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The 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through the 5% threshold is now a done deal. So where is the real eye of this global bond market storm?
Simply put, the bond market bloodbath appears to be driven by soaring oil prices and PPI exceeding expectations, but the more painful truth is the Treasury Department robbing Peter to pay Paul.
The Treasury's $5.2 billion bond repurchase was intended to inject liquidity into the market, but the willingness to take over was dismal, with subscriptions only half of the quota, directly shattering the market's remaining confidence. The huge deficit pit remains, bond supply keeps flowing, but buyers are starting to shut the door, and this is the essence of the long-term interest rate runaway.
The derivatives market is betting over 70% on a Fed rate hike, completely forced by cost pressures. Tonight's 8:30 PM CPI data just needs to add fuel to the fire, and the 5% threshold will be instantly breached. At that time, not only will mortgage costs continue to squeeze homebuyers to death, but US stock valuations will be pulled higher, and all risk assets will have to undergo an extremely painful repricing.
In the short term, don't rush to bottom-fish. Even if tonight's CPI doesn't collapse, this high interest rate pressure combined with fiscal deleveraging means funds will likely retreat first into US Treasuries and the dollar for high yields, and risk assets will probably experience a liquidity drain.
Only when the Middle East situation cools down, oil prices fall to squeeze out cost bubbles, or the Treasury throws real money to rescue the market, will the bond market bottom be truly solid. At the moment the data is released tonight, hold your hands first, watch the capital flow clearly before making a move.
DYOR
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 刚把IOST清掉了，心里那根弦终于松下来🍓 你们有没有过那种，图越看越不对劲的瞬间？ 这单我只想吃一段超跌反弹，没打算谈恋爱。进场位置不高，吃了四十多个点已经很满足，但越盯盘越发现：MA5和MA10确实跟上来了，MA20却还死死压在0.001337上方。这不是反转结构，是反弹结构。大方向依然朝下，只是跌太狠了，给了一口喘气的机会。 真正让我决定走的，是BTC。它在78800附近晃，看着平静，其实很不稳。只要今晚丢下78000，IOST这类山寨很可能直接跌破0.001。一天能砍60%的品种，是没有底的，BTC稍微打个喷嚏，它就能再腰斩一次。这不是危言耸听，是这类币的日常。 偏多的逻辑我也认：超跌反弹确实能跑出很凶的短线，MA5、MA10金叉那一下，情绪容易上头。但问题是，这种反弹交易的是修复，不是趋势。市场现在定价的，是反弹能走多远，而不是底部到了没有。被提前计价的乐观，恰恰是风险所在。 第二层影响更值得想。BTC一弱，资金不会往山寨躲，反而会先撤出来观望。ETH跟着抖，山寨失去承接，板块轮动的节奏会从进攻切回防守。这时候还拿着小币等反转，等于把节奏交给了别人。 我的判断：现在更像下跌Governor of the French Central Bank Warns: Economy Worrisome, Fiscal Deficit Urgently Needs Resolution
Emmanuel Moulin, Governor of the French Central Bank and member of the ECB, publicly stated that the current economic situation in France is concerning, calling on the government and parliament to take action to properly address the budget deficit issue. He mentioned that although France is not in crisis, the overall situation is not optimistic, and public finance problems urgently need practical solutions. While the Eurozone economy as a whole continues to expand, France is clearly lagging behind, with weak consumption combined with declining investment. The official economic growth forecast for this year has been downgraded from 0.7% to 0.5%.
The ECB recently completed an interest rate hike and raised inflation expectations, believing that the European economy has shown resilience amid regional conflicts. Moulin explained that the rate hike policy serves the entire Eurozone and has both positive and negative effects on France. The continuously rising interest rates will directly increase France's national debt interest payments, which are expected to reach €100 billion annually by 2028 to 2029, significantly increasing the debt servicing pressure.
From a global macro perspective, rising sovereign fiscal risks in Europe will exacerbate volatility in the global bond market. If France's debt issues continue to worsen, capital will seek safe-haven assets, which is a short-term positive for gold; meanwhile, the ECB's tightening monetary policy will continue to suppress global risk assets, and BTC and other crypto assets will also be indirectly affected. The fiscal and interest rate dynamics in Europe, #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $SPCX USDT at $149.51 has an unusual problem: the company story is getting stronger while new share supply keeps hitting the market. SpaceX just completed another classified U.S. Space Force launch, its 104th Falcon 9 mission of 2026, while the company is also expanding its AI-computing ambitions. But traders are dealing with something more immediate. A fresh post-IPO unlock made up to 319M additional shares eligible for sale on September 9. The stock initially dropped more than 4% on the supplyCommon Characteristics of 100x Coins
Low Circulating Supply: Circulation generally accounts for 20-30%, with a large amount of tokens locked up, allowing a small amount of capital to pump the price;
Highly Concentrated Holdings: The project team/early whales hold the vast majority of tokens, enabling the market to be artificially manipulated;
Narrative-Driven, Not Performance-Driven: Relying on hot sectors (RWA, GameFi, Meme, AI) to tell stories, with actual revenue far from supporting the market cap after the surge;
Contract Leverage Amplifies the Market: During the surge phase, a large number of leveraged long positions flood in, and cascading liquidations accelerate the decline during the crash;
Inevitable Deep Retracement After the Surge: Except for PONS which retraced 84%, the other three retraced 94%-99.7%; 100x is a theoretical maximum return, and ordinary people almost never sell at the peak;
Unlocking is the Biggest Killer: After the surge, a large number of team/investor tokens unlock, creating huge selling pressure.Oil prices have collapsed, gold has rebounded, so why are the three giants still lying low?
Less than three hours before the results, the market showed a small divergence: Brent crude plunged 4% back to 101, the Red Sea ceasefire, US stock futures turned positive, gold made a V-shaped rebound, yet the three crypto giants are still down on the ground.
BTC $BTC at 77,200, it even broke below 77,000 in the early session. The oil price plunge should be good news—less inflation, less pressure to raise rates—but it hasn’t really followed through. Tonight is the main switch: if core CPI is below 0.2%, 77,000 is the stage bottom, and 80,000 is directly in sight; if above 0.3%, breaking the 76,350 all-in cost line means looking down to 75,000.
ETH $ETH at 2,448 remains the most stable of the three, down less than 1%. Exchange balances hit new lows, floating chips are few, it can’t be pushed down or pulled up, just waiting for the market to give direction. Resistance is at 2,500 above, iron bottom at 2,400 below. If CPI warms, it will steadily recover; don’t expect a surge or a deep drop.
$SOL is the worst, at 98.9, it has already slipped below the 100-dollar threshold. High beta is a sin in a weak market; when the market hesitates, it falls first; conversely, if tonight’s data gives some sweetness, its rebound slope will be the steepest. First watch if it can reclaim 100, then 105; if data disappoints, look for 95 or 90. Elasticity ranking is always SOL > BTC > ETH, same for pullbacks.
