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Winning earnings, missing expectations—Tim Cook's farewell show, Apple personally returned the crown to Nvidia
Performance exceeded expectations.
Then the stock price crashed.
You hold AAPL in your hand, looking at the big bearish candlestick behind the market. Is there only one question in your mind: why?
In the early hours of July 31 Beijing time, Apple released its final earnings report during Cook's tenure.
The numbers are unbelievably beautiful:
Revenue reached $109.42 billion, up 16% year-on-year, setting a new quarterly record high for June
EPS was $2.02, up 29% year-over-year, nearly 7% higher than the market expectation of $1.89
iPhone sales reached $54.25 billion, up 22%, setting a record for the same period
Macs sold for $10.35 billion, surging 29%
Every single one beats the beat.
Then, in after-hours trading, the stock price fell 6.33%.
Its market value evaporated by over $300 billion overnight.
If Friday's close maintains this decline, it will be Apple's largest single-day drop since earnings reports since 2014.
Better-than-expected performance has led to the harshest bearish candlestick in ten years.
Why?
Because the market is not looking at the past, but at the future.
Apple's CFO said a couple of words during the conference call that immediately triggered the sell-off:
First, the revenue guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter is only 9% to 11%.
What is the market expectation? More than 12%.
Second, supply constraints will "significantly intensify" in the fourth quarter, affecting the entire product line of iPhone, Mac, and iPad.
Translated into plain language: The good days you thought were coming to an end. Next quarter, there won't be enough goods to sell.
A deeper question: Who pushed Apple to this point?
It's AI.
Apple rose 23% this year, outperforming the Big Seven. What did it rely on? "AI hedging trades" — The market sees Apple as a safe haven among tech stocks because it doesn't build data centers, doesn't spend money on graphics cards, and is unaffected by the AI bubble.
And what happened?
AI has taken over global memory capacity.
Cook said during the call: "We are in a once-in-a-century storage pricing environment, with storage prices rising exponentially. ”
Memory costs in June were already higher than the previous quarter and are expected to continue rising in September.
Apple hasn't built a data center this year, but AI companies around the world have spent money on Apple's chips skyrocketing.
You think it's a safe-haven asset, but you're actually paying for the AI bubble.
There are two more loopholes that the market hasn't missed either.
First: Service business.
$30.74 billion, up only 12%, below the expected $31.2 billion. This ended more than three consecutive years of record-high quarterly service revenue.
The gross margin of the service business is close to 75%. If this segment isn't profitable, Apple's valuation logic collapses by half.
Second: Greater China.
$18.82 billion, lower than the expected $19.67 billion.
China's 22% growth rate looks good, but institutions expect it to be above 25%. Local Android flagships are diverting, while Apple's service ecosystem is under pressure.
What hurt the most?
This is Cook's farewell financial report.
On September 1, hardware engineering giant John Ternus took over as CEO.
Cook worked at Apple for 15 years, building the company to nearly $5 trillion in market value. The final financial report showed results exceeding expectations across the board—then the stock price plunged 6%.
The market votes with its feet by: Thank you, Cook. But now, all we care about is whether we can buy next quarter.
You buy Apple thinking you're buying "the world's most stable tech company."
It turned out that the victim was "a victim whose memory was stolen by AI."
The iPhone 18 will be released next month, and foldable iPhones are also coming.
But there are not enough chips, memory, or production capacity.
On the day of the new product launch, you might not be able to get the goods. Apple's revenue may be lost by tens of billions due to these supply chain bottlenecks.
You focus on candlesticks. Cook watches the supply chain.
He's retired, and your position is still in there.
$BTC $SNDK $AAPL
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours I finally figured out what fueled today’s breakout in SK hynix.
At first, I expected nothing more than a routine relief bounce. Then that massive green candle appeared. Moves like this rarely come from a single headline—it was the result of several bullish catalysts aligning at once.
The biggest confidence boost came from SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, who purchased 3,620 shares of SK hynix on July 30, worth about 4.8 billion KRW. It was his first direct investment in the company, making it a strong insider signal after the stock had dropped from around 2.18 million KRW to 1.32 million KRW.
The broader memory sector also caught fire. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 7%, while SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, Micron, and SK hynix all posted strong gains. When an entire sector rallies together, it usually reflects improving fundamentals rather than short-term speculation.
Microsoft’s earnings added even more fuel. Azure continued to deliver impressive growth, annual cloud revenue surpassed $100 billion, and stronger profitability eased concerns about slowing AI infrastructure spending. At the same time, bullish analyst upgrades and expectations for stronger DRAM pricing and HBM demand next year reinforced the positive outlook.
My average entry sits around 908.37, and the position is now showing a healthy unrealized profit. Instead of trying to call the exact top, I’m gradually taking profits into strength while raising my stop-loss to protect gains. If the stock pulls back without violating my risk level, I’ll reassess based on price action rather than emotion.
This trade has reinforced an important lesson: finding a winning trend is only part of the process. Preserving those gains through disciplined risk management is what separates good trades from great ones.
$SKHYNIX $ETH $BTC
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay Last night, the US stock storage sector exploded
SanDisk up 26%
Micron up 18%
Western Digital up 15%
Seagate up 11%
On the surface, it's a rebound
But the core is still two things
Microsoft's AI CapEx continues to increase
Samsung warns that storage supply tightness may continue until 2028
The market is repricing
AI is not just buying GPUs
It also needs to buy HBM, DRAM, NAND, SSD
But don't chase this as a belief
Storage is a strong cycle
Valuations are great when prices rise
Once supply increases
Valuations can be cut quickly
The above content is only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice
Investing involves risks, enter the market with caution Let's start with the market's most straightforward trading logic: stock prices don't look at performance, but at how much the results exceed market expectations and whether the financial report can support the growth story ahead. The financial reports of all four companies exceeded expectations, but the core focus of capital was completely different, resulting in a different market trend. Meta (up 11% in after-hours trading) The biggest surprise in this earnings report was earnings elasticity. The advertising business, as a fundamental asset, is steadily growing with ample cash flow, allowing continuous investment in AI infrastructure while losses related to the metaverse continue to narrow, alleviating investors' long-term concerns about "endless cash burning." The market recognizes its business model: relying on advertising cash to feed AI, which in turn optimizes ad placement, creating a positive cycle. Commercialization of Threads and WhatsApp continues to advance, with short-term returns visible and clear growth paths. Combined with the fact that previous valuations were not overhyped, capital was willing to offer higher premiums after the financial report was released. Amazon (up 7%-8% in after-hours) The core highlight is AWS. Previously, many institutions worried that intensified competition in the cloud market would slow growth, but AWS achieved its best growth rate in 18 quarters, with AI-related cloud demand clearly reflected in revenue. On one hand, enterprise AI computing orders continue to grow; on the other, retail e-commerce and logistics businesses are stabilizing their fundamentals. The company has clearly set a 200 billion yuan AI capital expenditure plan, with a clear direction for investment. The commercialization of AI infrastructure is visible and tangible, and continuous procurement from enterprise customers brings stable incremental growthThe current situation is—
On the surface: inflation has fallen, the economy has slowed down, and interest rate hikes are unnecessary.
Breaking it down: Americans haven't cut back on spending at all, corporate investment is ramping up, core inflation is 3.3%—still far from the Fed's 2% target.
The White House was also divided: Hasett said PCE made Wash "easier," and Navarro directly called for rate cuts.
Wall Street is even more chaotic:
JPMorgan: Rate hike expected in December
Bank of America: Three rate hikes starting in September
Goldman Sachs and Barclays: No rate hikes this year
Citi: Reductions are made in October, December, and January
Four institutions, four directions.
Let me share my assessment.
PCE turned negative month-on-month—this is indeed a landmark event. For the first time in six years, the Fed cannot pretend not to see it.
But what if this is a trending turning point for inflation? Don't rush to conclusions.
The core driver of this round of cooling is the drop in energy prices—the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement has brought oil prices down. But the ceasefire agreement is fragile, and oil prices remain at historic highs. If the Middle East causes another stir, inflation will bounce back in no time.
Moreover, core PCE is still at 3.3%, a full 1.3 percentage points above the Fed's target. Structural inflationary pressures have not eased at all.
The cooling of inflation is temporary, but strong domestic demand is real.
So how does the market move?
After the data came out, Bitcoin surged above $65,000, gold surpassed 4,100, and the dollar fell below 100—the market immediately traded "Inflation cooling = positive for risk assets."
But let me remind you: the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from nearly 100% to around 60%, not zero. 65% of the pricing is still there.
The real meaning of this set of data is: the Fed has neither the urgency to raise rates nor the room for cuts—stuck in the middle, unable to move.
The market needs July's employment and inflation data to "inspect" the goods. Before this—
There will be no V-shaped reversal, nor will there be a crash. It's just a shock, a bit exhausting.#PCE Turns Negative Month-on-Month, GDP Growth Slows to 1.5%
I am Cige. The PCE turned negative month-on-month for the first time since 2020. Year-on-year it fell from 4.1% to 3.7%, with the core at 3.3% as expected. The annualized GDP at 1.5% was below the expected 2.1%, but domestic private final sales excluding net exports, inventories, and government spending grew 3.9%, hitting a new high since early 2023. Inflation is cooling while domestic demand is heating up. This contradictory data means the 63% rate hike pricing for September faces recalibration.
PCE Turning Negative Is a Real Signal
The PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, the first monthly negative value since 2020. The trend of cooling inflation is confirmed, reducing the urgency for the Fed to raise rates immediately. Inflation is cooling, but strong domestic demand means the Fed does not need to rush to cut rates. This is why the probability of a rate hike in September remains at 63%. The market has not abandoned rate hike pricing despite the PCE turning negative because domestic demand data is too strong.
Impact on BTC
In the short term, this is clearly positive. The PCE turning negative month-on-month reduces the urgency for rate hikes, benefiting risk assets. BTC rebounded from below 64,000 to 65,118, and the Nasdaq surged 2.8%. However, strong domestic demand in the medium term means high interest rates need to be maintained longer. This is the core contradiction in the data: inflation cooling but domestic demand heating up. This combination is what the Fed fears most. In the short term, the PCE turning negative is positive, but in the medium term, strong domestic demand means high rates must persist longer. If July data continues to confirm the cooling inflation trend, the September rate hike probability will fall from 63%, giving BTC new upward momentum. BTC is currently at 64,300, having pulled back about 800 points from 65,118. After the PCE data, the market is oscillating between 64,000 and 64,500 to digest it, needing a new catalyst to break through the short squeeze zone of 65,400 to 66,000.
Trading Strategy
If holding long positions, set stop loss below 63,500. If the position is heavy and opened above 65,000, reduce some holdings on a rebound to 64,500–64,700. If the price pulls back to the 63,500–64,000 range and stabilizes, it is a buying opportunity.
Whether the PCE turning negative is the start of a trend or a single-month phenomenon caused by oil price disturbances, the market needs July data to decide. The short-term direction is upward but requires a new catalyst to push through.
Cige has finished. Think it over. $ETH $ETH $SNDK I finally figured out what fueled today’s breakout in SK hynix.
At first, I expected nothing more than a routine relief bounce. Then that massive green candle appeared. Moves like this rarely come from a single headline—it was the result of several bullish catalysts aligning at once.
The biggest confidence boost came from SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, who purchased 3,620 shares of SK hynix on July 30, worth about 4.8 billion KRW. It was his first direct investment in the company, making it a strong insider signal after the stock had dropped from around 2.18 million KRW to 1.32 million KRW.
The broader memory sector also caught fire. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 7%, while SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, Micron, and SK hynix all posted strong gains. When an entire sector rallies together, it usually reflects improving fundamentals rather than short-term speculation.
