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当加密市场苦于等待下一个大叙事的时候，反观黄金，它的故事一直在持续发酵。 美股靠AI、航天、光通信不断制造新热点，加密市场在旧叙事耗尽之后陷入存量博弈，唯独黄金，不需要颠覆式创新，依靠宏观现实，持续吸引场外增量资金进场。 支撑黄金的，是两套长逻辑叠加短期催化。 第一是去美元化的长期趋势，全球央行持续增持黄金储备，把黄金当做资产安全的压舱石，这个大趋势不会因为短期涨跌而轻易改变。第二是地缘冲突常态化，世界不确定性增加，每当局势紧绷，避险资金第一选择就会流向黄金。再加上美国就业数据走弱，市场开始交易美联储降息预期，多重力量一起推着金价不断走高。 但热闹背后，要分清什么是长期逻辑，什么是短期情绪。 现在金价处在历史高位，连续快速拉升之后，超买已经十分明显。很多人看见一路上涨，害怕踏空，冲动追进去。可黄金不是只会单向上涨，一旦通胀数据超预期、美元再度走强，一轮深度回调随时会到来。 很多人有一个误区：看好黄金长期，就等于任何位置都可以重仓进场。其实不是。央行买黄金是做底仓配置，拿的是数年周期，能扛住20%级别回撤。普通散户如果抱着短线暴富心态高位冲进去，一次回调就容易心态崩盘Changle No.1 · New Version of Altcoin Short Selling Launched | Full Network Scan + Funding Rate/Long-Short Ratio Dual Congestion Signals
Purely real records, not stock recommendations or investment advice. Small capital real trading tracking and verification in progress, data continuously updated.
1. Current Status (August 8, 19:11)
Changle No.1 has been revised from BTC/ETH dual coins to [Full Network Scan Altcoins · Pure Short Selling] V3.0, now online in observation mode (analysis only, no orders placed).
This round selected 7 short signals, all daily bearish + retail crowd congestion tops:
TSLA(76), TRUMP(76), MU(70), SKHYNIX(68), HYPE(65), WLD(62), DRAM(62)
2. What Changed
· Coin selection: screened from 438 USDT perpetual contracts across the entire market, with trading volume >3 million, excluding mainstream large coins, only retaining daily bearish altcoins
· Added funding rate: positive rate = long crowd congestion favorable for shorting, negative rate = short crowd congestion veto
· Added long-short ratio: the crazier retail longs (higher long-short ratio) the more favorable for shorting — smart money goes contrarian
· Risk control: 10x leverage, 3% per position, max 10 positions, 3% stop loss, extreme diversification to prevent single coin liquidation
3. Strategy Core (Review)
Trend-following short + dual congestion confirmation. Short only in altcoins where "daily has turned bearish + retail is still greedily long" — places where long leverage clusters, bubble pressure to fall is greatest. No counter-trend, no chasing highs, no bottom fishing.
4. Honest Words
This revision learned from the old version’s lessons: old version’s 2% take profit was too narrow and got repeatedly stopped out by trend fluctuations, fixed dual coins were too concentrated. New version uses multi-coin diversification + congestion signals instead, but observation period signals have not yet been market-verified, the 7 signals are only "logically consistent," not guaranteed profitable. Current samples are all highly congested stock-like tokens (TSLA/TRUMP/SKHYNIX/MU), market chose so, recorded truthfully.
5. Next Steps
DRY_RUN observation for a few days to verify the real hit rate of these congestion short signals. When signals are continuously stable, switch to real orders, data continuously updated.
Trading involves risks, enter the market cautiously. This is just my experimental record. Manually opened BICO positions, feeling rough... $TSLA $TRUMP $MU I took back the BICO long position at 16:11, and this hour it retraced from +7.73% down to +2.79% — this altcoin flips faster than turning a page.
BTC stuck at 65,018 (+0.08%) all day with no movement, volume shrank by -81.6%, Funding +0.0065% neutral, OI steady at 107,200, Fear index 30.
The most exciting capital flow: BICO flipped from +5.5% to -3.88% (Binance -3.69%), solo dancing last hour, this hour it gave back gains.
Leadership change: On-chain US stock XSPCX took over with 24h +14.05%, major coins all zombie-like, real volatility only in US stock tokens.
Money moved from altcoins to on-chain US stocks, while the major market remains motionless — this is not an incremental bull market, but reallocating existing funds.
Self-mock: My XSNDK short (2x) is still floating at a loss of -0.24%, both longs and shorts are just practice.
Real review: BICO still holding +2.79% without running, the altcoin one-hour party ending signals group breakdown.
Takeaway: Watch rotation, not just the index; altcoins shifting from leading gains to leading losses tells you earlier than any indicator that money is pulling out.
Do you dare to catch the dip on BICO’s current pullback? If yes, comment your reasons; if not, share what you’re afraid of, don’t just lurk.
Crypto assets are high risk, this article is not investment advice, purely personal opinion.
$BTC $BICO #OKX星球 #币种异动 #资金搬家August 8, 2026, SOL dollar-cost averaging day 35.
Current holdings: 138.18889385
Final holding target: 1000+ units
Expected price target: 500U+
No trading, no all-in, just dollar-cost averaging, no hiding, no acting, full record
#SOL #定投 #实盘 #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $ONDO project team's revenue is stable, but token holders only have voting rights, and there are large token unlocks every year which may cause significant selling pressure. Recently, internal disputes have erupted! I really hope the project team can plan properly 😅
Ondo Finance (Token: ONDO), as a leading project in the crypto market's **Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization** sector, has always attracted high market attention. Below is a technical analysis and future development assessment of Ondo's current status:
1. Technical Analysis Status
From the current mid-term and short-term chart structures, ONDO shows the following technical characteristics:
Overall Trend (Mid to Long Term):
Consolidation Bottoming / Correction Phase: After reaching a high, ONDO has entered a mid-to-long-term retracement and bottoming phase. Currently, technical indicators across multiple timeframes (weekly, monthly) are in a cautious or pressured state.
Token Unlock Pressure: The market needs to pay special attention to its token release schedule. Due to initially low circulating supply, subsequent unlocks increase market circulation supply, creating implicit long-term overhead pressure technically.
Key Levels and Indicators:
Key Support: Recent psychological and technical strong support lies in the $0.30 - $0.35 range (breaking below may seek previous lows).
Key Resistance: The first strong resistance above is at $0.50 - $0.60 (an area with a large accumulation of trapped tokens and moving average convergence).
Momentum Indicators (RSI / MACD): Daily RSI and MACD have repeatedly consolidated at low levels, indicating bulls have not yet shown strong breakout signals, with the current focus on range-bound consolidation and digesting selling pressure.
2. Future Development and Potential Advantages
Ondo's core value comes from bringing traditional finance (TradFi) assets (such as US Treasuries, money market funds) onto Web3 chains:
1. Absolute Leader in the RWA Sector:
Its products like USDY (interest-bearing USD token) and OUSG (short-term US Treasury token) provide the crypto market with compliant, fixed-income on-chain capital safe havens.
2. Top-tier Institutional Support and Compliance Advantages:
The Ondo team has investment banking backgrounds (e.g., Goldman Sachs) and has received investments from top institutions like Founders Fund and Coinbase Ventures. Its compliance framework is among the top tier in US stock/US Treasury tokenization.
3. Ecosystem Expansion (Ondo Global Markets & Ondo Chain):
Ondo is pushing to bring traditional US stocks and more financial derivatives on-chain, advancing a compliance-dedicated chain (Ondo Chain) and cross-chain infrastructure, aiming to unlock liquidity of tokenized assets across DeFi protocols.
3. Potential Risks and Challenges
1. Token Value Capture:
ONDO currently mainly serves as a governance token. Whether growth in protocol asset management scale (TVL) can directly translate into real demand and empowerment for ONDO tokens remains a key market question.
2. High FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) and Unlock Selling Pressure:
ONDO has a total issuance cap of 10 billion tokens. In the coming years, token unlocks for the team, investors, and ecosystem funds will significantly increase actual market supply.
3. Direct Competition from Traditional Financial Giants:
As traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton accelerate their layout in the RWA sector, Ondo will face competitive pressure from these institutions entering the space directly.
Summary and Recommendations
Short-term Trading: The technicals are currently in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to observe whether the $0.30 - $0.35 key support zone can hold effectively and show bottoming rebound signals; avoid chasing prices blindly.
Long-term Positioning: Ondo's fundamentals are very solid and it is an indispensable asset in the RWA sector. Long-term investors should focus on token unlock schedules, progress in traditional regulatory frameworks, and whether Ondo can empower the token with more real yields. 🇺🇸 MACRO NEWS
Trump Media just pulled out of crypto, canceling the $CRO treasury deal with Crypto.com
Another blow to the "treasury boom" that once lifted the entire market. $CRO dropped -3.6% today, -5.4% this week, and Trump-adjacent tokens like $TRUMP, $WLFI (currently at bottom territory, -84% from ATH) are losing momentum.
At the same time, the U.S. Treasury expands sanctions on Iran, targeting two exchanges related to $USDT liquidity — short-term liquidity risk, but pushing more funds into "clean" institutional assets like $XAUT/$PAXG and privacy coins like $ZEC.
Forecast: political meme tokens will continue to face pressure, tokenized gold and privacy coins will keep attracting defensive flows, and $BTC is unlikely to break out in the short term.
