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$AMZN is up more than 15% after AWS delivered its fastest revenue growth in 18 quarters while operating margins expanded to 39% despite record AI infrastructure spending.
AWS added more than $4.6B in quarterly revenue which was around 80% above its previous record and pushed the business toward a $170B annual run rate with a Rule-of-40 score of 76.
This is the clearest evidence yet that AI infrastructure can generate attractive profits while scaling and shifts the hyperscaler debate from who spends the most to who spends it best.
This is exactly why Amazon is a top 3 position in my Family Portfolio.A $89 million cold-wallet drain just tested the entire self-custody thesis, and Bitcoin refused to break.
A firmware flaw dating back years in Coldcard devices allowed attackers to sweep thousands of addresses. This is not an exchange hack or smart-contract failure. It is hardware-level entropy failure hitting pure offline storage.
The market’s response is the real story. $BTC is still defending the $63,000 area. That kind of absorption under genuine bad news shows forced selling has largely run its course and remaining liquidity is selective rather than panicked. Institutions appear content to watch rather than dump, while ETF flows stay mixed and the Fed’s hawkish tone keeps rate-cut hopes delayed.
$ETH is holding its recent range. $SOL and $XRP are showing better relative bids, and $ADA continues to lead large-cap upside. $BNB, $DOGE, $TRX, $HYPE, $AVAX, $LINK, $DOT, $UNI, $ATOM, and $NEAR are mostly tracking the same cautious risk tone without separate catalysts.
My view: episodes like this accelerate the shift toward institutional custody solutions and ETF wrappers. At the same time, any leftover leverage in higher-beta names will stay tight until the next clear macro data point. August already leans choppy; thin weekend volume and unresolved regulatory timing only add to that.
Stay locked on the tape, respect the ranges, and let price action confirm the next real move.Currently, global market risk appetite continues to recover, and idle funds are becoming willing to allocate to equity risk assets, but this dividend has been entirely given to the US tech market. Funds deliberately avoid the highly regulated and volatile virtual currency sector, leading to widespread selective abandonment in the crypto market. Without liquidity dividends, the crypto world naturally finds it hard to achieve a decent rally, and the short-term weak pattern is hard to break.📊 Four Major Earnings Reports Next Week—But Circle Is the One That Matters Most
Next week's lineup includes:
• Palantir
• AMD
• SpaceX
• Circle
The first three will provide more insight into AI demand, but much of that story has already been reflected in recent Big Tech earnings. At this stage, they're more about confirming expectations than creating a new narrative.
Circle is different.
Recent crypto earnings have painted a mixed picture:
• Coinbase revenue fell 18.5%.
• Robinhood's crypto revenue dropped nearly 40%.
• $USDT growth has slowed.
The common takeaway is that crypto activity has weakened—but one key question remains unanswered:
Has capital actually left the market, or has it simply moved into a different vehicle?
That's where Circle's results become critical.
If USDC circulation continues to grow, it suggests capital is still on the sidelines, waiting for compliant opportunities rather than exiting crypto altogether.
If USDC supply also contracts, it would point to genuine net outflows and a broader decline in stablecoin liquidity.
This isn't just another earnings report—it's a window into institutional positioning and the health of crypto liquidity.
The size and growth of compliant stablecoins may be one of the market's most important leading indicators.
$BTC $ETH
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms Fundamental Research Report $PYTH / Pyth Network (oracle/middleware) $3.20
To summarize: Pyth Network ($PYTH) has an overall score of 54/100, with a rating that narrative emphasizes implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Fundamental Breakdown: Pyth Network (token $PYTH), Oracle/Middleware track. Focusing on high-frequency, low-latency oracles. Compared to LINK and API3. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning of niche single-point tools. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Let's look together with peers (unified standards, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Pyth Network $3.00B, LINK undisclosed, API3 undisclosed. For FDV, Pyth Network $4.20B, LINK undisclosed, API3 undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Pyth Network $2.00M, LINK undisclosed, API3 undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Pyth Network has not disclosed this, LINK has not been disclosed, and API3 has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In short: solid fundamentals (rating 54/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Tracking metrics: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
This concludes the research report. Welcome to share your views.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitI recommend everyone return to leading crypto assets for only one reason:
The only sustainable direction for the entire industry in the future is to restore the value of leading assets.
In recent years, the crypto market has experienced numerous project bubbles, liquidity overdraws, and trust depletion. A large number of assets without real demand, users, or cash flow support are essentially short-term speculative tools.
To attract larger-scale capital inflows in the future, the market must return to a handful of leading assets with truly network effects, technological accumulation, and ecosystem value.
Financial markets are always like this:
After the bubble bursts, not all assets will return; rather, funds will seek out truly valuable assets again.
The next phase of competition in the crypto industry is not about "who issues more tokens," but who can become part of the global digital financial infrastructure.
In the 2023~2024 bull market, the industry's leading narratives are Ordi, PePe, WLD, Sui, and ONDO. I can't say I'm one of the earliest advocates, but I was the first to mention the whole narrative. Talking about this now sounds like bragging, but from DaBing 30,000 to writing the entire narrative framework, many people are paying attention to me because of these tokens.
When I talked about them back then, these projects were at rock bottom. At the time, some commented that I was writing novels and shouldn't dream during the day, but later they hyped it up because of traffic and popularity.
At this stage, these types of assets are quite dull; in a mature industry, they are not welcome, and the industry is just entering a mature phase.
Changing your mindset is a good thing. No matter how the main players struggle, the entire industry is entering a new mature track. Those who stray from the track are left behind by the times.
Looking back at this post five years later, it turns out I once saw an industry radiating rules, order, vitality, and maturity amid the fragmentation.
I often chat with friends that every market follows universal laws: children, youth, maturity, aging, crypto is the same, and now it's in a rebellious teenage phase.
If you were smart enough, you could explain these frameworks six months ago, and today you see leading assets like UNI and SKY. In such a market, they can still radiate vitality, and you should be able to roughly estimate their future and even the future framework of the entire industry."Six-Dimensional U.S. Stock Trading System | Today's One Stock"
Can MU Micron stock still be shorted? — Six-dimensional system analysis at the $840 level
Current price: Around $840 (after market close on August 2). On July 31, it briefly rebounded intraday to 927, then quickly pulled back, closing at 823,840 on August 1, becoming a key point in the recent bull-bear battle.
My conclusion is: there is short-selling value around 840, but strict position control and quick entry and exit are necessary. Because the profit-loss ratio here isn't high!
1. The underlying logic of short selling
1. Michael Burry shorted three times, clearly showing a bearish flag
"Big short seller" Michael Burry has consecutively shorted Micron at 1051, 933, and 880 levels. His core logic points directly to the AI industry chain's "circular financing": Micron is both Anthropic's HBM supplier and involved in Anthropic Series H financing, with the money circling back into its own account. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has issued a warning that Burry is shorting this cyclical structure, not just the storage cycle.
2. Technical breakdown, rebound limited at 0.382
It fell from a high of 1,255 to 739, then rebounded to 927, which is exactly the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level. Any rebound below 0.382 can only be considered a downward relay. Around 840, several medium-term moving averages are also holding back, and above it, the 850-927 range is densely trapped.
3. Changxin Technology's IPO rewrites the global DRAM narrative
Changxin Technology surged 470% on the STAR Market, topping the A-share market value in market value. Apple CEO Tim Cook has applied to the U.S. government for a waiver, hoping to use Changxin and Yangtze Memory chips in overseas products. As one of Apple's main suppliers, Micron's approval would directly impact its procurement dependence.
2. Key risks of short selling
The biggest risk of shorting MU right now is a trend reversal.
Of 46 Wall Street analysts, 40 have given a "Buy" rating, with a consensus target price of around $1,522. The bullish logic is also solid: Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion (+346%), net profit of $28.8 billion, long-term supply agreements signed with 16 customers worth $22 billion, and HBM capacity sold out in the next two years. The CEO made it clear that supply shortages will continue beyond 2027.
This round of decline is essentially a valuation reshaping of the "AI sustainable growth narrative" by the "cycle peak expectation." If Q4 results once again prove that "AI demand has not slowed," the bearish logic will be quickly broken.
3. Core principles of position management
Total position: Short positions should not exceed 3-5% of total funds;
Stop-loss price: 860-870 (If volume increases and the price holds, bearish logic will be disproven by the list)
First target: 790-800
Second target: 740-750
Extreme target: 680-700 (0.5 retracement level)
Position discipline: Exit immediately if stop-loss is reached, do not take on trades.
There is a huge divergence between bulls and bears at the 840 level: bears have Burry holding the position + technical breakout + Changxin narrative, while bulls have the strongest performance in history + AI demand + major client lock-in.
The current STS composite signal is: cautiously bearish, but this is not a one-sided opportunity; it is a game position where "stop-loss is very close, take-profit room is available."
Friends, with MU stock priced at $840, would you dare to go short?
