
这就是今天最刺激的地方：
📉 通胀高于预期
→ 降息预期降温
→ 美元/美债压力
→ 风险资产承压
→ BTC可能继续被锤
📈 通胀低于预期
→ 降息预期升温
→ 流动性预期改善
→ BTC获得反弹燃料 🚀
但现在市场给出的答案有点尴尬：
CPI出来了，BTC却没有直接起飞。$SNDK $XAU $MU Before the data release, US stocks were falling. The market generally feared that rising oil prices would push up inflation, forcing the Fed to reconsider rate hikes in September. This worry weighed heavily on the market, but after the CPI came out, all four indicators met expectations—no surprises or shocks. The worst scenario didn't happen. The bears ran off first, so the market naturally bounced back. What the market really traded wasn't how good the CPI was, but that nothing bad happened. In this environment, meeting expectations actually became an acceptable signal. But don't rush to call for a bull return The probability of a rate hike in October is still above 50%. Inflationary pressures haven't been fully relieved, and expectations for rate cuts haven't resurfaced. This rebound feels more like a mood recovery, not a trend reversal. Short-term relief, but the direction isn't decided yet. Don't get carried away in the rally. #JulyCPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings debut in succession. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up 盘面分析：CPI前涨上去，CPI后跌回来——$BTC 和$ETH 玩了一出"买预期卖事实"
今晚的走势把"利好出尽"四个字演得明明白白。
白天BTC从凌晨的63163一路爬到64466，涨了1300点。ETH更猛，从1856拉到1927，涨了71美元。市场在CPI前提前押注"数据偏软"——非农已经爆冷，CPI大概率也降温，多头抢在数据前把仓位打满。
八点半数据落地，完全符合预期。不热不冷，没有任何惊喜。然后市场反手就卖。BTC从64466一路滑到63470，把白天涨的全吐了回去。ETH从1927跌到1892，也吐了将近一半。
这就是经典的"买预期、卖事实"。多头在CPI前买的是"可能低于预期"的想象空间，数据出来后这个想象空间没了——3.4%就是3.4%，不多不少，没有超额惊喜。已经涨过头的部分，就被获利盘回吐了。
但别急着看空。BTC现在63470，跟今天凌晨的低点63163还隔着300点，没创新低。ETH1892，比早上的1856还高36美元。也就是说——今晚的下跌是"把CPI的涨幅还回去"，不是"破位下跌"。三天连跌的颓势，在CPI这一关没有继续恶化。
结构上，63163依然是这轮下跌的底线。今晚没破，空头就还没完全控盘。明晚PPI是下一个验证点。如果PPI继续温和，通胀降温的链条就完整了，BTC大概率在63000-64500之间企稳等
Jackson Hole。如果PPI反弹，63163就危险了。
关键点位：BTC下方63163是底线，上方64000是今晚失守的压力位。ETH下方1880是支撑，上方1900是今晚跌下来的位置。
今晚就这样。CPI没给方向，市场自己也没选边，回到原地震荡。
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 August 10$ETH Total spot ETF holdings continued to rise to 5,584,887.58 ETH, with a net increase of 1,996.03 ETH for the day. Since this was the first trading day of the new week, the cumulative net increase for the week temporarily stood at 1,996.03 ETH.
This is already a clear difference from last week's capital structure. Last week, the cumulative net increase in ETH ETFs reached 118,764.78 ETH, with four consecutive trading days from August 4 to August 7 increasing holdings by 23,284.69, 27,904.96, 43,872.12, and 29,736.44 ETH respectively. Although net inflows continued on August 10, the scale of 1,996 ETH has cooled significantly.
However, in the past seven trading days, the cumulative net increase was 117,242.81 ETH, showing a clear capital advantage. Since August, total holdings have increased by 120,759.78 ETH, a growth of about 2.21%, still significantly outperforming BTC's 0.84% over the same period.