What do you think, is Trump Media's "retreat" bad news for the whole market or just a political bubble popping in the right place?
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus The Coldcard vulnerability losses are still expanding, affecting about 4,500 addresses with a total close to $89 million. But the most noteworthy issue is not the numbers, but that the problem lies in the moment the wallet generates the mnemonic.
Many stolen wallets were never connected to the internet, and the devices were not taken. The old Coldcard firmware had insufficient randomness when generating seeds; some Mk3 firmware versions may have only about 40 bits of entropy left, while some older versions of other models have about 72 bits, whereas the target should be at least 128 bits. Attackers only need to know the pattern of seed generation in the old firmware, repeatedly calculate possible seeds and derive addresses, and when they find one with a balance, they directly obtain the private key.
Therefore, upgrading the firmware does not save old wallets. The official fix released on July 31 only addresses new seeds going forward; the private key space was fixed at the moment the old mnemonic was created, and upgrading will not increase randomness.
Many people understand cold wallet security as the private key not being online, which is correct, but that only solves how to store the key after generation, not how the private key is generated. If the random number generation phase is flawed, then even offline storage is just safeguarding a key that is easy to guess. All these on-chain transactions are legitimate; the blockchain cannot verify whether the key was computed. Not your keys not your coins addresses exchange risks; this time the warning is that risks do not disappear after self-custody, they just become trusting that the entire process has no vulnerabilities. How those 24 words are generated is as important as how they are protected.
#Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 Why am I bearish on ETH? Say something human
First quote: Currently, ETH is around $1,900, with a high point of over 4,900 last year, and it has already been cut off. But I don't think it's over yet. Here are a few reasons that even beginners can understand:
1. The "Deflation Myth" is broken
The biggest story of ETH in the past was "destruction > output = less and less = more and more valuable". What about now? L2 has lost all the fees. It only takes 0.22 ETH a week to destroy, and it hasn't been pledged yet. The annual supply is still increasing by 0.85%, and deflation has turned into inflation. The story cannot continue.
2. Compared to BTC, ETH is a brother
The ETH/BTC ratio has hit a new low in several years. The meaning is that for cryptocurrencies, funds are more willing to buy BTC rather than ETH. The position of the second is getting more and more unsteady.
3. The big man is running
Spot ETH ETFs have been continuously experiencing net outflows, and institutions are voting with their feet. With such high yields on US bonds, isn't it good to make 5% profits while lying down? Why take the risk of a 2.6% pledge return? Smart money has gone to a safer place.
4. The technical side is unsightly
2000 The knife did not pass twice, forming a double top. Now it's in the downward channel, and once it breaks through the key support, it's down to 1600 or even 1500. When the lever plate explodes, there is no bottom to step on.
5. Stablecoins are withdrawing
USDC's stablecoins continue to flow out of exchanges, indicating that the entire market is getting fewer bullets. There's no water. How does the boat float?
In summary, it's not that ETH is going to zero, but rather that there is no strong logic of an increase in the short term. The narrative is broken, funds are withdrawn, and technical aspects are broken. Under the triple pressure, shorting has a higher winning rate than longing.
⚠️ The above are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Contract risks are high, novices should not touch high leverage.$ETH Today is the weekend. Originally, last night's non-farm payrolls were quite respectable — expected +80,000, actual -23,000, employment directly turned negative. According to the old script, BTC should have soared along with gold.
So what happened? Today is Saturday with dry liquidity. $BTC tried three times last night to break through the 65,000 barrier but failed. Today it simply laid flat, hovering between 64,000 and 65,000 all day, with volatility less than 1%. Even holding 100x leverage contracts, there was no sense of movement...
Gold surged 2.5%, while BTC seemed muted as if someone hit the mute button.
It’s not without reason. On weekends, the Asian and US markets are closed, and market makers don’t want to waste bullets at this point. The positive non-farm news is put on the table, waiting to see who picks it up on Monday.
If it stays sideways, so be it. At least it’s not a sudden spike, which is better than erratic moves. I’ll keep holding my short positions and see how things develop 闪迪交出了一份让所有空头闭嘴的成绩单，营收冲到89.7亿美元，环比暴增51%，同比更是夸张的372%。毛利率84.6%，每股收益39.25美元，每一项数字都在挑战想象力的上限。但市场就是这么不讲道理，财报越亮眼，盘后股价反而砸得越凶。这不是闪迪不行了，而是AI赛道玩家的胃口被撑得太满。单纯超预期已经不够，市场要的是超超预期，要的是未来每个季度都能拿出更恐怖的斜率。 把视角拉回币圈，同样的戏码每天都在上演。$BTC 在65,000美元附近反复摩擦，$ETH 趴在1,922美元喘气，看似平静的水面下全是预期博弈。AI叙事确实给存储板块带来了真实需求，闪迪的暴增业绩就是铁证，但當好故事已经被所有人讲了一遍，边际增量就成了唯一能刺激盘面的东西。那些打着AI旗号的存储类代币，比如做去中心化存储的项目，短期或许还能借着这股风反复活跃，可一旦大盘缩量或者某家巨头财报翻车，回调幅度不会比闪迪这一跌温柔多少。 现在的市场处在一个尴尬的甜蜜期，基本面在改善，但价格已经把改善提前定价。闪迪用372%的同比增速换来一根阴线，这说明资金不傻，它们只愿意为预期差买单。 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ ##Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes
As the weekend arrives, BTC and ETH start to trade sideways again. $BTC $ETH
BTC fluctuates around 65000 repeatedly, ETH surged to 1944 and then returned to the 1910–1920 range.
With US stock markets and spot ETFs closed over the weekend, institutional incremental funds are temporarily absent; the sentiment from Friday's nonfarm payrolls has already been traded through once, and the market is now waiting for next week's CPI, so both bulls and bears are reluctant to push aggressively in the middle of the range.
This nonfarm payrolls report indeed impacted the upward momentum.
US July nonfarm employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, while the market originally expected an increase of 80,000; at the same time, data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 103,000.
With employment clearly cooling, the market quickly lowered expectations for the Fed to continue raising rates in September, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall, and risk assets to rebound overall.
BTC therefore surged to around 65300, and ETH also climbed to 1944, helped by market sentiment and short covering.
However, the weak nonfarm payrolls is not purely a one-sided positive.
On one hand, it reduces pressure for further rate hikes; on the other hand, the employment turning negative increases market concerns about economic slowdown. Coupled with still elevated inflation and the upcoming CPI release next week, it remains uncertain whether the Fed will truly pivot.
So after the positive news pushed prices to resistance levels, subsequent buying did not continue.
BTC failed to hold above 65300, ETH did not break through 1930–1945, and profit-taking began; entering the weekend, ETF funds temporarily paused, and the market naturally retreated back into the original range.
Key points to watch next:
✔ BTC holds above 65300, ETH breaks through 1945, continue to target 1960–1980
✔ BTC falls below 64000, ETH likely retests 1900–1890
✔ ETH loses 1890 support, look further down to 1870–1880
Currently, it still belongs to a range recovery supported by funds, and a new round of rally cannot yet be confirmed.
Nonfarm payrolls gave the market a boost, but resistance was not broken, so the rally returned to the parking lot.
Now 1910–1920 is right in the middle of the range, with resistance above for longs and support below for shorts, making the risk-reward ratio unfavorable.
Weekends are the easiest time to get restless during sideways trading, but what really should be done now is to wait for the right position, not blindly enter the market just for the sake of participation.SanDisk sndkusdt
- Monday (8/4): Violent rebound after earnings beat expectations, closed at 1427.62 (+10.8%), but volume was insufficient, showing initial capital divergence
- Tuesday (8/5): Rallied then fell back, closed at 1350.5 (-5.4%), institutions began lowering target prices, sentiment turned cautious
- Wednesday (8/6): Volume surged with a sharp drop, closed at 1258.58 (-6.81%), turnover reached 24.2 billion, the second highest recently, panic selling emerged
- Thursday (8/7): Continued decline, closed at 1212.21 (-3.68%), retraced about 48% from June highs, approaching technical oversold territory
Key characteristics: Earnings beat expectations but faced "good news sell-off," weekly candle closed with a long bearish shadow, forming a typical Davis double kill (valuation kill + sentiment kill).
II. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow Analysis
Sentiment Indicators
- Panic Index (VIX) surged 28% this week, storage sector became the core of volatility, SanDisk single-day amplitude sustained above 10%
- Options Market: Put/Call Ratio (PCR) rose to 1.78, a 3-month high, bearish sentiment reached extreme levels
- Social Media: Shifted from "AI storage super cycle" to "cycle peak" and "inventory backlog," pessimistic narratives dominate
Capital Flow
- Institutional Funds: Goldman Sachs and Bank of America maintain buy ratings, but Jefferies cut target from 3000 to 1750, Citi from 2500 to 2100, cuts exceed 15%, showing concerns over price increase slope
- Insider Trading: Executives net sold $9.99 million in past 90 days, on 8/3 director Bernard Shek sold 600 shares, signaling caution
- Quantitative Funds: Passive index funds continue to reduce holdings due to S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 weight adjustments, intensifying short-term selling pressure
- Smart Money Signals: From 8/6 to 8/7, signs of institutional bottom-fishing appeared, giants like BlackRock and State Street slightly increased holdings, attempting to build new positions around $1200
III. Next Week’s Trend Projection (Three Scenarios)
Base Scenario (70% probability): Consolidation bottoming + weak rebound
- Monday: Inertia-driven dip tests strong support at $1150 (50% retracement of June uptrend), if held, triggers technical rebound
- Tuesday to Thursday: Oscillate between $1150-$1280, volume gradually shrinks, bears weaken, bulls attempt to organize counterattack
- Friday: May close with a small bullish candle, weekly candle forms a doji with a long lower shadow, laying groundwork for subsequent rebound
Core Logic: Current valuation has priced in some cycle concerns (PE down to 16.4x), but AI storage demand remains, $14 billion buyback plan provides support; meanwhile NAND price growth slows but enterprise SSDs remain tight, fundamentals intact.Capital turnover in the $CRCL range of $60 to $63 reflects a chip rotation, with the core conflict being the game between traditional capital's long-term pricing of on-chain dollar settlement channels and the short-term risk of shrinking interest rate spreads.
The market shows spot turnover support near $63, with mid-to-long-term funds showing signs of accumulation at this level. Derivatives and capital flow indicate the market is repricing Circle's financial infrastructure attributes, but the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations still suppress reserve income.
The priority driven by capital flow is as follows: opening traditional financial channels under the national trust bank license framework, expanding USDC's on-chain liquidity network effects, and changes in reserve asset interest income. Rate cuts directly narrow reserve spreads, but the depth of access to capital channels determines the upper limit of the valuation midpoint.
The bullish scenario is based on the assumption that the price stabilizes above $60 and on-chain settlement volume continues to grow. The trigger condition is institutional funds completing turnover and forming support in the $60 to $63 range. The variable to watch is the daily average on-chain dollar settlement flow; falling below $60 invalidates this scenario.
The bearish scenario is based on the Federal Reserve rate cuts causing a significant reduction in reserve interest income and interbank competition eroding spreads. The trigger condition is a faster-than-expected narrowing of net interest spreads. The variable to watch is changes in reserve yields; if non-interest income is expanded through bank licenses, this bearish scenario is invalidated.
The overall logic fails if the stablecoin regulatory framework turns unfavorable or competitors cut off its network effects. If the value of the underlying settlement channel is weakened, the current chip accumulation will lose support.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on the net capital flow of $CRCL near the $60 threshold, as well as the on-chain dollar settlement scale and the outcome of the game with Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克"US Stock Market High-Level Volatility and BTC Key Level Battle: Dissecting the "Double Bet" Logic of Institutional Funds"
1. Macro Mirror: "Capital Diversion" in a High-Interest Environment
US Stocks: Defensive and High-Valuation Game
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq maintain volatility at high levels, with sticky long-term US Treasury yields putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. Capital is gradually shifting from small-cap high-risk targets to Big Tech with strong cash flow and high-dividend sectors, showing a clear defensive rotation.
Crypto Side: Institutional Accumulation and Retail Cautiousness
Compared to cautious and watchful retail sentiment, the spot ETF channel continues to record net capital inflows. This indicates that traditional compliant institutions view the current consolidation range as a phase value bottom for medium- to long-term allocation, forming a pattern of "retail hesitation, institutional accumulation."
2. What New Strategies Are Institutions Playing?
The previous simple linkage of "US stocks surge = crypto market surges blindly" has been broken. Institutions are adopting more refined hedging allocation strategies:
1. US Stocks for Defense: Focus on deploying cash-rich tech giants (Big Tech) and high-dividend value targets to provide stable base returns.
2. Crypto for Offense/Hedging: Reduce exposure to long-tail high-risk altcoins, concentrating risk budgets heavily on BTC/ETH spot and derivatives to capture volatility premiums.
3. US Stock Crypto Concept Stocks: Use targets like MSTR, COIN to connect traditional US stock accounts with crypto asset returns, achieving two-way arbitrage.
📌 Core Investor Focus Today
Technical Battle: BTC needs to break and hold the $65,000 - $65,600 resistance zone with volume to establish a new upward channel; $63,000 below is a strong short-term support.
Macro Disturbances: Closely watch upcoming PCE/CPI inflation data and oil price trends, which determine the Fed's rate cut window and liquidity release pace. #Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative, CPI becomes key to rate hikes Nonfarm payrolls surprised on the downside, but the market is really trading on the Fed's next move.
July nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, far below market expectations, while May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000, indicating the US labor market is cooling rapidly.
But here is a detail: the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%, not because the economy is strong, but due to a decline in labor force participation. Simply put, the US job market is not suddenly improving, but gradually losing momentum.
The biggest significance of this nonfarm report is that it sends a signal to the Fed
- The pressure to maintain high interest rates is easing.
The biggest market contradiction in the past was that inflation wouldn't come down, so the Fed dared not cut rates; but once employment started to deteriorate, the Fed couldn't continue to strongly suppress the economy.
Now the balance is shifting.
If next week's CPI continues to cool, expectations for a policy shift in September will further rise, and the dollar and US Treasury yields may come under pressure.
For the market
$BTC is slightly positive in the short term. Bitcoin essentially thrives on liquidity; once the market starts trading rate cut expectations, risk capital will flow back, giving BTC a chance for a new round of rebound.
US stocks $SNDK also benefit, especially AI and tech stocks, as high-valuation assets are most sensitive to interest rates. But if subsequent economic data continue to worsen, the market may switch from a "rate cut trade" to a "recession trade."
Gold $XAU continues to enjoy a dual logic: weak employment + rate cut expectations will both drive funds to continue allocating to safe-haven assets.
The above is only a personal opinion, including personal trading position tests, and does not constitute any investment advice! Buying the right coin, holding it for a whole month, watching it stay flat — while $ADA surged nearly 20% in just one week. That’s the current market: $BTC hovering around $64k, more than 48% below its previous peak, but the money flow isn’t standing still — it’s moving very selectively. While small memes like $PONS, $WKC, $HEI are heating up, the privacy group $ZEC (+12%/week) and $XMR are quietly breaking out; conversely, $ONDO and the RWA group are down -10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, $PEPE are in a tug of war.
One perspective says this is smart money rotating — altcoins with their own stories are still winning big. But another view argues that the $ZEC, $ADA wave is just a short-term shift in a market lacking liquidity: until $BTC breaks its peak, altcoins won’t have a strong, sustainable rally.
In my opinion, what matters isn’t the price, but the money flowing into defensive groups — privacy and even gold tokens like $XAUT rising 7%/week. That’s a risk-off mentality, not an altseason. Altseason might not be gone, but fragmented into waves by sector — those who pick the right group win, those holding “good” coins waiting for a big surge might wait forever.
If you could only hold 1 coin until the end of the month, you
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Merit +1, the Senate accomplished a major task before the summer recess, greatly reducing the possibility of a government shutdown on October 1 due to congressional gridlock.
Last year's longest government shutdown in U.S. history is still fresh in memory, so for members of Congress, if they cannot prevent a government shutdown in advance, other matters will be delayed.
This development is an important positive for the Clarity Act itself, meaning the U.S. Senate will have more time to advance the Clarity Act after September 14.
From a macro perspective, the political risk in September is reduced, allowing the market to focus on macroeconomic data, interest rate adjustments, and the midterm elections, thereby reducing one uncertainty! #CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 "Speak only when you have something to say; don't speak just for the sake of it"
📈 Market Divergence Analysis | Gold violently surges to a new high, $BTC shows significant weakness and falls behind
$XAU international spot gold has recently shown a strong one-sided rally. Yesterday, the price surged directly to stabilize above the 4339 USD mark, with a weekly cumulative increase exceeding 7%. This explosive rally has sparked heated market discussion: Has a new super cycle of gold's rise officially begun?
In my view, this round of gold price surge is not merely a short-term rebound driven by technical breakout. Essentially, it is a systemic behavior of global capital collectively shifting to safe-haven assets and reallocating into secure assets. There are three solid underlying logics:
🔹 Logic 1: Weakening US employment supports the core rationale for gold prices amid rate cut expectations
US employment data continues to cool, and a weakening labor market has significantly heightened market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy. Weak employment directly undermines the Fed's confidence to continue raising rates. The US dollar index and real yields on US Treasuries are both under downward pressure; gold, as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, benefits most from a weak dollar plus low real interest rates, providing strong fundamental support.
🔹 Logic 2: Global uncertainty surges, safe-haven buying continues to pour in
Currently, multiple risks coexist including global geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and fiscal deficit pressures worldwide, amplifying demand for safe-haven assets. Buying gold today is no longer just about speculating on price movements; it is more about hedging against currency credit depreciation and economic downturn risks, representing a solid long-term defensive allocation.
🔹 Logic 3: Institutional funds lead the long positions, not retail chasing the rally
From position data, gold long positions are steadily increasing. The main driving force behind this rally is large institutional funds building positions in batches, not retail investors chasing the price. This makes the upward base more solid.
⚠️ Gold Market Risk Reminder
However, one should not blindly be bullish on gold or assume the bull market will last forever. After a short-term continuous surge, market bullish sentiment is overheated. For the rally to sustain strength, two key indicators must be closely watched: Federal Reserve officials' statements and inflation data trends. Once policy expectations reverse, gold prices can easily face a correction to digest gains.
