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Brent oil fell more than 5% overnight, US stock futures rebounded collectively, and $ETH rose to $1,944—the Middle East situation has temporarily cooled, and the market finally dares to breathe. Last Friday, US stocks remained divided: the Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P closed flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%; The Nasdaq fell 2.1% for the week. High AI investment, oil prices, and the 4.69% 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continue to suppress tech stock valuations. This morning, the tide suddenly reversed. The US and Iran resumed contact and paused further attacks, causing Brent crude to fall from last week's breakthrough above $100 to around $87; Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1.2%, and the Nikkei 225 opened up 0.4%. Funds are trading to cool down geopolitical risks, but negotiations have yet to materialize, and this recovery could be interrupted by new news at any time. The crypto market performed stronger: $BTC around $65,150, up 1.5% in 24 hours; $ETH Around $1944, up 4.2%, ETH/BTC climbed to 0.02985. Although BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows of $240 million and $70.7 million respectively last Friday, the price did not continue to fall, indicating that the weekend selling pressure was absorbed by spot funds. Today, we first see if ETH can hold above $1935 and break through $2000, while BTC needs to break through $65,500 to open up space. This week, the Fed meeting and earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft, $META, and Amazon are intense; the oil price dip is only the first hurdle; interest rates and AI capital spending are the tough battles ahead. Risk warning: Geopolitical negotiations are still up and down,$BTC BTC 🔥 **$65,170**, just broke below $65,000 this morning, rising **+1.5%** intraday, following macro sentiment
📊 To be honest, the technical side isn't looking good—a **death cross** has formed, and the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, which is a classic bearish signal. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to **28**, the lowest this month. However, an RSI of 62 is not considered overheated, and the MACD is compressed near the zero axis, a typical "equi-directional" state.
🛡️ Key level: $63,800 is the consensus lifeline among analysts—Ali Charts says holding here can push it to $67,000; if it breaks, go straight to $60,000. $62,000 is stronger support, and $68,000 is resistance above.
💸 On the ETF side—last week's net inflow was only **$33.8 million**, the weakest week since the correction. In the first three days, I made $499 million, and on Thursday and Friday, I ran **$465 million**, almost giving up the whole week's food. BlackRock's IBIT had a weekly net outflow of **$95.5 million**. By 2026, cumulative BTC ETF net outflows will be **$5.23 billion**. Meanwhile, ETH ETFs have outperformed BTC for two consecutive weeks, with ETH ETFs entering $338 million versus BTC $234 million in July. Institutions are quietly switching positions, not a broadly bullish outlook. [Source: Cryptopolitan] (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bitcoin-etf-volume-lowest-since-2024/)
🌍 On the macro side—**Tomorrow is the Federal Reserve meeting on 7/28-29**, which is the biggest variable this week. Oil prices plunged 6.3% in two days, Trump halted airstrikes on Iran, and the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire is 75%. Meanwhile, gold surged to $4,100/oz, and U.S. Treasury yields are falling. All risk assets are priced in as "war cools down + the Fed may lean dovish."
⚠️ But don't be too optimistic—the war is paused, not over; the Strait of Hormuz is not yet open, and the Houthis are still fighting. Moreover, the sharp drop in oil prices itself shows that the market is pricing in recession expectations, not just pure good news.
🎯 Summary: BTC is currently in the $63,800-$68,000 range, with no direction. Tomorrow's FOMC will be the catalyst—dovish signals can push the price above $68,000 to $72,000; the hawkish side will break through $63,800 and target $60,000. ETF data shows institutions currently have no faith; ETH is more favored than BTC. Don't chase in the short term; wait for FOMC to give guidance. $62,000-63,800 is the bottom-fishing zone, and follow after a volume breakout at $68,000.According to 3 trillion, Changxin is indeed not expensive, with a PE of only 25 and a circulating market value of 200 billion.
If you compare it with tech stocks in the A-share market, most of them are more expensive than this.
Moreover, the unlocking period for this is super long, so it has a low circulating market value for a long time.
However, the opening chips of this are too scattered, with too many retail investors winning new shares. Scattered chips create a demand for short-term shakeouts.
Compared to SpaceX, it's not expensive. The trading volume of US stocks is about 2.5-3 times that of A-shares, and A-shares have more retail investors with more emotional volatility. SpaceX has already been driven up.
But SpaceX's opening chips are largely institutional.
Comparing with SMIC, with an opening circulating market value of 100 billion and a PE over 100, it's also not expensive. SMIC had a small rise a few days after opening, then kept falling.📊 $OKB 爆仓速览
爆仓规模
· 1小时：$99.91
· 4小时：$2,872.17
· 12小时：$2,872.17
· 24小时：$3,030.23
多空分布
周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比
1h $0 $99.91 0%
4h $2,772.26 $99.91 96.5%
12h $2,772.26 $99.91 96.5%
24h $2,772.26 $257.97 91.5%
多空解读
1小时空头爆仓$99.91、多头为0，但规模极小可忽略；4小时起多头爆仓骤然碾压空头（占96.5%），方向剧烈逆转，转为持续单边下跌；12小时和24小时多头占比仍高达91.5%~96.5%，空方几无阻力。最终胜出方：空头——价格呈单边持续下行，多头连续止损出清。
时间分布
· 1小时占24小时的 3.3%
· 4小时占24小时的 94.8%
· 12小时占24小时的 94.8%
爆仓极端集中于4-12小时周期（合计约95%），说明主跌浪在4小时内集中爆发并基本完成；24小时总量与12小时仅增$158.06，后12小时增量极为有限。当前处于空头主导的持续下跌尾声，多头力量已基本出清，短期需等待量能萎缩信号。
一句话解读
$OKB 24小时多头爆仓$2,772.26占总量91.5%，4小时集中爆发主跌浪，空头完胜。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。
📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了
两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。
谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。
特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。
信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。
📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局
加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。
根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。
Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。
🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息
当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。
暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。
信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 今天盘面终于有点活气了。
大饼65,300，涨了差不多1个点，凌晨那波直接突破了65,000，最高怼到65,500附近。二饼这次是真硬气，从1,830一口气拉到1,950上方，涨了4个多点，总算没白当一回“老二”。
说白了就一个事：中东那边暂时停火了。
特朗普说暂停打击伊朗，伊朗那边也顺着台阶下，说美国停手我也停。打了这么多天，两边都累了。消息出来原油直接闪崩5%，美股期货、黄金全线上涨，大饼二饼跟着喝口汤。
但别高兴太早，有几个疙瘩得心里有数：
第一，ETF还在跑。周四周五两天比特币ETF净流出了4.65亿，贝莱德周五一天就丢了2个多亿。机构没回来，这波就是情绪驱动的反弹，不是真金白银在买。
第二，这周事儿太密了。周三美联储开会，加息概率35%，虽然不是大概率，但比上周的12%可是翻了好几倍。周四还有个物价数据要出。参议院那边还要推法案投票。任何一个出点意外，今天这点涨幅都不够吐的。
第三，恐惧贪婪指数39，还在恐惧区晃悠。散户没跟，情绪没起来，说明这波反弹没人信。
技术面上，大饼上面65,500-66,500全是等着解套的，下面64,000-64,200是底线。二饼短期压力在1,870-1,900，前期高点1,956是一道坎。
所以今天涨了是好事，但别太当回事。 65,000回来了，关键是能不能站住。有仓位的看住65,000别破，破了就回到老路。空仓的不急这一下，等周三美联储那把刀落地再说。这位置进去，赌的成分比投资的成分大。$BTC $ETH $CORE is currently fluctuating around 0.018, seemingly consolidating sideways, but actually hiding dangers. The team and treasury hold a combined 700 million zero-cost tokens unlocking linearly on a monthly basis, quantitative programs apply layered pressure on the order book around the clock, and the staking mechanism only locks retail circulating supply. These three fundamental logics determine a long-term downward trend in the coin price. The Fed's expected rate cut in September may trigger a pulse rebound, but once the positive news is priced in, the market will quickly cool down. The peak is unlikely to hold above 0.021, followed by accelerated decline. From October to November, as $BTC's market diverges and funds flow back to mainstream assets, $CORE's support levels will be successively broken, with 0.013 and 0.009 potentially becoming casualties of the bulls vs. bears battle. By December year-end, liquidity will dry up, and the annual low will most likely appear near 0.0078, nearly halving from the current price. This downturn is not a short-term negative but a multi-year chip clearing process. The daily rewards from staking are actually inflation dilution; the more you lock, the faster your total assets shrink. Those out of position should not try to catch the bottom at any point; without clear bottom signals, bottom fishing is just taking the bag. Deeply trapped holders can only wait for the September rate cut rebound to the 0.020-0.021 range to gradually reduce positions. Do not expect a trend reversal, and do not add positions to average down. Short-term traders should only take short positions to play the slow decline; the tolerance for long positions is extremely low. The current price is very likely just a downward consolidation; the market is trading time for space, but the space gained is not upward but a lower price.Wooden Sister won't follow in for now. Let's break down the logic and look at $CL $BTC $ETH. This time, oil prices broke 100. On the surface, it looks like Red Sea oil tankers were attacked, US-Iran conflict spilled over, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz dropped to zero. But beneath the surface, two layers of things are pushing forward. The first layer is supply and demand. When the Middle East situation becomes tense, premiums hit the market. Meanwhile, some regions' economic recovery still demands oil. Supply is tight, demand remains, so prices naturally climb. The second layer is inflation transmission. Crude oil is the mother of industry. When prices rise, transportation costs catch up first, chemical costs follow, and finally the consumption side Price pressures are all on the way, and central banks' rate cut plans around the world must be postponed. This is not good news for risk assets, but the market itself has its own adjustment mechanisms. If oil prices are too high, unnecessary travel demand will be suppressed. At the same time, non-OPEC oil-producing countries, seeing high profits, will accelerate capacity expansion, boosting the pace of new energy substitution. In the medium term, the market has the ability to balance itself, though this balancing process will be somewhat painful. Short-term oil price fluctuations do test the quality of global economic recovery, but macroeconomic resilience and energy structure transformation—these long-term variables are equally crucial Don't be led by price. Understanding the transmission chain is far more important than guessing the top. #EarningsReportObserver: Who can understand the real answers from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress Changxin Technology will be listed on Monday. What market value is reasonable to buy in at?
