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Last night, the US stock market staged a "hawkish pause": the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 9:3, while three regional Fed chairs opposed it [Source: Shanghai Securities News]. Chairman Wash stated that in the future, the market will no longer provide clear guidance, and investors will have to rely on economic data for their own judgment. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to 5.2%, the highest since 2007. After the announcement, U.S. stocks briefly surged, but after Wash's speech, they plunged: the S&P 500 fell 1.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell over 11% from its June high, officially entering a correction phase. The US dollar weakened, gold turned from a decline to a gain, and the fear index broke above 20. Long-term bond sell-offs are a major weakness; long-term interest rates above 5% mean that company financing costs, mortgage rates, and risk asset valuations will all be suppressed again. Last night's after-hours earnings report was polarized. Microsoft's Azure cloud business grew 43% beyond expectations, with its 2027 capital expenditure guidance lowered from 190 billion to 175 billion, surging 9% after hours. Meta's Q3 revenue guidance fell short of expectations, AI spending remains high, and the stock fell more than 7% in after-hours trading. The market is highly divided over whether "investing AI money can be recouped." However, U.S. stocks had already rebounded violently before the market opened: Nasdaq futures rose over 1.6%, Microsoft gained over 11%, and chip stocks surged across the board. After Lam Research posted results that far exceeded expectations, the stock surged over 20% at one point, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising more than 5% in pre-market trading. SanDisk rose over 12% in pre-market trading, Western Digital gained over 10%, and Micron rose over 7%. The supply and demand logic for memory chips remains intact, and AL's capital expenditures continue. $SNDK #美联储三票主张加息, today$SPCX The current stage is suitable for swing trading. Before 8/4, there will be many openings with rallies testing highs, then consolidating after rejection, testing support downward.
Previously trapped bulls can release some chips or use their ammunition to ease the pressure on their holdings.
To share an unverified viewpoint, between 8/4 and 6, it was more likely due to selling expectations and sentiment. After a deeper look, after unlocking shares, early shareholders could only transfer up to 20% of their equity, so the large-scale sell-off feared by the market would not happen, at least below expectations.
No smart money will give up SpaceX's shares; they just need to cause panic, stir emotions, and then absorb the chips.#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
PCE data is out, but the data is a bit chaotic, and the market is optimistic about crypto and silver and gold
GDP data has exploded: the preliminary annualized quarterly rate for the US Q2 was only 1.5%, compared to the expected 2.1% and the previous 2.1%, a sharp cut of 0.6 percentage points.
Consumer spending is still holding up, with the preliminary quarterly rate of 3.2% exceeding the expected 2.3% and the previous value of just 0.5%, indicating that people are still gritting their teeth and spending.
However, the annualized quarterly rate of core PCE fell from 4.4% to 3.4%, with the expected 3.5% and the monthly rate down to 0.1%, compared to the expected 0.2%. Inflation is indeed declining.
Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 yuan, expected 200,000 yuan, previous value 188,000 yuan, still holding up. Personal spending rose 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations and 0.9% previously; consumption is slowing but not crashing.
A weak GDP indicates the economy is slowing down, which is theoretically favorable for rate cuts, but consumption is still rising, which means recession is not fully confirmed. The core issue is that inflation is declining, which is a real paving way for rate cuts.
The US dollar index fell below 100, hitting a low of 99.857, the first time since 2023. When the dollar is weak, crypto is strong—the logic still holds.
Employment will collapse sooner or later, consumption will weaken, data will only get worse, rate cuts will only get closer, and bad macro news is good news for crypto. This has been discussed from the beginning to the end and has been effective.
Tonight's data gave the bears a sharp blow: rate hikes are no longer an option, and Bitcoin needs to surge.BEAT's green candle is not a true strength but a conditional rebound. If spot trading volume does not accompany it, this movement is likely to be a temporary rebound rather than a trend reversal. Currently, the market is clearly showing selective capital movement toward specific tokens. Some assets such as JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP, MEME, EDEN, HUMA, ZKP, and METIS are showing relative strength, but many like BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, RAVE, SPACE, SOPH, IP, AVNT, ZAMA, OFC, PIEVERSE, VIRTUAL, ACU, H, MEGA, and others are losing momentum. This suggests that this is not a broad rally across the entire altcoin market, but rather a narrow cycle in a region with limited liquidity. The key structural changes are the decrease in open interest and stagnant trading volume. This signals that traders are not blindly chasing price increases but carefully selecting entry points. This means risk appetite has decreased, 🚨 $CORE Narrative Timeline: From "Bitcoin's Future" to Continuous Token Unlocks
Every new narrative promised growth. Most failed to deliver.
📅 Phase 1 (2022–2023)
Bitcoin Successor
Claimed to combine Bitcoin security with smart contracts.
Technology launched but adoption remained limited.
Free Mining
Promoted zero cost mining through referrals.
Many early users ended up holding heavily depreciated tokens.
Bitcoin Layer 1
Marketed as the core chain for the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Failed to attract significant BTC liquidity.
📅 Phase 2 (2023–2024)
DeFi Expansion
Lending DEX NFTs RWA and perpetual trading were introduced.
Most products struggled with low activity or were discontinued.
Institutional Backing
Claims of major investors circulated.
Little publicly verified evidence emerged.
📅 Phase 3 (2024–2025)
BTCFi and lstBTC
Promised to unlock Bitcoin liquidity through staking.
Delays and partnership issues slowed progress.
Token Burn
Buyback and burn plans were announced.
Large scale implementation has yet to be seen.
📅 Phase 4 (2025–2026)
SatPay and Bitcoin Power Grid
Payments banking and BTC infrastructure became the new focus.
Most products remain in development with limited adoption.
📊 Current Situation
ATH: $6.47
Price: Around 99.5% below ATH
Total Supply: 2.1B $CORE
Circulating Supply: ~1.02B
More scheduled token unlocks remain ahead.
Final Takeaway
The narrative shifted from Bitcoin successor to DeFi then BTCFi then payments and infrastructure. While the vision continued to evolve many promised milestones were delayed and investors remain focused on execution rather than new narratives.
This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.The Federal Reserve had three votes in favor of a rate hike, but Chair Powell let it slide, and the US stock market initially fell as a sign of respect.
Last night, the US stock market staged a "hawkish pause": the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep interest rates unchanged, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting [Source: Shanghai Securities Journal]. Chair Powell stated that going forward, the Fed will no longer provide explicit guidance to the market, and investors must judge based on economic data themselves. The 30-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.2%—the highest since 2007.
After the decision was announced, US stocks initially rallied, but plunged immediately after Powell's speech: the S&P 500 fell 1.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped over 11% from its June peak, officially entering a correction zone. The US dollar weakened, gold reversed from a decline to a rise, and the fear index broke above 20. The sell-off in long-term bonds is a major problem; long-term rates above 5% mean that corporate financing costs, mortgage rates, and risk asset valuations all need to be reassessed downward.
After-hours earnings last night were polarized. Microsoft's Azure cloud business grew 43% exceeding expectations, and its fiscal 2027 capital expenditure guidance was lowered from 190 billion to 175 billion, with shares surging 9% after hours. Meta's Q3 revenue guidance missed expectations, AI spending remains high, and shares fell over 7% after hours. The market is highly divided on whether the money invested in AI will pay off.
However, US stocks have violently rebounded in pre-market trading: Nasdaq futures rose over 1.6%, Microsoft surged over 11%, and chip stocks exploded across the board. Lam Research's earnings greatly exceeded expectations, with shares rising over 20% at one point, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 5% pre-market. SanDisk rose over 12% pre-market, Western Digital over 10%, and Micron over 7%. The supply-demand dynamics for memory chips remain intact, and AI capital expenditures continue.Potential meme coin $ON in this round of correction: is it a shakeout before a surge or continuing to seek a bottom?
Conclusion: The potential of the meme coin is not yet destroyed, but currently only deleveraging has been completed, and a volume contraction sideways consolidation has not yet been confirmed. The price has retraced about 35% from 0.3688, open interest (OI) in the last 24 hours has dropped by 12%, funding rate has fallen to 0.005%, and leverage crowding has clearly eased;
However, the trading volume in the last 3 hours is about 27.4 million USDT, an increase of 31.9% compared to the previous 3 hours, and the 3-hour amplitude still reaches 21.8%, indicating active selling pressure during the decline. Among 21 historical meme coins, 76% experienced significant corrections before the main rise, but only 9.5% formed a strict "correction + volume contraction + sideways consolidation" pattern.
Going forward, the key observation is whether the 0.2216–0.240 range can stop the decline, and whether trading volume and amplitude can converge synchronously; only after reclaiming 0.260 and breaking through 0.285 will the main upward wave be effectively confirmed.
