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Data as of: US stocks close on July 30; Amazon and Apple after-hours earnings; Crypto assets as of noon Beijing time on July 31. ——— Last night, the US stock market completed an important valuation screening: the market did not dismiss the entire tech sector because of the massive AI capital expenditure, but began to distinguish between companies that can convert computing power investment into cloud revenue, orders, and cash flow, and those that can only rely on continued capital expansion to maintain growth expectations. - Microsoft became the representative of the former, with its stock price rising more than 15% in a single day; Meta has become the latter's temporary representative, with revenue up 28%, but operating profit declining and free cash flow nearly exhausted, causing its stock price to drop about 8%. Amazon continued this contradiction after hours: AWS grew strongly, but the company's free cash flow over the past 12 months has turned negative. - The macro level is also not a single positive factor. U.S. Q2 GDP Growth Rate Fell to 1.5%, But Private Domestic Final Demand Grew 3.9%; The quarterly PCE price index rose 5.1% on an annualized basis, with core PCE up 3.4%. The economy has not stalled, but inflation is still insufficient to support rapid rate cuts. - For SPCX, last night's surge in tech stocks did not lead to a simultaneous recovery. The stock closed at $112.20, briefly rising to $118.71 during trading before retreating, indicating the market is still waiting for the first earnings report on August 4, rather than directly projecting the AI rally from major tech companies onto SpaceX. ⸻ 1. Market Overview US Stock Market | AI ReboundsThe short squeeze was very violent, what happened? Many friends were still firmly believing yesterday that the AI bubble was coming, liquidated their positions and quit, even shorted. The AI main theme cannot be explained by any rise or fall or candlestick chart; I see it very clearly on the front lines in Silicon Valley.
I never fear that buying is not at the absolute bottom, nor do I expect the price to rise the next day after buying. I understand it, so I have a clear mind.
Today, individual stocks surged violently: $MRVL +12%, $NBIS +30%, $LRCX +19%. The AI main theme behind this is too clear; this cannot be explained by any candlestick or single-day price movement.
In this post, I will explain the changes I observed over the past two days and my investment approach. Words alone are not enough, so I provide screenshots.
1/ What exactly happened from last night to this morning?
$MSFT answered the market's recent biggest concern: can AI capital expenditure really be monetized?
Management officially proved that AI capital expenditure has not become a money-burning black hole without generating revenue. After adding computing power, it can soon be used, billed, and monetized.
This is a sector-wide read-through for AI cloud infrastructure assets like MRVL, COHR, network equipment, optical interconnect, servers, memory, wafer equipment, and even ORCL.
Lam Research gave an even more direct signal for the semiconductor industry than Microsoft.
Microsoft proved:
> There is indeed demand and monetization potential for AI computing power on the hyperscaler side.
Lam proved:
> Equipment orders and expansion demand from upstream wafer fabs have not weakened as quickly as recent stock prices suggest. I have already shared the specific logic and layout with everyone for two days.
Meta was punished itself but instead reinforced the logic that "suppliers still have orders."
You might ask: why is the sentiment reversal so direct?
Yes, don't overcomplicate Wall Street; it is greedy and short-sighted. The best way for retail investors to beat institutions is to understand the industry and be patient, which is exactly what my account provides you.
2/ Why did semiconductors and AI rise together?
Fundamentals lit the match, and extreme positions plus previous continuous declines poured gasoline on the fire.
So what likely happened today:
Microsoft and Lam provided real fundamental positive news;
Semiconductor shorts, hedges, and underweight positions began to cover;
ETFs, quant momentum, and AI infrastructure baskets bought simultaneously;
High beta and previously heavily declined names were amplified;
3/ My investment approach
I only invest in things I understand. AI semiconductors is a direction I believe I understand better than most.
Actually, there was no new news today; all the news is just evidence supporting the investment theme I have been sharing with everyone. Because of these news, most people in the market only now realize a fact that has always existed, nothing else.
Microsoft proved AI computing power can be quickly monetized;
Lam proved semiconductor equipment orders are much stronger than the market's recent pessimistic pricing;
Meta and Samsung proved AI capital expenditure and years of chip procurement are still ongoing;
4/ My questions, and I want to ask everyone
I promised that when I reach 20,000 followers, I will disclose all my holdings and proportions. My account mainly focuses on fundamentals and frontline Silicon Valley industry analysis.
For example, yesterday's LRCX analysis was almost a buy call; the reason I didn't make a call is because it is not my account's principle.
I promised a Dashboard, which we are urgently preparing now, to share my expertise and key signals in a centralized way so you can check it once a day and have a clear mind.
For example, today's rise, can all you candlestick experts guide me? Can today's surge really be explained? If the AI main theme is so certain, is it better to buy and hold or to trade back and forth using technical indicators? I sincerely ask technical indicator bloggers to help explain.
Recently, the team also wants to recruit a technical analysis expert to help us analyze comprehensively by combining technical indicators with fundamentals.South Korea's index surged 15% in one day—is this a reversal or a dead cat jump?
Today's market is indeed rare.
KOSPI hit the circuit breaker directly, with SK Hynix and Samsung both rising over 20%, and Nikkei also rising more than 5%.
First, let's talk about the reasons for the rebound—there are three main reasons:
First, Microsoft—Amazon's earnings report exploded, and the cloud business still needs AI validation, giving global tech stocks a lifeline.
Second, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won bought his own shares for the first time in history. Although he only bought 3,620 shares, the symbolic significance was significant—"even the big bosses felt it was undervalued."
Third, AI hedge fund Situational Awareness was forced to liquidate, forcing sellers to clear the market, which instead triggered "relief buying."
But can this rebound last? Stay calm.
Here are a few objective facts: JPMorgan judges that deleveraging for leveraged ETFs has been completed, hedge funds are about 90% deleveraged, and concentrated selling pressure from foreign capital is also easing.
But HSBC denies this, saying retail investor financing balances are $22 billion, only down 15%, and that ETF shrinkage is more due to losses rather than voluntary withdrawals.
How to look at it and what to do:
A short-term major rebound—don't rush to confirm a reversal. Of today's 15%, short covering and position recovery account for the majority, not real confirmation of new trends with real money.
Focus on three things: whether foreign capital can shift from short-term bottom-fishing to sustained net buying; Whether the financing balance and the scale of leveraged products can be stabilized; Will future cloud vendors' earnings reports continue to prove that AI is delivering results?On July 1, Leopold's Situational Awareness fund reportedly reached $45 billion, with a yearly return of about 450% and up to 4x leverage. From July 10 to 20, AI-related stocks began to plunge collectively, with many stocks dropping more than 30% within two weeks. Leopold's long positions include SK Hynix, SNDK, BE, Nebius, and others, with these stocks falling much more than the broader market. What's more troublesome is that he is simultaneously short software stocks like Adobe. While AI hardware stocks crashed, some software stocks began to rebound, and funds may be experiencing a typical lose-lose situation. On July 24, Leopold sent a letter to investors, acknowledging the fund's massive losses but still calling this crash the best AI buying opportunity since early 2025. From July 28 to 29, the fund began emergency financing from investors and lending institutions, but was subsequently recalled by banks for their margins. On July 30, the fund was forced to sell all its public market stock positions, with Citadel taking over most of them. Capital never sleeps!On the night of the decision, I watched the market until dawn.
The Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive time holding rates unchanged.
But the voting results exploded.
9 votes in favor, 3 against, with three regional reserve presidents advocating a 25 basis point rate hike.
This is the highest number of opposing votes since 2016.
The market instantly changed its expression.
The Dow plunged 1,153 points, or 2.19%, closing at 51,594.
The Nasdaq fell 1.74%, and the S&P dropped 1.52%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5.33%.
Nearly 4,000 stocks across the entire market declined.
At that time, I was long on tech stocks, and the floating losses instantly widened.
At the press conference, Wash said something that I still remember today.
"I wouldn't call this operation a pause."
He refused to reassure the market, instead calling the rise in market interest rates "evidence that financial conditions have tightened."
The market understood.
The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries surged to 5.2%, the highest since 2007.
The long end is pricing in higher inflation expectations.
This is not a dovish pause; it is a tightening without rate hikes.
But the next day, the script completely reversed.
Microsoft's earnings report exploded, with the Nasdaq soaring 680 points, up 2.78%, closing at 25,122.
The Dow rose 1.19%, and the S&P gained 1.66%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 8.19%.
Storage chips surged collectively, with SanDisk up 26% and Micron up 18%.
Microsoft rose 15.51% in a single day, marking its largest gain in 18 years.
Two days of trending, a world of ice and fire.
On Wednesday, the Fed's "hawks" declined, while on Thursday, Microsoft's "earnings" rose.
I didn't chase on Thursday and reduced some of my position.
At this point, policy uncertainty remains, and the shadow of a rate hike in September has not faded.
Performance can change the day's trend, but it cannot change the direction of interest rates.
$SNDK
Will you chase after the results, or wait for the policy to become clearer before making a move? #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks Honestly, I think $BTC has actually spent a long time masquerading as a "tech stock"
but has almost completely decoupled since 10/10.
Some of the world's largest companies have experienced sharp fluctuations of 10%, 20%, 30%, while $BTC barely moves.
The last time $BTC decoupled from the stock market to this extent, it rose from 60,000 to 100,000 within two months, with liquidity expanding without $BTC, similar to the situation in 2024? I think it's more like 2020 On July 14, 16.23 million LAB tokens were unlocked. A month ago, when it was 27 yuan, that amount was worth over 400 million, but on July 14th, it was only worth a little over 4 million. It's not that the number of unlocks has decreased, but that the price has dropped by 99%.
From August 14 to December 14, there are still 16.23 million coins to be released each month. The total number of investors is 192 million, with 94.6 million tokens unlocked so far. They are released every month, and fewer and fewer people in the market are willing to take them.
ZachXBT publicly stated in May that insiders controlled over 95% of the circulating supply. At the time, many thought he was too extreme, but looking back now, every word he said is verified. The project team's response was four words—"large market participant," without explanation or denial. For something whose actual circulation volume can't be clearly stated, how much do you think it's worth? No one knows. $LAB 。。。。 Some people also ask if 0.13 is a good way to bottom-fish.
My answer is simple—the supply structure is still being released, over 70% of the status is unknown, and core related entities still hold 81.5 million inventory.
Under this structure, bottom-fishing is a gamble that project teams will stop selling and that someone will take over after unlocking.
The August 14th unlock hasn't arrived yet, and new supplies will be released every month afterward. If you buy in 0.13, after unlocking on August 14, the price will keep falling and you won't even know where to put your stop-loss. This kind of market is not something you can understand just by looking at candlesticks; you need to see how much stock hasn't come out, when it will emerge, and whether there are still buying stocks in the market. For something where you can't even clearly state the actual circulating supply, discussing whether 0.13 is the bottom is pointless now.
$LAB 🚨 How fast $45B can vanish.