Traditional markets are already trading ahead on "oil price decline, inflation easing," the crypto world is just waiting for tonight’s CPI report. Don’t fuss, those holding steady hold steady, those out wait for signals, whoever moves first follows the other.$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Falling rate-hike expectations are pushing yields and the dollar lower, creating a favorable backdrop for risk assets—with Bitcoin typically reacting first.
At the same time, institutional demand remains strong. U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded $3.8B in net inflows over three weeks, including $731M on Sept. 3 alone.
Liquidity is speaking louder than the headlines. 📈
#BTC #ETH #ZEC #PPI #CPI
#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows 热于预期的 PPI 数据引发风险资产波动，高杠杆多头遭遇集中清算。过去一轮清洗规模约 $290M，但真正值得关注的并不是清算数字本身，而是： BTC 并没有因此直接跌穿关键支撑，而是在 $75.5K–$76.8K 区间继续寻找平衡。 市场正在发生一个重要变化： 过去 → 交易员更多押注美联储转向宽松 现在 → 市场开始要求 价格和成交量真正证明强势 📌 关键位置： 🟢 $75.5K 守住 → 本轮可能只是杠杆降温，后续仍有机会重新挑战 $79.5K–$82K 🔴 $75.5K 跌破 → 注意 $72.8K–$74K 的进一步流动性测试 与此同时，CPI 即将成为下一项重要催化剂。若通胀继续偏热，美债收益率与美元可能保持强势；若数据降温，市场对政策宽松的押注可能重新升温。 所以现在真正的问题不是： BTC 是在失去杠杆，还是在失去买家？ 👀 如果只是杠杆被清洗，但现货买盘继续承接，这可能是健康的结构重置。 但如果价格跌破关键支撑，同时 ETF 资金、现货成交量和买盘同步走弱，那就需要重新评估整个上涨逻辑。 $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC #Bitcoin #PPI #CPForget the price chart for a second — Fed hike odds jumping to 74% is the real headline today. That single shift is what's dragging $BTC to $76,990 and $ETH to $2,411, both down about 2.4%, with $SOL pinned near $100. The twist: $BTC funds bled money for two straight days, but $ETH funds kept attracting fresh capital anyway. Price is reacting to rates. Flows are telling a quieter, different story. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows Seeing Oracle's earnings report, my first reaction was that AI money is really damn easy to make, with AI cloud revenue directly up 121%.
Oracle released its fiscal year 2027 Q1 earnings report, with cloud infrastructure revenue hitting $7.4 billion, a year-over-year surge of 121%. Last quarter's growth was 93%, and the quarter before that 84%, each quarter stronger than the last. Total cloud business revenue reached $11.6 billion, up 62% year-over-year, setting a new record.
Even more impressive are the orders. Remaining performance obligations soared to $664 billion, up $26 billion quarter-over-quarter and $209 billion year-over-year. This quarter alone, over $30 billion in new AI cloud contracts were signed, and more than 300,000 GPUs were delivered to AI customers.
After the earnings release, the stock price jumped over 10% in after-hours trading. This veteran database company Oracle has completely repositioned itself as an AI computing power provider. But the data isn't all rosy. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $28.5 billion, compared to just $8.5 billion the same period last year, more than tripling. Free cash flow plunged to negative $5.4 billion. Full-year capital expenditure is expected to reach $70 billion, with an additional $20 to $25 billion to be prepaid for components. In plain terms, orders are pouring in, but they have to spend money first to build data centers and GPUs before the money can come in.
What impact does this have on the crypto world? AI computing power demand is so high that even Oracle's $70 billion investment can't keep up, which is why projects like HYPE, related to decentralized computing, can have whales locking up $2.5 billion. Computing power is hard currency #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% $SNDK Tonight (Beijing time 9/11 20:30), the US will release the August CPI, which is now the "last piece of the inflation puzzle before the Fed's 9/16 meeting." The current market has priced in about a 67%–71% chance of a rate hike in September, the 10-year US Treasury yield is around 4.95%, and oil prices have broken $100, so the CPI is not simply about "inflation levels," but determines whether the Fed will raise rates and how many times. 1. Market consensus - Overall CPI month-on-month: +0.4% (driven by energy, market not very concerned) - Overall CPI year-on-year: 3.4% - Core CPI month-on-month: +0.2% - Core CPI year-on-year: 2.4% → 2.5% falling back to 2.4% The real focus is on core CPI month-on-month: 0.2% or 0.3%, which is the watershed for US stocks. 2. Three scenarios' impact on US stocks 1) Core CPI month-on-month ≤0.2%, no spread of service inflation → US stocks rebound - Rate hike expectations fall, 10-year US Treasury yield falls from around 5% - Nasdaq/semiconductors/AI leaders show the most obvious recovery - S&P 500 may rise +0.5% to 1.5% (JPMorgan scenario) 2) Core CPI month-on-month around 0.25%, overall meets expectations → volatile "good news fully priced in" - Market still believes in a September rate hike, but bets on a December hike do not increase further - US stocks first surge then fall back, tech stocks fluctuate greatly, index range-bound 3) Core CPI month-on-month ≥0.3% The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.96%, a three-year high, just shy of the 5% mark.
Among 122 respondents, about 30% believe that the 5% to 5.25% range is enough to cause the US stock market to pull back 10% from its peak. The true meaning of this figure is not a prediction but an indication that the opposing side has already set the trigger line there.
The mechanism behind rising yields is straightforward: risk-free returns become more expensive, compressing the relative attractiveness of stocks. On the passive side are those holding high positions, while the beneficiaries are those waiting to enter at lower prices. The chief economist at RSM says the market is on the edge of a correction, which itself is an expression of positioning.
For now, this is the only confirmed step: expectations form before prices. Next, watch whether the 10-year yield can hold above 5%. If it does and the US stock market does not fall, it means this transmission chain has dulled, and those who drew the line will need to find a new anchor.
#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #日银年内再加息成焦点 $ETH #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
The reason the market hasn't experienced a cliff-like drop yet is actually not complicated in its core logic.
First, the support at low levels is very solid. A large amount of funds that missed the earlier entry have already placed limit buy orders below, so any slight price pullback will be quickly absorbed.
Second, the short-sellers themselves are showing signs of loosening. Those high-leverage, large-volume shorts are taking profits near key support levels, and covering shorts naturally converts into buying pressure.
Third, the news has not yet entered the true trigger window. Tonight's PPI and tomorrow night's CPI are the key variables determining the short-term direction; major players won't fully exit their positions before these heavy data releases.
ETF fund flows best reflect the real sentiment: yesterday, $BTC net inflows turned negative, and Bitcoin immediately dipped to 77, indicating selling pressure does exist; but $ETH maintained net inflows, with the price still stable at 2470.