Microsoft’s earnings added even more fuel. Azure continued to deliver impressive growth, annual cloud revenue surpassed $100 billion, and stronger profitability eased concerns about slowing AI infrastructure spending. At the same time, bullish analyst upgrades and expectations for stronger DRAM pricing and HBM demand next year reinforced the positive outlook.
My average entry sits around 908.37, and the position is now showing a healthy unrealized profit. Instead of trying to call the exact top, I’m gradually taking profits into strength while raising my stop-loss to protect gains. If the stock pulls back without violating my risk level, I’ll reassess based on price action rather than emotion.
This trade has reinforced an important lesson: finding a winning trend is only part of the process. Preserving those gains through disciplined risk management is what separates good trades from great ones.
$SKHYNIX $ETH $BTC
#SoftPCEStrongDemand
#AppleBeatsButDrops $MU $XMU finally shines! 🥳
Micron Technology (MU) saw a strong rebound on Thursday, July 30, 2026, mainly driven by positive sentiment from major tech earnings reports. Below is a detailed analysis of the reasons behind the price movement and key points to watch going forward:
1. July 30 Price Movement Analysis: Why the 18.4% Surge?
After suffering four consecutive trading days of heavy losses (a cumulative drop of 25%), Micron rebounded strongly by 18.4% on July 30, closing at $874.66. This surge was mainly attributed to the following factors:
Microsoft Earnings Release Showing "Confidence in AI Spending": Microsoft’s latest earnings demonstrated a continued commitment to AI infrastructure investment and emphasized its "responsible capital expenditure" strategy, successfully alleviating market fears of an "AI bubble" or "uncontrolled spending by cloud giants." Investors interpreted this as: as long as cloud giants like Microsoft keep placing orders, demand for memory chips (Micron’s core product) remains strong.
Market Reconfirmation of AI Spending Sustainability: Previously, the market worried that AI investments wouldn’t translate into immediate revenue. Microsoft’s earnings mentioned signs of AI monetization and healthy cloud business growth, which not only supported Micron but also boosted the entire semiconductor sector (including AMD, Marvell, etc.).
Technical Buying and Valuation Correction: The stock had sharply corrected over the past four days, triggering a clear "oversold rebound" sentiment. Analysts believe part of the prior decline stemmed from investor concerns about Chinese memory competition (e.g., CXMT) and high leverage in the semiconductor industry; as market sentiment recovered, investors began returning to these relatively reasonably valued chip stocks.
Competitor Information: Industry peer Samsung Electronics reported impressive earnings that day and forecasted that the memory market supply shortage might continue into next year, further strengthening market confidence in the memory industry fundamentals.
2. Key Points to Watch Today and in the Short Term
Despite the strong performance on July 30, Micron remains highly volatile. Key points to monitor include:
Sustainability of AI Spending Narrative: This rebound is based on the interpretation of Microsoft’s earnings. If other tech giants (such as Google, Meta, Amazon) signal "cutbacks" or "wait-and-see" approaches to AI capital expenditures, Micron may face renewed volatility.
Memory Supply and Demand Details: Closely watch follow-up guidance from Samsung or other memory manufacturers. Micron’s stock price currently heavily depends on expectations that the "memory supply gap" will persist; any signs of overcapacity will directly pressure the stock price.
Technical Resistance Zones: Although MU rebounded strongly, it has still declined over 20% cumulatively since July. It’s important to observe whether the stock can effectively hold key technical support levels (such as recent moving average structures) and test resistance at previous highs.
Macro Sentiment: Pay attention to overall capital flows in the semiconductor sector. The market remains sensitive to tech stocks; if the Fed’s interest rate path, inflation data, or other macroeconomic reports trigger risk-off sentiment, high-beta (high volatility) stocks like Micron tend to be hit first.
Summary:
Micron’s recent strong rebound proves that market confidence in AI memory demand fundamentals remains intact. In the coming days, it is recommended to focus on "overall tech sector commentary on AI capital spending" and "the opening performance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index," as these will directly reflect whether the market is willing to chase prices or treat this rally as an opportunity to reduce positions and exit. At first, I thought SK hynix was just getting a relief bounce. Then I looked deeper.
That massive green candle wasn't driven by a single headline.
It was the result of multiple bullish catalysts hitting the market at the same time.
The first one caught my attention immediately.
SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won bought 3,620 shares of SK hynix on July 30, worth roughly ₩4.8 billion. More importantly, it was the first time he'd ever bought SK hynix directly, rather than owning it indirectly through SK Square.
After the stock had fallen from around ₩2.18 million to ₩1.32 million, that insider purchase sent a powerful message: confidence.
Then the entire memory sector caught fire.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 7%, while SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, Micron, and SK hynix all rallied together. Moves like that usually signal institutional money rotating into a sector—not just retail chasing momentum.
Microsoft added even more fuel.
Azure continued posting strong growth, annual cloud revenue crossed $100 billion, and the results eased concerns that AI infrastructure spending was slowing. Add in bullish analyst reports, improving DRAM pricing expectations, and stronger HBM demand forecasts for next year, and it's easy to see why investors stepped in.
As for my position, my average entry is around 908.37, so I'm sitting on a healthy unrealized gain.
I'm not trying to sell the exact top.
Instead, I'll scale out gradually into strength while raising my stop to protect profits. If the stock pulls back but stays above my risk level, I'll reassess based on price action—not emotions.
One lesson this trade keeps reminding me of:
Finding the trend gets you into the trade. Managing the exit is what determines how much of that trend you actually keep.
$SKHYNIX $ETH $BTC
#PCE环比转负 #GDP增速放缓至1_5%
#DailyOrbit $AERO vs $UNI · On Base
Uniswap's trading volume on Base is 30% lower than Aerodrome's.
But its revenue there is 80% higher.
Past 30 days:
→ Aerodrome trading volume: $11.38B
→ Uniswap trading volume: $7.92B
→ Aerodrome fee: $6.26M
→ Uniswap fees: $11.27M
One dollar per route:
→ Uniswap: captures 14.2 basis points
→ Aerodrome: captures 5.5 basis points
Fee for every dollar earned:
→ Uniswap: $0.00 for emissions
→ Aerodrome: $1.25 for emissions
Aerodrome wins traffic. Uniswap is priced better.Let me tell you how some people hurt you.
And not just anyone, but those who are completely unqualified and ignorant.
Especially recently, this matter has caught my particular interest.
What I'm talking about are those influencers spreading FUD by manipulating your emotions.
How do they do it?
They first set a goal. For example, a coin, an internet celebrity, or another project......
They profit by selecting a coin to fall or the influencer to suffer, then organizing a siege of that person or project through groups established on Telegram.
Their only motivation is this; Nothing else.
So, why do they do this? Let me explain.
They exploit your anger; Use your fears to build trust and quickly gain a large following base.
That is, not because they care about you. It's because they see you as products, as numbers.
Now let me tell you why I take this matter so seriously.
I've been in this industry since 2017. During my active trading period, I may have made tens of thousands of transactions.
For example;
In 2021, Elon Musk got a dog. A dog of the Shiba Inu breed. He named it Floki and shared the photo.
Within days, a coin named after this appeared.
I bought it in scattered amounts at prices of 3 to 4 million dollars.
Now look at what that community is doing.
Everyone knows that Elon Musk will one day share that dog again. But if when that day comes, no one thinks of this coin, then it becomes meaningless.
So they use the only thing they have. A 4% share deducted from each transaction.
They used that money to go to London.
In October 2021, they placed ads on London buses and the Underground. It lasted about two months, with 40,000 ads released.
The ad only had one sentence. If you miss $Doge, buy Floki.
One morning, a British man heading to work saw that poster on the subway.
In November, the UK's advertising regulator launched an investigation over complaints. In March 2022, they ruled the ads irresponsible and banned them.
In other words, a small group of people using the money they have withdrawn from their own pockets to create a sound strong enough to get an advertising agency in a country to act.
Finally, the day everyone had been waiting for arrived; Elon Musk posted that tweet.
It has become a well-known coin and has rapidly soared to billions of dollars.
During that period, I knew some people who entered the market for $2,000, and their lives completely changed.
From the price I entered, it has increased 30 to 40 times. I didn't sell it.
Then the bear market hit, and $Floki even dropped below my initial buying price.
That is to say, there was a period when I was at a loss.
Back then, everyone sold their products. Some even advised me to sell.
I didn't sell it.
Not because I'm stubborn. It's because I know what those people are doing. I know where the advertising money comes from, I know who stays up late until what time.
Unlike those who only look at charts, I know the story behind it......
Let's talk about the importance of fundamental analysis.
When the bull market came, I made quite a bit of money.
What made that sharing valuable was not Elon Musk.
Elon Musk just posted a photo of the dog. What turned that photo into something worth billions were those posters that hung on the subway months ago.
But today, the situation is completely the opposite.
People buy things with stories and chase profits the next day. When it comes to buying things, they do nothing just to promote them.
However, memecoins mean community. No other production tools were available. No factories, no patents. Only how many people are working on the same thing at the same time.
One more thing.
Most of the attackers didn't even know what that project was. No reading, no looking, no research. Wherever the crowd goes, they go.
This is precisely why Turkey has been unable to grow.
I am very reluctant to talk about these things among my own people, but unfortunately, this is the reality.
The memecoin culture here cannot develop precisely because of this toxic group.
Those guys know nothing about the industry, so when selling at high prices, they don't even feel like they're hurting others.
Memecoin culture is exactly like that; Those who act first, who study and support the community, will always reap the fruits of their efforts.
In fact, it's not just memecoins; All currency markets operate in a similar way.
There is only one difference: the product; Products are marketed. Here is the story......
What is always bought and sold is hope.
When some win, others lose.Azure cloud business explosion and AI monetization landing, Microsoft MSFT stock price surged strongly by 9%–16%, leading the main theme of the US tech stock rebound, with trading volume ranking among the top in the US market.
Microsoft's latest quarterly report comprehensively exceeded Wall Street expectations, with Azure cloud business revenue growth reaching as high as 43% year-over-year (market expectation 39.6%).
The management's previous large-scale AI infrastructure capital expenditure has begun to convert into substantial commercial revenue, effectively alleviating market concerns about "AI spending money without making money," directly driving the overall tech sector sentiment recovery.
As a core buyer of global computing power infrastructure, Microsoft's strong cloud demand has revitalized the upstream chip and hardware supply chain prosperity.
Even under the macro background of rising US Treasury yields, its abundant free cash flow and highly certain profit growth still make it the first choice for capital risk aversion and offense.
$MSFT
#微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 Last night, a signal that most people overlooked may be rewriting the script for the crypto market in the second half of the year.
The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month.
This is the first time since the pandemic began in 2020—the first monthly negative PCE in six years.
The beast of inflation is truly starting to "go hungry" at the data level.
I know what you're about to say—"Only 0.1%, how big a stir can it be?" ”
But market trading has never been about magnitude, but direction.
Another set of data released on the same day is even more interesting:
The annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 1.5%, below the expected 2.1%.
Growth has slowed, hasn't it? On the surface, yes.
But looking closely—after excluding net exports, inventories, and government spending, domestic private final sales grew by 3.9%, the highest since early 2023.
Translation: Ordinary people's spending is booming, and corporate investment is tough.
GDP growth fell short of expectations due to a widening trade deficit—importing large quantities of AI servers and semiconductor equipment. It's not that the economy is weak, but that the U.S. is desperately building AI infrastructure.
Strong consumption + falling inflation = the Fed's most desired "soft landing" scenario.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
The nominal interest rate has basically been confirmed.
In July, the Federal Reserve voted 9:3 to keep rates unchanged, with three officials voting in favor of raising rates. The market's pricing in a rate hike in September once surged to 57%.
But after PCE turned negative, this pricing faced a recalibration.
Why? Real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation.
