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🚨 The jobs market just threw the Fed a curveball. Now CPI has the final say.
U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23K, completely missing expectations for an 80K increase.
And it gets more interesting:
May + June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103K.
That makes this look less like a one-month glitch and more like a genuine cooling in the labor market.
Markets reacted quickly, with expectations for a September rate hike falling.
And for risk assets, that’s potentially good news.
📉 Treasury yields ease
📉 Dollar pressure cools
📈 Liquidity expectations improve
That gives assets like AI stocks, gold, and $BTC more room to breathe.
But I wouldn’t celebrate just yet.
There’s still one major wildcard: inflation.
And that means the next CPI report could matter even more than this jobs report.
If inflation continues to cool:
Weak jobs + weak inflation = less room for the Fed to stay hawkish.
That could be a strong tailwind for liquidity-sensitive assets.
But if oil pushes inflation higher:
Weak jobs + sticky inflation = the Fed’s nightmare scenario.
The economy slows, but inflation refuses to cooperate.
So the baton has officially been passed.
NFP delivered the warning. CPI gets the final shot. 🎯
For $BTC and the broader risk market, the next inflation print could tell us whether this is the beginning of a liquidity tailwind—or just another temporary relief rally.
CPI is now the number I’m watching. 👀
#Bitcoin #CPI #NFP #FederalReserve #Crypto #Macro #Liquidity
#DailyOrbit 单币资金异动榜
$MMT 这波不能只盯价格，现货有没有接、合约有没有加仓才是重点。
价格和未平仓量一起往上，15m读数 +1.82%/+3.72%，新增杠杆资金正在参与。 主动买占 54.8%；后面最重要的是价格别滞涨、持仓别突然掉头。Crypto doesn’t necessarily need more buyers. It needs a new reason for people to buy. 👀
Here’s the uncomfortable truth about this cycle:
Look at U.S. stocks.
There’s been one powerful narrative after another pulling in fresh money—AI, SpaceX, optical communications, and emerging tech themes.
Gold has its own story too:
De-dollarization + safe-haven demand.
Now look at crypto.
What’s the big new story bringing fresh capital into the market?
The ETF narrative has already been largely priced in.
Layer-2 hype has cooled off.
Meme coins can still explode, but a lot of the rotation feels more like money moving from one trader to another rather than genuinely bringing new money into the ecosystem.
And that distinction matters.
It doesn’t mean crypto can’t go higher.
It means the market may be missing the catalyst that brings a new wave of capital from outside the existing crypto crowd.
That could be why $BTC continues to grind sideways.
Maybe the next big move isn’t waiting for another technical breakout.
Maybe it’s waiting for the next big story.
So I’m watching one question:
Who creates the next crypto narrative that everyone suddenly wants exposure to?
AI?
Tokenization?
DePIN?
Stablecoins?
Something we haven’t even seen yet?
Because when that narrative arrives, the money usually follows.
What do you think the next big crypto narrative will be? 👀
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Altcoins #CryptoNarrative #CryptoTrading 🚨 NFP can make you money—or trap you in seconds.
If you’re trading $BTC or $ETH around tonight’s jobs report, don’t trust the first move.
NFP forecast: 83K
Previous: 57K
Unemployment: 4.2%
Here’s how the trap usually plays out:
NFP drops.
📉 BTC dumps.
You think, “Easy short.”
Five minutes later…
📈 BTC reverses and starts ripping higher.
What just happened?
The market doesn’t trade the headline.
It trades the interpretation.
A stronger-than-expected payroll number could push Treasury yields higher and pressure risk assets.
But if wage growth comes in soft, traders could still price in easier monetary policy—and BTC may reverse higher.
The same thing works in the other direction.
A weak NFP might initially send Bitcoin higher on rate-cut expectations.
But if unemployment jumps too much, recession fears can quickly take over and send risk assets lower.
🎯 My NFP checklist:
1️⃣ NFP vs. expectations
2️⃣ Unemployment rate
3️⃣ Average hourly earnings
4️⃣ Previous-month revisions
5️⃣ Treasury yields
6️⃣ DXY reaction
7️⃣ $BTC / $ETH price confirmation
The first candle creates the volatility.
The next move often reveals the real direction.
So don’t rush to trade the headline.
Let the market react first. Then trade the confirmation.
Because FOMO is not a strategy. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#NFP #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoTrading #TradingStrategy
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $BICO
8月6日， 美国总统特朗普签署公告，对进口多晶硅及衍生产品设定最低进口价并加征15%关税.
措施将于12月4日美国东部时间凌晨12时01分起生效，旨在保护本土多晶硅、半导体及光伏供应链安全.@OKX星球
美国此举试图通过贸易工具重塑多晶硅产业链.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克
但政策落地可能推高本土光伏和芯片成本，同时面临中国反制及全球供应链调整的挑战. MMT has caught the 🔥 rhythm of this rally
Earlier, I had already taken profits and exited, waiting for a pullback to stabilize, then re-entering at the right point, and now all have successfully secured my position.
Don't blindly chase highs; patiently wait for pullback opportunities. Good price points are far more important than impulsive entry. Feel free to share your ideas $MMT
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes There has been a significant move in the geopolitical landscape: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Joint Defense Agreement in Mecca, where any armed attack on any of the three countries is considered an attack on all three countries—a parallel alliance structure similar to NATO terms. Turkey even deliberately explained that it would not engage in conflict with NATO.
Those who understand understand that this restructuring of the defense alliance won't immediately price the market in the short term, but it is the underlying variable that will gradually change the Middle East risk premium. A military mutual protection network spanning the Gulf and South Asia is taking shape, meaning any future conflict at any point is more likely to be amplified as a bloc confrontation. Oil and safe-haven assets are lines that need to be hung on the wall for a long time. No need to rush to trade them; remember them first. Let's walk and see.#黄金升破4300美元, are funds betting on rate cuts or safe havens? Everyone, gold has really surged this week. Spot gold rose to $4,339, up more than 7 points for the week, and futures also surged above 4,400, directly breaking through the previous consolidation range. This round of rally is not driven by a single factor; several logics are pushing simultaneously.
The first is expectations for rate cuts. Nonfarm farm unexpectedly turned negative, and May and June data were revised down by 103,000 people. Market expectations for a rate hike in September dropped from 56% to 44%. The dollar weakened, real interest rates fell, and the direct pressure on gold was eased.
The second is the demand for safe-haven assets. Geopolitical situations, energy inflation, and central bank gold purchases continue to support gold. Funds are not only trading interest rate cuts, but also making safe-haven allocations.
The third issue is liquidity. CFTC data shows net long positions in gold are increasing, indicating institutions are re-betting on precious metals. This is not just short-term speculation; some funds are making mid-term allocation adjustments.
For the crypto world, this round of gold rally is a signal worth watching. The upset in the nonfarm payrolls prompted the market to reprice rate cut expectations, gold moved first, and BTC also rose above 65,000. But the driving logic for gold and BTC is not exactly the same. Gold has additional support from central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risk aversion, while BTC relies more on liquidity and improved risk appetite.
If this round of gold rally is a temporary rebound in loose expectations, BTC will benefit accordingly. If gold marks the beginning of long-term allocation of safe-haven assets, the takeaway for BTC is that the macro environment is shifting from tightening to the edge of easing, but CPI still needs confirmation of direction.
Everyone, gold has already gone a step ahead. A couple of days ago, during a livestream, Mi Ge was bullish and had already risen by over 100 points. Whether BTC can keep up depends on next week's CPI as the first test point. What do you all think about this round of gold rally—is it a rebound or a reversal? Let's talk in the comments. Wishing everyone a great weekend.Midday Analysis: Weekend Volatility, $BTC and $ETH Waiting for Next Week's Catalyst
From morning until now, BTC has drawn an almost horizontal line between 64,800 and 65,000. ETH has also remained untouched between 1913 and 1919. After that nonfarm payroll injection, the market entered a typical weekend mode—direction disappears, volatility narrows, and both bulls and bears take a break.
This isn't a bad thing. This week, from the SPCX earnings unlock, SanDisk's earnings, the US-Iran ceasefire, to CLARITY's delay to negative nonfarm payroll growth, five days have packed a normal month's worth of catalysts. BTC went through a roller coaster from 62,800 to 65,358, ETH climbed from 1,820 all the way to 1,944, then crashed back. By Saturday, the market was tired and needed a break.
Right now, BTC is stuck at the 65,000 mark, neither going up nor down. It's not that the bulls lack momentum—it's just that there's no momentum over the weekend, so there's no need to push hard during the two days with the weakest liquidity. The same goes for bears. Negative nonfarm employment growth has dispelled rate hike expectations, so a rate hike in September is basically out of reach. Selling off at this time is basically going against your own logic. Neither side needs to act; the price just sits there.
ETH's situation is similar: the 1900 support has been held for five days without breaking, and the resistance at 1927 still hangs ahead. Over the weekend, it is highly likely to continue grinding between 1900 and 1930. Upward movements require new catalysts next week; downward moments also lack reason.