This is precisely a divergence signal: funds have not fully withdrawn, just adjusting their structure. BTC is suppressed by ETF redemptions, while ETH is quietly being accumulated by institutional funds.
My response strategy:
Remain on the sidelines before data release, do not predict direction;
After data release, observe volume—only consider following if volume expands and price breaks key levels; low-volume rebounds are just traps;
Focus on ETF flows for BTC, and watch if ETH funds can sustain net inflows.
What truly causes damage is never the market volatility itself, but loading your positions fully before the data is released.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC If big money is truly worried that retail investors can't buy low-priced BTC, recent moves seem more like leaving liquidity to the market rather than actively replenishing it. About $1.2B of BTC liquidity has been withdrawn over the past three days, with about $480M lost just last night, but so far, there has been no strong enough major incremental capital entering the market. What's even more noteworthy is that the market is about to welcome the US CPI, an important macro catalyst. Inflation data will directly affect expectations for Fed rate cuts, and changes in the US dollar and Treasury yields may amplify BTC's short-term volatility. 📌 Next to watch: 🟢 CPI below expectations → Rate cut bets heating up→ Risk assets may find support 🔴 CPI above expectations → yields rise→ BTC may face further selling pressure 👀. If spot funds flow back and trading volume increases simultaneously, it will better prove that buying is returning. So now, don't rush to guess "what the main players are really trying to do." Before capital flows back, any rise needs to be confirmed; True strength requires seeing price, spot trading volume, and capital flow coordinate in tandem $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC #Bitcoin #CPI #Crypto #DailyOrbit$BZ Brent settled at 107.63 last night, rising more than 6% in a single day, with perpetual contracts breaking through 112. WTI once touched 104, then plunged 2% during today's session, falling back to around 100. A swing of five to six dollars within one day is not based on fundamentals but rather geopolitical sentiment grabbing the steering wheel.
The driving logic is straightforward: escalation of US-Iran conflict, continued low traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, EIA estimates that the average shutdown of Middle East crude oil in August has reached 6.7 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia alone shutting down 3.55 million. More troubling is that global commercial crude inventories are at historically low levels, and the strategic reserves of the US and Japan are approaching safety limits, leaving a very thin buffer.
But one variable must be closely watched — Asian buying demand. ING pointed out clearly yesterday: whether the rally can continue depends on whether Asian physical purchases keep up. OPEC just cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the second consecutive downgrade. Demand is cooling, supply is shrinking, and with both sides in a tug of war, oil prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, but the risk-reward ratio for chasing higher prices is no longer favorable. Current price is around $77,000, and the biggest keyword for BTC right now is not "wild swings," but: waiting for direction choice.
🔥 Short-term view: oscillating with a bearish bias, rebound will first face resistance.
* $80,000: the first psychological barrier in the short term; only a firm hold above this marks a clear strengthening.
* Around $77,000: the current tug-of-war zone between bulls and bears.
* $75,000: important support; breaking below may accelerate the search for lower support.
* If volume breaks through $80,000 → $82,000, market sentiment may quickly improve.
⚠️ What’s truly worth watching today is the US CPI + Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Currently, rising oil prices, inflation pressure, and higher US Treasury yields are suppressing risk assets; the 10-year US Treasury yield is already close to 5%.
In a nutshell:
BTC now is like a cat standing at the stairway—afraid of heights going up, afraid of falling going down.
A break above $80K could reignite bullish sentiment; losing $75K, don’t rush to bottom-fish.
Today's strategy: don’t chase the rally, wait for a breakout; don’t panic, wait for support.
For market analysis only, not investment advice.Tonight's CPI could become the most important directional choice for the crypto market in the near term.
The market is currently under pressure. August's nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, with 162,000 new jobs added, which has pushed up expectations for Fed rate hikes again; Thursday's PPI showed a 5.4% year-over-year increase, further reinforcing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, oil prices have climbed back above $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 5%, the dollar is strengthening, and risk assets are under pressure.
The market currently expects August CPI year-over-year to be about 3.4%, with core CPI around 2.4%. The real importance lies not in the data itself but in the "actual value versus expectations" gap. If CPI is lower than expected, especially if core inflation cools significantly, the market may reprice a Fed pause on rate hikes, leading to a pullback in the dollar and Treasury yields, and $BTC could have a chance to challenge $80,000 or even higher again; if CPI is higher than expected, especially if core inflation rebounds, rate hike expectations may intensify further, putting more pressure on $SOL, $ETH, and high-beta altcoins.
Currently, BTC has already pulled back from around $81,000, and long positions in the market have clearly shrunk, indicating that funds are waiting for data to confirm the direction.
So tonight's analysis should be: CPI → Fed rate hike probability → Treasury yields → Dollar → BTC
If inflation cools, this signals a renewed expansion of risk assets; if inflation remains stubborn, the market may further enter a liquidity tightening trade.
Tonight is not just a simple data event but a critical juncture for the market to reprice Fed policy for September.Gold $XAU "Emergency Brake": The Tug of War Before the 4300 Level
COMEX gold is currently quoted at $4385/oz, down 0.5%, with a daily range of 4341–4402; it has retraced 3% from the September 3 high of 4520.
The real culprit is not the war, but interest rates: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.96%, the US dollar index broke above 99, sharply increasing the cost of holding gold, causing a single-day drop from 4480 to 4358 on September 10. Domestic gold ETFs also fell about 1.5% in sync.
The year-to-date gains remain intact, and the 52-week high of 5626 is far from recovered. Tonight's CPI is a watershed moment—holding 4300 and reclaiming 4400 would mean catching a breath.PPI DIDN’T BREAK THE BULL MARKET — IT’S CHANGING WHO GETS TO STAY
Hot PPI wiped out leveraged longs, but the real signal isn’t the $363M in liquidations.It’s that $BTC is still holding around $76K–$77K instead of collapsing deeper.
The market is shifting from “buying on Fed-easing hopes” to “buying only when price proves strength.”
If $76K holds, this flush could be a leverage reset—not the end of the uptrend.But if it breaks,the story changes completely.
Is BTC losing leverage—or losing buyers?$SKHYNIX 1438 didn't hold, contracts are easier to get shaken out than spot.
OKX's SKHYNIX is around 1365 today. Yesterday it dropped from 1404 to 1321 and closed at 1322, today it rose from 1322 to 1365, with an intraday low of 1316. This is tokenized/perpetual trading, tracking Hynix's stock price, but with leverage, funding fees, and open on weekends, the volatility is dirtier than Korean stock spot.
Right now, there are only three useful things on the chart. First, whether the 1316 to 1321 range can really hold; if it can't, it's not a pullback but a continued step down. Second, whether the 1365 level can be reclaimed with volume; if not, selling pressure remains, with resistance at 1408 and 1438 above. Third, don't treat the Korean stock close as contract support; the two can temporarily decouple, especially during US sessions and weekends.