ETH currently seems more like a slowdown after last week's consecutive large inflows, rather than a reversal in the capital trend. What really needs to be watched is the next few trading days. If the daily net inflow continues to drop from tens of thousands to thousands or even turns negative, it will confirm that this round of strong capital inflows is clearly fading. 在加密世界里, 迈克尔塞勒一直被奉为全网第一比特币死忠粉, 他的名言「永远不要卖掉你的比特币」更是无数信仰者的座右铭。
微策公司在塞勒的带领下, 过去几年通过发债和发股票加杠杆的方式, 疯狂吃下了超过二十二万六千五百枚比特币, 成了全球持有比特币最多的上市公司。
然而, 就在最近, 微策公司向美国证监会披露的最新资本管理动向里, 却出现了一个极其罕见且微妙的变化, 他们决定通过出售一部分比特币以及普通股股票, 来补充公司的现金储备。
虽然微策嘴上说这只是正常的财库资产重组, 但这无疑在信仰者的阵营里撞出了一条裂缝。
那个被无数自媒体吹捧为可以无限循环的「发债买币加杠杆」永动机飞轮, 终于在冰冷的物理规律面前撞上了天花板。
这块需要注意一下微策杠杆飞轮的底层运行逻辑。
微策的玩法其实非常简单, 也就是所谓的溢价发行套利。
因为微策公司持有海量现货, 它的股票MSTR在二级市场上会产生相对于它所持有比特币资产净值的溢价。
塞勒利用这个溢价, 只要股票涨, 他就发债和增发新股募集美元, 然后立刻把募集来的美元去二级市场全额买入比特币。
买入比特币又会刺激币价上涨, 进而拉高公司每股含币量, 吸引更多传统股民来抢购股票, 制造更高的溢价。
这个自我实现的正反馈循环, 让微策在过去两年的单边牛市里出尽了风头。
但是, 只要这个飞轮想继续运转, 它就必须依赖两个硬性条件, 币价必须持续上涨, 且二级市场股民必须愿意持续支付高昂的溢价。
一旦比特币陷入宽幅震荡, 比如连续几个月在六万多美元磨底, 这个杠杆永动机的物理极限就暴露了出来。
微策为了维持庞大的负债结构, 每年需要支付数千万美元的债券利息和运营成本。
当币价滞涨、股票溢价率回落时, 新的融资通道就会被瞬间堵死。
如果你只进不出, 兜里的现金总有一天会被利息支出消耗殆尽。
所以呢, 微策这次选择卖出少部分比特币和股票来回笼资金、充实公司财务安全缓冲垫, 这其实是一个极其理性的防守举措。
它证明了在这个世界上, 没有什么杠杆是可以无限嵌套下去的。
哪怕是塞勒这样看似狂热的传道士, 在面对公司现金流生存的硬指标时, 也必须低头承认规则的力量。
我个人觉得, 这种策略调整, 反而能让微策这家公司变得更像一个「活人」。
以前的微策像是一个被绑在比特币价格引擎上的自杀式炸弹, 只要价格崩塌, 庞大的债务清算就会瞬间把它撕成碎片。
而现在, 他们开始学会建立现金缓冲, 学会利用套现来平抑杠杆的风险。
这虽然打破了「死也不卖」的绝对信仰神话, 却极大地增强了微策在长周期金融冬夜里的抗风险能力。
一个懂得防守的微策, 远比一个只会无脑喊单加杠杆的微策更让华尔街感到放心。
屏幕前的你, 看着微策这次策略转向和现金回笼的操作, 是觉得塞勒的信仰终于出现了裂缝、杠杆飞轮即将崩盘, 还是看好它能成功通过理性防御活过下一轮周期？
反正我觉得, 规则是冷酷的, 现金才是王道, 哪怕是信仰的图腾, 终究也得向负债表低头。
#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化 Re (RE) is currently trading around $RE 0.41892, consolidating sideways after a period of downward cooling.
* Moving Averages: The MA5 ($0.41252) and MA10 ($RE 0.40246) are curling upward below the current price, offering immediate support. However, the MA20 ($RE 0.43940) sits above as overhead resistance.
* Key Levels on Chart: RE hit a local low of $0.35720 in late July before rebounding, but it remains well below its recent surge peak of $0.68025.
Historical Ups and Downs
* All-Time Low: RE traded near its historic low around $0.357 – $0.360 during its recent consolidation phase in July.
* All-Time High: RE reached an all-time record peak of $1.08 – $1.09 earlier in its listing history.
* Recent Range: Over the last 30 days, RE has seen a drop of about 20%, but it is up nearly 9% over the past week as buyers attempt a recovery.