Key levels are not complicated—BTC defending at 64,800, attacking 65,000; ETH defending at 1,900, attacking 1,927. The probability of breaking either of these two ranges over the weekend is low. The real direction will depend on Monday to see how the market fully absorbs the impact of nonfarm payrolls.
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
#黄金升破4300美元, are the funds at risk of interest rate cuts or safe havens?
#俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效, the boundaries between transactions and payments are clear A piece of news that everyone has swept over but is crucial to the inflation chain: Ukraine has agreed to stop attacking non-Russian oil tankers and Kazakh oil facilities in the Black Sea; Meanwhile, Kpler data shows that only six oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz this week.
On one side, the risk of oil transport in the Black Sea is easing (positive supply, suppressing oil prices); on the other, the sharp reduction in Hormuz traffic (negative supply, pushing oil prices) is a tug-of-war. Why should crypto players care? Because oil prices are upstream of inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are directly tied to the pace of rate cuts and real interest rates—this chain will ultimately be transmitted to the water level of risk assets. Geopolitics isn't meant to bet on direction; it's meant to gauge the backdrop. Let's wait and see.Explosive financial reports, billions in buybacks, capacity sold out—storage stocks have still been smashed. Lao Mo will tell you whether the AI memory bull market is truly stable
Guys, the recent drama in the storage sector has been even more outrageous than a TV drama.
SanDisk: Revenue surged 372%, but still fell 8% in after-hours trading.
After the market closed on August 5, SanDisk released its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2026:
· Revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, exceeding the market expectation of $8.394 billion
· Non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $39.25, compared to $0.29 in the same period last year
· Gross margin reached 84.6%, compared to just 26.2% a year ago.
· Data center revenue reached $2.98 billion, a year-on-year surge of 1298%
· Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 175%
They also played a major card: the board approved an additional $14 billion in buyback authorization. Ten long-term agreements have been signed, with a minimum contract income of $93.9 billion, including $16.5 billion in financial guarantees, and a weighted average term exceeding four years.
Then it fell 8% in after-hours trading. It closed down 5.4% during regular trading hours and continued to plunge in after-hours trading.
Western Digital: Profits Double, After-hours Drop 11%
Western Digital reported Q4 revenue of $3.747 billion, up 44% year-over-year. Non-GAAP EPS was $3.56, up 109% year-over-year. It fell 5.36% in regular hours and plunged over 11% in after-hours trading.
On a GAAP basis, Q4 net profit was 3.195 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1215%—but about 2.05 billion yuan of that was a book gain from SanDisk's stock price surge. After deducting actual operating profit, it was 1.382 billion yuan. Cloud customer revenue accounted for 89% of total revenue.
SK Hynix: Strongest earnings report ever, drops over 19% intraday
Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 257% year-on-year; Operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW, up 557% year-on-year. The strongest financial report ever, but below market expectations of 84 trillion KRW in revenue and 64 trillion KRW in operating profit. After the earnings report, Korean stocks once fell more than 19% intraday, closing down 9.61%.
Samsung Electronics: Revenue up 130%, opened high but immediately turned negative
Q2 revenue was 171.5 trillion KRW, up 130% year-on-year; Operating profit was 89.5 trillion KRW, up 1813% year-on-year. Performance exceeded expectations across the board, but opened high but quickly fell back, closing down 0.72%.
The better the performance, the harder the drop—where is the problem?
First, expectations moved too fast. SanDisk's Q1 revenue guidance median was $10.55 billion, below analysts' forecast of $11.16 billion. Goldman Sachs put it bluntly: "Market expectations have been excessively inflated, so a flat future guidance can be interpreted as a negative signal." Wu Hao, fund manager at Founder Fubon, said: "The negative factors are not in earnings, but in the gap between expectations."
Second, the previous rally was too large, and profit-taking was running. As of August 5, SanDisk's year-to-date gains exceeded 460%, while Western Digital is up about 200%. The positive news was realized early, no new catalyst appeared, so taking profits was a natural choice.
Third, long-term contracts lock in price increase flexibility. SanDisk's capacity for fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds for fiscal year 2028 have already been locked in long-term contracts. The advantage is revenue visibility; the downside is that the spot price increase dividend is lost. SK Hynix's large amount of HBM capacity is locked within the long-term contract pricing system, unable to benefit from the rapid spot DRAM price increase.
Do the bulls still have cards? Yes, and not small.
All capacity will be sold out by 2027. All three major OEM DRAM and HBM capacities have been sold out, and the NAND capacity will be basically booked by the end of August 2026. Buyers will accept the prepaid deposit model regardless of whether they sign long-term contracts—2027 will be the "year with the worst storage shortage." AI accelerators are expected to ship 29.05 million units in 2027, driving HBM demand to 7.9EB, with suppliers still facing supply shortages in 2027.
Long-term contracts lock in future revenue. SanDisk's minimum income of $93.9 billion, with a weighted average term exceeding 4 years. Citi's research team recently dismissed concerns about a "peak cycle"—inventories across supply chain segments remain low, and capacity cannot meet global order demand. China Asset Management believes AI demand remains highly sustained, and overall storage prices are likely to stabilize at high levels.
There is a huge divergence. Morgan Stanley believes memory contract prices are expected to peak in Q4. Renqiao Asset believes the industry has peaked and extreme profits are inevitably short-lived. Both bulls and bears do not deny strong performance; the disagreement lies in sustainability.
Old Mo said a few honest words.
SanDisk's gross margin is 84.6%, revenue increased by 372%, signed 93.9 billion yuan in long-term agreements, and approved 14 billion yuan in buybacks—such a company is like a money-printing machine in any industry. The stock price fell not because fundamentals collapsed, but because market expectations moved too fast, and the stock price had already priced in all the positive factors for the next two years.
AI storage demand hasn't disappeared—all capacity will be sold out in 2027, and customers are scrambling to pay deposits. The new HBF standard has just been implemented, and the new market for AI inference storage is just opening. The medium- and long-term logic hasn't been broken. But in the short term, the market is going through a 'valuation digestion' phase—not the fundamentals falling, but the valuations are falling.
Operationally, the volatility in storage stocks is not directly related to Bitcoin, but tech stocks are under pressure and risk appetite is declining, making it hard for Bitcoin to remain unaffected as a high-beta asset. The fundamentals haven't collapsed, but short-term volatility may not be over yet. Wait for signals of volume shrinkage and stabilization; don't rush to bottom-fish.
Storage: Will you bottom-fish or wait and see during this pullback? Let's discuss in the comments.
If you think Lao Mo has clearly broken it down, give a like and follow. When the key points arrive, I'll call you immediately. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $AMZN Closed slightly higher below the high resistance line; the positive news of expanded pharmaceutical channel coverage did not directly break through the selling pressure level above.
During the session, the price repeatedly tested the $278.31 resistance level, indicating that bulls were constrained by the willingness of capital to follow while testing the upper supply zone.
Amazon Pharmacy has expanded GLP-1 weight loss drug coverage to Medicare patients, allowing the market to reprice the premium space for the healthcare business.
The expansion of new pipelines has improved long-term risk appetite, but short-term funds still choose to lock in profits before resistance levels amid uncertainty from inflation and policy competition.
If the stock price can break through the $278.31 resistance on increased volume, it would confirm that the valuation reshaping driven by the healthcare business has opened a new upward channel; a break below $272.75 would mean the upward momentum has expired.
If concerns over medical policies squeezing profits prevail and the price falls below the $272.75 support, the room for a correction will be opened, and only a rapid recovery of this support can reverse the weakness.
The key to whether the current logic can be sustained lies in whether the expected cash flow from the healthcare business can offset the contraction in macro risk appetite.
The next key variable to watch is whether positions near the $278.31 resistance level can shift from short-term turnover to medium- to long-term lock-up.
#Uniswap进军发射台, can UNI open up a new narrative? #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效, the boundaries between transactions and payments are clearResearch Target: Core (CORE)
Sector: BitcoinFi / BTCFi, Layer 1, public chain infrastructure
Main trading markets: Mainstream exchanges such as OKX
Research period: August 2026 After experiencing an extreme downturn, CORE has become one of the most controversial BTCFi assets in the current market. On one hand, Core DAO is backed by the Bitcoin ecosystem, with Satoshi Plus consensus, self-custody BTC staking, and dual staking as its core narratives, and in 2026 will further propose strengthening token value capture through BTCFi revenue and CORE buybacks; On the other hand, CORE's price has already dropped more than 99% from its all-time high, and in 2026 it experienced another significant liquidity and liquidation shock. Therefore, the biggest misconception in studying CORE is that it is cheap simply because it has "dropped enough." The real question to answer is: Can CORE's fundamental growth ultimately outpace the rate of chip dilution, market selling pressure, and declining investor confidence? 1. What exactly is CORE? CORE is the native token of Core Blockchain. The Core itself is an EVM-compatible Layer 1, and its core positioning can be understood as: mining computing powered by BitcoinHere's a signal that the narrative is quietly shifting: NVIDIA has agreed to invest up to $3 billion in power infrastructure company Lancium—backed by Blackstone, which provides power to AI parks in Texas serving OpenAI and Oracle.