Don't chase the rebound at 1365. If you want to act, either wait for 1320 to stabilize before watching, or wait for it to firmly reclaim 1365 and 1408. At this mid-air position, catching a flying knife is the easiest way to become the opposing side.I've watched a lot of earnings reactions over the years, but this pairing stood out to me. Two companies, same week, both genuinely tied to the AI buildout — and the market treated them like they were telling opposite stories. What I Saw in $ORCL Oracle put up numbers I'd call unambiguous. $19.3 billion in quarterly revenue, up 30% year over year. Cloud infrastructure alone jumped 121%, and management didn't just meet expectations for the year ahead — they raised the full-year target to at leastEveryone is watching $ZEC's ETF, but they don't realize that the vote on September 14 is the real key!
$ZEC has dropped 14% in two days, but one date has been overlooked: September 14, when Zcash will vote to decide on Network Upgrade 7!
This is not a small matter. The Ironwood upgrade was activated on July 28, adding a "revolving door" mechanism to the Orchard privacy pool, limiting anonymous assets leaving the pool. The NU7 vote will decide how this rule will proceed in the future, directly affecting whether the privacy narrative holds — this is the core value proposition of ZEC.
Another more practical angle: Grayscale ZCSH already holds over 550,000 ZEC, about 3% of the circulating supply; on September 8, DCG exchanged 85,705 $ZEC for about $100 million worth of ZCSH shares. Coins are moving into the fund, shares are being sold out.
The macro environment isn't helping either: Brent crude oil price is approaching $110, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.96%, and the probability of a rate hike next week is 71%.
Kuzi thinks 1000 is the support line; if it breaks, watch 950. This round of decline is due to leverage plus macro factors, not the collapse of the privacy story, but when the direction is unclear, it's better not to add positions! #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 市场终于不买AI故事！财报要看真金白银
甲骨文财报出炉，市场不再只听AI叙事，实打实的收入兑现才是定价关键。甲骨文AI云基础设施收入同比大涨121%，较上季度93%进一步提速，营收、EPS双双超预期，剩余履约义务从6380亿攀升至6640亿美元，订单持续落地。
虽然数据中心资本开支高企，自由现金流承压，但公司维持全年开支规划，还上调业绩指引，盘后上涨1.6%。反观Adobe，财报同样超预期、上调指引，盘后却下跌2.29%。
差别就在于：市场对AI商业化愈发谨慎，光有美好预期远远不够，必须看到实实在在的盈利兑现。AI竞争已经从疯狂砸钱，转向比拼变现能力。
这对BTC存在间接支撑：甲骨文、微软等巨头持续加码AI基建，海量资本开支不断消耗法币信用，非主权资产长期叙事并未改变。但短期行情仍被宏观主导，$BTC 在76900附近震荡，方向依旧要看今晚CPI数据。
财务数据只是入场券，兑现能力才是真正的定价锚。刺哥说完了，细品。
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% After holding my $USELESS long positions for so many days, it finally looks close to breaking even.
This price action is starting to resemble a large M-top pattern, which could mean more downside ahead.
Bonk Guy often sells when he posts trade signals, while another coin he holds heavily, $PONS, has already taken a major hit. So why assume $USELESS will continue climbing?
The meme coin game hasn’t really changed.
$USELESS
#DailyOrbit #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction
PPI has already given a hawkish signal; tonight's CPI is the key data that will truly determine the September rate hike expectations.
PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction.
Although the US August PPI released yesterday rose 0.4% month-over-month as expected, the details were clearly hotter, with core PPI continuing to rise, quickly heating up market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September.
After the data release, the market briefly pushed the probability of a September rate hike from about 62% to 74%. 
So what the market is really waiting for now is tonight's August CPI.
Current market expectations:
CPI month-over-month +0.4%
CPI year-over-year about +3.4%
Core CPI month-over-month +0.2%
Core CPI year-over-year about +2.4%. 
This CPI is very important because it is the last key inflation data before the Fed meeting on September 15–16.
For BTC, there are three scenarios to consider:
① CPI below expectations
Inflation cooling → rate hike probability falls → US Treasury yields decline → USD weakens → BTC gains room to rebound.
If core CPI is only 0.1%–0.2%, the market may reprice "Fed pauses rate hikes."
⸻
② CPI meets expectations
If core CPI is +0.2%, basically in line with market expectations, then a one-sided market move may not occur.
Because the market has already priced in a significant portion of the rate hike expectations.
In this case, what’s more likely is:
data release → BTC volatile swings → rate hike expectations repriced → then searching for direction.
⸻
③ CPI above expectations
This is the biggest risk.
If core CPI reaches 0.3% or even higher, the market may further price in:
Persistent inflation → higher probability of September rate hike → US Treasury yields rise → USD strengthens → BTC under pressure.
Especially now that crude oil has climbed back near $100, and the US-Iran conflict has brought new inflation pressure to energy prices, the market worries not just about a one-time energy shock but about high oil prices spreading to transportation, services, and other sectors. 
So tonight, what really matters is not just the year-over-year CPI.
But:
Actual value vs expectations
→ How rate hike probability changes
→ How US Treasury yields move
→ How USD moves
→ Whether BTC funds follow.
The market has shifted from "Will there be a rate hike in September?" to:
"If there is a rate hike, will it continue afterward?"
This is the most important point of tonight's CPI.
In short: PPI has already ignited rate hike expectations; if tonight's CPI again exceeds expectations, BTC pressure may further increase; if CPI clearly cools, it could become an important catalyst for the market to bet again on easing and for BTC to rebound.
In the short term, I will pay special attention to core CPI: 0.1% is dovish, 0.2% basically meets expectations, 0.3% and above is clearly hawkish. $BTC #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction $BTC
PPI exceeding expectations has pushed rate hike expectations very high. If tonight's CPI is also hot, the probability of a rate hike in September could surge to 80%, causing a wave of market panic first. After BTC filled the gap on the daily chart, the rebound was weak; the big bullish candle was swallowed by a bearish candle, with the bearish candle showing high volume and the bullish candle low volume. Bulls can't push it up, funds are withdrawing, short-term bias is bearish. 76200 is the watershed: breaking below it and quickly recovering may lead to consolidation; near the previous low, longs can be tried; if it breaks down effectively, there is a vacuum below, possibly leading to a continuous waterfall drop, looking at around 71000 near half of the weekly big bullish candle.