Price Predictions
Short-Term Prediction (Next Few Days to Weeks)
* Bullish Scenario: If RE breaks above resistance at the MA20 level near $0.4400, it could test the $0.5000 – $0.5500 zone.
* Bearish Scenario: If the price loses momentum and drops below $0.4000, expect a retest of strong support near $0.3570.
All-Time Long-Term Prediction
If the project expands its on-chain reinsurance ecosystem and gains broader market traction, RE's ultimate long-term peak in a major bull market could reach $1.50 – $2.50+. $CARDS is showing strong momentum.
Structure remains under control.
EP
0.14200 - 0.14450
TP
0.14800
0.15300
0.16000
SL
0.13750
Liquidity is building above the reclaimed reaction zone, with buyers defending structure after the recent expansion. As long as support holds, continuation toward higher liquidity remains the favored scenario.
Let’s go $CARDSFriends, tonight the US July CPI data is out. Let's talk about how this will affect the September rate hike and what it means for the crypto world. 1. What exactly is the situation of the July CPI? Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, down from 3.5% last month, marking the smallest increase since March. Month-on-month, it rose 0.1%, but in June it was -0.4%, but this time it returned to positive growth. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) fell to 2.5% year-on-year, down slightly from last month's 2.6%. Overall, the data fully met market expectations, with no surprises. Breaking it down, housing costs remain the main driver of inflation, contributing about two-thirds of the monthly CPI increase. Energy prices, however, continued to decline, with gasoline prices falling 2.9% month-on-month. However, airfare prices have risen sharply, increasing 2.2% month-on-month. 2. Will there be another rate hike in September? This is what everyone cares about most. Before the CPI release, the market's expectation for a rate hike in September was around 46%. After the data came out, rate hike expectations dropped to 38%-42%. CME's FedWatch tool shows a 52% probability of keeping rates unchanged in September and a 48% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Simply put: raising interest rates or not is roughly a 50-50 split. Why are you still so conflicted? Because 3.4% inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target. And the stubborn housing costs, combined with the uncertainty in the Middle East (the Strait of Hormuz is still closed), inflationAI行情走到今天，最大的分水岭已经出现： 过去市场交易的是“AI会不会爆发”。 现在市场交易的是： AI资本投入，能不能真正转化成收入和利润。 CoreWeave（CRWV）最新财报给出了一个非常重要的信号： AI算力需求并没有明显降温。 二季度营收达到约25.8亿美元，同比增长112%，同时积压订单规模达到约1040亿美元，管理层表示当前算力产能依然供不应求。 更关键的是： 公司不仅没有放缓资本开支，反而继续扩大扩容计划。 这说明行业最大的担忧—— “AI基础设施投资是否已经接近顶部？” 暂时没有得到验证。 但市场真正关注的，不只是CRWV一家公司的增长。 而是整个AI产业链的传导。 第一受益：HBM高带宽内存 AI训练和推理需求持续提升，本质上需要： 更多GPU 更高带宽内存 更强存储能力。 因此SK海力士、美光等HBM供应链仍然是最直接受益方向。 尤其是在AI服务器需求快速增长的背景下，HBM已经成为整个产业链中最紧缺环节之一。 第二层：AI SSD与存储 这里需要区分。 AI数据中心确实会提升企业级SSD需求，但并不代表所有存储公司都会同步受益。 HBM属于高壁垒、高确定性赛道白方刚在棋盘中央投下一枚象，直指h7兵——标普500收于历史新高，八千点的方阵已在远方的地平线列队。JPMorgan把年终目标从7800提至8000，又向上修正了2026-27的盈利谱系，这不是随手一推的随手棋，而是中局里精心计算的子力协调：第二季度财报是坚实的中心兵，AI投资开始产生真实的现金流与营收，那意味着这枚兵不再是虚张声势的弃子，而是拥有升变前景的通路兵。九月加息压力如黑方在王翼制造兑子简化，被他们视作减轻压力的兑换机会而非威胁。
但我必须提醒你，残局库里的数据异常刺眼：Shiller CAPE超过40倍，这个指标像一枚深埋在中局的暗雷。高位棋手谁不记得，当估值比均值高出两个标准差，棋钟上剩下的时间往往比局面优势更残酷。Fundstrat的Tom Lee同样指向8000，机构乐观情绪蔚然成风，几乎整个大厅的棋手都在同一侧易位，这恰恰是我最警惕的局面——当所有人的计划都押在同一侧的结构性弃子时，黑方在中路反击的路线反而愈发清晰。
盈利增长能否接住AI资本开支的猛烈炮火？估值扩张是否正在透支未来二十步的稳定性？政策转向的阴影像一枚悬在g7格的孤马，随时可以跃入白方的后翼空档。这不是一个简单的问题是——棋盘上永远没有简单的问题，只有未被算清的战术组合。真正的特级大师从不问“能否继续涨”，而是问“当第一波攻击失利后，我这套体系还有没有第二套、第三套作战计划去应对估值与现金流之间的脱节”。
JPMorgan的8000分是一步有力的着法，市场用封盘后突破开盘价来回应。但注意，它击中的是h7兵而不是王，是一次漂亮的理论验证而非终局。八千点是一盘新棋的开局，不是旧局的胜利收尾。你可以记录这步棋，然后向裁判示意，继续走向更复杂的残局。在那里，4开头的CAPE会像一只沉默的象，沿对角线巡视着每一个虚高的筹码。 #sp500eyes8000Bitcoin LTH aNUPL turned negative: entering a bottoming phase, but the final capitulation is not yet complete
