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Regarding the warning from smaller accounts on CT targeting infofi
The fact that at least four different fresh wallets were still long after the first announcement, or even before the second announcement, $KAITO shows me that not much has changed in the crypto space.
Although I will take advantage of the new features they offer and get free funding at the right time (since I'm a big KOL)......
…… But I warn smaller accounts not to be overly superstitious, not to buy governance tokens during a bear market, and not to expect to make money through staking, let alone YT-sKAITO.
If this really is Kaito's return, then it's an echo bull market, not a real bull market, and by definition, these bull markets are smaller in both intensity and duration.
If buying these tokens and staking them really makes money—then these whales will definitely choose to buy spot rather than leverage long positions on Hyperliquid with freshly charged wallets, right?
Hyperliquid。 #Hyperliquid海力士永续插针, the platform promised to compensate for liquidation losses #美联储即将公布利率决议 #停火48小时告吹, while the US and Iran negotiated while fighting Meta invested $31.1 billion in capital in a single quarter: operating cash flow was almost entirely absorbed by data centers and equipment
Cash flow is the most critical table Meta needs to face in Q2. Cash flow from operating activities was $31.862 billion, with $30.116 billion in property and equipment purchases, and $962 million in principal payments on finance leases; The company's defined free cash flow is only $784 million, compared to $8.549 billion in the same period last year. Revenue growth did not translate into the same amount of available cash this quarter.
The company's disclosed capital expenditure includes cash equipment purchases and finance lease principal, totaling USD 31.078 billion. This figure should not be confused with the $30.116 billion in the cash flow statement, as the finance lease principal is listed separately. Maintaining the official definition helps avoid missing rental equipment or having to calculate the same payment twice.
Operating cash flow itself is affected by a large amount of non-cash and working capital items. Depreciation and amortization amounted to $6.356 billion, and stock-based compensation was $7.658 billion; Increased accounts receivable led to a cash outflow of $4.401 billion, while accrued expenses and other current liabilities increased to $5.933 billion in cash inflow. Net income of $15.848 billion cannot be directly considered cash generation capability.
As of the end of June, cash, cash equivalents, and securities totaled $90.26 billion, with long-term debt totaling $83.664 billion. The two totals are similar, but you can't simply subtract them to claim the company has no liquidity risk or is completely debt-free, because the maturity structure, lease liabilities, taxes, and working capital also need to be read. Having enough cash to provide a buffer for investment does not mean investing is free.
Meta narrowed its full-year 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $130 billion to $145 billion, compared to the previous range of $125 billion to $145 billion. This is management's expectation for the future at the time of the Q2 release, not the actual expenditure. In the first half of the year, cash equipment purchases amounted to $49.113 billion, and finance lease principal was $1.805 billion, still showing a gap in size and timing compared to the full-year range.
Capital commitments are not equivalent to current payments. Data center construction may first sign long-term procurement, lease, or power contracts, and then form asset and cash flows based on project and delivery progress; Ending commitments, acquired equipment, and cash capital expenditure for this quarter answered different questions. If subsequent 10-Q reports more detailed commitments and lease notes, separate tracking should be listed, and undisclosed single-quarter orders should not be pushed back from the $130 billion to $145 billion range.
After new data centers and servers are put into service, depreciation will gradually enter costs in the coming quarters. Q2 depreciation and amortization rose from $4.342 billion last year to $6.356 billion, an increase of about 46%. Even if subsequent capital expenditure growth slows, depreciation of completed assets may still rise, so AI returns should be evaluated based on three lines: revenue, operating profit, and cash.
This quarter's cash story can be summarized as: advertising generated strong revenue and operating cash, but investments in data centers, equipment, and leasing absorbed nearly all quarterly free cash flow. This doesn't automatically mean investment failure, nor can it be dismissed as just a 'long-term need.' If Family of Apps' profit margins recover and free cash flow improves, it will be even stronger evidence that new capacity is beginning to generate economic returns.人工智能革命正在分化软件行业：
美国基础设施软件指数和美国安全软件指数年初至今上涨了22%，表现优于行业的其他部分。
与此同时，美国垂直软件指数和美国应用软件指数分别下跌了28%和34%。
这使得广泛的美国软件指数年初至今下跌了13%。
随着人工智能的繁荣推动了对云基础设施、数据中心以及保护这些设施所需的网络安全软件的前所未有的需求，基础设施和安全公司受益匪浅。
与此同时，应用软件和垂直软件公司面临压力，因为投资者担心人工智能将自动化更多任务，减少对传统软件许可证的需求，并降低转换成本，使客户更容易更换供应商。
人工智能软件交易正变得越来越分散。
#英伟达、谷歌为AI数据中心债务提供巨额担保#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
The Federal Reserve just announced: interest rates remain unchanged at `3.50%-3.75%`.
On the surface, this aligns with the market's main expectation of "holding steady."
But the details aren't dovish, because the vote was `9-3`, with 3 members opposing and wanting a 25bp rate hike.
In other words:
Rates didn't move, so the market breathed a sigh of relief;
But inside the Fed, some already think it's not tight enough.
From 02:00 to 02:05, the market fluctuated up and down.
Crypto surged first, but BTC didn't break through the previous high in one go.
$BTC jumped directly from 64400 to a high of 64700 at 02:00, then fell back above 64400.
This shows the market's initial reaction was risk-on, but there is still resistance around 64700.
This data is neither purely dovish nor purely hawkish.
Rates unchanged, the market rallied first because no rate hike was seen.
But the 3 dissenting voters wanting a hike indicate the Fed is still uneasy about inflation. Especially since the statement mentioned steady economic expansion, still high inflation, and energy shocks, which is not a tone for immediate rate cuts.
In the short term, the market will first trade on the "no rate hike" easing expectation.
But if Powell's speech later continues to suppress rate cut expectations, tonight's rally could easily turn into a pump and dump.
Don't just look at how much it rose now.
What really matters is: can BTC hold steady?
Hold steady and risk-on continues.
If it can't hold, this wave will be the most common emotional candlestick pattern around the meeting.🚨 This $BTC chart should scare 🚨 you
The white candle on the chart is the 2021 cycle overlapping with today's market movement
Just look at this!
The overlap is almost perfect
Every week, I check if the pattern is broken. It doesn't
Here are some data:
2021 Cycle:
- Peak: $69k
- Decline: -77%
- Bottom: $15.5k
- Bear market: more than one year
Current Cycle:
- Peak: $126k
- An equivalent -77% drop brings us to $40k
- Each rebound weakens more and more
- The structure has never changed
The red line at $40k is not a random number. This is how the full cycle repeats on this chart
I'm not saying it will repeat exactly the same thing. But the two cycles tracking so closely for so long is something I can ignore
Most people turned bullish after each rebound in 2022
A true bottom only forms when almost everyone gives up
We haven't arrived yetBrothers, the Korean stock market is experiencing a fierce valuation rebound! After hitting a historic high of 9,385.59 points intraday on June 19, the KOSPI index took a sharp turn in less than a month and a half. Based on the current 5689 points, the index has retraced about 39% from its high; Based on yesterday's intraday low, the maximum drop is close to 44%. The market capitalization is even more shocking—KOSPI's total market cap has shrunk sharply from its mid-June high, with market estimates approaching $2 trillion, roughly equivalent to 1.55 Bitcoins in total market value. Why did it drop so badly? KOSPI is a market capitalization-weighted index, and its fate is almost entirely tied to two companies: Samsung Electronics: accounts for nearly 30% of KOSPI's market value. SK Hynix: accounts for over 20% of KOSPI's market value. Total weight: the two companies together exceed 50%. In other words, the Korean Main Board Index has essentially become an "AI storage index"—HBM demand, storage price increases, AI server orders—all rise and fall because of them. What happened from the frenzy to the clearing? Upward phase: SK Hynix's stock price surged thanks to explosive HBM demand and AI server orders, while Samsung Electronics also benefited from market bets on AI storage recovery, pushing the index to a historic high of 9,385 points. Downward phase: As global tech stock volatility intensifies, the market is beginning to examine multiple risk points—can AI capital spending translate into real returns? Competition in China's storage sector intensifies, market share is under pressure, valuations are being overdrawn, and leveraged funds are withdrawing in concentrationThis is counterintuitive: every time inference costs drop and tokens get cheaper, it doesn't mean the demand for AI computing power decreases; in fact, the demand grows
Economics calls this phenomenon the Jevons Paradox. In the 19th century, the coal efficiency of the British steam engine improved dramatically. People originally thought coal consumption would decrease, but the opposite happened—coal demand kept rising.
The reason is that as operating costs continue to fall, more and more industries that previously couldn't afford coal are adopting steam power, and the new demand ultimately far exceeds the savings.
According to U.S. Investment Network, the development of large models is repeating this pattern. As token costs continue to fall, users are no longer satisfied with completing the same tasks with less computing power; instead, they keep creating new application scenarios: millions of contexts, deep reasoning, multi-agent collaboration, 24-hour resident agents, real-time video understanding...... These capabilities, which were previously unpopular due to high costs, will quickly become new standard features.
Therefore, the cheaper the token, the less computing power it needs, but rather the release of more complex new demands, ultimately replenishing the saved GPU computing power and VRAM. This is the "Jevons Paradox" of the AI era.
If placed in the context of AI investment or analysis of computing power industry chains like NVIDIA and AMD, this statement can be further elevated:
The long-term logic of AI is not "every time inference costs drop, GPUs are no longer needed," but "every drop in inference costs spurs larger new applications, driving continued growth in total computing power demand." This is also why large model prices continue to fall, while global data center capital expenditures continue to hit new highs.
$AMD $NVDA $AVGO $MRVL $MSFT #美股Why did AI suddenly go crazy buying old books? Behind it is a data crisis that no one is paying attention to!
We may have underestimated the brutality of this AI war.
AI companies are mass-purchasing old books, out-of-print books, and foreign language books, cutting the spines with hydraulic presses and scanning them at high speed into training data. Not for cultural preservation, but because high-quality human writing on the internet is nearly everywhere, and the internet is polluted by a large amount of AI-generated content.