Currently, the market has priced in rate hike expectations too fully; if CPI really exceeds expectations, it might actually be the last drop; if CPI isn't that hot, shorts will cover quickly. The technical side is bearish, no doubt, but at 76200 longs and shorts will fight; don't heavily bet on direction before the data. A break below with quick recovery is a fake breakdown, low longs have a chance; if it truly breaks and can't recover, don't bottom-fish, wait and see around 71000. In this kind of market, position size is more important than direction; staying alive means having a next trade.From the current order book structure, there is still significant buying support below the $75,000–$77,000 range. In other words, although there is still room for short-term volatility, liquidity below is not thin. To see consecutive and deep drops, stronger macro bearish factors are needed. Recently, after BTC retreated from its stage high near $82,000, market sentiment has noticeably become more cautious. Meanwhile, US spot BTC ETF funds have maintained strong inflows for several weeks, with cumulative inflows reaching about $3.8 billion over three weeks, indicating institutional demand has not completely disappeared. What truly needs to be watched now is the macro environment. Oil prices are approaching $110 again, the US 10-year Treasury yield is also close to 5%, and inflation and Fed policy expectations are putting pressure on risk assets. Therefore, I won't simply interpret the current pullback as a trend reversal. If the support near $75,000 holds, BTC still has a chance to challenge the $80,000 or even $82,000 range again. In the short term, I will focus on watching: 🟢 75,000–76,500: core support zone 🟢; 78,500–80,000: first resistance zone 🟢 82,000–83,000: strong resistance near previous highs. As long as the market does not experience sudden liquidity deterioration, continued large-scale ETF outflows, and macro data further pushing rate hike expectations, I won't easily judge that BTC will fall back below $70,000. Of course,This time, I'm not so confident in treating the drop as a normal pullback.
After such a long sideways movement, the market has already worn down many people's expectations.
When $BTC BTC falls to the lower boundary of the range, someone steps in.
When $ETH ETH drops near 2400, someone buys the dip.
After several times, everyone gradually forms a consensus:
It won't fall further, just buy and that's it.
But the problem is, what the market likes to do most is to first let you form a habit, then suddenly change the rules of the game.
After last night's PPI, BTC broke below 77,000, and I actually started to be cautious.
Not because this single candlestick is that scary.
But because the external environment is starting to change.
US Treasury yields are rising again, inflation expectations are heating up, and the market's expectations for the Fed's September policy are also shifting.
Previously, capital was willing to give BTC a higher risk premium, but now it’s recalculating:
Is holding risky assets really worth it?
So I'm not in a hurry to guess the bottom now.
Instead, I will wait for a rebound.
If BTC rebounds to around 77,500–78,000 and still shows no obvious volume breakout, I still lean towards shorting.
Next, watch 76,000.
If that level can't hold either, then around 71,000 is the real level I want to observe.
Same for ETH.
If 2400 is only temporarily broken and then quickly recovered, it might be a false breakout.
But if after breaking down it can't reclaim that level on the rebound, then around 2100 must be watched.
$ZEC even more so.
It has surged from around 800 to over 1300, nearly doubling in two weeks.
This kind of market easily creates an illusion:
"It's so strong, how could it fall?"
It's precisely at times like this that I won't chase.
I prefer to wait for the market to wash out the chips.
So my current strategy is actually very simple:
Don't guess the bottom, don't chase shorts, wait for a rebound.
If the rebound is weak, short.
If the rebound is strong, wait.
As long as the structure isn't broken, don't panic sell; if the structure really breaks, don't stubbornly hold on because you can't bear to stop loss.
Tonight there's also CPI.
Then there's FOMC coming up.
The real big volatility may not have started yet.
The most important thing now is not to judge how far BTC can fall, but to avoid using up all your bullets before the real market moves arrive. #OKX星球话题来啦 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $UNITREE
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1. The Three Core Reasons for the Decline
1. Valuation Bubble Overextension — Increasingly Overpriced
UNITREE is the perpetual contract for Yushi Technology (A-share 688836) stock, which is inherently "not cheap":
• A-share issuance price at ¥150.80, with a PE ratio as high as 219 times, far exceeding the typical 30-60 times range in the robotics industry
• After entering the crypto space, an additional layer of emotional speculative premium was added, with the peak market cap exceeding $30 billion
• The price surged from $60 to $155 (8/4-8/19), indicating an extremely overheated market and a valuation correction following the fade of speculative hype
2. Sharp Drop in Underlying Stock + Contract Correlation
This is the most direct trigger. The UNITREE contract is highly correlated with the underlying stock:
• After the stock’s listing, it surged 5 times on the first day but then continuously declined, with a market cap evaporation of about ¥220 billion
• On a certain trading day, the stock opened down 4%, volume ratio soared to 5.41, order ratio was -83.54%, institutional funds heavily sold at the open, causing the contract to quickly drop to around $80
• Insufficient fundamental support: Q1 net profit excluding non-recurring items dropped 52.55% YoY, and the H1 performance outlook remains downward, breaking the "high growth" speculative narrative
3. Derivatives Capital Structure Bearish — Leverage Liquidation Amplifies Decline
The leverage mechanism of perpetual contracts accelerates and magnifies the decline:
• Funding rate turned negative: short positions have lower holding costs, institutions shorted at high valuations, continuously suppressing rebounds
• Negative funding rate expanded to 7.7 times, short crowding surged
• Once the price breaks down, quantitative stop-loss → forced liquidation → market maker hedging triggers a chain reaction; with UNITREE’s already thin liquidity, a few sell orders can break through, creating a negative feedback spiral
• High leverage (up to 125x) causes long position liquidations, further driving the decline
2. Essence: Valuation correction after speculative hype fades, combined with derivatives leverage liquidation, not a complete fundamental collapse (Yushi remains the first humanoid robot company listed on the A-share market, with long-term logic still intact). 1. US Consumer Price Index to be released tonight at 20:30, market rate hike expectations maxed Tonight at 20:30, the US August Consumer Price Index will be released. Currently, the market generally expects overall data to rise 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, with the core index 0.2% month-on-month. Interest rate futures instruments show a 70% probability of a 25 basis point hike in September. Although Bank of America believes that even if the data meets expectations, it is sufficient to support a rate hike, Nomura Securities still expects the Fed to hold steady. Focus on logic: If rate hikes materialize, it will be the first time since July 2023 that risk asset pricing systems face revaluation. Currently, the transmission of oil prices to core inflation after breaking 100 is the Fed's most feared variable. Market impact: Overall, negative for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and risk assets across the market; But if the core index falls below 0.2%, the market is likely to see an oversold rebound. Technical levels: Bitcoin resistance is focused on 78,034 (4-hour moving average), 78,492 (50-period moving average), and the 80,000 round number level; Support levels below are at 76,464 (intraday low) and the psychological level at 75,000. Trend analysis: Before data releases, the market is likely to remain in a narrow range of shrinking volume. Before the boots are released, the success rate of chasing gains and selling losses is extremely low; it is recommended to patiently wait for the direction to become clear. 2. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot funds continue to lose blood, institutions proactively reduce positions before data releases According to the latest monitoring data, Bitcoin spot funds saw a net outflow of $282.7 million yesterday, with a well-known asset management product outflowing $164.3 million leading the way[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
My DMs are blowing up again, everyone is asking Pharaoh: PPI is running hot, is BTC about to be taken away by the Fed?