On July 1, Leopold’s “Situational Awareness” fund was sitting at $4.5B with ∼450% YTD gains, running up to 4x leverage.
Then July 10–20 hit. AI stocks rolled over. A lot of them dropped 30%+ in two weeks.
His longs — SK Hynix, $SNDK, BE, Nebius — got hit harder than the market. And he was short software like Adobe.
Wrong side both ways: AI hardware crashed, software bounced. Classic long/short double loss.
July 24: Leopold told investors the fund took a massive hit, but called it the best AI buying opportunity since early 2025.
July 28–29: frantic fundraising from backers and lenders, then margin calls from banks.
July 30: forced liquidation of all public equity. Citadel took most of it.
Leverage giveth, leverage taketh.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit
#SoftPCEStrongDemand
#AMZNMissesButRallies 2026.07.31 Midday Crypto News Flash #PCE turns negative month-on-month, GDP growth slows to 1.5%
@币圈超短王马大帅
1. Mainstream Market (UTC+8 Midday)
• BTC: Around 64,850U, 24-hour gain +1.5%, three consecutive days of gains; Short-term resistance is 65,200-66,000 USD, with support at 63,800 USD
• ETH: Around 1923U, 24h increase +1.1%; Resistance is at 1960U, support is at 1880U
• SOL：74.6U（+1.5%），XRP：1.08U（+1.1%）
• Total crypto market cap across the network is 2.30 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of 58.8 billion; Fear and Greed Index is 28, maintaining the fear range
2. Macro Core [Fed Focus]
1. The July policy decision kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with a vote of 9:3. Three members advocated a 25bp hike, marking the rare disagreement since 2016 and a hawkish signal.
2. Official Wash's statement that the 2% inflation target will not be relaxed, dispelling long-term easing market illusions; The market repriced in the probability of a September rate hike slightly increased.
3. The US June PCE price index fell month-on-month, easing short-term inflation anxiety; U.S. Treasury yields edged down, indirectly benefiting risk assets.
3. Capital & ETF Updates
1. Capital outflows from US BTC spot ETFs have narrowed significantly; ETH spot ETFs have maintained net capital inflows for several consecutive days, indicating strong medium-term sentiment among institutions.
2. On-chain whale movement: A BTC transaction worth about $80.94 million was issued from the exchange, signaling accumulation; At the same time, loss-making players are selling chips, widening the divergence between bulls and bears.
3. 24-hour contract liquidation across the network: short positions are liquidated larger than long positions, short-term short positions are being cleared out, and be alert to potential pressure after a rebound.
4. Industry Hotspots
1. The L2 sector and XRP ecosystem coins led the market for 24 hours, with continued small- and mid-cap rotations, and mainstream Bitcoin gains were weaker than altcoins.
2. Offshore regulation remains on the sidelines, with many countries continuing to discuss compliance frameworks for digital assets, with no major new regulations yet implemented.
3. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain tense, with oil prices fluctuating, continuously indirectly affecting global risk appetite.
5. Key Market Summary
In the short term, the market relies on falling US Treasury yields and short covering to recover; Hawkish divisions within the Fed remain the biggest hidden danger. The rebound is a recovery trend and cannot be considered a reversal for now. Key trading focus: Can BTC hold above the 66,000 level? If pressure persists, there is still demand for pullback. $SNDK Yesterday it rose from 1000 to 1430, up 43% in one day, now near 1364.
But this time is different from before.
Open interest shrank by 9% in 7 hours, whale accounts dropped by 18%, and positions also dropped by 5%. Prices remain high, but large funds are reducing positions—this indicates that some people are taking advantage of this rally to cut losses, not new money piling upward.
Active buying is still holding, accounting for 58%, so the market hasn't crashed. But the funding rate is -0.08%, so the cost of going long is decreasing, and the enthusiasm for chasing long is fading.
The depth of buy orders is nearly twice that of sell orders, indicating short-term support.
Overall: The trend remains, but momentum is weakening.
The previous surge in holdings with a 33% surge in price is different in value from the current 9% reduction in holdings. I won't chase much at this position. Wait until you step back to see if you can catch the 1100-1200 level, then decide on a much more comfortable direction.The ETF data for July was released today.
The ErBing spot ETF attracted $343 million in July, the best performer among all crypto ETFs in July.
Bitcoin ETFs only saw 205 million yuan in July, marking the worst monthly performance since their launch in 2024.
The Bitcoin ETF just ended two consecutive months of large outflows—2.43 billion yuan in May, 4.52 billion yuan in June, and finally turned positive in July. But compared to the scale of previous outflows, the 205 million yuan is indeed not on the same scale.
Ethereum ETFs have maintained net inflows for three consecutive weeks, attracting over $100 million each week. For the week ending July 28, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 37,959 ETH, equivalent to $71.17 million. During the same period, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,170 BTC, equivalent to about $200 million. Funds are indeed moving from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and this trend has been ongoing for three weeks.
On July 31, Morgan Stanley's Ethereum ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $14.29 million. Institutional funds are slowly flowing in, the direction is shifting, but there hasn't yet been a sustained pulse inflow. Er Bing rose about 10% in July, but ETF inflows actually hit a historic low. This surge wasn't driven by ETF buying; some people are buying, but those who bought didn't come in through ETFs. It's still unclear where this new capital comes from, but at least it shows someone outside the exchange is taking over.
$BTC $ETH ErBing's 1,825 is the real defensive line—Coinglass data shows that if it falls below 1,825, the cumulative long liquidation strength of mainstream CEXs will reach $1.016 billion.
Conversely, if it breaks through 2,013, the strength of short liquidations will reach $750 million. The bulls put in 1 billion, the bears put in 750 million. The liquidation risk for bulls is greater than for bears. If the breakout in the same direction occurs, bulls will face nearly 300 million more liquidation pressure than bears.
In the past 24 hours, a large net inflow on-chain (excluding project and market maker impact) was about 15,705 ETH, equivalent to $51.43 million. Money is moving from exchanges to on-chain, and some are hoarding.
The whale on Hyperliquid's side is also quite interesting. The total holdings of platform whales are 4.729 billion, with long positions at 2.32 billion (49%) and short positions at 2.409 billion (50.94%). The longs and bears are almost evenly split, but the profit and loss are completely asymmetrical—the overall floating loss for long positions is 95.41 million yuan, while the floating profit for short positions is 26.27 million yuan. The overall market is bearish, and those who go long are generally losing money. One address went all short at 5x the price of 1,869, currently with a floating loss of 2.3 million. Bears are not completely safe; if oil prices or CPI exceed expectations, the dollar weakens, and the second cake could surge upward. $BTC $ETH Macro Market Review: Under multiple news outreaches, risk assets are experiencing a short-term rebound
Recently, global markets have experienced intense volatility. With inflation data, Federal Reserve statements, tech earnings reports, and geopolitical tensions intertwined, the pricing logic of major assets continues to reconstruct.
1. Market Overview
US Q2 core PCE inflation data unexpectedly cooled, and combined with Microsoft's better-than-expected earnings report, ignited the tech sector, US stocks experienced a violent rebound. The S&P 500 rose 1.66%, the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.4%; The storage sector rebounded strongly, with SanDisk surging nearly 26% and SK Hynix rebounding 17.52%. The recovery in risk sentiment has driven the crypto market up in tandem, with Bitcoin returning to the $65,000 range.
Looking back at the key timeline for the week, market sentiment has shifted repeatedly:
On July 27, the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan decision week began, causing risk assets to pull back early;
On July 28, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, sending hawkish signals, putting pressure on tech stocks;
On July 29, Trump's tough stance on Iran pushed crude oil prices up by 7% in the short term;
On July 30, on the eve of the Bank of Japan's decision, the yen surged, and Washe weakened the Fed's forward-looking guidance;
On July 31, the dual positive news of inflation data and Microsoft's earnings spurred a sharp rebound in US stocks, while rumors of a Tesla merger with SpaceX surfaced.
2. Core Macro Logic: Changes in the Federal Reserve's Policy Framework
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in July, but Chairman Wash sent a key signal by reducing active market intervention and allowing free pricing of U.S. Treasuries and exchange rates. The market's focus has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to whether the Federal Reserve can continue to curb inflation.
Policy stance is rather ambiguous, causing funds to lean toward cash and short-duration assets, which previously suppressed high-valuation tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. It wasn't until this core PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, below the expected 3.9%, that the market lowered the probability of a rate hike in September, giving risk assets a breathing room.
Currently, the market is in a contradictory environment of "hawkish expectations + dovish data," and high market volatility may become the norm.
3. Tech Financial Reports Watershed: AI Shifts from Storytelling to Profitability Verification
This earnings season shows clear divergence:
Microsoft's AI cloud business grew 42% year-on-year, far exceeding expectations, with its stock price soaring 15% in a single day, confirming that AI infrastructure has real returns; Although Apple's revenue met its target, the market was concerned about iPhone sales and AI expansion, leading to a 4% drop in after-hours trading.
Market valuation logic is shifting: pure AI narratives no longer work, and capital is now being evaluated for capital expenditure efficiency. The market is becoming more vigilant about the accumulating leverage risks behind large-scale AI investments. The recent correction in semiconductors in Japan and South Korea is a reflection of funds re-examining returns.
4. Geopolitical disturbances continue to influence the energy market
The repeated tug-of-war between the US and Iran has become the biggest variable for oil prices. When hawkish statements sparked conflict concerns, WTI crude surged above $83; After diplomatic negotiations began, oil prices fell back to around $80.
OPEC+ stated that short-term output will remain stable, but there is a lack of buffer space on the supply side. If tensions rise again in the Middle East, oil prices are likely to surge rapidly, further driving up global inflation expectations. Existing funds are betting on future US-Iran conflict risks, and volatility risks in the energy market continue to rise.
5. Current Status of the Crypto Market
Crypto assets are under dual pressure from macro liquidity and regulation. The high US dollar interest rate environment continues to divert funds; The outlook for the U.S. CLARITY Act vote remains unclear, and regulatory uncertainty continues to suppress sentiment.
On the market front, Bitcoin has been continuously consolidating in the $62,000-66,000 range, with chip concentration steadily rising, and the market preparing for a directional breakout. Additionally, abnormal trading in the Hyperliquid contract triggered massive liquidations, exposing the potential risks in the derivatives market under extreme market conditions.
6. Four major risks that require ongoing attention
1. Monetary Policy Risk: If inflation rebounds again, the Fed's renewed rate hikes will further tighten liquidity and suppress growth assets.
2. Geopolitical Risks: The escalation of the US-Iran conflict could drive oil prices sharply higher, refueling inflation.
3. AI Profit Risk: If future tech companies' earnings reports fail to deliver AI gains, the valuation of the tech sector may face a correction.
4. Market liquidity risk: Global markets continue to deleverage, and extreme market conditions can further amplify volatility.
Looking ahead, focus should be on August inflation data, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and subsequent earnings reports from tech companies. Inflation trends will determine the Fed's policy direction and directly affect the overall direction of the stock and crypto markets. Operations should be approached cautiously, mainly following macro signals.
⚠️ The content is for information compilation and study only and does not constitute any investment advice
$SNDK $BTC On July 31, Open USD officially launched, deploying on the Ethereum mainnet from its initial launch.
Behind this thing stands over 140 institutions—Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, all on the list.
Unlike USDT and USDC, Open USD does not follow a single issuer model but is a stablecoin network jointly owned and operated by more than 140 companies. Participating companies can mint and redeem tokens for free, with no upper limit, and reserve earnings distributed among all partners.
What does this mean for Ethereum? If Open USD really gets on the ground, the Ethereum mainnet will become the settlement layer for the world's largest enterprise alliance stablecoin. Payment and settlement flows from over 140 institutions will run directly on Ethereum. This delivers more real network usage than any DeFi protocol.
But this isn't something that can be implemented in a day or two. The stablecoin sector is highly competitive, with USDT and USDC together accounting for over 95% of the market share. Open USD has 140 institutional endorsements, but there is still a long way to go between institutional endorsement and genuine user adoption. The short-term impact on price is limited, but in the long run, it signals Ethereum's shift from being a "crypto asset settlement layer" to a "global payment infrastructure."
$ETH SKHX's surge but now experiencing "deleveraging"? 27% of funds fleeing to switch positions in Micron and SanDisk
On July 31, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, SKHX rebounded to $1,165.5 today, a 24-hour increase of about 24.4%, with a turnover of $1.514 billion. However, from 11 p.m. last night to 11 a.m., the value of its open interest dropped from $622 million to $451 million, a decrease of about $172 million, a decline of 27.6%; Hynix has once again experienced clear deleveraging.
Data on position changes over the past 24 hours shows that, based on a single address reducing positions exceeding $1 million, a total of 40 SKHX long holders reduced positions, reducing positions at current prices totaling about $172 million. Among them, 29 addresses have already closed out all their original long positions, and some addresses have since reversed to short positions.
During the same period, only 17 addresses worth millions of USD added long positions, totaling an increase of about $55.354 million, with a net decrease of about $116 million within the sample. Bears are also exiting en masse. In the past 24 hours, 40 million-dollar short addresses collectively recovered about $148 million.
The largest reduction came from the previous SKHX largest long 0xc8b. This address sold all 37,229.1 shares of SKHX this morning, which converts to about $43.391 million at current prices. The average closing price was about $1,135.2, resulting in a profit of about $5.717 million. The SKHX position has now been reduced to zero.
The remaining large exits include: 0x2dac Liquidation of approximately 14,667 long positions, equivalent to approximately $17.094 million at current prices; 0x469e 14,332.6 units were liquidated, with a turnover of approximately USD 15.027 million; 0x4662 Cleared 6,000 lots, with a turnover of approximately $6.084 million; 0x215b Also closed out all existing long positions.
As the bulls uncovered and took profits, short covering occurred, funds did not withdraw from the storage sector, but partially diverted to MU, SNDK, and SKHY.
Among the million-dollar address samples, MU, SNDK, and SKHY recorded approximately $44.829 million, $63.18 million, and $44.79 million in new long positions, respectively. After deducting the reduction in positions during the same period, SNDK saw a net increase of about $10.501 million, and SKHY saw a net increase of about $26.357 million; MU still saw a net increase of about $29.006 million, with net inflows concentrated in SanDisk and SK Hynix ADRs.
From last night to early morning, the value of open interest in MU, SNDK, and SKHY increased by about 12.7%, 9.4%, and 12.9% respectively, in contrast to SKHX's significant shrinkage in holdings. Among them, SKHY rose 25.9% over the same period, slightly outperforming SKHX, with its ADR premium over SKHX further widening to about 35.0%.
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, the largest single-day gain in history. #美光暴跌后: Is it the bottom or halfway up the mountain? $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU Bitcoin fluctuated around 64,700 today, reaching an intraday high above 65,000, but failed to hold steady.
Last night, the lowest was over 63,200, then slowly bounced back. Within a single day, it fluctuated up and down nearly 2,000 dollars, finally closing near 64,800, up about 1.5% intraday.
This rebound is related to PCE data. June PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, and core PCE was 3.3%, both in line with expectations. This is the first monthly decline in PCE in six years, and the market has temporarily breathed a sigh of relief. The US dollar weakened, gold climbed back above 4100, and Bitcoin also bounced a bit. But the data isn't good enough to excite the market; 3.7% inflation is still far from the Fed's 2% target. So after it bounced up, no one chased it, and the 65,000 was just touched and it came down.
I've stood at 65,000 four times, and each time I've been knocked back. There are many short positions hanging between 65,500 and 66,000; without a breakout with increased volume, it's hard to clear it all at once. Below 63,000 is the first line of defense; once breached, you'll have to see 60,000-61,000. Liquidity is naturally thin over the weekend, so don't overload your position before the direction is decided. $BTC After last night's FOMC meeting, the market was actually quite interesting.
Nominally, there was no rate hike, with 9 votes in favor of keeping rates unchanged, and 3 votes against raising rates.
Hamack of the Cleveland Fed, Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Logan of Dallas all voted against it—the first time since 2016 that three votes were unanimous.
Powell didn't budge at the press conference, repeating his statement that "inflation is still too high," and that the 2% target is non-negotiable. The probability of a rate hike in September has already been pushed to over 80%.
When the news broke, the stock price surged upward, reaching around 64,700, then was bought back. A classic case of "buying expectations and selling facts"—the news is released and a wave is triggered, but those who chase after it are smashed down before they even warm up. Iran hasn't stopped either, firing ballistic missiles at the U.S. military. Oil prices pushed up again, but the big bin actually held up at 64,000 and didn't crash. There is capital supporting this position, but those holding it have no intention of pushing it upward; they just won't let the drop fall too deep.
Right now, the market fears the market most if August CPI exceeds expectations again—then a rate hike in September won't be a matter of probability anymore, it's a sure thing. The longer Da Bing holds this position, the more generously the chips are traded, which actually benefits the rest of the game.
$BTC #新手必看: Everything you need is here I've been watching SanDisk$SNDK's bullish candle all day today.
It closed at $1,279.96, surging 25.99% in a single day. Micron rose 18%, Western Digital 15%, SK Hynix 17%. The entire sector is moving, but SanDisk is the fiercest.
I already had a clear idea when I saw Microsoft's earnings report before the market opened. Azure revenue increased 43%, capital expenditure increased 70%, and free cash flow expectations turned positive. Previously, the market was most worried about AI burning cash and dragging down cash flow, but this statement immediately dispelled those concerns.
But I didn't expect SanDisk to play so hard. Looking back, it makes sense.
It had fallen the hardest before. From $1,915 on July 10 to $1,015 on July 29, a 47% drop in less than three weeks. I also had long positions on SanDisk at the time, and I stuck through it all the way, with the biggest unrealized loss approaching 40%. After extreme overselling, the bounce is naturally the fiercest.
But don't let this bullish candlestick cloud your judgment. SanDisk's July stock price has still fallen 45%, down 46% from its all-time high of $2,354. I reduced some positions today—not because I'm pessimistic, but because the trapped positions are too heavy at the top. A single bullish candlestick cannot change the trend; it can only alter sentiment.
At this level, do you feel the bottom is confirmed, or do you think this is just a violent rebound amid a sharp decline? I personally lean toward the latter, so I'll look at the backlash first. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks Strategy released its Q2 earnings report last night, and the numbers are a bit alarming.
Net loss of $8.22 billion, mainly due to falling Bitcoin prices and book losses from positions valued at market value. As of July 26, the company held 843,775 BTC, accounting for nearly 4% of the total supply on the entire network. The average cost of holding is $75,476. Holdings grew 11% in the first quarter, achieving a 4.5% BTC yield year-to-date and a gain of about 29,997 BTC.
But there's a signal more worth watching than the losses themselves—they haven't bought Bitcoin for over five weeks. The previous "always buy, buy, buy" model has stopped. Instead, cash reserves increased by $525 million, spending $25 million to repurchase discounted preferred shares. mNAV has long since fallen below 1, and the cycle of buying coins through premium financing has ended. The shift from "always buying" to "stopping and waiting and watching" is more worth thinking about than the loss figures themselves. The biggest bulls are resting, losing a clear buyer, so the market has to find its own direction. $BTC On July 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $32.11 million, ending a four-day streak of net outflows.
Over the past four days, about $526 million was outflowed.
The scale of inflow was not large, but the direction had changed, at least indicating that someone had started to cautiously return.
Throughout July, Bitcoin ETFs only saw about $205 million to $220 million in — the worst month since these products launched in January 2024. But compared to the 2.43 billion yuan outflow in May and the 4.52 billion yuan outflow in June, the direction is indeed shifting. Bitcoin's price rose about 10% in July, but ETF inflows actually hit a historic low—indicating that this rally was not driven by ETF buying. Some people buy, but the buyers didn't come in through ETFs.
The short-term direction remains unclear. Tomorrow is the monthly moving average. If the 64,000-65,000 level can be held at the close, at least there will be some hope for the start of August. If it closes below 63,500, it may continue to hold on next week. Before the direction is set, don't overweight your positions; wait for next week's CPI data to show direction.
$BTC 🚨 Long Liquidation Alert | $ATOM
🔴 $ATOM recorded a $9.61K long liquidation at $1.25, forcing leveraged bullish positions to close as price moved lower.
The liquidation event added short-term selling pressure and highlights the importance of monitoring key support levels during periods of increased volatility.
📊 The next move depends on whether buyers step in to defend this zone. A strong rebound could stabilize momentum, while continued liquidations may increase the risk of further downside.
⚠️ Stay patient, manage your risk, and watch price action closely before making trading decisions.
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
I am Cige. Amazon delivered an earnings report that silenced the market. Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year. AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37%, marking the fastest growth since the end of 2021. Operating profit was $16.6 billion, with a profit margin of 39.4%. Full-year capital expenditure was raised to $220 billion. Q3 revenue guidance is $197 billion to $202 billion, below market expectations. According to Meta's script, this should have caused a drop, but after-hours trading saw a surge of over 9%. The market is telling you with real money that as long as cloud growth continues to accelerate, burning cash can be accounted for and won't be punished.
Microsoft's realization, Meta's promises, and Amazon's simultaneous spending and earning—three AI stories with three different valuations. Microsoft's Azure growth of 43% earned an 8.5% increase, Meta's free cash flow hit a four-year low and dropped 7%, while Amazon's AWS growth of 37% plus $220 billion in capital expenditure led to a 9% rise. The market is telling you the difference lies in the return cycle. Amazon's cloud business is already generating continuous cash flow with a 39.4% profit margin; capital expenditure is reinvestment, not burning money. Meta's AI commercialization path is still unclear, so the market demands it spend less.
The impact on BTC is twofold. In the short term, Amazon's earnings beating expectations alleviates AI investment anxiety, tech stock sentiment recovers, and BTC benefits in sync. Amazon's $220 billion capital expenditure continues to point to AI infrastructure expansion; the fundamentals of storage and semiconductor demand remain intact. The short squeeze rebound of SanDisk and SK Hynix fits this logic. In the medium term, accelerated AI cloud business means computing power demand is continuously exploding; the long-term rigid demand for HBM, NAND, and data centers is being repeatedly validated. BTC's underlying narrative of computing power economics will only get stronger, not weaker.
If BTC can hold above 64,300 and break out with volume, the next target is the short squeeze zone between 65,400 and 66,000. Cige has finished speaking; savor it. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Paris-based stablecoin issuer Kulipa has shut down, just four months after announcing a $6.2 million seed funding round.
About 20 wallets and crypto companies used it to provide U cards, including cards issued by Ready and Solflare, but overnight, all of them stopped. After its April funding round, Twitter was basically quiet, then suddenly shut down.
What really makes this news worth remembering is the latter half: the funds on these U cards are self-custodial, only withdrawn when swiped, and there is no customer balance in Kulipa. So users didn't directly lose money, just that the card became unusable.
Using the same U card, who holds the funds determines whether the money will hurt or cause serious damage when something happens. When choosing this type of card in the future, I will first look at three things:
1. Confirm that funds are self-custody, and the balance is not in the card merchant's hands
2. Card merchants suddenly become silent or operate abnormally after financing; deactivate the system first and then observe the situation
3. Don't put your core funds into a single issuer's card
Card issuers can go bankrupt, but the asset structure of self-custody is the bottom line.Amazon surged after hours due to clear returns on AI capital expenditures, but macro inflation risks and the stripping out of one-time non-operating gains are becoming the core contradictions limiting the sustained spread of risk appetite in tech stocks.
$AMZN rose more than 9% after hours, mainly driven by AWS revenue reaching $42.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 36.7%, temporarily easing market concerns about the slowdown in cloud business growth. However, the company's free cash flow over the past 12 months has shifted from a positive $18.2 billion to a negative $7.6 billion, indicating that high AI capital expenditures are still exerting substantial pressure on cash flow.
Among the current market pricing drivers, the primary factor is the improved visibility of AI investment returns, followed by changes in macro inflation expectations, and finally institutional position replenishment. Amazon's disclosure of an investment payback period of less than 3 years and server contracts locked in for over 5 years has prompted funds to flow back from panic-driven safe havens into leading tech assets.
To establish a sustained rebound trend in tech stocks, the upside scenario requires two conditions: oil prices falling due to eased geopolitical tensions to reduce upward inflation pressure in July, and AWS's AI business annualized revenue continuously exceeding $25 billion to prove that computing power demand can translate into actual profits. In this scenario, market risk appetite will further spread to semiconductors and crypto assets, with attention on whether the Nasdaq can hold above previous highs.
Conversely, the downside scenario is triggered if the US-Iran conflict continues to push oil prices higher, causing core PCE inflation expectations to rise and thereby limiting the Federal Reserve's liquidity release space. At the same time, if the market begins to strip out the $53.4 billion one-time non-operating gain from Anthropic included in Amazon's net profit this quarter, the real pressure on operating profit will be exposed, leading to a renewed outflow of previously replenished positions.
The failure signals of the above scenario include a cliff-like drop in US consumer spending or a stagnation in the annualized recurring revenue growth of large model companies like OpenAI. This would directly overturn the assumption of "strong AI demand and clear return cycles," and regardless of macro liquidity changes, the valuation re-rating of tech stocks would face interruption.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are the extent to which the US-Iran situation pushes up global oil prices and the market's pricing changes in inflation expectations ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 News hype is something that is a mix of truth and falsehood, reality and illusion. Denying the spin-off of China is normal, but the merger has not been denied, and it can test the attitudes of China and the US, using falsehood to convey truth, attract attention, and draw traffic.
The Shanghai Gigafactory is Tesla's largest and most efficient factory globally, with an annual capacity of 950,000 vehicles, historically accounting for more than half of global deliveries, and Q2 exports still up by +32.8%. If the China business is truly spun off, it would be a huge negative for Tesla overall. $SPCX 🚨PCE turned negative month-on-month, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%—is the market about to change?
Data released last night is quietly changing the trading logic of global capital.
📉 PCE turning negative month-on-month means inflationary pressures continue to cool;
📉 GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, indicating that the U.S. economy is starting to slow down significantly.
Many people's first reaction is: "The economy is worsening, is it going to fall?" ”
But capital markets often trade the future.
If inflation continues to fall and the economy is only moderately slowing, expectations for Fed rate cuts will further heat up, and liquidity may be released again.
What does this mean for U.S. stocks?
If rate cut expectations continue to ferment, AI, chips, and technology growth stocks are most likely to benefit first.
The market may return to a phase of "valuation expansion," with core tech stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta still expected to be the top choice for capital.
Of course, if employment data continues to deteriorate, the market may shift from a "soft landing" to a "recession trade," causing significant short-term volatility.
What does this mean for the crypto world?
For BTC, ETH, and the entire crypto market, liquidity is the true engine.
When dollar liquidity improves and the dollar index weakens, risk assets usually face a correction.
Therefore, this set of data is positive for the crypto market in the medium to long term.
But what truly determines the height of the rally is whether the Fed will send clearer signals of rate cuts in September.
The most important thing to watch now is not how much it rises today, but whether global capital is starting to return to risk assets.
If this macro turning point is truly confirmed, the opportunities in the second half of 2026 may only be beginning. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% $SNDK $BTC $CORE Breaking the CORE team narrative formula: front-end contributors ≠ anonymous behind-the-scenes founders and developers
$CORE
Within various communities, there has long been a highly confusing set of promotional scripts: bringing up publicly appeared figures like Rich Rines and Brendon Sedo, disguising them as project founders, and combining them with the narrative of "Bitcoin pedigree, decentralized DAO" to boost credibility.
But the vast majority of people deliberately concealed the most crucial fact: the initial development team that built the Satoshi Plus consensus, wrote the underlying core source code, and initiated the CoreDAO project remained anonymous throughout the process, never revealing their true identities.
1. Clarifying Personnel Identity: Front desk spokesperson ≠ Founders at the bottom of the ranks
Many people confuse a core concept: publicly recognized contributors are merely the project front office operations, business, and media windows, not the founding team with control over the underlying code.
1. Rich Rines: Chief Technology Spokesperson for External Affairs, former Coinbase engineer, officially positioned only as an early contributor, not as a project initiator;
2. Brendon Sedo: Principal Head of External Business, coordinates ecosystem funds, exchange collaborations, and offline presentations;
3. CJ Reim and Lindsey Haswell: Responsible for DAO governance and legal supervision affairs, respectively.
These individuals have impressive resumes and frequent participation in interviews and global business events, serving as the project's deliberate "face" for the public.
Github code commit records show that a very small number of anonymous addresses have completed the vast majority of underlying protocol development; This group of core personnel has no real names, no public social profiles, and no participation in public interviews; they are the true behind-the-scenes group with grassroots authority.
The entire project has about 45–50 full-time contributors worldwide, distributed worldwide, handling daily development and operations, but core decision-making power is concentrated in an anonymous group.
2. Key Analysis: CORE anonymous development cannot be compared to Bitcoin anonymous
A common saying from the hype is: Bitcoin is anonymous, and CORE is following Bitcoin's example, which is very reasonable. There is a huge logical flaw here.
1. In Bitcoin's early days, there was no token reserved by the team, no linear unlocking, and no foundation treasury chips to keep selling;
2. CORE has hundreds of millions of controllable tokens in team shares, treasury, and ecosystem reserves, which are continuously unlocked on a cycle, providing long-term monetization incentives;
3. Bitcoin anonymity is a historical coincidence; CORE is a core development company that has proactively chosen to remain invisible in a mature crypto regulatory environment.
The risks are obvious: once major issues such as contract loopholes, concentrated dumping of large chips, sudden changes in governance rules, or misappropriation of funds occur, ordinary holders cannot trace the actual controlling entity behind the scenes, leaving almost no way to defend their rights. Front desk business staff can handle external public relations but do not bear ultimate responsibility.
3. "Fully decentralized DAO" is just marketing narrative
The project continues to promote Core DAO decentralized autonomy, but there is a clear gap in reality:
High-weight matters such as token release models, treasury fund transfer rules, network upgrades, and core parameter adjustments are only considered suggestive by the community, with ultimate control still held by anonymous core developers and the foundation's internal circles.
Ordinary community participants find it difficult to shake major decisions and fall far short of true decentralization standards. Decentralization is a promotional label, not the current governance status.
4. Core rumors that have circulated for years are debunked together
❌ Rumor 1: Core DAO = Bitcoin Core, a branch of the official Bitcoin team
✅ Fact: The two are independent, with only similar names. Bitcoin Core is responsible for maintaining the Bitcoin mainnet and has no cooperation or affiliation with CoreDAO. The official team has even specifically distinguished that the community deliberately bundles and creates fake Bitcoin endorsements.
❌ Rumor 2: Satoshi Nakamoto, an early Bitcoin developer, participated in the CORE project
✅ Fact: There is no on-chain proof, official announcement, or credible interview to support this; this story is purely fabricated by domestic communities to attract newcomers.
❌ Rumor 3: Leading leading VCs are heavily investing in CORE early positions
✅ Fact: The project has no traditional ICO or early private placement; initial funds come from testnet airdrops for mining; There is no early large-scale investment by a well-known large venture capital firm, and related rumors lack evidence.
5. Summary of the entire set of publicity tactics
1. Frequently appear as a front-office team with impressive resumes, shaping the impression of a legitimate major company project;
2. Deliberately blurring the line between "contributors" and "founders," guiding the public to see front desk speakers as behind-the-scenes leaders;
3. Selectively avoid anonymous core development, undisclosed early developer chip lists, and long-term unlocking selling pressure;
4. Borrowing Bitcoin's name, anonymity concept, and decentralized narrative to create a falsely secure and orthodox project impression.
💡 Objective reminder
Business visits, offline events, technical sharing, and impressive team resumes can all be continuously packaged; Anonymous developers, massive assets that can be monetized long-term, and limited community governance rights are underlying hard risks that cannot be concealed.
Don't rely on team stories or endorsements as your basis for holding positions; distinguish between front-end promoters and anonymous behind-the-scenes developers to see the essence of the entire narrative.
Speculation in virtual currency trading is an illegal financial activity, and funds are not protected by law. This article is based solely on publicly available information and objectively reviews the information, and does not constitute any investment adviceA three-minute summary of the crypto market
$BTC $ETH
1. Core Industry News
1. Institutional trading share reaches a record high: In the first half of 2026, institutional trading volume accounted for 72% of cryptocurrency OTC trading, setting a new record. A large number of Wall Street institutions have entered the market, effectively calming market fluctuations and making the market trend more stable.
2. South Korea's crypto tax policy implemented: Starting January 1, 2027, a cryptocurrency income tax policy will be implemented. For individuals with annual crypto profits exceeding $1,740 (2.5 million KRW), a 22% tax will be imposed, with no plans for extension.
3. DeFi Project Optimization and Reshuffling: Mainstream DeFi protocol Aave has launched ecosystem streamlining, phasing out 50 low-usage asset reserves in phases, while terminating deployments on multiple public chains such as Sonic, Scroll, and zkSync, purifying inefficient ecosystem assets.
2. 24-hour market trends for mainstream coins
Mainstream coins across the board saw slight gains, with market sentiment on the warmth side of the market:
• BNB: Up 4.0%, quoted at $591.23, leading the mainstream coin
• SOL: Up 2.1%, quoted at $74.66
• ETH: Up 1.4%, quoted at $1919.08
• BTC: Up 1.2%, quoted at $64,736 On July 30, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) dropped a data bomb—the June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative growth since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Six years have passed. The beast of inflation, which has been raging since 2021, has finally "starved" at the data level. I know what you're going to say—"Only 0.1%, how big can it be?" But market trading has never been about magnitude, it's direction. Another set of data released on the same day makes this story even more intriguing. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of 1.5%, not only lower than Q1's 2.1% but also below market expectations of 2.1%. Has growth slowed? On the surface, yes. But BEA also released a key indicator—domestic private final sales (excluding net exports, inventory, and government spending) grew 3.9% in Q2, doubling from 1.7% growth in Q1 and the highest since early 2023. To translate: consumer spending is booming, and corporate investment is tough. GDP growth fell short of expectations because the trade deficit widened—importing large amounts of AI servers and semiconductor equipment. This isn't economic failure, but the US is desperately building AI infrastructure. CICC's report also points out that high import growth essentially reflects the expansion of domestic corporate capital spending and the stocking needs of the AI industry chain. Strong consumption + falling inflation = the Fed's most desired "soft landing" scenario. 1. PCE turning negative: Is it a turning point or a disturbance? Let's break down the data first. JuneA recent liquidation notice from Goldman Sachs has once again put Strategy in the spotlight. The structured bonds linked to Strategy stock, maturing on July 29, will only return about $217 per $1000 invested, a loss of nearly 80%. The issue lies in an implicit clause: if MSTR's closing price falls below 20% under the starting price threshold, holders must bear the full loss starting from the initial price of $421.74. Even worse, the bond's initial total face value was only $660,000, and the documents did not disclose how much principal remained unpaid at maturity, meaning the total loss cannot even be accurately calculated. If Goldman Sachs' bonds are a disaster for investors, then Satsuma is a collapse example of the entire treasury model. This UK-listed Bitcoin treasury company had shareholders approve with over 90% votes to liquidate all 668 BTC and delist. Its average Bitcoin purchase price exceeded $113,000, while Bitcoin traded below $68,000 in July. Its stock price fell from a high of £14 in 2025 to about 21 pence, a drop of over 99%. Pantera Capital also holds about 6% of the company’s shares and publicly pressured to sell the Bitcoin and return cash. Then there are companies that never even got started: BSTR, led by Adam Back, originally planned to list via SPAC merger with about 30,000 BTC. But in early July, the original deal terms were canceled, the private placement voided, and investors redeemed their shares and withdrew. The entire industryDon't just focus on Bitcoin—this wave in the storage sector isn't a rebound—it's a revaluation!
Have you seen Google's financial report?
Cloud revenue +82%, Capex continues to be raised.
The market suddenly realized — AI infrastructure isn't just about buying GPUs; everything behind is storage.
Behind the GPU is HBM,
Servers require DRAM,
Training requires enterprise-grade SSDs,
All models and logs must be stored long-term.
Storage is no longer just about the consumption cycle of phones and PCs,
Now is the AI infrastructure cycle.
What is the reason for the recent rise of Micron, SK Hynix, and WDC?
It's not sentiment—it's global data centers repricing.
Of course, if prices rise too sharply, you need to stay calm.
Keep a close eye on three numbers behind:
HBM supply and demand, DRAM contract prices, cloud manufacturer Capex.
As long as this thread is intact, storage is not a short-term story.
Comment section: How far do you think this wave can go? ETFs finally stopped bleeding, Santander entered the market, Strategy kept buying more and more as it lost, the Clarity Act was still stalled, and Stacks launched Bitcoin staking
Take a look at this daily position report, and break down several key signals:
(1) Bitcoin ETFs have finally stopped bleeding
On July 29, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $32.1 million, ending a four-day streak of capital outflows totaling over $500 million. BlackRock's IBIT raised $89.8 million in a single day, but Fidelity outflowed $43.1 million and Ark outflowed $14.6 million. BlackRock's own money filled the pit where others fled. ETFs as a whole haven't returned to a consensus bullish outlook yet; it's just BlackRock itself buying them.
(2) Santander disclosed Bitcoin ETF holdings for the first time
Spain's Santander Bank disclosed for the first time in its 13F filing that it holds 129,615 shares of IBIT, valued at about $4.31 million, and also holds $350,000 worth of Ethereum ETFs. Although this is $4.3 million—only 0.05% of Santander's $16 billion US stock holdings—this is the first time a major European bank has disclosed its Bitcoin ETF holdings. The symbolic significance outweighs the actual amount: the trend of traditional financial institutions leveraging ETFs to invest in digital assets continues, though the scale remains small.
(3) Cardone Capital buys Bitcoin with rental income
Grant Cardone's real estate company increased its holdings by 10.5 BTC using July rental income, bringing its total holdings to over 2,700 BTC valued at over $171 million. They convert their rental cash flow into Bitcoin every month, regardless of the price, aiming for 3,000 coins by 2026 and 10,000 coins in the long term. This is a true dollar-cost averaging player—continuously buying with cash flow, not looking at prices.
(4) Strategy: Lost 8.2 billion, but still buying
Strategy's Q2 net loss was $8.22 billion, mainly due to impairment losses caused by Bitcoin's price decline. However, the position actually increased by 25% from the beginning of the year to 843,775 BTC. The average cost is about $75,476, while BTC is now priced at 64k, resulting in a paper unrealized loss of about $9 billion. The more it falls, the more you buy; the more you buy, the more you lose; the more you lose, the more you buy. Whether this path is right depends on whether you believe Bitcoin will rise over the long term.
(5) The Clarity Act is still in the loop
The Senate has not yet scheduled a vote, and controversy over the morality clause is the main obstacle. Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of passing by 2026 from 50% to 30%. Treasury Secretary Becent is pressing, but the Democrats are still stalling. If the recess is delayed until August, it will have to wait until autumn, and the window for passage within the year will become increasingly narrow.
(6) Stacks has developed Bitcoin staking
The PoX-5 hard fork has been activated at Bitcoin block 960230, with the core function being Bitcoin Bonds—users can earn BTC yield by locking Bitcoin, without the need for cross-chain bridges, no custody, and private keys are in their own hands. The initial capacity is 3,000 BTC, with a yield of about 3%. If this narrative can turn BTC into an interest-bearing asset without losing control, it would complement the logic of long-term Bitcoin holding.
Overall judgment
ETF liquidity is stabilizing, and signals of institutional entry (Santander) and sustained buying (Strategy, Cardone) are real. However, the delay of the Clarity Act and the backdrop of three Fed officials supporting rate hikes mean the market will not rally in the short term. Bitcoin staking on Stacks is a new narrative, but the initial capacity of 3,000 BTC is still too small.$MU Micron closed today at $874.66.
It rose 18.36% in a single day.
Opened at 793, lowest at 789, highest at 882.
After hours, it continued to push up to around 895.
The storage sector collectively surged.
SanDisk rose 26%, SK Hynix 17%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded over 8%.
The core catalyst is Microsoft's earnings report, with a significant increase in capital expenditure and a positive free cash flow forecast.
Samsung simultaneously warned of supply shortages until 2028, and Micron, as a core HBM supplier, directly benefits.
Micron fell from the July 9 high of 1035 to the July 29 low of 737, a 28% drop in three weeks.
Today's bullish candle is a rebound from extreme oversold conditions.
There is a clear divergence in capital flows.
Smart money is withdrawing from SanDisk and Hynix, concentrating on Micron.
Micron's net long position increased by about $2.5 million today, with long opening volume up 90% compared to yesterday.
Open interest increased by 8.5%, while SanDisk's decreased by 24.8%.
Among the top 10 largest holders, 53% of Micron positions are long, while 82% of SanDisk positions are short.
Retail investors set the largest net sell record since the pandemic on Tuesday, cutting losses at the lowest point again.
Technically, 874 is still some distance from the previous platform of 900-920, with a dense resistance zone at 990-1011.
Short-term rebounds have momentum, but a full recovery in one go is unrealistic.
The mid-term storage cycle logic remains unchanged, HBM demand is still climbing, but the chip structure needs time to repair.
Among the three storage companies, Micron's long position structure is relatively the cleanest.
At this point, do you choose to get in directly, or wait for a pullback to confirm support before acting? "DataHunter Crypto Research Report"· July 31, 2026
Understanding the market with data
📊 1. Market Panorama
BTC is currently trading near 64,800 USDT, up about 1.5%-1.8% in 24 hours. At 5:08 this morning, it dropped to $63,269 but then continued to rise. OKX market data shows BTC has broken through 65,000 USDT. ETH is quoted at 1,918 USDT, up about 1.2% in 24 hours, reaching a high of $1,937.
Panic and Greed Index: Around 30 (fear), slightly rebounding from previous days but still in the fear range.
In the past 24 hours, there were about $147 million in net liquidations, of which short positions were $92.3 million, accounting for 62.7% of the total liquidation—meaning a large number of short positions were washed out during the rebound. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.21 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $62.1 billion.
Mainstream coins rose across the board: SOL rose 1.78%, XRP rose 1.47%, DOGE gained 0.80%. UNI led the top 100 coins with a 12.14% increase.
📍 2. Market trends
BTC continued to recover and rebound from around 62,700 yesterday, holding above the 4-hour Bollinger middle band (64,140), with short-term bulls taking the lead. Currently, prices are approaching the upper Bollinger band (65,194) resistance zone—65,200 is a key short-term watershed. A valid breakout would open further upside, while resistance could lead to a pullback to the middle band seeking support.
Key locations:
· Resistance above: 65,200 (upper Bollinger band), 65,580 (previous high area), 67,712 (a breakout would trigger 1.071 billion short liquidations)
· Support below: 64,140 (Bollinger middle band), 63,660-63,630, 61,524 (a break would trigger liquidations of 1.325 billion positions)
🔍 3. Rebound Drivers: Short Liquidation + ETF Inflow + FOMC Implementation
First, concentrated short liquidation triggers short squeezes. In the past 24 hours, there were $92.3 million in short liquidations, with shorts being heavily liquidated. This is not a trending rally, but rather a rebound driven by short sellers forced to close positions—derivatives trading volume fell 15.48% month-on-month, indicating that new leverage did not follow up on a large scale.
Second, Bitcoin ETFs ended a four-day losing streak. On July 29, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $32.11 million, ending a four-day outflow streak. BlackRock IBIT saw a single-day inflow of $89.83 million, offsetting a $43.08 million outflow from Fidelity's FBTC. Ethereum ETFs have seen continuous outflows.
Third, sentiment recovery after the FOMC's "no rate hike" policy was implemented. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 9:3, and after briefly digesting hawkish signals, risk appetite has somewhat recovered. But three opposing votes mean that expectations for a rate hike in September have not faded.
📌 4. Macro and Events
FTX compensation begins today. On July 31, FTX's fifth round of creditor compensation officially began, involving about $900 million. Historically, a significant portion of FTX's compensation funds have flowed back into the crypto market, which may provide short-term buying support.
Geopolitical risks remain. The Iranian attack pushed oil prices higher, but BTC remained above $64,000 despite the sharp rise in oil prices and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, demonstrating some resilience.
📝 5. Operating Framework
The current rebound is driven by short liquidations rather than a trend reversal—the shrinking derivatives trading volume indicates that new capital has not entered the market in large numbers.
· Above 65,200: If volume breaks above the upper Bollinger band, light positions can follow, targeting 65,500-66,000
· Pullback near 64,140: If stabilized, consider low long positions with stop-loss below 63,800
· Above 65,500-65,800: If volume shrinks and prices stagnate, bulls may take partial profits
· Breaking below 64,000: The rebound structure may be broken, so wait and see for the main approach
Key observations: Tonight's US stock market movement, whether FTX compensation funds will flow into the market, and the breakout above 65,200.
Risk Warning: This article is a research note and does not constitute investment advice.
DataHunter | Understanding the market with dataSamsung rose 20%, SK Hynix rose 24%—today's rebound was explosive enough. But the perspective of well-known trader Ouyang Zhuaibai is clearly not focused on today's gains. He said something worth pondering: just a few weeks have passed, and the fundamentals of storage haven't changed dramatically, yet the stock price has dropped by half. This is the momentum of negative deleveraging, driven by a consistent bullish view across all trading levels. A few weeks ago, Korean media were still hyping up the "golden age of Seoul," with university students being called to trade tech stocks, retail investors flocking to Samsung and SK Hynix, leveraging to the limit and pushing sentiment to the extreme. Then the market turned downward. It's not that the fundamentals have changed; it's that everyone is already in the car, and there's no new money left to take over. The end of a unified bullish stamp is a unanimous stamp. What was Ouyang Zhuobai doing? Between about $122 and $94, intensively place stepwise buy orders for SK Hynix ADRs without stop-loss and buy spot positions. He called it "the biggest deal opportunity of the year." It's not going all-in, but a stepwise acquisition. It's not a leveraged bet, but a gradual build with low positions. This is not someone chasing a rebound, but someone waiting for an opportunity. Is today's rebound a bear covering or a trend reversal? The answer isn't in this bullish candlestick, but in the rhythm of leverage recovery. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $SOXS #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but stock price rebounded 9% #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, causing a sharp drop in the stock price and sparking two controversies #苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours
📊 Apple's Q3 performance was explosive, but it plunged 6% in after-hours trading! What is the market afraid of?
In the early hours of this morning Beijing time, Apple released its financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. The data is impressive:
📊 Core Data:
Indicators and data year-on-year
Revenue $109.4 billion +16%
Net profit $29.79 billion +27%
EPS $2.02 +29%
iPhone revenue $54.25 billion, +22%
Mac revenue $10.35 billion, +29%
Gross margin 50.1%, surpassing 50% for the first time
iPhone, Mac, and Greater China all hit record highs for the same period. This was Cook's last financial report during his tenure, delivering an impressive report card.
However, after hours, the stock price fell 6%, wiping out over $300 billion in market value.
💡 Why did good performance actually fall?
The market is not afraid of the present, but the next three quarters.
1️⃣ Q4 guidance fell short of expectations
Apple expects Q4 revenue growth to be only 9%-11%, below the market expectation of 12.1%. The gross margin guidance was cut directly from 50.1% this quarter to 47%-48%, a drop of 2-3 percentage points.
2️⃣ AI is eating up Apple's supply chain
The four major cloud providers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) have combined capital expenditures of $725 billion this year, a year-on-year surge of 77%, all competing for AI chips and storage.
What about Apple? Capital expenditure over nine months was only $6.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28%.
Apple does not build AI data centers, but cannot avoid the cost transmission of AI infrastructure:
· TSMC's advanced process: N3 capacity sold 100% out, with 60% taken by AI chip customers
· DRAM prices surge: surged over 90% in the first quarter of this year, with a full-year expected increase of 250%-280%.
Cook described the storage price surge as a "once-in-a-century flood." Storage costs in the June quarter were already higher than in March, and prices are expected to continue rising in the September quarter.
3️⃣ Supply restrictions are spreading
Cook said that supply restrictions in the June quarter were mainly concentrated on Macs, but will spread to iPhones and iPads in September. The stocking, pricing, and delivery cycles of the new iPhone will all be affected.
Apple had already "reluctantly" raised the prices of several Mac and iPad models in June. If costs continue to rise, the iPhone may also have to increase in price.
📊 What does this mean for the crypto market?
Explanation of the impact path
🔴 Short-term risk: Apple is the largest heavyweight on Nasdaq; a 6% drop would drag down the tech sector, and the crypto market may follow suit with a 1-2% decline.
🟢 Mid-term opportunity: Traditional tech stocks are being squeezed in valuation by AI, and some funds may flow into the crypto market in search of alternatives
🟡 Tokenized US Stock Stocks: Apple (XAAPL) has tokenized US stocks on OKX, with fluctuations directly reflected in pre- and after-hours trading
⚠️ Three variables to focus on in August:
1️⃣ DRAM contract price trends (determining whether Apple's costs can stabilize)
2️⃣ TSMC's Advanced Process Capacity Allocation (AI vs. Consumer Electronics)
3️⃣ Can Changxin Memory enter Apple's DRAM supply chain (Chinese manufacturers entering may ease supply pressure)
💬 Let's talk in the comments:
1️⃣ Apple falls 6%; will the crypto market follow the drop tonight?
2️⃣ Do you hold tokenized Apple (XAAPL)?
Share your judgment in the comments! 👇
$SNDK $SKHYNIX - Short-term first resistance: 1430‑1460, the first hurdle for the rebound;
- Strong resistance: 1570‑1610, only if volume increases and holds here can the rebound structure be considered open. There is a large amount of trapped positions piled up above, creating heavy selling pressure; a volume-less surge is very likely to fall back.
- Short-term defensive support: 1120‑1140;
- Strong support: 995‑1020, the low platform of this round; if the contract breaks below 1020 with volume, it means this rebound is over and the bottom-seeking trend will restart.
Driving logic
1. The core anchor is US stock SanDisk: the contract itself has no independent fundamentals; the rise and fall are rooted in US stocks SNDK, the storage sector (Micron, Seagate), and the Nasdaq trend; Microsoft's earnings report drove semiconductor sector sentiment, triggering this rebound, not due to any major sudden positive news from the company.
2. Macro Fed: No rate hike in July, but the tone is hawkish, keeping the option for a September hike. High-valuation storage growth stocks are very sensitive to interest rates; rising US Treasury yields will suppress stock prices.
3. Contract market factors:
- After a sharp drop, there is huge divergence between bulls and bears, with high open interest; each big rise and fall is accompanied by massive liquidations, with short-term trading mainly driven by sentiment.
- A large amount of high-level trapped positions above means that as the rebound moves up, the selling pressure from position unwinding continuously increases.
4. Industry fundamentals: AI enterprise SSD is a mid-to-long-term logic, but the stock price has already fully priced in optimistic expectations; future focus will be on flash memory prices and next quarter's earnings data.
Three scenario simulations
1. Baseline scenario (highest probability): 1020‑1460 large range oscillation and tug-of-war. After an oversold rebound, trapped positions are digested, waiting for new US stock news and sector sentiment catalysts, with the contract repeatedly stabbing stop losses.
2. Bullish scenario: Volume increases and holds above 1610, rebound continues, targeting around 1800; without volume support, a surge should not be chased as it is easily a bull trap leading to a drop.
3. Bearish scenario: Effectively breaks below 1020, rebound ends, continuing to seek a bottom downward.
Contract trading reminders (key points)
1. Do not hold heavy positions during US stock market holidays or weekends: liquidity is poor, making abnormal spikes likely to directly hit stop losses and trigger forced liquidation.
2. Do not hold positions stubbornly for a long time: keep watching funding rates, as long positions will incur continuous fees.
3. Do not chase big surges with large bullish candles: this is a repair rebound after a big drop, not a new main upward wave; chasing highs is very likely to get trapped at rebound highs. $SNDK SanDisk closed today at $1,279.96.
It surged 25.99% in a single day.
During the session, it hit a low of 1124 and a high of 1285.
The amplitude was close to 16%, with a trading volume of 23.61 million shares and a turnover rate of 16%.
After the close, it continued to climb, currently quoted around 1340.
The entire storage sector is in a collective uprising.
Micron rose 18%, SK Hynix rose 17%, and Western Digital gained 15%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 8% in a single day.
The core catalyst comes from Microsoft's financial report.
Capital expenditure increased by 70% year-on-year, and management clearly stated that free cash flow for the new fiscal year is positive.
This statement directly dispelled market concerns that AI burning money would drag down cash flow.
Samsung is also stepping in in the same way, stating that the memory chip shortage will continue at least until next year.
But don't forget, SanDisk fell from $1,915 on July 10 to $1,015 on July 29.
In less than three weeks, it was nearly halved.
Yesterday, it even crashed to 998 during trading.
Today's big bullish candlestick is essentially a violent rebound after extreme overselling, not a trend reversal.
On the liquidity side, retail investors net sold $213 million in storage stocks on Tuesday, with SanDisk accounting for the vast majority.
Ironically, retail investors are cutting their losses the most, while institutions are buying at low levels.
SanDisk liquidations in the futures market exceeded $20 million, and short covering also helped boost the gains.
Technically, 1285 is close to the resistance level of 1278 on July 27.
Above, 1436 and 1610 are densely packed trapped positions.
Short-term rebounds still have momentum, but the profit-loss ratio for chasing higher prices is not ideal.
The medium-term storage cycle logic remains unchanged, and expectations for the peak season in Q4 remain intact.
But whether the chips have truly been cleared depends on whether it can hold the previous low during pullbacks.