#ON #MemeCoinResearch #Alpha Ironwood’s security upgrade has yet to trigger a meaningful rerating for $ZEC . ZIP-318 introduces canonical balance denominations and staggered transaction broadcasts, meaning the migration process is intentionally gradual to preserve privacy — while raw transfer numbers may overstate actual user adoption.
Meanwhile, a flaw in Orchard’s circuit design raised concerns that a malicious proof could potentially create hidden value. The corrected circuit was later deployed, restoring functionality at block 3,364,600.
Despite these improvements, $ZEC has remained under pressure. From July 27 to July 30, $ZEC declined 8.1%, compared with a 2.2% drop in $BTC and only a 0.2% decline in $XMR. This relative weakness suggests the market is still pricing in a supply and trust discount, leaving $ZEC vulnerable to further underperformance until stronger demand emerges.
#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex Tonight, scrolling through Twitter, the screen is filled with shouts of "storage breakout." The hype has indeed risen, but if I only pick one, I would put STX on my watchlist.
Not because it surged sharply today. In the just-released FY26 Q4 financial report, revenue was $3.629 billion, non-GAAP gross margin was 52.7%, and free cash flow was $1.1 billion; Next quarter, guidance is set for $4.1 billion in revenue and $7.30 in EPS. Behind this rebound is at least profit and order visibility; it's not just a drop that has caused a relapse.
I value another layer more: AI not only consumes computing power but also frantically generates data. The hottest data is stored on HBM and SSDs, massive historical data, training corpora, video, and backups, and ultimately still comes down to cheaper, larger-capacity storage. HDDs that haven't been eliminated by AI may actually become the least attractive but continuously charged layer.
However, STX has already surged by double digits today, so I won't chase it. After that, it depends on two things: whether the backlash can hold its ground; Will it meet its $4.1 billion guidance next quarter? If any of these don't hold, just treat it as a financial report boost—don't use the phrase "AI storage" to justify high-level stocks.$BTC "Complete Analysis of Bitcoin's Core Network Hotspots on July 30"
In my view, all the discussion topics in the circle today revolve entirely around the cross-market linkage following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The top hotspot today: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged, hawkish statements overdrawing rate cut expectations, the dollar plunges, driving Bitcoin to a slight recovery.
For a full half month prior, the market has been anxiously predicting the Fed's policy direction.
Everyone worries that the central bank will continue tightening monetary policy, causing risk assets to remain under pressure and decline.
In this interest rate vote, 9 members supported holding steady, while 3 members insisted on a rate hike.
The hawkish tone dispelled the market's fantasy of a quick rate cut; the dollar index consequently fell below the 100 mark, and USD/JPY plunged over 300 points in a short time.
Under a briefly eased liquidity atmosphere, Bitcoin passively rose above the $65,000 level.
But I truly feel this rally lacks its own buying support and purely depends on forex and U.S. stock market fluctuations.
$ETH The second trending hotspot: The U.S. stock storage sector violently rebounds from near death, while crypto trading volume lags far behind U.S. stocks.
SanDisk's single-day gain exceeded 21%, Micron and SK Hynix surged about 15% across the board.
The single-day trading volume of just these two storage stocks already surpasses the combined 24-hour spot trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Traders in the circle lament that the crypto market has completely become a shadow subsidiary of U.S. stocks.
U.S. stocks have trillions of institutional funds entering to bottom-fish, while crypto only has retail and small funds battling back and forth.
When the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin dares to follow with a slight increase; once the Nasdaq surges then falls, crypto's pullback will definitely exceed that of the U.S. stock market.
$SOL The third hot topic: The whole network debates whether the "bull return speed" is a brief sentiment or a market turning point.
In recent days, Bitcoin continuously fell, countless leveraged longs were liquidated and exited, and market pessimism spread.
After the external markets warmed up tonight, many traders instantly reversed their mindset, shouting that the bull market has returned and urging to enter quickly.
Based on multiple bull and bear experiences, I judge that this is merely a technical rebound after a sharp drop.
The two core negatives—excess inventory in the storage chip industry and the global high interest rate environment—have not improved at all.
The rally fueled by euphoric sentiment always has a very short lifespan.
The fourth hot detail in the circle: Bitcoin spot ETFs ended continuous redemptions and saw a slight net inflow of funds.
In the previous four days, U.S. spot ETFs had daily outflows, with institutions continuously reducing positions to avoid risk.
After the interest rate decision, funds slightly flowed back, with a single-day net inflow of $32.1 million.
However, the 30-day cumulative net outflow remains huge, and large institutions are still gradually withdrawing in the medium to long term.
Without large-scale new funds entering, the market naturally struggles to sustain a continuous rally.
The fifth cautionary topic: Nearly 90,000 people were liquidated in contracts within 24 hours; two-way stop hunting remains the norm.
The dollar and U.S. stocks fluctuate back and forth, causing Bitcoin to repeatedly oscillate slightly up and down.
Whether chasing longs or shorts, leveraged traders are easily stopped out by short-term volatility.
The majority of retail investors remain trapped in the mindset dilemma of hesitating to take profits during rallies and fearing holding positions during declines.
Overall, today's Bitcoin market fluctuations are entirely controlled by U.S. liquidity.
Can the crypto market, which lacks independent momentum, really hold the current price after a brief recovery?
#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ The market structure has changed, and is the market now systematically "strangling" traditional strategies? #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE becomes a new highlight
Given today's situation, the difficulty lies in three "contradictions":
"Good performance" equals a "big drop": Today, Alphabet and Tesla are typical examples—their performance is decent, but the market doesn't recognize "spending money" and only "making money," and after the earnings report, they plunged directly. Fundamental analysis failed; the bullish outlook was bearish, and the negative side became even more bearish.
"Rate cut" equals "rate hike" expectations: The Fed is divided internally, and the market is betting on a rate hike in September. Any economic data release triggers both interpretations of "soft landing" and "stagflation," with macro logic fluctuating intraday.
Large-cap stocks are as volatile as MEME stocks: Nvidia and Apple fluctuate five or six points in a single day, while tech stocks are more volatile than Bitcoin. Technical support is virtually useless; a single piece of news can instantly break through.
In this environment, forcing yourself to fight will only wear down your principal. Here are three counterintuitive survival tips for you:
1. Proactively reduce leverage and reduce positions: Lower your position to a level where "even if it drops 5% tomorrow, you can sleep peacefully." The current primary goal is not to make money, but to survive and wait for volatility to return.
2. Abandon the left-side "bottom-fishing": now connect with Flying Knife, and there's a basement below. Before the right-side signals emerge (such as a sharp drop in the VIX or the Fed's clear dovish tone), only engage in and exit intraday fast buys and exits on oversold rebounds, never holding positions overnight.
3. Embrace "cash" and "time": Since stocks and cryptocurrencies are experiencing major volatility, it's better to significantly increase your cash or quasi-cash (short-term) allocation. When U.S. Treasury yields are above 5%, patiently waiting with interest is itself a form of profit.$NBIS NBIS's fundamentals are tough enough to grit teeth, but don't act impulsively after a short-term surge!
If you're already stuck:
First, don't rush to chase the 189 position. It has already risen 27% today, which is too large in the short term and could pull back at any time. Let's see if it can break through 200.
Second, 200 is a psychological threshold. Break through and hold firm, next target is 224 (50-day moving average). If you can't break through, once a double top forms, it's a pullback.
Third, set the stop-loss at 170. If it breaks, it's a new low—run decisively.
If you are short and want to get on board:
First, wait for a pullback before advancing. It rose 27% today; chasing in is like carrying someone else's sedan chair. The 170-180 range is a good test position, with stop-loss placed below 160.
Second, build positions in batches. 180 in the first batch, 170 in the second, 160 in the third batch. Bullets are always left behind.
Third, don't shuttle a lot. Before the August 12 earnings report, there will be significant volatility. If the earnings report exceeds expectations, it's like a rocket launch; if it falls short of expectations, it means the price keeps plunging.
If you want to short the market:
Don't be short now! Today, it surged 27%, showing strong bullish momentum. If you really want to short, wait until it hits 200-210 and can't go up before reconsidering.
Friends, remember these three iron rules:
1. NBIS is not an air coin. It has backing from listed companies in the US stock market, endorsement from Nvidia, and real business experience. This is the regular army within the regular army.
2. However, short-term uncertainty is enormous. Insider sell-offs, soaring capital expenditures, and competition from Meta—three major obstacles weigh down.
3. The August 12 earnings report is the biggest variable. Beating expectations is like a rocket launch; falling short of expectations means continued plunge.
Finally, let me say something heartfelt: friends, NBIS fell from 280 to 148, then rebounded from 148 back to 189—this rebound was ignited by Microsoft's earnings report, not a fundamental reversal. Microsoft's Azure is indeed impressive, but Nebius's own problems—insiders selling $140 million, capital expenditure $20 billion, Meta trying to steal business—haven't solved any of them.
