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Your idol is about to be turned into an on-chain asset.
A project called NEXST has emerged, aiming to use AI plus RWA plus VR to become the JYP of the AI idol era. To translate, it means packaging real things like entertainment company idol IPs, concert rights, and merchandise revenue into on-chain assets, then layering AI-generated content and VR experiences on top.
This approach isn't new, just repackaged. The hottest real asset on-chain recently has been government bonds, with BlackRock's BUIDL and various tokenized US Treasuries, all emphasizing stability. NEXST wants to shift on-chain assets from the cold, hard government bonds to young people's entertainment consumption, using idols and fan economy as the story.
For those of us watching the market closely, we need to see clearly what it’s selling. The essence of RWA is bringing real-world cash-flowing assets on-chain so they can be traded 24/7, used as collateral, and split. The logic behind government bonds is clear, with interest written into contracts. Entertainment IP is more nebulous; no one can say how long an idol’s popularity will last. When fans are passionate, valuations look good; when scandals hit, it’s worthless. So even though both are RWA, government bonds have institutional real money backing them, while idols rely entirely on sentiment pricing. The former cushions drops with coupons; the latter can’t even fabricate a reason for someone to buy the dip. Though both are called real assets on-chain, their solidity and risk differ by orders of magnitude.
In the bigger DeFi picture, this is RWA looking for new hosts. On-chain deposits haven’t grown much in the past two years; everyone’s wondering where the money went. One answer is real yields, with government bond RWA absorbing some. NEXST wants to prove that beyond government bonds, consumption and IP can also be financed on-chain. The direction is right; the challenge is pricing. This isn’t a competitor to BTC; no matter how lively entertainment RWA gets, it won’t divert mainstream coin liquidity. But it shows on-chain finance is still hunting for new stories everywhere. The government bond wave has gotten aesthetically tired, so it needs repackaging to keep going. Growth depends on these constantly emerging new narratives.
Don’t get carried away with trading swings. Projects like this might hype token issuance to stir sentiment, but it’s not BTC—there’s no 200-week moving average to anchor you, nor ETFs buying with real money daily. If you want to participate, ask three questions first: Are the underlying assets truly on-chain? Are the revenue rights written into smart contracts? Or is it just a token issued to ride the hype?
What about you? If you could really buy on-chain revenue rights of a certain idol, would you play for fun with a small position, or not believe anyone would actually take it up?An exchange that was robbed of 1.5 billion sues a country
In the early hours of August 8, Bybit filed a civil complaint in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The defendants listed include three names: the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, its Reconnaissance General Bureau, and the Lazarus Group. Following these are a long list of John Does, unidentified individuals and entities.
The cause is that 1.5 billion from last year. The largest single theft in industry history, the money's path has been repeatedly analyzed by on-chain analysts, involving cross-chain transfers, splitting, coin mixing, and finally disappearing into a cluster of addresses.
What’s truly worth watching this time is not the lawsuit itself, but that Bybit simultaneously obtained a preliminary injunction. The federal judge ordered that during the case trial, the defendants are prohibited from transferring or selling some of the stolen assets they hold.
You might think, what use is this? Would a sovereign nation heed a subpoena from a U.S. court? How can you freeze a bunch of addresses without real names?
But from another perspective, the real target of this paper might not be North Korea at all. For that on-chain money to become spendable, it must pass through people: exchanges, OTC desks, custodians, fiat gateways. There are always parts under U.S. jurisdiction in these links. Previously, analysts could just tweet that an address is dirty, and the recipient could pretend not to see it; now with court documents in hand, the nature of the same incoming funds changes completely. The cost of knowingly receiving dirty money is raised.
Bybit also specifically stated that this civil lawsuit is independent of the criminal investigation being conducted by law enforcement, and will seek further relief from the court later. This is not just a formality. Criminal cases must follow the prosecutor’s pace, but civil cases can proceed on their own with a lower burden of proof. The victims don’t want to just wait anymore. As for how to overcome sovereign immunity, currently there is no public information.
Interestingly, the timing. In the same week, Coldcard still hasn’t filled a hole of over a thousand BTC, and the hacker moved thirty more coins into a new wallet a few days ago. Earlier, security researchers infiltrated North Korean hackers’ systems for 22 months and uncovered compromises in 57 countries and over 1,600 companies. Our industry’s past efforts to recover stolen assets have always relied on on-chain detective work and voluntary cooperation from exchanges, all based on moral appeals.
Now, someone has taken it to court for the first time.
The market has no usual reaction, BTC is still hovering around 65,000, volatility remains at multi-year lows. But the weight of this news was never about price.
So the question is, can a single injunction recover even a penny? Or is the very purpose to make dirty money find no foothold in the compliant world?Retail investors are still selling at a loss while BlackRock quietly moved 7,000 BTC
Last night, someone watching the blockchain saw that BlackRock’s familiar address moved 1,840 BTC from Coinbase Prime again, which at the current price is about $119 million. This is not an isolated case; looking at the records for this week, IBIT has accumulated a total of 7,320 BTC, equivalent to $478.5 million.
The interesting part is that the price basically hasn’t moved this week. Bitcoin has been oscillating between $64,000 and $65,000, which looks boring to anyone watching. When the non-farm payroll data came out, it spiked briefly but then fell back to the same level. Glassnode reports that the implied volatility to the upside has been hit to a historic low, about 23%, the cheapest since August 2023. In plain terms, no one is willing to pay to bet on a price increase.
What are retail investors doing during the same period? Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 80 consecutive days, the longest on record. This indicator is straightforward: a negative value means the buying demand in the U.S. is weaker than the global market. CryptoQuant’s data is even more painful: the spending output profit ratio of long-term holders has dropped to 0.92, meaning this group is currently selling at an average loss of 8% per transaction. The ratio of demand to new issuance has also been negative for five consecutive months.
On one side, no one is betting and old players are accepting losses and exiting; on the other side, ETF addresses have moved nearly $500 million worth of chips in a week. Morgan Stanley is also slowly increasing its position; MSBT spent $7.21 million to add 100 BTC, with total holdings surpassing 6,300 BTC for the first time.
We used to say the blockchain is transparent, and who buys or sells is clear at a glance. But at times like this, you realize transparency only applies to transfer records, not intentions. You can see BlackRock moving coins but don’t know if it’s preparing for client subscriptions or if it thinks this price is appropriate. You can also see old addresses dormant for ten years quietly moving 50 BTC, but you don’t know if it’s just changing custody or preparing for an over-the-counter exit.
So the market is quite divided now. The price is stagnant, volatility is flat on the floor, sentiment is so cold no one talks about the market, but chips are genuinely changing hands. Old money is moving out, and new custody channels are moving in.
So here’s the question: in this silent transfer, whose direction will ultimately prove to be correct?Nonfarm payrolls were so bad, yet the US stock market rose? Don't rush to call a bull market back
I just reviewed today's market, and honestly, my mind is a bit tangled.
The moment the nonfarm data came out, it was -23,000, while the expectation was +83,000. This is not just "below expectations," this is a direct crash. Logically, with employment collapsing like this, the market should panic. But look at the market—it went up.
The reason is simple: the data is so bad that the Fed dares not move, and some have even started fantasizing about rate cuts.
But this is what makes me feel something is off—the market did rise, but it rose too steadily. Like a deliberately controlled steady pace, with no panic from shorts getting crushed. It feels more like someone is heavily supporting it, not letting it fall, but also not wanting to push it up too fast for now.
This reminds me of the saying I often mention: don’t expect a strong reversal after a strong breakout, but also don’t expect the same strength to continue for a while.
Right now, the S&P is hovering in a tiny range between 770-772, and QQQ between 720-725. I’ve marked these two ranges as my "warning lines." If it doesn’t break below the lower boundary, I consider it a strong consolidation; if one day a solid bullish candle breaks above the upper boundary, don’t hesitate—ride the rally. Conversely, if it softly leaks down, just wait patiently and don’t try to catch a falling knife.
Sector-wise, I’ve recently been focusing only on the semiconductor line.
NVDA, MU, MRVL, LITE, COHR, ASML, ARM—these I put in a watchlist. Not randomly chosen; their charts are all signaling: accumulation. Especially the two optical module stocks, LITE and COHR, moving like bulldozers, rising a little every day—this kind of steady rise is actually more reassuring than big bullish candles.
But here’s a cold splash of water.
Since I judge this as a "low volatility rise," implied volatility is very likely to go down. What does that mean? Don’t just blindly buy Calls when you see the stock price rising, especially out-of-the-money ones—the time value will melt away like an ice pop. Lately, I prefer selling PUTs or doing spreads, at least so I can sleep well.
Something practical and useful for you:
If you’re watching these stocks too, don’t rush to go all in. First, see if the S&P reacts around 770; if it does, try a small position (no more than 5%) in MU or NVDA as a base holding, with a stop loss set just below today’s candle low.
Investing can’t be rushed.
Anyway, I treat 770-772 as my ruler—if it passes, I act; if it breaks, I rest. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Macro Market Commentary
ADP added 44,000 jobs, hitting a new low for the year, with weakening employment theory suppressing rate hikes. Gold surged above 4300 before retreating to 4250; whether it can hold depends on tonight's nonfarm payrolls.
However, initial jobless claims for the same period were 199,000, below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, the lowest since September 2022. The two data sets contradict each other: ADP shows weakening employment, while initial claims reflect employment resilience. Institutions warn that ADP is easily influenced by small and medium enterprise samples; the current situation is low hiring and low layoffs, with companies not conducting large-scale layoffs but being cautious about hiring.
Federal Reserve officials are divided, with both hawkish and dovish voices present; the probability of a rate hike in September is close to 50/50. $SNDK SanDisk's earnings exploded, with revenue up 372% year-over-year and a gross margin of 84.6%, plus a 14 billion buyback plan. Despite this, the stock still fell 7% after hours, as the market worries about the future interest rate environment, ignoring past performance.
Gold's logic is clear: weakening ADP → rising expectations of rate cuts, trading rate expectations. In contrast, BTC remains flat at 64,000 despite gold's surge. ETFs have inflows, but Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, with institutions selling and Asia buying.
Fed policy is swinging, with bullish and bearish expectations tugging; BTC is stuck in the middle, oscillating. Gold trades on rate expectations, while BTC awaits its own catalyst; the macro direction is unclear, and funds are cautious.
$XAU $BTC $SNDK
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice From losing 5300U to live streaming 7 trades and losing another 250U: How much longer will Dahuangzi's path to recovery take?
After reviewing all 7 real trades from Dahuangzi's August 7 live stream, I've done the math for everyone. On the surface, there are wins and losses, but when all data is combined, the harsh truth emerges:
📊 1. Full data summary of the 7 trades from the 8.7 live stream
Performance: 7 trades, 2 wins, 5 losses (win rate only 28.5%)
Profit: +43.18 USDT (small quick take profit)
Loss: -294.49 USDT (multiple times holding losing positions / heavy stop losses)
Summary: Net loss for the day -251.31 USDT
💥 2. Why most followers likely lost money last night?
1. “Light positions when winning, heavy positions when losing”
The profitable SNDK trade closed with only 3,167 U (earned +43 U); but the subsequent long position increased to 5,164 U (single loss of -101.33 U), the heavy position wiped out the previous profit completely.
2. Consecutive trades in the same direction, concentrated blowout
BICO short trades: 2 consecutive short positions opened, ultimately stopped out at a high of 0.0499, total loss -175 U.
SNDK long trades: consecutively added long positions at 1227, 1220, 1217, but all three were stopped out simultaneously at 1204!
3. Ultra-short-term slippage trap
The profitable trade was held only 3 minutes (quickly gained 6.8% on long SNDK). The lead trader could catch the entry points, but followers often buy high and sell low due to delay, resulting in the awkward situation of "he profits, you lose."
⚠️ 3. Summary and advice for followers
After the heavy 5300 U hit from the previous BEAT trade, Dahuangzi clearly wants to recover capital through quick short-term trades. But last night's performance shows uneven position sizing and inverted profit-loss ratio remain major issues.
👉 Advice for followers: Do not blindly follow with full positions. Be sure to enable OKX's maximum follow stop-loss protection and keep risk control in your own hands!
💬 Interaction area:
How did brothers who followed the live stream trades last night fare? Did you encounter slippage? Leave your follow experience in the comments!👇
(Note: This article only provides public real trade data and trading logic analysis, and does not constitute any investment advice.)
@大皇子小号 @大皇子
#ContractReview #PathToRecovery 1. Nonfarm payrolls turn negative: US jobs reduced by 23,000 in July, rate hike expectations for September cooled significantly Last night, US nonfarm payrolls in July fell by 23,000, while the market had previously expected an increase of about 80,000; meanwhile, data for May and June was revised downward. The unemployment rate actually fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, but one of the main reasons was the labor force participation rate dropping to 61.4%, a low of about five and a half years, so it cannot be simply interpreted as an improvement in the job market. Opportunities and Trends: Employment is significantly weaker than expected, directly undermining the need for the Fed to continue raising rates. The market's probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from about 67% a week ago to around 44%; The simultaneous decline in 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is positive for AI growth stocks, gold, and BTC in terms of liquidity. Risks and warnings: This is not purely "Goldilocks" data. If CPI remains high and oil prices rebound, a stagflation combination may form, with weak employment but persistent inflation. What will truly determine the Fed's next step will be whether the CPI can continue to cool on August 12. Key data changes: * Nonfarm: -23,000 vs expected +80,000 * Unemployment rate: 4.1% * Labor force participation rate: 61.4% * 10-year US Treasuries: about 4.65% * 2-year US Treasuries: about 4.25% * US Dollar Index: down about 0.44% to 99.50 * Probability of a rate hike in September: down to about 44%. ⸻ 2. US stocks: Weak nonfarm payrolls actually turned positive, Nasdaq +1.3% for the day,The threshold for off-exchange trading of US dollar assets has been lowered again, establishing a seamless clearing channel between crypto stablecoins and US stock targets for cross-border funds.
UK investors have started directly using USDC or GBP to trade nearly 4,000 US stocks and ETFs, enabling fractional share trading five days a week, 24 hours a day.
Amid the Federal Reserve's fluctuating interest rate expectations, the clearing time lag of traditional fiat currency exchanges is bypassed, with stablecoins accelerating cross-market capital flows as real-time collateral.
The implementation of direct stablecoin clearing ties offshore crypto liquidity to off-exchange volatility in US stocks.
If US dollar liquidity remains loose and off-exchange trading depth is maintained, US stock volatility will transmit more rapidly to the stablecoin supply side; if US stocks experience sharp gaps during unconventional hours and clearing custodians run out of liquidity, this arbitrage chain will be interrupted.
During phases when the Federal Reserve shifts to a hawkish policy or the US dollar index strengthens, cross-border funds may choose to retreat to fiat for risk aversion, leading to a reduction in off-exchange fractional share trading volume; if stablecoin borrowing costs are significantly lower than US stock yields, the outflow trend will be curbed.
If the actual bid-ask spread of US stocks in overnight trading continues to widen, it indicates that this seamless clearing has not truly brought efficient price discovery, and the current cross-market premium expectations will be disproved.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is the abnormal fluctuation in USDC clearing volume during non-US stock regular trading hours.
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 #西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 $SPCX closed at $133 yesterday, rising nearly 16% in one day.
Many people's first reaction: Did Musk pull another stunt? Did the rocket launch again?
I don't think so.
The real game-changer is this sentence:
The market finally started to see SpaceX not as "burning money recklessly" but as "a wall of compute orders."
Replaying the last three days makes it clear.
On the day the earnings report came out, the stock price was first pressed down to around $108.
It wasn't because of poor revenue — quarterly revenue was about $7.8 billion, quite strong.
What scared people was the capital expenditure; just AI infrastructure alone cost about $15.8 billion, even more than the entire quarterly revenue.
The mood in the group chat changed instantly: Is this company treating its IPO like an ATM?
Then came the lock-up expiration day.
About 900 million shares could be sold, which at market cap equates to throwing out $100 billion worth of supply.
Everyone was waiting for a sell-off. But what happened? The stock actually rose that day, with increased volume.
The supply shock came, and someone absorbed it. That’s stronger than any slogan.
Then came yesterday’s big move.
The rating was upgraded, a $160 price target was thrown out; the CFO’s comment that "compute investment pays back in less than a year" was repeatedly cited.
The debate instantly changed:
No longer arguing about "how much was spent," but about "how long until it pays back."
The numbers have actually been on the table all along.
Q2 new cloud service contracts were about $14.1 billion, nearly twice the quarterly total revenue.
Not long into Q3, another $6.7 billion contract was signed.
AI revenue was about $2.6 billion, more than tripling year-over-year.
Operating is still at a loss, about $1.3 billion; but adjusted profit metrics turned positive for the first time.
What about Starlink? It’s still the honest money-maker.
Revenue about $4.3 billion, operating profit about $1.7 billion.
So the structure is quite twisted:
The balance sheet is supported by Starlink, but the stock price is increasingly tied to whether "cloud contracts convert into revenue."
In plain language:
Trading $SPCX now doesn’t feel like betting on the next launch headline,
but more like betting on whether it can grow from a launch provider into a compute supplier.
No need to mythologize yesterday.
Valuation isn’t cheap. Based on last year’s revenue roughly, market cap is about 60x;
even if you trust management to hit $100 billion annualized revenue by year-end, there’s still about 15x to digest.
Contract value doesn’t equal current revenue. If the big Cursor deal drags, the story’s slope will change.
Lock-up isn’t a one-time event — there are more batches, and volatility will repeat.
So here’s how I see it:
Chasing yesterday’s price gap is betting on a second wave of sentiment, with success depending on whether upcoming unlocks cause more selling.
A cleaner view is to split two things:
The lock-up rebound near $115 is about short-term volatility;
Whether AI operating losses narrow is about mid-term value.
RKLB and ASTS rising alongside is the sector risk appetite returning.
The extra rise in $SPCX is its own narrative repair. Don’t mistake following the sector for understanding it.
Do you think this wave is already over-priced, or is the lock-up panic just beginning?The Ethereum community is in an uproar over a proposal, and this time the opposition is against a "big player" holding nearly 900,000 ETH (worth over $1.7 billion). Core mechanism of EIP-8363: When staked ETH reaches about 50% of the total supply, validators' new token issuance rewards will be gradually burned to zero. This solution, proposed by core researchers like Justin Drake, was originally intended to prevent the staking scale from growing infinitely and reduce dilution for non-stakers. SharpLink CEO Joseph Chalom raised four "soul-searching questions": First, Ethereum's core advantages are being destroyed with their own hands. Chalom pointed out that native yield is one of the key reasons institutions choose ETH over Bitcoin. Currently, Ethereum offers about 2.75% variable staking yield, which is attracting traditional capital to earn returns through products like Grayscale's ETHE. The proposal will gradually burn validator rewards, and when the staking amount reaches 50%, issuance rewards will be zero, at which point validators will have to rely on transaction tips, which currently account for only about 15% of total revenue. Second, the foundation of DeFi is about to be removed. Ethereum staking yields serve as the "risk-free benchmark" for the entire on-chain economy, currently locking in about $35 billion in liquid staking products, which serve as core collateral for DeFi lending. Zeroing returns will push up on-chain capital costs, and some small and medium-sized staking operators will be eliminated. Third, independent validators are the first to be eliminated. Large institutions have scaleJust took a look at the liquidation data; in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $193 million, with shorts accounting for $111 million.
This wave isn't simply caused by people chasing highs to buy out; more so, shorts were pushed up by the market all the way, triggering stop-losses and forced liquidations one after another, ultimately forcing them to buy back to close positions. When shorts and longs are imbalanced and the price pulls, it easily forms a chain of short covering, making the market look particularly fierce.
For ETH, this kind of market is short-term positive.
ETH itself is one of the mainstream coins with the densest contract capital. Concentrated short liquidations indicate that the market's previous expectations were cautious or even bearish. Now that shorts are being continuously liquidated, it at least shows that this part of the selling pressure suppressing the price has been temporarily cleared, making it easier for ETH to have a short-term catch-up rally or acceleration.
But we should also be cautious here.
Liquidation data can show who is hurting more between longs and shorts but cannot directly prove that the trend has completely reversed. After most shorts are cleared, if there is no spot capital to continue the relay, the price may still rise and then fall back. Especially if ETH is just following BTC's rise and the ETH/BTC rate does not strengthen in sync, it looks more like a market-wide risk appetite recovery rather than an independent ETH rally.
Next, I will focus on these three things:
Whether ETH can hold the key price range after the rally and not just spike up and fall back to the original position.
Whether the ETH/BTC rate continues to strengthen, which better indicates capital preference shifting toward Ethereum.
Whether the funding rate heats up quickly; if longs start chasing with high leverage again, a short-term shakeout should be guarded against $ETH $BTC "Speak only when you have something to say; don't force words when you don't."
Through market contrast observation, insiders naturally understand!
A horizontal comparison of the current major categories reveals the gap: On the US stock side, narratives keep emerging one after another—AI computing power, SpaceX $SPCX space industry, optical communication hardware successively show market moves, with continuous large capital inflows; gold is firmly supported by the de-dollarization wave and geopolitical safe-haven logic, with very solid fundamentals. In contrast, in the crypto sector, upon careful reflection, there is almost no new narrative at this stage that can mobilize market sentiment and catch people's attention.
The bullish dividends of $BTC spot and $ETH have been completely digested; the market has fully priced in the imagination space of Layer 2 network expansion; various MEME coins rotate back and forth, essentially just internal redistribution of existing funds, unable to attract fresh external capital.
The crypto market is not without upside potential, but currently lacks a top-level main narrative that can leverage incremental capital inflows. BTC has been maintaining a long-term sideways consolidation, essentially waiting for a new major narrative to land and catalyze.
Rather than spending energy guessing daily price points, it's better to calmly focus on who in the sector can first run through a complete narrative logic. Let's talk—what do you think will be the core narrative that can carry the next crypto market rally? #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Bitcoin Consolidates in the 64500-65200 Range: The Battle Between Whales Accumulating Against the Trend and Seasonal Weakness — In-Depth Analysis on August 8, 2026
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating narrowly between $64,500 and $65,200, with the hourly MA30 and MA60 maintaining a bullish golden cross, indicating a short-term bullish structure. However, August is historically Bitcoin's worst-performing seasonal month (median decline of -7.87%), compounded by macro pressures such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance maintaining rates, and an 83% plunge in ETF inflows. The market faces a critical directional choice. On-chain data shows whales continue to accumulate against the trend (increasing holdings by 66,700 BTC over 60 days), while Hyperliquid large holders' net long positions hit a 2026 high, creating a subtle divergence with the slowing accumulation of long-term holders. This article combines the latest technical analysis, on-chain data, and macro environment to provide investors with actionable strategy references.
1. Market Analysis: The Bull-Bear Battle Behind Narrow Consolidation
In the early hours, Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly between $64,500 and $65,200, repeatedly testing the $64,500 support line with effective bids, and lows showing a gradual upward trend. The current price has rebounded near the $64,900 midpoint, with bearish selling pressure significantly weakening and strong reluctance to sell, as bulls are gathering momentum.
From the hourly technical structure, MA30 ($64,700) and MA60 ($64,450) maintain a golden cross with prices firmly above short-term moving averages, signaling a bullish bias. Notably, market liquidity is usually low on Saturdays, but strong bids at the lows indicate robust buying interest. If volume supports a breakout above the $65,200 upper range, it could easily trigger short-seller stop losses, causing a short-term impulsive rally targeting $65,500-$65,700 initially, and potentially extending to the $66,000 level.
However, investors should be cautious of a conflicting signal: despite the short-term bullish moving averages, the three-day chart shows Bitcoin has been forming a "head and shoulders" pattern since early March. Since June 30, although prices have rebounded, buying volume has continued to shrink — this low volume behind the right shoulder rise is a classic "exhaustion" signal, confirming an approximate 25% potential downside risk for this pattern.
2. On-Chain Data: Growing Divergence Between Whales and Long-Term Holders
On-chain data reveals a complex and subtle pattern. On one hand, whales are increasing positions against the trend. Glassnode data shows the number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC rose from 1,263 to about 1,267 within three days as of July 23. More notably, CryptoQuant data indicates whales have accumulated 66,700 BTC over 60 days, valued at approximately $4.3 billion at the time, marking the largest whale buying wave since February 2026.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin large holders on Hyperliquid have net long positions at the highest level in 2026. Glassnode data shows large holders turned bullish since March this year and have been steadily increasing positions, with BTC single contract open interest around $22.5 billion (about 34,845 BTC), and funding rates near zero. Near-zero funding rates imply very low holding costs for longs, making these positions more sustainable than during high funding periods.
On the other hand, long-term holders (Hodlers) are signaling caution. The "Hodler Net Position Change" indicator, measuring long-term wallet accumulation trends, dropped from 29,838 BTC on July 11 to 15,766 BTC on July 26, a 47% decline in just two weeks. Although long-term holders continue to accumulate slowly, the pace has clearly cooled, indicating some steadfast holders are becoming cautious, preparing for a potential market pullback.
This divergence—whales accelerating accumulation while long-term holders slow down—suggests the market is at a critical juncture of rebalancing bullish and bearish forces.
3. Macro Environment: Dual Pressure from Fed Hawkishness and Seasonal Weakness
At the end of July, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike, pushing the futures market's probability of a September rate increase to 72%. The Fed Chair explicitly stated there is no soft inflation target, and any inflation above 2% is unacceptable. This hawkish stance raises the cost of leveraged crypto positions and tightens liquidity pressure.
Regarding capital flows, Bitcoin spot ETF weekly net inflows dropped sharply from a high of $197 million on July 10 to $75.67 million on July 17, then further down to $33.79 million on July 24. This represents a 55% drop in one week and an 83% decline from the July peak. Institutional investors have not significantly sold off but are gradually cooling their capital demand.
More concerning for bulls is the seasonal factor. Based on 15 years of data, August's median Bitcoin return is -7.87%, the worst monthly record of the year, with an average return of only -0.64%. Since 2022, August monthly candles have typically closed bearish: down 14% in 2022, down 8.73% in 2024, and down 6.43% in 2025. July 2026 closed up 9.16% (or 11.5%, depending on data source), closely matching the historical "up in July, down in August" pattern.
Key Levels and Trading Strategies
Combining technical patterns, on-chain data, and macro environment, the market is currently at a critical window for directional choice.
Key resistance levels above: $65,200 (upper range/short-term concentrated short stop-loss zone), $65,700 (near previous highs), $66,000 (psychological level), $66,885 (three-day head and shoulders neckline/key reversal point), $68,468 (200-week moving average). If the three-day close can hold above $66,885, bulls may regain momentum, targeting $76,118, with potential to challenge $100,000.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH $BICO DOGE Narrative Analysis
$DOGE has always touted its payment attributes, but the on-chain payment market has long been dominated by stablecoins like USDT and USDC. This narrative seems to have been undermined, but in reality, it is not as the public understands it.
In real scenarios, stablecoins are used for cross-border transfers, OTC deposits and withdrawals, and inflation resistance in some regions. The core advantage of stablecoins is price stability, whereas DOGE experiences daily fluctuations of 3-5%. Merchants must immediately convert DOGE upon receipt; otherwise, profits are directly eroded by volatility. This is a fundamental flaw that faith alone cannot compensate for.
However, this is precisely where most people misunderstand: stablecoins have secured the payment function, but DOGE has never relied on functionality to win. What it wins is the payment story. USDT is just a cold tool without emotional support; DOGE is a cultural symbol with a price tag. Holders rarely use it for actual consumption; holding it is more about identity and emotional attachment. The loud claim of payment is essentially a bet on future price appreciation.
Stablecoins have not destroyed the DOGE narrative; instead, they have helped it shed the burden of being a practical currency. Since the payment track is unfeasible, DOGE has completely transformed into an emotional asset and a sentiment indicator for retail investors. In this market cycle, with BTC sideways and the fear and greed index at 29, DOGE is trading in a narrow range. Its price movements have nothing to do with payment adoption but are more influenced by tweet popularity, US stock risk appetite, and market liquidity.
#DOGE#crypto🚨✨ PI NETWORK NEWS 💥 AUGUST 8, 2026
A quick update on the market situation and $PI Network’s system so everyone can stay up to date.
* 💰 Current price: ~$0.089
* 📊 Market capitalization: ~$980M
Pi Network is standing at an extremely clear dividing line: technical infrastructure must accelerate, while market capital is demanding real-world value.
Technical development does not tolerate delays: The Protocol v26.1 upgrade deadline of August 11, 2026 is a serious test to filter and strengthen the node system.
This is a mandatory stepping stone that must be solid if $PI wants to move toward further versions, but it also creates significant pressure on the operating community.
The market is becoming more sober toward empty narratives: The fact that the price continues to move sideways around the bottom shows that large capital out there is flowing toward Bitcoin and assets with clearer regulatory frameworks.
The Pioneer community cannot keep relying on emotional patience forever; the project is forced to transform from "potential on paper" into "real-world utility that generates cash flow."
Against the backdrop of a crypto market that is tightening its standards and undergoing aggressive filtering, closely following technical upgrade milestones is a necessary condition, but the ability to commercialize the ecosystem is the sufficient condition for shaping its true position.
Playing crypto at this stage means staying alert and looking straight at the nature of the problem. There is no room for unrealistic dreams here! Should we short Changxin cxmt now or not? Our data speaks: let's study Changxin's trading volume, funding rate, and unlocking schedule 🧐
⚠️ You can directly check the conclusion at the end
1. Trading Volume:
The larger the trading volume, the more stable it is and the less likely to be liquidated.
I found that the largest trading volume is still on TradeXYZ, 17.7 million in 24h; the second is Gate with 9.2 million; others are almost negligible.
2. Funding Rate:
One day’s funding rate doesn’t show much; over 30 days, net loss is 20% 😂
Looking at the data, Gate is the best; shorting still earns; TradeXYZ loses 17.3% over 30 days; bybit is a bit better, losing only 2.85% over 30 days.
3. Unlocking Schedule: 【Important‼️】
The biggest issue is when the unlocking happens. If it doesn’t unlock, there won’t be selling pressure, so it’s purely a loss.
Currently, the fastest unlocking is 6 months later, on January 27, 2027, at 2.27%, roughly 80 billion selling pressure now.
The problem is that the A-share market’s margin securities lending business was suspended by the CSRC in 2024, meaning shorting Changxin in A-shares is currently impossible 😂
Current circulating market cap is about 236 billion, not too high.
The first real large-scale old stock unlock: July 27, 2027 (just have to wait for unlocking).
4. Conclusion
1️⃣ So now it feels better to go long on Hyper and earn its funding fee; you can get about 15% in 30 days 😂
2️⃣ Around December at the end of the year, you can short.
⚠️ The key inside is whether the funding rate turns positive; if it does, then shorting needs to be considered.
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#BIT US stocks 7-year asset management platform with $7 billion AUM, cheapest US stock platform fees, newly launched margin financing and securities lending function
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？Here's a painful observation that those in the know will understand.
This round of the US stock market has AI, SpaceX, and a wave of new narratives like optical communication pouring in money one after another. Gold benefits from de-dollarization and safe-haven demand, but crypto—count for yourself—what truly exciting new stories have there been recently? The ETF benefits have been fully realized, Layer 2's imagination has peaked, and meme coin rotations are just a zero-sum game.
Crypto isn't incapable of rising; it just temporarily lacks a big narrative that can attract incremental off-exchange capital. $BTC is stuck here essentially waiting for the next story. Instead of guessing the price, better to watch who can be the first to tell the new narrative well. What do you think the next big crypto narrative will be? #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ The point I'm interested in isn't just the price. It's the supply.
1. "300 million $PI withdrawn from the exchange" does not mean 300 million PI disappeared from the market This is where the community is very easy to misunderstand. If users withdraw PI from the CEX to their personal wallets, it reduces the supply available for sale on the exchange, but it does not mean that the PI disappears. Conversely, if a large amount of PI from: Mobile mining → KYC → Mainnet → Wallet → CEX, the supply that is likely to sell increases. Pi Network officially confirms that PI is not KYC/not miAfter two consecutive waves of non-farm payroll data, gold quietly emerged from a bull market, while Bitcoin remained stuck in place, showing little movement. Coinbase's premium remained negative, basically indicating that US institutions were dumping shares. Although Asian buyers were buying, the two sides were pulling at each other, trapping prices in the middle.
ETFs do nominally bring in funds, but on closer inspection, most are arbitrage funds running strategies rather than genuinely going long, so the impact on coin prices is very limited. Moreover, internal disagreements within the Fed over the future interest rate path are significant, with hawkish and dovish biases balancing each other, offsetting both positive and negative factors, leaving the market unable to find a breakout direction.
Currently, the 65,000–65,500 resistance zone is a critical resistance zone. Only by truly holding above 65,000 can there be hope for further upward movement. This level is worth keeping a close eye on. Support below is roughly in the 63,800–63,200 range. As long as it doesn't break below this level, it won't be easy for bears to push further downward.
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation? $BTC $ETH $BICO 地缘政治缓和的“预期交易”，正在推动资金重新涌入风险资产。 据币界网消息，7月30日至8月5日当周，高收益零售基金迎来了约2.76亿美元的资金流入，其中2.37亿美元主要来自快速资金ETF的涌入。这一流入完全抵消了前一周6.92亿美元的资金流出，并创下自4月9-15日以来的最大单周流入——当时同样对应脆弱的和平前景。 随着本周的积极数据，2026年的整体资金流入已达到35.4亿美元，主要得益于59.2亿美元的ETF净流入，抵消了来自共同基金的23.8亿美元流出。 当市场开始定价中东停火的“假设”时，资金会先于协议落地涌入风险资产——过去的流入数据已经验证了这一模式。但风险偏好能否持续，取决于协议能否真正落地，以及油价是否会因供应恢复而进一步回落。 $BTC $ETH $BICO #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 Today, $2 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire.
The most notable part is that the maximum pain price is $64,000.
Usually, as the option expiration date approaches, the spot price tends to converge toward the maximum pain price, a phenomenon known as "price pinning" may occur.
Therefore, if the current Bitcoin price is above $64,000, there may be short-term downward pressure on the price before today's expiration, which should be taken into consideration.
However, the put/call ratio for this option is only 0.26, with call options overwhelmingly dominant. This means market participants' bets are clearly biased toward the bullish side.
In summary, today can be seen as a day where "the medium-term bullish expectation remains strong, but the $64K maximum pain price may be a burden in the short term."Recently, the Coldcard hardware wallet collapsed, nearly $100 million in Bitcoin was stolen, causing widespread panic within the Bitcoin community. Before the matter was fully digested, a volunteer developer team used the Kimi K3 large model for automated code audits, scanning nearly 400 Bitcoin ecosystem projects in 24 hours and uncovering 4,962 security vulnerabilities, including many high-risk and critical defects. The team described the situation as "extremely dire." Many people have the impression that the Bitcoin mainnet code has been refined for over a decade and is unlikely to have major issues. Most of the risks come from peripheral derivatives: hardware wallets, layer-2 protocols, and various auxiliary libraries. The Coldcard vulnerability that collapsed this time actually lay dormant for a full five years before being exposed. After more than 5,000 vulnerabilities were exposed, people realized that many Bitcoin-related projects have far more fragile security bases than imagined. AI is now a completely double-edged sword. Defenders can use large models to complete audit workload that would take weeks of human labor in a single day, batch uncovering hidden bugs. But hackers use the same set of tools. Once a vulnerability is exposed, anyone can scan it, and attackers can quickly analyze vulnerabilities and write attack scripts with AI. The window left for project teams to repair and for ordinary users to transfer assets has been severely compressed. Now, some within the industry are suspecting that the hackers were involved in the Coldcard theft incident, with large AI models playing a supporting role. The scene on the chain after the theft is also very realistic. The hacker address also holds tens of millions of dollars in illicit funds, and on-chain OP-Tonight's market was almost unbelievably quiet. Did you know that this calm before the storm is often more unsettling than the crash itself? With the release of nonfarm payroll data tonight, insiders are speculating in one direction: will Bitcoin take off directly, or will it first take a step and then climb back? I stared at the screen for a long time. At 64,800, the 1-hour RSI has climbed above 80, and in 15 minutes it surged to 86. The price is following the Bollinger Bands on the upper track. This pattern, to put it bluntly, means short-term buying has already been over-invested. Whoever rushes in at this position is just helping others carry the sedan chair. The market expects 83,000 new nonfarm payrolls in July, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. But note, some institutions have already started to disagree—Vanguard Group, based on 401(k) pension data, estimates that the actual number may be only 18,000. ADP private sector data was also only 44,000, well below the expected 75,000. If tonight's data is truly disappointing, the dollar will weaken, interest rate expectations will be lowered, and Bitcoin will most likely first test the market and then recover. But Wall Street's warnings cannot be ignored. JPMorgan said that if nonfarms exceed 150,000, the S&P 500 could drop nearly 2%, as strong employment data would confirm expectations that "high interest rates will persist longer." Fed Governor Cook also made a statement this week: inflation will not cool down, and she is always ready to support rate hikes. So you see, market trading is not about "good data."$SPCX Live Trading Review｜Post-Restriction Sell-Off Drops, Surges 16%, Complete Strategy for Buying the Dip and Long Positions
This round of $SPCX saw a single-day surge of 16%, driven by two major expectation reversals resonating to push a recovery rally:
1. Earnings beat expectations, dispelling fundamental concerns
SpaceX's Q2 revenue reached $7.8 billion, year-over-year growth exceeded market expectations, Starlink satellite business cash flow continued to improve, and the company clearly increased investment in AI computing infrastructure. The previously overly pessimistic market valuation logic has been corrected.
2. Large-scale restriction sell-off fully absorbed, stronger-than-expected support
Previously, the market panicked over the unlocking of 900 million shares, but after the event, no stampede selling occurred. Off-exchange funds actively stepped in to absorb shares, resulting in a classic "bad news is good news" pattern, with short-selling momentum directly exhausted.
Complete review of this long position operation
Entry strategy: On the evening of the 7th, bought the dip near 116.97 to establish long positions
At that time, the market had already stopped falling and stabilized, with solid buying support around 116. Coupled with earnings positive news priced in early and the full release of restriction panic, the trade aimed to capture a recovery rebound.
Partial profit-taking in layers during the rise, laddered position exits:
Reduced positions stepwise at 119.81, 124.97, and 125.11 to lock in profits, finally clearing all base positions at 130.68 when hitting short-term resistance.
No all-in hold at once, nor premature full exit missing the rally. Profits were taken in batches following the upward rhythm, perfectly fitting this round’s oscillating upward recovery trend.
Key price levels analysis
Short-term strong support: 120
This rebound’s core zone— as long as the price does not break down effectively, the short-term bullish structure remains strong, making pullbacks valuable for buying the dip.
Layered resistance zones
1. 130-135: IPO issue price range, this rally just touched this zone, accumulating a large amount of previous trapped positions, with the heaviest short-term selling pressure;
2. 150: Mid-term trapped position dense area, breaking through requires additional catalysts like Starlink commercialization and AI computing orders;
3. Above 180: Historical high range, difficult to break through in one go relying only on short-term news.
Risk reminder for the market, avoid blind chasing
1. Current overall valuation is high, with continuous large investments in AI infrastructure, making short-term profit realization difficult;
2. Further share unlocking is expected, making it easy to see concentrated profit-taking and sharp drops after rallies;
3. This rally is only a recovery rebound driven by unlocking and earnings, not a long-term trend reversal. Without new growth logic, high-level oscillation and shakeouts will become the norm.
Trading summary
Two taboos in trading news-driven stocks: panic selling on bad news and holding full positions stubbornly during rallies.
This SPCX rally proves: after bad news lands, watch for capital absorption, take profits in layers during the rise, which locks in gains and avoids missing swing moves.
Did you get on board this SPCX rebound? Near resistance levels, would you reduce positions or hold on? Share your thoughts in the comments below 👇As soon as the non-farm payroll data was released, the entire market logic reversed directly.
Honestly, the market has been a bit magical recently, and many people are probably confused.
The just-released US non-farm payroll data was a pitfall; employment data fell short of expectations. According to old thinking, a weak economy means the stock market should take a hit, but the opposite happened. US stocks surged sharply, the S&P hit a historic high, and the Nasdaq made a big gain this week. The AI computing power sector led the charge, but the storage chip sector dragged behind. The sector divergence is very serious; this is not a market where you can just blindly buy and make money.
The underlying logic is straightforward: poor employment means the market bets that the Fed won’t dare to keep hiking rates aggressively. Rate hikes cool down, the dollar weakens, US Treasury yields fall, and risk assets instantly breathe a sigh of relief.
Looking at the crypto space, it has slightly warmed up with the broader environment. Bitcoin oscillates around 65,000, and Ethereum has also rebounded slightly, but there hasn’t been a roaring bull market. Large-cap coins are stable, but small-cap coins are uneven. Incremental funds haven’t truly entered in large volumes; most are funds within the market playing back and forth. After surging, prices are easily pushed back down, and chasing highs is easy to get trapped.
Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, occasionally disturbing the global market. When geopolitical news hits, the market can turn on a dime, which cannot be ignored.
Right now, this is a typical "data-driven market." Positive news can trigger a rally, but there’s no sustained momentum. Whether trading stocks or crypto, don’t get carried away by short-term gains and don’t go all in. After positive news lands, a volatile correction can come at any time. Position control is paramount; don’t mistake a short-term rebound for the start of a big bull market. $BTC #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ SanDisk $SNDK key levels to watch today.
Fundamentally, I believe the biggest issue is not a collapse in demand, but that the growth slope is starting to decline.
ASP is still rising, but at a slower pace;
Gross margin is already above 80%, leaving limited room for further expansion.
The market is now trading not just the storage cycle, but betting on whether NBM can transform SanDisk from a cyclical stock into a cash flow asset.
Short term:
Around $1200-1250 is the first support zone; breaking below indicates the market continues to trade on the "cycle peak" logic;
$1350-1400 is a key level for short-term recovery; regaining and holding this level offers a chance to challenge previous highs;
If volume breaks above $1500, market sentiment may return to the "AI storage long-term logic."
My view:
This is not simply about whether the PE is cheap or not.
The biggest risk at a 5.9x PE is the market believing this is the peak profit of the cycle;
The biggest opportunity is the market underestimating the long-term supply and demand changes brought by AI.
Short term watch sentiment, long term watch NBM realization.
The most important thing now is not chasing the rally, but observing whether it can complete turnover at key support levels. $SNDK #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
After the non-farm payrolls surprise, the market may be trading not "recession" but "rate cuts" next.
US non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, and May and June data were collectively revised down by 103,000.
Looking at just one month, it’s not enough to say the US economy is already in recession. But the continuous downward revisions at least indicate one thing: the actual employment market situation is weaker than previously seen.
Next, focus on three points:
① Can rate cut expectations continue to heat up?
After employment cools down, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates will increase. As long as CPI and PCE do not rebound, the market will continue to bet on rate cuts.
② What the US stock market needs is "cooling," not "stalling"
The most comfortable scenario is:
Employment cools → rate cut expectations heat up → US Treasury yields fall → valuations of tech growth stocks get support.
But if consecutive negative employment data appear, the market will no longer trade on rate cuts but on recession, and the US stock market will come under pressure.
③ Gold and BTC benefit more in the medium term
Rising rate cut expectations usually suppress the dollar and real interest rates, while improving liquidity expectations, which is relatively favorable for gold and BTC.
Therefore, the real importance of this non-farm payroll report is not how many jobs were lost, but that the market’s attention is slowly shifting from inflation to employment.
Next, focus on CPI and PCE:
Weak employment + weak inflation = continuation of rate cut trades
Weak employment + high inflation = rising stagflation risk
Rapid employment deterioration = shift to recession trades
What the market most wants to confirm now is whether the Federal Reserve has reason to turn dovish faster.
In summary: employment can cool down, but it cannot stall.#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
The market has truly gone crazy.
Now, speculating on AI storage is no longer about "good performance means stock price rises," but rather:
You have to be outrageously good for the stock price to not fall.
When Western Digital's earnings came out, the performance was explosive, yet the stock price plunged as much as 19%.
SanDisk, Kioxia, and SK Hynix also collectively took a nosedive, dropping over 10%.
The most absurd part is that revenue surged 372%, profits doubled, and the market was still not satisfied.
Why?
Because these funds have been spoiled by the AI market.
It used to be:
"Performance beats expectations, buy!"
Now it's:
"Beats expectations? Not enough, beat it a bit more."
If guidance doesn't shatter the ceiling, it falls.
If gross margin shows signs of peaking, it falls.
If future growth doesn't continue to accelerate, it still falls.
In short, the market is no longer trading on actual performance but on expectations of expectations.
When everyone believes AI storage can keep soaring, any signal that is "not so perfect" can become a reason to dump the stock.
So I actually think the most worrisome thing about this earnings season is not the performance, but:
When the market starts rejecting even "good news," it means the bubble has entered its craziest phase.
Remember one thing:
It's not that the company is bad, the market has gone crazy.
And when it gets that crazy, often it's not about who has the best performance who wins, but who runs first and survives.The most expensive move on the chessboard is not capturing the queen, but the moment the king's wing castle opens—Elon Musk has just made this move in Texas.
"Terafab" is not a simple knight jump, but a well-considered central pawn advance. An initial investment of $16.8 billion is like sacrificing a pawn at the start to gain permanent depth along the fourth rank. Tesla and Space Exploration Technologies share the vehicle formation, treating chip production capacity as their "king's front line," to support the three bishops of autonomous driving, robotics, and space data centers. The tax agreement is clear and in black and white: by 2030, SpaceX will invest at least $5 billion and create over 1,800 full-time jobs before 2035—like the opponent setting an invisible clock for you. But the total expenditure, construction pace, and each company's share are all absent from the public game record. In other words, you see the opponent's king position but can't calculate how many pieces remain.
Musk was originally an excellent "exchanger": buying computing power was like exchanging many pieces quickly and cleanly. Now shifting to self-made chips means he is no longer satisfied with simplifying the position. This is like lifting both rooks to open files, preparing to break directly into the enemy's camp. The advantage is that every self-made chip is your own pawn; pushing it to the enemy's back rank allows promotion, never again dependent on suppliers' moods; the downside is that the factory's cash flow and valuation pressure will tick like a clock—one slow step, and every step slows. For TSLA and SPCX, this is a double penetration: either the heavy piece lines flow smoothly, or your own rear position is put in check.
Meanwhile, in another corner of the board, $XLITE seems like a strange light piece drawn in by a flank castling. The market links Musk's manufacturing bet with it over a long distance, as if both wings suddenly expose each other. But no one can calculate the true depth of this move.
A true grandmaster never plays one move at a time but calculates the endgame twenty moves ahead before placing a piece. Yet in this game, the opponent's bottom cards are deeply concealed, and even the investment shares have not been revealed. The middle game is far from settled, and this uncertainty makes every strategy a gamble.
A queen sacrifice, if miscalculated, means checkmate. #teslaspacexterafab 🕐 Current time: August 8, 07:31 Data real-time pull. Guys, don't rush to criticize me just yet. I know BICO is hot right now: it rose 347% in 7 days, and today it dropped another 31%. The whole screen is shouting "Next hundredfold!" But look at today's daily chart: high 0.0592, close 0.0534, Shanghai shadow is 27 times the real body. To put it plainly—someone raised it to 0.0592 and ran away, with a large group stuck at the top of 0.055-0.059. This isn't shakeout; it's a classic way to sell off. I'm not stopping you from getting rich, I'll just settle accounts for you: 1️⃣ Deviation rate 1.56 times MA20. The price has jumped from 0.011 to 0.059, 56% away from the 20-day moving average. This divergence in the history of Yaobian is a signal for a backlash, not a sign to get on board. 2️⃣ Contract long-short account ratio is 0.32—short accounts are three times longer than long ones, and the funding rate has been negative for 8 consecutive periods (currently -0.22% per 8h). Translation: Retail investors are frantically short selling, prices are still rising—this is a short squeeze. The end of a squeeze is when the bulls have eaten their fill and dump the market, while the bears break out and flee. 3️⃣ Open interest OI increased from 3.4 million contracts to 260 million contracts, an eightfold increase. With so many new positions piled up on the mountaintop, once the situation reverses, stop-loss orders trample each other, causing a waterfall with no bottom. My view: bearish, but don't rush. In a short squeeze market, going against the trend to the top = giving up the kill. ✅ Plan (contract 3x, position 15-18%) Plan A: Short if it falls below 0.0507 | Stop loss at 0.0526 | Take profit at 0.0450/0.The non-farm payroll data came out tonight, and the answer has been revealed.
- The -23,000 actual is expected to be an increase of 80,000, a full difference of 100,000 people, and the previous value was still a positive 57,000. This month it directly turned negative. But at the same time, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Wage growth was only 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%.
Employment is contracting, unemployment rate is falling, and wages are slowing. Non-farm payrolls are "worse," but wages are "even worse." The market is pricing in "more certainty of rate cuts"; gold and Bitcoin are biased bullish, SPCX is relatively strong, SNDK is relatively weak. The key is whether 4370 can hold and SPCX can break through 130.
How to interpret the non-farm payroll data
- Employment contraction: new -23,000 (expected +80,000), the previous two months revised down by a total of 103,000, labor market cooling more than expected
- "False" drop in unemployment rate: dropped to 4.1%, mainly because labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, about 264,000 people exited, not an improvement in employment
- Significant cooling in wages: month-on-month +0.1% (expected +0.3%), year-on-year +3.2% (expected +3.5%), the lowest in more than five years, easing the wage-inflation spiral
- Market implications: employment and wages both weaken, indicating "economic slowdown + easing inflation pressure," rate cut expectations are strengthened.
- Gold (XAU): surged to 4370 after data, then fell back to around 4340; trend is bullish, key is whether 4370 can be effectively broken and held
- Bitcoin (BTC): benefited from risk appetite recovery, returned above $65,000, intraday gain about 1.3%
- SNDK (SanDisk): after data release dropped from 1326 to 1200, mainly because earnings guidance did not meet overly high expectations, not directly driven by non-farm payrolls; Goldman Sachs pointed out market expectations have outpaced reality
- SPCX (SpaceX): surged from 115 to 129, nearly 13% increase, multiple positive factors resonating: $BTC $XAU $SNDK 非农数据的意外“爆冷”，让黄金找到了上涨的燃料。 美国7月非农就业人数意外减少2.3万人，远低于预期的增加8万人。这一数据直接压低了市场对美联储加息的预期，推动现货黄金一度突破4340美元，创下七周新高。 数据背后的逻辑：疲软的非农数据降低了9月加息的紧迫性，美元指数短线走低，黄金作为无息资产的吸引力上升。周五的涨幅使其有望实现自1月以来的最佳周表现。 一个值得注意的矛盾：失业率从4.2%降至4.1%，但劳动参与率降至61.4%，为五年半以来的最低水平。正如分析人士所指出的，失业率下降部分源于劳动力供给的收缩，而非需求的扩张。这种结构性的分歧意味着黄金的逻辑可能并非简单的“降息预期”交易，而包含了对经济不确定性的对冲需求。 $BTC $ETH $BICO #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Currently, $SPCX has surged 16%! Perhaps this is the best opportunity to short SPCX?! #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
SpaceX rebounds about 6% on the first day of lock-up expiration: selling pressure absorbed, or is performance still needed to be fulfilled?
On August 6, SpaceX (SPCX) saw the first batch of restricted shares unlocked since listing, with about 911.5 million shares becoming available for sale. The stock price was under pressure after the earnings report, but it rose about 6% on the day of the unlock, indicating the market absorbed the new supply in the short term.
Earnings highlights: Q2 revenue approximately $7.8 billion (up 90% year-over-year), net loss of $541 million (better than expected); AI-related capital expenditures increased significantly, raising concerns about cash burn. The discussion focus shifted from "mixed earnings and upcoming unlock" to "whether high CapEx can bring growth in AI aerospace infrastructure."
Unlock schedule:
August 6: about 7%
August 21: about 3%
September 10 and September 25: about 3% each
By the end of September, about 20% will be tradable; another 19% will be released in October-November; after December 9, cumulative about 40%.
The real event is in 2027: about 46% of shares related to Musk and founders unlock in June, and about 14% finally in September.
Meaning of the rebound: the first-day rise shows short-term selling pressure was absorbed by the market. The phased unlock plus Musk's shares still locked until 2027 reduces tail risk. However, continuous supply remains, and the AI narrative requires stronger performance fulfillment (profit margin, cash flow, CapEx returns) to support valuation.
Conclusion: The negative impact of the unlock has been well absorbed at the first batch level, but the medium to long term still depends on fundamental verification. Follow-up attention should be paid to the unlock absorption situation and Q3 guidance. @OKX中文 1. Overall Overview: Short-term Strong Rebound within Range-bound Oscillation
As of August 8, Bitcoin has continued the wide-range oscillation pattern since mid-July, with the large-scale monthly range still operating between $58,000 and $67,000. However, on August 8, there was a clear short-term bullish anomaly—BTC broke through the $64,000 mark overnight driven by strong buying, wiping away previous gloom.
2. Short-term Market Performance: Strong Breakout, Clear Short Squeeze
On August 8, BTC traded around $64,000–$64,300, once breaking through the immediate resistance at $64,300 during the session. Along with the price surge, over $600 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with more than 100,000 accounts liquidated. The largest single liquidation happened on Binance’s BTCUSDT pair, valued at $12.1 million—this was a typical short squeeze, forcing shorts to close positions and further pushing the price up.
On the Polymarket prediction market, the probability of "Bitcoin breaking $65,000 in August" surged from 50% to 88% on August 7, reflecting a rapid shift to optimistic market sentiment.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance (from near to far):
Position Price Level Technical Significance
Immediate Resistance $64,300 Key breakout point on the 4-hour chart, partially reached
Short-term Key Level $65,000–$65,150 Critical daily level; holding above opens upward space
Weekly Supply Zone $66,000–$67,000 Upper boundary of August range, difficult to break
Greater Resistance $71,000–$75,000 Area around the 200-day moving average
Support (from near to far):
Position Price Level Technical Significance
First Support $62,500–$63,000 Lower boundary of recent consolidation range
Second Support $62,200 Previous pullback low
Psychological Level $61,000–$61,300 Important support area
Monthly Support $58,000–$58,300 Weekly market structure level
4. Bull and Bear Factors at Play
Bullish Support Factors:
· Short-term technical strength: BTC has broken above $64,000; if daily closes above $65,150, bearish views will be significantly weakened.
· ETF capital inflow: Bitcoin spot ETFs reversed eight consecutive weeks of net outflows, recording a net inflow of $197.4 million in the latest week; July saw a total net inflow of about $381 million, the first positive inflow month since April.
· Options market bullish sentiment warming: Bitcoin implied volatility rebounded from 31% to 36%, accelerating demand for call options.
Bearish Suppression Factors:
· Large-scale downtrend remains: BTC has retraced about 50% from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,200 and is still trading below major moving averages.
· Tight macro environment: 10-year Treasury yield around 4.70%, Fed rate range 3.50%–3.75%, high interest rates limit risk asset upside.
· Miner and network uncertainty: BIP-110 proposal entered a critical signaling phase on August 8–9 but has only about 2% support, unlikely to pass; network difficulty will increase by 1.87%, further squeezing miner profits.
· Seasonal weakness: Historical data shows August is one of Bitcoin’s weakest months—9 out of the past 13 years closed lower, with a median return of about -7.49%.
· Single-day ETF net outflow: On August 8, 10 Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 51 BTC (about $5.557 million), with BlackRock alone net outflowing 91 BTC.
5. Summary
On August 8, Bitcoin was in a short-term bullish counterattack phase within the monthly range-bound oscillation ($58,000–$67,000). The breakout at $64,300 is a key short-term signal, but volume coordination, ETF capital sustainability, and macro catalysts (CPI data, Jackson Hole central bank symposium) remain core variables determining whether the rebound evolves into a trend reversal.
Three scenario probabilities:
· Base case (55%): Range-bound between $58,000 and $67,000, closing the month between $60,000 and $64,000
· Bearish (30%): Break below $57,730 then test $52,750
· Bullish (15%): Break above $67,000 then test $71,000–$74,000 region The rising demand for AI computing power hardware is driving the U.S. stock market, where the high-end PCB capacity represented by $ON is in a tight balance. Under high interest rates, capital views hardware barriers as pricing anchors. The core contradiction lies in whether U.S. Treasury yields and cost pressures will disrupt risk appetite spillover.
In a high interest rate environment, market funds seek certainty across assets, and the AI computing power chain's hardware segment absorbs liquidity through capacity barriers. The strength of the U.S. computing power sector positively transmits to crypto assets, with overall risk asset pricing relying on the certainty premium of the hardware chain.
The core factors driving trading are: first, the constraint of U.S. Treasury yield trends on cross-market liquidity; second, the erosion of gross margins by upstream raw material prices; and third, the efficiency of spillover effects transmitting funds to the crypto market.
The bullish scenario is triggered on the premise that U.S. Treasury yields remain stable or decline, and upstream cost increases stay within a controllable range. At this time, the high premium of the U.S. computing power chain spreads smoothly, technology stock preference transmits to the crypto market, and the overall risk asset upside is unlocked; if U.S. Treasury yields suddenly spike, this upward logic pauses.
The bearish scenario is triggered when upstream raw material prices rise sharply, crushing corporate gross margins and squeezing hardware profit margins. Once this signal triggers, a spike in U.S. Treasury yields will cause rapid capital withdrawal from the U.S. computing power chain and crypto markets, flowing back to the dollar and gold as safe havens; once gold and the dollar strengthen with volume but stagnate in price, the safe-haven retreat scenario ends.
The clear boundary for the failure of this cross-market linkage logic is when capital abandons hardware barrier anchors and fully returns to the dollar and gold. Simultaneous rises in upstream costs and U.S. Treasury yields mark a significant turning point, indicating cross-market liquidity shifts from spillover to contraction.