Court documents show that Anthropic launched "Project Panama" as early as 2024, purchasing and dismantling millions of paper books.
$META and other giants have also been embroiled in copyright lawsuits over training data issues. AI currently lacks not only $NVDA computing power and $MU memory, but also "real human data" that has not been processed by AI.
But this does not mean that traditional media like $NYT and $NWSA will become rich. Old books and historical news are one-time stocks; if you buy and scan the model once, it can be used long-term; Although copyright litigation can raise content prices, it may not necessarily lead to sustained high growth.
What is truly valuable is the continuously updated data that cannot be bought out all at once: $RDDT generating real human discussions daily, $TRI grasp legal and tax data, $SPGI. $FDS grasp financial and rating data. The deeper AI penetrates specialized industries, the more it relies on this high-frequency, accurate, and traceable data.
Analysis by US Stock Investment Network believes that the real investment logic behind the AI data shortage is not "content is valuable," but rather who owns human information that machines cannot freely copy and is updated daily.
Old books are disposable fuel; only professional data can become long-term bills for utilities. #美股$ETH The volatility in the early morning wasn't as big as expected, so I kept holding short positions
In 1885, the position was reduced again
After the price dropped, it did not continue to spread, indicating there is still support around 1880. It is more reasonable to buy some first rather than waiting for the hard fall
Now it has returned to around 1900, with all moving averages crowded together, and the market is still wearing down its patience
I won't short the remaining positions in the middle of the range
Next, either wait for selling pressure to appear around 1920 again, or wait for 1880 to truly fall
Standing back to 1930, this empty hand is no longer worth grinding
$BEAT Long traded with a stop loss at 3.4 and exited. The short position earned earlier, but later the long seller knocked it back, resulting in a double kill for both long and short positions
The liquidity and volatility of the counterfeit are so extraordinary that even a little less monitoring can drastically change the position size.
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
#微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading 💀 Fear index 29, Bitcoin is at a crossroads
BTC is currently quoted at $63,950, up 0.19% in 24 hours, but the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 29, remaining in the "fear" zone for eight consecutive days.
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📊 Three sets of data to see the present:
1. Federal Reserve's "Hawkish Ceasefire"
The rate remains at 9:3, but three officials voted to raise the rate. The Dow Jones plunged 1,150 points, with $391 million in overnight liquidations in the crypto market, with long positions accounting for 70%. Macroeconomic pressure hasn't eased; in fact, it's tighter.
2. Funds are on the move
Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for four consecutive days, with a total outflow of $526 million, with BlackRock IBIT being the main source of withdrawals. Previously, it had seen over 8 billion yuan in outflows for seven consecutive weeks, and in the past two weeks, just 273 million yuan returned, only to be dumped back again.
3. Whales are buying, miners are retreating
Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC increased their holdings by 66,700 BTC over 60 days, but mid-sized wallets sold 77,800 BTC during the same period—supply is concentrated in large players. Miners are even worse: mining difficulty dropped for the first time this year, expected to drop from 148T to 126T, with one-fifth of miners operating at a loss.
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🧠 My judgment:
In the short term, let's look at two variables: Japan's interest rate decision in August and the 35% pass rate of the CLARITY Act. Any unexpected event could trigger liquidation-level volatility.
The mid-term risk can be summed up in one sentence: no new money is coming in. The ETF recovery was too slow, and the largest buyer Strategy has stopped trading for five weeks. Without growth, they can only keep grinding in the 60,000-65,000 yuan range.
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Here's the question: Before the end of the month, should you hit 67K or break 60.9K first? See you 👇 in the comments
#BTC #比特币 #美联储 #加密市场分析 $BTC Brothers, Rob Nichols, chairman of the American Bankers Association, has just come forward—banking lobbying groups want the CLARITY Act to pass, but the stablecoin issue needs to be "resolved." What does this "solution" mean? The 600-page bill only requires the banking industry to change two paragraphs. Change what? Completely blocking the path for stablecoin yields. The real abacus of banking, Rob Nichols, put it bluntly: "There's a reason they're called payment stablecoins, not deposit stablecoins." To put it plainly: stablecoins should be used as payment tools, not as substitutes for deposits—don't expect to pay interest. Why are banks so afraid? Because if stablecoins could generate interest, the U.S. banking system could lose about $1.3 trillion in deposits. Community banks' lending capacity was directly cut by $850 billion. Bank lobbying groups submitted last-minute letters in May, attempting to completely abolish the entire reward framework. Even more subtle, the banking sector is also splitting internally. Goldman Sachs CEO publicly "defected" in support of the bill, while JPMorgan CEO sided with the Bankers Association in opposition. This is not simply crypto versus banks, but a crack in Wall Street's old and new order—for Goldman Sachs, a clearly regulated digital asset market means trillion-dollar incremental space for institutional custody and tokenized securities. The essence of this game is "who has the right to define money?" Banks want to maintain the status quo, while the crypto industry wants to redefine the form of "money"—it can be digital, interest-earning, or circulate globally. Banking industryApple closed with a market value of $4.95 trillion, surpassing Nvidia's $4.76 trillion, widening the gap to about $190 billion. Nvidia plunged nearly 5% in a single day, while Apple reached the $5 trillion milestone for the first time intraday. Behind this "stock king" change is a repricing of AI capital spending logic—the market has begun to question the sustained returns of Nvidia's "selling shovels" model, while Apple's asset-light strategy has ironically become an advantage. Capital is shifting from hardware computing power to consumer applications, which is a positive signal for the crypto market. $BTC is trading sideways around $64,000, $ETH holding above $1,900, with the capital movements of US tech giants often preceding the crypto market. After Apple first reclaimed the top spot in April 2025, $BTC then rose from $58,000 to $66,000. Historical data shows that this macro shift brings incremental capital. Nvidia's adjustment may drag down short-term sentiment among AI concept coins, but Apple's rise to the top has reinforced the connection between digital assets and consumer technology. Currently, the consolidation range of $BTC $ETH is a window to observe volume changes. There's no need to chase the rally, but the value anchor is already clear. Bitcoin #英伟达 and Google provide massive guarantees for AI data center debt #美联储三票主张加息, with PCE becoming a new highlight tonight CORE Chain Survival Record: Don't talk to me about faith, all I see is a rusty liquidation machine panting
July 30, 2026, unbelievably hot. Outside the window, it's 40 degrees—CORE is even colder than outside.
I'm not here to recharge your faith, nor to short-sell. I'm just a person who squats in front of a block explorer, spending a whole day checking addresses, a whole day checking transaction records, and digging back through Discord history for three months. What I saw with my own eyes was not copied from any project team's weekly report.
Colend: This isn't a bank, it's clearly a bill shredder that can't stop
The only lending protocol still "working" Colend, now operates as an automated corpse collection team. At 4 p.m. this afternoon, the collateral pending liquidation was converted to $1.37 million, with bad debts mixed in and hanging on the table. No new deposits, no new loans—only a liquidation robot coming every few hours to make a payment—like that unmovable ECG monitor in the ICU, ticking by tick to announce it's still "not completely dead."
Interestingly, the liquidity pool utilization rate has already fallen below 4%. What does this mean? The money in the pool was more than twenty times what was lent out, but no one came to borrow because no one thought borrowing would earn it back. This bank had its lights on and doors on, but the tellers had already left their shifts.
Molten DEX: $5,000 can break through a "mainstream L2" market
Today, I specifically kept an eye on Molten's trading volume for a while. 24-hour trading volume of $42,000—not even as much as a friend of mine went all-in in yesterday's group of local dogs. Of this 40,000 yuan, 65% is still a swap between CORE and USDT. In other words, it's just a few market-making bots brushing each other to maintain a bit of dignity.
What's even more painful is the depth of liquidity. I did some calculations: now, if someone places a sell order at the market price of $5,000, the price will drop below 3 points. A so-called "Bitcoin security layer" L2 can be smashed into a pit for just 5,000 USD—who would believe that? But that's just how the data is written; I couldn't even make up something this tragic.
Those painted cakes didn't even leave a crumb behind
LSTBTC？ The official Twitter stopped updating in April, and after half a year of legal battle with Maple Leaf Financial, the ruling came in June—both sides lost—the partnership fell through, and the bridge was broken. The only thing the official account is still talking about is "BTC Pay." Today, the testnet ran its 12th round, and the mainnet hasn't even deployed a native stablecoin contract. I just want to ask: what do you want users to pay? Taking air?
As for the loud announcement at the beginning of the year about "2026 flagship buyback start," today I checked the address marked "Treasury Reserves." Eight months have passed, and when I transfer to the records section, it's still a clean zero. It's not a little, it's zero. A zero starting with a single digit.
The only place still lit up: B14G, a "Trap Mutual Aid Club"
The only chain still seeing daily active users rise is the fixed-income protocol B14G. The gameplay is very simple—you stake CORE to exchange for bCORE, then sit back and enjoy inflation rewards. Today's annualized rate is about 4.7%, with participating addresses just over 2,000.
But don't get too excited—the top ten addresses locked 76% of the volume. This isn't DeFi innovation; it's just a group of big shots stuck at high prices banding together for support, collecting some interest as a "compensation payment." Everyone knew very well: no one wanted to get rich here; they just didn't want to cut losses and just find a reason to stay on the court.
To put it bluntly: there's nothing bad to be done, but where does 'good' come from?
To be honest, at this point, projects that could run on CORE have long left, the pools that could be exploited have long been removed, and the vulnerabilities that could be exploited have long been hollowed out. Now the chain is clean, completely empty.
The good news is, it really can't break anymore, because there's nothing left that can keep breaking.
The bad news is that the official assets available for cash have almost been drained dry, the treasury address remains quiet, and the buyback numbers remain unchanged.
I can't tell you if you have the chance. It depends on two things: first, whether Bitcoin can really rally again in Q4, allowing surplus funds to re-enter this "abandoned track" and revive old stock; Second, the so-called "project team" is still willing to continue paying electricity bills for this empty city.