As Bitcoin fell -50% from its peak, the Long-Term Holder Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (LTH aNUPL) indicator has entered negative territory below the market average.
Long-term holder adjustment NUPL (LTH aNUPL): tracks the unrealized P&L status of long-term investors (LTH) holding coins for more than 155 days, used to assess the financial pressure on long-term funds and the bottoming stage.
Long-term funds enter loss territory: beyond speculative short-term liquidity, even the most confident long-term holders are suffering losses, which fits the pattern of a large cycle bottom
Not reached the "Depression" stage: Unlike past macro bottoms where indicators were deeply negative, it has not yet reached a state of complete emotional and financial exhaustion (surrender).
Two scenarios: either triggering a final capitulation collapse that pushes LTH to extremes, or prematurely completing the bottom through institutional demand absorption, which will be a critical watershed
The market has entered a typical macro bottom structure, but no full signals of capitulation have yet to appear. It is important to watch whether LTH aNUPL rebounds to near zero and raises the lows again.With the July CPI arrival, the Fed's logic for rate cuts in September is beginning to change
This time, the inflation data did not surprise the market, but the signals it reveals are more important than simple changes in rate cut expectations
US July CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, overall in line with expectations. Energy prices fell 1.5% month-on-month, helping overall inflation continue to cool, but housing costs remained the main source of pressure, accounting for most of the month's gains.
Data shows that U.S. inflation is indeed slowly declining, but it is still far from the Fed's ideal target. In particular, core services inflation remains elevated, which is why policymakers are hesitant to pivot quickly.
Combined with previous employment data changes, nonfarm payrolls in July unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while May and June employment figures were sharply revised downward, indicating growing signs of economic cooldown. The current issue is no longer whether the economy is under pressure, but whether the pace of inflation decline can give the Fed enough confidence.
My view is that expectations for a rate cut in September are heating up, but it's not yet a certainty.
This CPI seems to open a door for the Fed, rather than simply pressing the confirmation button. Subsequent PPI, employment data, and core service price performance will all influence the final decision.
If inflation continues to ease moderately in the coming months while employment continues to cool but does not deteriorate rapidly, the Fed may choose to adjust its policy direction to provide more support for the economy.
However, if housing and service inflation reappears, the pace of policy shifts may still slow down.
For BTC, US stocks, and gold, what truly matters is not the phrase "interest rate cuts are coming," but whether the funding environment has entered a phase of continuous improvement.
The biggest change in this cycle is shifting from focusing on "when inflation will end" to observing "whether the economy can achieve a soft landing."
The July CPI is just one of the key points; the data in the coming months will determine whether the Fed is starting a new cycle or maintaining patience.
$DOS $KAITO $BTC
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? Taking into account tonight's August nonfarm payroll and CPI outlook for the second half of the year,
On the contrary, I think the most noteworthy thing in the second half of the year isn't "all coins rising at once," but rather:
$BTC → $ETH → Mainstream public chains → AI/RWA/DeFi → Small market cap, high beta
Funds are most likely seeking returns in this order.