Those who understand understand that the weight of this line lies in: the bottleneck of AI is shifting from "computing power" to "electricity." A couple of years ago, everyone was scrambling for cards and advanced processes, and now even NVIDIA itself has started investing upstream in electricity. This shows that the ceiling of data centers in the short term is not chips, but whether they can secure sufficiently cheap and stable electricity. The next real bottleneck narrative may not be in silicon, but in the power grid. Whoever blocks power will block AI production capacity. Let's see $BTC#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
这次非农减少了2.3万人，前两个月还下修了10万多，就业市场冷却的信号确实很明显。不过失业率能降到4.1%，主要还是因为劳动参与率跌了，并不是就业真的变强
我觉得市场现在卡在一个很尴尬的位置。
非农转负打碎了强劲就业的说法，高利率的滞后压力开始显现。但市场现在不敢直接押注转向，因为通胀依然有黏性，博弈的主线已经从看就业转向了看通胀
对加密资产和风险市场来说，最怕的就是两头受气，一方面怕经济走弱带崩情绪，另一方面又怕通胀压不住逼着美联储继续紧缩
后续走向预判
▶️短线看下周CPI
如果通胀超预期反弹，按现在的鹰派分歧，维持高利率甚至加息的讨论会重新抬头，风险资产短期还要承压。如果通胀走弱，降息预期才会重新占据主导
▶️中长线来看，就业走弱一旦开启，往往具有延续性。接下来企业招聘放缓会更明显，美联储政策重心终究会从控通胀被迫转回保就业和防衰退
这期间加密市场大概率会经历一波震荡挤压，但只要流动性拐点出来，中长期底部反而会越来越清晰
非投资建议 DYOR #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window has been moved backward
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has confirmed that the legislative window for the CLARITY Act this summer is officially closed, with voting postponed to September. Thune blamed the Democratic obstruction on this, saying that after reconvening on September 14, it will be "the top priority."
But to be honest, after the September recongress, the pressure of the midterm elections will increase, leaving a very narrow time window for the bill.
The probability of the bill passing in 2026 on Polymarket has dropped from over 80% at the beginning of the year to 16%. This is not the market panicking; it is voting with money.
The old three issues are still holding back the bill.
Ethical clause: Democrats demand restrictions on profiting from crypto assets during the president, lawmakers, and senior officials' tenure. The Trump family has made over a billion dollars from crypto, which is naturally a focal point. Both sides are still arguing over how to define a "conflict of interest," with significant differences.
Stablecoin clause: Banks worry about stablecoins competing for deposits, while the crypto industry feels banks are stifling innovation, with neither side willing to back down.
Not enough votes: Republicans have only 53 seats, and the bill needs 60 votes to bypass a lengthy debate. Currently, only two or three Democratic senators openly support the bill, a significant gap.
A few weeks ago, the probability of passing the CLARITY bill was still over 70%, but now it's down to 16%. A bill that passed the House with a high vote of 294 may ultimately be lost due to conflicts of interest within the presidential family. With only a few weeks between the September reconvening and midterm elections, it's unlikely enough to solve these three issues. This year, it might really be a dead end $BTC $ETH $SOL What If You Had Invested $100 Every Month in Crypto Since 2022?
By August 2026, you would have invested $5,600 into each asset. Here's how those investments would have performed:
📈 $TRX — $16,521 (+195.0%)
🟠 $BTC — $8,660 (+54.6%)
⚫ $XRP — $8,465 (+51.2%)
🟣 $SOL — $8,025 (+43.3%)
🔵 $ETH — $4,898 (−12.5%)
🔴 $ADA — $2,616 (−53.3%)
The results show that dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can produce very different outcomes depending on the asset.
@trondao was the standout performer, nearly tripling the original investment, while some of the market's biggest names still ended the period in the red.
The takeaway? DCA helps smooth volatility, but it doesn't eliminate asset selection risk.
#AIMemoryBullTest
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs Trump declared: AI might be more important than oil; whoever wins AI wins everything. This slogan is fine, but as a trader, when I hear phrases like "XX is more important than oil," my reflex is to first check my pockets and take in the risks.
Historically, the loudest shout of "this time is different" is often when asset pricing discounts the next ten years in advance. It's not that AI is bad—it most likely does—but the price of narrative and the value of the industry are two different things. Retail investors love to jump in at the peak of the narrative, while professional players think about how much odds are left. The more expensive the narrative, the more you have to ask: at this price, is there still EV?网页自动化的价格，被一家开源项目打到三美分。
Browser Use 发布 Cloud v4，宣称每个成功任务三美分，比 v3 便宜 45 倍，背后是 Luna 模型。官方自己评估的成功率是 76.47%，比 v3 的 67% 高，但距离发布海报里的 88% 有距离。
我信官方文档，不信发布海报，等两周真实用户的数据，再决定要不要把流程迁过去。工具降价是真的，但每成功任务这个分母，从来不是它展示的那么干净。Here's a structural snapshot of the market before the close. $BTC Current price is about 64,996, basically flat in 24 hours (+1%); $ETH 1,916; $SOL 74.3 is the strongest leg today (+2%). The common feature among the three products is: prices are moving, but both transaction volume and OI remain low, and rates remain moderately positive.
What does this combination indicate—this level of gains isn't driven by new capital entering the market, but more like the lingering heat of bears being forced to flat in a stock game. Without incremental volume and sentiment, the trend can't be confirmed. Even if SOL leads the rally, don't rush to use it as a rotation signal; low-volume rallies are the easiest to repeat. Look at the position: Before volume drops, the direction is just a fluctuation in the noise. Which leg do you believe in more?Yesterday, greed led to no profit-taking, and both Sandisk $SNDK and Hynix $SKHY fell—the current pullback is the direct cost of emotional holding. Although the non-farm payroll data was clearly positive, the market chose to decline. This pattern is now clear: the market falls when good news comes out and rises when bad news appears. Behind this is the typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" logic—the data itself is not the direction; the market's reaction to the data is the real signal. Waiting As of August 8, 2026, the Bitcoin block height is about 961521, and there is still a block period before 965664 takes effect in early September. The BIP-110 miner signal support rate remains below 3%, far from the 55% activation threshold, and is about to enter the mandatory signal window (block 961,632), with a high risk of chain splits or activation failures due to insufficient consensus. Bitcoin developer Kevin Loaec stated that if BIP-110 forms a minority chain this weekend, holders attempting to sell forked coins may face replay attacks. Since both chains can initially accept the same transaction, the transaction signed when selling forked coins may be rebroadcast to the original Bitcoin chain, allowing buyers to receive an equal amount of BTC at the same time. Loaec stated that large-scale holders may be the first targets; For users unclear about how to separate assets from two chains, temporarily not moving funds is a safer choice. The BIP-110 transaction data limit is expected to take effect until block height 965,664, after which replay protection will not be automatically provided. Based on current computing power distribution and market forecasts, BIP-110 is highly unlikely to become the "longest chain." If forcibly activated, the following scenarios may occur: 1. Natural death: Due to low support computing power, BIP-110 chain blocks are extremely slow, eventually stopping growth and being abandoned by the main chain. 2. Temporary fork: Forming an independent minority chain, but lacking ecosystem support (wallets, exchanges, users).In August 2026, Google's parent company Alphabet officially disclosed a bond issuance plan of up to $25 billion. The financing attracted about $115 billion in subscriptions, more than four times the issuance amount, making it the third largest subscription volume among U.S. investment-grade bonds in 2026, behind only Oracle in February and Amazon in March. The implementation of this large-scale financing directly reflects the current fierce competition in the global AI industry, where the pressure for AI investment among leading tech giants is becoming increasingly apparent. Core Details of This Bond Issuance The bonds issued this time cover 10 different maturity types, with time spans ranging from 2 to 40 years. Among them, the longest maturity, the 40-year bond, has a coupon rate of 1.3 percentage points higher than the U.S. Treasury for the same period, narrowing by 25 basis points from the initial guidance price. To enhance investor appeal, Alphabet offered issuance concessions above the industry average, with some maturity bonds yielding up to 15 basis points higher than similar issued bonds, while the average premium for 2026 U.S. investment-grade new securities is less than 4 basis points. At the same time, Alphabet clearly announced that it will issue US dollar bonds twice a year on a regular basis, aiming to ease market concerns about an oversupply of technology bonds. AI investment pressure behind large-scale debt issuance 1. Direct pressure on cash flow Alphabet in Q2 2026 reported its first negative free cash flow since listing: capital expenditure doubled year-on-year to $44.9 billion in a single quarter, with free cash flow negativeWhy are $SOL and $HYPE worth watching? Don't just focus on the 24-hour gains; first, see if real capital is willing to trade.
Many people choose popular coins in a very simple way: open the gainers list and chase whichever has risen the most. But this method actually means actively buying assets that have already gone through a round of volatility.
What’s more worth observing is whether "capital is continuously willing to trade in this sector."
An interesting data point is from the SIX Swiss Exchange's May 2026 crypto ETP report, where the 21Shares Hyperliquid HYPE staking ETP had a turnover of about $16.29 million, and the 21Shares Solana staking ETP about $15.56 million. Both are even significantly higher than some single BTC and ETH products during the same period.