Can you overcome your inner fear and short-sell it lightly at Monday's opening?
Feel free to share trading tips and short selling strategies in the comments section.Wall Street relies on ETFs to continuously guide capital into the crypto market. Now, major crypto exchanges have successively launched US perpetual contracts, fully opening up two-way capital circulation channels.
The data is impressive: in the first five months of this year, the transaction volume of perpetual contracts for traditional assets reached 1.32 trillion yuan, already surpassing the total for the entire year last year. On the Bitget platform alone, stock-related trading accounts for 28% of total trading volume.
Based on on-chain dynamic analysis, whales have been accumulating BTC and ETH at low levels, but the trading volume of crypto-native coins remains sluggish, with much capital diverting into the US stock contract market. Combined with divergent Federal Reserve policy views and a temporary easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the market continues to fluctuate and grind in the 62,000–66,000 range.
Traditional capital continues to penetrate the crypto sector through contract channels, which can sustain incremental capital in the long run. However, in the short term, capital is diverted, and the pressure is on the upward breakout momentum.
At this stage, the market is waiting for liquidity signals from the August Jackson Hole meeting. Before easing expectations materialize, it is difficult to start a sustained trend.
What do you think: will the funds currently participating in US stock contracts flow back into BTC in the future?
⚠️ Market views are only exchange and do not constitute investment advice
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning
#HYPE再遭亿元解押, Japanese companies entered the market for the first time Some thoughts on the market heading into Monday:
Did we see a failed breakdown for the indexes? Nice to those reclaims in $SPY $QQQ considering where we closed Wednesday. Just need some contraction, and the bounce to hold.
Some positive action for $AMZN $MSFT - solid reactions helping the $MAGS bounce.
The AI trade bounced aggressively, but charts are massively wide and loose. Where are the tight, low risk areas to judiciously manage risk from? Moving averages and resistance gaps remain above for many, with their trends still DOWN.
The biggest bounces happen in downtrends.
Software looks like the most exciting group to me. Earnings in the way of some nice setups. What stocks like $DDOG, $SNOW, $NET, $CRWD etc do next will be telling. $IGV faces the 200-day.
Crypto was tightening up and broke lower. No rush here.
The big money is made when stocks and the indexes are above rising moving averages. Trying to catch the low is a useless and unnecessary endeavour that’s going to do more harm than good.
A few travel stocks are tightening up. Just a rotation play, or a possible group move on the horizon? Airlines, cruises etc.
With earnings approaching for MANY stocks, no need to be a hero. Let the market show you what it wants, where the whales move their money - that will guide us to the next round of opportunities.
Dan Zanger talks about there being ‘3 or 4’ good periods a year for trading. In between, there’s nothing to really go.
Don’t style drift just to try and stay busy with what’s in favour right now.
Be patient, focus on A+ opportunities. If there’s nothing to do, do nothing.
You will feel the environment shift. New trades will take off, and very suddenly there will be so many setups that you won’t have the capital to buy them.
Let’s get it this week!We paid 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD according to the contract, and the funds were first transferred to the so-called "scammer's" wallet. Coincidentally, Gate Alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens, and the platform refused to disclose the complete listing process; Subsequently, the wallet transfers assets into Gate Alpha for airdrops.
On-chain hash records are displayed on the chain, making the truth clear at a glance.
Only after the project has paid the full fees and successfully completed the launch will the platform inform us that the person we connected with throughout the process is not an internal Gate employee.
The successful listing of the project on Gate Exchange is already a done deal. This explanation is hard to reconcile and seriously damages Gate's own credibility. We look forward to the official clear and direct response to all doubts.💪🏻Bitcoin $BTC entered August near $63,000 after an 8% increase last month — but history is not on the bulls' side. The last four consecutive Augusts all ended with a decline, averaging about -10%. Analysts are divided: some expect a drop to $58K–$62K before the price rises again, while others see the cooling demand for ETFs as an early warning signal.
#OKXTraderVoices #NewHereStartHere #DailyOrbit BTC recorded 45 mentions in one hour, showing whether the popularity and tone are aligned
Putting price aside, the BTC community data itself already shows two different clues.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 45 mentions of BTC in one hour at 20:00 on August 2 (China time), including 41 times on X and 4 times in the news; The total 24-hour volume was 1,094 times.
After conversion, the latest hour is 0.99 times the long-window hourly average, which is almost the 24-hour average. This ratio only answers whether discussions have heated up, not whether buying has increased. If you write it directly as a breakout signal, you take an extra step and make an inference that the data does not support.
The structure of tone is another line. Within one hour, 31% are slightly bullish, 16% bearish, and about 53% neutral, which is considered 'slightly bullish with a slight advantage'; Within the 24-hour period, the trend is 26% bullish and 35% bearish. The gap between the short and long windows is the part worth tracking going forward.
On the source side, BTC is currently mainly driven by X. When a message is widely shared, mentions quickly increase, but independent information may not necessarily increase year-on-year. The trending list cannot tell us whether each piece of text comes from different participants, nor does it weigh by account influence or fund size.
Long window sources can be used as background: BTC has had 970 times in 24 hours, and 124 news events. If the proportion of sources in one hour suddenly deviates sharply, it could mean new news first broke out on a certain channel, or news updates just haven't caught up yet. Both explanations are reasonable, so we still need to wait for the original announcement or the next round of source distribution confirmation.
I would treat Bullish and Bearish as thermometers under the same ruler, not as exact voting. There is a lot of neutral content, usually just everyone watching and not yet forming a unified direction; An increase in bearish bias may also mean more risk discussions, but it doesn't mean every poster has truly established a short position.
The next step to observe is whether spot trading volume expands, whether perpetual contract funding rates and open interest are moving in the same direction, and whether liquidations are concentrated. These three sets of data answer real trading participation and leverage structure, and cannot be replaced by community mentions. If there are macro or industry events, the official original text should be directly verified.
How did I know I was mistaken this time? If the next round of BTC mentions returns to near the average and the gap between bullish and bearish will narrow, this change will likely be just short-term noise. Conversely, two consecutive rounds of increased speed, expanded news sources, and simultaneous increases in spot and derivatives transactions are more like the main market theme is taking shape.
You also need to keep the intraday difference. The community activity levels differ naturally between early Asian trading, US trading hours, and near major announcements; A single 0.99x is not suitable for annualization, nor should it be used to directly compare with the raw count on another platform. Continuous snapshots are more useful than a single beautiful number.
So I first remember BTC as "discussions roughly close to the long-term average, with a slightly bullish tone in the short-term window." The official rankings stop here, with no proof that funds are betting in the same direction. If the next round also improves both the diversity of sources and market transactions, it won't be too late to raise confidence in judgment.After sharing the chip structure data yesterday, many friends privately asked me: Based on other data, is the probability of an upward fluctuation greater, or downward?
To be honest, it's hard for me to answer this question completely free of subjective bias.
In a tweet a few days ago, we also discussed that from the logic of "breakeven points acting as support/resistance in bull/bear cycles," the probability of a small-scale downward move is greater, including the case of a "false breakout upward followed by a downward move."
But on a larger scale, the trend change process is slow but inevitable.
Maybe, if we look back two years from now, many of the current guesses, struggles, and even worries will be unnecessary.
Just like the black swan event in November 2022, the price drop accelerated panic selling and helped bring the bear market to a close.
However, it might also be because I subjectively hope for a "final drop."
That way, there would be a chance to lower the average cost and fill positions accordingly, so the above is hard to guarantee as an absolutely objective view.
But I know that whether or not there is a "final drop," the current situation is most likely at or near the bottom, not at the peak or mid-slope. This is within my understanding.
Here is a data example:
As the market matures, the proportion of LTH (Long-Term Holders) in the total network supply has gradually increased. Once they collectively surrender, the dominance of outflows to exchanges will definitely be stronger than in earlier stages.
Therefore, when the proportion of "LTH transferring to exchanges at realized losses" exceeds the previous cycle's high point, it often occurs near the relative bottom of the current cycle.
Looking back at February, although the price was similar to now, the values were quite different. So, BTC in February was close in terms of price range but not in timing.
After July, the situation changed. More and more bottom conditions from different dimensions should gradually appear.
Let's wait and see......#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
Guys, did you notice that detail?
Reuters captured Becent's notebook at Camp David, which read, "Buy 5 to 10 billion yen." The finance minister's notebook being photographed is very likely not a coincidence.
On July 31, the New York Fed, representing the U.S. Treasury, sold euros and bought yen through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The last time the U.S. did something like this was in 2011, 14 years ago. Moreover, the last time was an emergency backup after the major earthquake in Japan; this time, it was a proactive intervention under financial pressure. One is passive response, the other is an active choice.
What does this mean?
The dollar is too strong—so strong that its allies can't withstand it. The U.S. needs to personally help Japan hold up the exchange rate to ease the global dollar liquidity tightness. With a rare intervention, it sent a signal to the market—the dollar's strength had exceeded what allies could bear and required active management.
The impact on the crypto world is reversed in both the short and long term.
In the short term, US buying yen and selling euros will trigger some carry trade unwindings, with funds flowing back from high-yield assets, causing temporary disturbances in risk assets. However, the weakening US dollar has actually been a supporting factor for crypto assets denominated in US dollars.
In the medium to long term, the dollar credit system is undergoing a stress test. Allies of the US and Japan's caliber need to intervene in exchange rates, indicating that the current international monetary system is under unprecedented tension. Every time this tension arises, some capital will re-examine the allocation value of non-sovereign assets.
Bitcoin and gold are the most direct beneficiaries of this narrative. Short-term prices may not react immediately, but the direction is gradually accumulating. This incident itself will not have much impact on Bitcoin's price today, but it points toward a structural reshaping of liquidity.
My view is clear: the dollar's credit is loosening, and the long-term logic of non-sovereign assets is strengthening. Intervention in the yen is just a surface; the real signal is that global funds are seeking alternative allocation directions for the dollar.
What do you think?
$ETH $BTC $SOL 📊 MRVL vs. INTC: Two AI Stocks, Two Very Different Trades
Although both are tied to the AI theme, $MRVL and $INTC represent completely different investment cases.
🚀 $MRVL — A Momentum AI Infrastructure Trade
Marvell's growth is driven by AI infrastructure, including custom XPUs, optical networking, switches, and data center connectivity.
The bull case depends on:
✅ AI CapEx staying strong
✅ Design wins converting into production revenue
✅ Expanding AI revenue mix driving earnings upgrades
This is a high-growth, high-multiple stock. As long as earnings expectations continue to improve, valuation can expand further. But if guidance, orders, or customer demand disappoint relative to expectations, multiple compression can happen quickly.
Key risks: customer concentration, production delays, crowded positioning, and post-earnings volatility.
---
🔄 $INTC — A Turnaround with Long-Term Optionality
Intel isn't simply an AI growth story—it's a restructuring and execution story.
The investment thesis revolves around:
✅ Progress on the 18A process
✅ Foundry customer wins
✅ Advanced packaging
✅ Lower foundry losses
✅ CapEx normalization
If Intel executes successfully, the market could begin valuing it as a strategic U.S. semiconductor manufacturing asset rather than just a traditional IDM.
Unlike MRVL, however, this is a long-duration turnaround. Execution takes time, and progress will likely be measured over multiple quarters—not a single earnings report.
Key risks: execution delays, ongoing cash burn, weak foundry revenue, and heavy capital spending.
---
🎯 Bottom Line
$MRVL is a momentum trade driven by AI demand, earnings revisions, and trend strength. It offers faster upside but carries higher valuation risk.
$INTC is a mean-reversion and turnaround trade built on execution, manufacturing progress, and asset re-rating. It may offer attractive long-term upside, but patience is essential.
One rewards accelerating growth. The other rewards successful execution.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms SpaceX is approaching a pivotal week. While $SPCX has already fallen well below its IPO price, the real focus is still ahead.
On August 4, the company is expected to release its first earnings report since listing. Just two days later, a massive wave of locked shares becomes eligible for trading, creating potential selling pressure that markets will watch closely.
For crypto, this isn't a direct $BTC catalyst, but risk sentiment matters. Strong earnings and confidence around Starlink's future could lift growth assets, while weak results combined with heavy selling may weigh on tech stocks and spill over into $BTC and $ETH.
I'm staying patient until the market reacts to both events. This could set the tone for the next major move.
$SPCX $BTC $ETH $SNDKFundamental Research Report $API 3 / API3 (Oracles/Middleware) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: API3 ($API 3) overall score 57/100, rating narrative over implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at projects first: API3 (token $API 3), oracle/middleware track. Featuring First-Party Oracle Machines. Benchmarked against LINK and PYTH. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning of niche single-point tools. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $1.27M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Comparing with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, API3 $3.00B, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. For FDV, API3 is $4.20B, LINK is undisclosed, PYTH is undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, API3 is $1.27M, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, API3 is not disclosed, LINK is not disclosed, PYTH is not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market capitalization $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 2368.0x, FDV divided by revenue 3315.1x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In the end: solid fundamentals (score 57/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Key points to look at next: protocol fee cycles, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, and GitHub version releases. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
That's all for the content—judge for yourself.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitMy two holdings haven't moved at all: SPCX at over 108.9, XAMZN at 269.71 short.
Many people asked me if I had been rejected, and I really didn't. I'm the type who values logic, not volatility.
Let's start with SPCX, which is a big deal. Since SpaceX's IPO, it has hit new lows. My 108.9 yuan high is still stuck in water, holding floating losses. But I didn't cut because the logic behind this bill isn't right in front of the current quarter's financial report—Musk is betting the entire narrative on Starlink + Starship + robots, and SpaceX's valuation isn't based on traditional PE ratios. In the short term, liquidity was taken away by Amazon and Microsoft's AI capital expenditures, but like Tesla, it fell because of the story, not the foundation. I'm just waiting for the day Starship recovers solidly, or for another Starlink data explosion, and the funds come back to recognize this narrative.
Now, let's talk about XAMZN, which is empty. I opened 269.71 and shorted, still holding on, haven't moved. What I bet on isn't that it will collapse immediately, but that its capital expenditure has just been raised to 220 billion yuan and free cash flow turned negative. This time, the market is selectively ignoring risk and focusing only on AWS's growth rate. This "rise is because people don't want bad news" approach is most feared in the next earnings season—once guidance falls short of expectations, the rebound will be even harder than the rise. I can handle this.
To put it bluntly, these two moves represent two sides of the same judgment: in this round of AI-driven capital expenditure, short-term stories can rise, but long-term bills must be paid. SPCX is mostly "waiting for narrative return," while XAMZN is empty "waiting for the bill to be paid off."
On the last day of the event, showing off a warehouse still soaking in water looks more real than showing a profitable account. How did you get it?
#财报观察员: Next Thursday's drawing, Circle will be the grand finale, #SPCX首份财报将公布, and the $100 billion unlock is about to be lifted
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?[KAITO: The Battle of Crypto Information Traffic Has Only Just Begun] What is the most expensive thing in crypto? Many people say it's chips, liquidity, or insider information. But I think the underlying factor is attention. Whoever can capture the narrative the fastest, and who can understand the capital's focus earlier, will likely get ahead in the market. This is what makes KAITO interesting. It is not a traditional public chain nor a simple DeFi project, but rather an attempt to blend AI, search, crypto information flow, and attention markets. It sounds abstract, but in the crypto world, it's very direct: everyone chases trending topics every day, checks KOLs, digs into projects, and seeks narratives, ultimately competing for information gaps. KAITO's most exciting imagination is that it could become an information gateway to the crypto world. If a platform can tell you what the market is discussing, what capital is paying attention to, which projects are unusually hot, and which voices are starting to form consensus, then it is not just a tool, but a front-end for trading decisions. But there was also a lot of controversy. Can AI information platforms form a moat? Are the data sources exclusive enough? Are users willing to use it long-term? Can tokens capture platform value? If these issues are not resolved, KAITO's narrative may just be another round of packaging for "AI + Crypto." I focus most on KAITO's three main threads: First, genuine user stickiness. It's not about airdrop users clicking it, but about whether researchers, traders, and KOLs really use it every day. Second, data and computationTrump cleared 2,628 $BTC holdings—should the market panic?
Let's start with an interesting comparison.
Latest news today (August 2): Trump Media transferred 2,628 $BTC to the Crypto.com exchange six hours ago. When this company bought 11,542 BTC in July-August 2024 at an average price of $118,529, it has since sold 7,281 BTC at an average price of only $74,860, resulting in a paper loss of $318 million. Of the remaining 4,261 tokens, there is still a floating loss of $237 million.
At the same time, Michael Saylor posted on X to reassure the market: "We at MicroStrategy are not forced to sell Bitcoin because of losses; we will continue to maintain net buying going forward." "
On one hand, real money is being sold; on the other, the big shot is saying, "I'm not selling"—pay attention to the timing and direction of this move.
Trump's "time lag" has never been a coincidence
Recall several of Trump's "brilliant moves":
Before announcing Bitcoin orders in early 2025, its subsidiary Trump Media had already started building BTC positions
Before several key policy shifts (tariffs, China policy, crypto regulation), his personal or company's actions were always "acting before the news is announced."
During the Senate push for the CLARITY Act, he personally posted a message calling for "accelerated passage"
This family always "adjusts positions to the appropriate positions before news comes out." This time, however, they chose to transfer 2,628 BTC to exchanges before the crucial August 10 summer break window for the CLARITY Act.
Exchange's features: transfer to the exchange ≠ sell. But moving into the exchange = "ready to sell."
If the Trump team simply thinks "BTC's price is okay, let's take some profits first," then there's no problem. But what if he knows something he shouldn't know?
Is the CLARITY bill going to stall next week?
A brief summary of the plot:
On July 22, Senator Lummis released a 616-page bipartisan merger document, which includes developer protection clauses and Solidity legislation to strictly prevent compliance arbitrage;
On August 10, the Senate enters summer break, and the CLARITY Act must pass before then—the final window to pass within 2026;
The probability of passing on Polymarket has dropped from 80% at the beginning of the year to less than 30% now;
On the Democratic side, Chris Murphy and Chris Van Hollen publicly questioned whether CLARITY would provide compliance endorsement for the Trump family's crypto assets;
SEC Chairman Atkins has already hinted: if Congress does not pass, the SEC will "set the rules itself."
All signs are pointing to the same thing: the bill is very unlikely to pass next week.
And these moves by the Trump family—whether Trump Media's BTC reduction or Truth Social's earlier rumored plans to build a DeFi platform—are tightly tied to a "clear crypto regulatory framework." CLARITY fails = crypto regulation remains gray = the Trump family's crypto layout is under short-term pressure.
If you were on Trump's team, what would you do? Before the news is fully public, they quietly cash out some high-end BTC positions, keep enough cash, and buy back at a low price once the bill really fails.
This "insider information → position first" scenario has never lacked stories in the US stock market and crypto circles.
So, will $BTC drop next week?
Laying out the data:
Bearish signals (accumulating):
Trump Media phased selling (realized loss of 318 million, still selling)
The CLARITY Act is highly likely to be yellow, and the crypto regulatory framework remains unclear
The US-Iran war is not over, oil prices remain high, and expectations for a rate hike in September remain high
BTC spot ETFs were still seeing outflows in July, with institutional incremental funds not yet arriving
Technicals: BTC has been consolidating sideways in the 62,000-64,000 range for two months, with the focus slowly shifting downward
Bullish signals (also present):
Michael Saylor publicly promised not to sell and to keep buying
Spot ETFs began to shift inflows at the end of July ($197 million in the past week)
BTC on-chain indicators do not show panic selling
Net inflows into spot ETFs in the second quarter only recently recovered
Balance of strength: Bears have the advantage but are not overwhelming. The real turning point is the outcome of the CLARITY Act and the Trump family's next move—if the Senate really fails next Monday and the Trump family continues selling BTC, it will likely trigger a 5%-8% pullback, putting the 60,000 mark directly to the test.
In short
The actions of the Trump family have never been isolated incidents. The fate of the CLARITY Act is uncertain. Trump Media has already lost $555 million in BTC, and if the bill fails next week, this floating loss will only widen—they'll keep selling, and the market will see it.
Saylor said, "I'm not selling," which was the last reassurance for the agency. But if the Trump family continues to crash the market, the reassurance will become a worthless piece of paper.
Two things to watch next week: the bill's voting results and Trump Media's on-chain actions. The former sets the direction, the latter sets the amplitude.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
#新手必看: Everything you need is here $121 $XSOXL, surging over the weekend—would you dare to take it?
Let's start with the market surface. Retrieved at 22:22 Beijing time on August 2, 2026, OKX spot XSOXL-USDT was quoted at 120.66. In 24 hours, it rose from 112.75 to a high of 123.51, with a low of 111.28, an increase of about 7.02%. The turnover was 1.1347 million USDT, and the 24-hour VWAP was at 118.94. On OKX's official Unified Tokenized Stocks list, it is listed as tokenized US stock/ETF spot stocks, not just by the X prefix; Assets like OKX can be traded 24/7, and today is the weekend, so the price movement may differ from traditional US stock market pricing after opening.
The first layer of contradiction: it is indeed strong, but so strong it feels a bit crowded. Looking horizontally, among the same pool, XSOX ranks first, with XMRVL about +2.76%, XMU about +2.47%, and XINTC about +2.20%, showing a clear gap in strength. The problem is that the 1-hour RSI 14 has reached 76.70, MA7 is at 121.36, MA20 is at 118.02, prices are fluctuating above the short-term moving average, and the comfort zone at the lower levels has passed.
Second layer of conflict: The trading volume exceeds one million, but the order book isn't thick enough to be freely set in intensity. Buy one at 120.65, sell one at 120.73, price difference 0.08, about 0.066%; The 0.5% buy depth is about 38,400 USDT, the sell order is about 37,000 USDT, the 1% buy price is about 116,500, and the sell order is only 44,200. Small orders look smooth, but if you chase the price with a larger one, slippage will immediately remind you that this is an early tokenized asset.
Third layer of contradiction: 24 hours are strong, but in recent hours it has cooled down. It was almost flat for 2 hours, and in 6 hours it fell from 122.01 to 120.66, down about 1.11%; The 24-hour candlestick rose about 7.04%, and the 3-day price remained up about 6.19%. It's more like a wave of high-level turnover after a wave of weekend liquidity, not mindless one-sidedness.
In terms of position, I will first watch the 118.9-120 range, as it can hold the VWAP and short-term bullish positions haven't faded yet; if it falls below 118 and can't recover within an hour, the logic for chasing gains should be downgraded first. The stronger support is between 112.7 and 111.3. If this is broken, it means the weekend rally has basically failed. For resistance above, first look for 123.5; only negotiate 126-128 after volume increases and hold; if you can't break through, it's easy to keep grinding.
In the short term, avoid chasing the highest point; first look for support near 120. For the swing period, see if the above 118 can hold sideways with reduced volume, then decide if there is a second upward move. In the medium to long term, I only observe it as an OKX tokenized ETF. The core is not to guess a weekend's price swings, but to see if million-level transactions can be sustained and whether the market depth can keep up. #XSOXL #OKX #代币化美股 #RWA #美股ETFJuly was supposed to be the month everyone caught their breath after June's liquidation chaos.
Instead, crypto hit the switch and went straight into revenge rally mode.
$BEAT climbed steadily from the low-$58K region to nearly $67K before settling around $ETH completely stole the spotlight.
Ethereum ripped from just above $1.5K to almost $2K, delivering a monthly gain close to 20%. Institutional inflows quietly returned, staking demand stayed healthy, and the ETH/BTC ratio pushed to its highest level in months, signaling renewed confidence in the second-largest crypto.
The macro backdrop wasn't exactly friendly. The Fed stayed on hold, oil prices swung wildly, and AI stocks lost momentum. Yet crypto barely blinked.
Why? June had already done the dirty work. Excess leverage was flushed out, forced sellers were exhausted, and weak hands had largely disappeared. That meant every dip found buyers faster, and every bounce carried more momentum.
By month-end, altcoins like $BTC were finally waking up, while the broader market posted one of its strongest monthly performances in a long time.
If July had a headline, it would be simple:
While traditional markets were busy riding a roller coaster, crypto quietly reclaimed the narrative.
Now all eyes turn to August.
Historically, August hasn't always been kind to Bitcoin, with seasonal weakness appearing in several cycles. Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen, but one thing is certain:
July reminded the market that when crypto decides to move, it doesn't wait for permission.
#SpaceXUnlockLooms
#USWeighsIranStrike
#MSFTCapexOnPaper The biggest trap for retail investors has never been the price, but the "unit price illusion." 🎯
You think you're buying cheap projects, but you're actually buying chips with high FDV and low circulation—you're not an investor at all, you're VC exit liquidity.
The chart looks "low," but behind it lies the monthly periodic unlocking of selling pressure. Unlocking is selling—this is structural reality 😤
This script has been played out repeatedly:
L2 and infrastructure projects: $ARB $OP $STRK $ZK $BLAST $MANTA $ALT $DYM $TIA
L1 and oracle: $SUI $APT $SEI $PYTH $JUP $W $EIGEN $REZ $ETHFI
All of them were completely destroyed when large-scale unlocks arrived. The Sword of Damocles is real ⚔️
Funds will only flow where supply is clean.
DeFi and RWA leaders are the winners: $ONDO $MKR $AAVE $UNI $PENDLE $ENA $SNX $CRV $COMP $LDO $RPL
There is real income, unlocks are predictable, and there are no surprises.
AI and projects with real needs in DePIN are equally strong: $TAO $FET $NEAR $RNDR $AKT $AIOZ $GRT $THETA $FIL $AR
And what about the gaming sector? Basically crushed repeatedly by ecosystem unlocking: $GALA $BEAM $IMX $AXS $SAND $MANA $PIXEL $PORTAL $PRIME $ILV
The token price is always paying for unlocking; no matter how good the trend is, it can't hold up
Stay.
What's the most ironic?
The burned retail investors eventually hid in the Meme:$PEPE $WIF $BONK $FLOKI $POPCAT $BOME $DOGE $SHIB $MOG $BRETT
No VC lock-up period, no unlock table, only fair issuance.
Before looking at the price, let's first look at the tokenomics 📉
#AMZNMissesButRallies #30YYieldAt19YHigh #MSFT450BInADayThe U.S. Treasury, through the New York Fed, commissioned Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to execute foreign exchange operations, entering the market by selling euros and buying yen to support the yen. This is the first time in nearly 30 years that the U.S. has directly intervened in the yen exchange rate intervention; In the past, only Japan's Ministry of Finance managed yen rescues alone, while the US mostly made verbal statements. I. Key points of operation details: 1. The US side did not use its dollar reserves but exchanged in euros to avoid direct impacts on the dollar index; 2. Choose two leading investment banks as trading channels, discreetly entering the market to reduce short-term market shocks; 3. Coordinate with Japan's Ministry of Finance to intervene, with Japan simultaneously "selling dollars and buying yen," forming a joint force. 2. The Fundamental Motive for the U.S. Intervention (Not Simply Helping Japan) 1. Protecting the U.S. Treasury Market (the Core): Japan is the largest overseas creditor of the U.S., holding over $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. If the yen continues to plummet uncontrollably, Japan will have no choice but to sell massive amounts of US Treasuries to exchange for US dollars. Large-scale bond sell-offs will directly push up U.S. Treasury yields, increase interest payment pressure on U.S. fiscal policy, and threaten the stability of U.S. debt. 2. Preventing a trillion-yen carry trade collapse There is a massive global volume of yen carry trades: borrowing low-interest yen to buy US stocks, commodities, and overseas bonds. If the yen depreciates sharply and then rebounds rapidly, it will trigger concentrated liquidations, triggering a chain sell-off of global stock markets and risk assets. 3. Stabilizing the Asia-Pacific Financial Supply Chain Japan and South Korea are core supply chains for the U.S. AI and semiconductors. A sustained sharp decline in the yen will intensify competitive devaluation of regional currencies and impact Asian assetsFour earnings reports next week, Circle is the finale
There are four earnings reports next week:
Palantir, AMD, SpaceX, Circle.
But honestly, the information the first three can provide has basically been given in the last round of tech giant earnings, which is to verify whether AI demand is genuinely strong or just hype. This expectation has been repeatedly traded in the market, so even if there is deviation, the marginal impact won't be too large.
Instead, the last one, Circle, is the most worth watching.
Coinbase revenue dropped 18.5%, Robinhood crypto revenue fell nearly 40%, and USDT growth has stopped. Three reports from the crypto side have already been submitted, all pointing in the same direction—the market is shrinking. But one thing hasn't been confirmed yet: is the capital really leaving, or is it just changing containers?
Circle's answer can confirm this. If USDC circulation is rising, it means the money hasn't gone far, just waiting for a compliant entry point. If it also falls, then it really is a net outflow, and the stablecoin market is shrinking overall.
This concerns a more fundamental question:
whether institutional funds are still waiting at the door. The scale of compliant stablecoins is a leading indicator of this issue.
As for the rest, there's nothing much to focus on. Just do your own well.
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit Wall Street is using ETFs to bring capital into the crypto space. Now, crypto exchanges are reversing the trend and listing US perpetual contracts, making the two-way flow of funds a done deal. The data is astonishing: in the first five months of this year, the trading volume of traditional asset perpetual contracts surged to 1.32 trillion yuan, far exceeding last year's total. Stock trading on the Bitget platform now accounts for 28% of total trading volume.
Looking at on-chain data, whales have been continuously hoarding BTC and ETH recently, but native crypto trading volume remains sluggish, with some funds being diverted to US stock contracts. Coupled with Fed policy differences and a temporary easing in the Middle East, Bitcoin remains stuck in the $62,000-66,000 price range.
Traditional funds continuously penetrate the crypto world through contract channels, bringing incremental fresh water in the medium to long term, but in the short term, capital diverting suppresses market breakouts. Currently, the market is still waiting for liquidity signals from the August Jackson Hole meeting, with no expectations for easing, making it difficult to break out of the trend.
Do you think this batch of funds trading US stocks will turn to BTC in the future?📈 Bitcoin is showing early signs of strength.
$BTC /$USDT is trading around $63,188, up 0.58% over the past 24 hours.
After dipping to $62,268, buyers stepped in quickly and reclaimed the $63K level, indicating demand remains intact despite recent selling pressure.
📊 Market Snapshot
• Price: $63,188
• 24H High: $63,639
• 24H Low: $62,268
• 24H Volume: 2.51K BTC
• 24H Turnover: 158.38M USDT
🔍 Technical Outlook
On the 15-minute chart, Bitcoin is attempting to build support above $63,000, a level that could serve as the foundation for another push higher.
📍 Resistance: $63,600
A decisive breakout above this level could accelerate bullish momentum.
📍 Support: $62,800–$62,300
This remains the key demand zone if sellers regain control.
Low volatility often comes before a larger move. Rather than chasing price, wait for confirmation and let the market reveal its direction.
⏳ The next few hours could be pivotal, determining whether $BTC extends its recovery or revisits key support levels.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms On July 30, 2026, 594.5 BTC ($38 million) were swept out of 500 Coldcard wallets in bulk within 25 minutes. Root cause: A #ifndef in firmware only checks whether a macro is "defined" rather than a value. As a result, the build script sets it to 0 (closed), and the hardware true random number generator is silently replaced by a pseudo-random number generator Yasmarang—Mk2/Mk3 actually has ≈ entropy of only 40 bits (expected 128 bits), Mk4+ about 72 bits.
Who did it: Coldcard's source code is fully open source. The official team believes AI was used for line-by-line auditing to find this bug that went unnoticed for four years.
Who hasn't been hacked: those using BIP-39 passphrases, ≥ 50 dice rolls, multisig wallets are all safe.
The biggest lesson: hardware wallets ≠ absolutely secure; a single #ifndef can destroy an entire line of defense. Open source is a double-edged sword—white hats can review, black hats can attack. Any self-custodial funds must have an extra layer of independent defense: BIP-39 passphrase (cheapest), multi-signature, external entropy sources. One step of verification can't be skipped.The $5b Strategy BTC overhang is overstated. The figure adds a reserve bucket, the then-current $1.76b annual cash bill and two optional buyback authorizations... the bill can change and the program can be suspended. Strategy held $3.75b in USD on July 26, enough for about 2.1 years of then-current preferred dividends and interest. During July 20-26 it added $525m to that reserve from MSTR ATM proceeds and spent $25m buying back STRC. Repeated BTC sales alongside falling reserve coverage would create structural supply. Until that happens, the $5b overhang remains a weak BTC bear case.
#USWeighsIranStrike The "$5B Strategy $BTC overhang" narrative is exaggerated.
That figure combines several different items: a cash reserve allocation, the then-current $1.76B annual cash obligation, and two optional share buyback authorizations. None of these are fixed—the cash requirement can change, and the buyback program can be paused if needed.
As of July 26, Strategy held $3.75B in USD, enough to cover roughly 2.1 years of preferred dividends and interest at the then-current run rate.
Between July 20–26, the company strengthened its liquidity by adding $525M from MSTR ATM proceeds while using just $25M for STRC buybacks.
A genuine bearish concern would only emerge if Strategy began selling $BTC consistently while its cash reserves continued to decline, creating sustained structural selling pressure.
Until then, the "$5B $BTC overhang" remains a weak argument for a bearish Bitcoin outlook.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms Four earnings reports next week, Circle is the finale
There are four earnings reports next week:
Palantir, AMD, SpaceX, Circle.
But honestly, the information the first three can provide has basically been given in the last round of tech giant earnings, which is to verify whether AI demand is genuinely strong or just hype. This expectation has been repeatedly traded in the market, so even if there is deviation, the marginal impact won't be too large.
Instead, the last one, Circle, is the most worth watching.
Coinbase revenue dropped 18.5%, Robinhood crypto revenue fell nearly 40%, and USDT growth has stopped. Three reports from the crypto side have already been submitted, all pointing in the same direction—the market is shrinking. But one thing hasn't been confirmed yet: is the capital really leaving, or just changing containers?
Circle's answer can confirm this. If USDC circulation is rising, it means the money hasn't gone far, just waiting for a compliant entry point. If it also falls, then it really is a net outflow, and the stablecoin market is shrinking overall.
This concerns a more fundamental question:
whether institutional funds are still waiting at the door. The scale of compliant stablecoins is a leading indicator of this issue.
As for the rest, there's nothing much to focus on, just do your own well.
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit When determining that the market has bottomed, which signal do I trust the most?
After several cycles, I have concluded one thing: the most reliable "bottom" signal does not lie in news or crowd sentiment, but in the actual average cost of long-term holders.
The indicator I monitor most closely is the Long-Term Holder Realized Price. This is the average price at which $BTC coins that have "slept" for more than 155 days were purchased. Simply put: it shows where the most patient holders have their capital costs.
Historically, every prolonged bear market, BTC almost always approaches or dips below this level. When the price stays below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price for a while, then starts to stabilize and form a base, I consider that a low-risk zone to begin serious DCA. No need to catch the exact bottom, just stand on the side of the "hardest to move" money.