First stage: August to September
Core Keywords:
Macro pricing + $BTC absorbing liquidity.
If CPI remains moderate, the labor market keeps weakening, and the Fed does not further strengthen rate hike expectations, BTC may be the first to complete a trend correction.
At this stage, I won't chase small coins excessively.
Second stage: September to October
If ETH can truly rise above the 1960–2000 range, the market may see a clear decline in BTC Dominance + $ETH$BTC recovery.
This is the stage when the knockoff market is truly worth observing.
Especially:
$ETH, $SOL, $TAO, and DeFi/RWA projects with real on-chain activity.
Macro data research also shows that changes in CPI expectations provide certain predictive information for the volatility of assets like $ETH and $SOL, indicating that macro liquidity has a more direct impact on altcoins than many imagine.
Third stage: October to December
If you encounter the following:
Inflation continues to decline + Fed policy is no longer hawkish + ETFs continue to absorb spot + stablecoin supply expansion + $BTC break previous highs
Only then can the market truly enter the so-called Altseason.
Moreover, I am more optimistic about a "structural knockoff season," not the kind of junk coin rally seen in 2021.
In the second half of the year, I will focus on these areas
First tier: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL
They are essentially liquidity anchors for the entire market.
Second tier: $TAO, $LINK, $AAVE, $ONDO
The focus is not on the story, but on whether AI, oracles, DeFi, and RWA sectors have real capital and on-chain demand.
Third tier: high-beta small-cap coins
Previously focused on $BICO, $ZBT, $ALLO, $SENSO, $SCORE, $BSB, $RIVER, etc., can enter the observation pool, but must simultaneously improve trading volume, OI, funding rate, on-chain activity, and coin holding concentration.
Personal views on the situation in the second half of the year:
Volatility is relatively high, with the highest probability.
$BTC is responsible for stabilizing the market; $ETH starts catching up, followed by funds spreading into $SOL, AI, RWA, and DeFi.
Personal opinion and does not constitute any advice.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? The entire industry is watching the reflection of the glass curtain wall when presenting plans; what really needs to be looked at is the geotechnical report on the third basement level. Last week, the $1.1 billion inflow into the US spot market was indeed like a truckload of steel beams steadily delivered by a tower crane—but the supervisory log notes were glaring: on August 10, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 91 million, and this load-bearing side pillar showed early circumferential contraction cracks. The Ethereum ETF barely had a net inflow of 5.3 million, but at best, several meters of fresh air pipes were laid in the duct wells, and even insulation cotton for window sill walls couldn't be gathered, making it impossible to verify the load of the main structure.
The dump trucks on the chain are the real main construction lines. One whale transported 7,513 BTC in three weeks; Another miner whale dumped 6,494 BTC into centralized trading in twenty days. This isn't civilized construction on site; it's earth being continuously excavated and replaced under the cap. No matter how shiny the scaffolding built by ETF funds, it can't stop the foundation's bearing capacity characteristic values from being devalued day by day. If you use the thickness of curtain wall aluminum panels to deduce the safety rating of a steel-concrete core tube, you won't pass the drawing review stage—the load combination can't be counted, renderings can only be used for bidding, not for completion.
The essence of this game is that two structural systems compete for loads on the same site. On one side is the ETF, a prefabricated prestressed beam, which uses financial instruments to pre-attach demand to tower cranes; On the other side, on-chain miners and whales use cast-in-place aggregate, each weighing and being dropped to the floor one by one. Where do you leave the seismic joints? The design institute's standard answer is that the wider the joint, the safer, but the market only gives you one three-centimeter expansion joint. Once the joint is leaked through, the exterior wall stone starts to make strange noises at night.
CPI is the static level next to the tower crane; the moment the reading crosses the warning value, the canopy canopy, glass rib nodes, and temporary diagonal braces all switch to standby mode. When risk appetite is downgraded from design strength to allowable stress, no matter how beautiful the facade depth is, it's just time-lapse photography stored on the rendering company's server.