At this level, are you willing to wait for a pullback for confirmation, or to bet on a direct V-shaped reversal? #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks $CORE Recently, I've started seeing narratives about core project teams doing "on-site business in Africa, offline brick farming, mining implementation."
This pitch sounds practical and easily leads people to think the project team has left the office and is now truly expanding their offline business. But the problem is, offline visits, group photos, and business meetings do not guarantee business implementation; The launch of the business does not necessarily mean the token price will start a major upward trend.
The core reason is simple:
1. Offline customer acquisition in Africa cannot solve the problem of core product delays
CORE initially hyped up narratives like BTCFi, lstBTC, and SatPay.
But up to now, truly impressive large-scale applications, merchant access, institutional funding, and on-chain revenue are still not enough to support a major rally.
Offline business in Africa is essentially more like adding new promotional material, not a breakthrough in core products.
2. The threshold for offline narrative verification is high, making it difficult for retail investors to judge genuine conversions
The African market is indeed suitable for telling stories of "emerging markets, inclusive finance, and offline implementation."
But these narratives share a common trait: easy to take photos, easy to make itineraries, and hard to verify results.
It's hard to judge how many real users, merchant revenue, or on-chain fees a single group photo, a meeting, or a visit can actually bring.
3. The selling pressure issue remains unresolved
The key to the long-term pressure on the CORE market is not the lack of a new story, but the lack of sustained incremental capital support.
Team unlocks, ecosystem reserves, miners/node monetization pressures, and long-term inflation are the real factors suppressing the main rally.
Without continuous inflow of new off-market funds, relying solely on the "African mining" narrative is difficult to truly reverse the supply-demand structure.
4. The narrative has been repeatedly pre-drawn
From Bitcoin grids, dual staking, BTCFi, to now offline expansion in Africa, CORE's promotional materials have actually been repackaged.
The market doesn't ignore stories, but after seeing too much, aesthetic fatigue can occur.
Every rebound requires new capital to take over; without real data to keep up, the market can easily become a short-term pulse.
5. Actual implementation depends on on-chain data, not trip photos
To determine whether CORE has truly entered the main upward wave, don't look at where the project team has gone; look at these factors:
- Whether TVL continues to rise
- Whether protocol revenue continues to grow
- Whether the number of new active addresses has truly increased
- Whether the large unlock selling pressure has been absorbed
- Whether core products like lstBTC and SatPay are truly advancing
- Whether the trading volume comes from real funds rather than quantitative inversion
To sum up:
Doing business offline in Africa isn't necessarily a bad thing.
But whether it can drive the price depends not on whether it goes to Africa, but whether it converts into real business, real income, and real buying.[Pharaoh Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, so why did it still rise after hours?
Pharaoh bluntly said the market has long passed the "data-focused" phase; now it's about "who admits mistake first." Amazon is the first to back down, and the market directly rewards it.
What exactly happened?
The financial report was actually not bad. Revenue reached $158.9 billion, beating expectations at $156.6 billion, and AWS growth returned above 30%. But what really excited the market wasn't the numbers, but the art of "expectation management" in capital expenditure. The market had already prepared itself to spend $200 billion on AI this year, but Amazon said, "You're overthinking it, we're more restrained than you think." As soon as these words were spoken, the market took off after the market closed.
Why is the price rising so fiercely?
Microsoft was the first to back down, effectively reducing its capital expenditure from $190 billion to $175 billion, with an after-hours increase of 8.5%. Amazon quickly followed suit, lowering its capital expenditure guidance for next year from the market expectation of $200 billion to $160 billion. The market's favorite narrative now is "capital expenditure growth slowing and cash flow improving"—whoever delivers this answer card first will rise first.
What does this mean for the big pie?
Amazon's statement further confirms the trend of tech stocks shifting from a "cash-burning race" to a "cash-collecting model." As a liquidity-sensitive asset, Bitcoin can catch its breath if it follows the Nasdaq's sentiment in the short term. But in the medium term, if more companies start cutting capital expenditures, market confidence in AI cools down, which could drag down the overall valuation of tech stocks, and Bitcoin will not escape.
Pharaoh still said, good orders are waited for, not chased.
Follow Pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $SOL #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, but stock price rebounds by 9% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours
Apple's financial report,
Apple's financial report is very good, and the company is profitable,
But there is a major problem: old-fashioned stocks with a single profit model.
When it comes to safe havens, it's a very good safe haven, but when risk appetite rises, these stocks are abandoned.
Given its current situation, Apple doesn't fit in because it hasn't made significant investments in AI, nor does it develop large models or AI hardware.
This leaves capital with no illusions—it's just a straightforward old ox.
At a time when many companies are desperately trying to expand into new fields and move on multiple legs, what Apple lacks is a pioneering spirit reminiscent of the Jobs era.
Currently, a 40x PE ratio isn't exactly cheap, and without the expectations of highly profitable AI, this price may need to be repriced.
The market's attitude toward Apple reveals a problem: this round of AI adjustments has reached a temporary stage, and market risk appetite is rising.🚨 Strategy Has Updated Its Bitcoin Playbook
For years, Strategy's approach was simple: accumulate Bitcoin and never sell. That changed on June 29, when the company approved a framework that allows conditional Bitcoin sales for the first time.
The move appears to address a structural challenge rather than signal a shift in long-term conviction.
The key issue has been $MSTR 's mNAV—the ratio of its market value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings—which has remained below 1.0x for several months. Trading below asset value limits the company's ability to issue shares efficiently to fund additional $BTC purchases, reducing the effectiveness of its previous accumulation strategy.
To strengthen liquidity, Strategy introduced its Digital Credit Capital Framework, which includes:
• A $2.55B USD reserve
• A $1.25B Bitcoin monetization program with strictly defined conditions
• A $1B Digital Credit Securities repurchase program
• A $1B $MSTR share buyback authorization
• An increase in the $STRC dividend to 12%
Bitcoin sales are permitted only under specific circumstances:
- Building the USD reserve
- Covering preferred dividends and interest obligations
- Funding securities repurchases
This is not an open-ended selling plan, but a structured liquidity framework designed to improve financial flexibility.
The company's recent decision to raise $1.15B without purchasing additional $BTC suggests that preserving liquidity has become the immediate priority.
Markets responded positively, with $MSTR shares rising sharply, while $BTC saw only a brief rally before pulling back.
The strategy has evolved—from "never sell" to "sell only when necessary."
💬 Do you see this as prudent risk management, or a development that Bitcoin investors should watch closely?
#SoftPCEStrongDemand
#AMZNMissesButRallies Amazon surges after hours: The market has finally heard the answer AI capital expenditure has been waiting for
After reviewing the earnings reports from Google, Meta, and Microsoft, the market's stance is very clear: no one opposes tech giants continuing to spend on AI; the real concern is when these capital expenditures, often in the hundreds of billions, will start to pay off.
So yesterday we predicted that when it was Amazon's turn, management would know exactly what needed to be clarified. Simply telling the market "AI demand is strong" is no longer enough; investors want to hear about orders, contracts, payback periods, and how much profit these data centers can generate in the future.
Amazon indeed gave a direct answer to this question.
Management stated on the call that AI infrastructure investments typically recoup costs in less than three years; servers usually have a lifespan of five to six years, and most of the company's current AI computing power is already locked in with customer contracts of at least five years. The data centers themselves have a longer lifespan, exceeding 30 years, capable of supporting five to six generations of servers consecutively.
These statements may sound simple, but they are the most important information tonight.
Amazon wants to tell the market that it doesn't just build data centers and then wait for customers to come. Much of the computing power is secured by long-term contracts before the investment is made. Servers lasting five to six years with an average payback period of less than three years means that after recovering hardware costs, the remaining contract period can continue to generate revenue and profit. Even when this generation of servers is eventually retired, the data centers can continue to install the next generation of equipment without starting from scratch with every AI upgrade.
The market worries about uncontrolled capital expenditure, but Amazon's response is: this money is not being spent aimlessly; it is invested under the premise of existing demand, contracts, and calculable returns.
Of course, Amazon's current free cash flow does look unfavorable.
Over the past 12 months, operating cash flow grew 33% year-over-year to $161.4 billion; however, free cash flow dropped from a positive $18.2 billion a year ago to negative $7.6 billion. The most direct reason is the significant increase in investments in AI data centers, servers, and related infrastructure. Over the past 12 months, Amazon's net capital expenditure reached $169 billion, up $66.1 billion year-over-year.
Looking only at free cash flow, this is certainly a pressured report card. But when considering AWS's growth together, the picture changes.
In Q2, AWS revenue grew 36.7% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters; AWS operating profit reached $16.6 billion, with an operating margin of about 39%. This shows Amazon is not just seeing increased capital expenditure without corresponding revenue and profit. At least this quarter, AI investments are driving AWS to accelerate again, and profits are materializing faster than many expected.
Amazon also disclosed that AWS's AI and chip businesses each have annualized revenues exceeding $25 billion and continue to maintain triple-digit growth. Anthropic and OpenAI have committed to multi-year, multi-gigawatt usage of Trainium. Amazon's self-developed AI chips are no longer just a backup option outside of Nvidia but are beginning to handle real workloads for top-tier model companies.
Anthropic should not be overlooked here.
Amazon's net profit this quarter reached $62.6 billion, including $53.4 billion in pre-tax non-operating gains mainly from the book appreciation of its Anthropic investment. This portion obviously cannot be counted as recurring quarterly profit, but it at least proves that Amazon's early investment in Anthropic has already generated substantial financial value.
More importantly, what Amazon gains from Anthropic is not just equity appreciation.
Amazon invests in Anthropic, which in turn purchases training, inference, storage, and networking resources through AWS, while also helping Trainium enter the highest-level large model training scenarios.
This creates a virtuous cycle few companies can replicate. The faster Anthropic grows, the more valuable Amazon's equity becomes; the more computing power Anthropic needs, the higher AWS's revenue; the larger the workload Trainium handles, the less Amazon depends on Nvidia, and the greater the long-term profit potential of its cloud business.
Therefore, Amazon's after-hours rise of over 9% today is indeed helped by a market rebound after consecutive declines, but it should not be simply interpreted as following the broader market rally.
The real re-pricing by capital is that Amazon has finally clarified the accounting behind AI capital expenditure: demand exists, contracts are locked in, payback periods are shorter than server lifespans, and data centers can span multiple hardware generations.
Previously, the market saw free cash flow dragged down by AI investments; tonight, the market begins to see the other side—Amazon is using today's cash flow to build AWS revenue and AI infrastructure advantages for years to come.
This is also why US stock investment sites previously listed AMZN as a core winner entering the AI execution era. The real value lies not just in the willingness to spend, but in turning that spending into orders, profits, and long-term moats. Amazon is proving it has not only the ability to invest but also the ability to convert those investments into business.
$AMZN $META $GOOGL $AAPL $SNDK #美股"US Stock Market Closing Daily Report"
7/30 US Stock Daily: Has the AI rally really returned?