Here is the conclusion first:
Based on Changxin's profits and the P/E ratios of the world's top three memory companies, Changxin's reasonable valuation is between ¥1.7 trillion and ¥2.1 trillion.
Considering the scarcity of domestic DRAM leaders, the market may assign a premium valuation ranging from ¥2.1 trillion to ¥3 trillion.
Additionally, factoring in the low 6.73% circulating share ratio and the market sentiment driven by South Korea's recently announced $950 billion semiconductor cooperation, there is a possibility of an intraday surge to ¥3 trillion to ¥4 trillion.
1. How much is Changxin worth based on profits and peer P/E ratios?
As of the close on July 24, the data for the world's top three memory companies are roughly:
Samsung Electronics: market value about ¥7.35 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥386.7 billion, P/E ratio about 20x;
SK Hynix: market value about ¥5.95 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥348.7 billion, P/E ratio about 17x;
Micron: market value about ¥7.04 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥341.8 billion, P/E ratio about 21x.
Using Changxin's estimated net profit of ¥100 billion in 2026 as a baseline:
A market value of ¥2.1 trillion corresponds to a 21x P/E ratio;
A market value of ¥3 trillion corresponds to a 30x P/E ratio;
A market value of ¥4 trillion corresponds to a 40x P/E ratio.
Therefore, Changxin reaching ¥2.1 trillion would have a valuation roughly close to international peers.
Changxin is inferior to the top three in scale, technology, and customers, but it is the only A-share company capable of large-scale DRAM production, so the market may grant some domestic substitution and scarcity premium.
Note that the three international companies use profits from the last 12 months, while Changxin uses estimated profits for 2026. This data set is mainly for observing valuation positioning and should not be considered a completely identical comparison.
2. Why might South Korea's $950 billion cooperation push up Changxin's valuation?
On July 24, South Korea announced that Samsung and SK Group will collaborate with Broadcom, Nvidia, and others on about $950 billion in semiconductor cooperation over the next five years.
The cooperation involves HBM, advanced memory, and AI data centers, which will further strengthen market expectations for demand and industry prosperity in memory chips.
This news was released before Changxin's listing, potentially increasing capital attention on the memory sector and driving the market to assign a higher sentiment valuation to Changxin.
3. Why might Changxin surge to ¥3 trillion or even ¥4 trillion on the first day?
Based on profits and peer valuations, Changxin's reasonable market value is about ¥1.7 trillion to ¥2.1 trillion. But the first-day price will also be affected by the number of circulating shares.
After issuance, Changxin has a total of 66.881 billion shares, with only 4.503 billion shares tradable on the first day, about 6.73% of total shares.
If selling pressure is low and buying funds are concentrated, the stock price could be rapidly pushed up in a short time. The total market value is calculated by multiplying the current stock price by all 66.881 billion shares, so an extreme market value far exceeding reasonable valuation may appear.
If the total market value reaches ¥3 trillion, the stock price needs to rise to ¥44.86, about 418% above the issue price, corresponding to a circulating market value of about ¥202 billion.
If the total market value reaches ¥4 trillion, the stock price needs to rise to ¥59.81, about 591% above the issue price, corresponding to a circulating market value of about ¥269.3 billion.
The STAR Market new stocks have no price limit for the first five trading days. Combined with the low 6.73% circulation ratio, an intraday surge to ¥3 trillion to ¥4 trillion is possible.
However, ¥4 trillion corresponds to a 40x P/E ratio, requiring low circulation, strong sentiment, and large capital support simultaneously.
Final conclusion:
Changxin's valuation near ¥2 trillion is fundamentally reasonable; ¥3 trillion requires domestic substitution and scarcity premium; an intraday surge to ¥4 trillion mainly depends on low circulation, strong sentiment, and capital driving.
#A股#ChangxinTechnology#Memory#SamsungElectronics#SKHynix#mu#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
A community that survived in a highly leveraged market, I want to share some experiences with everyone.
The futures market is a negative-and-game game. Fees, funding rates, slippage, pin insertion—each item continuously drains participants' money. In such a market, long-term survival itself is a form of excess return.
So the most important thing is how to survive long enough in this market, so long that your cognitive advantage has the chance to turn into profit.
1. Leverage amplifies not returns, but variance
The biggest misunderstanding many beginners have about leverage is that it is understood as a "return amplifier." Wrong. Leverage amplifies variance—it magnifies both your right and wrong positions, and through liquidation mechanisms, you are directly eliminated from the "temporary mistake," unable to wait for the "final right."
If you set the right leverage for a position in one direction and set the leverage too high, a single insertion can sweep you out of the market, and then the price moves in the direction you predicted throughout the entire process. Correct direction but loss is the most common dead end in the futures market, bar none.
When effective leverage exceeds 3x, you should ask yourself: Is this trade worth the risk of liquidation?
2. The width of your stop-loss is determined by market fluctuations, not by your sense of pain
Most persona stop-loss logics are: "I can afford to lose X at most, so I set my stop-loss where I lost X." "This is measuring the market by the thickness of your own wallet; the market won't cooperate with you.
The correct order is reversed:
1. First, look at the current volatility of the instrument (for example, ATR, average true volatility);
2. Stop loss must be placed at the point where the trend has failed, and the width should be no less than 1 times ATR—otherwise, you're not stopping losses, you're just giving money to the insertion;
3. Use the "stop-loss width" to calculate the position size: a wide stop-loss means a smaller position; A narrow stop-loss allows for large positions.
Wide stop-loss + small position is better long-term than narrow stop-loss + large position. The former loses manageable small amounts, while the latter is repeatedly ripped down by market noise—each time swept away at the worst possible level, and then watched the price reverse.
There is also an iron rule: high conviction is not a reason to withdraw from stop-losses. There is no logical connection between "I'm sure it will fall below X" and "So I don't set stop-losses." The former is a viewpoint, the latter is an all-in account for a viewpoint. Opinions can be strong, but positions must be left with a fallback route.
3. Cost structure: Your competitors are not just the market, but also the bill
Contract trading involves three layers of hidden costs, and most people have never fully calculated them:
Funding rate: When the rate is positive, the long side pays the short position; when the rate is negative, the opposite is reversed. It doesn't sound like much, but in extreme market conditions, rates can reach 0.5% or even higher per day—holding the same position for a month can eat up to 15% just from the rates. Before doing arbitrage or long-term trades, you must use the historical settled rates to calculate costs. Don't use the "forecast rates" shown by the exchange, as those are estimates and can be deceiving. Conversely, if you short a stock with a very high fee, the rate is essentially handing you money—for the same short trade, you open the exchange with the highest fee, and the difference over the course of a year is huge.
Slippage and liquidity: Small coins and newly launched contract markets are extremely thin, and the real cost of moving in and out of market orders far exceeds the fees. For products with insufficient depth, the insertion is both frequent and deep, and your stop-loss order may be far below the trigger price.
Fees: For frequent inbound and out-of-the-money travelers, monthly fees often exceed the absolute value of net profit. If you find yourself "always in the right direction and your account isn't rising," first check the fee bill—the answer is usually there.
4. Frequent entry and exit is like a shredder that turns profits into losses
The most common mistake in a consolidation range is repeatedly entering and exiting, each time a little bit is swept away by the small needle, and by the end of the day, all the direction judgments are correct, but the account shrinks. This is called wear.
There is only one solution: reduce frequency and improve the quality of each transaction. One entry, wide stop-loss, hold on. If the range isn't broken, don't move; if it does, accept it. Every time you enter and exit, you pay one more fee, risk being scanned by needles, and lose control of your emotions one more time.
Ask yourself a question: In the past three months, were the ten most profitable deals you made from frequent short-term trading, or were they made with low-frequency large-scale strategies? The vast majority of people answer the latter. Profits are concentrated in a few patient orders, while losses are spread across countless orders that are eager to get hands on.
5. Don't Marry Old Views: The Fulfillment and Falsification of Thesis
Behind every large position, there should be a thesis (core logic): what event or expectation are you betting on? The key to managing this position is to keep asking: How far have I paid out on what I bet?
· Expectations fulfilled: Even if the direction is still moving, it's time to stop. The market has priced in your logic; the remaining volatility has nothing to do with your thesis—you're just running naked.
· Expectations disproven: Cut immediately, don't bargain with your position. Cutting positions is not shameful; "I was wrong" is the most expensive and valuable phrase in this market.
· Expectation reversal: The most advanced move is to cut old positions and reverse to new ones—but only if you truly recognize the new logic, not gamblers who double their losses triggered by losses.
After cashing out old thesis, following the same logic is a common source of chronic losses. Every new order should be accompanied by a fresh reason.
(This post is for trading experience sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.) Contract trading is extremely risky, so be sure to invest your money you can afford to lose. ）Expectations dashed! Majority leaders have stated that the CLARITY Act will be difficult to implement before the recess
The much-anticipated CLARITY Act in the U.S. crypto community has not received any unexpected signals. Senate majority leaders have publicly stated that this long-awaited crypto regulatory bill is unlikely to be finalized before the August summer recess.
This bill is the most important crypto legislation in the U.S. in recent years. If implemented, it will clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC, provide a clear regulatory position for assets like BTC and ETH, bring a federal-level regulatory framework to the entire industry, and serve as a prerequisite for institutional capital to dare to enter on a large scale. Previously, the market generally regarded August 7 as a critical deadline; if this window is missed, the chances of the bill's implementation this year will be greatly reduced.
Currently, there are still significant differences between the two parties. The new crypto ethics clause for public officials, consumer protection, and stablecoin-related details are all key points of contention. The Democratic Party believes that many aspects of the current draft still need to be revised and improved, and there is currently not enough support to push for a full chamber vote. Of course, things are not completely locked down. The leadership's compromise is to at least start the bill review process before the recess, to get the process through first, and to leave some room for further negotiations after the September reconven. But after September, Congress will face a large number of higher-priority bills, and combined with the disruptions of the election cycle, the difficulty of pushing forward will skyrocket.
Let's talk about the actual impact of this incident on the market. Previously, the market had partially priced in optimistic expectations for the bill's implementation, but after the news broke, it shattered the illusion of short-term rapid legislation. In the short term, if the positive news fails to materialize, it will suppress sentiment in risk assets, meaning the "moment of clarity" for U.S. crypto regulation will continue to be postponed.