So don't repeat the mantra "the four-year cycle foundation pit has already bottomed out." Structural engineers know that the data from the water level observation well is not yet stable, and the quicksand has not stopped; any "bottoming" is only the elevation of the temporary enclosure structure. Whether the four red seals for survey, design, construction, and supervision on the foundation trench inspection report can be gathered depends on every drop hammer inspection sold on the chain and the lateral load sampling records every second in the CPI wind tunnel test. The tower crane can be taken out at any time, but the date repeatedly smeared on the rebar rebar sample form will not automatically become a signature column on the completion acceptance filing form #btcethetfflowsdiverge7月CPI符合预期后宏观资产维持宽幅震荡态势。核心CPI停留于2.5%且住房通胀占据三分之二涨幅，表明结构性价格粘性尚存，限制了宽松预期定价。若后续8月PPI与核心CPI数据继续走软，风险偏好修复将推动资金重新回流高估值资产。一旦8月通胀数据出现二次抬头拉升加息概率，全球风险资产将面临仓位出清与估值回调重压。后续需密切观测8月PPI公布当日美债收益率与美元指数的实时变动情况。
#Anthropic加快IPO进程，AI估值进入验证期 #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果，美伊施压升级Let me clarify the biggest misconception in the current market: don't fantasize about a full knockoff bull market.
Nowadays, liquidity is very demanding, and the knockoff season is no longer a broad-sweeping rally.
BTC remains the market chassis, but funds only rotate back and forth across various tracks; they do not buy all the altcoins simultaneously.
Many L1 public chains have entered a recovery phase, but a large number of public chains have yet to gain capital favor and require continuous validation of demand.
Currently, the DeFi and RWA sectors are performing better overall; The AI sector is polarized and highly popular, but many funds have already chosen to cash in.
MEME coins can only be used as sentiment indicators; pulse surges do not indicate sustainability.
Remember one key rule of judgment:
The first round of rally was merely to attract attention. The real strength depends on their performance after the rally.
Sustained buying interest and stable trading volume during pullbacks are reliable targets; Once the hype fades, trading volume shrinks rapidly, and the market can easily be short-lived. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another $BABY is testing a major reaction zone.
Structure remains under heavy pressure.
EP
0.01070 - 0.01095
TP
0.01130
0.01180
0.01240
SL
0.01030
Liquidity is building above the reaction zone, but buyers need to reclaim structure after the recent sharp decline. As long as support holds and the reclaim is confirmed, continuation toward higher liquidity remains the favored scenario.
Let’s go $BABYETF资金冰火分化！机构正在从BTC调仓ETH
一、核心数据速览
$BTC：24h净流出265枚（1697万美元），7日累计净流入4711枚（3.01亿美元）
$ETH：24h净流入3823枚（728万美元），7日累计净流入89742枚（1.71亿美元）
二、单日流出≠机构看空BTC
CPI落地前避险止盈是主因。短期投机机构兑现短线利润，但周度3亿资金持续进场，长线配置资金并未撤离，单日流出只是短期调仓噪音，不存在趋势性出逃。
三、资金结构性轮动：机构加码以太坊
ETH全天、全周同步吸金，反映机构配置逻辑切换：
1. BTC定位数字黄金，宏观不确定性下资金阶段性减仓避险；
2. ETH承载质押、DeFi、RWA多重叙事，机构看好长期应用价值，持续加仓布局。
四、市场信号解读
1. 存量博弈特征明显：资金没有流出加密赛道，仅在两大主流之间内部轮换；
2. 中期底盘稳固：BTC周度大额流入托底大盘，不存在深度走熊基础；
3. ETH增量预期更强：资金提前押注生态叙事估值修复，走势韧性将持续强于BTC。
⚠️仅资金数据复盘，不构成投资建议$84.6M in short liquidations sit less than 4% above where $BTC is trading right now. That's the part of this hyperliquid standoff that gets buried under the headline framing. Yes, short notional outweighs long notional by roughly 60%, four whale addresses are carrying $249.4m in short exposure against two addresses holding $99m long. And yes, btc is down 20.6% over 90 days while the s&p climbed 4.8% and euro stoxx put up 12.5%. on paper that reads as bears in control. But look at where the liqu$BTC US July core CPI data was quite moderate, rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, the lowest in over three years
Overall CPI also met expectations. The pressure for the Fed's rate hike in September was less intense, but BTC instead fell from around 64,500 to around 63,300. This data matched what people had guessed a few days ago—a case of all the good news being exhausted and short-term funds fleeing on the news—a classic case of buying and expecting to sell
Whether there will be further rate hikes depends on next month's employment and inflation data, as well as what Walsh says at the Jackson Hole annual meeting at the end of the month. For now, it's just a temporary relief, and the direction of $ETH remains unclear $BTC
Interesting.