Today's data is right here: TVL just over $8 million, hundreds of daily active addresses, and on-chain gas fee income can't even cover the monthly rent of a cloud server.
This isn't an empty story, nor is it a 'milk story'. This is a frontline live report written by someone who has been watching the screen all day on the chain. Decide to do it yourself; I'll only take off the filter.
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(Note: All the above data can be found in the CORE mainnet block explorer and DeFiLlama snapshot dated July 30, 2026, and does not constitute any investment advice.) ） $BTC $ETH $SNDK
BlockInfinity Market Update | July 29
The FOMC decision was the biggest event today.
As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the fifth straight meeting without a change. The real surprise was the tone. For the first time since 2016, three Fed members voted in favor of a 25bp hike. While the statement changed little, the Fed reinforced its commitment to the 2% inflation target and signaled that inflation remains a concern.
Markets initially welcomed the no-hike decision, but optimism faded as traders absorbed the hawkish message, increasing expectations for a possible September hike.
Risk assets were already under pressure. U.S. equities, especially technology and semiconductor stocks, sold off sharply. Micron, SanDisk, Marvell, Intel, and SK Hynix led the decline as investors reduced exposure to AI-related hardware names. Some of the weakness was linked to patent rumors involving Yangtze Memory, which were later denied.
Gold recovered after an initial drop, while oil climbed back toward the mid-$80s as Middle East tensions resurfaced.
In crypto, BTC rebounded after the FOMC decision but remains stuck in its broader range. ETH continues to show relative strength, while SOL remains weaker than other major assets.
Funding rates remain neutral, open interest continues to decline, and institutional flows stay slightly negative.
My view remains unchanged: this was a classic hawkish hold. The market has information, but it still lacks conviction.
#Fed3Dissents #SpaceX1.6BDeal #HYPEUnstakingWave #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？
微软和Meta同一天交出成绩单，市场反应却像两家完全不同的公司。微软第四财季营收 900亿美元，同比增长18%，Azure及其他云服务收入暴增43%，全年Azure收入首次站上1000亿美元。Microsoft Cloud当季贡献593亿美元，商业剩余履约义务（RPO）飙到6780亿美元，同比大增84%。Microsoft 365 Copilot付费席位超过3000万。利润端同步漂亮，净利358亿美元，增长31%。
Meta第二季度营收608亿美元，增长28%，广告仍在发力。但自由现金流直接塌到7.84亿美元，同比暴跌约91%，创下近年新低。单季资本开支310.8亿美元，几乎把经营现金流全吃光。全年资本开支指引上调至1300–1450亿美元，第三季度营收指引61–64亿美元，中枢偏弱。股价盘后重挫。
同样在砸钱建 AI基础设施，一个已经开始把Token变成可量化的收入和利润，一个还在先烧后看。
差异到底出在哪？
微软走的是卖铲子 + 卖席位的复合路径。Azure 本身就是云基础设施，AI workload 直接变成可计费的算力和服务。企业客户签下多年合同，RPO 暴增说明需求被提前锁定。Copilot 又把 AI嵌进了Office生态，变成每月固定的付费席位。商业模式从一开始就带有清晰的变现闭环：客户用得越多，账单越高；签得越长，未来收入越确定。纳德拉反复强调的“cost-to-outcome curve”，本质就是在告诉市场：我们正在把昂贵的Token转化成客户愿意持续付钱的业务结果。
Meta走的是广告优化 + 超级计算押注的路径。AI 目前主要还是提升推荐算法和广告投放效率，这直接体现在广告收入增长上。但更大的赌注是超级智能和未来新业务。扎克伯格继续加码数据中心和算力，资本开支上限维持在1450亿美元，下限还往上提。问题是，这些投入短期几乎看不到对应的新收入来源。自由现金流被压到极低水平，等于用现在的现金去买未来的选项。市场愿意给耐心，但耐心是有价格的——当指引偏弱、现金流接近归零时，价格就会立刻体现在股价上。
这不是谁更会讲AI故事模式，而是商业模式决定了变现节奏本就不一样。微软的 AI投入大部分直接进入已有的企业客户合同和软件订阅体系，回报路径短、可衡量。Meta的AI投入有相当部分是在为尚未成型的新业务打地基，回报路径长、不确定更高。一个在兑现，一个在押注。
今晚亚马逊和苹果接力。亚马逊的 AWS能不能继续证明云+AI的商业闭环？苹果的设备和服务收入能不能证明端侧 AI也能带来真金白银？市场现在越来越挑剔：不只是听你说AI有多重要，而是要看你把钱花出去之后，收入、利润、现金流能不能跟上。
AI 故事已经从全民叙事进入分化兑现阶段。能把算力变成可持续收入的公司，会继续获得溢价；还在大规模烧钱等答案的公司，会被要求给出更清晰的时间表。这不是唱衰谁，而是资本开始用更严格的尺子量 ROI了。 On July 30, the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX a $1.6 billion contract for 18 Falcon 9 launch missions.
And then?
Stock prices should fall or fall.
This is not a joke. This is true.
Let's first take a look at what SpaceX has experienced in the past month and a half—
On June 12, it held its largest IPO in history, offering $135.
On its third day after listing, it surged to a historic high of $225.64.
Then, heading south without looking back.
On July 15, for the first time, the IPO price fell below $135.
On July 28, the intraday low was $107.01, down 20.7% from the issue price.
Its market value evaporated by $1.2 trillion from its peak.
After a month and a half, it was halved.
A $1.6 billion military contract? Market reaction: Is that all?
What's even worse is that the bears are already treating SpaceX like an ATM.
According to data from S3 Partners, about 206 million shares of SpaceX stock have been shorted, accounting for 32% of the circulating shares, with nominal open positions totaling about $25 billion.
What about a month ago? Short positions are only 40 million shares, accounting for 5% to 7%.
In just a few weeks, short positions surged fivefold.
Bears have already made $8.7 billion in book profits.
SpaceX became a carnival for bears.
But the real bomb was not detonated until August 6.
That day was the first batch of restricted shares for SpaceX to be unlocked—911.5 million internal shares would be eligible for trading.
And this is just the beginning.
From late August to late October, about 7% of shares are unlocked every two to three weeks.
By December 8, the number of outstanding shares will surge from about 639 million to 5.33 billion, an increase of more than sevenfold.
Seven times.
What does this mean? This means that the SpaceX stock available for trading now is just a drop in the tide of the future flood.
Now both sides are arguing wildly—
The bottom-fishing camp says: 1.6 billion military orders, Starlink business, Musk's narrative—fundamentals are sound, but a big drop is an opportunity. Sister Mutou is still strongly supporting her.
Bears say: valuation bubbles are severe, and some analysts believe the reasonable price is only $30 per share. Morningstar gave a fair value of $62. Now it's $116, still early.
Elon Musk himself couldn't sit still and posted on X warning the bears: "Institutions that hold large short positions for a long time have very low chances of survival."
But the bears are clearly not afraid—the proportion of short positions is still rising.
What does this drama mean for the crypto world?
The controversy over SpaceX's 'good company≠ good stock' is a common pricing challenge for all highly valued tech stocks.
Fundamentals are strong≠ stock price rises. Orders are high ≠ selling pressure disappears. Strong narrative ≠ reasonable valuation.
AI tokens, storage concepts, computing power tracks—which one isn't the same script?
The market is shifting from "watching the story" to "looking at the chips." No matter how captivating the story is, it can't withstand the massive lifting of restrictions and the empty hunt.
On August 6, 911.5 million shares were unlocked. What will happen that day?
Is it a bargain-fishing carnival, or a feast for the bears?
$BTC $XSPCX $XTSLA
#SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy between two camps Democratic Senator Merkley's remarks were full of dark sarcasm, sharply addressing the core issue of the current bill's deadlock:
Trump can earn huge profits from crypto precisely because he lacks a comprehensive Clarity Act; Once the bill is implemented and regulatory rules are filled, this gray area of profit will be blocked.
The situation becomes quite intriguing.
The industry had hoped for regulatory certainty through the implementation of clear legislation, but the core concern of the Democratic camp lies in the ethical clauses. Once the rules are finalized, the presidential family's window to leverage their status advantage to tap into the crypto market will close.
Because of this, the bill has fallen into a bizarre deadlock:
Crypto capital is fully pushing for legislation, while Democrats persistently block with conflicts of interest clauses;
The bill has been stalled for a long time, which to some extent has actually preserved the existing arbitrage space.
Many insiders remarked that this statement was nothing short of a godlike irony. Originally, everyone assumed the bill's passage benefited industries, but now it's clear that the key strategic points hindering its progress are no longer just industry regulation—they are tied to the personal interests of senior executives. #银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated The AI trade is quietly fracturing. Microsoft cut capex guidance and rallied 8.5% afterhours; the market is no longer rewarding raw spend, it is rewarding discipline. Meta's soft guidance got sold. The read that "more AI spend equals good" is breaking down, and what replaces it is more selective: execution over ambition.
Crypto is holding its ground with BTC near $64K, but the macro setup is uncomfortable. Three Fed members are now openly pushing for a hike, and PCE data lands tonight after the rate decision. Positioning reads cautious rather than bearish, which means there is room for a sharp move if the Fed or the print surprises. Flat is not the same as settled.
NFA, just my read.
#OKXOrbitThe AI value chain is undergoing a major shift: from the "semiconductor construction side" to the "cloud computing consumer side."
The core logic of market trading over the past two years is: the greater the investment in AI infrastructure, the higher the valuation given by the capital market. But now, the market is focusing on another issue—whether these investments can ultimately translate into real income and cash flow.
Microsoft has become an important signal: it is the first hyperscale enterprise since the launch of the AI Capex narrative without guidance on raising capital expenditures. Meanwhile, Azure maintained a constant exchange rate growth of 43%, with Copilot surpassing 30 million paying users and a quarterly net increase of 10 million; Google Cloud grew 82% year-on-year.
Behind this lies the timing change in the AI value chain:
Semiconductor orders are a leading indicator, while cloud computing consumption is the validation indicator 6-12 months from now.
A rare market scissors gap has emerged in the current market:
Semiconductor capital expenditure growth is starting to slow, but cloud computing demand is being released at an accelerated pace.
This window usually lasts only 1-2 quarters.
Another easily overlooked detail is that South Korea's storage industry chain revealed that over 50% of server DRAM has already been locked through LTA (long-term agreements), including prepayment and take-or-pay terms.
This means:
Cloud service providers have already locked in part of the storage costs in advance, and future pressure on HBM price increases will be more passed on to buyers who have not signed long-term agreements.
In short:
The semiconductor market is trading "price increase expectations," while cloud computing companies are enjoying "cost lock-in + demand growth."
Therefore, there is currently a greater preference for cloud computing rather than chasing semiconductors.
Google Cloud is growing the fastest, but due to antitrust pressures, its valuation may actually be more elastic; Pure AI cloud infrastructure targets benefit more directly from increased utilization.
Do not short semiconductors, because the first-order growth logic remains strong—HBM demand is growing, and AI infrastructure investment is still ongoing.
For assets with first-order guidance still rising, short selling is prone to being counterkilled by the trend.
A more reasonable strategy is not to short semiconductors, but to wait for capital to shift from "selling shovels" to "consumer AI" for a value revaluation.
The AI market isn't over; it's just that funds are searching for the next phase to truly realize value. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $GOOGL @张教主. #财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging?
Meta's financial report,
Revenue increased, R&D expenses rose, layoffs increased by 1.1 billion, lawsuit compensation for youth protection reached 2.4 billion, and net profit dropped 90%
In terms of cash flow, investments in AI data centers and other areas increased, causing a sharp decline in free cash flow
Currently, Meta's business mainly relies on advertising, 97% of its business. Xiao Zha wants to use AI to shift revenue from single advertising to a dual approach of AI and advertising. The idea is good.
But now, Wall Street is cautious about overinvesting in AI,
Because China's large models and chip manufacturing are catching up,
In the world, once Chinese people participate, there is basically no such thing as excessive profit.
So the market is starting to fear excessive investment in AI.
META's 7% drop after hours is considered a small feat.Dedicated to traders who panic sell at the sight of a death cross:
Looking back at the 2022 market, when Bitcoin and $BTC formed a death cross, the price had already pulled back nearly 29%.
What followed was not a new round of sharp declines but a bottoming reversal.
If historical scenes were to repeat themselves,
A death cross is not the start of a downtrend; on the contrary, it signals that the bottom range is getting closer.📊 On-chain analyst perspective: $BEAT Real-time market analysis
$BEAT is the native token of the Audiera ecosystem, positioned as an AI music and dance game platform for "dance & earn," with a total supply of 1 billion tokens and about 310 million currently in circulation. The project continues the 600 million user base of the classic IP "Audition," and has recently become a market focus thanks to its AI Agent + GameFi narrative and token burn mechanism.
---
📈 Support and resistance level assessment
After surging from 0.296 to a historic high of 9.34, BEAT has now dropped sharply back to near its current price, making it a typical high-beta volatility asset.
Upside resistance: The most critical resistance is in the 3.00-3.20 range. Every attempt to break through this range has met strong selling pressure, indicating substantial supply. After a breakout, the target is 3.50-3.68 and 4.00-4.50.
Support below: First line of defense at 2.70-2.80; secondary support at 2.30-2.50; core support at 1.87-2.00. If it falls, the downside may slide toward 1.50-1.51.
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🐋 Market maker movements on the chain
The whale is making a strong comeback. The Delta value of whale and retail holdings rose to 0.0123, the highest level since June 25. The new wallet withdrew 500,000 BEAT from Gate.io (worth $1.36 million); There are also large withdrawals of $4.1 million from Gate.io and $1 million from MEXC—exchange outflows are usually seen as signals for medium- to long-term holding. The market delta has turned positive at 12.2k, indicating strong buying pressure.
However, note that whale holdings have not seen a monopolistic surge in their holdings. In contrast, small and medium-sized addresses have shown high frequency and sustained net inflows over the past 30 days, with a retention rate of 74.39%. Of the 138 whale addresses, 102 are in the floating profit.
On-chain data once monitored a staggering trading volume of $683.4 million, accompanied by intense whale turnover. Recently, there is still significant selling pressure in the spot market—trading volume reached $2.55 million over three days, with a net sell of about $233,000.
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✅ Positive factors
🔹 Real income + token burn flywheel: Project teams can generate real business income and buy back and burn BEAT. In a single week, platform revenue reached 772,045 BEAT (about $2.87 million), with 770,545 BTC burned immediately. When the unlock was scheduled for July 11, BEAT surged 18% against the trend, with the burn mechanism absorbing the unlocking and selling pressure.
🔹 AI Agent + GameFi Core Narrative: After the release of the AI Agent Economy Roadmap, BEAT rose about 10% in a single day to $8.86. Differentiated features such as AI music generation and virtual idol interaction have been implemented, with over 1.7 million NFTs minted within the ecosystem.
🔹 180-day gain of 890%: Despite a significant correction, BEAT remains one of the brightest altcoins performing this year. Its market capitalization once surpassed $1.12 billion, surpassing WLD and ETC.
🔹 600 million users IP foundation: backed by the classic "Audition" IP, user conversion expectations form long-term imagination.
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❌ Bearish factors
🔻 August 1 massive unlock approaching: 21.25 million $BEAT tokens will be unlocked on August 1, valued at approximately $67.78 million to $81.66 million, accounting for 6.87% of circulating supply. This is currently the biggest short-term risk event.
🔻 Technical pressure: The price dropped nearly 35% in a short period after being rejected at $3.68. The CMF at -0.22 indicates capital outflows, and the MACD is holding a death cross below the zero axis. The funding rate has turned negative, with bears dominating. Open interest plunged 19.85%.
🔻 Narrative-driven vs. fundamentals: The current buzz mainly comes from short-term tactical hype and concentrated discussions on Binance Square, rather than a substantial change in the project's fundamentals. The product is still in its early stages, and real user conversion is questionable.
🔻 High Beta+ low liquidity risk: fell from 9.34 to 2.4, a decline of over 74%. Within three days, its market value evaporated by $700 million. Under extreme volatility, leveraged positions in any direction face huge risks of liquidation.
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🎯 Summary
BEAT is in the core game range of 2.70-3.20. On-chain signals are highly contradictory—whales are making a strong comeback to accumulate shares, real income + burning flywheel, and strong AI narratives provide medium-term support; But unlocking on August 1 is the Damocles Sword hanging overhead, putting technical pressure across the board. The direction choice depends on: whether the whale can sustain selling pressure before and after unlocking, whether the burned volume can cover the new supply, and whether the 3.00-3.20 resistance can be effectively broken. If it holds above 3.20, the rebound target is 3.60-4.45; if 2.70 is breached, the downside could slide toward 1.87 or even 1.50. Strictly control positions under high volatility. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, but the stock plunge sparked controversy between two camps #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
Will there be a rate hike in September or will it remain on hold? Tonight's PCE is the first referee, and my judgment is a September rate hike.
🔍 First, let's see what the FOMC left behind
In July, the FOMC maintained the interest rate unchanged with a 9:3 vote, marking the fifth consecutive time holding steady. But what really deserves attention are the three dissenting votes — Cleveland Fed President Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan all advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction.
More crucial is Waller's statement. At the press conference, he said: "This is not a pause, just the beginning of policy adjustment." The statement text is only 115 words, but the wording is clear — "keeping rates unchanged is not simply a pause or inertia stop, but a rigorous review of the economic situation." Waller also emphasized that "if inflation remains high, further tightening will be taken without hesitation."
The market has already read the signal. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September rate hike has risen from less than 53% a week ago to a range of 59%-82%. On the Kalshi platform, traders' probability of a September hike has also exceeded 57%. Wall Street analysts have characterized this decision as a "hawkish hold."
📊 Two key numbers in tonight's PCE data
The market expects June PCE year-over-year growth to fall back to around 3.7%, with core PCE expected near 3.36%. But there is an important variable this time: the PCE calculation method is about to be adjusted, and economists expect the adjustment may reduce core PCE by about 0.2 percentage points.
I need to see two numbers to judge whether there will be a rate hike in September:
First, whether the core PCE month-over-month exceeds 0.25% — if June core PCE month-over-month is above 0.25%, it means inflation cooling has stalled, and the probability of a September hike will jump from the current ~60% directly to over 80%.
Second, whether the overall PCE year-over-year is above 3.8% — if above 3.8%, it indicates that the transmission of energy costs is still ongoing (Brent crude once broke $100), supporting Waller's judgment that "inflation risks remain on the upside."
Conversely, if core PCE month-over-month is below 0.2% and overall PCE is below 3.5%, the probability of a September hike may fall below 40%.
💡 Asset divergence: whose pricing is most accurate?
After the decision, a typical three-way divergence appeared: Dow Jones fell 2% (one of the largest drops this year), the crypto market warmed up (BTC stabilized between 63,800-64,400), and gold climbed back above $4100.
I believe gold's pricing is the most accurate. Gold returning to 4100 indicates the market truly understood the subtext of the three dissenting votes plus Waller's "story beginning": real interest rates will not fall quickly, inflation expectations remain high, and the dollar's credit is diluting. The Dow's plunge is an instinctive reaction to "higher rates for longer," while crypto's rebound is more of a short-term relief rally on the "no rate hike" outcome — but Waller's hawkish remarks have since pushed BTC back down near 63,890.
📌 My judgment
I bet on a September rate hike. There are three reasons:
1. The three dissenting votes are not accidental — this is regional Fed presidents using their votes to pressure, indicating the Fed's internal hawks can no longer be "verbally appeased."
2. Waller's "story beginning" is a deliberate setup — he is leaving policy maneuvering space for himself; if PCE data does not cooperate, a September hike will be "the first chapter of the story."
3. Oil price is the biggest uncertainty — if Brent crude returns above $100, the probability of a September hike could instantly exceed 80%.
Tonight's PCE, I am waiting to see if core PCE month-over-month exceeds 0.25%. If it does, a September hike is basically set in stone; if below 0.2%, rate hike expectations may cool temporarily.
Trading advice for the crypto market: After the data release, if core PCE exceeds expectations — crypto may first fall then stabilize (BTC short-term may dip to 62,000-62,500), but the mid-term logic is more complex; if the data is moderate — BTC may see a rebound attempt toward 65,000.The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, a result predicted in an article from 2025.
Not long ago, Elon Musk proposed a viewpoint: by 2036, the influence of money will significantly weaken. The logic is simple—AI and robots will bring massive production capacity, with goods supply far exceeding the total money supply. In the future, the market will be dominated not by inflation but by deflation. Most people are indifferent to this.
Interestingly, as early as November 2025, Kevin Walsh made the exact same assertion. He suggested that AI would create a strong downward pressure on prices, that a productivity boom could drive economic growth without causing inflation. Today, he is the Federal Reserve Chair.
This time, the interest rate decision passed with a 9:3 vote to keep rates unchanged, with three members voting against, advocating for an immediate rate hike. Their basis is solid: inflation has been above target for five consecutive years.
Why did the majority choose to wait despite sufficient arguments for a rate hike? The answer lies in Walsh’s earlier article.
At that time, he proposed that productivity innovations would create conditions for future rate cuts. At this meeting, Walsh reiterated that the most prominent variable in the current economy is AI-related investment. Real data also confirms this: equipment investment rose 8% in Q1, and high-tech capital expenditure growth has approached 25% over the past four quarters.
Clarifying the underlying logic: prices are determined by two main factors—total circulating money and goods supply. Rate hikes can only regulate the money side by raising financing costs and suppressing demand.
But Walsh focuses on the supply side. He judges that AI will continue to lower production costs over the coming years, so even if the Fed does not tighten policy, prices will naturally fall.
If a rate hike is chosen now, while suppressing market demand, it will also inhibit long-term investment in AI, thereby delaying capacity expansion and price declines. In short, aggressive rate hikes might slow down the anti-inflation goals intended.
Walsh uses history as a reference. From 1996 to 1998, Greenspan resisted calls for rate hikes with the same logic: rising productivity suppresses inflation. During that period, the economy steadily expanded and inflation was moderate, but it eventually led to the internet bubble, so risks objectively existed.
Objectively, this theory is a minority view in academia. About 60% of mainstream economists believe AI will hardly significantly affect inflation in the next two years and may even push prices up in the short term—building data centers, purchasing chips, and infrastructure development will continue to consume funds, raising current costs. Walsh himself admits that the deflationary effect of AI is uncertain in timing and magnitude; this policy game is essentially a high-stakes gamble.
Under normal circumstances, central banks use interest rate tools to fight inflation. This time, the Fed chose to hold steady because the Chair judges that the core driver to solve inflation is not rate hikes.
If Walsh’s judgment is correct, prices will naturally fall, leaving ample room for future rate cuts; if wrong, the high inflation situation persisting for five years may continue for another two years.
Musk’s initially disregarded projection has now become the core battleground of U.S. monetary policy. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
Walsh's debut sent strong dual signals of a “hawkish pause” and “institutional reform.”
On one hand, he pressured the market with 3 votes against rate hikes and a statement of “raising rates if necessary,” demanding inflation must come down.
I went to bed early last night, basically certain there won't be a rate hike,
but the appearance still needs to be maintained, after all, he was strongly recommended by Trump, and he went with a mission,
to give Trump enough time to adjust,
the 3 opposing votes have already been signaling to President Trump, hurry up and finish your battle to bring inflation down, otherwise I can't hold it down either,
but on the surface, they have to act tough, can't direct the Democrats' firepower onto themselves,
there isn't much time left for Trump.🚀 $SNDK XPI — VIP SIGNAL
📈 Trade Bias: SHORT
🎯 Entry Zone: $240.50–$242.50
🛑 Stop Loss: $248.00
🎯 TP1: $235.00
🎯 TP2: $229.00
🎯 TP3: $222.00
⚠️ Risk Level: Medium-High
📊 Technical Analysis: NXPI is showing strong bearish pressure after dropping nearly 7%, making the $240 area a key decision zone. Resistance sits around $242–$248, while downside support appears near $235 and $229. Momentum currently favors sellers. A rejection from the entry zone strengthens the SHORT setup. If price reclaims $248, bearish momentum weakens and the setup should be reconsidered. 🔥📉$AZTEC
Price action is trading around 0.01439, sitting above dynamic MA10 (0.01411) and MA20 (0.01398), while testing dynamic MA5 (0.01440).
EP
0.01398 - 0.01439
TP
0.01440
0.01531
0.01554
SL
0.01320
Price action is holding steady in a range above dynamic MA20 (0.01398), making higher lows off the 0.01289 base. Clearing overhead resistance near dynamic MA5 (0.01440) opens path toward 0.01554.
Let's go $AZTEC
#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #SpaceX1.6BDeal Political funds in the crypto industry have officially begun to make moves.
He put $800,000 into the Michigan primary, $750,000 on Iowa, and still held $127 million in the treasury.
Previously, this fund had been held on for negotiation and negotiation.
The persuasion phase is over; now the real battle of chips is underway.
If the bill can't be reached, the legislator is replaced; If you can't buy a vote, you fight for a seat.
The chairman of the Banking Association recently stated that the entire 616-page bill only needs to be slightly revised in two paragraphs.
In other words, the only contradictions hindering the bill's progress are these two provisions. BlackRock and Goldman Sachs have already taken sides, and police-related organizations also changed their stance last week.
Currently, the only bottleneck is the ethical clause, but Trump has term limits, so the industry can't wait ten years.
The reasons for opposition are now thinning, and the funds are officially mobilizing, with only 100 days left until the election.
The real opponent of the bill is no longer individual legislators, but the passage of time.
Waiting for the bill to be put to the Senate agenda for a vote. #银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated $SKHYNIX Analysis
Around $3.78K worth of short positions were closed near $946.10, giving SKHYNIX a strong intraday push. Price is now approaching a key resistance area where momentum could begin to fade if buyers fail to follow through.
Trade Direction: Sell Short
Entry: $950-$956
TP1: $940
TP2: $928
SL: $965
Invalidation: Above $972
This setup becomes more attractive if price shows rejection near resistance with declining volume, indicating the short squeeze is losing strength rather than turning into a sustained breakout.
What are your expectations for $SKHYNIX ?The new coin's "graduation rate" has increased eightfold—has the market really improved?
Pump.fun introduced the new mechanism, the new coin graduation rate rose to 6.7%, about eight times the June average
"Graduation" refers to entering a larger trading market after the new coin meets the conditions, but it does not mean the project has succeeded
This growth mainly comes from platform rule changes: when new coins enter the market, the system automatically buys and burns a portion of the tokens, making it easier to create buying opportunities in the short term
Therefore, improving data does not necessarily mean every project has value
What truly reflects the hype is whether anyone will trade a few days later, not how quickly it surged when it first launched
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Today marks the 11th anniversary of the Ethereum mainnet launch.
On July 30, 2015, the Genesis Block was born. Eleven years later, this chain has no CEO or headquarters, yet it has packed DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, and a whole set of experiments to "bring finance into code" into reality.
The most Ethereum-flavored aspects haven't changed: the technical route is getting more complex, community debates are getting longer, but the price is still slowly hovering around $1900.
Birthdays are not a reason to be bullish, but time itself is the hardest indicator to forge. A network that has run continuously for 11 years, going through The DAO, DeFi summer, NFT bubbles, and PoS mergers, at least shows it doesn't survive on a single trending search.
$ETH What truly needs to be proven isn't whether new stories can still be told, but whether these stories can continue to accumulate into fees, stablecoin settlements, and real users.
At 11 years old, make fewer wishes and submit more homework. $ETH #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
When others are still burning cash, Microsoft is the first to call a halt
Microsoft rose 8.5% after hours, not because it earned the most, but because it was the first to say "enough".
In the past 18 months, the AI capital market has been playing the same game: whoever spends more money is the next winner. Nvidia is ramping up production capacity, data centers are locking down land, cloud providers are competing in capital expenditures—the entire industry chain is accelerating, and no one dares to slow down.
Then Microsoft was the first to hit the brakes.
It’s not cutting investment. This fiscal year’s capital expenditure still reaches $41 billion, soaring 70% year-over-year. But in the same earnings report, it did another thing: it lowered the capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2027. When guidance is raised for the long term, the market hears "keep burning"; when guidance is lowered for the long term, the market hears "I know when to stop."
Meta took a different path the same night—raising spending and dropping nearly 7% after hours. It’s not because Meta is doing poorly, but because it’s still following the old script of "spend more = win more."
On the same night, two directions emerged, and the narrative of AI capital expenditure was redefined at this point in time.
This shift is extremely familiar to the crypto market.
In 2022, the market rewarded Layer 1s that burned cash to expand—whoever had the largest locked value and the most on-chain transactions was valuable. In 2023, the market shifted to rewarding DeFi projects with real revenue—protocol income, fees, buybacks replaced TVL as the new pricing anchor. In 2024, the market shifted again, starting to reward projects that can manage costs and control spending—not just earning more, but earning more than they spend.
The AI capital market is following the same path: from "who spends the most" to "who spends smartly," and then to "who can find a balance between spending and earning."
Microsoft is the first major tech company to publicly say "I know when to stop." It didn’t cut investment; it’s just managing expectations—the kind of operation the crypto market excels at: lowering guidance to pave the way for "outperformance."
The next question is: who will follow?
After Microsoft’s earnings, the market will ask the same questions to Amazon and Google: what will your capital expenditure curve look like? When will you stop? Can you clearly explain when every dollar you spend will be earned back?
The answer to this question will affect valuations more than any AI revenue growth. Amazon’s earnings report will be the second confirmation of this turning point—it will tell the market whether Microsoft is an outlier or a trend.Overnight, Micron was dragged down by SK Hynix's earnings report, with panic selling causing the stock price to plunge nearly 10% at one point. But upon closer examination, Hynix's revenue and profits both hit record highs, showing strong fundamentals, and Micron itself has a price-to-earnings ratio of only 16, with strong long-term demand for AI memory. The market reaction was clearly overdone. Emotional lows often correspond to a turning point for recovery. Tonight, Micron is expected to stop falling and stabilize, even potentially ushering in a retaliatory rebound. 📊 On-chain analyst perspective: $LAB Real-time market analysis
$LAB is a multi-chain trading infrastructure project deployed on BNB Smart Chain, with its core product, LAB Terminal, integrating spot, limit orders, and perpetual contract trading, equipped with an AI research engine. Completion of TGE in October 2025, with a total of $5 million in funding from 14 institutions including Lemniscap, OKX Ventures, and Animoca Brands.
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📈 Support and resistance level assessment
LAB's current price is near 0.129-0.133, down about 13% in 24 hours, down about 58% in 7 days, down 99.52% from its ATK of $27.22. The circulating supply is about 312 million tokens, accounting for 31.2% of the total supply of 1 billion.
Resistance above: First resistance in the 0.21-0.25 range; after a breakout, 0.355-0.456; strong resistance at 0.43-0.45; if market sentiment improves significantly, 0.90-1.00 remains the main resistance zone.
Support below: The first line of support is at 0.113-0.12 (currently nearby); secondary support at 0.07 is the lowest in history; if breached, the downside target is 0.014-0.018.
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🐋 Market maker movements on the chain
Highly concentrated chips—this is LAB's core risk signal.
On-chain investigator ZachXBT accuses insiders of controlling over 95% of the effective circulating supply, maintaining control through complex distribution structures and over-the-counter trading. Between March and April 2026, multiple addresses cumulatively deposited over 226 million LAB to Bitget, spread across five wallets.
Whale sell-off event with a 53% plunge in two days:
· July 10: Whales transferred 8 million LAB (about $9.54 million) to Aster, with the price dropping from 1.20 to 0.89
· July 11: Another 10.5 million LAB (about $9.15 million) was transferred, with the price dropping from 0.89 to 0.56
· A total of 18.5 million LABs have been transferred, valued at approximately $18.69 million
On-chain researchers strongly suspect that the address executing the sell belongs to insiders or the project team itself. Team-linked wallets reportedly sold about 18.4 million LAB, valued at $18.3 million—these tokens came from 196 million transferred by the team in April, with nearly zero market owner costs.
The futures market has become a "meat grinder": contract turnover is about $234 million, with spot sales only $8.12 million. Holdings are about $59.04 million, with an annualized funding rate as low as -450.9%, indicating extreme short-seller crowding.
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✅ Positive factors
🔹 Product fundamentals are not just air: LAB Terminal is a real, multi-chain trading terminal, has launched a mobile application, integrated with the Monad network, and is not just a hype project.
🔹 AI + DePIN Track Narrative: The combination of AI research engines + cross-chain aggregators remains a market hotspot, with projects having certain differentiated positioning.
🔹 The oversold rebound has tremendous resilience: from an ATH of 27.22 to the current 0.13, a drop of over 99%. In an extremely oversold state, any positive news can trigger a sharp rebound.
🔹 Team burned tokens: During the July price rebound, the team burned 10 million tokens (worth about $11 million) in an attempt to boost market confidence.
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❌ Bearish factors
🔻 Founder's historical stains: Founder Vova Sadkov previously issued the token Eesee (ESE), but after TGE, the project halted development and the team shifted to LAB, leaving the original investors unused. Co-founder Mark X was reported to have been soliciting OTC buyers in Telegram groups since January.
🔻 70% of tokens unlocked: currently only 31% in circulation, with about 690 million remaining locked up. The monthly unlock of 16.23 million tokens will continue throughout 2026. On July 14, the first unlock day, the token price was only $0.40.
🔻 Profit-taking positions only 5.56% remain: the average entry cost over the past 60 days is about $3.33, and only 5.56% of shares are still in profit. Early participants with a presale cost of only $0.025 still had a profit of more than ten times — once unlocked, selling pressure was enormous.
🔻 FDV is seriously disconnected from market capitalization: FDV once reached $14 billion, but now its market cap is only about $41.58 million—the ratio remains at an extreme level.
🔻 Exchange withdrawal wave: suspected internal addresses continue to transfer tokens to Aster, with a huge cumulative amount. Increased deposits by large wallets to exchanges usually indicate preparation for potential liquidations.
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🎯 Summary
$LAB is a typical risk coin of "high market control + low circulation + team history stains." From an ATH of 27.22 to 0.13, a drop of over 99%, it is considered one of the most devastating cases of altcoin crashes in 2026. On-chain signals are almost entirely bearish—insiders control over 95% of circulation, team-linked wallets sell at zero cost, monthly unlocks continue, and founders have a history of "abandoning projects after issuing coins." 0.21-0.25 is the last line of defense for bulls, and 0.07 is the historical bottom. If this position falls, there is almost no defense below. Unless there is a fundamental trust rebuilding (such as large-scale team buybacks, transparent lock-ups, or explosive growth in actual users), any rebound tends to be a dead cat jump rather than a trend reversal. Suitable for short-term gamblers with extremely high risk tolerance, while medium- to long-term allocation requires extreme caution. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, but the stock plunge sparked controversy between two camps $SNDK US stocks rebounded across the board before the market opened, with panic quickly recovering
Before the US stock market opened, storage stocks such as Micron Technology, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all turned positive, having generally plunged 3%-4% earlier; Seagate rose 4.6%, and Western Digital gained 2.2%.
The previous sharp decline in the sector stemmed from market concerns about the storage cycle peaking and SK Hynix's performance falling short of expectations, reflecting a short-term emotional crush.
Core support remains unshaken: AI computing power continues to drive the supply-demand gap for HBM high-end memory, long-term orders from manufacturers lock in downstream demand, fundamentals remain resilient, and negative factors have been fully priced in.
Short-term sector volatility persists. Going forward, focus will be on tracking the pace of storage contract price increases in Q3 and the implementation of AI capital expenditures. The recovery momentum from overseas giants is also expected to be transmitted to the A-share storage industry chain. #Hyperliquid海力士永续插针, the platform promised to compensate for liquidation lossesLast night, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%—3.75%, which on the surface aligns with the expectation of "holding steady."
However, this vote was not unanimous; it was **9 to 3**. Three dissenters believed that a 25 basis point rate hike should have been made this time.
This is more noteworthy than the "no change" itself. The statement also indicated that inflation remains above the 2% target, and supply shocks in areas like energy continue to push prices higher. In other words, a clear hawkish force has emerged within the Fed.
Therefore, this result cannot be simply interpreted as positive news. The rate not being raised only means the policy is temporarily on hold; the 3 votes for a hike mean that if inflation remains stubborn, the market will need to reassess the risks for the next meeting.
Do you think these 3 votes for a rate hike are just an internal warning, or a sign of a rate hike at the next meeting? Let's discuss in the comments.The Fed did not raise rates this time, but the 9-to-3 tariff is more appealing than the phrase "maintain rates."
Interest rates remained at 3.5%–3.75%, yet the three commissioners advocated for an additional 25 basis points. On the surface, the car didn't move, but three people at the conference table already complained that the brakes hadn't been pressed hard enough.
$BTC Around $64,000, the market did not take off directly just because it "held the position," which also shows the market has long written no rate hikes into its answer. What truly determines risk appetite now is whether inflation and long-term bond yields will put the next rate hike back on the table.
My understanding of this resolution is simple: it's not a dove gift, but a hawkish temporary hold. If yields continue to rise, the crypto community will first pay the tuition fees for all risk assets; If inflation eases and the three rate hike bills do not continue to spread, the pressure will truly ease.
$BTC $ETH
#美联储即将公布利率决议Microsoft did something last night that everyone involved in the crypto space should think about.
While others are frantically burning money on AI, Microsoft instead cut its capital expenditure from 190 billion to 175 billion. The market immediately rewarded this with an 8.5% gain.
Meta tells a different story. Revenue is decent, but they are burning cash too fast, leaving only a bit over 700 million in free cash flow, and their market value dropped by over 100 billion after hours.
Two giants reported on the same day, and the market gave them completely different treatments. One rose because it saved money. The other fell because it spent too much.
There is an important signal here—the market is starting to reward those who manage money well, not those who just spend it.
The same logic applies to the crypto space.
Previously, as long as it was a new public chain, new AI project, or new DePIN, if the story was big enough and the fundraising was large enough, the market would buy in. Now this approach is about to change. Going forward, funds will increasingly flow to projects that can clearly explain how they make money and generate cash flow. The days of raising money just by telling a story on a white paper are coming to an end.
The crypto space has never lacked projects that burn money; what it lacks are people who can control costs during bear markets and spend money wisely.
$BTC $SNDK $ETH #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% 📊 On-chain analyst perspective: $RE Real-time market analysis
📈 Support and resistance level assessment
RE is the governance token of Re Protocol, launched on June 18 at TGE, positioned in the RWA reinsurance sector. Currently, it is in a phase of consolidation and bottoming after a rally and pullback.
Resistance above: First resistance is in the 0.54-0.56 range; after a breakout, the 0.58-0.62 range is needed, with increased volume and a solid position needed to reverse the medium-term retracement structure; stronger resistance is at 0.64 (recent rebound high) and 0.80-1.00.
Support below: The first line of defense is in the 0.48-0.52 area; secondary support is at 0.40-0.416, near historical lows; if breached, core support below is at 0.357-0.36, the historical low set on July 20.
The 24-hour trading volume once exceeded $680 million, with extremely high turnover rates and extreme volatility.
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🐋 Market maker movements on the chain
Holders are extremely concentrated. There are only about 1,912 RE token holders, and 1,227 community direct depositors. For comparison, TVL is about $466 million, with an average TVL of about $240,000 per holder. This level of concentration is extremely rare in DeFi protocols.
The chip structure is extremely uneven. The total supply is 1 billion coins, with only 159.6 million currently in circulation (accounting for 15.96%). Etherscan data shows about 9,878 holders. The top 10 holdings account for a very high proportion — a few addresses control the vast majority of the chips.
Whale behavior: After TGE, the price plunged from 1.09 to 0.36, a 68% drop. After rebounding to 0.64, it failed to break through three times. High-priced whales are mass-shipping to realize profits, but after the hype fades, buying can't keep up.
TVL structure questionable: Of the 466 million TVL, about $87 million is on-chain capital, $177 million off-chain, and about $215 million in premium receivables—a high proportion of off-chain assets and receivables, raising doubts about liquidity buffers in extreme market conditions.
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✅ Positive factors
🔹 The RWA reinsurance sector has a solid narrative: $RE Connecting stablecoins to the regulated U.S. reinsurance market, connecting 40+ insurance partners and covering about 1 million U.S. policyholders. The global reinsurance market size is approximately $700-800 billion.
🔹 True yield support: TVL is about $466 million, with a potential annualized yield of 8-16%, with very low correlation with traditional crypto markets. The protocol has real income, real users, and real policies.
🔹 MiCA compliance barriers: RE entered the European market as MiCA's "other token," primarily registered in Ireland, covering 29 EU/EEA member states. Regulatory compliance forms differentiated competitive barriers.
🔹 Full coverage of leading exchanges: Listed on major platforms such as Binance, HTX, Bitget, KuCoin, Crypto.com. The listing of WhiteBIT once triggered a single-day surge of 30%.
🔹 Small circulating listing, high elasticity: only 16% circulating, low pulling costs. If major funds enter the market, there is considerable upside potential.
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❌ Bearish factors
🔻 84% of tokens remain unlocked: this is the largest structural bearish. Teams (20%) and investors (17%) together account for 37% of the shares with a 12-month cliff period + 36-month linear release. After June 2027, 43% of the total supply will begin linear shipments—with expectations of sustained selling pressure hanging high.
🔻 Governance tokens do not share profits: RE is a pure governance token and does not directly share insurance income. Holding RE does not imply any claim to premiums, underwritten profits, or collateral assets. If the protocol encounters problems, the RE price will drop first, but holders have no institutional compensation rights.
🔻 The holder base is extremely low: only 1,912 holders correspond to 466 million TVL. If 20 people control 80% of TVL, any large redemption is a systemic event.
🔻 The new coin's high volatility curse: ATH fell from 1.09 to 0.36, a decline of 68%. It rebounded from 0.35 to 0.64, an increase of 83%. Within three days, it could fall by 12-14%.
🔻 FDV and market capitalization are severely disconnected: market cap is about $76 million, FDV about $475 million—a ratio of over six times. The current price is down 56% from the ATH.
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🎯 Summary
RE is a typical VC disk + low circulation + RWA narrative game coin. Real insurance business and MiCA compliance provide fundamental support, but the extremely concentrated chip structure of 84% ununlocked supply and only 1,912 holders is a core risk. Currently, the market is fluctuating within a wide range of 0.40-0.56, with the direction depending on: whether TVL can continue to grow, whether the holder base can expand to over 5,000, and whether the market can establish sufficient demand anchor points before large-scale unlocking in 2027. Suitable for short-term traders with high risk tolerance, mid-term allocation should wait for further chip diversification and a clearer roadmap before reassessment. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, but the stock plunge sparked controversy between two camps The most magical aspect of Meta's earnings report: revenue rose 28% year-over-year to $60.8 billion, but after hours, it fell about 9% at one point.
The market isn't seeing no growth, but another bill: EPS of $6.18, about $1.04 lower than expected; Reality Labs lost another $4.6 billion in a single quarter; Full-year capital expenditure guidance is $130–$145 billion.
Wall Street doesn't oppose Zuckerberg chasing his dreams, but every quarter he has to pay the property management fee for his dream.
What should really be looked at is not "how much AI spends," but whether advertising and AI products can continuously turn new costs into cash flow. If profit margins continue to be eroded later, even the most impressive user growth will only serve as a background.
$META
#财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will hand over their results tonight#SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy between two camps
SpaceX just secured a $1.6B order from the US military, but its stock price suddenly crashed 3.3%, nearly halved! Is Musk the "Military Money Printing Machine" or the "Valuation Bubble King"?
7.29 U.S. Space Force Cuts Orders: SpaceX secures $1.6 billion (≈$1.6 billion) contract, aiming to launch 18 military satellites using Falcon 9 by the end of 2027. Combined with $≥7 billion in Pentagon orders this year (with another $6.5 billion satellite orders in May), it is a solid "non-official unit" for the U.S. military. But strangely—
SPCX closed at $112.55 (-3.32%) on the same day, a direct 50% drawdown from the June high of $225.64, with market value evaporating by about $1.18 trillion. Short positions exceeded $26 billion, with a book profit of $7 billion+, and in August, there was a barrier lake for employee stock unlocks worth hundreds of billions.
Bulls:
"What you bought isn't Rocket Company, it's the ticket to the American 'Golden Dome' missile defense system!" Falcon 9 reuses mature, ULA Vulcan has been used for nesting, and Blue Source has exploded with new Glen, so it's unbeatable in the short term. Military budget binding = national cash flow; 1.75 trillion yuan is valued high but the logic is not deflationary.
Bears:
"The story is too grand, and the financial reports can't hold up." In 2025, revenue will be 18.67 billion but net loss of 4.94 billion, with a negative PE and a PB ratio of 42 times. Starship's 13 Fei insulation tiles are still in a closed loop, and restrictions lifted + index fund acceptance doubts (the American Teachers' Union has even written to the SEC) is the real deal.
My view:
In the short term, the focus is on unrestricted selling pressure and Starship test flight pace; in the medium term, it depends on whether "military order monetization → cash flow" can absorb the AI + Starship cash burn. SpaceX is no longer a company, but a sovereign asset in space infrastructure—but this asset is most vulnerable to being dumped and then pulled during the late rate hike phase + political transition.📊 On-chain analyst perspective: $MMT Real-time market analysis
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📈 Support and resistance level assessment
$MMT (Momentum) is a CLMM DEX token based on Sui, launched in April via Binance HODLer airdrop. The current quote is 0.194, down 6.24% in 24 hours, but still up 38.26% over 7 days. Market capitalization is approximately $40.01 million, with a circulating supply of 204 million tokens.
Upside resistance: The first resistance is in the 0.1997-0.2026 area; the recent high of 0.2057 is a recovery observation level; after a breakout, the 0.2368-0.2394 area is targeted.
Support below: The first line of defense is at 0.1947—the long-short ratio among major players is 57:43, with pullbacks and support being key; Secondary support is at 0.174-0.1768; stronger support is at 0.1627-0.1685. If it falls, it could slide toward the June 6 historical low of 0.0999.
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🐋 Market maker movements on the chain
The long-short ratio of large players is clearly overly long at 57:43. Open interest is about $23.68 million, with $308,000 liquidated within 24 hours. Contract turnover was 103 million yuan, while spot trading was only 13.43 million yuan—contract-driven and relatively high leverage.
Trading volume surged on July 10, with 326,000 units traded in a single hour at 12:00 UTC, and the price rising from 0.177 to 0.1872. On July 11, trading volume soared to $59.4 million, but the price only fell by 1-2%—"massive volume stagnation" means bulls and bears are undergoing intense trading rather than a directional breakout.
The risk lies in the token structure: total supply of 1 billion tokens, currently only 204 million (20.4%) in circulation, with nearly 800 million remaining locked in circulation. On August 4, 12.53 million tokens (about $2.26 million) will be unlocked. Although it accounts for only 6% of the outstanding market, it is highly symbolic—the market is testing whether early investors are eager to cash out.
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✅ Positive factors
🔹 Top institutional endorsements: Coinbase Ventures, OKX Ventures, Binance Joint Investment.
🔹 Full coverage of leading exchanges: Listed on mainstream platforms such as Binance, OKX, Upbit.
🔹 Complete Sui ecosystem layout: products cover CLMM DEX, liquid staking, yield vaults, and launch platforms.
🔹 From the violent rebound of ATL: After hitting a historic low of 0.0999 on June 6, the highest rebound exceeded 90%. On July 10, increased volume broke through the 0.1907 resistance.
🔹 Propr partnership launched: Introduced native funding transaction feature, offering $5 million in funding challenge rewards in the first week.
---
❌ Bearish factors
🔻 80% supply unlocked: this is the biggest structural bearish. Out of 1 billion in supply, only 204 million are in circulation. The August 4th unlock is approaching, with even larger unlocks coming in October.
🔻 FDV and TVL are severely disconnected: FDV is about $188 million, TVL is only about $4.91 million—a ratio exceeding 38 times. The native DEX daily fee is only $40-240, with value capture basically zero.
🔻 It dropped 96% from its ATH: the ATH was about $4.03. After the initial peak, it continued to decline in gloom.
🔻 Liquidity depth is worrying: spot 24-hour turnover was only $13.43 million. In the Sui ecosystem DEX competition, it lags behind Cetus and Bluefin.
🔻 Sentiment is extremely pessimistic: At the beginning of July, market sentiment was 100% bearish. Although there was a rebound, the divergence between bulls and bears was huge.
---
🎯 Summary
MMT is a typical VC heavy position + high FDV + low circulation token. Top institutions and leading exchanges form narrative support, but 80% of unlocked supply is a Damocles sword hanging overhead. It is currently oscillating within the 0.174-0.2057 range. The unlock on August 4 is the most critical test in recent times—if the market can withstand selling pressure, the rebound trend is likely to continue; If whales concentrate their selling, it could test 0.1627 or even 0.0999 again. It is suitable for short-term traders with strong risk tolerance; mid-term allocation should be evaluated after the unlocking dust settles. $MMT #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, causing a sharp drop in stock prices and sparking controversy #英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt
$NIGHT
Today, three things are all coming together: the Ministry of Commerce just responded to the 'decoupling and supply chain break' rhetoric, the number of crypto venture capital institutions in July dropped straight to the lowest level in November 2020, and the central bank launched another large-scale reverse repo initiative. The market reaction was honest—BTC hovered around 60,000, ETH followed suit, NIGHT only rose 1.2%, and funds had no direction. But the venture capital data is the real blow.