🆚 Horizontal Comparison: Both safe-haven assets, BTC significantly underperforms gold
On the other hand, $BTC Bitcoin shows a starkly contrasting trend, with recent price action clearly weaker than gold.
Although both carry safe-haven narratives, gold has smoothly refreshed a two-month high, while Bitcoin has yet to break out effectively. This divergence plainly reflects capital preference: whenever market panic rises and overall risk appetite contracts, capital's first safe-haven choice is always traditional gold, not crypto assets.
This also clearly indicates that Bitcoin still has not earned safe-haven recognition from traditional financial capital, and the market still views it as a high-volatility risk asset.
💡 Market Summary
This gold surge essentially signals global capital entering a defensive allocation mode; for Bitcoin to return to a strong trend, two conditions must be met: overall market liquidity easing returns and broad market risk appetite improves.
The short-term pattern is very clear: gold maintains a strong main uptrend, $BTC remains weak and volatile, and capital flows have already given the answer.
$ETH #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 🔥There has been progress in the Hormuz negotiations, but has the oil price risk really cooled down?
Let's start with the good news. Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the coordinates of the shipping route, and a new navigation plan is being finalized. Trump also said the talks are "making good progress," and it looks like this global oil lifeline may soon reopen. Brent crude had previously surged due to geopolitical tensions, but as soon as there was news of negotiations, market sentiment has indeed eased quite a bit.
But if you think the oil price risk is just over, that might be a bit naive.
Several key details are worth examining closely.
First, Trump's exact words were "it cannot yet be said that a formal agreement has been reached." In other words, all the "progress" is still on paper, and there is still a distance to go before actual signing. In the Middle East, there are many examples of consensus at the negotiation table falling apart during implementation.
Second, the core disagreements remain unresolved. The U.S. demands free and unrestricted navigation, while Iran wants control and possible "service fees." Iran's deputy foreign minister has even stated that the new route is "different from the past 60 years" and must pass through Iranian territorial waters. What does this mean? It means that even if the strait reopens, the rules of passage will change, costs may be higher, and uncertainty greater.
Third, the Iranian parliament is reviewing a bill to restrict the passage of U.S. and Israeli ships. Taking such action at this critical moment shows that the hardliners in Iran do not buy into the negotiations. While the negotiators are talking smoothly in Oman, the parliament may throw a wrench in the works—this kind of internal and external power play is common in Iran.
So the oil price reaction is quite interesting. When the negotiation news broke, oil prices did fall, but after the Iranian parliament news on August 6, Brent crude rose $3 to $82.49. The market is repeatedly pricing in two scenarios: "agreement reached" and "agreement uncertain."
For the crypto space, the impact chain is as follows:
Smooth Hormuz navigation → oil prices fall → CPI energy pressure eases → Fed rate cut space opens → risk assets benefit. This is the best-case scenario.
But if negotiations collapse or the agreement is poorly implemented → oil prices surge again → CPI overshoots → Fed caught in a dilemma → tech stocks and BTC under pressure. This is the worst-case scenario.
The market is currently swinging between these two scripts, and any new news could tip the balance.
My advice:
Don't rush to go long on risk assets just because you see the words "negotiation progress." Until the agreement is finalized, the geopolitical premium in oil prices will not fully disappear. CPI is coming next week, and if the energy component remains sticky due to previous oil price rises, the Fed's hawkish tone will persist.
BTC is currently at 64,000, lacking catalysts to push higher but supported on the downside, though not strongly. If the Hormuz issue settles smoothly, it counts as a latent positive; if new complications arise, it will be a further blow.
In terms of operations, keep holding your spot positions but don't add more just because of this news. For contracts, be even more cautious; geopolitical volatility is harder to predict than technical false breakouts.
Wait until the agreement is truly signed, ships actually pass through, and oil prices stabilize before making moves. The market never lacks opportunities, but it lacks certainty.
Do you think the Hormuz negotiations will successfully conclude? Let's discuss in the comments.
#霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？ #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
In July, U.S. nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, significantly missing the market expectation of an 80,000 increase. Historical data for May and June was revised down by a total of 103,000, clearly signaling a cooling labor market. CME data simultaneously shows the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropping sharply from 58% to 42%, with easing expectations briefly driving a slight recovery in the crypto market. Although the apparent weakening in employment might dispel rate hike concerns, the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% is merely an illusion caused by a large number of people exiting the labor force. Coupled with Middle East geopolitical tensions pushing up oil prices and persistent inflationary stickiness, the Federal Reserve has already stated that fighting inflation is its primary goal. The upcoming July CPI data will be the sole decisive factor for September's monetary policy. I regularly share market insights on the platform, remain cautious in trading without prematurely betting on policy outcomes, and wait patiently for macro uncertainties to settle and the market to gradually recover.
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
These are my personal views and do not constitute investment advice. The July nonfarm payroll data was as chaotic as a quarrel.
Employment decreased by 23,000, while the expectation was an increase of 80,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 100,000 — the numbers look pretty bad, right? Yet the unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1% because 260,000 people directly exited the labor force and stopped looking for work.
In the same report, some people look at the unemployment rate and say "not bad," while others look at the employment numbers and say "it's a disaster." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 57% to 44%, and U.S. Treasury yields plunged accordingly.
Nick Timiraos from the "New Fed News Agency" put it bluntly: this report basically says nothing; the direction in September depends not on employment but on next week's CPI.
$BTC got excited first, bouncing from the low to $65,300.
My personal feeling: weaker employment cools rate hike expectations, so a short-term breather is no problem. But how long this breather lasts depends entirely on the quality of the CPI. Wash has said before — loose employment is fine, but if inflation is stubborn, hikes will continue. Don't rush to jump in; wait for the CPI to land first. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 Last week he was still being margin called, and this week he dumped 500 million into a secretive company.
Last week, Leopold Aschenbrenner received margin call notices simultaneously from several major Wall Street prime brokers. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, one after another. His roughly $16 billion long-short portfolio was forced to be sold off to Citadel at a discount of over 10%.
A 25-year-old who only started his fund last September, managing about $20 billion, returned 439% in the first half of this year, then lost 67% in July alone.
Normally, what follows would be an apology letter, liquidation, and disappearance.
But on Tuesday this week, he put $400 million into a chip company called Source Foundry, adding to a previous $100 million, totaling $500 million.
This company was only founded in San Francisco in 2025, by Stanford materials scientists Abdulmalik Obaid and Joe Burg, backed by Sequoia. What they want to do sounds quite crazy: bypass ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines and use simpler, cheaper, and faster processes to make advanced chips.
Here’s the interesting part.
What knocked him down in July was exactly the same narrative. His heavy holdings in Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, CoreWeave—all public market targets on the AI computing power chain—dropped over 30% in a month. With nearly 4x leverage amplified, his account went straight to zero. Coincidentally, big short seller Michael Burry just shorted Nebius at $211.77 a few days ago, which was one of his heavy holdings. While he was forced to cover, someone else was opening a position on the other side.
Now he’s changed his approach. The public market has daily quotes, and when prices drop, brokers come knocking. Private equity is different—no daily mark-to-market, no midnight calls demanding more money. The same bet on the AI computing power gap, but placed in a container without visible pricing, won’t get pushed off the cliff from behind.
This is not surrender; it’s moving the position to a place where margin calls won’t happen.
Digging deeper, this money might not be entirely a proactive choice. The fund shrank to about $10 billion, of which $5 billion was already Anthropic’s private equity, which can’t be moved. The rest is being pushed into private equity—call it long-termism if you want, or just going with the flow after liquidity is locked up.
By the way, after Citadel took that batch of chips, the stock fund rose 14.2% in July. What was sold at a 10% discount became profit in someone else’s hands. The real cost of leverage is never about being wrong on direction; it’s about losing the right to wait.
We’re actually familiar with this feeling here too. Bitcoin hovers around 65,000 without moving, implied volatility for the upside is crushed to historic lows, and no one is betting on either end. Many hold positions saying they’re waiting, but really, there’s nowhere else to go for now.
A person who was forced to cut losses last week dares to invest 500 million this week into a company almost no one has heard of. Do you think he truly believes in this path, or is he just finding a corner where he doesn’t have to watch daily quotes?Michael Saylor said something that I think is particularly spot on. He said Bitcoin doesn't need the CLARITY Act; it's the United States that needs it. Whether Bitcoin has this act or not, it keeps running, mining continues, and holding continues. But U.S. institutions can't get in, banks dare not touch it, and funds can only watch.
A vacuum won't stop the industry from developing; it will only push development opportunities elsewhere.
The FTX incident has already proven that this industry needs rules, but Washington has been arguing for three years and still hasn't figured out "who exactly sets the rules." The House passed it over a year ago, and the Senate Banking Committee passed it almost three months ago. The bill is over six hundred pages, plus three hundred pages of amendments, discussed for eleven months, and then? Recess, and they'll talk again in September.
But what if it still doesn't pass in September? The political landscape could completely change after the midterm elections. Lummis also warned that if it drags on until after the elections, legislation could be stalled for up to four years. Four years—three years is already long enough. #CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 $BTC Buying the right coin, holding it for a whole month, watching it stay flat — while $ADA surged nearly 20% in just one week. That’s the current market: $BTC hovering around $64k, more than 48% below its previous peak, but the money flow isn’t standing still — it’s moving very selectively. While small memes like $PONS, $WKC, $HEI are heating up, the privacy group $ZEC (+12%/week) and $XMR are quietly breaking out; conversely, $ONDO and the RWA group are down -10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, $PEPE are in a tug of war.
One perspective says this is smart money rotating — altcoins with their own stories are still winning big. But another view argues that the $ZEC, $ADA wave is just a short-term shift in a market lacking liquidity: until $BTC breaks its peak, altcoins won’t have a strong, sustainable rally.
In my opinion, what matters isn’t the price, but the money flowing into defensive groups — privacy and even gold tokens like $XAUT rising 7%/week. That’s a risk-off mentality, not an altseason. Altseason might not be gone, but fragmented into waves by sector — those who pick the right group win, those holding “good” coins waiting for a big surge might wait forever.
If you could only hold 1 coin until the end of the month, you
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs Geopolitical risks are gradually fading, giving Ethereum a breather window
Tensions in the Middle East continue to ease, the risk of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is decreasing, and the war premium is gradually being stripped from oil prices.
Oil prices are no longer continuously surging, indirectly alleviating global inflation pressure and providing realistic support for the Federal Reserve to avoid further rate hikes, stabilizing the risk asset environment.
Previously, when geopolitical tensions rose, funds immediately fled high-volatility coins, with ETH always being the first to be sold off;
Now, the threat of external black swan events is diminishing, combined with weaker non-farm employment, the macro environment has shifted to neutral to slightly bullish.
From the market perspective, ETH finds support when it falls, repeatedly shaking out short positions. Under the same interest rate environment, compared to the previous 2400 level, the current price offers outstanding cost performance.
The geopolitical negative shackles have been removed, and once subsequent data cooperates, Ethereum's resilience advantage will be unleashed.
Do not blindly chase highs; wait for a pullback to support before considering positioning $OKB Ahhh! 😂🤡😂🤡 I never expected to make this profit, but the ICE and burn event is really top-notch
In the afternoon, I glanced at my OKB holdings, and the unrealized profit doubled, but unfortunately, I can only enjoy a little pork knuckle rice
I should be happy, but I know deep down this has nothing to do with my skills. It's purely riding on the news.
The ICE strategic investment in OKX was officially announced in June, with a valuation around $25 billion. The NYSE parent company and OKX formed a joint venture to bring tokenized stocks and futures on-chain, mainly targeting US users. When this news came out, OKB surged from around 80 to over 120, then later fell back to fluctuate around 90.
On August 15th, there will be a total supply burn event, with 279 million OKB sent to a black hole address, permanently reducing the total supply to 21 million. A significant supply cut, the market expects this to be a locked-in positive.
Looking at the market, the price has already risen quite a bit, so those who chased in have a high cost. The ICE event is indeed a big positive, but the market has already digested it for a while, and the price has factored in the expectations. When the burn actually happens, if it turns into a "good news fully priced in" sell-off, the small profit I have can't withstand a few points of pullback. Realizing profits is what matters.
#VolatilityRadar: Coin movement observation Nonfarm payrolls shocked negative growth, causing a short-term market frenzy, but don't let emotions sway you.
In July, nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, while the expected increase was 80,000, with the data for the previous two months sharply revised downward; The unemployment rate appears to be declining, essentially because many people are directly leaving the labor market, which is an early sign of weakening employment.
Once the data came out, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled rapidly, US Treasury yields fell, and BTC surged from around 64,000 to 65,300 before starting to pull back—a short-term sentiment pulse.
But the Fed's core bottom line is inflation; poor employment does not mean an immediate shift to easing. At the last meeting, three hawkish members already supported rate hikes.
The real decisive point is the July CPI on August 12.
If inflation remains sticky beyond expectations and the Fed still holds interest rate hike options, this wave of bulls can be quickly harvested; Only when inflation clearly declines can expectations for a pause in rate hikes in September materialize.
BTC needs to hold between 63,000–63,400 in the short term to have room for further competition. Only by holding above 64,500–66,000 with increased volume and CPI combined will new opportunities open up.
Nonfarm payrolls are just a temporary getaway; inflation is the core that holds the real power over market trends. #非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes 📊 SpaceX: Shares Unlocked, But the Stock Rallied 6%. What Happened?
The first batch of restricted SpaceX shares has entered the sellable window, with approximately 911.5 million shares potentially available.
The market expected the unlock to create selling pressure.
Instead, the stock jumped around 6%.
At first glance, that looks bullish.
But I wouldn't rush to conclude that the unlock risk has already been fully absorbed.
🧠 What Could Be Happening?
Before the unlock, bearish expectations were already extremely crowded.
High capital expenditure.
Large losses.
A huge number of shares becoming tradable.
That combination gave short sellers plenty of reasons to position for a decline.
But when the unlock actually arrived, the expected selling pressure didn't immediately appear.
Instead:
No immediate selling → price rises → shorts come under pressure → short covering → stop losses triggered → further upside.
That's a classic setup for a short squeeze.
🎯 The Real Test Comes Next
The important question isn't:
“Why did it rise 6%?”
It's:
“What happens when the short covering ends?”
If additional unlocked shares gradually enter the market and the stock starts weakening again, this rally could simply be providing liquidity for sellers.
But if the stock absorbs the selling pressure and continues holding higher levels, that's much more meaningful.
📌 My takeaway:
The 6% move proves that the bears were positioned aggressively.
It does not yet prove that the bulls have won.
The next phase of price action will tell us much more.
#SpaceX #Stocks #Trading #ShortSqueeze #MarketAnalysis #IPO #StockMarket #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound $BTC I believe BTC and ETH have both already hit their bottoms, and from August onwards, they will most likely enter a phase of oscillating upward movement.
Those still stubbornly waiting for the "final drop" will most likely just watch the market pass them by.
Here’s my reasoning: From the market sentiment perspective, the most extreme fear phase of this year’s bear market was actually realized back in February. That level of panic usually marks a phase bottom. Looking at the time cycle, past bear markets typically last about a year at most; BTC has barely had any decent rebound since last October, slowly declining until now, and the short-selling momentum should have mostly dissipated. ETH is even worse, heading south continuously since August, dropping for nearly half a year, entering an accelerated bottom-chasing phase, which actually compresses the space for further decline.
Currently, there is a strong consensus among retail investors who say there will be an ultimate crash in October to November, thinking that will be the bottom-buying paradise—but how many people can accurately predict the bottom? According to the 80/20 rule, the scripts most people are watching usually don’t play out.
So I lean more towards: February was the initial bottom test, and June to July hammered out a solid bottom. This is very similar to the structure in June 2022, when there was a drop followed by sideways consolidation until November before the final bottom was reached. By analogy, the new market cycle could start at any time.
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
$BTC $ETH $BICO $XTER "S&P's surge increases market cap by 2.1 trillion, why are $BTC and $ETH crypto markets stagnant?"
What exactly is the reason that while the US stock market is crazily soaring, cryptocurrencies remain inactive?
I've been closely watching both markets recently. This month, the S&P 500 market cap increased by 2.1 trillion USD, major AI tech stocks continuously hit new highs, yet Bitcoin only rose slightly by 2%, stuck oscillating around 64,600 USD according to Sina Finance.
In my view, the key factor is that all funds have been absorbed by the AI sector.
This round of US stock market gains is driven solely by computing power sectors like Nvidia and memory chips. Institutional funds are confident in AI because it has solid orders and revenue as support, making it highly certain.
A large amount of capital has withdrawn from Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have seen net outflows for several consecutive weeks. The total stablecoins entering the crypto market have also been shrinking, causing a severe shortage of liquidity on exchanges according to Securities Star.
Secondly, US stocks have listed companies' earnings and business revenue as backing, while Bitcoin has no profit or income; its market depends solely on liquidity and sentiment.
As long as off-exchange funds are unwilling to enter, no matter how hot the US stock sectors get, the benefits are unlikely to spill over into the crypto market.
Additionally, the current unclear regulatory environment in the crypto industry and occasional platform security incidents have led many large asset management institutions to remain cautious and avoid increasing their crypto holdings.
When will institutional funds be willing to divert from the AI sector and turn their attention to crypto?
Please share!Dan Bin quietly bought Circle: $CRCL, which might be the most worth researching holding in his portfolio.
Dan Bin's top two heavy holdings are Google and Nvidia, which are easy to understand. One is a platform infrastructure for the AI era, the other is a core asset for AI computing power; TSMC and Micron also belong to the AI upstream.
But Circle is completely different.
A company that issues the USDC stablecoin, why is it part of Dan Bin's portfolio?
Circle should not simply be understood as a "cryptocurrency company."
What is more worth studying is whether it has the chance to become a financial infrastructure company.
If global cross-border payments, digital asset settlement, tokenized securities, and on-chain finance continue to develop, then the real value of USDC may not lie in it being a stablecoin, but in becoming the underlying channel for capital flow in the global digital financial system.
This means the logic of investing in Circle is not simply a bet on Bitcoin or cryptocurrency price increases.
The real bet is:
Will the future global financial system increasingly settle through on-chain US dollars?
This is also why Circle obtaining a banking license is worth attention.
If Circle can further enter the traditional financial system through the national trust bank framework, its connectivity with banks, asset management institutions, payment institutions, and other financial infrastructures will change.
In other words, Circle is trying to move from being a "stablecoin issuer" to a more complete financial infrastructure platform.
The market narrative about Circle was completely different before.
When the stock price dropped to around $63, many investors saw competition, regulatory, and valuation pressures, even starting to doubt Circle's business model.
But if Dan Bin indeed started building a position around this stage, what is truly worth studying is not "how much he bought," but:
What he saw that was different from what the market saw at the time?
This shares a commonality with some of Dan Bin's past investments that seemed "hard to understand":
He doesn't wait for everyone to understand before buying, but bets when the market consensus has not yet formed.
Previously, heavy holdings in Moutai could be understood as a bet on consumer brands and consumer infrastructure; heavy holdings in Apple as a bet on the mobile internet ecosystem; heavy holdings in Google as a bet on the internet gateway evolving further into AI infrastructure.
So now buying Circle, if this logic holds, is a bet on:
Whether USDC can gradually transform from a digital asset into the infrastructure of the global financial system.
But we must stay clear-headed here.
Circle and Google, Nvidia, TSMC are not the same risk level.
The latter already have business models validated over many years, huge revenue scales, and mature industry positions, while Circle is betting on a new financial infrastructure that is still rapidly developing, with ongoing regulatory changes and an unsettled competitive landscape.
Therefore, Circle could be a huge opportunity or a very costly mistake.
And precisely because of this, this investment is worth studying.
If in three years USDC becomes an important settlement layer in global digital finance, then today's market understanding of Circle may still be very rudimentary.
But if stablecoins ultimately fail to form a sufficiently large network effect, or if competitors, regulations, and profit structures change, then the grand story that looks so promising today may not come to fruition.
So, the most important question about this investment is not:
"Did Dan Bin just pick another big winner?"
But rather:
"Is he betting on the next generation of financial infrastructure?"
If the answer is the latter, then Circle might indeed be the most imaginative holding in his entire portfolio.
The market will give the answer in three years.Circle under bearish pressure: forming a bottom in the range or continuing to probe lower?
Recently, the CRCL (Circle) market has been filled with bearish interpretations: Q2 revenue missed expectations, reserve yield declined, analysts lowered target prices, institutions issued cautious ratings... The stock price has been fluctuating around $60, with market sentiment leaning towards pessimism. From another perspective, these concentrated negative messages may not only reflect the fundamentals but could also be a routine operation by institutions to exchange chips by exploiting retail panic. Considering the supply and demand on the order book and the range-bound trend, it currently looks more like a bottom accumulation phase.
1. The underlying logic of bearish sentiment and "missed expectations" in the earnings report
The main bearish points focus on: revenue slightly below Wall Street expectations (about $701 million vs. expected about $717 million), USDC circulation falling back from the Q1 peak, reserve return rate dropping to around 3.5%, and some institutions maintaining low ratings and significantly lowering target prices. These data indeed put short-term pressure on sentiment, and the stock price has retreated accordingly.
But two things need to be distinguished. First, the profit side actually exceeded expectations (EPS about $0.18), USDC circulation still grew about 19% year-over-year to $73.3 billion, on-chain transaction volume increased significantly year-over-year, the company raised its full-year other income guidance, and advanced strategic progress such as the OCC trust license and Arc network mainnet. Short-term financial fluctuations do not equal a collapse of long-term competitiveness. Second, the bearish news concentrated around the earnings window, combined with the stock price dip, is more likely to trigger retail stop-loss and panic selling. This is a common chip redistribution process in mature markets: using sentiment to create a low-price absorption space. Acknowledging the objective existence of short-term sentiment and numerical pressure, but equating these one-time or cyclical factors directly with "long-term bearishness" is not logically sufficient. The core value of the company still depends on stablecoin adoption, reserve management, and new business expansion, none of which are completely negated by a single earnings report.
2. Order book supply and demand and range-bound trend: signs of bottom accumulation
From the order book perspective, selling pressure momentum has clearly weakened. When the stock price repeatedly probes near $60, selling volume fails to expand continuously; instead, there is obvious buying support, with multiple "pin bars" quickly recovering without effectively breaking down. This repeated probing but holding key levels usually corresponds to major players continuously accumulating at low levels rather than trend-driven selling.
In terms of trend, CRCL recently shows a clear $60-$70 range-bound oscillation: every rebound near $70 faces resistance and falls back, while probing near $60 finds support. $60 has become a strong short-term support, and $70 is a clear resistance. Range-bound oscillation itself is a process of sufficient chip exchange. If volume can significantly increase and hold above $70 in subsequent attacks, the original resistance may turn into support, and the market nature could shift from oscillation to upward movement. The current exhaustion of selling pressure plus repeated support confirmation aligns more with bottom accumulation characteristics rather than a one-sided breakdown.
3. Technical scenario reminders under three conditions
1. Volume expands and holds above $70: the original resistance turns into new support; a pullback near $70 can be observed for trend-following participation opportunities, but volume and subsequent support strength need confirmation.
2. Falls below $60 but does not create a new stage low: the area below $60 may become a low-level accumulation observation zone, still within the range's lower boundary layout strategy.
3. Effectively breaks previous lows and continues to make new lows: it is not advisable to rush to bottom-fish; maintain observation first and evaluate after a bottom structure without new lows appears.
The above is only a technical trend logic deduction and does not constitute any investment advice.
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 No matter how bad the CPI data looks, there will be no rate hike. The tech competition between China and the US has reached a critical stage. Unless the US has already gained an advantage, Washington will only manage expectations going forward, showing a tough stance but not taking real action.🚨 WHY THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ MATTERS FOR CRYPTO
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just an energy story anymore. It has become a macro signal that crypto traders should be watching closely.
Why? Because the chain reaction is simple:
🛢️ Hormuz tension → oil prices rise
📈 Higher oil → inflation pressure
🏦 Inflation pressure → fewer expectations for Fed easing
💵 Tighter liquidity → pressure on risk assets
₿ Crypto → volatility rises, especially across altcoins
That’s why every development around Hormuz can quickly affect market sentiment.
The bullish side is just as important.
If tensions ease, shipping risks decline and oil prices stabilize, markets could get relief from fears of another inflation shock. Lower energy costs can support softer inflation expectations, improving the liquidity backdrop for risk assets.
For crypto, that could mean stronger conditions for $BTC first, followed by selective rotation into $ETH, $SOL and high-conviction altcoins.
But there’s a catch. This market is already showing signs of selective liquidity rather than a broad-based altseason. Capital is concentrating in assets with stronger narratives, liquidity and catalysts.
So I’m watching three indicators together:
🛢️ Oil prices
🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury yields
₿ $BTC price action
If oil cools while yields decline and $BTC holds its structure, the setup becomes increasingly constructive.
If Hormuz tensions escalate and oil spikes, expect the opposite: risk-off positioning, higher volatility and weaker altcoin performance.
The next crypto move may not be decided by crypto alone.
Watch the oil. Watch yields. Then watch where the liquidity goes. 👀
⚠️Not financial advice. DYOR.
$SOL $ETH $BTC
#HormuzTalksAdvance
#HormuzDealStillPending
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus Non-farm payrolls are negative, yet some in the Federal Reserve still want to raise rates
US July non-farm payrolls have already dropped to -23,000,
employment is clearly weakening.
But what's more interesting is:
the internal disagreement within the Fed over rate hikes has deepened.
In July's FOMC, the vote shifted from unanimous to 9:3,
with three members calling for a 25 basis point hike.
The biggest market contradiction now is:
Employment weakens
↓
Less reason to hike rates
But
Inflationary pressure remains
↓
Hawks are unwilling to relent
So the real direction will be decided not by non-farm payrolls, but by CPI and oil prices.
If CPI continues to cool down:
BTC, ETH, gold, and tech stocks are relatively bullish.
If CPI rises again:
The positive impact from this non-farm payroll report could very well be reversed. $BTC $ETH I believe both BTC and ETH have bottomed out, and starting from August, they will oscillate upwards.
Those waiting for the final drop will eventually miss the opportunity.
Reason: From an emotional perspective, the extreme panic low of this year's bear market appeared in February, which is a bottom signal.
BTC, SOL, and others have all proven this. In terms of timing, a typical bear market lasts about a year. BTC has been continuously declining without warming up since October 2025.
ETH started its bear trend as early as August, falling continuously for half a year. The acceleration in time has shortened the space. Regarding retail consensus, everyone believes there will be a final drop in October-November, which would be an excellent bottom-fishing opportunity.
According to the 80/20 rule, it is unlikely to follow this script.
I believe the bottom was reached in February, and the absolute bottom was in June-July.
This is similar to the bottom in June 2022, followed by six months of oscillation and an absolute bottom in November, which means the market is about to start soon. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
The nonfarm payrolls just came out, and Wall Street consensus has shifted — nonfarm is a smokescreen, CPI is the decisive factor. Why? Because hawkish voices still persist within the Fed, and rising oil prices further increase the risk of inflation rebounding. Employment can slow down, but as long as inflation remains sticky, the option to raise rates always exists.
Next Wednesday (August 13), the CPI data will be the real judgment day. If CPI heats up again, even with weaker employment, it will be difficult to dispel the Fed officials' calls for rate hikes; only a sustained decline in inflation can confirm that this rate hike expectation has dissipated and that the Fed will not restart the tightening cycle.