The past six CPI data releases have all followed the same exact pattern.
Bitcoin has consistently reversed direction shortly after each of these events.
This time around, we saw price sell off right before CPI, which would suggest that we could see another move to the upside over the coming days if this pattern continues.
Of course, six occurrences are nowhere near enough to guarantee that the same thing happens again.
But considering how consistently this has played out over the past few months, I definitely think it’s something worth paying attention to.
#CPIInLineFedWatch #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid This is insane.
$BTC is sitting between two enormous liquidity magnets.
$64.5K-$67K above.
$61K-$63K below.
We're still trapped inside the range.
I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if we see both sides swept before the real move begins.$AEVO is testing a key reaction zone.
Structure remains under pressure.
EP
0.01930 - 0.01960
TP
0.02020
0.02100
0.02200
SL
0.01870
Liquidity is building above the reaction zone, with buyers attempting to stabilize structure after the recent sweep. As long as support holds and price confirms the reclaim, continuation toward higher liquidity remains the favored scenario.
Let’s go $AEVO[Pharaoh's Market Watch] My inbox exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh, with CPI settled, will there still be a rate hike in September? Pharaoh says directly, CPI met expectations, the door to a September rate hike is half closed but not locked yet. The data on August 12 was indeed stable: year-on-year 3.4%, core 2.5%, all hitting the target. Coupled with negative non-farm payroll growth, the market immediately lowered the probability of a September rate hike to 42%-48%. There are two key points#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
就业崩了2.3万，CPI还在3.4%粘着，住房成本吞掉当月三分之二的涨幅——美联储现在就是条被架在火上的鱼。
市场盯着“符合预期”自嗨，但真正的鬼故事是“就业减少”撞上“核心顽固”。去年鲍威尔信誓旦旦要“痛苦压通胀”，现在距离大选只剩几个月，他敢真让失业率飙升来换那最后0.4%的通胀目标？绝对不敢。9月100%按兵不动，但这绝不是利好，而是“滞胀”的明牌——不敢加是因为经济撑不住，不敢降是因为通胀还在吸血。
现在谁在买单？持有美股七巨头的人。利率不动，但盈利预期要下调了，资金会从高估值的纳指切向能源和必选消费，这轮高低切换刚刚开始。
操作参考：别碰纳指期货。如果下周PPI数据低于预期，直接干多黄金（GLD），止损设在230日均线下方2档。这股宏观风一吹，只有实物资产能扛。
数据摆在这儿还幻想软着陆？靠，这钱烫手，我只看大宗。#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
1、实时数据：7月CPI同比3.4%、核心CPI2.5%，完全符合预期；CME数据显示9月加息概率降至42%，BTC短线小幅反弹。
2、底层逻辑：通胀持续降温叠加就业走弱，加息紧迫性大幅下降，但通胀仍高于2%目标，9月更大概率维持利率不变。
3、个人思路：宏观压力小幅缓解，不盲目追涨，保持谨慎等趋势明朗，长期静待牛市回归。
$SNDK
$DOGE
仅代表个人观点，不构成投资建议Key Review of 2026 Q2 US Stock Financial Reports (AI Computing Power Main Theme)
This quarter, US stocks showed clear divergence: upstream chip and hardware performance exploded, cloud giants were spending capital frantically, profits were highly concentrated, and market attention shifted from "revenue growth" to capital expenditure, free cash flow, and earnings realization.
1. Overall Overview of the Market
S&P 500's Q2 EPS year-over-year significantly exceeded expectations, with 64% of companies earning better earnings.
• Overall EPS was about 45% year-on-year, with a 26% growth after excluding one-time equity investment gains.
• Highly concentrated earnings: The AI infrastructure industry chain contributes about one-third of the S&P 500's profit growth, with Google, Amazon, Micron, and Nvidia being the largest contributors, with a few leading companies driving index growth.