This doesn’t prove that HYPE or SOL will definitely rise, but at least it shows one thing: there is already trading demand for assets beyond BTC and ETH on traditional trading venues.
So when I screen popular coins, I look at four layers: whether the sector has a sustained narrative → whether spot trading volume is increasing → whether the rise is driven only by contract open interest → whether it can maintain relative strength when BTC falls.
The last point is especially important. Truly strong coins don’t just rise quickly when BTC goes up; they fall less when BTC pulls back.
Risk warning: The biggest trap in popular sectors is mistaking "high trading volume" for "low risk." Assets like SOL and HYPE still have volatility significantly higher than BTC. The more crowded the hotspot, the more positions should be reduced accordingly.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound A perspective on the AI bubble from the credit market: JPMorgan has raised its tech bond issuance forecast for this year, with the scale expected to exceed $500 billion. This figure is worth remembering—in the past, AI funding mainly relied on equity and free cash flow, but now it increasingly relies on bond issuance.
What does this mean? AI capital expenditures have grown so large that their own cash flow can't cover them, so they start borrowing the future from the bond market. In the short term, liquidity is favorable and pushing the narrative higher; But it also adds interest rate sensitivity to this track—once financing costs rise, these names that rely on borrowing money to expand will be the first to be under pressure. Data won't play along: look at AI this round, don't just focus on revenue, focus on its financing structure $BTC🚨 Don’t confuse a green candle with a trend reversal.
One strong move can make everyone suddenly bullish.
But tonight’s NFP rally isn’t enough to change my view yet.
Yes, $BTC bounced hard. Yes, sentiment improved. But when I look underneath the price action, this still feels more like a short squeeze and sentiment reset than a wave of fresh capital rushing back into the market.
The bigger picture hasn’t changed enough for me.
ETF flows still haven’t fully recovered.
On-chain liquidity hasn’t convincingly confirmed the move.
And those massive ETF outflows from June haven’t been completely repaired.
That’s why I’m still patient with my $BTC short.
I’m not going to panic just because one candle went vertical. 😅
For me to seriously reconsider the bearish thesis, I want to see confirmation, not just excitement:
📌 CPI needs to support the move
📌 ETFs need several days of sustained net inflows
📌 Liquidity needs to genuinely return to the market
Until then, I’m treating this as a strong rebound—not a confirmed trend reversal.
The market can put on whatever show it wants. 🎬
I’ll be watching, waiting, and letting price prove me wrong.
No need to fight the market. Just wait for confirmation.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#SepHikeOddsFallHawks #SpaceXUnlockRebound #AIMemoryBullContinues
#DailyOrbit A data preview for next week: Wednesday's US July CPI was the heaviest thunderstorm of the week. Deutsche Bank expects an overall month-on-month increase of +0.15% (June was -0.42%), with core growth of +0.26% unchanged from last month; then Thursday's PPI is also available.
The key to this set of numbers is not absolute value, but direction—June was negative, and if July turns positive as expected, it means the downward slope in inflation is interrupted. The market is still betting on a December rate hike in futures, and this CPI is the first card to verify or disprove the pricing. For crypto, it doesn't directly give direction, but it determines where the real interest rate waterline will go. Look at the data—don't take sides for it too early $BTCOne green candle can make the whole market feel bullish. But don’t let one candle change your thesis. 🎬
Tonight’s NFP move looks great on the chart, but I’m not convinced it’s the start of a real reversal.
To me, this looks more like a short squeeze + sentiment repair than fresh money aggressively entering the market.
Shorts got flushed, bearish positioning eased, and the market bounced hard. But the bigger picture hasn’t changed much yet. On-chain flows and ETF inflows still haven’t shown the kind of strength I’d want to see. And those massive ETF outflows from June haven’t been fully repaired.
That’s why I’m not touching my $BTC short for now—and I’m definitely not panic-closing it just because we got one strong bullish candle.
For me, a real reversal needs confirmation:
📌 CPI needs to cooperate.
📌 ETFs need to show sustained net inflows for several days.
📌 On-chain liquidity needs to start improving.
Until then, I’m treating this as a relief rally, not a confirmed trend reversal.
The market loves putting on a show.
So let it perform. 🍿
I’ll be sitting here watching for the confirmation. 🎬
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Rob discusses why Circle's Arc chain is set up to own onchain forex, and pull DeFi and perps over with it.
"Circle and USDC are one half of the stablecoin duopoly, but they're primarily USD-denominated. As more regional stablecoins emerge, where do you build the liquidity for onchain foreign exchange, if not right next to one of the leading stablecoins in the market?"
"That's why I think Arc is the place. There's a big opening for FX to be done onchain there."
"And it won't stop at FX. USDC is tightly integrated across DeFi, so I'd imagine more DeFi, more perp volume and open interest, and tokenized equities all move over to Arc. Circle holds the stablecoin stronghold. Everywhere else is fair game."#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound A hard signal in the storage chain that is easily overshadowed by stock price sentiment: SK Hynix officially announced plans to invest $38.4 billion in domestic South Korea to expand chip production. In the context of capacity cycles, this figure is more significant than a short-term pullback of a few days—the capital expenditure of leading companies often reflects their judgment of supply and demand over the next two to three years, rather than this week's volatility in DRAM spot prices.
In other words, the recent declines in the secondary market are about 'sentiment,' while the expansion plans for leading companies are about 'cycles.' These two are often out of sync. Data won't play along: when judging sector turning points, look at slow variables like capacity, inventory, and utilization rate—not just a single candlestick. $MU What do you think—is this the cycle bottom or another early jump?Using the gold price after the first establishment of the reserves by the U.S. government in 1792, this analysis is fitted to analyze the Bitcoin price after the first reserve was established in 2026.
The essence of 1792 was that "U.S. national legislation established a monetary identity for gold assets." Using this as a reference, institutions' allocation to Bitcoin in 2026 resembles a process of "monetization of digital gold."
1. The 1792 historical template: legislation establishing "monetary identity." In 1792, the U.S. Congress passed the Coinage Act, with core measures including: fixing the official gold price: setting the gold exchange price at about $19.3–20 per ounce, establishing a legal exchange relationship between the dollar and gold. Establishing a national-level institution: The U.S. Mint was thus founded to produce circulating currency and manage gold reserves. A century of price stability began: For the next hundred years, gold prices fluctuated narrowly between $18 and $20, rising only slightly from $19.39 to $53.35 in the first 72 years
The impact of gold prices in 1792 was not a "surge," but rather an "institutional anchor"—gold transformed from a commodity into the cornerstone of the national monetary system. The price surge did not truly occur until after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971.
2. The reality of 2026: Bitcoin is undergoing "monetization." In 2026, Bitcoin will undergo a similar institutionalization process, but at a much faster pace than gold in the past. ETF institutionalization channel: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided institutions with a compliant entry point. Bitwise expects large institutional funds to flow through ETFs in the second half of the year. Bernstein maintains a year-end target of $150,000, while JPMorgan sets a long-term target of $266,000 based on gold comparisons. Institutions continue net buying: Strategy's holdings reached 842,138 BTC; Morgan Stanley's total holdings surpassed 6,331; Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and others increased their holdings in Q1 2026. Forming a structural supply gap: institutional purchases exceed miner output by 76%, with whale holdings rising from 2.87 million in December 2025 to 3.06 million.
3. Scenario Simulation: Three paths based on the 1792 logic. Path 1: Institutionalized anchoring (based on the 1792 benchmark) If institutional allocation continues without explosive buying, Bitcoin may emerge from a "long-term slow bull" pattern similar to 1792—the price focus gradually shifts upward, but volatility narrows significantly. Year-end target range is $95,000–$150,000.
Path Two: The "Bretton Woods Moment" (accelerated version) of digital gold, which took nearly 180 years from 1792 to the real explosion of gold prices. But in the digital age, this process is severely compressed—if more countries or pension funds add Bitcoin to strategic reserves, prices could hit $266,000 or even higher. Path Three: Institutionalized "double-edged sword" (risk scenario), where gold was "froten" at a fixed official price for a century in 1792. If Bitcoin ETF inflows slow (institutional holdings in Q1 2026 have already dropped 17% quarter-on-quarter), prices may retreat to the $55,000–$70,000 range.
4. Core Conclusions
The lesson from gold in 1792 is: institutionalization gives assets a "monetary identity," but true price revaluation often takes decades. What sets Bitcoin apart in 2026 is that the pace of capital flows in the digital age has compressed this process into years or even months. What institutions are doing is not short-term speculation, but redefining Bitcoin from a "commodity" to a "reserve asset of the digital age"—a process that may move faster than gold after 1792. Especially after widespread RWA in European and American stock markets, risk-averse sentiment has driven funds to seek one-stop safe havens. Which is better than traditional or emerging? It remains to be seen.#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
Nonfarm payroll data came out at -23,000, expected 80,000, turning negative. But the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% because the labor force participation rate fell, just like before, the data is fighting on its own.
The market reacted quickly, pushing the probability of a rate hike in September down to 44%, while Kalshi's probability of keeping rates unchanged actually rose to 65%. Short-term employment data did loosen rate hike expectations, but the real issue is next week's CPI. If CPI rises again, rate hike expectations will rebound. As always, employment data and inflation data are tugging at each other, with bulls and bears waiting.
$SNDK SanDisk is currently hovering in the 1200-1300 range. I estimate that in the next week or so, SanDisk will likely fluctuate between 1200-1300. If it breaks below it, some will buy in; if it rises, there will be selling pressure, so the ups and downs are limited. Previously, the low was 1186, but it didn't break below 1100, which is better than I expected. This shows there is still support at this level, and the market hasn't completely abandoned the medium- to long-term logic for storage.
The grid paused because it stopped below the lower edge of the range at 1219, and the price reached near 1216. The strategy stopped, but the bottom position remained. When the price returns above 1219, the grid will automatically recover. If SanDisk really stays in the 1200-1300 range for a week, and after the grid recovers, it can continue to move, then this range is enough for grid arbitrage. $SNDK
A bold guess is that this rally is not the entry of new bulls, but rather a defensive move by existing funds.
If the market moves further downward, it will trigger a chain reaction of massive contract liquidations. Overseas US stock market volatility has intensified, and institutions are unwilling to see the crypto market crash along with it, so they temporarily step in to support the market.
Now it's strange: risk coins are rebounding, while gold and US Treasuries are strengthening simultaneously, with risk and safe-haven assets rising together—the logic is contradictory.
Next, nonfarm payrolls and inflation data will be tested. If the data exceeds expectations and leans more hawkish, both the crypto and US stock markets will come under pressure.
Is this current wave a reversal, or is it a support for the decline? Feel free to discuss.$SPCX confirmed entering a crazy short squeeze mode last night, surging 16% with a volume breakout!
I decisively stopped shorting below $110 and switched to long positions— the short squeeze was expected, but unfortunately, the longs did not fill. Judging from the volume and price structure on the chart, this rebound won't end quickly: the $135 issuance price will definitely be broken through, the $150 opening price is very likely to be reached, while the additional unlocking condition price of $175 (already invalid) is hard to surpass. Even at $135, SPCX's current valuation is clearly expensive.
This rally is precisely creating space for the next short. I have accumulated profits of over $100,000 on SPCX, thanks to Musk; but the storage sector (SNDK, MU) has losses of about $50,000. Storage is currently in a consolidation and distribution phase—the main forces have neither broken key resistance nor fallen below key support, but over time, pressure on cyclical stocks is accumulating. I have established short positions, with floating profits and losses repeatedly tugging within a narrow range, and my directional judgment remains unchanged. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Nature finds a way.
CLARITY missed its window this week. NFP came in ugly job losses instead of gains. Two of the biggest question marks on everyone's calendar, both resolved by Friday.
And price didn't care about either headline. It just moved.
BTC held above $64,900, tagged $65,300 intraday. Bad jobs data, somehow good for rate-cut odds, somehow good for BTC. Gold didn't just react it surged past $4,350, one of its sharpest weekly moves in years. Silver broke a resistance level most people weren't even watching. Nasdaq spent most of the week getting sold, then printed a hammer candle Thursday into Friday like nothing happened.
BTC dominance is quietly doing its own thing too up to 59.52%, testing resistance it hasn't touched since early July. Capital isn't fleeing Bitcoin for alts here. If anything, it's consolidating into it.
DXY sits in the middle of a two-month squeeze right now, and weak data usually pushes it toward the lower end of that range. A softer dollar doesn't just help Bitcoin it tends to help gold, silver, and risk assets all at once.
None of this was the headline. The headline was a jobs report and a bill that didn't get a vote. Price found its way around both anyway.
Next real test: CPI in a couple weeks, then the Fed on September 16. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus 🚀 Bitcoin Bear Trap: When 64,000 becomes a "false bottom," you're not holding back a pullback, but the whale's harvesting scythe
📌 Core Summary: Bitcoin has built a textbook-level "bear trap" around $64,000. While the market generally expected seasonal weakness in August to push prices below $60,000, whales frantically accumulated 66,700 BTC (about $4.3 billion) within 60 days, with ETF funds flowing in net for three consecutive weeks, and the shocking nonfarm payroll data directly ignited the rebound engine. This is not ordinary volatility—it is large funds exploiting retail investors' fear to complete the final round of cheap chip accumulation. This article will deeply analyze the current market's triple game logic and provide practical strategies for trapped shorts.
1. Data Doesn't Lie: Who Went Crazy Buying Under $60,000?
As of August 8, 2026, Bitcoin was quoted at $64,916, up 1.07% in 24 hours. On the surface, this is just a mild rebound. But if you only look at the candlesticks, you'll miss the underlying currents.
The whale accumulation data is shocking. CryptoQuant on-chain data shows that over the past 60 days, whale addresses have net bought 66,700 BTC, worth about $4.3 billion. This is the largest round of accumulation since 2026. More importantly, the cost of building positions for these tokens is concentrated in the $57,500 to $62,000 range—right at the core area of the June low and current support zone. This means that while retail investors are cutting losses in panic, smart money is quietly taking over.
ETF capital flows are a barometer. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $754 million in the first week of August, with no outflows for several consecutive days. On August 6, a single-day net inflow of $137.6 million was recorded, with BlackRock IBIT alone accounting for $128.3 million. The cumulative net inflow over three days reached $626 million. Institutional buying of this level has almost never occurred in the first half of 2026—keep in mind, the overall net outflow in the first half of 2026 was about $5.4 billion. Institutions are betting with real money: below $60,000 is a value trough, not a relay of declines.
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, makes a noteworthy assessment: "The Fed keeping rates unchanged means the macro environment is shifting from headwinds to tailwinds, and Bitcoin prices may be nearing the bottom." Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo further pointed out that this round of corrections provides an excellent opportunity for medium- to long-term capital to redeploy.
2. Nonfarm payroll data surprise: The "core button" for short covering has been pressed
The U.S. nonfarm payroll data released on August 7 became the trigger for this round of rebound. Data shows that U.S. nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. This is a rare negative growth in employment data, directly shaking market confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy.
But what does this mean for Bitcoin? Three positive factors released simultaneously:
🔸 Weakening Dollar: Weak economic data directly weighs on the Dollar Index, and Bitcoin priced in dollars naturally benefits;
🔸 US Treasury yields declined: Rising expectations of rate cuts compressed Treasury yields, reducing the attractiveness of cash and fixed income assets and shifting funds toward risk assets;
🔸 Risk appetite restoration: The macro liquidity environment has shifted toward a more favorable environment, providing systemic support for cryptocurrencies.
More subtle is the market structure. Binance's retail BTC long-short ratio has dropped to 0.7, in an extremely bearish range. Historical experience repeatedly shows: whenever the long-short ratio falls below 1, it often corresponds to a phased bottom. Similar patterns appeared in early 2024, September 2024, and early 2025—after severe short positions, once the price breaks upward, cascading liquidations are triggered, forming a short squeeze. Currently, a large number of short positions have accumulated in the $72,200 to $73,500 range, involving about $6 billion in short positions. Once these "fuels" are ignited, the rebound could far exceed expectations.
3. The technical "lie": Head and shoulders bear or bearish trap?
Many technical analysts have recently been emphasizing a red flag: since March 2026, Bitcoin has been operating in a "head and shoulders top" pattern, with right-shoulder upward movements accompanied by shrinking volume—a typical "exhaustion" signal. If the neckline of $60,965 is effectively breached, the theoretical target would be $41,266—meaning there is still 35% downside left.
But here's a key detail that has been overlooked: the same pattern has appeared in key bottom areas in 2024 and 2025, and both have ultimately proven to be bearish traps.
The weekly RSI indicator provides a clearer answer. Currently, the RSI is at 39.30, with the signal line at 32.88, forming a clear bullish divergence—the price hits new lows and the RSI hits new highs. This pattern has appeared before every major rebound in Bitcoin history. The previous three bearish divergences accurately predicted the 2025 top and subsequent sell-offs, and at this stage of the cycle, the inverse bullish divergence is equally significant.
The distribution of key resistance levels is also worth examining:
📍 $65,705 — Weekly trading high and bearish resistance zone; a breakout confirms a short-term trend reversal;
📍 $68,468 — 200-week moving average, key higher timeframe level;
📍 $69,445 — 20-week moving average, continuously declining and limiting weekly gains;
📍 $78,365 — 50-week moving average, extending resistance; a breakout would open the door to $80,000.
CoinCodex quantitative models predict that BTC could rise to $81,985 by the end of 2026, representing about 29% potential upside from current prices. LongForecast's forecast is more aggressive: the average price in August could reach $89,018, with a peak of $95,249.