I also combine this with NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). When NUPL falls below 0, it means most holders would be at a loss if they sold immediately. This is the market's "pain" state. History shows that negative NUPL zones often appear near major bottoms. When both signals converge (price below LTH cost + negative NUPL), I feel more confident to gradually increase my position.
Conversely, I rarely use the Short-Term Holder Realized Price to catch bottoms. This indicator is more suitable for managing positions in a bull market, not for identifying cycle bottoms.
Personal experience: the times I patiently waited for the long-term holders' cost zone and a clear deterioration in NUPL before gradually deploying capital, the long-term results were always better than trying to catch bottoms based on intuition. The market may still move sideways or trigger stops once more, but the probability of being trapped long-term is much lower.
In summary, the signal I trust most when identifying bottoms is:
Price below the average cost of long-term holders + NUPL turning negative.
That is when the "smart and patient" money starts to regain dominance.
#OKXTraderVoices Currently, the Ethereum market has entered a phase of mainstream capital outflows, and a high point is expected in the future, making it suitable for short positioning.
There are two entry methods: one is placing a ticket to enter, and the other is waiting for confirmation from the signal on the right before entering
The market may start on Monday, so close attention should be paid to market changes.
$ETH $BTC $SOL #SPCX's first financial report will be released, with hundreds of billions of dollars unlocking imminent ##$
A few thoughts about SpaceX:
I've followed many experts and a lot of information.
SpaceX's first financial report is about to come out, and the stock price has already fallen below the issue price of $135 to around $108.
Let's talk about the financial report and unlocking first.
The first quarterly report since listing will be released after the market closes on August 4, and the real test will come after the report. On August 6, about 911.5 million eligible restricted shares can be sold, which, at recent stock prices, amounts to over $100 billion, exceeding the current public float. The founder's shares are locked until 2027, and Musk himself will not participate in selling, but the selling pressure from early investors and employee shareholders is real. Starlink's revenue grew 50% year-over-year last year, but the company overall lost nearly $5 billion last year. Whether the financial report can provide a profitable path for Starlink will determine if the unlocking can be absorbed.
My view: Beyond the candlestick chart, do you believe in Elon Musk? Do early investors and employee shareholders believe in him? Or, how much do they want to sell?
Before August 4, there will likely be a battle around the financial report and unlocking. The stock price will probably fall below $100, then Musk will introduce positive measures, but these benefits might take time, as Musk may not care about the stock price right now. Currently, Musk seems more concerned with personal power struggles; for him, a lower stock price might even be advantageous in internal conflicts, as Musk's value also needs to be proven to capital. Will early investors and employee shareholders think this way? Will they sell near $100 to the market, or sell to Musk? Will Musk want to buy?
What I will do: Buy the spot on dips, and short with leverage in the short term.
Personal opinion, let's encourage each other!Here's a clearer and more concise version:
The "$5B Strategy $BTC overhang" narrative is being overstated.
That figure combines multiple items: a reserve allocation, the then-current $1.76B annual cash obligation, and optional share buyback authorizations. Those obligations aren't fixed—the cash bill can change, and the buyback program can be paused at any time.
As of July 26, Strategy held $3.75B in $USD1 , enough to cover roughly 2.1 years of preferred dividends and interest based on the then-current run rate.
Between July 20–26, the company added $525M to its cash reserve through MSTR ATM proceeds while spending only $25M on STRC buybacks.
The real risk would emerge only if Strategy began selling $BTC repeatedly while its cash reserve coverage continued to shrink, creating sustained structural selling pressure.
Until that happens, the "$5B BTC overhang" remains an unconvincing bearish argument.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms Monday's US Stock Market Opening Preview | Fed Divergence Suppresses Market, Earnings Week Faces Key Battles
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale
After reviewing the market logic over the weekend, let's briefly discuss the Tomorrow Beauty market strategy.
Last week's FOMC meeting was a key turning point: the Fed kept rates unchanged, but a 9:3 vote pattern appeared, marking the first time since 2016 that three votes against rate hikes were voted against. Walsh made it clear that the 2% inflation target remains unchanged, rejecting market fantasies about rate cuts.
The biggest current contradiction: traders are still weighing policy turning points, but the Fed has sent a signal—the anti-inflation process is far from over. The mismatch between market and Fed expectations means short-term volatility will continue to amplify, so don't easily gamble on one-sided options.
The sector landscape has clearly shifted:
AI technology remains the core of funding, but no longer blindly grouping together. With intensified volatility in high-level chips and memory, SNDK has seen significant drawdowns as its August 5 earnings report approaches, entering a pre-report game window with extremely high bottom-fishing risk;
Capital began to divert outward, with finance, industrials, and defense sectors gradually gaining capital allocation; The energy sector continues to be shaken by geopolitical and oil price disruptions, with uncertainty at its peak.
Key Highlights Tomorrow Monday:
✅ ISM manufacturing PMI data, observing manufacturing prosperity and inflation sub-items;
✅ Pre-market and after-market earnings reports from multiple companies (PLTR, SNAP) will boost sentiment in sub-sectors;
✅ U.S. Treasury yield trends: continued increases in yields will keep suppressing valuations of long-term stocks.
Practical approach:
At this stage, heavy positions are not suitable for chasing trades. Frequent bullish and bearish inducements on the market, with repeated stop-loss sweeps being the norm.
Maintain a steady mindset while waiting for direction confirmation; aggressive traders strictly control positions and reduce stop-losses.
Focus on whether the Nasdaq can hold short-term support; if tech stocks continue to weaken, funds will further shift toward defensive sectors.
Risk Warning: In the latter half of this week, there will be major ADP and nonfarm payroll data, and volatility will gradually rise throughout the week. Tomorrow's opening is just the beginning of this week's rally.
On Monday, are you inclined to reduce positions on rallies or wait for pullbacks to position your position? $SPCX facing its biggest test since listing. Stock down over 40% from the post-IPO peak, trading near $108-123 as the first earnings report and a massive share unlock line up back to back.
Q2 earnings drop August 4, then two trading days later on August 6, roughly 911.5M shares worth close to $116B become tradable, the largest lockup unlock in market history. A second, bigger tranche follows Q3 earnings, with the full schedule wrapping by December.
Elon Musk's own stake stays locked until mid-2027, so this wave is all early investors and employees deciding whether to cash out.
Fundamentals are split: Starlink is printing strong growth and real profit, but the AI segment and core launch business are both bleeding cash. That gap between the growth story and the current losses is exactly why volatility is expected to spike into the event.
$108 support has held so far, does it hold through the unlock, or does the supply wave finally break it? #OKXOrbit #SPCXI started shouting about this coin from 0.1, and now it's finally verified
I'm not talking about my own positions, but my way of reading the market
All day today, I focused on one thing: can BTC hold above 63,000?
Then guess what
It broke below 63,000 and pulled back, closing near 63,123, a false breakout
ETH 1855, SOL 73.11—each of the three brothers is steadier than the last
The end of the day sums up today in one sentence: sideways movement is the biggest message
No volume breakout, no panic crash—it's just endurance
In the exhausting market, the biggest taboo is having itchy hands
Today, BTC's low was 62,268, and the high was 63,639, with an amplitude of only 2%.
In this market, both going long and short means giving the exchange a fee
So my judgment is that today I should just lie down and watch the show
Tomorrow is the last day of the weekend, so liquidity is thinner, so don't move around
And by the way, let's take a look at what everyone has been talking about lately:
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
KOSPI surged 14% in a single day, setting a new record. South Korean authorities even exercised emergency measures, pushing leveraged ETF multiples down to 1.5 times. Regulators are cooling the overheated. Asian risk appetite money comes and goes quickly—don't chase such extreme market trends.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has reached a 19-year high, with long-term rates suppressing global risk asset valuations. BTC's sideways movement isn't strong, it's that rates haven't relaxed. Next week is the nonfarm payroll and earnings releases, and the tug-of-war between rates and data will determine the direction. We'll see when it materializes.
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning
Iran's energy facilities have been included in the strike zone, and even embassies have issued evacuation warnings. Geopolitical risks are still increasing, oil prices and risk aversion could surge at any moment, and BTC will shake in the short term. But geopolitical news comes and goes quickly—don't over-invest in directional gambling.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #日终复盘 #横盘I'm now full of cash, unsure whether I should enter
It's the weekend, everyone else is sharing vacation photos, and I'm torn about whether to buy at the bottom
BTC 63123 has been sideways all day, neither moving up nor down
Then guess what
Next week's news will be even more intense than this week's
SPCX's first earnings report stacked over 100 billion yuan to unlock lock, AMD SanDisi Digital collectively released its results
US July nonfarm payroll data is also coming out, with Circle making the final draw
With so many events crammed into one week, it's hard to even think about the fluctuations
Now that I have cash in hand, I actually feel reassured
Because I know there will definitely be opportunities next week, and what's missing isn't chance, but bullets
Weekend markets are usually very exhausting, with thin liquidity and many insertions
My habit is not to increase my position on weekends, and to wait until Monday and Tuesday when the direction comes out before making a move
So my judgment is not to rush into the market this weekend
Hold onto your bullets—next week's earnings and non-farm payrolls will have more opportunities than now
Back to hot topics outside the market, a few interesting things happened today:
#亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元: Bet or bubble
Amazon invested $50 billion in OpenAI, and the giants are betting that AI can generate even greater returns. This money will eventually flow into hardware industry chains like chips and storage, which is indirectly positive for the crypto AI narrative. But implementation takes time—don't expect prices to rise tomorrow.