Breaking it down: the number of venture capital institutions dropped from a peak of 1,177 in May 2022 to only 150 in July, a drop of 87%. This isn't emotional fluctuations; it's structural collapse—institutions are frantically shrinking risk exposure, especially small-cap and early-stage projects. The Ministry of Commerce's counterattack and the central bank's liquidity operations stabilized the bottom of macro sentiment, but the cliff-like drop in crypto financing shows that what capital truly fears is not interest rates, but policy uncertainty.
How should funds play now: prioritize maintaining BTC and ETH liquidity. ETH can still hold on through staking and ETF narratives, but high-risk assets like SOL and NIGHT will need to wait for risk appetite to clearly recover. NIGHT has been on an independent track recently but hasn't attracted new money, relying on mutual selling of existing stock, making it hard to sustain.
Next, let's look at two conditions: First, can BTC hold above 60,000 and rebound with high volume; otherwise, ETH and SOL will drag NIGHT into the market; Second, if September's venture capital data continues to decline, the rebound of small-cap coins will be a window for selling out. No volume on the rebound; short-term fluctuations should not be treated as trend reversals.
Risk warning: A worsening financing environment is a slow variable, but once BTC breaks out, elastic stocks like NIGHT will be the first to face pressure. Don't bet on short-term reversals based on cyclical judgments.If you can't read the flow of funds, prices are always just lagging indicators. Why do most investors only realize the crisis after a crash? The core of the original article is not the price drop itself, but the real risk of liquidity loss that occurs before that occurs. BTC, ETH, and SOL recover liquidity the fastest during market corrections, as they serve as the core liquidity reservoirs for the entire crypto ecosystem. When risk appetite decreases, funds converge on these three coins, and conversely, when risk appetite increases, funds spread from here into the altcoin ecosystem. - $HYPE, $WLD, $ENA, $ONDO, $INJ, $SEI, $TIA, $CORE, $PYTH, $TAO, $FET, $JUP, $EIGEN, $RENDER, $OKB, etc., are structures that require continuous mainstream liquidity inflow to defend prices. Without new funds, their prices gradually face downward pressure. - $SLX, $LAYER, $APR, $PIPPIN, $LIGHT, $COMP, #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy between two camps
Despite the launch of major orders, the market has reversed and weakened, forming a sharply opposing view in the market. This news should not be simply taken as positive news.
SpaceX secured a $1.6 billion defense order from the U.S. Space Force and will provide military satellite launches and Starshield communication services. The news briefly surged after release, then continued to fall, and market divergence erupted completely.
Core Logic of Bulls:
Long-term military orders provide stable cash flow, validating the commercial value of the Star Shield business. Defense cooperation establishes industry barriers and opens up long-term growth potential, which is a substantial fundamental benefit. The short-term decline is merely a misjudgment of sentiment, with potential valuation recovery opportunities ahead.
Bearish core concerns:
1. The positive news is priced in in early by the market, combined with the approaching unlocking window, and funds are cashing in on the news to cash in on profitable chips.
2. Defense orders have limited profit margins, with large amounts of supporting launches and satellite operations continuously consuming capital; The market still doubts the company's difficulty in quickly achieving stable profitability, and the pressure from high valuations has not been relieved.
3. Business is highly tied to the military, and future changes in geopolitical policies and procurement budgets will add long-term uncertainty.
My independent judgment: Orders solidify the revenue base and are a long-term fundamental plus, but not enough to immediately reverse the downward trend.
The core contradiction currently suppressing stock prices is not a lack of orders, but high valuations, ongoing capital expenditures, and the upcoming large-scale stock lock-up.
With the current market style shifting, funds are no longer paying for long-term stories. Whether positive news can drive the price upward depends on whether profits can be realized simultaneously; With only revenue growth and lagging profit improvement, it is difficult to trigger a sustained bull market.
Is everyone leaning toward bulls or bears? Can this large military order stabilize SpaceX's stock price?Robinhood's revenue hit a record high, but it fell after hours.
Let's look at the data first—it's quite divided.
Robinhood's Q2 total revenue was $1.31 billion, a record high, with an EPS of $0.62 far exceeding expectations.
However, crypto trading revenue was only 100 million, a year-on-year plunge of 38%.
Options, stocks, and prediction markets are all rising, but only the crypto engine has stalled.
So the 4% drop in after-hours trading is well deserved.
The market is repricing it.
In the past, people treated HOOD as a "crypto brokerage" for speculation, and when BTC rose, it would soar.
Now the logic has changed—investors are starting to calculate "crypto exposure."
Even if the overall beat expectation is high, as long as crypto revenue can't hold up, the premium will have to be discounted.
This is a signal for all crypto concept stocks, not just HOOD alone.
$BNB
Two product directions are worth seeing in person.
First, Robinhood Chain is already live, and tokenized US stocks can now be traded on-chain. RWA is not just empty talk.
The second is the Agentic Trading tool, which allows third-party AI to access accounts and place orders automatically.
If you are a trader, it is recommended to pay attention to how these tools change retail investor behavior, and to update risk control strategies in advance.
Organize a reusable method.
To judge whether a "crypto concept stock" can withstand tough pressures, it's about whether its non-crypto business can fill the gap when crypto recedes.
If you can fill it, diversity is real; If you can't, you're swimming naked.
The above does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, and decisions should be made independently.
Disclaimer: This is for information compilation and logical review only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; please conduct your own research.Introduction: Debunking the V-shaped Reversal Myth, Rejecting Cyclical Cycles In traditional financial markets such as US stocks and forex, investors have long been accustomed to V-shaped reversal narratives. Whenever a liquidity crisis erupts, the central bank acts as the "lender of last resort," quickly injecting funds into the market through rate cuts, QE, or even direct asset purchases. After panic crashes, policy support drives rapid price increases, completing a V-shaped recovery. However, reviewing Bitcoin's complete bull-bear cycles over more than ten years, especially the full bear markets of 2018-2019 and 2022-2023, reveals a recurring objective phenomenon: the true bottom of Bitcoin bear markets rarely shows sharp V-shaped reversals. Often, after the final wave of panic sell-offs, the market enters a 2-3 month phase of low volatility and low turnover, with a silent flat bottom and sideways movement. Even during early pullbacks and shakeouts in the early stages of a bull market, the bottom pattern is still mainly narrow sideways rather than a quick bottoming test followed by a pullback. Similarly, when assets plunged, U.S. stocks could rely on policy to complete a V-rebound, but Bitcoin's bottoming out inevitably involved a "flat bottom." This is not a simple coincidence of candlestick patterns, but an inevitable result of market systems, chip circulation, derivative competition, and group psychology. This article will thoroughly break down the underlying logic of flat bottoming and building from five dimensions: differences in rescue mechanisms, on-chain chip transfers, microstructure of derivatives, trader psychology, and historical cycle reviews, along with practical practical references. 1. Underlying institutional differences: Without a "lender of last resort," only time can be used to clear out chips. The foundation of the U.S. stock market's V-shaped reversal comes from the central bank's bottom-line mechanism. When the market is caught in a liquidity crunch, the Federal Reserve can📊 South Korea: 51M People, 108M Stock Accounts
This isn’t investing anymore. It’s national leverage.
What’s happening:
- 108.7M trading accounts as of June 2026. ∼2 accounts per person
- Retail = 60-68% of daily volume. Double the US
- Margin loans hit 36.47T won ∼$26.9B in May, double vs last year. Brokerages hit lending caps.
- Samsung + SK Hynix = 50%+ of KOSPI. They rallied 566% and 825% in a year.
- 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs launched in May and pulled $2B in 2 days. Regulators warned of 60% swings.
Why: Housing is unaffordable. Policy pushed money from real estate to equities. Young people, office workers, even minors +119% growth are all in.
The Finance Minister is now warning about “herd behavior” and excessive leverage.
Leverage won’t change your fate.
It just makes the fall come faster. 🧠
#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #SpaceX1.6BDeal
Not financial adviceDay 17 of breakeven | Current account: 110U
1. Today's Trading Practice Review
1. Bottom-fishing at $HIMS HIMS at midnight, entry point at 25.12, take profit at 26.20, profit 75%.
2. Around 12:30 noon, continuously observed $SNDK SanDisk for two hours, confirming the price could not break below the 1010 support range, and entered the 1016 level for short-term trading. After the market moves upward, strong resistance at 1040 is detected, so the stop-loss is raised to 1030 and the take-profit is set at 1040; Predicting significant short-term risk, choose to exit near 60% unrealized profit.
2. Summary:
Reviewing recent trading profits and losses, many traders tend to fall into a game-playing mindset. When holding floating losses, subjectively thinking it is just a short-term pullback and choosing to hold positions head-on; Once a one-sided market occurs, the result is often a significant loss or even liquidation. Conversely, during the floating profit stage, if weak buying is observed, you should proactively raise your stop-loss limit. When the market pulls back, as long as there is no rapid insertion of needles to break through and stop loss, some unrealized gains can be preserved, allowing gains to be locked in.If MU can reach around 500, which is around the 200-day moving average, I'll take a long position.
After this round of US stock adjustments, there will be no V-reversal; at the very least, it will adjust to the Q3 earnings report period.
So there's no rush to bottom-fish—just a few months to prepare.
The Fed's dovish stance can only ease panic in the short term; in the medium to long term, it depends on whether the growth in earnings data is slow or fast.
Q3 is the best node; if it continues to perform better than expected, Q4 will likely bottom and rise upward.
Brothers trading US stocks, just keep waiting