Pharaoh says, don’t rush to panic yet, PPI is just the appetizer, tonight’s 8:30 CPI is the main course.
US August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, in line with expectations; year-over-year 5.4%, slightly above expectations. Core PPI year-over-year 4.7%, also a bit hotter than market estimates. The main reason is still energy price hikes, diesel surged 24.1% in one month, this isn’t just refueling, it’s basically cremating your wallet.
Hot data means inflation pressure remains, the Fed’s idea of rate cuts is still off the table, and they might even reconsider rate hikes.
But tonight, the real direction will be decided by CPI.
If CPI year-over-year is below 3.4% and core month-over-month doesn’t exceed 0.2%, the market will think producer price increases haven’t fully passed to consumers yet, and BTC has a chance to rebound to $78,500–$79,500.
If data meets expectations, it will likely first spike up and down, shaking out both bulls and bears, then continue to oscillate between $75,000–$78,000.
If CPI hits 3.5% or higher, and core month-over-month reaches 0.3% or more, then it’s really hot. Once BTC falls below $75,000, the next support to watch is around $73,000.
Pharaoh’s judgment is: tonight’s data is more likely to meet or slightly exceed expectations, with the market leaning toward weak volatility.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won’t lose its way! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Title: Why $BTC $ETH & $ZEC Dropped — Macro Risk Is Back in Control 📉 Why did $BTC $ETH and $ZEC sell off so hard? I think it’s a combination of several macro factors: 1️⃣ CPI uncertainty triggered risk-off positioning and early hedging 2️⃣ U.S. Treasury yields pushed higher 3️⃣ Oil prices surged above $100, adding more inflation pressure Together, these created a strong shakeout across crypto. My long positions took a painful hit yesterday 😭 Lesson learned: around major macro events, reduc$BTC and $USDT are used for foreign trade settlement. What really matters is whether the "demand" can turn into "sustainable liquidity." The report states that Iran has relaxed some foreign exchange restrictions, allowing exporters to use local crypto channels to apply overseas income for import settlements. This is a positive narrative for the crypto market, but it should not be directly equated with buying pressure: cross-border settlement leans more towards channel demand, and the availability, compliance, and sanction risks of $USDT remain core constraints; BTC is more likely to benefit from awareness diffusion rather than immediate settlement volume. Going forward, pay attention to two points: whether there are clearer official implementation rules, and whether related transactions can continue to be realized in a restricted environment. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 BTC had $280 million withdrawn in one day, but ETH barely dropped
I just looked at the ETF and the market together, and something feels off.
On September 10, the US spot ETF data showed a net outflow of $282.7 million for BTC and $29.9 million for ETH. Both are seeing outflows, but BTC is bearing nearly ten times the selling pressure of ETH.
$BTC at 77,139, down 1.30% in 24 hours, high 78,154, low 76,464; $ETH at 2,472, down only 0.10% in 24 hours, high 2,484, low 2,405.
BTC has already dropped back to 77,000, while ETH is close to its 24-hour high. The funds can’t really be considered "returned"—ETH ETFs are still seeing outflows, but at least this round of selling pressure isn’t hitting both legs simultaneously.
I’m not in a hurry to interpret this as funds switching from BTC to ETH. A real rotation would require BTC to hold 76,464 and then reclaim 78,154, while ETH simultaneously breaks above 2,485 on volume and then surpasses 2,500.
Conversely, if BTC falls below 76,464 and ETH also loses 2,405, today’s relative strength is just an illusion before the data.
So I won’t chase longs just because ETH is a bit stronger, nor will I chase shorts in the middle of BTC at 77,000. The most frustrating kind of market is this: BTC looks weak, but ETH doesn’t give you a comfortable shorting point. I’ll wait until the strength and weakness play out into a clear result before making a move.
$BTC $ETH
#OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 Oracle's AI cloud revenue rose 121%, but my first reaction wasn't excitement.
Market makers seeing this number don't first think about who profited, but who is taking the risk.
The data looks like this: AI cloud revenue up 121%, backlog contracts piled high.
But capital expenditures are surging simultaneously, and free cash flow is being squeezed to the point of suffocation.
What are they betting on: betting that demand will keep exploding, renting computing power is more profitable than selling cards.
But depreciation is ruthless; if orders lag even slightly, profits get eaten away.
I guess this surge is in expectations, not actual performance.
Earnings reports first spike then choose direction — I know this script well.
The question is, how much of this 121% is real demand, and how much is pre-locked orders?
What do you all think?
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 $BTC #Red Sea risk expands, $100 oil price reappears
Houthi forces have taken the Red Sea port of Mocha, $BZ Brent crude directly closed at 107. This wave of geopolitical premium is fully loaded, but BTC crashed first as a warning.
The lowest this morning dipped to 76600, the group chat was full of wailing and crying. The logic is not complicated: oil price surges → inflation expectations explode → Fed rate cuts become harder → risk assets get hit first. On the bond side, the 30-year yield has already hit 5.35%, one point above the Fed's target range upper limit, and funding costs are visibly tightening.
But there is an interesting data point. Rekt Capital points out that 78300 is now the dividing line between bulls and bears; a weekly close below confirms a bearish trend, currently it is just "retesting." Ted Pillows is more optimistic, saying if the weekly can hold back above 83000, the year-end target of 100,000 remains unchanged.
Personal view: oil price $CL and $BTC do not have a stable direct correlation; there is a transmission chain of "Fed expectations" in between. The real thing to watch is Friday's CPI; if core data is driven up by energy costs, that will be a real problem.
At this point, those without positions are more anxious than those holding. Around 77000, spot ETFs are buying, but hesitantly. Let's wait through Friday.
#Red Sea risk expands, $100 oil price reappears @OKX中文 The U.S. Senate has released a new version of the "CLARITY Act"—Is it a positive or negative for crypto?
1. Overall still favorable to crypto
The core direction remains unchanged: clarifying who the SEC and CFTC regulate, providing clearer rules for exchanges, projects, and institutions. This is a long-term positive for $BTC, $ETH, and compliant platforms.
2. The new version starts cracking down on "fake DeFi"
Truly decentralized protocols may gain clearer space; however, projects that claim to be DeFi but have teams, Admin Keys, or a few people actually controlling them may face registration and regulation. This part is somewhat negative.
3. September 15 is the key date
The new version was released before the vote, essentially aiming to secure 60 votes to advance the bill. If the procedural vote passes, the market will trade on the expectation that "U.S. crypto regulation is officially landing"; if it fails, short-term sentiment may be hit.