#HYPE再遭亿元解押, Japanese companies entered the market for the first time
HYPE has unstaking over 100 million tokens again. This time, a Japanese company is taking over for the first time. The biggest fear of unpledging is no one taking over; if someone joins, it means a shakeout of the market; no one takes in is an avalanche. So far, the acceptance seems decent, but we need to keep a close eye on whether there will be any new unstaking next week.
#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
The US pulled Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to intervene in the yen, indicating that exchange rate fluctuations have become so severe that officials have intervened. When the yen stabilizes, Asian funds stabilize, which is indirect positive for crypto. However, the intervention itself is also a risk signal, causing cross-border capital to circulate back and forth.
$BTC $ETH #周末展望 #非农I discovered a pattern: every time I sold coins, the price went up
Later, I understood—it wasn't me pointing back, it was the community sentiment deceiving me
Every time I was brainwashed by the voices of people shouting orders in the group, the price would rise as soon as I sold
Then guess what
Today, the community's mood hit rock bottom again
BTC hovered around 63,000 all day, and the group was full of sighs
But there's an interesting data point on the chain: the volume of small Bitcoin transfers has surged to its highest level since the FTX collapse
Panicked people are frantically moving coins, which is one of the signals of emotional bottom
Whenever the market is at its most desperate, it's often when chips are cheapest
I don't believe those in the group who call for zero, nor do I believe those who call for doubling
I only trust sentiment indicators and on-chain data
The total supply of USDT and USDC is still hovering at 183.3 billion and $72 billion, respectively
The money hasn't left; people just panic, and once they're panicking, they'll come back
So my judgment is, the colder the community sentiment now, the less afraid it is
Going against the crowd in the group isn't always right, but following panic is definitely wrong
Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, with several directions worth watching:
#Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons
Tether earned $1.5 billion in Q1, gold increased to 146 tons, and stablecoin giants are seeing new highs in profits and reserves, indicating that real demand for crypto payments is expanding. When sentiment is at a freezing point, looking at these underlying data is more reassuring than watching candlesticks.
#"AI Stock God" funds liquidate positions, Micron rises over 15% in a single day
The AI Stock God Fund just cleared its AI positions, and Micron rose over 15% in a single dayLadies, my hands are shaking while doing makeup today
Not because of the market, but because of the report from CICC
He said this round of AI pullback is very similar to the four drawdowns of the 2000 internet bubble
Then guess what
The report added that stabilization requires relief of all three major pressures
To put it plainly: don't expect a V-shaped reversal in the short term
The mainstream consensus in the market now is that AI is about to collapse and tech stocks are doomed
But I checked Micron—it rose over 15% in a single day—a huge slap in the face
That AI stock god fund had just cleared its holdings, only to be immediately taught by the market
Anti-consensus isn't about going against everyone; it's about looking at data when others are panicking
Storage demand rising until 2028 is what Bank of America Merrill Lynch said, not something I made up
So my judgment is that this round of decline feels more like a shakeout than a top
Panicked people sell emotions, smart people pick up bargains—don't follow the crowd and cut losses
By the way, I also took a look at recent developments, which are in several directions:
#折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance was lowered
Microsoft extended the depreciation period to 25 years and lowered its capital expenditure guidance. On the surface, this is a cut in AI spending, but in reality, it is diluting costs over a longer period. The giants haven't stopped, just changed their bookkeeping methods. Don't mistake accounting adjustments for the AI recession.
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
The CLARITY Act missed the recess window again, stablecoin regulation remains on hold, and there is no new policy stimulus in the short term. But this does not mean the industry is halted; rather, it gives time for projects to truly get things done. Don't treat legislative delays as a board📊 BTC/ETH 趋势分析｜8月02日｜ETH
🔴 当前偏向：看跌
$ETH 目前仍运行在 EMA20 和 EMA50 下方，短期市场结构偏弱。近期的反弹更像是一次技术性修复，而不是明确的趋势反转信号。
与此同时，未平仓合约（OI）持续上升，但价格仍承受压力，表明市场空头力量目前占据一定优势，短期交易仍需保持谨慎。
📌 交易数据
当前价格： $1,878.68
24小时涨跌： +0.42%
EMA20： $1,879.05
EMA50： $1,885.28
RSI14： 37.1
资金费率： +0.0098%
OI变化： +0.63%
成交量： 约为过去20根K线平均成交量的0.21倍
🎯 关键支撑： $1,822.06
🚧 关键阻力： $1,893.33
📌 接下来重点关注：
如果多头想要扭转短期弱势，$ETH 首先需要重新站稳 EMA20，随后进一步突破 EMA50。
如果反弹无法突破并站稳 EMA20，ETH 再次测试 $1,822 支撑区域的概率将进一步增加。
⚠️ 风险提示： 如果关键支撑被放量跌破，短期看跌动能可能进一步增强，市场弱势或将持续。
总结： 在 $ETH 重新收复关键均线之前，短期趋势仍然偏向谨慎看跌。📉
$ETH $BTC
#ETH #Ethereum #BTC #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #Altcoins #DailyOrbit After Microsoft's earnings call, the stock price surged over 8% in after-hours at the moment the capital expenditure guidance was released, with single-day market capitalization growth setting a new record for US stocks.
Funds have flowed into heavy tech stocks in a short period, and previously safe-haven positions accumulated due to concerns about AI overburning have collectively replenished.
The financial report extended the depreciation period for data centers to 25 years and adjusted the leasing classification, releasing about $15 billion in capital expenditure pressure on the books.
The rapid recovery in market sentiment was based on expectations of profit release from accounting adjustments, but this did not change the actual scale of real computing power investment.
If Azure's revenue growth in subsequent quarters remains above 40%, it proves that the AI business can continue to generate real profits, and the valuation premium will be maintained; If cloud business growth slows, this path becomes ineffective.
If upstream chip shipment cycles for Nvidia and others shorten further, early equipment retirement will force concentrated deferred depreciation provisions, and if profits are damaged, it will trigger a stampede on positions; If chip supply and demand slow, this risk will be delayed.
The divergence of these two capital expenditure routes ultimately depends on whether the market's risk appetite for AI infrastructure returns has systematically reversed.
In the next seven days, close attention will be paid to the deviation between Google and Microsoft in actual capital expenditure, as well as the latest response of tech bond yields to inflation expectations.
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issues evacuation warnings #亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元: Bet or bubble #新手必看: Everything you need is hereTwo years ago, they had a round of $ETH, and this time the old whale has increased their positions
That address has come back again.
Two years ago, it opened a $ETH position near $2,459, then exited around $3,159, with a single token spread of about $700 and a range return of approximately 28.5%. Based on disclosed data, the operation scale at the time was about 1,000 ETH.
This move is noticeably larger: Binance offered 3,500 $ETH, worth about $6.495 million, equivalent to a unit price of $1,856. The amount is about 3.5 times that of the previous round, and the withdrawal price this time is about 24.5% lower than the previous position opening price, and about 41.2% lower than the exit price in the previous round.
It may sound like a familiar script, but it can't be directly defined as "precise bottom-fishing."
When withdrawing from an exchange, it can only confirm that the tokens have left Binance, which may later be transferred to cold wallets or used for staking, lending, or other DeFi strategies. What truly deserves attention is whether these 3,500 ETH remain dormant for a long time and whether the address will continue to withdraw in batches.
On the price side, the $1850 area temporarily serves as the cost observation line for this fund. $ETH If it can hold the $1820–$1850 range and regain above $1880, this withdrawal will feel more like a planned left-side layout; If $1820 falls, whales will have to face the question of whether to continue adding positions or wait for now.