#非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes #存储股财报后续跌. Is the AI memory bull market stable? #财报观察员: After the lock-up rebound, what is SpaceX's outlook? $BTC $ETH $SPCX 宏观这边的逻辑很直接，非农新增录得负值，失业率抬到4.1%，劳动参与率创五年新低，就业市场降温信号明确。九月加息预期大幅回落，美元和美债收益率走弱，全球流动性宽松的预期开始升温。$BTC 在这个位置兼具避险和风险资产双重属性，宽松周期最初期，资金天然要找弹性最大的方向，加密市场就是那个方向。当前 $BTC 报价65029美元，回调不是风险，是给踏空的人递上车票。 监管端的CLARITY法案推迟到九月复会，年内通过概率掉到35.5%，市场已经提前把合规交易所和 $XRP 抛了一轮，短期利空基本定价完毕。法案众议院高票通过是事实，卡在民主党伦理条款协商，九月重启谈判落地确定性依然很高。恐慌盘砸出来的估值洼地，正好是 $BNB 这类合规平台币的博弈窗口，现价592.8美元附近，修复行情的赔率比追高主流币舒服得多。 两条主线其实清晰：$BTC 和 $ETH 吃流动性宽松红利，拿住就行，$BNB 赌九月法案回暖，弹性更大。九月复会投票是节点，但不用提前焦虑，波动率放大反而给轻仓上车的机会。 $BTC #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $CORE From its historical peak of 6.9U, it collapsed all the way down, hitting a low of 0.01506, with the overall drop directly breaking through 99.7%. Looking at the entire sector, few projects have experienced such an extreme dark decline in just a few years.
But the most intriguing and ironic point is: the lower the price, the more prosperous the narrative; the weaker the market, the denser the new concepts.
Countless investors trapped at high levels have always wondered: with the trend weakening for a long time and fundamentals under pressure, why has the official team never stopped updating ecosystem stories? The overwhelming BTCFi infrastructure, Satoshi Plus consensus, and Bitcoin power grid narratives—stripped away the glamorous packaging, are essentially mature market stabilization logics.
The first goal of continuously delivering grand narratives is to lock in massive trapped positions at high prices. The vast majority of users enter heavily at high price ranges, with shocking losses. If the market has no new expectations or stories for a long time, confidence in holding positions will completely collapse, triggering concentrated stampede sell-offs. Frequently updating ecosystem blueprints and track plans is a way to keep the market in hopes of a rebound, keeping retail investors' hopes of a rebound alive and delaying large-scale sell-offs.
The second goal is to attract additional off-exchange capital in succession. After the initial buzz around network-wide hashrate commissioning faded completely, the narrative system immediately iterated and shifted to the Bitcoin power grid track positioning. By continuously exposing topics and building momentum in the track, they attracted new BTCFi participants, attempting to use new capital to leverage the accumulated historical holdings above.
The third goal is to maintain the remaining liquidity on the market. Long-term one-sided declines have continuously shrunk CORE's trading depth and weakened market activity. Continuously creating ecosystem hotspots can stabilize the sentiment of miners, staking users, and the community. As long as the market still has buzz and trading counterparts, early tokens and institutional staking tokens will have room to continue liquidating and escape.
If you look at the essence, you'll find that the entire publicity system hides a lot of formulaic packaging.
They excel at distorting concepts and blurring the real and false, habitually packaging long-term technical plans and intended cooperation resources as tangible achievements and heavily promoting them. The so-called Bitcoin power grid has an unavoidable flaw: miners' computing power flows purely for profit, gathering when returns are high, dispersing when returns are low, and floating computing power is hardly a permanent foundational infrastructure. The once-popular 90% hashrate commissioning gimmick is even more hype by modifying statistical standards, deliberately confusing the number of mining pools with the actual effective hash value.
Skilled at narrative rotation to cover up negative news, whenever ecosystem implementation falls short of expectations, large token unlock pressure arises, or the market is about to break and weaken, a brand-new track concept is launched on time. Using new hype to cover old problems, diverting market attention, deliberately avoiding the core pain points of heavy chip structure and persistent inflation.
They are better at selectively reporting good news rather than bad news. Promotional copy is entirely emphasizing the ecosystem landscape and track status, but rarely faces core shortcomings: long-term linear unlocking and continuous token output, constant circulating expansion, and no mature burn mechanism. Everyone is watching whether the overwhelming ecosystem expansion can produce real demand and absorb the continuous supply of new tokens.
It is undeniable that the project has always been advancing technology R&D and ecosystem building, which needs to be viewed objectively. But the persistently weakening market for years is no lie; round after wave of narrative hype has long moved beyond mere technical popularization and become the main tool for stabilizing market sentiment.
Stories can iterate endlessly, and publicity can never end, but the massive accumulation of trapped shares and the releasing token selling pressure on the market cannot be easily resolved by a few grand narratives.
Looking forward to future repairs and playing A, believing the narrative is hard to reverse the weakness of playing B, feel free to leave comments and share your thoughts!
A. Deeply cultivating the BTCFi sector, long-term positioning is expected to bring value recovery
B. Relying on narrative to stabilize emotions is difficult to reverse the long-term weak pattern
⚠️ Market views are only exchanged and do not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and far from leveraged rational participation.One green candle can make the whole market feel bullish. But don’t let one candle change your thesis. 🎬
Tonight’s NFP move looks great on the chart, but I’m not convinced it’s the start of a real reversal.
To me, this looks more like a short squeeze + sentiment repair than fresh money aggressively entering the market.
Shorts got flushed, bearish positioning eased, and the market bounced hard. But the bigger picture hasn’t changed much yet. On-chain flows and ETF inflows still haven’t shown the kind of strength I’d want to see. And those massive ETF outflows from June haven’t been fully repaired.
That’s why I’m not touching my $BTC short for now—and I’m definitely not panic-closing it just because we got one strong bullish candle.
For me, a real reversal needs confirmation:
📌 CPI needs to cooperate.
📌 ETFs need to show sustained net inflows for several days.
📌 On-chain liquidity needs to start improving.
Until then, I’m treating this as a relief rally, not a confirmed trend reversal.
The market loves putting on a show.
So let it perform. 🍿
I’ll be sitting here watching for the confirmation. 🎬
#DailyOrbit Why are $SOL and $HYPE worth watching? Don't just focus on the 24-hour gains; first, see if real capital is willing to trade.
Many people choose popular coins in a very simple way: open the gainers list and chase whichever has risen the most. But this method actually means actively buying assets that have already gone through a round of volatility.
What’s more worth observing is whether "capital is continuously willing to trade in this sector."
An interesting data point is from the SIX Swiss Exchange's May 2026 crypto ETP report, where the 21Shares Hyperliquid HYPE staking ETP had a turnover of about $16.29 million, and the 21Shares Solana staking ETP about $15.56 million. Both are even significantly higher than some single BTC and ETH products during the same period.
This doesn’t prove that HYPE or SOL will definitely rise, but at least it shows one thing: there is already trading demand for assets beyond BTC and ETH on traditional trading venues.
So when I screen popular coins, I look at four layers: whether the sector has a sustained narrative → whether spot trading volume is increasing → whether the rise is driven only by contract open interest → whether it can maintain relative strength when BTC falls.
The last point is especially important. Truly strong coins don’t just rise quickly when BTC goes up; they fall less when BTC pulls back.
Risk warning: The biggest trap in popular sectors is mistaking "high trading volume" for "low risk." Assets like SOL and HYPE still have volatility significantly higher than BTC. The more crowded the hotspot, the more positions should be reduced accordingly.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound It's the weekend, and mainstream coins have started to experience low liquidity. Unexpectedly, $BTC $ETH remained range-bound this week without breaking out or declining.
In the past couple of days, I've been focusing on other coins. Personally, I don't choose coins based on the extent of the rally, but rather for whether there are funds lying in wait or strong narratives.
$BICO: The strongest is traffic, but the most dangerous is also traffic
The recent $BICO gains have been quite exaggerated, but this trend primarily indicates focused attention and does not mean a sudden change in fundamentals by orders of magnitude.
Biconomy has experienced events such as token contract migration this year, and market attention has noticeably increased.
So $BICO I tend to define it as:
High-beta funds should observe the stock, rather than blindly chasing gains at the current position.
$ZBT: Worth observing—whether the technology narrative can become a financial narrative
$ZBT belongs to infrastructure and privacy computing directions.
The most important thing for this coin isn't how much it rises in a day, but whether it will be visible in the future:
User growth → on-chain activity → real demand → increased liquidity.
If there is only exchange trading volume without on-chain data to support it, it easily turns into a purely trading market.
$ALLO: AI × Crypto remain the crossroads favored by capital
$ALLO's greatest value isn't the word "AI," but its attempt to combine AI reasoning, models, and on-chain economics.
Once such a project appears:
Developer growth + network usage + incentive funds + TVL
At the same time, moving upward is the truly fundamental resonance worth paying attention to.
$SUI: Within public blockchains, I pay more attention to whether ecosystem funds continue to accumulate
$SUI's core indicator is not just price.
I will focus on the following:
TVL, stablecoin scale, DEX trading volume, active addresses, and ecosystem project financing.
The biggest fear in the public chain market is "coins rising, ecosystems not growing."
If ecosystem data improves synchronously, it will be considered as capital spreading from the trading layer to on-chain fundamentals.