In short: CLARITY is overall positive, but the new version is not "deregulation"—it paves the way for compliant projects while cleaning up fake decentralization.ECB raised interest rates again by 25bp to 2.5% on September 10, marking the second hike this year; the market now further prices in about 60bp of rate hikes before April 2027. Meanwhile, Brent has risen to around $105, and Germany's 10-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 2011.
This combination is not friendly to BTC:
Oil ↑ → Inflation ↑ → Central Bank Tightening ↑ → Bond Yield ↑ → Risk-free Return ↑ → Risk Asset Valuation ↓.
So I’m actually less concerned about whether BTC has formed a Golden Cross.
BTC has basically been capped between $77,100 and $81,300 over the last 20 trading days, and $77,100 happens to be a very important spot trading volume concentration area this year.
What’s really worth watching is:
After global interest rate expectations rise again, can BTC still hold this area?
In investing, I’ve always felt that “not falling” carries more information than “rising fast.”
Rising in a good environment might just be Beta.
Not falling in a bad environment shows that someone is truly absorbing the supply.ETH has an interesting scenario today: it climbed back from 2404 to 2472, and the 1-hour MACD has also adjusted near the zero line, looking like it wants to stabilize. But don't be too optimistic yet; here are three details for you. First, the whale that added shorts yesterday opened positions at an average of 2461. Now the price is 2472, already above its cost — it's at a floating loss but hasn't exited and is still holding. The short positions haven't been withdrawn, indicating that this level is still being pressured by someone. For the rebound to go further, it has to first get past the $24.16 million it holds. Second, ETH's rebound from 2404 has been continuously resisted around the 2490-2500 range, where the 1-hour BOLL middle band plus the round number resistance was never broken, and volume hasn't picked up. Third, BTC at least has triple support at 76,000, but ETH's 2404 has only been tested once, so whether it holds is still unknown. My stance is straightforward: before the CPI release, ETH will grind between 2404 and 2500; whoever breaks out with volume first will decide the direction. I'm cautious — the two resistances at 2490 and 2500 are too close. Even if CPI brings good news tonight, ETH will find it hard to V-shaped back directly. First, watch if it can hold the 2461-2441 area; only if it stabilizes there can we talk about recovery. If CPI is worse than expected, 2404 is likely not the bottom; next support is at 2355. Don't rush to trade before the 20:30 data release tonight; let's act after the data lands.Analysis of the Movement of Instant Bitcoin Funds (BTC ETFs) and Their Impact on the Market Recently, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have witnessed a notable shift; after a period of continuous buying that represented a major support force, the funds recorded outflows and successive redemption waves totaling hundreds of millions of dollars within a few days. Reasons for the Shift in Institutional Behavior Inflation and Labor Market Concerns: Strong economic data and rising oil prices have renewed expectations of keeping interest rates high, prompting institutions to reduce risk by lowering their shares Oil prices suddenly plunged, BTC rebounded, so why are BNB and DOGE still down?
#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
The afternoon market looked like a beach split in two after the tide receded; the leading half has already pulled back, while the smaller players are still drying out.
The change comes from the oil market: once the news of the Red Sea ceasefire broke, Brent crude plunged over 3% intraday, removing the biggest inflationary pressure, and US stock futures rose across the board accordingly. BTC quietly rebounded from 76,800 to around 77,300, and $ETH even turned positive, reaching 2,469. But looking down, $BNB is still stuck at 709, down about 4.4% in 24 hours, and $DOGE fell over 6%, hovering around 0.08 and unable to rise.
Why do the leaders move first while the smaller ones don't? Because the rebound relies on macroeconomic relief; the first stop for money is always BTC and ETH, the large-cap safe havens; BNB and DOGE have heavy trapped positions from earlier, and no one dares to buy in the four hours before CPI, creating a time gap of "leaders catching their breath, smaller players kneeling."
If tonight's CPI confirms cooling, funds will spill over from BTC and ETH, and the kneeling BNB and DOGE will catch up; if it heats up again, the leaders' small rebound will be given back first, and the smaller players will have to kneel even longer. Don't rush to take the "leaders' recovery" as "the whole market opening up."ETH quietly turned green, so why is SOL still stuck below 100?
#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
One has already straightened up, while the other is still lying at the threshold. They are so close yet so far apart, and the problem lies at this 100 level.
This afternoon, oil prices plunged and US stock futures rose. $ETH rebounded from 2,441 all the way up to 2,469; but $SOL is still hovering around 99.7, down about 3.5% in 24 hours. The integer level of 100 is clearly right above, but it just can't be crossed.
The difference lies in the "weight of the threshold." There is no such integer barrier above ETH that the entire market is watching, so funds can return and easily push it into the green; the 100 level for SOL is a psychological position that has been repeatedly contested in recent days, with some bottom-fishers trapped below and some sellers above trying to break even. Every time it touches 100, there are sell orders, and without volume, it can't be broken through. Also, SOL is high beta, so before CPI settles, funds prefer to return to ETH as a ballast rather than tackle this tough SOL barrier.
If tonight's CPI cools down and volume increases, once SOL stabilizes above 100, the suppressed rebound will be released in concentration, with greater elasticity than ETH; if the data heats up again, ETH will find support at 2,400, but SOL will most likely fall back to 95 first. Until the threshold is broken with volume, don't mistake "touching" for "standing above."
#BTC spot ETF continuous outflows The $OKB buyback and burn actually stopped a year ago, so why is it still being asked?
Many people still say OKB relies on "fee buyback and burn" for deflation. This mechanism stopped in August 2025.
At that time, OKX burned 65,256,000 OKB at once, then removed the minting and burning functions from the contract, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million. After that, on-chain gas fees go to the network sequencer, and tokens are no longer burned.
Early OKB was supported by exchange profit buybacks, but now that engine is dismantled and replaced by on-chain demand from the X Layer.
So the current scarcity comes from "fixed total supply," not "continuous deflation." The difference is: the former is a stock fact, the latter requires ongoing demand.
What about demand?
$OKB currently trades about $15 million in 24 hours, thin as paper among mainstream coins.
Today OKB dropped 3.31%, currently priced at 109.35, breaking below MA20 (111.8). From the historical high of 258.6 in August 2025, it’s still down by more than half.
Conclusion: The fixed total supply of 21 million is truly scarce, but it only has value when there is real on-chain demand on the X Layer. That story has yet to unfold.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the 5% threshold, and repurchase operations are struggling to stop the yield from rising.
US August PPI data has reignited inflation concerns, with PPI rising 0.4% month-over-month and climbing to 5.4% year-over-year. A 4.2% surge in energy prices is the main driver, directly pushing the market's probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 70%. Service sector prices only increased slightly by 0.1%, indicating that current inflationary pressure is mainly concentrated in energy and commodity sectors.