For Bitcoin, it is currently at a crossroads of bulls and bears. Nonfarm gave the market a pulse but no direction. $BTC is fighting around $65,000 and needs to hold $65,000 to continue the upward momentum.
Do not be certain of a policy shift based on just one nonfarm report. The market can fluctuate sharply with inflation data at any time. Before the CPI announcement, staying cautious and waiting for clear guidance from inflation might be the more rational choice.$BICO What do you think is the biggest barrier for Web3: wallets, Gas, or cross-chain experience?
Biconomy's direction addresses real needs: hiding complex operations like Gas, signatures, chain switching, and cross-chain processes in the background to allow ordinary users to use on-chain applications more smoothly.
But the core issue now is not "whether chain abstraction has value," but:
Can Biconomy still secure real application usage, and can BICO capture value from usage?
1️⃣ Maximum supply is about 1 billion tokens
2️⃣ Circulation rate is already high; the main risk is not large unlocks but insufficient demand
Competition is also strong: wallets, exchanges, account abstraction, and intent protocols are all competing for entry points. You can focus on a few points:
1️⃣ Whether dApp integration is growing
2️⃣ Whether Paymaster / MEE have real transaction volume
3️⃣ Whether BICO staking forms a closed loop with network usage
4️⃣ Whether BICO's real usage can translate into token demand
This is not investment advice, for project research only.#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？
Gold has surged past $4300, are funds betting on a rate cut or seeking safe haven?
Gold has been hitting new highs these past two days. Don’t assume that just because rate cut expectations have arrived, a bull market will automatically start—I actually think it’s not that simple.
If it were purely a bet on rate cuts, US Treasury yields should have dropped sharply in sync, but in reality, the 10-year yield hasn’t fluctuated much, and the dollar has only slightly retreated. The core driver of this rally is actually global central banks continuously buying up gold plus rising geopolitical risk sentiment; the rate cut expectation is more like a convenient pretext.
Many ask why gold is soaring like this while BTC isn’t following. The answer is straightforward: the two are fundamentally different asset logics right now. Gold is currently playing the role of "safe haven + reserve asset," bought mainly by large, stability-seeking funds; BTC is still tied to risk appetite, with on-exchange funds speculating on small caps and token stocks, and no new inflows are coming in to lift the overall market.
Personally, I believe gold’s current trend isn’t over yet, but don’t use gold’s rise to infer BTC’s market. If risk aversion continues to push gold higher, BTC won’t follow; it might even pull back along with other risk assets. For BTC to really rally, a solid rate cut needs to be implemented and new capital must enter the market.
Which do you prefer to hold now, gold or BTC? According to Reuters, the licensing terms for Kimi K3 from the Dark Side of the Moon require that if users create commercial products based on Kimi K3 and reach a certain revenue scale, the Dark Side of the Moon may demand up to 30% revenue sharing. Additionally, Alibaba plans to adopt a similar revenue-sharing model for large commercial users of the next-generation Tongyi Qianwen large model.
To summarize, recently whether it's ByteDance's views on distillation or not, or the debates about Kimi charging rent or not, and even considering the financial reports and trends of several major US tech companies, it’s clear that the large model competition has entered the next phase.
The era of competing over whose model is stronger is over; now the comparison is about who can better turn the model into infrastructure. Similar to how Microsoft doesn’t make most of its money just from selling Windows, but mainly from enterprise ecosystems like Office, and AWS doesn’t earn most from servers but from developer reliance.
The future of AI, if we see models as operating systems and applications as software ecosystems, actually calls for a lot of rethinking.
If Kimi and Qianwen adopt a revenue share like Unity, that would be a great thing! Previously, China’s main AI advantage was cheap models. The most representative are low-cost, high-performance open-weight models like DeepSeek and Qianwen. Kimi is also considered low-priced; the pricing for Kimi K3 API is roughly only one-third that of the Faber model.
After Chinese companies start abandoning the purely open-source route, then we can discuss who profits once the ecosystem grows. If it remains completely free, undoubtedly developers, cloud providers, and chip manufacturers make money while model companies lose money. It can be said that Chinese model companies have already begun seeking their own "NVIDIA moment."
Laying out the ecosystem in advance, Huang’s strategy is very worth learning from.On-chain indicator: BTC Realized Profit/Loss Ratio.
Simply put:
When the market experiences heavy loss selling, this indicator falls below 1;
When profitable trades regain dominance, the indicator rises above 1.
Today, using a 30-day rolling median to filter out daily noise, let's look at the historical structure.
Historical three bear markets:
After the bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, this indicator went through a recovery phase.
Currently in 2026: Ratio ≈ 0.69
Still in the loss-dominant zone. But notably, the indicator has started to recover from the extreme loss area and shows signs of upward movement.
If one or more signals in the market are at a critical state, everyone should at least pay attention, stay alert, make their own plans, and act according to the plan to avoid regret and panic. On August 4th, $XAU was still hovering around $4077.
Looking at the candlestick chart, it seemed no different from the past two months—oscillating repeatedly between 4000 and 4200, neither rising nor falling, as if dead.
On August 5th, it touched $4179 intraday.
On August 6th, it directly broke above $4300.
A rise of over $200 in three days. Spot gold rose 7.27% in a single week, with COMEX futures quoted at $4400.
Many people were stunned.
"Who is buying? Where is all this money coming from?"
The answer is: no one is buying. No one is selling.
Here’s a counterintuitive truth—
This surge is not due to massive capital inflows but because previous positions were too light.
In recent months, European and American ETFs and trend funds have been continuously withdrawing from gold. The gold price plummeted from the January high of $5595 all the way down below $4000 by the end of June, a nearly 30% retracement, marking the largest single-month drop since 2008.
During this process, two things happened:
First, shorts accumulated more and more. In the ongoing downtrend, CTA trend-following funds kept building short positions, keeping the market’s short positions at a high level.
Second, longs became fewer. Actively managed equity mutual funds’ holdings in the gold sector dropped to a nearly four-year low. Speculative long positions remain historically low.
The market structure became like this: limited selling pressure below, insufficient chasing buying above.
Everyone ran away; no one wanted to buy, and few wanted to sell.
Then, on August 5th, a catalyst appeared.
US July ADP employment data added only 44,000 jobs, far below expectations. Substantive progress occurred in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Two variables changed simultaneously.
Gold broke through $4200—TD Securities had previously clearly pointed out that CTAs needed gold to break $4200 to trigger short covering.
At the moment of the breakout, program trading systems triggered concentrated short-covering orders.
Shorts were forced to cover, pushing prices higher → more shorts liquidated → prices continued to soar.
A classic "short squeeze."
It wasn’t new longs frantically buying but existing shorts lining up to escape.
Data confirmed all this.
CFTC data showed that as of the week ending August 4th, COMEX gold speculators’ net long positions increased by 12,070 contracts to 132,398 contracts.
SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose from 999.02 tons on July 17th to 1014.14 tons on August 5th, an increase of over 15 tons.
This was not a surge of buying but the return of those who had previously fled. The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw a rare large single-day increase in gold positions.
Limited new funds caused a huge price impact.
To be frank:
This gold surge has little to do with fundamentals.
Macro expectations only determine direction—the market structure determines magnitude.
A market where "almost no one is selling below" only needs a little buying pressure for prices to skyrocket.
This is essentially the same as Bitcoin in 2021 and Meme coins in 2024.
It’s not that there’s more money; it’s that no one is selling.
The same story could very well repeat with $BTC.
In recent months, how many have called BTC garbage, a scam, or a dead asset? How many have repeatedly cut losses near 65,000? How many institutions chose to wait and see after the halving?
When everyone is bearish, that "no one is selling" structure may have quietly formed.
Speculative long positions are at historical lows. Short positions continue to accumulate. Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic.
It only takes one catalyst—a Fed rate cut signal, continuous ETF inflows, or simply a technical breakout—for a short squeeze to happen again.
Gold rose $250 in three days.
If BTC does the same, can you handle it?
Of course, to pour cold water—
The single-day gains have already exhausted some short-term momentum.
Gold is more likely to consolidate between $4200 and $4400 in the short term. The next key target is near the 200-day moving average at $4390.
Don’t chase the highs. Wait for a pullback. Cash is dignity; patience is a weapon.
But the big picture is clear—
When an asset is abandoned by everyone, that is precisely when it is most dangerous—for the shorts.
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 💥🔥 WHEN A "SELL-OFF" BECOMES A LAUNCHPAD FOR $SPCX
The market's smooth absorption of 911 million newly unlocked $SPCX shares followed by a price surge of over 6% was a surprise turnaround for many.
Typically, a doubling of circulating supply post-IPO spells a nightmare of massive sell-off pressure;
however, this instance revealed some formidable signals:
Demand outstrips supply: Capital flows snapped up the massive volume of shares hitting the market, demonstrating robust underlying support rather than mere trend-chasing.
Intrinsic value as a launchpad: A staggering 92% revenue growth far exceeding expectations was the key factor. Ultimately, whether dealing with digital assets or tokenized securities, "smart money" gravitates toward enterprises with solid fundamentals and proven growth potential.
The shift in RWA capital flows: Tokenizing shares of major corporations like SpaceX is attracting immense attention, breaking down traditional barriers and opening up entirely new ways to access global assets.