The wind has already come (up 27% today), but don't stand too high at the wind's peak—the wind has stopped, and those who fall the hardest are the ones standing tallest. Friends, wait for a pullback before getting in—don't chase the highs!🔥 #英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt
NVIDIA and Google join forces to make a big move: left hand guarantees chips, right hand sells chips. How much longer can AI's leverage game last?
Guys, the AI community has been blowing up lately.
Nvidia and Google have dropped two major bombshells in the past two days—both providing massive debt guarantees for AI data centers. NVIDIA is negotiating $250 billion to help OpenAI rent data centers, and reportedly may need an additional $350 billion for OpenAI to buy chips; Google has already committed $44 billion in lease guarantees, raising it from $6.5 billion to $44 billion in one go.
Sounds impressive, right? But the market reaction was interesting—as soon as the news broke, Nvidia's stock plunged 5% in a single day, and the five-year credit default swap (CDS) surged 14 basis points to a historic high. Google's CDS also soared to a record high of 67 basis points.
What is the market afraid of? What is wary is these four words—circular financing.
In plain language: NVIDIA guarantees OpenAI to rent data centers, which are stuffed with NVIDIA chips, and NVIDIA even lends money to buy these chips from OpenAI. Money flows from the left pocket to the right, and the left hand is transferred to the right. If AI demand falls short of expectations and customers can't pay back, NVIDIA not only has to bear losses from chip sales but also has to guarantee losses.
This is no longer "selling shovels"; it is buying shovels for customers with loans.
Google, on the other hand, is playing the same script—using financial guarantees to help data centers secure low-cost debt financing, then arranging "circular financing" to bring some funds back through chip procurement. The goal is clear: to use NVIDIA's approach to capture NVIDIA's AI chip business.
A deeper issue is that the entire AI industry is being drowned in debt.
Since 2026, giants like Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Meta have issued a combined $182 billion in investment-grade bonds, a year-on-year increase of 1300%. The off-balance-sheet debt of the five giants has ballooned to $1.65 trillion, an eightfold increase over four years. Some institutions predict that by 2029, global AI-related debt may exceed $7 trillion.
NVIDIA has transformed from a "chip seller" into an "AI central bank"—using its $3 trillion balance sheet to support the entire industry.
This AI leverage game is about real money, betting on future computing power demand. But the credit market never pays for dreams. As the debt chain stretches longer, any problem at any link could trigger a chain reaction.
Guys, the AI's story hasn't collapsed, but the gameplay is changing. Previously, the market valued those who burned the most money and expanded quickly; Now the market is asking—after burning so much money, can you really earn it back?
This battle was far from over. U.S. tech stocks did not all fall together; instead, they became completely differentiated ⚠️
QQQ had pulled back about 7.8% in July, but rebounded around 2.6% intraday tonight. Nvidia rose about 2.6%, Tesla rose about 2.3%, but Meta plunged about 9% after its earnings report.
This isn't a complete exit from tech stocks; it's more like funds starting to pick talent: those whose earnings and expectations can withstand the rebound continue, but if the guidance is slightly weak, valuations are immediately cut.
In the short term, the key is whether QQQ can hold the 670–662 range. If it holds, tech stocks still have room to recover; If it falls below tonight's low again, it means this rebound is just a breather.
Individual stocks are eyeing NVDA at $190, TSLA at $300, and META around $524.
The most dangerous thing now isn't that all tech stocks are falling, but holding weak stocks and thinking that a sector rebound will take them down with them 👀
$QQQ $NVDA $TSLA The reason behind SK Hynix's rally has been found!!
The main reason for SK Hynix's recent rally! and sharing methods for handling multiple orders!!
I'm Ci Ge. I've gotten long positions at 908.37 so far, and the floating profit is already very substantial. Today's big bullish candlestick directly pulled the market back. First, let's talk about why it rose, then how to handle it.
Today's aggressive rally is due to four overlapping drivers
First, Choi Tae-won's first personal purchase directly ignited the emotions. On July 30, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won bought 3,620 shares of SK Hynix, totaling about 4.8 billion KRW. This is the first time Choi Tae-won has directly held SK Hynix shares in his personal name. Before this, he had never directly held shares and only controlled them indirectly through SK Square. After the stock price dropped from 2.18 million won to 1.32 million won, the chairman personally stepped in to buy shares, signaling a strong signal. After the regulatory documents were disclosed, SK Hynix turned from a decline to a gain in pre-market trading.
Second, the storage sector collectively shorted and rebounded. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 7%, SanDisk surged about 20%, Seagate Technology rose about 18%, Western Digital rose about 16%, Micron Technology rose about 11%, and SK Hynix rose about 11%. The US chip and semiconductor sector surged collectively before the market opened, with a strong sector synergy.
Third, Microsoft's earnings exceeded expectations, and AI narratives were restored. Microsoft rose about 8.5% in after-hours trading, Azure cloud revenue grew 43%, surpassing $100 billion for the first time this fiscal year. As the first major tech company to lower its capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2027, Microsoft is spending less and earning more. Market concerns about AI hardware demand have been dispelled, and storage chips as AI infrastructure have benefited simultaneously.
Fourth, institutions collectively bullish, with Daiwa's target price at 3 million won and UBS's target price at 204 USD. On July 28, Goldman Sachs held a webinar for Korean storage experts, where experts believe that traditional DRAM prices will maintain double-digit percentage growth this year, and HBM has room for significant price increases or even doubling next year. Multiple forces have resonated together.
908.37 Follow-up Handling Method for Long Orders
The profit was taken in four installments. The first batch sold 20% near the current price (around the 1100-1150 range), locking in some profits. In the second batch, the 1200-1250 range is further flattened by 25%. In the third batch, the 1350-1400 area is further flattened by 25%. In the fourth batch, the remaining 30% above 1500 yuan was completely liquidated.
Moving stop is executed. The current stop loss has been moved up below 950, and for every 100-point increase, the price moves up by 50 points. At 1100, the stop loss was moved up from 950 to 1000; To 1200, moving up from 1000 to 1050. This ensures that profits are not all given back. If the price pulls back to the 1000-1050 area without breaking below the moving stop, you can add positions in that area, with overall stop-losses consistently below 950.
Ci Ge finished speaking. This deal was a chip brought out from the deepest panic, and Choi Tae-won personally stepped in—don't let short-term fluctuations scare you off. Set your stop-loss and take profits in batches—hold on. Think carefully. #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入, Finance Minister apologizes for leveraged ETFs. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes a new highlight tonight. #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion $SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH Let's talk about the $XSNDK SanDisk evening market
During the day, there was a strong rally, with the lowest of 972 directly hitting the high of 1264, a single-day gain of over 22%.
The core logic of the rise is linked to sentiment in the US semiconductor sector, with concentrated capital flowing in driving a short-term breakout.
Currently, there are two key points on the market:
1. After a rapid surge, bullish momentum slows down, and prices fall from their highs into a short-term fluctuation and digestion;
2. Resistance above is around 1249, with support anchored at 1158. Whether it can continue to strengthen depends on sector sentiment and volume matchingHere is a breakdown of what this chart (**xSPCX/USDT**, representing SpaceX pre-market tokenized equity) is showing, explained in simple everyday terms.
## 📊 Market Breakdown
* **Current Price:** **$115.14** (up **+1.72%** today).
* **24h Range:** High of **$118.94** | Low of **$110.51**.
* **Current Trend:** **Bottoming & Consolidating.** After a sharp drop from its high of **$137.66** down to a bottom near **$107.19**, the price is attempting to stabilize. It is currently trading right between its 5-day moving average (**MA5:** $113.99) and 10-day moving average (**MA10:** $115.30).
## 🔮 Best Technical Prediction
### 📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above Resistance)
* **Immediate Target:** **$118.90 – $122.50**
* **Why:** The price is making higher lows off the **$107.19** support level and is sitting right on top of its short-term trendline (**MA5:** $113.99). If buyers can push past the 10-day average (**$115.30**) and break the 24-hour high of **$118.94**, it could trigger a recovery bounce toward **$XSPCX 122.50**.
### 📉 Bearish Scenario (Retest of Bottom Support)
* **Key Support Area:** **$107.20 – $SPCX 110.50**
* **Why:** If the price fails to break above the 10-day moving average (**$115.30**), sellers could push it back down to test the 24-hour low of **$110.51**. A breakdown below that level would put the key support line at **$SPCX 107.19** back in focus.