Affected by the data, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.95%, just a step away from the critical 5% mark; the 30-year long bond yield also rose to 5.37%. The US Treasury conducted bond repurchase operations, actually repurchasing about $5.19 billion of 10- to 20-year bonds within a $6 billion limit, but this operation did not stop the decline in long bond prices or the upward trend in yields.
The core market conflict now is whether the 5% US Treasury yield can attract enough long-term funds to enter and take over; or whether energy inflation, potential fiscal stimulus combined with monetary tightening expectations will continue to resonate, forcing various risk assets to further deleverage.
US Treasury yields are the pricing anchor for global major asset classes. Once it stabilizes above 5%, global stocks and crypto assets will continue to face pressure. In a high interest rate environment, funds flow back to fixed income assets, and risk asset valuations will continue to be suppressed. The macro market game has great uncertainties, news can cause violent fluctuations at any time, and leveraged trading risks are extremely high. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续流出 Tonight at 20:30, the US August CPI inflation data is about to be released!
Next week is the Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting, and this is the last card before the market opens, directly related to the upcoming interest rate direction.
The core of this data focuses on one point: whether the previous energy and supply chain costs have actually penetrated the core inflation?
Tonight is very likely to see a highly volatile market, with a high probability of one-sided moves or spikes.
For those running grid or limit order strategies, it is recommended to tighten risk controls first, check stop losses and positions carefully, and avoid being caught by liquidity shocks the moment the data drops Oracle AI cloud revenue surged 121%, so why did the stock only rise 2%?
Oracle's earnings report looks explosive, with OCI revenue soaring 121%, RPO rising to $664 billion, and both revenue and EPS beating expectations.
But the market simply isn't buying it; xORCL only rose 2.41%, and xADBE even fell 3.65%.
Why? Because capital expenditures remain high, and free cash flow is still under pressure.
The market no longer pays just for pure AI investment but scrutinizes monetization ability harshly.
AI competition is shifting from competing on investment to competing on realization. Without solid profit support, even the most impressive data is just paper wealth.
Don't be fooled by superficial growth; hold your hand.
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% Oil prices suddenly plunged, Red Sea ceasefire, market caught a breather before CPI
Three hours left until CPI, the market first received an unexpected warm breeze, while a bunch of altcoins continued to drop, explained separately
BTC is the most sensitive, originally still getting hit around 77000, but recovered in the afternoon with two pieces of news: Brent crude plunged over 3% back to 102, and Houthi forces announced a ceasefire on the Red Sea west coast. With the geopolitical premium retreating, US stock futures surged directly, and BTC also turned positive to 77300. The logic is straightforward—half of this inflation anxiety is driven by oil prices; when oil prices fall, the pressure to raise interest rates eases a bit
SOL wasn’t so lucky, at 99.7, it fell below the $100 integer level again. A typical "no stabilization in the market, high beta assets lie flat first" scenario, with repeated battles at the 100 mark and bears slightly dominant. The good news is on-chain RWA and DEX data remain strong, indicating it’s being unfairly punished by sentiment; the risk is if CPI surprises on the downside, supports at 95 and 90 will be quickly tested. To bet on a rebound, the area below 100 is the observation zone
DOGE continues to lie at 0.083, lacking even a decent rebound. No buybacks, no lockups, purely relying on popularity, risk appetite shrinks and it keeps drifting down. If 0.08 breaks again, it will return to previous lows. At this point, it can’t even be called "unfairly punished," more like marginalized, so better to avoid for now
Geopolitical easing gave the market a cushion, but whether BTC can hold 77000 and SOL can reclaim 100 ultimately depends on tonight. Light positions before data, a warm breeze doesn’t mean a reversal, don’t mistake an oversold rebound for a trend reversal.The AI story has been told for so long, and the market is finally asking: Has the money actually been made? 👀
Just finished reading Oracle's earnings report, and this time there’s really something.
Oracle's AI cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121% year-over-year, up from 93% last quarter, with growth still accelerating. Both revenue and EPS exceeded expectations, and remaining performance obligations rose from $638 billion to $664 billion, indicating that orders are not just on PPT slides but are being continuously fulfilled.
Although data center capital expenditures remain high and free cash flow is under pressure, the company did not cut its full-year spending plan; instead, it raised its performance guidance. The market responded accordingly, with after-hours trading rising about 1.6%.
Interestingly, Adobe also beat expectations and raised its full-year guidance, yet its after-hours stock fell 2.29%.
This actually reveals a lot:
The market is no longer satisfied with the story that "AI is great."
Everyone knows how much is being invested in AI; what truly determines valuation is when these investments can turn into revenue, profit, and cash flow.
So the upcoming competition among AI giants may have shifted from "who spends the most money" to **"who can actually make the money back."**
Oracle’s earnings report being recognized by the market essentially sends a good signal: the massive investment in AI infrastructure is starting to convert into solid revenue growth, rather than just burning cash.
#DailyOrbit HYPE spot ETF experiences massive capital outflow, why did the most loyal institutions run first?
After its spectacular debut in May, the HYPE spot ETF has ultimately faced a tough battle with capital outflows. Following a June surge that attracted 300 million and Grayscale's single-day inflow of 108 million, weekly inflows plummeted from 56.9 million to 12.3 million, and in the past two days, it even turned into a net outflow of 18.25 million. The most painful part is that all outflows came from Bitwise, which previously had the strongest inflows and promised to increase token holdings by dedicating 10% of management fees.
In fact, there were early warnings on-chain. Bitwise has frequently transferred coins to Coinbase, with nearly 40,000 tokens moved in a single transaction on July 28 alone. Such on-chain movements often precede subscription and redemption data by several steps. The three ETFs hold about 2.25% of homogeneous staking yields, tightly bound by a closed-loop demand relying on approximately 97% protocol fee buybacks. When the wind is favorable, this buying flywheel pushes the token price to soar wildly, but now the pressure is on the stressed side.
Looking at my holdings, I’m quite anxious. What if this net outflow is just the beginning of institutional flight? If the positive flywheel backfires into a stampede, the crash will be ruthless. But if this is just normal turnover after the pulse period, the high-fee buyback base should be enough to withstand the capital outflow. Wouldn’t cutting losses now just hand the chips over to institutions for a shakeout?
Whether the closed loop is a castle in the air or not, this week’s capital outflow is the best touchstone. Do you think HYPE can withstand this wave of institutional retreat, or is the closed-loop myth about to be broken?Oracle surged while Adobe slipped, sending a clear message: the AI bull market isn’t dead, but the “add AI and watch the stock rise” era is over. Investors now want proof that AI can generate real revenue and profits. Watch four things: AI-driven orders and sales, pricing power and margins, manageable capex, and stronger cash flow. AI exposure alone isn’t enough anymore—execution and monetization#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows