Orbit Post Sitemap
📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 15)
According to liquidation data, short- and medium-term bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but long-term bears are starting to fight back, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $866,000, $645,100, $220,900
4 hours: $7.4799 million, $6.8855 million, $594,300
12 hours: $8.2405 million, $7.2731 million, $967,300
24 hours: $23.1299 million, $10.7632 million, $12.3667 million
From $BTC liquidation data, 1-hour, 4-hour, and 12-hour long liquidations crushed short positions; 1-hour bulls were 2.9 times the shorts, 4-hour ratios soared to 11.6 times, and 12-hour pressures about 7.5 times. The bullish sell-off trend was intense enough to penetrate the short and medium term; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with short liquidations crushing the bulls, who were 1.15 times bulls, and short squeezes erupted across the long cycle. Dog Farm completed a fierce turnaround on BTC by short-term long selling and long-term short squeezing—shorts in the short term were targeted and destroyed, long-term short sellers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $23.12 million. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 15
This week, three main market themes point to the same theme: macro narratives and industry logic are undergoing a synchronized repricing.
📊 CPI Determines Life: The scale of a rate hike in September hangs in the balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, August 12, the US July CPI will be released. FactSet's comprehensive forecast shows that overall CPI year-on-year is expected to fall from 3.5% in June to 3.4%, while core CPI year-on-year is expected to fall from 2.6% to 2.5%. Deutsche Bank expects a month-on-month increase of 0.15%.
Why is this CPI so critical this time? After the nonfarm payroll turned negative in July, the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from 57% to 44%. But CME data shows the probability of a rate hike still swings between 44% and 55%. A CPI that exceeds expectations is enough to instantly tip the scales toward a rate hike; A moderate data sheet could completely extinguish the flames of a rate hike in September.
💾 Storage stocks: Explosive performance, but stock prices have crashed
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, but after the earnings report, its stock price once plunged more than 11%. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 557%, but its stock price has dropped about 20% since its all-time high on July 14.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim has already "shorted and bullish," believing the most dramatic correction is nearing its end. The divergence between bulls and bears is: bulls firmly believe HBM supply shortages will continue at least until 2027; Bears point out that memory contract prices are expected to peak in Q4, and ultra-high gross margins are hard to sustain permanently. Performance is in the past; divergence lies in the future.
📈 ETF funds return: BTC returns to $65,000
Bitcoin spot ETFs ended an eight-week streak of outflows exceeding $8.2 billion. As of the week ending August 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $853.5 million, marking the strongest performance since mid-April. BlackRock IBIT attracted $479 million between August 3 and 5, accounting for 76% of total inflows.
Ethereum spot ETFs also strengthened, with a weekly net inflow of $245 million, maintaining net inflows for five consecutive weeks. Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together attracted about $1.1 billion in inflows.
Can BTC hold above $65,000? The key lies in CPI—if inflation is moderate, ETF inflows are likely to continue; If the data is strong, rising rate hike expectations could weigh on risk assets.
💎 Summary
CPI will determine where the scales tip for a September rate hike; The "unexpected plunge" in storage stocks proves valuations have outpaced fundamentals; The continued return of ETFs shows institutional funds are re-entering the market. All three markets have cleared out expectations within the same window — Wednesday's CPI data will be the ultimate judgment to test all this. #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a September rate hike be rewritten?
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Early in the morning, I kept an eye on the market, and the volatility of $BTC suddenly surged. I kept rubbing back and forth around the 65,000 level, and my position increased by 2.66%. On Friday, the ETF side also saw a net inflow of over $100 million.
Mainstream and altcoins are also experiencing undercurrents. CoinMarketCap's altcoin season indicator has climbed to 54, and Korea's Upbit trading volume has surged sharply in the past two days. The feeling of funds withdrawing from Kospi and moving into the crypto world is quite strong.
Friday's nonfarm payroll -23,000 figure was really wild—rate hike expectations were directly crushed, rate cut trades returned, and liquidity has taken a breather in the short term.
It depends on whether this momentum can take advantage of the macro trend to further expand the range.
But then again, there are plenty of fake breakouts in this circle. Charge ahead, don't let your leverage sleep too tightlyBICO Retracement Support & Order Flow Accumulation
$BICO /USDT 4H Analysis: Biconomy Holds $0.037 Support Floor Amid Whale Inflow Absorption
Biconomy ($BICO) is navigating a cool-off phase on the 4H timeframe, trading around $0.04096 (-15.52% today) after pulling back from its recent parabolic peak of $0.09000.
1. Technical Overview (4H Chart):
Support Zone Test: Price has found dynamic demand near the $0.03734 local low, consolidating just below moving average resistance levels.
Moving Averages: Dynamic overhead resistance is formed by MA5 ($0.04190), MA10 ($0.04854), and MA20 ($0.05246). Reclaiming MA5 is the first key step for short-term recovery.
Multi-Timeframe Gains: Despite the daily pullback, BICO retains strong macro gains (+142.94% in 7D and +196.38% in 30D), showing a healthy market reset following an overextended rally.
2. Order Flow & Money Breakdown (5m Data):
Positive Net Inflow Delta: Order flow metrics reveal dynamic buy-side absorption with a positive Net Inflow of +61.46K BICO (Inflow: 835.27K BICO vs Outflow: 773.8K BICO).
Whale & Institutional Buyers: Mega Buyers (31.69% / 509.89K BICO) and Large Buyers (14.77% / 237.71K BICO) make up over 46% of total order book volume, actively absorbing sell pressure near $0.040 support.
💡 Trading Perspective:
Defending the $0.037 – $0.040 support range is critical for BICO to establish a higher low base. A strong 4H close back above $0.048 (MA10) can pave the way for a recovery retest toward $0.052 – $0.060.
What’s your setup for $BICO ? Are you accumulating at this $0.040 support base or waiting for confirmation above $0.048? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
Disclaimer: Content provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always DYOR before trading!
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#SpaceXShortCovering
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Any trading decision we make must include a time limit to be effective.
Recently, I came across a viewpoint that expresses the following: Most likely, in the next Bitcoin bull market cycle, due to MicroStrategy's strategic transformation, $MSTR won't spiral with one foot on the other. The conclusion is that buying MSTR is no longer possible, so just honestly buy Bitcoin; Until it emerges in the next few years, no one can confirm or disprove this viewpoint, but I raise two points:
1. Looking at the volatility of coins and stocks themselves: Bitcoin's current price doubling is 130,000, breaking previous highs. MSTR's spot price doubling is 200 yuan;
2. Looking at timing and inertia, perhaps the above viewpoint was eventually confirmed, but maybe MSTR was only confirmed in the mid to late Bitcoin cycle that it could not spiral upward;
But maybe by then Bitcoin was already 130,000, MSTR had returned to previous highs, Bitcoin could keep rising, but MSTR stopped following; Just like at the beginning of 2023, we still speculated on L2s, modularization, and other things that were ultimately proven unfeasible.#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
Guys, Wednesday's CPI might be the last card for a rate hike in September.
Last week, the nonfarm payrolls clearly weakened, giving the market a reason to "not raise rates," but don't celebrate too soon.
If inflation rises again, the Fed will still dare to take action.
Now, with a rate hike probability of about 44% in September, Wash has declared that if inflation remains hot, he supports a rate hike in September.
Market expectations:
CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, compared to the previous value of 3.5%;
Core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year;
Core CPI was 0.2% month-on-month.
Next, let's look at three types of scripts:
(1) CPI exceeded expectations
With core monthly yields above 0.2%, the probability of a rate hike could surpass 60%. BTC is on the negative side, and 62,000–63,000 may be the first to be pushed aside.
(2) CPI met expectations
The data basically met expectations, and after a brief market fluctuation, continued to fluctuate. BTC is very likely to grind between 64,000 and 66,000.
(3) CPI is below expectations
Core CPI falls below 2.5%, and the probability of a rate hike may fall below 30%. If BTC surges through 66,000 on high volume, there is a chance at 68,000 or even higher.
So before the CPI comes out, don't get carried away or hold too much position.
If it's good, chase it if there's volume; If it's bad, wait for a pullback.
There is always a chance in the market; once a position is gone, there really is no chance.ETH's recent drop is even more worth watching than BTC: 1900 is becoming a dividing line between bulls and bears
ETH just quickly dropped from around $1925 to the 1893 level, with a clear volume increase within one hour. The price simultaneously broke below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and directly hit near the lower Bollinger band.
Looking only at the candlesticks, this is obviously a weakness.
But I actually think the most noteworthy thing now is that ETH has dropped to around 1900, yet active buying is starting to appear.
Taker data in the screenshot shows that in that hour, about 40,800 ETH were bought and about 36,500 ETH sold. In other words, while the price was falling rapidly, there were still people taking on shares. Combined with KDJ's J value already pushed down to 1.44, this at least provides conditions for short-term oversold speculation.
Moreover, ETH and BTC now have a subtle difference.
BTC still has some room to go from previous lows, while ETH has retested the key trading range of 1890–1900 formed on August 6–7. If this level is breached, it would mean the recent 1910–1930 range has basically failed; But if it recovers, today's drop could actually become a very typical liquidity cleanup.
So I'm not in a rush to guess the bottom, just watching how the market handles 1900:
Holding 1890–1900 and reclaiming 1907–1917 indicates genuine buying below the level; A further break above 1929 will be considered a return to strength in the short-term structure.
Conversely, if the market breaks below 1890 with increased volume, the next phase should no longer be simply interpreted as an "oversold rebound," but should guard against further downward searches for new liquidity.
More importantly, the US July CPI will be released on August 12. Now that BTC and ETH are reducing their risk exposure simultaneously, it's hard to fully explain them apart from macro events.
My core judgment on ETH now is just one sentence:
1900 isn't a blind bottom-fishing spot for me, but a spot worth observing for "who wants to buy in panic."
If the market could hold ETH steady around 1900 before the CPI, or even pull back to 1920, then this drop might not be a bad thing; What really needs to be wary is that after prices break below key support, so-called "bottom-fishing funds" also start to withdraw.
The true strength of a trend has never been about how many people chase when it rises, but whether anyone dares to buy it when it falls $ETH SanDisk went from explosive earnings to halving and then rebounding. At the 1246 position, Laomo will break down three things for you
Guys, the more I watch SanDisk's trend, the more interesting it gets.
The latest price is 1246.87, up 1.80%. The intraday low was 1191.02, and the high was 1278.85. After the earnings report, it plunged to around 1226, and in the past couple of days it has slowly climbed back to around 1250, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war.
Let's start with the technical side; several signals are crucial.
The upper Bollinger Band is at 1247.06, the middle band at 1224.66, and the lower band at 1202.26. The price at 1246.87 is right near the upper band, indicating a strong zone but also facing resistance from the upper band. SAR turn signal at 1192.29, prices are trading above the SAR — trend confirmation is bullish. SuperTrend at 1208.73 forms support below.
MACD fast line at 1.25, slow line at -0.53, energy bar at 3.57—a golden cross just formed near the zero axis. Compared to the big bearish candle after SanDisk's earnings report, this is already a clear correction. The energy bar just turned positive a few days ago, and bullish momentum is still accumulating, not in an explosive phase.
Key levels: First resistance above is 1278-1285 (intraday high + upper Bollinger band area); a breakout is at 1310-1320; The first support below is 1224-1230 (middle Bollinger band); a break below is 1200-1202, and below is 1191 (intraday low).
But what Laomo wants to say is something else.
This market reveals not just technical signals, but three things.
First, the selling pressure after the earnings report is being digested.
After SanDisk's August 5 earnings report, it plunged from around 1430 all the way to 1226, a drop of over 14%. But the main reason for that drop was a guidance miss, not fundamentals. 93.9 billion yuan long-term contracts locked up income for the next four years or more, and 14 billion yuan buybacks could be bought at any time to support the bottom. After a week of volatility, the price slowly climbed back from 1226 back to around 1250, indicating selling pressure is exhausting.
Second, the market is waiting for Investor Day on August 13.
Both bulls and bears are now hesitant to heavily bet. Bulls are waiting for management to provide quantitative details of the new financial model, HBF roadmap, and long-term contract pricing mechanism; Bears are waiting for evidence of gross margin peaking and a cyclical turning point. The 1246 price is the result of a temporary compromise between the bulls and bears.
Third, the market is highly divided, but the opportunity may be here.
After the earnings report, Morgan Stanley maintained a target price of 1750, Goldman Sachs raised it to 2200, Evercore ISI lowered its price from 3100 to 2800, and Jefferies slashed from 3000 to 1750. The average Wall Street target price was about $2220, roughly 78% higher than the current stock price. However, the year-to-date gain still exceeded 340%, and after a sharp drop, any slight movement would be amplified.
There are three key points of disagreement: Has the gross margin peaked at 84.6%, can it hold steady? How much revenue can the HBF standard actually contribute? Will competition from Chinese NAND manufacturers impact pricing power? The answers to these questions will be revealed at Investor Day on August 13.
JR Research, a top 2% investor in TipRanks, has just upgraded its rating from Hold to Buy for a straightforward reason—"I believe the bottom opportunity in storage stocks is ripe for investors looking to get on board before they accelerate again." With a forward P/E ratio of only around 6, the market seems to have priced in weakened pricing power and normalized earnings.
To be honest, Old Mo said.
SanDisk went from 1123 to 1483, then dropped back to 1191, and rebounded to 1246—this was a big swing, but the fundamentals didn't collapse. Long-term contracts locked in 93.9 billion in revenue, the HBF standard just launched, the new QLC platform just launched, and 14 billion yuan buybacks as a backup—there's nothing to doubt about the fundamentals.
In the short term, investors are likely to fluctuate in the 1220-1280 range recently. Both bulls and bears are waiting for management's response on August 13.
In terms of trading: For those holding positions, 1224-1230 is a short-term support level. If it holds, you can hold it and wait for the investor day. If you want to enter, wait for a pullback to 1224-1230 and stabilize before acting. Set a stop loss below 1200, target 1278-1285, and if a breakout is attempted, look for 1310-1320. Or simply wait for investors to finish at the sunset and after the market has digested it, then chase on the right.
What do you care about most at SanDisk Investor Day? Let's talk in the comments.
If you think Lao Mo is so clear, give a like and follow. I'll call you right away when the results of Investor Day come out $BTC $ETH $BICO #霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？ 此前市场押注美伊达成临时通航协议，地缘溢价大幅回落，油价走出一轮回调，但当前谈判陷入僵局，临时通航协议落地无望，原油的地缘风险再度定价，行情重回高波动震荡格局。
霍尔木兹承担全球约20%原油海运，是能源核心咽喉，替代管道运力仅能覆盖不到半数货运量，卡塔尔、科威特等国无绕路出口渠道，航道通行受限会直接造成全球供给缺口。伊朗提出解除制裁、美方经济赔偿等苛刻条件，短期美国难以妥协，谈判不存在快速破冰可能，海峡常态化通航预期彻底落空。叠加红海胡塞武装持续袭击油轮，两大能源航道同步承压，航运保险、运输成本抬升，进一步支撑油价底部。
短期利好原油多头，地缘避险资金回流推升价格；但上涨空间存在约束，全球原油库存仍有缓冲，OPEC闲置产能可对冲阶段性运输扰动，难以复刻前期单边暴涨行情。
宏观层面，油价持续走强会推高欧美通胀，强化美联储鹰派立场，压制美股、加密货币等风险资产。后市核心观察美伊摩擦是否升级、航道实际通行量变化，只要协议无实质进展，地缘溢价将持续锚定油价，区间震荡偏强格局延续。
信息仅供参考，不构成投资操作建议。$BTC $ETH $SNDK #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温
有什么影响？
好的一面是，美股新高说明全球风险偏好没问题，流动性还在线。钱迟早会从传统市场溢出来，加密作为高波动资产，最终会受益。
别扭的是，美股在涨，大饼还在64500横着。两个市场的相关性明显断了，一个在吃降息预期的红利，一个还在等自己的催化剂。CLARITY法案没落地，流动性底座在收缩，宏观的利好传过来要慢好几拍。
所以短期看，美股新高对加密市场提振有限。真正能让大饼走出方向的，还是周三CPI。数据配合，大饼有机会冲一冲，数据不配合，美股新高也救不了。
你怎么看呢？
$BTC $ETH $SOL Altcoin price change rankings on August 10
Ranking of Gainers
First place: GUA 83%
Second place: Lobster 64%
3rd place: TST 34%
Decline list
1st place: EPIC -54%
Second place: BEAT -33%
3rd place: XAN -30%
Altcoins that surged on Saturday and Sunday collectively shut down today—EPIC, TUT, BTW, and so on. Some coins have even started to crash. EPIC has already dropped 65% from its peak. So altcoins don't need to be aggressive.
$BICO #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? SanDisk's high-volume rally is seeing funds re-trade the "AI storage" logic
Today, the 1-hour SNDK candlestick is, in my opinion, more worth watching than a simple +1.84%.
The market first quickly dipped to around $1191, then surged with volume to $1247, nearly hitting the upper Bollinger band; Trading volume increased significantly, and KDJ's J value rose to around 72. This was not an ordinary low-volatility rebound, but a wave of downward cleansing where buyers quickly reclaimed the price.
There was also coordination in the news segment.
SanDisk and SK Hynix recently released the first HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) technical specification, attempting to push NAND further into the AI storage layer; Meanwhile, SanDisk and Kioxia continue to advance their new generation of 3D NAND. The competition in AI infrastructure is gradually expanding from simple GPU/HBM to the entire data storage and transmission system.
More importantly, SanDisk also has Investor Day on August 13.
This means the market is not only digesting the recently concluded earnings cycle but also beginning to trade in management's further statements regarding AI storage, NAND demand, and future growth paths.
In terms of technical structure, I focus on three positions:
$1223 is the first short-term support and happens to be the current moving average concentration zone;
$1268 is the first resistance on the chart; only after holding above will there be a chance to further test the 1279 area;
If 1279 is also broken through on high volume, then this rebound starting from 1191 could evolve from an "oversold repair" into a trend to regain control.
But here, I won't go long just by chasing a big bullish candlestick.
Because SNDK's biggest conflict now is no longer "whether the NAND market is doing well," but rather:
With such strong expectations for NAND and AI storage, how much of this has already been priced into stock prices?
So I prefer to wait for the market to give me an answer.
Holding near 1220 and continuing to break through 1268 with increased volume, I am bullish; If it falls back below 1220, today's rally looks more like an emotional rebound.
What SanDisk is truly worth trading is not a single candlestick, but whether the market is willing to reassign AI to higher valuations. August 13, Investor Day, may be where the next round of expectations really begins $SNDK $THETA | 4H Chart 👀
This one has a pretty clean structure right now.
What caught my attention is that $THETA didn't just spike and immediately collapse. After pushing from the 0.1272 area, price spent some time building a base, then buyers came back and pushed it toward 0.1426.
Now we're around 0.1409, basically sitting just below the recent high.
A few things stand out to me:
Price is holding above MA7 (0.1400), MA14 (0.1374) and MA28 (0.1362).
The recent breakout came after a period of consolidation, which makes the move look more structured.
0.1426 is the obvious level I'm watching. That's where sellers have already shown up.
On the downside, 0.1380–0.1360 looks like an important area for buyers to defend.
My personal read
I'm actually more interested in what happens around 0.1426 than the current green percentage.
If buyers can finally clear that level and hold above it, that would give the chart another confirmation of strength. But if price keeps getting rejected there, I'd rather see it consolidate than force another move.
The good thing is that the current pullback is still relatively small. As long as the price keeps respecting the recent higher-low structure, I don't see a reason to call the setup weak yet.
Personally, I wouldn't chase the candle here. I'd watch the reaction at the high and the 0.136–0.138 support zone. Those two areas should tell us a lot about whether this is continuation or just another rejection.
Just sharing my personal chart reading from the setup shown. This isn't a trading signal, buy/sell call, or financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.The big short sellers who once called it a "storage winter" have just turned a lot: Is the bull market script for storage stocks solid again?
In 2021, someone published a report that the global semiconductor sector was in a collective avalanche.
That report was called—"Memory, Winter is Coming."
The person who published the report is Shawn Kim. Chief semiconductor analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Since then, he has been known in the Korean market as the "short seller's spokesperson."
Five years later, the same person has just changed their way of speaking.
On August 7, Shawn Kim released its latest research report, officially shifting from bearish to bullish.
He said: The most dramatic adjustment in the memory chip industry is nearing its end, and current valuations offer an "attractive tactical entry opportunity." He described this adjustment as—
"A small ripple in the AI supercycle."
You might wonder: What's the big deal about an analyst going bullish?
But the irony of this matter is ten times harsher than you might think.
Just two weeks ago, SK Hynix had just kicked Morgan Stanley out of its own $26.5 billion US IPO underwriting syndicate.
$26.5 billion, the largest foreign IPO in the US. Assuming an underwriting fee rate of 0.5%, the commission alone amounts to $130 million.
The final underwriting syndicate consists of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase.
Morgan Stanley was the only top-tier investment bank not selected.
Industry insiders generally believe the direct reason Morgan Stanley failed was because it repeatedly released reports bearing on Korean semiconductors, including the famous "storage winter." You bear my company while trying to make $130 million in underwriting fees?
SK Hynix: Sorry, the door is over there.
And then?
Then Morgan Stanley turned around and chased more.
Not only did I chase a lot, but I chased it even harder—
SK Hynix maintains target price of 2.6 million KRW and Samsung Electronics target price of 381,000 KRW.
Based on the benchmark stock prices used in the research report, this corresponds to approximately 74% and 65% potential upside, respectively.
Even more impressive: Morgan Stanley raised SK Hynix's 2026 EPS forecast by 13%.
A company that just kicked you out of the IPO underwriting syndicate—
Not only are you not angry, you even raise your earnings forecast, setting it at a target price of 74%.
What is this called? It's called "saying no with your mouth, but honest with your body."
So what exactly did Morgan Stanley look after?
First, valuations have become ridiculously cheap.
Currently, storage stocks are trading at about 3x the 12-month P/E ratio, barely reflecting any long-term growth premium.
What does 3x PE mean?
Cheaper than bank stocks.
Second, the demand for AI is stronger than anyone imagined.
At the FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit, Micron clearly stated: AI is permanently reshaping the storage industry into the core of system architecture, with memory's share of total system value rising from 10% thirty years ago to nearly 50%.
Both DRAM and NAND are in short supply and will continue beyond 2027.
SK Hynix itself forecasts that DRAM demand will grow 20% year-on-year and NAND demand nearly 20% in 2026.
Almost all of the incremental growth comes from data centers.
Third, the market focus is shifting. Morgan Stanley believes the market focus for storage stocks is shifting from price cycles to capital returns—stock buybacks, free cash flow, and long-term supply agreements (LTAs) will become the next wave of stock price catalysts.
But don't get too happy just yet.
Morgan Stanley also warned that the pace of storage price increases is slowing.
The quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM contract prices fell from 96% in Q1 to an expected 16% in Q3.
NAND dropped from 88% to an expected 13%.
By the fourth quarter of 2026, the industry will gradually enter the latter part of the cycle.
At that point, the operating leverage brought by price will weaken, making it more difficult for profits to exceed expectations.
Additionally, Apple is testing Changxin Memory's DRAM chips for iPhone and MacBook.
Although Changxin's production capacity is nearly full this year and it cannot take on new international major clients for now, the long-term threat of substitute supply is real. When the prophets of the "winter" begin to take off their down jackets—
What are you waiting for?
Even the biggest short positions have flipped too much, which shows two things:
(1) The recent pullback is a result of leveraged clearing, not a fundamental collapse.
(2) AI-driven storage demand is rigid and stronger than anyone imagines.
On August 10, South Korea's KOSPI index rose over 2%, SK Hynix once rose more than 4%, and Samsung Electronics surged more than 3%.
The market is voting with its feet.
The script for storage stocks may be completely different from what you imagine.
Those who panicked and cut their flesh in July have probably finished crying by now.
And those who understand the "bear-to-long" signal—
Quietly entering the market.
Would you believe this "short endorser" was bullish? Or do you think this was just a "remedial bullish" after Morgan Stanley was kicked out of the underwriting syndicate?Micron's biggest danger now isn't a decline, but the market starting to fight for "pricing power" again
This period of MU's market performance is quite interesting.
From the chart, the 1-hour level has just undergone a very typical liquidity clearance: the price quickly plunged to around $860, then quickly pulled back to the $874 level, with both the dip and rebound showing significant volume. Currently, the MA5 is around 873.5, and the price has returned to near the short-term moving average, but the above area remains a resistance zone between $878 and $889.
So for now, I won't directly define this rebound as a new round of gains; it feels more like a repricing of bulls and bears.
What truly deserves attention is that the fundamental divergence is widening.
Micron itself emphasized after its Q3 earnings report that memory demand in the AI era is driving a stronger Q4 outlook, and the company believes long-term customer agreements can improve predictability of future performance. Today, Micron's management also attended the KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum, and the market is clearly still re-trading around the AI memory boom and expectations.
But on the other hand, the market is beginning to worry about a more distant issue:
Strong demand for AI memory ≠ MU's stock price can be priced at a higher growth rate indefinitely.
The biggest recent debate has shifted from "whether there's demand for HBM" to when DRAM/NAND prices will peak and when new supply will truly be released. This is also why capital has become increasingly sensitive after MU's sharp rise—trading now isn't about performance, but whether it can continue to exceed expectations.
Therefore, I focus more on three locations in this chart:
$860–$868: Short-term capital support zone. A renewed break below indicates failure of this volume rally.
$878–$889: The most critical resistance zone at present. Especially near 889, if volume fails to break through, the oscillation structure will be hard to truly change.
$895–$900: If it rises above this level again, it would mean the market is beginning to redefine this sharp drop as a shakeout, rather than a high-level distribution.
My current judgment on MU is actually more cautious than simply being bullish or bearish:
The fundamentals remain strong, but the stock price has entered a stage where "strong fundamentals and high expectations compete against each other."
The most common mistake at this stage is chasing when good news is seen, then immediately turning bearish when it drops. What truly determines the next market trend may not be "whether AI memory is booming," but how much future profit has already been priced in near $874.
If 889 persists, I'd rather continue to treat it as a high-volatility oscillation; If volume increases and it breaks above 900 again, then I will significantly improve my judgment of a trend restart.
The most important question for MU next is: Is the market currently in the middle of the memory trading supercycle, or has it already started trading the 2027 cycle turning point ahead of schedule? $MU $BZ Clear Fundamental Term Contradiction:
* Short-term positives: The Strait of Hormuz is still close to being effectively closed, Iran has proposed conditions such as sanctions lifting and compensation, and uncertainty in transport negotiations continues to maintain a risk premium. (Latest updates from Reuters)
* Short-term supply remains tight: Brent crude was about $85.1 in the near month, about $83.2 in November, and about $81.5 in December, indicating a clear discount structure indicating tight spot prices but the market expects supply to resume in the future. (Brent crude forward curve)
* Overloaded inventory structure: Although U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels in a single week, they are still about 6% below the five-year average for the same period; gasoline and distillate inventories are 7% and 12% lower, respectively. (EIA Weekly Report)
* Significant demand suppression: China's imports in July were about 8.41 million barrels per day, down 24.3% year-on-year, with average imports in June and July far below pre-conflict levels. (China's crude oil import data)
* Mid-term bearish logic: EIA expects global inventories to still decrease by 2.2 million barrels per day in Q3, but will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in Q4, and forecasts Brent crude average price to be around $70 in Q4. (EIA Global Oil Market Outlook)
On the capital side, as of August 4, Brent Oil Management Fund had net long positions of about 165,000 lots, down about 20,000 lots from the previous week. Short positions have increased, but are far from reaching the level of "extreme crowded short positions," so this round of rally feels more like a return of risk premium rather than pure short squeezing.I just refreshed Maji Big Brother's Hyperliquid public address. The biggest change was clear: he didn't exit or short the market; he simply reduced his previous long position of 6,600 ETH to 6,000. This move really pushed the liquidation line down a bit. Currently, this position is a long position of 6,000 ETH, with 25x cross-margin trade, an average opening price of $1,893.59, and a nominal value of about $11.4 million. The account equity is down to $328,000, and the withdrawable balance is still zero. It seems this order isn't dead yet. Based on Hyperliquid's price around $1,900 at the time, he still had about $38,400 in unrealized profit on paper. The problem is, the liquidation price is at $1882.99. In other words, if ETH drops about $17 again from around $1900, it will once again touch the strong flat line face. Converted to percentages, that's only about 0.9% of the space. This is the scariest part of Maji Big Brother's deal. If you look at his position list, you might think he's still making a profit. Look at his reckoning price—it feels like he's driving the whole car on the edge of a cliff, with tires crushed to rubble and still pressing the accelerator forward. When he just bought 6,600 ETH, the liquidation price was still around $1,895. Now, after cutting 600 coins, the liquidation price has dropped to around $1883. This gesture showed he was aware of the dangerThere are rumors that the vote on the CLARITY Act before the recess was a major setback for crypto compliance, but in my view, this delay may have made Tether and Circle quietly breathe a sigh of relief.
On the eve of Congress's recess in August, the highly anticipated Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed to pass a procedural vote in the Senate. Because it failed to obtain the 60 votes needed for passage, the final vote on the bill was directly postponed until after Congress reconvened in mid-September. Once the news broke, the probability of the bill's passage within the year plummeted, and many self-media outlets and analysts began loudly calling for tighter regulation and blocked access to compliant off-exchange funds, casting a shadow over market sentiment.
But if you carefully consider the underlying benefit distribution of this bill, you get a completely opposite conclusion: this legislative tug-of-war and postponement is actually a get-away card for the existing stablecoin giants.
Let's think carefully: if the CLARITY Act were successfully passed and quickly implemented in August, what shock would it have on the market?
One of the core provisions of the Act sets extremely high compliance thresholds and penetrative reserve audit requirements for stablecoin issuers. More importantly, it effectively opens the door to stablecoin issuance for traditional commercial banks. Once the compliance path is fully clarified, traditional credit giants like JPMorgan Chase and Citibank, which have massive US dollar deposits and government connections, can directly enter the market and, with their unmatched clearing networks and capital strength, issue bank-grade dollar stablecoins.
At that point, what will Circle and Tether have to compete with them?
The core profits from existing stablecoin issuance ultimately come from seigniorage and risk-free US Treasury spreads. Tether uses hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves to buy high-yield US Treasuries, making billions annually without paying USDT holders any interest. Once Wall Street giants directly bring licensed stablecoins, under deposit reserve systems and highly transparent regulation, they are very likely to offer competitors with yield rebounds or interest deductions, or even use bank credit endorsements to completely squeeze existing offshore stablecoins out of the compliant market.
It can be said that the political tug-of-war and legislative resistance between the two parties in Congress have actually become a natural bulwark for the existing stablecoin giants. As long as the bill is not enacted, traditional banks will be unable to issue stablecoins directly due to risk control and compliance red lines, and this staggering U.S. Treasury spread pool will remain monopolized by Tether and Circle.
I often allocate assets and engage in lending arbitrage across various on-chain protocols. To put it bluntly, as players fighting in the market, while pursuing absolute compliance, what matters most is the meager native returns in the lending pool. If Wall Street financial institutions use the most standardized and painless methods to recruit all stablecoin businesses, withholding most of the spread on high-yield US Treasuries, then the liquidity dividends and arbitrage space left for retail investors in the DeFi ecosystem might not even be a cent.
The delay is not a failure of compliance; it is more like a delaying war over financial discourse power. In this delaying war, offshore stablecoin giants are frantically building walls with the profits from US Treasury spreads, making final defensive preparations for the inevitable Wall Street counterattack.
#CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window has been moved backward 现在最容易亏钱的，不是踏空BTC，而是把局部暴涨误判成全面山寨季。
BTC目前约 6.47万美元，市占率约 57.2%；全市场稳定币规模约 3020亿美元。资金并没有消失，但风险偏好仍高度集中。
更有意思的是，上周美国现货BTC ETF连续5日净流入，累计约 8.54亿美元，其中贝莱德IBIT贡献约 6.93亿美元，占81%；ETH ETF同期也流入约 2.45亿美元。机构回流的是核心资产，而不是无差别扫货山寨。
因此当前行情更接近：
BTC负责稳定风险锚，山寨内部争夺有限流动性。
我现在只看三类信号：
持续放量、回踩有承接、板块内出现扩散。
单日暴涨不叫主线，缩量反弹也不等于反转。
观察池可以很大，真正仓位必须克制。
存量市场最重要的能力，不是找到涨得最快的币，而是识别资金愿意连续留下来的地方。$BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in the earnings report remain to be resolved
8.9 billion yuan in revenue cannot stop a disappointing guidance
$SNDK The financial report is out. Q4 revenue was 8.97 billion, up 372% year-on-year. Gross margin was 84.6%, and adjusted EPS was 39.25, both exceeding expectations. It also approved a $14 billion buyback. Then the stock price fell from 1278 to 1191, a nearly 7% decrease.
A company that rose 372% was knocked back by the market after handing in its homework. Why?
Because of guidance. Next quarter's median revenue guidance is 10.55 billion, while the market wants 11.1 billion. That's a 550 million difference, and the stock price fell 7%. The market doesn't look at how well you did in the past; it looks at how well you can perform in the future. If you can't give it what it wants, it sells.
But what I want to say is something else. SanDisk has now signed 10 long-term agreements covering 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion. More than half of the shipment bits in fiscal year 2027 have already been locked, and two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. Data center revenue has increased 14 times from $213 million a year ago to $2.977 billion.
A company that once survived on the NAND cycle and made a living by quarterly bargaining now holds nearly 100 billion yuan in long-term contracts. Its cyclical nature is gradually being stripped away. But the market still values according to the logic of cyclical stocks—when you make money, you think you're going to lose; if your guidance is lower, you think you're not. You make money from long-term contracts, but the market still wants to value you by cycle—this is where the divergence lies.
Goldman Sachs put it bluntly—"Market expectations have exceeded reality." It's not that SanDisk didn't do well enough; the market had previously set expectations too high. In June, the stock price peaked at 2354, dropped to 998 in July, rebounded to 1400, and then crashed back as soon as the earnings came out. The half-year K-line has been like a roller coaster.
On August 13, Investor Day, management will come out to tell stories. On NAND supply and demand, AI storage routes, and how to spend the 14 billion yuan buyback. The market is waiting—waiting for a reason that can convince itself that SanDisk is worth this price.
The earnings report won, but the market didn't. On August 13, let's see how management responds.After the first batch of restricted shares was unlocked, SPCX not only did not crash but continued to strengthen. On the day of the August 6 exclusion, SPCX hit a low of $105.23, but there was no large-scale sell-off afterward. Instead, it rebounded all the way to $137.17, a rebound of about 30.4% from the low. Currently, open interest is valued at about $263 million, with leading funds not yet fully withdrawn, closer to high-level long-short turnover—about $5.986 million in unrealized gains for long positions, and about $1.155 million for shorts. But the most dramatic scene happened at one address—0x320, the largest short position in the current SPCX. The largest short position increased against the trend, with floating losses exceeding $2.39 million. This address shorted 171,600 SPCX shares at 10x cross-margin positions, with a position value of about $23.534 million, averaging $123.2. As SPCX rose to $137, the unrealized loss reached about $2.396 million, a return of -113.4%, and a liquidation price of about $211.45. At the time the unlock transaction was launched, this address held approximately 71,700 short positions. Since then, it has been continuously shorted by about 99,900 contracts, adding approximately $13.7 million in short exposure, and expanding position size by 139.3%. Even after rebounding more than 30%, it still failed to stop losses and instead increased its position against the trend. This is not betting on the rebound ending, but betting that the "lifting of restrictions and sell-offs" will be delayed but will not be absent. Meanwhile, some profit-taking long positions have chosen to cash out 0xda1d addresses closed 20,000 SPs today at an average price of $134.83SanDisk$SNDK opened lower at 1193 today and then spurred up to 1278, but failed to hold and was pushed back to around 1250. The market clearly shows the upper shadow at $26.29.
SanDisk rose from a 52-week low of $42.82 to a high of $2,354.39, still up 426.64% year-to-date—this level of gain, the decline after the August 6 earnings report is not a simple correction, but a repricing of valuation logic. Previously, the market's price-in was the extreme optimism of "unlimited AI storage price hikes," but weak Q4 guidance broke this narrative.
⚠️ So today's needle is more like a bullish counterattack in a bearish trend, rather than the starting point for a new round of gains.
👂 A real trend reversal needs to be seen:
(1) 20-day line 1371;
(2) The MACD differential value returns above the zero axis;
(3) The storage sector stabilized overall.
None of these three conditions have been met yet.
$BTC $ETH
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? $MMT MMT is a typical "manipulation monster coin," with extremely low circulation + highly concentrated chips + historical precise liquidation records. Essentially, it is a bet against a counterpart who controls large amounts of chips and information.
Short-term (sentiment-driven): BEP20 channel is now online + contract open interest surges by 38.52% + negative funding rate; short squeeze may push prices to a further rally. But it has retreated from the high, with increased divergence at the high.
Mid-term (chip logic): Under a highly controlled market environment, the direction is determined by the market makers, and technical analysis reference value is limited. Unlocking pressure in November is a sharp sword hanging overhead.
Long-term (Fundamentals): If the Sui ecosystem continues to develop and products form a closed usage loop, MMT may shift from event rallies to fundamental rallies; However, currently, FDV/market cap is severely disconnected, with obvious valuation bubbles. 刚看到一个兄弟上了个不小的多单，LITE这单看着就不是闹着玩的。
币种是 xyz:LITE，3x杠杆，方向开多，开仓价 855.03。
这单持仓规模有 101,282 美金，数量 118.454，手笔是有了，但手笔大不代表你就能闭眼抄，很多人一看这种单子就热血上头，跟着冲，最后亏钱的还是自己。
老韭菜说句难听的，杠杆这东西最怕的不是看错一瞬间，是看错了还死扛，嘴上说价值，手上全是情绪单。
别把链上提醒当圣旨，真走错了该止损就止损，留得青山在，别等市场替你按强平。In the past couple of days, $BTC has been able to climb back above 65,000, mainly driven by two forces.
First, the U.S. nonfarm payroll fell by 23,000 jobs in July, with employment clearly weakening, prompting the market to lower its forecast for further rate hikes in September. BTC is currently around 65,200, with an overnight high of 65,393, reaching a nearly two-week high.
Second, liquidity conditions have begun to improve. Over the past week, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs combined for net inflows of about $1.1 billion, at least indicating that institutional funds have not continued to withdraw on a large scale.
The biggest variable now shifts to the US July CPI to be released at 20:30 on August 12. The BLS has confirmed the release date, and the market currently expects a year-on-year increase of about 3.4%. Meanwhile, Brent crude has risen back to around $85, and inflation risks have not completely disappeared.
So short-term trading can be handled like this.
65,350–65,500 will remain the first resistance zone. After 15 minutes, volume increases and it holds above 65,500, then consider going long. Start with 65,800, then continue strong and then look for 66,000–66,200.
If it breaks through 65,350 and quickly falls back below 65,000, consider this move as a failed breakout for now. Watch 64,700–64,800.
65,000 can still be repeatedly pulled back, so the bullish structure is temporarily maintained. If it closes below 65,000 for 15 consecutive minutes, just chase long after a short while.
The recent news has generally been positive for BTC, but CPI has not yet materialized. Above 65,000 is possible, so there is no need to fully fill positions early.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? $ROBO analysis, and is there any suspicion of a surge followed by a sell-off like the recent hottest $BICO $BEAT? And is it considered an air coin or a concept coin?
One of the AI + Robotics narrative projects.
Project fundamentals
The main topics of Fabric Foundation are:
* AI Agent and robot collaboration network
* Robot identity authentication
* Machine-to-Machine Economy
* Decentralized robot infrastructure
* AI + RWA + robot narrative combined
Currently, about 22% is in circulation, with a total supply of 10 billion coins and a market value of around $24 million, making it a small- to mid-cap project.
Is there suspicion of manipulation?
There are several distinct features
(1) Low circulating supply
Currently, only about 22% is in circulation.
Means:
* Project Team
* Foundation
* Early Investors
Still holding a large amount of chips.
This structure naturally forms easily:
Easy to pull up
Selling it down is also easy
But that doesn't necessarily mean malicious manipulation.
(2) Price movements are very narrative-driven
ROBO once surged several times from its lows before falling back by more than 80%.
This trend is typical:
* AI hotspots
* Binance Alpha
* KOL promotion
* Community FOMO
Driven by income rather than fundamentals.
(3) Mismatch between trading volume and market capitalization
Recent trading volume accounts for a relatively high proportion of market capitalization.
There are two possibilities for this situation:
* Real capital entering the market
* Market makers frequently change hands
Trading volume alone cannot judge the situation.
ROBO belongs to: moderately high control panel structure.
Causes:
* Low circulating market
* Strong AI storytelling
* The foundation holds a large amount of chips
* Market capitalization is relatively small
However, so far, no clear evidence of "single address control 90%" has been found, similar to the Dogou project.
What is the most likely move for the dealer later?
If the AI robotics sector catches fire again:
Phase One:
* Sideways trading to accumulate shares
Phase Two:
* Release information
* Listed on the exchange
* AI robot hotspot
Phase Three:
* Rapid boost of 50%-150%
Stage Four:
* Selling off with high-level fluctuations
This is the most common scenario for small and mid-cap AI coins.
Conclusion:
ROBO is more like an "AI robot concept coin" rather than a mature robotics infrastructure project.
If AI Agent + Robotics becomes a new hotspot in the future, it could strengthen again; But at this stage, prices are still driven more by funding and narrative than by revenue or user scale.On-chain "withdrawal wave" VS price "falling relentlessly"—who's lying?
Amazing signals of exchange traffic
CryptoQuant data shows that the exchange supply ratio for $XRP has dropped to 0.03, meaning the amount of XRP available for immediate sale has significantly decreased, reducing potential selling pressure.
On Binance, whale wallet addresses transferring over 1 million $XRP account for more than 55% of all withdrawals. Shark wallet addresses holding 100,000 to 1 million XRP also account for 24.5% of withdrawals. On Coinbase, shark addresses account for 55.8% of withdrawals, while whale addresses contribute 15%.
Both major data platforms show that large holders are frantically withdrawing coins, while retail investors remain indifferent 🐋.
Detailed explanation of support positions
$1.01-1.02: The current price is close to this area.
$1.00: Key psychological level, breaking below will be the first since November 2024.
$0.95: Deeper defensive zone.
$0.88-0.92: Broader demand zone.
Detailed explanation of pressure levels
$1.05: Resistance at the descending trendline.
$1.10: 50-day EMA dynamic resistance.
1.18-$1.37: 100-day and 200-day EMA resistance zones.
Why didn't the withdrawal wave drive up prices?
This is a classic on-chain paradox: whales withdrawing coins means holding long-term, but the price is declining 🤷 ♂️.
There are several possible explanations:
First, retail investors are selling off as hedging. While whales are withdrawing, retail investors and small holders are continuously selling, offsetting each other.
Second, withdrawing coins does not equal buying. Whales withdrawing $XRP from exchanges does reduce immediate selling pressure, but that doesn't mean they won't gradually sell off on the OTC market.
Third, network activity is sluggish. XRPL's on-chain daily payment volume has fallen by about 90% from its peak earlier this month. XRP network speed is only about 0.0034, far below the larger peak seen earlier this year. A network with such low activity struggles to support price increases 📉.
Positive
· The exchange supply ratio dropped to 0.03, a record low for the period
· Whale withdrawals account for over 55%, and major players' confidence remains strong
· After unlocking 1.06 billion tokens, it still held $1
Bearish
· XRP network speed is sluggish, far below its previous peak
· XRPL daily payment volume has fallen about 90% from its peak
· Retail participation dropped to 18%, indicating a lack of market breadth
#本周三CPI公布. Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? #现货ETF资金回流. Can BTC and ETH take over? $SNDK $MU $SKHY 存储股经历财报后的大幅回调后，终于开始止跌反弹。 三星、SK海力士率先回升，美光、SNDK等美股存储标的情绪也开始修复。现在市场最大的争议已经不是业绩，而是： 这轮调整到底只是杀估值，还是存储周期真的要见顶？ 回购先解决估值问题 三星和SK海力士近期都释放了加强股东回报的信号。 这个消息对现在的存储股很重要。 前面市场最大的问题并不是公司不赚钱，而是股价涨得太快、估值太高，资金开始集中兑现利润。 如果后续回购、分红甚至注销力度超预期，相当于公司直接用现金给估值托底，短期抛压自然会缓和。 苹果找长鑫，短期反而说明内存还紧 另一个值得注意的消息，是苹果正在寻找更多内存供应选择，包括测试长鑫存储产品。 很多人看到这个消息会担心三星、海力士和美光被中国厂商抢份额。 但短期我反而认为： 苹果主动找新供应商，本身就在证明内存供应依然紧张。 真正需要担心的是长期。 如果长鑫等厂商持续扩产，传统DRAM竞争会越来越激烈，最终还是会影响价格和利润率。 真正的风险还是扩产 存储行业最大的敌人永远不是需求，而是自己。 AI带来的HBM、服务器DRAM和企业级SS灰度在8月7日一口气撤回了$ADA 、$HBAR 和$DOT 三只信托ETF的S-1申请，三份文件在不到四分钟内密集提交。
这不是SEC驳回，而是灰度自己主动喊停，明确表示不再推进这三只基金的股份发行。
目前灰度手里最大的仓位还是比特币和以太坊相关产品，GBTC和比特币迷你信托、以太坊信托及迷你产品合计占了大头。
已经落地的还有Solana质押、Chainlink、XRP、Dogecoin、Sui、Avalanche质押等单币或质押型产品。
多资产基金方面，智能合约基金刚完成季度再平衡，BNB被加进来并成为最大权重，大约占三成。
ETH和SOL紧随其后，ADA和HBAR虽然还在，但比例已经很小。
其他还在初步申请阶段的包括Bittensor、Aave、BNB、NEAR、Zcash等。
灰度并没有全面退出山寨币赛道，只是在主动筛选，把资源往更有商业落地可能的方向集中。
而机构推进产品时也会不断做取舍。申请推进不等于最终上市，仓位调整也不等于短期买卖信号。
对普通投资者来说，与其被单个撤回消息牵着走，不如观察它真正把钱和精力放在哪里。I'm Ci Ge. Today, I'm not talking about candlesticks, but about governance.
On August 9, Bitcoin's block height reached 961632, and nodes supporting BIP-110 officially entered the mandatory signal phase, splitting off from the main Bitcoin chain into a minority chain. The forked chain went live for about 8 hours, mined only 2 blocks, and then completely stalled. As of August 10, the forked chain was still stuck at block 961633, while the Bitcoin main chain had advanced above 961833, trailing by more than 200 blocks.
A high-profile soft fork took less than a day from launch to failure.
BIP-110 was proposed by anonymous developer Dathon Ohm in December 2025, with Bitcoin core developer Luke Dashjr providing draft suggestions. The official name is a temporary soft fork for data reduction, with the core goal of restricting non-financial data such as Ordinals inscriptions, BRC-20 tokens, and the Runes protocol from writing to Bitcoin blocks for about a year. Supporters argue that non-financial data occupies block space and drives up transaction fees, deviating from Bitcoin's original purpose as a monetary system.
However, Bitcoin protocol upgrades require miners to vote through block signals, reaching a certain threshold to lock and activate the new rules. BIP-110 sets the activation threshold at 55%, far below the standard 95% standard of regular BIP-9. Even so, during the actual mandatory signaling period, miner support rates hovered between 0.31% and 2.5%. Of the 2016 blocks in the last difficult cycle, only 51 sent support signals, accounting for about 2.53%, falling 1,085 blocks short of the 55% lock-in threshold.
After the fork, a few chains inherited the mining difficulty of about 127.48 trillion on the Bitcoin mainstream, but attracted only a very small amount of hashrate. The BIP-110 chain takes about 350 days to complete the next difficulty adjustment, while the Bitcoin mainnet takes only 14 days. Pioneer Pool Roughnecks announced on August 9 that mining would stop, with Ocean's hash rate plummeting from about 36 EH/s to 1.25 EH/s, a decrease of about 96.5%.
Almost all the core members of the community stand in opposition.
Blockstream co-founder Adam Back bluntly stated that this simply doesn't work, would break multiple mechanisms, and there is neither technical nor ecosystem consensus. Bitcoin security expert Jameson Lopp called it reckless and doomed to fail, pointing out the risk of splitting, potentially generating unusable UTXOs, preventing fundamental long-term data storage, and placing a compatibility burden on wallets and presigned transactions. Strategy founder Michael Saylor published 110 arguments opposing the proposal, with the core argument that Bitcoin does not need pure guardians, but neutral guardians. He also pointed out that about 99.85% of Bitcoin's hash rate remains on the mainnet. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun was even more aggressive, saying Luke Dashjr is not only financially bankrupt but also his personal credibility. Bitcoin Core contributor Mark Erhardt even proposed removing Luke Dashjr from his BIP editorial position, accusing him of abusing editing rights.
Impact on BTC price: After the fork news broke, Bitcoin's price continued to fluctuate narrowly around $65,000, with no significant fluctuations. This is not fundamental negative but a governance dispute, and the dispute has already ended in failure. About 99.85% of the hash rate remains on mainnet, and a few chains that fail after forks have no substantial impact on the mainnet. What truly deserves attention is the governance disagreement exposed by this incident: should Bitcoin remain neutral, open to the market, and allow permissionless innovation, or restrict specific uses through consensus rules? This debate will not end with the failure of BIP-110, but it will continue to exist in the form of proposals, discussions, and disputes, rather than as chain splits.
Bitcoin doesn't need guardians of purity; it needs neutral guardians. This statement is worth pondering more carefully than any candlestick.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miner support insufficient $BTC $ETH $BICO This employment data is truly crucial! U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below market expectations, and employment data from previous months was sharply revised downward. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, it was not due to a sudden surge in the job market, but rather a further decline in labor force participation. The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings also slowed to about 3.2%, showing clear signs of a cooling job market. (Reddit) So the market's first reaction was not "an immediate economic recession," but rather: pressure for Fed rate hikes in September significantly eased. The US dollar index weakened, gold continued to hold above $4,400, and market safe-haven and rate-cut trades for precious metals reheated up. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks remain at high levels, with the S&P 500 staying near its all-time high. (Reuters) But it's important to note: this rebound in risk assets does not mean the economy suddenly strengthened. Currently, this is mainly driven by interest rate expectations, corporate earnings, and AI narratives. If inflation rises again afterward, or if the market shifts from "rate cuts/no rate hikes" to a "recession" logic, risk assets may still experience significant volatility. On the market: $SPY remains near historical highs, with the overall trend of U.S. stocks remaining strong; $NVDA Resilience remains amid strong AI capital and tech stocks, but chasing highs still requires attention to valuation and volatility; $SPCX The selling pressure after the earnings report has been somewhat digested, with a clear recent recovery; Conversely, some large tech stocks opened up among the others提醒一句：日元被官方联手干预之后，涨幅今天已经跌回去一半，美元兑日元重新摸到 159。连一国央行、拿着真金白银下场干预都摁不住趋势——散户拿着三五倍杠杆逆着盘面硬扛一个亏损单，凭什么觉得自己能扛赢市场？扛单的人心里想的是"它总会回来"，市场想的是"先把你的保证金收走"。方向错了就认，别跟趋势较劲，你没有央行那么多子弹。Tonight, the US stock sector was torn apart, storage semiconductors generally pulled back, the aerospace sector showed resilience, bulk commodity crude oil strengthened, and gold fluctuated at high levels. On the macro level, the market is waiting for new guidance from CPI inflation data, and funds generally choose to reduce positions and wait and see. $BTC: Following the Nasdaq for volatility, it hasn't broken away from the broader framework of U.S. stock risk assets. Only when US tech rebounds does BTC have a chance to break upward; US stocks have plunged, and BTC is likely to be under pressure simultaneously. Currently, there is no standalone market, so don't fantasize about a complete decoupling of US stocks and a one-sided rise. $ETH: Greater elasticity compared to BTC. Institutional funds are slowly allocating but lack narrative catalysts, with short-term momentum mainly accumulating momentum through volatility. If US tech continues to weaken in the future, ETH should be especially wary of its drawdown potential. A brief look at key stocks: ▪️ $SNDK SanDisk: Storage sector bottoming out, short-term volatility digesting earnings pessimism ▪️ $SPCX: Aerospace sector representative, directly affected ▪️ by RKLB's earnings report tonight $XAU Gold: Rate cut expectations remain, short-term only profit-taking This stage is a data pre-data chaos phase. Whether in US stocks or the crypto world, false breakouts and breakouts will increase. Try to minimize leverage and wait for macro data to materialize before making moves.Monday night's BTC and ETH market analysis
In the evening, BTC pulled back to a low of 64,500, then continued to fluctuate narrowly nearby.
Last Friday, the easing positive factors brought by negative nonfarm payroll growth continued. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net weekly inflow of $854 million, marking the best capital inflow since April and providing bottom support for the market. However, multiple news sources suppressed the situation, preventing incremental funds from entering aggressively, and trading volume continued to shrink throughout the day. This round of support was solid, with no deep sell-offs, and bulls firmly held the short-term consolidation center. The resistance above 64,900-65,100 remains stubborn, with multiple attempts failing to break through with increased volume.
Right now, it can't fall or rise, a typical state of gathering momentum while waiting for Wednesday's CPI to land. Short-term support is at 64,000; below 62,800, strong defense is needed. If support is not broken, the structure will remain volatile and bullish; If it doesn't break 65,100, there will be no one-sided upward trend.
Several core negative news factors are holding back bulls: First, Berkshire Hathaway ended its 14-quarter share reduction and began aggressively bottom-fishing US tech stocks, increasing its position in Google, but management has clearly stated it will not allocate to crypto assets, indirectly suppressing overall market risk appetite; Second, international oil prices surged in the evening to reach the $80 mark. If oil prices continue to rise, it is highly likely to push up the energy sub-item in July CPI, intensifying inflationary stickiness and indirectly raising the probability of Fed rate hikes; Third, although stablecoin market caps have slightly stabilized, off-exchange incremental enthusiasm is weak, and there is insufficient market activity, making it difficult to sustain a continuous rally.
ETH has a cleaner performance than BTC, with a very clear advantage in independence.
The current price is near 1900, with a pullback to 1892 supporting in the evening effective. Intraday short-term profit-taking has basically been digested, and ETH spot ETFs have seen a slight capital return. The independent recovery structure remains intact, making it the most stable mainstream coin in the market. Resistance above is 1940-1950. After a volume breakout, upside potential can be fully opened; 1890 is the dividing line between strong and weak for the day. Holding it means maintaining an independent slightly strong trend. If it falls below it, it will lose its own rhythm and passively follow BTC in a weakening linkage.
Don't expect a major unilateral rally this week. The nonfarm payrolls have already completed a round of easing expectations. The rebound in oil prices, Berkshire Hathaway's bearish crypto sentiment, and weak liquidity continue to weigh on the market. The only thing waiting for funds in the market next is the July CPI inflation data on Wednesday night, which will determine the Fed's September monetary policy direction. #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? 🚨 Breaking news: Is this nonfarm payroll a positive or negative news?
Tomorrow night at 20:30 (Beijing time), the U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be released.
This could become an important catalyst for the next phase of the US stock market, bonds, and crypto markets. More importantly—
It could directly reshape market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.
The previously released ADP employment data was significantly below expectations, sending a signal to the market:
👉 The U.S. job market may be gradually cooling down.
So, will this nonfarm payroll confirm this trend, or will it surprise the market again?
📊 Three scenarios, three market responses
1️⃣ Nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations + wages rose in tandem
🔥 Overheated employment → rate cut expectations delayed → US Treasury yields rising.
High-valuation AI, growth stocks, and the storage sector may face the greatest pressure.
$MU. $SNDK Profit-taking and capital outflows are more likely, whereas value-based blue chips in the Dow are relatively more resilient.
2️⃣ Nonfarm payrolls are significantly weaker than expected + rising unemployment
🚀 Cooling employment → rising expectations for rate cuts → US Treasury yields falling → technology growth stocks benefited.
AI hardware and storage sectors may experience an oversold rebound.
⚠️ But here is a key risk:
If the data is so bad that the market starts worrying about a recession, then the "interest rate cut boost" could quickly turn into "recession fear," triggering a widespread sell-off of risk assets.
3️⃣ Nonfarm payrolls basically met expectations
⚖️ Employment cooled mildly, neither hot nor lukewarm.
In this case, the current market structure may continue:
The Dow Jones was relatively strong, the Nasdaq fluctuated at high levels, and funds continued to rotate between different sectors.
Market returns:
Earnings report + earnings guidance + valuation + capital flows
The logic.
🔍 Besides nonfarms, what else am I paying attention to?
1️⃣ Storage sector: Rebound ≠ New main rally
Recently, the storage sector experienced sharp fluctuations following the earnings report.
$SNDK has already emerged from a clear deep V-type reversal, but the previous downward revision of expectations triggered by the earnings report has not completely disappeared.
One of the most critical observation objects right now is:
👉 $MU can the key support hold up.
If support is effective→ structural repair within the sector may occur.
If it effectively breaks below →, this round of storage market may enter a longer valuation digestion phase.
⚠️ Do not mistake an oversold rebound for a new major upward wave.
2️⃣ Market differentiation will continue
The trend of "all stocks rising together" is gradually fading.
The ones who can truly gain a capital premium are:
✅ The financial report exceeded expectations
✅ Guidance is stronger than expected
✅ Healthy cash flow
✅ Future growth is highly certain
Conversely, even if current profits are high, as long as future guidance is conservative and capital returns are insufficient, capital may continue to be abandoned by capital.
Next, stock selection may be even more important than index direction.
3️⃣ Unlocking pressure still cannot be ignored
$SPCX still faces significant unlocking pressure.
When liquidity is thin, this kind of supply pressure may temporarily amplify sharp market volatility.
👀 Key watchlist
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
⚠️ Momentum weakens / capital outflow
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🟡 Waiting for signal confirmation
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
💰 Strong stocks favored by capital
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🧠 The current core market logic
🟠 $BTC
The core of liquidity in the crypto market. The strength of BTC determines the overall risk appetite and heat of the market.
🔵 $ETH
Institutional funds continue to pay close attention, and the market is gradually completing chip exchanges and accumulation through fluctuations.
🟣 $SOL
A representative of strong resilience in the Layer-1 sector. If market liquidity expands again, upward resilience is worth attention.
🤖 $TAO & $WLD
AI remains one of the most important narratives in the market, and capital is continuously seeking new AI main themes.
🔥 $HYPE
It can serve as a window to observe market speculative sentiment and overall risk appetite.
🐕 $DOGE & $ZEC
A retail investor sentiment thermometer allows direct observation of whether short-term market speculation heat has reheated up.
🎯 The last sentence
There is no absolute positive or negative factor in the nonfarm payroll itself.
What truly matters is:
Nonfarm payroll data→ unemployment rate→ wages→ U.S. Treasury yields→ rate cut expectations→ risk asset responses
So tonight, don't just focus on that number.
Don't trade news itself.
🔥 The market's reaction to the news.
#DailyOrbit Deposit stocks have stopped falling, but the bull market isn't over yet?
After the financial reports of storage stocks, valuations continued to drop, but now Samsung and SK Hynix have started to rebound, and market sentiment has finally recovered $SNDK $SKHY $MU
I think this round of adjustment is more like a valuation sell-off than a fundamental reversal.
First, both Samsung and SK Hynix are signaling stronger shareholder returns. If subsequent buybacks and dividends are strong enough, short-term selling pressure will be significantly reduced.
Second, Apple began looking for more memory suppliers, including testing Changxin. Many people see this as a competitive headwind, but looking at it from another angle:
Even Apple has started actively sourcing stock, which itself shows that memory supply remains tight.
What really needs to be worried, is future expansion.
The most classic scenario in the storage industry is: shortages→ price hikes→ huge profits→ crazy expansion→ price drops.
So next, I will focus on one core question:
Can AI demand still outpace new capacity?
My view remains unchanged for now:
Storage has not yet entered a bear market, but now is only a repair; it is not the time to blindly chase the price again.CPI week kicks off, and here's a cross-market signal to note: USD/JPY hit 159 today, half of which was already wiped out from previous interventions. A stronger dollar usually suppresses $BTC in a hidden way—it doesn't cause a crash, but it quietly drains upward momentum from risk assets. Add in Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI, and the real variable this week is interest rate expectations, not any on-chain news. BTC is now around 64,000, open interest is extremely low, funding costs are only mild to positive, and you're waiting for data to guide you. Don't jump to conclusions for the market before the data comes in. Look at your positions.当前整个市场处在CPI数据来临前的观望窗口，风险资产整体不敢大开大合，板块分化非常明显。 美股这边，存储半导体集体走弱，$SNDK闪迪、$MU美光、$INTC英特尔同步回调。英特尔虽然传出政府持股的利好消息，但资金并不买账，利好落地反而出现抛压。航天板块相对抗跌，$SPCX微红，今晚盘后$RKLB财报是航天板块的胜负手，如果财报不及预期，会直接打压整体风险偏好。原油强势上行，黄金高位小幅获利回吐。 放到加密市场，$BTC作为风险资产总锚，走势高度绑定纳指波动，美股科技股震荡，BTC也维持区间来回拉锯，没有走出明确方向。 $ETH机构ETF资金持续在场，但缺少爆发性催化，更多是磨底蓄势。一旦美股科技出现大的跳水，ETH回调幅度往往会比BTC更大；如果美股风险偏好回暖，ETH弹性同样更强。 逻辑很简单：现在$BTC、$ETH更像高β科技资产，和美股共享同一套美元流动性。美股科技杀估值，币圈很难独立走出大牛市；美股风险偏好回暖，币圈才有向上打开空间的基础。 接下来重点盯两件事： 1、盘后$RKLB财报，影响航天与整体市场情绪； 2、即将到来CPI通胀数据，决定美联储降息预期，直接左右美股+加Here's a question: If 5 Bitcoins are held on an exchange for a whole year, how much interest does it earn? The answer is less than $10.
This is a real problem with Bitcoin—it does not generate revenue itself. Bitmine and MicroStrategy both face the same dilemma here, but at least Bitmine can tell a "revenue story," because Ethereum's staking yields can be included in the income statement, making ETH its means of production. MicroStrategy's narrative basically revolves around "hoarding coins and waiting for a price increase."
However, although Bitcoin doesn't have native returns, ordinary users can still profit from exchanges. I chose OKX for regular investment and coin hoarding because they've been running staking mining activities, offering about 5% annualized returns per session, with a quota of 5 BTC per account, at least covering part of the living expenses. Without these activities, pure coin hoarding would be tough.The White House takes action for the first time to remove a Fed governor—the foundation of the dollar's credit is loosening, and BTC's long-term logic is being reinforced
In the 112-year history of the Federal Reserve, this is the first time a president has attempted to remove a sitting board member. Trump took action against Lisa Cook, accusing her of "mortgage fraud," but behind it lies a political tug-of-war over interest rates. This matter is far more significant than just a change in candidates—it touches the institutional foundation of dollar credit. The market is watching in the short term, but the medium- to long-term transmission logic of BTC is worth your careful attention.
Brief summary:
1. The core of the event
· The White House officially notified Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook of the proposed dismissal and gave him a 21-day response period (ending August 26).
· The allegations of mortgage filing fraud were alleged, but Cook's lawyers said it was "baseless" and had filed a lawsuit. Last year, the Supreme Court ruled that he could remain for a while.
2. Trump's "Triple Move"
· Remove Cook (a dovish board member, possibly replaced with a more hawkish candidate);
· He has repeatedly communicated privately with Federal Reserve Chairman Wash, covering topics such as Iran and AI;
· Further adjustments to the Fed's personnel composition are being considered.
· The White House denies direct pressure on interest rates, but the market is well aware.
3. Why it matters—shakes the foundation of the dollar's credibility
· Federal Reserve independence is the institutional cornerstone of dollar credit. Once interest rate decisions become politicized, global trust in dollar assets will be undermined.
· In the short term, the market first reacts to uncertainty (safe-haven→ gold strengthens and BTC fluctuates around 65,000). If the recall succeeds in the medium to long term, the narrative of non-sovereign asset BTC will be reinforced.
4. The probability of a rate hike in September is affected
· If Cook is replaced by hawks, the FOMC voting landscape will shift, and the current 40% probability of a rate hike could rise again.
5. Strategy and Nodes
· The period before August 26 is a critical period for legal maneuvering. If the recall succeeds→ the US dollar credit premium will be repriced, which will be positive for BTC in the long term; If it is blocked→ market will return to macro data-driven growth.
· Don't heavily bet on direction; wait for the situation to become clear.
$BTC $ETH Here's a living specimen of thematic hype—let's see: Archer Aviation jumped 14% today after acquiring several Boeing eVTOL subsidiaries. Traditional markets are also playing the pure narrative-driven approach—a single acquisition news or a "future track" label can trigger a big bullish candlestick. This is exactly the same logic as meme and concept coins in crypto: first there's a story, then capital, and then fundamentals add stock. The only difference is that the stock market at least has real business as a baseline, while much of the on-chain narrative is just empty air. You can watch the drama, but don't treat narrative as a moat. Those who know, understand.As the leader in modular data availability (DA) layers, Celestia (TIA) often faces systemic sliding pressure the higher its technology adoption rate in the Layer 2 ecosystem. This counterintuitive assertion sounds incredible, but it reveals the harshest "utility valuation trap" in the tokenization process of public chain infrastructure. Today in 2026, as we watch almost all popular Ethereum L2s and application chains lining up to integrate Celestia to reduce their own data storage costs, TIA's secondary price still fluctuates lifelessly in a low-level quagmire, causing extreme pain for countless long-term retail investors who cling to the modular narrative.
Looking back at the timeline of the evolution of modular pioneers from the halo to the hollowing out of value, we find that the seeds of crisis were actually sown three years ago.
At the end of 2023, the Celestia mainnet launched with great fanfare, quickly becoming a hot star in the crypto world thanks to its pioneering data availability sampling technology and low storage costs. At the time, everyone firmly believed it was Ethereum's strongest support, even imagining TIA becoming the rarest underlying security consensus staking in modular ecosystems.
By 2025, with the expansion of mainnet data space and the addition of competing tokens, a ruthless DA pricing war has begun. Although Celestia has gained market share, its data storage services have almost no premium pricing power, and the total data DA fees paid by Layer 2 networks have been compressed to dust, resulting in the network's annualized revenue being less than some mainstream DApps' daily fee profits.
Next up is the upcoming August 31, 2026. Celestia is about to undergo another round of massive token unlock releases of about 10.7 million TIA (about 1.1% of total supply).
This tightening timeline finally delivered a cold public lesson on token dilution to all investors in early August this year: technical success did not translate into actual value capture at the underlying token level; Meanwhile, the continuous linear unlocking by early-stage capital and teams was diluting secondary retail bulls into fuel through daily inflationary pressure.
As someone who deeply participated in TIA staking arbitrage, I personally felt it was very bitter. Back then, I saw staking yields reaching double digits, and seeing one new project after another announce airdrops based on Celestia and giving out airdrops to stakers. I was indeed blinded by this superficial prosperity. But when I calmed down and calculated the real DA fee income of only a few hundred US dollars per day across the entire network, while large amounts of TIA tokens were dumped on the secondary market every day during the same period, the merciless arithmetic pull made me break out in a cold sweat.
When the pressure to dilute chips far exceeds the output of ecosystem self-sustaining, any exquisite modular narrative is nothing more than a slow bleeding game to cash out VCs' liquidity.
Celestia proves that a "good product" does not equal a "good token." When your service becomes too cheap and commoditized, your token inevitably becomes a worthless consumable with no capability to capture value.
Of course, my pessimistic judgment about Celestia's valuation collapse may also overestimate the inflationary selling pressure caused by unlocking, overlooking the potential new purchasing power TIA could unleash as a cross-chain consensus secure collateral after the full chain interoperability upgrade.
But before that, if the commercial essence of modular DA remains a price-war with no barriers, blindly believing TIA's narrative is merely using real money to fill the abyss of early lock-up whales.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard No need to guess tonight. Before the macro data release, the market was narrowing in a narrow range—BTC was bouncing back and forth between 64,788 and 65,363, ETH was stuck between 1,905 and 1,934, and bulls and bears were waiting for Wednesday's CPI to be the starting point.
There are several noteworthy signals on the news side:
1. The Ethereum Foundation has released another shipment
On-chain monitoring shows that the foundation's donation wallet transferred out 566.27 ETH (about $1.09 million), and a related address transferred 2.62 ETH to a suspected exchange address. Although the volume is small, every time the foundation's address changes, the market habitually becomes tense—after all, the narrative of "the foundation selling at the peak" is so deeply ingrained that it may somewhat suppress ETH sentiment in the short term.
2. MARA sold 23,093 BTC but still holds 35,577 BTC
Mining company MARA cashed out $1.6 billion in the first half of the year and still holds about $2.3 billion in Bitcoin reserves. This move is actually quite rational—it locks in profits while keeping a reserve position, indicating that the mining company hasn't turned the long-term trend short but has just recovered costs and kept pure profits to keep pursuing. The actual selling pressure on the market is limited, since it's not a sell-off type.
3. U.S. stocks opened lower, but technology and communications sectors were locally strong
The three major indices opened slightly lower, but the communications sector continued its gains, with Meta up over 1%, Marvell and Lumentum up over 4%. The AI-related hardware narrative continues, which also indirectly supports risk appetite in the crypto market. Intel fell over 3% after announcing a $15 billion common stock issuance plan—traditional semiconductors are expanding through financing, indicating the industry's momentum remains.
4. Korean funds continue to buy Zhongji Accelink H-shares
Net purchases of $43.39 million in one month, four times that of the second place. FOMO sentiment among Korean retail investors has long been a barometer of market sentiment. This hot money is increasingly spilling over from traditional stock markets to emerging tech assets, serving as a side signal for crypto.
Market summary: BTC and ETH are both holding sideways above support levels, holding at low levels is acceptable, but funds are clearly waiting for data to be realized. No need to rush to pick sides; it's safer to follow the direction after CPI releases 🎯SOL's community snapshots provide both popularity and tone, but not necessarily on the same side. OKX Onchain OS recorded 10 mentions in one hour on August 10 at 20:00, with 10 mentions of X and 0 news articles; The total for 24 hours was 447. The latest hour is 0.54 times the hourly average for the long window, which is about 46% lower than the 24-hour average, which can be classified as "clearly slowing down." This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations. The text tone is 60% bullish, 0% bearish, and about 40% neutral, currently classified as "bullish clearly dominant." 24-hour long 52%, bearish 9%; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in discussion structure, rather than directly defering price targets. I would separate these two lines. If the tone is more frequent but mentions are slower, it means the current discussion is more positive, but new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions increase and are bearish with an advantage, it may be risk or faulty news attracting people. Even if the buzz and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying. Sources are another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be retweeted repeatedly; The more concentrated the source, the more it needs confirmation from the next window. An increase in news mentions does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verification standard. Within 24 hours, SOMicrosoft is rumored to be releasing its self-developed Maia 300 AI chip as early as September, and has even secured a production capacity of over 300,000 units with TSMC—AI capital spending shows no sign of slowing down. But in the crypto context, it's best to stay calm: in this round of multi-billion-dollar Capex, the proportion of actual "decentralized computing power" flowing is almost negligible, with the vast majority being self-built and closed-loop digestion by giants. So the equation "AI narrative = crypto AI sector benefiting" is mostly just speculation by retail investors. It's NVIDIA and TSMC that are hot, not those on-chain tokens. Data won't play along with you.August 10 | In-depth review of US-Israel-Iran situations: The game has entered a delicate window of activity—what should oil prices and the crypto market focus on?
Planet Daily:
The Middle East game is once again receiving multiple signals: the US and Iran opting for limited consultations, Iran completing high-level personnel changes, Israel ramping up its military buildup, and the prospects for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain, directly affecting risk appetite in crude oil, gold, and crypto markets.
1. U.S.: Trump Makes Statement to Handle Iran Issue Low-Key
Trump revealed that the U.S. is currently choosing to handle the Iran issue quietly, prioritizing economic pressure and temporarily suspending large-scale military strikes, with both sides maintaining only a limited "semi-negotiated" state.
The U.S. has observed Iran's high inflation, tight treasury funds, enormous fiscal pressure, and even military spending being squeezed, with the maritime blockade further amplifying Iran's economic difficulties. Trump described the current U.S.-Iran rivalry as a game of chess, saying there is still a possibility of a negotiated resolution, but did not provide a clear timetable.
2. Israel: Diverting industrial funds for emergency arms purchases, reversing its stance on withdrawal
The Israeli government officially approved an emergency defense budget, diverting industrial subsidies originally allocated to Intel and adding 1 billion new shekels in military spending, all for emergency weapons purchases, setting a new record for defense budgets.
According to local media reports, Netanyahu had previously agreed to withdraw troops on a small scale from three areas in Gazafah, but later suddenly changed his stance, making it clear that before Hamas disarms, the Israeli military would not withdraw from the Gaza Strip and reject external peace proposals, making it difficult to quickly resolve the regional ground conflict in the short term.
3. Iran: Personnel changes at the top level, approval of the Strait of Hormuz Security Plan
On August 9 local time, the Iranian parliament unanimously passed the Security Outline for the Strait of Hormuz, simultaneously completing senior personnel changes in national security agencies and reaffirming its sovereignty over the strait's waterways.
The outline sets rigid rules for navigation, restricting passage for ships from hostile countries and goods linked to Israel. Iran emphasizes: Whether the strait can be fully opened depends on the US lifting its maritime blockade and halting military operations; As long as the US blockade is not lifted, the strait will not meet the conditions for full navigation.
Current situation: Iran and Oman are already negotiating a temporary navigation technical route, but technical consensus does not guarantee the reopening of the strait. The final decision depends on the outcome of the U.S.-Iran negotiations, so there are still many uncertainties.
4. The transmission logic for global trading markets
1. Crude oil: Short-term risk aversion has cooled down, but that does not mean the risk is completely eliminated. As long as the Strait of Hormuz does not fully resume normal navigation, oil prices will continue to face upward pulse risk. If the situation intensifies again, oil prices will surge rapidly.
2. Gold: The trump card for geopolitical hedging remains; a stabilizing situation will suppress gold prices; Sudden conflicts will quickly push safe-haven buying up.
3. Crypto Market: BTC and ETH are risk assets. Middle East moderation is positive for risk appetite; If the conflict escalates, it will trigger market-wide risk aversion and amplify spike volatility.
Key point: Don't trade based solely on a single piece of news; the situation can reverse, and news can fluctuate at any time.
Summary
Currently, the Middle East is in a delicate stage of fighting without breaking: the U.S. prioritizes economic sanctions over war; Iran endures enormous economic pressure while firmly holding the strait; Israel continues to expand its troops, while plans to withdraw from Gaza are shelved.
Although there seems to be a glimmer of hope in negotiations, the multi-party conflicts have not been substantively resolved and could erupt again at any time. Both the commodity market and the crypto market need to continuously monitor the developments.#财报观察员: Bearish pullback becomes the focus—what $SPCX outlook on going forward? $SPCX wave of unlocking is far from over, and subsequent rounds of unlocking pressure will come in waves one after another. 📅 Unlocking Timeline: The first batch of 911.5 million shares was unlocked on August 6, followed by subsequent unlocking arrangements: - August 20: about 319 million shares - September: expected about 700 million shares - October: close to 700 million shares The overall unlocking is divided into nine phases and released in batches, continuing until 2027. The lock-up period for Musk and some core shareholders has been extended and won't end until June next year. The bullish and bearish battle continues. Currently, over 250 million shares of $SPCX are still in short selling status, with short positions not exiting. - If internal shareholders sell off on a large scale after the lock-up is lifted, shorts will gain more chips and ammunition; - If actual selling pressure is less than market expectations, bears face the risk of being forced to retreat. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears is not yet over. Market Insights: The first round of unlocking on August 6 exceeded expectations and withstood the shock; stock prices did not fall but actually rose, but this does not mean that every subsequent round can be smoothly absorbed. The total unlocking scale for September + October has already exceeded the initial 911.5 million shares, and the continuous release of shares is the real test. $SPCX valuation at the current position varies greatly, and different cyclical perspectives lead to completely different conclusions. Faced with the upcoming lock-up lifts, it's not suitable to place heavy bets. Stay on the sidelines and wait until the chip structure is fully stabilized before making further judgments. NoWhy focus on $DOGE? $SPCX Musk's Starlink token on August 1 and 8.2 saw a doji volume shrink to the extreme bottom, then on August 3 and 8.4, it turned weak to strong with strong volume, then on August 5 and 8.6, saw explosive volume shakeouts, and most importantly, on August 7, the unexpectedly strong volume rebounded the big bearish candle from the previous two days. This is not just strong — I don't want to trade US stock tokens. Only Musk's $DOGE, with the same attribute, needs catch-up rally. Actually, tonight's US market open panic points are when I should hold heavy positions, because I've been waiting for an opportunity to resonate with SPCX's daily bearish candle. Unfortunately, the second order at 0.6952 had a network issue, so I didn't chase it, since I was also doing catch-up arbitrage. As long as my thinking is correct, there are plenty of opportunitiesLet me ask you a question: if you hold 5 bitcoins worth over $300,000 just in an exchange for a whole year, how much interest would you earn? As shown in the picture, the answer is less than $10. This highlights the awkwardness of Bitcoin as a non-income-generating asset. Although Bitmine and MicroStrategy have both suffered heavy losses, Bitmine can still present a revenue story to the capital market. Ethereum's staking yields can be included in the profit statement, making Ethereum Bitmine's means of production, whereas MicroStrategy can only tell a story of hoarding coins and waiting for price appreciation.
Fortunately, although Bitcoin itself doesn't generate income, ordinary users can still take advantage of exchange benefits. The reason I choose to dollar-cost average and hold coins on OKX is because there are always ongoing staking mining activities, each offering a 5% annualized return, and each account is given a 5 BTC quota. At least this can cover some living expenses; without these activities, holding coins would be really tough. Let's talk about the structural issues on the counterfeit side: let's see: tonight, see where the funds go—traditional energy (oil and gas collectively strengthening), AI hardware (Microsoft's self-developed chips, TSMC's expansion), all in the direction of "visible and tangible cash flow." Looking at the chain on the other hand, aside from a few old narratives still spinning in place, there are almost no new stories that attract incremental capital. It's not that the coin has fallen badly, but that no new money is willing to pay for the "pure narrative." At times like this, chasing a rebound is not very meaningful; protect your bullets and wait for a truly established new narrative to emerge. Those who know, understand.$SNDK ARGUS RESEARCH upgraded SanDisk (SNDK) from holding to buy
The information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
1. Core Logic for Institutional Adjustment (Key Points from Argus Research Report)
1. The earnings report far exceeded market consensus expectations
The latest fiscal quarter's revenue, EPS, and gross margin all exceeded market expectations, with explosive growth in the data center business. AI computing infrastructure is driving continuous acceleration in demand for enterprise-grade SSDs. Alongside revenue growth, profitability has surged significantly, and fundamental momentum is rising.
2. Stock price corrections bring valuation appeal
The stock price experienced a significant pullback earlier, with a significant decline since the initial institutional coverage. Against the backdrop of continued strengthening corporate fundamentals, the price correction has made the risk-reward ratio more attractive, which is the most direct catalyst for rating upgrades.
3. AI data center business becomes the core growth engine
AI inference and training are driving demand for large-capacity NAND and enterprise-grade SSDs; The company's capacity is shifting toward high-margin data center business, with the proportion of data center revenue rapidly increasing, optimizing customer structure and breaking away from the old pattern of reliance on the consumer market.
4. Long-term supply agreement NBM new model smooths out cyclical fluctuations
Signing large-scale multi-year volume-locking and price locking agreements with leading cloud providers has allowed some revenue to be locked in early, reducing the impact of sharp spot NAND price fluctuations on performance. Institutions believe the business model is weakening the strong cyclical nature of the storage industry and improving cash flow visibility.
5. Capital return plan support
The company launched large-scale stock buybacks, which institutions interpret as management confidence in medium- to long-term operations and enhancing shareholder returns.
Argus has set a target price of $1,600.
2. Market divergence points (why previously gave holds, only now raised them)
1. Concerns about strong cyclical cycles have not been completely eliminated
Although there are long-term agreements, NAND spot prices remain the biggest variable. If AI capital spending slows and cloud providers cut back on storage procurement, falling spot prices will still suppress profits. The market's early sharp drop essentially stems from concerns about a "supercycle peaking" in trading.
2. Consumer business proactively contracted
To prioritize high-profit enterprise clients, it proactively reduced consumer-grade flash memory capacity, resulting in declining retail revenue; In the short term, sacrificing consumer market share, if enterprise demand weakens in the future, it will be difficult for consumer business to quickly fill the performance gap.
3. The contradiction of strong earnings reports and weak guidance
Q4 earnings were smashed, but next quarter's business guidance fell short of some aggressive expectations, which is the core reason for the stock price falling after the earnings was released. Institutional price increases are based on medium- to long-term fundamentals, not a gamble for short-term continuous explosive growth.
4. Industry comparison
Currently, most Wall Street analysts are in a buy/strong buy position, but the target price range is wide, from $1600 to $3250, indicating significant disagreements among institutions over NAND prices and the sustainability of AI storage.
3. How to understand this increase: a practical perspective
1. This is a follow-up adjustment after a pullback, not a hype at high prices. Argus initially covered the market with a hold; after the sharp drop in the stock price and the fundamentals did not collapse, it upgraded to buy. Core strategic points: continued AI storage demand + long-term contract hedging cycle risk + price correction to digest pessimism.
2. Risk Points:
- AI capital expenditure falls short of expectations, cloud providers reduce storage purchases;
- NAND supply was released, chip prices fell, and gross margin fell from a high of 84%;
- Multi-year supply agreements carry potential risks of customer default and demand falling short of expectations.