• Contradiction: AI demand is strong, but major companies continue to increase capital expenditures, putting pressure on some giants' free cash flow, and the market is beginning to worry about the investment return cycle.
2. Key Points of Core Company Financial Reports
1. Google Alphabet (GOOG)
• Q2 revenue was $119.8 billion, +24% year-on-year; Cloud business was $24.77 billion, +82% year-on-year, with cloud backlog orders exceeding $500 billion, and Gemini Enterprise Edition has high penetration.
• The sharp increase in net profit was mainly due to unrealized gains from equity investments, which are non-operating income; Full-year capital expenditure was raised to $195-205 billion, with negative free cash flow for the quarter.
• Market concerns: massive infrastructure investment squeezes cash flow in the short term, causing stock prices to pull back after earnings reports.
2. NVIDIA NVDA
• Data center business continues to grow rapidly, with strong demand for AI chips;
• Market focus: HBM supply constraints, next-generation chip iterations, changes in customer inventory;
• There was a slight reduction in holdings this quarter, and institutions have begun to consider whether growth can be maintained.
3、AMD
• Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, +50% year-on-year, exceeding expectations; Data center business was $6.7 billion, +107% year-on-year, accounting for 58% of total revenue.
• Both revenue and profit met targets, but Q3 guidance did not meet aggressive market expectations. The sharp drop in after-hours earnings reflects that the stock price had already been fully optimistic about price-in beforehand.
4. Intel (INTC).
• Q2 revenue was $16.13 billion, +25% year-on-year, the strongest quarterly growth in nearly 15 years; Data center AI business was +59% year-on-year, becoming the main growth driver.
• Q3 guidance beats expectations, with a sharp rise in after-hours trading; However, the market remains cautious: gross margin recovery, foundry business input-output ratio, and AI chip competitiveness.
5. TSMC (TSM).
• Q2 revenue was $40.2 billion, +36% year-on-year; Net profit +77.4% year-on-year, a record high; AI high-performance computing accounted for 66% of total revenue.
• Raising full-year revenue growth to just above 40%; Capital expenditure raised to $60–64 billion, additional investment in Arizona, USA, optimistic about AI demand continuing into 2030.
• Executives openly expressed envy of the extremely high gross margins of memory chips, reflecting clear profit divergence within the industry.
6. Micron MU (Storage)
• AI drives explosive demand for HBM, with storage volume and price rising simultaneously, and gross margins surging significantly;
• Core risk: Expanding capacity requires huge capital expenditures; Storage shortages persist, only able to meet some customer needs, with long-term contracts signed and locked in for years.
7. Broadcom AVGO, Mywell MRVL
• Broadcom: AI network chip and switch business is booming;
• Mywell: Server communication chips benefited from the surge in AI server volume, becoming a key institutional increase this quarter.
3. Key Core Signals in This Quarter's Financial Report
1. The industrial chain is clearly hot and cold
Upstream chips (GPU, CPU, HBM storage, optical communications) have fully delivered on their performance; Cloud vendors saw revenue growth, but capital expenditures surged, eroding free cash flow; Traditional consumer electronics segments showed sluggish growth.
2. Market focus shifts
No longer focusing solely on revenue and profit growth; Capital expenditure, free cash flow, order visibility, and gross margin have become the core drivers of stock prices. Companies with higher-than-expected financial reports tend to fall more easily than expected.
3. AI demand is highly certain, but supply remains the bottleneck
TSMC, Micron, and Intel all mentioned tight capacity, constraints on HBM and advanced process capacity, long expansion cycles, supply not keeping up with demand, and supporting chip prices and gross margins.
4. Profit concentration risk
Index earnings heavily depend on a handful of AI hardware giants, and if these companies' growth slows, it will put significant pressure on the broader market.
4. Key Indicators for Future Observation
1. Q3 guidance from major companies to see if AI business growth slows down;
2. Capital expenditure plan and observation of free cash flow recovery;
3. Progress of capacity release for HBM and advanced process processes;
4. Are there signs of slowing capital expenditure among downstream cloud providers? $BTC realized profits are collapsing while realized losses keep expanding
Every previous cross of these (2015, 2018, 2022) became a macro bottom
We’re approaching that zone again