But we shouldn't be overly pessimistic. The bill isn't completely dead—it's just being delayed. Market narratives will shift from "making rules immediately" to prolonged tug-of-war. For traders, this means there is one less strong catalyst in the short term, making it difficult to expect a major one-sided rally based on this news. Two key issues to follow going forward: whether the review procedures can be completed before the adjournment, and whether the two parties can reach a compromise after resuming in September.
Policy variables are always one of the biggest variables in the crypto market. Missing positive news does not mean total negative news; it only extends the market cycle. Operating, don't bet all your bets on the bill's short-term passage.
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 On the morning of July 27, the market finally stopped focusing solely on BTC. BTC: $65,168.45, 24H +1.50% ETH: $1,947.19, 24H +4.20% SOL: $76.51, 24H +3.00% The most notable point today is not that all three coins rose, but that ETH surged back above $1,900, with gains clearly outperforming BTC. SOL also reclaimed $76, indicating that high Beta risk appetite is warming up. The Fear and Greed Index rose from 26 to 30, showing that sentiment is finally catching up a bit. However, funding rates have also started to rise, with ETH and SOL approaching 0.01%. Although still far from truly crowded, it is no longer the almost directionless state seen yesterday. Today's core judgment: this is an effective recovery after a weak pullback, but not yet a trend reversal. ETH reclaiming $1,900 is the first confirmation; whether BTC can hold above 65.5K and SOL can maintain $76 will determine if the rebound has a second leg. 1) BTC: Above 65K, finally starting to make up lost ground BTC is at $65,168.45, up 1.50% in 24H, with a trading volume of about $14.96B and a market cap of about $1.307T. The 24H range is approximately $64,243-$65,489. BTC continued to rebound from around 64.3K the previous day, reclaiming above $65,000. This move is more meaningful than the weekend bottoming on July 26 because the price has returned to the key recovery zone of the previous pullback.今天全球市场的风险偏好明显回暖，但目前更像是地缘风险降温带来的修复，还不能直接确认新一轮上涨已经启动。 美伊暂停相互攻击后，国际油价大幅回落，美股期指和BTC同步反弹。不过，胡塞武装仍在袭击沙特能源设施，中东局势并未彻底结束。本周美联储决议、美国经济数据和大型科技公司财报，将决定这轮反弹能否延续。 一、隔夜发生了什么？ 1. 美伊暂停相互攻击，风险资产率先反弹 事实： 美国暂时停止对伊朗的军事打击，为双方恢复谈判留下空间。受此影响，截至周日晚间，道指期货上涨约0.5%—0.6%，标普500期货上涨约0.6%—0.7%，纳斯达克100期货上涨约1.2%。BTC重新站上65,000美元。 截至北京时间今早，BTC约报65,295美元，日内高点约65,469美元，低点约64,236美元，较前一交易时段上涨约1.5%。 市场反应： 科技股期货涨幅明显领先道指期货，说明地缘风险降温后，资金优先回流此前跌幅较大的高估值成长板块。 背后逻辑： 军事冲突暂缓 → 能源供应中断风险下降 → 油价与通胀预期回落 → 利率继续上升的压力减轻 → 科技股和BTC获得修复空间 但需要注意，当前只是暂停交火，并不$XAU
1) Trend position
After rebounding near the monthly low, it consolidated sideways around 4000–4150, with multiple resistance near the 200-period moving average above.
In short: the consolidation after a pullback from a high level is not a one-sided trend.
2) Market implications
Risk aversion + interest rate sensitivity. Look at the US dollar and US Treasury real interest rates.
When risk appetite rebounds, gold tends to be weak; Only when risk aversion heats up can the speed accelerate.
Three steps to enhance strength:
(1) Hold firm at 4000
(2) Passed 4150–4160
(3) Stand above 4200 and hold firm
Now stop at (1) and (2), repeatedly trying and not getting clean.
3) Why the key positions are critical
• 4000–4020: Psychological + structural support. Hold on = the bull bottom position remains; Breaking below 3975 = target 3950 or even deeper.
• 4080–4150 / ~4158: Closest pressure recently. Breakthrough and firm standing = repair and upgrade; Surging and pulling back = continuing within a range.
4) Today's trading strategy
• Direction: Range-bound thinking, no one-sided beliefs
• Long: Push back to 4000–4025, stabilize, go long
• Short: Push to 4120–4150 for obvious stagnation, so be lightly short
• Stop loss: Long 3970; Short 4170
• Target: Long on 4080–4120; short on 4020–4000
• Position: Within 10%.
You can do swing trading, but you can't use it as a single trend heavy position. The above are my personal technical views and do not constitute investment advice. Position control is the top priority.$CORE Six core underlying reasons why the CoreDAO project team continues to sell tokens
1. Zero cost for chips, pure zero-risk arbitrage selling (fundamental motivation)
1. The team shares 315 million tokens (15% of the total). During the creation phase, there is no capital cost. After only one year of locking, the token is linearly unlocked over 36 months. In 2026, it will be in the mid-stage of concentrated release, with a fixed monthly set of ten million zero-cost tokens automatically credited to the project's controlled wallet. After unlocking, the sole purpose is to cash out and secure it.
2. 199.5 million treasury tokens and 210 million reserve fund tokens are unlocked at genesis, all unilaterally controlled by the foundation, with no DAO voting required for transfers; the official government has mortgaged large amounts of CORE stablecoins as collateral, but the collateral is only a transitional form and will eventually be sold off in batches to repay debts and withdraw cash flow.
3. A total of 700 million controllable chips, far exceeding the retail investors' free circulation market. As long as there are funds to support the market, distribution will continue in batches, with no incentive to hold back the token.
2. The ecosystem lacks self-sustaining ability and relies entirely on token selling to cover operating expenses
1. Flagship products SatPay and BTCFi value flywheel continue to fall short. As of July 2026, there are no large-scale commercial scenarios or stable fee revenue. The white paper's promised "ecosystem buyback" is entirely unsupported by large on-chain bids, and the project has no independent cash flow sources.
2. Team salaries, KOL paid trolls, overseas PR meetings (Hong Kong Web3 Summit), node subsidies, and exchange market-making fees all rely on selling CORE to sustain costs; Once the sell-off stops, the entire project's marketing and operations system will be cut off immediately.
3. The original gas burn mechanism has been gradually abolished by the official side; block fees no longer burn tokens and instead flow entirely into the foundation's operations pool, further amplifying circulating supply and intensifying selling demand.
3. Selling with a lukewarm and low-pressure price is the optimal monetization strategy to avoid crash risk
1. Violent large orders can directly break market liquidity, turning into a massive crash where massive chips cannot be sold; Steady and layered selling, using quantitative splitting of equal sell orders to slowly decline, can maintain basic liquidity for a long time and extend the multi-year distribution cycle.
2. Each release of ecosystem positive news (SatPay integration, institutional node cooperation) creates a small pulse rebound, specifically attracting bottom-fishing retail investors to unlock shares. The rebound window is a concentrated selling window, and the essence of the positive news is a PR strategy supporting the shipment.
3. B14G and node staking mechanisms deliberately guide retail investors to buy and lock positions, reducing stop-loss selling pressure. In the secondary market, only project teams are left selling in one direction, maximizing supply-demand imbalance and acceptance efficiency.
4. Centralized governance, no willingness to take custody; DAO is just a packaging concept
1. Nominally a decentralized DAO, but in reality, treasury allocation, market-making quantitative strategies, and token unlock rhythms are all unilaterally decided by the core team; community voting cannot interfere with large token disposals.
2. The project team has no long-term token management demands: BTCFi competitors Stacks and Babylon continue to divert institutional funds, CORE has no proprietary technical barriers, and the team anticipates long-term valuation declines and chooses to cash out early while liquidity remains, avoiding the token price being wiped out later.
3. No long-term market cap management plan, never investing own funds to buy back and support the bottom; all narratives are aimed at stabilizing trapped market shares and preventing collective losses that could break the distribution channel.
5. Macro and track capital retreat, cash out early to avoid depreciation risk
1. Market hotspots continue to shift to the Meme sector. There is a gap in incremental funds in the BTCFi sector, and off-exchange speculative funds collectively avoid VC altcoins with highly concentrated shares. The number of buyers will only continue to shrink, and the earlier you sell, the higher the exchange rate to cash out.
2. Global crypto regulations are tightening, with tighter checks on token unlocking and cash-out and programmatic market manipulation; The project team chose to ship slowly in batches to avoid regulatory accountability risks caused by large-scale one-time sell-offs and to reduce qualitative evidence of quantitative manipulation.
3. Even if the Fed's rate cuts bring market easing, it will only be a short-term impulse rally. The team will seize liquidity peaks to intensify selling and will not hold onto waiting for a trend reversal.
6. Adjusting paid posters and narrative strategies: no need to attract new users, just keep digesting existing chips
1. The blow-in-the-mouth supporters who previously went all-in and heavily invested have collectively fallen silent. The core reason is that all retail investors in the market are deeply trapped, with no new retail investors left to buy new investors, so there is no need to spend money to build momentum and push the market up; At this stage, all that's needed is to keep selling existing tokens to unlock chips, and make a few PR announcements to stabilize those holding positions in the market.
2. Consensus on off-exchange funds to avoid mines has formed, the cost-effectiveness of hype and new sales has dropped to zero, marketing budgets have shrunk, and all resources are shifted to a mild narrative of supporting shipments, rather than speculative price rallying.
⚠️ Risk warning: Speculative virtual currency trading is considered an illegal financial activity in China. The content only objectively dissects token economics and trading logic, and does not constitute any investment or trading advice垃圾债已经出现破位信号，值得高度警惕
垃圾债市场正在走弱，这个信号一定要重点留意。
当前市场当中，创出新低的债券数量已经远超创出新高的品种。涨跌腾落线（涨跌线）即将跌至一年以来的低位。
历史经验表明，高收益垃圾债往往是股市十分有效的先行预警指标，尤其在股指处于高位区间的时候，信贷市场的异动经常会提前反映后续权益市场的变化。
⚠️仅为市场信号观察，不构成任何投资建议。 Looking at Google's and Tesla's earnings reports side by side this time is quite interesting. On the surface, both companies are talking about AI, autonomous driving, and next-generation products; But when it comes to cash flow, investment pace, and profit quality, the story is not the same.
Let's start with Google. Alphabet's Q2 revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24% year-over-year. The cloud business continues to grow rapidly, indicating that AI demand is beginning to turn into orders. Search ads haven't suddenly collapsed; AI summaries and AI modes are temporarily more like changing entry points rather than immediately replacing search. However, investment income accounts for a high proportion of net profit, so you can't simply treat it as a main business that has already earned so much. The real question Google wants to answer is whether the computing power and data center budget invested in the coming years can be redeemed for higher cloud revenue, more stable ad efficiency, and new subscription revenue.
Tesla is like a different kind of test. In the second quarter, over 480,000 vehicles were delivered, generating about $28 billion in revenue, but AI infrastructure, robotics, autonomous driving, and new factories are all advancing simultaneously, driving up capital expenditures and putting pressure on free cash flow. Its most appealing aspect is that it portrays car companies as software, energy, and robotics; The most hesitant part is that these long-term stories require spending money today; short-term income statements are unlikely to testify for the future.
Looking at these two financial reports, what matters most isn't the after-hours price fluctuations, but whether management has fully explained the chain of "input—product—revenue—cash flow." Google has advertising and cloud services as a foundation, giving it greater room for trial and error; Tesla has a bigger imagination, but it must face the reality of simultaneous changes in car prices, delivery pace, and R&D investment. One bets on strong cash flow for the future, the other seeks cash flow in future narratives. Whether valuations can hold up ultimately depends on input-output rather than just slogans.
This is also worth noting: as US giants continue to push budgets toward AI, computing power, and automation, market risk appetite becomes more sensitive, and liquidity assets in the digital asset market often reflect this sentiment first. Treating financial reports as transcripts isn't enough; what's truly useful is seeing what comes from behind the scores and where the money comes from and where it will be spent.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile. Please, #earningsObserver: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? $BTC Independent judgment and attention to risks.#Gate.io版临时工
Gate官方持续声称对接我们ALD社区的Robin是冒充人员、骗子，这里有几个无法回避的核心疑问，请正面答复：
1. 如果Robin仅仅是外部骗子、并非Gate工作人员，一名不受官方授权的冒充者，凭什么拥有权限完成Gate Alpha完整上币流程，成功将ALD代币上线平台？
Gate上币具备内部多层审批机制，绝非外部人员可以私自操作。倘若外人随便冒充员工就能完成代币上线，是否证明Gate内部权限管理彻底失控，任何人都能冒充工作人员主导项目上币？
2. 我们按照对接人要求，足额支付上币对应的USDT与ALD。若Robin属于个人欺诈，为何骗子指引我们转账的资金最终流入Gate体系，并且代币如期上线？
普通人实施诈骗，目标是私自侵占资金；而本次资金交割完成后代币成功上架平台，完全不符合普通骗子的作案逻辑。
3. Gate不能简单用“对接人是骗子”单方面撕毁双方达成的上币约定。
代币成功上线Gate Alpha是客观既定事实，交易行为、履约结果真实发生。不能享受项目方缴纳费用带来的收益，同时以“人员冒充”为由拒绝履行全部协议义务。
4. 希望Gate公开本次ALD上线Gate Alpha完整审批链路、内部经手工作人员。
如果Robin无任何官方授权，请解释：一名外部冒充者，是如何绕过全部内部风控、审批，打通上币全流程的？ 这是否意味着Gate Alpha上币渠道存在重大漏洞，所有项目方都面临被虚假人员诱导的风险？Stop worrying about the Nasdaq bubble every day.
New Nasdaq regulations for 2026 are actively repairing the structural risks of the index:
Weights of low-float stocks,
Component stocks are reviewed quarterly,
Super companies are quickly included after going public,
Avoid letting a few stocks and passive funds ruin the index.
Of course, the new regulations cannot eliminate the bubble.
But at least it says one thing:
Today's Nasdaq is not the 2000 Nasdaq that only knew concepts and trash companies could soar.
What should truly be focused on is not whether there is a bubble, but whether corporate profits can catch up with valuations. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? $BTC #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
Ethereum validators leaving the queue to zero is quite something worth pondering.
Here are a few key figures. In September 2025, the exit queue backlog peaked at 2.67 million ETH, valued at about $11.7 billion. And now? 0. Retreat whenever you want, no one leaves. Meanwhile, the entry queue is about 2.499 million ETH, requiring 43 days to get in. With one entry and one out, the difference was over two million coins. Currently, about 40.8 million ETH have been staked across the network, accounting for 33.49% of the total supply, with 883724 active validators and an annualized staking yield of 2.64%.
The motivation for quitting is often selling for cash or lacking confidence in the internet. No one is lining up to exit, which means these stakers aren't in a rush to cash out now; they feel it's more cost-effective to take the pledge returns than to sell. Some people are lining up to enter, which means there are nearly 2.5 million ETH outside wanting to be locked up. A network no one wants to enter, and a threshold that many people want to enter—this signal is more direct than any candlestick chart.
And there's a bigger background to this—Ethereum ETFs had accumulated net inflows of $10.48 billion by mid-July. Institutions are buying ETFs, major players are staking, and both forces are simultaneously draining liquidity. Wallet addresses are decreasing, and tradable ETH is decreasing.
A few days ago, Vitalik also proposed an "extreme streamlined chain," aiming to compress each validator's state to about 6 bytes and replace cyclical updates with ZK proofs, aiming to scale validators to the millions. It seems the team itself is preparing for a larger lock-up.
The staking yield is 2.64%, which isn't high, but combined with ETH's expected appreciation, it is indeed attractive for long-term capital. These people aren't quitting not because they don't want to sell, but because they feel now is not the time to sell.🚢 霍尔木兹海峡一声巨响，油轮炸了，市场瞬间拉满避险情绪。伊朗嘴上说停止报复，川普连续两晚取消打击，美伊这出“二人转”还在反复拉扯，纯折磨。
📊 通胀鬼故事卷土重来：美债收益率狂飙，美元走强，降息预期一再被打压。$BTC 反弹被四座大山死死压住——美元、美债、降息前景、地缘风险，多头想突围？难。
🔍 TRUMP 团队刚把 1380 万枚代币转入 CEX，这会不会是抛压前兆？还没定论。另一边 Saylor 却明牌暗示下周还要买入，多空信号极度分裂。
⏳ 周一开盘，盯着三件事：油价先表态，美债收益率跟着动，大饼最后出答案。别猜，等盘面说话。
#伊朗 #TRUMP #霍尔木兹 #比特币我们没有负责人，现在我需要知晓以下问题，我只在Gate官方app进行联系，请管理层落实以下问题，请看清楚字，别用话术敷衍，Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子的钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？
哈希在这里：
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这是Gate的回答对吗？新一周重磅事件密集来袭，多重关键数据与财报将定调风险资产走向
全新交易周已经开启，各类催化事件扎堆落地，市场即将迎来相当热闹的一周。
地缘方面，美伊双方选择相互克制，冲突阶段性降温，重启谈判的可能性重新浮现。受避险情绪回落带动，布伦特原油价格顺势跌破90美元关口，短期之内，风险资产有望获得一段喘息窗口。
国内资本市场同样迎来重磅事件，国产DRAM龙头合肥长鑫科技登陆A股科创板。这也是科创板有史以来规模最大的IPO项目之一，发行价定为8.66元，上市对应估值接近5800亿元，代表国内存储芯片产业迎来重要的资本里程碑。
海外端，周三SK海力士将披露第二季度财报。在本轮AI驱动的存储上行周期当中，这份财报的参考价值不容小觑，其重要程度甚至可以和英伟达财报相提并论，是观测AI产业链景气度的核心风向标。
周四，美国将释放核心PCE通胀数据。倘若核心PCE月率超出市场预期，会强化市场对于高利率延续更久的判断，美债收益率、美元随之走强，科技股、比特币以及黄金都会面临下行压力；反之，一旦通胀数据不及预期，市场会重新定价流动性宽松预期，AI科技股与加密资产将会迎来利好驱动。
PCE负责展示通胀现实，而紧随其后的美联储FOMC利率决议，则会对外释放政策端的应对态度。
7月29日美股盘后，Meta、微软、高通、ARM集体发布2026年第二季度财报。叠加SK海力士的业绩报告，这批巨头的营收、资本开支指引，将共同左右未来一个季度全球AI科技板块以及大类风险资产的运行方向。
经过本周密集的数据与财报洗礼，市场也会拿到更多线索，用来推演第三、第四季度风险资产的大致格局。AI属于长期确定赛道，就现阶段来看，行业尚未走到泡沫化阶段。
⚠️本文仅为市场事件梳理，不构成任何投资建议。$BTC 昨天微策略把USDT储备拉到30亿美元
通过卖MSTR股票，套现4.67亿美元
BTC持仓84.3万枚，一枚也没卖
如果微策略看空，卖了MSTR之后应该顺带卖BTC，但是他没卖
他这应该是用低成本的股权融资来买币，而不是卖币来买币，84.3万枚是底仓，不是筹码
短期看，这30亿是"备子弹"中期看，MSTR的折价在收窄，说明市场应该在给这个模式重新定价The crypto community often discusses US stocks, macro policies, liquidity, and other topics, sometimes making them a bit dizzying.
To try to understand simply, I made a comparison chart of BTC and US M2.
Let's start with the conclusion:
Setting aside short-term fluctuations, the US M2 has generally risen over the long term, while BTC's long-term price center continues to climb.
This shows that there is indeed a certain structural relationship between BTC and the liquidity cycle.
Next, let's look at M2 YoY (year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply):
Around 2023, liquidity contraction neared its low, then gradually recovered, and now returns to positive growth, with the latest value at about +5.6%.
My understanding:
Of course, BTC short-term predictions cannot be made based on M2 trading.
But looking at a longer timeframe, changes in the US liquidity environment may have a significant impact on the long-term pricing of BTC, a scarce digital asset.
In other words:
BTC is not just a high-volatility risk asset. From a longer perspective, its value storage logic as a scarce digital asset is indeed quite interesting. On a large cycle scale, the connection between liquidity conditions and BTC's long-term trend may be deeper than many people imagine.
(Personal amateur research, does not constitute investment advice)$BTC 今日加密要闻
1）比特币一度突破6.5万美元。伊朗局势升级推高油价和美债收益率，风险资产同步承压，宏观重新成为短线定价核心。
2）美国现货比特币ETF连续第7个交易日净流入，最新单日约6900万美元，阶段累计接近10亿美元；机构资金仍在承接，但力度尚不足以抵消宏观压力。
3）AFX与Verus运营的跨链桥数小时内接连发生安全事件，涉及约3160万美元资产；风险集中于桥的签名与密钥体系，Arbitrum原生桥未受影响。
结论：ETF资金提供边际支撑，但油价、收益率与安全风险仍占上风，短线宜控制杠杆，等待宏观波动收敛。$BTC $ETH #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, Endorsed by Industry Collectives On July 27, Japanese and Korean stock markets opened with forty minutes of volatility, showing a pattern of weak opening and pull-back after rallies. Overseas markets saw significant sentiment suppression from overnight drops in US tech stocks. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index opened slightly higher, rising as much as 0.86% in early trading, but has since narrowed its gain to 0.38%, showing a relatively stable trend. On the board, low-valuation weighted indices such as finance and heavy manufacturing stabilized the market, while the semiconductor equipment sector surged but then retreated. Funds realized short-term profits, with no sustained incremental capital inflow. South Korea's KOSPI opened up 1.73%. Stimulated by positive cooperation in memory chips, Samsung and SK Hynix surged sharply in early trading. However, bullish pressure quickly emerged, and the index currently rose only 0.05%, nearly flat. Korea's ChiNext KOSDAQ showed relative resilience, maintaining a 1.18% gain, with smaller and mid-cap tech stocks showing stronger support. Sector differentiation is significant, with the AI storage industry chain benefiting early and chip leaders surging but then retreating; Pro-cyclical sectors such as shipbuilding and machinery held up against the trend, while precious metals and oil & gas safe-haven stocks weakened slightly. Overall, the Asia-Pacific market lacked rebound momentum, negative sentiment from overnight tech plunges in U.S. stocks continued, and the positive news for memory chips only brought short-term pulse rallies. The weakness in Japanese and Korean tech stocks will slightly suppress the early recovery of A-share semiconductor and CPO sectors, and overall market risk aversion remains, making it difficult to break out of a one-sided rally in the short term. AI投资进入下半场，真正的赢家不是烧钱最多的人
本期财报观察员，我想从一个容易被忽略的角度看AI产业。
很多人看到谷歌、特斯拉财报，第一反应是看营收增长、利润变化，但市场真正关注的，其实是一个问题：
AI投入的钱，什么时候能够变成持续增长的收入？
数据：
谷歌 Alphabet
营收：1198亿美元，同比增长24%
Google Cloud：248亿美元，同比增长82%
2026年资本开支指引：1950亿至2050亿美元
核心变化：
AI业务正在推动云收入高速增长，但巨额基础设施投入也让市场开始重新评估回报周期。
特斯拉 Tesla
营收：282亿美元，同比增长26%
研发费用：同比大幅提升
资本开支继续扩大，重点投入自动驾驶、机器人和AI基础设施
核心变化：
汽车业务仍是现金流来源，但未来估值越来越依赖AI故事能否兑现。
从历史周期来看，每一次技术革命初期，市场都会经历一个阶段：
第一阶段，看谁投入最多。
第二阶段，看谁技术领先。
第三阶段，看谁能把投入转化成利润。
现在AI可能正在进入第三阶段。
过去两年，市场奖励的是算力供应商，因为GPU、服务器、存储需求爆发。
但未来竞争重点可能会转向：
谁拥有更高效的模型
谁能降低AI应用成本
谁能把AI真正商业化
这也是为什么存储产业值得关注。
韩国存储双雄三星和SK海力士近期持续受益于AI服务器需求增长，HBM高带宽内存成为AI基础设施核心环节。
而国内长鑫科技即将上市，也让市场重新关注国产存储产业链。
未来几年，存储可能不是简单的周期反弹，而是AI基础设施升级带来的结构性机会。
但风险也很明显。
如果AI资本开支增长速度超过商业化速度，市场可能会重新定价整个AI板块。
真正值得关注的，不是谁喊AI最响，而是谁能把AI投入变成真实利润。
我的观点：
AI行情没有结束，但投资逻辑正在变化。
上半场看算力。
下半场看效率和兑现能力。
接下来几年，存储、云计算、AI应用之间的竞争，可能才是真正决定赢家的战场。
#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ Guys, did you sleep well last night?
I didn't sleep well anyway—woken up by my phone at 3 a.m., glanced at the pick: SHIB +40%, LPT +5%, Solana and BNB gains instantly lost their appeal. Rubbing his eyes to make sure he wasn't mistaken: 0.000005361. Three days ago he was lying on his stomach at 0.0000049, and when he woke up, he was almost touching 0.0000058. The group has already started shouting "hundredfold," "reset to zero," and "the dog farm is here," even LPT, a "veteran meat," has been pushed from 1.4 to 1.55.
Here's the question—who is buying? Why buy it? Is it a bull return, or a scam?
---
Market analysis: The weekend "fireworks show" is not so simple
Let's first look at SHIB's data. The 24-hour high was 0.000005827, the lowest was 0.000004906, with an amplitude close to 19%. Trading volume was 3.63 trillion SHIB, with a total turnover of 19.63 million USDT—this volume isn't exaggerated on a weekday, but in a low-liquidity weekend environment, it was enough to drive the price sky. EMA5 (0.000005355), EMA10 (0.000005344), and EMA20 (0.000005325) are all below the price, with short-term moving averages aligned in bullish alignment, and the technical outlook is indeed positive. However, note that after the high of 0.000005827, the price fell back to 0.000005361, indicating obvious selling pressure above.
Looking at LPT, it's even more typical. The 24-hour high was 1.787, the lowest was 1.423, with an amplitude of 25%+, but the current price is only 1.553, down 13% from the high. Although the EMA moving averages are bullish, trading volume has sharply shrunk from its high—VOL (LPT) is only 27.295, half of the earlier session. This combination of "surge, pullback, then shrink volume + shrinkage" is a typical example of a pulse rebound in old coins.
Key background: These two events occurred during Bitcoin's sideways trading weekend. Bitcoin is dozing off around 68k, liquidity is drying up, and small amounts of money can trigger big swings. Smart money doesn't blindly launch all-out attacks; it usually ignites the most recognizable stock first—SHIB, as the king of memes, is naturally the best "thermometer." If SHIB rises and the market follows the trend enthusiastically, it indicates that on-site funds still have vitality; If you can't keep up, then just keep lying flat.
Therefore, this rally is more like a "weekend market makers' test"—testing whether on-site funds are still active and whether anyone is willing to chase them. And what happened? SHIB fell 40% quickly and then quickly retreated; LPT dropped 25% but gave up more than half. There are followers, but their sustainability is insufficient.
---
Trading direction: Don't treat testing as a trend
Short-term strategy:
· SHIB: Currently 0.000005361, very close to EMA5. If it can rise again to 0.0000055 with increased volume today, in the short term a rebound could be seen at 0.0000058-0.0000060. However, the stop loss must be set below 0.0000052 (EMA20). Once it falls below this, it indicates that bulls are losing momentum and there is a high probability of testing the previous low of 0.0000049. A 1:2 profit-loss ratio allows for small positions to test trades.
· LPT: 1.553 is neither going up nor down. The upper 1.65-1.75 is the heavy resistance zone, while the lower 1.45 is support. If volume rises and breaks through 1.6, you can chase, but it's safer to wait for a pullback near 1.5 to buy long. This product has poor liquidity, high slippage, and a position that's half as light as SHIB.
Medium- to Long-Term Outlook:
· Over 95% of the weekend pulse rally was a false breakout. Without the Bitcoin (for example, Bitcoin breaking 70,000), these old coins will find it difficult to break out of an independent trend.
· What are SHIB's fundamentals? The rise in activity among Korean traders is positive, but the essence of meme coins is emotional gaming; without sustained narrative, there is no sustained capital.
· LPT, this "old meat," has no new story; it's purely a follower spurred by SHIB, with the worst sustainability.
My operation: In the morning session, I already reduced half my position in SHIB at 0.0000054, and didn't touch LPT. If SHIB can break through 0.0000056 with increased volume this afternoon, I'll catch up; if it falls below 0.0000053, I'll just watch the show.
---
A bit of thought: weekend fireworks are just for show
After trading for a while, you'll notice a pattern—coins that surge over the weekend often don't rise on Monday. Because the main players used low liquidity to push prices up, attracting retail investors to chase the rise over the weekend, then when liquidity recovered on Monday, they sold off accordingly. You might think it's a "weekend carnival," but it's actually a "weekend trap."
I've suffered losses too many times. Previously, when SHIB jumped 20%, I would impulsively buy in with a full sell-off, only to crash back to square one at the opening on Monday, leaving no time to stop losses. Later, I learned my lesson: during weekend pulses, only reduce positions, never increase positions. If you have a bottom position, you can sell a little on a rally; If you are short on a position, it's better to miss out than chase—because in this kind of market, chasing in will likely cause you to stand guard. If you don't chase for the most profitable amount, the safety of your principal is most important.
Also, don't try to guess "why prices are rising." Korean traders pushing? So why did LPT also rise? Are Koreans also buying LPT? Many times, the rise and fall are random fluctuations, and excuses are just to convince yourself to chase highs. A real big market is definitely a trend driven by a large pie, not just a few old coins hyping themselves over the weekend.
So, my principle is this: treat the weekend rally like fireworks, and set your direction when the market opens on Monday.
DYOR, set stop-losses and don't let fireworks blind you. 🎆
$SHIB $LPT $DOGE
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives 站在当前时点，凯文·沃什到底是鹰派还是鸽派？
市场对于9月的加息次数预期，已经从6月议息会议前的0.4次，抬升到现在的1.1次。市场总是习惯性事后找叙事：股市一跌，就传出沃什要重启缩表、行情要彻底完蛋；股市处在高位，又改口说他立场转鸽，马上就要降息。
现实来看，沃什重启缩表基本不现实，不要抱有幻想。年初美联储小规模扩表，是为了应对银行体系流动性紧张，如今已经没有缩表的操作余地。如果真要重新开启缩表，前提条件是先给银行业松开部分约束。
至于加息，至少现阶段，沃什对市场当前的定价状态是满意的。后续核心要看他会不会直接强硬对抗市场预期，一旦这么做，对这位新任美联储主席的公信力将会造成致命打击。
⚠️仅为市场观点推演，不构成任何投资建议。Storj Labs' Chapter 11 restructuring application focuses on whether the ecosystem fund will be used to repay debts, and the dilution expectations during the restructuring process directly engage in a game with the underlying fundamentals of normal network operation.