In the next 7 days, key observations will be upstream raw material price changes and U.S. Treasury yield trends. These are critical indicators for judging whether cross-market funds remain in risk assets or flee to gold and the dollar.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？SNDK SanDisk｜US Stock Storage Market Outlook for Next Week｜Earnings Report Negative Factors Digested + Nonfarm Payrolls Set Direction 🔥
1. Current Core Market Situation
SanDisk SNDK recently experienced a sell-off after positive news was realized: Q4 earnings report was impressive, with both revenue and EPS exceeding expectations, but next quarter's revenue guidance was slightly below market consensus, causing crowded long positions to exit en masse, leading to a continuous high-volume pullback and a clear short-term weakening of sentiment.
The underlying logic remains intact: NAND flash price increase cycle continues, AI data centers have long-term locked orders supporting demand; the short-term conflict is high valuation plus profit-taking, not the end of the storage super cycle.
Current key reference ranges:
✅ Support zone: 1180–1200 (the low point of this pullback, key for bulls to defend)
✅ Resistance zone: 1300–1350 (concentrated trapped positions, first hurdle for rebound)
2. Two Core Variables for Next Week
1️⃣ Nonfarm Employment Data (Most Critical)
Strong employment and stable wages → cooling rate cut expectations, rising US Treasury yields, high-valuation storage stocks continue to face pressure, likely to test support;
Weak employment below expectations → easing expectations rebound, tech growth rebounds, SanDisk likely to see a recovery rally.
2️⃣ Storage Sector Sentiment Linkage
Micron and Western Digital (WDC) trends will directly influence SNDK; watch NAND spot/contract prices and cloud providers' capital expenditure rumors, sector resonance is needed for sustained moves, standalone unilateral moves are less likely.
3. Three Scenario Simulations
🔹 Scenario 1｜Hold 1180 support + dovish nonfarm
Mainly oscillating recovery, rebound first targets 1300 level, only a stable break above offers further upside; this is a short-term buying window.
🔹 Scenario 2｜Range-bound oscillation (most likely)
Nonfarm meets expectations, tug-of-war between bulls and bears, range between 1180–1300 with back-and-forth consolidation, suitable for short-term swing trading, not for heavy one-sided positions.
🔹 Scenario 3｜Break below 1180 support + hawkish nonfarm
Negative factors released again, further downside space opens, do not rush to bottom-fish, wait for volume contraction and stabilization signals.
4. Trading Strategy Reminder
Medium to long term: AI storage long-term contracts are solid, NAND price increase cycle continues, big drops are emotional sell-offs, long-term logic remains;
Short term: currently in earnings negative digestion phase, avoid chasing highs, strictly control position size, prioritize waiting for support stabilization signals before considering entries. Reading a position data overshadowed by the market: As of the week ending 8/4, the CFTC shows a net short of 45,000 contracts in JPY, 58,000 contracts net short in EUR, 58,000 contracts in GBP, and 33,000 contracts in CHF — major non-USD currencies are all net short, which basically means USD longs are very crowded. What does this imply? Once any catalyst for USD weakness appears (weaker nonfarm payrolls, Fed turning dovish), these crowded USD longs will cover, potentially giving risk assets priced in USD like $BTC a breathing room. Don’t just focus on the crypto market’s own order book; imbalances in forex market positions often signal earlier. Which link do you think this USD crowding will break first? Michael Saylor has clearly locked onto the next billion-dollar track—digital credit. The MicroStrategy leader's statement this time is far from just another simple Bitcoin endorsement; it is a fully formed top-level financial architecture. He asserts that digital credit is the definitive value niche at the intersection of traditional finance and the crypto world.
Outsiders often label Saylor as "just a BTC hoarder," but his vision has long reached a higher level. His proposed "modern digital asset stack" is logically clear: Bitcoin is the underlying "digital capital," and on this foundation, a series of structured financial products such as "digital credit," "digital currency," and "digital yield" will inevitably grow.
The so-called "digital credit" essentially leverages Bitcoin's high volatility through sophisticated capital structure design to transform it into a low-volatility, high-yield fixed income instrument. Its core representative is the preferred stock STRC (nicknamed "Stretch") issued by Strategy.
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The data on this thing is indeed impressive: an annualized yield once reached 11.5%, with volatility only about 2%, and a Sharpe ratio close to 4. In traditional financial markets, assets with such risk-return profiles are almost impossible to find. Saylor's goal is also very clear—to capture 5% to 10% of the global $300 trillion credit market.
Of course, this model is not without controversy. In June this year, Strategy launched the "digital credit capital framework," which is essentially a defensive measure against market pressure. At that time, Bitcoin fell below 60,000, the company had an unrealized loss of over $13 billion on its books, and STRC's price dropped more than 28%. To stabilize the fundamentals, they had to announce the possible sale of up to $1.25 billion in BTC to supplement liquidity and pay dividends.
But from another perspective, this precisely proves the resilience of the "digital credit" logic—even in a bear market, this system still has tools to deploy and reserves to cover nearly 17.4 months of fixed expenses.
Saylor himself made it very clear: those who buy STRC are not going to use it as a substitute for Bitcoin. These buyers originally invested in money market funds, bonds, or bank deposits earning 2% interest. They dare not buy BTC directly, but they cannot refuse a "bond-like" product backed by BTC, offering over 10% annualized yield with low volatility.
This is the real incremental logic. It is meaningless to just absorb the existing several hundred billion stablecoins in the crypto market; the true starry sea in Saylor's eyes is to leverage the $999 trillion capital in the traditional financial system. Today, I heard someone speaking on a live stream with a mic connection. Someone asked: What is the reason for SanDisk's big drop today? He actually linked it to the impact of China's ChangXin Memory. He said something about it affecting SanDisk in the next 1-2 years, blah blah blah... Really makes me want to laugh. Isn't this pure misinformation? I told him to just go back to trading A-shares, and he said he already does. Hmm, hmm, hmm. You pay so much attention to ChangXin Memory but don't you know they make DRAM memory, while SanDisk makes NAND, SSDs? These two have almost no competitive relationship, yet you drag it in. Can such absurd logic really be taught on a live stream? There are already many newbies, and if you teach others like this, just scroll through Douyin yourself. It's okay not to understand; we just watch the live stream for fun, don't harm others. If you said it might have been related back on 7.27, maybe, but this time it's completely unrelated, okay?
The fundamental reason is more about the previous excessive rise. The peak has already multiplied four or five times. Once growth expectations loosen even a bit, a large amount of capital will flow out, but the correction was relatively timely. As for the product side, storage expectations continue to decline—from the initial panic-driven surge to now price expectations falling back, the entire storage sector is being affected.
To put it plainly, the industry initially painted a big pie for the market, letting you eat heartily. Now the market finds the pie a bit too much to handle, and wants to go out for a change of taste. But these past two days, you tell me to make a tastier pie to try again (earnings report). I say I want a sweet pie, you make a sweet pie for me, but I still feel it's not sweet enough. That's the situation.US stock AI computing power chain hardware demand continues to heat up, with attention focused on the tight balance of high-end PCB capacity represented by $ON. In a high interest rate environment, capital seeks certainty across markets, and hardware barriers become anchor points for risk asset pricing. If the tech stock spillover effect transmits to the crypto market, a strengthening computing power chain will open an upward channel for overall risk appetite. When raw material price increases significantly squeeze corporate gross margins, rapid capital withdrawal to the US dollar and gold will mark the failure of this round of linkage logic. The next step is to observe changes in upstream costs and US Treasury yields.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？A report jointly released by CoinShares and Token Terminal titled "Hybrid Finance" exposed a neglected divergence: decentralized lending and tokenized real-world asset (RWA) deposits on exchanges tripled from $2.3 billion to $7.4 billion within a year; During the same period, total deposits in DeFi dropped by about 15%. A quiet "blood reshuffle" is happening in the on-chain world—government bonds, gold, and the S&P are rising, while crypto-native protocols are shrinking. 📌 Core Facts The reporting window covers Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, with data provided by Token Terminal and released on August 6, 2026. Tokenized RWA deposits increased from $2.3 billion to $7.4 billion, more than tripling; During the same period, total DeFi deposits fell by about 15%. Historically, in February 2026, tokenized RWAs rose +8.7% to 24.8 billion, while DeFi total value locked (TVL) dropped 25% to 94.8 billion. Trading volume divergence is even steeper: DEX aggregate spot volume is about −70% year-on-year, RWA spot volume is about +220%; Perpetual open interest in RWAs now exceeds 25%, climbing against the trend since the slowdown in October 2025. In terms of on-chain distribution, nearly 70% of RWA deposits are concentrated in Ethereum borrowing#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Legislative timetable postponed to September
The U.S. Senate has officially postponed the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act until after the August recess, specifically when senators return to work in mid-September. Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that due to Democratic concerns about political impact ahead of the upcoming November elections, the vote could not be held before the recess. This delay creates a narrow window for supporters to secure the necessary 60 votes when Congress reconvenes, making September a critical month for regulatory clarity. Investors should note that if the bill fails to make progress upon return, the momentum for federal crypto legislation may stall indefinitely due to the approaching election cycle, leaving the industry in regulatory uncertainty for the foreseeable future Complete interpretation of the US July Nonfarm Payrolls (Beijing time, evening of August 7)
Risk warning: The following is only a review of market information and does not constitute any investment advice.
Core data
Nonfarm payroll change: -23,000, market expectation +80,000, a significant miss, first negative growth since February this year
Unemployment rate: 4.1% (previous 4.2%), superficially decreased; but labor force participation rate at 61.4% continues to decline, indicating labor force exit rather than improved employment
Year-over-year wage growth: 3.2%, wage pressure has eased
Historical data significantly revised downward: May and June combined revised down by **-103,000**, indicating previous strong employment was overestimated
Industry structure
Drag factors: Local education -50,000 (seasonal summer departures), retail -19,000, finance -14,000
Only healthcare, business services, and construction slightly increased, overall expansion is very weak
Two layers of logic behind the data
Employment is indeed cooling down, not just seasonal interference; large downward revisions in the past two months indicate a clear slowdown in US labor market momentum.