A grueling "stress test" was passed with flying colors, proving that $SPCX possesses resilience that goes far beyond mere numbers on paper.
🧐 What is your take on the potential for capital flowing into these types of Real-World Asset (RWA) products in the near future?US JOBS DATA JUST HIT MARKETS LIKE A TRUCK
July payrolls came in at -23K. The forecast was +80K. That is the worst print we have seen in 2026 so far.
And it gets worse. May and June were both revised down by a combined 103K jobs. That is three straight months of softer numbers and big revisions. The "strong labor market" story is cracking.
Markets reacted instantly.
The DXY dropped hard.
2 Year Treasury yields fell about 8 basis points.
10 Year yields slipped around 6 basis points.
Gold jumped roughly $40.
Nasdaq opened up 0.77 percent.
S&P 500 opened up 0.33 percent.
This is bigger than one bad headline. Three months of weakening jobs and downward revisions are forcing a rethink. If labor keeps cooling, the pressure on the Fed flips from tightening to easing.
What does that mean going forward. Lower rate expectations, a weaker dollar, and more liquidity flowing into gold and crypto. Risk assets get a tailwind if this trend continues.
Bottom line: the labor market is losing momentum fast. If the next few reports confirm it, expect the macro narrative to shift and capital to rotate accordingly.
Watch $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL closely in this environment.
#SpaceXUnlockRebound #AIMemoryStressTest #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes
Promised an increase of 80,000, but ended up decreasing by 23,000
US July nonfarm employment directly turned negative; the market expected an increase of 80,000, but the actual figure was -23,000. May and June data were also collectively revised down by 103,000. The labor market is cooling faster than anyone expected.
Although the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the reason is unusual—264,000 people directly exited the labor force, and the labor participation rate fell to 61.4%, a new low in nearly five and a half years.
Once the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped sharply from 58% to 44%. The dollar plunged, gold surged over 3% to 4371, silver rose over 5%, and all three major US stock indexes rose. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high again.
What about $BTC? It surged to 65300 briefly, then disappeared.
Gold rose 3%, BTC rose 0.75%. The positive news benefited gold and US stocks, but not the crypto market.
In short, the market is betting on "bad news = good news"—poor employment → lower rate hike expectations → risk assets rise.
But here’s a pitfall: poor employment could also mean "the economy is really struggling." Next Wednesday’s CPI is the real test—if inflation continues to fall, a September rate hike is basically off the table; if inflation doesn’t come down, the Fed will be truly stuck between "fighting inflation" and "preserving employment."
My judgment: at the 65000 level, don’t rush to bet on direction. CPI is the real directional button.
Operationally, I will continue to wait and not act before CPI is released; I’ll move once the direction is clear 🫡Elon Musk's rocket dream slapped me hard
-23,000, expected +80,000, off by 100,000. The data for May and June was further revised down by 103,000. The first two months were revised down by 100,000, and this month directly turned negative. Honestly, the cooling speed of the job market is a bit fierce. (The power of capital is still too strong)
But what's even more contradictory is the unemployment rate, which dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Employment is contracting, but the unemployment rate is falling. These two data points together indicate mixed signals. Wage growth has also slowed, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%.
After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped directly from over 50% to about 44%. The market thinks the Federal Reserve can't raise rates anymore.
Then the market reaction was very interesting—not a broad rally, but a split.$AAOI post-earnings momentum for chasing gains shows signs of weakening, with the stock price retreating from a high of $149 to oscillate around $135.63. Directional option Delta sharply declined from over 250K to around 120K, and dark pool chips show clear distribution characteristics in the $135–141 range. Breaking below the key support at $135 will trigger a downward move to seek the pre-earnings support zone at $124. If there is a strong breakout with volume above the $150 resistance, the high-level distribution structure will be invalidated, opening a new round of valuation expansion.
#Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 #西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？"China is crushing us": Hugging Face CEO's warning is actually a good thing
On August 3rd, MiniMax open-sourced the multi-modal model H3. Two days later, the Hugging Face CEO made a statement in an interview that made Silicon Valley a bit uncomfortable: China is crushing us in open-source models.
This is not just a polite remark; it is backed by data. On the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index leaderboard, Kimi K3 from Moonlight Side scored 57 points, ranking third, with only Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol ahead—this is the closest open-source models have ever come to the top closed-source models. Meanwhile, rumors estimate DeepSeek and Kimi's valuations have surged to the 500 billion RMB level, with capital voting with real money.
Looking at these events together reveals an interesting mismatch: American companies are busy making models stronger, more closed, and more expensive, while Chinese companies are giving away the strongest models for free.
In the past two years, the open-source community narrative has been "America builds the wheel, China copies homework." But the emergence of H3 and K3 invalidates this narrative—this time it’s not following but running in parallel, even locally leading. MiniMax's video generation capabilities and Kimi's reasoning scores are both top-tier, and their choice to open-source means they are directly handing the chips to everyone.
For ordinary developers, this is the best news in recent years: the reasoning power of top models is no longer throttled by API pricing, and local deployment options are increasing. For the industry, this is also forcing closed-source vendors to rethink—when free offerings are good enough, the paywall can only get higher.
Of course, the term "crushing" should be questioned. Open-source models have caught up in single-point capabilities, but gaps remain in ecosystem, hardware synergy, and Agent stability—these "invisible engineering" aspects. The HF CEO’s statement is half a genuine sense of urgency and half rhetoric from the open-source camp to gain attention.
But the direction is clear: in the second half of this race, the winner won’t be the side with the strongest model, but the one that spreads capabilities the widest. Open source is the biggest card in China’s hand.This is an article that gold bulls will regret not buying more after reading.
This week, gold surged more than 7 points, nearly $300, and gold bulls are delighted to see the numbers on their accounts soar.
Whether to chase the high has become the most agonizing consideration for gold bulls.
Rashad Hajiyev, founder of Wall Street technical firm RM Capital, drew a gold price technical chart that stunned everyone.
He publicly released an analysis on social platforms: based on the decisive breakout of gold's "bullish falling wedge pattern," he predicts the gold price will soar to $8,000/oz in the first quarter of 2027.
Starting from $4,257, this implies an 87.93% upside.
RM Capital is an investment advisory firm specializing in commodity and other financial instrument market forecasting and technical analysis.
Rashad Hajiyev is the founder and senior analyst of RM Capital.
Hajiyev's analytical style is purely technical.
He does not follow news, geopolitical speculation, or Fed guessing—only chart structures.
He excels at using the falling wedge, a classic bullish reversal pattern, to predict trends and accurately forecast the gold surge in 2025.
Hajiyev has repeatedly predicted silver's catch-up potential through gold-silver ratio analysis on social media—he believes the gold-silver ratio may compress from a high level to around 18, and if gold reaches $6,000, silver could theoretically hit above $200.
This framework of gold leading and silver exploding is attracting increasing attention.
🔥 What does he see this time? Two core judgments
The six-month falling wedge has been broken
Hajiyev points out that gold has just broken out of a bullish falling wedge pattern that lasted six months.
In technical analysis, the falling wedge is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns.
When prices form a series of lower highs and lower lows but the decline slows down, it often means bearish momentum is fading and buyers are quietly absorbing supply.
History is repeating itself, and this time it might be even stronger
Hajiyev's core logic is an analogy: in mid-2025, after 130 days of consolidation, gold broke upward and rose 65% within 157 days.
This breakout pattern is similar but on a more solid foundation.
He is confident in his judgment: I am very sure that the gold breakout in August 2026 will drive the price to double to $8,000 in the first quarter of 2027.
Even a 70% rise would bring gold to $7,000.
Of course, Hajiyev also admits that $4,500 is the first major resistance level.
Only by effectively breaking through this barrier can the path to $8,000 be truly opened.
Commentary: Hajiyev should be a technical expert.
Gold has surged continuously, and from the chart, it looks set to continue rising.
But the reality is that a huge amount of trapped positions have accumulated in the $4,400-$4,500 range, which is real money piled up.
To break through, either these trapped positions must believe gold will rise higher;
or a massive buy order must free these trapped positions.
Gold will most likely challenge $4,400 next week. Do you think it will succeed? $XAU #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #MMT暴涨36％，OKX今天这张涨幅榜很危险 #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 截至北京时间8月8日18点30分，我把OKX公开行情接口里的353个USDT现货交易对拉了一遍。 202个上涨，145个下跌，涨跌幅中位数只有0.24％。BTC近24小时上涨0.19％，ETH上涨0.39％，大盘基本还在原地。今天的热度集中在少数小币和刚上线不久的标的上。OKX公开行情接口 榜首是MMT，近24小时上涨约36.4％，现货成交额约672万USDT。它一度冲到0.2487美元，随后回到0.2255美元附近，距离日内高点已经跌去9％左右。涨幅还挂在第一名，最猛烈的那段却已经过去了。 SLX排在第二，上涨约28.1％。它和MMT的走势不太一样，现价0.097美元，距离0.09747美元的日内高点只差一点，最近几个小时仍在向上试。SLX在7月10日才登陆OKX，平台随后推出了200万枚SLX的闪赚活动，活动在8月5日结束。上市时间短，筹码交易时间也短，平台活动又把注意力集中到它身上，这种币很容易在周末被资金推起来。OKX上线公告 SLX活动说明 BICO排在第三，近24小时上涨约20.4％，现货成交额