> ⚠️ **Disclaimer:** *Pre-market assets and tokenized equities carry elevated market risk and volatility. Technical analysis shows probability based on chart patterns, not guarantees. Always trade responsibly!*
> Both Microsoft and Meta spent tens of billions of dollars on graphics cards this year, yet their financial reports told two completely different AI stories. Microsoft proved its AI can be directly monetized with Azure Cloud's 43% growth and 30 million paying enterprise seats, causing its stock price to soar; Meanwhile, Meta was ruthlessly dumped by Wall Street due to a 91% plunge in free cash flow. If you ask me, in this trillion-dollar computing power arms race, which story is more worth trusting with real money? My answer is clear: I trust Microsoft's ledger more. This is not because Zuckerberg's vision for AI agents is not grand enough, but because, under the law of gravity in finance, B2B's direct self-sufficiency always has a higher margin of safety than B2C's winding monetization. This raises the first question: Why is Microsoft's AI monetization model currently the strongest moat in the industry? Look at Microsoft's current AI charging logic: it has quietly upgraded from the original simple "per-seat" model to a dual-track model of "seats + flexible pay-as-you-go" billing. Many of my fellow tech developers are now renewing GitHub Copilot every month, and companies are ordering Office 365 Copilot in bulk. As long as you use its AI to handle tasks, Microsoft can earn monthly fees per seat. At the same time, as enterprises use Azure AI large models to process more business data, Microsoft can also be elastic based on API call volume$SKHY Recently, it plummeted sharply to a low of 114.15
Today, the US semiconductor chip sector surged collectively, lifting it up
It rose more than 12 points in a single day
From a low of 120.29 to a high of 149.10, bottom-fishing funds entered with increased volume#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？
After Microsoft $MSFT released its Q4 earnings report, the stock price reached around $425 in the after-hours trading recorded on Microsoft's investor relations page, about 8.8% higher than the regular close.
Actually, there is another set of numbers appearing side by side: this quarter's revenue was $90 billion, and capital expenditures plus finance leases were $41 billion. One reflects the company's speed in making money, the other the speed at which the company continues to invest heavily in AI and data centers.
In recent quarters, Microsoft's biggest issue was not "whether it can do AI." The real market bottleneck was whether the money spent could turn into revenue, rather than just staying stuck on GPUs, data centers, and the OpenAI relationship. Yesterday's earnings report at least gave a firmer answer than previous quarters.
Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 43% year-over-year, exceeding the market's original expectation of around 40%. Intelligent Cloud revenue was $39.3 billion, up 32% year-over-year. Microsoft's broad cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, up 27% year-over-year. If you only say "cloud business is strong," these numbers would be understated.
Initially, it was thought that the after-hours surge was mainly due to Azure's impressive growth, but flipping to the cash flow statement revealed that the market was actually looking at both sides simultaneously. Free cash flow was still $19.6 billion but down 23% year-over-year; in the same quarter, capital expenditures and finance leases jumped 69% year-over-year. This is not easy growth; it is very expensive growth.
Microsoft can temporarily get investors to accept this spending because of two things that have already translated into revenue. Azure's full fiscal year revenue exceeded $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats surpassed 30 million, up from just over 20 million in April. In other words, AI is finally not just a demand talked about on conference calls but is starting to appear in cloud bills and software seats.
AP quoted Zacks investment strategist Bryan Hayes saying that the market is willing to believe this time that Microsoft’s spending has bought something real. I think this statement closely matches the after-hours reaction. Previously, people feared AI Capex was bottomless, but now seeing revenue, orders, and seats all rising, doubts have been pushed back a notch.
Don't overestimate net profit growth here either. Microsoft's Q4 net profit was $35.8 billion, GAAP EPS $4.81, but this includes a $3.2 billion gain from Anthropic investment and non-GAAP adjustments from OpenAI investments. The company’s operations are indeed strong, but the investment accounting also makes the quarterly numbers more complex.
The management's guidance for the next quarter also explains why $MSFT surged after hours. Microsoft expects next quarter revenue to be about $89.85 billion to $90.95 billion, with Azure growing 45% at constant currency, exceeding StreetAccount's expectations. The capital expenditure plan has not been increased further, which also relieved the market.
The real breakthrough in this earnings report is that Microsoft has broken down the phrase "AI is expensive" into a calculable account. It is indeed expensive, with $41 billion spent in one quarter; but if Azure continues to grow over 40%, and Copilot seats keep increasing, investors are willing to give it time.
Conversely, if Azure's growth slows down later, or Copilot seat growth decelerates, and free cash flow continues to be pressured by Capex, the market's patience will shorten. What this earnings report has bought $MSFT is not a free pass but time to prove next quarter that this AI investment can turn into cash.
#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% Say goodbye to one-dimensional thinking: understand the stagflation risks behind GDP and grasp the main trend going forward. #Fed's three votes advocate for rate hikes, and tonight's PCE becomes a new highlight $BTC
Many traders interpreted it at first glance: economic weakness, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, and broadly positive news for risk assets.
But the vast majority overlook the internal data structure: overall growth is slowing, consumption remains resilient, and inflation hasn't quickly died down.
This data does not provide a clear answer; instead, it puts the Fed in a dilemma, with the market on the verge of a volatile market driven by repeated expectations. Betting solely on one-sided positive trends is easy to get shakeout back and forth.
1. Core Data Reveals True Colors: Identifying Market Misconceptions
The annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 1.5%, below the market expectation of 1.8%, and the previous value of 2.1% in the first quarter, clearly showing a slowdown in growth.
Key Breakdown of Internal Structure (Most Easily Overlooked on the Internet):
1. Dragging factors: Net export decline, government spending contraction, and slowdown in medium- and long-term corporate investment are the core reasons for the GDP decline;
2. Support items: Household consumption expenditure growth reached 3.2%, significantly stronger than expected, and domestic demand has not collapsed;
3. Synchronized inflation: Core PCE was slightly below expectations, but the inflation center remains well above the Fed's 2% target.
To sum up the data characteristics in one sentence: economic slowdown≠ demand collapse, cooling growth≠ and rapid decline in inflation.
This is the most critical contradiction, and the root cause of repeated market fluctuations.
2. Two major opposing trading logics, causing severe market capital fragmentation
Bullish logic (betting on rate cut expectations)
The economy continues to cool, and the suppressive effects of high interest rates keep emerging. Consecutive GDP declines will constrain the Fed's confidence in maintaining its hawkish stance.
The market lowered the probability of further rate hikes, moving the rate cut window forward in advance.
Transmission path: US Treasury yields falling by $→ pressured by → which is positive for Nasdaq growth stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and other highly sensitive assets.
Bearish Logic (Stagflation Concerns Suppressing Valuation)
Consumption remains strong, indicating a solid demand base and a difficult time for inflation to decline quickly.
Even as the economy weakens, inflation remains sticky, and the Fed is reluctant to start cutting rates lightly.
If rate cuts are delayed, the slow-downpending economy combined with stubborn inflation will raise expectations of stagflation.
In a stagflation environment, growth stocks are under valuation pressure; Gold will benefit in the short term, but risk assets will find it difficult to sustain a major rally.
Here's a truth:
Simply weakening GDP is no longer a one-way bullish signal.
After 2020, the market's pricing logic had long changed: a healthy slowdown (inflation falling in tandem) benefited the market; Weak growth + stubborn inflation is the biggest nightmare in the capital market.
3. Transmission and simulation of major assets
1. US Stock Nasdaq
In the short term, it is likely to break out of a pulse rebound, but its sustainability is questionable.
If employment and consumption data remain resilient going forward, and Fed officials continue to deliver hawkish remarks, a rebound is highly likely to rally and then retreat.
Intensified sector differentiation: stable cash flow and stronger resilience in defensive assets; Growth stocks with high valuations and expectations of forward rate cuts have seen amplified volatility.
2. Gold
There are structural opportunities, but don't blindly chase highs.
Slowing growth has long suppressed real interest rates, supporting gold at the bottom;
But as long as inflation does not continue to decline, expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates will not disappear completely, and upside space will remain limited. The market is highly likely to fluctuate widely, repeatedly rising and falling back.
3. Bitcoin crypto market
In the short term, it fluctuates in sync with risk appetite.
Key note: If the market shifts from a "benign slowdown" to a "stagflation panic," BTC will return to its high-beta risk asset status.
In a volatile environment, correlations with the Nasdaq fluctuate between high and low; do not rely solely on U.S. stock signals for decision-making.
4. Crude oil
Pressure on both sides. Economic cooling suppresses long-term demand expectations; Ongoing geopolitical conflicts support safe-haven premiums, with crude oil entering a range-bound tug-of-war. 🚨 Everyone's waiting for a reason to panic... but $ETH hasn't given them one.
Despite all the macro uncertainty, $ETH continues to hold above both its 21-day and 50-day moving averages. As long as those levels stay intact, I still think the path of least resistance is higher.
Today could be the catalyst.
📊 PCE inflation and Advance GDP are both due, giving the market fresh data to price in.
Warsh recently said policymakers won't just be watching the numbers—they'll also be watching how markets react before making their next move.
If inflation comes in close to expectations and the market likes what it sees, a Nasdaq rebound wouldn't be surprising. That could quickly shift attention back toward the Clarity Act and other crypto-positive catalysts.
For now, the trend hasn't broken.
I'm staying bullish on $ETH until the charts give me a reason not to be.
#ETH #Crypto #Ethereum
#DailyOrbit 微軟三個分部的利潤率差距：Azure 增長最快，不代表 Intelligent Cloud 最賺
微軟 FY2026 Q4 的三個分部不能只用收入增速排序。Productivity and Business Processes 收入 378.47 億美元、營業利潤 219.00 億美元，簡單計算分部營業利潤率約 57.9%；Intelligent Cloud 收入 393.06 億美元、營業利潤 159.55 億美元，分部利潤率約 40.6%；More Personal Computing 收入 128.54 億美元、營業利潤 27.48 億美元，約為 21.4%。這些比率來自官方分部表格的收入與營業利潤相除，不是公司另行公布的調整後指標。
收入增長最快的是 Intelligent Cloud，按年增加 32%，Azure and other cloud services 增長 43%。但 Azure 是產品與服務口徑，Intelligent Cloud 是會計分部，還包含伺服器產品及其他雲端服務。不能把 43% 當成整個分部收入增速，也不能把 40.6% 稱為 Azure 獨立利潤率。兩組數字回答的是不同問題：前者看產品動能，後者看分部收入扣除成本與營運費用後留下多少利潤。
Productivity and Business Processes 的收入只增長 14%，分部營業利潤卻達 219 億美元，是三個分部最高。Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud 報告口徑增長 14%，Consumer cloud 增長 24%，LinkedIn 增長 12%，Dynamics 365 增長 13%。成熟訂閱業務的高毛利和規模效應仍然重要，所以「增速較慢」不等於對集團利潤貢獻較低。
Intelligent Cloud 的成本結構亦值得拆開。分部成本收入 168.76 億美元，營運費用 64.75 億美元；去年同期分別為 118.45 億和 58.93 億美元。收入增加 94.28 億美元，同期成本收入增加 50.31 億美元，顯示算力、資料中心與產品組合正在吸收一部分增量。官方 Microsoft Cloud 毛利率為 65%，去年為 68%，但該指標跨越多個分部，同樣不能替代 Intelligent Cloud 分部利潤率。
More Personal Computing 則是另一個方向。收入下降 4%，其中 Windows OEM and Devices 下降 7%，XBOX content and services 下降 10%，搜尋廣告扣除流量取得成本後增長 10%。分部營業利潤由 31.90 億降至 27.48 億美元。搜尋的正增長沒有抵銷 Windows 與遊戲的下滑，這說明微軟並非所有產品線都受同一波 AI 需求推動。
合併口徑的營業利潤為 406.03 億美元，約佔 900.07 億美元收入的 45.1%。三個分部利潤加總與合併營業利潤一致，但分部之間的資本密度、收入確認和產品組合不同。用單一合併利潤率判斷 Azure 的獲利能力，會把 Microsoft 365 的高利潤和 MPC 的低增長混在一起。
因此，這份財報的分部閱讀順序應是：先看每個分部的收入與營業利潤，再看官方產品增速，最後才討論 AI。可以確認 Intelligent Cloud 是增長引擎，Productivity and Business Processes 是最大分部利潤來源，MPC 則仍有壓力；不能確認的是 Azure 的獨立收入、獨立毛利或生成式 AI 的單獨回報，因為公司沒有在本季表格中披露這些數字。SpaceX has secured a $1.6 billion military contract, can it be bought at the bottom?
Can't save a $1.6 billion deal, is SpaceX really the next "good company, bad stock"?
The $1.6 billion large order rose by 0.31% after hours. 0.31%.
This scene is too magical-the US Space Force personally took the stage, and $1.6 billion was thrown in, and the stock price seemed to have no reaction.
A month ago, it was the sexiest stock in the universe. 6 On December 12th, it was the largest IPO in history at $135. On the third day, it surged to $225.64, with a market value exceeding $2.6 trillion, stepping on Microsoft and beating Amazon.
And now?
113 US dollar. The high point was halved by 52%. The market value evaporated by $1.2 trillion-losing an entire Tesla.
The bearish people say: This company is not worth the money.
2025 The net loss for the whole year was $4.9 billion, and in the first quarter of 2026, the loss was $4.476 billion, almost equal to the full year of last year.
IPO valuation is 1.77 trillion yuan, equivalent to 95 times the price-to-sales ratio. 140 times at the high point.
Wall Street's big bear Michael Barry directly sprayed: "Even $1 trillion is not worth it. "Senior investors are more ruthless: "The fair value is only $30 per share. "
The shorts have bet $25 billion, or 32 percent of the market. Three weeks ago, that number was 5 to 7 percent.
The people who watch it say: You don't understand this company.
Starlink's revenue in 2025 is $11.4 billion, with an operating profit of $4.4 billion. The military orders continue to flow-just signed 4.16 billion in May, and now an additional 1.6 billion. Morgan Stanley's target price is $300, and Goldman Sachs is $205.
This is the only one in the world that can reuse rockets.
Good company, right?
But "good company" does not equal "good stock."
8 On June 6th, the first batch of 911.5 million shares were unlocked. At the current stock price, it's worth more than $100 billion. By the end of the year, tradable shares had skyrocketed from 639 million to 5.33 billion-an increase of more than seven times.
$$SPCX After two consecutive losses, this time I just reopened a long position!
PCE cools down + Microsoft assists, long positions gain 3.8%
📌 Let's look at the battle record first
SNDK long position, average opening price 1234.29, current price 1237.27, unrealized profit +3.80%
Earlier, I went against the trend to buy the dip and lost two days in a row, losing 11.36 USD. This time, waiting for the positive news to take effect before making a move, he finally survived.
🔍 Why do you think this time it will succeed?
Two positive factors ignite the market together:
(1) PCE data has finally dropped
Tonight's June core PCE was released, marking the first decline since 2020. The Fed's most valued inflation indicator has cooled, reducing the urgency of rate hikes. Although there are three votes internally supporting rate hikes, Wash said, "Rising yields have done a lot of work for the Fed," which reassured the market.
(2) Microsoft cuts capital expenditures, surging 8.5% after hours
Microsoft's financial report exceeded expectations, cutting its capital expenditure for fiscal year 2027 from 190 billion to 175 billion. The market interpreted this as giants starting to talk about investment returns, rather than mindlessly burning cash and igniting sentiment.
📉 Why did you lose money before?
Two and multiple orders, all buried:
Opening price closing price Loss
1068.79 1019.27 -6.16U
1102.83 1054.31 -5.2U
There are only three reasons:
· Bottom-fishing against the trend, always feeling "After dropping so much, it's time for a rebound."
· Ignore the footprint chart warning (selling still dominates)
· Rushing into the market before the good news materializes
📊 What do you think comes next?
SNDK fell from 1518 to 972, a drop of more than 500 points. This rebound has reached 1230+, with resistance near the MA5 (1236).
If it can hold above 1250, the upper level should be 1280-1300
If it falls below 1200, it could test the bottom again
Take this trade for now, targeting 1250-1280, with a stop loss set at 1185.
💡 This bar has 11 experience points
Don't rush to bottom-fish before good news materializes. The direction is right, the position is right, and the timing must be right.
These two orders are worth the loss, remember.
🎯 Summary
Direction: Go long ✅
Location: 1234 ✅
Timing: Wait for PCE data to be realized ✅
Family, this time we're heading in the right direction. 🙏
(This is purely a personal trading record and does not constitute investment advice.) ）
$SNDK
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
#微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading Damn, I lost 321U! My girlfriend checked my phone and saw the transaction history, asking, "Is the rent enough this month?" I stared at the screen, speechless.
🛠️ Guess what?
I'm still holding my short position, $ETH it has risen to 1918, and this dog farm still hasn't sold the long position. Tip: Reverse order stop-loss method
Don't foolishly set fixed stop-losses; combine moving stop-loss + psychological price levels. For example, if you lose a short position, don't rush to cut it off. Wait until the price rebounds to the key moving average level before acting, provided your position can hold up.
Principles + practical case studies
1. Check moving average positions: MA7 at 1921.6, MA30 at 1908.9. Prices fluctuate between the two, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. But RSI is only 51.61, the neutral zone is not overbought, MACD red bars are still on volume, and bullish momentum hasn't been exhausted—holding firm at this time is like giving away money ✅
2. Practical case: I opened my position at 1893.7, with 26x leverage, and the current price is 1918.9. On the surface, I lost 321U, but the key is to judge the rebound ceiling. The 24-hour high was 1937. If it had surged there, my margin of 929U would have basically exploded. So I placed my first stop-loss order at 1925, not based on technical skill but on psychological position—round number level plus near MA7.
3. Core logic: stop-loss should not only look at the loss percentage, but also at key price levels and holding time. Although the funding rate for perpetual contracts is only 0.001%, the cumulative cost of long-term holding is still a bit much. Guess why I chose 1925? Because 1920-1930 is the concentrated trading zone over the past 4 hours; breaking below this means accelerating.
Note: Placing a contrarian order is not about holding on; it's about giving the market a chance to catch its breath.
But at most, it can hold up to key resistance levels (such as the MA7 or the 24-hour high); once it does, you must cut your position. Positions must be light!
My 26x is already heavy, beginners shouldn't learn from it. Margin is 929U, if the direction is reversed, stop loss set at within 10%.
$ETH
#摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETP Everyone's celebrating the gentle 5% bounces in $ADA and $SUI, but I've got the receipts to confirm the crypto market is a high-stakes game of Jenga. The moment you start to get complacent is when the smart money starts to quietly pull the rug.
The current tape is a masterclass in deception: $INJ soars 5.40% on a seemingly innocuous update, while $SHIB limps along at -1.70%. Meanwhile, the true heavy hitters are trading in the shadows. $BTC's price stability is an illusion – beneath the surface, whales are accumulating $OPG, a token that quietly passed $1 million in daily volume, a number that dwarfs $LTC and $DASH. And don't even get me started on $ARB's suspicious trading patterns.
The crypto market is no longer about "HODL and pray" for another moonshot; it's about finding the few liquidity pockets left in the aftermath of the Great Leverage War. Stop chasing the hype; start sniffing out the value in the dust.#财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? Let's discuss$SATS SATS fundamentals have improved, but short-term risks are huge—don't act impulsively!
If you're already stuck:
First, face reality. With a drop of over 99% from its historical peak, it's basically impossible to break even. Run if you can; every rebound is a chance to escape.
Second, don't add to your positions. Adding positions during a downturn—the more you add, the more you lose. Bro: "From IPO subscription to a hundredfold increase but no gain, then replenishing on pullbacks, now back to cost"—a lesson from the past!
If you want to bottom-fish to buy a short position:
Don't copy it! Coins have dropped over 99% from their all-time highs—whether there's still eighteen levels of hell beneath the surface, no one knows. Sats Network's long-term logic exists, but its short-term price hasn't stabilized yet. Let's wait until it truly stabilizes.
If you want to short the market:
Don't short now! Bearish sentiment is extremely crowded, and consensus bearish is often a signal for reversal. Moreover, the BRC-20 sector has just finished its rally, and another rebound could happen at any time to crush the bears.
Friends, remember these three iron rules:
1. A coin that has dropped 99% can still drop another 99%. Don't try to buy the dip just because "it has fallen enough."
2. All good news is negative. Sats Network went live, but the price didn't rise—what was supposed to run has already gone off.
3. Don't touch contracts. 4.75 million contracts vs. 1.42 million spot positions—leveraged funds are cutting each other, retail investors entering is just giving away the kill.
Finally, let me say something heartfelt: folks, SATS has fallen from the king of the inscription era to its current price, and there's a reason for it. Sats Network has given it a new narrative—from 'commemorative coin' to 'gas token'—but that will take time to prove. If the ecosystem is up, it's a treasure; If the ecosystem doesn't, it's just grass. Rushing in now is gambling.
Faith can't be used as food; it will only make you lose judgment in the fleeting profits, and your IQ will drop to zero. Friends, hold on to your principal and wait until the wind really comes!1. Basic Background of the Market Before this round of rally, the storage sector underwent continuous deep adjustments, with the sharp drop in the Korean stock market leading to collective selling by SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron. Negative expectations for concentrated market trading: marginal slowdown in AI capital spending by cloud providers, release of forward storage capacity, and peak of the economic cycle. This round of accelerated early morning rally without any sudden exclusive major announcements or official new flash memory price increases, reflecting a "catalyst validating expectations + oversold capital behavior" resonating with the market. II. Core Drivers of Growth 1. Key Sector Catalyst: Seagate's Better-than-Expected Financial Report Repairs Overall Sector Sentiment Seagate Technology released its post-market earnings report, with revenue, net profit, and next quarter earnings guidance all significantly exceeding market expectations. Enterprise-level large-capacity storage orders are abundant, and cloud vendors' long-term supply agreements have been extended until 2029. Market analysis: The data storage demand brought by AI is long-term rigid, and the previously overly pessimistic narrative of "declining storage demand" has been disproven. Capital spreads effect: The market trend for mechanical hard drives is transmitted to the NAND flash track, directly providing SanDisk with an emotional anchor. 2. The underlying logic of industry fundamentals is regaining capital attention 1) Supply constraints persist: Samsung and SK Hynix continue to tilt wafer capacity toward high-margin HBM, proactively squeezing the pace of 3D NAND expansion; The construction cycle for new NAND capacity is long and cannot be released quickly in the short term. 2) Qualitative change in demand structure: AI inference servers, vector databases, and agent services continue to drive enterprise-level SSD demand; The flash memory configuration scale per AI server is far larger than traditional models🔥$SNDK 这波是真的猛！从1000附近一路拉到1200上方，短线资金明显进场，AI+存储这条线再次被资金点燃。
前面低位的时候我们就一直关注它，真正有资金承接的票，一旦风口来了，爆发力往往超出预期。不过现在位置已经拉高，不建议盲目追涨，后面等回踩机会更舒服。
重点关注：
1180-1200附近，看回踩能不能稳住；
如果继续调整，下方1130-1150附近是更强支撑区域。
只要价格重新站稳1250上方，后面有机会继续冲击1260-1300区域。
AI行情还没结束，但接下来拼的是谁有真正业绩支撑。SNDK这波只是开始，关键就看回踩后的承接力度🔥
#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% Apple and Amazon are about to release their latest quarterly results after the U.S. market close. This report card not only affects the nerves of traditional stock markets but is also quietly influencing the flow of cryptocurrency funds. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin rebounded from around 64,000 to 64,746, while Ethereum simultaneously rebounded to 1918, showing an overall trend of shrinking volume stabilizing. Tech giants' investment in data centers, AI capital expenditures, and cloud service growth are directly linked to changes in computing power demand, which is precisely the foundation for mining and on-chain applications. If Amazon AWS's growth exceeds expectations, it may mean more institutions are participating in the crypto ecosystem through cloud nodes, providing indirect support for $BTC; Conversely, if Apple's revenue guidance is conservative, safe-haven funds may temporarily return to the crypto market, pushing up short-term volatility. Currently, the market is divided on technology stock pricing: the S&P Index has a record high PE, but the AI narrative is still brewing. If Apple's iPhone and service revenue falls below $50 billion, it could trigger a correction in tech stocks, at which point Bitcoin could test the 63,000 support level; If both exceed expectations, increased risk appetite will drive Ethereum to push toward 1950. Notably, last week the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $240 million, indicating that institutions have not exited but are waiting for a catalyst. Tonight's earnings report is the same stone, and the ripples will quickly spread to the digital asset sector. My view is optimistic: tech giants continue to expand investment in AI infrastructure, which is a long-term positive for the value of cryptocurrencies as computing power storage. In the short term, Bitcoin may fluctuate between 64,000 and 66,000, waiting for the futureWhen all pieces on the board move in the same direction, the real player will see the lone piece moving backward.
BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq dropped sharply from 0.58 to 0.12, not statistical noise, but a structural shift in the chessboard—like the Nadolff variation in the Sicilian defense, where Black actively abandoned the central pawn chain and instead controlled the entire second half with the flank pawn chain. Some interpret this as a "new formation after the king's car has shifted positions," with ETF funds and institutional allocation acting as the elephant that helps the king out of trouble, handing pricing power from the retail investors' sentiment assault team to the beta coefficient in the quarter-end report. But you have to look closely at the correlation of 0.21: even if it's weak like a minion crashing into the opponent in an endgame, it still stays tied to the lane.
Those who shouted "mirage" seized the sharpest move—when chip stocks collapsed this week, BTC instantly pulled back nearly $3,000. It's like forsaking a pawn in the middle to gain the initiative, but the opponent ignores your trap and uses a rear chariot to force you to switch back. Risk appetite contracts like a sudden five extra minutes on a chess clock, where all high-beta moves are suppressed by faster pieces. Correlation will fight back in the endgame like a pawn that upgrades, because deep down, they are still breathing under the same set of rules.
But true players understand: the decoupling faction is not talking about a complete break, but about a change in the quality of the "divergent pawn." The structural injection of ETFs is like adding a hindwinged elephant in chess; every buy is a targeted weakening of the opponent's control over the center—slow, stealthy, but capable of changing the endgame. Meanwhile, the Mirage opponent's hand is like a grandmaster on the other side of the game, seeing the "balance of power after the exchange" and ignoring the patience of the opponent's general.
A correlation coefficient of 0.12 reveals only one thing: before the game reaches the critical point after the midgame, both sides have already set hidden ambushes on the board. #btcnasdaqdecouplesFrom a daily timeframe perspective
$SNDK remains in a long-term downward channel
This round saw a huge drop from the 2382 high, while the 972 low triggered technical overselling
Today's 20% gain is just a short-term rebound catalyzed by news, with multiple medium- and long-term moving averages forming layers of suppression
Without consecutive major sector positive developments, it is difficult to reverse the overall weak pattern$XGOOGL — A controlled pullback is testing buyer strength.
Price is down 1.30% near 332.02, with approximately $21.9M in volume. A rebound above resistance could support another move higher.
EP: 322–330
TP1: 342
TP2: 355
SL: 312This kind of short squeeze is truly exciting. Whoever can short at a good position or hold onto it will get rich. Later, it will directly break through the 200-day moving average, then test the bottom again and accelerate downward, which will 100% announce entering a bear market. Trending shorts feel comfortable, but holding short is tough. Chasing shorts on the right side is more stable
If this wave turns into a reversal, with volume breaking through all key K-lines, then it's a bull pullback. But the leverage removed is real money, so it won't come back. The probability of this bull run is very low. If the bull market really continues, there's no need to push the sedan chair. The real price is at 7,000 meters above Everest, and I have to run before several large model companies go public. This was my original approach to holding the main stock
After squeezing into a short squeeze, I entered a long position. The odds of going up are low, but the downside is very large. If you're just trying to catch a rebound, it's about time to take profit. Don't be optimistic—this is my take-profit approach for building a long position at the 200-day moving average, but it's already shaken down
$MU has not crossed the 50-day moving average
$SNDK is below the 120-day moving average
$NVDA The 120-day moving average hasn't been touched; this is a barometer
Many semiconductor stocks haven't broken below the 120-day moving average, and few have managed to break through
This short squeeze is the result of precise calculations. At the latest, next week, we will soon see South Korea's market rescue and the Hynix owner buying back shares being criticized again. Once the capital sell-off market drops, it will be a panic-stomped, quick-running, and first-run game
It only takes 2-3 trading days to see results, which can confirm the above viewpoint and verify it togetherThe local decline in $SNDK is -42% and the biggest rebound we've had since its inception is +14% (which is very limited) Yesterday's reaction to the lack of increase + good capital expectations from META/MSFT is not very constructive on memory names. At this stage, I wouldn't be surprised if we have another leg down due to the severity of the market deterioration. Not comfortable at all, but I think we'll see a 20%+ recovery soon anyway. (Don't try to time the bottom using leverage unless you'reHYPE fell about 10% in a week, and the market has once again equated "large unstakes" with "selling immediately." Don't rush, there's still one step between these two movements. According to Hyperliquid's official documentation, transferring from a staking account back to a spot account requires a 7-day queue; Entering the queue means liquidity is being released, but it does not necessarily mean it will be sold after it arrives. Simply put, uncollateral data is more like a potential supply warning, not a sell order that has already been executed. To truly assess the pressure, we still need to look at on-chain transfers, exchange inflows, and spot trading volume after queue expiration. If only the price falls without subsequent funding path verification, attributing everything to the release would be too fast. $HYPE #HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week is for mechanism and market observation only, and does not constitute investment advice.When was the last time you bought a SanDisk USB drive or SD card? Most likely, it was a long time ago—after all, phones no longer have SIM cards. But if you search the US stock market and search for the code SNDK, you might be shocked: since it was spun off from Western Digital (WDC) in February 2025, its stock price has risen over 5000% since then, with its market value once surpassing $220 billion. The same SanDisk, still the familiar face in USB flash drives, suddenly becomes fiercer than many AI concept stocks? How did the sellers of USB drives become the "AI storage leaders"? First, sort out your background. SanDisk was founded in 1988 and acquired by Western Digital for $19 billion in 2016, and has since been tied to Western Digital's mechanical hard drive (HDD) business—a slow, stable business that made steady profits, a flash memory business with a fierce, costly cycle and AI-related flash memory, all forced under one roof, with valuations suppressed for years. In 2022, activist Elliott entered the market to pressure the market, and with the storage industry crash in 2023 (NAND prices dropped 60-70% in a year), Western Digital couldn't hold on any longer. On February 24, 2025, it officially spun off its flash memory business, independently listing SNDK on Nasdaq, leaving the mechanical hard drive sector to defend itself. The split itself is just the beginning; the real catalyst is AI retelling the storage logic. For the past two years, the market has been focused on GPUs, and it won't be until 2025-2026 that people realize: large model training and inference are not realBTC spot ETFs ended a four-day streak of net outflows, with a net inflow of $32.1 million yesterday. After the FOMC kept rates unchanged, funds did not continue to flee; instead, they made small returns. Although the volume is small, the change in direction is worth watching. The previous consecutive outflows were mostly avoidance before the rate meeting. Yesterday, US stocks plunged and BTC was still relatively strong. Has crypto really bottomed out?
$BTC $AEON — Heavy selling has created extreme volatility.
Price is down 16.18% near 0.09618, with around $12.03M in volume. A confirmed support bounce is needed before considering recovery.
EP: 0.090–0.095
TP1: 0.103
TP2: 0.112
SL: 0.084#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #AIStoryDiverges Rebound ≠ reversal, $ETH surged 4%, $QQQ was dazzlingly green, and the market was waiting—whoever showed weakness first would set today's tone.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 65,283 +1.45% $ETH 1,952 +4.14%
$QQQ -1.12% $SPY +0.10% $IBIT -0.82%
$DXY -0.15% $GLD +0.10%
Hormuz and crude oil are still adding variables to inflation expectations, US Treasury yields and the shadow of Fed tightening continue to weigh on valuations, and the dollar isn't a backdrop—just a quick adjustment of the exchange rate line can disrupt the rhythm of $QQQ$SPY. It's not surprising which switch gets triggered in today's market $MSFT $MU $SNDK $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOGL
$ETH Elasticity is clearly stronger than $BTC, short-term risk appetite is rising, but $QQQ is sinking downward, and money is shrinking into defense. $IBIT Weaker than spot $BTC; if ETFs weaken, it means the spot market isn't as strong; $DXY If it breathes a little easier, risk assets can catch their breath, but once tightened, it quickly turns hostile; $GLD Still quietly rising, safe-haven funds haven't fully withdrawn—don't be fooled by the hype.Last night was explosive outside, and it relates to us
1. The Fed didn't move, interest rates unchanged. The expectation of a rate hike in September has eased—USD is weak, which is good for risk assets.
2. US stocks fell, crude oil surged over 7%, gold at $4123. Money is flowing into hard assets. Will Bitcoin follow this wave? I'm watching.
3. Microsoft rose 8%, Meta fell 8%. Both are AI-related, but different expectation management led to vastly different results. In crypto terms—project teams need skill in painting the picture.
4. Grok 4.5 released, input 2 output $6 per million tokens. The AI track is still competitive, crypto AI projects face considerable pressure.
5. South Korea restricts retail leverage ETFs—global deleveraging is underway, brothers, watch your positions.
Conclusion: Macro is relatively loose, capital is seeking hard assets. Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative may be repriced.
Discuss in the comments: Is Bitcoin still a copycat for you? I'm holding Bitcoin + AI observation positions, no leverage used. #Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #AIStoryDiverges PCE print came out, short positions got wiped out. Microsoft earnings hit the wires, and market direction flipped entirely.
This trade caught me off guard.
My $SKHYNIX short was down -60.08%, taken out by a sharp spike.
I entered around the 900 zone during consolidation. After sleeping through the session, price ripped straight to 1023 and stopped me out cleanly.
It quickly sank in: the PCE release plus Microsoft commentary had completely reset the market’s core narrative.
🔍 What did the PCE data actually signal?
June PCE fell -0.1% month-on-month, the first negative reading since 2020.
Core PCE rose only 0.1% MoM, below the 0.2% consensus forecast.
Inflation cooled visibly.
Meanwhile Q2 GDP printed at 1.5%, well under the 2.1% expectation.
The data mix is nuanced: inflation is easing, economic growth is slowing, yet consumer spending remains resilient with Q2 consumption growth hitting 3.2%.
The market’s immediate takeaway: this is a risk-on catalyst.
That spike on $SKHYNIX unfolded right under this shifting sentiment.
💻 The bigger wildcard: Microsoft’s capex cut triggered a violent reaction.
The real market mover was Microsoft earnings.
The company revised its FY2027 capital expenditure guidance down from $190B to $175B.
Its stock surged more than 8% after hours.
Why the euphoria?
For months, investors feared AI capital burn would overwhelm big tech balance sheets.
This signal carries layered meaning:
The AI thesis remains intact, but the “spend at all costs for growth” logic is weakening.
Markets are starting to reward disciplined cost control and returns over unrestrained capex expansion.
For memory chips, this is a mixed signal.
Near-term bullish: AI capex persists, just at a slower pace; demand is not collapsing outright.
Long-term bearish risk: if other tech giants follow Microsoft’s lead and slash spending, memory demand expectations will face repric
🎯 Outlook on $SKHYNIX ahead
Near-term bias leans upward.
Cooler PCE, Microsoft’s positive surprise, plus oversold technical conditions support the bounce.
1023 may not mark the immediate top A sharp critique of Washi and its policies, a new era of imagination and criticism
Using tonight's data as a way to roast Wash, I happened to be discussing Wash's policies with @TiezhuCrypto Boss during the AMA at @binancezh Square, and the exchange of ideas brought new perspectives
A buff for start: this part of my content is mostly personal speculation and cannot be taken as a mainstream reference, so it might be a bit subjective:
1. Compared to Powell, Wash is more like a politician. From his remarks, Powell seems more like a scholar of integrity—one serving politics, the other serving the economy. This statement may carry a lot of subjective tone
2. Wash's downplay of the Fed's forward-looking ability and current June inflation data is a move to overturn the entire Fed framework. From expectation management to data sources, Wash's denial is a denial of the previous Fed system, indicating his ambition
3. No rate hikes in July, and no in September. Rate hikes are a high-pressure test for the US economy. Walsh doesn't dare to play this way, because a single rate hike isn't important; what matters is the return of the rate hike cycle, which will put severe pressure on the US capital market. This is a red line, not easy to cross.
4. Walsh emphasizes that the high interest rate environment and limited easing are meant to limit capital liquidity, guiding funds within controllable limits to liquidity dividend zones—U.S. stocks, or U.S. capital—to support AI's high valuation. This is a political task, and both Republicans and Democrats need such a Fed chair
5. Walsh is not cutting rates simply because there isn't enough time. He has just taken office and needs time to control the Fed and initiate reforms. If rates are cut now, the market's data will still be the same as before. But what he wants most is to convince the market that he will form a working group in the future
Imagine when the market no longer trusts the Fed's statements but only the data, and this data comes from Walsh's working group, who decides how interest rates are adjusted?
6,@TiezhuCrypto Boss Tiezhu reminds everyone that the members of the working group have some degree of connection with Wash, so clearly, this working group has Wash's attributes
When internal conflicts cannot be changed, external forces are chosen to break through. Walsh does exactly that, using external working group data to change the current Federal Reserve officials' stance and thereby guide macroeconomic control. This is Walsh's goal.
7. As for the Fed under Warsh's leadership, I can't judge the final outcome yet; we'll have to wait for the market and time. But clearly, Walsh's actions aren't for the economy—it's for himself, and for his political capital. Once he establishes his own system, the next president—whether Democratic or Republican—won't make much difference, and he will be in an undefeated position.
Regarding our impact, I believe that before the working group is formed and data is released, it will be difficult for both the market and the economy to change the strategy of not cutting rates. Unless inflation continues to decline (which is difficult), employment declines significantly, and there is a risk of economic recession, all of which may have to endure the torment brought by Walsh during this period
I believe the key turning point will come after Trump's midterm elections. When the midterms are settled and political factors stabilize, Wash completes data collection, establishes a new data portfolio, and with external forces, can start a new Washi era. Under limited bearish easing and limited liquidity, the market's survival environment will be relatively harsher!
Especially since Walsh can weaken the Fed's expectations management, keeping the market anchored in economic data, which increases market volatility caused by short- and medium-term economic data. Meanwhile, the speeches that need attention at subsequent policy meetings can be gradually ignored—I almost fell asleep listening to it yesterday! #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight 🚨 The Prisoner's Dilemma of Global AI Stocks
The U.S., China, and South Korea's tech sectors are beginning to resemble a classic prisoner's dilemma.
Everyone is acting in their own short-term interest...
...and that may be making things worse for everyone.
🇺🇸 U.S. tech giants continue pouring massive capital into AI, worried about losing their competitive edge.
🇰🇷 South Korean investors remain heavily exposed to semiconductor names like Samsung and SK Hynix, with many also using leveraged products to amplify returns.
🇨🇳 Chinese markets face cautious sentiment, where investors often rush to reduce exposure before others do.
The result?
Instead of reinforcing confidence across the AI supply chain, uncertainty encourages defensive positioning and fuels broader selling pressure.
In theory, sustained AI investment could support the entire ecosystem.
In practice, fear, leverage, and positioning can create a negative feedback loop where everyone tries to protect themselves at the same time.
That's why, in the short term, market psychology can outweigh strong long-term fundamentals.
Patience and disciplined risk management matter just as much as believing in the AI story.
$SKHY $MU $NVDA
#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #AIStoryDiverges
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Tonight's PCE data didn't bring much to the crypto market. As I analyzed in my previous post, the profit-making opportunities are in US stocks. US semiconductor technology saw a midday rebound, and this rebound exceeded expectations. Why are US stocks rising so fiercely? Mainstream Coin $BTC $ETH Shows No Significant Volatility? The FOMC and PCE did not exceed expectations and are basically in line with institutional forecasts. Sentiment has already been priced in. Tonight's US stock market credit goes to $MSFT Microsoft. Microsoft's earnings report exceeded expectations, driving a comprehensive recovery in AI and chips. Microsoft's Q4 revenue, cloud Azure, and AI business growth all far exceeded Wall Street expectations. At the same time, the full-year AI capital expenditure was cut to prove that AI investment can truly generate profits. The market panic over "burning cash but not profits" was alleviated. The stock surged over 10% intraday, with capital flowing back into the semiconductor sector. Micron, SK Hynix ADR, Nvidia, and memory chip all rebounded violently. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 7%, directly driving the Nasdaq higher. Tonight's PCE data results combined with Q2 GDP growth of 1.5% were below expectations. Economic weakness + easing inflation The market bets on a rebound in September rate cuts. US Treasury yields fell across the board. Valuation pressure on high-valuation tech stocks eased, and funds aggressively bottom-fished growth stocks. However, note that this rebound is an oversold rally + positive earnings reports. After digesting, there will be some pullback. Expected on Friday? #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, Meta underperforms in AICurrently, the US is rising and falling as wildly as with altcoins, making this the most suitable market for 😅 retail investors to liquidate positions
Amid the frenzy of storing bull returns, $META is still plummeting
I'm curious how long upstream vendors can keep celebrating if downstream customers run out of money to invest in data centersA $1.6 billion order can't save the stock price; SpaceX is giving the market one of the most important lessons: strong fundamentals do not guarantee a forever reasonable valuation.
Recently, the SpaceX situation has been quite interesting.
The U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX a huge $1.6 billion contract for 18 Falcon 9 launch missions, which in itself is definitely not bad news.
If you only look at the company's fundamentals, SpaceX remains one of the strongest players in the global commercial space sector.
Rocket launch business is stable, Starlink continues to expand, and there is huge potential in space internet, satellite communications, and more in the future.
But the market's reaction is very realistic:
Good news comes out, but the stock price does not rise; instead, it continues to adjust.
What this reflects is not whether SpaceX has value, but that investors are starting to reassess the valuation.
My view is:
SpaceX may be a great company, but now the market is re-answering a question—how much is a great company really worth?
In recent years, the capital market has been willing to give SpaceX very high expectations.
Investors are not just buying the current rocket business but are betting on the space economy of the next decade.
This logic is very similar to the previous AI market.
The market prices the future in advance.
When everyone believes an industry will explode, valuations often run ahead of performance.
But the problem is, as expectations rise, any imperfection becomes pressure on the stock price.
The pressures SpaceX faces now mainly come from several aspects.
First, valuation pressure.
The larger a company's future growth potential, the higher the price the market assigns, but this means future higher growth must be continuously delivered, or the valuation will be readjusted.
Second, capital and share pressure.
Currently, the market is focused on SpaceX's stock price pullback, short selling ratio, and subsequent restricted stock releases, all of which affect short-term trading sentiment.
Third, changes in the market environment.
Many high-valuation assets have experienced similar situations this year:
Company business hasn't deteriorated significantly, but stock prices start to return to reasonable levels.
Because the market has moved from the "storytelling phase" to the "profit verification phase."
So I won't simply think:
SpaceX dropping 50% is an opportunity.
Nor will I think:
A stock price decline means the company is failing.
What really matters is looking at the next few quarters:
Can Starlink's revenue growth continue?
Can commercial launch orders convert into profits?
When will the massive investments start generating cash flow?
If these metrics continue to be delivered, then the current adjustment may just be the market finding a reasonable price again.
But if future growth falls short of expectations, valuation pressure will continue to be released.
This situation actually serves as a reminder to all investors:
Don't ignore price just because you like a company's products.
Tesla is like this, AI companies are like this, and SpaceX is no different.
Good companies are always worth attention, but good investment opportunities often appear when the market starts doubting them.
The current SpaceX is more like a renewed contest between "value" and "price."
#SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 $SPCX $NMR — Buyers are rebuilding strength.
Price is up 3.69% near 8.539, with around $108.49K in volume. A clean breakout could continue the rally.
EP: 8.25–8.45
TP1: 8.90
TP2: 9.35
SL: 7.90