$LINK: Infrastructure-type assets, suitable for observing institutional capital preferences
$LINK's logic is completely different from $MEME.
It stands for:
Oracle + cross-chain + RWA infrastructure.
These assets usually don't rise the fastest during the market's most frenzied periods, but if the market enters a "quality premium" phase, it becomes easier to secure sustained capital.
$ONDO: The money thermometer for the RWA sector
What is truly worth watching about RWAs is not the concept, but the following:
On-chain asset scale, institutional participation, and the connection between stablecoins and real-world financial assets.
$ONDO If trading volume and on-chain asset scale expand simultaneously again, the significance far outweighs a single-day rally.
$TAO: In the AI sector, I focus more on "real network effects"
$TAO's strength lies in the fact that its narrative is no longer just a simple AI meme.
What the market really needs to verify is:
Miners/validators incentivize → subnet ecosystem → model demands → network value capture
If these things can form a closed loop, it will be possible to move from an "AI concept coin" to an "AI infrastructure asset."
$ZEC: A long-established privacy sector, a highly elastic observation position
$ZEC features are clear:
The fundamental narrative leans toward independence, but market attention is highly cyclical.
The biggest feature of this coin is that once funds return to the privacy track, their elasticity can be very high.
But we can't ignore the following:
Liquidity, regulatory expectations, and large-scale token activity.
So it's better to build an observation pool, rather than chasing after volume increases.
$RESOLV: You should first look at risk, not on price increases
$RESOLV problem is very typical:
A project narrative can be beautiful, but the token supply structure must first be examined.
Currently, public unlock data shows a significant gap between circulating supply and maximum supply, and future unlocking itself is a potential supply pressure.
So I will focus on this kind of coin:
Unlock → exchanges: net inflows → major player balances, → trading volume accepted.
If the price rises and large chips continue to flow into the exchange, you should be extra cautious.
For small-cap assets like $BICO, $ALLO, $ZBT, I ultimately only look at one thing:
Is there any "smart money" shifting from short-term trading to long-term holding?
True capital rotation usually does not:
Today this coin rose 300%, tomorrow it will be replaced with the next one.
Instead:
$BTC. $ETH Stability → Mainstream public chains take over → infrastructure, RWA, and AI to raise funds→ small-cap assets are experiencing high beta diffusion.
So my current counterfeit observation framework is getting simpler:
Look at liquidity first, then on-chain data;
First look at the chip structure, then at the narrative;
Only at the end will the gains be considered.
Next week, I will actually be watching the 'AI infrastructure chain' in the US stock market simultaneously.
Especially $AAOI, $COHR, $AEHR, $RDW, $LUNR, $CRWV.
Recently, the U.S. optical communications sector has clearly been driven by the dual effects of AI data center demand and potential restrictions on China's optical module import policies, with $COHR and $AAOI showing strong performance recently.
But it's important to note this:
AI infrastructure ≠ is rising blindly.
The optical module industry chain still faces risks in supply chain, valuation, and technological route switching.
So now I prefer to include:
Crypto AI, RWA, infrastructure, and US stocks like AI computing power, optical communications, and data centers are all viewed on the same capital map.
Personal thoughts shared and not investment advice.🔥 The memory chip sector is once again favored by institutions, as AI demand is reshaping industry logic.
After SanDisk's latest earnings report, Bank of America maintained a Buy rating and continued to set a $2,500 price target, representing about an 85% upside from the reference price.
Bank of America believes the market may currently underestimate the sustainability of SanDisk's future profitability.
In the past, the memory chip industry was considered to have a clear cyclical nature, with prices easily affected by supply and demand changes.
But this time, AI is reshaping the industry landscape.
With the rapid expansion of AI data centers, the demand for enterprise-grade SSDs continues to grow, and with the increase in long-term supply agreements, the NAND storage industry is shifting from simple cyclical fluctuations to a more stable demand structure.
In short:
Previously, storage relied on cycles; now AI is creating a new growth cycle.
Without storage, computing power cannot be released;
Without data, AI cannot evolve.
For the crypto market, the logic behind this is also worth paying attention to.
Whether it's AI, DePIN, or decentralized computing, the future development of the digital world depends on underlying hardware infrastructure.
The market may experience short-term fluctuations, but the real major trends are often hidden in changes in industry demand.
When funds begin to allocate to infrastructure, it indicates that the market is looking for the next stage of value growth.
The AI wave continues, and the real opportunities may not only lie in the application layer but also in the underlying industries supporting the entire era.Nonfarm payrolls shock, market bets on rate cuts again! $BTC What's next?
Last night's major turnaround was a major turnaround, and the July nonfarm payroll directly contradicted expectations.
New employment did not increase but actually decreased by 23,000, far below expectations. At the same time, employment data for the first two months was sharply revised downward, indicating that the previously strong employment was later inflated.
As soon as the data came out, the US dollar plunged, US Treasury yields fell, and the market immediately re-invested in Fed rate cuts. US stocks, gold, and the crypto sector all rose!
But right now, the market is not focused on nonfarms, but on next week's July CPI. If inflation continues to cool, expectations for a rate cut in September may rise, giving BTC a chance to continue pushing upward.
In the US stock market, the index continued to hit new highs, but the storage sector collectively declined;
In the crypto sector, BTC surged to around 65,000 and then retreated.
On the regulatory side, the clear bill was extended to September, which lacked this catalyst, but ETFs continued to flow in, and institutions have not all left.
So I want to wait for BTC to hold above 65,000, and maybe target 66,000
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes 美伊如果真能坐到谈判桌上，霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航，那全球原油的定价逻辑就得重写。布伦特原油从高位回落15%到20%不是梦，油价每跌10美元，美国CPI就能直接降0.3到0.4个百分点。通胀压力一松，美联储手里的降息空间就被打开了，市场对九月份降息五十个基点的押注已经在升温。 这波对币圈来说就是明牌利好。比特币现在的定价权在宏观流动性手里，美债实际收益率往下走，风险资产的估值天花板就抬起来了。$BTC现报64,998美元，过去二十四小时涨了1.1%，这个位置一旦确认降息预期二次发酵，冲回70,000上方只是时间问题。更关键的是，地缘避险逻辑一旦退潮，黄金里的投机资金会溢出，有一部分必然要重新配置到数字黄金上。 美股那边逻辑类似，纳指和AI科技股会先吃到这波估值松绑的红利。航空、物流、化工这些吃油大户弹性最大，而能源板块千万别碰，油价下行通道里石油股就是个逆风局。要警惕的是消息落地当天的情绪化抛售，毕竟短期涨幅里已经计入了部分预期，但中期趋势不会因为单日震荡就改变方向。$BTC $ETH 这轮的核心驱动力就是流动性预期转向，拿住别松手。 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #财报观察员[Crypto Scenario]
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
I'm Script Bro. After the non-farm payroll came out last night, I was also livestreaming. Many friends in the livestream immediately asked me one question: Is this data positive or negative for the crypto world? Will BTC directly surge?
At that time, I told everyone in the livestream that this non-farm payroll is a mild positive for the crypto world and Bitcoin, but not the kind of super bullish news that immediately triggers BTC's surge as soon as the data is released. However, the signals it sent are relatively positive for market sentiment, and in the medium term, I remain bullish.
Many newcomers think that if nonfarm payrolls are weak, BTC will definitely rise, but it's not that simple. If employment cools but the economy does not show a clear recession, and the market interprets this as a "soft landing," then this environment is quite comfortable for BTC and US tech stocks, because funding costs may decrease in the future, liquidity expectations improve, and risk appetite will gradually return.
But if employment data is so bad that the market fears the US economy is entering a recession, funds may not immediately buy BTC, but instead choose safe-haven assets like gold and cash.
So during last night's livestream, Script Brother kept emphasizing that this nonfarm payroll is a mild positive outlook for BTC, with a positive direction. But don't blindly chase gains just because of a single data release. What really matters is how funds choose going forward.
Back to last night's rally, after the nonfarm payroll release, BTC did not surge immediately but was digesting the news. The price hit a low near 64,111 before quickly rebounding, indicating strong support below.
Last night in the livestream, Script Bro also used this logic to guide everyone in making long positions on Bitcoin after the BTC pullback.
At that time, BTC reached around 64,800. I led everyone in adding positions, and the overall average price was controlled around 64,938-64,500. The subsequent trend followed expectations. After the price reached around 65,200, I chose to halve first to lock in profits and continue to observe the remaining bottom position. Currently, the bottom position price is near 64,900, and the overall rhythm is still following plan.
Actually, there was another interesting point last night: many friends kept asking about SanDisk SNDK. Recently, market funds have indeed been speculating around AI storage and US chip sectors, and SanDisk has performed very strongly earlier, so many people believe this hot sector has a better chance. However, last night I didn't choose to follow SanDisk, but firmly chose BTC.
Why? Because trading isn't about the hottest spots; the more people pay attention to the area, the fiercer the short-term competition tends to be. Last night, SanDisk experienced significant intraday volatility, dropping over 100 points at its peak, with a drop close to 10% at one point. If you chase at a high point without proper positioning and stop-losses, it's easy for a pullback to lose profits or even your principal. That's just how the market is—the hottest places aren't necessarily the most comfortable trading opportunities.