Current market facts show that Storj Labs has entered bankruptcy restructuring rather than liquidation, with node networks and data storage functions still running, and $STORJ market value staying just above $100 million.
The main driver of the short-term trend is the restructuring court's ruling on the debt settlement pathway, followed by rising inflation expectations leading to position clearing, with overall risk appetite in the decentralized storage sector shrinking in third place.
In the upside scenario, the restructuring plan clearly separates the token ecosystem fund from debt repayment; once old debt is removed, selling pressure is dissipated, and funds return to pricing the network value to maintain operation. The script requires observing whether the court announcement prohibits the use of token assets; if creditors signal to force token liquidation, the script becomes invalid.
In the downside scenario, the debt restructuring plan is set to fill the debt gap by issuing or consuming ecosystem funds, with dilution effects directly disrupting token economics and prompting long positions to exit faster. This scenario requires attention to the token disposal clauses in the draft; if the diluted share is locked up by long-term protocols as a guarantee, the downside scenario becomes invalid.
Across the decentralized storage sector, $FIL and $AR have experienced long-term adjustments, while $STORJ maintained its valuation based on enterprise client performance. This incident has intensified internal capital repositioning within the sector.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether the bankruptcy restructuring court's first debt restructuring draft includes plans for selling or issuing token ecosystem funds.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, progress in negotiations on the opening of the strait has #贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟I analyze from a cyclical perspective + capital perspective + technical perspective:
1. The current core logic of ETH
ETH is not due to rising retail sentiment.
There are three main factors truly driving ETH:
(1) ETF fund flows
Recently, there have been signs of ETF funds returning to the market, and institutional selling pressure has significantly eased compared to before. ETH previously rebounded from around $1,500, essentially signaling that funds are beginning to reassess their long-term value.
(2) RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization)
This is one of the most important logics for the next 3-5 years.
Data shows:
* In Q1 2026, the global RWA scale has exceeded $19 billion
* Stock tokenization and government bond tokenization are growing very rapidly
* Ethereum remains one of the main RWA bearer networks
I've been following the following before:
* ONDO
* Stock tokenization
* Micron tokenization
* Hynix tokenization
In fact, many of these will eventually be associated with the ETH ecosystem.
(3) Stablecoin growth
ETH's biggest moat is actually not DeFi.
Instead:
* USDT
* USDC
* RWA
* ETF
* Institutional liquidation
Most of these assets still operate around the Ethereum ecosystem.
2. Possible future positive developments
If any of the following situations occur:
Scenario 1: The Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates
Historical Patterns:
Interest rate cuts → weaker US dollar→ risk assets strengthened
The usual order of benefits is:
BTC → ETH → altcoins
ETH is often the biggest beneficiary of the second phase.
Scenario 2: ETH ETFs continue to see net inflows
If the ETF has inflows for several consecutive months:
ETH may regain institutional allocation.
In this case:
$2,000 will not be the end.
Scenario 3: RWA outbreak
Currently, the market still undervalues RWAs.
According to CoinGecko data:
From 2025 to Q1 2026, RWA scale is expected to grow by more than 250%.
If rapid growth continues over the next two years:
ETH will continue to benefit.
3. Possible future negative factors
Greatest Risk 1: U.S. economic recession
If you encounter the following:
* Unemployment rate is rising rapidly
* US stocks plunged
Funds will leave the crypto market first.
Biggest Risk 2: ETF funds will flow out again
ETH has not yet fully escaped institutional selling pressure.
If continuous outflow reappears:
ETH may retest the 1800 or even 1700 area.
Biggest Risk 3: Solana ecosystem seizing the market
Although ETH still leads:
But chains like Solana and Base are competing for:
* RWA
* Payment
* Stock tokenization
ETH's market share is gradually being diluted.
4. Trend Prediction for the Next Six Months
Optimistic scenario (25% probability)
Conditions:
* ETFs continue to flow in
* The Federal Reserve signals rate cuts
* BTC breaks its all-time high
ETH maybe:
1930 → 2200 → 2500 → 2800
Neutral Situation (50% Probability)
Conditions:
* ETF inflows are average
* The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady
ETH maybe:
Fluctuating within the 1800~2300 range
This is what I believe is the most probable scenario.
Pessimistic scenario (25% probability)
Conditions:
* US stocks plunged
* Rising macro risks
* ETF outflows
ETH maybe:
1930 → 1800 → 1700
Even testing 1600.
My outlook for ETH in the next 6-12 months
If I were to give a comprehensive conclusion:
Short-term (1-4 weeks)
Relatively high
Objectives:
1950 → 2000 → 2100
Mid-term (3-6 months)
Fluctuating upward
Target Range:
2200~2800
Long-term (before 2027)
If:
* The rate cut cycle has begun
* RWA continues to expand
* ETFs continue to accumulate funds
Then ETH returning above $3,000 is not difficult.
From an investment perspective, my current judgment on ETH is:
The probability of an increase is about 60%-65%, and the probability of a drop is about 35%-40%.
$ETH Gold has dropped to a spot, but no one is buying.
Since March, $XAUT gold has dropped a cumulative 25.3%, marking the fastest pullback since 1980. RSI fell to 24.6, net long non-commercial positions fell to the second lowest level since 2010, with valuation models implying a midpoint of about $3,861 per ounce. All three indicators point to the same conclusion: gold is oversold.
And then? Since June, global gold ETF holdings have continued to decrease by 55 tons. The bottom signal has come out, but funds just won't flow in.
Gold's decline is not a breakdown of the "de-dollarization" narrative.
Since 2022, the share of the US dollar in international payments has instead increased by 10.2%. More than 60% of central banks believe that gold purchases have nothing to do with "de-dollarization." The rise in gold prices is a resonance between investment demand and central bank gold purchases, not one replacing the other.
The real culprit is the simultaneous decline of both investment demands.
Global central bank gold purchases of 244 tons in the first quarter have not slowed down. But on China's side, overheated sentiment in A-shares and RMB appreciation have dampened enthusiasm for gold purchases. On the European and American sides, 163 tons of gold were sold off amid rising real interest rates and a rebound in the US dollar. If both sides withdraw at the same time, gold can't hold on.
What is gold waiting for?
Oil prices remain high, geopolitical risks have yet to be cleared, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates nearly twice this year. Gold is waiting for two things: global liquidity easing, or cooling geopolitical volatility. Only when one of these two signals appears will gold truly start moving.
Isn't this scenario familiar to the crypto market?
How long has BTC been grinding around 60,000? Every rebound is suppressed, and every drop is bottom-fished. Everyone is waiting for the same thing—when will the Fed really pivot? Gold's "bottom signal came up but didn't rise" and BTC's "60,000 bottom grinding" are the same story. Both assets are waiting for the Federal Reserve to speak.
Whoever waits first runs first.
(Gold's predicament is a mirror of the crypto market—the expected rate hikes weigh down all non-yielding assets.) When the Fed truly loosens its tone, gold may not be the first to rise, but potentially the more elastic $BTC. But before that, everyone had to endure. ）The market finally showed some activity today.
Bitcoin reached 65,300, up almost 1 point. In the early morning wave, it broke through 65,000 directly, reaching a high near 65,500. Erbing really stood firm this time, surging from 1,830 to above 1,950, up more than 4 points, and at least not wasting its time as the "second strongest."
To put it bluntly, there's just one thing: the Middle East has a temporary ceasefire.
Trump said to pause strikes on Iran, and Iran followed suit, saying, 'If the U.S. stops, I stop too.' After playing for so many days, both sides are exhausted. After the news broke, crude oil plummeted by 5%, US stock futures and gold rose across the board, and Dabing and Erbing got a taste of the soup.
But don't get too happy too soon; there are a few knots you already know in your heart:
First, ETFs are still running. On Thursday and Friday, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 465 million, while BlackRock lost over 200 million in just one day. Institutions haven't returned, so this rebound is driven by sentiment, not real money buying.
Second, the weekly events are too tight. On Wednesday, the Fed held a meeting, with a 35% probability of a rate hike. Although not highly probable, it is several times higher than last week's 12%. There is also price data to be released on Thursday. The Senate still has to push for a bill vote. If any of these surprises happen, today's slight gains wouldn't be enough to make a swearing.
Third, the Fear and Greed Index is 39, still lingering in the fear zone. Retail investors didn't follow suit, and sentiment didn't pick up, which means no one believes in this rebound.
Technically, the above 65,500-66,500 is all waiting to break even, while the bottom line is 64,000-64,200. Erbing's short-term resistance is between 1,870-1,900, with the previous high of 1,956 being a major hurdle.
So today's rise is a good thing, but don't take it too seriously. 65,000 has returned; the key is whether we can hold our ground. If you have a position, watch carefully and don't break 65,000; if you do, you'll go back to the old path. Short positions don't rush; wait until the Fed's knife hits on Wednesday before dealing with it. Entering this position carries more gambling than investment. $BTC $ETH Last season, Crypto kept rewarding paper hands;
The rewarded paper hands and the shortsighted capital behind them constantly promote shortsighted behaviors and "control" public opinion and aesthetics, which has almost become an inevitable chain of dissemination;
Last season, we didn't see Doge create an ATH, nor ETH and SOL generate the gains they deserved, except for BTC barely hitting new highs;
By the way, those who have been on the four-year cycle seem to have forgotten that last season, BTC hit a new high before the halving;
Then the market started saying ETH was crap, SOL was the Holy Grail, and Pump accelerated this paper hand culture;
I don't know about others, but my honest feeling is: aside from the real meme meta PEPE brought after NFTs in 2023, there was nothing truly exciting about the last crypto season;
Not to mention the shock caused by GME, DOGE, and SHIB back then;
Only countless speedruns remained, peaking when Trump issued the currency;
But we really didn't see the birth of a legend last season; many paper players abandoned crypto to chase AI stocks half a year ago;
This is a relatively thorough clearance. The diamond hands left behind are real diamond hands, and after countless ups and downs in the wallet, they still choose to keep them;
I guess the next crypto season will reward diamond hands;
Doge and PEPE will hit new highs;
ETH will break through the $5,000 cage;
We will see memecoins 🐸🐸 reaching hundreds of billions of dollars;
When PEPE truly broke through its ATH;
The market will once again have the power to control the diamonds;
At that time, the market will wash over time and redefine what a true memecoin meta is;
- The leaders become true models of wealth creation and can weather cycles;
- Numerous projects are reconstructed and replicated, and assets with independent community attributes can be produced;
- Continuously attracting new users and new assets to crypto;
- Each cycle can spark months of climax;
- Finally, leave behind infrastructure, user habits, and cultural assets;#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
今天咱来浅谈一下，谷歌这巨头的财报到底说明了什么，对咱币圈有啥影响?
谷歌母公司 Alphabet 交出了一份看似“无可挑剔”的成绩单。
营收、利润、云业务全部超预期，尤其是谷歌云收入达到 248亿美元，AI 基础设施需求依然强劲。
按理说，这种财报应该刺激股价上涨，但市场却给出了完全不同的答案——盘后股价一度下跌。
原因很简单：
市场现在已经不满足于增长故事，开始追问投入之后能赚多少钱。
这也是这份财报真正值得关注的地方。
过去几年，AI 最大的逻辑就是一句话：
“谁投入最多，谁就能赢得未来。”
所以微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta纷纷疯狂砸钱建设数据中心，采购GPU、存储芯片、电力资源。
而这一次，谷歌用449亿美元资本支出再次证明：
AI军备竞赛还没有结束，甚至还在加速，毫无疑问，AI就是风向！
这对于产业链来说无疑是利好。
比如：
高端存储芯片需求继续增加；
GPU供应链持续受益；
数据中心、电力、服务器相关企业仍有成长空间。
所以财报公布后，SK海力士、美光、闪迪等“卖铲子”的公司上涨，并不奇怪。
因为谷歌告诉市场：
AI的钱，还在继续烧。
但是问题也来了。
谷歌季度自由现金流转负，这意味着什么？
简单来说，就是公司赚的钱暂时覆盖不了AI基础设施投入。
投资者开始担心：
如果AI投入持续扩大，但商业回报没有同步增长，这场烧钱大战还能持续多久？
这也是为什么市场没有继续奖励谷歌。
因为现在的投资逻辑已经从：
“AI有没有未来？”
变成：
“AI什么时候真正赚钱？”
这对于整个科技市场都是一个重要信号。
未来AI板块可能会出现明显分化：
真正拥有商业化能力、现金流稳定的公司，会继续获得资金追捧。
而单纯依靠AI概念、靠高投入讲故事的公司，可能会面临估值压力。
对于币圈来说，这份财报同样值得关注。
AI和加密市场有一个共同点：
都属于高成长、高预期资产。
当市场相信未来时，资金愿意给更高估值；
但当市场开始关注现金流和盈利兑现时，风险偏好就会下降。
短期来看：
如果AI资本开支继续扩大，算力、基础设施相关赛道依然受益。
但另一方面，如果未来市场开始担心科技巨头减少投入，那么高估值成长资产可能迎来压力，包括部分AI概念币和高波动山寨币。
所以这份谷歌财报释放出的核心信号是：
AI故事没有结束，但市场可不会等你！
以前资本市场奖励的是“敢投入”。
现在市场开始奖励的是：
“投入之后，能不能产生回报。”
对于交易者来说，最大的机会依然存在，但不能再盲目追逐概念。
AI这场战争还在继续，只是接下来拼的不再是谁烧钱最多，而是谁能最快把技术变成利润。 📊 In-depth analysis of the BTC and ETH markets on the evening of July 26
🔍 Macro Perspective: Next week will be a super macro week, with a concentrated release of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, GDP, and PCE inflation data. Currently, the mainstream market expects the Fed to pause rate hikes, and funds are still betting on rate cuts within the year. As long as the Fed does not send overly hawkish signals, expectations for liquidity easing will continue to support the crypto market. Geopolitical conditions remain moderate for now, with no sustained negative shocks; the overall environment is relatively favorable for risk assets.
📈 Technical Perspective: BTC and ETH are currently steadily rising based on the moving average system, with all time-period moving averages maintaining a bullish alignment. The recent pullback is a short-term consolidation with solid support below. As long as the key support level is not effectively broken, once this round of range accumulation is complete, buyer momentum is expected to surge again, pushing prices above the resistance zone.
💡 Trading strategy (for reference only, not investment advice): BTC has strong support in the $63,500-$64,000 range. If this range holds, the target is $67,000, and after a valid breakout, the next target is $69,000. ETH has clear support in the $1800-$1850 area, with a target of $1940, and a breakout above $2100.
The market is currently in a gathering phase before choosing a direction, and attention should be paid to the confirmation of direction after next week's macro data is released.Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？
哈希在这里，答案在这里
当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这已经是Gate的公信力问题了100000 USDT、800000 ALD转入骗子钱包，恰好被Gate Alpha抓取，后续转入Gate Alpha空投。
哈希可查。
付费成功上币后，Gate称对接人不是员工。
项目顺利登陆Gate，公信力谁来负责？想向Gate求证：事实是否如你们描述？
我方支付的100000 USDT与800000 ALD先行流入第三方钱包，而后Gate Alpha自动抓取ALD代币，平台拒绝披露本次上币对接人员与流程，资产再从第三方钱包转入Gate Alpha开展空投。
所有转账哈希均可溯源，证据公开可查。
在项目完成付费、顺利上线交易后，平台单方面宣称沟通对接人员是外部骗子。
项目最终成功登陆Gate交易所，仅凭这套解释无法消除所有疑虑，此事已经严重冲击Gate市场公信力，我们要求透明、完整的官方答复。Gate的说法：我方支付的100000 USDT、800000 ALD先进入骗子钱包，碰巧Gate Alpha自动捕获ALD代币，平台拒绝公开上币对接链路，再由该钱包转账至Gate Alpha进行空投。
链上哈希就是证据。
项目付费、成功上线之后，平台才声称对接人不属于内部员工。
项目已然成功登陆Gate，整件事本质是Gate公信力重大问题，请给出合理解释！我们依照合同支付100000 USDT以及800000 ALD，资金先转入所谓“骗子”钱包，恰巧Gate Alpha自动抓取到ALD代币，平台又不肯公开本次上币完整对接流程；后续由该钱包把资产转入Gate Alpha用于空投。
链上哈希记录摆在链上，真相一目了然。
项目足额缴纳费用、顺利完成上线后，平台才告知我方全程对接人员并非Gate内部员工。
项目成功登陆Gate交易所已是既定事实，这套说辞难以自洽，严重损耗Gate自身公信力，期待官方正面清晰回应全部疑点。Brothers, have you all gotten some of SanDisk's little meats?
I told you, bottom-fishing is no problem, haha.
Let's get to the point—SNDK set an early ambush and got a little meat in hand. Here's the screenshot, check for yourself: 1479.27, today +1.09%.
Don't rush to say, "Is that all?" "—You have to see what happened yesterday. At the close of U.S. stocks on Friday, SanDisk plunged 10.79%, SK Hynix dropped 8.81%, and the entire memory chip sector was in turmoil. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 4.25% in a single day. The entire internet is shouting "Storage has peaked" and "The AI bubble has burst."
And then? Today, SNDKUSDT has taken it back directly.
That's the price difference we get here.
---
How to view the market?
Let's start with the news side. The trigger for Friday's sharp drop was a report from Morgan Stanley analysts warning that "the AI-driven storage industry carnival is approaching a turning point." At the same time, analyst Susquehanna lowered SanDisk's price target from $3,250 to $3,050.
Sounds pretty scary, right? But if you look closely—the target price is 3050, which still has 80% upside compared to the current price. Moreover, Wall Street's overall rating for SanDisk remains a "strong buy," with 21 out of 24 analysts giving a buy rating and an average target price of $2,368.
Now, let's talk about fundamentals. SanDisk's third-quarter revenue was $5.95 billion, a year-on-year surge of 251%, with gross margin soaring to 78.4%. The company's enterprise SSD revenue grew 233% quarter-on-quarter, and data center revenue soared 645% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs directly raised the target price from $1,200 to $2,200.
A company that made 6 billion in a quarter with a 78% gross margin—if it drops 10%, do you think it's over?
The technical aspects are clearer. Looking at the chart, the middle band of the BOLL20 is at 1469.84, the upper band at 1496.87, and the lower band at 1442.81. Today, the price pulled directly from the low back above the middle band, with a 24-hour low of 1438.68 and now at 1479.27—very clear bottom support. Earlier, it fell from a high of 2373, hitting a low near 1490, a drop of 900 points. A pullback at this level is either a trend reversal or a violent shakeout.
Which do you guys think it is?
---
Direction and strategy
Direction: Go long on pullbacks, go with the trend.
SNDK has risen 858% in just half a year. This level of trend won't be completely ruined by a single Morgan Stanley report. The imbalance between supply and demand for memory chips will continue until 2027, but the basic logic of expansion in AI servers and data centers remains unchanged. The drop is because the price has risen too much and needs to be digested, not because the company is failing.
Specific strategy:
· Entry section: Arranged in batches near 1445-1460
· First target: 1508
· Second target: 1549-1570
· Stop loss: below 1365
Don't hold too many positions; keep stop-loss in line with perpetual contracts. This wave is so volatile, a single needle could prick you out.
---
Trading insights
Here are a few honest points:
First, the news needs to be viewed from the other side. When the whole internet is panicked, opportunities often arise; when FOMO is everywhere, that is risk. On Friday, the storage sector plunged collectively, with headlines from various media outlets becoming increasingly alarming—at times like this, it's actually better to calmly think: Has the fundamentals changed? No change. So what is the drop? It's emotions.
Second, don't go against trends. SNDK rose 858% in half a year, but there will definitely be a pullback in between. But if you insist on shorting at this level of trend, how is that any different from catching a flying knife? Go long with the trend, buying in batches on pullbacks—it's ten thousand times more comfortable than guessing the top and bottom-fishing.
Third, confirm both technical and fundamental factors before taking action. The logic behind this ambush is simple: fundamentals are intact + price has returned to near the lower Bollinger band + previous lows provide support. Once all three conditions are met, just get to work.
Fourth, and most importantly—unity of knowledge and action. If you pick the right spot, you don't dare to go up; if you do, you can't hold on; if you do, you're afraid of falling. This is the fundamental reason most people don't make money. Once the strategy is set, just execute it—don't scare yourself.
---
That's all for today. This round wasn't huge, but the timing was right. Later, SNDK has its August 5 earnings report, and Stargate's enterprise SSD product line is about to recognize revenue for the first time—the big show is just beginning.
Brothers, let's chat in the comments—did you get a taste of this round?
$ETH $ETH
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress Luckily, I cut my losses last night, otherwise I'd have to wake up with Green Hair in the morning
Liquidation
BTC · safe haven
As of today (July 27, 2026) at 08:15, Bitcoin is trading at $65,228.8, with a 24-hour increase of 0.70%. The core driving force behind this round of rally comes from a significant easing in geopolitical tensions. On the news front, U.S. President Trump has suspended military strikes against Iran, leaving room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran stated that as long as the U.S. stops its military strikes, Iran will also cease its military operations. Boosted by this, the three major U.S. stock index futures in the Asia-Pacific market surged across the board at the opening, with precious metals and cryptocurrency markets strengthening collectively. Bitcoin rebounded above around $64,150 over the weekend and broke further above the $65,000 mark early this morning. From a technical perspective, BTC has turned the $64,000 area into strong support, with no 4-hour close below this level in the past three days. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of over $465 million on Thursday and Friday, but geopolitical factors effectively offset this selling pressure. In the short term, if optimism persists at the US market open, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the resistance range between $67,000 and $68,000. On the on-chain data front, whale addresses saw increased net inflows yesterday, with buying pressure defending key support. Overall, the cooling of geopolitical risks has provided Bitcoin with a temporary window for a rebound, but whether it can sustain its upward trend still depends on whether trading volume can be effectively amplified. $BTC $ETH #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard $ETH · Upgrade
Ethereum is quoted at $1,949.59, up 1.83% in 24 hours. The core catalyst for this rally is the official announcement of plans for Ethereum's next-generation protocol upgrade—the "Glamsterdam" upgrade. This upgrade plans to raise the Gas Limit Floor to 200 million, focusing on base layer expansion and providing medium- to long-term fundamental support for ETH. The market reacted positively, with ETH surging 0.62% in the short term from 22:00 to 22:15 (UTC) on July 26. Meanwhile, institutional accumulation is evident—well-known trader Arthur Hayes recently bought about 3,914.84 ETH through multiple market makers, at an average price of $1,908.86. Spot ETH ETFs continue to record significant capital inflows. On the supply side, ETH reserves on exchanges have dropped to a multi-year low of about 15.1 million tokens, a significant drop from over 21 million tokens a year ago, with over 658,000 ETH recently flowing out of mainstream platforms. Tight supply combined with institutional demand provides solid price support for ETH. Historically, Ethereum's July performance has been outstanding—an average increase of about 43% during a month's rise, while a decline of only about 5% in years of decline. In the short term, watch the $1,940 resistance level and the psychological barrier at $2,000; Support below is at $1,909 (Arthur Hayes average cost line). The Glamsterdam upgrade narrative is expected to continue driving ETH strength.Evening Analysis for Bitcoin and Ethereum July 26 On the macro front, next week is shaping up to be a super-heavy week with the Fed interest rate decision, GDP data, and PCE inflation numbers all dropping at once. The market consensus is that the Fed will pause on rate adjustments, while liquidity expectations remain tilted toward a rate cut later this year. As long as the Fed doesn't deliver any ultra-hawkish surprises, the crypto market should continue to benefit from this supportive liquidity📊 $SOL 爆仓速览
爆仓规模
· 1小时：$3.94万
· 4小时：$373.42万
· 12小时：$526.47万
· 24小时：$571.91万
多空分布
周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比
1h $3.87万 $765.70 98.1%
4h $9.95万 $363.47万 2.7%
12h $27.73万 $498.74万 5.3%
24h $34.07万 $537.84万 6.0%
多空解读
各周期空头爆仓碾压多头（24小时空头占94.0%），为持续极端逼空上涨行情。1小时多头爆仓略占主导（98.1%），但规模极小可视为开盘扰动；4小时和12小时空头占比高达94.7%~97.3%，为全天最剧烈逼空窗口；24小时空头爆仓$537.84万，为多头的15.8倍，空头遭毁灭性清算。最终胜出方：多头——价格呈单边暴力上涨，空头连续止损出清。
时间分布
· 1小时占24小时的 0.69%
· 4小时占24小时的 65.3%
· 12小时占24小时的 92.1%
爆仓极端集中于4-12小时周期（合计约92%），说明逼空主升浪在4-12小时内集中爆发并基本完成；24小时总量与12小时基本持平，后12小时增量极为有限。当前处于逼空行情高位尾声阶段，空头力量已基本出清，但极端涨幅后需警惕剧烈回调风险。
一句话解读
$SOL 24小时空头爆仓$537.84万占总量94%，4-12小时集中爆发逼空主升浪，多头完胜。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。
📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了
两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。
谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。
特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。
信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。
📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局
加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。
根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。
Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。
🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息
当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。
暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。
信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 $PUMP thesis + trade setup from stream last week $1M a day with worst onchain conditions is notable, one of the few stories in crypto where the issue is actually the narrative & sentiment instead of the actual fundamentals of the business if $SOL onchain picks back up this hits all time highs relatively easily, $HYPE currently trades at a 15x higher valuation & they have the same two year revenue numbers#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause 🚨 $ORDI – CONSOLIDATING – RSI 40 – OVERSOLD BOUNCE LOADING?
📊 Price: 3.811 (-0.15%) – holding above 24H low 3.602.
🔑 Resistance: 4.102 – break = 🚀 target 4.20+.
🛡️ Support: 3.856 (SAR) – reclaim needed for bullish continuation.
📈 Techs: Price below SAR but near EMAs – consolidation. MACD near zero – momentum flat. RSI6 at 40.19 – approaching oversold. KDJ oversold (K 24.19, D 32.40).
💡 Catalyst: Meme coin rotation – but $ORDI waiting for direction.
🎯 Play: Aggressive long above 3.85, stop 3.75, target 4.00–4.05. Safer: wait for SAR reclaim.
⚡ Verdict: Oversold – but SAR is the wall!
#ORDI #MemeCoin #CryptoThe market has changed
$ETH In the morning, I opened the board and took a look
The short position at 1910 is still there
But the 4-hour chart is no longer what it looked like when opening the position
Prices rose from 1887 to 1966
A strong bullish candlestick broke through 1900
MACD above the chart, golden cross, green bars with increased volume
All moving averages are turning upward
My previous shorting logic was to buy at the top
But right now, I haven't touched the top
A bottom-reversal signal has emerged
This unrealized loss of 188% looks terrifying
Opening it up, the deposit is 30U
Holding 1.5 lots, actually losing 56.4 USD
Strong Flat is at 4300, far enough not to worry
But keeping it is no longer about money
It's a matter of judgment
The short-selling logic was disproven by the market side
Even if it meant losing money, he had to leave
It's not about stopping losses, it's about admitting fault
Flatten, this page is over
$BTC has stabilized above 65,000
The daily chart is in a bullish pattern
Concerns over the weekend's liquidity depletion
This is a temporary pause
After selecting the main market direction,
Next, look for opportunities to go long
$ESP is the most eye-catching item in today's picks
The daily chart broke out from the 0.07 level with volume
One line was pulled to 0.11
Rose 19% in a single day
Transaction volume was 119 million yuan
It's not one of those dead assets where you can just draw doors for tens of thousands of dollars
Real money has been spent
But after a 19% increase, I chased after it
A drawdown of 5 to 10 points is already painful
Place a limit long order between 0.095 and 0.10
Wait until the rebound doesn't break before advancing
If it keeps pulling all the way to 0.13 without looking back,
Then it has nothing to do with me, no regrets
Three things to do today
Closed out ETH short positions
Clear out all the small coins you saw over the weekend
Put up the ESP re-order for the reaction
Once the market chooses a direction, don't short it
A loss of 56.4 U is a lesson
No need to ponder it repeatedly
Today's task is to wait for a rebound buy point
Manage your hands well, don't chase highs$OKB OKB 🔥 **$84.51**, up **+2.69%** in 24h, pushing up from yesterday's $82.55
📊 Looking directly at the market—SMA-200 is holding down at **$85.49**, and I've touched this level three times since July 16 but haven't moved past it. Yesterday, it surged to $84.88 with heavy volume and then pulled back down. But the advantage is that the RSI is only **62**, not having entered a hot zone, so it's not the kind of pattern where a surge leads to a crash.
⚠️ Trading volume is a problem—24h only $4.89 million**, 23% below the 30-day average. This rally seems more like a passive increase driven by reluctant selling, rather than active buying rushing in. The 200-day moving average at $85.49 is the most critical hurdle this week.
💎 On the fundamentals side—on 7/26, OKX just completed the **279M OKB permanent burn**, cutting the supply directly from 300 million to **21 million tokens**, the same amount as BTC. This is not an expectation, but a fact that has already happened. After the destruction, the smart contract was upgraded, with all mint and burn functions removed. **21 million is the permanent hard cap** [Source: OKX official FAQ] (https://www.okx.com/en-gb/help/x-layer-okt-okb).
🌐 The X Layer ecosystem has recently exploded—the World Cup prediction event just ended on 7/19, with **433,000 participants**, a prize pool of $4.2 million, and 136 million on-chain transactions in 30 days**, delayed <100ms。 After Exchange OS goes live, developers can build their own exchanges based on X Layer, with Chainlink, Nansen, and Pyth all joining as partners. The ecosystem's activity is on a completely different level compared to three months ago.
📉 But there's one change to note—OKB** can no longer be used to offset exchange fees**. OKX officially states that holding OKB doesn't affect fee discount tiers. This effectively removes one of the biggest reasons for holding OKB, and long-term holders may gradually loosen their stance.
🎯 Summary: $78 (SMA-50) is the solid bottom, $80-82 is the accumulation zone, and $85.49 is the must-break level this week. After volume surpassed $85.5, the next target is $90+. If shrinking volume continues to grind, the price will be sideways between $82 and $85. The $21 million hard ceiling is the strongest long-term logic, but don't chase in the short term—wait for confirmation when the $82 pullback hits.