US stocks rebounded strongly on Thursday. The AI rally has not fully returned; the market is simply starting to reward companies that "can prove their investments are turning into profits," while continuing to punish companies with uncontrolled capital expenditures or insufficient profit realization.
First, Microsoft provided positive evidence of AI commercialization.
Microsoft's profits exceeded expectations, Azure cloud business remained strong, and the company did not continue to significantly raise AI spending forecasts like some competitors. Microsoft's stock price rose 15.5%, marking the largest single-day gain in nearly 18 years.
Second, the semiconductor sector saw a retaliatory rebound.
Micron rose 18.4%, Lam Research rose 18%, AMD rose 13%. These stocks had previously fallen continuously; earnings reports and Microsoft's AI demand validation triggered short covering.
However, this looks more like "oversold recovery + earnings validation" and does not yet prove that the chip sector has completed its adjustment.
Third, the market is still differentiating AI spending.
Meta fell 8% due to weak earnings and simultaneously raised its investment spending range. The market is forming a clear standard: spending money itself is no longer positive; only when revenue, profit, and cash flow grow simultaneously will massive AI capital expenditures be accepted.
After-hours earnings:
Apple's revenue grew 16% to $109.42 billion, net profit grew 27% to $29.79 billion, both exceeding market expectations, but the stock fell about 2.3% after hours. This indicates that Apple's prior gains were already substantial, and simply "exceeding expectations" is not enough to continue pushing up valuation.
Amazon AWS revenue grew 37%, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters, but the company raised its full-year capital expenditure plan from $200 billion to $220 billion. The market will continue to question whether cloud business growth can cover the increasing AI investments.
Yesterday's plunge and today's surge indicate that the US stock market is entering a phase of high volatility and strong differentiation, and it is not suitable to interpret a single-day rebound as a trend reversal.
The US stock rebound is positive for BTC, but BTC did not simultaneously break through $65,000, indicating that the capital strength in the crypto market is weaker than in tech stocks.
If the Nasdaq continues to rise while BTC remains sideways, caution is needed as funds may be prioritizing replenishing AI assets; only if BTC holds above $66,000 can it be confirmed that risk appetite has truly spread to the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price isn’t the most interesting thing happening right now. The real signal is hiding in the correlation chart. 👀
The relationship between $BTC and Nasdaq is changing.
When Bitcoin starts moving independently from equities, it usually points to one of two possibilities:
1️⃣ Crypto is being driven by its own internal demand and structural flows.
2️⃣ Traditional risk assets are attracting capital while digital assets are being left behind.
Right now, the first scenario is becoming more interesting.
With institutional products expanding and firms like Morgan Stanley moving deeper into crypto exposure through spot ETH and SOL ETPs, the digital asset market is gaining a stronger connection to traditional finance.
But there’s an important detail:
Not every crypto asset is benefiting equally.
BTC around $64K while ETH struggles to reclaim $2K tells a different story.
This is a split market.
Institutional interest is growing, but liquidity is still selective.
$SOL’s relative strength stands out.
The bigger question is no longer just:
"Is Bitcoin decoupling from stocks?"
The more important question is:
Has Ethereum started quietly decoupling from Bitcoin?
Because the next major rotation may not come from a broad crypto rally.
It may come from which assets can attract the next wave of institutional liquidity.
Follow the flow, not just the price.
Not financial advice.
#OKXOrbit $BTC $ETH $SOL
#DailyOrbit 😎 Mywell Technology ($MRVL) is currently priced at $194.6, in the oversold retracement phase after a 41% retracement from the June high of 329.88 (closed at 183.30 yesterday, +6.3% for the day). In the short term, it has recovered, but in the medium term, remains below the 20-day and 60-day averages of 209.34 and 227.87.
📊 Technical Position (USD)
Resistance (1): 198.7, Fibonacci R1 + round number, breaking out of intraday weak zone.
Resistance (2): 209.3, 20-day MA + Bollinger middle band coincides, strong resistance.
Resistance (3): 227.9, 60-day MA, breakout confirms medium-term strength.
Support (1): 188.9, a recent area with concentrated buying and intraday bullish support.
Support (2): 180.9, 5-day MA; a break would trigger a pullback to test the recent low at 175.15.
Support (3): 169.0, Fibonacci S1, only seen in extreme panic.
🚀 Positive
(1) AI ASIC + optical internet dual engines: Q1 data center revenue of 1.833 billion RMB, accounting for 76%, with FY27 optical interconnect growth forecast raised by over 70%.
(2) Next quarter guidance is a midpoint revenue of 2.7 billion (+35% year-on-year) and a midpoint of EPS of 0.93, fully exceeding expectations, with FY27 revenue expected to reach 11.5 billion.
(3) 42 institutions 86% buy, UBS at 340, KeyBanc at 400, custom chips tied to Amazon/Google TPU.
⚠️ Bearish
(1) GAAP EPS was only $0.039 (down 80% year-on-year), with a net margin of 1.43%, and the worsening profit margin scared off capital.
(2) TTM PE is about 67 times, stock price priced in perfect expectations, Morgan Stanley's neutral target price of 195 indicates limited upside.
(3) ASIC is highly dependent on the top ten customers (82%), and a single cloud vendor cutting orders triggers both valuation and performance losses.
📈 Performance guidance (FY2Q27, to be disclosed in late August)
Midpoint of revenue was $2.7 billion, ±5%, Non-GAAP EPS midpoint was $0.93, gross margin about 59%; FY27 full-year revenue was about $11.5 billion (+40%), and FY28 was about $16.5 billion (+45%). The next financial report is expected to disclose Q2 around August 27, 2026.
🏦 Wall Street target price
42 companies covered, with 86% buying/increasing holdings. The average price is about $268.15, the median is 256.91, with a maximum of 400 (KeyBanc) and a low of 180 (Goldman Sachs). The 194.6 price is about 38% upside from the average price, and is basically in place of the Morgan Stanley neutral target of 195.
💡 $MRVL Trading Perspective: 194.6 is stuck between the 188.9 support and 198.7 short-term resistance. Standing at 198.7, look for a rebound at 209; if 188.9 is lost, move toward 180. Before earnings reports, avoid chasing highs; use the 188.9 gain/loss as a short-term switch; in the long term, the AI ASIC + CXL logic remains unbroken, but high valuations + concentrated customers will cause significant drawdown wear. $XMRVL Here is a simple, clear market prediction post based on the **xAAPL/USDT** daily chart:
## 📈 **$xAAPL/USDT Price Prediction & Analysis**
### **1. Current Situation**
* **Current Price:** $313.56
* **Recent High:** $XAAPL 344.98
* **Recent Low:** $305.95
* **Summary:** The price took a heavy drop (a large red candle) from $345 down to around $306. It is currently trying to stabilize near **$313**.
### **2. Key Price Levels to Watch**
* **Key Support (Floor):** **$305.00 – $306.00**
> *If the price falls below this, it could drop further.*
>
* **Key Resistance (Ceiling):** **$XAAPL 329.00 – $330.00**
> *The short-term moving averages (MA5 & MA10) sit here and will act as strong resistance.*
>
### **3. Market Prediction (Short-Term)**
* **Bearish / Neutral Scenario (Most Likely):**
Because the recent dump was very aggressive, expect some consolidation (sideways movement) between **$308 and $320** over the next few days. The price may test the **$329 resistance level**, but without high buying volume, it could get rejected and pull back down toward **$305**.
* **Bullish Reversal Scenario:**
If buyers push the price past **$330.00** with strong volume, the heavy drop will be considered a fakeout, and the price could climb back toward **$340+**.
> ⚠️ **Disclaimer:** *This is an technical analysis breakdown for educational purposes, not financial advice. Always do your own research before trading!*
> $XAAPL Don't guess where $SNDK is headed
After yesterday's strong 26% rebound, it is unlikely that the overall trend will continue a one-sided rally this afternoon, and profit-taking will be the main trend throughout the day.
Observing the market chart, it's not hard to see that after the pre-market surge to $1354, the upward momentum has clearly exhausted.
Each round of slight gains triggers a large amount of short-term profit-taking selling pressure. The support below is decent, but incremental bull funds have long stopped entering the market.
Based on on-chain and contract data tracked over several days, most of the leveraged funds that bottom-fished yesterday chose to cash out in batches and exit.
The number of large-scale take-profit transfers on-chain has doubled, funding rates continue to fall, and the short-term speculative activity on the market has cooled significantly.
Long-term whales have basically held their positions without moving at all, neither increasing their positions nor selling, quietly waiting for the market's direction to be selected.
At the track level, this round of rally relies on Microsoft's earnings to restore cloud procurement expectations, supported by the storage price hike cycle.
However, it is essentially a short-covering rally after overselling, without any new fundamental positives, and its sustainability is inherently lacking.
The storage sector collectively paused in tandem, with Micron and SK Hynix's gains narrowing sharply, and the sector's clustering heat faded.
From a practical trading perspective, I won't chase the highs in the afternoon to buy positions.
Above, the $1400 to $1450 range has accumulated a large amount of previously trapped chips, making a short-term breakout difficult.
In the afternoon, there is a high probability of a fluctuating pattern of surges and pullbacks, with repeated fluctuations in the range becoming the norm.
If the support level holds at $1280, the range will remain ranged; if it falls below it, it will give back most of the day's gains.
Overall, the short-term sentiment dividend has been fully realized, and the phase of consolidation grinding has officially begun.
After the short-term hype fades, how should we grasp the rhythm of selling high and buying low next?
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks $ETH On July 31, on-chain statistics based on DeFi Active TVL ranked Monad third globally with $367.1 million; trailing only Ethereum ($2.047 billion) and Solana ($484.5 million). As a new generation of high-performance Layer1 public blockchains, Monad has leapt to become one of the fastest-growing underlying public blockchains in the current RWA sector. 1. How to Understand the Core Value of This Data: 1. Key Statistical Differentiation: This time, it focuses on active DeFi TVL, excluding idle assets, and more truthfully reflecting on-chain funds participating in trading, lending, and other activities. Compared to the general TVL, it is less inflated and represents real liquid capital. 2. Clear tier structure: Established Ethereum and Solana still hold the top tier, while Monad has successfully shaken off many traditional public chains to become a representative of new forces. Relying on parallel execution architecture and EVM compatibility, it continuously attracts DeFi protocols and RWA institutions to deploy. 3. Narrative Resonance: A large number of tokenized real-world assets continue to migrate on-chain, and RWA funds are steadily accumulating, which is the core driving force behind Monad's sustained rise in active stake-lock, with clear signs of institutional capital deployment. 2. Two major risks must be viewed rationally: (1) TVL growth ≠ tokens immediately strengthen. Much on-chain liquidity relies on incentive funds and short-term cross-chain arbitrage funds, which have high liquidity. Once incentives fade, they can quickly flow out; The size of hedging is only a fundamental indicator