As for Bitcoin, $65,000 remains the most critical short-term level. BTC has repeatedly tried to break through around 65,000 but failed to break through, indicating significant pressure here. If U.S. stocks stabilize and tech stocks' risk appetite continues to increase, and BTC can break through 65,000 on high volume, the market may continue to extend toward 66,000 or even higher. But if resistance is encountered near 65,000 again, short-term pressure risks should be monitored, with the focus on support near 64,000.
So Script Brother believes that last night's non-farm payroll season brought the market not just a simple upward signal, but opened up a new space for expectations. Rising expectations for rate cuts help the long-term logic of the crypto world, but short-term trends won't change because of a single piece of data. What truly determines BTC's next direction are capital flows, US stock performance, and subsequent inflation data.
Last night's trading also confirmed another truth: don't jump in just because a sector is hottest. Truly good opportunities often appear after market corrections and emotional release.
With the non-farm payrolls out, Script Brother chose to trade BTC instead of chasing SanDisk's highs, essentially sticking to his trading system. Besides, last night's non-farm payrolls were definitely the home turf for Bitcoin, while SanDisk completely ignored the non-farm benefits and crashed the market like a waterfall.
Next, keep an eye on the key level of 65,000. If it breaks through, market sentiment may further recover; if not, patiently wait for a more comfortable level $BTC $ETH $BICO Bitcoin isn’t weak right now — it’s trapped. And the next move could come fast. 👀
Small NFP or big NFP, the result is the same: gold has already started showing signs of a small bull market, while Bitcoin is barely moving.
So what’s holding BTC back?
The Coinbase Premium Index is negative, suggesting U.S. institutions are selling while Asian buyers are stepping in. The two sides are basically canceling each other out.
Even though ETF inflows continue, a large portion of that money appears to be coming from arbitrage strategies rather than aggressive directional buyers. In other words, money is entering, but it isn't necessarily creating real buying pressure.
Then there’s the Fed.
The market is still waiting for clearer signals on rates, while policymakers remain divided. Until that uncertainty clears, Bitcoin may continue to chop rather than choose a direction.
Right now, the levels are simple:
🔥 $65,000–$65,500 = the key breakout zone.
If BTC can reclaim and hold above $65K, the bullish momentum could accelerate.
🛡️ $63,800–$63,200 = major support.
As long as this zone holds, bears may struggle to gain real control.
So for now, Bitcoin is stuck between institutional selling, Asian buying, ETF flows, and Fed uncertainty.
$65K is the line in the sand. Above it, bulls regain momentum. Below $63.2K, the picture changes quickly.
Until one side wins, expect volatility — not direction. 📊
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound The massive volume of unlocking was pressed above the order book, yet the price kept breaking through the buyer's defense. At the release point of the largest restricted stock, $SPCX closed at $133.11, completely overturning the bears' chip expectations.
Within two days, it rose 23% cumulatively and surged 16% in a single day, pushing its market value above $1.75 trillion. The unlock scale of 910 million shares and over $100 billion did not trigger a sell-off; trading volume was quickly absorbed by buying amid the rally.
Internal holdings saw no outflow after the lock-up was lifted, and the market interpreted the extremely suppressed holdings as a long-term outlook. Meanwhile, news of building its own power generation facilities to support a semiconductor factory in Texas in cooperation with Tesla has expanded the market's valuation space for its computing power infrastructure.
Insiders' lock-up of shares, combined with expectations of cross-industry power generation and chip manufacturing, have turned the original distribution concerns into short-squeezed capital covering.
If the construction progress of the Texas semiconductor factory and supporting power continues to be fulfilled, funds will naturally factor in the computing power premium in the stock price, further expanding market capitalization; However, if trading volume cannot maintain the breakout high, the momentum from the squeeze market will quickly weaken.
If high-level profit-taking positions are distributed in concentrated amounts after the unlocking pressure is digested, and capital expenditure pressure from cross-industry computing power squeezes cash flow, the stock price may fall back to the previous breakout point; Once it breaks below support and is accompanied by internal chip reduction, the bullish logic will immediately fail.
The current market's strong performance is built on extremely high valuation tolerance; any signal that chip manufacturing progress falls short of expectations could be disproven at any time if this rally was triggered by cross-industry expectations.
The most noteworthy variable in the next seven days is whether major internal shareholders will report substantial share reductions after the lock-up is lifted.
#黄金升破4300美元, are funds backing interest rate cuts or safe havens? #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has oil price risk cooled down? #非农意外转负, CPI has become the key to rate hikesNEAR：AI 叙事退潮后的基本面验证期
NEAR 回落至 $1.59，24 小时跌幅 4.03% 领跌主流公链，$20.8 亿市值与 $403 万日交易量的组合，暴露出 AI+Web3 叙事降温后的流动性真空。价格失守 $1.6 心理关口，日内最低触及 $1.58，技术面短期均线系统走平下行。
市场数据显示，NEAR 的跌幅虽不算剧烈，但成交量萎缩更令人担忧——抛压不重，承接力更弱。社交情绪全维度缺位（零热度、零分化），印证了市场对"AI 公链"标签的边际关注度已归零，当前定价完全回归到 L1 基本面竞争维度。聪明钱维持净做空且零实质仓位，揭示专业资金正在执行"叙事兑现前不重仓"的纪律性策略，等待的信号是：链上活跃地址回升、AI 应用落地数据改善、或生态基金实质性部署。
核心判断：NEAR 正在经历从叙事溢价向基本面定价的痛苦切换，短期下行风险大于上行机会，需等待链上数据拐点确认才能重启上涨逻辑。#霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the risk of oil prices cooled down?
Recently, I've been closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz. When I saw progress in the negotiations, my first reaction was whether the geopolitical risks were coming to an end.
According to reports, there has been a new turning point in negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the opening of the strait. The U.S. side claims that the talks have progressed and an agreement is expected to be reached soon, restoring unhindered commercial shipping for commercial vessels. If the agreement is implemented, the U.S. will lift the blockade on Iranian ports, but this depends on Iran's subsequent actual compliance.
The market has already given early feedback: this week, US crude closed down 1.32% at $76.35, while Brent crude closed down 1.54% at $81.50. Meanwhile, data from ICE and CFTC show that net speculative long positions in Brent and WTI are also retreating, with many funds actively exiting long oil positions.
However, I think we can't be too optimistic yet; the agreement has not yet been officially announced. Iran has also stated that it has not made concessions in the understanding negotiations. Even if a paper agreement is reached, there will be a host of practical challenges ahead: travel rules, sanctions and constraints, shipping insurance—each of which could hinder the agreement's implementation.
The real key point next is not the progress of verbal negotiations, but whether the agreement can be formally signed and whether merchant ships can truly restore stable passage.
Once the enforcement process is blocked by sanctions, insurance, or regulatory rules, the geopolitical risk premium will be refactored into oil prices, making it easy for crude oil to rebound.
The most common pitfalls in geopolitical markets are "expectations maxed out but then delivered." At this stage, I will remain cautious, not hastily declare the crisis is completely resolved, and continue to observe the actual implementation of the situation.#黄金升破4300美元, are the funds at risk of interest rate cuts or safe havens?
When spot gold steadily held above $4,339 per ounce this week, and COMEX gold futures even touched the $4,400 mark, the market no longer described this rally solely as a "breakout." A weekly gain of over 7% signals that gold is undergoing a severe repricing.
Some attribute this to the unexpected weakening of U.S. July nonfarm payrolls, which has raised expectations for a rate cut in September, which has indeed eased some pressure on the dollar and real interest rates. But focusing solely on rate cuts might miss a bigger narrative—funds are shifting from "chasing risk" to "seizing safe assets."
Three signs indicate this is not a simple rebound:
1. Qualitative change in position structure: As of the week ending August 4, net long positions in COMEX gold speculators have increased to 132,398 contracts, with institutional funds systematically replenishing precious metals positions rather than short-term gambling.
2. Dual Binding of Geopolitical and Inflation: Energy inflation remains sticky, the situation has not eased, and central banks' gold purchases are still ongoing. These underlying supports have helped gold break free from a simple real interest rate framework.
3. Market sentiment shifts: When volatility in risk assets like stocks increases, gold is re-evaluated as the "ultimate settlement asset"—especially after "rate cuts" have been fully traded, the risk aversion logic may become the dominant force.
The current accelerated rally appears to be a macro data catalytic event, but on the deeper level, it resembles the beginning of global liquidity seeking a new anchor point. Whether gold is entering a new supercycle remains to be seen, but the shift in capital allocation logic cannot be ignored.
However, the more intense the sentiment, the more attention must be paid to the timing: short-term overbought signals have already appeared, so chasing at higher prices requires caution; But if we extend the perspective to the second half of the year or even next year, gold's value as a hedge for tail risk in portfolios is increasingly recognized by more capital.
This rally has both the fuel of "rate cut trades" and the underlying tone of "risk-averse restructuring." It is not a choice but a joint eruption of dual logic