When PCE turns negative, even if the nominal rate remains unchanged, the real interest rate is passively rising—this has been the core logic behind valuation cuts over the past two years.
But now, the marginal direction of inflation has changed.
The market no longer panicked about "how much more will it increase?" and began to debate "when to lower prices."
Although core PCE year-on-year at 3.3% is still well above the Fed's 2% target and the structural problem of inflation is not fully resolved—marginal change is the core of market pricing.
After the PCE data was released, Bitcoin briefly broke through $65,000, rising about 2% intraday. The US dollar index fell more than 0.9%, marking its largest single-day drop since January. Gold climbed back above $4,100.
The market is already voting.
I know some people might say, "Isn't this just an oil price disturbance?" How long can the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement last? ”
Even if it was a disturbance, it was a directional disturbance.
The first negative turn in six years—this "first" is itself a signal.
The crypto market is doing what expects. When PCE turns negative, the liquidity inflection point is no longer out of reach.
Even if there is another rate hike in September (the probability has now come down), it will be the last.
Don't get hung up on whether the monthly data is caused by oil prices. Remember: the market trades marginal changes.
Negative values are attitudes.
If you are overly pessimistic at this level, you may miss the most critical turning point in the macro spectrum. $BTC Today's MicroStrategy earnings report: the first quarter earnings report day marks the bottom of Bitcoin. This financial report first broke free from the stock price death spiral; with sufficient cash flow, it will continue to purchase Bitcoin, and second, it will discuss measures to stabilize STRC's price.
I estimate this earnings report will have a positive impact on Bitcoin, and I am optimistic that BTC will break through to 70,000.
#DailyOrbit Crypto used to move 24/7.
Lately it feels like it only starts trading at 9:30pm EAT.
Why? The players changed.
Institutional money is in now. ETFs, hedge funds, and US desks trade BTC the same way they trade tech stocks.
They wait for the US market to open to check risk, hedge Nasdaq, and reposition.
Add in CME futures and ETF flows that only happen during US hours, and you get this:
6 hours of sideways during the day. Then one candle at US open sets the tone for the next 24 hours.
Liquidity, liquidations, and real direction now cluster between 4:30pm - 11pm EAT
Trading shift:
Stop chasing chop in the morning.
Watch structure during the day. Trade direction after the US wakes up.
The opportunities aren’t gone. They’re just sitting where the capital is actually active.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay PCE data was delivered as expected, market panic eased briefly, and overall BTC remained resistant to declines while ETH showed stronger resilience. On-chain whales have been gradually allocating WBTC and ETH for a month, which is a medium- to long-term capital signal, but it cannot immediately drive a short-term one-sided surge, nor can it be used as a short-term entry point.
Key locations
BTC
Resistance: 64,600—65,000; only by holding firmly can there be further upside potential
Support: 62,700—63,000, serving as the short-term lifeline for this round
ETH
Resistance: 1930–1950, with trapped holdings concentrated above
Support: 1860; if it falls, the next target is 1835
ETH/BTC exchange rate faces key resistance at 0.03, with multiple breakthroughs failing to hold steady, marking a dividing line between strength and weakness.
Market views
Currently, this rally is a form of emotional recovery, not a trend reversal.
On the macro level, inflation simply hasn't worsened, and the Fed's hawkish stance hasn't changed. At the same time, risks from previous sharp declines in US tech stocks and the storage sector still exist.
ETH closely linked to the Nasdaq, with a stronger rebound, but its sustainability is questionable. Once US market sentiment weakens, ETH will pull back significantly faster than BTC.
Many people rush to chase the highs when they see whales continuously increasing their positions. Here, a rational distinction is needed:
Whales build positions gradually on a monthly basis and can withstand prolonged volatility; Ordinary retail investors have short capital cycles and blindly chase within resistance zones, making it easy to be shaken out back and forth.
1. All rebounds should be treated as repairs; don't fantasize about continuous one-sided ralls
2. Near the resistance level above, prioritize observation and phased reduction, avoiding chasing long positions
3. Prioritize BTC for position allocation; be cautious about heavy ETH gambling
4. Try to avoid high leverage; intraday back-and-forth insertion risks are relatively highSK Hynix rebounds dramatically by 28%! The bears were stunned—is this wave a reversal or an oversold repair?
Guys, Hynix's rebound today was indeed strong, rising from around 900 all the way up to above 1148, with intraday gains exceeding 28%. Just a few days ago, there were concerns about the collapse of AI logic, but today market sentiment has taken a major turnaround.
Why suddenly become so strong?
The core is still the combination of three factors.
First, after market panic was released, funds began to reassess AI storage logic. The earlier sharp decline was mostly due to disappointing earnings expectations and sentiment stampede, but as a core supplier of HBM high-end storage, SK Hynix's demand for AI computing power has not disappeared, and the long-term industry logic remains.
Second, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won made his first personal purchase of SK Hynix shares, increasing his holdings by 3,620 shares. This move sends a clear signal: after a sharp correction in stock prices, the company still has confidence in its long-term value, which has boosted market confidence.
Third, the US semiconductor sector is recovering, AI-related stocks are recovering in sentiment, and the memory industry chains like Micron and SanDisk have rebounded, with funds flowing back into semiconductors.
From the market perspective, today's strong bullish candlestick directly restored the previous losses, with key moving averages of MA7, MA25, and MA99 all recovered, clearly showing a return of bullish sentiment.
But note one thing:
A strong rebound does not mean a one-sided rise will start immediately; in the short term, it still depends on sustaining support.
Focus on the 1190-1200 range, which is the previous resistance level; a breakout with increased volume will open further space.
Below, watch support near 1100; if it can hold, this rebound still has a chance to continue; If it falls back below support, it means it is mostly oversold and recovering.
In terms of trading, it's not recommended to jump in immediately after a big rally. Short-term capital competition is fierce, so it's more comfortable to wait for a pullback and confirmation of support before reconsidering.
At present, SK Hynix's move seems more like the first round of recovery after panic releases. Whether it can follow this trend later depends on AI storage demand and funding sustainabilityStarship's successful test flight failed to reverse the downward trend in its stock price. SpaceX continued its downward channel, pulling back nearly 50% from its listing high and fluctuating below its IPO price. Multiple negative factors continue to suppress the market: In the early days of listing, the market overdrew long-term growth expectations for commercial aerospace and AI, assigning extremely high valuations with price-to-sales ratios exceeding 90 times. As capital sentiment cooled, the market began to reassess fundamentals.
The company continues to suffer large losses, with investments in Starship's R&D and AI business eating up a large amount of cash flow; Starlink user growth slows, raising concerns about the growth ceiling for the only profitable segment. Coupled with the upcoming lifting of restricted shares in August, the market has priced in early pressure to expand share supply, with short positions maintaining high levels for a long time. Investment banks have intensively launched derivatives to protect against declines, further amplifying stock price volatility.
Cross-market sentiment is clearly transmitted: Top popular growth stocks continue to weaken, suppressing global risk appetite. Funds actively reduced all positions in highly elastic themes, and volatility in high-beta altcoins and hot themes intensified within the crypto market; ETH is more likely to follow the sentiment of U.S. growth assets; BTC relies on ETFs for continuous capital inflows, and its stored-value attributes are relatively resilient to declines.
In the short term, don't blindly buy the dip and fight for a rebound. This round of decline is a valuation digestion phase, and a single positive factor is unlikely to directly reverse the trend. Contract trading strictly tightens leverage, closely monitoring the unlocking window and Starlink operational data—two key catalysts; Avoid highly volatile products closely linked to popular U.S. growth stocks, and prioritize mainstream stocks with solid liquidity. #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 $SPCX $BNB BNBUSDT current price is 589.5, down slightly 0.25% intraday, with a turnover of 506 million.
The market is highly linked to the overall cryptocurrency market, with overall sideways fluctuations and minimal volatility, with no independent movement. Resistance above is 602, and support below is 580.
Without major positive events, the market is largely cautious and cautious. A narrow volatility range makes it difficult to generate futures trading profits, and fees continuously erode principal, making it more suitable for long-term spot allocation rather than short-term contract trading. #银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated Why do you end up losing money even after buying a good project?
When I first entered the market, I always thought that as long as the project was excellent enough, the price would eventually rise again.
As a result, the research team, technology, ecosystem, and narrative all make more and more logical progress, and the positions become heavier.
Later, I realized: good assets and good deals are not the same thing.
No matter how good a project's fundamentals are, if the valuation at the time of purchase has already been depleted for the next few years, the unlocking chips are still being released, and there is no new off-exchange capital to take over, then so-called long-term value is just a story of mutual comfort among holders in the short term.
The asset can continue to develop, but the price of the coin may drop by 80% first.
Market trading has never been about "whether it's good or not," but about "how much positive the current price has already reflected, and how much better than expectations will be expected in the future."
Everyone knows that excellence is often written into the price; What truly generates profit is when reality ultimately outperforms market expectations.
My biggest mistake before was proving I bought right with fundamentals, but rarely studying chip costs, liquidity, and valuation. When prices drop, I blamed the market for not recognizing the market; when stuck, I talked about long-termism. In the end, the project survived but my account was wiped out.
Only after maturity do you understand: fundamentals determine whether a stock is worth long-term attention, price and odds determine whether it's worth betting now, and if the direction is right but the price is wrong, it can also be a failed trade.
Remember: a good project doesn't mean a good price, and a good price doesn't mean an immediate price increase.South Korean stock market surged 17% in one day! Bottom fishing or chasing highs? How far can this semiconductor rebound go?
Brothers, I woke up this morning and the neighboring South Korean market just exploded!
The KOSPI index surged 17% at one point, Samsung Electronics soared 26%, SK Hynix even crazily jumped 29%, both setting new single-day gain records. The intraday volatility left global traders stunned.
What does this surge mean? Our A-shares limit up is only 10%, but Koreans gave you almost two limit ups in one day. To be blunt, this movement is even more thrilling than altcoin volatility.
What triggered this?
The US stock market lit the fuse first. Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 8%, Micron surged 18%, and even more impressive was Texas Instruments, which soared after its Q1 revenue guidance beat expectations. But the real booster for the Asian market was Microsoft—its cloud business exceeded expectations, and its after-hours stock price surged 15%, marking the largest single-day gain in 18 years.
Once the giants released earnings, the narrative around AI computing infrastructure reignited. These two Korean chip giants, core suppliers of global memory chips and AI semiconductors, were directly pushed to the limit up by capital.
But don’t just get excited; let’s analyze calmly.
Samsung and SK Hynix together account for over half of KOSPI’s market cap weighting. In other words, today’s 17% surge is essentially all Korean investors concentrating their firepower on these two stocks, forcibly pulling the entire index up. This kind of structural surge indicates extremely exuberant market sentiment and concentrated leverage fund buybacks.
They had fallen too much earlier, and shorts were violently squeezed out. This rebound is less about a sudden fundamental turnaround and more about a concentrated release of previously suppressed sentiment.
Now to the key point: Can you chase this rebound?
Conclusion first: Short-term sentiment is bullish, but mid-term depends on fundamentals.
In the short term, US semiconductor sentiment is already ignited; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has formed a reversal pattern, at least showing institutional funds are willing to cover positions here. It’s highly likely Asian markets will follow suit today, so there are definitely intraday short-term opportunities.
But in the mid to long term, it’s still too early to conclude whether this rally is an oversold rebound or a trend reversal. Whether Samsung and SK Hynix’s performance this year can support current valuations depends on whether end demand for memory chips picks up in the second half. After all, AI server demand is strong, but consumer electronics are still sluggish.
Also, the Korean market’s leveraged trading has been extremely volatile these days—down yesterday, then up 17% today—showing the market is being led by leverage. If this trend reverses, the sell-off could be fierce.
So my strategy is clear: You can ride the short-term sentiment wave but control your position size strictly and take profits when you can. If you want to lock in a bigger position, wait for a pullback to confirm support before adding.
The turning point signal for the memory chip industry is not fully confirmed yet. Don’t go all-in just because of one big bullish candle; it’s always wise to keep some bullets in reserve.
Let’s discuss in the comments: Are you following this semiconductor rebound? 👇 #Microsoft's single-day market cap increase nears 450 billion, setting a US stock record
Microsoft's single-day +450 billion USD, I actually dare not follow this AI narrative: US stocks are trading "realization," crypto only trades "reflected illusions"
MSFT rose 15.5% last night, single-day market cap up 450 billion, surpassing NVDA's old record of 440 billion last year, Azure +43%, Copilot paying users exceed 30 million, FY27 capex guidance cut from 190 billion to 175 billion.
The data across the market has all turned bad, I won’t repeat it.
To say something unpleasant:
My view — this Microsoft surge is "emotional blood borrowing" for crypto, not "fundamental blood transfusion."
There are three reasons:
1. Microsoft's 450 billion increase essentially comes from accounting changes + lease standards + AI cloud acceleration combined; underlying it is US institutional money re-evaluating Nasdaq heavyweight stocks, which has nothing to do with on-chain liquidity.
2. Every time crypto tries to "map" US stock AI gains to "our DePIN/Agent should rise too," there is a 3-5 day lag, amplitude doubles, and the pullback is twice as fast as US stocks. Last time on NVDA earnings night it was like this: BTC didn’t move, altcoins spiked then crashed to zero.
3. Now 10Y US Treasury at 4.68%, 30Y over 5.2%, growth stock valuation anchors are loosening. Microsoft can hold on with Azure’s profit margin, what can RNDR/AKASH rely on? GPU idle rates, node counts, TVL? All soft metrics.
So here’s what I’ll do:
• Not chase RNDR TAO $AKASH "AI concept coins" just because MSFT exploded; they are ten layers of market makers away from Microsoft Copilot user numbers.
• If you really want to ride this wave, only look at two hard anchors: whether BTC can recover to previous highs by riding Nasdaq risk appetite, and NVDA/AMD’s sustainability — they are the upstream liquidity sources for crypto, not Microsoft itself.
• Positioning: if US stock AI cloud rally continues, BTC benefits first, ETH second, AI altcoins last and only trade right-side breakouts, no "narrative dip buying."
On Microsoft’s record day, the best buy wasn’t AI altcoins, but not treating US stock earnings as fundamentals in crypto.Originally, during August's monetary policy gap, both U.S. stocks and crypto could have eased their stance. Trump also targeted this gap, leading to another US-Iran conflict. On July 28, Iran acted first, testing US troops stationed in the Middle East with missiles. Non-military activities were also active. The US restarted sanctions on Iranian oil sales, combining economic sanctions with shipping blockades—a combination of a combination of timing. The timing was especially interesting: the Federal Reserve launched an attack the day before the FOMC meeting, driving up oil prices and raising expectations of CPI. Iran is deliberately stalling to give the Fed a hawkish stance or even a reason to raise interest rates To put it bluntly, it's just a way to put eye candy on Trump. Although this is just my personal guess, the timing is so coincidental that it's hard not to think too much. Fortunately, the market is somewhat desensitized to this round of conflict. On July 24, OPEC crude oil peaked near 100 and WTI hit around 73. Today, OPEC crude oil peaked around 90, and WTI peaked around 85. The gains are narrowing, and the market is adapting to the $BTC $ETH $SNDK. The storage sector also rebounded: Hynix returned to 132, Micron to 778, SanDisk back to 1095. Although they are still far from the peak But at least it stopped that round of mindless sell-off. Trump's words and market rhythms are never in sync. Just get used to it. #PCE turns negative month-on-month, GDP growth slows to 1.5%. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price reversed to 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
Amazon's earnings report is a textbook example of "all bad news priced in," and the market logic has completely changed.
Although the Q3 guidance of $197 billion to $202 billion was below expectations, the stock price surged 9%, indicating that everyone simply doesn't care about short-term revenue fluctuations.
The core logic lies in AWS cloud business's record 37% growth and operating profit soaring 64% to $16.6 billion.
This proves that as long as AI-driven cloud demand continues to accelerate, Wall Street is willing to pay for the current massive cash burn.
I see this as a typical "burn and earn" model, which is more attractive than XMSFT's pure cash realization and Meta's pure hype.
Data doesn't lie; the profit margin directly hit 39.4%, and the full-year capital expenditure increase to $220 billion didn't scare away investors.
This contrast shows the market is extremely hungry now; as long as AI can be converted into solid cloud service revenue, it will be wildly chased.
My strategy is, since the market recognizes this "high investment = high growth" logic, to go with the flow.
If you hold shares, I would continue to hold, focusing on whether AWS's growth shows signs of slowing.
If you don't hold shares, consider entering after a stable pullback, since the $220 billion expenditure is the moat for the future.
Don't be scared off by the seemingly disappointing guidance; in the AI era, companies that dare to spend big and can make money are the true kings. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% $SNDK 12-hour highlights
SNDK latest market analysis | 7.31
1. Market Conditions
The current price is $1,279.96, and yesterday it surged nearly 26% in a single day. After hitting a low of $998 the previous day, it experienced a strong oversold recovery.
1. In the past month, the price has pulled back more than 47% from the $2,354 high, which is a bubble withdrawal following the previous surge; This round of rally was driven by a collective recovery in the storage sector, with Micron and SK Hynix both rising more than 16% simultaneously. This is a resonant sector trend rather than an isolated positive driver.
2. On-chain leveraged liquidations have basically been cleared out, panic selling pressure has been phased out, but trading volume remains high, and the divergence between bulls and bears remains significant.
3. The tokenized version trades 24/7 without interruption, with volatility even more intense than the US stock itself. Short-term speculative funds come and go quickly, with frequent shakeouts.
2. The core reasons behind the surge
1. Deeply oversold + technical bottom rebound
Several consecutive days of sharp declines pushed the indicator into an extremely oversold range. After holding the psychological level of $1,000, bottom-fishing funds concentrated in the market, triggering a retaliatory rebound. Short-term panic trading has ended, and the market is entering a window of recovery.
2. The AI storage cycle logic is being picked up by capital again
The market is repricing the rigid demand for AI data centers, with long-term rigid demand for enterprise-grade SSDs and NAND flash memory; Many investment banks remain bullish, with Goldman Sachs even setting a $2,200 target price, indicating that the long-term fundamental logic has not completely failed.
3. Negative news is fully absorbed in the short term
The market previously worried about major manufacturers' capacity expansions and panic over flash memory price drops has been fully priced in after a round of sharp declines. Short-term negative news is now positive.
3. Hard negative factors suppressing the market going forward
1. The August 5th financial report was the biggest ticking time
With only a few days left until the quarterly earnings report, if revenue and performance fall short of expectations, this rebound could easily stall and start a pullback again. Right now, funds are playing on expectations in advance.
2. Heavy selling pressure from massive trapped stocks at high levels
The highest increase this year exceeded 700%, with large amounts of standing chips accumulating in the 1450–1600 and 2350 ranges above. As soon as the price slightly recovers, people will keep breaking even, selling off the market.
3. The Fed's high interest rate environment remains unchanged
Powell's hawkish stance remains, and high-valuation growth stocks have always been suppressed by liquidity, making it difficult for them to sustain a one-sided rally.
4. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support (from near to far)
1. Short-term lifeline: $1000, the lowest point of this round's testing. If it falls below it again, the rebound will be void;
2. Medium-term strong support: $880–$950, the trend divide.
Pressure (from near to far)
1. Short-term primary resistance: $1350;
2. Medium-term trapped zone: $1450–1600;
3. Trend reversal pressure: Historical high above $1900.
5. Simple market forecasting
1. Range-bound oscillation grinding disc (high probability)
Holding the 1000 support level, the price is fluctuating sideways between 1000 and 1450. Everyone is waiting for the August earnings to set the direction, and it's unlikely the rebound will turn into a reversal in one go.
2. Second Bottoming (Bearish Scenario)
Earnings report below expectations + market weakness, falling below the 1000 mark again, continuing to test the 880 support.
3. Restarting the rally (low probability)
Only when earnings data far exceed expectations will funds challenge the heavy trapped zone above. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
PCE turns negative month-on-month, up 3.7% year-on-year: Is this the starting point for cooling inflation, or is it a financial illusion caused by oil prices?
When PCE data came out this evening, many trading groups instantly erupted, filled with cheers of "good news," "rate cuts are solid," and "$BTC is about to fly." Overall, PCE fell 0.1% month-on-month, turning negative, and year-on-year fell to 3.7%. It seems inflation is indeed being tightly suppressed.
But at that moment, staring at the screen, I felt cold sweat break out. These friends shouting good news probably didn't even look up the core data.
This is definitely not the starting point of a cooling inflation trend, but rather a monthly financial illusion forcibly painted by a plunge in crude oil prices.
A brief breakdown of the data reveals the trump cards. In June, WTI crude oil prices experienced a sharp drop, falling from near $90 per barrel at the beginning of the month to around $70 per barrel by the end of the month, losing more than $20. It was precisely this bottom-up in the energy sector that pushed the overall PCE month-on-month into negative territory.
What about the core PCE, which excludes food and energy? In June, core PCE was still up 0.1% month-on-month, holding steadily at a high of 3.3% year-on-year. In other words, behind the oil price crash, underlying inflation—which truly represents wages and real services—shows no sign of compromise.
If inflation really recedes as the data suggests, how could the Fed possibly take such an unwavering stance at yesterday's FOMC decision? Don't forget, yesterday three committee members unexpectedly voted to raise rates, and Wash even publicly emphasized, "This is not a pause." The most data-savvy central bank policymakers are using concrete actions to dampen the market's blind enthusiasm for rate cuts.
From my trading logic, oil prices can't keep plunging endlessly. Currently, the US-Saudi airstrikes and the Strait of Hormuz negotiations are still fiercely engaged, and WTI has strong fundamental support near $70. As long as oil prices stop falling and rebound at $70, the effect of energy on inflation will instantly disappear. By next month, overall PCE will most likely show its true form and turn upward again.
So in terms of positioning, I choose to keep 35% of my cash defense and absolutely won't blindly chase gains at this level. This kind of 'inflation cooling' driven by a single cyclical commodity is highly deceptive. Once you treat it as the starting point of a rate-cutting cycle, you are likely to be swept away by the market when inflation rises again.
Next, I will focus on two specific indicators:
First, whether the 10-year Treasury yield can fall below 4.5%. If capital truly believes inflation is cooling, the bond market will vote on falling yields;
Second, WTI crude oil is fighting around $70. As long as oil prices hold at this level, a rebound in overall inflation is only a matter of time. Data source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
---#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
PCE turning negative + GDP falling short of expectations—how should the market be priced?
⚠️ Personal views exchanged and do not constitute investment advice
In June, PCE turned negative month-on-month, falling to 3.7% year-on-year; The preliminary GDP for the second quarter was 1.5%, missing expectations, but private consumption remained strong.
My judgment: This inflation decline is more of a short-term dividend from falling oil prices, and not a true inflation turning point.
Risks in the Middle East have yet to be resolved; if conflict breaks out again, it will push crude oil prices higher, making it easy for inflation to rebound again. Whether a downward trend can be confirmed depends on the upcoming CPI and wage data.
The entire set of data is fragmented: GDP is weakening, but domestic demand remains resilient.
Inflation has temporarily eased, but strong consumption still gives hawks room to raise rates, and expectations for a rate hike in September will continue to fluctuate.
My trading strategy remains unchanged: take advantage of positive news to push prices higher, and continue to focus on rebounds and shorts.
Only when continuous inflation data continues to decline and domestic demand weakens simultaneously will I readjust my holdings for the second half of the year.
Do you think this PCE decline is the real turning point for inflation, or just a short-term illusion caused by oil price fluctuations? Will this set of data change your trading plans? $BTC
"Don't just criticize HYPE as a platform token; it has turned 'exchange dividends' into an on-chain central bank" $HYPE
Many people still look at it with outdated standards, $HYPE: "It's just a token from an on-chain contract platform, what's the difference from those meme tokens?" ”
The difference is huge.
Traditional exchange tokens: buyback depends on the boss's mood, destruction depends on announcements and performances, income comes from local dogs collecting coin fees.
HYPE: 97%–99% perpetual fees are paid into the Assistance Fund → to buy HYPE at market price →and burn it. It is verifiable on-chain, with cumulative buybacks exceeding $1.1 billion as of July, and a single-year record of $283 million this year; With TVL of 5.8 billion and annual fees of $1.07 billion, HIP-4 has brought in both prediction markets and RWAs, and the spot ETFs 21Shares THYP and Bitwise BHYP have seen daily net inflows into US stocks.
This structure is called "automatic buyback + cancellation" hard currency in US stocks, and in crypto circles it's called a "reflexive monster":
Trading volume ↑ → fees ↑ → buybacks ↑ → price ↑ → trading volume rises again. The positive cycle continued, yet even VC unlocks (9.92 million tokens in May) couldn't break through.
But the seasoned veterans have to pour cold water on this:
Repurchases are not money printing machines, but shadows of trading volume. In a bear market, when contract volume halves, buying stalls;
Spot ETF inflows cooled after June, and institutions are not without unlimited bullets;
$535 for FDV is not cheap; a further break to the previous high of 63 requires a new narrative to take over (Pre-IPO perpetual?) RWA settlement? ）。
So I see HYPE as a hybrid of "on-chain brokerage stocks + buyback ETFs":
If the bottom position does not exceed 10%, when the probe observing liquidity trends—it is relative to the Bitcoin market—it indicates agitated leverage on the chain; If it dies suddenly, it means contract workers are all competing for fees and have no surplus pay.
Don't idolize it, but don't look down on it. If it can stay above 50 this round and connect the Q4 second repo mechanism (USDC reserve interest to buy coins), that would be a true transformation.
Leave room for your position and discretion in judgment. Don't treat HYPE as a savior, and don't treat it as a joke. 🚬
$HYPE 📊 $SNDK contract liquidation express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, be careful not to short, or you'll be pinned down by the dealers...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $98,400
Long orders have zero liquidation
Short liquidations amounted to about $98,400
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $6.6821 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $1.1825 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $5.4997 million
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $14.9854 million
The long position liquidation was about $2.1653 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $12.8201 million
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $23.5275 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $3.5054 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $20.0221 million
From $SNDK liquidation data, short liquidations crush the bulls, with shorts facing continuous large-scale liquidations. The market shows a unilateral extreme short squeeze, with 24-hour short liquidations 5.7 times longer than bulls, and the scale of liquidations expanding step by step. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being liquidated.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 31st
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market rewards are no longer just "money-burning narratives," but "efficiency in spending money"—from internal divisions within the Federal Reserve to the fierce battles between Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is taking shape.
🏛️ The Fed's three votes advocate for rate hikes: internal divisions not seen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with 9 votes in favor and 3 against. Cleveland Fed's Hamack, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan all advocate for a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three votes have been voted in unison. The Dow immediately plunged more than 1,100 points. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to determining whether to act in September.
📈 Microsoft bucks the trend by cutting capital expenditures: rose 8.5% after hours
Microsoft delivered results that exceeded expectations: revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year-on-year; Azure revenue grew 43% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth rate in four years; For the first time, Azure's full-year revenue surpassed $100 billion.
What truly ignited the market was the capital expenditure guidance—a downward revision from the previously expected roughly $190 billion to $175 billion. The stock price surged 8.5% after hours. Against the backdrop of Google's stock price plunging due to Google's increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's revenue hit record but plummeted: the price of AI's money-burning model
Meta released its earnings report the same day: revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly exceeding expectations. However, net profit fell 14% year-on-year to $15.85 billion; the lower limit for capital expenditure was raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow was reduced to $784 million, hitting a nearly four-year low. After hours, the stock price once plunged more than 10%.
That same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," while Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market rewards are no longer "money-burning narratives" but "spending efficiency." Rare internal divisions within the Fed signal that the policy path is no longer certain; Microsoft has sparked a surge in stock price by cutting capital expenditures, signaling that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more sought after than "increased investment"; Meta's revenue hit a record high but plummeted because the market is punishing every narrative that only invests without returns. Old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is taking shape. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
#微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for the US stock market 卧槽，闪迪这一波绝对不是普通反弹，是想直接把空头连人带仓一起抬走啊
$SNDK 单日暴涨约26%，核心不是单一利好，而是AI需求、存储涨价和空头回补同时爆发
首先，微软云业务继续高速增长，资本开支大幅增加，说明科技巨头对AI数据中心的投入没有减速。服务器除了需要GPU，也需要大量高速SSD和NAND闪存，闪迪作为存储龙头，直接吃到资金预期
其次，三星财报释放出明确信号：服务器存储需求强劲、产能依然偏紧，存储价格仍有上涨空间。这证明AI带来的存储缺口正在从题材变成真实订单，市场重新给整个板块估值
最后是技术面的逼空。闪迪此前从高位连续暴跌，悲观情绪已经释放得非常彻底。板块一旦转强，抄底资金进场叠加空单止损，才把反弹放大成昨晚这种暴力拉升
接下来先看1380—1400压力区。放量站稳，后面有机会继续挑战1450—1500；若冲高后跌回1320下方，短线资金大概率开始兑现，价格可能回踩1280—1300重新换手
我的判断是，中期逻辑已经转强，但昨晚涨得太急，追高风险明显，等回踩确认比情绪上头更稳
$MU $SKHYNIX
#美股加密标的承压，币价波动影响财报 #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 #微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录
Sharing my personal unique perspective on why this round of surge holds strong benchmark significance:
Many retail investors at first glance: AI bull market returns again, boldly enter and layout the computing power track. But digging into the financial report details, I believe this is only a structural repair, not the start of a new comprehensive bull market.
1. Two core drivers of this surge
Azure cloud AI commercialization has truly generated revenue; AI is no longer an empty concept. At the same time, capital investment is optimized, controlling ineffective cash burn, and cash flow data has greatly improved. Currently, capital stock-picking logic is straightforward: leaders who can convert AI into revenue enjoy valuation premiums, while companies that only burn money without seeing returns continue to be abandoned by funds. Compared to the previous weakening of Meta, the track polarization is visible to the naked eye.
2. Two hidden potential risks
First, Microsoft's outstanding performance is an individual advantage and cannot represent the entire AI industry's prosperity; many small and medium downstream enterprises still face profitability challenges.
Second, the macro environment has not changed; PCE data still leaves inflation risks, the tail risk of Federal Reserve rate hikes has not been fully cleared, and the liquidity tightening shackles remain.
My practical summary:
Short-term positive news raises overall market risk sentiment and will bring positive support to the crypto market in the short term. But beware of blindly chasing the rally due to the US stock market heat; individual stock celebrations are unlikely to translate into a broad market rise. The upcoming layout strategy is simplified: discard junk themes and focus closely on sectors with actual industry implementation. JPMorgan slashed Coinbase's target price by 30%, from 283 to 196. Mizuho Securities even directly lowered Circle's rating to underperform the market, lowering the target price from 85 to 50. You might not expect that this company, always the most obedient and compliant, regarded as a model for stablecoins, has now become the most pessimistic target on Wall Street. So how did Cirele's business get blocked from both ends?
This issue starts with Hypeeliquid. It's now one of the largest decentralized contract exchanges, with billions of dollars in USDC on the platform. This money is not just sitting idle. Circle and Coinbase use it to buy US Treasury bonds and earn interest. This interest used to be split evenly and half-to-half, with nothing to do with Hypeeliquid. So Hypeeliquid must feel unfair. Why is the money raised on this platform so high? All the interest is earned by you. First, it tried to intercept a stablecoin on its own, but it didn't succeed. In the end, they negotiated a new protocol with Circle and Coinbase, where Coinbase had to return 90% of the interest earned from investing in USDC to Hypeeliquid. The 6 billion USDC currently in Hypeeliquid generates about $160 million in reserve income per year. To put it bluntly, this $160 million used to be in their own pockets, but once the new agreement is signed, the rules of the game change completely. Now, 90% of this interest must be returned to Hypeeliquid. Circle and Coinbase can only keep 10%, so that means they would earn $60 to $80 million less in profit over two years. On the other hand, Hypeeliquid could earn an extra 130 million to 160 million yuan from this single move, and if the scale grows further, it could reach 300 to 500 million yuan in the long term. That's no small sum—it's like someone has taken a huge amount of cash flow. No wonder Hype has risen so much—the so-called Dragon 2 Aster is just like Air Coin.
You might think this is a matter between Circle, Coinbase, and Hypeeliquid, and has nothing to do with us. But actually, that's not the case. What do these platforms earn interest on? It's the USDC we hold and the stablecoin balances we hold on exchanges. To put it bluntly, the pie these institutions grab was originally made from our money. Now their division is getting more and more chaotic, their profits are getting thinner and thinner, and in the end, they probably won't take the blame themselves. Either stablecoin-related wealth management returns have decreased, or the fee withdrawal threshold has quietly increased. The profits fall on the sheep, and in the end, ordinary retail investors still pay the bill. So while this looks like institutions fighting, it actually has something to do with the money we hold. If it were just the hypeeliquid deal, Circle would grit its teeth and endure it. What really panicked Wall Street was that this incident set a bad example. Because Hypeeliquid isn't the only one holding a large amount of stablecoins; platforms like Polymarket have them. Hypeeliquid can squeeze 90% of the profits, so why can't I make the same demand? Will Circle and Coinbase have to give up profits to everyone in the future? No one can afford to offend them. In recent months, USDC's circulating supply has dropped from nearly 80 billion to 73 billion, shrinking by 7 billion in just a few months. The money is indeed flowing out, but the bad news isn't over yet. At the end of June, a tough player emerged: the ousd stablecoin alliance, Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and Coinbase itself—over 140 giants joining forces. This list is huge—half Wall Street and half Silicon Valley joining forces, and the alliance's approach is completely opposite to Circle's. Circle keeps about 38% interest as profit, which is the main way to make money. Ousd gives almost 100% of the interest to the giants promoting it, earning only a small fee for the effort. In other words, it's using its own unprofitable money to make you profit from it, forcibly taking the prize from Circle. The most frustrating part is that Circle's friend Coinbase is also one of Ousd's founding members. The distribution agreement with Circle will be renegotiated this August. Previously, this protocol brought Coinbase over 900 million yuan a year, accounting for more than half of Circle's total revenue, making it its biggest asset. Now, Coinbase holds Hypeeliquid's 90% revenue share precedent and Ousd, a ready-made backup player. Tell me, will they push Circle's price hard during August negotiations? Circle must be overwhelmed.
Mizuho Securities' report calculated this account quite harshly, predicting that by 2027, Circle's spending on channel revenue will rise from 64% to 73%, with profits more than 20% lower than the market's original expectations. Even if Circle grows larger, its valuation multiples will still be lower than similar companies, indicating that market confidence in this money-making model has wavered. Fortunately, Circle is not without a license; in July, it received final approval from U.S. regulators. Being able to open a nationwide digital currency bank is a solid federal license. In the future, managing its reserves will be more assertive, and it won't be so easy for others to mess with its territory. He is still building his own distribution channels, no longer constantly relying on Coinbase to drive traffic. His self-operated ratio has risen from 6% to about 17%. The bigger move is launching its own public chain called Arc. The strategy is clear: you can't rely solely on interest rate spreads to the end; you need new methods like on-chain transfers and fees to make money from multiple channels. Of course, the other side is also direct: these moves won't save performance in the short term. USDC's market value has also shrunk in recent months, and licenses and new public chains are slow remedies. To be honest, stablecoins used to be seen as a safe haven in people's minds—they wouldn't fall even if the sky fell. But today, even legitimate players like Circle have to compete with you for food, and Wall Street collectively snathers them. This industry is far from as calm as it appears; with all kinds of reversals, the bigger the business that seems solid, the fiercer the game behind the scenes. The future returns and even security of the stablecoins you hold may quietly change due to the competition among these giants. You need to pay close attention to these matters and stay vigilant , there's no harm in the end.#aistorydiverges
When I deeply embedded the Luoyang shovel into the Shang and Zhou ruins from three thousand years ago, the humus I brought out carried the exact same bloody smell as today's Silicon Valley financial reports—the alternation of bulls and bears has its historical rhythm, and the rise and fall of empires have always echoed the same rhythm.
Throughout the long history of historical research, vast civilizations often present only two scenes on the eve of the Dynastic Revolution: one is cultivating thousands of acres of fertile fields with sturdy vessels, and the other is the entire nation's wealth piled up into grand yet cold tombs. Last night's performance showdown between the two giants was nothing more than a rehearsal for the digital ruins, replaying this age-old divergence of fate.
Microsoft delivered a quarterly harvest of $90 billion, up 18% year-on-year. Its cloud infrastructure is like a heavy bronze vessel—steady and highly practical, having already harvested the first quarter's heavy wheat in the fertile ground of commerce. It does not need to promise the future to the tribe through ethereal myths, because the inscriptions on bronze ritual vessels have long been filled with the present gold and silver.
In contrast, Meta Zuckerberg resembles a sixteenth-century expedition captain obsessed with searching for the Golden City. While $60.8 billion in revenue is huge, free cash flow has plummeted to a four-year low, and with frenzied capital expenditures ranging from $130 billion to $145 billion, it's tantamount to throwing years of accumulated grain into an incinerator as a sacrifice. Is he building an altar to the divine realm, or constructing a grand burial pit for the algorithmic gods who have yet to descend? Deep within the undercurrents of capital, those sharp-eyed 'Tomb Raiding Officers' on Wall Street had long sensed danger in the foggy guidance, pressing their mechanisms and retreating back to the secret passage.
The same narrative of the intelligent revolution leads to completely different archaeological tombs. One fulfills the oracle on site, while the other uses endless cash flow to forge future antiques. The upcoming earnings reports from Amazon and Apple, released today, will provide more accurate carbon-14 dating data for this grand collapse and reconstruction of civilization.
As cracks in traditional tech empires appear, the secret passage connecting the old order and the on-chain world has been opened. The $XDELL of US stock tokens reflects profound market interactions in the ongoing game — in this never-sleeping archaeological excavation site, tomb raiders and expeditionary forces await the same answer: who is truly mining civilization's iron ore, and who is merely selling mirages in the yellow sand?Yesterday, because the $GRVT Creator Award was announced next door, I chatted with two friends who are also writing content and happened to talk about the latest Babylon project $BABY
I've noticed that some friends may have really been brainwashed by certain KOLs or AI watermarks:
1. I said Babylon's interest rate is too low, and with the partner's lending agreement, the interest rate is less than 1%, so very few people are playing it. He said, "You even picked on the money I gave for free."
But the problem is, it's not free: first, participating in events requires gas fees, and Bitcoin gas round-trip costs tens of U, requiring a lot of money to earn back interest; Second, if I mortgage money to it, there's a risk. If their agreement has a loophole, I'll lose my principal......
2. He believes that DeFi with $BTC will definitely develop: BTC currently has a market cap of 1.3 trillion and could rise to 10 trillion in the future. Even with bank interest, this money would still generate over 100 billion yuan, so there would definitely be projects that could be produced. The project that can make it out of reach is most likely the current leading company, Babylon.
But I think it's a bit of a given. Gold has been coming for 200 years without interest, so we can't assume BTC should have interest. We still need to look deeper to see what kind of infrastructure is mature before BTC DeFi can be developed.
3. Also, Babylon's clients are B2B project teams, and they have to be public chain projects built on a PoS mechanism. This client base is a bit narrow, which limits BABY's development prospects. There aren't many project teams in a bear market; even if there are, there aren't many wealthy ones. Even those with money aren't necessarily those making PoS public chains. It feels like it's hard to make money.The US military just bombed Iran, and Iran immediately retaliated by attacking a US military base, causing oil prices to surge 35% within the month — Old Mo explains why BTC is still holding up
Just sat down to check the market, and the Middle East is on fire again.
On the evening of the 29th, the US military launched a large-scale airstrike on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard command center, missile, and drone facilities. On the night of the 30th, Iran retaliated directly by using drones to attack the US Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, taking out generators and navigation systems. A few hours ago, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard also claimed to have attacked a US base in Jordan, destroying 3 F-35s.
The two sides have completely torn apart their relationship.
Trump told Fox News directly that the US would "strike Iran hard." Iran responded even more fiercely, declaring "full control" over the Strait of Hormuz and continuing the blockade. Iran outright rejected Oman's proposal for joint management of the strait.
The conflict is spreading — an Egyptian port gas ship was bombed, and Saudi Arabia, together with the US military, launched airstrikes on pro-Iranian militias inside Iraq. Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Jordan are all involved now.
Oil prices have taken off.
On July 2nd, Brent crude was hovering around $70, and by the 23rd it surged intraday to $102. The cumulative increase since July is 35.65%. On the 29th alone, it rose more than 8%. I checked the data, and the cumulative increase over the past two weeks has exceeded 20%. Goldman Sachs says in extreme cases it could reach $120; Wood Mackenzie is even more aggressive, saying if the strait is blocked, prices will hit $100+, with extremes reaching $120-150. Some institutions believe an $80-100 range is the most probable.
With oil prices rising like this, I don't need to say much about the impact on inflation expectations.
Old Mo returns to the market.
According to CoinMarketCap data, BTC's latest price is 64809, up 1.87% in 24 hours. ETH is at 1919, up 1.22%. Some sources report BTC at 64806 and ETH at 1924. Price differences of several tens of dollars across platforms are normal; Old Mo takes a composite range.
BTC is currently oscillating between 64500-65000, having risen for three consecutive days. Yesterday it dipped to a low of 63269 but was pulled back strongly. Resistance is at 65500-66000, with a breakout target of 67000; support is at 64000-63500, with a break below looking at 62500.
ETH support is at 1880-1900, with resistance at 1950-1960.
Coinbase fell 5.5%, Circle dropped 6.9% — US crypto stocks are down, but BTC and ETH are up. What does this mean? Geopolitical risks are pushing up inflation expectations, which in turn are driving the "devaluation trade" logic — capital is flowing into hard assets.
Old Mo speaks frankly.
A 35% rise in oil prices within a month is a big deal at any time in history. But the current situation is — geopolitical risks push oil prices up → inflation expectations heat up → capital seeks inflation-hedged assets. BTC hasn't crashed with risk assets this round; instead, it is following the same logic as gold.
But one thing to think about: if oil prices stay above $100, can the Fed really remain on hold? The July rate decision is coming soon, and that is the biggest variable.
In terms of trading: wait for BTC to pull back and stabilize around 64000-64300 before buying; for ETH, wait for signals around 1880-1900. Set stop losses properly; don't hold losing positions. Chasing highs at 65000 is not cost-effective; it's safer to wait for a confirmed pullback.
How far do you think this US-Iran conflict will go? Let's discuss in the comments.
If you think Old Mo makes sense, please like and follow. I'll alert you immediately when key levels are reached. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美伊报复循环加速，油价月内累涨20% 📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Update (July 31)
Based on liquidation data, shorts be careful, the dog whales are grinding you down...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $901,300
Long liquidations about $809,500
Short liquidations about $91,900
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $9,095,000
Long liquidations about $5,300,300
Short liquidations about $3,794,700
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $15,845,000
Long liquidations about $6,078,200
Short liquidations about $9,766,900
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $25,796,300
Long liquidations about $8,976,600
Short liquidations about $16,819,700
From $ETH liquidation data, long liquidations dominate in the 1-4 hour window, triggering a fierce short squeeze; from 12 hours onward, short liquidations overwhelm longs, reversing the trend and escalating the short squeeze, with 24-hour short liquidations 1.87 times that of longs. Everyone manage your positions well, don’t get liquidated.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but rather the "efficiency of spending"—from the Fed's internal split to the contrasting fortunes of Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is emerging.
🏛️ Fed's three votes for rate hike: a split unseen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Cleveland Fed's Harker, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan voted for a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The Dow plunged over 1100 points immediately. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to judging whether action will be taken in September.
📈 Microsoft cuts capital expenditure against the trend: after-hours up 8.5%
Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results: revenue $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue up 43% year-over-year, the fastest growth in four years; annual Azure revenue surpasses $100 billion for the first time.
What really ignited the market was the capex guidance—revised down from about $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google's stock plummeting due to increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's record revenue but plummeting stock: the cost of AI money burning
Meta reported on the same day: revenue $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. But net profit fell 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion; capex floor raised from $12.5 billion to $13 billion; free cash flow only $784 million, a nearly four-year low. After-hours stock once plunged over 10%.
On the same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but the "efficiency of spending." The rare Fed internal split signals policy path uncertainty; Microsoft’s capex cut triggered a stock surge, signaling that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more favored than "increasing spending"; Meta’s record revenue but stock plunge shows the market punishes narratives with input but no return. The old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
#微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 $BTC Short-term macro pressures have marginally eased, core PCE turned negative month-on-month for the first time since 2020, with year-on-year growth of 3.2%-3.3% in line with expectations, and signs of an inflation turning point have begun to appear. GDP slowed to 1.5%, but domestic private final sales grew by 3.9%. Domestic demand has not slowed down, the urgency for Fed rate hikes has diminished, and there is no urgent justification for rate cuts. About 63% of rate hikes in September are pricing in need of recalibration. Previously, risk appetite was suppressed by oil prices breaking 100 and geopolitical shocks, but now a decent easing window has been secured, and the market is pricing in. Expiration condition: If U.S. Treasury yields rebound rapidly or next week's non-farm payrolls beat expectations, this window can close at any time.
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #美股加密标的承压, coin price volatility affects earnings #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, but stock price rises 9%Why did SK Hynix suddenly surge? My 908.37 long order is planned to be handled like this
I'm Ci Ge.
I've been holding long positions at 908.37 ever since, and this wave has finally seen a decent rally, with the floating profit getting thicker. Many people ask why the sudden surge today is mainly due to several positive factors coordinating simultaneously.
First, the chairman personally steps in to buy stocks.
SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won personally bought SK Hynix for the first time, purchasing a total of 3,620 shares for about 4.8 billion KRW.
This is also his first direct holding of SK Hynix stock; previously, he had always held shares indirectly through SK Square.
After the stock price adjusted steadily from a high point, the actual controller personally bought in, which significantly boosted market sentiment. After the news broke, the stock price quickly reversed from a decline to a rise.
Second, the entire storage sector rebounded collectively.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index surged, with Micron, Western Digital, SanDisk, Seagate, and other storage industry chains strengthening collectively, and capital flowing back into AI hardware.
When sectors resonate, leaders often benefit first.
Third, Microsoft's earnings report reignited the AI logic.
Microsoft's latest earnings report exceeded market expectations, and Azure's cloud business continues to grow rapidly.
Although the capital expenditure guidance has been adjusted, the market interprets it as "higher investment efficiency, not weaker demand."
AI demand has not cooled, and HBM and storage, as core beneficiaries, have naturally regained capital attention.
Fourth, institutions continue to raise expectations.
Multiple institutions have raised their target prices, and Goldman Sachs recently emphasized again that traditional DRAM prices are expected to maintain double-digit growth this year, while HBM will remain in short supply in the future.
The market has resumed trading AI long-term logic, rather than short-term sentiment.
⸻
How should I handle my long order preparation?
I won't sell the entire 908.37 order at once.
My plan is still to take profits in batches:
* Tier 1: Cashing out 20% near 1100-1150, locking in part of the profit first.
* Second tier: Reduce position by another 25% near 1200-1250.
* Third tier: Continue cashing out 25% near 1350-1400.
* Leave 30%. If the market can continue, leave it for above 1500.
At the same time, I will continue to raise my stop-loss points.
Every time the price rises, raise the stop-loss upward, trying to keep profits moving with the market, rather than just taking the elevator and giving it all back.
If a normal pullback occurs later but the key support is not broken, I will consider continuing to hold rather than selling trend orders early just because of one or two bearish candles.
Often, the real profits from major market events aren't opening positions, but holding onto them.
This order is no exception.
The above is only my trading record and personal approach, and does not constitute any investment advice.
$SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH I finally understand what lit the fire under SK hynix today.
I opened the chart expecting just another relief bounce, then that monster green candle showed up. No cap, one headline alone doesn’t create a move like that. This rally looked more like several bullish catalysts lining up at the same time.
The first trigger was hard to ignore. Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Group, personally bought 3,620 shares of SK hynix on July 30, worth roughly 4.8 billion KRW. That’s a pretty meaningful signal because he’d never held the stock directly before, only through SK Square. After the stock had fallen from around 2.18 million KRW to 1.32 million KRW, seeing the chairman step in gave the market a fresh dose of confidence.
Then the entire memory sector squeezed higher together. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped more than 7%, while names like SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, Micron, and SK hynix all rallied sharply. That’s the kind of sector rotation I pay attention to because it’s usually driven by more than retail excitement.
Btw, Microsoft’s earnings added another boost. Azure kept growing at an impressive pace, annual cloud revenue crossed the $100 billion mark, and stronger profitability helped calm fears that AI infrastructure spending was rolling over. On top of that, bullish research from major institutions and expectations for stronger DRAM pricing and HBM demand next year gave investors even more reasons to stay constructive.
As for my position, my average entry is around 908.37, and I’m sitting on a solid unrealized gain. I’m not trying to guess the exact top. My plan is to scale out gradually into strength instead of closing everything at once, while continuing to trail my stop higher to protect what the market has already given me. If price pulls back without breaking my risk level, I’ll reassess instead of reacting emotionally.
One lesson this trade keeps teaching me: catching a big trend is only half the job. Managing the exit without giving back months of profit is where the real game begins.
$SKHYNIX $ETH $BTC
#PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5% ETH at $1,916, a zone where selling pressure and whale accumulation overlap
If the $1,892 support level is broken, it could fall to $1,880, so why are there both oversold signals and whale buying at the same time?
The key data confirmed in the original text are as follows. ETH is down 0.09% from 24 hours to $1,916.34, with a high of $1,936.33 and a low of $1,892.65. Technical indicators maintain a bearish structure. The price is below the EMA5 (1,919.81), EMA10 (1,921.63), and EMA20 (1,922.11), with SAR resistance at $1,934.75. The MACD widened its negative range at -2.00, and the RSI 6 is at 31.67, approaching oversold conditions. KDJ confirmed weakness as K (24.92) fell below D (35.98). Trading volume was substantial at 2.46 million ETH and 4.72 billion USDT. On the other hand, there are also observations that whales have built positions in WBTC and ETH worth $184 million during the same period.
What this structure means is that the market is simultaneously reflecting two different signals in the price. First, technical supply and demand favor selling. Prices traded below the EMA and SAR indicate no short-term buying forces, and declines accompanied by volume increase the likelihood of actual selling rather than liquidation or stop-losses. Second, whale accumulation signals suggest that mid- to long-term funds are viewing the current price range as a buying zone. These two signals operate on different time axes. Short-term positions follow declines, while long-term positions are bought in installments.
The path this flow takes to BTC and altcoins is clear. If ETH holds above $1,892, the altcoin can maintain expectations of a bottom, but if this support breaks, the flow of funds into BTC could accelerate. In fact, the distinction between the 8 stocks of interest mentioned in the original text (SOL, KAITO, ZAMA, SOON, ALLO, ZEC, XAU) and 92 delayed stocks means that funds are selectively allocated to specific themes. This is a typical pattern where funds concentrate on defensive assets and a few momentum stocks during periods of reduced market liquidity.
There are two conditions for an upward scenario. First, ETH needs to recover to $1,934.75 (SAR). In this case, the short-term bearish structure could be broken, and it could test between $1,950 and $1,960. Second, for whale accumulation to lead to a real price rebound, the $1,892 support level must be held. As long as this support holds,It's been a long time since I wrote a daily report. The market data is so bad I can't even save up a whole issue. Today, I'm saving up and writing about it, divided into secondary levels, on-chain issues, and stocks
Level 2
$bank: The net has already closed. I started from 0.06 and was screaming, the high was about 0.6, then dropped to 0.13 and felt it didn't finish moving, then went back to 0.29, last night it dropped to 0.05, now it's 0.07, trading volume is much lower, and now it's net outflow. This round should be over.
$koma: The channel posted the day before yesterday. Every time I shout 'Dealer,' they start selling. This time I didn't shout on Twitter, so I really stuck with it a bit longer. Also, last night I noticed the borrowing interest rate at Xiao Suo is especially high, which is a bit abnormal. It must be that the Major Seller got involved. Let's see if they can hold on longer this time. The current rate is still positive, and there have been some short positions so far, but not many.
$grvt: Just as I guessed, there were few retail investors, and all the opening was just selling goods. Today it pulled up a bit, but it feels like the window has passed. If you want to play now, the cost is even higher.
On-chain
$Marcoin: High-tech stock meme, maybe this sector is opening. Of course, we only guess when it hits Alpha. Others might already know—yesterday's high was 40m, and at this rate, it definitely won't fall. There's a prediction that CZ will buy, but if CZ doesn't buy for days, it probably won't hold out either
$mame: Meme, which no positive news can reach, is slowly rising; the community is still too strong
Stocks
Yesterday I saw that Unitree is going to go up in August, and I figured Changxin might fall, but today Changxin surged, so I still don't know how to play stocks...
Micron SanDisk has seen single-day gains of 2-30%, with price changes catching up with knockoffs, while only $spcx is still holding up.
#美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain? 📊 $DOGE Contract Liquidation Express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, short sellers be careful, the DOGE whales are grinding you down...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $148,500
Long position liquidations about $148,500
Short position liquidations are 0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $420,500
Long position liquidations about $413,100
Short position liquidations about $7,446.30
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $451,700
Long position liquidations about $422,000
Short position liquidations about $29,800
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $596,900
Long position liquidations about $484,300
Short position liquidations about $112,600
From the $DOGE liquidation data, long position liquidations overwhelmingly surpass short position liquidations, with shorts showing almost zero resistance throughout, indicating an extremely one-sided long liquidation market. The 24-hour long liquidations are 4.3 times that of shorts. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid liquidation.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but rather the "efficiency of spending" — from the Fed's internal split to the contrasting fortunes of Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is emerging.
🏛️ Fed's three votes for rate hike: a division unseen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Cleveland Fed's Harker, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan voted for a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The Dow immediately plunged over 1100 points. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to judging whether action will be taken in September.
📈 Microsoft cuts capital expenditure against the trend: after-hours up 8.5%
Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results: revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue up 43% year-over-year, the fastest growth in four years; annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time.
What really ignited the market was the capital expenditure guidance — lowered from the previous estimate of about $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock price surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google's stock plummeting due to increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's record revenue but plummeting stock: the cost of AI money burn
Meta reported on the same day: revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. But net profit fell 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion; capital expenditure floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow only $784 million, a nearly four-year low. After-hours stock price once plunged over 10%.
On the same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," while Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but the "efficiency of spending." The rare internal split at the Fed signals policy path uncertainty; Microsoft’s capital expenditure cut leading to a stock surge signals that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more favored than "increasing investment"; Meta’s record revenue but stock plunge shows the market punishing narratives with input but no return. The old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 Bro, last night the US stock market and crypto stocks surged collectively. Do you think it's a "bull comeback and quick return"? Don't rush, let's first look at how many "smiles hide daggers" behind this bullish candlestick.
---
1. Wash's "anti-inflation talk" is once again "talking big," causing the market to flip the table
Last night, the Fed held steady, and at Walsh's press conference, he was aggressive—hinting that "long-term rates have already raised rates for us." The market immediately understood the underlying message: Are you chickening out?
As a result, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to 5.24%, the highest since 2007. Wall Street banks directly criticized: JPMorgan headlines "Empty talk is useless," Bank of America said it was "confused by dovish stances," and Morgan Stanley bluntly pointed out "damage to credibility."
Walsh's logic can be translated into plain language: "I feel the market has tightened for me, so I won't add more." The market replied, "Alright, I'll show you immediately." "—The more you stay→ the more long-term end surges→ the tighter the financial conditions→ the less you dare to act, a perfect closed loop, and a dead end.
Even more impressively, JPMorgan has moved up its first rate hike forecast to December, with Bank of America saying "rebuilding credibility requires a rate hike in September." Currently, CME FedWatch shows about a 57% probability of a rate hike in September.
2. Market Trends: Tech stocks are on a frenzy, BTC has caught a ride
Last night, the US AI sector surged—Microsoft surged 15%, marking its largest single-day gain in 18 years. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 8%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.4%, marking the third largest gain of the year. BTC also benefited, briefly breaking through $65,000 and rising about 2% intraday.
But how much of this rebound is "genuine buying," and how much is "short sellers forced to close their positions"? My own product.
On the data side, focus on two key positions:
· $61,524: If BTC falls below this level, the cumulative long liquidation strength of mainstream CEXs will reach $1.325 billion, meaning that if it cascades, the corpses will cover the entire OKX.
· $67,712: If this is broken, short liquidation strength will reach $1.071 billion, and the bears will immediately rise from the spot.
Right now, BTC is fluctuating around 64,400, with $3,000 each up and down, which is the switch for two "liquidation feasts"—both sides are a mine, so it depends on which side you stand on.
3. The New Normal of the Washer Era: Guess Guess
Fidelity International put it bluntly: under the "no guidance" policy of Wash, market expectations for policy paths will frequently adjust, and interest rates and asset prices will fluctuate more easily with data—this will become the new normal in the Wash era.
Plain language translation: From now on, don't expect the Fed to make empty promises for you. Guess for yourself, and if you guess wrong, don't blame me for not warning you.
🎯 Today's order suggestion (for entertainment only, if you lose money, don't contact me)
· Long positions: If the 63,800-64,000 level is pulled back and doesn't break through, light positions and test long, stop loss below 63,200, target 65,000 first, then 65,500-66,000. Remember—below 63k, it's a bullish graveyard. If it falls below 61.5k, it's a $1.3 billion liquidation waterfall. Don't go against the liquidation board.
· Short traders: Rebounding to the 65,000-65,200 range is under pressure. You can try short positions lightly, set stop-loss above 65,600, and target 64,000-63,800. If one day it really breaks 67.7k—admit defeat and stop your losses, don't go head-to-head with the 1 billion short liquidation chart.
· Zen-style players: This market is full of spoilers, no shame in watching the show from an empty position. Wait until the direction is clear before entering; it's a hundred times better than being recovered and cut during a consolidation.
In short: the US stock market frenzy is "someone else's bull market"; BTC is just riding the wave. Walsh's "credit deficit" remains unresolved, and the September rate hike is still hanging in the balance. Control your position well, don't chase highs with FOMO, and don't panic and cut losses—survival is more important than anything.
💬 Interactive topic: Will BTC first hit 65k tonight or pull back to 63k? Leave your direction in the comments, and come back tomorrow to see who gets proven wrong. 👇
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours Newly released data: Core PCE turned negative month-on-month, year-on-year 3.2% in line with expectations, but the month-on-month reading showed a turning point. Combined with GDP growth slowing to 1.5%, lower than before, this is a very risk-friendly portfolio. Inflationary pressures are marginally easing, the economy is still growing, just not as hot as before. This data is stuck at the Fed's most difficult position. Those wanting to raise rates can't find enough reasons, and those wanting to cut rates are hesitant to act. For crypto, this is the clearest signal in recent weeks: macro uncertainty is starting to swing in a favorable direction Previously, oil prices breaking 100 and the US-Iran conflict scared the market considerably. Now, there is finally a decent signal of easing. The market is already pricing in. Watch how US Treasury yields and the US dollar index will follow up. This data gives the market a breathing room. As for how long it can breathe, let's see how the non-farm payrolls will buy $BTC next week. $ETH #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance missed expectations, but the stock price reversed to rise 9% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期, with a sharp drop in after-hours trading BTC, ETH, and SOL all recorded modest to moderate rebounds today, with BTC returning to around $65,000. But what's even more noteworthy is that the 24-hour trading volumes of all three have both declined compared to the previous day: prices are recovering, but participation strength has not kept pace. This combination is usually not directly translated as "trend reversed," but rather as a technical rebound after a pause in macro pressure. The Fed kept the interest rate band unchanged this week, but three votes against rate hikes appeared in the decision. A pause does not mean a shift to easing; the market still needs to maintain risk premiums for inflation, energy, and interest rate paths. For crypto assets, what truly matters is not a single day of profit, but whether subsequent capital can continue to flow in, whether trading volume can amplify, and whether BTC's stability can drive broader risk appetite. The discussion in the X community has gradually shifted from "whether to rebound" to whether ETF capital flows and volume can sustain. This is a healthier question: don't just focus on the price endpoint; first check if the funds driving the price remain behind. Key points: 1) BTC rose about 2.1% in 24 hours, ETH and SOL also rose, but all are real-time snapshots. 2) The 24-hour trading volumes of BTC, ETH, and SOL dropped by about 4.4%, 29.6%, and 20.2%, respectively, compared to the previous day. 3) The Fed maintained the 3.50%–3.75% interest rate range, with a 9:3 vote, and three members favored a rate hike. Risk warning: Crypto assets fluctuate significantly, with macro, liquidity, and policy expectations changing rapidly; This article#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
Major US macroeconomic data released simultaneously: the June PCE price index turned negative month-on-month, and the annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter fell to 1.5%, significantly below market expectations.
As the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, overall PCE declined month-on-month, easing short-term inflationary pressures, but core PCE remains elevated, still far from the 2% inflation target. This inflation pullback has largely benefited from a phased drop in oil prices, which is driven by external factors and its sustainability is questionable.
Economic signals are also subtle: GDP growth is cooling and growth momentum is weakening, but household consumption and corporate investment remain resilient and have not entered a recession.
This combination of "slight cooling inflation + economic slowdown" has put the Fed in a dilemma:
On one hand, the data weakens the urgency of an immediate rate hike in September; On the other hand, core inflation remains stubborn, making it difficult for the Fed to switch to rate cuts, and expectations that high interest rates will persist longer cannot be completely dispelled. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Asset Differentiation: US Treasury yields are under short-term pressure, while growth assets are entering a window of sentiment recovery; But one should not be overly optimistic. If the Middle East situation stirs up oil prices again, inflation is likely to rebound again, and policy expectations will fluctuate rapidly.
Short-term markets tend to fluctuate repeatedly; avoid one-sided bets and continuously track subsequent employment and price data to confirm trends.The Fed won't raise rates, but remains hawkish throughout.
July FOMC meeting to be held: interest rates remain unchanged
It seems positive, but in reality, it hides significant risks!
This vote saw a rare 9:3 split, with three members insisting on raising interest rates
This is the most hawkish non-interest ⚠️ rate hike in recent years
Plain translation:
✅ Short-term: No black swan rate hikes, BTC is entering a window for recovery and rebound
❌ Medium to long-term: The high interest rate cycle continues, and rate cut expectations keep being delayed
In a high interest rate environment, BTC, as a non-interest-bearing risk asset, finds it difficult to exit a major bull market, with upward pressure firmly suppressing $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
$XMETA $XAMZN $XMSFT
All three are giants: Microsoft started with operating system (OS) backward office software, servers, and other core business cloud services, but mainly focuses on enterprise services (B2B)
Meta, founded by Mark Zuckerberg and formerly known as Facebook, was renamed in 2021. It owns a family of social apps including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads, as well as Reality Labs (a VR/AR metaverse business) that mainly charges advertisers on a B2C advertising platform. AI is currently primarily used to improve ad recommendation efficiency
amzn, on the other hand, has grown from an online book store to a giant spanning e-commerce, cloud computing, digital advertising, and streaming services
Looking at these three companies, I personally think they are all good companies, so let's first look at their historical stock price performance
In the long term (10-20) years
Amazon is roughly equal to Microsoft > Meta
Amazon Microsoft (MSFT) Meta (META)
20 years total return
12,562% 2,537% were listed later than 2006
10-year total return
555% and 811% have been on the market for a short time
Mid-term Dimensions (3-5 years)
Meta has the greatest resilience and the greatest volatility
Amazon Microsoft (MSFT) Meta (META)
5-year total return
33%-41% 56%-78% 68%-95%
Total return over 3 years
79%-88% 20%-32% 100%-144%
Short-term (since this year)
Amazon Microsoft (MSFT) Meta (META)
Year-to-date
+0.85% -11% to -19% -3.7% to -14.4%
Amazon is relatively resilient to declines, while Meta and Microsoft are under pressure
First, all three companies have hit record highs in operating cash flow, at historic highs
But free cash flow is different
From Microsoft's perspective, although free cash flow has declined, it still maintains a positive cash flow of about $70 billion+ annually, making it the most stable.
For Amazon, operating cash flow hit a record high of $161.4 billion, but capital expenditures ($169 billion) exceeded operating cash flow, causing free cash flow to turn negative.
For Meta, Q2 free cash flow was only $784 million, a year-on-year plunge of 91%, hitting a nearly four-year low. Q2 capital expenditure was $31.08 billion, consuming 97.5% of operating cash flow.
Among these three, Microsoft is the most stable and suitable for investment during pullbacks (such as sudden geopolitical events).
Amazon, on the other hand, is more aggressive in making money while burning cash, achieving high operating cash flow. Personally, I think there are certain risks—not that Amazon is bad, just that capital expenditures keep expanding and income rises. But when the pace of burning cash gradually outpaces the rate of making money, it may become unsustainable
For Meta, despite the market downturn, Meta owns a large number of social platforms and relatively low valuations, especially after risks and bubbles have been fully released
It's still worth buying, similar to SOL in crypto, and from the perspective of potential future growth
Microsoft is relatively stable, Meta has venture capital, and Amazon can be reasonably positioned after risk release
@OKX Chinese: @OKX Planet @Baxi Zora_OKX @Cola Cola_OKX @Yanyan Eleven_OKX 📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, be careful not to short, or you'll be pinned down by the dealers...
The amount liquidated in the past hour was approximately $3.349 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $3.3248 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $24,100
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $23.7547 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $8.304 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $15.45 million
The amount of liquidation in the past 12 hours was approximately $27.1384 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $8.933 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $18.2053 million
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $45.4761 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $11.5065 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $33.9696 million
According to $BTC liquidation data, within 4-24 hours, short liquidations crush the longs, with shorts facing continuous large-scale liquidations. The market shows a unilateral extreme short squeeze, with 24-hour short liquidations at 2.95 times the number of long positions. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being liquidated.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market rewards are no longer just "money-burning narratives," but "efficiency in spending money"—from internal divisions within the Federal Reserve to the fierce battles between Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is taking shape.
🏛️ The Fed's three votes advocate for rate hikes: internal divisions not seen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with 9 votes in favor and 3 against. Hamack of the Cleveland Fed, Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed, and Logan of the Dallas Fed advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. This was the first time since 2016 that three votes in the same direction had appeared. The Dow immediately plunged more than 1,100 points. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to determining whether to act in September.
📈 Microsoft bucks the trend by cutting capital expenditures: rose 8.5% after hours
Microsoft delivered a performance that exceeded expectations: revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue grew 43% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in four years; For the first time, Azure revenue for the year surpassed $100 billion.
What truly ignited the market was the capital expenditure guidance—lowered from the previously expected roughly $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock price surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google's stock price plunging due to the increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's revenue hit record but plummeted: the price of AI's money-burning model
Meta released its earnings report the same day: revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. However, net profit fell 14% year-on-year to $15.85 billion; the lower limit for capital expenditure was raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow was reduced to $784 million, hitting a nearly four-year low. In after-hours trading, the stock price once plunged more than 10%.
That same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," while Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market's reward is no longer the "money-burning narrative," but the "efficiency of spending money." Rare internal divisions within the Federal Reserve signal that the policy path is no longer certain; Microsoft traded capital spending cuts for a stock price surge, announcing that AI investment "cost reduction" is more sought after than "increased investment"; Meta's revenue hit a record high but plummeted because the market is punishing all narratives that only invest without returns. The old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is taking shape. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5%
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours Last night, both Apple and Amazon released their earnings reports. I'll discuss them based on the key points I was most focused on earlier.
First, Apple.
Apple's revenue this quarter was $109.4 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase; net profit was $29.8 billion, up 27% year-over-year. Both revenue and profit exceeded market expectations.
iPhone and Mac performed well, and the services business continued to hit new highs, though revenue from Greater China was still slightly below market expectations.
But what I really care about isn't these figures.
First, the AI strategy hasn't changed much.
Second, Apple Intelligence has already started to be implemented, but Apple still hasn't released the data the market most wants to see, such as user adoption rates, whether it drives device upgrades, and how it will be monetized in the future.
Third, there was no clear signal of AI-related acquisitions, partnerships, or further increased AI investment.
So my view remains unchanged.
Apple has proven its core business remains very strong, but AI has not yet become the next growth curve.
Now, about Amazon.
Amazon's revenue this quarter was $200.6 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase.
AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in nearly 18 quarters.
Operating profit was $27.5 billion, continuing to set a new historical high.
Net profit was $62.6 billion, but this needs to be looked at carefully.
The $62.6 billion net profit does not mean the core business suddenly earned that much.
Most of it came from investment gains due to the fair value increase of Amazon's stake in Anthropic.
The true reflection of the core business's profitability is the $27.5 billion operating profit and AWS's 37% growth.
Another point worth noting is capital expenditure.
Management continues to increase investment in AI infrastructure and clearly stated that the biggest current constraint is still not demand but capacity.
This also explains why free cash flow continues to be under pressure—not because the business is deteriorating, but because the company chooses to keep investing in data centers, GPUs, and AI infrastructure.
Therefore, I believe the real positives in Amazon's earnings report are not the $62.6 billion net profit but three other things:
First, AWS's growth is accelerating, indicating strong ongoing demand for AI computing power.
Second, operating profit continues to grow, showing that AI investments are beginning to pay off operationally.
Third, management has not cut capital expenditure but instead continues to increase AI infrastructure investment.
This indicates that, at least from Amazon's perspective, AI demand is far from peaking.