The most interesting aspect of the chain isn't copying every whale's move, but observing how someone who once managed the cycle correctly is now willing to take on new risks at what price.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 The clear bill completely missed the August window, stuck in a moral clause dispute over whether Trump can trade cryptocurrencies. The House passed early, the Senate committee passed, and the final push dragged the bill along. The probability of passage within the year is less than 40%, likely to be delayed until the next Congress. BTC/ETH's characterization remains uncertain; the SEC should sue or not, and the crypto world continues to run naked in gray areas.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK When others are afraid, am I greedy? No, I was afraid too, but I still bought it
I bought coins related to the storage sector because I understood the underlying logic
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Samsung's long-term contract price is capped on price declines but not increases, and storage demand can rise until 2028
Then guess what
Micron rose over 15% in a single day, directly slapping the face of the AI stock god fund
That fund had just cleared its AI positions a few days ago, and then Micron surged dramatically
Roundhill's DRAM fund reduced its $432 million stake in Samsung and went to buy Changxin Technology
Funds for storage chips are changing hands, looking for cheaper positions
This round of AI rally isn't over—it's shifting direction
From computing power to storage, from large models to hardware
Whether it's mining machines or staking, at the end of the day, it's all about betting on long-term demand for computing power and storage
I don't buy much, just a little, because I'm afraid too
But what I fear is chasing highs, not that I'm afraid of going in the wrong direction
So my judgment is that the logic behind storing the narrative remains, and the pullback is the opportunity
Just buy in batches, don't shuttle all at once, and don't jump around like those clearing institutions
Let's also chat about a few trending topics to see if any of them are worth following:
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning
Iran's tension has tightened again. Once energy facilities are attacked, oil prices and safe-haven sentiment will surge together, and BTC may shake in the short term. But I don't think geopolitics can change the overall direction. If something big happens, wait until it happens. Don't scare yourself before it happens.
#亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元: Bet or bubble$AVAX is a relatively mature public blockchain in terms of technology, but currently it resembles an aging narrative and a sluggish old L1—with institutional cooperation and RWA highlights, but difficult to translate into sustained token value capture and ecosystem explosion.
Avalanche's protocol revenue has long been low (early 2026 data shows a daily average of only about $8,000), clearly mismatched with its market capitalization. Upgrades like Subnets / Avalanche9000 have reduced deployment costs, but a large amount of activity may flow to independent L1 chains, further diluting C-Chain's direct demand for $AVAX. Holding $AVAX is more like gambling on the "overall success of the ecosystem" rather than directly sharing protocol revenue.
Historically, TVL has fallen from its peak, dropping from the top three to a mid-tier level. Data is highly sensitive to incentive programs and bull markets; once subsidies decrease or the market cools, activity and capital quickly disappear. Compared to highly active chains like Solana and Base, there is still a significant gap in genuine user stickiness and daily active users.
The high-performance L1 segment has long been saturated. Avalanche's "subnet" narrative was innovative in the early days, but now almost all mainstream public blockchains are promoting application-chain/modular solutions. Institutional cooperation (such as those related to RWA) sounds impressive, but the actual scale and sustainability of implementation remain to be verified, making it difficult to form a true moat.
The aftereffects of early high valuations remain. The selling pressure from unlocking and staking rewards, combined with ecosystem growth falling short of expectations, has long left $AVAX in a state of "having a story but lacking catalysts." The market has developed a certain degree of aesthetic fatigue with it.
Labels like "enterprise-level public chain" and "institution-friendly" have been talked about for years. In today's environment, where capital is more focused on RWA implementation, AI integration, and real returns, pure L1 narratives are increasingly struggling to attract incremental capital. If you can't quickly find killer apps or stabilize cash flow, it's easy to remain marginalized.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard US stock tokenization is draining the last liquidity from the crypto world
**BTC 63066 is trading sideways, volume ratio -53%, fear index 27. ** It's not that no one is playing, it's that everyone is going next door to play tokenized US stocks.
XSOXL was +7.33% in one day, with a volatility of 10.8% and a turnover of $1.13M—**With this volatility, even mainstream crypto cryptocurrencies can be put to shame. ** Meanwhile, XSNDK is up +1.53%, and shorts on NASDAQ are also making money.
**On the surface, 4 rises and 1 falls, but in reality, funds are splitting:** XSPY steady +0.38% dividend flow, XSKHY Innovation ETF +1.05% attracting growth gamblers, XSPCX down -0.39%, no one wants it. **Differentiation is opportunity. **
On the macro side, earnings season + AI semiconductor recovery is leading with AMD and Sandisk. The Nasdaq-100 has just experienced its worst month since March 2025, and **every candlestick that is now rebounding is a blood-soaked chip**.
What about the crypto world? Trump Media sold another 2,628 BTC, reducing its position to 4,261. **Big players are pulling out, retail investors are waiting. **
My practice: short AEON holds at 3.28% floating profit, SL at 0.07333; long ADA floating profit at 0.95% followed by momentum. **Money is hard to make in crypto, and US stock tokenization is another table. **
**Conclusion: Crypto is no longer an isolated market, but a derivative of U.S. stock sentiment. ** US stocks rise, crypto is getting a beat; US stocks fell, and the crypto world took a hit. Don't get hyped up—keeping a close eye on XSPY is more useful than tracking BTC. 🐸July was supposed to be the month everyone caught their breath after June's liquidation chaos.
Instead, crypto hit the switch and went straight into revenge rally mode. 🚀
$BTC climbed steadily from the low-$58K region to nearly $67K before settling around $63K, finishing the month up more than 7%. Not bad for an asset many had already written off—and enough to outperform several major tech and chip stocks.
But $ETH completely stole the spotlight.
Ethereum ripped from just above $1.5K to almost $2K, delivering a monthly gain close to 20%. Institutional inflows quietly returned, staking demand stayed healthy, and the ETH/BTC ratio pushed to its highest level in months, signalling renewed confidence in the second-largest crypto.
The macro backdrop wasn't exactly friendly. The Fed stayed on hold, oil prices swung wildly, and AI stocks lost momentum. Yet crypto barely blinked.
Why? June had already done the dirty work. Excess leverage was flushed out, forced sellers were exhausted, and weak hands had largely disappeared. That meant every dip found buyers faster, and every bounce carried more momentum.
By month-end, altcoins like $UNI and $ADA were finally waking up, while the broader market posted one of its strongest monthly performances in a long time.
If July had a headline, it would be simple:
While traditional markets were busy riding a roller coaster, crypto quietly reclaimed the narrative.
Now all
eyes turn to August.
Historically, August hasn't always been kind to Bitcoin, with seasonal weakness appearing in several cycles. Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen, but one thing is certain:
July reminded the market that when crypto decides to move, it doesn't wait for permission.
#DailyOrbit 📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.08.02 (Sunday)
📌 Core judgment
Over the weekend, the market temporarily stabilized, but risk appetite has not truly recovered. AI demand remains strong, but rising crude oil and U.S. Treasury yields are suppressing valuations in tech, storage, and crypto stocks.
💾 Storage industry chain
In July, SanDisk fell about 47% cumulatively, Micron fell about 29%, and SK Hynix and Samsung also saw significant corrections. South Korean storage stocks suddenly surged 20%–30% on Friday, but Micron and SanDisk still fell about 6% and 5.2%, respectively.
This divergence indicates that short-term prices are mainly influenced by deleveraging, short covering, and positioning, and do not mean that industry fundamentals will change overnight.
Demand for AI servers, HBM, and enterprise-grade SSDs remains strong, but the market is also concerned that Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changxin may expand production simultaneously, possibly causing oversupply in the future. The most worthwhile moment is SanDisk's August 6 earnings report, not chasing the single-day surge in Korean storage stocks.
📊 Changxin Technology
In its first week of trading, Changxin Technology closed at 53.97 yuan, reaching as high as 60.60 yuan during trading, with a total market value of about 3.61 trillion yuan.
Due to the small number of shares circulating in the early stages, the current price still reflects clear new stock scarcity and sentiment premium, so it cannot yet be considered a stable valuation. CXMT perpetual on Hyperliquid allows you to observe global capital sentiment, but with A-shares closed and futures trading continuing over the weekend, price differences do not necessarily represent arbitrage opportunities.
🤖 US Stocks and AI
Amazon's sharp rise and Apple's sharp drop once again show that the market is no longer buying the "Big Seven" as a whole. Now, only companies that can prove that AI investments have driven growth in cloud business, revenue, and cash flow will receive higher valuations.
Microsoft and Amazon have temporarily passed the verification; Apple still needs to prove whether AI can truly drive device sales and service revenue.
🪙 Crypto market
BTC has temporarily halted its decline near $63,000, but has yet to strengthen significantly. The security incident involving the old Coldcard firmware over the weekend was related to the implementation of the wallet's private key generation. It wasn't that the Bitcoin network was breached, but it could affect market sentiment in the short term.
HYPE has clearly underperformed BTC over the past week. Platform revenue and long-term ecosystem logic remain, but $50–52 is currently an important area to watch; only if it rises above $56 will selling pressure ease.
🌍 Key Points Next Week
Key Focus:
AMD's financial report
SanDisk's financial report
U.S. ISM data
Friday's nonfarm payroll report
Can Brent crude hold below $95?
💡 My view
The most important thing right now is not chasing daily price swings, but waiting for SanDisk's earnings report to verify the demands for NAND, enterprise SSDs, and data center storage.
If earnings guidance is strong, crude oil prices fall, and U.S. Treasury yields fall, storage stocks may continue to recover; If crude oil breaks above $95 and employment data remains hot, tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will continue to face pressure.
The above is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.