The drop in unemployment rate is an illusion: a group of people have directly exited the job-seeking pool and are no longer counted as unemployed, actual employment sentiment is weak.
Wages have not continued to surge, easing labor-driven inflation.
Immediate market reaction
US Dollar Index: short-term plunge and weakening
US Treasury yields decline, September rate hike expectations are directly eliminated, rate cut expectations rise
Gold: short-term violent surge, bullish gold logic (falling interest rates) realized
US stock futures rise; cryptocurrencies rebound in sync, easing expectations benefit risk assets
Implications for the Federal Reserve
This report basically rules out a September rate hike; but it is not yet certain that a rate cut will happen immediately, the focus next is on CPI inflation data.
If employment weakens and inflation falls simultaneously, it will open the window for rate cuts; if inflation remains stubborn, the Fed will remain on hold.
Key points to watch going forward
Next core focus: US CPI inflation data, which will determine the Fed's subsequent path;
Nonfarm payrolls are just a short-term pulse and will not directly change the big trend; subsequent confirmation over 2-3 months of employment data is needed to see if the weakness is temporary or a shift toward recession;
For the crypto market: weaker nonfarm payrolls bring easing expectations which are positive, but coin prices are also affected by regulation and sentiment in capital markets; nonfarm payrolls only affect short-term volatility. $SNDK #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ If Bitcoin goes up, I will find the target price
and then share it, hoping to discuss some parts together, so
Even looking at charts from as far back as 2013,
when the downtrend starts, the daily 200-day moving average is
touched twice,
almost always marking the end of the downtrend.
At the second touch, it then directly skyrockets without limit, followed by
a major correction below the 200-day moving average,
and then another upward pattern.
Of course, there are only 3 samples, so if this is the 4th time,
we can't just say that because the sample size is insufficient. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
$SNDK $SKHYNIX Storage giants' prices have dropped; is this a buying opportunity or a sign of a peak?
First, for SanDisk $SNDK, the stock continued to fall after the earnings release, even though the fundamentals are not problematic and it remains profitable.
The main issue is that future profit expectations did not meet market forecasts. Although there is a $14 billion buyback plan ahead, the market is not convinced.
The market is preemptively pricing in expectations. Later, when memory prices rise only limitedly or gross margins reach or approach their peak,
prices may face a new round of decline according to the current logic.
For SK Hynix, similarly a memory production giant like SanDisk, Morgan Stanley's target price is 260,000 KRW, about a 70% increase.
Meanwhile, SanDisk's target price by Citibank was adjusted from $2,500 to $2,100, leaving some upside from the current price around $1,200 🤔
Looking back at the storage giants' plunge at the end of July, going long then seemed to yield good returns.
The awkward part is that current prices still have room to move either up or down. Previously, a whale shorted SanDisk around $1,300, taking profits between $600-$779; further observation is needed to see if the take-profit price will be adjusted.
The current price collapse is not due to the commonly assumed underperformance or losses, but rather because it failed to meet the market's oversized expectations, leading to the drop. Simply put, future growth expectations still exist but are not as optimistic as the market anticipated 🤔
It is therefore conceivable that when storage prices gradually peak or gross margins approach their peak, a new round of downward adjustment may occur.
This phase might be somewhat similar to Nvidia's consolidation and adjustment period in 2024-2025.
After the market fully digests these expectations, the valuations of SanDisk or SK Hynix will also be very attractive.
Overall, relatively speaking, trying a small long position at the late July lows is advisable, while preparing for the possibility of further declines.
Only when gross margins fall back, expectations are crushed again, and valuations are re-priced by the market should one consider whether it is time to bottom-fish 🤔 Be cautious of risks!
@OKX中文 @OKX星球 @米妮Minnie_OKX @米花Lilac_OKX The US dollar index fell to its lowest level since May, while gold surged 2.26% in a single day, and risk assets were celebrating. But $BTC only rose 1.06%, $ETH barely +0.81%, as if the crypto market was being slowed down. Is it that funds haven't woken up yet, or is it the caution before the storm? Outline - 📉 Why did the US dollar suddenly collapse? - 💰 Where did the money flow: Gold surges, risk assets laugh secretly - 🔍 The crypto market's "calm": BTC and ETH follow the rise moderately, where's the hotspot? - 🚀 Hot Tokens: What Are SNDK, SPCX, and BICO Trading Volume Trending About? Today's snapshot $BTC 64,870, +1.06% $ETH 1,914, +0.81% $QQQ +1.17%, $SPY +0.61% $DXY -0.36%, $GLD +2.26% $IBIT +0.85% VIX 14.89, -1.65% US Crude Oil (USO) 117.98, -0.75% 1. Why did the US dollar suddenly crash? 📉 Today, the US dollar index $DXY plunged 0.36%, closing at its lowest level since May. The trigger was the unexpected weakening of U.S. labor market data, prompting traders to quickly lower their bets on Fed rate hikes. Rate hike expectations are like a stretched rubber band—once released, the dollar falls freely. Meanwhile, the VIX Fear Index fell to 14.89, with risk appetite clearly rebounding. The market is beginning to price in a more accommodative future: rate hikes and a quick endingYesterday, the overall crypto market warmed up, with $OKB rising nearly 6% within 4 hours, pushing the price close to $90. However, looking at the US stock storage sector, the scene is completely different.
On August 7, $MU closed down about 0.4%, $SNDK fell about 3.6%, and the storage sector as a whole remained weak.
More interestingly, a few days ago on Hyperliquid, 7 addresses collectively went long on MU and SNDK for nearly $30 million.
At that time, there were no large short positions of the same scale, but the image content shows that 5 of those addresses were already at a floating loss. This means the capital direction is highly consistent.
Bitcoin has currently retaken the $64,800 level and recorded gains, but capital has not simultaneously bought all the “high elasticity assets.”
Crypto is rebounding, while storage stocks continue to digest earnings and expectation pressures, indicating that funds are rapidly rotating between different sectors rather than simply “all risk assets rising together.” 美东时间8月7日收盘（北京时间8月8日早间），全文侧重存储产业链解读 一、隔夜美股总览 三大指数全线收涨，纳斯达克综合指数领涨1.30%。核心驱动来自晚间公布的7月非农就业数据大幅不及预期，就业市场降温显著缓解美联储加息压力，美债收益率快速下行，高估值科技成长股迎来估值修复。道指涨幅相对收窄，主要受传统工业、金融板块拖累。 • 道琼斯工业平均指数：+0.28%，收报54036.93点，单日上涨151.83点 • 标普500指数：+0.62%，收报7757.64点，单日上涨47.68点；十一大板块八涨三跌，材料、可选消费领涨，能源、通信服务小幅收跌 • 纳斯达克综合指数：+1.30%，收报26690.62点，单日上涨342.26点，AI科技龙头普涨带动指数走强 • 恐慌指数VIX：回落至15.15，市场避险情绪明显降温 • 成交特征：大盘尾盘放量拉升，科技成长股成交显著放大；存储板块日内宽幅震荡，早盘随大盘冲高，午间受行业涨价预期收窄消息影响回落，最终走势分化。 盘面核心特征：宏观利好驱动大盘整体反弹，但板块内部分化明显。大型科技股受益于利率下行预期领涨，存储板块则因自身产业周期预期调整Rocket $SPCX, before the sale, everyone knew that a large number of shares were waiting to be unlocked, including you and me. This is the reason why the unlocking was priced in as negative news in advance, and it is also one of the reasons why there was no significant crash after this unlocking.
As for the rise, due to the price plummeting at the initial stage of the sale, shorts aggressively acted. Now the rise is forcing shorts to buy in for delivery, resulting in the price hovering near the sale price after about a 16% rally.
Personally, I think that due to the continuous unlocking of shares in the upcoming market, pressure will persist for a long time. Even if there is a short-term squeeze to realize profits, it will be difficult to sustain. More likely, there will be oscillation and bottom-finding. As for another surge, it seems unlikely to happen recently without significant positive news.
Pure beginner, analysis dimension is relatively simple, does not constitute investment advice. $SNDK dropped from 1329 to 1186, and I bottom-fished at 1212
On the third day after the earnings report, SanDisk is still digesting that sell-off. It only stopped falling after dropping from 1329 to 1186, a decline of over 10%. I have previously shorted and gone long, and after being repeatedly taught by the market, I opened another long position at 1212 early this morning. The logic is actually very simple—the drop from 1329 to 1186 was too fast, and after a 30-minute volume spike selling down to 1186, it immediately bounced back above 1200, a clear signal of an oversold rebound. Also, 1186 is just above the low of 1167 from the day before yesterday, and it hasn’t broken that level twice.
It’s the fourth day after the earnings report, so the market should have finished digesting it. Revenue was 8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year; data center revenue was 2.98 billion, surging nearly 13 times; gross margin was 84.6%. Five new long-term contracts signed cover half of the 2027 shipment volume. The only issue is the slightly weak Q1 guidance, which institutions took advantage of to sell off. Currently, analysts have 9 buy ratings, 2 hold, and 0 sell; Evercore raised the target price to 2800. Of course, analyst opinions are just for reference, but at least the fundamental direction is clear.
I personally opened a 0.02 lot long position at 1212 and currently have a small floating profit. The position size is small because I won’t heavily leverage with 50x margin. The short-term resistance is between 1220-1230; if it can hold above that, I will consider adding to the position. If the support zone of 1167-1186 breaks, I will exit. This kind of stock makes you doubt life when it falls, and when it rises, it can happen in minutes.